Texans

Green Bay Packers at Houston Texans: Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 6 NFL Picks, Packers, Texans

Green Bay Packers (2-3) at Houston Texans (5-0)

I feel pretty much exactly the same way about this one as I did about San Francisco/NY Giants. With the favorite, we are getting line value and the opportunity to fade a public underdog. However, with the dog, we’re getting a team that normally does well in this situation. The difference between these two teams’ yards per play differential is .7. Divide that by .15 and add 3 points for home field advantage and you get a “real” line of Houston -7.5, meaning we’re getting 4 points of line value with the hosts. In spite of that, Green Bay is a public dog because no one believes they’re as bad as their record. As much as I love betting against the public, I especially love betting against public dogs.

I want to talk about the Packers and their surprising 2-3 record. I don’t think they are as bad as their record would suggest. They’ve had bad luck between the replacement officials and the ChuckStrong train. They could be 4-1 right now. I also don’t think they’re as good as the public thinks and nearly as good as they’ve been over the past couple of years. Their major issues are offensively. Their offensive line is a mess. They can’t run the ball and Aaron Rodgers really does seem to miss Greg Jennings, who is out once again for this one. Without the offense they had last year, their defense, which actually has held up alright this year, needs to be relied on more and it’s still not an elite unit capable of that.

However, as I mentioned, we’re getting some good spots with the Packers. Aaron Rodgers is 10-5 ATS in his career as an underdog, including 4-1 ATS as a dog of 3+. He’s 13-9 ATS off a loss, but if you don’t including 2008, his first year as a starter, he’s 9-4 ATS. He’s also 3-0 ATS in his career as a dog off a loss as a favorite. If you include 2006 and 2007, the Packers’ first two years under Mike McCarthy, they are 5-0 ATS in that situation. Meanwhile, teams are 75-44 ATS as dogs before being favorites and the Packers go to St. Louis next week. I also worry about the impact of the loss of Brian Cushing on the Texans’ defense.

This one is actually tougher for me to pick than San Francisco/NY Giants because we aren’t getting as much line value with the hosts, but we’re also getting fewer points with the road team. There’s less of a chance for a cover if the Packers lose. If I did zero unit picks, this would be one, but I’m once again going with the hosts, like I did in San Francisco/NY Giants, for similar reasons. The combination of betting against a public dog and getting significant line value is too much.

The Packers will give this game everything, but so will the Texans, who won’t be sleewalking 2 weeks in a row. In fact, they were probably sleepwalking last week because they were more focused on this benchmark game than the Jets. Teams are 7-14 ATS before playing the Packers since their Super Bowl victory. Finally, I really believe the Packers will be this year’s team that goes from a 1st round bye to out of the playoffs. There’s one every year and it’s hard to believe right now that San Francisco, Baltimore, or New England could be that team. A loss here, dropping them to 2-4 in a loaded NFC, would go a long way towards that end result.

Public lean: Green Bay (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Houston covers)

Sharp lean (15-9 or better in LV Hilton): GB 21 HOU 6

Final update: Sharps like Green Bay, but I’m still not sure.

Houston Texans 24 Green Bay Packers 20

Pick against spread: Houston -3.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Houston Texans: Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#1)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Texans

Last week: 1 (+0)

Record: 5-0

The Texans were sleepwalking last week, but every team has a bad game eventually. What’s important is that they still got the win. They haven’t played a very tough schedule so far, but they’ve blown out all of the expected non-playoff teams they’ve played, except the Jets, by at least 20 point each. They also got an impress win in Denver, against a team I expect to make the playoffs. They’ve got a test this week with Green Bay coming to town and I expect them to pass it with flying colors once again.

Studs

LT Duane Brown: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 30 pass block snaps, run blocked for 8 yards on 2 attempts

TE Owen Daniels: Caught 4 passes for 79 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts on 21 pass snaps, 8.0 YAC per catch, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 8 pass block snaps, run blocked for 15 yards on 2 attempts

CB Brice McCain: Allowed 1 catch for 2 yards on 3 attempts, 1 interception, 1 solo tackle, 2 stops, 1 sack on 1 blitz

CB Kareem Jackson: Allowed 1 catch for 3 yards on 2 attempts, 1 interception, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

LE JJ Watt: 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 2 quarterback hurries on 35 pass rush snaps, 3 batted passes, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops

Duds

C Chris Myers: 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 30 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 31 yards on 15 attempts

RG Antoine Caldwell: Allowed 2 quarterback hurries on 22 pass block snaps, run blocked for 20 yards on 3 attempts

WR Andre Johnson: Caught 1 pass for 15 yards on 5 attempts on 27 pass snaps, 3.0 YAC per catch, 2 drops, 1 interception when thrown to

CB Johnathan Joseph: Allowed 7 catches for 137 yards on 10 attempts, 5 solo tackles

MLB Bradie James: Allowed 2 catches for 24 yards on 2 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

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Houston Texans (4-0) at New York Jets (2-2)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 5 NFL Picks, Jets, Texans

Houston Texans (4-0) at New York Jets (2-2)

Prior to the Jets’ 34-0 home loss to the 49ers last week, one NFL executive compared the Revis injury to any other team losing it’s starting quarterback and he was so right. Without Revis, they can’t do any of the things to normally make them good defensively and for a defensive minded team, that’s absolutely devastating. Without him, they can’t blitz as much as they normally do, which really hurts a team that already ranked 4th worst in the league in pass rush efficiency.

It also hurts their run defense some because they have to play their linebackers and safeties deeper in coverage, rather than stacking the box with Rex Ryan’s signature 46 scheme, as they often do. Normally a good run defense team, this team ranks 30th in the league against the run and don’t expect that to improve much, if at all, without Revis’ presence. And, of course, he hurts the overall pass defense. They currently rank 10th against the pass, but with no Revis, no pass rush, and poor safety play, expect that rank to fall in future weeks.

Offensively, they were already a mess. In his last 3 games, Sanchez is 44 of 101 for 547 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Even with a strong opener factored in, he still ranks 30th out of 32 eligible in quarterback rating. Rex Ryan won’t make the switch to Tim Tebow even though they acquired him for this very purpose and even though he can’t possibly he worse. At least he can run and revitalize this rushing attack some. Plus, as a passer, he actually has a better career QB rating than Mark Sanchez with a lower interception rate and he won the head-to-head matchup last year.

Speaking of that running game, they rank 30th in the league in yards per carry. Shonn Greene is so mediocre and 2nd year back Bilal Powell isn’t much better and isn’t getting enough carries to make any difference. The receiving corps isn’t doing Sanchez any favors either. Santonio Holmes was lost for the season last week from an already thin receiving corps, leaving Sanchez with 2nd round rookie Stephen Hill, 2011 5th round pick Jeremy Kerley, career journeyman Chaz Schilens, and tight end Dustin Keller, who has been limited to 1 catch in 1 game thanks to injury this year. His leading receiver in 2011, Keller might not play in this one either, after missing the last 3. Meanwhile, the offensive line isn’t doing any favors to either their run or pass attack, ranking 27th in pass block efficiency and grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 31st ranked run blocking group. There isn’t a single thing they do well without Revis.

They looked awful last week on the field last week. They turned the ball over 4 times and didn’t force a turnover and averaged just 2.9 yards per play, as opposed to 5.6 yards per play for their opponent, the 49ers. You could have given them 10 quarters and they wouldn’t have been able to score. They have 2 wins, but if you started the season over today, they’d probably finish with the worst record in the NFL.

All that being said, there are so many reasons to bet on the Jets this week. For one, look at the line movement. This line was -4 last week and now it’s -8.5. I know the Jets looked horrendous last week, but that’s one of the biggest non-injury related line movements I’ve ever seen (I know they lost Santonio Holmes, but it’s not like he was a star player or anything). Still, the public is pounding Houston and I love betting against the public, especially on huge leans, which is what this is.

On top of that, the Jets are getting completely shitted on in the media. This is a Monday Night Football game that no one is giving them a chance to even be competitive in. Not only is the mass media normally wrong and over-reactive, the Jets are in a similar situation to before week 1, when they shut up everyone who made fun of them for not scoring a touchdown with the 1st or 2nd team all preseason by dropping 48 on the Bills.

Going off of that, teams are 38-25 ATS off a home shutout since 1989, including 33-18 ATS as a dog and 11-5 ATS as a home dog. Speaking of home dogs, home dogs of 7+ are 98-78 ATS since 2002. They tend to be really undervalued.  Also undervalued are teams coming off a loss of 28 or more. Teams in that situation are 82-55 ATS the following week as dogs. The Titans pulled an upset and the Panthers nearly pulled an upset in this situation in the last two weeks. Meanwhile, the Texans could be sleep walking through this one. The Jets are being made out to be a laughing stock and the Texans are 4-0, with a 3 game division lead, and have a tough contest with the Packers next week, just 6 days after this one, so they probably won’t be 100% focused.

However, I just can’t bring myself to bet on the Jets. It’s a small play and it would be zero unit if I did those, but the Jets are just too horrible. Even though it’s a complete overreaction line, the line is still reasonable. The “real” line, for anyone who knows that formula I keep mentioning, in this game is -7 in favor of Houston. That means we technically get 1.5 points of line value with the Jets, but that’s fully not taking into account how awful they are without Revis. Also, the Texans are probably the best team in the league. Teams this year are 2-2 as 10+ point favorites. The Texans are 2-0. As 7+ road favorites, teams are 1-2. The Texans are 1-0. As road favorites in general, teams are 9-14. The Texans are 1-0. I’m not betting against them.

Public lean: Houston (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if NY Jets covers)

Sharps lean: HOU 13 NYJ 10

Final Pick: Sharps are pretty split, as am I, but I can’t bet on the Jets.

Houston Texans 31 New York Jets 9

Pick against spread: Houston -8.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Houston Texans: Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#1)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Texans

Record: 4-0

Last week: 1 (+0)

Teams this year are 2-2 as 10+ point favorites. The Texans are 2-0. As 7+ road favorites, teams are 1-2. The Texans are 1-0. As road favorites in general, teams are 9-14. The Texans are 1-0. They’ve convincing beaten every team they’ve faced so far and they look like by far the most complete team in the NFL. They had some questions coming into the season, but they appear to be as good as anyone thought they could be.

Studs

LT Duane Brown: Did not allow a pressure on 29 pass block snaps, run blocked for 16 yards on 1 attempt

LG Wade Smith: Did not allow a pressure on 29 pass block snaps, run blocked for 13 yards on 3 attempts

C Chris Myers: Did not allow a pressure on 29 pass block snaps, run blocked for 12 yards on 6 attempts

TE Owen Daniels: Caught 6 passes for 72 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts on 22 pass plays, 5.7 YAC per play

CB Kareem Jackson: Allowed 3 catches for 33 yards on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, and 1 interception

LE JJ Watt: 2 sacks and 1 quarterback hurry on 24 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 assists, 4 stops

Duds

RG Ben Jones: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 21 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 4 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts

ROLB Connor Barwin: 1 quarterback hit on 24 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans: Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, Texans, Titans

Tennessee Titans (1-2) at Houston Texans (3-0)

In my power rankings this week, I poked holes in pretty much every other team in the league. I can’t do that with the Texans. They are without a flaw. Winning in Denver in the high altitude against a talented team and a no huddle offense is damn impressive and 3 games into the season, this is the Super Bowl favorite and the most complete team in the league.

The only two quasi-holes you can poke in this team are these. Can they stay healthy? And can Matt Schaub win it all on his first career trip to the postseason? Neither of those things are going to be factors this week. It’s not the playoffs yet and the only injury they have is depth receiver Lestar Jean, who is out after having knee surgery. All of the key players are still healthy.

As for the Titans, last week, they looked much more like the Titan team I put in the playoffs at the beginning of the season. Jake Locker looked much more comfortable with Nate Washington and Kenny Britt at full strength, going 29 of 42 for 278 yards and 2 touchdowns, although part of that might be Detroit’s crappy secondary. The Titans do rank 18th in yards per play differential, but I’m not putting them back in the playoffs or anything yet.

Chris Johnson is still hilariously bad, even against the type of poor run defense he would have gashed last season, and the young defense is still missing Cortland Finnegan and Colin McCarthy. The latter is expected back from injury sometime soon, but he won’t play in this one. Also possibly not playing in this one is Kenny Britt, who hasn’t practiced all week with an ankle problem. That obviously hurts Locker as he faces the toughest defense he’s played yet.

The difference between these two teams’ yards per play differentials is .9 yards per play. An old gambling formula says to divide that by .15 and then add 3 either way to get the “real line.” That suggests that this line should be -9 in favor of the Texans. Obviously, it’s a little bit more accurate later in the season, but it’s definitely worth noting. We’re getting 3 points of line value with the Titans and that doesn’t even take into account that Tennessee looked much better last week. This line was also -10 a week ago when the Titans looked like one of the worst teams in the league. I don’t know why it would shift 2 points in the other direction now that the Titans look passable, even though Houston’s win was impressive.

That being said, the Titans are in a tough situation this week. Dogs coming off a close (1-3 points) win as home dogs are 19-31 ATS since 2002. Teams tend not to be focused after a close, emotional upset win at home, which makes sense. Also Britt’s possible and likely absence does hurt them a lot. It’s one of the reasons, I believe, that they looked so much better last week, along with the return of Nate Washington to full strength.

I’m really torn on this one. There’s a reason I saved it for last. Houston is the best team in the league, but as we saw with the 49ers last week, teams that get anointed as the best team in the league by the media tend to fall flat the next week. That happened with the Patriots after week 1 too. The Titans are also coming off their best performance yet and are healthier than they’ve been all season, even with Britt possibly out. We also get line value with the Titans and the chance to fade the public.

However, Tennessee is in a tough spot and Britt’s absence does matter a lot with Locker facing almost definitely the toughest defense he’s ever faced as a starter. Also, while they looked much better last week, they still only managed to win by 3 and their defense once again looked really bad. And let’s not forget, in their first 2 games, they weren’t competitive at all.

I was going to just take the points and fade the public because of how well underdogs are doing this year (29-18 ATS) and how poorly the public is doing this year. Road dogs of 10+ and home dogs of 7+ are a combined 4-2 ATS this year. However, those two losses were both against the Texans, who really look like the real deal, unlike San Francisco and New England when they were anointed. The Texans have also covered in another bad situation this year, as road favorites (6-13 ATS this year) and against no slouch of a team, playing the Broncos in Denver. I’m not betting against them.

Public lean: Houston (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Tennessee covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): TEN 5 HOU 5

Final Update: Sharps are also torn as I am and as afraid of this game as I am. The fact that so few sharps are picking Tennessee (sharps tend to love dogs and big dogs especially) makes me feel a little bit more confident in Houston, who is probably the best team in the league, but if I did 0 unit picks, this would be one of them.

Houston Texans 31 Tennessee Titans 17

Pick against spread: Houston -12 (-110) 1 unit

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Houston Texans: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#1)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Texans

Last week: 2 (+1)

Record: 3-0

I’ve poked holes in pretty much every other team in the league. I can’t do that with this team. They are without a flaw. Winning in Denver in the high altitude against a talented team and a no huddle offense is damn impressive and 3 games into the season, this is the Super Bowl favorite and the most complete team in the league. Actually, I kind of lied. You can poke two holes in this team. Can they stay healthy? And can Matt Schaub win it all on his first career trip to the postseason? That’s still better than everyone else, however, though there’s a lot left to be determined.

Studs

QB Matt Schaub: 17 of 30 for 290 yards, 4 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 throw aways, 2 hit as throwns, 1 batted pass, 2 drops, 102.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 17 of 31 drop backs (1 sack, 9 of 16, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception, 1 throw away, 2 hit as throwns)

C Chris Myers: Did not allow a pressure on 33 pass block snaps, run blocked for 56 yards on 15 attempts

LT Duane Brown: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 33 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 18 yards on 3 attempts

CB Johnathan Joseph: Allowed 3 catches for 30 yards on 9 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

FS Glover Quin: Allowed 1 catch for 6 yards on 5 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 4 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 quarterback hurry on 5 blitzes

LOLB Brooks Reed: 1 sack and 5 quarterback hits on 41 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

LE JJ Watt: 3 sacks and 3 quarterback hits on 46 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 7 stops, 1 missed tackle

Duds

RT Derek Newton: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 25 pass block snaps, 3 penalties, run blocked for 10 yards on 3 attempts

RG Antoine Caldwell: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 18 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 1 attempt

CB Kareem Jackson: Allowed 7 catches for 107 yards and a touchdown on 10 attempts, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist

CB Brice McCain: 5 catches for 84 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 2 penalties, 2 solo tackles

ROLB Connor Barwin: Did not record a pressure on 51 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

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Houston Texans at Denver Broncos: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, Broncos, Texans

Houston Texans (2-0) at Denver Broncos (1-1)

No line has moved more over the past week than this one. Last week, this line was -2.5 in favor of Denver and now it’s -2 in favor of Houston. Why? Because Houston blew out the lowly Jaguars? Because Denver lost by 6 in Atlanta, one of the toughest places to play in the National Football League? I don’t get it. This line should probably be around -2.5 or -3 because these teams are pretty evenly matched (3 points is home field advantage).

Speaking of home field advantage, I’ve said before that I expect the Broncos to have one of the best home/road disparities in the NFL this season. They have a huge advantage at home, running the no huddle against defenses not used to playing in the thin air, but on the road, not only do they not have that advantage, but in noisy atmospheres like Atlanta last week, it’s tough to communicate your signals on audibles at the line.

Last week, they lost in Atlanta, one of the toughest places in the league to play, but it wasn’t too bad. Despite a disastrous 1st quarter, the Broncos only lost by 6 and outgained the Falcons 336 to 275. The reason they lost was because they lost the turnover battle 4-0. That probably won’t happen again. Not only are turnovers inconsistent on a weekly basis anyway, but it just doesn’t feel like something that happens to Peyton Manning quarterbacked teams all that often. And the reason it doesn’t feel like that is because it actually doesn’t happen much. In Peyton Manning’s career before last week, his team had only lost the turnover differential battle by 4 or more 6 times and 4 of those times were in 2001 or earlier.

Turnovers aside, the Broncos have been one of the best teams in the league so far this year, ranking 3rd in yards per play differential, which is my favorite stat and one that I feel is the best indicator of future success. And the Broncos have done that against a tough schedule, playing two playoff teams from last year, Pittsburgh and Atlanta. The Texans, meanwhile, rank 7th despite playing Miami and Jacksonville.

This week, the Broncos get another tough test as they face the Texans, but they also return home where, as I mentioned, they have a huge advantage because they run a no huddle against teams not used to playing in the thin air. The Texans have one of the best defenses in the league, but so does Pittsburgh and the Steelers still eventually got winded and surrendered 31 points in a 31-19 loss week 1. I envision a similar outcome here. The Texans will be in it for a while, before Denver finally prevails and possibly by double digits. I’m not betting against them at home, especially as underdogs.

Speaking of underdogs, Peyton Manning is 10-2 ATS as an underdog since 2006 (excluding meaningless week 17 games. If you’re wondering how he does as a home as an underdog, well there’s not a lot to go on. He’s only been a home underdog one other time in that time period and that was against the Patriots in 2007 (he covered, but did not win). I picked against him as an underdog in Atlanta last week because of the home/away disparity and because of how good Matt Ryan is at home, but this week, I really like Denver, especially against a Houston team that hasn’t played anyone yet this season. They might still be in close to preseason mode and not prepared for this test. I also like that despite the big line change, the public is on Houston heavily. I like to go against the public every chance I get (the public is 13-19 this year and getting killed in games like this where a ton of the action is on one side).

Public lean: Houston (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Denver covers)

Denver Broncos 27 Houston Texans 20 Upset Pick +110

Pick against spread: Denver +2 (-110) 3 units

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Houston Texans: Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#2)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Texans

Last week: 2 (+0)

Record: 2-0

Those might have been the easiest opening two games ever. The Texans pounded on the Dolphins and Jaguars, outscoring them 57-17 and outgaining them 748-392. Now for a real test as they head to Denver to take on Peyton Manning and that no huddle offense in thin air. The Texans may be untested, but they still look like one of the best teams in the league, as they did preseason.

Studs

C Chris Myers: Did not allow a pressure on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 64 yards on 15 attempts

RG Antoine Caldwell: Did not allow a pressure on 24 pass block snaps, run blocked for 22 yards on 4 attempts

RT Derek Newton: Did not allow a pressure on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 45 yards on 5 attempts, 1 penalty

RB Ben Tate: Rushed for 74 yards (38 after contact) and 2 touchdowns on 12 carries, 1 broken tackle: 4 catches for 23 yards on 4 targets

RB Arian Foster: Rushed for 110 yards (51 after contact) and a touchdown on 28 carries, 1 broken tackle, 6 catches for 37 yards on 7 targets

LE JJ Watt: 2 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 1 quarterback hurry on 25 pass rush snaps, 2 batted passes, 4 solo tackles, 5 stops

CB Kareem Jackson: Did not allow a catch on 3 attempts, no tackles

Duds

LG Wade Smith: Allowed 3 quarterback hits and 1 quarterback hurry on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 16 yards on 8 attempts

TE Owen Daniels: 6 catches for 47 yards on 9 targets on 31 pass snaps, 5.2 YAC per catch, 2 drops

WR Andre Johnson: 3 catches for 21 yards on 4 targets on 32 pass snaps, 4.3 YAC per catch

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Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Texans

Houston Texans (1-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1)

Blaine Gabbert looked serviceable in the opener against the Vikings, completing 23 of 39 for 260 yards, 2 touchdown, and no interceptions. Minnesota’s secondary is crap, but I was very impressed with Gabbert’s poise under pressure. I didn’t like the matchup for Gabbert because of his struggles under pressure last season. Minnesota has one of the league’s best pass rushes and they lived up to their billing, pressured Gabbert on 18 of 43 drop backs, but Gabbert only took 2 sacks and completed 9 of 15 on those 18 drop backs (3 runs).

Houston this week, unfortunately, has both a great pass rush and a great secondary, so this will be a major test for the 2nd year quarterback. He won’t get a lot of help from his offensive line. Minnesota’s got a great pass rush, but part of the reason why Gabbert was under pressure so much was the play of his offensive line, specifically right tackle. Cameron Bradfield got the start, but left with an ankle injury, allowing Guy Whimper, who was awful last year as a starter, to come in. He was awful, making Brian Robison look like a Pro Bowl defensive end.

Bradfield wasn’t much better before he got hurt and Robison pressured Gabbert on 9 throws. Whoever starts there this week will have a tough time trying to contain the Texans’ pass rush, especially if it’s Whimper, which it looks like it will be. Also likely to miss this week’s game with injury is left guard Eben Britton. Britton moved from right tackle to left guard when Will Rackley got hurt and if he can’t go, it’ll be up to either undrafted rookie Mike Brewster or Troy Kropog, recently signed, to start at left guard. Either way, it’s a problem area. Gabbert will be under pressure all night and if he reverts to his old habits, he could really struggle, especially against Houston’s secondary. Even if he continues to show poise in the pocket, the Jaguars will probably still have trouble moving the ball against a tough Houston defense.

The Jaguars also have injuries on the defensive side of the ball. Daryl Smith and Derek Cox did not suit up for the opener and might not play again this week. Smith was ProFootballFocus’ 2nd ranked outside linebacker last season, only behind Von Miller, while Derek Cox was a real shutdown cornerback in limited action in his 3rd year in the league last year, before going out with injuries.

Cox, a surprise 3rd round pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, didn’t play well as a starter in either 2009 or 2010, but was awesome to start the season last year. He allowed just 9 completions on 28 attempts (32.1%) for 105 yards (3.8 YPA), no touchdowns, and no interceptions, while deflecting 3 passes and being penalized once. His 44.5 QB rating would have been 2nd in the league had he had enough snaps to qualify. If he can stay healthy and keep that up over an entire season, he’ll emerge as one of the top cornerbacks in the league, but those are pretty big ifs, especially now that he’s missed 1 game and maybe more. In the opener, replacements Aaron Ross and Kyle Bosworth predictably struggled. If the Jaguars couldn’t stop the Vikings, they’re going to have a lot of trouble stopping the Texans.

This matchup seems pretty straight forward. Jacksonville had a nice little game in an eventual losing effort to a mediocre Vikings team, but they’re simply too overmatched to beat or even hang with the Texans, especially being as banged up as they are now. The Texans might be the most complete team in the league.  It’s not a very big bet though because I hate betting on road favorites of 7+. Road favorites of 7+ are 77-98 ATS since 2002, which is not quite significant enough to deter me from betting on the Texans in what should be a blow out game, but it is significant enough to prevent me from making this a big bet.

Weird things can happen in games between significantly superior teams and significantly inferior teams when the significantly inferior team is at home. Just think back to the Philadelphia at Cleveland game last week. Same situation and for the same reason I made it a small bet on Philadelphia, even though I felt it should be a blowout. It wasn’t and I wasn’t hurt too much.

Public lean: Houston (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Jacksonville covers)

Houston Texans 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Pick against spread: Houston -7.5 (-105) 1 unit

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Houston Texans: Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#2)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Texans

Last week: 2 (+0)

Record: 1-0

The Texans really looked like they were sleep walking through most of last week’s game and they still got the 30-10 win. It’s tough to learn much about a team when they play the lowly Dolphins. The Texans get their first test of the season this week when they go to Jacksonville…wait no, never mind. Eventually, we’ll see what this team is made of against a real opponent.

Studs

QB Matt Schaub: 20 of 31 for 266 yards, 1 touchdown, 4 dropped passes, 104.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured 12 times

LT Duane Brown: Allowed 0 sacks, quarterback hits, or quarterback pressures on 35 pass block snaps, run blocked for -3 yards on 2 carries

C Chris Myers: Allowed 1 quarterback pressure on 35 pass block snaps, run blocked for 44 yards and a touchdown on 8 carries

WR Andre Johnson: 8 catches for 119 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets on 29 pass plays, 1 drop, 3.1 YAC per catch

LE JJ Watt: 1 sack and 3 quarterback hits on 30 pass rush snaps, 3 batted passes, 1 tackle and 2 stops on 17 run snaps

CB Johnathan Joseph: Allowed 1 catch for 3 yards on 4 attempts, 1 interception, 4 solo tackles and 1 stop on 18 run snaps

Duds

LG Wade Smith: Allowed 1 sack and 2 quarterback pressures on 35 pass block snaps, run blocked for 7 yards on 6 carries

RG Antoine Caldwell: Allowed 1 sack and 2 quarterback pressures on 35 pass block snaps, run blocked for 9 yards on 6 carries

RT Derek Newton: Allowed 2 quarterback hits and 4 quarterback pressures on 35 pass block snaps, run blocked for 2 yards on 1 carry

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