By Eric Karkovack

Growing up as (most likely) the only Saints fan in my Pennsylvania hometown, I quickly realized that my favorite team had virtually no national profile.  They weren’t the team regularly featured on SportsCenter.  I was lucky to get a box score of the previous week’s game in our local paper.  Even the official NFL merchandise catalog contained a precious few Saints items. 

My, how times have changed.

Unless you’ve been hiding under a rock for the past year, it’s been hard to lose sight of the Saints.  Not only are they featured prominently in several NFL ads, but the team is in high demand with corporate sponsors as well.  Just a few weeks ago, a Verizon commercial came out depicting a Saints vs. Jets matchup in the middle of the woods.

NBC’s Today Show broadcast live from New Orleans in anticipation of the season opener against Minnesota.  Including that game, the Saints will play in 4 primetime games during the 2010 season.  Plus, they’ll visit Dallas on Thanksgiving, their first ever game on turkey day.  I feel like I’m just scratching the surface of their significant appearances.

And, apparently, the NFL and its partners are giving the people what they want:  More Saints!  Their Super Bowl victory against the Indianapolis Colts was the most watched program in American TV history.  And last week’s opener was the highest-rated opening night in NFL history.

Of course, this media frenzy has come partly due to the Super Bowl championship.  But you could see the seeds being planted back in 2006.  That’s when the Saints returned to New Orleans after the devastation of Hurricane Katrina the previous year.

The Saints made it to their first-ever NFC Championship Game, acquired high-profile players in quarterback Drew Brees and running back Reggie Bush.  More importantly, they served as an inspiration for the entire country.

Last year’s championship just sent things into a whole other stratosphere.  The team and city’s story, along with their special relationship, has won the hearts of a lot of people.  Even casual football fans don’t seem to mind smiling at what’s happened to New Orleans and its Saints during this past year.

I also have to credit the entire Saints organization, from owners Tom Benson and Rita Benson LeBlanc, coach Sean Payton and the players themselves led by Drew Brees.  The team’s dedication to community service has made them beloved at home and admired by people all over.

This is a rare combination of off-field tragedy, on-field success and a franchise willing to give something back to its fans.  The result has been something that Saints fans could only dream about for the past 4 decades.

Perhaps the Dallas Cowboys will have to make room for a new “America’s Team”?

http://www.nosreview.com

 

DE/RLB Brandon Graham– Michigan UP

Measuring in at just over 6 feet at his weigh in isn’t good, but he’s making scouts forget about his lack of height, with his play at practice this week. He has a very solid base and looks like a legitimate defensive line player in the NFL. His form against the run needs to be improved, but he has shown great speed rushing moves in addition to being one of the best young bull rushers at the Senior Bowl. If he can impress in coverage, he could be a 1^st round pick as either a defensive end or rush linebacker.

DE/RLB Austin Lane- Murray State UP

First he showed up looking great at his weigh in, weighing in at 265 pounds at 6-6, adding a necessary 8-10 pounds to his frame, and to back that up, he’s looked great ob the field in practice showing that this small school kid can hang with the big boys. He has the athleticism to play rush linebacker in addition to defensive end.

3-4 DE/DT Jared Odrick– Penn State UP

After Suh and McCoy go off the board early, Odrick makes a great case to be the next 3-4 defensive end chosen by displaying great agility, size, and hand use this week. He could also push Brian Price to be the 3^rd defensive tackle chosen as well.

QB Tony Pike– Cincinnati DOWN

Looked like a stick figure at his weigh in and then went out and has easily looked like the worst quarterback at the Senior Bowl this week in practice. He went into the Senior Bowl with the potential to go in the 2^nd round. Now, I think he’s looking at the 3^rd round.

RLB/ DE Koa Misi- Utah UP

Believe it or not, Misi played defensive end at Utah. You wouldn’t know it from looking at him play linebacker this week in Mobile. He has shown great fluidity in pass coverage and looked like a natural linebacker. He’s also making a lot of nice hits. That definitely helps his stock as he doesn’t have the size to play in the trenches in the NFL.

G Vladimir Ducaase- Massachusetts DOWN

This small school kid with excellent size had a lot of hype surrounding him coming into the week and he has not lived up to it. He has looked like 5 steps slower than every defensive lineman has had been guarding. He’s really having trouble with tougher competition. He’s probably only a guard at the next level rather than a right tackle as some had envisioned him.

S Taylor Mays– USC DOWN

He has only backed up what we’ve seen from him this year. He can’t cover anyone. He doesn’t play the air in the ball and he doesn’t wrap up his tackles. Some have said he may have to move to linebacker at the next level.

NT Cam Thomas- North Carolina UP

With the 3^rd nose tackle slot up for grabs, Thomas has really made his case to be that 3^rd nose tackle. With excellent size at 6-3 325, Thomas has showed that he can also move as well and in his weigh in, he looked much more muscular than fat.

G Mike Iupati- Idaho UP

Unlike Ducasse, this much hyped offensive lineman has really lived up to the hype. He is destroying guys one on one and is making a huge case to be a first round pick lock, which is rare for a guard.

CB Trevard Lindley– Kentucky DOWN

Whether it be his injuries that are still plaguing him or whatever, this is not the same guy we saw at Kentucky in 2007 and 2008. He looked like a stick figure at his weigh in and was 2 inches shorter than what he was listed at in college and he really has looked out matched by almost every wide receiver he has faced this week and has had a really hard time breaking out of the jam at the line of scrimmage, which is not a surprise because of his extreme lack of bulk.

RLB O’Brien Schofield- Wisconsin DOWN

He’s easily had the worst week. First he measured up at 239 pounds at his weigh in, which, for a defensive end, is awful. We already knew he was small and would have to try to move to rush linebacker, which we were unsure of whether or not he would be able to play, and instead of proving he could play his new position this week, he measured up as small even for a rush linebacker. Then, on the first day of practice, he tore his ACL. He still could get drafted as a nickel rusher than Victor Butler did last year because he has talent, but there isn’t going to be a huge market for undersized rush linebackers that have never played the position before and are coming off of a major knee injury. It’s a shame because he has 12 sacks last year as a senior.

RB Charles Scott- LSU DOWN

He has almost had as bad of a week as Schofield, but at least Schofield’s issues, for the most part weren’t his fault. Scott had to skip the Senior Bowl because he failed his physical. That’s a major fail on his part. After a disappointing senior year, he may not get drafted.

CB Devin McCourty- Rutgers UP

Not very big, but he really is scrappy and hustles on the field in a big way. He covers very well and also can kick into a zone style scheme.

CB Brandon Ghee- Wake Forest UP

Looks like the secret’s out, Ghee, who didn’t have huge stats last year, has been extremely impressive as a strong man on man cover guy this week. He could sneak into the 1^st round. 

3-4 DE Alex Carrington– Arkansas State UP 

He has carried his late season momentum into his Senior Bowl week and has stepped up as one of the most dominant defensive line prospects at the Senior Bowl, which is a bit of a surprise because he’s not used to top notch competition. He also has excellent size and athleticism.

OT Sam Young– Notre Dame DOWN 

After measuring in at 305 pounds, 25 less than he was listed, and a very low number for someone trying to make a name for himself as a mauling right tackle, Young has been really bad in practice. His coaches have been yelling at him all week and he’s just not getting the memo.

WR Andre Roberts- Citadel UP 

Another small school kid showing that he can play with the big boys, he may only be 5-11 180, but he’s showing excellent hustle and discipline (going to Citadel a military academy esque school will do that for yoy), but also amazing route running abilities. He doesn’t have elite NFL athleticism, but he’s looking like a mini Wes Welker this week.

WR Taylor Price- Ohio DOWN 

First he measured in at about 3 inches shorter than he was listed, then he has spent a week of practicing dropping seemingly every other pass. He’s shown great flashes and great athleticism, but I can’t see any NFL front office figure, other than Al Davis, draft him in the first 5 rounds.

CB Kyle Wilson– Boise State UP 

Another impressive cornerback, Wilson has shown once again why, before his disappointing senior year, he was a possible 1st round pick. He has probably brought himself back into 2nd round contention with his good Senior Bowl week.  

 

Stanford Routt isn’t a very good cornerback. He may have allowed a mere 51.1% completion percentage last year, but he led the league with 17 penalties committed and 9 touchdowns allowed. 3 years 18 million with only 6 million guaranteed is fair for him, but the Chiefs have more cap space than any team in the league. I would have liked them to at least try to resign Brandon Carr, rather than signing a cheaper, inferior replacement so quickly.

Grade: C 

 

 

Last week overall: 2-0

Last week ATS: 1-1 (+80/+15%)

Overall picks: 174-92 (.654)

ATS Picks: 141-118-7 (+$3040)

Lock picks: 12-5

Upset picks: 35-36 (+1668)

Other: -100 (Seahawks 20:1 to win NFC)

Total Money: $4608

Conference Finals recap: Not much to say. I nailed my 3 unit with Green Bay -3.5 over Chicago and dropped my 2 unit with New York +3.5 over Pittsburgh. I made money and I am still up for the postseason and up over 3K on the season on ATS picks alone. I nailed both straight up picks though, picking Green Bay and Pittsburgh to advance to the Super Bowl. In total, I’m up $4608 on the year. Not too bad for my first year keeping track of money.

Random Notes:

Not only did the Jets lose last week, now it appears they have a quarterback controversy. No, Mark Sanchez isn’t being benched for Mark Brunell. I’m referring to the controversy that will ensue once Brunell realizes Sanchez wiped his boogers on him on the sideline. Click here for video.

However, that controversy pales in comparison to the controversy surrounding the sexual assualt charges filed against Rashard Mendenhall. Roger Goodell was torn on what kind of punishment to give Rashard Mendenhall because, on one hand, he’s a Steeler and there’s nothing Goodell loves more than screwing over the Steelers but on the other hand, that’s exactly what Mendenhall was doing (literally) and an enemy of his enemy is friend. The decision was so difficult to make that Goodell’s head eventually exploded, so it appears there will be no punishment for Mendenhall.

However, both of those two controversies combined are nothing compared to the controversy surrounding Brett Favre’s new commercial. Wanna see my Danny Woodhead?

 

Green Bay Packers 23 Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Spread: -2.5 Green Bay

Pick against spread: Green Bay 5 units

Before I give my pick, back by popular demand it’s the Monday Night Countdown crew. Among some of their “analysis”in the Jets/Pats 45-3 game were the following.

Steve Young: It’s my son Braden’s 10^th birthday and we call him Brady B. The stars are aligned. I’m taking the Pats.

Matt Millen: I think Tom Brady is the best quarterback on the field. I’m taking the Pats.

Keyshawn Johnson: Yo, I gotta lotta love for New York, but I gotta go Pats.

A couple weeks earlier Chris Berman picked the 49ers to beat the Cardinals 19-16 because 1916 was an important year in San Francisco history. A few weeks after that Berman picked the Falcons to beat the Saints because he likes Diet Coke. Mike Ditka has the uncanny ability to tie everything back to how he used to coach in the NFL (in case anyone forgot), while the rest of the gang just says they are picking this team because they are the better team.

Steve Young: My half-cousin twice removed once had a 3 hour layover in Philadelphia, which is closer to Pittsburgh than to Green Bay. The stars are aligned, I’m picking the Steelers.

Matt Millen: I think the Steelers won the Super Bowl in 2008. I’m going with the Steelers. 

Keyshawn Johnson: Yo, I got mad love for Ben Roethlisberger, but I gotta go with the Packers.

Chris Berman: WHOOP! The Steelers won the Super Bowl in 2008. I’m taking the Steelers to win 2000-8. WHOOP! WHOOP! WHOOP!

Tom Jackson: The Steelers offensive line is banged up and good quarterbacks with receiver who can spread the field normally do well against the Steelers. I’m taking the Packers.

Stuart Scott: What Tom said sounds smart. I’m taking Packers.

Mike Ditka: I used to coach the Bears and last week the Packers beat the Bears and made Jay Cutler’s knee hurt a little bit. That’s not very nice. I’m going with the Steelers.

Cris Carter: I think the Packers have the better team. I’m taking the Packers.

I picked the Packers to start the season. I picked the Packers again once my Pats were eliminated. So it should be no surprise I’m picking the Packers here to win. I’m not really paying much attention to the spread. If you think the Packers will win, you think the Packers will win by 3. There’s always a slight chance of a bullshit backdoor cover with a sub 3 spread, but never enough that it should scare you into taking the team you don’t think will win.

That being said, I do have other reasons on why the Packers. Aaron Rodgers won’t be scared by this Steelers’ defense. He was 26-48 for 383 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no picks the last time he faced them, last year, week 15. I’d argue that Rodgers has gotten better since then, and though the Steelers’ pass defense has also improved, Rodgers has improved more than they have.

Ben Roethlisberger is working with one of his most banged up lines ever. That wasn’t the case when these two played last year (though the Packers still managed to sack Ben 5 times). Maurkice Pouncey is questionable for this game, though he says he will absolutely play, but there’s no guarantees at all he’ll be 100%. The Steelers didn’t get any sort of offensive rytyhm in the 2^nd half last week with Pouncey out and they even fumbled on the goal line for a safety on a botched snap.

The combination of Ben’s poor protection and the Packers crazy blitz schemes means that Ben will be going down more than a few times this week. Ben deals with pressure better than any quarterback in the league, though, so while that’s a positive for the Packers, it’s not as big of a positive as it was last week against the Bears.

Another thing I like to do in the Super Bowl is see how both teams do against elite quarterbacks. Super Bowl teams almost always have elite quarterbacks so seeing how each team defends elite quarterbacks is a good measure of how well each team will do defensively. For the sake of this, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger are elite quarterbacks, while Matt Ryan, Michael Vick, and Joe Flacco are borderline elite quarterbacks.

Steelers week 1 vs. Matt Ryan: 27-44 252 yards, no touchdowns, 1 pick

Steelers week 4 vs. Joe Flacco: 24-37 256 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 pick

Steelers week 8 vs. Drew Brees: 34-44 305 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 pick

Steelers week 10 vs. Tom Brady: 30-43 350 yards, 3 touchdowns, no picks

Steelers week 13 vs. Joe Flacco: 17-33 266 yards, 1 touchdown, no picks

Steelers AFC Semis vs. Joe Flacco: 16-30 125 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 pick

Packers week 1 vs. Michael Vick 16-25 175 yards, 1 touchdown, no picks

Packers week 12 vs. Matt Ryan 24-28 197 yards, 1 touchdown, no picks

Packers week 15 vs. Tom Brady 15-24 163 yards, 2 touchdowns, no picks

Packers NFC Wild Card vs. Michael Vick 20-36 292 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 pick

Packers NFC Semis vs. Matt Ryan 20-29 186 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 picks

Steelers Total (without borderlines): 64-87 (74%) 655 yards (7.5), 5 touchdowns, 1 pick

Steelers Total (with borderlines): 148-231 (64%) 1554 yards (6.7), 8 touchdowns, 4 picks

Packers Total (without borderlines): 15-24 (63%) 163 yards (6.8), 2 touchdowns, no picks

Packers Total (with borderlines): 95-142 (67%) 1013 yards (7.1), 5 touchdowns, 3 picks

The results: Fairly inconclusive. The Steelers faced more elites and borderline elites and they threw against them more. They had a slightly better completion percentage allowed for slightly fewer yards per, but a worse TD/INT ratio. They also were burned by both Drew Brees and Tom Brady, while the Packers actually managed to slow Tom Brady. I think the result favor the Packers, but they can be interpreted in either way. It’s also worth noting that more of Green Bay’s experience with elite quarterbacks has been late in the season, so they should be more prepared.

The two teams rank 1-2 in point allowed per game. Let’s see how both teams do against elite defense (top 10 in points per game allowed). Those teams are, in order, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Baltimore, Chicago, Atlanta, NY Jets, New Orleans, New England, Tampa Bay, and San Diego. I will not count Steelers’ results from weeks 1-4 when Ben Roethlisberger was out nor will I count the Packers game against the Patriots, when Aaron Rodgers was out.

Pittsburgh Week 8 vs. New Orleans (7th): 10 points, 279 yards

Pittsburgh Week 10 vs. New England (8th): 26 points, 425 yards

Pittsburgh Week 13 vs. Baltimore (3rd): 13 points, 288 yards

Pittsburgh Week 15 vs. NY Jets (6th): 17 points, 377 yards

Pittsburgh AFC Semis vs. Baltimore (3rd): 31 points, 263 yards

Pittsburgh AFC Finals vs. NY Jets (6th): 24 points, 287 yards 

Green Bay Week 3 vs. Chicago (4th): 17 points, 379 yards

Green Bay Week 8 vs. NY Jets (6th): 9 points, 237 yards

Green Bay Week 12 vs. Atlanta (5th): 17 points, 418 yards

Green Bay Week 17 vs. Chicago (4th): 10 points, 284 yards

Green Bay NFC Semis vs. Atlanta (5th): 48 points, 442 yards

Green Bay NFC Finals vs. Chicago (4th): 21 points, 356 yards

Pittsburgh average ranking played: 5.5

Green Bay average ranking played: 4.7

Pittsburgh average points per game: 20.2

Green Bay average points per game: 20.3

Pittsburgh average yards per game: 319.8

Green Bay average yards per game: 352.7

Green Bay did slightly better offensively against slightly tougher competition, though that 48 point game does skew things a bit. I give Green Bay a moderate advantage in this statistical analysis, as I did in the last one, but again it’s close.

At the end of the day, both teams have good teams that bring pressure and confuse opposing quarterbacks, and can shut down the run and make sure Mendenhall and Starks respectively don’t see much daylight all game. Both teams have stacked receiving corps with a wily veteran (Hines Ward, Donald Driver), and explosive playmaker (Mike Wallace, Greg Jennings), and good depth (Antonio Brown/Emmanuel Sanders, Jordy Nelson/James Jones).

However, I’m going with the Packers because I think they have the better quarterback behind the better line. No offense to Big Ben at all, Aaron Rodgers is just playing better right now. Rodgers didn’t have a great week last week, 17-30 for 244 yards no touchdowns and 2 picks, but one pick wasn’t his fault, he had several drops and he still posted a better line than Big Ben. Ben was 10-19 for 133 yards, no touchdowns, and 2 picks.

Rodgers was amazing going into that Chicago game. Besides that Chicago game, dating back to week 9, Aaron Rodgers is 196 for 269 (72.9%) for 2457 yards (9.1 YPA), 22 touchdowns, and 2 picks. Besides that Chicago game, Rodgers went 77 for 105 for 969 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 1 pick in his first 3 playoff games.

The Packers are the type of team that offensively matches up well with the Steelers. They can spread the field effectively. They can go to a spread offense and that’s the Steelers achilles heel. They couldn’t stop Tom Brady or Drew Brees when they did the same thing this year and remember the Super Bowl two years ago. Kurt Warner and company didn’t win, but they played so well once they went spread that they could have easily won if they had played that way the whole game.

Going to a spread forces the Steelers to either move James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley or to take them out of the game completely to avoid them being matched up against a receiver. They then won’t be able to rely on their pass rush as much and will be forced to rely on corner play, which is the weakness of their defense. That’s what the Patriots and Saints and 2008 Cardinals did. The Packers do that almost as well as anyone in the game.

Anothing thing you can’t forget, this is a dome game and the Packers’ offense, as a pass heavy, downfield explosive offense, has the advantage in this type of game. You saw what they did in Atlanta a few weeks ago. Aaron Rodgers’ career passer rating in a dome is 111.2.

I trust him more. I trust his line more. I trust the Packers depth more (don’t understimate their depth). I picked the Packers in August (over the Ravens, but whatever) and I’m doing it again in late January. Packers 23. Steelers 17. I’m making it a 5 unit because it’s the biggest game of the season, I feel confident in it, and I want to go out with a bang.

Super Bowl Prop Bet

Pittsburgh wins by 1-6 +400 (1 unit)/Green Bay wins by 1-6 +330 (1 unit)

This is going to be a close game no matter what. I can’t see this being decided by more than a touchdown. These two teams are so evenly matched. 4 of the last 7 Super Bowls have been decided by less than a touchdown. Of the three that weren’t, two needed a late pick six to make the lead bigger than 7. Besides, the Steelers have only lost two games by more than 5 points all year while the Packers haven’t lost a game by more than 4 points since week 8 of 2009.

I’m betting 1 unit on each so if the Steelers win by 6 or fewer, I win 300 (minus the 100 for losing the Packers part of the bet) and if the Packers win by 6 or fewer I win 230 (minus the 100 for losing the Steelers part of the bet). Average those two out, that’s +265. Sure I’ll take a this game will be decided by less than a touchdown +265 bet. Makes so much sense.

 

 

The Houston Texans have never made the playoffs. They have been trendy sleeper picks for the past few years and have never come through. Some people have sworn off of making them sleepers. I am not one of those people. In fact, this is the first year I can really call Houston one of my sleepers. Peyton Manning had offseason surgery and will miss most of if not all of the preseason. The last time that happened, he struggled early in the season. The Texans play the Colts week 1, a game they won last year. If they win again, they might not look back. They could take this division.

Offense has never been the problem for this team. With Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, and Andre Johnson, they might have the best QB/RB/WR trio in the league. They also have quite possibly the league’s most underrated offensive line. They’ll be fine offensively and I’ll get back to that later. First, I want to focus on their defense.

Their defense was bad last year. It was really bad last year. Like really, really, really bad. They allowed the most passing yards in the league and were 2^nd in passing yards per attempt. They allowed the 3^rd most total yards and the 4^th most points. The only thing that wasn’t terrible was their run defense, ranked 11^th. However, this is a passing league and if you can’t stop the pass, you won’t make the playoffs.

The Texans have fixed that pass defense this offseason. They brought in two starting caliber defensive backs, in the offseason, Danieal Manning and Johnathan Joseph. Joseph was the market’s #2 cornerback behind Nnamdi Asomugha. He is extremely talented and will definitely add to this pass defense. As for the other 2 starting spots in the secondary, 2010 2^nd round pick Kareem Jackson will be the #2 cornerback. He was very, very, very terrible last year, but rookie cornerbacks tend to struggle. He’s talented and I expect him to bounce back, especially now that he’s not the #1 guy anymore.

At free safety, Glover Quin will start. He makes the move from cornerback to free safety and he can’t possibly be as bad at free safety as he was at corner, though that’s not saying much. If he does badly, the mediocre Troy Nolan would take over at free safety, so this position is definitely still a weakness. 2^nd round rookie Brandon Harris will be the nickel corner. I had a first round grade on him, so naturally I thought it was a steal when they got him in the late 2^nd. Another rookie, Rashard Carmichael, as well as Brice McCain, a 3^rd year player, provide depth at the position.

Now let’s look some more at the front 7. DeMeco Ryans is back at middle linebacker. That’s a huge plus. This team was 4-2 when he got hurt last year and finished 6-10. I’m not saying his injury had everything to do with that, but he’s definitely a valuable member of this defense. He’ll line up inside next to stud linebacker Brian Cushing. At rush linebacker, the Texans added Brooks Reed in the 2^nd round of the draft, another good pick. He’ll compete with 2009 2^nd round pick Connor Barwin for the starting job. Barwin is largely an unknown commodity. He didn’t play much as a rookie and went down for the season with an injury week 1 last season. Still, having Barwin back is a plus. He and Reed should see plenty of the field, no matter who wins the starting job.

At the other rush linebacker position, they have Mario Williams. Because he’s about 285 pounds, many doubt Williams ability to play rush linebacker, a position where you need speed and pass coverage ability in addition to being a good pass rusher. However, Williams has plenty of speed. Remember he ran a 4.6 at The Combine coming out.

Plus, he’s not playing any old rush linebacker position. He’s playing rush linebacker in Wade Phillips’ defense. This works to his advantage for several reasons. One, Wade Phillips asks his rush linebackers to drop into coverage less than almost any other coordinator out there. Just ask DeMarcus Ware. Ware is terrible in pass coverage, but he’s still frequently mentioned among the best defensive players in the league. He has Wade Phillips to thank for that.

Two, while Wade Phillips does use a base 3-4, he uses sub packages more than just about any other coordinator in the league. Most of these sub packages use 4 man lines, in which Phillips will line up at his old spot from 2010. Tamba Hali made the successful move to a 3-4 as a rush linebacker at 275 pounds. Williams can do the same at 285 pounds in a Wade Phillips scheme that will highlight his strengths and mask his weaknesses.

The defensive line might be the most troubling part of this defense. They added JJ Watt with the 11^th pick, yet another talented rookie coming in, but he is still just a rookie, coming off of a lockout shortened offseason. At nose tackle, Earl Mitchell is penciled in as the starter. He only weighs about 290-295 pounds. Wade Phillips has had success with smaller nose tackles before, particularly Jay Ratliff in Dallas. However, Ratliff was still about 10-15 pounds heavier than Mitchell. If Mitchell can’t hold down the job, the mediocre Shaun Cody would start.

Opposite JJ Watt, things are a little better than at the nose, but not much. Antonio Smith is a better fit for the 3-4 than the 4-3, but he’s still a borderline talent. He could be easily upgraded. However, this defense is going to be, at the very least, average. Add in DeMeco Ryans and Connor Barwin back from injury, Brooks Reed, JJ Watt, and Brandon Harris through the draft, and Johnathan Joseph and Danieal Manning through free agency, that’s a lot of talent coming in.

Kareem Jackson will be better. Glover Quin probably will be better. They add a legitimate defensive coordinator in Wade Phillips and he’s instituting a 3-4 defense, important because Peyton Manning’s struggles against 3-4s in his career are well documented. If this defense is average and the offense keeps doing what it’s doing, they can easily win this division, provided they beat the Colts week 1. I think this is the year they make the playoffs.

 

Now, onto that offense. You all know about Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, and Andre Johnson, as well as other talented receivers like Kevin Walter, James Jones, and Owen Daniels. However, what about that offensive line? Duane Brown (left tackle), Wade Smith (left guard), Chris Myers (center), Matt Brisiel (right guard), Eric Winston (right tackle). They might not be the biggest names, but they work well as a unit, they don’t miss games, and they fit the zone blocking scheme like a glove. They allowed a mere 27 sacks last year and they were one of the best run blocking lines in the league, helping Arian Foster lead the league in rushing.

A lot of people are doubting Arian Foster. He is a one year wonder, they say, or he will really miss talented fullback Vonta Leach, they say. However, the offensive line was just as big a part of his success and he’s very talented in his own right. He’ll be fine, even with Lawrence Vickers replacing Vonta Leach. Plus, he’s a solid pass catcher.

As I said before, if this defense can be even average, I think this team can win the division. In order to win the division, they’ll have to beat the Colts week 1, but I think they have a very good chance to do that, and even if they don’t, I think they can sneak in as a wild card. I have a little bit higher of a projection for them. Every year, one team that didn’t make the playoffs the year before gets a first round bye. I think this is that team this year. There was a point when the Saints were a team that couldn’t win anything. They won the Super Bowl the next year.

Quarterback: B+

Running backs: A

Receiving corps: B+

Offensive line: A-

Run defense: C+

Pass rush: B-

Pass coverage: B-

Coaching: C-

Projection: 12-4 1^st in AFC South

 

 

Quarterback 

Cincinnati

6-6 223

40 time: 4.92

Draft board overall prospect rank: #90

Draft board quarterback rank: #5

Overall rating: 71*

1/30/10: He showed more of what the coaches were seeing from him in practice, a ball that kind of dies at about 10 yards downfield. He did look more mobile in the pocket than I remember him from last year, but his arm strength was not good and he struggled to make a lot of the throws he’ll have to make in the NFL. He started out 3 of 3, but was 2 of his next 9 to finish 5-12 for 44 yards. He has good decision making and good short accuracy, but I think he’s a 3rd round prospect at best.

1/27/10: Looked like a stick figure at his weigh in and then went out and has easily looked like the worst quarterback at the Senior Bowl this week in practice. He went into the Senior Bowl with the potential to go in the 2^nd round. Now, I think he’s looking at the 3^rd round.

1/16/10: He may just be a system quarterback and he doesn’t have elite arm strength, but his accuracy was excellent last year and he’s a very smart quarterback with good decision making. He’s also very tall and has the frame to bulk up and become a stronger thrower. He threw for 29 touchdowns last year despite missing close to 4 games with an injury, and injury which has clearly passed based off of his late season performances.

            10/2/09: Tony Pike leads one of the most explosive offenses in college football, leading the Cincinnati Bearcats at quarterback for the past two seasons as they have risen from nobody to BCS bowl contender. However, he plays in a spread offense that bloats his stats and masks his lack of arm strength and inability to make reads out of a traditional pro style under center offense. He doesn’t have a strong arm, nor does he have a strong upper arm. He’s very skinny. He is smart though and gets the ball to guys in positions where they can pick up yards after the catch. He is tall and has no problem seeing over the line. His height allows him a very fluid throwing motion on short passes, but because his lack of arm strength, he floats a lot of long throws which could be picked off in the pros. He’s not very mobile and can’t escape the pass rush. He takes a lot of sacks. He’s going to be a 24 year old rookie which limits his upside. He has a history of injuries and really only took over the starting job last year so his statistical sample size is not as big as you’d like. He does appear to improve game to game and year to year statistically. I don’t see him as a star quarterback in the NFL, but he could be a starter in the right system and would provide a nice backup for a starter. I don’t see him going before the 3^rd round.

NFL Comparison: Matt Cassel

*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here

 

Spotlight #1: Stanford OT Jonathan Martin

Spotlight #2: Stanford OLB Chase Thomas 

1^st

11:18: Jonathan Martin blown right past by USC’s Nick Perry, allows the pressure, forces Andrew Luck to scramble (not like it mattered to Luck). I’m interested in this matchup. Martin hasn’t been tested much this year. Perry has 4 sacks and 6 tackles for loss this season. He had a down year as a sophomore, but remember, he had 9 sacks as a freshman in 2009.

10:14: Martin stays with Perry’s spin move. Nice job. Much better this time.

8:38: Tyler up the middle for 3, has to leave with an injury. I’ll be watching Stanford linebacker #44 Chase Thomas in the mean time.

5:11: Thomas with a tackle for loss on Robert Woods, who took the pitch out of the backfield.

4:02: Thomas misses a tackle, too much acceleration.

3:30: Thomas with his hand in the dirt against Matt Kalil. He didn’t stand a chance.

2:03: Thomas gets pressure on Barkley.

1:02: Thomas covers a tight end short very well.

2^nd

11:34: Martin struggling again a bit with Nick Perry, who gets a pressure, but he was asked to block for a long time. This could be considered a coverage pressure, but Luck had to step up and run to evade it.

10:40: Thomas with a pressure on a blitz.

9:41: Barkley throws a bad pick, doesn’t see the linebacker.

9:25: Martin doing what he does best, run blocking. 5 yard run through his side with a great block by Martin. He’ll have to prove he’s more than a right tackle at the next level. Perry is beating him too frequently tonight.

7:54: Luck with his 2^nd delay of game penalty of the night.

7:21: Perry beats Martin again and forces Andrew Luck to flee the pocket.

7:15: Martin allows another pressure. He’s having a poor game. This time he wasn’t even on Perry. Luck has struggled a bit on his last few drives with the pressure that Martin is allowing.

6:28: Thomas pancaked by Matt Kalil. There’s no way he’s winning that matchup.

5:05: Thomas on Kalil again. No chance. That’s his problem. He’s an awesome 3-4 outside linebacker at this level, but at 239 pounds, I don’t know he’s big enough to play the position in the pros. This is his first game against an NFL caliber left tackle. He might be a 4-3 outside linebacker purely.

1:33: Thomas in on a big tackle for loss on the ball carrier after a recovered botched handoff.

0:55: Chase Thomas against Matt Kalil again, trying to beat him with his quickness, tries a spin move, goes nowhere.

 

3^rd

13:54: Thomas completely pushed off the play by Matt Kalil on a huge touchdown run by USC.

12:09: Jonathan Martin leaves with an injury. In the mean time, I’ll be watching Stanford tight end #82 Coby Fleener in the meantime.

10:31: Matt Kalil plows open a long touchdown for the 2^nd time tonight.

9:39: Martin is back. He didn’t miss a play.

8:33: Martin allows another pressure from Perry, who forces Andrew Luck to move and throw. Since starting 5-5, Luck is 6-11 thanks to a ton of pressure. If he’s as good as everyone says he is, he’s going to find a way to win this game down 20-10.

6:34: Luck must have heard me. Touchdown.

5:47: Chase Thomas gets pressure.

2:11: Nick Perry tackles Luck just short on 3^rd down after a scramble up the middle.

1:22: Luck with another touchdown, this time a run, 24-20 Stanford.

4^th

12:18: Martin struggles again with Nick Perry. He hasn’t been all bad tonight, but he hasn’t looked like a top 10 pick.

11:11: Martin allows Perry to hit Luck as he threw.

9:25: Luck sacked for the 2^nd time tonight, 4^th time all year. Perry in on the tackle with another defender. This was more of a coverage sack.

7:55: Thomas in on a tackle for little to no gain.

5:03: Thomas matched up with Kalil again, Kalil just pushes him off easily. I think Thomas has been matched up with Kalil on 10-15 snaps tonight. I don’t think he’s won one.

3:08: Holy crap Andrew Luck might have just thrown the game winning touchdown to the wrong team, pick six.

2:16: TJ McDonald, known for his personal fouls, with one here after USC stopped Stanford on 3^rd and 6.

2:10: Martin on Perry again, Perry forces Luck out of the pocket again.

0:51: Martin struggling a bit with Perry again. Martin just doesn’t look very athletic out there.

0:38: Luck leads another touchdown drive to tie it. He hasn’t been perfect tonight, but he’s done a very good job of not letting his mistakes affect him.

Overtime

OT- Martin with a nice run block. He’s had a good day run blocking, but he’s had trouble with Perry’s quick in pass protection.

3OT- Martin allows another pressure.

0:00: This game was a favorite of NFL scouts because it had 4 potential top 5 picks, the two quarterbacks Andrew Luck and Matt Barkley, and the two left tackles, Matt Kalil and Jonathan Martin. Of those 4, Martin was easily the least impressive and someone I was spotlighting in this game. Martin has played very well to this point in the season as part of Stanford’s awesome run blocking line and also helping Andrew Luck take only 2 sacks all season.

Luck took 2 sacks in this game alone. Martin was only responsible for .5 at most, but he still had a lot of trouble with USC defensive end Nick Perry, a quick, athletic defensive end. Andrew Luck has amazing pocket presence and was able to scramble away from a lot of Perry’s pressures. Martin hadn’t really played anyone of note to this point in the season so it definitely hurts his stock to see him struggle with someone like Perry, who isn’t an elite defensive end prospect, though this game definitely helps his stock. Martin has an uphill battle now to prove he’s athletic enough to stay on the left side in the pros and that he’s not just a run blocking right tackle. If he can’t do that, he’ll slip out of the top 10 picks.

As for Perry, he’s no slouch of a defensive end prospect. He was viewed as a potential future first rounder after 9 sacks as a freshman in 2009, but he managed just 4 sacks in a disappointing season as a sophomore in 2010 as came into this season as a mid rounder at best. He’s had 4 sacks already this season and though he didn’t have a sack in this game, he showed great speed and quickness and a wide repertoire of pass rushing moves against a left tackle that no one had had any success against to this point in the season. At 6-3 250, he’s a little undersized, but he runs a 40 in the 4.5-4.6s and could end up a day 2 pick if he continues to impress.

Now onto Andrew Luck, I mentioned his awesome pocket presence, but this was really the first game Andrew Luck really faced any adversity this season. Stanford had won a record 10 straight by 25 points or more and Luck had been sacked just 7 times in a year in a half coming into the game. He went down twice tonight, but easily could have gone down 4 or 5 times with the way USC was getting after the quarterback. Luck did an awesome job of scrambles for some gains and throwing on the run with pressure breathing down his back.

All in all, Luck was 29 for 40 for 330 yards, 3 touchdowns, and a pick, very impressive considering his offensive line wasn’t helping him out a lot and his running game only average 3.9 yards per carry, a rarity for this Stanford running game. The one pick was ugly, a pick six late in a tied game, but Luck showed great mental toughness to come back, lead a game winning drive and eventually win it in triple overtime after that pick. We all know the abilities that Luck has, but we haven’t really seen him face any adversity. Tonight he did, proving he can win ugly too. He’s not perfect, but he’s very, very good and he’s proven that he can handle not being perfect and still win when things go wrong.

While Jonathan Martin struggled, his counterpart USC left tackle Matt Kalil was awesome once again, proving why many see him as the best pro prospect other than Andrew Luck. Kalil didn’t make anything even close to a mistake, penalty, sack, tackle for loss allowed, big quarterback pressure, all night. He paved the way for 2 long USC runs and kept Matt Barkley’s blindside protected all night. He was matched up with Stanford rush linebacker Chase Thomas on roughly 15 plays in this game and he didn’t lose a single one and Thomas is no slouch. He’s considered a potential day 2 pick as a 3-4 or a 4-3 outside linebacker.

Speaking of Thomas, I spotlighted him as Marc Tyler went down with an injury on the first play of the game. Tyler, who has had injuries problems throughout his career, is going to have a tough time shaking the “injury prone” label as a draft prospect. He hasn’t put up great stats either and he might have lost his starting job, even if healthy, as backup Curtis McNeal looked awesome in his absence. Tyler might end up going undrafted.

Now onto Thomas, the 239 pound rush linebacker looked very small. He’s undersized for a rush linebacker and though he has 5.5 sacks on the season, he hadn’t really faced an NFL caliber left tackle to this point in the season. He definitely did tonight in Kalil and he looks like he’ll struggle getting off blocks against left tackles at the next level.

He might just be a 4-3 outside linebacker with strong blitzing ability, rather than someone who can match up with left tackles, either with his hand in the ground or as a rush linebacker. He’s undersized and doesn’t have the quickness to make up for it. He’s still a solid player, but if he can’t play 3-4 rush linebacker, he’ll have a hard time staying in day 2.

Finally, we go to Matt Barkley, the other quarterback in this game. Barkley was 28 for 45 for 284 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 pick. He had way more help in terms of his offensive line (he wasn’t sacked) and his running back (two long touchdown runs by Curtis McNeal) and he still lost and put up inferior stats than Luck, who was facing a better defense. Barkley isn’t bad or anything, but he’s not Andrew Luck. This game is probably going to be neutral for his stock as he remains a top 10 pick as potentially the #2 quarterback off the board, though Landry Jones and Robert Griffin might have something to say about that.