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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

Last week: 31 (+0)

Record: 0-6

Last week, Football Outsiders called the Buccaneers the best 0-5 team (in their history, since 1991) in terms of DVOA. I don’t have the historical context to determine whether or not that was true, but it made sense and they were definitely better than their record would have suggested. Every single team they had faced was 3-3 or better and 3 of the losses came by 3 points or less. An 8 point loss in Atlanta didn’t help their DVOA, but they are still fairly high in DVOA in comparison to their record, as they come in 24th. They’ll win a few games.

Week 7 Studs

LOLB Lavonte David

DT Gerald McCoy

Week 7 Duds

LE Daniel Te’o-Nesheim

CB Johnthan Banks

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Jacksonville Jaguars: 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Last week: 32 (+0)

Record: 0-7

The Jaguars suck. I don’t know what else to say. It’s hard to come up with something to say about them every week. They’ve lost all 7 games by double figures and the only two games they’ve played that were within 16 points were against two bottom-5 teams in these Power Rankings (Oakland, St. Louis). They go to London this week to play San Francisco and will almost definitely go into the bye at 0-8. It’s very, very hard to go 0-16 though, so they’ll probably win a game, against someone like Tennessee, Arizona, Cleveland, Buffalo, or Houston.

Week 7 Studs

WR Mike Brown

RT Austin Pasztor

Week 7 Duds

ROLB Geno Hayes

CB Alan Ball

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Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, Browns, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (3-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-0)

Last week, I took a 3rd string quarterback in Kansas City as significant underdogs, even though I was scared, because they were in such a good spot. That worked out for me as Case Keenum led the Texans to a near win as the Chiefs won by a final score of just 17-16. This week, the Chiefs are once again facing a 3rd string quarterback at home and the Browns, like the Texans were last week, are in a good spot. I actually like the Browns even more than I did the Texans for two reasons.

The first reason is that this line is a point higher. That might not seem like a significant difference, but it is because 7 is a key number. Approximately 8% of games are decided by exactly a touchdown. The second reason is I trust Jason Campbell more than I did Case Keenum. Keenum was a complete unknown going into last week’s game. He couldn’t get himself drafted in 2012 and he hadn’t played an NFL snap in his career. That scared me. Campbell, however, is proven.

With the Raiders, he went 11-7 in 2010 and 2011 with a team that hadn’t won more than 5 games in a season since 2003 and has gone 10-22 in their next 26 games without him. He really didn’t look good in about 6 quarters of work in place of an injured Jay Cutler in Chicago last year, but he was facing two of the best defenses in the NFL last season in San Francisco and Houston in those two games and he had very little offensive supporting talent around him. He has 71 career starts so I’m not going to base my opinion on him off of 6 quarters last year. We know what he is. His career quarterback rating is 82.4 as he’s completed 60.8% of his passes for an average of 6.7 YPA, 76 touchdowns, and 52 interceptions.

He’s not great, but he’s alright and he’ll almost definitely be an upgrade over Brandon Weeden. The Browns have a solid supporting cast. We saw Brian Hoyer win 3 games in 3 tries with the team earlier this season before tearing his ACL because he was able to get the ball to Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron downfield and rely on a solid defense. Jason Campbell should be able to do his best Brian Hoyer impression.

It helps Campbell that the Browns are in a good spot this week, as I mentioned earlier. They are road dogs off of a road loss, a situation teams are 95-55 ATS in since 2008 and a situation which historically covers at around a 65% rate, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample. Meanwhile, while the Chiefs are 7-0 and have a top-5, arguably top-1 defense, they aren’t as good as their record. They don’t move the ball well offensively and they’ve faced a cupcake schedule and they’ve been helped by an unsustainable turnover margin of +11.

In 4 home games, they beaten the Texans and Cowboys by a point a piece and their games with the Giants and Raiders were within a touchdown going into the 4th quarter before a few fluky things busted things open. The Browns have a much better defense than those two teams so they should be able to keep it a close, low scoring game like the Texans and Cowboys did. Despite that, the public is still all over the undefeated Chiefs like they were last week. I expect a similar result and the odds makers to make money again.

The only concern here and the reason why this isn’t a Pick of the Week is that Cleveland might lack enough focus to keep this close. They have a big divisional home game against the Ravens, while the Chiefs have no distractions with a trip to Buffalo on deck. Non-divisional road dogs are 49-76 ATS since 2002 before being divisional home dogs, while non-divisional home favorites are 66-45 ATS since 2008 before being non-divisional road favorites. However, since the Chiefs are 7-0, I think the Browns will be plenty focused. Home favorites who are 5-0 or better are 19-30 ATS since 2002. It’s a big play on the Browns.

Kansas City Chiefs 16 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against spread: Cleveland +7.5

Confidence: High

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2013 Week 8 Fantasy Football Pickups

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Pickups, Uncategorized

RB Zac Stacy (St. Louis)

Percent owned (ESPN): 10.2%

For some reason, Zac Stacy is still un-owned in most leagues, despite starting at running back for the past 3 weeks. He’s rushed for 210 yards on 49 carries in the last 3 weeks and will continue to start going forward. He needs to be owned universally because he’s a starting running back in the NFL.

RB Mike James (Tampa Bay)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.1%

Doug Martin hurt his shoulder and is out indefinitely. He’ll miss at least this week’s game against the Panthers and there is some speculation that he could be done for the season. Mike James rushed for 45 yards on 14 carries in relief of Martin this week and will be the lead back going forward. He’s a must own going forward.

TE Jordan Reed (Washington)

Percent owned (ESPN): 3.8%

Jordan Reed had a breakout game against the Bears this week, catching 9 passes for 134 yards and a touchdown and now he has 18 catches for 242 yards and a touchdown in his last 3 games. Fred Davis was a healthy scratch this week so Reed is now the every down tight end. The rookie has established himself as Robert Griffin’s #2 option after Pierre Garcon. He’s worth starting going forward.

WR Percy Harvin (Seattle)

Percent owned (ESPN): 22.8%

Percy Harvin began practicing this Monday during a long week and there’s a chance he could return for this Monday Night’s game against the Cardinals. He could easily be a weekly startable player once he gets right so he’s worth picking up and stashing on your bench, especially if you have a free injured list spot.

TE Heath Miller (Pittsbugh)

Percent owned (ESPN): 21.7%

Heath Miller, Ben Roethlisberger’s security blanket, has 14 catches for 171 yards and a touchdown in his last 3 games. He’ll continue being a low end starting tight end in fantasy football going forward.

WR Jarrett Boykin (Green Bay)

Percent owned (ESPN): 1.4%

With Randall Cobb and James Jones out, Jarrett Boykin was the #2 receiver and caught 8 passes for 103 yards and a touchdown. James Jones is probably going to be back next week, but Randall Cobb is on the short-term injured reserve list and Jermichael Finley is also out indefinitely so there will be plenty of targets going forward for Boykin in one of the league’s premier offense.

WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (Indianapolis)

Percent owned (ESPN): 3.8%

Reggie Wayne is out for the season with a torn ACL. Darrius Heyward-Bey isn’t very good, but he’ll be an every down receiver going forward on an explosive offense. He’s worth picking up for that reason and stashing in case he starts producing.

RB Peyton Hillis (NY Giants)

Percent owned (ESPN): 1.9%

I guess Peyton Hillis is worth picking up if Brandon Jacobs misses another week with injury. David Wilson, Andre Brown, and Da’Rel Scott remain out long-term so the Giants are literally scrapping the bottom of the barrel for running backs signing Special Agent Peyton Hillis. Hillis isn’t very talented (hence why he was at the bottom of the barrel) and he rushed for just 36 yards on 18 carries with a long of 8, but he scored on the ground and added 4 catches for 45 yards and he could be a starting running back for another week so he’s worth a look in deeper leagues.

 

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San Francisco 49ers at Tennessee Titans: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 7 NFL Picks, 49ers, Titans, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (4-2) at Tennessee Titans (3-3)

I have legitimate concerns about the 49ers’ offense. Their defense is more than fine once again, as opponents move the chains at a 70% rate. Even without Aldon Smith, they have plenty of talent defensively. However, offensively it’s clear that Colin Kaepernick is not the same as he was last season, at least thus far. As a result, the offense is moving the chains at just a 70% rate as well.

Kaepernick is completing just 55.9% of his passes for an average of 7.6 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions this season. The problem is twofold. One is his lack of receivers. Michael Crabtree and Mario Manningham remain out so Kaepernick has been limited to Anquan Boldin, Vernon Davis, and a bunch of scrubs. Boldin busted out of the gate on fire this season with 13 catches for 208 yards and a touchdown in the opener, but he’s barely matched that in his other 5 games, catching 16 passes for 213 yards and a touchdown. Kaepernick seriously misses Crabtree, his go to receiver down the stretch last year. Crabtree totaled 66 catches for 950 yards and 9 touchdowns in 11 games with Kaepernick last season, over a third of Kaepernick passing production.

The other reason is he hasn’t been able to run the ball nearly as effectively. After rushing for 568 yards and 6 touchdowns on 75 carries in 11 games last year, Kaepernick has rushed for 172 yards and no scores on 31 carries in 6 games this year. This is a growing trend across the league as mobile quarterbacks like Robert Griffin and Cam Newton have also been kept in check on the ground this year as teams have had an off-season to study them and the read option. It’s something Kaepernick will have to adapt to and, while I believe he’s capable of it, it’s something I’ll have to see first.

The Titans, meanwhile, remain a solid team even with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. Obviously he’s the limiting factor, but they have a great defense that only allows opponents to move the chains at a 71% rate, while their offense moves the chains at a 70% rate. They were the 2nd team over the past 2 seasons to cover in Seattle last week. The 49ers are getting better in terms of rate of moving the chains differential every week, after their rough start, so I’m hesitant to bet against them, but these two teams are very even in that aspect, so I immediately want to take the 4 point home underdog. This should be a very close game and even if the 49ers win, it could easily be by a field goal or less.

Update: Jake Locker is going to surprisingly start despite injury. I don’t know how this changing things. I’m going to continue staying away.

San Francisco 49ers 13 Tennessee Titans 12

Pick against spread: Tennessee +4

Confidence: None

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 7 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Falcons, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-5) at Atlanta Falcons (1-4)

I could go either way on this one. On one hand, Tampa Bay may be 0-5, but DVOA calls them the best 0-5 team ever (at least as far back as they have data, going back to 1991). I don’t have the historical context to determine whether or not that’s true, but it makes sense and they’re definitely better than their record would suggest. Every single team they’ve faced thus far has been 3-3 or better and 3 of the losses came by 3 points or less.

The Falcons are arguably the easiest team they’ve faced thus far. In terms of record, they are definitely the easiest at 1-4 and they’ve already lost to 3 of the teams the Buccaneers have faced. Injuries have decimated this team on both sides of the ball. Defensively, they are missing starting defensive end Kroy Biermann for the season and linebacker Sean Weatherspoon indefinitely. This is killing a defense that was pretty thin and lacked impact players to begin with, after losing Vance Walker and John Abraham this off-season.

Offensively, left tackle Sam Baker has missed time and will probably miss this week as well, forcing them to once again start the terrible tackle duo of Lamar Holmes and Jeremy Trueblood. Steven Jackson remains out, forcing the overmatched Jacquizz Rodgers and Jason Snelling to try to establish some sort of a running game, which they’ve been inconsistent at best at doing, especially behind an offensive line that has just 1 starter in the same spot he was in last season. Now both Julio Jones and Roddy White are out, Jones for the season and White for at least this week as his leg problems have gotten just too limiting to play through. He’ll miss the first game of his 133 game career this week and he was a shadow of himself in the first 5 games of the season, catching 14 passes for 129 yards.

There’s a chance they could win 6 or fewer games and teams who do so rarely cover as favorites of 6 or more. Teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 25-69 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend. One, it’s very rare (it only happened 7 times all last season, going 2-5 ATS). Two, it’s even rarer that a situation will come up in which you can confidently use the trend. The Eagles were 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland last year week 1 (they didn’t cover), but there was at the time there was no way to know that the Eagles would finish 6-10 or worse. The Falcons could be in this situation this week, but there’s no guarantee.

On the other hand, the Falcons are a proud veteran team with a top-10 quarterback and they’ve had a week off. I actually don’t think they’ll win 6 or fewer games. I have them finishing at 7-9 right now, though that’s obviously subject to change. As bad as their defense is, allowing opponents to move the chains at an 80% rate, but they still move the chains at a 79% rate offensively.

The Falcons have also faced a tough schedule, as all 5 of their opponents are currently .500 or better. All 4 of their losses have come by 6 points or less and even though their only win was by just 7, they led the Rams 21-0 early before garbage time. If they can beat the Rams by a touchdown, they can beat the inferior Buccaneers by a touchdown as well, even after injuries. They’re also historically very good at home and off of a loss in the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith era. They are 25-17 ATS (34-9 SU) at home in games in which Matt Ryan starts and they are 18-6 ATS off of a loss in games in which Matt Ryan starts. I’m going with the Falcons to prove they’re not quite as bad as people think against an inferior opponent, but I have no confidence.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

Pick against spread: Atlanta -7

Confidence: None

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Cincinnati Bengals at Detroit Lions: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 7 NFL Picks, Bengals, Lions, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) at Detroit Lions (4-2)

These two teams are about as evenly matched as two teams can be. They are 9th (Lions) and 10th (Bengals) in my Power Rankings. They have the same record (4-2). The Lions have outscored opponents by a few more points on the season (+22 vs. +10), but the Bengals have played a slightly tougher schedule, as the Lions’ opponents are a combined 3 games under .500, while the Bengals’ opponents are a combined 2 games above .500. The Bengals are slightly better in DVOA, about 5%, as they are 9th and the Lions are 12th. Both teams have had injuries to significant players who have since returned, Leon Hall, Michael Johnson, Andrew Whitworth and Reggie Nelson for the Bengals and Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush for the Lions.

In terms or rate of moving the chains, they have very, very similar differentials, with the Bengals about 3/100ths of a percent better than the Lions. The Lions are doing it more with offense, moving the chains at a 77% rate, while their opponents move the chains at a 74% rate. The Bengals, meanwhile, have an offense that moves the chains at a 74% rate, but their defense holds opponents to a 71% rate. And to top it off, this line essentially suggests these two teams are exactly even with the Lions favored by 2.5 points at home.

The Bengals do have a trend on their side. Non-divisional road dogs are 95-61 ATS since 1989 before being non-divisional home favorites. With only a game against the Jets next on the schedule, the Bengals could be more focused than the Lions, who play the Cowboys next week. However, I’d actually go with the Lions if I had to take a side. I don’t like the way the Bengals have played on the road this season, losing in Chicago, Cleveland, and going to overtime in Buffalo. You couldn’t pay me to put money on either side though (well you probably could, but still).

Detroit Lions 23 Cincinnati Bengals 20

Pick against spread: Detroit -2.5

Confidence: None

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Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts: Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 7 NFL Picks, Broncos, Colts, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (6-0) at Indianapolis Colts (4-2)

The Broncos have failed to cover in their last 2 instances, barely winning in Dallas and sleepwalking to a 16 point win over the Jaguars at home. However, the odds makers continue boosting the spread on them as if they are some kind of perfect, invulnerable opponent. I never bought that they could continue this level of play all season and we’ve shown them display some cracks, particularly defensively, in recent weeks. This week, they are 7 point favorites on the road over the Colts and the public is still all over them. I think the Colts are too good of a team to be 7 point home underdogs to anyone.

The Colts are moving the ball at an 81% rate offensively thanks to a breakout season from Andrew Luck, in part because of new offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton’s system and an improved offensive line. Defensively, they are allowing opponents to move the ball at a 74% rate. That’s slightly worse than league average, but they are still improved defensively over last season, thanks to the addition of new players through free agency and the return of defensive mind Chuck Pagano from cancer.

That +7% differential is 5th in the NFL. The Broncos are still 1st at +11%, moving the chains at an 86% rate, as opposed to 75% for their opponents. However, I don’t think they deserve to be favored by this much in Indianapolis. The Colts flopped last week in San Diego, but I don’t put much weight into that. It was an obvious trap game situation between a win as home underdogs over the Seahawks and this huge game. They also were in a bad spot as an Eastern Time Zone team on the West Coast at a 8 PM ET start. They should be able to bounce back and at least keep this within a touchdown, if not hand the Broncos their first loss of the season.

Denver Broncos 34 Indianapolis Colts 31

Pick against spread: Indianapolis +7

Confidence: Medium

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