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Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Eagles, Lions, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (7-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-5)

Earlier this year, the Lions won a game despite losing the turnover battle by 4, something that had only happened 19 times prior since 1989. In that game, accumulating 623 yards of offense, as opposed to 268 for the Cowboys, only the 24th time since 1989 that a team won the yardage battle by that much. They again won the yardage battle by that much last week, outgaining the Packers 561 to 126, the 4th time a team had won the yardage battle by that much since 1989. They also won by 30, despite losing the turnover battle, the 15th time a team had done that since 1989. The Lions are now moving the chains at a 78% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents, a differential that is 5th in the NFL. They need to avoid turnovers, but that type of thing can be very inconsistent.

The Eagles, meanwhile, are 19th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 75% rate, as opposed to 76% for their opponents. Obviously, they’re better than that now that Nick Foles is under center. Foles is completing 63.3% of his passes for an average of 9.14 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and no interceptions on the season. They are 6-1 when he leads the team in passing attempts and 1-4 when he doesn’t.

However, they still have defensive problems and Foles has yet to beat a team as talented as Detroit. It’s also worth noting that the Eagles are 7-24 ATS at home since 2010 (11-20 straight up). They’ve only had Foles for 3 of those games, but he’s 1-1-1 ATS. The Eagles are also in a bad spot at home off of back to back home wins. Teams are 32-55 ATS in that spot since 1989. The Lions should be the right side, but I am nervous about going against Foles again. I definitely wish I was getting field goal protection as well.

Detroit Lions 27 Philadelphia Eagles 23 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: Detroit +2.5

Confidence: Low

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Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Falcons, Packers, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (3-9) at Green Bay Packers (5-6-1)

There’s a pretty powerful trend that says when two teams who are about to undergo a scheduling dynamic change (from dog to favorite or favorite to dog) play each other, the dog covers more often than not. The favorite is distracted by their upcoming game as underdogs, while the underdog has no distractions coming up considering they will be favorites next. This game does fit that trend. The Packers are home favorites here and will probably be road underdogs in Dallas next week, while the Falcons will be home favorites for the Redskins. Teams are 54-85 ATS as home favorites before being road underdogs when their opponent will next be home favorites.

However, there’s also a chance that Aaron Rodgers returns next week, in which case the Packers would probably be favored in Dallas next week, which would make that trend irrelevant. Given that, I actually like the Packers this week. They aren’t as bad as they looked last week, when they were playing on a short week after essentially playing 5 quarters of football in a tie the week before. I’m not saying they’re a good team without Rodgers by any means. After all, they played Minnesota to a tie in Green Bay. However, they’re better than they looked last week. They have the most talented quarterback under center since Rodgers went down in Matt Flynn and he has now had more time with the play book. The Packers are well rested after that Thursday game and they should be the right side here. I’m not confident though.

Green Bay Packers 27 Atlanta Falcons 23

Pick against spread: Green Bay -3.5

Confidence: None

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Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Browns, Patriots, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (4-8) at New England Patriots (9-3)

Last week, the Patriots played a team that had recently lost at home to the Jaguars and they got into a dogfight, eventually winning by a field goal. This week, the Patriots once again get a team that just lost to the Jaguars as they face the Browns. Will this also be a close game? Well, it could be. The Patriots haven’t been winning pretty very often this season. Just two of their wins have come by more than 10 points and just three came by more than a touchdown. Considering this line is 10, that’s very relevant. One of their games which they won by more than a touchdown was a ten point home win over Miami that was much closer than the final score.

It’s true the Patriots’ offense is a lot better now than it was at the start of the season. Tom Brady is playing better and he has most of his weapons back, with Rob Gronkowski, Danny Amendola, and Shane Vereen all healthy. However, now their defense has become a problem, as season ending injuries to Jerod Mayo and Vince Wilfork have depleted their run defense as a lingering hip injury has sapped Aqib Talib’s effectiveness on the backend.

They’re moving the chains at a 77% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents. The Browns, meanwhile, as moving the chains at a 69% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents. They aren’t good, but I have this line calculated at 8, so as long as they have the experienced Jason Campbell under center instead of Alex Tanney, I can definitely see them keeping this close and forcing the Patriots into another close game. The Patriots generally haven’t done well as huge home favorites over the past few years, going 5-10 ATS as double digit home favorites since 2009.

However, on the other hand, the Patriots are in a great spot as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites, going to Miami next week. They have absolutely no distractions. Teams are 92-57 ATS in that spot since 2002. Last week, it was the Texans who were in a good spot, a big part of the reason why that game was close. I actually think the Patriots are the right side here because of that trend. I’m not confident at all in laying double digits with them though.

New England Patriots 27 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against spread: New England -10

Confidence: None

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St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (7-5) at St. Louis Rams (5-7)

I’m completely split on this one. On one hand, the Rams are in a great spot as road underdogs off of a road loss, after last week’s loss in San Francisco. Teams are 101-59 ATS in that spot since 2008 and cover at about a 65% rate historically, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample size. Teams seem to grow accustomed to playing away from home and that nullifies some of the negative effects.

However, the Rams have to host the Saints next week so they might not be able to be focused enough to compete here. Teams struggle mightily before being big home underdogs. Teams are 48-86 ATS before being home underdogs of 4 or more since 2010, 31-70 ATS before being home underdogs of 5 or more, 26-59 ATS before being home underdogs of 6 or more, and 13-37 ATS before being home underdogs of 7 or more. The early line is currently at 5 in favor of New Orleans.

We’re also not getting any line value either way as this line is right around where it should be. The Cardinals rank 10th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 73% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents. The Rams, meanwhile, 20th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 72% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents. I have this line calculated at 6, which is exactly where it is. We can’t even fade the public because the public is also split almost completely. Gun to my head, I’m taking the Cardinals because of how fluky some of the Rams’ victories have been this season, but I have no confidence at all.

Arizona Cardinals 17 St. Louis Rams 10

Pick against spread: Arizona -6

Confidence: None

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Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Redskins: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Commanders, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (9-3) at Washington Redskins (3-9)

How can the Chiefs not beat the Redskins by 4 or more right? Well, that seems to be what the public thinks as they are all over the Chiefs favored by 3.5 here. As is often the case with huge public leans, I think the odds makers are set to make a lot of money here. I love fading the public and I think they are flat out wrong here because they aren’t seeing the whole picture.

This line suggests that the Redskins would be underdogs of about 9.5 points in Kansas City. This is the same team that didn’t cover as 7.5 point home favorites against the Texans and Browns and that was when they still had Justin Houston. They really miss him and their pass rush has suddenly become non-existent. They have 1 sack in the past 3 weeks, after 36 in their first 9 games. As a result, they have allowed 103 points over the past 3 games, after allowing just 111 in their first 9 games combined.

Sure, they’ve faced a very tough batch of offenses in the last 3 weeks, going against Denver twice and San Diego, but you can just as easily point out that they faced a very easy batch of offenses in their first 9 games. Over their last 5 games before the first Denver game, they faced a backup quarterback in 4 of 5 games, including three 3rd string quarterbacks. They beat those three 3rd string quarterbacks by a combined 17 points. They were way too dependent on easy competition, recovering fumbles, winning the turnover battle, and return touchdowns for close wins early in the season. They’ve just been exposed over the past 3 weeks, especially without Justin Houston.

Also, the Redskins don’t have a bad offense at all, moving the chains at a 75% rate. Their biggest issue is their defense, which allows opponents to move the chains at a 78% rate, but we’re still getting line value with them. The Chiefs’ offense moves the ball at just a 73% rate, as opposed to 69% for their opponents. That suggests this line should be around 2 points and that’s before you take schedule into account. In terms of DVOA, the Chiefs have faced the easiest schedule, while the Redskins have faced the 12th hardest.

The Chiefs are also in a bad spot. They put everything they had into that Denver game last week and came up short. They’re essentially locked into the 5th seed no matter what they do. They have a 3 game lead over the 6th seeded Ravens and they are essentially two games back of the Broncos for the division (1 game and tiebreaker) who have an incredibly easy schedule the rest of the way. Teams are 38-51 ATS as road favorites off of a loss as home favorites since 1989.

The Redskins, meanwhile, are in a good spot as home underdogs off of a loss as home underdogs, a situation teams are 65-45 ATS in since 2002. They’re actually in their third straight game as home underdogs. It’s a small sample size obviously, but teams are 8-3 ATS as home underdogs off of back-to-back losses as home underdogs since 2002, 13-6 ATS if you go back to 1989 to get a larger sample size. It would be a bigger play on the Redskins if I trusted they hadn’t mailed in the season, unfamiliar with struggling after what happened last year, but they should get up for this one and as long as we’re getting field goal protection with them, they should be the right side.

Kansas City Chiefs 24 Washington Redskins 23

Pick against spread: Washington +3.5

Confidence: Low

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Oakland Raiders at New York Jets: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Jets, Raiders, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (4-8) at New York Jets (5-7)

The Jets may be 5-7, but they are among the worst teams in the NFL. They have the NFL’s 2nd worst point differential as their 5 wins have come by a combined 19 points, while their 7 losses have come by a combined 140 points. They’ve lost their last 3 games by the combined score of 79-20 and Geno Smith has completed 29 of 74 for 374 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions over his past 4 games, a quarterback rating of 22.0 and might not start the next game, after being pulled for Matt Simms at halftime last week. Their offense is the worst in the NFL, moving the chains at a 65% rate, nullifying their solid defense, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 72% rate, a differential that ranks 31st in the NFL.

They’re also in a bad spot here as they have to go to Carolina next week, where they will almost definitely be double digit underdogs. Teams are 34-71 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. They could just be too distracted here. The Raiders, meanwhile, are in a good spot as road underdogs off of a road loss last week in Dallas. Teams are 101-59 ATS in that spot since 2008 and cover at about a 65% rate historically, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample size. Teams seem to grow accustomed to playing away from home and that nullifies some of the negative effects. It also helps the Raiders that they got extra rest off of a Thursday game last week.

There are four reasons why this isn’t a bigger play on the Raiders. For one, they are a West Coast team playing a 1 PM ET game on the East Coast. Teams tend to struggle in that spot. Two, the Raiders aren’t much better than the Jets. The Jets may rank 31st in rate of moving the chains differential, but the Raiders rank 30th, moving the chains at a 68% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponent. We’re not really getting any line value with them.

Three, the Raiders are a huge public underdog. I love fading the public on heavy leans, especially on heavy leans on the underdog. Any time the public thinks one team is going to pull an upset, it’s definitely a concern. The fourth and final reason is I really like the way the Jets have dealt with the public being against them over the past couple of years. They do a great job bouncing back, going 5-3 ATS off of a loss of 17+ and 5-3 ATS as dogs off of a loss. As long as we’re getting field goal protection with them, the Raiders should still be the right side though.

Oakland Raiders 13 New York Jets 10 Upset Pick +135

Pick against spread: Oakland +3

Confidence: Low

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Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Bills, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-9) at Buffalo Bills (4-8)

The Buccaneers are favored here this week, something that has been a very rare occurrence for them this season. They were kind of favored against the Falcons a few weeks ago, favored by 1 point in some places, with the line being even in some other places and Atlanta being favored by a 1 point or two at the beginning of the week. However, with the exception of that, the last time they were favored was at home for Arizona week 4 and the only other instance was week 1 in New York for the Jets, both non-covers.

This is an obvious sandwich game situation, as the Bills as favorites in between a loss as underdogs before being underdogs again. The Buccaneers lost in Carolina last week and host San Francisco next week. Teams are 76-99 ATS in that spot since 2008. It gets worse for the Buccaneers because teams struggle mightily before being big home underdogs. Teams are 48-86 ATS before being home underdogs of 4 or more since 2010, 31-70 ATS before being home underdogs of 5 or more, 26-59 ATS before being home underdogs of 6 or more, and 13-37 ATS before being home underdogs of 7 or more. The early line is currently at 6 in favor of San Francisco.

The Bills, meanwhile, are in a much better situation with only a trip to Jacksonville on deck. Teams are 54-85 ATS as home favorites before being home underdogs since 2008. The underdog has no distractions to compete with a favorite, who could be distracted. I know the Bills will be road favorites and the Buccaneers will be home favorites, but the same logic should work and it might be an even more powerful situation. There’s just not enough of a sample size with that specific situation as this is just the 10th time it’s happened since 1989 (5-4 ATS). Going off of that, teams are 33-51 ATS before being home underdogs when their opponent will next be road favorites.

The Bills are also the better team. They move the chains at a 69% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponent, which ranks 23rd in the NFL. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are 28th, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76% rate, as opposed to 71% for themselves. It’s not enough that we’re getting significant line value, but it’s definitely worth noting. I wish we were getting field goal protection with the Bills, but they definitely seem like the right side.

Buffalo Bills 20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: Buffalo +2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Steelers, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (6-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-7)

This line suggests that those two teams are even, with Pittsburgh favored by 3 at home, because 3 is the standard adjustment for home field advantage. I don’t think that’s true. The Steelers started the year 0-4 because of serious turnover battle problems (-9), but that kind of thing usually evens out and the Steelers are +5 in turnovers since then. As a result, they are 5-3 since their bye and they played good football in two of their losses and easily could have won (@ Oakland, @ Baltimore).

They are moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents, a differential that ranks 13th in the NFL. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 71% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents, as they’ve had major offensive line problems and their retooled defense has not lived up to expectations. That ranks 21st in the NFL. That suggests this line should be somewhere around 5.5 instead.

The Dolphins are also in a bad spot as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home underdogs, as they head home to face the Patriots next week. Teams are 52-78 ATS in that spot. They’ll probably be too distracted to compete on the road against a superior football team. Going off of that, teams are 60-101 ATS before being home underdogs of 3.5 or more since 2010. Also, fun fact, Dolphins are 17-27 ATS since 1989 before playing the Patriots. It’s not, on its own, a reason to take the Steelers, but it’s worth noting. The Steelers are also rested off of a Thursday night game. I like the Steelers chances here as long as they are only laying a field goal.

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Miami Dolphins 13

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -3

Confidence: Medium

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Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Broncos, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (5-7) at Denver Broncos (10-2)

Peyton Manning’s struggles in the cold are well documented. If you’ve been reading things about this game on the internet or watching ESPN or NFL Network this week, you might have heard this stat: in games where the game-time temperature  was 32 or below, Peyton Manning is 3-7, completing just 59.4% of his passes with 11 touchdowns to 12 interceptions, obviously different numbers than he’s used to. I don’t know if that statistic is as powerful as it seems because he has some strong games in the 33-40 degree range and I don’t think there’s anything magic about the number 32 that makes him terrible, unless he’s secretly a liquid.

However, there’s definitely a trending down of his play as the temperature gets colder, more than the rest of the league’s quarterbacks. Those problems seem to be more pronounced as he’s gotten older and dealt with more injury problems (the loss in New England and the home loss to Baltimore last year are 2 of his 6 losses since coming to Denver) and now he’s going to have to deal with incredibly cold temperatures at home in Denver this week with Tennessee coming to town. The game time temperature for this one is expected to be somewhere around 10 degrees and fall into single digits over the course of the game.

Peyton Manning probably won’t lose the game solely because of the cold, but it’s going to make it very tough for the Broncos to cover this 13 point spread. That spread is ridiculous to begin with. The Titans are a decent football team, which moves the chains at a 73% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents, which ranks 17th in the NFL in terms of differential. They’ve been competitive with both Seattle and Kansas City this year and they don’t deserve to be 13 point underdogs against anyone. I have this line calculated around 8.5 points.

The Broncos have really slowed down since their incredible start offensively. In his first 5 games, Peyton Manning completed 150 of 196 (76.5%) for 1884 yards (9.61 YPA), 20 touchdowns, and 1 interception. However, in his past 7 games, Peyton Manning has completed 177 of 288 (61.4%) for 2241 yards (7.78 YPA), 21 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. His numbers from his past 6 games aren’t bad by any stretch of the imagination, but he’s not otherworldly like he was to start the season. This line is still treating him like he is and not taking the weather into account. In spite of that, the public is still all over the Broncos, which is why the odds makers can inflate the line and still make a lot of money with a Tennessee cover. Fading heavy public leans is always a good idea.

The Titans are also in a good spot here as road underdogs off of a road loss last week in Indianapolis. Teams are 101-59 ATS in that spot since 2008 and cover at about a 65% rate historically, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample size. Teams seem to grow accustomed to playing away from home and that nullifies some of the negative effects. The Broncos, meanwhile, are in a bad spot, as they play on Thursday night next week. They could definitely get caught looking forward to that, especially since the divisional Chargers are coming to town. Favorites generally struggle before a Thursday game because they get caught looking forward, going 28-52 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 12-28 ATS before a divisional Thursday game. I have confidence that the Titans will keep this one closer than 13.

Denver Broncos 27 Tennessee Titans 20

Pick against spread: Tennessee +13

Confidence: Medium

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New York Giants at San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Chargers, Giants, Uncategorized

New York Giants (5-7) at San Diego Chargers (5-7)

The Chargers are in an incredibly tough situation this week because they have to face the Broncos a few days after this one in Denver on Thursday Night Football. That is undoubtedly the biggest game of their season. They’ll obviously not want to overlook the Giants here as they are in the midst of a playoff race, but it might be unavoidable. It’s going to be very, very hard for them to get up for a non-conference opponent they see every 4 years with that game up next.

The Chargers will almost definitely be double digit underdogs in Denver next week. The early line has them has 11 point underdogs and a few weeks ago they were underdogs of a touchdown at home against the Broncos (and failed to cover). Teams generally really struggle before being double digit underdogs because they get caught looking forward to such a big game. Teams are 34-71 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2010.

The fact that this game is on Thursday Night Football doesn’t help matters. Favorites generally struggle before a Thursday game because they get caught looking forward, going 28-52 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 12-28 ATS before a divisional Thursday game. This is a near impossible situation for the Chargers to succeed in. I personally believe the Chargers are a better team than the Giants. The Chargers rank 12th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at an 82% rate, as opposed to 80% for their opponents. The Giants, meanwhile, rank 27th, moving them at a 69% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents.

However, it’s not always about that. We’re getting more than a field goal here, which makes me more willing to take the Giants in spite of my personal opinions about these two teams. The Giants have been playing better football of late as their turnover problem has predictably corrected itself. They’ve won 5 of their last 6 and came close to beating Dallas. Granted none of those teams were very good, but it’s hard to argue the Chargers are significantly better. The Giants are also a dominant road team and have been since the beginning of the Tom Coughlin era in 2004. They are 34-19 ATS as road dogs in that time period. This is my Pick of the Week.

New York Giants 27 San Diego Chargers 20 Upset Pick +150

Pick against spread: NY Giants +3.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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