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2013 Week 11 Fantasy Football Pickups

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football, 2013 Fantasy Football Pickups, Uncategorized

RB Andre Brown (NY Giants)

Percent owned (ESPN): 23.7%

Andre Brown carried the load in a big way in his first game back, rushing for 115 yards and a touchdown on 30 carries. He doesn’t really have any competition for carries and he’s by far their most talented back. He’ll continue being the feature back going forward and he should be owned universally. He’s startable on a weekly basis.

WR Aaron Dobson (New England)

Percent owned (ESPN): 10.5%

The Patriots were on bye this week, so people might have forgotten to pick up Aaron Dobson, but he has a lot of value and upside going forward. Dropson has come a long way. The raw rookie 2nd rounder has shed the Dropson moniker and broken out as the primary outside receiver in a suddenly explosive again New England offense. Fellow rookie Kenbrell Thompkins was a healthy scratch against the Steelers, while Dobson caught 5 passes for 130 yards and 2 touchdowns. He now has 18 catches for 287 yards and 3 touchdowns in the last 4 games and is on pace for 55 catches for 807 yards and 7 touchdowns on the season. He could be worth a start weekly going forward if he and the rest of the Patriots’ offense keep this up and he’s definitely worth picking up.

QB Case Keenum (Houston)

Percent owned (ESPN): 9.0%

The Texans haven’t won a game under him yet, but Case Keenum continues to put up big numbers, throwing for 822 yards and 7 touchdowns in 3 games, while not throwing a single interception. If you have an unsettled quarterback situation, there isn’t a better pickup than Keenum right now. He has an easy schedule going forward and will have borderline QB1 value on a weekly basis.

RB Jonathan Stewart (Carolina)

Percent owned (ESPN): 4.1%

In his 2nd game back, Jonathan Stewart led the Panthers in carries, carrying it for 41 yards on 13 carries. He had a very low YPC because he was facing the 49ers’ loaded defense, but he’ll have easier matchups. He’s averaging 12.5 touches per game in 2 games back and should be in that 12-15 range weekly going forward. He’s worth a bench stash.

RB Brian Leonard (Tampa Bay)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.2%

Doug Martin and now Mike James are both done for the season. Brian Leonard led the way on the ground against the Dolphins after Mike James went down on the first drive and managed 57 rushing yards on 20 carries. He’s a plodder, but he’s a starter and he’ll continue getting 15-20 targets per game. He’s also by far their best 3rd down back. He’s worth a pickup.

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Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 11 NFL Picks, Commanders, Eagles, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (3-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-5)

One of the weirder streaks in the NFL is that the Eagles have lost 10 straight home games, four off of the all-time record. Yes, they haven’t been a very good team over the past 2 seasons, but they also have won 6 of their past 10 road games. Spread wise, they’ve actually failed to cover in 12 straight home games, as opposed to 8-4 ATS in their last 12 road games. Sure, they have Nick Foles now, but even he struggled in his only home start of the season, completing 11 of 29 for 80 yards. Most of his action this season has been on the road, completing 70.8% of his passes for an average of 11.1 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and no interceptions.

At this point, the Eagles’ home struggles are worth noting. At the very least, home field doesn’t provide much of an advantage for them. This doesn’t seem to just be a Philadelphia thing. The NFC East is 41-72 ATS at home since 2010, including 16-26 ATS in divisional matchups, 25-43 ATS if you go back to 2008. For whatever reason, NFC East teams seem to have less home field advantage than most teams, so when they play each other, the road team is much more likely to cover than the home team.

I don’t think this line takes that into account, given that the Eagles are favored by 3.5 points. If the line was taking this into account, this line would suggest that the Eagles are at least 3.5 points better than the Redskins, which isn’t true. In fact, I don’t think there’s much difference between these teams at all. The Eagles are moving the chains at a 76% rate, as opposed to 78% for their opponents. The Redskins, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 78% rate, as opposed to 79% for their opponents. Even before we get into the Eagles’ home struggles, this line is too high. Sure, Nick Foles is an upgrade over Michael Vick, but he’s not proven at home yet.

The Eagles are also in a few bad spots. One bad spot is as home favorites of 3.5 or less before a bye. Since 2002, home favorites of 1-3.5 are 16-39 ATS before a bye, including 2-15 ATS in a divisional matchup. This does make some sense. Small home favorites are generally comparable or slightly inferior to their opponent, which is the case here. Teams in that dynamic might just assume a victory at home going into a bye and completely overlook their opponent, which is not something you should be doing with a comparable opponent. As a result, not only do they rarely cover the spread, but they also lose the game outright more than 2 out of 3 times dating back to 2002. Being in a divisional matchup makes it worse.

The second bad spot the Eagles are in is a revenge game type spot. Teams who lose as divisional home favorites are 50-24 ATS since 2002 as road dogs in the rematch. It makes sense. Matchups where the team who is favored is dependent on the location tend to be matchups between very even teams and very even teams tend to split the season series no matter what. If you’ve lost as home favorites, you have to win as road underdogs in this situation to split the season series. Teams do win as road underdogs at a .500 rate since 2002 (39-38) and an even higher percentage, as previously mentioned, about 2/3rds, cover the spread. The Eagles fell victim to this situation at home to the Giants a few weeks ago.

The Redskins, meanwhile, are in a great spot as road dogs after a road loss. Teams are 97-57 ATS in this spot since 2008 and teams cover at about a 65% rate historically in this spot, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample. This is probably because teams tend to get used to being away from home. The Redskins’ season is essentially on the line here. They will have 10 days to get prepared for the Eagles, following a Thursday Night loss as favorites in Minnesota. They should not only cover, but win here. This is my Pick of the Week.

Washington Redskins 31 Philadelphia Eagles 24 Upset Pick +160

Pick against spread: Washington +3.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#2)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Last week: 1 (-1)

Record: 8-1

The Seahawks move down because I don’t think the Broncos would beat the Rams and the Buccaneers by just a combined 8 points. The Broncos were on a bye so I don’t have a chance to talk about why they are better than the Seahawks so I’ll just do it here. The Broncos rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, behind only Carolina of all teams, while the Seahawks rank 8th. In DVOA, Denver is 1st, while Seattle is 2nd (Carolina is 3rd). In point differential, Denver is 1st, while Seattle is 4th. And Denver hasn’t been reliant on winning the turnover battle, as they are only recovering 37% of fumbles.

Week 9 Studs

QB Russell Wilson

C Max Unger

LE Michael Bennett

DT Tony McDaniel

Week 9 Duds

RG JR Sweezy

LE Red Bryant

FS Earl Thomas

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New Orleans Saints: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#3)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Saints, Uncategorized

Last week: 3 (+0)

Record: 6-2

The Saints aren’t nearly as good on the road, but I don’t envision them losing at home for the rest of the season, against Dallas, San Francisco, Carolina, and Tampa Bay. On the road, they have to go to Carolina and Seattle and could easily lose both. However, with Aaron Rodgers going down for an extended period of time, the Saints don’t have much competition for a first round bye and at least one home playoff game, which would essentially put them in the NFC Championship Game given their home dominance.

Week 10 Studs

DT Brodrick Bunkley

Week 10 Duds

FS Rafael Bush

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New England Patriots: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#4)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Patriots, Uncategorized

Last week: 6 (+2)

Record: 7-2

Last week, I criticized Tom Brady’s play with the caveat that I believed he could turn it around, but that I’d need to see it to believe it. Well I saw it last week. Brady’s passes had so much more life on them and his receiving corps stepped up big time. Aaron Dobson appears to have broken out as a legitimate outside receiver, while Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski both seem to be as good as you can expect them to be. Shane Vereen is expected back after the bye to give Brady a much needed high percentage checkdown target. The defense, despite the absence of Jerod Mayo and Vince Wilfork, is still solid and will get Aqib Talib back after the bye. This is a legitimate contender again if they can keep it up. They’ve have several challenges after the bye, including trips to Carolina and Baltimore, as well as a huge home game against the Broncos which could be for the #1 seed in the AFC.

Week 9 Studs

QB Tom Brady

TE Rob Gronkowski

RE Chandler Jones

LE Rob Ninkovich

Week 9 Duds

LG Logan Mankins

TE Michael Hoomananwanui

CB Alfonzo Dennard

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Indianapolis Colts: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#6)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Colts, Uncategorized

Last week: 7 (+1)

Record: 6-2

Andrew Luck’s struggles against the Texans without Reggie Wayne in a near loss have to be concerning. Luck completed 18 of 40 for 271 yards and 3 touchdowns. He made plays when needed and a lot of the blame falls on his receivers, but it’s a concern. The Colts have to hope it’s not something that continues going forward. Fortunately, their schedule isn’t too bad. Among their final 8 opponents, only Cincinnati and Kansas City are currently above .500, though Arizona and Tennessee (twice) could give them some trouble if they’re not careful.

Week 9 Studs

WR TY Hilton

DT Aubrayo Franklin

MLB Pat Angerer

Week 9 Duds

LG Hugh Thornton

RG Mike McGlynn

MLB Jerrell Freeman

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Kansas City Chiefs: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#7)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Last week: 8 (+1)

Record: 9-0

It’s worth noting that the Bills’ offense led by Jeff Tuel outscored the Chiefs’ offense led by Alex Smith. The Bills won by 10 because of two return touchdowns, but that’s not a sustainable method of offense. Their schedule gets a lot harder from here on out. Their first 9 opponents were a combined 27-49 and they’ve faced 3 straight 3rd string quarterbacks, but their next 7 opponents are a combined 34-23, including Denver twice, San Diego twice, and Indianapolis. Fortunately, they get Denver after a bye and Andy Reid is 14-1 off of a regular season bye, only losing last season on a Philadelphia team that eventually finished 4-12. However, I don’t think Reid has ever had a test as hard as on the road against this caliber of opponent. The early line has Denver favored by 7.5 as the odds makers know the Chiefs aren’t as good as their record. Reid was only an underdog by more than 3 off of a bye once in Philadelphia.

Week 9 Studs

MLB Derrick Johnson

Week 9 Duds

LG Jeff Allen

CB Brandon Flowers

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