Titans

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans: Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 17 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Titans

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-13) at Tennessee Titans (5-10)

Aside from this being a divisional matchup, this is a completely meaningless game for these two teams. Both are out of the playoffs by a long shot. I have a rule against making significant plays on completely meaningless games. If the teams might not care about a game, I shouldn’t either. There’s just no way to predict what kind of effort either side is going to give.

However, if I had to take a side, it’d be Jacksonville. The Titans have no business laying more than a field goal against anyone. They are worse than even their 5-10 record would suggest they are the 3rd worst team in the NFL in points differential, thanks to a league leading 6 losses by 21 or more. They rank 31st in net points per drive, DVOA, and weighted DVOA as a result, even worse than the Jaguars.

They Jaguars may only have 2 wins, but they rank 30th, 30th, and 29th in those 3 things respectively. They already beat the Titans once this season and they have a good chance to do so again. If you take the difference between the Jaguars’ net points per drive and the Titans’, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per team per game), and add 2.5 points for home field, you get that Tennessee should be just 2 point favorites here , rather than 4. Even if they don’t win, I like getting the points with the Jaguars.

Public lean: Tennessee (60% range)

Tennessee Titans 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 23

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +4 (-110) 2 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Tennessee Titans: Week 17 NFL Power Rankings (#25)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 17 NFL Power Rankings, Titans

Last week: 25 (+0)

Record: 5-10

Net points per drive: -0.89 (31st)

DVOA: -32.5% (31st)

Weighted DVOA: -32.0% (31st)

Studs

LT Michael Roos: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 41 pass block snaps

RT Byron Stingily: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 41 pass block snaps, run blocked for 2 yards on 3 attempts

LE Derrick Morgan: 2 quarterback hits and 3 quarterback hurries on 36 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

Duds

QB Jake Locker: 13 of 30 for 140 yards, 1 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 1 throw away, 2 batted passes, 3 drops, 60.5 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 16 of 40 drop backs (6 sacks, 1 scramble, 2 of 9, 1 interception, 1 throw away, 1 drop)

RB Chris Johnson: Rushed for 28 yards (15 after contact) on 11 attempts, 1 broken tackle, allowed 2 sacks and 1 quarterback hit on 8 pass block snaps, caught 2 passes for 13 yards on 2 attempts

LG Mitch Petrus: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 22 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 8 yards on 1 attempt

C Kyle DeVan: Allowed 1 sack and 1 quarterback hit on 19 pass block snaps, 1 penalty

WR Nate Washington: Caught 2 passes for 15 yards on 6 attempts on 37 pass snaps, 3.5 YAC per catch, 1 drop

TE Craig Stevens: Caught 1 pass for 7 yards on 2 attempts on 27 pass snaps, 7.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

DT Sen’Derrick Marks: Did not record a pressure on 29 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops, 2 missed tackles

LOLB Zach Brown: 9 solo tackles, 5 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 penalty, 1 quarterback hurry on 11 blitzes, allowed 5 catches for 67 yards on 5 attempts

MLB Will Witherspoon: 5 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 3 blitzes, allowed 3 catches for 44 yards on 3 attempts

FS Michael Griffin: Allowed 1 catch for 31 yards on 2 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

CB Jason McCourty: Allowed 7 catches for 67 yards and a touchdown on 11 attempts, 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 2 missed tackles

CB Alterraun Verner: Allowed 5 catches for 41 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist

CB Coty Sensabaugh: Allowed 2 catches for 31 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 missed tackle

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers: Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 16 NFL Picks, Packers, Titans

Tennessee Titans (5-9) at Green Bay Packers (10-4)

I’ve called Green Bay overrated because of all their injuries and I still think there’s a lot of truth to that. Injuries at running back have left them with a washed up Ryan Grant, an unproven DuJuan Harris, and fullback John Kuhn to carry the rock. The loss of Bryan Bulaga at right tackle has forced them to start undrafted rookie Don Barclay, who is really struggling. They’ve lost Jordy Nelson from their receiving corps, right as Greg Jennings returned, and Jennings has barely done anything since returning.

Defensively, they have lost linebackers Nick Perry and Desmond Bishop for the season. Perry’s absence, along with the lack of depth at rush linebacker and the ineptitude of their defensive line have left them with one viable pass rusher, Clay Matthews. Bishop’s replacement, DJ Smith, is also out for the season, leaving converted rush linebacker Brad Jones starting at inside linebacker. Charles Woodson also remains out.

The Packers were so good in 2010 despite injuries because they still had key defensive players healthy. Clay Matthews, Desmond Bishop, Cullen Jenkins, BJ Raji, Tramon Williams, Charles Woodson, and Nick Collins were all huge for them on the league’s 2nd ranked scoring defense. Bishop is out for the year and Woodson is out for at least the reminder of the regular season. Jenkins left as a free agent and Raji hasn’t been the same since 2010. Nick Collins had to retire because of injury, leaving Williams and now that he’s healthy Matthews as the only ones of those 7 healthy and playing near their respective 2010 levels this year. They’ve added some nice young players in the meantime, like Casey Hayward, but it’s not enough for them to be considered as good currently as they once were.

Last year, they were so good despite a rough defense because they dominated the turnover battle and scored 35.0 points per game. This year, thanks to injuries and the pure unsustainability of that 35.0 points per game figure, they are averaging just 24.6 points per game (Mason Crosby isn’t helping matters). That’s good, but a far cry from last season. They didn’t come into this season with the goal of being the league’s #13 scoring offense. Meanwhile, their turnover differential is down from +24 to +6. All of this has combined to expose a vulnerable and now injury riddled defense.

As a result, they aren’t playing like the Packers of 2010 and 2011.  Their impressive wins collection is scarce and includes a blowout in Houston, two wins over the Bears, a home win over the Vikings, and a 14 point win at home over the Cardinals. In their other 10 games, they don’t have a single double digit win despite playing Detroit (twice), St. Louis, and Jacksonville. However, in spite of that, the odds makers can boost the spread on name value and know everyone will keep betting, as is the case this week as the Packers are a heavy public lean. I love fading the public because they always lose money in the long run.

Given that the Packers have a real lack of blowout wins this season, I’m instantly drawn to the 12.5 points with Tennessee. The problem is that Tennessee has had no shortage of blowout losses. They’ve lost 5 games by 21 or more and 6 of their 9 losses by come by 14 or more. As a result, even with the Packers’ lack of blowout wins, we’re not really getting any line value here.

The Titans rank 29th in net points per drive at -0.65, while the Packers rank 10th at 0.23. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average numbers of drives per team per game), and add 2.5 for home field, you get that the Packers should be favored by 12, which is right where this line is. DVOA actually suggests that the Packers might be getting some line value here, as they rank 5th in weighted and regular DVOA, while the Titans rank 28th and 29th respectively.

I’m still going with the Titans for several reasons, however. The Packers’ lack of blowout wins is obviously one of them and in spite of the Titans’ large list of blowout losses, only one (a 14 point loss to the Texans) has come since a weird week 9 game in which the Bears took a 28-2 lead almost solely off special teams and returns. Before that, their last one was week 5.

They really got out of the gate horribly, with 4 losses of 21+ in their first 5 games, but since then, their young defense has settled down, allowing 25.0 points per game, 21.8 per game, if you exclude that weird Chicago game which wasn’t really their defense’s fault. They’ve finally started playing like I thought they would before the season, coming off a year in which they actually ranked 8th in the NFL in scoring defense.

The second reason is that there are several prominent trends on Tennessee’s side. Dogs are 108-67 ATS before being favorites since 2011 and the Titans just face the Jaguars next week. Going off that, non-conference dogs are 69-44 ATS before being divisional favorites since 2002. Meanwhile, Teams are 32-11 ATS as non-divisional double digit dogs before being divisional favorites since 1989. If you combine the last two trends, you get that non-conference double digit dogs are 11-5 ATS before being divisional favorites since 1989.

That makes a lot of sense. This is Tennessee’s Super Bowl. All they have left on their schedule is the crappy Jaguars. There are no distractions for them and they’ll be able to give the Packers their all. Green Bay, meanwhile, obviously needs a win here to remain in the hunt for a first round bye, but they don’t need to blow the Titans out and they might not give 100% effort for some 5-9 AFC team, especially with a divisional contest next on the horizon as they face the Vikings next week. Worst case scenario, I like my chances of getting a backdoor cover here or of covering because Mason Crosby left some points on the field for the Packers. It’s not a significant play, but the Titans should be the right side.

Public lean: Green Bay (80% range)

Sharps lean: GB 11 TEN 4

Final thoughts: Late reverse line movement has driven this down to -11, so sharps in general are probably on the Titans. I’m sticking at 2, however.

Green Bay Packers 27 Tennessee Titans 17

Pick against spread: Tennessee +12.5 (-110) 2 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Tennessee Titans: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#25)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Titans

Last week: 24 (-1)

Record: 5-9

Net points per drive: -0.65 (29th)

DVOA: -25.9% (29th)

Weighted DVOA: -23.0% (28th)

The Titans somehow pulled out a win at home on Monday Night Football, despite having more penalties (14) than first downs (12) and almost more punts (10). This is because the Jets turned the ball over 5 times, but when teams win the turnover battle by 5, they win by an average of 17 points per game and the Titans just won by 4. I’m still not impressed at all with a team whose points differential (-111) is 5th worst in the NFL (Kansas City, Jacksonville, Oakland, Philadelphia). They definitely won’t win in Green Bay next week, but they might not even win at home against Jacksonville week 17. This team is not as good as their mediocre 5-9 record.

Studs

CB Jason McCourty: Allowed 2 catches for 22 yards on 4 attempts, 2 interceptions, 5 solo tackles, 2 stops

LOLB Zach Brown: Allowed 3 catches for 5 yards on 4 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 7 stops, 1 penalty, 2 sacks and 1 quarterback hurry on 11 blitzes

FS Michael Griffin: 5 solo tackles, 1 quarterback hurry on 3 blitzes, did not allow a catch on 3 attempts, 2 interceptions

LE Derrick Morgan: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 4 quarterback hurries on 34 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 3 assists, 2 stops

Duds

RG Deuce Lutui: Allowed 2 quarterback hurries on 29 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 6 yards on 6 attempts

WR Kenny Britt: Caught 1 pass for 7 yards on 3 attempts on 24 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch

MLB Tim Shaw: Allowed 2 catches for 39 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts, 7 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hit on 3 blitzes

ROLB Akeem Ayers: 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 2 missed tackles, 1 sack on 8 blitzes, allowed 1 catch for 9 yards on 2 attempts

RE Kamerion Wimbley: 1 quarterback hurry on 35 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops

DT Sen’Derrick Marks: 1 quarterback hurry on 29 pass rush snaps, 2 penalties, 1 batted pass, 1 assist

P Brett Kern: 10 punts for 391 yards, 4 inside 20, 1 return for 7 yards, 36.4 net yards per punt

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Jets, Titans

New York Jets (6-7) at Tennessee Titans (4-9)

The Titans are 4-9, which isn’t very good at all, but if you can believe it, they’re even worse than their record. Of their 9 losses, 5 have come by 21 or more and only one of their 4 wins have come by more than a field goal. As a result, they rank 29th in net points per drive, DVOA, and weighted DVOA. The Jets aren’t as good as their 6-7 record either, as they are 24th in net points per drive and DVOA and 25th in weighted DVOA, but the Titans don’t deserve to be favorites here.

Using the net points per drive method, the Jets should be 1.5 point favorites here. The Titans are at -0.76 in points per drive and the Jets are at -0.38. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team), and add 2.5 to Tennessee’s side for home field, you get that the Jets should be 1.5 point favorites, rather than the Titans being that.

The Jets also have the trends on their side. Teams are 105-62 ATS as dogs before being favorites in 2011 and they host the Chargers next week. That trend becomes 116-59 ATS since 2008 when their opponent will next be dogs and the Titans have a much bigger game in Green Bay next week. When all 3 games (current, next, and opponent’s next) are non-divisional, that trend is 35-15 ATS since 2008.

Speaking of that Green Bay game, teams are 25-48 ATS as favorites before being double digit dogs, which they should be in Green Bay next week. Going off that, the Titans are in the sandwich situation. Teams are 59-85 ATS since 2008 as favorites off a loss as dogs before being dogs, including 44-67 ATS as favorites of less than a touchdown. For good teams, this is a huge breather spot. For bad teams, well they don’t deserve to be favorites and the Titans fall into that latter category. It’s also worth noting that the Jets are 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) as dogs or favorites of 3 or less and 0-6 SU (2-4 ATS) as dogs of more than 3. They’re beating up on mediocre and crappy teams this season and I expect that to continue this week.

Rather than putting 3 units on the spread and 1 unit on the money line, I’m going to put all 4 on the money line. I was burned doing this a few weeks ago because the Buccaneers lost by 1 as 1.5 point dogs and I took the money line instead. However, that was just the 8th time in the last 23 years that a 1.5 point or 1 point dog had lost a game by exactly 1 point. Going into that game, since 1989, there had been 414 teams who have been favorites of less than 2. Of those 414 teams, only 7 of those teams lost by exactly 1 point, about 1.7%. I still say that was the smart move after some thought and I’m going to do that again here. It’s not worth the extra 20 cents on the dollar for something that will hurt me about 2% of the time, however terrible I feel when it does.

Public lean: Tennessee (50% range)

New York Jets 20 Tennessee Titans 16 Upset Pick +110 4 units

Pick against spread: NY Jets +1.5 (-110) 0 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Tennessee Titans: Week 15 NFL Power Rankings (#24)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 15 NFL Power Rankings, Titans

Last week: 24 (+0)

Record: 4-9

Net points per drive: -0.76 (29th)

DVOA: -29.1% (29th)

Weighted DVOA: -27.1% (29th)

The Titans have been worse than their record all season and after coming up short against another team who is worse than their record, the Colts, the Titans sit at 4-9, which is still better than they are. However, easy home games against the Jets and Jaguars should get them at least 5, maybe 6 wins, with a trip to Green Bay as their only unwinnable game on their remaining schedule.

Studs

RG Deuce Lutui: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 14 yards on 2 attempts

LT Michael Roos: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 15 yards on 4 attempts

WR Kenny Britt: Caught 8 passes for 143 yards on 9 attempts on 38 pass snaps, 5.4 YAC per catch, 1 penalty

LE Jairus Wynn: 1 sack and 3 quarterback hurries on 10 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackles, 2 stops

DT Karl Klug: 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 9 pass rush snaps, 1 assist, 2 stops

DT Sen’Derrick Marks: 5 quarterback hurries on 26 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 4 solo tackles, 4 stops

LE Derrick Morgan: 1 sack, 3 quarterback hits, and 5 quarterback hurries on 28 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

P Brett Kern: 3 punts for 165 yards, 2 inside 20, 2 returns for 24 yards, 47.0 net yards per punt

Duds

WR Nate Washington: Caught 1 pass for 15 yards on 6 attempts on 42 pass snaps, 4.0 YAC per catch, 2 interceptions when thrown to

RE Kamerion Wimbley: 1 quarterback hurry on 31 pass rush snaps, no tackles

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts: Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Picks, Colts, Titans

Tennessee Titans (4-8) at Indianapolis Colts (8-4)

Last week, I bet against the Colts because I felt they were an overrated team and the Lions were an underrated team. I felt the Colts were overrated because they’ve had a very easy schedule and they’ve actually had a -43 points differential despite their then 7-4 record. They’ve won just 1 game by more than a touchdown, but they’ve lost 3 by more than 20. The Lions were the exact opposite, as their points differential of -13 was much better than their then 4-7 record and they also had the much tougher schedule.

The Colts were 7-4, because of a 6-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less, something that tends to even out over time. That’s what Pythagorean Expectation is based on. Teams who win a game by a touchdown or less will win their next game just 52% of the time if it’s decided by a touchdown or less. I don’t feel, with a few exceptions, that certain teams are good or bad in close games. Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have won close games so consistently in their career that they have to be exceptions and Matt Ryan might be on the verge of joining them, but I’m not ready to put the rookie Luck in that group.

Well what happened? The pick was working out pretty well for a while. The Lions led by 12 with about 3 minutes left. The Colts got one touchdown and they were able to get the ball back and score another one to pull off a miraculous comeback, winning 35-33 on the final play of the game and destroying what looked like at least a push (Detroit -5). The real line for that game, based on points per drive, was at Detroit -9 and the public action was still on Indianapolis. In spite of that, the line was climbing. Everything about it seemed like a trap line, but the Colts still busted it.

I’m still not really willing to admit that Luck is in that Manning/Brady group, but even if he is, even if he has some sort of special ability to win close games, I really like the Titans here as dogs of more than 4. There are other reasons why, which I’ll get into later, but at the very least, I don’t have to worry about any sort of Luck magic throwing this one off. The Colts have 3 wins by more than 4 points all season. One was in overtime, one was on the strength of a special teams touchdown (7 points), and the other one was against the Blaine Gabbert led Jaguars. Only that 7 point win against the Bills was a home game. They can win yet another close game and I can still win against the spread.

We are actually getting some line value with the Colts. I like to use net points per drive to compute real line. Net points per drive is offensive points per drive minus offensive points allowed per drive and it grades teams on a per drive basis. You can take the difference between the two teams’ net points per drives and multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game) and add 3 points for home field advantage.

This suggests that the Colts should be 8 point favorites. While the Colts’ points differential is much worse than their record, the same can also be said about the Titans, though to a lesser extent. The Titans are 4-8, which isn’t great, but not as bad as their -111 points differential, which is the 4th worst in the league, only ahead of Kansas City, Jacksonville, and Oakland. The Titans have a whopping 5 losses by 21 or more this season, and only one win by more than a field goal. The Colts haven’t really been blowing teams out, but the Titans have been getting blown out by almost everyone. That’s one of the concerns I have with the Titans.

However, that 8 point line doesn’t hold up to DVOA. I like to look at DVOA to compare because it is net points per drive based, but takes into account other things, including strength of schedule. The Colts rank 28th in DVOA (27th in weighted) and the Titans rank 29th. This makes sense as the Colts are playing a last place schedule, while the Titans are playing a 2nd place schedule. The Colts have also yet to face Houston, who Tennessee has played twice.

The Colts are 23rd in net points per drive to Tennessee’s 29th, but it doesn’t look like that 8 point real line holds up against DVOA. In fact, since these teams are right next to each other in those rankings, the 5.5 point favorites the Colts actually are might even be too high. It’s interesting to note that the public is predictably pounding the Colts, but the line has dropped from -6 to -5.5 and is even at -5 in some places. Not only do I like to fade the public whenever I see it fit, as the public always loses money in the long run, this one looks like it has trap line written all over it. The odds makers want people to bet on the Colts, possibly because they also feel they’re an overrated team and you never really want to do what the odds makers want you to. There’s a reason they’re rich.

Aside from the line stuff, there are other reasons with the Titans are the play this week. When these teams played earlier this season, the Colts pulled the upset as road dogs in Tennessee, winning in overtime by 6 (one of their 3 wins by 4 or more that I mentioned earlier). Well, that actually helps the Titans this week. Teams are 51-25 ATS as road dogs trying to avenge a same season loss as home favorites since 2002.

This is probably because it’s so tough to sweep a season series, especially when two teams have comparable talent levels, which is often the case between teams who alternate dogs/favorites depending on the home team in their two matchups. It might sound weird to say these teams have similar talents levels, but everything I mentioned earlier would suggest that they might be more similar talent wise than you’d think.

Meanwhile, the Titans are dogs before being favorites as they host the lowly Jets next week. Teams are 102-57 ATS in this spot in the last 2 seasons as teams tend to be extra focused as dogs with no distractions on the horizon. That trend gets even more powerful when the favorite in the matchup will next be dogs, as the Colts will be next week, when they go to Houston. Dogs are 114-57 ATS since 2008 before being favorites when their opponent will next be dogs.

Going off that, divisional home favorites are 15-47 ATS before being divisional road dogs since 2002, including a ridiculous 4-26 ATS when their opponent will next be favorites. This game simply means different things for these two teams. For the Colts, it’s a chance to catch their breath between a tough comeback and before heading to play the biggest game of their season in Houston. For the Titans, this is by far the biggest game of their season left and a big divisional revenge game. Besides, that 4-26 ATS trend is very, very hard to ignore. Add in that Indianapolis is overrated and that this may be a trap line and the Titans are one of my 3 co-picks of the week.

Public lean: Indianapolis (80% range)

Sharps lean: TEN 15 IND 11

Final thoughts: This line has dropped to -4.5 and -4 in most places. This has trap line written all over it. I’m glad I got this at +5.5. I can’t add any more units for that reason, but this might be my favorite play of the week.

Tennessee Titans 20 Indianapolis Colts 17 Upset Pick +200

Pick against spread: Tennessee +5.5 (-110) 4 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Tennessee Titans: Week 14 NFL Power Rankings (#24)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 14 NFL Power Rankings, Titans

Last week: 26 (+2)

Record: 4-8

Net points per drive: -0.8 (29th)

DVOA: -28.9% (29th)

Weighted DVOA: -26.6% (29th)

Studs

C Fernando Velasco: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 62 pass block snaps, run blocked for 14 yards on 3 attempts

CB Alterraun Verner: Allowed 4 catches for 27 yards on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

Duds

QB Jake Locker: 21 of 45 for 309 yards, 1 touchdown, and 3 interceptions, 2 batted passes, 1 throw away, 4 drops, 65.6 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 14 of 55 drop backs (5 sacks, 3 scrambles, 2 of 6, 1 interception, 1 drop), rushed for 38 yards (20 after contact) on 4 attempts, 1 broken tackle, 1 fumble

RB Chris Johnson: Rushed for 51 yards (29 after contact) on 13 attempts, 3 broken tackles, 1 fumble, caught 4 passes for 20 yards on 4 attempts, allowed 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 11 pass block snaps

RG Deuce Lutui: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 4 quarterback hurries on 62 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 33 yards on 3 attempts

LG Kevin Matthews: Allowed 1 sack and 1 quarterback hit on 46 pass block snaps, 3 penalties

WR Kenny Britt: Caught 2 passes for 40 yards and a touchdown on 8 attempts on 54 pass snaps, 1.5 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 1 interception when thrown to

TE Craig Stevens: Was not thrown to on 8 attempts, allowed 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 5 pass block snaps

FS Michael Griffin: Allowed 1 catch for 54 yards and a touchdown on 1 attempt, 3 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

LOLB Zach Brown: 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, allowed 4 catches for 42 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts

RE Kamerion Wimbley: Did not record a pressure on 25 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans: Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 13 NFL Picks, Texans, Titans

Houston Texans (10-1) at Tennessee Titans (4-7)

Tennessee may be 4-7, which isn’t a terrible record, but they are a terrible team. Of their 7 losses, 5 have come by 21 or more points and only one of their wins came by more than a field goal. Because of this, they are -97 in points differential. Only Philadelphia, Oakland, Jacksonville, and Kansas City are worse. Going off of this, they rank 30th in net points per drive, 29th in DVOA, and 29th in weighted DVOA. They are a team just as bad as the Eagles, Raiders, Chiefs, and Jaguars. In fact, last week they lost to the Jaguars even though they had a trend that was 22-3 ATS since 2002 on their side and the Jaguars had one that was 18-45 ATS since 2002 on their side. They’re terrible.

The Texans, meanwhile, are one of the better teams in the NFL. They rank 3rd in net points per drive and 8th in DVOA and weighted DVOA. If we use the net points per drive method of computing line value, which takes the difference between the two teams’ net points per drives and multiplies by 11 (the average amount of drives per game) and adds 3 points either way for homefield, we get that Houston should actually be -14 point favorites here on the road.

Now, the difference between where these two teams rank in DVOA is slightly smaller than the difference between where these two teams rank in net points per drive, which matters because DVOA is net points per drive based, but takes into account other things like strength of schedule. However, it’s not enough to make up for the fact that we’re getting 7 points of line value with the Texans. Besides, after going to overtime with 2 inferior teams, I think the Texans are due for a big win. Remember when they played the Jets close as double digit favorites and then lost at home to the Packers? The next week they blasted Baltimore, who isn’t nearly as bad as Tennessee.

There are 3 trends in Tennessee’s favor. Home dogs off a loss as road favorites are 49-36 ATS since 1989, 11-6 ATS if both games are divisional. As I mentioned, the Titans lost in Jacksonville last week as road favorites. Meanwhile, teams are 27-46 ATS before being dogs on Monday Night football since 2008. The Texans go to New England for a Monday Night game next week and might overlook these crappy Titans for that game. Besides, their last 3 games are against Minnesota and Indianapolis twice, so this is their last easy game. Meanwhile, road favorites of 7 or more are 8-23 ATS before being dogs since 2002.

This isn’t a good spot for the Texans. They are also a very, very heavy public lean, which is always a warning flag. The public always loses money in the long run, so I like to fade the public as often as I can. The odds makers know what they’re doing, so it’s not a bad idea to want to be on their side as often as possible. However, we’re getting so much line value with the Texans and they have every reason to be focused after two near losses to inferior opponents. They should be the right side.

Public lean: Houston (90% range)

Sharps lean: HOU 23 TEN 5

Final update: Very interestingly, the sharps all really like San Francisco, Houston, and New England as touchdown favorites inside the division. Those might be the top-3 teams in the NFL, so it makes sense and the fact that the sharps love them kind of negates the heavy public leans. I don’t want to go higher than 3 on any of them because, on principle, I rarely make big plays on lines higher than a touchdown (what happened between San Francisco and Seattle earlier this year is a perfect example of why), but I can up this one and the San Francisco one to 2 units. New England is already there.

Houston Texans 27 Tennessee Titans 17

Pick against spread: Houston -7 (-110) 2 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Tennessee Titans: Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#26)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Titans

Last week: 23 (-3)

Record: 4-7

Net points per drive: -0.77 (30th)

DVOA: -28.9% (29th)

Weighted DVOA: -28.8% (29th)

Tier 7: Terrible

Studs

CB Alterraun Verner: Allowed 2 catches for 26 yards on 7 attempts, 1 interception, 2 pass deflections, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

LOLB Zach Brown: 2 sacks on 8 blitzes, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle, allowed 3 catches for 14 yards on 5 attempts

ROLB Akeem Ayers: 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 5 blitzes, 1 penalty, 3 solo tackles, 4 stops, was not thrown on

P Brett Kern: 4 punts for 201 yards, 1 inside 20, 1 return for 5 yards, 49.0 net yards per punt

Duds

RT David Stewart: Did not allow a pressure on 45 pass block snaps

SS Jordan Babineaux: 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 missed tackles, allowed 1 catch for 59 yards and a touchdown on 2 attempts

MLB Colin McCarthy: 2 solo tackles, 1 stop, 3 missed tackles, allowed 1 catch for 23 yards on 1 attempt

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]