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Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots: 2016 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 6 NFL Picks, Bengals, NFL Picks, Patriots, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (2-3) at New England Patriots (4-1)

The Patriots got a big 20 point win in Cleveland last week, while the Bengals lost by 14 points in Dallas. As a result, this line has moved from 7 on the early line last week to 9 this week. I think this line is too high now. The Patriots’ performance was impressive, but the Bengals are a much tougher opponent than the Browns. The Patriots are a top-5 team with Tom Brady back, but the Bengals are better than this line and their record suggest. They’re 2-3, but all 3 of their losses came against tough opponents, Denver, Pittsburgh, and Dallas. They’re not as good as they were last year, missing injured tight end Tyler Eifert, and free agent departures Marvin Jones, Mohamed Sanu, Reggie Nelson, and Leon Hall. However, they’re still a legitimate playoff contender.

They’re also in a great spot here, even against a tough New England team. For one, they’re in their second straight road game. Teams are 133-98 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 108-66 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 233-234 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.49 points per game, as opposed to 333-455 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.80 points per game.

The Bengals also have a very easy game on deck against the Browns. The early line has them as 10.5 point favorites, a big swing from this game. Underdogs of 6 or more are 40-30 ATS since 2008 before being favorites of 6 or more. It’s much easier to keep it close against a superior opponent if you don’t have a tough game upcoming to provide as a distraction. The Patriots, meanwhile, go to Pittsburgh next week for arguably their toughest regular season game. As long as you can get it higher than a touchdown, it’s worth putting money on the Bengals. This figures to be a close game.

New England Patriots 24 Cincinnati Bengals 20

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +9

Confidence: Medium

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Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans: 2016 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (0-5) at Tennessee Titans (2-3)

Ordinarily, I like to go against significant week-to-week line movements, because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. The early line for this game had the Titans as 5.5 point favorites, but the line has since moved up to 7 this week. However, that’s not enough to scare me off of Tennessee. I’ve had the Titans on my underrated list since the start of the season and they are still better than this line suggests. Despite their 2-3 record, they rank 5th in first down percentage differential. They’ve been competitive in every game and have a -9 point differential on the season, despite being -4 in return touchdown differential. Aside from those 4 plays, they have a +18 point differential and have quietly played very solid football this season. They’ve allowed just 6 touchdowns all season on 51 drives.

The Browns might have played a little bit tougher of a schedule than the Browns, but they’re a much inferior team. They have one of the league’s weakest rosters, especially with all of the players that are out with injury, and they rank 31st in first down percentage differential. The Browns were 10 point underdogs in Miami and 8 point underdogs in Washington, so it doesn’t make any sense that they’re just 7 point underdogs in Tennessee against the Titans, who are better than both of those teams. Even with the line movement, this line is too low.

Making matters worse for the Browns, they have another tough game on deck, as they travel to Cincinnati to play the division rival Bengals. Underdogs of 6+ are 46-74 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs of 6+ again. It’s very tough for inferior teams play well enough to keep it close against a superior team when they have another significantly superior opponent on deck. Betting on bad teams like the Browns is not always a bad idea, but big underdogs tend to only cover when they don’t have another equally tough or tougher opponent on deck. The early line actually has the Browns as 10.5 point underdogs in Cincinnati (even though the Titans and Bengals are actually comparably good teams). Teams are 39-61 ATS since 2012 before being double digit underdogs. It’s possibly that line shifts under 10 in the next week, but, either way, it’s a tough spot for the Browns against an underrated Tennessee team.

Tennessee Titans 24 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against the spread: Tennessee -7

Confidence: High

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears: 2016 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3) at Chicago Bears (1-4)

This one is tough. Despite similar records and arguably similar levels of talent, the Bears have significantly outplayed the Jaguars through the first 5 weeks of the season. Despite a ton of injuries (Pernell McPhee, Eddie Goldman, Kevin White, LaMarr Houston, Kyle Fuller, Jay Cutler), the Bears rank 8th in the first down percentage differential. They’re arguably healthy now than they were a few weeks ago, with the return of middle linebacker Danny Trevathan from injury. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are healthier than they’ve been all season. Jared Odrick, Prince Amukamara, Brandon Linder, and Kelvin Beachum all missed time earlier in the year, but, coming out of their bye, they are only missing mediocre guard Luke Joeckel. However, through 4 games, they are 27th in first down percentage differential.

Despite that, the Bears are only favored by 1.5 points here at home, suggesting the oddsmakers see the Jaguars as the superior team. That hasn’t been true thus far, as they’ve had much different numbers against fairly comparable schedules. The Jaguars have played the Packers, Chargers, Ravens, and Colts, while the Bears have faced the Texans, Chargers, Cowboys, Lions, and Colts. All of that being said, the reason I can’t be confident in Chicago is because they have easily their biggest game of the season on deck next week, which could cause them to overlook an unfamiliar, underwhelming opponent.

The Bears travel to Green Bay, where they are expected to be 10.5 point underdogs against the Packers, according to the early line. Teams are 39-61 ATS since 2012 before being 10+ point underdogs and 19-33 ATS as favorites before being 10+ point underdogs since 2008. On top of that, favorites are 50-75 ATS since 2008 before a Thursday night game. The Bears are the pick and could be worth putting money on (I may decide to later), but I’m worried about the possibility of the Bears showing up flat with a huge game on deck and the Jaguars showing up and playing their best football of the season, healthy coming out of the bye.

Update: I’ve decided to bump this up to a medium confidence play. As long as the line is under a field goal, the Bears have a good chance to cover.

Chicago Bears 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 16

Pick against the spread: Chicago -1.5

Confidence: Medium

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins: 2016 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) at Miami Dolphins (1-4)

One of my favorite things to do as a bettor is go against significant week-to-week line movements, as they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. This game has one, as the Steelers were 4.5 point road favorites on the early line last week, but are now favored by 8. It makes some sense why the line would move significantly, as the Dolphins lost at home to the Titans last week, while the Steelers got their second straight big victory, beating the Jets 31-13. However, the line movement is still way too much and we’re getting a lot of line value with the Dolphins at 8 as a result. Despite that, the public is still all over the Steelers. I also love going against the public when it makes sense, as they always lose money in the long run.

The Steelers’ last two wins came by large margins, but both were at home. Now they’re on the road, where it’s much tougher to come away with big wins. The Steelers especially have had trouble on the road against seemingly inferior opponents in the Mike Tomlin era, as they are just 9-21 ATS as non-divisional road favorites since Tomlin arrived in 2007. In their last road game, they lost 34-3 in Philadelphia as 4 point road favorites. The Dolphins are not nearly as good as the Eagles, but they’re still good enough to keep it close against a Pittsburgh team that could overlook them, especially with a huge game against the Patriots next week. That game could easily be a major distraction.

The Steelers also come into this game pretty banged up, more banged up than most realize. They’ll be without defensive end Cameron Heyward, arguably their best defensive player, for the first time this season, while right tackle Marcus Gilbert and middle linebacker Ryan Shazier remain out with injuries. Also out is wide receiver Markus Wheaton, while fellow wide receiver is questionable with a hand laceration and could be limited even if he goes. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are getting healthier, as their top-3 offensive lineman (Branden Albert, Laremy Tunsil, and Mike Pouncey) are all healthy at the same time for the first time all year. Having their entire offensive line back should help this offense immensely and gives them a good chance to have a bounce back offensive performance, especially with Pittsburgh missing Heyward. I like the Dolphins a lot this week.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against the spread: Miami +8

Confidence: High

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Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders: 2016 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) at Oakland Raiders (4-1)

This is easily the most confusing line of the week. I’ve had the Raiders on my underrated list since the start of the season and I still think they have one of the more talented rosters in the NFL, even if they haven’t had a convincing victory over anyone through 5 weeks. The Raiders have started 4-1 though, so I figured they’d still be at least field goal favorites here at home against a Chiefs team that’s average at best without top pass rusher Justin Houston, who remains out with a knee injury. Instead, the Raiders are inexplicably 2 point home underdogs. There’s a significant talent gap between these two teams and I would have had the line at least 4 in favor of the Raiders, so we’re getting a great value with the Raiders here for some reason.

The Raiders don’t even have a tough upcoming game that could be a distraction. Next week, they travel to Jacksonville to face a Jaguars team that’s currently 1-3. In fact, the Raiders are expected to be road favorites in Jacksonville next week, even as much as the oddsmakers seem to underestimate them. Home underdogs are 77-45 ATS since 2002 before being road favorites. The early line only has the Raiders as 2.5 point road favorites next week, but that could easily jump to 4 if the Raiders have a strong showing here, which I expect them to do. This is my Pick of the Week. The money line is also a great value at +115.

Oakland Raiders 24 Kansas City Chiefs 17 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Oakland +2

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers: 2016 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (4-1) at San Diego Chargers (1-4)

Going into the season, I had the Chargers on my underrated list. They went 4-12 in 2015, but that was largely a result of bad injury luck and a poor record in close games (3-9 in games decided by 8 points or fewer). Both of those things tend to even out in the long run, which is why I expected significantly more wins for them this season, but they haven’t evened out so far for the Chargers. The Chargers are 1-4 despite a +10 point differential and a +2.04% first down percentage differential (11th in the NFL), as all 4 of their losses have come by 6 points or fewer, while their lone win came by 24 points week 2 against the Jaguars.

The Chargers are legitimately a few plays away from being 4-1 or even 5-0, but blew late leads to Kansas City, Indianapolis, and New Orleans. Meanwhile, they’ve also lost top wide receiver Keenan Allen, talented passing down back Danny Woodhead, slot wide receiver Steve Johnson, and top cornerback Jason Verrett for the season with injuries, while cornerback Brandon Flowers is expected to miss his 3rd straight game with a concussion. The Chargers’ record in close games should still even out in the long run and they should still win more games this season than they did last season, but there’s no denying the amount of talent the Chargers are missing with injury.

The Broncos are a much more talented team and were 4-0 going into last week, prior to a disappointing 23-16 home loss last week against the Atlanta Falcons. Despite that loss, they actually still rank 1st in the NFL in first down percentage differential at 5.98%. Their defense played well against the Falcons all things considered, as the Falcons rank #1 in the NFL in first down percentage, but had just an average offensive performance against the Broncos. On the season, the Broncos are 7th in the NFL in first down percentage allowed, despite facing some tough offenses thus far (Carolina, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Atlanta).

The offense was the problem for them, as they struggled to move the ball all day, despite being at home and facing a mediocre at best Atlanta defense. The Broncos still rank 9th in the NFL in first down percentage though and get quarterback Trevor Siemian back from injury this week, after he missed last week’s start with an injured shoulder. In Siemian’s absence, first round rookie Paxton Lynch looked overmatched and not nearly ready to be an NFL quarterback. Lynch might have more long-term upside than Siemian, but Siemian has been a more than serviceable quarterback through the early part of the season. The underwhelming offensive performance last week is cause for concern, especially considering how stagnant their offense was for most of last season, but Siemian is better than either of the quarterbacks they had last season and the offensive line and running game have been better as well.

More concerning is the fact that head coach Gary Kubiak will miss this game with migraine issues. It’s unclear how the team will handle his absence, which makes the Broncos a much riskier bet. The health of Siemian’s shoulder just a week and a half after the injury is also a risk. Talent wise, the Broncos should be able to win this game pretty easily, as the Chargers have no homefield advantage (6-12 ATS at home since 2014), but I wouldn’t bet on them unless I could get lower than 3, which seems unlikely. About 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, so I can’t be confident in Denver at 3.5.

Denver Broncos 23 San Diego Chargers 17

Pick against the spread: Denver -3.5

Confidence: Low

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers: 2016 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3) at Carolina Panthers (1-3)

Both of these two teams enter this game incredibly banged up. The Buccaneers are missing their two top running backs (Doug Martin and Charles Sims), their top two defensive linemen (Gerald McCoy and Robert Ayers), and starting defensive tackle Clinton McDonald. The Panthers, meanwhile, are missing starting quarterback Cam Newton, starting running back Jonathan Stewart, starting left tackle Michael Oher and first and second round rookies Vernon Butler and James Bradberry, who were both playing roles on defense.

Cam Newton’s injury is obviously the big one as he’ll miss his first and the Panthers hope his only game with a concussion, after being knocked out in the middle of last week’s loss in Atlanta. With so many missing players, it’s tough to figure out where the line should be, but I’d estimate that Newton missing is worth about 5 points on the line. This line at 5 suggests the Panthers should be favored by around 10 points with a healthy Newton, even without Stewart, Oher, and the others. I think that’s a little high given that Carolina hasn’t played nearly as well this season as last season, missing the presence of Josh Norman on defense immensely and not executing offensively the way they did last year either. I’m going to take the points, especially since about 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer, but Tampa Bay is too banged up for me to be confident in them this week.

Carolina Panthers 23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +5

Confidence: Low

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Washington Redskins at Baltimore Ravens: 2016 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Washington Redskins (2-2) at Baltimore Ravens (3-1)

This is a line that doesn’t make a ton of sense, as the Ravens are mere 3.5 point home favorites for the Redskins. The Ravens are 3-1 on the thanks to 3 straight wins to start the season. None of those opponents were tough though, as they faced the Bills, Browns, and Jaguars, and all 3 games were close. On top of that, last week they lost at home against easily the best team they’ve faced thus far, the Oakland Raiders. However, that game was close as well (1 point) and the Ravens still rank 5th in rate of first down percentage differential.

On top of that, their opponents this week, the Washington Redskins, are much closer in talent level to the first 3 teams the Ravens faced than they are to the Raiders, who are a legitimate playoff team this season. The Redskins have a talented offense, but rank dead last in first down percentage allowed on defense, largely as a result of the worst run defense in the league. Free agent acquisition Josh Norman is playing well at cornerback, but the rest of the secondary has been terrible, largely thanks to injuries to #2 cornerback Bashaud Breeland, #3 cornerback Dashaun Phillips, and top safety DeAngelo Hall, all of whom remain out.

Overall, they rank 30th in first down percentage differential, only ahead of the Browns and Rams. They played the former last week and allowed a whopping 26 first downs in a game that was a lot closer than the final score suggested. There’s not quite enough for me to put money on the Ravens this week, but that will change if the line moves to a field goal before gametime. On average, about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. Even still, this line is too low at 3.5 and the Ravens are the pick.

Baltimore Ravens 23 Washington Redskins 17

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -3.5

Confidence: Low

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Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys: 2016 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) at Dallas Cowboys (3-1)

The Cowboys have gone 3-1 to start the season, but have played a pretty easy schedule so far. They’ve beaten up on the Bears and 49ers in the past two weeks, two of the worst teams in the league, and their toughest games came against divisional rivals Washington and New York, neither of whom have a great team this year. There’s a very good argument to be made that the Bengals are the toughest team the Cowboys have faced this year. The Cowboys are at home, but the Cowboys have fans all over the country, so they really haven’t had much homefield in advantage in recent years, going 16-34 ATS at home since 2010, as opposed to 29-21 ATS on the road. Over that time period, they’ve outscored opponents by 0.61 points per game at home and been outscored by 0.72 points per game on the road, meaning their homefield advantage hasn’t even been worth a point over that time period.

The Cowboys are 7-5 ATS as home underdogs over that time period, but this line isn’t at the full field goal yet, so basically all the Bengals would have to do is cover straight up. The Cowboys do get defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence back from a 4-game suspension and left tackle Tyron Smith back from a 2-game absence with back problems, but they’ll likely be without top wide receiver Dez Bryant for the second straight game and top cornerback Orlando Scandrick for the third straight game, after neither player practiced at all this week.

The Bengals are still the better team and have a good chance to win straight up in a stadium in which the Cowboys haven’t had a ton of success. Neither of these teams are in a great spot, as the Bengals head to New England next week, while the Cowboys to go Green Bay, two very tough and important upcoming games for these two teams. For that reason, I don’t have a great lean on this game at all, but I’m going to take the visiting Bengals unless the line does get up to a field goal. It’s a no confidence pick, but this game has a good chance to be a field goal game.

Cincinnati Bengals 23 Dallas Cowboys 20

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -2

Confidence: None

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New York Giants at Green Bay Packers: 2016 Week 5 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (2-2) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)

This one I’m torn on. On one hand, the Giants are 62-42 ATS as road underdogs since 2004 and they’re in their 2nd of two road games, which is even better. Teams are 131-98 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 106-66 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 231-233 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.53 points per game, as opposed to 331-451 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.81 points per game.

On the other hand, the Packers are one of the best teams in the league, legitimate 7 point home favorites and are expected to be legitimate 6+ point home favorites again next week against the Dallas Cowboys, a comparable team to the Giants. Big home favorites tend to cover before being big home favorites again, as good teams tend to take care of business if they don’t have an upcoming distraction. Teams are 86-49 ATS since 2012 as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites again. On top of that, the Packers used to have strong homefield advantage, going 36-23 ATS in Lambeau Field from 2008-2014, but they’re just 4-4-1 ATS since the start of last season. I’m taking the points, but this is one of my lowest confidence picks of the week.

Green Bay Packers 33 New York Giants 27

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +7

Confidence: None

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