These are not my set in stone predictions. Those will be coming in about 2-3 weeks after the bulk of free agency is done. However, these are preliminary predictions, using trends in recent years (since 2003) to help determine what might happen next season.

Trend 1: In the past 8 seasons, 13 teams have gotten a first round bye one year and not made the playoffs the next year (Minnesota and San Diego did so from 2009-2010). There has been one such case of that in each of the past 8 seasons. Atlanta, Chicago, New England, and Pittsburgh were the 4 teams who got first round byes last year and if history is any indication, one or more of them won’t even make the playoffs in 2011. Let’s take a look at those 4 teams and see which ones of them could potentially not make the playoffs next year.

Atlanta- They play in the toughest division in football with New Orleans and Tampa Bay and the division has never had a repeat champion in the 9 years of its existence. 3 of their offensive linemen are free agents and Michael Turner wore down late last year. They also didn’t upgrade their pass rush and will count once again on John Abraham as their primary pass rusher, who is 33. He had 13 of their 31 sacks last season. They were also exposed late last year, including losing two home games late.

They open the season at Chicago, home versus Philadelphia, at Tampa Bay, at Seattle, and versus Green Bay. That’s 4 playoffs teams from 2010 and one team (Tampa Bay) that didn’t make the playoffs, but won 10 games anyway. They play 8 teams that won 8 games or more last season and also have to go to Seattle (never easy), into Detroit (6 wins last year, but a young up and comer), into Houston (arguably the off-season’s most improved team), and they also play Jacksonville, who was 8-8 last year.

Their passing game will be better with the addition of Julio Jones, but, across the board, I think this is a worse team than last year. I’m not saying they’ll suck or anything, but it’s not inconvincible, given their tough schedule, how they were exposed late last year, their potential losses on the offensive front, and their competitive division, that they go 9-7, finish 3^rd in their division and miss the playoffs.

Likelihood of missing playoffs: 5/10

New England- They had the league’s best record last year, but they’re riding a 3 game playoff losing streak and the Jets showed how to beat them last year in the playoffs. However, this is the most adaptable team in the NFL so the way to beat them last year is not going to be the way to beat them this year.

They have the league’s best quarterback and, even with their playoff struggles, this is still the league’s best regular season team. They also get two starters back on defense, Ty Warren and Leigh Bodden, who missed all of last year with injuries, and they added more young talent through the draft. I can’t see them missing the playoffs.

Likelihood of missing playoffs: 1/10

Pittsburgh- The last two times they made the Super Bowl, they missed the playoffs the next year. This offseason has had as many distractions as any of their past post-Super Bowl off-seasons, with Rashard Mendenhall’s 9/11 controversy, James Harrison’s foot in mouth controversy, Hines Ward’s decision to be on Dancing with the Stars, and Hines Ward’s DUI arrest. Also, Super Bowl runner ups have had a tough time in recent years in their next season. I think they could definitely go 3 for 3 in the “make the Super Bowl and then miss the playoffs the next year” category in the Big Ben era.

Likelihood of missing playoffs: 7/10

Chicago- Chicago had 11 wins last year. They beat Detroit by 5 on Calvin Johnson’s touchdown/non-touchdown. They beat Dallas when they sucked to start the season and Tony Romo forgot how many downs there were remaining when he was going for a game tying touchdown. They beat Green Bay by 3 when Green Bay committed 18 penalties.

They beat Carolina by 17, but who didn’t? They beat Buffalo in a game where both teams scored 3 touchdowns and no field goals (Chicago, TD, TD, TD + 2 PT conversion Buffalo, TD missed extra point, TD failed 2 PT conversion, TD). They beat Minnesota twice. They beat Miami and their 3^rd string quarterback and patchwork offensive line because of injuries. They beat Philadelphia by 5 without Asante Samuel. They beat Detroit and the Jets by 4. With any different luck, they could have easily been an 8 win team. Now they have to deal with up and coming Detroit in their division. Couldn’t you see them going 7-9, finishing 3^rd in their division and missing the playoffs.

Likelihood of missing playoffs: 8/10

I say Chicago and Pittsburgh miss the playoffs and Atlanta maybe misses the playoffs. More on that later.

Trend 2: In each of the last 8 seasons, there has been at least one non-playoff team improve at least 4 games and get a first round bye (Atlanta did so in 2010). In that span, 10 non-playoff teams have improved at least 5 games and gotten a first round bye. Who are candidates to do that this year? Here are my picks in order of likelihood.

San Diego

San Diego had the #1 offense AND the #1 defense last year and STILL missed the playoffs thanks to bad luck and crappy special teams. They won 9 games last year. If they put everything together this year finally, I think they have the talent to win 13 games and get a first round bye. Maybe missing the playoffs last year will be the wakeup call they needed to not to sleep walk through the first half of the season.

Dallas

After Wade Phillips was fired, this team went 5-3 to finish 6-10 and that was with Jon Kitna with sprinkles of Stephen McGee mixed in at quarterback. Tony Romo is back and healthy and with the addition of Tyron Smith at right tackle through the draft, Romo’s protection is as good as it’s ever been, if not better, which is a good sign for him playing 16 games this year. However, I don’t think they have the defense to win the 12+ games necessary to get a first round bye. Their defense actually got worse after Wade Phillips was fired and they haven’t done much in the offseason to fix that.

Houston

I think this is the most improved team this offseason. They get DeMeco Ryans and Connor Barwin back from injury and they added 3 starters, in my opinion, through the draft in JJ Watt, Brooks Reed, and Brandon Harris. Kareem Jackson has another year under his belt and hopes to bounce back from his awful rookie year. Glover Quin is changing positions to free safety and he can’t possibly as bad at that as he was as a cornerback. They also added Wade Phillips as a coordinator. Phillips may be a terrible coach, but he’s a hell of a coordinator. They could also make a splash in free agency for a safety like Eric Weddle or a cornerback like Nnamdi Asomugha.

They had a bottom 5 defense almost across the board last year. They have never had a problem offensively, with Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, Andre Johnson, and now Owen Daniels returning from injury. They also have a great offensive line and one of the most balanced offenses in the league. I think they could definitely put everything all together this year and win 9-11 games and make the playoffs, but to get a first round bye, they’ll have to win the division and has long as #18 is under center for the Colts, I can’t see that happening.

St. Louis

They have by far the best quarterback in their own division in Sam Bradford (even if Arizona gets Kevin Kolb) and now they have given him a great offensive coordinator in Josh McDaniels and receivers in the 2^nd, 3^rd, and 4^th round of the draft. He also gets Danario Alexander, Donnie Avery, and Mark Clayton back from injury and their schedule is still not very hard. They won 7 games last year so could they realistically win 12 games this year and get a first round bye? Maybe. However, I’d rather pick teams like the Saints or the Packers to get the byes in the NFC so I’m saying no to St. Louis.

Detroit

They only won 6 games last year, but they finished the season on 4 game winning streak, they’re getting their starting quarterback back from injury, they drafted really well, and they have money to play with in free agency. However, I’m not crazy enough to think they can take the division from Green Bay and get one of the two first round byes in the NFC.

I’m saying San Diego wins the AFC West, 13 games and gets one of the two AFC byes. I can definitely see Dallas, Houston, and St. Louis making the playoffs (more on that later), but I’m not quite sold on the Lions yet.

 

Trend 3: In each of the last 8 years, at least one team per year that won 5 or fewer games in the previous season has made the playoffs in the next season (last year it was Kansas City). Last year 6 teams won 5 or fewer games. They were Carolina, Denver, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Arizona, and Cleveland. I’m throwing out both Carolina and Cincinnati because they have rookie quarterbacks coming out of weak quarterback class and a lockout (not to mention tough divisions).

Buffalo is one of 11 teams that returns their starting quarterback, both coordinators, and head coach, which will definitely give them an advantage heading out of this lockout, but I can’t see them having the talent to make the playoffs. That leaves Denver, Arizona, and Cleveland. I thought about Arizona. They somehow won 5 whole games last season even though they had atrocious quarterback play. I can’t see them having worse quarterback play this year and they could get the quarterback prize of the offseason, Kevin Kolb. However, even with him, I think this would be the 2^nd best team in the NFC West after St. Louis. St. Louis would still have the most proven quarterback and the most talented overall team and I can’t see two playoff teams coming from the NFC West. That would be too weird.

I thought about Denver. They have a cupcake schedule (the Jets, the Patriots, the Packers, and the Chargers twice are their only tough opponents unless you count the overrated Chiefs twice, and the overrated Bears, and the Nnamdi Asomugha less Raiders), they played well down the stretch last year after they put Tim Tebow at quarterback, they add Elvis Dumervil (injury), Von Miller (draft), and Rahim Moore (draft) to their defense, they have an almost unfair home field advantage up a mile high. Couldn’t you see them being the Kansas City Chiefs, dominating at home and dominating terrible teams and winning the division with 10 games? Maybe, but that will only happen if San Diego collapses again and I can’t see them doing that two years in a row. That leaves…

THE CLEVELAND BROWNS

Think about it. I have the Steelers falling out of the playoffs. That leaves a spot for potentially another AFC North team to sneak in. Colt McCoy looked like a legitimate franchise quarterback (beating New England and New Orleans) before he got hurt or hit a rookie wall or whatever, either way, he’s not a rookie this year and he’s healthy. Their receivers will be better. They drafted well. They still have a good offensive line. They have two good running backs in Peyton Hillis and Montario Hardesty. Besides, in the past few months, the Indians have jumped out into first place, the Cavaliers got two picks in the top 4, the Heat lost the finals, maybe the Sports Gods decided that “The Decision” was too much and decided to stop kicking Cleveland in the balls. If any 5 win or less team makes the playoffs this year, I think it’s this one.

Trend 4: In the past 8 years, 25 teams have won 5 games more than the previous season and made the playoffs when they previously had not. With the exception of last year (1), there have been at least 3 of those teams in every season of the last 8. I mentioned Dallas and Houston earlier. In order to qualify, both would have to win 11 games. I think that’s a definite possibility. We also have Cleveland, 5 wins, sneaking into the playoffs with 10 so that counts as well.

Trend 5: In the past 8 years, at least 3 teams per year, and 28 teams total, have lost 4 or more games than the season before and missed the playoffs when they previously had not. In 2010, these teams wwere Minnesota, Dallas, Cincinnati, San Diego, and Arizona. Last year’s 12 playoff teams were New England, NY Jets, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Chicago, Atlanta, New Orleans, and Seattle.

I think, automatically, you can throw out New England, Green Bay, Indianapolis, and New Orleans as teams that will definitely make the playoffs again. I think we can throw out Philadelphia, the Jets, and Baltimore as well. Even if they did miss the playoffs, Philadelphia will win more than 7 games, the Jets will win more than 7 games, and Baltimore will win more than 8. That leaves 5 teams, Seattle, Kansas City, Chicago, Atlanta, and Pittsburgh.

I don’t think Seattle will make the playoffs again, but for them to qualify for this, they’d have to win a mere 3 games. I think the magic of Qwest can guarantee them at least 4 wins. Let’s look at the other 4.

Pittsburgh- We’ve already established this team as a team that will miss the playoffs, but for them to qualify for this, they’d have to win a mere 8 games. Will Pittsburgh go 8-8? I think there’s a distinct possibility. Baltimore won 12 games last year and I have Cleveland winning 10 and making the playoffs. I could definitely see Pittsburgh finishing in 3^rd with 8.

Chicago- Again, we’ve established I don’t see this as a playoff team. However, are they a 7 win team? I said earlier with normal luck, they win 8 games last year, so 7 wouldn’t be a crazy stretch with Green Bay and Detroit being better.

Kansas City- I can definitely see this team winning 6 games or less. They play 11 games against teams that finished .500 or better last year. Last year they played 7 (including playoffs) and went 2-5. Their two wins, Jacksonville (8-8) and their 3^rd string quarterback, and San Diego in a game where Matt Cassel threw for 68 yards. They also lost Charlie Weis, their offensive coordinator, and I highly doubt Jamaal Charles has as good of a season as he had last year. In addition to those 11 games, they also play Detroit, a young up and comer.

Atlanta- I said we’d get back to them. I think they could easily finish 9-7 and 3^rd in their division and I stand by that. I think they too finish 4 games or worse than last year, along with Pittsburgh, Chicago, and Kansas City.

That leaves these teams in the playoffs in the AFC. New England, San Diego, Indianapolis, Baltimore, Houston, Cleveland. And these teams in the NFC. Green Bay, New Orleans, Philadelphia, St. Louis, Dallas, and…Tampa Bay. I know I haven’t mentioned them much yet, but if Atlanta’s out, I think Tampa Bay is in. They won 10 games last year and didn’t lose by more than a touchdown after inserting LeGarrette Blount into the starting lineup (hanging within a touchdown of Atlanta twice and Baltimore). They also beat New Orleans.

All of this was with Gerald McCoy, Brian Price, Aqib Talib, and Cody Grimm missing significant time with injury. All of those players will be back except Aqib Talib (legal troubles). They also drafted well and had the league’s youngest team to boot last year. They also, in my mind, are the favorites to land Nnamdi Asomugha. I know they had an easy schedule last year and New Orleans was their only .500+ win and they won’t sneak up on anyone this season, but I think they can split with New Orleans and Atlanta, sweep the season series with Carolina, go 4-2 in the division and 6-4 outside the division (toughest non-divisional games, Indianapolis, Green Bay, Houston, Chicago, Dallas, Jacksonville, Detroit).

Let’s take a look at what this leaves us with (playoff teams in bold).

AFC East

New England 13-3

NY Jets 9-7

Miami 7-9

Buffalo 6-10

AFC North

Baltimore 12-4

Cleveland 10-6

Pittsburgh 8-8

Cincinnati 4-12

AFC South

Indianapolis 12-4

Houston 11-5

Jacksonville 5-11

Tennessee 3-13

AFC West

San Diego 13-3

Denver 6-10

Kansas City 5-11

Oakland 5-11

NFC East

Dallas 11-5

Philadelphia 10-6

NY Giants 8-8

Washington 3-13

NFC North

Green Bay 13-3

Detroit 8-8

Chicago 7-9

Minnesota 4-12

NFC South

New Orleans 12-4

Tampa Bay 10-6

Atlanta 9-7

Carolina 4-12

NFC West

St. Louis 10-6

Arizona 7-9

San Francisco 6-10

Seattle 4-12

I’ll use these standings to post an NFL Mock Draft in the next few days and get my legitimate predictions up as soon as the bulk of free agency is over with.

 

By Vince Vitale 

Well it had been almost two years since the last time I saw the St. Louis Rams win a home game at the Edward Jones Dome. As unlikely as it was the Rams beat the Dallas Cowboys 34-14 on Oct. 19th 2008. The Rams had also not won a game in September since 2006. You start to believe the team will never win, like they are snake bit. Well after the Rams coughed up a 14-0 lead again today to the Washington Redskins I am sure everyone was thinking the same thing, here we go again. 

For some reason today was different. After blowing a 14-0 lead and trailing 16-14 and losing Steven Jackson somehow the Rams seemed to play even that much harder in the second half. Being faced with adversity the Rams actually rallied. After falling behind the Rams went on a 12 play 74 yard drive with Kenneth Darby scoring from 12 yards out to put the Rams back on top to stay 21-16. The Rams dominated the second half scoring on 4 of their 5 drives and outscoring the Redskins 16-3 to win 30-16. 30 points is the most scored since their win over the Cowboys in 2008.

One thing that sure is different is Sam Bradford. Statistically he did not have the greatest day ever going 23 of 37 for 235 yards with 1 TD and 1 pick but it is nice to have a leader out there. Sam Bradford is a competitor and wants to win, he is not use to losing at anything. Sam Bradford made a nice play on his touchdown pass to Daniel Fells to put the Rams up 14-0. Bradford spread the ball to 9 receivers and I have to give Pat Shurmur credit since I usually dump on him he put the Rams in some nice situations by getting the ball out of Sam’s hands. The Rams threw quick passes which you can do with Bradford being so accurate. The Redskins had no time to get to Bradford as he continually was connecting right from the snap. I would also like to say nice job to the receivers. Besides Mark Clayton catching 5 balls the Rams also completed 10 other passes to wide receivers. On the ground Kenneth Darby and Keith Toston chipped in with 71 yards after Steven Jackson left the game. The offensive line only allowed 1 sack and the Rams were also able to ground out 133 yards on the ground. Also lets give a hand to the defense who have held all three opponents to under 20 points.

It was funny looking at the scoreboard thinking if the Cardinals and Seahawks lose the St. Louis Rams will be in first place! Well baby steps first my friends as both won their games but it was a nice feeling to actually think about the NFC West race for once in a long time. Now we get to think about it all week as we get a chance to take care of business next Sunday against the Seattle Seahawks. Who knows maybe we can win two in a row, we did in 2008.

http://www.stlouisramfan.com/ 

  

 

Cornerback 

Virginia

6-1 198

Draft Board Overall Cornerback Rank: #5

Draft Board Overall Prospect Rank: #22

Rating: 84 (late 1st) 

40 time: 4.37

4/16/11: Dowling finally finished a workout! He didn’t just finish. He lit it up. After running a 4.40 at The Combine, despite pulling a hammy, he ran a 4.37 at his Pro Day. He also had a 10-8 broad jump and a 38 inch vertical. He looked great in the drills. Health problems are there, but he’s still got a first round grade in my book, and he has had for 2 years. He’ll probably go in the 2^nd round, but several draftniks have given him a first round grade, as I have. 

3/30/11: Dowling is hurt again. After missing most of the season with injury, missing the Senior Bowl with injury, and pulling his hammy running at The Combine, Dowling couldn’t do anything at Virginia’s Pro Day. He’ll have own more shot at it with his own Pro Day next month, but the injury red flags are there. He’s a first round talent, but can he stay healthy at the next level?

2/14/11: Ras-I is an extremely big and athletic cornerback with 3 years of experience in a zone style defense at Virginia. He has thrived playing zone, but also has the ability and athleticism to mirror receivers well in man-on-man coverage. He’s very tall, about 3 or 4 inches taller than the average cornerback, and that well help him as a corner in the red zone.

He can blitz and run support and he’s not afraid to take on a block. He has a great motor and is very instinctive. He doesn’t have great straight line speed and can be burned occasionally by speed receivers. He could be more fluid in backpedal, especially when covering someone man-to-man.

He’s most likely best suited for a zone or cover 2 defense because of his athleticism, closing speed, and awareness and experience playing in the system. He has good hands, both for intercepting passes, and for use in run stopping. His hands are very strong and physical for a cornerback. Dowling has all the tools to be a top cornerback in the right scheme.

NFL Comparison: Ike Taylor

 

CB Omar Bolden (Arizona State)

DT Michael Brockers (LSU)

QB Aaron Corp (Richmond)

QB Robert Griffin (Baylor)

QB Andrew Luck (Stanford)

S Kelcie McCray (Arkansas State)

OT Donald Stephenson (Oklahoma)

CB Keith Tandy (West Virginia)

S Phillip Thomas (Syracuse)

RB Robert Turbin (Utah State)

 

 

Brown averaged just 3.7 yards per carry last year and is always a major injury problem, but he’s a great pass blocker and pass catcher and as a backup, injuries won’t be as big of a problem. The Eagles got him really cheap for 1 million over a year.

Grade: A

 

By Vince Vitale

The St. Louis Rams will take on the New Orleans Saints today with an opportunity to make a big statement. The Rams are one of the biggest surprises this year at 6-6 and in first place in the NFC West. The Rams have played very consistent football but they are still being questioned as a playoff contender. Can the St. Louis Rams beat a team like the New Orleans Saints? It really is not the Rams fault but they do not have any wins against teams that currently have a winning record. The Rams signature win was a 20-17 stunner over the San Diego Chargers. However the Chargers now have 6 losses and were beat down by the Oakland Raiders last week. 

I give Steve Spagnuolo props for keeping the Rams in every game. I still am not quite sure how the Rams are doing this with the lack of depth that they had heading into the season. The amount of confidence Sam Bradford has given this team is amazing. Bradford is playing very well right now. Over the past 7 games Bradford has 11 TD passes and only 2 interceptions. The Rams have taken very good care of the ball and controlled the clock during most of their games which is helping the defense out as well.

The Saints enter this game as hot and healthy as they have been all year. The Saints are virtually injury free. The Saints are coming into this game on a 5 game winning streak and have a 9-3 record overall and are in hot pursuit of the NFC South leading Atlanta Falcons. The Saints have averaged over 30 points during their winning streak and will pose big problems with the Rams depleted secondary. With Ron Bartell, Justin King, Oshiomogho Atogwe, Craig Dahl & Jerome Murphy all banged up look for Breesand the Saints to attack the Rams through the air. Drew Brees who was near flawless last season has thrown 16 interceptions already this year and has thrown at least one pic in eight straight Games.

On defense the Saints sum is better than their individual parts. Both Dallas and Cincinnati moved up and down the field the last couple of weeks against the Saints. The Saints thrive on turnovers and control the play. The loud crowd in the Superdome will look to disrupt the Rams and Sam Bradford. Watch for tackling machine Jonathan Vilma to keep an eye out for Steven Jackson.

The St. Louis Rams will look to stay the course on offense against the Saints. The Rams will look to control the ball with Steven Jackson and convert 3rd downs with the safe passing of Sam Bradford. The Rams beat the Saints in 2007 and last year almost beat them at the Edward Jones Dome so I do not believe the Rams will be intimidated by the World Champions. To beat the Saints you will have to score and I believe that is the biggest issue for the Rams against the Saints. The Rams are 25th in scoring and have only scored over 20 points twice this year.  

This game will come down to converting on 3rd down and controlling the ball and clock. The Rams will need to pound Steven Jackson early and often into the Saints defense. Sam Bradford will need to complete some timely passes and put some points up on the board by making plays not just the safe ones. On defense the Chris Longand the Rams defense will need to get after Drew Brees and pressure him all day long. The Rams must force turnovers to stay in this one.

Overall the St. Louis Rams just do not have the horses to knock out the champs. The injuries to the Rams secondary are really going to hurt them in this one. The Saints are winning but at times winning ugly. The Saints have 5 wins of 5 points or less. The Rams are familiar with the Saints and play well against them and I expect more of the same today. If the Rams can get a couple extra turnovers we may be in for a surprise. 

Prediction New Orleans Saints 30 – St. Louis Rams 20

Go back to Rams Fan Spot 

http://www.stlouisramfan.com/

 

Debate the Seahawks’ offseason and more in The Football Fan Forum

2010 Preview:

This could be a decent team if Matt Hasselbeck regains pre-2008 form. He has his best chance to do that this year, as the Seahawks, this year, have put together their best offensive front since Walter Jones last played a full season. Russell Okung is very talented, but he’s also a rookie. Rookie left tackles have been a bit of a mixed bag in recent years. Ryan Clady, Jake Long, and Joe Thomas all had great rookie years, but Jason Smith and Eugene Monroe did not. Okung is probably better than what they’ve had in the last two years, and there’s a good chance he’s a lot better than what they’ve had in recent years, but if I were a Seahawks fan, I’d still be a bit nervous about their offensive front until I saw them in action. For what it’s worth, I called Okung the most NFL ready left tackle in this draft class. Having an offensive line coach like Alex Gibbs helps, but their offensive line absolutely needs to play well for Hasselbeck to have a good year and for this offense as a whole to have a good year.

Hasselbeck is old and injury prone and threw a lot of picks down the stretch last year because of bad protection. He looked completely shell shocked behind that line. If Okung can lead this line to be at least average, Hasselbeck could put together a solid year and that could be enough to win them this weak division. His receiving corps aren’t great, but he’s done it without good receivers before. I won’t predict Hasselbeck to lead this team to an 8 or 9 win division title, but it could happen.

Hasselbeck’s supporting cast certainly won’t do him many favors. I’ve already outlined the offensive line and the receiving corps, but those two branches may actually be his most talented. Their running game is banking on 193 pound running back Justin Forsett to pick up where he left off last year, Julius Jones to have a bounce back year, and Leon Washington to come back strong from a bad leg injury. They could trade for Marshawn Lynch, but Lynch struggled some in Buffalo last year. I believe if he was running as well as he was in his first two years in the league, he wouldn’t be on the trade block, even with his off the field issues.

Their defensive line is absolutely horrible. They had 28 sacks last year, which is bad enough, but then they lost Patrick Kerney to retirement. He was their team leader with 5 last year. Unless 2008 1^st round pick Lawrence Jackson can step up in his 3^rd year, they’re going to have a tough time generating more sacks than they had last year.

That doesn’t bode well for a secondary that really struggled last year, mostly thanks to their bad pass rush. They gave up the 3^rd most passing yards through the air last year. Their defensive tackles also don’t give them much hope either. In addition to not generating any interior pass rush, they also ranked pretty middle of the pack in terms of stopping the run, and, with their linebackers being this team’s strong point, I don’t even think we can give all the credit to the defensive tackles for doing that.

They could win this bad division, if Matt Hasselbeck turns back the clock, but his supporting cast, even with a revamped offensive front, is still mediocre and that’s not going to do him any favors. I won’t predict them to do that, but at the same time, this division is so bad that it wouldn’t surprise me. I certainly would be less surprised if they won the division than if St. Louis or Arizona won it.

Projection: 6-10 2nd in NFC West

Power Ranking: 24 

Last season: 5-11 

Grade:  

#6 OT Russell Okung (Oklahoma State)

Pete Carroll takes an absolutely no brainer with his first pick. I guess the Lions, Redskins, and Chiefs don’t have brains (though the Lions would redeem themselves). Okung is an NFL ready left tackle. He’s better than Jason Smith last year and reminds me a ton of Ryan Clady. Okung can step in and protect Matt Hasselbeck’s blindside from day 1 and that’s huge. Hasselback is old, injury prone, and shellshocked behind that line. If Okung can bring back the Hasselbeck of old, they could win this crappy division next year. I mean, someone has to, right?

Grade: A

#14 S Earl Thomas (Texas)

I don’t hate the pick because Thomas is a great player, but this is kind of the same deal with the Chiefs at 5. How much does a safety actually help you? I guess we’ll find out, but I personally would have gone with a need with more positional value and taken either Derrick Morgan or Jimmy Clausen. I guess Pete Carroll really likes Charlie Whitehurst because he passed on Clausen, who he heavily recruited while at USC.

Grade: B

#60 WR Golden Tate (Notre Dame)

I am actually shocked that Pete Carroll took a Notre Dame wide receiver over a USC one, Damian Williams, or even over a USC DE, Everson Griffen. There were better picks here, but it’s hard to argue with Tate, who has experience in the West Coast style offense that they want to run.

Grade: A-

#111 CB Walter Thurmond (Oregon)

The Seahawks traded down 7 spots from 104 to 111 in the LenDale White trade and still managed to get the better player. Huh? Thurmond is much better than Alterraun Verner who the Titans took at 104. Thurmond has first round talent, but his last two seasons have been plagued by injuries. If he can get his health right, he’s a steal and I think that was a smart risk by the Seahawks. Cornerback also was a huge need considering Marcus Trufant is often injured and led the league in pass interference penalties last year despite missing 6 games with injury.

Grade: A

#127 DE EJ Wilson (North Carolina)

They needed a defensive end, but EJ Wilson does not provide as much of a pass rush as they would like out of an end. He’s basically a poor man’s version of Darryl Tapp, who they traded for a 4^th rounder. I would have liked to have seen them get someone who could get after the quarterback.

Grade: D

#133 S Kam Chancellor (Virginia Tech)

Chancellor is going to struggle against the pass and he’s pretty much an undersized linebacker at strong safety, but he’s a solid value here as they try to replace Deon Grant and he could actually start some in his first year which is something you don’t often hear about 5^th rounders.

Grade: B

#185 TE Anthony McCoy (USC)

Pete Carroll takes his first Trojan, I don’t see what a tight end does for them considering they already have John Carlson and Chris Baker on the roster, but McCoy should have gone off the board about 2 rounds ago and he has huge upside so I can’t hate too much.

Grade: A-

#236 DE Dexter Davis (Arizona State)

They finally get a defensive end who can rush the pass rusher as Davis had 21.5 sacks from 2007-2008, but he’s very undersized at 244 pounds so I don’t see how he fits in a 4-3, plus, what was with his 3.5 sacks last year. Did he fall off the face of the earth? I’m not sure he’s much of an upgrade over Chris Clemons at nickel rusher.

Grade: B+

#245 FB Jameson Konz (Kent State)

I don’t see what the point of this pick was. Konz can play two positions, full back and tight end, even though he’s a bit undersized at both positions, but the Seahawks are already 3 deep at tight end with Carlson, Baker, and McCoy, and they already have a good young fullback in Owen Schmitt.

Grade: D

Overall:

The Seahawks drafted how they should have. They picked out their needs, found the best available at those positions at each pick, and picked between those guys. I didn’t completely agree with each of their picks, but I completely understand what they were trying to do, and they really did add talent at positions of need. They only had two picks I couldn’t understand, but those were late round picks, so it’s excuseable. The addition of Russell Okung is going to add a lot to the team right away, in addition for the future. I also like how they were able to manipulate their mid round picks to get veteran running backs on the cheap. The only possible issue I see with this draft is that they didn’t draft a quarterback. They did trade for Charlie Whitehurst this offseason, but he’s a 28 year old former 3^rd round pick who has never thrown a pass in the NFL. If he doesn’t pan out as their quarterback of the future, they may look back at this draft and wish they had taken Clausen at 14. However, they probably will have a shot to take a quarterback of the future next year because Hasselbeck now has a left tackle to protect his blindside.

Grade: A-

Key undrafted free agents:

MLB Joe Pawelek (Baylor)

G Jeff Byers (USC)

DT DeMarcus Granger (Oklahoma)

OLB Reggie Carter (UCLA)

S Marcus Brown (Arkansas State)

Positions of needs:

Offensive Tackle:

Matt Hasselbeck has turned from borderline Pro Bowler to Marc Bulger in two years, thanks to many injuries and just an all around fear of getting hits. He’s become so skittish out there that he is just throwing the ball near his players to get the ball out of there and not take anymore hits and because of that he had his worst full season since his first year in town, 2001. Hasselbeck is not the longterm fix at quarterback and they’ll need to find one of those this offseason, but before they can do that, they have to find a true franchise left tackle to anchor their line because it appears that Walter Jones’ career is done. Otherwise, the same thing that has happened to Hasselbeck will happen to their young quarterback only instead of Marc Bulger syndrome he will get David Carr syndrome.

Drafted Russell Okung (#6) 

Quarterback:

As alluded to previously, Hasselbeck is not their longterm quarterback. Even if he had had a good season last season, he wouldn’t be because he will turn 35 in September. Left tackle is going to be their most pressing need, but quarterback is also going to be important. If either Jimmy Clausen or Sam Bradford fall to the Seahawks at 6, I would be very surprised if new coach Pete Carroll didn’t draft him. Both would be good fits for Carroll’s scheme; Clausen ran a similar one at Notre Dame and Bradford has the accuracy and decision making to project to be able to run the offense in the pros.

Traded for Charlie Whitehurst, Signed JP Losman

Running Back:

With Jim Mora gone, its safe to say that Julius Jones won’t get 177 carries next season. I’m pretty sure Mora is the only guy on the planet who thought Jones was doing a good job. Justin Forsett did a great job late in the season, but at a 194 pounds, he’s hardly an every down back. They need a running back, who fits their zone blocking scheme, to supplement or compliment him.

Signed Quinton Ganther, Traded for LenDale White, Traded for Leon Washington

Safety:

Safety was a huge hole for them last year. Then they filled it with Lawyer Milloy. That would have been a good move if it were 2003. Milloy did horribly at free safety this year and was benched early leaving them, again with very little at the position. If Eric Berry falls to them at 6, they can’t pass him up unless either Bradford or Clausen fall as well, but otherwise this isn’t a huge need because of the safety position’s low positional value. They should target a young athletic safety in the mid rounds though.

Drafted Earl Thomas (#14), Drafted Kam Chancellor (#133), Signed Kevin Ellison

Defensive End:

Patrick Kerney just turned 33 and is coming off of his 2^nd lowest sack total since 2000 with just 5 last year. Meanwhile, Lawrence Jackson at right end, a 2008 1^st round pick, managed only 4.5 sacks last year and as a team they only managed 28. They need some young blood at the position.

Drafted EJ Wilson (#127), Drafted Dexter Davis (#236) 

Cornerback:

Marcus Trufant led the league in cornerback penalties last year. That would be bad enough, but its worse when you consider he missed the first 6 games of the season with injury and still led the league in that category. Clearly his days as an elite corner are over and while their struggles against the pass weren’t all the fault of the cornerbacks, poor safety and D-Line play didn’t help either, upgrades at cornerback are needed.

Drafted Walter Thurmond (#111) 

Defensive Tackle:

The Seahawks were again in the bottom half of the league against the run last year. The defensive tackle rotation of Colin Cole, Red Bryant, Cory Redding, and Kevin Brown might have had something to do with that.

 

Free agents:

QB Mike Teel- signed with Patriots

RB LenDale White- signed with Broncos

WR Nate Burelson- signed with Lions 5 years 25 million  

WR Ben Obomanu (restricted)- resigned 1 year 1.1 million

WR Reggie Williams 

OT Brandon Frye (restricted) 

G Rob Sims (restricted)- resigned 1 year 1.1 million, traded to Lions for a 5th rounder

G Trevor Canfield- claimed by Lions

C Chris Spencer (restricted)- resigned 1 year 2.4 million

DE Darryl Tapp (restricted)- resigned 1 year 1.1 million, traded to Eagles for Chris Clemons and a 4th rounder

DE Robert Henderson 

DT Cory Redding- signed with Ravens 2 years

DT DeMarcus Granger 

OLB Lance Laury (restricted) 

MLB David Hawthrone (exclusive rights)- resigned

CB Ken Lucas

S Deon Grant- signed with Giants 1 year 

S Lawyer Milloy- resigned 

S Quinton Teal  

K Olindo Mare- franchised

Offseason moves:

Seahawks sign G Chester Pitts

Seahawks waive DE Robert Henderson 

Seahawks sign S Kevin Ellison

Seahawks cut WR Reggie Williams 

Seahawks cut S Quinton Teal 

Seahawks claim WR Isaiah Stanback 

Seahawks waive DT DeMarcus Granger 

Seahawks cut RB LenDale White 

Seahawks waive QB Mike Teel 

Seahawks sign QB J.P. Losman 

Seahawks sign S Quinton Teal 

Seahawks announce retirement of OT Walter Jones 

Seahawks re-sign S Lawyer Milloy 

Seahawks acquire RB LenDale White and DT Kevin Vickerson from Titans for exchange of 4th- and 6th-round picks

Seahawks acquire RB Leon Washington from Jets for 5th- and 7th-round picks

Seahawks sign G Ben Hamilton

Seahawks sign WR Reggie Williams

Seahawks sign S Kennard Cox

Seahawks sign G Mitch Erickson

Seahawks waive G Trevor Canfield

Seahawks re-sign WR Ben Obomanu

Seahawks re-sign MLB David Hawthorne

Seahawks re-sign C Chris Spencer

Seahawks sign WR Mike Williams

Seahawks announce retirement of DE Patrick Kerney

Seahawks acquire DE Robert Henderson from Lions for 2010 7th-rounder

Seahawks trade G Rob Sims to Lions for a 2010 5th-rounder 

Seahawks re-sign G Rob Sims 

Seahawks sign RB Quinton Ganther

Seahawks acquire QB Charlie Whitehurst from Chargers for 2011 3rd-rounder and the swap of 2010 2nd-rounders

Seahawks sign OLB Matt McCoy

Seattle trade DE Darryl Tapp to Philadelphia for DE Chris Clemons and a 2010 4th-round pick

Seahawks re-sign DE Darryl Tapp

Seahawks cut S Deon Grant

Seahawks sign WR Ruvell Martin

Seahawks sign TE Chris Baker

Seahawks re-sign K Olindo Mare

Seahawks trade QB Seneca Wallace to Browns for conditional 2011 pick

Seahawks tender DE Darryl Tapp

Seahawks tender WR Ben Oboamanu

Seahawks tender C Chris Spencer

Seahawks tender G Rob Sims

Seahawks tender ILB David Hawthorne

Seahawks franchise K Olindo Mare

 

 

Spotlight #1 Stanford QB Andrew Luck

Spotlight #2 Arizona QB Nick Foles 

1^st quarter

14:50: Andrew Luck overthrows a guy deep.

14:00: Luck over the middle to his tight end.

12:02: Luck has a pass dropped.

11:47: Foles passes to a covered back in the backfield. Bad check down decision.

11:07: Foles good decision on an intermediate route. Quick, smooth release, 12 yard completion.

10:25: Foles takes the under center snap, decent footwork, but his offensive line doesn’t pick him up on a play action. He didn’t have much of a chance to avoid that sack.

8:52: Luck scrambles away from the rush and able to get the ball to an open guy.

7:16: Luck puts it in the perfect place for his trusty tight end Coby Fleener. Luck has no fear throwing into coverage and he does it well. He throws guys open.

6:20: Luck just overthrows the fade route in the end zone. Better to overthrow that ball than under throw it.

6:15: Luck throws into tight one-on-one coverage on the goal line. He puts it in the right place, but the defensive back makes an amazing play and almost picks it off (originally called a pick, but overturned on the replay). He shouldn’t have made that throw. Luck 3 of 7 for 52 yards and a drop through 2 drives. He’ll need to collect himself and get better.

4:51: Foles on 3^rd and 7 makes the poor decision to make a short throw to a guy with 2 guys between him and the first down. Way too conservative there. 2^nd 3 and out by Arizona tonight.

4:01: I like Luck’s scrambling ability. He didn’t have to do a lot of that last year because of how good Stanford’s line was, but he’s made two nice throws on the run tonight. Here’s the 2^nd, a 39 yard completion to Chris Owusu. Deep throw over the middle, Owusu with a nice run after catch.

1:47: Foles with the smooth deep ball for a 38 yard completion. Perfectly thrown.

0:57: Foles threads the needle deep with a man in his face. 28 yard completion.

0:32: Foles under pressure, able to run out for a small gain. Dangerous slide though. He could get hurt that way.

0:00: Foles throws on the flat, but a minimal gain because the receiver slips.

2^nd quarter

14:30: Foles with another conservative throw on 3^rd and long. I don’t get it.

13:39: Luck with the completion on a play action rollout. He can move a little.

12:15: Pocket breaks down, Luck scrambles for about 5 or 6 yard gain.

10:03: Luck a 3^rd down throw short of the sticks and the receiver can’t get the first. This wasn’t a terrible decision, because it was his best option and there was a possibility of getting the first, plus it get them into better field goal position.

9:33: Foles was a statue on that play and gets sacked.

9:14: Foles finds his trusty receiver Juron Criner over the middle.

8:46: Foles leaves one too high, but his receiver is able to bring it down. That’s how receivers get bruised ribs.

8:35: Foles checks down and it goes for a first on a nice run by the ball carrier.

7:43: Foles complete. He’s now a perfect 11 for 11, another shorter throw however, but he is moving the ball.

7:18: Another completion by Foles. His footwork is weak, however, but that’s nothing new for college quarterbacks.

7:04: Foles dumps it off once again, this time on 1^st down. He’s extremely accurate and he has the ability to throw it deep when necessary. He’s 13 for 13 now.

6:46: Foles threading the needle for a 14 yard completion. Extremely impressive.

5:57: Foles throws into coverage, but it’s an amazing throw and an amazing catch by his top receiver Juron Criner, touchdown. Criner, by the way, is a day 2 pick projected.

5:03: Luck with the type of play that makes you say “WOW.” Excellent awareness by Luck, almost sacked by 2 different guys, but he’s able to get it out and complete it against a cornerback blitz. Phenomenal pocket presence.

4:17: More pocket presence by Luck, he’s pressured and sees open field in front of him and runs for the first down and more. 16 yard run.

3:46: Luck throwing it around to everyone. Another completion here long. Great footwork as well and only throwing to the open guys, for the most part, completing passes already to 7 receivers.

2:44: Everyone likes to compare Luck to Peyton Manning. Right now he looks like him with his pocket presence, holding the ball as long as possible, and completing passes against the blitz. He’s been pressured all night, but he hasn’t taken a sack. Furthermore, some of these near sacks have turned into positive completions.

2:11: Luck goes towards the end zone, targeting one-on-one coverage, but it’s just knocking away by the defensive back. Would have been 6.

1:27: Luck pressured again and gets it out, but it’s inaccurate this time. Stanford will have to settle for a field goal.

1:11: Another short completion by Foles. He needs to get things moving. Not a lot of time left on the clock.

1:04: Short throw again, this time for a first down after the run after catch, receiver makes a mistake not getting out of bounds.

0:33: Foles airs it out, incomplete, not that inaccurate, but the receiver can’t get to it.

0:29: Back to back incompletions to Foles with a throw behind. Bad communication and timing with the receiver.

0:23: This one’s compete on 3^rd down for 15 yards over the middle. Really rooting for Foles here. I need to see him show some leadership in this two minute drill.

0:16: Foles fumbles. Just drops it. Luck wouldn’t have done that. Luck is way more poised than Foles. Foles might be extremely accurate, but poise is a problem. Takes sacks, poor footwork, quiet in the huddle, and now this fumble. Fumble recovered so one last chance here for Foles to redeem himself this have.

0:07: Foles throws at least 10 yards away from any receiver deep. Bad throw. Defensive back was way closer to catching it than Foles.

0:00: Foles had a touchdown to Criner, but pass interference will make the receiver drop it. Arizona will have one last chance with an untimed down. They’ll go for 3 and miss it. It should have been a touchdown.

 

3^rd quarter

12:47: Foles has a touchdown dropped in the end zone. It would have been a tough catch, but Foles did a good job of putting it where only his guy could get it.

12:38: Foles barely able to get it out before taking the sack, incomplete. Big frame, doesn’t go down easily.

11:49: Luck throws to an open guy with no one in front of him. He’s able to get the first.

9:58: Luck throws into one on one, solid throw by Luck, but it’s deflected by the defensive back.

9:45: Foles on the run to Criner, just short incomplete. Inaccurate on an open pass. 1 for his last 7.

9:03: Foles on the run, avoids the rush, great strength off his back foot and almost completes it. Just a little long. Receiver is only able to get one hand on it.

7:59: Luck on 2^nd down, short over the middle, close to a first down, 3^rd and 1.

7:23: Throw on 3^rd and down, got excited when he saw a receiver open deep, threw off his back foot to get it out before the receiver got covered, but he still is able to complete it off his back foot deep. Excellent throw.

6:52: Luck runs for a first down on 1^st and 10. He does it all. 15 yard run.

5:29: Bad throw by luck. There have been a few of these. Almost picked, but dropped. Great play by the defensive back before the drop.

5:22: Luck makes up for it. Touchdown. Not a particularly hard throw, however. The receiver had solid separation to begin with.

5:10: Foles finds a guy open over the middle for a first down.

4:16: Foles passing on 2^nd down, throws it short to make it 3^rd and 2.

3:36: Foles takes a 3^rd down sack. He takes too many sacks.

2:50: Luck throws incomplete.

1:59: Luck throws incomplete again, this time on 3^rd down. It was physical coverage. There could have been PI there, but it wasn’t called. Drive kept alive on offsides on the punt.

0:45: Luck complete for 1^st down on 3^rd and 3 this time. Cool and calm in the pocket even with the pressure coming. That’s the biggest thing I love about him.

4^th quarter

14:54: Completely blown coverage. Stanford had two guys behind every one on the defense and Luck finds the deepest one for an easy touchdown.

14:45: Foles has to get it out quick with the rush coming and throws the wide receiver screen to Juron Criner.

13:50: Foles completes short for 4 yards. Now it’s 2^nd and 6. He checks down a lot, but that’s not the reason their drives haven’t gone anywhere. They’ve had some bad luck and some bad running and some poor kicks by their kickers. They’ve missed 2 field goals. He’s not doing a bad job in decision making. However, he’s taken some unnecessary sacks that have killed drives.

13:33: Another short throw by Foles. Now it’s 3^rd and 2. Methodical, but he’ll have to pick it up at some point. I’m excited to see how he handles it.

13:07: Dump off again.

12:19: Foles with a very deep, accurate throw, but Criner isn’t able to bring it in. Nice release, nice touch on the deep ball. There’s definitely room for improvement here, but there’s definitely upside.

12:14: Foles nowhere close on the deep ball out of bounds.

11:41: Foles holds it way too long on 3^rd and 10 to make it 4^th and 19. I don’t know why he didn’t get it away earlier. He had to have seen the rush coming. He stood there like a deer in the headlights. This is part of the project that is Nick Foles.

10:09: Stanford is really pounding the rock tonight and most of those runs have been to the side of left guard David DeCastro. DeCastro is a hell of a run blocker. He might be the best guard in this draft class. He reminds me of Logan Mankins. I’ll spotlight him at a later date.

8:58: Luck incomplete on 2^nd down.

8:53: Luck under pressure, throws short off his back foot, but accurate for a first down. Nice job of seeing the play develop.

6:59: Luck finds the wide open back out of the backfield on 3^rd down and short for a first down and then some. Luck saw the play develop, but nice run after catch by the fullback.

4:20: On 1^st and 15 after a penalty, Foles throws an intermediate throw for an open guy who has room for the first on the run. As much as he dumps off, he needs to do this more, dumping off to someone who has room to get the first.

3:32: Another first on a pass for Foles. These are all considered garbage teams yards, however, with Arizona down 37-10.

3:06: Foles throws to a covered receiver in the flat. The receiver is able to catch it and beat his man for the first.

2:32: Foles sacked. Again.

2:12: Foles pass batted down at the line of scrimmage.

2:03: Foles’ dump off goes for some yards, but not nearly enough on a 3^rd and very long. Now it’s 4^th and 8.

1:54: Arizona goes for it on 4^th down. Foles throws inaccurate to the sideline.

0:00: There is nothing spectacular about Andrew Luck. In a way, that’s what’s so spectacular about him. You look at the stat sheet and you aren’t blown away by anything. 20 for 31 for 325 yards and 2 touchdowns. That’s solid. He was beyond solid tonight. He very rarely makes any mistakes. He’s got the arm to make every throw. He gets the ball out right at the right time. He can run. He’s so methodical, it’s almost robotic.

His leadership is robotic as well and I don’t mean that in a bad way. This Stanford team has taken on his identity. He’s a very no frills, hard working, smart, quiet, humble leader type guy and it works. Guys gravitate to this guy even if it’s for unconventional reasons. He shouldn’t be charismatic, but he is. He’s very, very like Peyton Manning. It’s kind of eerie. I’m not making the direct comparison, but at the very least he’s a poor man’s Peyton Manning.

Keep in mind the kind of supporting cast he’s doing this with. He has a new Head Coach, 3 new starters on the offensive line, he completed passes to 7 different receivers, his leading receiver in terms of receptions was his fullback. His leading receiver in terms of yards was a tight end and not just a tight end, a backup tight end who came up when Coby Fleener went down. His 3^rd leading receiver was another backup tight end. His 2 touchdowns were to tight ends. He just takes what’s given to him, but he’s not a game manager, because he can carry a team by himself.

As for Nick Foles, his line looked good, 24 for 33 for 239 yards and 1 touchdown. However, he’s so in love with checking down it’s creepy. He has the arm to go downfield and he has decent deep accuracy, but he loves checking down, sometimes just for checking downs’ sake. He also gets the Jay Cutler’s deer in the headlights type thing when the pass rush comes. He’s big and sturdy and can break some tackles and doesn’t go down easily, but he holds the ball way too long. I’d say he’s Joe Flacco, but his arm isn’t as good. His arm is good, all the physical tools are there, but he’s a project. He’s got the upside, but I’d say he’s a 2^nd rounder.

 

 

Debate the Rams Off season in the Football Fan Forum

2010 Preview:

The Rams definitely took a step in the right direction by taking a franchise quarterback in Sam Bradford first overall. However, Rams fans aren’t going to see that move pan out right away. Rookie quarterbacks struggle unless they have three things, experience in a Pro Style offense, a good supporting cast, and 30 or more starts in college. Bradford has none of those three things. Plus, he hasn’t been in a game on any level since last October thanks to an injury. He’ll likely be rusty. That doesn’t mean he won’t pan out ever. Plenty of quarterbacks have had awful rookie years and gone on to become Pro Bowlers, even future Hall of Famers in Peyton Manning’s case. He just won’t be good this year. And if they start AJ Feeley over Bradford, that’s great, history shows quarterbacks who sit in their rookie year pan out more, but don’t expect Feeley to win them a ton of games either.

Now, this team is more than a quarterback. Let’s talk about their supporting cast, a thing I called bad when I mentioned that Bradford didn’t have a strong supporting cast, essential to a rookie quarterback’s success. Steven Jackson is great. He’s also hurt and couldn’t carry them to more than 1 win last year when he was healthy. Their offensive line is banking on rookie Rodger Saffold having a good first year and Jason Smith panning out in his 2^nd year in the league. Injuries have decimated their offensive front so far in their offseason, which is not a good sign.

Their defense isn’t good. Their best chance at any life defensively is their pass rush. Head coach Steve Spagnoulo has done great things in the best with pass rushes and they still have a lot of untapped potential in former 2^nd overall pick Chris Long. They also drafted a few interesting pass rushing options in the mid rounds this year, but overall, their pass rush isn’t making me jump out of my seat.

Their linebackers aren’t good, their defensive tackles aren’t good, their secondary isn’t good, there simply aren’t enough good players on this defense for them to be anything for other teams to fear. Don’t underestimate losing OJ Atogwe either. Their defense went from bad to worse after he got hurt last year and now it looks like the free agent won’t be back next season.

Projection: 2-14 4th in NFC West 

Power Ranking: 31 

Last Season: 1-15 

Draft:

#1 QB Sam Bradford (Oklahoma)

They could have done worse and taken a non-QB, but I would have taken Clausen. I think Clausen’s history of success in an NFL style offense with limited talent around him made him best prepared for the Rams, but it’s hard to give them a bad grade because they picked a guy with more upside at a position of extreme need and value.

Grade: B

#33 OT Roger Saffold (Indiana)

I didn’t see it coming, but I like it. Alex Barron was the most penalized left tackle in the league last year and also gave up 9 sacks. Jason Smith is the left tackle of the future, but he struggled some last year. Even if Smith is able to pan out at left tackle and Barron is able to move over to right and improve, Saffold is still an above average left guard. There’s also a good chance that either Smith doesn’t pan out or Barron continues to struggle and in that case, Saffold can play tackle. The Rams need to protect their quarterback. Maybe the Lions should take a look at what the Rams are doing.

Grade: B+

#65 CB Jerome Murphy (South Florida)

Murphy fits the draft range alright, but I think there were better players at the position than him and I didn’t have cornerback as one of the Rams’ major needs. The Rams need help at linebacker, receiver, and on the defensive line so I don’t understand this one so much.

Grade: C

#99 WR Marshawn Gilyard (Cincinnati)

I would have gone with Everson Griffen because I had him higher rated on my board and because he fills a greater need in terms of positional value, but it’s hard to argue with the Rams getting a 2^nd-3^rd round caliber WR in the top of the 4^th, especially when they have a young rookie quarterback who is used to having talented wide receivers.

Grade: A-

#132 TE Michael Hoomanawanui (Illinois)

Tight end was a need, but I would have liked to have seen them go with a pass catching tight end over a run blocking tight end, even given how good of a blocker Hoomanawanui is. With so many other needs, this luxury pick doesn’t make a lot of sense.

Grade: C-

#149 DE Hall Davis (Louisiana Lafayette)

I didn’t have Davis on my radar as a 5^th round guy at all, but he fills a need and I trust Steve Spagnuolo’s judgements with DEs given his work with Justin Tuck, Mathias Kiwanuka, and Osi Umenyiora in New York.

Grade: C+

#170: TE Fendi Onobun (Houston)

The Rams take their pass catching tight end, I think. Fendi has barely played any football. He is a basketball player with amazing measurables and good upside as a tight end. The Rams had other needs and can’t afford to be making picks like this.

Grade: D

#189: DE Eugene Sims (West Texas A&M)

Trying to trust Steve Spagnuolo’s judgement with ends, but Sims probably shouldn’t have been drafted. Plus, having already taken one end this draft, the Rams really needed to focus on other needs with this pick, DT, LB, S.

Grade: C-

#211: CB Marquis Johnson (Alabama)

Once again ignoring bigger needs to make reaches at positions that aren’t huge needs. I didn’t have Johnson on my radar as a draft prospect at all.

Grade: C

#226: DE George Selvie (South Florida)

I like the 3^rd defensive end they took a lot more than the first two, but still this is their 3^rd defensive end. When you have as many needs as the Rams do, you can’t afford to triple up on positions and Selvie is a bit undersized.

Grade: A-

#254: MLB Josh Hull (Penn State)

Hull actually fills a need at LB, but he’s not the starting caliber LB I was expecting them to get out of this draft.

Grade: A

Overall:

Overall, they could have done a lot worse. They are set up pretty nicely for the future with their franchise QB, a solid offensive line, a franchise DE (Chris Long), and they added some interesting players into the mix and made some nice unorthodox picks.

Grade: B-

Key undrafted free agents signed

OLB Simoni Lawrence (Minnesota)

RB Keith Totson (Oklahoma State)

QB Thaddeus Lewis (Duke)

Positions of need:

Quarterback:

Marc Bulger is practically dead because of all the sacks he has taken over the past few years. He’s so shell shocked that they had to bench him for Kyle Boller last season. Kyle Boller proved last year that he’s nothing but a former 1^st round pick bust and Keith Null, I can only hope, was only drafted and started to help the Rams tank, because I can’t think of any reason why you’d start a guy with zero arm strength and awful decision making. Without a franchise quarterback, they will be mediocre at best again next year and for every year until they get one. This is why I feel they have to draft a quarterback first overall. They may also try to acquire either Jason Campbell or Michael Vick in the offseason, but I see both as mistakes because neither of those guys are franchise quarterbacks, but merely stopgaps. Campbell has a career 25-32 record as a starter and that’s with a much better supporting cast than the one he will have in St. Louis.

Drafted Sam Bradford (#1) 

Wide Receiver:

Assuming they get a franchise quarterback, they’ll have to get him someone to throw to. Donnie Avery is decent, but lacks elite size and Brandon Gibson surprised late last season as a rookie, but he doesn’t have a ton of upside. Getting a true #1 option or future #1 option will be high on their shopping list for this offseason. If the Rams take Clausen first overall, they would be smart to draft Golden Tate in the 2^nd as Tate was Clausen’s top receiver over the last two years at Notre Dame.

Drafted Marshawn Gilyard (#99) 

Defensive End:

Even if Chris Long pans out, which, after a disappointing 2^nd year, is not a sure thing, they will still need a left end opposite him. They only had 22 sacks as a team last year and 6.5 of those came from Leonard Little who is on the wrong side of 30 and also a free agent. I would not be surprised if they dangled a mid-to-late round pick in front of the Giants for Osi Umenyiora, who has demanded that they either give him back his starting job or trade/release him. Osi has already won a ring, so he may enjoy the opportunity to come play for Steve Spagnuolo, his former defensive coordinator who is now the Rams’ head coach, get a full time starting job, mentor a young guy at the position like Chris Long, and try to help rebuild a once proud franchise.

Drafted Hall Davis (#149), Drafted Eugene Sims (#189), Drafted George Selvie (#226)

Defensive Tackle:

Rookie Dorell Scott is probably the only defensive tackle from their 2009 roster I’d want playing any significant playing time on my team, and even he, I don’t think, is quite starter material. They’ll give Adam Carriker one more shot at the position, but he’s coming off of a major shoulder injury and he wasn’t great before the injury either. If they draft or sign a defensive tackle, they could move Carriker out to left end, his college position. That being said, drafting Ndamukong Suh #1 over Jimmy Clausen would be a mistake. There’s a reason defensive tackle is 4^th on this list and quarterback 1^st. They won’t get anywhere without a franchise quarterback.

Signed Fred Robbins, Signed Chris Hovan

Outside Linebacker:

After they traded Will Witherspoon, this defense just fell apart. A late season injury by OJ Atogwe didn’t help, but going from Witherspoon to Paris Lenon at the outside linebacker position was a major downgrade and noticeably so. Lenon is a free agent this offseason and I doubt he will be resigned.

Traded for Bobby Carpenter 

Safety:

Speaking of OJ Atogwe, when he down with injury, then the entire defense just fell apart. Atogwe is a free agent, so, while they have more pressing needs, a replacement would be nice.

Traded for Kevin Payne 

Tight End:

The top three tight ends on their depth chart are free agents so they may look to go in a completely different direction at the position. However, once again, they have more pressing issues.

Drafted Mike Hoomanawanui (#132), Drafted Fendi Onobun (#170) 

Running Back:

They have almost no depth behind Steven Jackson. I don’t know how many more 300 carry seasons Sjax can handle so a solid backup, preferably a young guy who could take over if Jackson starts to break down, is a need and something I expect them to look for late in the draft.

 

Free Agents:

QB Marc Bulger- signed with Ravens 1 year

QB Kyle Boller- signed with Raiders

RB Kenneth Darby (restricted)- resigned

RB Sakmon Gado (restricted)

WR Ruvell Martin (restricted) 

TE Randy McMichael- signed with Chargers 1 year

TE Daniel Fells- resigned 1 year 1.5 million

OT Alex Barron (restricted)- traded to Cowboys

G Mark Setterstrom (restricted)- resigned 1 year

DE Leonard Little 

DE Victor Adeyanju- (restricted)- resigned 1 year 1.1 million

DE James Hall- resigned 

DT Clifton Ryan (restricted)- resigned 1 year 1.6 million

DT Gary Gibson- resigned 1 year

OLB David Vobora (exclusive rights)- resigned 1 year

OLB Larry Grant (exclusive rights)- resigned

OLB Paris Lenon- signed with Cardinals 3 years 

OLB Simoni Lawrence- signed with Eagles 

CB Jonathan Wade (restricted)- not tendered, signed with Lions

CB Quincy Butler (exclusive rights)- resigned 1 year .47 million

S OJ Atogwe (restricted)- resigned 5 years

S David Roach (exclusive rights)- resigned

Offseason moves:

Rams re-sign S David Roach

Rams re-sign S O.J. Atogwe

Rams re-sign OLB Larry Grant

Rams sign DT Chris Hovan

Rams announce retirement of WR Isaac Bruce

Rams trade OT Alex Barron to Cowboys for OLB Bobby Carpenter 

Rams re-sign OT Alex Barron

Rams acquire S Kevin Payne from Bears for conditional 7th-round pick

Rams trade 3-4 DE Adam Carriker to the Redskins for exchange of 5th-round picks 

Rams re-sign DT Clifton Ryan

Rams re-sign DT Gary Gibson

Rams sign OLB Na’il Diggs 

Rams cut QB Marc Bulger

Rams re-sign CB Quincy Butler 

Rams re-sign DE James Hall

Rams sign CB Kevin Dockery

Rams sign TE Darcy Johnson

Rams re-sign OLB David Vobora 

Rams re-sign RB Kenneth Darby

Rams re-sign G Mark Setterstrom

Rams sign C Hank Fraley

Rams re-sign TE Daniel Fells

Rams sign DT Fred Robbins

Rams sign QB A.J. Feeley

Rams waive TE Derek Fine

Rams tender S O.J. Atogwe

Rams tender DE Victor Adeyanju

Rams tender DT Clifton Ryan

Rams tender OLB David Vobora

Rams tender OLB Larry Grant

Rams tender CB Quincy Butler

Rams tender RB Kenneth Darby

Rams tender S David Roach

Rams claim TE Derek Fine 

 

By Trey Huguley 

After a very frustrating loss last week against the New York Giants, the Houston Texans face a “must win” situation hosting the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 6.  At 3-2 and first in the AFC South, the Texans are having a decent year, but the negative aspects of their games make that winning record look like it doesn’t mean that much.  

If the Texans can beat the Chiefs this weekend and go into the bye Week 4-2, things would definitely be looking up. Not only would it help the Texans maintain their top positioning in the Division, but it would also help them go into the break with some real momentum. Then the bye week will give them time to fix the problems that have been plaguing the Texans defense all year long….pass coverage and pass rush. 

Ironically, in order to beat the Chiefs though, they’ll need to correct those issues a week sooner than the bye; or at the very least, put a metaphorical “band-aid” over them. Luckily, Matt Cassell doesn’t lead a very powerful passing game, but the Chiefs offensive line has been top notch – only allowing 3 sacks so far this season.  The Texans defensive line will have to do all they can to put pressure on Cassell and disrupt his passes. 

The even more difficult challenge for the Texans defense, however, is the fact that they will have to be on the look out for the Chiefs decent running game as well. The line should be able to handle this, but the Texans secondary better be on their toes so they aren’t caught out of position. Often in the games where quarterbacks have thrown for over 300 yards against the Texans secondary, it was because Safeties Eugene Wilson or Bernard Pollard were caught out of position in zone coverage. They better be paying attention this week’s “must win.”

If the Texans were to lose this game, half of their fan base would jump ship. This could be really bad considering that the Texans are finally getting national media attention and expanding their fan base. The last thing they want to do is turn that around and start losing fans again. 

Perhaps the biggest issue that makes this game a “must win” is the remaining schedule. Throughout the rest of the season the Texans will face the Colts, Titans (twice), Ravens, Jets, Eagles and Chargers – all of which they could lose. They’ll pick up a few wins against the Jaguars and Broncos. Most likely they’ll pick up one against the Titans and the Chargers game too. The Eagles and other Colts game are a toss up. All in all, the Texans could realistically be looking at losing five more games -even if they get better over the bye.  If they beat the Chiefs and go into the rest of the season at 4-2, they have a better chance of taking 5 losses and maybe making the wildcard at 9-7. On the flip-side, if they take a loss against the Chiefs and drop to 3-3, they’d need a miracle to have a winning season. And that hurts to even think about. 

The Texans SHOULD win this game without too many difficulties, but usually when I feel that way they end up losing. Let’s hope that isn’t the case this week. 

http://www.houstonsportblog.com/