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Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (2-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5)

The Bears are just 2-6, but things are not that bad for them right now. Despite a rash of injuries, the Bears were better than their record suggested in the first 8 games of the season and enter this game 20th in first down rate differential. They also enter this game as healthy as they’ve been all season coming off of their bye, with nose tackle Eddie Goldman, left guard Josh Sitton, and right guard Kyle Long, 3 key trench players, all returning this week. Prior to the bye, the Bears got back players like middle linebacker Danny Trevathan, outside linebacker Pernell McPhee, and quarterback Jay Cutler back from injury. With the players they currently have healthy, the Bears are not a bad team.

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are not as good. They enter this game just 27th in first down rate differential, despite not having as many injuries as the Bears. They’ve also lacked any sort of homefield advantage in recent years, going just 18-39 ATS at home since 2009. The problem is this line is at 2.5 in favor of the visiting Bears, so we’re not really getting any line value with them. They’re still the right side here in pick ‘em pools as long as the line is under 3, but this is a no confidence pick.

Chicago Bears 23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against the spread: Chicago -2.5

Confidence: None

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Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) at Carolina Panthers (3-5)

Ordinarily, I love fading significant week-to-week line movements, as they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. This line has moved from 2.5 in favor of the Panthers on the early line last week to 3 this week, which doesn’t seem like a huge line movement, but it is when you consider that 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. This time though, the line movement is legitimate, as the Chiefs will be without top receiver Jeremy Maclin and starting defensive end Jaye Howard with injury.

In fact, I think we’re still getting good line value with the Panthers, who are the better of these two teams, despite their records. This line suggests these two teams are even, but the Panthers rank 14th in first down rate differential, while the Chiefs rank 24th. Three of the Panthers five losses have come by 3 points or fewer, so they are legitimately a few plays away from being 5-3 or even 6-2 like the Chiefs. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are 6-2 with the help of a 3-0 record in games decided by a touchdown or less and a league leading +12 turnover margin, two things that tend to be unsustainable long-term. There’s not enough for me to put money on the Panthers at 3, especially since the Panthers are hosting the Saints in 4 days on Thursday Night Football (favorites are 50-80 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football), but I would consider it if this line dropped to 2.5.

Carolina Panthers 24 Kansas City Chiefs 19

Pick against the spread: Carolina -3

Confidence: Low

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San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (1-7) at Arizona Cardinals (3-4-1)

The Cardinals have been one of the most underrated teams in the league this season. I didn’t bet heavily on them in their last game as 3 point underdogs in Carolina because they were coming off of a 5-quarter tie (which is usually a tough situation) and because Carolina was also underrated. I was hoping the Panthers would beat the Cardinals so we could get even better value with the Cardinals coming out of their bye in week 10. The Panthers did beat the Cardinals, 30-20, but the Cardinals also lost left tackle Jared Veldheer and cornerback Tyrann Mathieu for an extended period of time with injuries in that game. Those two are critical players for this team. On top of that, they’re still 13.5 point home favorites here because their opponents, the 49ers, have been so terrible this season, so we’re not really getting good line value with the Cardinals either, especially when you take into account their injury situation.

That being said, I’m still taking the Cardinals here. Despite their 3-4-1 record, they rank 6th in point differential and 1st in first down rate differential. Their losses to New England and Los Angeles were both very close, while their tie to Seattle could have been a win if one of a number of different things had gone their way. They have won the first down battle in 7 of 8 games and are legitimately a few plays away from being 6-2 right now, after finishing 13-3 and in first place in first down rate differential in 2015. Their offense isn’t what it was last season, but their defense has been even better. Their special teams have been problematic, but, even without Veldheer and Mathieu, this is still one of the best teams in the league.

The 49ers, meanwhile, have lost their last 7 straight by an AVERAGE of 17.29 points per game, so all of a sudden this line at 13.5 doesn’t seem so high. Just two of their losses came by fewer than two touchdowns. One of those 2 losses by less than two touchdowns was a 12 point home loss to these Cardinals week 5, even though the Cardinals were starting backup Drew Stanton in place of injured starting quarterback Carson Palmer. With Palmer back, the Cardinals should be able to win big here at home.

The Cardinals are in a tough spot as they have to turn around and play a much tougher Minnesota team next week, a game that could have significant playoff and playoff seeding implications. The Cardinals will almost definitely be road underdogs in Minnesota next week and favorites of 10 or more are just 54-73 ATS since 2002 before being underdogs, as teams can overlook significantly inferior opponents with a tough game on deck. That being said, the 49ers are also in a tough spot as they have to turn around and host the Patriots next week, a game in which they’re whopping 14.5 point home underdogs on the early line. That could be a major distraction for the 49ers. Underdogs of 10 or more are 48-79 ATS since 1989 before being underdogs of 10 or more again, while teams are 37-89 ATS since 2012 before being 4.5+ point home underdogs. There’s not quite enough here for me to be confident in putting money on the Cardinals as home favorites of this many points, but they should be the right side.

Arizona Cardinals 27 San Francisco 49ers 10

Pick against the spread: Arizona -13.5

Confidence: Low

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Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (7-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-4)

The Cowboys enter this game with the best record in the NFC at 7-1 and rank 2nd in the NFL in first down rate differential. They’ve had a relatively easy schedule thus far, as they rank dead last in strength of schedule, in terms of total opponents’ records, but the Steelers are not nearly as tough of an opponent as this line suggests. This line is at 3 in favor of the home team Pittsburgh Steelers, suggesting these two teams are essentially even, which I disagree with. The Steelers enter this game just 22nd in first down rate differential.

Part of that has been injuries/suspensions, as Pro-Bowl guys like quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, running back Le’Veon Bell, defensive end Cameron Heyward have all missed time, but the Steelers also just aren’t as good as they’ve been in recent years. Outside of Bell and Antonio Brown, they’re hurting for skill position talent without Martavis Bryant and Heath Miller, while their defense is subpar even when Heyward is healthy. Even with a relatively easy schedule thus far, the Steelers are far from the toughest game the Cowboys have had thus far, as they’ve played the likes of the Giants, Redskins, Packers, Eagles, and Bengals, all of whom are comparable to or better than the Steelers. The Cowboys are 4-1 in those 5 games.

Not only are the Cowboys significantly better, they’re also a great road team, as a result of their national fanbase. Since 2010, they’ve outscored opponents by 0.96 points per game at home and been outscored by 0.08 points per game on the road, meaning their homefield advantage hasn’t even been worth a point over that time period. They are also 21-12 ATS as road underdogs over that time period. The Steelers are in a good spot with an easy trip to Cleveland on deck and teams are 48-34 ATS since 2008 before being road favorites of 4.5 or more, which the Steelers definitely will be, so this isn’t a huge play, but there’s enough here for me to be confident in the Cowboys at 3 in Pittsburgh.

Dallas Cowboys 24 Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: Dallas +3

Confidence: Medium

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Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (5-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6)

The Texans are 5-3, but rank just 25th in first down rate percentage. That’s because their 5 wins have come by a combined 33 points, while their 3 losses have come by a combined 63 points. Their -30 point differential is also just 25th in the NFL. All 5 of their wins came at home against average or worst opponents, with none coming by more than a touchdown. Their 3 losses, meanwhile, came in their 3 road games and were all blowouts. The Jaguars are not the Vikings, Patriots, or Broncos, the Texans’ 3 road opponents to date, but that doesn’t mean this game will be easy for them, given that they’ve struggled for most of the season.

Looking at Jacksonville’s 2-6 record, you’d think they’ve struggled for most of the season as well, and they have played very poorly at times, but much of their struggles have been the result of a league worst -12 turnover differential. Last week, they likely would have beaten the Chiefs in Kansas City if not for a -4 turnover differential. Despite that -4 differential, it was still just a 5 point game, as the Jaguars won the first down battle 25 to 10. Turnover differentials tend to be very inconsistent from week-to-week. For example, teams that have a -4 turnover differential in a game like the Jaguars did last week, on average, have a +0.1 turnover margin the following week and cover at a 53.2% rate as a result.

The Jaguars actually enter this game 10th in first down rate differential. Outside of those 12 plays, they really haven’t been bad this season and if they play just turnover neutral football going forward they figure to win significantly more games in their final 8 games than their first 8 games. On paper, they have a reasonable roster and are relatively healthy right now. These two teams are at least even so the Jaguars should be at least field goal favorites at home here, meaning we’re getting a decent amount of line value with the Jaguars as mere 1 point home favorites. The Jaguars are worth a bet.

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 Houston Texans 16

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville -1

Confidence: Medium

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Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (3-4-1) at New York Giants (5-3)

This is a line I legitimately don’t understand. As a result of injuries and off-season losses, the Bengals are not the same team they were last season. They enter this game 15th in first down rate differential, a little better than 3-4-1 their record suggests, but average at best. The Giants, meanwhile, are 5-3 despite a -7 turnover margin and their 3rd toughest schedule in the league thus far, in terms of opponent win/loss record. They rank 9th in first down rate differential and have been a noticeably better team than the Bengals this season, but despite that they are 1 point home underdogs here for this Monday Night Football game. The Giants are missing top offensive lineman Justin Pugh with injury, but this we’re getting at least 5 points of line value with the Giants (I’d have the Bengals at +4), so the Giants are the easy choice here.

New York Giants 24 Cincinnati Bengals 20 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +1

Confidence: Medium

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Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (4-4) at Tennessee Titans (4-5)

The Titans may be just 4-5, but they actually rank 7th in the NFL in first down rate differential. They’ve been competitive in every game and have a -9 point differential on the season, despite being -7 in return touchdown differential. Aside from those 7 plays, they have a +39 point differential (which would be 6th best in the NFL) and have quietly played very solid football this season. They have 10 more first downs than their opponents on the season and, in offensive touchdowns, they have a +9 advantage (27 to 18).

The Packers are also better than their record, as their 3 of their losses have come by a combined 9 points and were all very winnable games. They could easily be 6-2 or 7-1 right now and rank 5th in first down rate differential. However, because the Packers are the Packers and the Titans are the Titans, the odds makers have underrated the Titans, but not the Packers here, even though these two teams actually have very similar records. The Packers are favored by a field goal here in Tennessee, so we’re getting great line value with the hosts. These two teams are much more even than people realize. About 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal and 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less, so the Titans at 3 are my Pick of the Week this week.

Tennessee Titans 23 Green Bay Packers 20 Upset Pick +140

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (5-2-1) at New England Patriots (7-1)

Despite a strong 5-2-1 record, the Seahawks have been underwhelming through their first 8 games of the season. Their tie would have been a loss if not for a number of fluky special teams mistakes by the Cardinals, while their only 2 wins by more than 6 points have come against the Jets and 49ers, two of the worst teams in the league. Despite having the 3rd easiest schedule in the league thus far, in terms of opponents’ record, the Seahawks rank just 11th in first down rate differential.

There are reasons to be optimistic for the Seahawks though. For one, they get safety Kam Chancellor back from injury, who they really missed during his 4-game absence. Defensive end Michael Bennett remains out, a huge absence, but at least Chancellor returns to a defense that has still played well despite players missing time. Their offense has been where they’ve had problems, thanks largely to a weak offensive line and a banged up Russell Wilson. However, they looked as good offensively last week as they did all season, as Wilson gets closer to 100%.

The Seahawks have always done very well in the second half of the regular season in the Pete Carroll era (since 2011), going 30-9-1 ATS in games 9-16 since Carroll arrived. This has been very noticeable on the stat sheet for Russell Wilson, as he’s completed 65.9% of his passes for an average of 8.69 YPA, 63 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions in the second half of the regular season in his career. Considering how well this organization is run from top to bottom, it doesn’t surprise me they get better as the season goes on. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if they went on another second half run.

Despite that, they are 8 point underdogs here in New England. For context, the Seahawks have lost just 2 games in Russell Wilson’s career by more than 8 points, including playoffs, a stretch of 82 games total. Those 2 losses were by 9 points and 10 points, so they weren’t exactly blown out in those games either. The public seems to expect a New England beatdown of the Seahawks, as most of the money is on the favorite this week, but the public is often wrong and always loses money in the long run. This figures to be a close game.

The Patriots are probably the best team in the league right now, given that they are basically completely healthy, but they have also played a very easy schedule, the 2nd easiest in the league in terms of win/loss record. They are in a good spot coming off of a bye, with an easy trip to San Francisco on deck after this one. Touchdown favorites are 56-30 ATS since 2012 before being touchdown favorites again, which the Patriots definitely will be next week against the lowly 49ers. At the same time, this is also a tough spot for them, as it’s a night game against a west coast team. Because of how human sleep cycles work, teams that are used to the western time zone have a major advantage at night against teams used to the eastern time zone, covering about 2/3rds of the time. I thought about making this my Pick of the Week and there’s enough here for me to be confident in the Seahawks as underdogs of 7 or more.

New England Patriots 24 Seattle Seahawks 20

Pick against the spread: Seattle +8

Confidence: High

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Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (6-3) at New Orleans Saints (4-4)

This line has shifted significantly in the past week, as the Broncos were favored by a point on the early line, but are now 3 point road favorites in New Orleans. It’s a somewhat understandable line movement. The Saints have won 4 of 5 after a 0-3 start, including a 41-23 victory in San Francisco last week, while the Broncos have lost 3 of 5 since a 4-0 start, including a 30-20 loss in Oakland last week. On top of that, the Saints got back key defenders Delvin Breaux and Sheldon Rankins from injury last week, while the Broncos are without key defenders Derek Wolfe and Aqib Talib this week.

That being said, that’s still a very large line movement, as about 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer, and I’m not sure it’s completely warranted. This line suggests these two teams are about even, which I don’t think is quite true. The Broncos enter this game still in 6th in first down rate differential, while the Saints enter in 13th. Injury situations aside, the Broncos are still the better team right now. The Broncos are also in a much better spot, as the Saints have to turn around and go to Carolina next week on Thursday Night Football. Favorites are 50-80 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football.

The Broncos, meanwhile, are in a great spot in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 135-103 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 107-71 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 227-244 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.86 points per game, as opposed to 326-456 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.02 points per game. The Broncos are worth a bet if you can get the full field goal. The moneyline is also a good bet, as this game is a toss up at worst for the visiting Broncos.

Denver Broncos 24 New Orleans Saints 23 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Denver +3

Confidence: Medium

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Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (0-9) at Baltimore Ravens (4-4)

The Browns are arguably the worst team in the league and certainly one of the worst two or three teams, but this line is way too high at 10. The Ravens are a solid squad, but have the worst offense in the league in terms of first down percentage. Their defense has been great, entering this game with the 2nd lowest first down percentage allowed in the NFL, but they only rank 18th in first down percentage differential, despite the 4th easiest schedule in the league in terms of opponent’s winning percentage. The Browns have a very weak defense, but it’s still going to be very tough for the Ravens to cover the 10, as limited as they are offensively. In fact, their last win by more than 10 points came in week 14 of 2014. And that’s despite the fact that they’ve played the Browns 4 times since then.

The Ravens are also in a horrible spot, playing an inferior team on a short week after a huge home upset victory over the Steelers last week, with a tough trip to Dallas on deck, a game in which they figure to be at least 6 point underdogs on the early line. Favorites of 6 or more are 23-52 ATS since 2008 before being 6 point underdogs and favorites of 10 or more are 54-73 ATS since 2002 before being underdogs of any amount. On top of that, teams are 58-78 ATS since 2012 off of a home upset victory like the Ravens’ win over the Steelers last week.

The Browns aren’t exactly in an easy spot either, as they have to turn around and face the Steelers at home, a game in which they figure to be huge home underdogs. Teams are 37-88 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 4.5 or more, as big upcoming home games like that tend to be a big distraction for teams. However, that has not been the case historically with winless teams this late in the season, as teams that are 0-7 or worse are 17-8 ATS before being huge home underdogs since 1989. Believe it or not, betting on winless teams this late in the season has actually been a winning bet in the past, as teams that are 0-7 or worse are 53-25 ATS since 1989. Winless teams understandably tend to be undervalued and I think that’s the case in this game. The Browns have kept 4 of their 9 losses within single digits and I like their chances of doing so this week against a Baltimore team that has had major issues moving the ball this season.

Baltimore Ravens 17 Cleveland Browns 12

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +10

Confidence: High

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