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Nick Fairley Scout

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Defensive Tackle/3-4 Defensive End

Auburn

6-4 297

Draft Board Overall Prospect Rank: #3

Draft Board Overall Defensive Tackle Rank: #1

Rating: 96 (Elite)

40 time: 4.82

2/27/11: Fairley came in here trying to separate himself from all the other #1 pick candidates. Being 6-3 291 instead of 6-5 300 didn’t help. For comparison, Marcell Dareus was 6-3 318.

2/20/11: Nick Fairley’s 2010 season was the definition of a breakout season, as the little known defensive tackle from Auburn exploded for 12.5 sacks, .5 more than Ndamukong Suh had in 2009, despite missing one game. However, he widely regarded as a lesser prospect than Ndamukong Suh, for several reasons. One, and most important to me, he only did this one year. He had 1 sack in 2009 and didn’t play in 2008. That’s the definition of a one year wonder. Suh was a 3 year starter that had totaled a fairly impressive 7 sacks in 2008, before his 2009 season.

Suh was also much more well rounded. Suh could deflect passes at the line of scrimmage and chase running backs out of the backfield. In addition to 12 sacks, he also LED his team in tackles and was second in pass deflections. His 26 quarterback pressures were 5 more than Fairley’s 21. Suh also played with better leverage than Fairley

Finally, and the least important reason to me, is Fairley’s “dirty” label. People are calling him an immature personal foul machine that will be suspended several times in his career and commit one 15 yard personal foul penalty every game. While it is true, a lot of Fairley’s hits this year would have drawn penalties in the NFL, but they didn’t in college football. Isn’t it possible he could change his style of play to be less erratic in the NFL? It’s much easier for a coach to calm a player’s play down than to coach him up.

You can’t coach Fairley’s type of motor. He doesn’t take plays off. Just because he committed some dirty hits in college, doesn’t mean he’s going to become Albert Haynesworth, step on Andre Gurode’s face with cleats, only try in contact years, make 100 million dollars and then bitch about a 3-4 scheme he hasn’t even tried yet.

Fairley seems like a good kid. He doesn’t take plays off and while that could certainly change once he’s given a ton of money in the NFL, I’m not going to let that stop me from ranking him high. Any defensive linemen ever drafted high could bust when given a ton of money. Suh could have (he obviously didn’t, but he could have). Besides, Suh wasn’t the cleanest player in college or in the NFL. He was fined several times for hits on quarterbacks this year and had some dirty hits at Nebraska. Fairley’s personal fouls are not as big of a concern as his potential to be a one year wonder and his lack of a complete game like Suh.

However, Fairley could still be drafted higher than Suh. He seems like the consensus top pick right now, and while I still have AJ Green going #1 because I think it’s too soon to tell and Green makes more sense to me. This, however, doesn’t mean that he’s a consensus better prospect than Suh. This is just a weaker class. There’s no Sam Bradford in this class and if there wasn’t one last year, Suh would have been the #1 pick in a heartbeat. If Suh were in this class, Fairley would be the consensus #2 prospect and the Panthers probably would have already announced they were taking Suh. Suh’s just better.

Fairley probably is the only top 3 pick lock in this class right now. He has the ability to play inside in a 4-3 and outside in a 3-4 as a 3-4 defensive end. He won’t fall past the Bills at #3. I just can’t see it happening, barring some sort of freak incident between now and draft day. He’s the best overall defensive lineman in what could be the strongest defensive line class in NFL history.

I wouldn’t take Fairley #1 just because of his one year wonder potential, even if defensive tackle was my #1 need (which I don’t feel it is for Carolina). However, I still have him as my 3rd overall prospect. He’s a very, very strong prospect. He was simply impossible to keep away from the quarterback this year. He was Suh-like in that regarded and while he isn’t the overall player Suh is, I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up as the Defensive Player of the Year in 2011 (assuming we have football) and approached Suh’s unbelievable 10 sacks. Fairley appears to be next in the line of 300 pound defensive tackles who pass rush like defensive ends, a fact that should have NFL quarterbacks shitting their pants in fear.

NFL Comparison: Darnell Dockett

 

 

Packers

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Packers vs. Vikings

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By Packrphan 

Installment #3 of the duel between the Green Bay Packers and the Ol’ #4-led Minnesota ViQueens kicks off at 7:20 p.m. tonight at Lambeau Field. The Packers are favored by 3 points — the home field advantage. Temps will be in the mid-50s, great for late October. Showers are expected to taper off. If rain persists, it may turn the event into a running game…which would favor the ‘Queens and RB Adrian Peterson. Especially since the Packers’ running game has basically been put on the back burner of head coach Mike McCarthy’s play calling, despite his protestations to the contrary. One of the keys to this game, though, is really about keeping Peterson contained more so than getting the moribund (look it up!) running game of the Packers going. Keep Peterson in check, as the Pack did in their two games last season, make Ol’ #4 have to throw the ball, get pressure on him — as the Pack did not in their two games last season — and that will go a long way to determining the outcome of this game.

On the flip side, Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers has to play better than he did against his counterpart in the two meetings of last season. It would help, of course, if his offensive line also protected him better than it did then. ‘Queens DE Jared Allen isn’t the sack machine he was a year ago and tonight is no time for him to begin reprising that role. Chad Clifton and Bryan Bulaga — likely getting the start at tackle again for Mark Tauscher — will have to be on their game. Rodgers, for his part, needs to get rid of the ball more quickly than when these teams last met. Of late, he seems to have reverted a bit to this old habit which could come back to haunt him and the Pack. Let’s hope not. RB Brandon Jackson and whomever else coach McCarthy tosses in to run a few times need to do enough to keep the Minnesota defense honest and out of a constant blitz barrage. Rodgers and his receivers also need to do a much better job of converting third downs. To date, that has been a situation which has contributed directly to the Pack’s three losses. If it’s the same old tune tonight…well, that wouldn’t be good.

The Packers’ defense should get a boost from having linebackers Brandon Chillar and Clay Matthews back in the lineup, along with DE Ryan Pickett. All three are still listed as questionable on the Packers’ injury report, but expectations are that they will see action. Matthews is obviously critical to getting pressure on Favre. And Chillar’s ability to cover over the middle will also play a role in the defense’s success tonight. Pickett’s ability to anchor the end of the line will also be key to helping contain Peterson. The news on the return to practice of CB Al Harris and S Atari Bigby this week was a plus, but no moves were made to make them active as of yet. Newly-acquired S Anthony Smith should see some action today backing up Charlie Peprah.

Special teams? Well…containing Minnesota returner Percy Harvin will be a challenge. And if they don’t that could be the difference between winning and losing this game. Add in the need by punter Tim Masthay to do a much better job than he has done recently in helping the Packers manage the opponents’ starting field position and this is still a major area of concern.

What’s the bottom line? For a lot of reasons, the Packers need to win this game. The season is not done, however, if they don’t. But getting the ‘Queens at Lambeau, with a distracted (we hope) Brett Favre, and with a healthier (relatively speaking) defense, is a plus. If the Packers offense can just put 4 quarters of consistent effort across, the Pack should take this game. But it will be close. Very close, as most of the games between these two teams are.

I’m calling it 24-23 Packers.

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Quarterback Redshirt

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The Seahawks are in a rare position this season. They are likely going to get a top ten pick as they are now 5-9 and recent lost at home to the previously 1-12 Buccaneers, but they already have a good veteran quarterback. For this reason, I believe they should take one, which may seem counter intuitive, but makes a lot of sense when you think about it.

Quarterback is single most cerebral position in football. You have to learn the offense, the plays, all the receivers routes, and develop good chemistry with receivers on option routes. You have to be able to learn and read complex coverages and read complex blitzes. For the most part, college quarterbacks don’t have to do this as much. A college quarterback, no matter who they are, needs a redshirt year, a year where they are nothing but a backup in case of injury, a year, where they can learn the offense, the routes, the receivers, the coverages, the blitzes, all of those things, in order to fully be a good quarterback in this league. Some require two.

However, with so many quarterbacks, especially elite quarterback prospects, being drafted early out of “we need this guy now” instead of, “well, we’ll need him in a year or two when he’s ready because we already have a decent veteran,” they lose this ability to have this necessary redshirt year. The list of guys thrown out into action in a major way in their rookie year include Joey Harrington (14 games his rookie year), David Carr (16 games), Patrick Ramsey (9 games), Kyle Boller (11 games) Byron Leftwich (15 games), Alex Smith (9 games), Vince Young (15 games).

Speaking of Smith and Young, both are doing decent jobs this season, in fact, of the three guys who have established themselves as guys who look like longterm starters in this league, Smith and Young are two of them. You might think this disproves my argument, but it actually strengths. Vince Young and Alex Smith both sucked when they came out. In two years before being benched, Vince Young threw 21 touchdowns to 30 picks and in three years before being benched, Alex Smith threw 19 touchdowns to 31 picks. However, after finally getting benched and finally sitting for a year plus, both have come back with good seasons and are establishing themselves as starting quarterbacks in the NFL.

The other of the three quarterbacks who have established themselves as starting quarterbacks this year is Chad Henne of the Miami Dolphins. Chad Henne was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2008 NFL Draft and had the luxury of sitting behind veteran Chad Pennington for more than a year. When Pennington got hurt this year, Henne stepped in and has a decent quarterback rating of 73.9 and more importantly is 7-4 as a starter.

Need further proof? Let’s take a look at all of the quarterbacks who are established as starters in this leagues.

Chad Henne- See above.

Tom Brady- Brady sat his entire rookie season behind veteran Drew Bledsoe after being drafted in the 6th round of the 2000 draft with the exception of one game he played where he went 1 for 3 for 6 yards. He took over for Bledsoe after he got hurt in 2001 and has led the Pats to 3 Super Bowls wins since.

Mark Sanchez- Sanchez is a 2009 1st round pick who started his first game as a rookie this season. Its tough to make a decision on him yet, but he has 12 touchdowns to 20 picks this season so he has struggled.

Carson Palmer- A perfect example of the redshirt year working to someone’s advantage, Carson Palmer didn’t make a throw his rookie year behind Comeback Player of the Year Jon Kitna, but took over in his 2nd season and has a career 88.4 QB rating with 126 touchdowns to 78 picks.

Ben Roethlisberger- Made 15 starts his rookie season, so he’s a bit of an exception, but he’s unorthodox style of play makes him an exception to many things. Plus, it should be noted that he only threw 295 passes his rookie year so he was used conservatively.

Joe Flacco- Started all 16 games as a rookie making him a bit of an exception, but he’s still young and he has not extremely impressive so far. Plus, he plays in a conservative offense with a strong running game and a good defense to support him.

Peyton Manning- Started every game of his career making him an exception, but Manning is so good that he’s an exception to most things.

David Garrard- Played in 4 games as a rookie after being drafted in the 4th round of the 2002 draft, but only played in 17 games in his first 4 seasons, making 296 throws in that span of time so he definitely had plenty of sitting and watching time. He took over as the team’s starting quarterback midway through 2006 and hasn’t looked back, with a completion percentage of 60% or more in all 4 season since then and 56 touchdowns to 32 picks in that stretch of time.

Vince Young- See above

Matt Schaub- Spent 3 years on the bench behind Michael Vick throwing a limited 161 throws in those years, before being traded to the Texans in 2007 where he has been the starter ever since.

Phillip Rivers- Another perfect example, Rivers made 30 throws in his first two years as Drew Brees’ backup and then took over as the starter when Brees left to go to New Orleans and has started every game ever since and is one of the winningest starters in the NFL with a record of 44-18 as a starter.

Kyle Orton- Rushed into the starting lineup thanks to an injury to Rex Grossman during his rookie season and made 15 starts with a hideous 59.7 QB rating in those starts. Was not heard from until 2007 when he started 3 more games and then took over as the Bears’ starter in 2008 and then the Broncos starter in 2009 after being traded for Jay Cutler. His QB ratings for the last two years respectively are 79.6 and 89.2.

Matt Cassel- Didn’t make a start until week 2 of his 4th season after Tom Brady got hurt in 2008. He had a good 89.4 QB rating in 2008 and then was traded to Kansas City after Brady returned. He is currently the Chiefs starter and has a mediocre QB rating of 71.1, though he does have very little talent around him to help him out.

Tony Romo- Signed as an undrafted free agent in 2003 with the Cowboys but did not see any game action until 2006 when he took over for veteran Drew Bledsoe. Romo has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league since and is a two time Pro Bowler.

Donovan McNabb- Another exception, McNabb took over as starting quarterback midway through his rookie year and has had a successful career since, with the exception of a small history of injuries.

Eli Manning- Played sparingly in his rookie year, throwing 197 passes behind injury prone starter Kurt Warner and then took over in 2005 as the starter. He struggled early in his career, especially late in the season and at home in the Meadowlands, but worked through that and won the Super Bowl in 2008.

Jason Campbell- Took over as starter of the Redskins 9 games into his 2nd season and has been statistically alright with a career QB rating of 82.2. He is actually having a career season with a QB rating of 87.0 this season, but because his team is not winning and his 5 year rookie contract expires this offseason, he may have to look for another job this offseason, though he has proven he deserves one.

Brett Favre- Threw 4 passes in his rookie season in Atlanta, then was traded to Green Bay directly after his rookie season. And the rest is history.

Aaron Rodgers- While Brett Favre was making that history, Aaron Rodgers was sitting and watching for three years. When Favre retired and then signed with the Jets in 2008, Rodgers took over for Favre and has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league. He has certainly been a lot better than fellow 2005 1st round pick Alex Smith, who was drafted ahead of him and thrown into action during his rookie season.

Jay Cutler- Took over for Jake Plummer 11 games into his rookie season, and made 5 starts. However, with 43 picks over the last two seasons, even though he is an established starter, its safe to say that he’s not so good at learning the offense, the plays, all the receivers routes, and developing good chemistry with receivers on option routes, learning and reading complex coverages and reading complex blitzes. Just saying

Matt Stafford- Its too early to make a judgment on the 2009 1st round pick, who made his first start during week 1 of his rookie season, but throwing 20 picks to 13 touchdowns, despite throwing 5 touchdowns in one game against the lowly Browns, is not a good start.

Drew Brees- Played in one game in his rookie season with the Chargers and took over as the starting quarterback for Doug Flutie in 2002. Though he lost his starting job for a few weeks in 2003 and never established himself as a dominant starting quarterback in San Diego, after he left the Chargers for the Saints four years ago, Brees has been one of the best in the business.

Matt Ryan- Ryan started every game in his rookie season, but had a lot of help from a strong running game, a decent defense, and a weak schedule as he put up a 87.7 QB rating. This year, still the starter, he has struggled some, as their running game hasn’t been as strong nor has their defense, and their schedule is one of the toughest in the NFL. He has a quarterback rating of 79.1 this season and is averaging a lowly 6.4 YPA and I believe he is one of the most overrated quarterbacks in the NFL.

Josh Freeman- Hasn’t started every game as a rookie this season, but has started 7 games, and has 9 touchdowns to 14 picks, so, even though its still early, Freeman’s career has not gotten off to the best start.

Kurt Warner- Signed with the Rams as a 27 year old undrafted free agent in 1998, made 11 throws in his “rookie” year, and took over as their starter in 1999, leading the Rams to the Super Bowl. He has had his ups and downs since, but has made two more trips to the Super Bowl, and is a borderline Hall of Famer at this point with 207 touchdowns to 138 picks and a career 93.7 QB rating.

Matt Hasselbeck- Spent a year on the practice squad and 2 years backing up Brett Favre in Green Bay before being traded to the Seahawks, where he took over for started Trent Dilfer in 2002. He has made three Pro Bowls in his career as a starter, which could be ending soon and hopefully a good young quarterback is waiting on the bench for when he leaves Seattle or retires.

Alex Smith- See above

To make sense of all that I have broken it down into categories and categorized each player in one of those categories.

Started a majority of their rookie season, has had an average career as a starter: 2

Started a majority of their rookie season, has had an above average career as a starter: 3

Took over as starter in late 1st/early 2nd season, has had an average career as a starter: 1

Took over as starter in late 1st/early 2nd season, has had an above average career as a starter: 5       

Took over as starter in mid 2nd season or late, has had an average career as a starter: 4

Took over as starter in mid 2nd season or late, has had an above average career as a starter: 6

Still a rookie, too soon to tell: 3

Started a majority of their rookie season, sat for a period of more than a year after that, then regained a starter’s job: 3

Of the 24 non-rookie established starting quarterbacks profiled, 10 did not take over as starter until midway through their 2nd season or later, and another 6 did not start until late in their rookie season or early in their 2nd. 8 did start the majority of their rookie season, but of those 8, 2 are currently 2nd year players and 3 completely sucked and were later benched before regaining their job. The other three, Donovan McNabb, Ben Roethlisberger, and Peyton Manning, started a majority of their rookie season and hit very few speed bumps in their career and are now Pro Bowl caliber quarterbacks, but they are extremely rare (3 out of 24). All 3 rookie starters this season have more picks than touchdowns showing that this trend could be continuing.

With drafting quarterbacks, the right move is the counter-intuitive one. Draft them when you don’t need them, or before you need them. Seattle is likely going to have a top ten pick this year and with current starting quarterback Matt Hasselbeck being 34 years old, now is a perfect time for them to draft a big upside project quarterback, like Ryan Mallett, who I have said has Peyton Manning esque upside given the right amount of time and good coaching. Sam Bradford, who has the skills, but needs to learn a pro style offense, is also a good fit. 

 

 

Rams Hammered

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By Vince Vitale

The Rams game on Sunday remains us of some nights out drinking. Early on its all good you start with a glass of wine at dinner and then maybe head over to the bar for a couple more drinks. Then things start to go well and everyone is having a good time. This is about the time when someone decides to buy a round of shots perhaps Patron. A few shots later you find yourself out in the parking lot wondering what happened. Well we have all been there before, and the Rams were there on Sunday. 

With 1:37 left in the first half of play the Rams Darian Stewart recovered a fumble by Courtney Roby on the Saints 21 yard line with the Rams trailing 14-6. After being outplayed for most of the first half the Rams had a chance to get right back into the game. After a 6 yard run by Steven Jackson Sam Bradford dropped back on 2nd and 4 and threw a ball down the left sideline to Laurent Robinson who appeared open. What Bradford did not see was Malcolm Jenkins coming over from the middle of the field to pick off his softly floating pass. 96 yards later Jenkins was in the house and the Saints were up 21-6 and for all intensive purposes this game was put on ice.

The final numbers do not tell the story since the Rams played with a lot of heart in the 4th quarter and continued to put up stats. Although losing by 18 points Sam Bradford threw for 231 yards, while Drew Brees threw for 221. St. Louis Rams also outrushed the Saints 136 to 132 yards. As I stated in my game preview this game would come down to mistakes and execution.

The Rams most likely would need to win the turnover battle and needed to be better on third down conversions to have a chance to beat the Saints. While the turnover battle was tied at three the Saints by far won the battle. The interception by Jenkins most likely cost the Rams at least 3 points and gave the Saints an instant 7 points. In the 4th quarter Bradford also threw another interception from the Saints 7 yard line. As costly as those mistakes were the Rams compounded that by allowing the Saints to start 10 of 12 on 3rd down conversions while the Rams started 0-of-7. This helped allow the Saints to jump out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter. For a team like the Rams that has a hard time scoring 20 points they can not afford to give up 14 points that quickly. The crushing blow was when Brees hit Colston on 3rd and 17 from the 17 when the Rams inexplicitly only rushed 3 and dropped 8 into coverage. The laser from Brees was just too hard for the Rams secondary to get there in time and the hole was dug.

After having a less than great game last week against the Arizona Cardinals Sam Bradford struggled again today with a QB rating of 56.3. With three games left to play Bradford is going to have to play much better to help the Rams win the NFC West. The Seattle Seahawks lost 40-21 to the San Francisco 49ers today so the Rams remain in first place, but don’t look now the 49ers are once again only one game out. The will host the 8-5 Kansas City next week in a huge game for both teams.

On a side note congratulations to Steven Jackson for going over 1000 yards rushing for the 6th straight year!

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Ravens Draft Grades

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27. CB Jimmy Smith A-

The Ravens made this pick at 27 instead of 26 because a botched trade with Eugene Levy…er Jerry Angelo and the Bears forced them to go over their time on the clock. However, I’m not holding that against them because they still got their guy and it wasn’t even their fault. Smith fits the range well, but I had Brandon Harris rated higher as a cornerback. I also didn’t have cornerback rated that highly as a need. They may only have two under contract, but they’re either going to resign Chris Carr or sign Nnamdi Asomugha so they’d really only need a 4th cornerback. Yes, you can never have enough corners and a trio of Lardarius Webb (assuming he’s healthy), Carr/Asomugha, and Smith is pretty nice, but I think their pass rush was the bigger problem with their pass defense. Outside of Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata, they managed just 11.5 sacks. That’s not very many. They desperately needed a 3rd pass rusher.

58. WR Torrey Smith B

I think Smith was a reach by about a round here, though people obviously disagree with me. I don’t like his inconsistent production and small hands. However, there’s no denying he fills a need for them as a speedy receiver to stretch the field.

85. OT Jah Reid C-

Right tackle was definitely a need, as was right guard and Reid can play either of those positions. I just don’t get using a 3rd rounder on him. I had a 5th round grade on him. Also, I don’t like that they traded up for him.

123. WR Tandon Doss A-

Two receivers? Well I don’t hate it. Their receiving corps are pretty thin, but they had other needs. They need to get a 3rd pass rusher. Doss is a good value at this point though.

164. CB Chykie Brown B-

More cornerback depth here. They had other needs, but given that they technically only have 2 cornerbacks signed for next year, adding 2 cornerbacks in one draft isn’t a terrible idea. Also, Brown fits the range.

165. 3-4 DE Pernell McPhee C+

Well this is a pass rusher and McPhee fits the range, I just don’t think he fits the 3-4 scheme at all.

180. QB Tyrod Taylor B-

A backup quarterback shouldn’t have been high on their list, but Marc Bulger is probably gone as a free agent so this makes some sense even though he’s a minor reach.

225. RB Anthony Allen A

Willis McGahee probably will be gone this offseason so they need another power back to spell Ray Rice.

Overall:

This was a pretty solid draft. Only the Jah Reid selection was a major reach and at least they filled a need with that one. I would have liked to have seen them grab a 3rd pass rusher along with Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata rather than taking two cornerbacks, but Jimmy Smith in the first round was an above average pick. Torrey Smith was a reach in the 2nd round, but he fits their needs like a glove. There was nothing amazing about this draft, but it wasn’t bad either.

Grade: B

 

Reggie Bush Dolphins

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Trade for New Orleans: They were likely just going to cut him for nothing so credit the Saints for getting a pick and a player in return. I don’t know much about Amaya, but if he can make the roster, he’ll be an added bonus in this deal.

Grade: A

Trade for Miami: All in all, the Dolphins are giving up 10 million over 2 years, a late rounder, and a reserve safety for Bush. I think they overpaid. Bush has never proven he can stay healthy and he’ll just be a backup running back to rookie Daniel Thomas. They gave up too much, particularly in terms of money, to get him.

Grade: C

 

Ryan Glab

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Ryan Glab

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ryan@bearsbeat.com

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I was born, raised and currently reside in the northwest suburbs of Chicago. I’ve been a Bears fan for more than 20 years and have not missed a game in that timespan, at least not to my recollection. I have every Bears game since 2001 recorded on tape, and with the advent of DVR I often watch games two or three times a week. I played football for 10 years and was a kicker in college where I was a four-year starter at Division III Aurora University.

San Francisco 49ers

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2010 Preview:

There are a lot of questions surrounding this team, all of which exist as a result of their decisions on draft day. I detailed these in my assessment of their draft, but I’ll bring them up again. I’m not saying they had a bad draft, as they got a lot of talent, but the type of talent they got is what poses these questions. What if Alex Smith is not the right choice at quarterback and cannot run a Pro Style offense? It’s a valid question. Smith’s production in a Pro Style offense in the past has fallen way short of expectations. He was decent last year, but out of a shotgun spread. After drafting two monster run blocking offensive linemen in the first round this year, it’s safe to say, they won’t be using a spread this year.

What if they brought in too many guys with questionable character? They’ve had good success in the past with Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree. However, both Taylor Mays and Anthony Davis had major work ethic concerns coming out of school, Davis going as far as to pull an Andre Smith, showing up out of shape to the Combine, and blowing off his Pro Day without telling anyone. Navarro Bowman and Anthony Dixon have been arrested. Nothing wrong with his character, but Mike Iupati is a major project. What if he becomes lazy after getting paid big money and doesn’t develop in pass protection? 

What if they can’t stop anyone through the air? This is an increasingly pass heavy league and their secondary, in terms of pass coverage, leaves a lot to be desired. Nate Clements looks like he will stay at corner this year, rather than move to safety as previously rumored. He’s had good years in the past, just not the recent past, and I wouldn’t bet on him having a bounce back year this year. Shawntae Spencer is a solid #2 corner, but nothing better. Dre Bly and Walt Harris are old. Dashon Goldston, Michael Lewis, and Taylor Mays are all good safeties, but all three excel against the run and aren’t up to par in pass coverage.

Their pass rush is amazing and could be even better this year if either Manny Lawson or Ahmad Brooks steps up as a true #1 pass rusher, but can their below average coverage ability be masked by a fierce pass rush and an amazing run stopping front 7 in an increasingly pass heavy league? They did rank 4th in the league in fewest points allowed last year, but they ranked 15th in total yards last year and may not be as lucky this year. They also ranked 21st in total passing yards allowed last year, not a good sign.

They’ll run well this year. Frank Gore, assuming he stays healthy, should rank among the best in the league in total yards again this year, behind a revamped run blocking line. However, he’s not a consistent source of yards, even more so than most running backs. He had some brilliant games last year where he carried the team, but he also had 4 games of 33 or fewer yards in 13 games. That’s putting a lot of pressure on Alex Smith, who, as I alluded to before, is by no means an established top 15 quarterback in this league, especially in an under center style offense.

Because of the questions at quarterback for them and their deficiencies against the pass, I can’t call this an elite team. They’ll probably look pretty similar to what they were in 2009, in terms of wins and losses. Luckily for them, their division is so bad that the 8 wins they had in 2009 could win them this division.

Projection: 8-8 1st in NFC West

Power Ranking: 17 

Last season: 8-8

Draft:

#11 OT Anthony Davis (Rutgers)

I would give this an F if it were any other team. Davis is Andre Smith 2.0. He lacks motivation. He won’t stay in shape. He struggled in pass protection. However, if there’s anyone who can bring his talent out, it’s Mike Singletary. Still, I don’t see the need to trade up and I don’t think Davis will pan out longterm.

Grade: D

#17 G Mike Iupati (Idaho)

If there was a bigger statement made this draft than the Niners saying “Alex Smith is our quarterback,” show me, because I don’t think there is. The Niners passed up on a quarterback in Jimmy Clausen, twice, not caring about him possibly going to division rival Seattle or Arizona, so they could get some much needed offensive line help to protect Alex Smith. I like the Iupati selection a lot more than the Davis selection because I think Iupati will pan out longterm. Unlike Davis, he is not raw and lacks motivation. He is just raw. However, I cannot give this draft pick an A because in a few years they may have wished they had taken Clausen.

Grade: B

#49 S Taylor Mays (USC)

Wow, this guy lost a lot of money by coming back to school, didn’t he. I don’t think Mays is a first round prospect like some places, however, I love this pick in the middle of the 2nd for the Niners. He fits what they want to do perfectly. They have a coach they can bring it out of him. He fills a need. And, it’s right in the middle of the 2nd round where he would have been a steal if my books even if they didn’t have the perfect atmosphere for him to shine.

Grade: A

#91 MLB Navarro Bowman (Penn State)

Bowman has first round talent, but a bad attitude and a bad history of being arrested/suspended/put on probation. Also, I don’t think he fits the 3-4 scheme perfectly, but he is almost too talented for them to pass on at 91, so I can’t hate the pick.

Grade: B+

#173 RB Anthony Dixon (Mississippi State)

Dixon will fill a goal line and short yardage role for the Niners (who obviously want to get back to smashmouth offensive football) right away, but take a look at their first 5 picks. All 5 of those players either are raw, have motivation issues, or have been arrested. I know Mike Singletary has done good work with lower character guys or project guys before, but he may be bitting off more than he can chew here. He may explode midseason and have another epic rant.

Grade: A-

#182 TE Nate Byham (Pittsburgh)

Finally, a player who hasn’t been arrested or labeled a project. Byham is a blocking tight end, which wasn’t viewed as a need by me coming into the draft, but if they want to get back to smashmouth football, they’ll need a blocker like Byham. Better blockers could be had though.

Grade: C

#206 WR Kyle Williams (Arizona State)

A bit confusing because they already added Ted Ginn Jr. this offseason, who is a returner/receiver guy like Williams, but Ginn is known for some really ugly drops, so Williams could be their slot receiver sometime next year.  A better receiver was available, if not multiple better receivers, but this is a solid selection.

Grade: B-

#224 CB Phillip Adams (South Carolina State)

Why did the Niners wait this long to take a cornerback? Do they not think they have to stop the pass in this pass heavy league. Adams, however, is a very underrated cornerback, so I like the pick.

Grade: A

Overall:

The Niners made 4 statements with this draft: Alex Smith is our quarterback. We want to get back to smahsmouth run heavy football and think Alex Smith can run an under center offense. We think we can bring the best out of players and players with poor legal history or players who are projects don’t scare us. We don’t think we need to stop the pass. Those are some dangerous statements. What if Alex Smith is not the right choice at quarterback and can’t handle running an under center offense? What if Singletary brought in too many projects and not enough proven guys with clean records? What if they can’t stop anyone through the air? It’ll be interesting to see how it all plays out, but I can’t help but think they could look back on this draft and regret a few things (not taking Clausen, not taking a CB in the 3rd, not taking a few more high character leadership guys). However all things aside, the Niners draft class is one of the 5 most talented in the league, so I can’t be too harsh with their grade.

Grade: B-

Key undrafted free agents

QB Jarrett Brown (West Virginia)

CB Patrick Stoudamire (Western Illinois)

S Chris Maragos (Wisconsin)

WR Shay Hodge (Mississippi)

WR Scott Long (Louisville)

CB LeRoy Vann (Florida A&M)

MLB Keaton Kristick (Oregon State)

Positions of need: 

Cornerback:

Nate Clements is moving to free safety and both Dre Bly and Walt Harris are getting up there in years and, let’s be honest, neither of them have been much better than average over the past two years anyway. Walt Harris is also coming off of major knee surgery. I have my doubts about Shawntae Spencer as well, but he proved late in the season last year that he has potential as a future #2 cornerback, or at least a solid nickel corner. That would still leave them without a future #1 cornerback. If Joe Haden is available at 13, they will jump all over him. Even if not, I would be very surprised if they didn’t use one of their two first rounders on a cornerback. Donovan Warren, Kyle Wilson, and Brandon Ghee would all be options at 17.

Drafted Phillip Adams (#224), Signed Will James

Offensive Tackle:

Even when healthy, Joe Staley is more of a right tackle. If they drafted a future left tackle, they could move Staley to right where he belongs and move Adam Snyder and his 9.5 sacks allowed where he belongs, the bench. Bruce Campbell, Anthony Davis, and Bryan Bulaga could all be options at either 13 or 17.

Drafted Anthony Davis (#11) 

Rush Linebacker:

The Niners actually had 44 sacks last year, but they came from all over the field. Their team leader was Manny Lawson, a rush linebacker, with 6.5. If they could get a high upside future #1 rush linebacker, or a proven rush linebacker like Shawne Merriman, this offseason, they could be that much better as a pass rush and that will help their secondary. I would hope Mike Singletary realizes how risky it is to draft a rush linebacker in the first, but if he doesn’t, Jason Pierre Paul and Brandon Graham could be options at 17. More likely, he waits until the 2nd and takes a high upside guy like Sergio Kindle or Ricky Sapp.

Signed Travis LeBoy 

Nose Tackle:

Aubrayo Franklin had a great year this season and, what a coincidence, its his contract year. There’s a good chance he either leaves as a free agent or stays and returns to sucking next year. Either way would require a backup plan and I have my doubts about Isaac Sopoaga’s as well, so there’s a good chance they take a young nose tackle in the draft this year. Unfortunately, with so many teams switching to 3-4 defenses in recent years, this nose tackle class is going to get very thin very fast. If the Niners are really not confident about the nose tackle position, they’ll have to reach for a guy like Jay Ross, Linval Joseph, or Edom Udofia in the 4th round range.

Wide Receiver:

Michael Crabtree and Josh Morgan are good starters, but they need a speed slot guy to stretch the defense, especially if they are really serious about going to a spread based offense. They could target a guy like Marshawn Gilyard or Dexter McCluster in the 2nd or a guy like Jacoby Ford in the 3rd. They may be partial to a wide receiver who has experience as a punt/kick returner too because their return game stunk last year. All three guys I listed prior would fit that job description.

Drafted Kyle Williams (#206) 

Quarterback:

Alex Smith appears to have won the longterm quarterback job, but he hasn’t exactly been a model of consistency to this point in his career. They’d be smart to use a mid to late rounder on a young backup. If they are really planning to go to spread based offense next year, their options here will be a lot greater than most teams because of how widespread the spread style offense is in college. A guy like Max Hall or Zac Robinson could be an option in the 5th round.

Signed David Carr 

Middle Linebacker:

Patrick Willis is a beast, but they need someone longterm next to him as Takeo Spikes is 33 and has just one year left on his contract. This won’t become a huge need until next offseason, but they may want to start looking at the future and guy a nice depth guy in the draft. They will have a hard time passing on Rolando McClain if he falls to them at 13. Mike Singletary, a former middle linebacker himself, could start drooling at the thought of playing McClain next to P-Willis.

Drafted Navarro Bowman (#91) 

Guard:

David Baas could be upgraded at guard, but they have bigger needs. This one should only be addressed if they really fall in love with a late round guard prospect, which rarely happens. They may also feel that Mike Iupati is too talented to pass on at 17.

Drafted Mike Iupati (#17) 

 

Free agents:

RB Thomas Clayton (exclusive rights)- not tendered, signed with Patriots

WR Arnaz Battle- signed with Steelers 3 years 

OT Tony Pashos- signed with Browns 3 years 10.3 million

OT Barry Sims- resigned 

G David Baas (restricted)- resigned

NT Aubrayo Franklin- franchised

RLB Ahmad Brooks (restricted)- resigned 2 years

CB Marcus Hudson (restricted)- not tendered, signed with Panthers

CB Walt Harris- Signed with Ravens

CB ‘Dre Bly- Signed with Lions 

Offseason moves: 

49ers sign CB Will James

49ers extend MLB Patrick Willis

49ers sign RLB Travis LaBoy 

49ers acquire WR Ted Ginn Jr. from Dolphins for 2010 5th-round pick

49ers re-sign G David Baas 

49ers re-sign RLB Ahmad Brooks

49ers re-sign OT Barry Sims

49ers sign CB Karl Paymah

49ers trade QB Shaun Hill to Lions for 2011 7th-rounder

49ers sign QB David Carr

49ers tender RLB Ahmad Brooks

49ers tender G David Baas