Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings: 2016 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 11 NFL Picks, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Uncategorized, Vikings

Arizona Cardinals (4-4-1) at Minnesota Vikings (5-4)

When the Vikings were 5-0 on the strength of a +11 turnover margin and a +4 return touchdown margin, two things that tend to be unsustainable, I thought they were the most overrated team in the league. Since then, they’ve lost 4 straight games. Over those 4 games, they were +1 in turnover margin and -1 in return touchdown margin, which made a huge difference and exposed one of the most stagnant offenses in the league. Now at 5-4, they’re not really overrated anymore, but we’re still getting good value with the visiting Arizona Cardinals in this game because the Cardinals have been significantly better than their record this season.

Despite a 4-4-1 record, the Cardinals rank 5th in the NFL with a +42 point differential. They also rank 1st in first down rate differential, which they also led the league in last season when they went 13-3. This year, they could easily be 7-2 if not for special teams mistakes against New England, Seattle, and Los Angeles and they have won the first down rate battle in 8 of 9 games. Despite that, we’re still getting 2 points with them in Minnesota against the Vikings, who rank 19th in first down rate differential. The Vikings are also in a tough spot as they have to turn around and play on Thursday Night Football next week on Thanksgiving. Favorites are just 50-82 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football. The Cardinals are worth betting on this week, though I’d be more confident in them if I knew gametime decision Tyrann Mathieu was going to play, after missing last week with a shoulder injury.

Arizona Cardinals 20 Minnesota Vikings 16 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Arizona +2

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs: 2016 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 11 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-2)

Much is being made of the fact that the Chiefs have won 17 of their last 19 regular season games, winning their final 10 regular season games in 2015 and starting this season 7-2. That’s impressive, but the Chiefs have won their last 2 games despite just scoring one offensive touchdown. That’s also impressive, but it’s very unsustainable. They’ve managed just 28 first downs over those 2 games, but have won both games (by just 5 and 3 points respectively) largely as a result of a +5 turnover margin and a +1 return touchdown margin.

That’s largely been the case all season, as they’ve had the best turnover margin in the league (+14) and have also have a +4 return touchdown margin. Unfortunately for them, turnovers tend to be very inconsistent week-to-week and very tough for a team to rely on. Despite their great turnover margin and the 5th easiest schedule in the NFL thus far, just 3 of their 7 wins have come by more than a touchdown. On the season, they rank just 25th in first down rate differential, suggesting that if we assume turnover neutral football for them going forward, they’re going to have far less success in the win/loss column.

The Chiefs also enter this game missing significant players on both sides of the ball. While top pass rusher Justin Houston will make his debut this week after off-season knee surgery, he’s not expected to play anywhere near a full set of snaps. The Chiefs are also still missing defensive end Jaye Howard, wide receiver Jeremy Maclin, and will likely be without top cornerback Marcus Peters this week. Given all of their injuries, how close many of their wins have been, and the fact that they’ve scored just one offensive touchdown in 2 weeks, they have no business laying 7 points here at home against the Buccaneers.

The only reason I can’t be confident in Tampa Bay is because they’re in a very tough spot here. They’re coming off of a home upset victory over the Bears and then have to turn around and face the Seahawks next week, a game in which they’re expected to be 6.5 point home underdogs. Teams are 38-90 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 4.5 or more, as huge upcoming home games tend to serve as a distraction for a team. Furthermore, underdogs of 6 or more are 48-76 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs of 6 or more. On top of that, teams are 59-79 ATS off of a home victory as underdogs since 2012. Sandwiched in between a huge home win and a very tough home game, the Buccaneers might not be fully focused for a non-conference opponent this week. That being said, the Chiefs’ offense has struggled so much this season that the Buccaneers could still cover the 7 even if they don’t play their best game. This isn’t a money play, but that could change if the line moves to 7.5 by the morning.

Kansas City Chiefs 20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +7

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions: 2016 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 11 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Lions, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7) at Detroit Lions (5-4)

After a busy off-season in which the Jaguars had among the most cap space in the NFL and spent accordingly, the Jaguars entered the season with high expectations and have had an incredibly disappointing season, falling to 2-7 last week with loss to the Houston Texans. Their last 2 losses have been especially painful, as they lost by 5 in Kansas City despite losing the turnover battle by 4 and then they last week they lost at home to the Texans by just 3 despite losing the turnover battle by 2. They’ve held the Chiefs and Texans to a combined 26 first downs and have accumulated 48 first downs of their own, but couldn’t win either game because of turnovers.

That’s been the case all season, as they rank 9th in first down rate differential, but have just 2 wins because of a league worst -14 turnover margin. Fortunately, turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. For example, teams that have a -4 turnover differential in a game on average, have a +0.1 turnover margin the following week. Aside from turnovers, they’ve actually played pretty well this season and if we assume turnover neutral football going forward, they figure to have better luck winning some of these close games (4 losses by 5 points or fewer) and should win more games going forward, including possibly this game against the Lions.

Despite the fact that they’ve only had 3 losses by more than 5 points this season even with all of their turnover problems, the Jaguars are underdogs of 6.5 points at home this week in Detroit, far too many considering the Jaguars are significantly better than their record. The Lions, meanwhile, are not quite as good as their record suggests, as they enter this game 22nd in first down rate differential. All 9 of their games have been close and most could have gone either way; their biggest win came by 6 points in overtime against the Vikings. Given that, I’m not sure why they’re expected to win by at least a touchdown against the Jaguars.

The Lions are also in a tough spot as they have to turn around and play again next week on Thursday Night Football, their annual Thanksgiving home game. Favorites are 50-82 ATS before playing on Thursday Night Football since 2008. The Lions have never been good before these Thanksgiving games anyway, going 6-10 ATS since 2001 the week before Thanksgiving. The Jaguars, meanwhile, go to Buffalo next week. The early line has them as at least 6 point underdogs in that game, like they are here, and underdogs of 6 or more are 48-76 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs of 6 or more. However, they don’t deserve to be underdogs of that many in either game. If they have a strong performance this week, perhaps the line will shift under 6 next week. If not, I will probably be taking the Jaguars again next week. They’re one of the most underrated teams in the league because people don’t realize they’ve played well other than turnovers and a smart pick here at 6.5.

Detroit Lions 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 23

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +6.5

Confidence: High

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks: 2016 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 11 NFL Picks, Eagles, NFL Picks, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (5-4) at Seattle Seahawks (6-2-1)

The Seahawks pulled a big upset last week, winning as 8 point underdogs in New England. Considering how well the Seahawks have played in the 2nd half of the season in recent years, that big upset shouldn’t have come as a big surprise. The Seahawks have always done very well in the second half of the regular season in the Pete Carroll era (since 2011), going 31-9-1 ATS in games 9-16 since Carroll arrived. This has been very noticeable on the stat sheet for Russell Wilson, as he’s completed 66% of his passes for an average of 8.7 YPA, 66 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions in the second half of the regular season in his career.

Considering how well this organization is run from top to bottom, it doesn’t surprise me they get better as the season goes on. It also wouldn’t surprise me at all if they went on another second half run. Safety Kam Chancellor has returned to the lineup, while quarterback Russell Wilson is much healthier after playing through early season injuries. The Seahawks also get running back Thomas Rawls back from injury this week. He’ll split touches out of the backfield with last week’s breakout star, rookie 3rd round pick CJ Prosise.

They’re also in a great spot here with only a trip to Tampa Bay on deck. The early line has them as 6.5 point road favorites. Favorites of 6 or more are 89-50 ATS since 2012 before being favorites of 6 or more again. With no distractions on the horizon, the Seahawks should be able to be completely focused for an inferior opponent this week. The Eagles aren’t a bad team, but the line isn’t that high either (6.5). The Seahawks could be about to go on another late season run, so I have confidence that they’ll win by at least a touchdown.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Philadelphia Eagles 13

Pick against the spread: Seattle -6.5

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts: 2016 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 11 NFL Picks, Colts, NFL Picks, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (5-5) at Indianapolis Colts (4-5)

The Titans pulled off a huge home upset victory over the Green Bay Packers last week, which shifted this line from 4 in favor of the host Indianapolis Colts on the early line last week down to 3 this week, a significant shift considering about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. Typically, I like to fade significant line movements because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play and I also tend to fade teams coming off of home upset victories, as teams are just 59-79 ATS off of a home victory as underdogs since 2012. However, the Titans have been at the top of my underrated teams list pretty much all season and I think even after last week’s statement victory they remain underrated. Most seem to be attributing Tennessee’s win to Green Bay not being good anymore, but it’s Tennessee’s rise, not Green Bay’s supposed fall that should be the story from that game.

Despite 5-5 record, the Titans enter this game 3rd in first down rate differential. They’ve been competitive in every game and have a +13 point differential on the season, despite being -7 in return touchdown differential. Aside from those 7 plays, they have a +61 point differential (which would be 4th best in the NFL). They have 33 offensive touchdowns on the season, as opposed to 21 allowed by their defense, a +12 differential that is best in the NFL. This line still suggests these two teams are even, but that’s far from the case.

Part of that is because the Colts are overrated. People remember them beating the Packers in Green Bay before their bye, but that was largely because of long returns on special teams. The Packers lost the first down rate battle by 9.50% against the Titans, but won by 5.20% against the Colts. Prior to that, the Colts were blown out at home 31-13 by a Chiefs team that has scored just one offensive touchdown in 2 games since. On the season, despite a few wins, the Colts rank just 29th in first down rate differential, thanks to a defense that is allowing the highest first down rate in the league. Outside of special teams, this hasn’t been a good Indianapolis team this season.

Prior to the Chiefs game, the Colts did beat the Titans 34-26 in Tennessee, but the Titans have still been a lot better on the season. Also, that loss puts the Titans in a good spot here, as divisional road underdogs are 60-32 ATS since 2002 in same season divisional revenge games against an opponent that previously beat them as home favorites. Comparable teams tend to split the season series, even if the road team pulls the upset in the first game. These teams aren’t even comparable, so the Titans should have a great chance of evening the season series. It’s also worth keeping in mind that the Titans don’t really have much of a homefield advantage, so the fact that this is a road game for them isn’t that big of a deal. Since 2010, the Titans have been outscored by 5 points per game on the road and 3 points per game at home, suggesting their homefield advantage has been worth about a point over that time period.

The Titans are also in a much better spot than the Colts because the Colts have to turn around and play Pittsburgh on Thursday Night on Thanksgiving, while the Titans go to Chicago to take on a Bears team that’s been one of the worst in the league this year. The Titans figure to be completely focused to take down an opponent that has caused them a lot of trouble in recent years, while the Colts could get caught looking forward to a tough Thursday Night game. The early line has them as 3 point home underdogs against the Steelers, while the Titans are favored by a point in Chicago. Favorites are 50-82 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football, while underdogs are 92-60 ATS since 2012 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. If the Colts aren’t focused, they’re going to have a very tough time defeating a team that has significantly outplayed them this season. This is not only my Pick of the Week, but also one of my favorite picks all year.

Tennessee Titans 27 Indianapolis Colts 20 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers: 2016 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 11 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Panthers, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (4-5) at Carolina Panthers (3-6)

The Panthers lost last week by a field goal at home, their 4th loss this season by 3 points or fewer. This loss was particularly heartbreaking for them as they led 17-0 early, but blew the lead and ended up losing 20-17 on the strength of a return touchdown and a late takeaway in Carolina territory that set up the winning field goal. Even though they won the game, the Chiefs actually didn’t score a single offensive touchdown all game and lost the first down battle 22-18. As you can imagine given all of their close loss, the Panthers have played better overall than their record suggests, as they rank 14th in first down rate differential. It’s a far cry from their 2015 team, but they could easily be 5-4 or 6-3 right now if a couple things had gone their way.

The problem for them this week is the Saints are also better than their record. The Saints enter this game at 4-5, but 3 of those losses came by 3 points or fewer, including a heartbreaker last week in which the Saints’ go-ahead extra point was blocked and returned for a game winning 2-point conversion by the Broncos’ defense. The Saints enter this game 8th in first down rate differential, a few spots higher than the Panthers, and also have a better point differential (-5 vs. +2). At 3.5 in favor of the host Carolina Panthers, this line suggests the Panthers are a slightly better team than the Saints, but I think it’s the other way around.

At the very least, these two teams are even, so this line shouldn’t be any higher than a field goal. The difference between 3 and 3.5 might not seem like much, but considering 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, it’s a pretty big half point. The Saints are also in a better spot, as they host the lowly Rams next week, while the Panthers have to travel to face Oakland. Underdogs are 91-59 ATS since 2012 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. Even if the Panthers win, this game figures to be close, so I’d put money on the Saints at 3.5. At +3, it’s probably worth buying the half point.

Carolina Panthers 24 New Orleans Saints 23

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +3.5

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 10 NFL Picks, Eagles, Falcons, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (6-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-4)

The Falcons are 6-3 and one of the better teams in the league this season thanks primarily to a high flying offense that leads the NFL with a first down or touchdown on a whopping 43.26% of snaps, including 50% in back-to-back games against the Packers and Buccaneers coming into this game. No other offense is even close, as the 2nd place Cowboys have a first down rate of 41.74% and the 3rd place Saints are at 40.63%. The defense hasn’t been nearly as good, allowing the 4th highest first down rate in the NFL, but their offense has been good enough to compensate, so they rank 4th in first down rate differential entering this one.

The Falcons offense will probably have to play at a very high level once again this week, as the Falcons’ defense is without cornerback Desmond Trufant, arguably their best defensive player and certainly their best defensive back. Without him, an already weak defense gets even worse. The Eagles are not a great team and have fallen back to earth after a 3-0 start and sit here at 4-4, but they’re not bad either. They enter this game 16th in first down rate differential. I’m not confident either way in this game, but the Eagles are the pick as 1.5 point home underdogs against the Falcons without Trufant.

Atlanta Falcons 24 Philadelphia Eagles 23

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +1.5

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 10 NFL Picks, Jets, NFL Picks, Rams, Uncategorized

Los Angeles Rams (3-5) at New York Jets (3-6)

These are two of the worst teams in the league so I’m not going to spend much time on this pick. The Rams are a slightly better team, as they rank 30th in first down rate differential, as opposed to 31st for the Jets, but we’re not really getting line value with them as mere 1.5 point underdogs. The Jets are in a tough spot, looking forward to a bye as small favorites; Home favorites of 1 to 5.5 points are just 30-58 ATS before a regular season bye since 2002. It’s a no confidence pick, but I’m taking the Rams.

New York Jets 17 Los Angeles Rams 16

Pick against the spread: Los Angeles +1.5

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 10 NFL Picks, Chargers, Dolphins, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (4-4) at San Diego Chargers (4-5)

The Chargers have been one of the most banged up teams in the league in each of the last two seasons. This season, the Chargers have been missing wide receiver Steve Johnson, running back Danny Woodhead, wide receiver Keenan Allen, middle linebacker Manti Te’o, and cornerback Jason Verrett for most, if not all of the season thus far. Joining them this week will be starting middle linebackers Denzel Perryman and Jatavis Brown and starting wide receiver Travis Benjamin.

The Chargers are going into a bye, which is good news from an injury standpoint, as it gives them time to get their players back, but it’s also bad news because it puts them in a bad spot this week. Home favorites of 1 to 5.5 points are just 30-58 ATS before a regular season bye since 2002, as teams tend to get caught looking forward to their week off in this spot. The Chargers are 4.5 point favorites, so they fall right in the range. That’s also too many points, given the Chargers’ injury situation and the fact that the Dolphins are a quality opponent. The Dolphins are 12th in first down rate differential, just a few spots behind the Chargers, who enter this game in 8th. Even banged up and in a bad spot, the Chargers will probably win this game, but 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer, so the Dolphins are the right pick if we’re getting 4.5 with them. There’s not enough for me to put money on them though.

San Diego Chargers 23 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against the spread: Miami +4.5

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 10 NFL Picks, Commanders, NFL Picks, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (5-3) at Washington Redskins (4-3-1)

When the Vikings were 5-0 on the strength of a +11 turnover margin and a +4 return touchdown margin, two things that tend to be unsustainable, I thought they were the most overrated team in the league. Since then, they’ve lost all 3 games, all in upset fashion, against the Eagles, Bears, and Lions. Over those 3 games, they were +1 in turnover margin and -1 in return touchdown margin, which made a huge difference and exposed one of the most stagnant offenses in the league. They have a great defense, but they’ll never be anything more than an average team unless they can move the ball consistently. In their 3 losses, they scored just 36 points, which could be a sign of things to come.

However, now after those 3 losses, the Vikings aren’t really overrated anymore. In fact, the 4-3-1 Redskins are a little bit more overrated, as they enter this game 26th in first down rate differential, as opposed to 19th for the Vikings. That’s largely thanks to a defense that ranks 30th in first down rate allowed. Their offense ranks 6th in first down rate, but, overall, but they’ve been a mediocre team at best this season. Their only win by more than a touchdown came at home against the Browns, a game in which they didn’t even play that well, allowing 26 first downs. We’re not getting great line value or anything with the Vikings as mere 2.5 point road underdogs in Washington, but they’re the pick in pick ‘em pools.

Washington Redskins 20 Minnesota Vikings 19

Pick against the spread: Minnesota +2.5

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]