Titans

Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills: Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 7 NFL Picks, Bills, Titans

Tennessee Titans (2-4) at Buffalo Bills (3-3)

These two teams are actually very, very similar. Tennessee ranks 29th in yards per play differential and Buffalo ranks 30th. Buffalo also ranks 30th in rate of sustaining drives differential, while Tennessee ranks 31st. I picked both teams for big plays last week because, in addition to other reasons, both teams were coming off back to back losses of 21 or more. Teams in that situation are 33-16 ATS since 2002 and are now 35-16 ATS after both pulled off upset victories last week.

However, both teams are now in bad spots because of how they won last week. Both teams won by a field goal late. Tennessee won at home by a field goal as dogs. Teams are 28-50 ATS in that spot since 2002. Buffalo won in overtime on the road as dogs. Teams are 16-31 ATS the following week as favorites since 2002 as Buffalo is indeed favored in this one.

So if these two teams are so similar, why do I like Tennessee? Well, there are 6 reasons. For one, Tennessee is better rested. Teams are 112-92 ATS off Thursday Night Football, which isn’t huge or anything, but it’s notable and it definitely makes sense. A bigger trend is that underdogs before being favorites are 81-43 ATS since the start of last year, including 13-5 ATS off a win as dogs. If you go back to 2008 to get a larger sample size, teams are 38-19 ATS as dogs before being favorites off a win as dogs.

The 3rd reason is that, while these two teams match up similarly statistically, look who these two teams have played. Buffalo has played the Jets, Chiefs, Browns, Patriots, 49ers, and Cardinals, while Tennessee has had to deal with the Patriots, Chargers, Lions, Texans, Vikings, and most recently the Steelers, a much tougher schedule. The 4th reason is that we do have a substantial public lean on Buffalo right now and I love to fade the public, especially on substantial leans. The 5th reason is that teams coming off a victory off of two straight losses by 21 or more, like both of these teams are, are 15-9 ATS as dogs, but 3-5 ATS as favorites the following week.

The final reason is that, we’ll these teams are even, we’re getting a half point more with Buffalo than we should. I know that may sound insignificant, but since 2002, 15.5% of all NFL teams have been decided by a field goal or more. At some places, this line is +3 (+105) and some it’s -3.5 (-120). I recommend paying for the extra half point if you can. It’s valuable and you’ll probably need it with two teams as evenly matched as these. The money line is a good value too.

Public lean: Buffalo (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Tennessee covers)

Sharps lean: TEN 12 BUF 9

Final update: No change

Tennessee Titans 24 Buffalo Bills 23 Upset Pick +165

Pick against spread: Tennessee +3.5 (-120) 2 units

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Tennessee Titans: Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#28)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Titans

Last week: 26 (-2)

Record: 2-4

The Titans move down despite a “surprising” home upset victory of the Steelers because two teams previously ranked below than (NY Jets and Tampa Bay) had more impressive victories last week and because none of the teams previously ranked right above Tennessee lost this week. New Orleans and Carolina move down 2 spots on their bye for this same reason. Tennessee’s home victory was not that impressive. Oakland did the same thing against Pittsburgh and they suck. Pittsburgh just sucks on the road and weird things happen on Thursday nights. Tennessee stills ranks 29th in yards per play differential and 31st in rate of sustaining drives differential.

Studs

C Fernando Velasco: Did not allow a pressure on 50 pass block snaps, run blocked for 31 yards on 7 attempts

LE Derrick Morgan: 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 3 quarterback hurries on 38 pass rush snaps, 1 pass deflection, 1 penalty, 2 solo tackles, 3 stops

RE Kamerion Wimbley: 9 quarterback hurries on 42 pass rush snaps, 1 assist

P Brett Kern: 5 punts for 261 yards, 3 inside 20, 4 returns for 17 yards, 44.8 net yards per punt

Duds

MLB Colin McCarthy: 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 2 missed tackles, allowed 4 catches for 76 yards on 5 attempts

ROLB Akeem Ayers: Allowed 3 catches for 37 yards on 3 attempts, 1 penalty, 2 solo tackles, 3 assists, 2 stops, 3 missed tackles

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Tennessee Titans: Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#26)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Titans

Last week: 20 (-6)

Record: 1-4

This is not the start the Titans envisioned as a young team coming off a 9-7 season. They stand at 1-4 with the league’s worst points differential. However, they’ve played an awfully tough schedule, which is why they aren’t farther down on this list. Their 4 losses have come against New England, San Diego, Houston and even the Vikings, who they played last week, were much better than projected before the season. Things don’t get easier with the Steelers coming to town this Thursday Night, but, for a variety of reasons, I think the Titans have a very good shot to win this week.

Studs

C Fernando Velasco: Did not allow a pressure on 53 pass block snaps, run blocked for 24 yards on 7 attempts

DT Mike Martin: 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 17 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 5 stops

LOLB Zach Brown: 6 solo tackles, 3 assists, 3 stops, allowed 2 catches for 12 yards on 2 attempts

Duds

OT Michael Roos: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 4 quarterback hurries on 53 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for -2 yards on 1 attempt

RT David Stewart: Allowed 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 53 pass block snaps, 2 penalties

LG Steve Hutchinson: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 53 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 2 yards on 1 attempt

RB Chris Johnson: Rushed for 24 yards (19 after contact) on 15 carries, 1 fumble, 2 broken tackles, caught 1 pass for 5 yards on 1 attempt

WR Damian Williams: Caught 1 pass for 9 yards on 3 attempts on 38 pass snaps, 2.0 YAC per catch, 1 penalty

WR Kenny Britt: Caught 2 passes for 23 yards on 5 attempts on 23 pass snaps, 5.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

FS Michael Griffin: Allowed 1 catch for 19 yards on 1 attempt, 3 solo tackles, 2 assists, 4 missed tackles

LE Derrick Morgan: 1 quarterback hurry on 31 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackles, 1 stop

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans: Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 6 NFL Picks, Steelers, Titans

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-4)

Week 3, the Steelers traveled to play a significantly inferior team, missing two of their top defenders, and yet were still heavily bet by the public as road favorites. They lost outright and a lot of people lost a lot of money. 3 weeks later, the Steelers have had a bye, a 2 point win at home over an Eagles team that once again lost the turnover battle, and the Steelers are in the same exact situation. Apparently the public hasn’t learned because Pittsburgh is once again being heavily bet by the public (and you know how much I love to bet against heavy public leans).

The Steelers absolutely suck on the road against bad teams outside of the division under Mike Tomlin. They are 3-12 ATS as 3+ road favorites outside of the division since Tomlin took over in 2007. They just don’t really seem to care about these games. On top of the Oakland loss, the Steelers won by just 4 in Kansas City against Tyler Palko last year and by just 3 in Indianapolis against Curtis Painter and the eventually 2-14 Colts last year, so don’t tell me the Titans can’t cover this game because they’re not talented enough. None of those teams were either.

On top of that, they will be missing Troy Polamalu and probably LaMarr Woodley. Both were lost last week and on a short week, the odds are really against them being healthy enough to play by Thursday Night. Polamalu has already been ruled out. Against Oakland, both Polamalu and James Harrison were out. Woodley’s loss is easily equal to the loss of Harrison (at this stage in their respective careers), while Polamalu’s injury is the one that really hurts.

Excluding last week, during which Polamalu left in the middle, the Steelers are now 7-8 since 2009 without him, allowing 21.6 points per game and 27-8, allowing 14.4 points per game, with him. That’s not all him, but a lot of that is him. He’s their only irreplaceable defensive player and his mere presence can disrupt passing plays and running plays. Last week, the Steelers had held the Eagles scoreless on 3 drives before Polamalu went out and ended up giving up 14 points on their next 5 drives. His absence will be huge.

Besides, we’re getting a good amount of line value with the Titans. The Steelers have an even yards per play differential and that’s not taking into account their current injury situation or their general struggles on the road against inferior non-divisional teams. If you take the difference of these two team’s yards per play differentials, you get .7. An old gambling formula says to divide that by .15 and add 3 points either way to get the “real” line. Given that, this line should be -1.5 in favor of Pittsburgh, so we’re getting 4.5 points of line value with the Titans at +6, at the very least.

Besides, as strange as it may seem, the Titans are in a good spot coming off back-to-back losses by 20+. Teams in that situation are 33-16 ATS since 2002 and the Titans covered in this exact situation week 3, pulling the home upset over the superior Lions, who were also, not surprisingly, heavily publicly bet. Teams in that situation tend to be both desperate and undervalued and I believe the Titans are both.

Despite the Steelers’ injuries and a lackluster home performance, this line has moved 2 points from -4 to -6 since last week, most likely because of how bad the Titans looked in Minnesota. Meanwhile, at 1-4, this is really the Titans’ last stand. Remember, this team won 9 games last year, so they probably had high hopes for this season. Betting against an undervalued, desperate team is never a good idea.

Tennessee is also a home team on Thursday Night. Home teams are 67-48 ATS on Thursday Night since 1989. Traveling on a short week is rarely a recipe for success. Teams are just 21-23 ATS as home dogs, which makes sense because proven, veteran teams are often much better prepared for a short week like this, which cancels out any advantage of not having to travel.

However, while Pittsburgh is a proven, veteran team, if they have trouble getting up for bad, non-divisional teams on the road normally, why would they be any more likely to do so on Thursday Night, especially with a key divisional match up in Cincinnati on the schedule next. They failed to cover last year on Thursday game and that was at HOME against divisional Cleveland. Meanwhile, while home dogs typically don’t have a big advantage on Thursday Night, home dogs are 18-11 ATS this season, which is something. In this situation, St. Louis covered last week.

This is at the very least a co-pick of the week. It might be my only pick of the week, but it’s at least one of them. I haven’t made a 5+ unit play since week 3, opting to go with three 4-unit co-picks of the week in each of the last 2 weeks instead of a 5-unit pick of the week. I went 5-1 in those games and I was also 2-1 in picks of the week from weeks 1-3, so I’m feeling really confident and want to make at least one 5 unit pick this week. There may be more, but this one is one I really like.

Pittsburgh sucks in this situation and won’t be any better on a short week, especially with a key divisional game on the horizon. They’re also missing two very key defenders, which this spread doesn’t take into account and they’re not playing well overall anyway. Tennessee, meanwhile, is both undervalued and desperate in a “last stand” game at home on a Thursday Night. Finally, we’re getting significant line value and a chance to bet against a heavy public lean. There’s really nothing I don’t like about Tennessee +6 this week. I’m also putting a unit on the under because the under is 67-50 on Thursday night since 1989, including 4-0. Teams are often unprepared offensively on a short week.

Public lean: Pittsburgh (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Tennessee covers)

Tennessee Titans 20 Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Upset Pick +200

Pick against spread: Tennessee +6 (-110) 5 units

Over/Under: Under 42.5

Tennessee Titans (1-3) at Minnesota Vikings (3-1)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 5 NFL Picks, Titans, Vikings

Tennessee Titans (1-3) at Minnesota Vikings (3-1)

If it wasn’t for Arizona, Minnesota would be the surprise team of the year. In fact, I think they have a lot more staying power than the Cardinals. Despite Arizona’s record, they rank 27th in the league in yards per play differential, which I think is more indicative of their ability. Minnesota, meanwhile, ranks 9th in that category. One team every year goes from 5 win or fewer to a playoff spot. Minnesota is the only candidate who ranks as high as they do in yards per play differential. In fact, Cleveland is next closest in 23rd.

Christian Ponder seems to be the most improved 2nd year quarterback. Percy Harvin is now being used properly and has emerged as a legitimate #1 receiver. Kyle Rudolph has stepped up as a complimentary option and Jerome Simpson looked good as well in his first game back from suspension. The offensive line, anchored by 1st round pick Matt Kalil, has been much better and ranks 6th in the league in pass block efficiency.

Meanwhile, their defense is also much improved, thanks to the return for Antoine Winfield and Chris Cook at cornerback from injury and suspension respectively. Both were missed last season. Rookie safety Harrison Smith is playing great football and Brian Robison and Erin Henderson have stepped up big time. Henderson, who has missed the last 2 games with a concussion, is expected to play this week.

However, like Arizona last week, the Vikings could be due for a letdown thanks to a dynamic change. After back-to-back wins as a dog, the Vikings are now favorites. The Cardinals were coming off three straight upset wins, which is a stronger trend (7-13 ATS), but the Vikings are coming off two straight upset wins before being underdogs, which they should be in Washington next week. Teams in that situation tend to see the game in which they’re favored as a breather game. Teams in that situation are 17-32 ATS since 1989.

Speaking of those underdog Titans, they are without starting quarterback Jake Locker in this one. However, I don’t know if that’s necessarily a negative. It’s not a good thing long term, as this 1-3 team would probably rather get their young quarterback reps rather than potentially have a better chance to beat the Vikings this week, but Locker is inconsistent, as young quarterbacks are, while Hasselbeck led this team to a 9-7 record last year. He’s not great or anything, but he can game manage this team. Despite this, this line has still moved 1.5 points from -4.5 to -6 from last week to this week, with Locker going down, which doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. That might not sound like a big line movement, but only 3 games saw line movement greater than that this week, so it’s significant enough.

One difference from last year to this year for the Titans has been defensive play. An 8th ranked defense in 2011, they are currently allowing the most points in the league. It’s easy to point to the loss of Cortland Finnegan as the reason behind that, but there are several others. First, look at the teams they’ve played: New England, San Diego, Detroit, and Houston. That’s 3 top-5 offenses and one top-10 offense. In spite of that, they do rank 21st in yards per play allowed, so they haven’t been awful on a per play basis.

They’ve also been without 2nd year linebacker Colin McCarthy since early in the New England game. Not a lot of people know about him, but he’s a great young linebacker. He’s also a captain and the signal caller. Getting him back should definitely help this young defense (7 of 11 drafted since 2009). The Titans are also in a good spot as road dogs coming off a loss as road dogs. Teams are 59-38 ATS in that situation since 2008. The public, meanwhile, likes Minnesota and I love betting against the public.

It’s not a big play because I do like Minnesota and because I think they’re properly rated according to this line (for those who know the “real” line formula I always mention, the “real” line in this one is -6.5). However, I think Tennessee is the right side. I’m not going to pick them to win outright, but it’s a small play on them to keep this within 6.

Public lean: Minnesota (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Tennessee covers)

Sharps lean: TEN 30 MIN 9

Final update: That is NUTS. Out of 60 sharps, 30 picked Tennessee +6 as one of their top 5 plays of the week, as opposed to only 9 for Minnesota -6. I liked Tennessee before and I like them even more now. I’m adding a unit.

Minnesota Vikings 27 Tennessee Titans 24

Pick against spread: Tennessee +6 (-110) 3 units

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Tennessee Titans: Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#20)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Titans

Last week: 19 (-1)

Record: 1-3

Jake Locker looks like he’ll be out for a while. That’s not a huge loss because Matt Hasselbeck is a capable veteran backup who led this team to 9-7 last year. He might even be a better short term option. However, at 1-3, the Titans aren’t exactly looking for a good short term option. They want to see what Jake Locker has and get their young quarterback some reps so he can continue to develop for the future, so this does hurt them.

Studs

LT Michael Roos: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 33 pass block snaps, run blocked for 26 yards on 4 attempts

CB Jason McCourty: Allowed 1 catch for 11 yards on 2 attempts, 6 solo tackles, 2 assist, 2 stops

Duds

WR Kendall Wright: Caught 4 passes for 46 yards and a touchdown on 8 attempts on 30 pass snaps, 10.0 YAC per catch, 3 drops, 1 penalty

FS Michael Griffin: 2 solo tackles, 3 missed tackles, 1 quarterback hit on 2 blitzes, was not thrown on

DT Sen’Derrick Marks: Did not record a pressure on 16 pass rush snaps, 2 assists, 2 missed tackles

RE Kamerion Wimbley: 1 quarterback hurry on 26 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans: Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, Texans, Titans

Tennessee Titans (1-2) at Houston Texans (3-0)

In my power rankings this week, I poked holes in pretty much every other team in the league. I can’t do that with the Texans. They are without a flaw. Winning in Denver in the high altitude against a talented team and a no huddle offense is damn impressive and 3 games into the season, this is the Super Bowl favorite and the most complete team in the league.

The only two quasi-holes you can poke in this team are these. Can they stay healthy? And can Matt Schaub win it all on his first career trip to the postseason? Neither of those things are going to be factors this week. It’s not the playoffs yet and the only injury they have is depth receiver Lestar Jean, who is out after having knee surgery. All of the key players are still healthy.

As for the Titans, last week, they looked much more like the Titan team I put in the playoffs at the beginning of the season. Jake Locker looked much more comfortable with Nate Washington and Kenny Britt at full strength, going 29 of 42 for 278 yards and 2 touchdowns, although part of that might be Detroit’s crappy secondary. The Titans do rank 18th in yards per play differential, but I’m not putting them back in the playoffs or anything yet.

Chris Johnson is still hilariously bad, even against the type of poor run defense he would have gashed last season, and the young defense is still missing Cortland Finnegan and Colin McCarthy. The latter is expected back from injury sometime soon, but he won’t play in this one. Also possibly not playing in this one is Kenny Britt, who hasn’t practiced all week with an ankle problem. That obviously hurts Locker as he faces the toughest defense he’s played yet.

The difference between these two teams’ yards per play differentials is .9 yards per play. An old gambling formula says to divide that by .15 and then add 3 either way to get the “real line.” That suggests that this line should be -9 in favor of the Texans. Obviously, it’s a little bit more accurate later in the season, but it’s definitely worth noting. We’re getting 3 points of line value with the Titans and that doesn’t even take into account that Tennessee looked much better last week. This line was also -10 a week ago when the Titans looked like one of the worst teams in the league. I don’t know why it would shift 2 points in the other direction now that the Titans look passable, even though Houston’s win was impressive.

That being said, the Titans are in a tough situation this week. Dogs coming off a close (1-3 points) win as home dogs are 19-31 ATS since 2002. Teams tend not to be focused after a close, emotional upset win at home, which makes sense. Also Britt’s possible and likely absence does hurt them a lot. It’s one of the reasons, I believe, that they looked so much better last week, along with the return of Nate Washington to full strength.

I’m really torn on this one. There’s a reason I saved it for last. Houston is the best team in the league, but as we saw with the 49ers last week, teams that get anointed as the best team in the league by the media tend to fall flat the next week. That happened with the Patriots after week 1 too. The Titans are also coming off their best performance yet and are healthier than they’ve been all season, even with Britt possibly out. We also get line value with the Titans and the chance to fade the public.

However, Tennessee is in a tough spot and Britt’s absence does matter a lot with Locker facing almost definitely the toughest defense he’s ever faced as a starter. Also, while they looked much better last week, they still only managed to win by 3 and their defense once again looked really bad. And let’s not forget, in their first 2 games, they weren’t competitive at all.

I was going to just take the points and fade the public because of how well underdogs are doing this year (29-18 ATS) and how poorly the public is doing this year. Road dogs of 10+ and home dogs of 7+ are a combined 4-2 ATS this year. However, those two losses were both against the Texans, who really look like the real deal, unlike San Francisco and New England when they were anointed. The Texans have also covered in another bad situation this year, as road favorites (6-13 ATS this year) and against no slouch of a team, playing the Broncos in Denver. I’m not betting against them.

Public lean: Houston (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Tennessee covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): TEN 5 HOU 5

Final Update: Sharps are also torn as I am and as afraid of this game as I am. The fact that so few sharps are picking Tennessee (sharps tend to love dogs and big dogs especially) makes me feel a little bit more confident in Houston, who is probably the best team in the league, but if I did 0 unit picks, this would be one of them.

Houston Texans 31 Tennessee Titans 17

Pick against spread: Houston -12 (-110) 1 unit

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Tennessee Titans: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#18)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Titans

Last week: 25 (+7)

Record: 1-2

There’s the Titan team I put in the playoffs at the beginning of the season. Jake Locker looked much more comfortable with Nate Washington and Kenny Britt at full strength, going 29 of 42 for 278 yards and 2 touchdowns, although part of that might be Detroit’s crappy secondary. The Titans do rank 18th in yards per play differential, but I’m not putting them back in the playoffs or anything yet. Chris Johnson is still hilariously bad, even against the type of poor run defense he would have gashed last season, and the young defense is still missing Cortland Finnegan and Colin McCarthy, though the latter is expected back from injury some time soon.

Studs

QB Jake Locker: 29 of 42 for 378 yards and 2 touchdowns, 3 drops, 100.3 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 7 of 45 drop backs (0 sacks, 3 of 7, 1 drop)

LG Steve Hutchinson: Did not allow a pressure on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 13 yards on 1 attempt

C Fernando Velasco: Did not allow a pressure on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 13 yards on 3 attempts

OT Michael Roos: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 45 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for -5 yards on 1 attempt

CB Alterraun Verner: Allowed 6 catches for 38 yards on 8 attempts, 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops

CB Tommie Campbell: 1 punt return for 65 yards and a touchdown

WR Darius Reynaud: 4 kickoff returns for 174 yards and a touchdown, 1 carry for 0 yards (1 after contact), 1 broken tackle, did not catch a pass on 5 pass snaps

Duds

RB Chris Johnson: Rushed for 24 yards (15 after contact) on 14 carries, 2 broken tackles, caught 1 pass for 5 yards on 2 attempts, 1 drop

LOLB Will Witherspoon: Allowed 6 catches for 83 yards on 9 attempts, 9 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 2 missed tackle

CB Ryan Mouton: Allowed 11 catches for 86 yards and a touchdown on 12 attempts, 1 penalty, 10 solo tackles, 4 stops

RE Kamerion Wimbley: 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback pressure on 55 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles

LE Scott Solomon: Did not record a pressure on 16 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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Titans say Kenny Britt, Nate Washington will not be on a snap count this week, Colin McCarthy out

stevenlourie News, Titans

The Titans have had a less than optimal start to their season as they are currently one of just six 0-2 teams left in the NFL. They haven’t been competitive in either of their first 2 games and possess the league’s worst point differential at -49. However, they’ve had a very tough schedule early in the season and things are looking up, especially in the passing game. 1st time starting quarterback Jake Locker hasn’t been great in his first 2 games, completing 61.3% of his passes for an average of 6.5 YPA and 2 touchdowns to 2 interceptions, but he’s been working with a receiving corps that’s seen far too much of rookie Kendall Wright and mediocre talent Damian Williams, who lead the unit in snaps played.

This week, Locker will have Kenny Britt and Nate Washington, arguably his top 2 receivers, back at full strength. Britt missed the opener with suspension and then was on a snap count last week, playing just 19 snaps. Washington left the opener with an injury and then was on a snap count last week, playing just 22 snaps. This week, both are much closer to full strength and will not be on a snap count. Expect both to be starters, leaving Kendall Wright in the slot as a 3rd receiver.

Britt has caught 56 passes for 1146 yards and 12 touchdowns over his last 13 full games over the last 2 seasons. Only 24, he should be able to bounce back from a pretty major injury. Meanwhile, Washington was their leading receiver last year in Britt’s absence, catching 74 passes for 1023 yards and 7 touchdowns. Between those two, the rookie Wright in the slot, and tight end Jared Cook, an above average pass catcher, Locker will have one of the better receiving corps in the NFL. Facing a banged up Detroit secondary that wasn’t very good to begin with, he should be able to move the ball much easier this week than in recent weeks now in his 3rd NFL start. He should also get much more help from Chris Johnson this week. Johnson has been prone to dud performances in the last 2 years, but he’s destroyed bad run defenses, rushing for 100 yards in 4 of 5 games against run defenses ranked in the bottom 3rd last season. Detroit ranked 30th.

The bad news for the Titans is that 2nd year linebacker Colin McCarthy will also miss this week. The young linebacker is the leader of their defense and they have definitely missed him as they’ve been torched in each of their first 2 games. Tom Brady and Philip Rivers have represented tough challenges so far for this defense, but Matt Stafford and the Lions aren’t exactly a walk in the park. It remains to be seen if their young defense (8 of 11 starters drafted since 2009) can find their 2011 form (8th in scoring defense) now without Cortland Finnegan (signed in St. Louis) and McCarthy (injured). This game figures to be a high scoring one, but the Titans may be able to pull the upset at home over the Lions if the Lions come in flat off an emotional week 2 loss to the 49ers and expect to walk all over the “lowly” Titans.

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Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, Lions, Titans

Detroit Lions (1-1) at Tennessee Titans (0-2)

Before the season, I identified 5 overrated and 5 underrated teams, with the idea of betting on them (or against them) until they proved me wrong or the odds makers caught up. This served me well as I’m 10-4 this year on games involving those 10 teams (and one of those losses is because I abandoned shipped on the Bills after week 1 and picked the Chiefs last week). However, two weeks into the season, I’ve had to adapt that a little. The one thing that’s remained constant is that the Lions are overrated. They needed a late comeback at home to beat the Rams week 1 and then they weren’t really competitive in San Francisco last week before a late garbage time touchdown.

The reason I thought Detroit was overrated was because of how one dimensional they are. They had a great passing offense, but they didn’t have much talent at the running back position and they couldn’t stop anyone defensively. Last year, they won just 5 of their final 12 games, including playoffs, and needed 4 comebacks of 13 points or more, an NFL record, to even win 10 games. Their defense ranked 23rd in scoring and I didn’t think they could keep relying on the offense to bail the defense out at a historic rate.

Besides, their strength, their passing offense, was very reliant on Matt Stafford, who coming into this season was just a one year wonder. For the record, he’s completing 63.8% of his passes for 7.3 YPA, 2 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in 2 games. Except for the completion percentage, which has remained steady, those are all down from last year. He’s not bad or anything, but he doesn’t nearly have the help he needs for this to be an elite team, specifically defensively.

Defensively, they’ve been awful through 2 games, particularly through the air, ranking 22nd in YPA, allowing 37 of 56 for 374 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no interceptions. That might not sound awful, but neither of the quarterbacks they’ve faced, Alex Smith or Sam Bradford, are really that great. Jake Locker isn’t that great either, completing 61.3% of his passes for 6.5 YPA, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, but this is by far his easiest match up.

The Lions are expected to be healthier in the secondary this week, returning Chris Houston and Bill Bentley from injury. However, they’re still not at 100% and it’s not like they were a good pass defense before injuries. Houston is decent, but Bentley is a 3rd round rookie. Those 2 will work with Jacob Lacey, a mediocre talent, at cornerback, while their safeties will be Erik Coleman and either Amari Spievey or John Wendling. None of those guys are any good. Locker should be able to move the ball on this group and in his 3rd start in the NFL, he could be more comfortable, especially now that Kenny Britt is expected to play a larger role. Remember, Britt, not yet 24 years old, has caught 56 passes for 1146 yards and 12 touchdowns in his full last 13 games.

One other thing that will help Locker out is that Chris Johnson should finally break through this week. CJ21 has been hilariously awful through the first 2 games of the season, rushing for 21 yards on 19 carries. However, the competition he’s faced has been stiff. I’m not saying he’s blameless; in fact he’s far from it, but last year he struggled against stiff competition and tore up bad run defenses. In 4 games against teams ranked 21st or worse in YPC, Johnson rushed for over 100 yards 4 times, over 130 yards 3 times and over 153 yards 2 times. The Lions ranked 30th against the run last year. They’ve been a little bit better this year, ranking 16th, but it’s only been 2 games and they didn’t make a single change in their defensive front 7 from last year to this year, so that decent ranking is probably a fluke. Chris Johnson should finally have a good game this week. That will take the pressure off of Locker.

So the Lions can’t stop the run and they can’t stop the pass. What can they do? Well, they can get to the quarterback, or at least they used to be able to. They rank 17th in pass rush efficiency this year, a stat they ranked 8th in last year. Like their improved run defense, this is probably also a fluke. I can’t think of any good reason why their pass rush would decline, other than possibly Kyle Vanden Bosch’s age (1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 43 pass rush snaps in his age 34 season). They should considering giving talented young backup Willie Young more snaps.

However, don’t expect the Lions to be able to get to Locker with ease this week. Tennessee’s offensive front can’t run block, but they are great in pass protection. They were the 2nd ranked offensive line in pass block efficiency last year. Locker will be under some pressure, like he has been in their first 2 games against tough competition (he’s been the 10th most pressured quarterback in the league), because the Lions have a tough pass rush too, but he should have enough time to have a solid game against a secondary that couldn’t stop Sam Bradford or Alex Smith.

So the Titans should be able to move the ball, but what about the Lions? They should be able to as well. Matt Stafford leads an above average passing game and they get Mikel Leshoure back from suspension this week, though it’s unclear how much he’ll play or how much he’ll help the running game. Besides, the Titans have surrendered 34 and 38 points in their first 2 games.

However, Matt Stafford is not on the level of Philip Rivers and Tom Brady, the Titans’ opponents in their first 2 games. Rivers in particular played an amazing game against them. Down his top receiver Antonio Gates, he completed 24 of 32 for 284 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception despite being pressured on 20 of 37 drop backs. On top 20 pressured drop backs, he took just 3 sacks, scrambled twice and completed 10 of 16.

The Titans can get after the quarterback this year thanks to maturation of some of their young defensive linemen and the addition of Kamerion Wimbley. They rank 2nd in the league in pass rush efficiency, which helps make up for the loss of Cortland Finnegan in the secondary. Remember, they were the league’s 8th rated scoring defense last year and this year, in spite of all the points they’ve given up, they’re pretty middle of the pack in yards per play allowed. That’s 23rd in the league this year, but it’s actually right in the middle of the best (4.1) and the worst (7.2). They rank 27th in yards per play differential because of their offense (4.9 yards per play, which is 29th) more so than their defense, so the Lions won’t have a field day or anything on the Titans defense. And the Titans’ offense, as I mentioned, seems due for a better game this week, for several reasons.

I don’t think the Titans are better than the Lions or anything, but this line implies that the Lions are 7 points better on a neutral field. That doesn’t make any sense to me and it wouldn’t have made any sense to the odds makers last week, who had the advance spread on this game at Tennessee -1 last week. Something like an even or Detroit -1 would have made more sense in this game, so we’re getting a ton of line value with the Titans. In spite of that, the public is predictably pounding the Lions this week. I love betting against the public at every chance I get, especially when the public is leaning one way heavily. The odds makers are rich for a reason and the public is getting slaughtered this year on big leans.

On top of the line value, I also think the Lions could be pretty flat this week. They’re coming off an emotional loss to a very talented team and might not get up for a non-conference 0-2 team, especially with a divisional test looming on the horizon next week. Road favorites in non-conference battles are 9-16 ATS since 1989 coming off a loss as a dog before playing a divisional opponent. I know it’s a really specific trend, which is why I had to go all the way back to 1989 to get statistically significant data, but it makes sense that the Lions would be flat this week, especially as a young team prone to penalties (they were the 3rd most penalized teams in the league last.

Meanwhile, the Titans are coming off back to back losses of 20+, which historically means they’re undervalued. Teams are 32-16 ATS in this situation since 2002. The Titans are especially undervalued here because people are looking past exactly how tough their opening two games were, especially with a 1st time starting quarterback. As long as Detroit doesn’t have field goal protection, I’m taking the Titans in this one.

Public lean: Detroit (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Tennessee covers)

Tennessee Titans 24 Detroit Lions 23 Upset Pick +165

Pick against spread: Tennessee Titans +4 (-110) 3 units

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