San Francisco 49ers (1-2) at St. Louis Rams (1-2)

I legitimately don’t understand this line. Yes, the 49ers haven’t looked good in the past two weeks, but neither have the Rams. Week 2, the Rams were down 21-0 in Atlanta before a combination of garbage time and Falcon injuries allowed them to get it within 7 by the time the game ended. Last week, they got blown out 31-7 in Dallas and it wasn’t even that close. The Rams managed a grand total of one first down in the first half before garbage time. They’ve been outscored by 41-3 in the first half over the past two weeks.

The difference between these two teams is that I expect the 49ers to bounce back. Last week’s loss was embarrassing, at home against the Colts, a team who has no recent history of beating good teams, blowing teams out, or having success on the road. However, it’s very possible that was just an aberration. The 49ers’ loss in Seattle the week before was more legitimate, but there is no shame in losing, even losing big, in Seattle, where it’s near impossible to win.

The 49ers return Vernon Davis from injury, which is going to help their offense tremendously because it gives Kaepernick someone other than Anquan Boldin to throw to. It’s much easier to take away one receiver than it is to take away two. Aldon Smith is out for the 49ers, as he gets treatment for a drinking problem, but the 49ers have enough talent to make up for his absence. They had a league leading 11 of my top-200 players last month, while they were simultaneously seen as a unanimous top-3 NFL team. People have completely overreacted to their 1-2 start.

Aldon Smith’s absence could actually be good thing in the sense that he’s no longer a distraction. It’s very possible that had something to do with their dud performance at home last week. Patrick Willis’ absence will be much bigger as he misses this week with a groin problem, but they do have enough other talent to make up for it. There’s still no reason why they should be mere 3.5 point favorites here in St. Louis.

Trends wise, this is actually a good spot for the 49ers. Teams are 67-39 ATS since 2008 off of back-to-back losses by 20+ points. Teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that situation and I think that’s definitely true here. On top of that, the 49ers were incredible in the Jim Harbaugh era off of a loss until last week. The 49ers were 5-2 ATS off a loss in that time span, 7-2 ATS if you include week 1 games (games after a season ending playoff loss).

If you look closer, that was even more impressive as those two non-covers included a 14 point win as 16.5 point favorites and a 7 point win as 7.5 point favorites, a game they would have covered against the Seahawks if Jim Harbaugh hadn’t declined a safety, in favor of just running the clock out. They had won those 7 games by an average margin of about 17 points per game, 23-6. Last week was obviously the exception, but I think that is still worth mentioning here. I’d be shocked if Jim Harbaugh’s team had a 3^rd straight dud performance.

On top of that, favorites are 37-22 ATS in a divisional matchup against teams they have not beaten in their previous 2 matchups. This makes sense. I ordinarily don’t subscribe to the “revenge game” theory, that teams will be more motivated to beat a team that previously beat them. However, the Rams’ tie and win over the 49ers last year could be having some sort of effect on this line, which is why it’s so low. It’s like that people believe those two performances were not a fluke and that the Rams somehow “have the 49ers” number, whatever that means. I don’t buy that and I’ll just enjoy the low line. It also means the 49ers are highly unlikely to overlook the Rams, especially off of two straight losses. The better team will dominate. Willis’ absence is the only reason this isn’t my Pick of the Week.

I’m also taking the under. The under tends to cover on Thursday Night. I haven’t taken the under yet on a Thursday Night, but there’s always been a reason. First, Broncos/Ravens wasn’t a true Thursday Night game because the two teams had all off-season to prepare. Second, Patriots’ games usually hit the over. Third, I didn’t trust the Eagles’ defense at all last week. However, the under actually did hit both week 2 and week 3 and there’s no reason not to take it this week, especially since it’s a divisional game. The under is 39-21 since 1989 in divisional Thursday Night games. These teams are going to have a hard time going over 42.5.

San Francisco 49ers 23 St. Louis Rams 9

Pick against spread: San Francisco -3.5

Confidence: High

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