Last week overall: 10-6
Last week ATS: 9-7 (-330/-7%)
Overall picks: 126-66 (.659)
ATS Picks: 101-85-6 (+$2870)
Lock picks: 9-4
Upset picks: 24-24
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Week 13 recap: It didn’t start well. Even with a 2 unit win with the Eagles -9.5 over the Texans on Thursday Night, I still started the week 3-6 ATS and more important, blowing 20 of 25 units to put me down -1700. It looked as if this would be my worse week ever and wipe out more than half of the 3K+ I’ve made this season. However, after that 3-6 start, I went 6-1, only losing a 3 unit on the Colts, to battle back to -330 or -7%. It’s obviously not ideal, but as far as off weeks go, it could have been a lot worse. I nailed my 5 unit pick with the Rams over the Cardinals. A 7% loss doesn’t look great, but when you consider that with a 10% juice, you lose $10 of every $110, it’s not terrible. Flipping a coin at random, with average luck, lands you -9% or -450 the way I bet this week. Obviously the goal is not to be slightly better than flipping a coin, but again, as far as off weeks go, it could have been a lot worse. Straight up I was 10-6, a modest record. If you had bet my upset picks straight up you would have lost 60 dollars or .6 units, as I went 1-2 with my upset picks. I nailed my lock pick, with the Rams over the Cardinals. It wasn’t a great week overall, but again it could have been worse. It was my first week in the red since week 6.
Indianapolis Colts 28 Tennessee Titans 17
Spread: Indianapolis -3
Pick against spread: Indianapolis 3 units (-330)
Tennessee is a home team on a Thursday night, and home teams on Thursday night with a winning record have only lost 3 times since 2006. However, the Titans don’t have a winning record any more after dropping their last 4. The Colts, meanwhile, have lost 4 of their last 5.
The Colts haven’t looked like the Colts in recent weeks, but they have played a tough schedule and overall have looked better than the reeling Titans. I just can’t see the Colts losing another game so in a fairly even spread, I’m taking the 6-6 Colts as road favorites on Thursday night. I still have faith in Peyton Manning.
Jacksonville Jaguars 23 Oakland Raiders 20
Spread: Jacksonville -5
Pick against spread: Oakland 1 unit (-110)
Maybe I should go back to not betting highly on Jaguars games. 2 weeks ago, I bet 1 unit on the points with the Jaguars because, up to that point, I was 1-9 picking Jaguars games. I won that 1 unit and then went against the Jaguars as 3 point underdogs in Tennessee last week for 3 units and got burned once again.
I’m going with the points for 1 unit again here. The Jaguars don’t have a great record against non-division opponents and may be caught looking forward to arguably their biggest game of their last 5 years next week, a game in which, if everything goes right between now and then, they could eliminate the Indianapolis Colts.
Buffalo Bills 24 Cleveland Browns 17
Spread: Buffalo -1
Pick against spread: Buffalo 2 units (+200)
I have no idea which Buffalo team we will see this week. Before last week, the Bills hadn’t lost by more than 3 in 6 straight games and hadn’t lost against the spread as an underdog since week 5. Last week, they lost by 24 as a 6.5 point underdog to a Vikings team who lost Brett Favre on the very first throw of the game. That Bills team looked like the Bills team that was terrible against the Steelers in the first half week 12 before the Steelers let them back into it.
However, I’m not sure that team isn’t better than the Miami team the Browns just beat. Chad Henne turned into Jake Delhomme and threw 3 picks, one of which set up the Browns with first and goal in a tied game late and eventually gave the Browns a 13-10 road win. I may have lost betting against Jake Delhomme last week, but I’m sticking with my old adage, never bet on Jake Delhomme, for 2.
Green Bay Packers 38 Detroit Lions 21
Spread: Green Bay -7
Pick against spread: Green Bay 3 units (-330)
In my opinion, week 13 turned the Packers season around. I know a double digit win against the 49ers isn’t terrible impressive, especially at home, but rookie James Starks made his season debut. For a team that hasn’t been able to run the ball at all since they lost Ryan Grant week 1, and has since suffered their only 4 losses by 3 points each, being able to run the ball is going to be huge and the fact that Starks looked good against the 49ers 3rd ranked run defense is very good news for Packers fans. He rushed for 73 yards on 18 carries, their second highest total of the year.
They might be the best team in the NFC. I know they lost to the Falcons in Atlanta, but they might have won that game if they could run and I’m almost certain they could have won that on a neutral field if they could run. This Packers team looks like the Packers team that I had winning the Super Bowl way back in August, before injuries struck. That team can almost certainly beat Drew Stanton and the Lions by 7 or more.
Atlanta Falcons 34 Carolina Panthers 16 Lock Pick
Spread: -7 Atlanta
Pick against spread: Atlanta 3 units (+300)
I am 10-2 picking Panthers games. It’s not that hard. Just bet against them unless they are facing Jake Delhomme. They’ve lost a whooping 9 games this season by double digits. If the Falcons, fresh off beating a legitimate playoff caliber team in Tampa Bay, on the road, can’t give the Panthers another double digit loss, they should be concerned. I have no problem betting the Falcons big as 7 point favorites on the road in this situation. They’ve proven they can win on the road in much tougher situations.
Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Cincinnati Bengals 23
Spread: Pittsburgh -9.5
Pick against spread: Cincinnati 4 units (-440)
Pittsburgh is not a team that beats other teams by a lot. They have three double digit wins this season and only two with Ben Roethlisberger in the lineup. They’re 9-3, but they’re a tough grind it out team who can beat good teams by less than a touchdown, but builds double digit leads against bad teams and then ultimately takes their foot off the gas and almost lets said bad team back in the game.
This is exactly what happened in Cincinnati earlier this season, a 6 point win for Pittsburgh. The Bengals, meanwhile, are the kings of back door covers. They’re great at covering a spread once the game is so far out of hand that it doesn’t matter. In fact, that seems to be their specialty.
The Bengals might not have put in a ton of effort in recent weeks, but I expect them to do so this week against a hated divisional rival and keep the final score close. The Bengals have covered 16 of the last 21 games against the Steelers in which the Steelers had previously beaten them. The only reason this isn’t a 5 unit pick is because I can see Cincinnati just not showing up. They’ve done it before.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 Washington Redskins 20
Spread: -1 Tampa Bay
Pick against spread: Tampa Bay 2 units (-20)
The book on Tampa Bay has been pretty simple this year, if the team they’re playing has a winning record, they’ll win. If not, they’ll lose. Washington sits here at 5-7 so with a fairly even spread, taking Tampa Bay makes sense.
However, Donovan McNabb is historically at his best after a loss and he’s historically at his best in December. I’m still taking the Bucs because McNabb’s supporting cast is so bad that it might not matter if he plays well, and because all of McNabb’s success in December was in Philly under Coach Andy Reid. It certainly didn’t look to carry over to Washington after he was destroyed by the rival Giants last week.
New Orleans Saints 30 St. Louis Rams 27
Spread: -9.5 New Orleans
Pick against spread: St. Louis 4 units (-440)
The upstart Rams have won their last two games on the road, after starting the year 0-4 on the road. However, winning in Denver and Arizona is nothing like winning in New Orleans. Meanwhile, New Orleans is terrible at covering double digit spreads in the Sean Peyton era, 3-9. This line isn’t quite 10 points, but that’s still worth nothing as it is a fairly large spread, over a touchdown.
This is also a potential trap game for the Saints, facing the Ravens, Falcons, and Bucs in their next 3, they may overlook the 6-6 Rams of the NFC West. The Rams are good enough to beat them if they do. I’m not going to pick the Rams to win, though they could, but the Saints are a team that lets inferior teams hang with them and this is a potential trap game and I like the Rams a lot.
The Rams actually have the league’s best record against the spread at 9-3 so I’m taking them against here for 3. For comparison, the Saints are 3-8-1 ATS. If you can get this spread at -10, take it for 5.
Miami Dolphins 23 New York Jets 20 Upset Pick (+205)
Spread: -6 NY Jets
Pick against spread: Miami 4 units (+400)
The Jets just lost on MNF by a whopping 42 points. That was their Super Bowl, essentially. They put everything into that game so that they could get homefield and now it looks like the best they can get is the 5th seed and a road first round playoff game. I don’t see any way they get up for the Dolphins this week.
Teams that lose by 17+ on MNF since 1999 are 16-34 the following week since 1999 and 1-3 this year. Teams favored after losing by 17+ on MNF are 4-15 ATS the next week. The Jets play the Steelers and the Bears in their next 2. Those are the two games they’re going to be looking forward to. I can’t see them getting up for lowly Miami, who just lost to the Browns.
Overlooking Miami is going to be a mistake. Sure they’ve been terrible at times this year, but they’ve also been good at times. They are 4-1 straight up off of a loss this year and 4-1 ATS. They also seem to play better on the road. They are 4-1 on the road and two of their three most impressive victories have come on the road this year, Green Bay in overtime and Oakland by 16.
Chad Henne was bad against the Browns, but in 3 career games against the Jets has played very well and very consistently, totaling 58 for 91 for 716 yards, 5 touchdowns, and a pick in those three games.
The Jets meanwhile, prior to the Patriots’ game, only beat 1 team by more than 6 since week 5. That one win by more than 6 was by 16 against the Bengals, who simply didn’t show up. The Jets didn’t even look good in that game. In that stretch since week 5, they hadn’t beaten a single team with a winning record.
I would argue that the Dolphins are better than any of their victories in that stretch, especially on the road coming off of a loss. I like the Dolphins to win and love them to cover. If you can get this spread -7, take it for 5. If not, 4 will do.
Denver Broncos 16 Arizona Cardinals 13
Spread: -5.5 Denver
Pick against spread: Arizona 1 unit (+100)
You’ve all heard of the Super Bowl right? The two best teams playing good football against each other. Well, this game is the Toilet Bowl. Both teams are terrible. They scored a combined 12 points last week and their quarterbacks were a combined 16 for 48 for 210 yards, no touchdowns, and a pick. They Broncos have fired their coach, who is also their offensive coordinator, and are down to their running backs coach calling the plays and being the head coach.
Derek Anderson is being checked out for a “head injury” this week so he probably will not start. Max Hall (he of the 4 for 16 in Seattle earlier this year) won’t play either, meaning the Cardinals would be down to John Skelton at quarterback. Skelton is a talented rookie out of Fordham, but he is very raw and widely regarded as someone who is a longterm project rather than a year 1 starter.
This game isn’t a pick between which team I like more, but rather which team I hate less. I said I wouldn’t bet on the Cardinals for the rest of the season a few weeks ago, but I can’t, in my right mind, but on the Broncos as 5.5 point favorites, after their performance last week, making an impromptu coaching change to someone who wasn’t groomed for the job. I’m taking the underdog for 1.
New England Patriots 31 Chicago Bears 16
Spread: -3 Chicago
Pick against spread: New England 4 units (+400)
The Patriots coming off of a 42 point win on MNF and are clearly the best football team in the world. Yet they’re only 3 point favorites over the Bears, who barely beat the Lions? Huh? The Bears’ record might look nice, but I haven’t been terribly impressed with any of their wins, including over the Asante Samuel-less Eagles.
Their downside is also very bad, as we saw with them against the Redskins (4 picks), and Giants (10 sacks). Bill Belicheck runs one of the most confusing defenses in the league. They might give up a ton of yards, but as we saw on MNF, they take the ball away from you, bad news for Jay Cutler who has had issues with interceptions throughout his career. Belicheck’s squad will bring pressure and force the ball out of Cutler’s hands.
They can forget about running the ball if Tom Brady plays well. They won’t be able to. If this team can’t run, they can’t win. Running the football has been the key to their success since the bye.
The Patriots are also coming off a 17+ point win on MNF. Teams who win by more than 17 on MNF are 37-22 the next week ATS. Teams in that situation are 3-1 this year. Forget any potential hangover with this Patriots team after they beat the Jets. Not only do teams do well after big MNF wins, the Pats are coached by Bill Belicheck who won’t let them go complacent.
Neither will Tom Brady. Tom Brady is pissed off at the world for doubting him and he’s taking it out on everyone he plays this year. The Bears will be no exception.
The Patriots are averaging over 30 points a game this year and have scored 30+ in each of their last 4. If they do that again, which is likely, the Bears will have to score 27+ to cover. As good as their defense is, the Bears have only scored more than 27 once this year and they can forget about doing that if they can’t run.
San Francisco 49ers 20 Seattle Seahawks 13
Spread: San Francisco -4.5
Pick against spread: San Francisco 1 unit (+100)
The 49ers are 4-8 on the year, but they’re 3-2 in San Francisco and 2-1 against this miserable division. They will start Alex Smith once again in this one. Seattle is not a very good team, especially not on the road, where they are 2-4 this year. The Seahawks won this game in Seattle earlier this year, but the 49ers are better since then.
If you remember, the 49ers struggled to get their plays into their quarterback that whole game week 1. Plus, this game is in San Francisco which works to the 49ers advantage in more ways than one. The 49ers might not be able to pass, but in the swirling winds of Candlestick, against the Seahawks struggling run defense, they might not have to. I don’t like the idea of picking the 4-8 Niners as 4.5 point favorites, but I’m doing it for 1 unit.
San Diego Chargers 27 Kansas City Chiefs 17
Spread: -9.5 San Diego
Pick against spread: San Diego 1 unit (+100)
Someone must have changed Norv Turner’s calendar to September. In their 15 point home loss to the Raiders last week, this team looked like how they normally do in September rather than December. If they had won that game, I would have pounded this 7 point line in favor of San Diego. They really looked like a legitimate Super Bowl team before last week. Now, I’m not sure I trust them.
Still, their December record can’t be ignored. In December in the Norv Turner era, their record and accomplishments can’t be ignored. Even with that loss to Oakland factored, in, they are still 19-1 in their last 20 December/January regular season games and 14-1 in the Norv Turner era. In fact, some might even argue we are getting line value with the Chargers -7 after their loss.
On paper, the Chargers should win this game easily. The Chargers rank 2nd in total offense and total defense. However, this game is more than what you see on paper. The Chargers have shot themselves in the foot countless times this year, with fumbles, big plays allowed, penalties, and most notably special teams gaffes. Remember they were supposed to beat the Chiefs week 1 and lost by 7 despite the fact that Matt Cassel threw for 68 yards for the Chiefs. I’m picking the Chargers for 2, but I’m not terribly confident in that.
Update: Matt Cassel had an appendectomy today and thus his status for this game is much in doubt. The line has been taken down in almost all books. If you got this line at -7 and picked the Chargers, as was my original recommendation. Congrats. If Cassel misses this game, this line isn’t going anywhere, but up. I’ll have a new pick if Cassel is out.
Update: Cassel is officially listed as doubtful for this game, confirming what medical experts and average Joe fans knew for days, he won’t play this week. Backup Brody Croyle will start and thus this line has moved to -9.5. Any confidence I had in the Chargers at -7, is now almost gone.
I know what you’re thinking, the Chargers have locked this one up with Cassel out. Croyle and Cassel are very similar quarterbacks, limited arm strength, but very careful with the ball, not going to turn it over, and can game manage this offense, based on the running game, to the end zone. Croyle was once a big time prospect before injuries hit and derailed his career.
The Chiefs also are now a good team playing with their backup quarterback, which means they’ll probably play at 110% to compensate, as if they needed any more motivation in their biggest game since 2006. The Chargers also might overlook the Chiefs without Cassel and the Chiefs are a team that can beat them if that happens. I know it’s a huge game for the Chargers, but they have the tendency to disappear in big games at times. I’m sticking with the Chargers because they are clearly the more talented team and because of their amazing December record, but only for 1 unit and if you can get this line at 10+, take the Chiefs.
Philadelphia Eagles 34 Dallas Cowboys 24
Spread: Philadelphia -3.5
Pick against spread: Philadelphia 2 units (-220)
Last week, the Eagles played the Texans and it was Michael Vick against one of the worst defenses in the league. This week, Vick is against another of the league’s worst defenses, the Cowboys. The Cowboys, statistically have been even worse defensively since Jason Garrett took over, especially against the pass. I can’t see them holding Vick and this explosive Eagles offense under 30.
That’s going to put the burden on the Dallas offense, but as they showed last week, they can hang with teams offensively even with Jon Kitna at quarterback. Unfortunately for Kitna, his favorite target Dez Bryant is done for the year with an ankle injury. That has to hurt the journeyman quarterback. I don’t like his chances to keep this within 3 at home at all. If you can get this spread at -3, take it for 3. If not, 2 will do.
Minnesota Vikings 24 New York Giants 20 Upset Pick (+205)
Spread: -4.5 NY Giants
Pick against spread: Minnesota 3 units (-330)
The New York Giants typically have a second half swoon. They are 2-2 in the season half of the season. That isn’t great, especially not compared to the 6-2 they were earlier in the season, but that record alone hardly constitutes a swoon. However, their losses to Philly and Dallas were sloppy and Jacksonville dominated them before disappearing in the final quarter. Washington was their most impressive victory and that was last week, but Washington simply didn’t show up to that one. It doesn’t help the Giants that they’ve had injuries. Both of their starting receivers, Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks, are expected to miss this game again, as well as a few key offensive linemen.
Minnesota, meanwhile, is playing like everyone thought they would in their last 2, after firing Brad Childress and going with Leslie Frazier. Brett Favre is probably going to start this game over Tarvaris Jackson. Jackson led the Vikings to a very impressive win over the Bills last week, but was erratic, throwing 3 picks, including a pick six. He was lucky he had Adrian Peterson on his side. Brett Favre still remains their best option in the shorterm.
In addition to Peterson’s great game last week, the Vikings’ defense also had the type of performance we were expecting out of them to start the season. I know the Bills aren’t great, but they have put up good numbers against some fairly impressive defenses this year. The defense also came up big against Washington 2 weeks ago in a win. The Vikings also have Sidney Rice at full strength after a lengthy earlier season injury, a huge part of their recent success. Favre and Rice were a golden combo last year so Favre has to be thrilled that Rice had his breakout game last week.
Minnesota is streaking right now and playing like they were supposed to and the Giants are struggling in the 2nd half. Now the Giants have to go into Minnesota, where the Vikings were 8-0 last year and where they are 4-2 this year, despite their 5-7 record overall. The Giants could also be caught looking forward to Philly and Green Bay in weeks 15 and 16 and might also be complacent after their huge victory over the Redskins. It’s also worth noting that the Giants have lost their last 4 against Minnesota, including defeats in each of the last 3 seasons. I expect that to continue this year.
I’m fairly confident in the Vikings to win straight up. If Favre’s status for this game changes, my pick (and probably the line) will change as well and in that case, I’ll do another pick, but, like I’ve said before, I’ll believe Favre sits when I see it.
Update: Line has moved to 4 in the wake of the game being moved to the neutral site, Detroit. Plus, the Giants likely haven’t gotten much time to practice this week with a hectic travel week, which left them stuck in Kansas City because of all the snow in Minnesota.
I can’t say what type of crowd Detroit will be. There are arguments for both, pro-Giants as the Vikings are divisional rivals, or pro-Vikings because it is still near Minnesota and because the Lions are too far out for this game to matter. However, the Vikings won’t have the same home field advantage as they would have had.
However, the Giants are still swooning, the Vikings are still streaking, and the Vikings have still had Eli Manning’s number in his career. With the line going to over a field goal, I still feel comfortable taking the Vikings for 3. Brett Favre says he’s not likely to play, but the pick stays the same with Tarvaris Jackson in the lineup. Jackson isn’t playing any worse than Favre right now and his athleticism might help them against the Giants’ fierce pass rush.
Houston Texans 23 Baltimore Ravens 17 Upset Pick (+129)
Spread: Baltimore -3
Pick against spread: Houston 3 units (-330)
This is a Monday Night Football game, which means we will have to endure Jon Gruden’s nonsense comments and non-stop praise of everyone on the field. It also means we have to endure the worst analysis on TV by the Monday Night Countdown crew as they make their picks. Among some of their “analysis” last week were the following.
Steve Young: It’s my son Braden’s 10th birthday and we call him Brady B. The stars are aligned. I’m taking the Pats.
Matt Millen: I think Tom Brady is the best quarterback on the field. I’m taking the Pats.
Keyshawn Johnson: Yo, I gotta lotta love for New York, but I gotta go Pats.
These are only a few examples of their “analysis.” Most of the time they just say they’re picking a team because that’s the better team. Week 12, Chris Berman picked the 49ers to win 19-16 because that was an important date in San Francisco history. I can only imagine what they will say next week as the Ravens head to Houston to take on the Texans.
Steve Young: Three days ago was my 2nd cousin 3 times removed ex-roommate’s son’s sister’s birthday and she was married to a Chinese man and Chinese people love Rice. The stars are aligned. I’m going with Ray Rice and the Ravens.
Matt Millen: I think Texans have scored more points this season. I’m taking the Texans.
Chris Berman: WHOOP! Matt Schaub was born in 1981. I’m taking the Texans to win 19 to 81. WHOOP! WHOOP! WHOOP!
Keyshawn Johnson: Yo, I got mad love for Ray Lewis, but I gotta go with the Texans.
Tom Jackson: This is going to be a huge game for the Texans. They’re never in the spotlight and will capitalize on having a home Monday Night Football game. They also play their best football when they’re out of it. I’m taking the Texans.
Chris Mortensen: What Tom said sounds smart. I’m going with him.
Stuart Scott: I don’t know anything about football. I’m taking the Ravens.
Mike Ditka: Well you know guys, when I was the coach of the Chicago Bears, I wasn’t the coach of the Houston Texans, so I’m going with the Ravens.
Cris Carter: I think the Ravens have the better team. I’m taking the Ravens.
Now for some real analysis. Going off of what the fake version of the only good Monday Night Countdown analyst Tom Jackson said, the Houston Texans don’t get a lot of national publicity. They don’t often have Monday Night home games and they do often play their best football when they’re out of it.
Remember last year they fell to 5-7, as they are now, and then reeled off 4 straight wins in impressive fashion. They did a similar thing in 2008 as they went 5-1 down the stretch after falling to 3-7. I’m taking them as the underdogs to do that this week at home against a Baltimore team that is coming off of a disappointing loss to the Steelers. Also remember the Texans have had 11 days to prepare for this following their week 13 Thursday Night game.
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