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Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, Ravens, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (2-0) at Baltimore Ravens (1-1)

The Ravens have been one of the premier home teams in the NFL over the past few seasons, going 24-3 at home since 2010. As a result, they’ve only been underdogs at home a grand total of twice in that time frame, losing once at home to Peyton Manning and the Broncos last season and then winning once at home as dogs last year against the Giants, after they had previously lost 3 straight. Given that, I don’t think the Texans deserve to be favored in Baltimore.

The Texans have not played well thus far this year, barely beating both Tennessee and San Diego. They won 12 games last year, but were not nearly as good as that would have suggested. Their Pythagorean Expectation was that of a 10 win team as they went 5-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less. They also faced a very easy schedule, recovered an unsustainable high percentage of fumbles that hit the ground, and played their worst football down the stretch, which might have carried over somewhat into this season. They finished last year 11th in overall DVOA and 19th in weighted DVOA, which puts a higher weight on their later games.

That’s not the type of team that deserves to be favored in Baltimore, especially since left tackle Duane Brown, one of the best in the NFL, probably won’t play. Ray Rice, meanwhile, won’t suit up for the Ravens, but it’s much easier to replace him with talented backup Bernard Pierce than to replace one of the game’s premier blindside protectors with Derek Newton.

The trends also favor the Ravens. They are home dogs here before being road favorites next week in Buffalo. Teams are 55-34 ATS since 2002 in that situation. Meanwhile, the Texans are road favorites before being home dogs next week when Seattle comes to town. Teams are 37-62 ATS in that situation since 1989 as long as the game is non-divisional.

Put it all together and you get that teams are 6-2 ATS since 1989 as home dogs before being road favorites when their opponent will next be home dogs. I know it’s a very small sample size, but I think the fact that this is only the 9th time this situation has happened in 24 years is telling. The Ravens will be completely focused on this game, while the Texans could be caught looking forward to what they might see as a Super Bowl preview against Seattle next week. There’s a very good chance that Baltimore takes advantage and wins at home. They’re a great home team and Houston is a comparable, but not superior opponent.

Baltimore Ravens 23 Houston Texans 17 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: Baltimore +2.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, Browns, Uncategorized, Vikings

Cleveland Browns (0-2) at Minnesota Vikings (0-2)

This line has had tremendous line movement this week, going from -3.5 at the beginning of the week to -7 now. That’s significant as 23% of NFL games are decided by between 4-7 points. Why such a big shift? Well, Brandon Weeden has been ruled out with injury and Trent Richardson has been traded. However, I’m not sure losing Weeden is such a big deal. He’s completed just 54.7% of his passes for an average of 6.0 YPA, 1 touchdown, and 3 interceptions while leading the Browns to a grand total of 16 points through 2 games.

Brian Hoyer could completely bomb, but he also completed 56.6% of his passes for an average of 6.2 YPA, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions last season against Chicago and San Francisco, two of the better defenses in the NFL. I think it’s highly unlikely he’s a significant downgrade from Weeden. If anything, he could be better with Josh Gordon returning from suspension. Gordon was fantastic last season considering his quarterback situation, that he was rookie, and that he hadn’t really played football in 2 years. He caught 50 passes for 805 yards and 5 touchdowns on 89 targets and 506 routes run (1.58 yards per route run). Browns quarterbacks had a 90.9 QB rating when throwing to him, over 18 points better than their overall QB rating.

Richardson’s loss is bigger. He’s been one of the most elusive backs in the NFL over his first two years in the league in terms of breaking tackles and picking up yards after first contact, but from a production standpoint, his 3.5 career YPC isn’t going to be that hard to replace, especially if they get better offensive line play. Billed as one of the sneaky good offensive lines in the NFL coming in the season, the Browns’ offensive line has definitely struggled thus far this season, but they will have all 5 starters healthy this week for the first time all season.

There’s really no reason why the Vikings should be favored by a whole touchdown over them, but the public is so scared off of them. That’s giving us line value. The Vikings should not really be favored by a whole touchdown over anyone, except probably Jacksonville. They are one of eight 0-2 teams, but their problems go deeper than that. Their week 1 loss by 10 points was just one of 4 games decided by more than a touchdown that week, one of 10 decided by more than a touchdown so far this season. They could have lost by a lot more considering they were outgained 28 to 16 in first downs and 467 to 330 in total yards. Last week, they only lost by one, but they did so despite winning the turnover battle, which only happens about 21% of the time. They can rely on that going forward.

Overall on the season, they are converting just 68.6% of 1st and 10s for a subsequent set of downs, as opposed to 78.8% for their opponents, a differential that is 28th in the NFL ahead of only these Browns (who aren’t far behind them at 29th), Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, and Jacksonville. I had them winning just 5 games at the beginning of the season and they have shown me no reason to change that prediction. Given that, they do not deserve to be favored by a touchdown here.

One of the most powerful trends in betting is known as the six and six trend, meaning teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 25-69 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend. One, it’s very rare (it only happened 7 times all last season, going 2-5 ATS). Two, it’s even rarer that a situation will come up in which you can confidently use the trend. The Eagles were 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland last year week1 (they didn’t cover), but there was at the time there was no way to know that the Eagles would finish 6-10 or worse. The Vikings may or may not finish with that poor of a record, but that trend is still relevant to this game.

They’re also in a rough situation playing their home opener during week 3. Since 1989, teams that have played their week 3 game at home after starting the season with back to back road games are just 20-40 ATS. Starting the year on the road like that takes so much out of you and they could also coast now that they’re at home, especially since they have an easier opponent. They could have a very hard time focusing at home for the lowly non-conference Browns after playing tough games in Detroit and Chicago, both divisional foes. After this game, they play in London against the Steelers. They could be looking forward to that.

There is also another trend that favors the Browns. They are road dogs after a road loss, a situation teams are 88-52 ATS since 2008 and have historically covered in about 65% of the time, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample. I like Cleveland a good deal to cover this week, especially with all of the close games that have happened early on this season. Their defense should make this one tight and I really don’t trust Christian Ponder to cover this big of a spread.

Minnesota Vikings 17 Cleveland Browns 16

Pick against spread: Cleveland +7

Confidence: High

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Why The Redskins Should Not Change Their Name

stevenlourie Commanders, Uncategorized

Arguably the biggest social debate in the NFL is the one surrounding the controversy over the Washington Redskins’ name. An old and once dead debate has been brought to the forefront in recent months, thanks to everything from journalists and media networks refusing to refer to the Redskins by their name to even 10 members of congress sending letters to the NFL about the subject.

The controversy is over the fact that the word “Redskin” is traditionally a racial slur used against Native Americans. However, in today’s world, the word is much more commonly associated with the football team than the slur. Words change their meaning over time, largely for cultural reasons. For instance, the word “faggot” has been culturally defined as everything from a slur against women, the elderly, and in today’s English, against homosexuals. And, of course, its original meaning was a bundle of sticks.

Words only mean what society believes they mean. The Redskins’ name has, perhaps inadvertently, largely changed the definition of the word from something negative to something not negative. That’s a good thing. Bringing up this old debate only serves to take us backwards and transform the word back into its original meaning. That needs to stop.

This isn’t to say that the word “Redskin” isn’t still offensive to some people in some contexts and NFL commissioner Roger Goodell played off that by saying that “if one person’s offended, we have to listen.” However, I think his argument is tremendously flawed. For example, consider the case of Robert “Two Eagles” Green, a retired chief of the 1300-member Patawomeck Tribe. He says that, “frankly, the members of my tribe, the vast majority, don’t find it offensive.” In fact, he goes on to say that, “to be honest with you, I would be offended if they DID change it.” And that’s the flaw with catering to everything any person finds offensive. It’s impossible. There is no possible way to cater to both people who find the name offensive and people who would find a name change offensive.

For that reason, it’s important to know how many Native Americans actually find the name offensive. Robert “Two Eagles” Green notes that the vast majority of his 1300-member tribe doesn’t, but it’s important to have a concrete, tangible number behind that. Well, according to an Annenberg Public Policy Center poll, over 90% of Native Americans DO NOT find the name offensive. That’s a pretty powerful number.

ESPN columnist Rick Reilly mentions this statistic in his article about the subject and brings up a bunch of other very good examples. He mentions three High Schools where Native Americans are the majority, including a High School in Arizona whose student body is 99.3% Native Americans, who actually use “Redskins” as their own school mascot. He notes that the vast majority of these students does not find anything offensive about the name and wear it with pride as any High School would. This is because the word simply does not mean what it used to mean. That’s a good thing. Why is anyone trying to change that?

It seems the vast majority of the people who are actually “offended” by the term are media and political types, largely white, who seem to want to get offended on the Native Americans’ behalf, like they can’t possibly know well enough to get offended on their own. I personally find THAT offense. Maybe if I wrote a letter to Roger Goodell, he would have to listen to me. After all, I am one person.

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2013 Week 3 Fantasy Football Pickups

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Pickups, Uncategorized

RB James Starks (Green Bay)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.2%

James Starks is going to get the start this week with Eddie Lacy out with a concussion. Starks exploded for 132 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries after Lacy went down early last week, along with 4 catches for 36 yards. He’s not fortunate enough to play the Redskins’ defense every week and Cincinnati this week represents a much tougher defensive test, but he’s still worth a flex play for this week if you need someone for that.

WR Eddie Royal (San Diego)

Percent owned (ESPN): 4.4%

Eddie Royal somehow has 5 touchdowns in 2 games. That won’t continue, but he also has 10 catches for 114 receiving yards and will continue to be a preferred target for Philip Rivers, especially with Malcom Floyd out at least a week and possibly longer with a neck injury. Royal is worth a pickup.

TE Coby Fleener (Indianapolis)

Percent owned (ESPN): 5.4%

Fleener had a big game with 4 catches for 69 yards and a touchdown against the Dolphins last week and earned the coaching staff’s praise after the game. Even better news for his fantasy value, Dwayne Allen, who was working as the starting tight end for his blocking ability, is out for the season so Fleener should be as close to an every down player as a tight end can be going forward.

QB Ryan Tannehill (Miami)

Percent owned (ESPN): 7.9%

Tannehill has completed 47 of 72 for 591 yards, 2 touchdowns, and an interception in the first two weeks of the season and could be on his way to a much improved 2nd season in the NFL. With bye weeks coming up, Tannehill is worth adding as a QB2, especially for teams whose quarterbacks have a bye week 4. Tannehill gets a New Orleans defense that is still very susceptible to giving up big fantasy days week 4.

WR Marlon Brown (Baltimore)

Percent owned (ESPN): 7.9%

Marlon Brown continues to work as the starter in Jacoby Jones’ absence and is putting up decent numbers. He has 8 catches for 110 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2 games. He’s worth a look in deeper leagues.

TE Charles Clay (Miami)

Percent owned (ESPN): 5.0%

Charles Clay had a big game against Indianapolis with 5 catches for 107 yards and the collegiate fullback also stole a goal line carry and scored on a one yard rush. He won’t get to play Indianapolis’ defense every week and he probably won’t continue stealing goal line carries, but he also had 5 catches for 54 yards the week before so he could be worth a look.

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Cleveland Browns trade RB Trent Richardson to the Indianapolis Colts for a 2014 1st round pick

stevenlourie Browns, Colts, Uncategorized

Trade for Browns: This is one of the most bizarre trades in NFL history. Richardson is only the second player in NFL history to be drafted in the top-3 and then play for a different team in NFL history. The other player is John Matuszak in 1974, who was traded a year after being drafted first overall because he had tried to play in the now defunct World Football League in addition to the NFL. The Browns are trading a player who was the 3rd overall pick in the draft in 2012 for a first round pick in 2014 that has a good chance to be outside of the top-10. It’s the football equivalent of buying something for a dollar and then immediately selling it for 75 cents. Richardson hasn’t broken out yet, but he’s dealt with injury and a poor supporting cast and he still has a far better chance of being a special player than anyone the Browns are going to get with the pick from the Colts.

At the same time, this trade does make some sense. The Browns are going nowhere this year and while Richardson could be a special talent, it would be at one of the league’s most replaceable positions. What the Browns desperately need is a quarterback and this trade helps them acquire a franchise quarterback in two ways. It weakens them in the short term so maybe instead of drafting 5th-8th like they do every year, they’ll get a top-2 pick. And it also gives them more ammunition to trade up if they don’t get a pick high enough to draft someone like Teddy Bridgewater. There’s also a better chance the Colts’ pick ends up in the top-10 then you think if they stop being able to pull close victories out of their ass. We’ll see how the addition of Richardson affects that.

Grade: C

Trade for Colts: For the Colts, this was pretty much a no brainer. Running back was a need as Vick Ballard is a short yardage plodder and Ahmad Bradshaw is an injury prone 3rd down specialist. They don’t have anyone anywhere near as good as what Richardson can be and they’re buying him for 75 cents on the dollar. Richardson’s traditional stats don’t look great, but he was 7th in ProFootballFocus’ elusive rating in 2012 because of all the tackles he broke and he is now 1st this season through 2 games. He also is great in pass protection and pass catching. There’s a very good chance he breaks out as a top level back in the NFL on a better offense in Indianapolis and they’ll have him under team control very cheap for the next two seasons. He has a much better chance of being a special player than anyone they could have gotten with their first round pick this year.

Grade: A

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Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Eagles, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-1)

I have some rules for picking Thursday Night Games. I like home teams, particularly favorites, and particularly non-divisional favorites. This is a variety of reasons. I like home teams because you need all the time you can get on a short week and, if you have to travel, that cuts into that precious time. I like favorites because they tend to be more experienced, veteran teams who aren’t as fazed by the short week. And I like when a team is home favorites in a non-divisional game because teams aren’t as familiar with each other in that situation and that gives the veteran, home team an even greater edge. Non-divisional home favorites are 29-11 ATS since 1989.

The Eagles are non-divisional home favorites here, but I don’t know if that applies for a few reasons. One, these teams are as familiar with each other as non-divisional teams can be as many of the current Eagles were on the roster last season when Chiefs Head Coach Andy Reid was the Head Coach in Philadelphia. Two, I don’t know that the Chiefs are necessarily less experienced than the Eagles. Three, I don’t know if this line is where it should be with the Eagles favored by 3.5.

The Eagles were exposed last week after a big week 1 with a home loss to the Chargers. Their offense was still good, though not quite as good as the week before when they were facing a terrible Washington defense and when their offense was still a complete mystery. However, their defense was atrocious. They’ve really been atrocious all year, allowing 58 first downs and forcing just 4 punts on the season, but they were able to get by week 1 because they forced 3 turnovers, but they can’t rely on having to get a takeaway to stop a drive.

Their offensive style doesn’t help their defense because, if their offensive drive isn’t successful, it doesn’t give the defense any time to rest. Fortunately, they’ve had 48 first downs to 9 punts offensively, but if the Chiefs (32 first downs allowed, 15 punts forced) can force more punts than the Redskins or Chargers, it’s going to be even worse news for their defense, which seems to allow a score every time they’re on the field. The Chiefs aren’t an incredible offense team (36 first downs, 16 punts) by any measure, but they’re not worse than Washington or San Diego and they haven’t turned it over all season.

The real wild card for this game is how the Eagles’ offensive style will be affected by the short week. Will it be harder to execute all of their no huddle stuff with less time to prepare? Will it be even tougher to stop because the defense had less time to watch time? Will it be even more effective because the defense has had less time to recover from last week? Will the offense be equally tired? Thursday Night Games are usually ugly low scoring games, which I think favors the Chiefs, their strong defense, and their conservative/turnover-avoidant offense, but I’m not confident enough to put much on that. I’d probably avoid it all together if the line were an even field goal.

Kansas City Chiefs 24 Philadelphia Eagles 23 Upset Pick +155

Pick against spread: Kansas City +3.5

Confidence: Low

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San Diego Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 2 NFL Picks, Chargers, Eagles, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (0-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-0)

Chip Kelly’s offense looked very good in its first real test against Washington, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. I’ll need to see it against a better defense. Washington might have the worst secondary in the NFL. I believe the offensive line can’t continue its dominance as long as it’s healthy and that both LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson can continue to be serious weapons in Chip Kelly’s offense, but I need to see Vick make harder difficulty throws. He was throwing to open guys all night. ProFootballFocus agrees, actually grading him below average as a passer for his game. I also have a lot of concerns about this defense and their ability to stop guys even when they can’t force turnovers. It’s a good start, but it’s important to not get ahead of ourselves.

I don’t know if the Chargers are a good defense, but they’re better on that side of the ball than Washington. More importantly, they have a week of tape and a week to prepare so they won’t be caught off guard as much as the Redskins were. It’s unclear how much that will help though, especially with this game being at 1 PM ET, so I don’t really want to bet against the Eagles, but I can’t pick them here. I don’t think they deserve to be favored by a touchdown or more. They could also be caught looking forward to their game against Andy Reid and the Chiefs next Thursday, just 4 days after this one. Favorites are just 5-13 ATS the week before a Thursday Night game since the start of last season.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 San Diego Chargers 23

Pick against spread: San Diego +7

Confidence: None

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Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 2 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Cowboys, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (1-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-0)

After forcing just 16 takeaways last season, the Cowboys forced 6 against the Giants week 1. They won’t do that every week, but it’s just another sign that takeaways are very inconsistent on a year to year basis. They’re also very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis unfortunately for the Cowboys as teams who win the turnover battle by 5 have a turnover margin of -0.4 the following week on average. Their secondary will have to play better next week, but the good news is that injury filler starters Nick Hayden and George Selvie dominated in their first career start. So much for them having no depth. Once Jay Ratliff and Anthony Spencer return, they could have a loaded front. Spencer is expected back this week, though probably in a limited fashion.

Kansas City, meanwhile, apparently really impressed the odds makers last week with their 28-2 win in Jacksonville as this line has shifted from PK to -3 in one week, despite the Cowboys’ strong showing. They certainly looked good last week and I picked them to make the playoffs at the beginning of the season. They have a lot of talent around the quarterback, especially if Dontari Poe keeps this up, and Alex Smith and Andy Reid are infinitely better than Romeo Crennel and Brady Quinn and will stabilize a turnover margin that was a league worst -24 last season. However, we’ve lost all line value with the Chiefs. I also don’t think the Chiefs are the type of team, with Alex Smith under center, capable of beating high quality teams. They have an easy schedule, but this is not one of their easy games.

The Cowboys were one of my pre-season underrated teams too, because of their overall talent level, their new defensive system, and the fact that they wouldn’t be nearly as bad in turnover margin as last season. They won’t win the turnover battle by 5 this week, but they might not need to do so to win here in Kansas City. I don’t think these two teams are equal, as this line suggests. The NFC is just so much better than the AFC. Over the past 2 seasons, the AFC is 6-17 ATS as favorites against the NFC. I’m not going to put anything on it, in case the Cowboys’ can’t fix their secondary problems, but the Cowboys should be the right side.

Dallas Cowboys 17 Kansas City Chiefs 16 Upset Pick +135

Pick against spread: Dallas +3

Confidence: None

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St. Louis Rams at Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 2 NFL Picks, Falcons, Rams, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (1-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-1)

The Falcons lost last week in New Orleans, but now they return home where it’s always been a different story for the Falcons under Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan is 33-7 at home in his career and 24-15 ATS and 21-12 ATS as home favorites. Matt Ryan is also great off a loss, going 17-4 ATS in his career off of a loss. Given that, it’s kind of absurd this line is only -6.

I agree that the Falcons won’t have nearly as good of a record as last season. The Falcons’ 13 wins last year were done largely with smoke and mirrors and in a way that won’t be sustainable into 2013. 7 of those 13 wins came by a touchdown or less as they went 7-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, something that tends to even out in the long run. It’s also unlikely that the Falcons recover 64.3% of fumbles that hit the ground this season. The Falcons also face a tougher schedule in 2013. In 2012, the Falcons faced just 2 playoff teams in the regular season. That’ll be impossible this year playing a first place schedule in the loaded NFC.

The Falcons also lost a lot this off-season. They return just 2 starters in their original spot on an offensive line whose biggest strength was continuity, with the loss of right tackle Tyson Clabo being the biggest. They downgrade from John Abraham to Osi Umenyiora and also lost defensive tackle Vance Walker. The only real addition was the upgrade from the washed up Michael Turner to the almost washed up Steven Jackson at running back. Their week 1 performance supports that projection, but this line is still absurdly low.

The Rams might be just as overrated as the Falcons, possibly more because the odds makers seem to know that the Falcons are overrated. The Rams and Cardinals are very equal teams. The field goal game they played last week just supports that. Like the Cardinals, the Rams will probably finish with 6-7 wins. They went 7-8-1 last season, but I don’t think they match that, even with their increase in talent level.

If they didn’t add all they added this off-season, they would have been even worse. Teams that have big win improvements like the Rams did last season usually regress about half of that improvement the following season. There are unsustainable things about the Rams’ 2012 season. They were 6th in the league in adjusted games lost, meaning they had significantly fewer injuries than the league average. This was a season after they ranked dead last in that category in 2011. They also exceeded their Pythagorean Expectations by a whole win (assuming a half win for the tie) as they were outscored by 49 points on the season and had a Pythagorean Expectation of 6.5 wins, 23rd in the NFL.

The Rams do have talent, but they’re going to have a hard time competing in the NFC. I have a hard time seeing them going into Atlanta and being competitive, but it’s not a high confidence play because of how often the Falcons have been playing close games over the past year or so. Including playoffs, 8 of their 14 wins last season were by a touchdown or less. That scares me, even with the line only at -6. I’d be more confident at -5.5 The Falcons should be the right side though.

Atlanta Falcons 27 St. Louis Rams 19

Pick against spread: Atlanta -6

Confidence: None

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