Tennessee Titans (5-6) at Indianapolis Colts (7-4)

What the hell happened to the Colts? The same team that knocked off the Broncos, 49ers, and Seahawks before the bye has been playing terrible football in the four weeks since the bye, barely beating Tennessee and Houston by a field goal (after trailing early in both games), and getting blown out in Arizona and at home by St. Louis. The obvious answer is to blame it on Reggie Wayne’s absence and that would have some basis. Wayne tore his ACL in the Denver game before the bye and in the 4 games since, Andrew Luck has completed 55.6% of his passes for an average of 6.29 yards per attempt, 5 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions.

However, I don’t think that tells the story. I think, in addition to that, there are proving that the start of their season was a bit of a fluke and now they are really the team I thought they’d be to start the season, a team that, because of their offensive line and defensive struggles, would not make the playoffs. Last season, this team won 7 games by 7 points or less against teams that won 7 games or fewer and they ranked 25^th in DVOA. They’re playing like that again. Their home blowout loss to the Rams compares to their loss to the Jets last week. Their near losses to Houston and Tennessee bring back memories of all of their close wins over inferior competition last year. And their blowout loss in Arizona is similar to every single time they went on the road to a competent opponent last season.

The defense was amazing to start this season, but now is allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76% rate. The offensive line really hasn’t ever been good. They can’t run the ball, just like last season. And now the passing offense is struggling as a result of Wayne’s absence. They are moving the chains at exactly the same rate their opponents are, a differential that is 16^th in the NFL. And the most troubling part is they are plummeting so things could only get worse. In terms of DVOA, they are 17^th.

Unfortunately, the odds makers seem to have caught on. This line was 3 points 2 weeks ago in Tennessee, which would translate to 9 in Indianapolis, and even last week, the early line on this game was Indianapolis -6, but because of the Colts’ struggles, it’s now down to 4. That’s a huge shift. That being said, the line is totally justified. I mentioned the Colts were 16^th in rate of moving the chains differential (and plummeting), the Titans are 18^th, moving the chains at a 73% rate, but allowing opponents to do so at a 74% rate. They’ve been a decent team all season and haven’t really skipped a beat without Jake Locker because he wasn’t why they were winning and because Ryan Fitzpatrick is one of the best backups in the NFL.

They’re also in a good spot, 2 weeks removed from that loss to the Colts. Since 1989, teams are 16-5 ATS as underdogs two weeks after losing as underdogs to the same divisional opponent. These two teams are going to be so familiar with each other and that’s one of the great equalizers. That favors the underdog. I just wish we were still getting more line value and that Tennessee didn’t have to go to Denver next week. Teams are 34-69 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2010. The Titans should be the right side, but I’m not confident.

Indianapolis Colts 23 Tennessee Titans 20

Pick against spread: Tennessee +4

Confidence: None

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Tennessee Titans (4-5) at Indianapolis Colts (6-3)

Both of these teams lost as huge home favorites last week, the Colts lost 38-8 at home to the Rams and the Titans losing 29-27 to the Jaguars. It’s very likely both teams were caught looking forward to this huge divisional game and that last week’s performance was just a fluke for both teams. Both teams won the first down battle despite the loss and they lost for fluky reasons. The Titans fumbled 3 times and lost the turnover battle by 2, as a result.

Meanwhile, there are definitely some fluky aspects to the Colts’ loss to the Rams. The Rams led just one methodical touchdown drive, scoring on two return touchdowns, and two long passing touchdowns. That forced the Colts to give up their game plan and put them out of their comfort zone. Since 1989, 5 teams have won a game by 25 or more despite losing the first down battle by 9 or more. 2 of them are the 2013 Rams. I think we can give both of these teams a pass for what happened last week and essentially just approach this game is if neither of those games ever happened.

Yes, the Titans lost Jake Locker for the season last week, but he wasn’t the reason they were in the hunt. That would be their solid defense, led by Jurrell Casey, Alterraun Verner, Derrick Morgan, and others, which is allowing opponents to move the chains at a 71% rate. There’s a reason they were competitive with both Kansas City and Seattle even without Jake Locker. Fitzpatrick will have the whole week to prepare for this week and he’s one of the better backup quarterbacks in the NFL. Besides, it’s very possible the Colts recent struggles (including a near loss in Houston) are related to the loss of Reggie Wayne, who they lost against Denver before the bye. They haven’t been the same without him.

I’m not saying the Titans are definitely going to win this game, but the public seems to be giving the Colts a pass for last week, but not the Titans, even though they were in the same situation. The public is all over the Colts -3 because “how can the Colts not beat the Titans by 3 or more?” I love fading heavy public favorites when an opportunity presents itself and I also love getting a field goal or more with a home team unless that team is completely terrible. Remember, the Colts were 10 point favorites over the Rams last week. This line suggests the Colts would be 9 point favorites over the Titans. Considering the Titans covered as 3 point favorites in St. Louis 2 weeks ago, that makes no sense. I’m not confident or anything, but the Titans should be the right side.

Tennessee Titans 24 Indianapolis Colts 23 Upset Pick +135

Pick against spread: Indianapolis +3

Confidence: None