33. Cleveland Browns – RB TreVeyon Henderson (Ohio State)

34. Houston Texans – OT Aireontae Ersery (Minnesota)

35. Tennessee Titans – WR Jayden Higgins (Iowa State)

36. Cleveland Browns – DE Mike Green (Marshall)

37. Las Vegas Raiders – QB Shedeur Sanders (Colorado)

38. New England Patriots – WR Tre Harris (Mississippi)

39. Chicago Bears – DE Donovan Ezeiruaku (Boston College)

40. New Orleans Saints – QB Tyler Shough (Cincinnati)

41. Chicago Bears – RB Quinshon Judkins (Ohio State)

42. New York Jets – TE Elijah Arroyo (Miami)

43. San Francisco 49ers – CB Will Johnson (Michigan)

44. Dallas Cowboys – WR Luther Burden (Missouri)

45. Indianapolis Colts – CB Shavon Revel (East Carolina)

46. Los Angeles Rams – C Jared Wilson (Georgia)

47. Arizona Cardinals – CB Trey Amos (Mississippi)

48. Miami Dolphins – S Nick Emmanwori (South Carolina)

49. Cincinnati Bengals – DT Darius Alexander (Toledo)

50. Seattle Seahawks – TE Mason Taylor (LSU)

51. Denver Broncos – RB Kaleb Johnson (Iowa)

52. Seattle Seahawks – G Jonah Savaiinaea (Arizona)

53. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DE JT Tuimoloau (Ohio State)

54. Green Bay Packers – DE Jordan Burch (Oregon)

55. Los Angeles Chargers – WR Jaylin Noel (Iowa State)

56. Buffalo Bills – DT Shemar Turner (Texas A&M)

57. Carolina Panthers – OLB Carson Schwesinger (UCLA)

58. Houston Texans – WR Jalen Royals (Utah State)

59. Baltimore Ravens – DT TJ Sanders (South Carolina)

60. Detroit Lions – DE Oluwafemi Oladejo (UCLA)

61. Washington Commanders – S Kevin Winston (Penn State)

62. Buffalo Bills – WR Jack Bech (TCU)

63. Kansas City Chiefs – DT Omarr Norman-Lott (Tennessee)

64. Philadelphia Eagles – CB Benjamin Morrison (Notre Dame)

65. New York Giants – OT Ozzy Trapilo (Boston College)

66. Kansas City Chiefs – RB Cam Skattebo (Arizona State)

67. Cleveland Browns – QB Jalen Milroe (Alabama)

68. Las Vegas Raiders – WR Kyle Williams (Washington State)

69. New England Patriots – DE Nic Scourton (Texas A&M)

70. Jacksonville Jaguars – DE Landon Jackson (Arkansas)

71. New Orleans Saints – CB Azareye’h Thomas (Florida State)

72. Chicago Bears – DT Alfred Collins (Texas)

73. New York Jets – WR Jaylin Lane (Virginia Tech)

74. Carolina Panthers – DE Josaiah Stewart (Michigan)

75. San Francisco 49ers – OT Charles Grant (William & Mary)

76. Dallas Cowboys – DT Joshua Farmer (Florida State)

77. New England Patriots – TE Terrance Ferguson (Oregon)

78. Arizona Cardinals – G Marcus Mbow (Purdue)

79. Houston Texans – RB Dylan Sampson (Tennessee)

80. Indianapolis Colts – G Tate Rutledge (Georgia)

81. Cincinnati Bengals – G Miles Frazier (LSU)

82. Seattle Seahawks – WR Tai Felton (Maryland)

83. Pittsburgh Steelers – QB Will Howard (Ohio State)

84. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – S Xavier Watts (Notre Dame)

85. Denver Broncos – TE Gunnar Helm (Texas)

86. Los Angeles Chargers – DE Bradyn Swinson (LSU)

87. Green Bay Packers – CB Darien Porter (Iowa State)

88. Jacksonville Jaguars – DT Ty Robinson (Nebraska)

89. Houston Texans – TE Harold Fannin (Bowling Green)

90. Los Angeles Rams – CB Quincy Riley (Louisville)

91. Baltimore Ravens – OT Anthony Belton (NC State)

92. Seattle Seahawks – S Jonas Sanker (Virginia)

93. New Orleans Saints – DE Princely Umanmielen (Mississippi)

94. Cleveland Browns – WR Tory Horton (Colorado State)

95. Kansas City Chiefs – S Andrew Mukaba (Texas)

96. Philadelphia Eagles – S Billy Bowman (Oklahoma)

97. Minnesota Vikings – CB Nohl Williams (California)

98. Miami Dolphins – OT Cameron Williams (Texas)

99. Houston Texans – DE Sai’vion Jones (LSU)

100. San Francisco 49ers – RB Devin Neal (Kansas)

101. Atlanta Falcons – CB Jacob Parrish (Kansas State)

102. Detroit Lions – WR Savion Williams (TCU)

() in trades is the pick value on NFL Draft trade value chart

1. Tennessee Titans – QB Cam Ward (Miami)
2. Cleveland Browns – WR/CB Travis Hunter (Colorado)
3. New York Giants – DE Abdul Carter (Penn State)
4. Chicago Bears (TRADE) – RB Ashton Jeanty (Boise State)

Chicago gives 10 (1300) and 39 (510) for 4 (1800)

5. Jacksonville Jaguars – DT Mason Graham (Michigan)
6. Las Vegas Raiders – OT Will Campbell (LSU)
7. New York Jets – OT Armand Membou (Missouri)
8. Carolina Panthers – DE Jalon Walker (Georgia)
9. Indianapolis Colts (TRADE) – TE Tyler Warren (Penn State)

Indianapolis gives 14 (1100), 45 (450), and 151 (31) for 9 (1350) and 71 (235)

10. New England Patriots (TRADE) – OT Kelvin Banks (Texans)
11. Denver Broncos (TRADE) – RB Omarion Hampton (North Carolina)

Denver gives 20 (850) and 51 (390) for 11 (1250)

12. Dallas Cowboys – WR Tetaiora McMillan (Arizona State)
13. Miami Dolphins – CB Will Johnson (Michigan)
14. New Orleans Saints (TRADE) – QB Jaxson Dart (Mississippi)
15. Atlanta Falcons – DE Mykel Williams (Georgia)
16. Cleveland Browns (TRADE) – QB Shedeur Sanders (Colorado)

Cleveland gives 33 (580), 67 (255), and a 2026 2nd round pick for 16 (1000)

17. Houston Texans (TRADE) – OT Josh Simmons (Ohio State)

Houston gives 25 (720), 79 (195), and a 2026 4th round pick for 17 (950)

18. Seattle Seahawks – TE Colston Loveland (Michigan)
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – CB Jahdae Barron (Texas)
20. San Francisco 49ers (TRADE) – DT Walter Nolen (Mississippi)
21. Pittsburgh Steelers – DT Derrick Harmon (Oregon)
22. Los Angeles Chargers – DT Kenneth Grant (Michigan)
23. Green Bay Packers – DE Shemar Stewart (Texas A&M)
24. Minnesota Vikings – S Nick Emmanwori (South Carolina)
25. Cincinnati Bengals (TRADE) – DE Mike Green (Marshall)
26. Los Angeles Rams – CB Maxwell Hairston (Kentucky)
27. Baltimore Ravens – OLB Jihaad Campbell (Alabama)
28. New England Patriots (TRADE) – WR Matthew Golden (Texas)

New England gives 38 (520) and 69 (245) for 28 (660) and 102 (92)

29. Arizona Cardinals (TRADE) – OT Josh Conerly (Oregon)

Arizona gives 33 (580) and 115 (64) for 29 (640)

30. Buffalo Bills – DE James Pearce (Tennessee)
31. Kansas City Chiefs – OT Aireontae Ersery (Minnesota)
32. Philadelphia Eagles – DE Donovan Ezeiruaku (Boston College)
33. Washington Commanders (TRADE) – S Malaki Starks (Georgia)
34. New York Giants – QB Jalen Milroe (Alabama)
35. Tennessee Titans – WR Emeka Egbuka (Ohio State)
36. Jacksonville Jaguars – WR Jayden Higgins (Iowa State)
37. Las Vegas Raiders – RB TreVeyon Henderson (Ohio State)
38. Detroit Lions (TRADE) – G Grey Zabel (North Dakota State)
39. New England Patriots (TRADE) – G Tyler Booker (Alabama)
40. New Orleans Saints – WR Luther Burden (Missouri)
41. Chicago Bears – DT Darius Alexander (Toledo)
42. New York Jets – TE Elijah Arroyo (Miami)
43. San Francisco 49ers – CB Shavon Revel (East Carolina)
44. Dallas Cowboys – RB Quinshon Judkins (Ohio State)
45. New Orleans Saints (TRADE) – CB Trey Amos (Mississippi)
46. Atlanta Falcons – C Jared Wilson (Georgia)
47. Arizona Cardinals – WR Tre Harris (Mississippi)
48. Miami Dolphins – DT Shemar Turner (Texas A&M)
49. Cincinnati Bengals – G Jonah Savaiinaea (Arizona)
50. Seattle Seahawks – G Donovan Jackson (Ohio State)
51. San Francisco 49ers (TRADE) – DE JT Tuimoloau (Ohio State)
52. Seattle Seahawks – WR Jaylin Noel (Iowa State)
53. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DE Jordan Burch (Oregon)
54. Green Bay Packers – CB Azareye’h Thomas (Florida State)
55. Los Angeles Chargers – TE Mason Taylor (LSU)
56. Buffalo Bills – DT TJ Sanders (South Carolina)
57. Pittsburgh Steelers (TRADE) – QB Tyler Shough (Louisville)

Pittsburgh gives 83 (175) and a 2026 2nd round pick for 57 (330)

58. Houston Texans – WR Jack Bech (TCU)
59. Baltimore Ravens – DT Tyleik Williams (Ohio State)
60. Detroit Lions – DE Oluwafemi Oladejo (UCLA)
61. Washington Commanders – DE Nic Scourton (Texas A&M)
62. Buffalo Bills – CB Benjamin Morrison (Notre Dame)
63. Kansas City Chiefs – S Kevin Winston (Penn State)
64. Philadelphia Eagles – OT Ozzy Trapilo (Boston College)
65. New York Giants – DT Omarr Norman-Lott (Tennessee)
66. Kansas City Chiefs – DT Alfred Collins (Texas)
67. Arizona Cardinals (TRADE) – OLB Carson Schwesinger (UCLA)
68. Las Vegas Raiders – WR Jalen Royals (Utah State)
69. Detroit Lions (TRADE) – DT Joshua Farmer (Florida State)
70. Jacksonville Jaguars – RB Kaleb Johnson (Iowa)
71. Indianapolis Colts – G Marcus Mbow (Purdue)
72. Chicago Bears – WR Kyle Williams (Washington State)
73. New York Jets – WR Jaylin Lane (Virginia Tech)
74. Carolina Panthers – TE Terrance Ferguson (Oregon)
75. San Francisco 49ers – OT Charles Grant (William & Mary)
76. Dallas Cowboys – G Tate Rutledge (Georgia)
77. New England Patriots – DE Landon Jackson (Arkansas)
78. Arizona Cardinals – CB Darien Porter (Iowa State)
79. Cincinnati Bengals – RB Cam Skattebo (Arizona State)
80. Indianapolis Colts – DT Ty Robinson (Nebraska)
81. Cincinnati Bengals – S Xavier Watts (Notre Dame)
82. Seattle Seahawks – OT Anthony Belton (NC State)
83. Carolina Panthers (TRADE) – WR Tai Felton (Maryland)
84. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – TE Gunnar Helm (Texas)
85. Denver Broncos – DE Josaiah Stewart (Michigan)
86. Los Angeles Chargers – DE Bradyn Swinson (LSU)
87. Green Bay Packers – WR Tory Horton (Colorado State)
88. Jacksonville Jaguars – TE Harold Fannin (Bowling Green)
89. Houston Texans – RB Dylan Sampson (Tennessee)
90. Los Angeles Rams – DE Princely Umanmielen (Mississippi)
91. Baltimore Ravens – G Miles Frazier (LSU)
92. Seattle Seahawks – S Jonas Sanker (Virginia)
93. New Orleans Saints – OT Cameron Williams (Texas)
94. Cleveland Browns – RB Devin Neal (Kansas)
95. Kansas City Chiefs – RB DJ Giddens (Kansas State)
96. Philadelphia Eagles – CB Quincy Riley (Louisville)
97. Minnesota Vikings – CB Jacob Parrish (Kansas State)
98. Miami Dolphins – S Andrew Mukuba (Texas)
99. New York Giants – TE Mitchell Evans (Notre Dame)
100. San Francisco 49ers – RB Jordan James (Oregon)
101. Los Angeles Rams – QB Will Howard (Ohio State)
102. New England Patriots (TRADE) – RB RJ Harvey (Central Florida)

Updated 4/16/25

*Had a private workout with the team

1. Tennessee Titans – QB Cam Ward (Miami)*

The Titans have all but announced that Cam Ward will be their pick here, cancelling private workouts with all other options. Earlier in the draft process, there was some thought that the Titans weren’t thrilled with their options and might trade down, but Ward is far and away the best quarterback prospect in a weak quarterback draft, even if he might not truly be an elite prospect, and the Titans don’t have another good option at the position.

2. Cleveland Browns – WR/CB Travis Hunter (Colorado)*

The Browns desperately need a quarterback, but it doesn’t sound like they are sold enough on any quarterback other than Cam Ward to take one here and, with Ward almost definitely going to be off the board, the Browns are likely to go in another direction. Travis Hunter and Abdul Carter are the two best players in this draft and both would be great picks for the Browns, but it sounds like they prefer Travis Hunter, which makes sense, because he fills a bigger need. 

3. New York Giants – DE Abdul Carter (Penn State)*

The Giants are in a similar situation as the Browns, desperately needing a quarterback, but unsold on any of the available options. They will likely just take whichever of Travis Hunter and Abdul Carter the Browns don’t take. The Giants are probably hoping for Hunter because he fills a bigger need, but I don’t think they would be unhappy with Carter. Perhaps this selection would be followed by a trade of Kayvon Thibadeoux, who has been solid, but hasn’t really lived up to the billing of being a top-5 pick and who has just one more year before his expensive 5th year option kicks in.

4. New England Patriots – OT Will Campbell (LSU)*

The Patriots are obviously hoping that either the Browns or Giants get desperate for a quarterback and reach on one in the top-3, allowing either Hunter or Carter to fall to them at 4, but that seems unlikely at this point. The Patriots’ second best option would be to trade out of this pick to accumulate additional picks, but it’s unclear if there is anyone available at this spot that any team would want to give up significant draft capital to move up for. If the Patriots stay put, Will Campbell seems like the favorite. He’s not an elite left tackle prospect because of his short arms and lack of top end athleticism, but the Patriots desperately need offensive line help and, even if Campbell ends up not being able to play left tackle long-term, he almost definitely will be an above average starter for them somewhere for years to come. 

5. Jacksonville Jaguars – DT Mason Graham (Michigan)

Coming into the off-season, the Jaguars biggest needs were offensive line, cornerback, wide receiver, and defensive tackle, in some order. In free agency, they signed cornerback Jourdan Lewis to a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal, wide receiver Dyami Brown to a 1-year, 10 million dollar deal, and offensive linemen Robert Hainsey and Patrick Mekari to deals worth 21 million over 3 years and 37.5 million over 3 years respectively, but they didn’t add anyone at the defensive tackle position. It’s possible the Jaguars still address one of those other positions, but it’s more likely that their free agent signings were telling of their plans with this pick and there is a strong argument to be made that Graham is best available anyway. 

6. Las Vegas Raiders – RB Ashton Jeanty (Boise State)*

The Raiders addressed their quarterback need by trading for Geno Smith, so now they can address other needs or take the best player available. Taking Ashton Jeanty here arguably accomplishes both of those goals. You could make the argument that he is the best player in the draft overall, but because he is a running back, he is unlikely to go in the top-5, given the needs of those teams and the relatively low position value of running backs. Despite one of the thinnest running back rooms in the league, the Raiders didn’t do much to address the position in free agency, perhaps signaling their intention with this pick. New head coach Pete Carroll could easily see Jeanty as his next Marshawn Lynch, a player Jeanty is frequently compared to.

7. New York Jets – OT Armand Membou (Missouri)

The Jets could go three different directions with this pick and none of them would surprise me. They could address their receiving corps, either with wide receiver Tet McMillan or tight end Tyler Warren, or they could take offensive tackle Armand Membou and play him opposite last year’s first round pick Olu Fashanu, without another good offensive tackle option on the roster. Membou has more positional value than Warren and seems to generally be higher rated than McMillan, so I would consider him the favorite, but none of those three options would surprise me.

8. Carolina Panthers – DE Jalon Walker (Georgia)*

The Panthers have a few options here, including the top tight end Tyler Warren, but it is starting to seem like the Panthers would prefer to improve their terrible defense and that Jalon Walker would be their preferred choice to accomplish that goal. He would be a big upgrade for a Panthers team that hasn’t replaced Brian Burns after trading him last off-season and that is currently led at the edge defender position by Jadeveon Clowney, who is heading into his age 32 season.

9. New Orleans Saints – QB Shedeur Sanders (Colorado)*

It looks unlikely that Shedeur Sanders will be the top-3 pick he looked likely to be a month or so ago, but the Saints are desperate enough at the quarterback position that they might stop his slide at 9. Derek Carr is just a stopgap option and he might not even be that if he either gets shoulder surgery that jeopardizes his 2025 season or if he manages to force his way out of New Orleans, where it doesn’t seem like he wants to be. Jaxson Dart is also a possibility here, even over Sanders, and if the Saints knew they had Derek Carr as a stopgap for a year I think Dart would be the pick, but Sanders is by far the more NFL ready of the two and whichever quarterback is selected here might not have the luxury of setting and learning.

10. Chicago Bears – DE Shemar Stewart (Texas A&M)*

The Bears could address the offensive line, which was their biggest need going into the off-season, but they don’t have an obvious spot for a rookie to start on the offensive line, having added three starting caliber offensive linemen already this off-season, and it’s unlikely they would use this pick on a player they expect to be a reserve in year one. The Bears also added edge defender Dayo Odeyingbo this off-season, but he’s a mediocre option and ideally the Bears would have at least three edge defenders they can rely on to rotate with each other, including top edge defender Montez Sweat. The Bears have several good options at this point, but Stewart is the only one they’ve worked out privately, so he may be their preferred choice.

11. San Francisco 49ers – CB Will Johnson (Michigan)

The 49ers have a lot of areas they could address after significant losses this off-season, so they might just end up taking the best player available. That could easily be Will Johnson, who would also fill a big need, after the 49ers lost both Chavarius Ward and Isaac Yiadom this off-season. Johnson could start for them immediately along with top holdover Deommodore Lenoir and second year player Renaldo Green.

12. Dallas Cowboys – WR Tetairoa McMillan (Arizona)*

The Cowboys really don’t have much on the depth chart opposite Ceedee Lamb, so if McMillan falls to them at 12, the Cowboys will at least strongly consider him. Of the options on the board, he makes the most sense for them at this juncture.

13. Miami Dolphins – CB Jahdae Barron (Texas)

The Dolphins lost Kendall Fuller without replacing him this off-season and are rumored to be interested in moving on from expensive veteran Jalen Ramsey this off-season as well. Even if they keep Ramsey, a cornerback could easily be in play with the 13th pick. Barron doesn’t have the tools and upside that Will Johnson has, but he’s a better football player right now and it wouldn’t surprise me if he ended up going earlier than Johnson. Even if he doesn’t, I don’t expect him to wait much longer for his name to be called, with cornerback being a premium position and with this year’s cornerback class being relatively weak at the top.

14. Indianapolis Colts – TE Tyler Warren (Penn State)

No team targeted tight ends less often in 2024 than the Colts, who targeted tight ends just 73 targets, with no tight end catching more than 14 passes. Part of that is Anthony Richardson’s tendency to throw the ball deep to wide receivers, but a lack of talent at the tight end position is part of the problem too as well and Richardson might not be the Colts’ primary starting quarterback in 2025 anyway. Loveland would give either Richardson or Daniel Jones a talented receiving target over the middle.

15. Atlanta Falcons – DE Mykel Williams (Georgia)

The Falcons’ had the second fewest sacks in the league last season with 31 and no player topped 6 sacks, so the Falcons have a clear need for edge rush help. The Falcons signed Leonard Floyd in free agency, but he is on a one-year deal and going into his age 33 season, so that move doesn’t preclude the Falcons from using their first round pick on an edge defender.

16. Arizona Cardinals – OT Kelvin Banks (Texas)

The Cardinals addressed their defensive front in free agency and now seem likely to address their offensive line early in the draft. Starting right tackle Jonah Williams is injury prone and in a contract year, while swing tackle Kelvin Beachum is heading into his age 36 season, so the Cardinals should look to find a potential long-term starting option through the draft. Banks could start at guard for the Cardinals in 2025, before kicking to right tackle in 2026 and beyond. 

17. Cincinnati Bengals – S Nick Emmanwori (South Carolina)*

The Bengals’ missed the playoffs last season despite a great offensive performance because of their defensive struggles, so it seems likely that defense will be where the Bengals go with this pick. Nick Emmanwori is someone they have shown a lot of interest in and makes sense at this juncture. He’s a versatile defender who can make an impact right away.

18. Seattle Seahawks – TE Colston Loveland (Michigan)

Noah Fant has never developed into the above average starting tight end the Seahawks were hoping the former first round pick could become when they acquired him from the Broncos in the Russell Wilson trade. He has just one year left on his contract and the Seahawks may look to shoot higher in the draft. If Colston Loveland is still on the board at 18, it would make sense for the Seahawks to take him.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – OLB Jihaad Campbell (Alabama)

The Buccaneers addressed a need at edge defender in free agency this off-season by signing Haason Reddick, but he is on a one-year deal and going into his age 31 season, so that signing won’t preclude the Buccaneers from taking an edge defender like Jihaad Campbell in the first round.

20. Denver Broncos – RB Omarion Hampton (North Carolina)

Head Coach Sean Payton spoke about the Broncos’ need to add playmakers at running back and tight end this off-season. They added Evan Engram in free agency to improve their tight end room, but still haven’t done anything to improve a running back room that is one of the worst in the league. Hampton has three-down potential and could be a big addition to the Broncos’ offense.

21. Pittsburgh Steelers – QB Jaxson Dart (Mississippi)*

The Steelers could still sign Aaron Rodgers, but, even if they do, a pick like Jaxson Dart would make sense, given that Rodgers is going into his age 42 season and will likely only be signed to a 1-year deal. Dart has a high upside and he would benefit from sitting for a year behind a veteran like Rodgers if the Steelers have that option.

22. Los Angeles Chargers – DT Kenneth Grant (Michigan)

The Chargers reunite Jim Harbaugh with one of his players from the University of Michigan and fill a big need at defensive tackle, where Poona Ford wasn’t retained this off-season. 

23. Green Bay Packers – WR Matthew Golden (Texas)*

The Packers had a solid receiving corps last season, but Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson are heading into the final years of their rookie deals and it seems unlikely that both will be re-signed. Watson is also highly questionable for most of the 2025 season after a late-season ACL tear in 2024. Matthew Golden could have an instant impact with Watson out and could develop into the #1 long-term number one receiver that might not be on their roster right now, with Jayden Reed currently penciled into that role.

24. Minnesota Vikings – S Malaki Starks (Georgia)

The Vikings use three safeties together as frequently as any team in the league and need to add to that position group this off-season, with Cam Bynum signing with the Colts and Harrison Smith going into his age 36 season.

25. Houston Texans – OT Josh Simmons (Ohio State)

The Texans have added a bunch of offensive lineman through trade or free agency this off-season as they look to overhaul what was one of the worst offensive lines in the league, but all of the players they added are either on one-year deals or in the final year of their contract, so the Texans will likely look to draft an offensive lineman early as well.

26. Los Angeles Rams – CB Maxwell Hairston (Kentucky)

The Rams have done a great job reloading their defensive front through the draft over the past two years, but their secondary still needs addressing. Even as a rookie, Hairston would have a good chance to start for this team immediately.

27. Baltimore Ravens – DT Derrick Harmon (Oregon)

The Ravens have a pair of talented interior defenders in Nnamdi Madubuike and Travis Jones, but have a severe lack of depth now with Michael Pierce opting to retire this off-season. The Ravens will have several options to replace him late in the first round, including Derrick Harmon.

28. Detroit Lions – DE Mike Green (Marshall)

The Lions are getting Aidan Hutchinson back from injury in 2025, but they could use an upgrade opposite him long-term. They brought back Marcus Davenport in free agency, but he is only on a one-year deal and has missed 47 of a possible 116 games in seven seasons in the league, so his return doesn’t preclude the Lions from addressing the edge defender position in a first round where 7-8 edge defenders are likely to come off the board.

29. Washington Commanders – DE James Pearce (Tennessee)

The Commanders retained Dante Fowler in free agency and signed Deatrich Wise, but both are on the wrong side of 30 and neither will preclude the Commanders from taking an edge defender early in the draft. In a deep edge defender class, the Commanders should have their choice of a couple options late in the first round.

30. Buffalo Bills – DE Donovan Ezeiruaku (Boston College)

The Bills signed Joey Bosa to replace Von Miller as a pass rush specialist, but he’s often injured, going into his age 30 season, and is only on a one-year deal, so the Bills could still address this position early in the draft. Ezeiruaku could contribute immediately as a rotational player and has the upside to develop into an above average starter opposite Greg Rousseau long-term. 

31. Kansas City Chiefs – DT Walter Nolen (Mississippi)

The Chiefs are pretty thin at defensive tackle other than Chris Jones, who lines up at defensive end on occasion. The Chiefs could have some options to play inside next to Jones available to them late in the first round and could easily pull the trigger on one of them, including Walter Nolen, who remains on the board in this scenario.

32. Philadelphia Eagles – G Tyler Booker (Alabama)

The strength of the Eagles last season was their offensive line, but they lost right guard Mekhi Becton in free agency this off-season. They took a flier on former first round pick bust Kenyon Green as a potential replacement and they have 2023 3rd round pick Tyler Steen as well, but neither of those two will preclude the Eagles from addressing the position early in the draft if the right player falls to them. Tyler Booker, the best pure guard prospect in the draft, could be that player if he’s still on the board at 32.

33. Cleveland Browns – QB Tyler Shough (Louisville)*

If the Browns don’t take a quarterback in the first round, Tyler Shough would make sense for them at the top of the second round.

34. New York Giants – QB Jalen Milroe (Alabama)*

Like the Browns, the Giants passed on a quarterback in the first round and take one at the top of the second round instead.

35. Tennessee Titans – WR Jayden Higgins (Iowa State)

Teams who take a quarterback in the first round usually use their next pick on a supporting offensive player. The Titans spent significant money on the offensive line in free agency, but still need another wide receiver, with little on the depth chart behind Calvin Ridley.

36. Jacksonville Jaguars – WR Emeka Egbuka (Ohio State)

The Jaguars signed Dyami Brown in free agency, but he was only signed on a one-year deal, so they will likely look to add another pass catcher relatively early in the draft.

37. Las Vegas Raiders – CB Azareye’h Thomas (Florida State)

The Raiders are very thin at cornerback after losing Nate Hobbs in free agency. Thomas is a potential first round pick who is unlikely to last long on day two if he isn’t taken in the first round.

38. New England Patriots – WR Tre Harris (Mississippi)

The Patriots will have to take a wide receiver at some point relatively early in the draft. If they can’t get Travis Hunter in the first round, someone like Tre Harris makes sense in the second round.

39. Chicago Bears – OT Josh Conerly (Oregon)*

The Bears added three new offensive line starters this off-season and look to have a solid starting five, but they could still add another offensive lineman through the draft, particularly one like Conerly who has the versatility to play inside and outside. Left tackle Braxton Jones and Joe Thuney are free agents next off-season.

40. New Orleans Saints – G Grey Zabel (North Dakota State)

If the Saints take a quarterback in the first round, they will likely look to support him with this pick. Ryan Ramcyzk is likely never playing again due to injuries, while Trevor Penning, his replacement in 2024, was underwhelming and could potentially move to guard long-term. With an unsettled situation at both tackle and guard, the Saints should draft an offensive lineman at some point in the draft. Zabel can play both spots and, considering he could have gone in the first round, he’s a good value at this point in the draft.

41. Chicago Bears – WR Luther Burden (Missouri)

With Keenan Allen unsigned, the Bears don’t have a good third receiver on the roster and could look to the draft for one.

42. New York Jets – TE Elijah Arroyo (Miami)

The Jets passed on Tyler Warren in the first round, but will have to find a tight end at some point, as they are very thin at the position now with Tyler Conklin no longer on the team.

43. San Francisco 49ers – DT TJ Sanders (South Carolina)*

Defensive tackle is another big position of need for the 49ers, with both Maliek Collins and Javon Hargrave leaving this off-season. Someone like TJ Sanders, who they worked out privately, would make sense in the second round.

44. Dallas Cowboys – RB TreVeyon Henderson (Ohio State)*

The Cowboys have one of the thinnest running back rooms in the league and, if they don’t address this position in the first round, they will have to find a running back on day 2.

45. Indianapolis Colts – CB Shavon Revel (East Carolina)*

Shavon Revel would have been a first round pick if he didn’t tear his ACL midway through last season. Still, I don’t expect him to last long into day two and the Colts, who worked him out privately, are one of the teams that will know his injury situation the best. He could push for an immediate role behind Charvarius Ward and Kenny Moore in an unsettled cornerback room and gives them a long-term #1 option, with Ward and Moore going into their age 29 and age 30 seasons respectively.

46. Atlanta Falcons – CB Trey Amos (Mississippi)

After addressing the edge defender position in the first round, cornerback is the next logical spot for the Falcons to address, as it was a position of weakness a year ago and no major additions have been made this off-season.

47. Arizona Cardinals – CB Benjamin Morrison (Notre Dame)

The Cardinals addressed their pass rush in free agency with Josh Sweat and now could turn to the draft to address their secondary. Morrison could compete for a significant role as a rookie in an unsettled position group.

48. Miami Dolphins – DT Darius Alexander (Toledo)

The Dolphins lost Da’Shawn Hand and Calais Campbell in free agency, so they are now very thin at the interior defender position and really need to add talent through the draft.

49. Cincinnati Bengals – G Jonah Savaiinaea (Arizona)*

In addition to all of their defensive needs, the Bengals need help on the offensive line, particularly at guard, where they got poor play at both spots in 2024. Jonah Savaiinaea, who they have worked out privately, makes sense in the second round and could be a starter as a rookie.

50. Seattle Seahawks – WR Jaylin Noel (Iowa State)

The Seahawks added Cooper Kupp as a replacement for DK Metcalf, but he is going into his age 32 season and no one else on the Seahawks’ roster right now seems to have the upside to be a long-term #2 opposite Jaxon Smith-Njigba, so the Seahawks will likely draft a wide receiver at some point.

51. Denver Broncos – DE Jordan Burch (Oregon)

The Broncos could use more depth at the edge defender position, after trading away Baron Browning at the deadline last season. Burch is a versatile player who can play both on the edge and on the interior.

52. Seattle Seahawks – G Donovan Jackson (Ohio State)

The Seahawks haven’t done much of note to address their terrible offensive line. With five picks in the first three rounds of the draft, expect them to come out of the first two days of the draft with at least a couple offensive linemen, even if they don’t take one in the first.

53. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DT Omarr Norman-Lott (Tennessee)*

The Buccaneers need more interior defensive line help and Omarr Norman-Lott is someone they have worked out privately.

54. Green Bay Packers – CB Darien Porter (Iowa State)

Even after signing Nate Hobbs in free agency, cornerback is still a position of need for the Packers, given Jaire Alexander’s injury history. Alexander is also an option to be traded on draft day or released as a cap casualty later this off-season.

55. Los Angeles Chargers – TE Mason Taylor (LSU)*

The tight end position is a big part of offensive coordinator Greg Roman’s offense and Will Dissly was overstretched as their top receiving tight end a year ago, so they will probably look to add another tight end through the draft. Mason Taylor, who they have worked out privately, makes sense in the second round. He could make an immediate impact even as a rookie.

56. Buffalo Bills – DT Tyleik Williams (Ohio State)*

The Bills are expected to start DaQuan Jones in his age 34 season at the interior defender position this season, so they could use an early draft pick on a long-term replacement next to Ed Oliver.

57. Carolina Panthers – OLB Carson Schwesinger (UCLA)*

Carson Schwesinger is arguably the top off ball linebacker in a weak class and the Panthers have worked him out privately. Drafting him in the second round would make sense, given that the Panthers just let go of veteran Shaq Thompson and have an unsettled group behind veteran Josey Jewell.

58. Houston Texans – RB Quinshon Judkins (Ohio State)*

Joe Mixon is heading into his age 29 season with 1,816 career carries, so he probably won’t be able to be a good feature back for much longer. The Texans should look to add better depth behind him to provide an insurance policy and to keep Mixon fresher late in the season. Quinshon Judkins, who the Texans have worked out privately, would make sense in the second round.

59. Baltimore Ravens – WR Jack Bech (TCU)

The Ravens signed DeAndre Hopkins this off-season, but is in his age 33 season and only signed to a one-year deal, so the Ravens could still add a wide receiver relatively early in the draft.

60. Detroit Lions – DT Alfred Collins (Texas)

More depth could be added at the defensive tackle position for the Lions, with Alim McNeil coming off of a torn ACL, DJ Reader going into his age 31 season, and reserves Levi Onwuzurike and Roy Lopez only on one-year deals.

61. Washington Commanders – S Xavier Watts (Notre Dame)

The Commanders lost Jeremy Chinn in free agency and replaced him with Will Harris, who is better off as a reserve. Even as a second round rookie it wouldn’t be hard for Watts to become their best safety, with their other projected starter Quan Martin also being an underwhelming option.

62. Buffalo Bills – WR Jalen Royals (Utah State)

The Bills signed Josh Palmer in free agency, but still lack a clear #1 receiver and could take a chance on adding a wide receiver with upside who can at least provide needed depth in the short-term.

63. Kansas City Chiefs – OT Aireontae Ersery (Minnesota)*

The Chiefs signed Jaylon Moore to a 2-year, 30 million dollar deal in free agency this off-season because of their desperation at the left tackle position, but Moore has just 12 career starts and could easily disappoint. They will probably draft another option relatively early, especially since right tackle Jawaan Taylor, a disappointing free agent signing, could be a cap casualty next off-season.

64. Philadelphia Eagles – DE Oluwafemi Oladejo (UCLA)*

The Eagles love to have a deep defensive line and lost Josh Sweat and Brandon Graham to free agency and retirement respectively this off-season. They added some short-term replacements and still have a pretty deep group, but they could add a draft pick to the mix as well.

65. New York Giants – G Marcus Mbow (Purdue)*

The Giants offensive line isn’t quite as bad as it used to be, but they could still use more depth for when injuries inevitably strike. Mbow is a versatile option that they have worked out privately. 

66. Kansas City Chiefs – RB Cam Skattebo (Arizona State)

Running back isn’t a big need for the Chiefs, but they don’t have a clear long-term option on the roster, with Isiah Pacheco going into the final year of his rookie deal. Skattebo’s pass catching ability makes him a good fit for the Chiefs.

67. Cleveland Browns – OT Ozzy Trapilo (Boston College)

With Jedrick Wills unsigned in free agency, the Browns will need to add a new left tackle option in the draft.

68. Las Vegas Raiders – QB Will Howard (Ohio State)*

The Raiders added Geno Smith this off-season as a stopgap quarterback, but he’s going into his age 35 season, so adding a developmental option behind him makes sense. They have had a private workout with Will Howard, a potential third round pick, who would be reuniting with his collegiate offensive coordinator Chip Kelly in Las Vegas.

69. New England Patriots – DE Nic Scourton (Texas A&M)*

If the Patriots don’t end up with Abdul Carter in the first round, they will probably look to add defensive end depth in the mid rounds. Nic Scourton, who the Patriots have worked out privately, would make sense in the third round.

70. Jacksonville Jaguars – DE Landon Jackson (Arkansas)

The Jaguars have a talented defensive end duo of Josh Allen and Travon Walker, but they could use more depth behind them.

71. New Orleans Saints – CB Quincy Riley (Louisville)*

The Saints started their rebuild when they shipped expensive veteran cornerback Marshon Lattimore to the Commanders for draft picks at the trade deadline this year. They will be looking for a younger, cheaper replacement for him in the draft.

72. Chicago Bears – RB Kaleb Johnson (Iowa)

The Bears have D’Andre Swift, but will probably try to find a better complement for him to try to recreate the two back offense new head coach Ben Johnson ran successfully in Detroit.

73. New York Jets – WR Kyle Williams (Washington State)*

The Jets’ #2 receiver right now is Allen Lazard, who they are looking to cut or trade. The Jets badly need more wide receiver depth behind Garrett Wilson.

74. Carolina Panthers – TE Terrance Ferguson (Oregon)*

The Panthers could use help at the tight end position, where they didn’t have a player with more than 33 catches last season.

75. San Francisco 49ers – OT Charles Grant (William & Mary)

The 49ers need help all over their offensive line. Charles Grant could be a long-term replacement for Trent Williams, who is heading into his age 37 season. Even if he can’t play left tackle long-term, he could develop into a starter somewhere else on the 49ers’ offensive line.

76. Dallas Cowboys – DT Shemar Turner (Texas A&M)*

The Cowboys kept Osa Odighizuwa in free agency, but 2023 1st round pick Mazi Smith has been a massive bust thus far, so the Cowboys need to add another option.

77. New England Patriots – DT Joshua Farmer (Florida State)*

The Patriots could use more depth at defensive tackle, particularly with Christian Barmore coming off of a lost season due to serious medical issues.

78. Arizona Cardinals – WR Jaylin Lane (Virginia Tech)

Michael Wilson is an underwhelming #2 receiver opposite Marvin Harrison and the Cardinals don’t have much depth behind them, so they could add another developmental receiving option in the draft.

79. Philadelphia Eagles – S Kevin Winston (Penn State)

The Eagles traded CJ Gardner-Johnson in a cost cutting move and will likely turn to 2023 3rd round pick Sydney Brown as a starting safety this season, but in case he struggles, the Eagles will need another option.

80. Indianapolis Colts – C Jared Wilson (Georgia)

The Colts lost Ryan Kelly in free agency. They’re moving Tanor Bortolini from guard to center, but if they found a long-term starter at center in the draft, they could keep Bortolini at guard long-term, where he would replace fellow free agent departure Will Fries, who is currently being replaced by Matt Goncalves, who is moving to guard from right tackle, where Braden Smith is in the final year of his contract. After losing multiple starters on the offensive line this off-season, I expect them to take at least one offensive lineman early. Wilson is probably the best pure center in the draft.

81. Cincinnati Bengals – DT Ty Robinson (Nebraska)*

The Bengals continue to add to their defense through the draft. Ty Robinson had a private workout with the team and would make sense in the third round.

82. Seattle Seahawks – OT Cameron Williams (Texas)

The Seahawks need multiple upgrades on the offensive line, so expect them to take at least two offensive linemen with their five picks in the first three rounds.

83. Pittsburgh Steelers – RB Dylan Sampson (Tennessee)*

The Steelers will likely give Jaylen Warren a bigger role with Najee Harris gone, but they should add another back to rotate with him. Dylan Sampson is one of several running backs the Steelers have had a private workout with and he’s probably their best option at this juncture.

84. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – S Jaylen Reed (Penn State)

The Buccaneers didn’t bring back Jordan Whitehead this off-season and will probably add an option to replace him through the draft.

85. Denver Broncos – TE Gunnar Helm (Texas)*

The Broncos filled a big need at tight end by signing Evan Engram in free agency, but he’s going into his age 31 season, so the Broncos could still add a developmental option behind him in the draft. Gunnar Helm, who they have worked out privately, makes sense in the third round.

86. Los Angeles Chargers – DE Josaiah Stewart (Michigan)

The Chargers re-signed Khalil Mack in free agency, but only to a 1-year deal and he is going into his age 34 season. Meanwhile, Joey Bosa was made a cap casualty. Young edge defender help is needed.

87. Green Bay Packers – DE JT Tuimoloau (Ohio State)

Lukas Van Ness has been disappointing as a 2023 1st round pick and the Packers should look to add more depth at the edge defender position in case he doesn’t take a step forward in year three.

88. Jacksonville Jaguars – TE Harold Fannin (Bowling Green)

The Jaguars seem comfortable with Brenton Strange taking over as the starter for the released Evan Engram, but they could use more depth behind him.

89. Houston Texans – WR Isaiah Bond (Texas)

The Texans traded for Christian Kirk to replace Stefon Diggs this off-season, but that won’t preclude the Texans from taking a wide receiver relatively early in the draft, as Kirk is heading into a contract year and Tank Dell could potentially miss the whole 2025 season with injury.

90. Los Angeles Rams – OT Anthony Belton (NC State)

Right tackle Rob Havenstein is heading into his age 33 season and swing tackle Joe Noteboom wasn’t retained this off-season, so the Rams will likely add a developmental offensive tackle at some point in the draft.

91. Baltimore Ravens – G Tate Ratledge (Georgia)

With Patrick Mekari leaving as a free agent, the Ravens need to find an upgrade at least at one guard spot, possibly two if Daniel Faalele doesn’t take a step forward next season.

92. Seattle Seahawks – S Billy Bowman (Oklahoma)

Coby Bryant took a big step forward as a starting safety in 2024, but they don’t have much depth at the position and should add another option in case Bryant regresses in 2025, which also happens to be the final year of Bryant’s rookie deal.

93. New Orleans Saints – WR Elic Ayomanor (Stanford)

The Saints signed Brandin Cooks to be their #3 receiver this off-season, but he’s going into his age 32 season, so the Saints could use a younger developmental option behind him, especially with their top-2 receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed both having a history of injury.

94. Cleveland Browns – RB Devin Neal (Kansas)

The Browns don’t have much at running back behind Jerome Ford, who is best as part of a committee. The Browns could still re-sign Nick Chubb, but it’s unclear if he’ll ever be close to the running back he was before his injury.

95. Kansas City Chiefs – S Jonas Sanker (Virginia)

The Chiefs lost Justin Reid in free agency and didn’t replace him, so the Chiefs will at least need to replenish their depth at the position through the draft.

96. Philadelphia Eagles – CB Jacob Parrish (Kansas State)

The Eagles signed Adoree Jackson as a replacement for Darius Slay, but he was only signed to a one-year deal and he is going into his age 30 season, so the Eagles should look to add a developmental option behind him in the draft.

97. Minnesota Vikings – CB Upton Stout (Western Kentucky)

The Vikings could use more depth at cornerback after some off-season losses.

98. Miami Dolphins – OT Logan Brown (Kansas)

The Dolphins have numerous pressing needs and might not be able to address their offensive line earlier than this, but their offensive line is also a pressing need, particularly in the wake of left tackle Terron Armstead’s retirement.

99. New York Giants – RB DJ Giddens (Kansas State)

The Giants have a promising young back in Tyrone Tracy, but it’s unclear if he can carry the load as a feature back. The Giants have veteran Devin Singletary as a complement, but he is overpaid for his role, so the Giants may look to add another young back in the mid rounds of the draft.

100. San Francisco 49ers – DE Bradyn Swinson (LSU)

The 49ers missed out on adding Joey Bosa as a complement for his brother Nick Bosa, so they will probably have to look to the draft to add more talent on the edge.

101. Los Angeles Rams – DE Princely Umanmielen (Mississippi)

The Rams have a good young edge defender duo in Byron Young and Jared Verse, but their depth behind them is suspect.

102. Detroit Lions – WR Savion Williams (TCU)

Tim Patrick is expected to be the Lions’ #3 receiver in 2025, but he is going into his age 32 season with a significant injury history, so the Lions should add an insurance option through the draft.

1. Chicago Bears – QB Caleb Williams (USC)*
2. Washington Commanders – QB Jayden Daniels (LSU)*
3. New England Patriots – QB Drake Maye (North Carolina)*
4. Arizona Cardinals – WR Marvin Harrison (Ohio State)*
5. Minnesota Vikings (TRADE) – QB JJ McCarthy (Michigan)
6. New York Giants – WR Malik Nabers (LSU)*
7. Tennessee Titans – OT Joe Alt (Notre Dame)*
8. Atlanta Falcons – CB Quinyon Mitchell (Toledo)*
9. Chicago Bears – WR Rome Odunze (Washington)*
10. New York Jets – TE Brock Bowers (Georgia)
11. Los Angeles Chargers (TRADE) – OT JC Latham (Alabama)
12. Denver Broncos – QB Michael Penix (Washington)*
13. Las Vegas Raiders – ED Dallas Turner (Alabama)
14. New Orleans Saints – OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu (Penn State)
15. Indianapolis Colts – CB Terrion Arnold (Alabama)
16. Seattle Seahawks – OT Troy Fautanu (Washington)
17. Jacksonville Jaguars – CB Nate Wiggins (Clemson)
18. Cincinnati Bengals – WR Brian Thomas (LSU)
19. Los Angeles Rams – ED Laiatu Latu (UCLA)
20. Pittsburgh Steelers – CB Cooper DeJean (Iowa)
21. Miami Dolphins – DT Byron Murphy (Texas)
22. Philadelphia Eagles – OT Amarius Mims (Georgia)
23. Los Angeles Chargers – DT Jer’Zhan Newton (Illinois)
24. Dallas Cowboys – WR Adonai Mitchell (Texas)
25. Green Bay Packers – OT Taliese Fuaga (Oregon State)
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – ED Jared Verse (Florida State)
27. Arizona Cardinals – CB Kool-Aid McKinstry (Alabama)
28. Buffalo Bills – WR Xavier Worthy (Texas)
29. Detroit Lions – CB Ennis Rakestraw (Missouri)
30. Baltimore Ravens – DT Jer’Zhan Newton (Illinois)
31. San Francisco 49ers – G Graham Barton (Duke)
32. Kansas City Chiefs – WR Xavier Legette (South Carolina)

Updated: 3/27/24

Next update: Early-to-mid April

1. Chicago Bears – QB Caleb Williams (USC)

Caleb Williams has been locked into this spot for months. The only question has been whether the Bears would trade this pick for a king’s ransom or use it themselves, but the most likely option was always keeping the pick and that was confirmed when the Bears traded incumbent quarterback Justin Fields to the Steelers for a conditional draft pick in 2025, freeing up their starting quarterback spot for Williams.

2. Washington Commanders – QB Drake Maye (North Carolina)

In a way, this is where the draft really begins, with Williams to the Bears at #1 being a lock. The Commanders will almost definitely be using this pick on a quarterback, with veteran journeyman backup Marcus Mariota being the only quarterback of note on their roster, following the trade of incumbent starter Sam Howell to the Seahawks. Which quarterback that will be is not as clear, with strong cases to be made for both Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, and even JJ McCarthy. I could see any of three going here, but rumors are that the Commanders’ new front office loves the high upside Maye over the more polished Daniels, with McCarthy as the wild card option.

3. New England Patriots – QB Jayden Daniels (LSU)

The Patriots could use this pick on Marvin Harrison, a generational wide receiver prospect, after striking out on wide receivers in free agency, or they could trade down and accumulate multiple picks to address their many needs, but I still think it’s most likely that they take one of the quarterbacks that Washington doesn’t. A franchise quarterback is still the most valuable asset in the NFL and opportunities to pick high in a strong quarterback draft don’t come every year.

4. Arizona Cardinals – WR Marvin Harrison (Ohio State)

Arizona is in a good spot as the highest drafting team that doesn’t need a quarterback. They could trade down here with a team that needs a quarterback and accumulate more picks, or they could take the consensus best non-quarterback in the draft in Marvin Harrison, who would fill a huge need at wide receiver. A trade is a possibility, but the price will probably be steep because of the opportunity cost of not getting Harrison and the Cardinals already have another pick in the first round, so I think it’s more likely that they just stay put and take Harrison.

5. Minnesota Vikings (TRADE) – QB JJ McCarthy (Michigan)

The Chargers are also in a good spot at 5, not needing a quarterback, because they can either take Harrison if the Cardinals trade down with a quarterback needy team or they can be the ones to trade down for multiple picks if the Cardinals opt to take Harrison. In this scenario, the Cardinals take Harrison and the Chargers trade down with the Vikings, who acquired another first round pick (23) in a trade with the Texans and, as a result, can present the best package to move up. The Vikings are desperate for a quarterback after losing Kirk Cousins and replacing him with Sam Darnold and they reportedly love JJ McCarthy, who is a likely top-10, if not top-5 pick, depending on trades. A package of their original first round pick at 11, the Texans’ pick at 23, and a later pick in 2025 should be enough to get this done and it would make a lot of sense for the Chargers, who don’t need a quarterback, but have multiple pressing needs.

6. New York Giants – WR Rome Odunze (Washington)

The Giants could take JJ McCarthy here if he’s available, with Daniel Jones likely to be released at the end of next season when his guaranteed money is up, but Minnesota moved up ahead of them to grab McCarthy, so the Giants will have to address another position. Fortunately, they do have many other pressing needs, including wide receiver, where the Giants lack a #1 option or even a good #2. Malik Nabers is an option to be the second wide receiver off the board behind Harrison, but I think Odunze is a little bit ahead of him right now. He’d give Daniel Jones the true #1 option he’s never really had and, in the likely scenario that the Giants decide to move on from Jones in a year when his guaranteed money is up, Odunze will make life easier for whoever their next quarterback happens to be.

7. Tennessee Titans – OT Joe Alt (Notre Dame)

The Titans are another team with a ton of needs, but their biggest one is offensive line and fortunately this is a very strong offensive line class. The Titans used a first round pick on Peter Skoronski in last year’s draft, but aside from free agent acquisition center Lloyd Cushenberry, Skoronski is the only player locked into a starting job on their offensive line in 2024 and he’s probably a guard long-term. Even if Skoronski ends up being a tackle long-term, the Titans need a bookend for him and Alt, who is probably the top tackle prospect in this draft, is a great value here at 7.

8. Atlanta Falcons – CB Quinyon Mitchell (Toledo)

The Falcons are likely to focus on defense here, after addressing their biggest offensive needs of quarterback and wide receiver in free agency with Kirk Cousins and Darnell Mooney. This is a weak defensive draft at the top compared to the elite offensive prospects in this draft, but the Falcons should have their choice of defenders at 8 and this would be a good spot for the first defensive player to come off the board. Edge defender Dallas Turner is a strong option and would add to this team’s pass rush, but cornerback is a slightly bigger need in my opinion and Quinyon Mitchell is a similar caliber prospect as Turner.

9. Chicago Bears – WR Malik Nabers (LSU)

The Bears traded for Keenan Allen to give them another option at wide receiver opposite DJ Moore, but the Bears only gave up a 4th round pick in that trade and Allen is going into his age 32 season and a contract year, so that trade doesn’t preclude the Bears from taking a wide receiver at 9. Nabers would give them a needed third wide receiver in the short-term and a long-term bookend for DJ Moore. Teams normally take a complementary offensive player with their next pick after taking a first round quarterback and Nabers would be their best option, given that the Bears do have an intriguing young offensive line already.

10. New York Jets – TE Brock Bowers (Georgia)

Offensive tackle was the Jets’ biggest need coming into this off-season, but they addressed it with Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses, who will start on the left and right side respectively in 2024. They’ll also be in their age 34 and age 33 seasons respectively, so the Jets could still take a tackle of the future here and plug him in at guard in the meantime, but the Jets also signed John Simpson to a sizeable contract in free agency to be their other guard opposite Alijah Vera-Tucker, who is probably their best returning offensive lineman, so guard isn’t really a need and, on top of that, the Jets are in win now mode with a quarterback in Aaron Rodgers who is heading into his age 41 season, so they’ll probably use this pick in a way that best maximizes their chances of winning in 2024. With that in mind, Brock Bowers makes a lot of sense as an elite tight end prospect who can fill an immediate need and contribute in a big way right away.

11. Los Angeles Chargers (TRADE) – OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu (Penn State)

The Chargers’ trade down works out well as they can get a player at 11 who would have been in consideration at 5. If the Chargers stay put at 5, a wide receiver Like Rome Odunze or Malik Nabers would be a strong possibility and if they stay put at 5 and take a tackle Joe Alt is more likely than Fashanu, but Fashanu would at least be in consideration and, with the other three aforementioned players off the board here at 11, this becomes an easy choice for the Chargers, who have a pressing need at right tackle that Fashanu can fill right away. The Chargers would then target a wide receiver or address one of their many defensive needs with their second pick in the first round at 23.

12. Denver Broncos – ED Dallas Turner (Alabama)

The Broncos are another team that will attempt to move up for a quarterback, with Jarrett Stidham currently penciled in as their starter, but they don’t have the multiple 2024 first round picks the Vikings have and they might not want to trade away multiple future high draft picks after all of the high draft picks they gave away for Russell Wilson, so the most likely scenario is they stay put at 12, miss out on one of the top-4 quarterback prospects, and address the position on day 2. At 12, Dallas Turner would be a strong option because he could be argued as the best available player and would fill a need at the edge defender position for a team who ranked just 23rd on PFF in team pass rush grade in 2023.

13. Las Vegas Raiders – CB Terrion Arnold (Alabama)

This pick stays the same from my pre-free agency mock draft, as cornerback was one of the Raiders’ biggest needs going into free agency and went unaddressed, with mediocre incumbent starter Amik Robertson signing with the Lions. Arnold would provide a starting caliber cornerback for a team that doesn’t really have one outside of Nate Hobbs.

14. New Orleans Saints – OT Troy Fautanu (Washington)

Trevor Penning was the Saints’ first round pick in 2022, but he’s largely been a bust in two years in the league, making just 6 starts thus far in his career due to a combination of injury and ineffectiveness. The Saints might give him one more shot at the left tackle job in 2024, but they at least need a good alternative at the position and Fautanu can give them that, while also giving them a starting option at guard, where James Hurst is a mediocre option in his age 33 season.

15. Indianapolis Colts – CB Nate Wiggins (Clemson)

The Colts re-signed Kenny Moore in free agency and have 2023 2nd round pick JuJu Brents, but they need a third cornerback to go with them. Nate Wiggins makes sense here for a team that doesn’t have a lot of other pressing needs. He’ll probably be the third cornerback off the board behind Quinyon Mitchell and Terrion Arnold, but he still has a good chance to be drafted in the teens.

16. Seattle Seahawks – OT JC Latham (Alabama)

The Seahawks’ offensive line struggled last season with both offensive tackle Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas missing time with injury and their replacement options struggling in their absence. Latham would give them a better insurance policy and could also play guard for a team that needs to replace Damien Lewis, who signed with the Panthers this off-season as a free agent.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars – ED Jared Verse (Florida State)

Jared Verse is a bit of a luxury pick for the Jaguars who don’t have any pressing needs that line up with the best players available at this point in the draft. Josh Allen and Travon Walker both had double digit sack seasons at the edge defender position last year, but their depth behind them is really lacking and Verse is a great value at 17. Allen is also on the franchise tag and has yet to be signed long-term.

18. Cincinnati Bengals – WR Brian Thomas (LSU)

Wide receiver might not seem like a big need for the Bengals, but they’re unlikely to re-sign Tyler Boyd in free agency this off-season, while the franchise tagged Tee Higgins might not be kept beyond this next season, with the Bengals’ cap situation getting tougher in the next few years with extensions for Joe Burrow and JaMarr Chase due. Thomas would give them a long-term receiving option opposite Chase and it doesn’t hurt that he also went to LSU, where Burrow and Chase both did.

19. Los Angeles Rams – ED Laiatu Latu (UCLA)

It’s weird seeing the Rams finally picking in the first round again. Trading down and accumulating multiple picks is a strong possibility, given how good they’ve been at finding gems in the mid-rounds, but if they stay put, Laiatu Latu would make a lot of sense, as the Rams need to get better at the edge defender position. Michael Hoecht started 17 games there in 2023, but struggled playing out of position and was tendered at the lowest level as a restricted free agent this off-season, which likely means the Rams don’t view him as a long-term starter opposite 2023 3rd round pick Byron Young, one of those mid-round gems, who showed a lot of promise in year one.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers – OT Taliese Fuaga (Oregon State)

The Steelers used their first round pick on Broderick Jones in last year’s draft, but they need a long-term bookend for him, with incumbent starting left tackle Dan Moore being a mediocre option who now heads into the final year of his contract. The Steelers could take advantage of a strong offensive tackle class and use their first round pick on that position in back-to-back years.

21. Miami Dolphins – DT Byron Murphy (Texas)

The Dolphins probably wanted to keep Christian Wilkins, but for financial reasons they couldn’t franchise tag him or match the 4-year, 110 million dollar deal he got from the Raiders in free agency. They could opt to replace him in the draft and Byron Murphy would be a good fit for them with the 21st pick.

22. Philadelphia Eagles – CB Cooper DeJean (Iowa)

Darius Slay and James Bradberry were one of the best cornerback duos in the league during the Eagles run to the Super Bowl in 2022, but both took a big step back in 2023 and now they head into their age 33 and age 31 seasons respectively, so the Eagles will likely look at young cornerbacks early in the draft. DeJean can play the slot and/or safety while Slay and Bradberry remain on the roster as outside cornerbacks and DeJean the potential to be a long-term option on the outside as well.

23. Los Angeles Chargers (TRADE) – WR Xavier Legette (South Carolina)

With the Chargers parting ways with both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams for financial reasons this off-season, wide receiver becomes a huge position of need for them. Last year’s first round pick Quentin Johnston has been a bust thus far and, even if he turns it around, the Chargers still don’t have much at the wide receiver position behind him. The Chargers will consider wide receivers with the 5th pick and if they move down to accumulate more picks, expect them to use at least one of their early picks on the position.

24. Dallas Cowboys – WR Adonai Mitchell (Texas)

The Cowboys still don’t have a good #2 wide receiver opposite Ceedee Lamb. Brandin Cooks was brought in last off-season, but he disappointed and now heads into his age 31 contract year. On top of that, fellow wide receiver Michael Gallup was also cut this off-season, rather than being paid 9.5 million dollars non-guaranteed on a contract that he signed when he was a much better player before his ACL tear. The Cowboys will likely address this position early in the draft. Mitchell would likely start as the #3 receiver behind Lamb and Cooks, but would give them a long-term complement for Lamb that they currently lack.

25. Green Bay Packers – OT Amarius Mims (Georgia)

It wasn’t a surprise the Packers cut David Bakhtiari, who was owed 20.9 million in his age 33 season in 2024 and had played just 13 games in the past 3 seasons due to knee problems, but the Packers also let Yosh Nijman leave in free agency and he was their primary fill-in for Bakhtiari over the past few seasons, so the Packers are pretty thin at the tackle position now. Rasheed Walker is currently penciled into the left tackle job, but he’s better off as a swing tackle. This is a position they could address in the first round of a strong offensive tackle class.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – ED Chop Robinson (Penn State)

The Buccaneers made the aging Shaq Barrett a cap casualty this off-season and now need help at the edge defender position. Yaya Diaby and Joe Tyron-Shoyinka are young players with some promise, but the Buccaneers could add another blue chip prospect to the mix in the first round of the draft.

27. Arizona Cardinals – CB Ennis Rakestraw (Missouri)

Going into the off-season, the Cardinals didn’t have any starting caliber cornerbacks. They added Sean Murphy-Bunting in free agency, but he’s a very underwhelming option as a de facto #1 cornerback and they don’t have much behind him on the depth chart, so expect them to address this position relatively early in the draft.

28. Buffalo Bills – ED Darius Robinson (Missouri)

Veteran edge defenders Leonard Floyd and Shaq Lawson weren’t brought back this off-season. AJ Epenesa was re-signed and, along with Greg Rousseau, those two younger players will likely play bigger roles in 2024, but the Bills can’t count on their depth behind them, with their only real option being Von Miller, who is now going into his age 35 season and didn’t look nearly the same as usual in 2023 after another major injury. The Bills will probably add an edge defender early in the draft.

29. Detroit Lions – CB Kool-Aid McKinstry (Alabama)

The Lions had to cut starting cornerback Cameron Sutton because of off-the-field problems, leaving them with a need at the position. The Lions fortunately acquired Carlton Davis from the Buccaneers via trade and Amik Robertson as a free agent, but Robertson is a mediocre option who didn’t get a big contract and, even if he locks down a starting job, the Lions could still use another, with Brian Branch potentially moving full-time to safety in 2023 in the absence of Tracy Walker and CJ Gardner-Johnson, who both left the team this off-season.

30. Baltimore Ravens – DT Jer’Zhan Newton (Illinois)

The Ravens re-signed Justin Madubuike and Michael Pierce this off-season, but still could use an upgrade at the third spot on their 3-man base defensive line, with the mediocre Brent Urban penciled into that spot for what would be his age 33 season in 2024. Newton would give them that upgrade while also having the ability to play all three downs inside next to Madubuike.

31. San Francisco 49ers – G Graham Barton (Duke)

The 49ers could use some young offensive line help with three of their projected five starting offensive linemen for 2024 being on the wrong side of 30, with left tackle Trent Williams going into his age 36 season and center Jake Brendel and guard Jon Feliciano both going into their age 32 seasons. Graham Barton has the versatility to play anywhere on the offensive line and would be a good fit for the 49ers zone blocking scheme.

32. Kansas City Chiefs – OT Tyler Guyton (Oklahoma)

The Chiefs won the Super Bowl this season, but their offense struggled by its normal standards because of issues in the receiving corps and on the offensive line. The Chiefs addressed their receiving corps in free agency with Marquise Brown and have a promising young receiver in Rashee Rice going into his second season in the league in 2024, so the tackle position is probably a bigger need for them now, with inexperienced 2023 3rd round pick Wanya Morris being an underwhelming option to replace veteran Donovan Smith on the blindside and highly paid right tackle Jawaan Taylor struggling mightily in his first season in Kansas City. Tyler Guyton could help right away at either spot.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars – DE Travon Walker (Georgia)
2. Detroit Lions – DE Aidan Hutchinson (Michigan)
3. Houston Texans – OT Ikem Ekwonu (NC State)
4. New York Jets – CB Ahmad Gardner (Cincinnati)
5. New Orleans Saints – QB Malik Willis (Liberty)
6. Carolina Panthers – QB Kenny Pickett (Pittsburgh)
7. New York Giants – OT Evan Neal (Alabama)
8. Atlanta Falcons – DE Kayvon Thibodeaux (Oregon)
9. Houston Texans – CB Derek Stingley (LSU)
10. New York Jets – DE Jermaine Johnson (Florida State)
11. Pittsburgh Steelers – QB Matt Corral (Mississippi)
12. Kansas City Chiefs – WR Jameson Williams (Alabama)
13. Seattle Seahawks – OT Charles Cross (Mississippi State)
14. Green Bay Packers – WR Garrett Wilson (Ohio State)
15. Philadelphia Eagles – WR Drake London (USC)
16. New York Giants – S Kyle Hamilton (Notre Dame)
17. Los Angeles Chargers – DT Jordan Davis (Georgia)
18. Philadelphia Eagles – CB Trent McDuffie (Washington)
19. New York Giants – DE George Karlaftis (Purdue)
20. Washington Commanders – WR Chris Olave (Ohio State)
21. New England Patriots – OT Trevor Penning (Northern Iowa)
22. Baltimore Ravens – C Tyler Linderbaum (Iowa)
23. Arizona Cardinals – G Kenyon Green (Texas A&M)
24. Seattle Seahawks – QB Desmond Ridder (Cincinnati)
25. Buffalo Bills – CB Andrew Booth (Clemson)
26. Tennessee Titans – MLB Devin Lloyd (Utah)
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DT Devonte Wyatt (Georgia)
28. Green Bay Packers – G Zion Johnson (Boston College)
29. Minnesota Vikings – CB Kaiir Elam (Florida)
30. Minnesota Vikings – DE Boye Mafe (Minnesota)
31. Cincinnati Bengals – MLB Quay Walker (Georgia)
32. Detroit Lions – OLB Nakobe Dean (Georgia)

Throughout my season previews and my picks during the season, I refer to certain statistics as being either predictive, predictable, or not. I wanted to discuss what I mean by that and put all my supporting statistical evidence in one place. First, let’s define some terms.

Predictability is probably the easiest term to understand. A statistic is predictable if it can be easily predicted from one year to the next. This is measured by calculating the correlation between a team’s performance in a specific statistic in a specific season with its performance in that same statistic the following season.

Essentially, the higher the correlation the easier it is to predict how a team will perform in a certain statistic based solely on how they performed the season before. This is important because if a statistic can’t be reasonably predicted on a year-to-year basis, it doesn’t provide us much predictive value.

That leads into the second term, predictiveness. A statistic is predictive if it can be used to predict a team’s likelihood for winning. I am going to measure two types of winning percentage predictiveness, one measuring same-season win predictiveness and one measuring next season’s win predictiveness. 

Same-season win predictiveness is measuring the correlation between a certain statistic and a team’s winning percentage in the same season. For example, as a team averages more yards per play, their likelihood of winning goes up, but not at a perfect 1:1 rate and likely not at the exact same rate as other statistics, which have their own statistical relationship with winning percentage. Measuring correlation allows us to see which statistics most closely vary with winning percentage. 

That being said, while same-season win predictiveness is definitely worth taking into account, it’s not a particularly useful stat for handicapping purposes because it only works with data from games that have already happened. Once I know how many yards a team gained in a game, I can give you a pretty good guess as to whether or not they won the game, but that isn’t all that useful.

Next season’s win predictiveness is really what we want because we want to be able to take last year’s statistics and use them to most effectively predict future winning. Rather than just measuring the correlation between a statistic and the same season’s winning percentage, we also want to measure the correlation between a statistic and the next season’s winning percentage to see how closely those variables relate.

If this isn’t making sense yet, hopefully it will when I get into some examples. Let’s start with a common one, turnover margin. All statistics included in this post are over a sample size of the past 10 seasons (2011-2020).

Statistic	Year to Year	Winning %	Next Year Winning %
TO Margin	11.26%	69.67%	23.73%

We all know intuitively that winning the turnover margin has a significant impact on winning, but this puts it into context. A team’s turnover margin correlates with same-season winning at close to a 70% rate. However, while it is predictive of same-season winning, it is highly unpredictable year-to-year, with a correlation of just about 11% year-to-year, meaning from a statistical standpoint, a team’s turnover margin almost might as well be random year-to-year. 

As a result, while turnover margin is predictive of same-season winning, it really isn’t predictive of next year’s winning percentage. I will break this down further later, but I wanted to use this as an example right off the bat.

Another good example is winning percentage itself.

Statistic	Year to Year	Winning %	Next Year Winning %
Win %	25.31%	100.00%	25.31%

Winning percentage correlation is obviously going to be 100% because we are correlating a statistic with itself within the same season, but on a year-to-year basis, winning percentage only correlates with itself at about a 25% rate, meaning winning percentage can’t be used to accurately predict itself on a year-to-year basis. 

It’s well-known the NFL is a parity league that is highly unpredictable every season, but this just puts into context how unpredictable and how tough it is to handicap a team’s future success. Fortunately, there are statistics that are significantly more predictive of future winning percentage than winning percentage itself.

Let’s start with one I’ve already mentioned, yards per play. The below chart breaks out yards per play, yards per play allowed, and yards per play differential. Note: any “allowed” statistics will have a negative correlation with winning percentage because the less a team allows, the more they win.

Statistics	Year to Year	Winning %	Next Year Winning %
YPP	36.08%	50.46%	23.40%
YPPA	42.74%	-31.16%	-15.76%
YPPD	36.10%	67.06%	31.97%

All three statistics are reasonably predictable on a year-to-year basis, with yards per play allowed actually being the most predictable of the three by a slight amount, although offense correlates with winning at a much higher rate and is much more predictive of future winning than defense. This is a theme we’ll see throughout this analysis, offense being more predictive than defense.

In terms of overall differential, this statistic correlates with same season winning slightly less than turnover margin does, but because it is significantly more predictable, it’s significantly more predictive of future winning, correlating with future winning at about a 32% rate, already a significant increase from the 25% predictiveness we get just from looking at winning percentage.

We can do better than that though. Let’s look at another obvious one that would correlate heavily with winning, points, more specifically points per play, points per play allowed, and points per play differential.

Statistic	Year to Year	Winning %	Next Year Winning %
PPP	31.57%	75.24%	34.46%
PPPA	31.41%	-67.81%	-26.27%
PPPD	35.25%	89.95%	38.39%

Right off the bat, we see this correlates with same season winning at a very high rate, which is to be expected, considering points are what decides games. It’s not a perfect 1:1 correlation as teams can win a high percentage of close games in a single season sample size, and, as a result, would have a better record than their point differential would suggest, but point differential is the most predictive statistic of same season winning that we’re going to find. 

It’s also a good predictor of next season’s winning percentage, as this is the best predictor of future winning that we’ve seen yet by far.  However, there are a couple big problems with points per play differential as a statistic. For one, while it is relatively predictive, it’s not all that predictable, predicting itself at just a 35% rate, which gets even worse when you look at points per play and points per play against, which only correlates with itself on a year-to-year basis at about 31.5%. 

That leads into my second big problem with this statistic, that it does a relatively poor job of breaking out offense versus defense, which is likely why points per play and points per play allowed are relatively unpredictable statistics. Return touchdowns by special teams or defense count towards points per play and against opponents’ points per play allowed and field position skews this statistic even more, as good defenses can easily look bad in this statistic if their offense constantly gives them terrible field position to start, and vice versa. 

At first glance, it might seem like a good thing that the gap in predictiveness between points per play and points per play allowed is less than other offensive/defensive statistics, but I think that is a result of neither stat accurately representing the side of the field it is supposed to represent. As we’ll see more going forward, if offense and defense are broken out from each other properly, offense always is significantly more predictive.

The next statistic is a personal favorite of mine, first down rate differential, which includes first down rate and first down rate allowed.

	Year to Year	Winning %	Next Year Winning %
FDR	48.42%	54.65%	29.01%
FDRA	41.08%	-28.13%	-10.27%
FDRD	43.20%	71.75%	33.78%

Right away what stands out is that, across the board, first down rate and its associated statistics are significantly more predictable than anything we’ve seen thus far and, in fact, it is the most predictable statistic year-to-year. It also does a great job separating offensive and defensive performance and, unsurprisingly, there is a significant gap between the predictiveness of offense and defense performance, more so than any statistic we’ve seen thus far. As a result, first down rate correlates with future winning more than yards per play, but yards per play allowed correlates with future winning more than first down rate allowed.

The disappointing thing about first down rate differential is that, while it is significantly more predictable year-to-year and higher correlated with same-season winning than yards per play differential, it isn’t actually more predictive of future winning year-to-year than yards per play differential, at least over the 10-year sample of this study. On top of that, in comparison to points per play differential, it is less predictive of future winning, despite the problems with points per play differential. 

However, there is still a lot to like with first down rate differential and there is a key thing that points per play differential takes into account that first down rate doesn’t that likely explains why it is more predictive. That key thing is special teams, which both yards per play differential and first down rate differential both lack, likely the reason they are not as predictive. Reliable special teams statistics are hard to come by, but one that does a great job is DVOA, Football Outsiders’ signature statistic.

To illustrate this point, I’ve broken out overall, offensive, defensive, and special teams DVOA.

	Year to Year	Winning %	Next Year Winning %
DVOA	41.36%	87.54%	38.67%
DVOA O	41.28%	70.29%	31.10%
DVOA D	39.86%	-48.32%	-18.27%
DVOA ST	38.73%	26.18%	18.62%

Across the board, DVOA does very well, correlating with next year’s winning at about the same rate as points per play differential, while effectively separating out performance in all three phases of the game. The standout here is special teams though, having year-to-year predictability in line with other phases in DVOA and surprisingly correlating with winning and future winning relatively well, given how small a part of the game special teams is. 

In fact, special teams DVOA is actually slightly more predictive of winning than defensive DVOA, at least over the course of this 10-year sample. I would take that with a bit of a grain of salt, but it’s clear that special teams performance has a much bigger impact on winning than most, including myself, would expect. Because of this, I am going to go back and factor special teams more significantly into my season previews.

Given that special teams is likely what makes points per play differential more predictive than first down rate differential, I decided to add special teams DVOA to first down rate differential and see what that does to predictiveness. I played around with different allocations of offensive, defensive, and special teams performance, but I found that 45% offense, 30% defense, and 25% special teams was most predictive, which once again reinforces the importance of special teams.

	Year to Year	Winning %	Next Year Winning %
45/30/25	46.05%	75.55%	39.20%

Just by adding special teams to first down rate differential, we get a statistic that is more predictive than anything we’ve seen so far. We can do better than this though. Since we know that yards per play allowed is more predictive than first down rate allowed, let’s see what happens when we swap yards per play allowed into this hybrid statistic. Once again, I found the 45/30/25 split was most predictive.

	Year to Year	Winning %	Next Year Winning %
45/30/25	47.34%	75.16%	41.50%

This gets us to an impressive number when you consider that winning percentage itself predicts future winning percentage at just a 25% rate. NFL records are very tough to predict year-to-year, but having a statistic that correlates with future winning percentage at a 41.5% rate is a very useful tool for handicapping. 

For the record, I tried swapping in points per play allowed and defensive DVOA and both lowered the predictiveness significantly. Points per play allowed didn’t surprise me because, even though it was predictive, it includes things that the offense is already being given credit for. Defensive DVOA surprised me a little, but it’s not a very predictive statistic year-to-year, so it’s not a huge surprise that including it did not have a positive effect on predictiveness.

Let’s see how each team performed in this metric in 2020.

BUF	2.81%
NO	2.23%
KC	1.68%
SEA	1.55%
BAL	1.44%
IND	1.28%
TB	1.18%
ARZ	0.97%
GB	0.92%
NE	0.73%
LAR	0.61%
SF	0.58%
TEN	0.17%
WAS	0.12%
CLE	0.10%
PIT	0.07%
CHI	0.03%
CAR	-0.04%
LV	-0.16%
DAL	-0.17%
MIA	-0.23%
DET	-0.45%
MIN	-0.46%
NYG	-0.65%
HOU	-0.79%
ATL	-1.10%
PHI	-1.15%
LAC	-1.65%
CIN	-1.91%
DEN	-2.14%
JAX	-2.32%
NYJ	-3.22%

Obviously, this can’t be blindly followed, as 41.5% correlation is still not that high and a lot changes for teams from season to season to affect their performance from year-to-year, but this is a much better base point to start with than win/loss record.

I also wanted to show a few other breakdowns. This one shows yards per play differential broken out into pass offense, pass defense, rush offense, and rush defense.

	Year to Year	Winning %	Next Year Winning %
PYA	35.26%	58.72%	24.34%
PYAA	37.21%	-45.59%	-25.51%
RYA	27.64%	11.24%	7.13%
RYAA	21.94%	-9.14%	-24.38%

Unsurprisingly, offensive statistics are more predictable and predictive than defensive statistics and, also perhaps unsurprisingly, pass statistics are more predictable than rush statistics and by a significant amount.

Let’s take a look further at passing statistics.

	Year to Year	Winning %	Next Year Winning %
PYA	35.26%	58.72%	24.34%
Completion %	45.08%	49.02%	15.91%
TD%	25.31%	60.52%	24.10%
INT %	18.82%	-50.43%	-19.86%

We see that completion percentage is much more predictable year-to-year than any other metric, but yards per play correlates better with winning and next year’s winning. Touchdown rate also correlates with winning and next year’s winning, but is tough to predict on a year-to-year basis. Interception rate is as well, but it’s notable that it’s significantly more predictive than turnover margin, which brings me to my next chart.

	Year to Year	Winning %	Next Year Winning %
INT %	18.82%	-50.43%	-19.86%
Def INT %	11.73%	48.71%	3.65%
Fumbles Lost	2.43%
Fumbles Recovered	-3.23%

While turnover margin itself is very unpredictive, interception rate seems to at least have some predictive value, which makes sense, given that passing offense is what tends to be most consistent year-to-year. Teams who fare well in turnover margin as a result of having a quarterback who had a low interception rate are more likely to see their turnover success continue than teams reliant on defensive takeaways or avoiding fumbles. For fumbles, I didn’t even bother calculating its relationship to winning because of how unpredictable it is year to year. There is no predictive value to a statistic you can’t reasonably predict and fumbles are a perfect example of that.

	Year to Year
1st/2nd	34.96%
3rd/4th	38.75%
1st/2nd vs. 3rd/4th differential	10.52%
1st/2nd allowed	29.71%
3rd/4th allowed	30.81%
1st/2nd vs. 3rd/4th allowed differential	12.22%

This is the last one I want to show for now. I may add more to this later, but this breaks out the year-to-year predictability of first down rate and first down rate allowed between early downs (1st and 2nd) and later downs (3rd and 4th). I didn’t correlate these statistics with winning because it’s obvious that better success on 3rd and 4th down leads to better results on the scoreboard, but it’s worth noting that those downs don’t tend to be any more predictive than early downs and there is minimal, if any, evidence that teams can consistently outperform their 1st and 2nd down performance on 3rd and 4th down year-to-year, as there is very little year-to-year correlation in the differential between early down and later down performance.

Updated: 4/30/21

33. Jacksonville Jaguars – DT Christian Barmore (Alabama)

34. New York Jets – OLB Azeez Ojulari (Georgia)

35. Atlanta Falcons – G Quinn Meinerz (Wisconsin-Whitewater)

36. Miami Dolphins – RB Javonte Williams (North Carolina)

37. Philadelphia Eagles – MLB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (Notre Dame)

38. Cincinnati Bengals – C Creed Humphrey (Oklahoma)

39. Carolina Panthers – OT Teven Jenkins (Oklahoma State)

40. Denver Broncos – OLB Carlos Basham (Wake Forest)

41. Detroit Lions – WR Terrace Marshall (LSU)

42. New York Giants – OLB Ronnie Perkins (Oklahoma)

43. San Francisco 49ers – CB Asante Samuel (Florida State)

44. Dallas Cowboys – S Trevon Moehrig (TCU)

45. Jacksonville Jaguars – TE Pat Freiermuth (Penn State)

46. New England Patriots – WR Elijah Moore (Mississippi)

47. Los Angeles Chargers – CB Kelvin Joseph (Kentucky)

48. Las Vegas Raiders – CB Aaron Robinson (Central Florida)

49. Arizona Cardinals – WR Rondale Moore (Purdue)

50. Miami Dolphins – OT Dillon Radunz (North Dakota State)

51. Washington Football Team – QB Kellen Mond (Texas A&M)

52. Chicago Bears – OT Jalen Mayfield (Michigan)

53. Tennessee Titans – OT Samuel Cosmi (Texas)

54. Indianapolis Colts – OT Spencer Brown (Northern Iowa)

55. Pittsburgh Steelers – QB Kyle Trask (Florida)

56. Seattle Seahawks – CB Tyson Campbell (Georgia)

57. Los Angeles Rams – MLB Nick Bolton (Missouri)

58. Kansas City Chiefs – DE Joseph Ossai (Texas)

59. Cleveland Browns – DT Levi Onwuzurike (Washington)

60. New Orleans Saints – CB Robert Rochell (Central Arkansas)

61. Buffalo Bills – RB Michael Carter (North Carolina)

62. Green Bay Packers – WR Tylan Wallace (Oklahoma State)

63. Kansas City Chiefs – WR Nico Collins (Michigan)

64. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – CB Elijah Molden (Washington)

65. Jacksonville Jaguars – G Wyatt Davis (Ohio State)

66. Minnesota Vikings – S Jevon Holland (Oregon)

67. Houston Texans – C Josh Myers (Ohio State)

68. Atlanta Falcons – DE Patrick Jones (Pittsburgh)

69. Cincinnati Bengals – MLB Jabril Cox (LSU)

70. Philadelphia Eagles – CB Ifeatu Melifonwu (Syracuse)

71. Denver Broncos – OLB Chris Rumph (Duke)

72. Detroit Lions – MLB Baron Browning (Ohio State)

73. Carolina Panthers – DT Milton Williams (Louisiana Tech)

74. Washington Football Team – OT Liam Eichenburg (Notre Dame)

75. Dallas Cowboys – TE Tommy Tremble (Notre Dame)

76. New York Giants – G Jackson Carmen (Clemson)

77. Los Angeles Chargers – RB Trey Sermon (Ohio State)

78. Minnesota Vikings – DT Daviyon Nixon (Iowa)

79. Las Vegas Raiders – CB Benjamin St-Juste (Minnesota)

80. Las Vegas Raiders – WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (USC)

81. Miami Dolphins – S Jamar Johnson (Indiana)

82. Washington Football Team – WR D’Wayne Eskridge (Western Michigan)

83. Chicago Bears – CB Paulson Adebo (Stanford)

84. Dallas Cowboys – DE Rashad Weaver (Pittsburgh)

85. Tennessee Titans – WR Dyami Brown (North Carolina)

86. Minnesota Vikings – CB Ambry Thomas (Michigan)

87. Pittsburgh Steelers – OT Walker Little (Stanford)

88. Los Angeles Rams – OLB Jordan Smith (UAB)

89. Cleveland Browns – MLB Chazz Surratt (North Carolina)

90. Minnesota Vikings – DE Dayo Odeyingbo (Vanderbilt)

91. Cleveland Browns – WR Josh Palmer (Tennessee)

92. Green Bay Packers – OT Brady Christensen (BYU)

93. Buffalo Bills – TE Hunter Long (Boston College)

94. Baltimore Ravens – OT James Hudson (Cincinnati)

95. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – RB Kenneth Gainwell (Memphis)

96. New England Patriots – MLB Dylan Moses (Alabama)

97. Los Angeles Chargers – G Aaron Banks (Notre Dame)

98. New Orleans Saints – S Richie Grant (UCF)

99. Dallas Cowboys – CB Shakur Brown (Michigan State)

100. Tennessee Titans – TE Brevin Jordan (Miami)

101. Detroit Lions – QB Davis Mills (Stanford)

102. San Francisco 49ers – WR Amari Rodgers (Clemson)

103. Los Angeles Rams – C Landon Dickerson (Alabama)

104. Baltimore Ravens – WR Anthony Schwartz (Auburn)

105. New Orleans Saints – DT Alim McNeil (NC State)