By Vince Vitale
John Clayton of ESPN.com wrote an interesting piece ranking NFL quarterbacks. John tells us who he believes are the elite quarterbacks in the NFL and who he believes has a chance to become an elite quarterback. John’s definition of an elite quarterback is; “An elite quarterback is one who can complete better than 60 percent of his passes, has the potential to throw for 4,000 yards and has fourth-quarter comeback ability.”
It appears that not only Rams fans are getting excited about the future of Sam Bradford after his great night against the New England Patriots, John Clayton is impressed as well. John Clayton gives Sam Bradford a 85% chance of becoming an elite QB in the NFL. Imagine that after only 3 preseason games and missing most of his 2009 college season Bradford is still held in high regard. How high, well ONLY Jay Cutler was ranked with a higher chance (95). That’s right John Clayton prefers the potential of Sam Bradford over Mark Sanchez, Matt Stafford, and Kevin Kolb.
Senior Bowl Monday
Weigh ins
RB Isaiah Pead (Cincinnati) DOWN
The 2nd smallest of the backs and doesn’t have Chris Rainey’s speed, measuring in at 193 (5-9 7/8) rather than the 200 he was listed will hurt him. Pead was good in bursts last season, but didn’t break a lot of tackles. He looks like nothing more than a backup at the next level. 8 5/8 inch hands don’t help either. Those were the smallest of the running back group and small hands normally are a sign that a player will be a poor pass catcher, pass blocker, and have fumbles troubles at the next level.
WR Patrick Edwards (Houston) DOWN
We knew he was small but 5-8 7/8 168 is tiny. Edwards is fast and was productive in college, but that’s about it. He comes from a gimmicky offense that inflates stats (3 receivers over 900+ yards) and didn’t even lead his team in catches. He also had several drops and his 8 ½ inch hands explain that. I wouldn’t draft him.
WR Jeff Fuller (Texas A&M) UP
Most receivers tend to measure in a little shorter than they were listed, especially taller receivers, up to 1 to 2 inches at times. However, Fuller measured in a bit taller than he was listed. Listed at 6-4, Fuller came in a tick over 6-4 1/8. He’s a physical freak at 217 pounds and in great shape. He also had the longest arms of any receiver with 34 1/8 inch arms. He’s got all the tools and showed first round talent as a junior, before an injury riddled senior season. There’s upside to be had here on day 2.
WR Marquis Maze (Alabama) DOWN
In the same boat as Edwards, Maze was tiny at 5-7 6/8 184 pounds. 29 3/8 inch arms and 9 inch hands won’t help anything either. He looks like he’ll have to stick to special teams in the NFL, so it’s good he’s an above average punt return. He could still get drafted late.
TE Ladarius Green (Louisiana-Lafayette) UP
Still has some work to do, but Green took the first step to proving he was more than just a pass catcher measuring in at 237 rather than 230, his listed weight. If he can get up into the 240s by combine time, that will really help his stock. He also lived up to his 6-6 height at 6-5 6/8 and had the biggest hands (10 inches) of any tight end. I’ll be looking closely to see how he fares as a blocker this week because he was a phenomenal pass catcher in college. Even if he’s not the best blocker, some team could draft him in the 3rd or 4th round as an Aaron Hernandez type.
TE DeAngelo Peterson (LSU) DOWN
Peterson really doesn’t look the part of an NFL tight end. A situational player for LSU last year, Peterson was the lightest of the 6 tight ends (230), had the shortest arms (32 inches), and the only ones shorter (6-2 7/8) and with smaller hands (9 ½) are being looked at primarily as fullbacks.
G Tony Bergstrom (Utah) DOWN
A tackle in college, 31 3/8 inch arms and 9 inch hands likely mean Bergstrom will have to make the move to guard at the next level.
OT Matt McCants (UAB) UP
McCants did a good job of bulking up from 295 to 309. If he carries it well, the small school prospect should see his stock increase. 35 inch arms also help as he tries to stay at offensive tackle.
C William Vlachos (Alabama) DOWN
He may be a center, but 30 inch arms on an offensive lineman is never a good thing. Neither are 9 1/8 inch hands. He also had a sloppy body.
DE Vinny Curry (Marshall) UP
Curry answered some questions about his ability to play with his hand in the ground by weighing in at 265 pounds. Let’s see how he carries it throughout the week.
DE Melvin Ingram (South Carolina) DOWN
It’s a shame because he’s got such a great motor, but being 6-1 7/8 and having 30 ½ inch arms won’t help Ingram at defensive end. He may be a rush linebacker, but that’s also a bit of a stretch at 276 pounds and having played half his snaps at defensive tackle last year. Brandon Graham overcame the same dilemma to be Senior Bowl MVP a couple years ago and get drafted 13th overall, but he hasn’t done anything in his career.
DE Shea McClellin (Boise State) DOWN
At 248 pounds with 31 ¾ inch arms, McClellin is going to be passed up by a lot of 4-3 teams. He’s still a great pass rusher who played some linebacker last year so 3-4 teams will be interested in him, but he really should have done what Von Miller did last year and played 4-3 outside linebacker in the Senior Bowl. Miller was once “undraftable” by 4-3 teams but a good Senior Bowl week propelled him to the 2nd overall pick.
DE Courtney Upshaw (Alabama) UP
Upshaw played 3-4 outside linebacker in college, but is going to appeal to more 4-3 teams now that he weighed in at 273. Upshaw will play with his hand in the ground this week and that could really help his stock if he plays well. 31 ½ inch arms aren’t the best, but that aren’t a deal breaker for a 4-3 team.
CB Janoris Jenkins (North Alabama) DOWN
Jenkins is built at 191 pounds, but not a lot of good cornerbacks in the league are 5-10 or shorter so I’m moving Jenkins down just a hair for measuring in at 5-9 6/8.
S Brandon Taylor (LSU) UP
A former cornerback, Taylor had a great year at safety for LSU this year but needed to move into 200s to be taken more seriously as a starting safety prospect. Going from 195 to 202 will help him.
Practice
WR Brian Quick (Appalachian State) UP
A small school prospect from Appalachian State, Quick definitely proved he belonged as he was one of the better receivers out there. He was had a great day in the weigh ins at 6-3 4/8 222 with 33 ½ inch arms and 9 7/8 inch hands.
WR Gerell Robinson (Arizona State) UP
The other best receiver out there was Robinson, who really came on late in the season. Like Quick, he had a good weigh in as well at 6-3 1/8 223 with 30 7/8 inch arms and 10 inch hands.
WR Marvin Jones (California) UP
He might not have been the best receiver out there, but he looked better than I remember him last season at California. That might have had something to do with him playing in Keenan Allen’s shadow. 10 inch hands are also a plus.
QB Kellen Moore (Boise State) DOWN
Moore clearly has the weakest arm of any quarterback there. He struggled with deep balls and throwing outside the numbers. Once he has to do more of that, as he will in the NFL, he’ll be exposed.
CB Alfonzo Dennard (Nebraska) DOWN
Measuring in at 5-10 flat is not ideal, but it’s not the worst thing in the world even for a first round prospect. He just didn’t look like a first round prospect out there and got burnt on several occasions. Mike Mayock was not impressed.
CB Asa Jacskon (Cal Poly) DOWN
He sucks. He was the worst cornerback out there. He didn’t look like he belonged from Cal Poly and his measurables weren’t very good either. 28 5/8 inch arms are cartoonish.
DT Alameda Ta’amu (Washington) DOWN
Ta’amu continued to be one of the most overrated players in the country. He looks the part of a nose tackle at 341 and he’s not flabby, but he didn’t look the part of a dominant prospect out there and he hasn’t all year. I have no idea why he’s being considered a potential first rounder.
G Kelechi Osemele (Iowa State) DOWN
Osemele should not be playing right tackle. Cam Johnson had a field day, consistently beating him with his speed rush. Osemele is a much better guard so hopefully the coaches move him there for the rest of the week.
DE Cam Johnson (Virginia) UP
Johnson either looks dominant or invisible on tape, but today he was dominant. Osemele had no chance against him.
Stanford/Washington
Spotlight #1: Stanford G David DeCastro
Spotlight #2: Washington WR Jermaine Kearse
1st quarter
13:47: DeCastro with good speed and hand use on a pull block.
8:57: Kearse can’t quite catch a pass over the middle against tough coverage.
8:18: DeCastro allows a man to beat him, defensive lineman can’t get pressure it’s a roll out.
5:49: Kearse takes a dump off for a few, but Stanford’s swarming defense does a good job of containing him.
3:00: Chris Polk, who had been bottled up to this point in the game, with a long touchdown run, breaking a few tackles along the way. He’s impressed me tonight getting a few yards on plays with awful blocking and then, of course, here on this long run. He’s in the running for the #2 back behind Trent Richardson. I was also impressed with him against Nebraska, a tough defense. He wasn’t tackled for a loss that entire game.
2:50: DeCastro with a nice pull block.
1:59: DeCastro helps open a big hole, but the running back doesn’t see it and runs right into a pile for a gain of no more than a yard.
1:17: DeCastro with an awesome run block to open up a long run. 30 yards.
2nd quarter
14:54: DeCastro can pass block too. Nice job.
13:34: Polk with a 61 yard touchdown. Very impressive back.
13:22: Led by DeCastro, Stanford gets a huge touchdown run by Stepfan Taylor. 70 yards.
12:01: Kearse catches a quick slant against bad coverage. Able to get a few afterwards with decent straight line speed.
11:31: Kearse drops an accurate ball after a nice route. That could have been a sizeable gain. Terrible.
6:42: DeCastro with a nice 2nd level block. Very mobile.
3rd quarter
12:12: DeCastro pushes two guys off the play on separate 2nd level blocks.
11:45: DeCastro with a nice 2nd level block on a 30 yard run.
11:16: DeCastro on a nice 2nd level block on a rushing touchdown.
11:06: Chase Thomas takes down Chris Polk by himself for a loss. That doesn’t happen very often.
10:20: Thomas in on another tackle for loss on Polk. He had help this time. Stanford is manhandling a terrible Washington offensive line.
8:53: DeCastro with another great pull block.
0:13: Kearse with a nice catch over the middle.
4th quarter
14:33: Kearse catches it short, nice job of fending off a few tacklers to get a few. Fumbles out of bounds.
13:26: Kearse bobbles and drops a fade in the end zone.
9:19: DeCastro with a nice 2nd level block on a sizable touchdown run.
0:00: DeCastro, simply put, had a dominant game, especially against the run. He blocks in the 2nd level extremely well and he pull blocks extremely well. He’s best fit as a zone blocking player at the next level because of his mobility, but he’ll work in whatever scheme. He wasn’t a bad pass protector either. He’s part of a Stanford line that has allowed 2 sacks all season. He had a pretty perfect game here as Stanford ran for 446 yards on the night. Stanford has had a terrific running game all season and DeCastro’s dominant blocking of all forms has been a big part of the reason. He is still a guard, however, so I can’t rate him too high. He also hasn’t had a particularly tough schedule.
Washington doesn’t have a bad defensive line, however. Defensive tackle Alameda Ta’amu is a potential first round pick from Washington, but he had a terrible game tonight as Stanford’s offensive line manhandled him, especially against the run, which is supposed to be the 330 pounder’s strength. He wasn’t even matched up with DeCastro on most plays, though when he was, DeCastro dominated him.
The two other first rounders on Stanford’s offense are Jonathan Martin and, of course, Andrew Luck. Luck was 16 of 21 for 169 yards and 2 touchdowns. This game doesn’t affect his stock in anyway because he didn’t have to do anything to win. Martin was part of Stanford’s strong run blocking line and once again didn’t allow any sacks. He’ll be tested for the first time all season next week against USC’s Nick Perry.
Washington’s Chris Polk is in the running to be the 2nd running back off the board behind Trent Richardson. Polk rushed for 144 yards and 2 touchdowns on 15 carries despite the fact that Stanford was manhandling Washington’s awful offensive front. When Washington blocked well, Polk was able to pick up huge chunks of yardage. When they didn’t, Polk did a very good job of getting something. He wasn’t tackled for a loss at all against Nebraska the last time I watched him and tonight, when he was, it was very rare and because of how well Stanford was playing. There was only one play where he was solo tackled for a loss and that was by Stanford linebacker Chase Thomas.
Thomas was the standout on Stanford’s impressive front 7. Thomas plays 3-4 rush linebacker for Stanford. He has 5.5 sacks on the season and could be getting day 2 consideration if he keeps this up, though he was hardly going against a strong offensive line this week. We’ll see how he does against USC next week. At 239 pounds, he is a bit undersized to be a 3-4 rush linebacker.
The other spotlight in this game was Jermaine Kearse. Kearse caught 4 passes for 52 yards, but he didn’t stand out much. He was only his team’s 3rd leading receiver and he dropped a couple of passes, including a touchdown. Drops have been an issue for him all season. Kearse has been playing better of late, but he’s having a disappointing senior season. After 63 catches for 1005 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2009, he has just 27 catches for 336 yards and 6 touchdowns in 7 games in 2010. He’s not his team’s leader in yards and he’s barely his team’s leader in receptions. He seems to miss Jake Locker. He’s athletic enough at 6-2 210 to get some mid round consideration, but I don’t know how good this guy can be at the next level. He’s not productive and he has problems with drops.
Syd’Quan Thomspon Scout
Cornerback
California
5-9 186
40 time (projected): 4.46
Draft board overall prospect rank: #84
Draft board cornerback rank: #11
Overall rating: 73*
1/23/10: He’s ready for the NFL right now as a nickelback, but he lacks the upside, athleticism, and coverage skills to be a future starting cornerback. He is 5-9 and could run a 40 in the 4.5s which could drop him into the 4th round. He also returns punts well.
Update (11/2/09): Burnt far too often, but is an NFL ready nickel corner drawing comparisons to 2009 2nd round pick Alphonso Smith.
9/19/09: Syd’Quan Thompson is a strong tough cornerback that will be a tough matchup for even NFL wide receivers because of his strength and physicality. He is an amazing pass rusher for a cornerback with 13.5 TFL and 2 sacks in his career and will be used very effectively on cornerback blitzes in the NFL. I’m not sure right now if he projects as a starting cornerback, but he can be a strong blitzing nickel corner. He’s strong in run support which is always a plus with your cornerback and he tackles very strongly. He isn’t very tall, but he’s thick, muscular, especially in the core area, and has a lot of fight in him. He also displays great quickness on punt returns, taking off right where DeSean Jackson, now of the Eagles, left off after he left Cal. He needs some more on man-to-man coverage as he’s been beaten more than you’d like in college. He doesn’t have great positioning or backpedal in the defensive backfield and he does not have the elite recovery speed to compensate. A good defensive backs coach can get a lot out of him though. He has started every game since stepping on the campus in 2006 and has become a strong defensive leader for the Golden Bears. Every defense he has been on has been a good one and that might not be a coincidence. He has good hands and makes a fair number of plays on the ball with 26 pass breakups and 6 interceptions in 3 season. He doesn’t have elite height, 5-9, or elite timed speed, mid-to-late 4.4s, though he plays a little faster than he’s timed. His lack of elite height will hurt him, but corners have survived in the NFL at 5-9 before. I’m not sure he has great upside or that he will ever be an effective every play starter at cornerback, but he can contribute to teams right away on blitzing plays, as a nickel corner, and as a punt returner.
NFL Comparison: Alphonso Smith
*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here
Texans Tailgate
By Trey Huguley
On Thursday the Houston Texans administration made a new rule regarding tailgating on the grounds of Reliant Stadium on Gamedays. Beginning week 5 against the New York Giants, to be allowed onto Reliant grounds tailgaters will be required to either A) have a ticket to the game or B) have one of 2000 tailgating passess that will be issued/sold by the team. The team enacted this rule for a number of reasons, but two that stand out high above the others that are geared toward improving the experience for people who actually spend money to go to the game. One – it should alleviate some of the traffic around the Reliant area and Two – it will open up parking options that would normally have been taken by squaters who weren’t even attending the game.
This move has created quite a bit of outrage from Texans fans who spend every home game hanging out in the parking lot, eating barbecue, drinking way too much and starting fights; the whole time wishing the whole time they were actually in the stadium. To these fans, I say, “Tough! Deal with it. Why don’t you spend time watching the game from the comfort of your own couch with your family, with friends at a Bar or have a game watching BBQ.”
Why in the world they want to deal with the masses of people to tailgate in front of a stadium for a game that starts at noon will always baffle me.
Sure, I enjoy going to one or two games a year when I have a chance. And sure, when I do, I certainly wander around the parking lot in search of beer and barbecue, but come game time – I’m in my seat, ready to yell. Then for the other 6 home games a year, I couldn’t be happier with a beer on my couch or out at the local sports bar enjoying the game way more than I would at a tailgate for a game that I didn’t even have tickets.
Personally I see this new rule as a great thing for the Houston Texans organization, their fans and the city of Houston. Not only will this keep out the riff-raff and free up some of the parking for actual patrons, but it will also do quite a few other positive things. For one – it will help the economy of Houston. Sports bars and restaurants all over the city will see much busier Sunday afternoons when the 20,000 plus displaced fans decide they want to go “somewhere” to watch the game. If these establishment run specials and market the heck out of them, they could make Sunday one of their biggest revenue days of the week.
The rule will also keep actual transients as well as transient away fans out of the stadium grounds. In the past, there has been a bit of a problem with fans of other teams showing up just to start trouble. Gangs, thugs and bums have also found their way out on Sunday’s to beg for food, rob people and start fights. While this wasn’t a common occurance, the new passing will keep these unwanted guests from crashing the party.
Texans fans have been notorious for not being in their seats come kick off time and spending half the game outside tailgating with their buddies that didn’t have tickets rather than cheering on the team. As we saw in the opening day against the Colts, the power of a loud stadium can be the determining factor in the game. Less people around who don’t have tickets means more people will be in their seats for the game. This will obviously result in more wins.
All in all, I applaud the Texans for making this move to expunge the non-true Texans fans who just like to be passive in their fannism treating it as a social event rather than a game. Go watch the game else where or buy a ticket, hippies.
http://www.houstonsportblog.com/
Top 100 Cheat Sheet
For printer friendly, click here
1. Adrian Peterson
2. Chris Johnson
3. Ray Rice
4. Maurice Jones Drew
5. Andre Johnson
6. Frank Gore
7. Aaron Rodgers
8. Michael Turner
9. Rashard Mendenhall
10. Steven Jackson
11. Miles Austin
12. Shonn Greene
13. Drew Brees
14. Ryan Grant
15. Jamaal Charles
16. Cedric Benson
17. Randy Moss
18. Jonathan Stewart
19. DeAngelo Williams
20. Peyton Manning
21. Calvin Johnson
22. Tony Romo
23. Tom Brady
24. Ryan Mathews
25. Matt Schaub
26. DeSean Jackson
27. Roddy White
28. Brandon Marshall
29. Greg Jennings
30. Steve Smith (CAR)
31. Knowshon Moreno
32. Reggie Wayne
33. Pierre Thomas
34. Larry Fitzgerald
35. LeSean McCoy
36. Jahvid Best
37. Joseph Addai
38. Marion Barber
39. Marques Colston
40. Steve Smith (NYG)
41. Malcom Floyd
42. Wes Welker
43. Antonio Gates
44. Dallas Clark
45. Arian Foster
46. Jerome Harrison
47. Ahmad Bradshaw
48. Ronnie Brown
49. Mike Sims Walker
50. Anquan Boldin
51. Vernon Davis
52. Pierre Garcon
53. Michael Crabtree
54. Philip Rivers
55. Dwayne Bowe
56. Hakeem Nicks
57. Terrell Owens
58. Chad Ochocinco
59. Hines Ward
60. Derrick Mason
61. Brent Celek
62. Mike Wallace
63. Robert Meachem
64. Jason Witten
65. Tony Gonzalez
66. Santana Moss
67. Michael Bush
68. Jeremy Maclin
69. Zach Miller
70. Jermichael Finley
71. Brandon Jacobs
72. Brett Favre
73. Percy Harvin
74. Matt Forte
75. Jay Cutler
76. Ricky Williams
77. Mohamed Massaquoi
78. Kellen Winslow
79. Tim Hightower
80. CJ Spiller
81. Chris Wells
82. Visanthe Shiancoe
83. Thomas Jones
84. Mike Williams
85. Dez Bryant
86. Jabar Gaffney
87. Bernard Berrian
88. Donald Driver
89. Johnny Knox
90. Greg Olsen
91. Reggie Bush
92. Joe Flacco
93. Lee Evans
94. Donovan McNabb
95. Cadillac Williams
96. Leon Washington
97. Clinton Portis
98. Louis Murphy
99. Owen Daniels
100. Carson Palmer
Vick Ballard Scout
Running Back
Mississippi State
5-10 219
Draft board overall prospect rank: #109
Draft board overall running back rank: #8
Overall rating: 65 (3rd/4th round)
40 time: 4.63
Games watched: LSU/Mississippi State, Mississippi State/Wake Forest
Positives
· Powerful runner
· Good size (5-10 219)
· Great north/south runner
· Runs well between the tackles
· Explosive to the hole
· Powerful lower body
· Tough to tackle
· Good pad level
· 2 year starter
· Productive in tough conference (2010: 186 carries for 968 yards and 19 touchdowns, 2011: 193 carries for 1189 yards and 10 touchdowns)
· Succeeded with little supporting cast
· Improved pass catcher (20 catches as a senior)
· Great work ethic (not highly recruited, went to JuCo, turned into Mississippi State’s leading rusher)
· Good pass protector
Negatives
· Poor 40 time (4.63)
· Not a good outside runner
· Doesn’t have breakaway speed
· Not quick
· Doesn’t break a lot of tackles in space
· Never carried a big load
· Not a good natural athlete
· Pass catching still could improve (wouldn’t trust on 3rd down right away)
· Durability?
· Ball security?
· Struggled against Alabama and LSU (who didn’t?)
NFL Comparison: Daniel Thomas
Vick Ballard reminds me of Daniel Thomas. Thomas was a 2nd round pick last year after 2 years as a starter at Kansas State. Like Ballard, he’s a former JuCo player. Both are powerful backs without a ton of speed or mobility. Thomas ran a 4.60 at 6-1 228. Ballard ran a 4.63 at 5-11 218. Both are also solid pass catchers with some fumble problems. They have very similar running styles.
I thought Thomas was a bit overdrafted in the 2nd round last year. Ballard will probably be a 5th round pick or so and I think he’ll be a little underdrafted. He can be a solid tandem back at the next level, which is what Thomas became as a rookie in Miami with Reggie Bush. That appears to be his best role going forward, rather than a 3 down back, which is what you’re typically looking for in the 2nd round. I have a borderline 3rd/4th grade on him and I think he’ll make some team very happy in the mid to late rounds. He’s an underrated back who put up good numbers on a poor team against tough competition in the SEC.
Week 10 Preview
11/3/11 8 PM ET
Florida State at Boston College
OLB Nigel Bradham (Florida State) #13
Out of the speedy linebacker factory that is Florida State, the 6-1 240 pound Nigel Bradham has 45 tackles, 4.5 for loss, 2 sacks, 2 pass deflections, and a pick in 8 games this season. He’s a 3 year starter and a very fundamental sound player who looks like a mid rounder.
CB Donnie Fletcher (Boston College) #4
Fletcher’s stock is slipping this season as he hasn’t played well as a senior. However, he was a potential day 2 prospect coming into the season and if he starts playing better, he could be an interesting mid rounder.
10/29/11 12 PM ET (ESPN 3 Replay)
Michigan State at Nebraska
CB Alfonzo Dennard (Nebraska) #15
Dennard came into the year as a first round pick at cornerback, but injuries have hurt him and he’s been exposed without Prince Amukamara opposite him. He’s slipping right now and could end up in the 2nd round or later unless he can have a good game against a pair of potential day 2 picks, wide receiver BJ Cunningham and Quarterback Kirk Cousins throwing to him.
S Trenton Robinson (Michigan State) #39
Robinson had 76 tackles and 4 picks in 2010 and now has 31 tackles, 2 picks, a tackle for loss, a sack and a pass deflection in 7 games this season. In a weak safety class, he could end up in day 2.
11/5/11 12 PM ET
Michigan at Iowa
WR Marvin McNutt (Iowa) #7
No Ricky Stanzi, no problem. The 6-4 215 pound McNutt is putting it all together in his senior season with 48 catches for 878 yards and 9 touchdowns in just 8 games. He looks like a day 2 prospect at the moment, but if he keeps this up, he could go higher.
CB Shaun Prater (Iowa) #28
One of two potential day 2 prospects at cornerback for Iowa, Prater has a pick six this season and has done a good job in coverage overall. He had 4 picks with a pick six last season.
10/29/11 3:30 PM ET (ESPN 3 Replay)
West Virginia at Rutgers
WR Mohamed Sanu (Rutgers) #6
The 6-3 215 pound Sanu took over where Kenny Britt left off after Britt went in the first round to the Titans in 2009. Sanu caught 51 passes for 639 yards and 3 touchdowns in 2009 as a freshman. Poor quarterback play in 2010 limited him to 44 catches for 418 yards and 2 scores, but he’s taken his game to a whole different level this year with 65 catches for 683 yards and 6 touchdowns in just 7 games even though his quarterback play still hasn’t been good. He could end up a first round pick like Britt before him. He’ll be matched up with Keith Tandy, a potential mid round pick, in this one.
DE Manny Abreu (Rutgers) #51
Abreu plays end and outside linebacker for Rutgers and at 6-3 260, he looks like a prototypical 4-3 defensive end or 3-4 outside linebacker. In 7 games this season, he has 17 tackles, 4.5 for loss, and 2.5 sacks.
10/29/11 8 PM ET (ESPN 3 Replay)
Wisconsin at Ohio State
WR Nick Toon (Wisconsin) #1
Nick Toon (yes, that’s his real name) caught 54 passes for 805 yards and 4 touchdowns as a sophomore in 2009, but struggled last year with just 36 catches for 459 yards and 3 touchdowns. Now healthy again, Toon has become Russell Wilson’s favorite target this year with 27 catches for 505 yards and 6 touchdowns in 6 games. The son of former Jet Al Toon, Toon has impressed me this season on tape and I’m looking forward to spotlighting him. Before tweaking his foot and not playing against Indiana and then struggling against Michigan State, Toon’s stock had moved all the way into the 2nd or 3rd round range. If he can turn things back around, he’ll stay in that range.
RB Dan Herron (Ohio State) #1
After an awesome season in 2010 where the 5-10 205 pound Herron rushed for 1155 yards and 16 touchdowns on 216 carries, Herron was suspended for 6 games to start this season. He played well in his season debut against Illinois, rushing for 114 yards and a score on 23 carries.
11/5/11 8 PM ET
LSU at Alabama
OLB Courtney Upshaw (Alabama) #41
A jack of all traits for Alabama, the 6-2 260 pound Upshaw plays inside and outside at linebacker in Alabama’s 3-4 and could theoretically play both 4-3 linebacker and defensive end (a la Von Miller) at the next level. His best fit is as a 3-4 outside linebacker, where he’ll have an advantage coming from a 3-4 scheme. In 8 games, he has 27 tackles, 11.5 for loss, 4.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, and a pick.
C William Vlachos (Alabama) #73
After Ohio State’s Michael Brewster and Wisconsin’s Peter Konz, this is the top center in this class. As the class’ #3 center, he’s probably a late day 2 pick. He’s not the most athletic player, but he’s fundamentally sound and an excellent run blocker, especially in the 2nd level.
ESPN3 Replays
11/5/11 7 PM ET
Notre Dame at Wake Forest
WR Michael Floyd (Notre Dame) #3
He’ll have to answer for some off the field stuff, but there’s no denying his on the field abilities. In 8 games, he’s caught 63 passes for 788 yards and 5 touchdowns. Last year, he had 79 catches for 1028 yards and 12 touchdowns despite an inconsistent situation at quarterback. Someone is going to take a chance on this athletic 6-3 receiver in the first round.
S Harrison Smith (Notre Dame) #22
A big thumping strong safety, the 6-2 220 Smith has 58 tackles in 8 games this year after 91 tackles last year. He also picked off 7 passes last year, though he has yet to pick one off this year, and broke up 8 passes last year. In a weak safety class, Smith could be one of the first off the board. Mel Kiper loves him.
11/5/11 7:15 PM ET
South Carolina at Arkansas
DE Melvin Ingram (South Carolina) #6
He’s cooled off a bit after a hot start to the season that had many considering him a potential first rounder, but he still has 32 tackles, 9 for a loss, and 5.5 sacks in 8 games this season. He’s also scored 3 times, in weird ways, for what that’s worth. He had 9 sacks last year and he has an awesome motor and should still be a 2nd or 3rd rounder. His best position is left end at 6-2 278, but hypothetically he could play 3-4 end depending on his weigh ins pre-draft.
MLB Jerry Franklin (Arkansas) #34
A high character kid and a 4 year starter, Franklin has 337 tackles in his career. This year, he has 68 tackles, 9.5 for a loss, 3 pass deflections, and 0.5 sacks. He had 6.5 sacks last year and plays both inside and outside for Arkansas. He’s best as a middle linebacker at the next level in either a 3-4 or a 4-3 at 6-1 250.
Week 15 Fantasy Report
WR Doug Baldwin- Seattle
Percent owned (ESPN): 19.9%
Sidney Rice is done for the since so you would figure Doug Baldwin, who already leads the team with 45 catches for 718 yards and 3 touchdowns, would get even more of the targets. You would be right as Baldwin once again led the way for the Seahawks on MNF with 7 catches for 93 yards and a touchdown.
WR Demaryius Thomas- Denver
Percent owned (ESPN): 9.6%
He might not have the best hands, but Denver’s wide receivers are very thin, so he’s actually Denver’s best and most targeted receiver. In the last 2 weeks, he’s caught 11 passes for 222 yards and 3 scores. Look for that to continue.
QB TJ Yates- Houston
Percent owned (ESPN): 0.9%
This TJ Yates kid isn’t too bad. He threw for 300 yards and 2 picks against one interception against Cincinnati this week. He’s got plenty of weapons to work with and a good offensive line and defense supporting him. There’s some upside with him as a QB2. If you need a quarterback, you can do a lot worse than picking up Yates.
WR Kevin Walter- Houston
Percent owned (ESPN): 12.6%
Walter was Matt Schaub’s favorite weapon the last time Andre Johnson was out. Johnson is out again and even with TJ Yates at quarterback, Walter still has some value. Yates isn’t too bad and he seemed to like throwing to Walter against Cincinnati, when he caught 6 passes for 76 yards and a score.
WR Donald Driver- Green Bay
Percent owned (ESPN): 18.0%
Greg Jennings is done for at least 2-3 weeks with an MCL tear so it’s next man up in Green Bay’s explosive offense. The man to benefit most figures to be long time Packer Donald Driver, who caught 4 passes for 74 yards last week in the game in which Jennings got hurt.
RB Chris Ivory- New Orleans
Percent owned (ESPN): 0.5%
Mark Ingram isn’t healthy and Ivory was the lead back in his absence this week with 15 carries for 67 yards. This could be more than a one week thing given Ingram’s injury (turf toe).
WR Damian Williams- Tennessee
Percent owned (ESPN): 12.1%
Matt Hasselbeck got hurt and Jake Locker came in. Locker’s favorite target was Damian Williams, who saw 10 targets for 4 catches and 62 yards. The Titans haven’t had a legitimate #1 receiver since Kenny Britt went down and Williams has the most upside of any of their receivers. Locker could be the starter for the rest of the season, which would be a good thing for Williams’ fantasy value.
RB Keiland Williams- Detroit
Percent owned (ESPN): 0.5%
With Kevin Smith out, Keiland Williams got the bulk of the carries over Maurice Morris, rushing for 43 yards on 12 carries. There could be some upside going forward here.
Week 4 Picks
Last week overall: 8-8
Last week ATS: 7-9 (-320/-7%)
Overall picks: 28-20
ATS Picks: 21-24-3 (-930/-7%)
Lock picks: 2-1
Upset picks: 3-2
San Francisco 20 Atlanta Falcons 23
Spread: -7 Falcons
Pick against spread: 49ers 2 units (+200)
The Falcons just won an emotional contest, against their rival Saints, in emotional fashion. They got so geared up for that game and had to go all out to win, that I doubt they’ll be 100% in it to play the 0-3 49ers this week. The 49ers, meanwhile, are desperate they need a win. All that being said, Atlanta is simply the superior team. Matt Ryan should pick apart this 49ers’ secondary, the way Matt Hasselbeck, Drew Brees, and Matt Cassel, yes even Matt Cassel, did before him. It’ll be closer than the public expects, but I’ve got the Falcons winning in a close one, but failing to cover.
New York Jets 24 Buffalo Bills 12
Spread: -6 Jets
Pick against spread: Jets 3 units (+300)
The Bills scored 30 points last week, 11 more than they did in the previous 2 weeks combined. However, they were playing the Patriots. Now they get the Jets. Good luck with that. The Bills aren’t going to score very much in this one. I’d say no more than 17 points. Mark Sanchez has led this offense to 59 points in the last two weeks combined against the Patriots and Dolphins. He should be able to lead his team to enough points to win this one and win it by more than that 6 point spread.
Cincinnati Bengals 19 Cleveland Browns 12 2 units
Spread: -3 Bengals
Pick against spread: Bengals 2 units (-220)
Carson Palmer isn’t a very good quarterback. He doesn’t have the arm strength to scare defenses and open up running lanes for Cedric Benson. That being said, he does have an amazing defense behind him. You saw what they did to Jimmy Clausen and Joe Flacco. Imagine what they’ll do to Seneca Wallace. It’s not going to take a lot of points for the Bengals to win this one, especially against an average at best Cleveland stop unit. I think Palmer will get it done and cover that mysterious tiny spread.
Detroit Lions 19 Green Bay Packers 31 1 unit
Spread: -14 ½ Packers
Pick against spread: Lions 1 unit (+100)
Taking a team against a spread of more than 2 touchdowns when it just lost last week and is coming off a shortened week thanks to a Monday Night game is really risky. The Packers lost the game for themselves last week, but are still a great offensive unit. However, Ndamukong Suh could possibly cause the same sort of trouble for Green Bay’s offensive line that Julius Peppers and the Bears did on Monday Night. This Detroit defensive line is great and completely revamped. That’ll take some of the pressure off of their miserable secondary as they try to stop the aerial attack of Aaron Rodgers and company. They’re not going to win this, but I’ll take the Lions given 14.5 points.
Denver Broncos 16 Tennessee Titans 30
Spread: -7 Titans
Pick against spread: Titans 3 units (-330)
The Broncos stink against the run. Now they have to stop Chris Johnson. Good luck with that. I think there’s a very reasonable chance CJ2K goes over 200 yards in this one and that’ll be huge for the Titans. This is clearly a run based offense. Vince Young struggles when relied on to create points in the absence of a strong running game. You saw what happened when Pittsburgh held Chris Johnson to 38 yards. They lost. With the exception of that loss, the Titans have two double digit wins so I think they’re still better than given credit for. I’ll take them to beat the overrated Broncos easily.
Seattle Seahawks 13 St. Louis 19 Upset pick
Spread: -1 ½ Seahawks
Pick against spread: Rams 3 units (+300)
The Seahawks are like Jekyll and Hyde home and away. This team is 3-14 since 2008 on the road. They won last week at home on the strength of their home crowd. And also on the strength of two kick return touchdowns. That won’t happen again. Those things are very inconsistent. The Rams won last week and looked good in the process. I expect them to protect their home turf and win in an upset fashion over the Seahawks.
Carolina Panthers 16 New Orleans 34
Spread: -14 Saints
Pick against spread: Saints 1 unit (-110)
I know I said it’s almost never a good idea to take a team coming off of a loss against a 2 touchdown spread, but I’m doing it here. This is not an even matchup at all. Drew Brees should finally break the 30 point mark this week against a weak Carolina defense. The only reason he didn’t weeks 2 and 3 is because the other team was able to win the time of possession battle. That won’t happen this week. John Fox no longer knows how to write a game plan and Jimmy Clausen isn’t capable of moving the chains consistently against a defense as complex as the Saints. Last year rookie quarterbacks, Freeman, Sanchez, and Stafford, all played New Orleans’ defense and all 3 stunk. With the Saints winning the time of possession battle, they’ll break 30 and Jimmy Clausen is going to have a hard time staying with 2 touchdowns of that, with that crappy supporting cast, against that defense.
Baltimore Ravens 12 Pittsburgh Steelers 17 2 units
Spread: -2 Steelers
Pick against spread: Steelers 2 units (-220)
The Steelers’ first 3 opponents’ quarterbacks are a combined 92 for 147 for 1085 yards 12 touchdowns and 1 pick in games not played against the Steelers and a combined 54 for 85 for 504 yards no touchdowns and 4 picks. Those three quarterbacks, young quarterbacks, Vince Young, Matt Ryan, and Josh Freeman. Joe Flacco is a young quarterback. Why won’t he struggle? He did it against the Bengals and I expect him to throw interceptions here. Forget having Ray Rice to help him. Even if Rice does play, the Steelers held Michael Turner and Chris Johnson under 50 yards this year. Rice isn’t doing anything this week even if he does play. That’ll make things so much easier for the Pittsburgh offense who will win this close one in a hard fought trench battle.
Houston Texans 28 Oakland Raiders 17
Spread: -3 ½ Texans
Pick against spread: Texans 3 units (+300)
The Texans shouldn’t have any problem running the football against the Raiders. Arian Foster is a great running back and the Raiders can’t stop the run. However, the passing game should be a concern. Andre Johnson either won’t play or will be limited and have Nnamdi Asomugha on him. That means Schaub will have to look to other options. Schaub is a good quarterback, but can he be Peyton Manning and have a strong game in spite of his receivers. Last time the Texans played the Raiders, the Raiders shut down Johnson and won. However, I think this is a more balanced Texans team and a more mature Matt Schaub so I’ll take them to easily outscore the lowly Raiders by more than 4.
Indianapolis Colts 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 20
Spread: -8 Colts
Pick against spread: Colts 2 units (-220)
The Jaguars always play the Colts tough. The Jaguars match up well with the Colts. The Jaguars have lost to the Colts by more than 8 twice in their last 16 meetings. That said, I’m taking the Colts to beat the Jaguars more than 8. The reason the Jaguars have had decent success in the past against the Colts is their running game. The Colts have never been able to stop the run. However, MJD is playing hurt right now. He’s not right. They’re running game shouldn’t strike fear in anyone’s hearts. They’ll run decent, but David Garrard is going to have to make some things happen himself. Peyton Manning might have a perfect passer rating in this game. The Jaguars defense hasn’t stopped anyone through the air since like 2007 (I wish I were exaggerating). Peyton Manning should have a field day and Garrard won’t be able to keep up.
Washington Redskins 24 Philadelphia Eagles 19 Upset Pick
Spread: -6 Eagles
Pick against spread: Redskins 4 units (+400)
The Eagles are vastly overrated right now. Michael Vick played two good quarterbacks in garbage time against a Packer team that wasn’t expecting him and then destroys two crappy defenses like Detroit and Jacksonville and all of a sudden he’s their savior, better than McNabb was, and a top 5 quarterback? I’m not buying it. McNabb is still the much better quarterback here and he has the better supporting cast. The Eagles defense isn’t very good. They never replaced Sheldon Brown opposite Asante Samuel. Even Shaun Hill led his team to 32 points against them. Plus McNabb knows them. He’s practiced against this defense and this scheme was 10 years and when that type of familiarity is there, it normally is in favor of the quarterback, especially if it’s a smart quarterback. Also, McNabb is hungry. He’s secretly pissed at the Eagles and their fans and everyone who has Vick is better than him. Expect him to have a monster game, with the Redskins actually decent defense limiting Vick’s effectiveness through the air, and the Redskins to win. That -6 spread for the Eagles is ridiculous. This should be easy money this week.
Arizona Cardinals 12 San Diego Chargers 31 Lock Pick
Spread: -9 Chargers
Pick against spread: Chargers 2 units (+200)
The Chargers seem to have a home/away Jekyll/Hyde type thing going on as well. They played great at home week 2 against Jacksonville, but lost in Kansas City and Seattle in pathetic fashion. However, they are still a good team. The Cardinals aren’t going to return 2 kickoffs for touchdowns like the Seahawks did. They don’t have anyone like Leon Washington on the roster. This game is in San Diego. They’ll have a more prepared Marcus McNeill this week, after he ended his holdout mid last week. I expect this one to be similar to the Jacksonville game. The Cardinals and Jaguars are similar in that they both suck. I am hesitant to make the Chargers my lock pick this early in the season, but I will anyway. I’m just not putting more than 2 units on this one. The Chargers have burned me before.
Chicago Bears 23 New York Giants 20 Upset pick
Spread: -3 ½ Giants
Pick against spread: Bears 2 units (-220)
I don’t really know what to make of this game, but the Bears have played better than the Giants this season so I see no reason why the Giants should be favored by 3 and a half points. For that reason, it’ll put a small amount on the Bears against the spread, but I think this should be a close one. I don’t have a solid read on the Giants at all. They’re really talented, but playing like crap. The Bears are getting really lucky every week, have a strong run defense and a strong passing game, the team of team the Giants struggle against, so I’ll take them to win.
New England Patriots 34 Miami Dolphins 26
Spread: – 1 ½ Patriots
Pick against spread: Patriots 2 units (+200)
The Dolphins defense looked horrible last week allowing 31 to the Jets. Without Joey Porter and Jason Taylor, they are unable to mask their secondaries flaws and teams can rip right through them unless the other team doesn’t have a good quarterback or the Dolphins can win the time of possession battle. The Patriots offense is too good for either of those two things to happen. Chad Henne is still not someone I trust to when a game where he has to out throw the opposing team. They Dolphins best shot is if they can grind it out and take the time of possession battle that way. The Patriots aren’t good against the run and the Dolphins can definitely run, but I’ll go with Brady over Henne here.
Football Fan Spot 