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Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: 2016 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 7 NFL Picks, Colts, NFL Picks, Titans, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (2-4) at Tennessee Titans (3-3)

The Titans may be just 3-3, but they actually rank 2nd in the NFL in first down percentage differential. They’ve been competitive in every game and have a -7 point differential on the season, despite being -4 in return touchdown differential. Aside from those 4 plays, they have a +20 point differential and have quietly played very solid football this season. They’ve allowed just 9 touchdowns all season on 63 drives and have 19 more first downs than their opponents. That doesn’t mean the Titans are the 2nd best team in the NFL or anything, but they’re better than their record suggests. Much healthier and more talented than they were in 2015, the Titans run the ball well, have a great offensive line, and play strong defense.

The Colts, meanwhile, have one of the weakest rosters in the NFL outside of the quarterback position. They enter this game 30th in first down percentage differential, only ahead of the Browns and Jets, thanks to a defense that has allowed a league worst 143 first downs. They also enter this game incredible banged up. They’ll be without #2 and #3 wide receiver Donte Moncrief and Phillip Dorsett, starting tight end Dwayne Allen, top offensive lineman Jack Mewhort, and top defensive lineman Henry Anderson. The Titans, meanwhile, are completely healthy. The Colts have the obvious advantage at quarterback, but the Titans have the advantage at every other position. This line is way too low at 3 because this line suggests that these two teams are even and that is not the case.

The Titans are in a bad spot though, as they have to play again in 4 days on Thursday Night Football. Favorites are just 50-77 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008. The Colts are coming off of a road overtime loss, which normally is a bad spot, but they’re lucky because they’re in their second of two road games here. Teams are 132-100 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 104-68 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games and 6-2 ATS in their 2nd of 2 road games off of an overtime loss. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 222-236 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.87 points per game, as opposed to 322-448 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.03 points per game. That being said, even though the Colts are in a better spot, I’m still confident enough in Tennessee at 3 to put money on them.

Tennessee Titans 27 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against the spread: Tennessee -3

Confidence: Medium

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Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: 2016 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 7 NFL Picks, Bengals, Browns, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (0-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-4)

Despite being just 2-4, the Bengals are favored by double digits this week. That’s even rarer than you’d think, as just 4 other teams since 1993 have been favored by double digits despite having a winning percentage of .333 or worse in week 6 or later. Teams are 3-4-1 ATS in that spot since 1989, so the Bengals’ record doesn’t neccessary mean they will fail to cover as favorites of this many points, but whether or not they deserve to be favored by 10 points here at home against the Browns is a major question.

There’s good argument to be made that they do, despite their record. The Browns are one of the worst teams in the league, arguably the worst with all of the injuries they’re dealing with right now. They lost talented left guard Joel Bitonio for the season last week and will be without top cornerback Joe Haden again this week. Meanwhile, top receiver Terrelle Pryor could miss this week’s game, meaning the Browns would be without both week 1 starting wide receivers (Corey Coleman has been out since week 2). The Browns enter this game 31st in first down percentage differential, only ahead of the Jets, and they’re even less talented than the Jets are.

The Bengals, meanwhile, rank just 26th in first down percentage, but they’ve been significantly better than the Browns in that measure, especially given how tough their schedule has been. They’re 2-4 in large part because they’ve played Dallas, New England, Pittsburgh, and Denver, all of whom are division leaders. It’s concerning that they’ve been unable to beat these teams, but I don’t think it’s out of the question that they could beat the Browns by double digits. However, I am going with the Browns, as they’re in a better spot than the Bengals.

The Bengals have a London game on deck and teams understandably struggle before playing an international game, going 8-19 ATS all-time. The Browns, meanwhile, are in their 2nd of two road games, which historically has been an advantage for teams. Teams are 132-100 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 104-68 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 222-236 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.87 points per game, as opposed to 322-448 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.03 points per game. There’s not quite enough here for me to put money on the Browns, but they should be the right side.

Cincinnati Bengals 27 Cleveland Browns 20

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +10

Confidence: Low

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Houston Texans at Denver Broncos: 2016 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 7 NFL Picks, Broncos, NFL Picks, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (4-2) at Denver Broncos (4-2)

I’m torn on this one. On one hand, this line has for some reason gotten higher in favor of Denver in the past week, climbing from 6.5 to 9, even though the Texans won at home against the Colts and the Broncos lost on the road to the Chargers. Nine points is a lot of points to give with a team like Denver whose offense has disappeared in the past 2 weeks, causing the Broncos to drop back-to-back games after an impressive 4-0 start.

Ordinarily, 2 bad games after 4 good ones wouldn’t be a reason for concern, especially considering one of those games was started by a backup quarterback, but the Broncos struggled mightily on offense all last season and needed to pull off a lot of close victories to not just win the Super Bowl, but even get into the playoffs. They won just 3 regular season games by more than 7 points all last season. They’ve already won 3 games by more than 7 points this this season, but their recent offensive skid is cause for concern. Trevor Siemian is an underwhelming talent and inexperienced starter at quarterback and the league may be figuring him out. Their issues go beyond the quarterback position, as their running game and offensive line have really struggled in the past 2 weeks and they lack a capable 3rd receiver in the passing game.

On the other hand, it’s hard to argue that the Broncos are not still a tough opponent, particularly at home, given how good their defense is. The Texans are not as good as their 4-2 record suggests as their 4 wins have come at home by a combined 26 points against the likes of Tennessee, Kansas City, Indianapolis, and Chicago and they’ve gotten crushed in their two road games against tough opponents, losing by 27 in New England (who was playing a 3rd string quarterback) and 18 in Minnesota. They rank just 18th in first down percentage differential and are even less talented than that suggests because they’re without top defender JJ Watt for the season. I’m taking the Texans, but I can’t be confident at all.

Denver Broncos 17 Houston Texans 9

Pick against the spread: Houston +9

Confidence: None

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Los Angeles Rams vs. New York Giants: 2016 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (3-3) vs. New York Giants (3-3) at London

The Rams have fallen back to earth in the last 2 weeks, losing back-to-back games after a surprising 3-1 start. They’re healthier now than they’ve been for a couple weeks, getting defensive ends Robert Quinn and William Hayes back from injury, but they’re still without defensive tackle Michael Brockers and cornerback Trumaine Johnson. They’ll be better defensively with their top-2 pass rushers back, but they’re far from good even with Quinn and Hayes. On the season, they rank 29th in first down percentage differential. Even when they started the season 3-1, they lost the first down percentage battle in all 3 games. Their 3 wins have come by a combined 15 points, but their losses have come by a combined 42, giving them a point differential of -27, 7th worst in the NFL.

The Giants, meanwhile, are better on both sides of the ball and come into this game ranked 6th in first down percentage differential. They’re just 3-3, but that’s pretty impressive considering they’re -10 in turnover margin. Turnover margin tends to be very inconsistent from week-to-week and if the Giants have just an even turnover margin going forward it should be noticeable on the scoreboard. It also helps that the Rams are probably the worst team they’ve played all year, as the Giants have had the toughest strength of schedule of any team thus far this season. This team is better than their record and the schedule is easier moving forward, starting this week. Not only is 3 points is too few, but the favorite also usually covers in these London games, going 9-4 ATS in the last 13, as better teams tend to do a better job of handling a weird situation like this. I like the Giants at 3 and I like them a lot more than 2.5 if you can get it.

New York Giants 24 Los Angeles Rams 17

Pick against the spread: NY Giants -3

Confidence: Medium

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Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins: 2016 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (4-2) at Miami Dolphins (2-4)

One of my favorite things to do as a bettor is go against significant week-to-week line movements. Ordinarily, they’re the result of overreaction to a single week and they create line value in either direction. The line did only move a point from 2 on the early line last week to 3 this week, but, considering about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, that’s a significant movement. In this case, the Bills’ 45-16 trouncing of the lowly 49ers is likely the reason behind the line movement, but the Dolphins had arguably just as impressive, if not more impressive of a week, winning 30-15 at home against a good Steeler team.

The Bills are a better team than the Dolphins, coming into this game in 9th in first down percentage differential, while the Dolphins come in 21st, but I still think we’re getting good value with the Dolphins as field goal home underdogs. Homefield is usually about 3 points, so that suggests the Dolphins would be around 8 or 9 point underdogs in Buffalo, which is what San Francisco was last week. The Dolphins are significantly better than the 49ers. They’re without top safety Reshad Jones with a season ending injury, a huge loss for this secondary, but Buffalo is expected to be without running back LeSean McCoy and remain without top defensive lineman Marcell Dareus. In addition, Miami is going into only their 2nd game of the season with a fully healthy offensive line and it seemed to make a big difference last week.

The Bills are also in an obvious look-ahead situation with a huge divisional game against the Patriots next week. That game could potentially be for the division and would give the Bills their first season sweep of the Patriots in the Tom Brady era. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if the Bills seem less focused and play less than their best this week, especially given how much Rex Ryan is obsessed with trying to beating Bill Belichick. The early line has the Bills as 6 point home underdogs and road favorites are understandably just 16-30 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs. In addition, teams are just 37-85 ATS since 2012 before a home game in which they’ll be underdogs of at least 4.5 points. The only reason this isn’t my Pick of the Week is because the Dolphins are coming off of a home upset victory and teams are 53-76 ATS in that spot since 2012, but I’m still very confident in the Dolphins getting a field goal.

Miami Dolphins 20 Buffalo Bills 17 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Miami +3

Confidence: High

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New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs: 2016 Week 7 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (2-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-2)

The Saints pulled off a big upset win over the Panthers last week, winning 41-38 in a crazy shootout. That’s obviously a huge win, even if the Panthers aren’t what they were last year, but teams tend not to cover off of a big home upset victory, as teams are 53-76 ATS following a home upset victory since 2012. It makes sense that teams would be overconfident and/or overvalued off of a home upset victory. On top of that, the Saints have to turn around and hose the Seahawks next week, another huge home game. The early line has them as 5.5 point home underdogs and teams are just 37-85 ATS since 2012 before a home game in which they’ll be underdogs of at least 4.5 points, which also makes sense. Huge upcoming home games can be a distraction for teams.

The Chiefs are at least a solid opponent as well, ranking 12th in first down percentage differential, but it’s very possible the Saints won’t be focused this week or at least won’t be focused enough to keep it close here against a superior Chiefs team. We’re not really getting much line value with the Chiefs as 6 point favorites and there’s not quite enough for me to put money on this (though that might change if it drops to 5.5), but Kansas City should be the right side here.

Kansas City Chiefs 31 New Orleans Saints 23

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -6

Confidence: Low

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Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles: 2016 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 7 NFL Picks, Eagles, NFL Picks, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (5-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-2)

The 5-0 Vikings are the NFL’s final remaining undefeated team. They’ve been impressive overall, but their offense actually has struggled to move the ball effectively for most of the season. On 310 offensive plays, they have just 87 first downs (fewest in the NFL) and 9 touchdowns (2nd fewest in the NFL), a 30.97% first down percentage, 31st in the NFL. As a result, they rank just 16th in first down percentage differential, despite an outstanding defense that allows the 4th lowest first down percentage.

They’re 5-0 largely because of a +11 turnover margin and a +4 return touchdown margin. That’s very impressive, but it’s also unsustainable. In fact, there’s almost no week-to-week correlation in turnover margins; teams that have strong turnover margins in one week are just as likely to have poor turnover margins the following week as any other team. If the Vikings are going to continue winning, they’re going to have to play better and won’t be able to rely on the turnover margin.

They have a tough test this week on the road in Philadelphia and have a good chance to lose their first game of the season. The Eagles were the best team in the league through the first 3 games of the season, defeating Cleveland, Chicago, and Pittsburgh all by double digits, the only team in the league to win each of their first 3 games by double digits. They’ve since lost 2 straight, but their loss in Detroit came by just one point and it’s very possible they got caught looking forward to this game in last week’s 7 point loss in Washington.

Overall on the season, they still rank 17th in first down percentage differential, just one spot behind the Vikings and they should be much more focused and this week. Last week’s loss in Washington moved this line from Philadelphia being favored by a point on the early line to Philadelphia now being 3 point home underdogs. About 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer, so getting a full field goal is more than it seems. Considering I have these teams about even and the Eagles should probably be favored by a full field goal at home, getting the full field goal with them is a great value.

I love to fade significant week-to-week line movements whenever it makes sense and it makes sense here. Also, despite the line movement, the public is still all over Minnesota and I also love fading the public whenever it makes sense as the public always loses money in the long run. The only reason Philadelphia isn’t my pick of the week is they have another tough game on deck against the Cowboys, while the Vikings have a very easy game in Chicago, meaning they have no real upcoming potential distractions, while the Eagles do. Teams are 81-57 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 4+ and the Vikings are 5.5 point favorites in Chicago on the early line. I still like the Eagles a lot at a field goal though, as a field goal is a good amount of protection at home against a team with an underwhelming offense.

Philadelphia Eagles 17 Minnesota Vikings 16 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +3

Confidence: High

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Washington Redskins at Detroit Lions: 2016 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 7 NFL Picks, Commanders, Lions, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (4-2) at Detroit Lions (3-3)

I have these two teams as more or less equal. They’re also very similar, as both teams have effective offenses, but weak defenses. In terms of first down percentage, Detroit ranks 4th offensively and Washington ranks 5th, but Washington is a few spots higher on the defensive side (25th and 30th) and, as a result, a few spots higher overall (20th vs. 23th). However, the Lions have been without top defensive lineman Ezekiel Ansah for most of the season thus far (limited to 85 snaps in 3 games by injury).

The Lions remain without defensive tackle Haloti Ngata and linebacker DeAndre Levy, two key players on this defense, but Ansah is now in his 2nd game back and could make a big impact on this game, after playing just 32 snaps in his first game back last week. Meanwhile, the Redskins are without tight end Jordan Reed, arguably their best offensive weapon. The Redskins won without Reed last week, but he’s such a good player that it really hurts to not have him out there. Despite that, the Lions are only favored by a point here at home. These two teams are even, so this line should be at least 3 in favor of the host.

On top of that, the Redskins are in a bad spot coming off of last week’s home upset victory over the Philadelphia Eagles. Teams tend not to cover off of a big home upset victory, as teams are 53-76 ATS following a home upset victory since 2012. It makes sense that teams would be overconfident and/or overvalued off of a home upset victory. On top of that, the Redskins have to fly overseas and play the Bengals in London next week and teams are 8-19-1 ATS before playing in London all-time, which also makes sense. As long as this line is under 3, it’s worth putting money on Detroit. This figures to be a shootout, but the Lions should be able to win by at least a field goal at home.

Detroit Lions 31 Washington Redskins 27

Pick against the spread: Detroit -1

Confidence: Medium

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Oakland Raiders at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2016 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (4-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3)

The Raiders were one of my underrated teams coming into the season but, despite a 4-2 start, I’ve been very disappointed with them. Their record is misleading, as their first 5 games were all decided by a touchdown or fewer (with 3 of them decided by 3 points or fewer). The only game they’ve played that’s been decisive either way was last week’s crushing 26-10 home loss to divisional rival Kansas City. They also rank 27th in first down percentage differential, thanks primarily to a defense that ranks 29th in first down percentage allowed.

Their offense, which ranks 9th in first down percentage, might actually be exceeding my expectations a little bit, but their defense has been horrendous, as they have not played up to their talent level at all. That could still happen going forward, as they are, on paper, one of the more complete teams in the NFL, with strong talent on both sides of the ball, but it’s far from a guarantee at this point. A week ago, I would have been all over Oakland as underdogs of any amount of points in Jacksonville, but I’m less confident in them now, as 1 point road underdogs.

I am still taking Oakland though and it’s not because, on paper, they have a significant talent advantage. They’re also in a much better spot than the Jaguars, who have to turn around and play division rival Tennessee on Thursday Night next week. Favorites are just 50-77 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008. The Raiders, meanwhile, go to Tampa Bay next week to take on a Buccaneers team that isn’t that good, so they don’t have any upcoming distractions. On top of that, the Raiders have been much better on the road (13-6 ATS) than at home (6-12 ATS) over the past few years, dating back to 2014. I’m still putting money on the Raiders, but this would have been a higher confidence pick a week ago.

Oakland Raiders 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 20 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Oakland +1

Confidence: Medium

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Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets: 2016 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (3-3) at New York Jets (1-5)

No team has had a bigger drop-off from 2015 to 2016 than the New York Jets. A year removed from going 10-6 and finishing 2nd in first down percentage differential, the Jets are now 1-5 and rank dead last in that metric. They entered the season with one of the oldest rosters in the league, so some drop-off was to be expected, but they’ve been night and day different than last year. The obvious culprit is the offense, where veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has been easily the worst quarterbacks in the NFL this season and has looked lost without injured wide receiver Eric Decker, who is out for the season. However, their defense has been just as bad. One year after finishing 1st in first down percentage allowed, they enter this game 28th in that metric, just one spot worse than their offense, which enters in 29th in first down percentage.

The Jets have made the switch at quarterback from Fitzpatrick to backup Geno Smith, who will be making his first start since 2014 this week. He’s unlikely to be better though, as he looked overmatched as a starter in his first 2 seasons in the league in 2013 and 2014 and didn’t look much better in relief of Fitzpatrick last week. In his career, he’s completed 57.9% of his passes for an average of 6.84 YPA, 27 touchdowns, and 36 interceptions. He also doesn’t have a lot of talent around him on either side of the ball; outside of the defensive line, this team doesn’t have a single above average position group.

Despite that, they’re actually favored at home in this matchup for some reason, as 2 point home favorites over the visiting Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are far from great, entering at 3-3 with all 6 games decided by a touchdown or less, and also enter this game very banged up, missing both starting outside linebackers Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil, middle linebacker CJ Mosley, wide receiver Steve Smith, and right guard Marshal Yanda. Those are some of their best players. However, they still shouldn’t be getting points here on the road against an awful Jets team. Even as banged up as they are, they still have a significantly more talented roster than the Jets.

On top of that, the Ravens are in a great spot in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 132-100 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 104-68 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 222-236 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.87 points per game, as opposed to 322-448 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.03 points per game. In fact, the Ravens have actually played a game in New York more recently than the Jets did, losing a close one to the Giants last week. The Jets, meanwhile, have had to fly to the West Coast and back in the past week, with a crushing 28-3 defeat in Arizona on Monday Night Football in between. I don’t see them being able to bounce back on a short week. The Ravens are my Pick of the Week.

Baltimore Ravens 20 New York Jets 16 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Baltimore +2

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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