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Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts: 2016 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (1-3) at Indianapolis Colts (1-3)

The Colts played in London last week, losing 30-27 to the previously winless Jaguars. The Jaguars have a bye this week, but the Colts are the first team in NFL history to play a game the week after playing an overseas game. I don’t know if this was their decision or the league’s decision, but they don’t go on bye until week 10. That’s gotta hurt them this week. That’s just a ton of traveling, going from Indianapolis to London and back. There’s a reason teams normally go on bye week after going overseas.

Making matters worse, the Colts have to turn around and go to Houston next week for a huge divisional rivalry with a team currently in first place, next week on Sunday Night Football. The Bears, meanwhile, host the Jaguars next week, which is not nearly the same distraction. With an easy game on deck, they should be completely focused for an opponent who might not be. That’s historically been the case, as underdogs are 82-57 ATS since 2012 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs.

That being said, this isn’t a big play for a couple reasons. The first is how many players the Bears are still missing with injury. Middle linebacker Danny Trevathan is expected to return after missing the last few games with a thumb injury, which is a big re-addition, but the Bears are still missing outside linebackers Pernell McPhee and LaMarr Houston, top cornerback Kyle Fuller, and top defensive lineman Eddie Goldman for an extended period of time. Joining them on the sidelines this week are this year’s first round pick Leonard Floyd, which leaves them very thin at outside linebacker, and last year’s first round pick Kevin White, their #2 wide receiver. Quarterback Jay Cutler also remains out, but experienced backup Brian Hoyer has played pretty well in 2 spot starts, to the point where there are rumors he might keep the job from Cutler permanently.

The Colts, meanwhile, are much healthier than they were earlier this season, with defensive Henry Anderson and cornerbacks Vontae Davis and Patrick Robinson back from injury. Those are three of their best defensive players. The Colts still don’t have a ton of talent around the quarterback position on either side of the ball, but we’re not really getting much line value with the Bears at +4.5, even though 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer. The second reason I’m not confident in the Bears is because they could be a little overconfident and overvalued off of last week’s home upset victory over divisional rival Detroit, as teams are 52-75 ATS since 2012 off of a home upset win. I can’t saw for sure they’ll be overconfident, but we did lose a lot of value with the Bears in the past week, as this line was at 6.5 on the early line last week. The Bears are the play, but it’s a low confidence pick unless the line happens to creep back up to 6.

Indianapolis Colts 27 Chicago Bears 24

Pick against the spread: Chicago +4.5

Confidence: Low

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San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders: 2016 Week 5 NFL Pick

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San Diego Chargers (1-3) at Oakland Raiders (3-1)

Going into the season, I had the Chargers on my underrated list. They went 4-12 in 2015, but that was largely a result of bad injury luck and a poor record in close games (3-9 in games decided by 8 points or fewer). Both of those things tend to even out in the long run, which is why I expected significantly more wins for them this season, but they haven’t evened out so far for the Chargers. The Chargers are legitimately a few plays away from being 4-0, but blew late leads to Kansas City, Indianapolis, and New Orleans. Meanwhile, they’ve also lost top wide receiver Keenan Allen, talented passing down back Danny Woodhead, slot wide receiver Steve Johnson, and top cornerback Jason Verrett for the season with injuries. Verrett is their newest loss and he’s as big of a loss to this defense as Allen is to this offense, as the 2014 1st round pick has become one of the best cornerbacks in the game.

The Chargers record in close games should still even out in the long run and they should still win more games than they did last season, but there’s no denying the amount of talent the Chargers are missing with injury. Tight end Antonio Gates is expected back from a 2-game absence, while #3 overall pick Joey Bosa will be making his NFL debut after missing the first 4 games with hamstring problems, but the Chargers will also be without cornerback Brandon Flowers. The Raiders were also on my underrated list before the season started and they’ve delivered so far, starting 3-1. It’s tough to tell exactly how good they are as their first 4 games have decided by a combined 16 points, but I still think they have one of the more talented rosters in the NFL. This line is way too low at 3.5, so I’m going with the Raiders.

Oakland Raiders 27 San Diego Chargers 20

Pick against the spread: Oakland -3.5

Confidence: Medium

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New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2016 Week 5 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (1-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)

The Steelers slipped up week 3 in Philadelphia, losing 34-3, but bounced back in a huge way last week, blowing out the Chiefs 43-14 on Sunday Night Football. That Philadelphia game was likely a fluke. The Eagles are a good team, but when we look back at the Steelers’ season that 31 point loss is going to look like a major outlier. They’ve always had issues with non-divisional road games against seemingly easier opponents in the Mike Tomlin era, but they have one of the most talented rosters in the league, especially with Le’Veon Bell back from injury and suspension. Here they are 7.5 point home favorites over the Jets, which seems reasonable.

They’re also in a much better spot than the Jets, as they have an easy trip to Miami on deck, while the Jets have an equally tough opponent next week when they head to Arizona, where they are likely to be at least 6+ point underdogs once again. Teams are 46-72 ATS since 2012 as 6+ point underdogs before being 6+ point underdogs again, as teams tend to not be as focused as they need to be to keep it close with a tough opponent when they have another tough game on deck. Meanwhile, teams are 82-60 ATS before being 4+ point road favorites and the early line has the Steelers as 4.5 point favorites next week against the Dolphins. There’s not quite enough here for me to put money on the Steelers (that will change if this line happens to fall below a touchdown tomorrow morning), but they should be the right side.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 New York Jets 17

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -7.5

Confidence: Low

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Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos: 2016 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (3-1) at Denver Broncos (4-0)

The Broncos were on my overrated teams list before the season, but they’ve proven me wrong thus far this season. After winning just 4 total games by more than a touchdown last season (including playoffs), I said the Broncos would have to play better this season to win 12 games and the division again, because they wouldn’t be able to rely on winning close games. The Broncos have done just that, winning their last 3 straight games all by 10 points or more. Their +47 point differential is 2nd best in the league and they also rank 2nd in first down percentage differential.

First year starting quarterback Trevor Siemian has played significantly better than either Peyton Manning or Brock Osweiler did last season, while the offensive line and running game look much better in the 2nd year of Gary Kubiak’s offense. They rank 3rd in the NFL in first down percentage, after being one of the worst teams in the league in that category last season. On defense, they’ve played just as well as last season, despite the off-season loss of defensive end Malik Jackson and middle linebacker Danny Trevathan. They rank 7th in first down percentage allowed, despite facing the Panthers, Colts, and Bengals, three strong offenses.

The Falcons have also exceeded expectations, starting 3-1 with wins over legitimate playoff contenders Oakland and Carolina (the former is 3-1, while the latter is 1-3 and has played better than that suggests). Their defense has been one of the worst in the league (31st in first down percentage allowed), but their offense ranks first in first down percentage, carrying this team. They might not have the best offense in the league all season and their defense is one of the least talented in the league and figures to continue struggling, but it appears the Falcons will be a playoff contender and a tough opponent all season.

Last week’s 48-33 home victory over the Carolina Panthers was easily their most impressive performance of the season, as they were winning big even before Carolina quarterback Cam Newton got knocked out with a concussion. However, they may have trouble following that up, as teams are 52-75 ATS since 2012 off of a win as home underdogs. That’s likely because teams are overconfident and overvalued off of a big home win like that. I can’t say for sure they’re overconfident, but they seem overvalued as mere 4 point underdogs in Denver. That line suggests the Broncos are only about a point better than the Falcons on a neutral field, which is not true. The Falcons have a strong offense, but the Broncos are a much more complete team.

There are two reasons why I’m not confident enough to put money on Denver though. One is the fact that they have to turn around and go to San Diego for Thursday Night Football next week. The Chargers are far from a tough opponent, but having to play 2 games in 5 days is always tough for teams. In fact, favorites are 50-74 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football. The second reason is the injury to quarterback Trevor Siemian, who will miss this game with a bad shoulder. Siemian is one of the reasons why they’ve been as good as they have been offensively thus far this season, even on a run first team. Instead, first round pick Paxton Lynch will start. He didn’t look bad last week in relief of Siemian and actually might have more long-term upside than Siemian, but he came into the league very raw and this is probably earlier than they’d like him to play. He gets a very easy defense to start his career though and the Broncos should be the right side.

Denver Broncos 24 Atlanta Falcons 17

Pick against the spread: Denver -4

Confidence: Low

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New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns: 2016 Week 5 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (3-1) at Cleveland Browns (0-4)

Tom Brady is back from his 4-game suspension and the Patriots are healthier than they have been all season around him, especially with Rob Gronkowski looking like he’s finally healthy enough to be a factor in the passing game, after largely blocking for a conservative offense the past two weeks with a bad hamstring and a rookie quarterback under center. The Patriots do not figure to be nearly as conservative with Brady back and he has plenty of weapons around him to torch a Cleveland defense that’s one of the worst in the entire league.

However, this just feels like a trap game from a bettor’s standpoint. It’s possible it takes Brady a week or so to get back into a rhythm and it’s possible that his teammates relax a little with him back and don’t play as well as they’ve been playing with him out. Cleveland is a weak opponent, but the Patriots are whopping 11 point favorites here on the road and everyone and their brother is betting on them looking to make some easy money in Tom’s return. This might be a huge win for the sportsbooks. I can’t bet anything on the Browns, especially since Bill Belichick is 44-24 ATS off of a loss since he took over as head coach of the Patriots, but I’d pick them if I had to.

New England Patriots 27 Cleveland Browns 17

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +11

Confidence: None

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Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams: 2016 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (2-2) at Los Angeles Rams (3-1)

Both of these teams had rough starts and then came roaring back. The Bills dropped their first two games, including a home loss on Thursday night to the divisional rival Jets, but fired their offensive coordinator after week 2 and seem to have woken the team up, as they’ve defeated the Cardinals and Patriots in underdog fashion in each of the last 2 weeks. What once looked like an 0-4 start and Rex Ryan’s firing is now a 2-2 start and a team right back in the playoff mix. The Rams, meanwhile, got annihilated on Monday Night Football week 1 28-0 by the lowly 49ers, but have since bounced back to win their last 3 games, including a home game against Seattle week 2 and a game in Arizona last week. Those are their two biggest division rivals.

However, the Bills 2-2 record is more legitimate than the Rams’ 3-1 record is. The Rams 3 wins have come by a combined 15 points and they still have a negative -13 point differential on the season. In fact, in none of their 3 victories did they win the first down percentage battle. Last week, they were able to beat the Cardinals by 4 despite allowing 12 more first downs than the Cardinals did, thanks to a +4 turnover margin and a late long punt return. Those things are very tough to rely on every week, especially turnover margin. Teams with a turnover margin of +4 in a game, on average, have a turnover margin of +0.0 the following week.

Add in their crushing week 1 loss to a terrible opponent (which can’t be ignored in a season that’s still only had 4 games) and the Rams rank dead last in the league in first down percentage differential despite their 3-1 record and by a wide margin. They rank 32nd in first down percentage, 24th in first down percentage allowed, and their -10.25% differential is significantly worse than 31st place Cleveland, who come in at -5.89%. If the Rams want to continue winning, they’re going to have to play significantly better.

That’s going to be tough this week, as the Rams are expected to be down 3 defensive lineman with injury, as defensive tackle Michael Brockers, defensive end Robert Quinn, and defensive end William Hayes are all on the doubtful side of questionable after not practicing all week. The Rams’ defensive line is easily the strength of an overall underwhelming defense, so those players are a huge loss. The Bills are still without top wide receiver Sammy Watkins and first and second round rookies Shaq Lawson and Reggie Ragland with injury, but they got stud left tackle Cordy Glenn back last week from injury and now get top defensive lineman Marcell Dareus back from a 4-game suspension.

The Bills only rank 24th in first down percentage differential, but they have a major talent advantage in this one. They’re also in a much better spot, as they face the lowly 49ers in Buffalo in arguably the easiest game of their season next week, while the Rams turn around and face another competent team (Detroit) on the road. With an easy game on deck, they should be completely focused for an opponent who might not be. That’s historically been the case, as underdogs are 82-57 ATS since 2012 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. The Bills are the play here.

Buffalo Bills 17 Los Angeles Rams 13 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Buffalo +1

Confidence: Medium

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Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions: 2016 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) at Detroit Lions (1-3)

Coming into the season, I had the Eagles atop my underrated teams list. I bet on them in each of their first 3 games, first as mere 3.5 point home favorites against the lowly Bears, then as 3.5 point road underdogs against the lowly Bears, then as 4 point home underdogs for the Pittsburgh Steelers week 3, prior to their week 4 bye. Not only did the Eagles cover all 3 games, but they covered them easily and actually have the league’s best point differential at +65 (despite only playing 3 games) and rank 1st in the league in first down percentage differential through their first 3 games. They might not finish the season as the league’s best team, but so far that’s what they’ve been.

Now, they no longer seem underrated. After their dominant performance against the Steelers, they come out of their bye as 3.5 point road favorites against a capable Detroit team. Now that they’re no longer underrated, I’m actually going to go the other way. The Eagles have had two weeks to hear about how great they are and the lines have adjusted, as this line was 1 in favor of the Lions last week on the early line (the Lions close upset loss in Chicago likely had something to do with that too). I love fading significant line movements whenever it makes sense, as they tend to be the result of week-to-week overreactions. On top of that, teams like the Eagles who are coming off of a home upset victory tend not to cover the following week, likely because they’re overconfident and overvalued. Teams are 52-75 ATS in that spot since 2012. Despite that, the public is still all over the Eagles and I love fading the public whenever it makes sense as well, as they always lose money in the long run.

The reason this isn’t a bigger play is because of how undermanned the Lions are on defense right now. They’re missing two of their three best defensive players with injury once again (linebacker DeAndre Levy and defensive end Ezekiel Ansah) and it has shown this season. Fortunately, their offense has remained strong and, even if this game isn’t close for most of the game, I like their chances of a late backdoor cover if they’re down by 10 late. As long as this line is higher than 3, I think it’s worth putting money on. About 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal and about 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less. The Eagles are a good team, but not as good as they’ve looked so far, so I like getting 3.5 with the Lions at home.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Detroit Lions 23

Pick against the spread: Detroit +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins: 2016 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (1-3) at Miami Dolphins (1-3)

The Dolphins are 3.5 point favorites here at home against the Titans, but have a much tougher game on deck, as they have to turn around and host the Pittsburgh Steelers. The early line has them as 4.5 point underdogs. Teams are 51-95 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 4, including 7-19 ATS as favorites, as tough upcoming home games tend to serve as a distraction. Meanwhile, the Titans turn around and host the Browns in arguably the easiest game of their season, a game in which they’re expected to be 5.5 point favorites. With an easy game on deck, they should be completely focused for an opponent who might not be. That’s historically been the case, as underdogs are 82-57 ATS since 2012 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs.

The Titans are also in their second of two road games, which helps. Teams are 131-98 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 106-66 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 231-233 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.53 points per game, as opposed to 331-451 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.81 points per game.

As long as this line is 3.5, this is my Pick of the Week. About 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer, including 1 in 6 games by exactly 3 points. Because of the frequency of 3-point games, this line suggests the Dolphins are a significantly better team than the Titans, which I don’t agree with. This line should be 3 at the most, before you even take into account all of the situational factors involved in this game and the fact that the Dolphins have had little to no homefield advantage in recent years (5-12 ATS at home since 2014, including 3-8 ATS as home favorites). I actually have the Titans as a little bit better than the Dolphins, who could easily be 0-4 right now if not for 3 missed field goals in regulation by the Browns week 3. The Titans are a big play and the money line at +150 isn’t a bad idea either, since this game seems like at least a toss up. Worst case scenario, it’s tough to see the Dolphins winning by more than a field goal.

Tennessee Titans 17 Miami Dolphins 16 Upset Pick +150

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings: 2016 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (3-1) at Minnesota Vikings (4-0)

The Vikings are the NFC’s only 4-0 team (the Eagles are 3-0), on the strength of a +10 turnover margin and a +3 return touchdown margin. That’s very impressive, but it’s also unsustainable. In fact, there’s almost no week-to-week correlation in turnover margins; teams that have strong turnover margins in one week are just as likely to have poor turnover margins the following week as any other team. If the Vikings are going to continue winning, they’re going to have to play better and won’t be able to rely on the turnover margin.

The offense is the side of the ball with the most need for improvement, as they rank 30th in offensive first down percentage. Both with and without Adrian Peterson, they’ve struggled to run the ball, largely as a result of an offensive line that has been very shaky and is missing both week 1 starting offensive tackles with injury, Matt Kalil and Andre Smith. They’re not in a good spot to improve offensively this week, as Houston enters with the 2nd best defense in the league in terms of first down percentage allowed. The Texans haven’t faced a tough schedule so far and are not the same unit without JJ Watt, but the Vikings are expected to be without top wide receiver Stefon Diggs with injury. Without him, the Vikings are very weak at the wide receiver position. There’s just not a lot of talent around Sam Bradford on this offense right now.

The Texans, meanwhile, get left tackle Duane Brown back from injury after the talented blindside protector missed the first 4 games of the season with a quad injury. He’ll be a boost to an offense that has ranked 31st in offensive first down percentage thus far this season, though the Vikings’ defense is a very tough matchup. Even without defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd, who is injured, the Vikings rank 6th in first down percentage allowed, despite a pair of early games against the Packers and Panthers.

Both teams have weak offenses and strong defenses and they’re much more even than this line suggests. Especially in what figures to be a low scoring affair, getting 7 points is a dream. I wouldn’t put this line any higher than 4. The Texans are better than the Giants, against whom the Vikings were just 5 point favorites last week with a healthy Stefon DIggs. The one thing that prevents this from being my Pick of the Week is the fact that the Vikings are going into a bye. Big favorites tend to take care of business going into a bye, as home favorites of 6 or more are 61-22 ATS before a bye since 2002. However, usually big home favorites are significantly superior to their opponents, which is not the case in this game, as the Vikings do not deserve to be touchdown favorites. It’s a big play.

Minnesota Vikings 16 Houston Texans 13

Pick against the spread: Houston +7

Confidence: High

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Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: 2016 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (1-3) at San Francisco 49ers (1-3)

After last week’s home loss to the Los Angeles Rams, the perception of the Cardinals right now is that the sky is falling for them. However, they’re a couple plays away from being 3-1, as two of their losses came by a combined 6 points. Their one win, meanwhile, came by 33 points. They still have a +12 point differential and rank 3rd in the NFL in first down percentage differential. Losing quarterback Carson Palmer with a concussion is a big loss, but their defense has been their best unit this season (4th in first down percentage allowed), while the offense has been more pedestrian (11th in first down percentage), largely as a result of some early season struggles by Carson Palmer. Drew Stanton is a capable backup at best and a significant downgrade, but the Cardinals still have a ton of talent around the quarterback position on offense, both at the skill positions and on the offensive line.

The 49ers also come in banged up, losing promising rookie DeForest Buckner (the 7th overall pick) for at least this week and middle linebacker NaVorro Bowman for the year. They join top cornerback Jimmie Ward on the sideline. He’ll miss his 2nd straight game. Those might be their three best defensive players. They do get top pass rusher Aaron Lynch back from a 4-game suspension, but he doesn’t offset the loss of the other guys. The 49ers already have one of the worst offenses in football and now might have one of the worst defenses in football, after it showed promise to start the season. Live will be as easy as possible for Stanton in his spot start, as his offensive supporting cast is far more talented than San Francisco’s defense. It’s a short week, which is tough, but he’s a veteran guy with experience in the system. And in the fact that the Cardinals’ defense figures to shut down Blaine Gabbert and company on a short week and the Cardinals figure to get back in the win column this week.

However, we’re not getting nearly as good of a line as I thought we would. The early line was 6 last week and I figured it would move significantly, with the Cardinals losing at home and Palmer getting knocked out, but it’s still at 3.5. That’s not a small line movement, but 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer, so I’d be worried about the backdoor cover with Arizona, even in a low scoring game. The 49ers are also in a good spot as home underdogs off of a loss as home underdogs, as teams are 78-53 ATS in that spot since 2002. The Cardinals are the pick, but I don’t recommend putting money on it.

Arizona Cardinals 17 San Francisco 49ers 10

Pick against the spread: Arizona -3.5

Confidence: Low

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