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San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 2 NFL Picks, 49ers, Seahawks, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (1-0) at Seattle Seahawks (1-0)

I feel like I talk about the Seahawks’ home/road disparity every week. Going back to 2007, they are 16-37 on the road, getting outscored by 6.42 points per game, and 32-18 at home, outscoring opponents by 6.32 points per game. They are 34-15 ATS at home in that span. Last week, they had a very impressive win in Carolina. It might not seem like a 5 point win over the Panthers is that impressive, but if the Panthers are as good as I think they are, it is, especially in Carolina at 1 PM ET.

It’s very possible they’ve carried over their strong finish to last season, in which they were better both home and away, finishing 7-1 in the regular season, including road wins in Chicago and a road blowout win in Buffalo. If that’s true, they’re going to be near impossible to beat at home, even for San Francisco. Last year at home, they outscored opponents by 18.5 points per game (30.4-11.9), beating 4 eventual playoff teams. During their 7-1 stretch last season, they had wins of 28-7, 58-0, 50-17, and 42-13 at home, the latter of which was actually against San Francisco.

The big reason for their improvement in their past 11 games, including last year’s playoffs, has been the play of Russell Wilson, who shook off a slow start to his rookie season and now is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. In his last 11 games, including playoffs, he’s completed 187 of 278 (67.3%) for 2544 yards (9.2 YPA), 20 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions.

Because of the Seahawks’ home dominance, this line should be at least -6, which would suggest that these two teams are even (which is being conservative if Seattle is really as good as they’ve looked in their last 11 games), but that Seattle has an absurd home field advantage that’s worth at least 6 points, which historical and recent data suggests is the case. Instead, the line is at -2.5. I’m not betting against Seattle at home, especially during a week in which they are going to attempt to set the World Record for loudest stadium. This is actually my Pick of the Week.

Seattle Seahawks 27 San Francisco 49ers 13

Pick against spread: Seattle -2.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 2 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Raiders, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) at Oakland Raiders (0-1)

One of the most powerful trends in betting is known as the six and six trend, meaning teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 25-69 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend. One, it’s very rare (it only happened 7 times all last season, going 2-5 ATS). Two, it’s even rarer that a situation will come up in which you can confidently use the trend. The Eagles were 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland last year week1 (they didn’t cover), but there was at the time there was no way to know that the Eagles would finish 6-10 or worse.

This is a situation where I think we can safely say that a team is going to go 6-10 or worse with the Raiders favored by 6 points here at home against the Raiders. Sure, the Raiders kept it close with the Colts last week, hanging within 4 points on the road of a team that went 11-5 last year. However, that’s a little misleading. The Colts won 7 games by 7 points or fewer against 7 win or worse teams last season. They’re not as good as their record suggests. That included the 2-14 2012 Chiefs and they also lost to the 2-14 2012 Jaguars. The Raiders’ near win in Indianapolis is not a sign that they won’t be as bad as everyone thought they would be at the beginning of the season.

The Jaguars aren’t good either. In fact, these are probably the two worst teams in football and by a wide margin, but the Raiders don’t deserve to be favored by 6+ against anyone. If you played this game under perfectly normal circumstances 100 times, the Raiders would probably win on average by about 3 points and this line should be -3 (which would suggest that these teams are equal and that Oakland is at home). However, these aren’t perfectly normal circumstances. The Raiders are also in a bad spot as favorites of 3 or more are 19-40 ATS since 1989 after being dogs of 7+ and before being dogs of 7+. Not only do the Raiders not deserve to be big favorites here, they also could view this as a breather week, especially after last week and especially with a trip to Denver on the horizon next week.

The Jaguars also are upgrading their quarterback situation this week, though not by their decision as Blaine Gabbert is out with injury. Gabbert was miserable last week in a 28-2 home loss, completing just 16 of 35 for 121 yards and 2 interceptions without a score, but even worse is that just 22 of his yards came through the air. The rest were after the catch. Chad Henne isn’t great either, but he was a noticeable upgrade last season, completing 53.9% of his passes for an average of 6.8 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, while Gabbert completed 58.3% of his passes for an average of 6.0 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions.

Henne is at least capable of getting the ball to #1 receiver Cecil Shorts, who managed just 4 catches for 30 yards last week because of Blaine Gabbert under center and Brandon Flowers draped all over him. He doesn’t have either of these things this week as the Raiders’ secondary is one of the worst in the NFL and Henne is under center. In 6 starts in which Cecil Shorts and Chad Henne started together last season, Shorts caught 35 passes for 532 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Finally, the Jaguars are in a good spot coming off such a poor performance last week. Teams are 39-25 ATS since 1989 after games in which they either didn’t score or only scored on a safety like the Jaguars did last week. Teams tend to be undervalued and overlooked in this situation. The Jaguars are certainly undervalued as 6 point underdogs against a horrible Oakland team. I’m pretty confident in the Jaguars covering this week.

Oakland Raiders 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 23

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +6

Confidence: High

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New York Jets at New England Patriots: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 2 NFL Picks, Jets, Patriots, Uncategorized

New York Jets (1-0) at New England Patriots (1-0)

I have some rules for picking Thursday Night Games. I like home teams, particularly favorites, and particularly non-divisional favorites. This is a variety of reasons. I like home teams because you need all the time you can get on a short week and, if you have to travel, that cuts into that precious time. I like favorites because they tend to be more experienced, veteran teams who aren’t as fazed by the short week. And I like when a team is home favorites in a non-divisional game because teams aren’t as familiar with each other in that situation and that gives the veteran, home team an even greater edge.

Non-divisional home favorites are 29-11 ATS , including 12-2 ATS as non-divisional home favorites of a touchdown or more. This is a non-divisional game here so it doesn’t meet the qualifications, but we can still apply the logic. I would much rather take Tom Brady/Bill Belichick at home on a short week than Geno Smith/Rex Ryan on the road on a short week, especially considering well the Patriots do against rookie quarterbacks (14-4).

I also think this line is an overreaction to last week. The Patriots are 11.5 point favorites here at home, which is essentially what they were last week in Buffalo. I don’t think the Jets are significantly better than the Bills so this is what I call an overreaction line. Of course, the Patriots didn’t cover last week in Buffalo, but that’s where the overreaction comes from.

The Patriots didn’t look good week 1, but they still won despite losing the turnover battle, the only team in the NFL to do so this week. Teams that lose the turnover battle only win 21% of the time, so that’s impressive, even against the Bills. I don’t expect turnovers to be a huge issue going forward. I care more about the Patriots’ 431 yards and 26 first downs than their turnovers. Besides, there’s no shame in failing to cover as double digit road favorites. Going back to 2011, double digit road favorites are just 1-9 ATS, while 7.5+ road favorites are 2-16 ATS. It’ll be a different story at home.

I also expect the Patriots to have a chip on their shoulder in this game after what happened last week. Good news: Tom Brady is very good after games where he doesn’t play well, regardless of outcome. After games in which he has 16 or more incompletions, Tom Brady is 26-14 ATS, including 18-5 ATS off a win. If the Patriots weren’t missing Shane Vereen and Danny Amendola, this would be a stronger confidence pick, but we lost some line value because the line didn’t really move when those two were ruled out.

New England Patriots 31 New York Jets 10 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: New England -11.5

Confidence: Low

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Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#1)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Seahawks, Uncategorized

It might not seem like a 5 point win over the Panthers is that impressive, but if the Panthers are as good as I think they are, it is, especially in Carolina at 1 PM ET. The Seahawks have a very easy home schedule this year (San Francisco this week is their only home test) and they could easily go 8-0 at home again. That’s 9 wins right there. All they would have to do is go 3-4 in their other 7 road games to get to 12 wins, which could get them the #1 seed and home field, which would make them near impossible to stop. Their biggest competition is the 49ers, who they play this week. If they can’t win the division, they’ll have to win 4 away from Seattle to win the Super Bowl. It’d be a huge difference for this team.

Week 1 Studs

None

Week 2 Duds

RB Marshawn Lynch

LOLB KJ Wright

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San Francisco 49ers: 2013 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#2)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, 49ers, Uncategorized

The only reason the 49ers aren’t #1 is because they lost the Super Bowl last season. no team has lost the Super Bowl and come back to win it the following season in over 40 years. No reigning Super Bowl loser has even made the Super Bowl the following season since the early 90s Bills. It’s why I didn’t pick the Patriots last season. It’s very physically and mentally tough to come back from that. Their victory over the Packers was impressive though.

Week 1 Studs

WR Anquan Boldin

Week 1 Duds

LOLB Ahmad Brooks

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New England Patriots: 2013 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#3)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Patriots, Uncategorized

The Patriots didn’t look good week 1, but they still won despite losing the turnover battle, the only team in the NFL to do so this week. Teams that lose the turnover battle only win 21% of the time, so that’s impressive, even against the Bills. I don’t expect turnovers to be a huge issue going forward and their young receiving corps has nowhere to go but up at this point. I care more about the Patriots 431 yards and 26 first downs than their turnovers. There’s not enough for me to change my AFC Championship projection for them.

Week 1 Studs

RB Shane Vereen

LT Nate Solder

RT Sebastian Vollmer

LG Logan Mankins

WR Danny Amendola

DT Vince Wilfork

Week 1 Duds

LOLB Jerod Mayo

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Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#4)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Broncos, Uncategorized

Peyton Manning had the game of his life, but that’s all it was: the game of his life. He’s not suddenly a better quarterback than he was the week before. Great quarterbacks do amazing things sometimes. Tom Brady opened with 500+ yards a couple of seasons ago. It’s incredible to watch, but it shouldn’t change how we view them. We’ll see how the Broncos do going forward.

Week 1 Studs

QB Peyton Manning

WR Demaryius Thomas

LE Shaun Phillips

SS Duke Ihenacho

CB Chris Harris

Week 1 Duds

LT Ryan Clady

WR Eric Decker

DT Mitch Unrein

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Carolina Panthers: 2013 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#5)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Panthers, Uncategorized

I’m not changing the Panthers as my pick to go from out of the playoffs to a first round bye after they played tough a Seahawks team that could easily win the Super Bowl. Their defense looked as dominant as I expected, particularly the front 7, even further fortified by the addition of Star Lotulelei. However, their offense didn’t look good, even against a tough Seattle defense. The Panthers admit their game plan was too conservative and it really was as they frequently eschewed 4th and 1 chances and just 6 of Newton’s 23 attempts went 10+ yards downfield. That’s not even close to how you best utilize Cam Newton. I’ll give them another chance and I like how the coaching staff admitted their mistake, but if they don’t live up to their talent, it’ll be because of the Ron Rivera/Mike Shula combination. That would leave the door open for the Saints or Lions to go from the playoffs to a first round bye. All of the NFC teams are going to beat up on each other and 11 wins could get you a first round bye.

Week 1 Studs

RE Greg Hardy

DT Star Lotulelei

Week 1 Duds

LG Chris Scott

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Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#6)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Packers, Uncategorized

The good news for the Packers is they won’t face the 49ers every week. They’ll still win 10-12 games and be in the mix in the NFC. But it has to be concerning the way Jim Harbaugh has destroyed Dom Capers in the coaching part of the game 3 times in 2 years. There are no guarantees the Packers won’t have to face the 49ers again in the post-season. If that happens, the Packers will have to game plan better and hope that the 49ers eventually tire out as reigning Super Bowl runner ups like the Patriots did last year. The Packers should also have key secondary contributors Morgan Burnett and Casey Hayward back by then.

Week 1 Studs

WR Jordy Nelson

Week 1 Duds

LG Josh Sitton

RG TJ Lang

SS Jerron McMillian

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Dallas Cowboys: 2013 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#7)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Cowboys, Uncategorized

After forcing just 16 takeaways last season, the Cowboys forced 6 against the Giants week 1. They won’t do that every week, but it’s just another sign that takeaways are very inconsistent on a year to year basis. They’re also very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis unfortunately for the Cowboys as teams who win the turnover battle by 5 have a turnover margin of -0.4 the following week on average. Their secondary will have to play better next week, but the good news is that injury filler starters Nick Hayden and George Selvie dominated in their first career start. So much for them having no depth. Once Jay Ratliff and Anthony Spencer return, they could have a loaded front.

Week 1 Studs

RE DeMarcus Ware

LE George Selvie

DT Jason Hatcher

DT Nick Hayden

SS Barry Church

Week 1 Duds

RG Mackenzy Bernadeau

CB Morris Claiborne

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