Titans

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts: 2016 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (5-5) at Indianapolis Colts (4-5)

The Titans pulled off a huge home upset victory over the Green Bay Packers last week, which shifted this line from 4 in favor of the host Indianapolis Colts on the early line last week down to 3 this week, a significant shift considering about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. Typically, I like to fade significant line movements because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play and I also tend to fade teams coming off of home upset victories, as teams are just 59-79 ATS off of a home victory as underdogs since 2012. However, the Titans have been at the top of my underrated teams list pretty much all season and I think even after last week’s statement victory they remain underrated. Most seem to be attributing Tennessee’s win to Green Bay not being good anymore, but it’s Tennessee’s rise, not Green Bay’s supposed fall that should be the story from that game.

Despite 5-5 record, the Titans enter this game 3rd in first down rate differential. They’ve been competitive in every game and have a +13 point differential on the season, despite being -7 in return touchdown differential. Aside from those 7 plays, they have a +61 point differential (which would be 4th best in the NFL). They have 33 offensive touchdowns on the season, as opposed to 21 allowed by their defense, a +12 differential that is best in the NFL. This line still suggests these two teams are even, but that’s far from the case.

Part of that is because the Colts are overrated. People remember them beating the Packers in Green Bay before their bye, but that was largely because of long returns on special teams. The Packers lost the first down rate battle by 9.50% against the Titans, but won by 5.20% against the Colts. Prior to that, the Colts were blown out at home 31-13 by a Chiefs team that has scored just one offensive touchdown in 2 games since. On the season, despite a few wins, the Colts rank just 29th in first down rate differential, thanks to a defense that is allowing the highest first down rate in the league. Outside of special teams, this hasn’t been a good Indianapolis team this season.

Prior to the Chiefs game, the Colts did beat the Titans 34-26 in Tennessee, but the Titans have still been a lot better on the season. Also, that loss puts the Titans in a good spot here, as divisional road underdogs are 60-32 ATS since 2002 in same season divisional revenge games against an opponent that previously beat them as home favorites. Comparable teams tend to split the season series, even if the road team pulls the upset in the first game. These teams aren’t even comparable, so the Titans should have a great chance of evening the season series. It’s also worth keeping in mind that the Titans don’t really have much of a homefield advantage, so the fact that this is a road game for them isn’t that big of a deal. Since 2010, the Titans have been outscored by 5 points per game on the road and 3 points per game at home, suggesting their homefield advantage has been worth about a point over that time period.

The Titans are also in a much better spot than the Colts because the Colts have to turn around and play Pittsburgh on Thursday Night on Thanksgiving, while the Titans go to Chicago to take on a Bears team that’s been one of the worst in the league this year. The Titans figure to be completely focused to take down an opponent that has caused them a lot of trouble in recent years, while the Colts could get caught looking forward to a tough Thursday Night game. The early line has them as 3 point home underdogs against the Steelers, while the Titans are favored by a point in Chicago. Favorites are 50-82 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football, while underdogs are 92-60 ATS since 2012 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. If the Colts aren’t focused, they’re going to have a very tough time defeating a team that has significantly outplayed them this season. This is not only my Pick of the Week, but also one of my favorite picks all year.

Tennessee Titans 27 Indianapolis Colts 20 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (4-4) at Tennessee Titans (4-5)

The Titans may be just 4-5, but they actually rank 7th in the NFL in first down rate differential. They’ve been competitive in every game and have a -9 point differential on the season, despite being -7 in return touchdown differential. Aside from those 7 plays, they have a +39 point differential (which would be 6th best in the NFL) and have quietly played very solid football this season. They have 10 more first downs than their opponents on the season and, in offensive touchdowns, they have a +9 advantage (27 to 18).

The Packers are also better than their record, as their 3 of their losses have come by a combined 9 points and were all very winnable games. They could easily be 6-2 or 7-1 right now and rank 5th in first down rate differential. However, because the Packers are the Packers and the Titans are the Titans, the odds makers have underrated the Titans, but not the Packers here, even though these two teams actually have very similar records. The Packers are favored by a field goal here in Tennessee, so we’re getting great line value with the hosts. These two teams are much more even than people realize. About 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal and 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less, so the Titans at 3 are my Pick of the Week this week.

Tennessee Titans 23 Green Bay Packers 20 Upset Pick +140

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers: 2016 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (4-4) at San Diego Chargers (3-5)

The Titans may be just 4-4, but they actually rank 5th in the NFL in first down percentage differential. They’ve been competitive in every game and have a -1 point differential on the season, despite being -5 in return touchdown differential. Aside from those 5 plays, they have a +33 point differential (which would be 9th best in the NFL) and have quietly played very solid football this season. They have 17 more first downs than their opponents on the season and, in offensive touchdowns, they have a +7 advantage (22 to 15).

The Chargers are also better than their record at 3-5, as all 5 of their losses have come by 8 points or fewer. In fact, the Chargers have lost just 3 games by more than 8 points in the past 2 seasons, 24 games. However, at the same time, they have just 5 wins over that time period by more than 4 points, which is what it’ll take to cover this spread. They rank 7th in first down percentage differential, which is better than their record, but still worse than Tennessee. The Chargers have faced the tougher schedule, but this line should still be no higher than 3, especially since the Chargers enter this game very banged up.

The Chargers have been missing guys like wide receiver Steve Johnson, running back Danny Woodhead, wide receiver Keenan Allen, middle linebacker Manti Te’o, and cornerback Jason Verrett for most, if not all of the season thus far. On top of that, the Chargers will have a number of injured players inactive this week. Linebacker Denzel Perryman, Jatavis Brown, and Jeremiah Attachou are all out and all 3 are starters when healthy, and tight end Hunter Henry will join them, leaving the aging Antonio Gates to be an every down tight end. The rookie Henry has vastly outplayed Gates this season, as the veteran looks out of gas. Close to 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer, so I love getting 4.5 points with the Titans. As long as this line is higher than 4, the Titans are worth a bet again this week, as they continue to be underrated.

San Diego Chargers 24 Tennessee Titans 23

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +4.5

Confidence: Medium

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans: 2016 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (2-4) at Tennessee Titans (3-4)

The Titans may be just 3-3, but they actually rank 4th in the NFL in first down percentage differential. They’ve been competitive in every game and have a -15 point differential on the season, despite being -5 in return touchdown differential. Aside from those 5 plays, they have a +19 point differential and have quietly played very solid football this season. They’ve allowed just 12 offensive touchdowns all season on 74 drives (two of which came after recovered onside kicks) and have 19 more first downs than their opponents. In offensive touchdowns, they have a +6 advantage (18 to 12).

That doesn’t mean the Titans are the 4th best team in the NFL or anything, but they’re better than their record suggests. Much healthier and more talented than they were in 2015, the Titans run the ball well, have a great offensive line, and play strong defense. They’ve just had a lot of bad luck thus far. The Jaguars, meanwhile, rank 19th in first down percentage differential, very much in line with their 2-4 record. Despite the mere half game separating these two teams, the Titans have a significant advantage and should be favored by more than a field goal at home. This line suggests these two teams are more or less even on a neutral field. As long as this line is 3, Tennessee is worth a bet, though I’d lay off at 3.5 because of how common field goal games are.

Tennessee Titans 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against the spread: Tennessee -3

Confidence: Medium

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Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: 2016 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (2-4) at Tennessee Titans (3-3)

The Titans may be just 3-3, but they actually rank 2nd in the NFL in first down percentage differential. They’ve been competitive in every game and have a -7 point differential on the season, despite being -4 in return touchdown differential. Aside from those 4 plays, they have a +20 point differential and have quietly played very solid football this season. They’ve allowed just 9 touchdowns all season on 63 drives and have 19 more first downs than their opponents. That doesn’t mean the Titans are the 2nd best team in the NFL or anything, but they’re better than their record suggests. Much healthier and more talented than they were in 2015, the Titans run the ball well, have a great offensive line, and play strong defense.

The Colts, meanwhile, have one of the weakest rosters in the NFL outside of the quarterback position. They enter this game 30th in first down percentage differential, only ahead of the Browns and Jets, thanks to a defense that has allowed a league worst 143 first downs. They also enter this game incredible banged up. They’ll be without #2 and #3 wide receiver Donte Moncrief and Phillip Dorsett, starting tight end Dwayne Allen, top offensive lineman Jack Mewhort, and top defensive lineman Henry Anderson. The Titans, meanwhile, are completely healthy. The Colts have the obvious advantage at quarterback, but the Titans have the advantage at every other position. This line is way too low at 3 because this line suggests that these two teams are even and that is not the case.

The Titans are in a bad spot though, as they have to play again in 4 days on Thursday Night Football. Favorites are just 50-77 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008. The Colts are coming off of a road overtime loss, which normally is a bad spot, but they’re lucky because they’re in their second of two road games here. Teams are 132-100 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 104-68 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games and 6-2 ATS in their 2nd of 2 road games off of an overtime loss. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 222-236 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.87 points per game, as opposed to 322-448 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.03 points per game. That being said, even though the Colts are in a better spot, I’m still confident enough in Tennessee at 3 to put money on them.

Tennessee Titans 27 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against the spread: Tennessee -3

Confidence: Medium

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Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans: 2016 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (0-5) at Tennessee Titans (2-3)

Ordinarily, I like to go against significant week-to-week line movements, because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. The early line for this game had the Titans as 5.5 point favorites, but the line has since moved up to 7 this week. However, that’s not enough to scare me off of Tennessee. I’ve had the Titans on my underrated list since the start of the season and they are still better than this line suggests. Despite their 2-3 record, they rank 5th in first down percentage differential. They’ve been competitive in every game and have a -9 point differential on the season, despite being -4 in return touchdown differential. Aside from those 4 plays, they have a +18 point differential and have quietly played very solid football this season. They’ve allowed just 6 touchdowns all season on 51 drives.

The Browns might have played a little bit tougher of a schedule than the Browns, but they’re a much inferior team. They have one of the league’s weakest rosters, especially with all of the players that are out with injury, and they rank 31st in first down percentage differential. The Browns were 10 point underdogs in Miami and 8 point underdogs in Washington, so it doesn’t make any sense that they’re just 7 point underdogs in Tennessee against the Titans, who are better than both of those teams. Even with the line movement, this line is too low.

Making matters worse for the Browns, they have another tough game on deck, as they travel to Cincinnati to play the division rival Bengals. Underdogs of 6+ are 46-74 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs of 6+ again. It’s very tough for inferior teams play well enough to keep it close against a superior team when they have another significantly superior opponent on deck. Betting on bad teams like the Browns is not always a bad idea, but big underdogs tend to only cover when they don’t have another equally tough or tougher opponent on deck. The early line actually has the Browns as 10.5 point underdogs in Cincinnati (even though the Titans and Bengals are actually comparably good teams). Teams are 39-61 ATS since 2012 before being double digit underdogs. It’s possibly that line shifts under 10 in the next week, but, either way, it’s a tough spot for the Browns against an underrated Tennessee team.

Tennessee Titans 24 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against the spread: Tennessee -7

Confidence: High

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Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins: 2016 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (1-3) at Miami Dolphins (1-3)

The Dolphins are 3.5 point favorites here at home against the Titans, but have a much tougher game on deck, as they have to turn around and host the Pittsburgh Steelers. The early line has them as 4.5 point underdogs. Teams are 51-95 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 4, including 7-19 ATS as favorites, as tough upcoming home games tend to serve as a distraction. Meanwhile, the Titans turn around and host the Browns in arguably the easiest game of their season, a game in which they’re expected to be 5.5 point favorites. With an easy game on deck, they should be completely focused for an opponent who might not be. That’s historically been the case, as underdogs are 82-57 ATS since 2012 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs.

The Titans are also in their second of two road games, which helps. Teams are 131-98 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 106-66 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 231-233 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.53 points per game, as opposed to 331-451 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.81 points per game.

As long as this line is 3.5, this is my Pick of the Week. About 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer, including 1 in 6 games by exactly 3 points. Because of the frequency of 3-point games, this line suggests the Dolphins are a significantly better team than the Titans, which I don’t agree with. This line should be 3 at the most, before you even take into account all of the situational factors involved in this game and the fact that the Dolphins have had little to no homefield advantage in recent years (5-12 ATS at home since 2014, including 3-8 ATS as home favorites). I actually have the Titans as a little bit better than the Dolphins, who could easily be 0-4 right now if not for 3 missed field goals in regulation by the Browns week 3. The Titans are a big play and the money line at +150 isn’t a bad idea either, since this game seems like at least a toss up. Worst case scenario, it’s tough to see the Dolphins winning by more than a field goal.

Tennessee Titans 17 Miami Dolphins 16 Upset Pick +150

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans: 2016 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (1-2) at Houston Texans (2-1)

I’m glad I locked this one in at 7 earlier in the week, because the line has since shifted to 5 thanks to a season ending injury to 3-time Defensive Player of the Year JJ Watt. Either way, I’d take the Titans for a big play. About 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer and the difference between these two teams in terms of talent is not enough to warrant this high of a line, especially without Watt. The Titans only won 3 games last year, but that was largely due to injuries and close losses. They added a good amount of talent this off-season, especially through the draft, and are at least a capable opponent. They rank 16th in rate of moving the chains differential (RMCD) through 3 games and that’s right about where I’d rank them as a team, in the middle of the pack. This line underrates them.

The Texans are also a middle of the pack opponent at best, especially without their best defensive player. On the season, they rank 14th in RMCD. Their defense has been strong this season, but they’ve also scored just 3 offensive touchdowns all year and are coming off of a game in which they were shut out by the Patriots. They also remain without left tackle Duane Brown. This line should be much closer to 3 because these two teams are pretty evenly matched talent wise. I’m taking the points for a big play and expecting a close game and possibly a Tennessee straight up victory.

Houston Texans 20 Tennessee Titans 17

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +7

Confidence: High

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Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans: 2016 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (1-1) at Tennessee Titans (1-1)

Both of these two teams were high on my underrated list going into the season. The Titans have so far exceeded expectations, not just winning last week on the road in Detroit, but also moving the chains at a higher rate than their opponent in both games. They enter this contest 13th in rate of moving the chains differential (RMCD). Their loss was at home to the Vikings by 9, but the Titans actually outplayed Minnesota for most of the game, outside of two offensive plays that ended up going for defensive touchdowns the other way. That was the difference in the game, but return touchdowns allowed tend to be more fluky plays rather than something that’s a long-term problem.

Meanwhile, the Raiders haven’t had a terrible start to the season, but aren’t playing like I expected. A solid defense last season, which added a significant amount of talent in the off-season, the Raiders’ defense has been the worst in the league through 2 games this season. Their offense has carried them, as they rank 1st in rate of moving the chains so far, but this is not a team I expected to be in a lot of shootouts. Their opponents in the first two games (New Orleans and Atlanta) are teams I expected to be in a lot of shootouts though, so it’s very likely the Raiders defense looks significantly better going forward, while their offense falls back down to earth. I don’t expect them to get in a shootout with the Titans, who aren’t built for shootouts either.

Whether or not the Raiders are good enough to be the #2 seed in the AFC, as I had them before the season, remains to be seen and this game in Tennessee is tougher than people realize, because the Titans are not a bad team. They only won 3 games last season, but that was largely because of injuries (particularly to quarterback Marcus Mariota) and close losses. They added a lot of talent this off-season, both rookies through the draft and veterans through trades and free agency, and are at least an average football team. This week, they get Derrick Morgan back from injury, though talented tight end Delanie Walker is highly questionable. As long as this line is under a field goal, I’m taking the Raiders to beat a quality opponent on the road, but I’m not confident enough to put anything on it.

Oakland Raiders 19 Tennessee Titans 16

Pick against the spread: Oakland -1

Confidence: Low

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Tennessee Titans at Detroit Lions: 2016 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (0-1) at Detroit Lions (1-0)

One of my favorite things to do as a bettor is go against week-to-week overreactions, so I always check to see how much the line has changed since the early line the previous week. Sometimes big line movements make sense, but often they don’t. This line was 3.5 a week ago, but has since moved all the way to 6. At first glance, that might make sense, as Detroit pulled the upset victory in Indianapolis, while the Titans lost by 9 at home to Shaun Hill in the Vikings, but Indianapolis is an overrated team, so that win wasn’t that impressive, while the Titans actually outplayed Minnesota for most of the game, outside of two offensive plays that ended up going for defensive touchdowns the other way. They actually moved the chains at a 70.00% rate, as opposed to 62.50% for Minnesota. Their defense looked impressive, holding Adrian Peterson to one of the least productive games of his career (31 yards on 19 carries).

The Titans did lose outside linebacker Derrick Morgan to injury last week and they really missed him when he was injured last season, but they drafted outside linebacker Kevin Dodd in the 2nd round for depth purposes, so they’re much better prepared to handle his absence this time around. On the other side, the Lions are without top linebacker DeAndre Levy. The Lions are a solid team and better than the Titans, but this line is too high at 6 points. It’s not enough for me to put any money on it, but I’m taking the points here.

Detroit Lions 27 Tennessee Titans 23

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +6

Confidence: Low

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