Titans

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, Steelers, Titans, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) at Tennessee Titans (2-7)

The Steelers fell flat on the road in New York last week, losing to the previously 1-win Jets 20-13. That was a surprise for a lot of people, but the Steelers have had a lot of recent struggles as non-divisional road favorites. They are 7-19 ATS since 2007 (when Mike Tomlin took over) as non-divisional road favorites, including 4-14 ATS as non-divisional road favorites of a field goal or more. They are once again in that situation here as 6 point road favorites in Tennessee. However, they are coming off of a loss, which is a different dynamic as the Steelers are 3-3 ATS as non-divisional road favorites off of a loss. It’s a small sample size, but it’s definitely worth noting. It’s also worth noting that this is their first time as non-divisional road favorites off of a loss as non-divisional road favorites in that time period.

The Titans are also really bad so this line might not be high enough. The Titans rank 31st, moving the chains at a 67.47% rate, as opposed to 75.40% for their opponents, a differential of -7.93%. Meanwhile, the Steelers rank 10th, moving the chains at a 76.49% rate, as opposed to 73.46% for their opponents, a differential of 3.03%. They also have another tough game on the horizon in Philadelphia, where they will almost definitely be double digit underdogs. Teams are 22-46 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2012. I’m still taking the Titans out of principle, especially with the public all over Pittsburgh, but I’m not confident at all.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Tennessee Titans 20

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +6

Confidence: None

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Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 10 NFL Picks, Ravens, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (2-6) at Baltimore Ravens (5-4)

The Ravens have lost two straight, but I really like their chances of bouncing back here in a big way for a variety of reasons. For one thing, they’ve historically done very well off of big losses in the John Harbaugh era, going 8-2 ATS off of a loss by 10 more since Harbaugh and Joe Flacco came to town in 2008. They didn’t fare well last week off of a close loss in Cincinnati week 8, but getting blown out in Pittsburgh last week could easily be the wakeup call this well-coached, veteran squad needed to get back on track.

They also return home, where they’ve fared very well since 2008. The Ravens are 44-10 straight up, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.52 points per game, at home, as opposed to 32-32, outscoring opponents by an average of 0.94 points per game on the road, a swing of about 9.5 points. It also certainly helps that they’re playing a weak opponent, as the 2-6 Titans are one of the worst teams in the NFL.

They rank 31st in the NFL, moving the chains at a 68.30% rate, as opposed to 75.44% for their opponents, a differential of -7.14%. They’re also starting a 6th round rookie quarterback in Zach Mettenberger and they got destroyed at home by Houston in his first career start. On the flip side, the Ravens rank 6th, moving the chains at a 76.27% rate, as opposed to 72.32% for their opponents, a differential of 3.95%. As high as this line is at 10, I don’t think it’s high enough.

Speaking of this line being high, the Ravens are in a fantastic spot as big home favorites heading into a bye, as teams are 68-29 ATS since 2002 as 6+ point home favorites going into a bye. Teams in that situation tend to be able to take care of business and then some with no distractions on the horizon. I expect the Ravens to be completely focused coming off of a big loss at home going into a bye and be able to blow out a significantly inferior Tennessee team.

Conversely, the Titans have another tough game against the Steelers on deck, which will serve as a big distractions. The early line for that game is 4.5 in favor of the Steelers on the road in Tennessee. Teams are 57-82 ATS before being 3+ point home underdogs since 2012, including 28-57 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs. That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough game coming up that serves as a distraction. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. I think it’s both in this situation. This should be a very easy Baltimore win.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Tennessee Titans 9

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -10

Confidence: High

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Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 8 NFL Picks, Texans, Titans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (3-3) at Tennessee Titans (2-5)

The Texans are road favorites here, but they could easily be home underdogs next week when they host the Eagles. Road favorites are 76-118 ATS since 1989 before being home underdogs, including 18-27 ATS as divisional road favorites before being non-divisional home underdogs, as that upcoming game tends to be a major distraction. Even if that game has an even line (as the early line currently is) or the Texans are favored by 1-2 points, the logic still stands.

We’re also getting some line value with the Titans because the Texans aren’t as good as their 3-3 record suggests, as they move the chains at a 69.95% rate, as opposed to 73.39% for their opponents, a differential of -3.44% that ranks 25th in the NFL. The Titans aren’t good, moving the chains at a 69.35% rate, as opposed to 75.51% for their opponents, a differential of 6.16% that ranks 29th in the NFL, but the Texans shouldn’t be favored by a field goal on the road against anyone other than Oakland.

I’m not that confident in Tennessee because they’re starting unproven 6th round rookie Zach Mettenberger at quarterback. It’s possible he’s an upgrade over Charlie Whitehurst, who has started the last few games for them, but he’s a complete wild card and the track record of late round rookies starting at quarterback isn’t great. It’s very possible Mettenberger is head coach Ken Whisenhunt’s next Ryan Lindley. The Titans should be the right side though.

Houston Texans 17 Tennessee Titans 16

Pick against spread: Tennessee +3

Confidence: Low

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Tennessee Titans at Washington Redskins: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 7 NFL Picks, Commanders, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (2-4) at Washington Redskins (1-5)

At first glance, it looks like we’re getting line value with the Redskins. Despite the Redskins’ 1-5 record, they are 10th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 73.50% rate, as opposed to 71.74% for their opponents. Meanwhile, the Titans are 29th at -7.00%, moving the chains at a 69.71% rate, as opposed to 76.71% for their opponents. That suggests this line should be around 11.5 or 12 because rate of moving the chains suggests the Redskins are an above average team.

However, that’s just because they were so dominant in one game at home against the lowly Jaguars, in which they moved the chains at an 84.09% rate, as opposed to 45.00% for the Jaguars, a differential of 39.09%, the biggest single game rate of moving the chains differential this season. If you take that out, the Redskins are moving the chains at a 70.51% rate, as opposed to 75.00% for their opponents, a differential of -4.49%, which would rank 25th in the NFL. They’re still better than their record. They could have easily won in Philadelphia and their double digit losses in Arizona and Houston weren’t quite as bad as the final score suggested. Both would have been field goal losses on the road against decent or better opponents if not for return touchdowns and blocked extra points. However, they are definitely not an above average team.

They don’t really have any business being favored by this many points (6) over anyone, except for maybe those lowly Jaguars. I’m not thrilled about taking Charlie Whitehurst and the Titans here (I was holding out hope all week that it would end up being Locker for the Titans, but it doesn’t look like it’s going to be the case), but they should be the right side here. Teams that finish 6-10 or worse cover the spread about a quarter of the time historically for obvious reasons.

It’s a tough trend to use as it’s such a rare case that a team that you know will most likely finish 6-10 or worse is actually favored by that many. The Redskins would have to go 6-4 or better the rest of the way to finish 7-9 or better. The Titans failed to cover as 6 point favorites over the Jaguars last year, winning by just 2, another case that is most likely relevant to that trend. Despite that, the public is still on the Redskins, possibly because they think the Redskins are significantly better than their record. I like fading the public any chance I can get, especially when it makes it sense like it does here.

Another trend is working against the Redskins as well. The Titans are in a much better spot with an easier game on deck. While the Titans host the Texans next (in game in which they will most likely be favored), the Redskins have to go to Dallas. Teams are 85-103 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs, while teams are 121-88 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites. Going off of that, teams are 94-56 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, including 94-57 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponent will next be road underdogs. As long as this line is 6 points or higher, I’m reasonably confident in the Titans.

Washington Redskins 20 Tennessee Titans 19

Pick against spread: Tennessee +6

Confidence: Medium

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 6 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Titans, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5) at Tennessee Titans (1-4)

This is a game where I don’t want to pick either side. On one hand, the Titans might not deserve to be favored by 6 points against anyone, especially with Charlie Whitehurst likely under center again. They are 1-4. They rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 70.39% rate, as opposed to 76.80% for their opponents, a differential of 6.40%. They’re almost definitely going to finish 6-10 or worse and teams that finish that badly almost never cover as a favorite of 6 or more, doing so only about 25% of the time historically. It’s a powerful trend that can’t be used often because it refers to such rare cases and it’s tough to know how teams will finish, but it’s pretty clear that the Titans will not be going 6-5 to finish the season and finishing 7-9.

On the other hand, the Jaguars might be so bad that they’re the exception. They rank dead last in rate of moving the chains differential and not only that but their over 9 percentage points worse than Tennessee, as bad as they are. They move the chains at a 62.69% rate, as opposed to 78.41% for their opponents, meaning they are simultaneously one of the worst defenses and the worst offenses in the NFL and they have a differential of -15.72%. They have covered just 6 of their last 22 games, dating back to week 17 of 2012. Over those 22 games, they lost 15 of them by double digits. The Titans aren’t good, but I wouldn’t be shocked at all if they were able to pull out a double digit win here at home.

Going off of that, the Jaguars are projected to be 4 point home underdogs next week for the Browns. Not only is that the most the Browns have been favored by on the road since they rejoined the NFL in 1999, which again highlights how bad these Jaguars are, but teams tend to struggle before being big home underdogs. Teams are 49-77 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of three of more and 23-54 ATS in that same time period before being home underdogs of four or more. That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough, important game coming up. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. Here, it’s definitely the latter. The Jaguars are the side I’m going with, but I’m not confident in that at all.

Tennessee Titans 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +6

Confidence: None

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Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 5 NFL Picks, Browns, Titans, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (1-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-3)

Tennessee has been demolished in back to back weeks, losing by final scores of 33-7 and 41-17, but I have reason to think that this week will be different. For one, Jake Locker is coming back from injury. Locker isn’t great or anything, but he’s definitely better than Charlie Whitehurst who started last week and is one of the worst backup quarterbacks in the NFL. Whitehurst started last week. Two, the Titans will be using Bishop Sankey more this week. Sankey is averaging 5.13 yards per carry this season and could get a season high in touches after he combined for 19 touches in week 3 and week 4 after combining for 8 touches in week 1 and week 2.

Three, the Titans are actually in a good spot coming off of those blowout losses, as teams are 40-22 ATS since 2002 coming off of back to back losses of 21+ or more. It may seem counterintuitive, but it makes sense when you think about it. Teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in that situation and the Titans should be all three this week. These two teams are roughly comparable so this line should be closer to 3. The Browns also won’t be completely focused for this one with the Steelers on deck, while the Titans have their easiest game of the season on deck with the Jaguars coming to town next week. I like the Titans to bounce back and win this game.

Tennessee Titans 17 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against spread: Tennessee -1

Confidence: Low

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Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 4 NFL Picks, Colts, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (1-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-2)

The Titans were 7 point underdogs in Cincinnati last week and got blown out by the score of 33-7. Now they’re 7.5 point underdogs in Indianapolis. I think this week will go a little differently for several reasons. For one, the Colts aren’t as good as the Bengals, especially at home, where the Bengals have now covered 11 straight regular season games. The Bengals were significantly better last season, with a rate of moving the chains differential of 7.81%, as opposed to 0.70% for Indianapolis, and they’re still better this season, with a differential of 3.39% for Cincinnati as opposed to 3.14% for Indianapolis. The Colts only have 9 wins by more than a touchdown since the start of the Andrew Luck era in 2012. Their other 15 wins have come by a touchdown or less. They’ve beaten the Titans four times, but none of those wins have come by more than 8 points.

The Titans are also in a better spot this week. Last week, they were facing a Bengal team going into a bye last week and big home favorites cover about 75% of the time going into a bye. This week, they’re in a good spot, with an easier, less important game against the Browns up next. Teams are 47-33 ATS as divisional road favorites before being non-divisional home favorites since 2008. They’re going to be very focused for this one.

The Titans are also road underdogs after a road loss. Teams are 103-67 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 88-45 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 172-178 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 239-344 in their 1st of one road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.20 points per game.  I like the Titans’ chances to keep bounce back and keep this one close.

Indianapolis Colts 27 Tennessee Titans 24

Pick against spread: Tennessee +7.5

Confidence: Medium

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Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 3 NFL Picks, Bengals, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (1-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-0)

The Bengals beat the Falcons 24-10 last week in Cincinnati, making it 10 straight regular season home games that they’ve not only won but covered, winning by an average of 16.1 points per game. They moved the chains at a 75.00% rate, as opposed to 64.51% for their opponents, the 4th best differential of the week. They should be able to do the same thing this week against an average at best Tennessee team. AJ Green is expected to play after missing most of last week’s blowout victory with injury.

The Bengals are also in a good spot going into a bye. They’ll be completely focused. Teams are 67-28 ATS since 2002 as 6+ point favorite going into a bye, including 52-17 ATS at home. Here as 7 point favorites, I really like the Bengals’ chances of covering. While the Bengals are in a good spot, the Titans aren’t as they have to go to Indianapolis next week, which is an equally big, if not bigger game. Non-divisional road underdogs are 49-77 ATS before being a divisional road underdog since 2002. This has all the makings of a blowout.

Cincinnati Bengals 24 Tennessee Titans 10

Pick against spread: Cincinnati -7

Confidence: Medium

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Dallas Cowboys at Tennessee Titans: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 2 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Titans, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (0-1) at Tennessee Titans (1-0)

I had the Cowboys at 4-12 coming into the season, but even that might have been a little optimistic, based on their play against the 49ers week 1 in a 28-13 home loss. Their defense was just as bad as I expected, unable to get off the field and essentially showing themselves to be non-existent. However, Tony Romo looked like he was turning into 2014’s version of Matt Schaub in 2013, an older non-top tier quarterback who sees his abilities randomly fall off a cliff. Romo threw 3 picks, 2 of which were awful. In his age 34 season, coming off of serious back surgery, it’s a concern.

The Cowboys offense moved the chains well when they weren’t turning the ball over and it’s important not to overreact to one game so I’m not moving them down in my book any further from where I had them, but I still think this is a terrible team with easily the worst defense in the league and an offense that won’t be able to keep up. The Titans aren’t a great team (their win in Kansas City was more an indictment of the Chiefs than a sign that the Titans will be good this season), but they’re still noticeably better than the Cowboys. We’re getting line value with them as they’re more than a half point better than the Titans.

The reason the Titans aren’t a bigger play this week is because they aren’t in a great situation. They have a much tougher game than the Cowboys next week as they go to Cincinnati while the Cowboys go to St. Louis. Teams are 67-96 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road favorites since 2002, while teams are 86-54 ATS as underdogs before being favorites when their opponents will next be underdogs since 2010. The Titans should still be the right side, but I’m not that confident.

Tennessee Titans 27 Dallas Cowboys 20

Pick against spread: Tennessee -3.5

Confidence: Low

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Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 1 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (0-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)

This is one of a few plays that I’m really disappointed I didn’t get in earlier. The Chiefs used to be 6 point favorites and there was obvious value with Tennessee in that situation. The Chiefs are not going to be nearly as good as they were record wise last season. Everything suggests the Chiefs will decline this season. Teams that have big win improvements tend to decline by about half the win improvement total from the previous season. The Chiefs won 2 games in 2012 and 11 games in 2013, a 9 game win improvement. Obviously the addition of Alex Smith and Andy Reid had something to do with that, but the rest of the team is pretty much the same. History suggests they’ll decline by about 4 or 5 wins, which would put them right around the win total they had in 2011, when they went 7-9.

That’s not the only thing I’m basing my decline theory on though. The Chiefs were not as good as their record suggested last season. They played the league’s easiest schedule in terms of DVOA, which doesn’t even take into account the number of teams they faced who were starting backup quarterbacks. Now they trade out the NFC East and the AFC South for the AFC East and the NFC West. They also suffered an unsustainably low amount of injuries, with the fewest adjusted games lost in the NFL last season. Yes, they did lose Justin Houston for 5 ½ games which hurt, but their other key players, Derrick Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Tamba Hali, Eric Berry, Dontari Poe, Alex Smith, Dwayne Bowe, and Mike Devito missed a combined 1 game between them last season, excluding the finale, in which the Chiefs rested their starters. That much injury luck is unlikely to happen again. They’re already without Dwayne Bowe for this game with a one-game suspension and Eric Berry could be limited by a lingering heel problem.

The Chiefs were also overly reliant on winning the turnover margin, with an AFC best +18 turnover margin. Winning the turnover margin consistently is hard to do, unless you have a top quarterback, and even then it’s hard. Teams with a turnover margin of +4 in a week on average have the same turnover margin the next week as a team that had a turnover margin of -4 the previous week, a turnover margin of about +0.0. Meanwhile, teams that have a turnover margin of +15 or better in a season see their turnover margins drop by an average of about 15.8 the following season, resulting in 2.32 fewer wins.

Teams with a turnover margin of -15 or worse in a season have an average turnover margin the following season of +2.04. Meanwhile, teams with a turnover margin of +15 or better in a season have an average turnover margin the following season of +3.42, a difference of about 1.38. These things are unpredictable. If you’re using a team’s turnover margin from the previous season as a reason why they’re going to continue to have success the next season, it’s usually not going to work out well. The Chiefs are unlikely to recover 58.70% of fumbles again next season, 4th best in the NFL. The tougher schedule and the fact that they’ll likely have more injuries will also play a role in this.

In addition to the Chiefs not being as good as their record last season, they also have less talent than last season, because of all of their off-season losses. They lost their 3 most talented offensive linemen, who combined for 26 starts last season. They also lost valuable depth at wide receiver, safety, and middle linebacker. They’re unlikely to get much out of their rookie class this season, as their first round pick was used with 2015 in mind and they didn’t have a 2nd round pick. In terms of pure talent level, I have them closer to the bottom of the league than the top.

I would have considered Tennessee +6 as a pick of the week because these two teams are pretty similar talent wise, but the sharps also know the Chiefs are going to decline and they bet this line all the way down to 3.5. There’s not nearly as much value here anymore. That being said, I’m going with the Titans still for a medium confidence pick. There isn’t as much wiggle room in case the Titans don’t win straight up in Kansas City, but I also feel more confident in my Chiefs decline theory knowing that the sharps seem to agree with me. Meanwhile, the public is likely all over the Chiefs as small favorites. This has all the makings of a trap bet for the public and I’m going the other way.

Tennessee Titans 20 Kansas City Chiefs 17 Upset Pick (+150)

Pick against spread: Tennessee +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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