Titans

San Francisco 49ers at Tennessee Titans: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 7 NFL Picks, 49ers, Titans, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (4-2) at Tennessee Titans (3-3)

I have legitimate concerns about the 49ers’ offense. Their defense is more than fine once again, as opponents move the chains at a 70% rate. Even without Aldon Smith, they have plenty of talent defensively. However, offensively it’s clear that Colin Kaepernick is not the same as he was last season, at least thus far. As a result, the offense is moving the chains at just a 70% rate as well.

Kaepernick is completing just 55.9% of his passes for an average of 7.6 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions this season. The problem is twofold. One is his lack of receivers. Michael Crabtree and Mario Manningham remain out so Kaepernick has been limited to Anquan Boldin, Vernon Davis, and a bunch of scrubs. Boldin busted out of the gate on fire this season with 13 catches for 208 yards and a touchdown in the opener, but he’s barely matched that in his other 5 games, catching 16 passes for 213 yards and a touchdown. Kaepernick seriously misses Crabtree, his go to receiver down the stretch last year. Crabtree totaled 66 catches for 950 yards and 9 touchdowns in 11 games with Kaepernick last season, over a third of Kaepernick passing production.

The other reason is he hasn’t been able to run the ball nearly as effectively. After rushing for 568 yards and 6 touchdowns on 75 carries in 11 games last year, Kaepernick has rushed for 172 yards and no scores on 31 carries in 6 games this year. This is a growing trend across the league as mobile quarterbacks like Robert Griffin and Cam Newton have also been kept in check on the ground this year as teams have had an off-season to study them and the read option. It’s something Kaepernick will have to adapt to and, while I believe he’s capable of it, it’s something I’ll have to see first.

The Titans, meanwhile, remain a solid team even with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. Obviously he’s the limiting factor, but they have a great defense that only allows opponents to move the chains at a 71% rate, while their offense moves the chains at a 70% rate. They were the 2nd team over the past 2 seasons to cover in Seattle last week. The 49ers are getting better in terms of rate of moving the chains differential every week, after their rough start, so I’m hesitant to bet against them, but these two teams are very even in that aspect, so I immediately want to take the 4 point home underdog. This should be a very close game and even if the 49ers win, it could easily be by a field goal or less.

Update: Jake Locker is going to surprisingly start despite injury. I don’t know how this changing things. I’m going to continue staying away.

San Francisco 49ers 13 Tennessee Titans 12

Pick against spread: Tennessee +4

Confidence: None

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Tennessee Titans: 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#14)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Titans, Uncategorized

Last week: 15 (+1)

Record: 3-3

The Titans hung tough in Seattle and were just the 2nd team to cover the spread there over the past 2 seasons. Ryan Fitzpatrick is obviously a limiting factor for this team and, to be fair, Jake Locker probably would have been as well once his interception rate increased from 0.0%. However, they have plenty of defensive talent and can frustrate opponents, holding them to a 72% rate of moving the chains. They’re in an unbelievable tough part of their schedule right now with Kansas City, Seattle, and now San Francisco back-to-back, but once they get through that, they have a chance to rip off some wins and compete for a playoff spot.

Week 6 Studs

DT Karl Klug

Week 6 Duds

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

LG Andy Levitre

RG Chance Warmack

C Robert Turner

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Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 6 NFL Picks, Seahawks, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (3-2) at Seattle Seahawks (4-1)

You could be pretty rich if you only bet on Seattle at home over the past few years. Since 2007, they are 36-15 ATS at home, including 10-3 ATS as home favorites of a touchdown or more and 6-1 ATS as home favorites of ten points or more. Things have only been better for them at home over the past 2 years as they’ve emerged as one of the top football teams in the NFL. They’ve won all 10 of their home games over the past 2 years and in pretty dominant fashion, outscoring opponents by an average of 20.2 points and covering every time except for once. They haven’t been playing cupcakes either. They played 4 playoff teams at home last year, winning by an average of 10.5 points per game, and then they blew out the 49ers at home week 2, a 29-3 victory.

However, I’m not incredibly confident in the Seahawks ability to cover the 14 here at home this week for two reasons. The first is injuries. Their offensive line has been hammered by injuries over the past few weeks, as both Max Unger and Russell Okung have been out. Those are their only two good offensive linemen and it’s showed as the Seahawks have been destroyed up front lately. It wasn’t noticeable against Jacksonville because they suck, but it’s a big part of the reason why they almost lost in Houston and why they lost in Indianapolis. Unger is expected back this week, but Okung is still the more important offensive lineman. On top of that, stud middle linebacker Bobby Wagner is expected not to play.

The other reason is that the Titans are actually a legitimately solid team, even without Jake Locker. Locker wasn’t the reason they were winning. It was this strong supporting cast, including a tough defense that is allowing opponents to move the chains on just 69% of opportunities. They’ve benefitted from recovering a league best 83.3% of fumbles and a +8 turnover margin as a result, but they are still a solid team.

They lost without Locker at home to the Chiefs, but that game could have gone either way. The Titans lost the game because they lost the turnover battle, but they could have easily won if they didn’t. First downs (20 to 19 Kansas City), yards (353 to 339 Kansas City), and punts (both at 6) were basically even and two of the Titans’ turnovers (a punt block and an interception off a receiver’s hands) were very fluky. The Seahawks should still beat them by more than two touchdowns at home, but I wish this line was lower.

Seattle Seahawks 31 Tennessee Titans 13

Pick against spread: Seattle -14

Confidence: Low

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Tennessee Titans: 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#15)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Titans, Uncategorized

Last week: 16 (+1)

Record: 3-2

The Titans’ game against the Chiefs this week was a matchup between the two teams who had benefitted the most from the turnover battle, as both were an AFC best +9 coming into the game. The Titans lost the game because they lost the turnover battle, but they could have easily won if they didn’t. First downs (20 to 19 Kansas City), yards (353 to 339 Kansas City), and punts (both at 6) were basically even and two of the Titans’ turnovers (a punt block and an interception off a receiver’s hands) were very fluky. This is still a solid team without Jake Locker because of their supporting cast, but Ryan Fitzpatrick under center for 6 or so weeks will hurt their ability to make the playoffs.

Week 5 Studs

LT Michael Roos

LG Andy Levitre

LE Derrick Morgan

SS Bernard Pollard

Week 5 Duds

C Robert Turner

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Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 5 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Titans, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) at Tennessee Titans (3-1)

Kansas City is 4-0 right now. However, their opponents have a combined record of 3-13. They’ve faced 3/4s of arguably the worst division in football, the NFC East, along with a Jacksonville team that’s worse than any team since the 2008 Lions and even that’s a debate. They luck out here though. While Tennessee is 3-1, they are without quarterback Jake Locker for the foreseeable future with a hip injury. Locker wasn’t the reason they were winning. You can credit a tough defense for that.

However, Locker hasn’t thrown an interception in 111 attempts, a huge part of the reason why the Titans have yet to commit a turnover this season. He was probably not going to continue that if he hadn’t gotten hurt, but the drop off from Locker to Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has thrown an interception on 3.6% of his career attempts, will be noticeable in this aspect. Between that and the fact that the Titans won’t recover every single one of their fumbles all season (3 of 3), they definitely won’t be able to count on winning the turnover battle every game going forward.

The Chiefs won’t be able to either. They are +9 in turnovers this season, but this type of thing is really inconsistent. The Chiefs and Giants came into last week’s game +9 and -9 in turnovers respectively and were even in turnovers in that gain. However, I think the Chiefs are more talented than the Titans in almost every aspect. It’ll be a tight game between two defensive lead teams, which is why I’m not confident in the Chiefs as favorites of a field goal on the road, but they should be the right side.

Kansas City Chiefs 17 Tennessee Titans 13

Pick against spread: Kansas City -3

Confidence: None

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Tennessee Titans: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#16)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Titans, Uncategorized

Last week: 16

Record: 3-1

The Titans would be higher on this list if Jake Locker weren’t out for 4-6 weeks with a hip problem. That hurts their playoff chances. Fortunately, they have a strong supporting cast, particularly on defense, where the NFL’s worst unit in 2012, in terms of points per game allowed, is allowing just 17.3 points per game and a 69% rate of moving the chains. Hypothetically, if backup Ryan Fitzpatrick could avoid turnovers, they would still be in position to make the playoffs when Locker returns, but Fitzpatrick couldn’t be trusted to do that in Buffalo, forcing things downfield when he doesn’t have the arm strength necessary to complete those passes.

Week 4 Studs

LT Michael Roos

DT Karl Klug

CB Alterraun Verner

Week 4 Duds

RB Chris Johnson

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Tennessee Titans at New York Jets: 2013 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 4 NFL Picks, Jets, Titans, Uncategorized

New York Jets (2-1) at Tennessee Titans (2-1)

The Titans are for real as a playoff contender. I actually had them in the playoffs last year, but I might have been a year early. I didn’t put them in the playoffs this year, but that looks like a complete oversight right now, especially since they have 7 of my top-200 players from a month ago (Michael Roos, David Stewart, Andy Levitre, Chris Johnson, Jurrell Casey, Derrick Morgan, and Jason McCourty) and their defense was an obvious bounce back candidate after allowing the 8th fewest points in 2011 and the most in 2012, with essentially the same personnel.

Their defense certainly looks closer to what they were in 2011 than in 2012 thus far through 3 games. They’re allowing just 18.7 points per game and have allowed opponents to convert 1st and 10 for a subsequent set of downs 71% of the time. They have a +4% differential in this aspect. Jake Locker remains the limiting factor, but even he seems improved over what he was in his first 2 years in the league, with an improved supporting cast and his first opportunity at consistent, healthy playing time, though he’ll eventually start turning the ball over more often. As a result of the Titans’ strong play, they are 2-1, with wins over San Diego and Pittsburgh and a near win in Houston against the heavily favored Texans.

The Jets are 2-1 as well as they are also doing it with defense. They are allowing opponents to convert 1st and 10 for a subsequent set of downs 57% of the time, best in the NFL, though they are actually only +7% in terms of differential because their offense isn’t moving the ball well at all. While I wouldn’t be surprised if that continued, they’re highly unlikely to be this good defensively all season, just because no one is. They’ve faced the Bills, Buccaneers, and a disoriented Patriots team on Thursday Night. Their competition will get tougher. Offensively, they might not be at 64% all season, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t show much improvement in that aspect. I buy Tennessee’s 2-1 start much more than the Jets’ 2-1 start.

The Jets probably won’t move the ball very well this week against the Titans’ tough defense. I don’t disrespect the Jets’ defense at all, with Demario Davis and Damon Harrison having breakout years and David Harris having a bounce back year. They will make life tough for Jake Locker. However, I like the Titans’ chances of moving the ball against the Jets’ defense more than the Jets’ chances of moving the ball against the Titans’ defense. The reason this is a no confidence pick is because this line is higher than a field goal and there’s always a good chance that a game between two defensive teams ends up being a field goal game, even if one team is noticeably more talented than the other and at home.

Tennessee Titans 17 New York Jets 13

Pick against spread: Tennessee -3.5

Confidence: None

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Tennessee Titans: 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#16)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Titans, Uncategorized

Last week: 17 (-1)

The Titans are much improved over a season ago, but they have had good luck with turnovers that will probably not continue going forward. Their +5 turnover differential is tied for 4th best in the NFL and it’s not like they are forcing a ton of takeaways, forcing 5 through 3 games. It’s just that Jake Locker hasn’t thrown an interception on 87 attempts, which won’t continue. It’s not like he’s excelling in other areas as a passer (though he did rush for 68 yards on 5 attempts last week), completing 58.6% of his passes for an average of 6.6 YPA. They are also recovering 85.7% of all fumbles, tied for best in the NFL, which is highly unlikely to continue.

Week 3 Studs

QB Jake Locker

WR Nate Washington

LT Michael Roos

DT Jurrell Casey

Week 3 Duds

WR Kenny Britt

LOLB Zach Brown

MLB Moise Fokou

CB Coty Sensabaugh

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San Diego Chargers at Tennessee Titans: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, Chargers, Titans, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (1-1) at Tennessee Titans (1-1)

These two teams have had eerily similar starts to their season. Both have almost beaten the Texans in what was seen as a “surprise,” even though the Texans haven’t really been that good since the middle of last season. Both also pulled upset wins in Pennsylvania against a team that might not have been as good as we thought they were at the time. Still, both of these teams have exceeded expectations thus far this season.

They also rank 18th and 20th (Tennessee and San Diego respectively) in terms of how frequently they convert 1st and 10 for a subsequent set of first downs, as opposed to how frequently they allow their opponents to do so. The Titans are doing it with defense, allowing opponents to convert 68.4% of their first and 10s for a subsequent set of downs, while the Chargers are doing it with offense, converting 82.5% of first and 10s for a subsequent set of downs. At the same time, the Titans’ offense has been miserable, while the Chargers’ defense can’t stop anyone.

The question here is which of these teams, if any, is for real, at least in terms of being a pseudo-playoff contender in the weaker AFC. I think we’ll have a better idea of that after the game, but that doesn’t do us any good before the game. However, I feel that the Titans are for real, while the Chargers aren’t. For one, I think the Titans are more overall talented. They had 7 of my pre-season top-200 players, while the Chargers had just 1, including none on offense. The reason they’re moving the ball so well is because Philip Rivers seems to be having a resurgence and that could continue, but his offensive supporting cast is really not that good, so I don’t expect the Chargers to continue to be this efficient offensively.

The Titans’ defense, meanwhile, could continue to do this. They were dead last in points per game allowed last season, but they ranked 8th in 2011 with essentially the same personnel. They were one of the wild cards of this season for me for that reason and it’s very possible they are playing much closer to how they played in 2011 defensively than 2012. If that continues, they will continue to be a tough team to beat, even if Jake Locker continues throwing his name into the group of 2011 1st round quarterback busts with Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder.

For that reason, I think the Titans win here and cover a 3 point spread at home (which traditionally means two teams are even). However, I’m not that confident because the Titans are in a rough situation playing their home opener during week 3. Since 1989, teams that have played their week 3 game at home after starting the season with back to back road games are just 20-40 ATS. Starting the year on the road like that takes so much out of you. They should still be the right side though.

Tennessee Titans 20 San Diego Chargers 15

Pick against spread: Tennessee -3

Confidence: Low

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Tennessee Titans: 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#17)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Titans, Uncategorized

Last week: 19

The Titans were one of the real wild cards for me this season, as they were 8th in opponent’s scoring in 2011 and 32nd in 2012 with essentially the same unit. They had a very impressive week 1 performance in Pittsburgh and after hanging with the Texans and forcing them to overtime in Houston, the Titans definitely look for real as a playoff contender in the weak AFC. Their offense will hold them back and I don’t think Jake Locker is the long-term answer, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if they finished as a top-10 scoring defense again. They have a lot of young, talented players.

Week 2 Studs

FB Colin Mooney

LT Michael Roos

CB Alterraun Verner

SS George Wilson

Week 2 Duds

LG Andy Levitre

RG Chance Warmack

DT Antonio Johnson

MLB Moise Fukou

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