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2013 Head Coaches Likely to be Fired

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Likely to be fired

Mike Munchak (Tennessee)

Mike Munchak’s name has been on the hot seat for a while in Tennessee, with many believing he’d be fired last off-season. He was kept around, predictably as he had only finished his 2nd season with the team, but this time around he might not be so lucky. Munchak has a 21-26 record in 3 seasons and has failed to take the team to the playoffs. This year, the Titans are 6-9, heading into a week 17 home finale against the Texans. Owner Bud Adams, who hired Munchak, has died so the team is going to be under new leadership and the new leadership could easily let Munchak go in an attempt to get the team unstuck out of the mud.

Rex Ryan (NY Jets)

Rex Ryan reportedly told his team before their week 16 win over Cleveland that he was getting fired after the season. Reports have refuted that, but still no one would be surprised if Ryan was let go. Ryan and injured reserve quarterback Mark Sanchez are the only real holdovers from that era and with new GM John Idzik in charge, there’s been an expectation for the past year or so that this would be the end of Ryan’s tenure in New York, which saw him go 41-38 (pending week 17), make two NFC Championships, but fail to make the playoffs in each of his final 3 seasons. Now fired former GM Mike Tannenbaum was more to blame for that and I actually don’t agree with letting Ryan go, after he led this bunch to a 7-8 record with his strong defense, but right now it seems inevitable. Rex Ryan and Jim Schwartz are the longest tenured NFL head coaches without division titles. In today’s NFL, that likely means you’re gone.

Mike Shanahan (Washington)

This is where it gets messy. There’s no doubt right now owner Dan Snyder wishes Mike Shanahan was gone, after a 24-39 tenure that saw him make the playoffs just once. Shanahan might not even want to be there, after he reportedly thought about resigning last January because he hated working with Snyder, only to be stopped by RG3’s torn ACL and the bad personal PR that would have come with resigning after that. However, Shanahan wants to get his 7 million dollars in 2014 salary and he wouldn’t get that by resigning this off-season, while Snyder doesn’t want to fire him because he’d have to pay him that. You have to think eventually Shanahan will be gone, but it might be messy.

Dennis Allen (Oakland)

Dennis Allen’s record in 2 seasons with the Raiders isn’t that good, as he’s 8-23, but he’s only in his 2nd year and he’s been put into a near impossible situation with a team devoid of talent and in salary cap hell, so I wouldn’t agree with him being let go just yet. However, it doesn’t sound like Mark Davis’ apple has fallen far from his dad’s tree and, now that he’s in charge, he may be just as impatient with head coaches as father Al Davis. Allen’s requests to have his assistants signed to extensions have already been denied by Mark Davis, which is never a good sign.

Jim Schwartz (Detroit)

A couple of weeks ago, it was reported that Jim Schwartz needed to make the playoffs to save his job. After being eliminated from the playoffs last week at home to the 6-9 Giants, it would be hard to see Schwartz being kept. The Lions were 6-3, looking at a schedule that featured just one likely playoff team (Philadelphia) over their final 7 games, but now they sit at 7-8 and already on the outside looking in. I have no idea how he keeps his job after that. The Lions are a talented team, but they are consistently plagued by things like losing close games, committing turnovers, and allowing return touchdowns, things that are supposed to be inconsistent. At the end of the day, they need new leadership. They have the talent to be a 12-4 team, but they’ll probably never get there under Schwartz. Schwartz is 29-50 in 5 seasons, with one playoff berth and no division titles.

Borderline

Jason Garrett (Dallas)

There have been conflicting reports on whether or not Jason Garrett is coaching for his job in this week’s NFC East play-in game. Certainly, Garrett being fired after a 29-27 tenure with no playoff appearances in Dallas would be no surprise. However, Romo’s injury might have saved Garrett’s job as it would allow him to deflect blame for a potential week 17 loss to Philadelphia, which would eliminate them from playoff contention. I could see this one going either way.

Greg Schiano (Tampa Bay)

There was a time earlier this season when Schiano seemed like the most likely head coach in the NFL to be canned, after the Buccaneers 0-8 start, which was filled with numerous reports about the players dislike of Schiano’s coaching style. However, now the Buccaneers are 4-11, including some impressive wins, such as double digit wins over Tampa Bay and Atlanta and upset wins over a Miami team that will likely make the playoffs and a Detroit team that was still playing well at the time. Of their losses, most have been close and they’ve fought all along. That could be enough to save Schiano’s job, especially since this is only his 2nd season. He has an 11-20 record thus far.

Leslie Frazier (Minnesota)

Leslie Frazier led the upstart Vikings to a 10-6 record last season and looked like a coach of the year candidate, after they went 3-13 the year before. The Vikings predictably picked up his option for 2014, but this is the NFL and now they may be regretting that, as the Vikings are 4-10-1. Frazier is now 20-32-1 as head coach of the Vikings and the Vikings can get out of their mistake of picking up his option by letting him go this off-season. At the same time, it wouldn’t surprise me if they kept him around for his contract year.

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Washington Redskins at New York Giants: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 17 NFL Picks, Commanders, Giants, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (3-10) at New York Giants (6-9)

The Giants went into Detroit and beat the Lions last week, while the Redskins lost at home to the Cowboys. Surely the Giants will win at home here against the Redskins and cover this small spread right? Well, that seems to be what the public thinks as they are all over the Giants as mere 4 point favorites. However, this is the NFL. Things can change from a week to week basis very quickly and the odds makers always win in the long run.

The Giants are in a bad spot coming off such an emotional overtime win over the Lions last week. Teams are 24-41 ATS since 2002 as home favorites off of a win by 1-3 points as road underdogs of 3 or more, which makes sense, as teams can be overconfident and overvalued in those situations and suffer a hangover effect. We have seen this line shift from 3 to 4 in the past week, which is something.

As for the Redskins, they’re actually in a good spot after last week’s loss. Teams on a losing streak of 6 or more are 42-24 ATS since 2002 off of a loss by a touchdown or less. Teams on long losing streaks tend to be undervalued because no one wants to bet on them, but some teams on long losing streaks are teams that quit. This isolates out those teams because, if they recently played a close game, they’re probably still fighting. The Redskins covered in this spot last week, losing by a mere point as 3 point home underdogs. They’re still fighting hard, in spite of this lost season, because the players are trying to impress any future coaching staff they may have, or any future team that might have interest in them in free agency.

Besides, while the Giants won last week as road underdogs, a situation they historically do well in since 2004, when Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin first came to town, now they are home favorites, a situation they have not done well in since 2004, especially late in the season. While they are 35-20 ATS as road underdogs since 2004, they are 8-16 ATS as home favorites of 3.5 or more in week 9 or later over that time period. Last week, they had no pressure and were able to take advantage of a choking Detroit team, but now the pressure and the expectations are back on the Giants as significant home favorites. They usually are the ones who choke in that situation.

Home struggles aren’t exclusive just to the Giants. The NFC East in general seems to struggle at home and play well on the road, at least in recent years. They are 79-113 ATS at home since 2008, as opposed to 107-89 ATS on the road. As you can expect, in divisional games, the road team generally has the advantage in the NFC East and that’s true, as the home team is 45-27 ATS in NFC East games since 2008, including 17-32 ATS as home favorites. Given that, the fact that the Redskins almost pulled off the home win last week is actually pretty impressive and I give them a good chance to pull off the road upset here this week. This trend worked against the Redskins the last time these two teams met in week 13, when the Redskins lost a tough one as 1 point home favorites.

Going off of that game, another trend favors the Redskins. Teams who lose as divisional home favorites are 48-23 ATS since 2002 as road dogs in the same season, regular season rematch. It makes sense. Matchups where the team who is favored is dependent on the location tend to be matchups between very even teams and very even teams tend to split the season series no matter what. If you’ve lost as home favorites, you have to win as road underdogs in this situation to split the season series. Teams in this situation do win as road underdogs at a .500 rate since 2002 (39-39) and an even higher percentage, as previously mentioned, about 2/3rds, cover the spread. The Redskins have room to play with here because they are 4 point underdogs so they can cover even if they don’t win.

It might not seem like it, but in spite of their respective records (Giants are 6-9 and the Redskins are 3-10) and what happened last week, these teams are actually very comparable and even. In fact, in terms of rate of moving the chains differential, the Redskins actually rank higher. They move the chains at a 71.34% rate, as opposed to 75.88% for their opponents, a differential of -4.54%, which ranks 26th in the NFL. 26th isn’t anything to write home about, but it’s still better than the Giants, who come in 28th. They move the chains at a 65.70% rate, as opposed to 71.46% for their opponents, a differential of -5.76%.

Now, I don’t think the Redskins are better than the Giants as that suggests. Rate of moving the chains differential doesn’t take into account special teams, intentionally as people tend to put too much value into something that is such a small percentage of the plays in a game and so tough to be sustainable good at. However, the Redskins have proven this season that they are sustainable bad at special teams, which is why New York is probably better, but it’s not by a lot. At the very least, this line, which suggests the Giants are a point better than Washington, is accurate and, of course, that’s before we get into the Giants home struggles, the home struggles of the NFC East as a whole, and the individual situations these two teams are in.

The only reason this isn’t a bigger play on Washington is because neither of these two teams has anything to play for in terms of playoffs. Ordinarily, I don’t like betting on games in which both teams have been eliminated from the playoffs, because you never know what their individual motivations are. Sure, they’re probably going to continue trying because the majority of the individual players are playing for their jobs and salaries in 2014, but you can never be sure. However, there’s still enough here for me to be somewhat confident in the Redskins, especially since the Redskins don’t have their own first round pick and don’t have anything to “tank” for. They should be the right side.

Washington Redskins 24 New York Giants 23 Upset Pick +160

Pick against spread: Washington +4

Confidence: Medium

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San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 17 NFL Picks, 49ers, Cardinals, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (11-4) at Arizona Cardinals (10-5)

The Cardinals proved themselves last week to be a very good football team, going into Seattle, where no one has won in two years, and winning despite losing the turnover battle by 2. Teams rarely are able to overcome a -2 turnover margin, winning just about 17.7% of the time. Winning despite losing the turnover battle by 2 is hard; winning as double digit underdogs despite losing the turnover battle by 2 is even harder. In fact, that was just the 5th time a team had done that since 1989, rising the winning percentage of double digit underdogs who lose the turnover battle by 2 to 4.0%.

It wasn’t just last week. The Cardinals are doing a very impressive job on the season. They are moving the chains at a solid 71.22% rate, while their strong defense is allowing opponents to move the chains at a 68.37% rate, a differential of 2.86% that ranks 11th in the NFL. They’re a comparable football team to their opponents here, the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers rank a little higher, coming in at 8th, moving the chains at a 70.70% rate, as opposed to 67.20% for their opponents, a differential of 3.50%. However, these are definitely comparable teams. In spite of that, the Cardinals are 1.5 point home underdogs here. Rate of moving the chains differential suggests this line should be closer to 2 in favor of Arizona, so we’re getting some significant line value here.

That doesn’t even take into account that Arizona is a much better home team than road team. Arizona has been money at home this season, going 6-1, as opposed to 4-4 on the road. It’s not just their record. It’s how much they’re winning by and who they are beating. They are outscoring opponents by 10.57 points per game at home, which includes that home loss, which came against Seattle. Their average margin of victory is 14.33 points per game. In that 6-1 record is two wins by double digits over likely division winners Indianapolis and Carolina (by a combined 45 points) and a win over a Detroit team week 2 that was much better to start the season than to end the season.

This home dominance is nothing new. Since 2006, they are 42-25 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.37 points per game. On the road, they are 22-44 over that time period, getting outscored by 6.12 points per game. Given that, I don’t think the normal 3 points for home field advantage is appropriate for this team. On top of that, when they are underdogs or small home favorites (2.5 or less), they’ve essentially been an auto-bet over that time period, going 29-12 ATS. Whenever they just need to win to cover a spread at home, they usually get the job done and that’s the case here. Now that they have arguably their best team of that time period (remember, even in their NFC Championship year in 2008, they went 9-7 in the regular season), they are an incredibly tough team to beat at home, as I demonstrated earlier.

The 49ers haven’t done a good job this season against tough opponents. Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers have both been incredible this season against bad teams, teams that are currently .500 or worse, going 9-0 in those games, winning by an average of 18.56 points per game. Colin Kaepernick has completed 137 of 216 (63.4%) for 1965 yards (9.10 YPA), 14 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while rushing for 303 yards and 4 touchdowns on 52 carries.

However, against teams that are currently better than .500, they are just 2-4, with both wins coming at home. In those games, Colin Kaepernick is 85 of 166 (51.2%) for 922 yards (5.55 YPA), 5 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, while rushing for 197 yards and no touchdowns on 36 carries. The Cardinals’ tough defense is even tougher at home and could easily give Kaepernick a lot of trouble. Defensive coordinator Todd Bowles is doing a terrific job this season and will have a great game plan to confuse Kaepernick and he has the personnel to execute it, led by Calais Campbell, Karlos Dansby, Daryl Washington, and Patrick Peterson, all of whom are playing at a Pro-Bowl caliber level.

The one concern and the reason why this isn’t a bigger play: teams are 36-56 ATS since 1989 off of a win as road underdogs of 10 or more. It makes sense. Pulling off a huge upset like that tends to make teams overvalued and overconfident and they can experience a hangover effect when they fall back to earth the next week. However, there are two things that nullify that to an extent here. One, I don’t think the Cardinals are overvalued here. As I illustrated earlier, I actually think the Cardinals are undervalued, in spite of last week’s huge win.

On top of that, for whatever reason, the line moved from a pick ‘em to 1.5 in favor of San Francisco over the past week, despite Arizona’s big win. We didn’t lose line value. In fact, just the opposite happened. Two, the Cardinals absolutely need this win to stay alive in the playoff race so that could nullify some of their overconfidence and the potential hangover effect. It’s still a concern, which is why it isn’t a bigger play, but there’s enough here for me to be pretty confident in Arizona.

Arizona Cardinals 17 San Francisco 49ers 10 Upset Pick +105

Pick against spread: Arizona +1.5

Confidence: Medium

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New York Jets at Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 17 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Jets, Uncategorized

New York Jets (7-8) at Miami Dolphins (8-7)

One powerful trend is that teams who lose as divisional home favorites are 48-23 ATS since 2002 as road dogs in the same season, regular season rematch. It makes sense. Matchups where the team who is favored is dependent on the location tend to be matchups between very even teams and very even teams tend to split the season series no matter what. If you’ve lost as home favorites, you have to win as road underdogs in this situation to split the season series. Teams in this situation do win as road underdogs at a .500 rate since 2002 (39-39) and an even higher percentage, as previously mentioned, about 2/3rds, cover the spread. The Jets have room to play with here because they are 7 point underdogs so they can easily cover even if they don’t win.

These two teams might not seem to be even teams because the Dolphins are favored by a whole touchdown and because the Jets were just favored by one point in New York a few weeks ago and got blown out, but they are pretty even, much more than this line would suggest. We’re getting line value with the Jets. The Dolphins are not as good as their 8-7 record would suggest. The complete goose egg they laid in Buffalo last week is just evidence of that.

They rank 25th in rate of moving the chains differential, largely because of an incompetent offense, which moves the chains at a 66.74% rate, which is one of the worst in the NFL. Their porous offensive line is a big part of the reason why and the Jets have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL because of the trio of Damon Harrison, Sheldon Richardson, and Muhammad Wilkerson, all of whom are playing like Pro-Bowlers. They have the potential to take over this game.

The Dolphins defense is much better than their offense, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 70.46% rate, but that’s still a differential of -3.72%, which, again, ranks 25th in the NFL. The Jets are 27th. Their offense obviously struggles, moving the chains at a 64.90% rate, but their defense is much better as they allow their opponents to move the chains at a 69.75% rate, a differential of -4.86%. That suggests this line should be around 4, instead of 7. Given that, the Jets definitely seem like the right side.

However, the Jets do tend to struggle on the road and off of a win. The Jets have been very bad off of a win over the past 2 seasons, going 3-9 ATS in that situation since the start of the 2012 season. They haven’t handled success well. On top of that, Geno Smith has been horrible on the road this season. He hasn’t been good anywhere. However, his road numbers are some of the worst you’ll ever see for a guy who kept his starting job all season.

He’s completed 55.2% of his passes for an average of 6.55 yards per attempt, 5 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. Even that’s skewed by a 3 touchdown, no interception performance in Atlanta. In his other 5 road games, he has 2 touchdown, and 13 interceptions. As a result, the Jets have lost those 5 games by an average of 19.5 points per game, while the win in Atlanta came by just 2. I’m still taking the points, especially since the Dolphins have just 2 wins by more than a touchdown, but I’m not that confident.

Miami Dolphins 17 New York Jets 13

Pick against spread: NY Jets +7

Confidence: Low

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St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 17 NFL Picks, Rams, Seahawks, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (7-8) at Seattle Seahawks (12-3)

The Seahawks need this win to clinch the #1 seed and home field advantage through to the Super Bowl. The Seahawks lost at home last week, for the first time since week 16 of the 2011 and the first time in Russell Wilson’s career, snapping a perfect 14-0 start. However, that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t still be an auto-bet at home. Nothing is going to work every time, but betting on the Seahawks blindly at home has been very lucrative in the past, actually dating back several seasons.

Since 2007, they are 38-18 ATS at home, including 22-10 ATS as home favorites, and 11-4 ATS as home favorites of 7 or more. They have been especially good over the past two years, as they’ve broken out as an elite team, going 11-4 ATS since the start of the 2012 season. They are outscoring opponents by an average of 16.87 points per game at home since the start of last season. One loss doesn’t change that.

What one loss does do is give us some line value with the Seahawks. The Seahawks were 10 point home favorites for the Cardinals last week and it seemed completely reasonable at the time given the Seahawks home dominance. Now they are just 10 point home favorites against a St. Louis team that lost by 20 in Arizona and that is without left tackle Jake Long with a torn ACL? Why? Because they lost one game? The Seahawks have been very good off of a loss recently anyway, going 15-9 ATS off of a loss since Pete Carroll took over in 2010 and 5-2 ATS off of a loss since Russell Wilson became the starting quarterback in 2012. That makes sense considering elite head coach/quarterback duos usually dominate off of a loss.

How much line value are we getting with the Seahawks? Well, they move the chains at a 72.28% rate, as opposed to 66.82% for their opponents, a differential of 5.46%, which ranks 6th in the NFL. The Rams, meanwhile, come in at 23rd, moving the chains at a 70.07% rate, as opposed to 73.44% for their opponents, a differential of -3.37%. That suggests this line should be around 12, before you even get into the Seahawks’ home dominance and the absence of Jake Long. I have a lot of confidence in the Seahawks this week.

Seattle Seahawks 27 St. Louis Rams 6

Pick against spread: Seattle -10

Confidence: High

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 17 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Saints, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-11) at New Orleans Saints (10-5)

This game is very important to the Saints. If they lose here, they can be knocked out of the playoffs entirely if the Cardinals lose to the 49ers. Also, if the Panthers somehow lose earlier in the day, the Saints can get a first round bye with a win here. Sean Payton has already said the Saints will be approaching this game like a playoff game and that’s very reasonable. This game doesn’t mean anything for the Buccaneers, but their players will be playing for future contracts and the like so they’ll probably put a lot into this one as well, especially because they would love a chance to eliminate a division rival.

In spite of that, I still really like the Saints. Their recent 2 game road trip did not go well for them as they lost as big favorites in St. Louis and then lost on a late drive to the Panthers in Carolina, losing the division lead in the process. However, now they are back at home, where they are essentially an auto-bet. As long as Sean Payton is on the sideline and Drew Brees is under center, the Saints are 30-10 ATS at home since 2008 and they are 15-0-1 ATS at home over their last 16 home games with Drew Brees and Sean Payton. They’ve won all 16 of those games by an average of about 20.5 points per game, with just three being decided by 10 points or less and just one being decided by less than 6 points. Given that, getting the Saints as 13 point favorites here at home over the lowly Buccaneers is stealing.

I have a 13-1 ATS record picking Saints games this season and I would be 13-0-1 ATS if I had gotten New Orleans -3 against the 49ers a few weeks ago, which is where the line ended, instead of -3.5, where I got it. I’ve done that by betting them blindly at home and almost always going against them on the road. The only time I didn’t was when they were mere 1 point favorites in Chicago early this season, when the Bears were overrated. That’s their only road cover of the season as they are 1-6 ATS on the road, but, again, now they are back home.

It also helps the Saints that they are coming off of a loss as they are 17-5 ATS off of a loss since 2008 as long as Sean Payton is on the sideline and Drew Brees is under center. They were unable to come through in this situation last week, but they still almost beat a very tough Carolina team on the road, despite their road struggles. They definitely play better off of a loss. Besides, last week was a road game and now they are back home, where they are 12-2 ATS off of a loss since 2008 with Sean Payton, including 10-0 ATS off of a road loss.

Even before you take into account the Saints’ home dominance and how well they play off of a loss, we’re getting line value with the Saints. They rank 3rd in the NFL in terms of rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 76.51% rate, as opposed to 68.84% for their opponents, a differential of 7.67%. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, rank 29th in the NFL in terms of rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 66.11% rate, as opposed to 72.16% for their opponents, a differential of -6.05%. That suggests this line should be around 16.5, instead of 12.5, again even before we take into account the Saints home dominance and how well they play off of a loss.

They only thing the Buccaneers have working for them is that they are road underdogs off of a road loss, a situation teams are 101-64 ATS in since 2008. Teams cover at roughly that rate in that situation historically as well, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample size. It’s not a new thing. However, I don’t think that’s going to protect them from getting blown out. I have a lot of confidence in the Saints.

New Orleans Saints 34 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

Pick against spread: New Orleans -13

Confidence: High

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Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 17 NFL Picks, Bengals, Ravens, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (8-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (10-5)

This game is very important for both teams. For Baltimore, a win and a loss by either San Diego or Miami puts them in the playoffs, but if they lose they need San Diego, Miami, and Pittsburgh to all lose. For Cincinnati, they need a win to keep them in the #3 seed. If they lose, Indianapolis can move up with a win over the lowly Jaguars and Cincinnati would be in the #4 seed and have to face Kansas City in the first round. A win for Cincinnati also keeps them alive for a first round bye, should New England lose at home to the Buffalo earlier in the day.

Given that this game means equally much for both teams, I really like Cincinnati at lot. They’ve been a dominant home team this season, not just winning all 7 of their home games, one of three home teams to have done so, but also covering in all 7 of their home games, the only team in the league to have done so. Not only that, their margin of victory in those 7 games has been 17.71 points per game. That includes wins over New England, Indianapolis, and the Aaron Rodgers led Packers. Only one of their home games was within a touchdown (Green Bay). The fact that we’re getting the Bengals as mere 5.5 point home favorites over the Ravens is a gift.

Even before we take into account the Bengals’ home dominance, we’re getting line value here. The Bengals are a legitimately dangerous team. They are actually better than their 10-5 record, with the 6th best point differential in the NFL and they’re doing that despite being pretty average in turnover margin (+2). In terms of rate of moving the chains differential, they rank 4th, moving the chains at a 73.54% rate, as opposed to 66.36% for their opponents, a differential of 7.18%.

The Ravens are a solid football team, certainly better than the final score last week against New England would have suggested, but we’re still getting line value with the Bengals. The Ravens are moving the chains at a mere 66.01% rate, with their defense keeping them afloat, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 65.47% rate, a differential of 0.54%, which ranks 14th in the NFL. That suggests this line should be around 9.5, instead of 5.5, again even before we take into account the Bengals’ home dominance.

This line shifted from 3.5 to 5.5 over the past week, which is a significant line movement, but this line never should have been at 3.5 in the first place. That was a huge overreaction to the Bengals’ loss in Pittsburgh, which should not have been seen as a surprise because they aren’t nearly the same team on the road this season. Besides, Joe Flacco’s knee injury may be a significant concern. It certainly seemed to be bothering him in the loss in New England, as he was noticeably limping and completed 22 of 38 for 260 yards and 2 interceptions, much of which came in garbage time.

It’s also worth noting that the Ravens aren’t usually a good road team. Since 2008, the first season of the Joe Flacco/John Harbaugh era, the Ravens outscore opponents by an average of 10.10 points per game, as opposed to 1.28 points per game on the road. That’s not unique to the Flacco/Harbaugh era, as they get outscored by an average of 0.95 points per game on the road since 2002, while they outscore opponents by 7.98 points per game at home. I don’t think you can use the usual 3 point adjustment for home field in their games.

The only thing Baltimore has going for them is they usually play well after getting blown out in the Jim Harbaugh/Joe Flacco era, going 8-1 ATS after a double digit loss since 2008. They usually don’t get blown out twice in a row. However, there’s just so much going in Cincinnati’s favor that this is my Pick of the Week, in a week where there aren’t a lot of good side to be confident in, because of the nature of week 17.

Cincinnati Bengals 24 Baltimore Ravens 10

Pick against spread: Cincinnati -5.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 17

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 17 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams). Below that, I use this to calculate spreads for this week’s games (by taking the differences between the differentials of the two teams and adding 3 points either way for homefield). It’s not a perfect formula, but it does a good job of lessening the value of inconsistent things like turnovers and return touchdowns.

Offense

Team First downs Touchdowns Punts Turnovers Failed 4th downs Field goal attempts
1 Denver 407 67 62 26 1 24 80.75%
2 San Diego 354 38 51 20 1 35 78.56%
3 New Orleans 338 43 57 19 9 32 76.51%
4 Chicago 327 41 64 21 5 29 75.56%
5 Carolina 303 36 64 17 3 27 75.33%
6 Philadelphia 334 48 77 18 6 27 74.90%
7 Green Bay 326 39 62 23 4 35 74.64%
8 Dallas 304 43 74 17 1 27 74.46%
9 Detroit 336 43 65 34 9 22 74.46%
10 New England 354 41 74 19 8 37 74.11%
11 Atlanta 310 35 63 27 8 25 73.72%
12 Cincinnati 309 44 72 26 9 20 73.54%
13 Seattle 287 39 68 19 5 33 72.28%
14 Tennessee 294 37 72 24 6 26 72.11%
15 Pittsburgh 295 35 71 22 6 30 71.90%
16 Indianapolis 295 35 71 14 7 37 71.90%
17 Kansas City 301 38 83 18 6 26 71.82%
18 Washington 317 34 75 30 12 24 71.34%
19 Arizona 310 34 75 29 3 32 71.22%
20 San Francisco 267 37 73 18 3 32 70.70%
21 Minnesota 290 39 69 30 9 30 70.45%
22 St. Louis 271 31 71 19 12 27 70.07%
23 Cleveland 286 29 80 27 14 26 68.18%
24 Oakland 258 31 79 30 4 29 67.05%
25 Houston 288 25 83 27 11 34 66.88%
26 Miami 260 31 80 23 8 34 66.74%
27 Tampa Bay 251 26 82 20 12 28 66.11%
28 Buffalo 282 29 92 27 7 34 66.03%
29 Baltimore 278 25 84 26 8 38 66.01%
30 NY Giants 266 27 83 41 6 23 65.70%
31 NY Jets 258 23 83 29 7 33 64.90%
32 Jacksonville 252 22 90 25 15 24 64.02%

 

Defense

Team First Downs Touchdowns Punts Turnovers Failed 4th downs Field goal attempts
1 Baltimore 263 29 95 20 6 33 65.47%
2 Cincinnati 265 27 83 28 9 28 66.36%
3 Seattle 271 19 74 37 7 26 66.82%
4 Buffalo 284 35 91 29 6 32 66.88%
5 Carolina 258 19 67 29 8 32 67.07%
6 San Francisco 265 28 82 28 12 21 67.20%
7 Kansas City 284 31 82 35 9 26 67.45%
8 Detroit 271 32 78 20 3 40 68.24%
9 Arizona 290 32 82 30 9 28 68.37%
10 New Orleans 256 29 78 18 6 27 68.84%
11 Houston 265 39 85 10 5 32 69.72%
12 NY Jets 275 34 75 12 10 37 69.75%
13 Miami 305 29 72 24 7 37 70.46%
14 New England 319 34 76 29 14 25 71.03%
15 Pittsburgh 288 38 74 18 8 31 71.33%
16 NY Giants 315 33 77 25 9 28 71.46%
17 Cleveland 311 40 84 19 5 30 71.78%
18 Indianapolis 300 34 70 25 7 29 71.83%
19 Denver 322 42 82 25 10 25 71.94%
20 Tennessee 310 35 71 21 4 38 72.03%
21 Tampa Bay 303 34 62 31 5 32 72.16%
22 Philadelphia 347 35 71 28 11 29 73.32%
23 St. Louis 317 37 68 29 7 24 73.44%
24 Oakland 302 44 71 22 4 26 73.77%
25 Green Bay 313 42 65 20 7 30 74.42%
26 San Diego 305 34 60 17 6 28 75.33%
27 Atlanta 310 43 56 19 4 35 75.59%
28 Jacksonville 330 46 70 21 3 26 75.81%
29 Washington 315 50 66 23 5 22 75.88%
30 Minnesota 354 50 70 20 7 27 76.52%
31 Chicago 328 44 56 26 4 28 76.54%
32 Dallas 367 47 56 27 8 28 77.67%

 

Differential

Team
1 Denver 8.81%
2 Carolina 8.26%
3 New Orleans 7.67%
4 Cincinnati 7.18%
5 Detroit 6.22%
6 Seattle 5.46%
7 Kansas City 4.37%
8 San Francisco 3.50%
9 San Diego 3.22%
10 New England 3.08%
11 Arizona 2.86%
12 Philadelphia 1.58%
13 Pittsburgh 0.56%
14 Baltimore 0.54%
15 Green Bay 0.22%
16 Tennessee 0.09%
17 Indianapolis 0.07%
18 Buffalo -0.85%
19 Chicago -0.98%
20 Atlanta -1.87%
21 Houston -2.84%
22 Dallas -3.21%
23 St. Louis -3.37%
24 Cleveland -3.60%
25 Miami -3.72%
26 Washington -4.54%
27 NY Jets -4.86%
28 NY Giants -5.76%
29 Tampa Bay -6.05%
30 Minnesota -6.07%
31 Oakland -6.72%
32 Jacksonville -11.79%

 

Projected Week 17 Lines

NE/BUF 6.93
MIA/NYJ 4.13
PIT/CLE 7.16
CIN/BAL 9.64
IND/JAC 14.86
TEN/HOU 5.93
SD/KC 1.85
DEN/OAK 12.53
PHI/DAL 1.79
NYG/WAS 1.78
CHI/GB 1.80
DET/MIN 9.28
NO/TB 16.72
CAR/ATL 7.13
SEA/STL 11.84
ARZ/SF 2.36

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2013 Week 16 NFL Pick Results

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 17 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Week 16

Straight Up: 12-4

Against the Spread: 8-8

Pick of the Week: 1-0

High Confidence: 1-0

Medium Confidence: 2-4

Low Confidence: 2-2

No Confidence: 2-2

Upset Picks: 3-1

2013

Straight Up: 161-78-1 (.674)

Against the Spread: 139-94-7 (.597)

Pick of the Week: 9-6-1

High Confidence: 22-8

Medium Confidence: 31-23

Low Confidence: 38-24-2

No Confidence: 39-33-4

Upset Picks: 27-25

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2014 Head Coaching Candidates

stevenlourie News, Uncategorized

Jay Gruden

Cincinnati OC, Age 47 in 2014

Gruden has done a fantastic job in Cincinnati getting the most out of Andy Dalton as their offensive coordinator, since taking over in 2011. He’s drawn the respect of the rest of the league and has been considered for head coaching jobs in the past, but has maintained a stance that he’s not ready to be an NFL head coach. Maybe this year he’ll have interest.

Greg Roman

San Francisco OC, Age 42 in 2014

Greg Roman is another guy that has drawn interest from around the league in terms of him being an NFL head coach and if the 49ers hadn’t made long playoff runs in each of the past two years, he might already have his own team. Teams usually like to have their head coach in place by mid-January, so assistants whose teams are still playing at that point are at a disadvantage. If the 49ers don’t make a long playoff run, Roman will be a hot commodity. He and Jim Harbaugh have been tied at the hip since he took over as Stanford’s offensive coordinator in 2009 and many around the league see him as a Jim Harbaugh-lite.

Darrell Bevell

Seattle OC, Age 44 in 2014

Last season, the Seahawks lost defensive coordinator Gus Bradley to the Jacksonville Jaguars, where the successful defensive coordinator became the new head coach. They could face a similar situation with offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell this season. Bevell was hand-picked by Pete Carroll and has been the Seahawks’ offensive coordinator for each of the past 3 seasons and over the past 2 seasons he’s helped Russell Wilson develop from an overlooked 3rd round pick into one of the best signal callers in the NFL.

Ken Whisenhunt

San Diego OC, Age 52 in 2014

Ken Whisenhunt was Arizona’s head coach from 2007-2012, going 45-51 and making a Super Bowl. When he was fired, it was a little bit of a surprise and he could certainly be seen as a capable head coach by teams around the league this off-season, especially after he redeemed himself in San Diego, doing a masterful job helping turn around the career of Philip Rivers.

Todd Bowles

Arizona DC, Age 51 in 2014

When the Dolphins fired Tony Sparano in 2011, Todd Bowles took over as the interim head coach for the final few games of the season. He’s yet to really be considered for a head coaching job, but that could just be because he’s never had a lot of coordinator experience. However, in his first full season as a defensive coordinator this season, the long-time secondary coach has led one of the best stop units in the NFL in Arizona.

Mike Zimmer

Cincinnati DC, Age 58 in 2014

Mike Zimmer has been Cincinnati’s defensive coordinator since 2008, which is a very long time for someone to stay in one job in the NFL. He’s been very good, especially over the past few seasons as Cincinnati’s defense has been one of the better defenses in the NFL and helped carry the Bengals to 3 straight post-season appearances. Before that, he did a very good job as the defensive coordinator in Dallas from 2000-2006 (with a one year stop in Atlanta in between). He’s gotten some interest in the past as a head coaching candidate, but nothing substantial. Perhaps this is the year he’ll do the rounds in the interview process and possibly end up as a head man. There’s also the possibility he has no desire to move beyond the defensive coordinator position, where he’s been in the NFL for 14 seasons, which is fine because he’s very good at it.

Bob Sutton

Kansas City DC, Age 63 in 2014

Bob Sutton has done a fantastic job as the Chiefs’ defensive coordinator this season and has been in the NFL since 2000, in a variety of capacities with the New York Jets, including defensive coordinator and assistant head coach. He also has experience as a head coach, coaching at the United States Military Academy from 1991-1999. His age could work against him, but he’ll get some looks this off-season.

Vic Fangio

San Francisco DC, Age 56 in 2014

Like San Francisco offensive coordinator Greg Roman, Vic Fangio might have his own team already if the 49ers hadn’t made long playoff runs in each of the past two seasons. Also like Roman, Fangio has been bound at the hip with Jim Harbaugh for a few years, coming over with him from Stanford, where he was the defensive coordinator in 2010. In the NFL, he’s coordinated a defense that has been among the league best in each of the last three years. If the 49ers don’t go on another long playoff run, Fangio could easily be elsewhere as a head coach in 2014.

Art Briles

Baylor HC, Age 59 in 2014

While some of the big name college head coaches like Stanford’s David Shaw and Texas A&M’s Kevin Sumlin probably aren’t going anywhere, we could still see at least one college head coach making the leap to the NFL this season. Art Briles has done a great job turning around Baylor’s football program, taking it from a 3-9 team with a 0-8 record in the Big-12 in 2007 to an 11-1 team with an 8-1 Big-12 record in 2013, producing big seasons from quarterbacks Robert Griffin and Bryce Petty along the way. If Mike Shanahan is not back in Washington next season, Briles would figure to be the favorite to replace him, reuniting with Griffin in DC.

Bill O’Brien

Penn State HC, Age 45 in 2014

Bill O’Brien is another college head coach who could make the leap. O’Brien has an NFL background, being part of the Patriots’ coaching staff from 2007-2011, including offensive coordinator in 2011. As head coach of Penn State, O’Brien has done a fantastic job in a near impossible situation, taking over for Joe Paterno after the Jerry Sandusky scandal, leading them to 8-4 and 7-5 seasons. It’s no secret he’d like to return to the NFL as a head coach if an opportunity presents itself as he’s trying to get the buyout in his contract reduced even further and I think an opportunity will present itself.

Lovie Smith

Ex-Chicago HC, Age 56 in 2014

Lovie Smith is one of just a few head coaches to be fired after a 10+ win season over the past 25 years or so and it was kind of a surprise when he was let go. The Bears’ defense has noticeably missed his leadership this season. Smith was out of the NFL this season, but only because he was collecting a salary from the Bears either way. After a year off, it’s widely assumed he’ll try to come back to the NFL and more likely than not he’ll have a job waiting for him. As head coach of the Chicago Bears, he went 81-63 in 9 seasons and made a Super Bowl.

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