Last week overall: 9-5

Last week ATS: 8-6 (+$680/+19%)

Overall picks: 37-25 (.597)

ATS Picks: 29-30-3 (-$250/-1%)

Lock picks: 3-1

Upset picks: 5-3

Sports Betting FAQ 

Jacksonville Jaguars 28 Buffalo Bills 31 Upset Pick

Spread: -1 1/2 Jacksonville

Pick against spread: Buffalo (2 units) -220

The Jacksonville Jaguars just played their hearts out to win a miracle game against their hated rival Colts. However, the Jaguars don’t always play to their potential. In fact, more often than not, they don’t. I doubt they will this team, after doing so last week, especially against an 0-4 Buffalo team. Ryan Fitzpatrick has proven can he move the ball on bad defenses and the jaguars defense may be even worse than the Patriots. They can score a lot of points in this game. I just doubt the Jaguars, despite having MJD to destroy the Bills weak front 7, will play well enough to match the Bills’ offensive output this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 Cincinnati Bengals 17 Upset Pick

Spread: -7 Cincinnati

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay (3 units) +300

Cincinnati is very overrated still. They just lost to the Bills, sit at 2-2, and are 7 point favorites against a 2-1 team coming off its bye. Don’t pay attention to how much Josh Freeman and this offense struggled against the Steelers. Matt Ryan did the same week 1 and he’s 3-0 since. Josh Freeman is still a very competent quarterback, better than the overrated Carson Palmer. Palmer can have a decent game against the Buccaneers weak defense, but if they couldn’t score big amounts of points against the Browns, they won’t be able to against the Buccaneers this week either. This simply is not a team that can score a lot of points. They didn’t last year, for the most part, and they haven’t this year at all. I expect Josh Freeman to lead a last second drive over the Bengals defense to win this hard fought matchup.

Atlanta Falcons 31 Cleveland Browns 16 lock pick

Spread: -3 Atlanta

Pick against the spread: Atlanta (4 units) +400

The Browns are coming off a win and get their starting quarterback back from injury, but I don’t see why they are only given 3 points in this one, especially considering that win was in close fashion against the lowly Bengals and that starting quarterback, Jake Delhomme, should cause more harm than good to this team. Say what you want about Seneca Wallace. He didn’t lose them any games. Delhomme loses games all the time. The Falcons lead the league in interceptions in 8. Delhomme should throw at least 2, probably 3 picks this week, setting up good field position for the Falcons offense against the Browns mediocre defenses all day.

St. Louis Rams 23 Detroit Lions 13 Upset Pick

Spread: -3 Detroit

Pick against spread: St. Louis (3 units) -330

This is probably the only time you’ll see a division leading team be given 3 points against a winless team. The Lions certainly aren’t playing bad, especially for a team that’s missing it’s starting quarterback, they’re just losing, and in close fashion. I expect them to do the same this week, losing in a way that’s a lot closer than the score suggests. However, the Rams are the better team. They have the better quarterback, the better offensive line, the better running game, and the better defense. The Rams defense has been beating up on bad offenses with bad offensive lines all year. The Lions, with Shaun Hill, are certainly not a good offensive team and that line is miserable. The Lions should be able to create pressure on Sam Bradford, something he’s never faced before in the NFL, which is why I think this one will be close, but I like the Rams to win this one because they are overall a more talented team.

Kansas City Chiefs 17 Indianapolis Colts 31

Spread: -7 1/2 Kansas City

Pick against spread: Indianapolis (2 units) +200

It is weird seeing the Colts 2-2 facing the 3-0 Chiefs. That just doesn’t seem right. However, the Chiefs are not coming out of this one undefeated. The Chiefs have yet to face a quarterback like Peyton Manning, or anyone even close. They faced Philip Rivers week 1, and only won because they got a long run, an interception, and a punt return touchdown. Cassel actually only passed for 68 yards that game so it’s not like he really matched Philip Rivers, who played decently in early season form. Peyton Manning is a completely different animal. There’s no way that Matt Cassel can match what he will do. It’ll take a true miracle (something along the lines what the Patriots special teams did against the Dolphins week 4) for the Chiefs to score enough points to match the Colts. They do have a strong running game, which helps against a weak Indianapolis run defense, but I don’t think they’ll even be using their best runner, Jamaal Charles, as much as necessary.

Green Bay Packers 28 Washington Redskins 17

Spread: -3 Green Bay

Pick against spread: Green Bay (3 units) -330

The Packers are a sloppy 3-1, barely beating Philly and Detroit, and losing, on the strength of 18 penalties, to the Bears on Monday Night Football. However, they still have an explosive passing game. Their running game is bad, but this is not a running league anymore and the Redskins pass defense is one of the worst in the league. Aaron Rodgers should have a huge game. Considering how good the Packers ground defense is, they’ll force Donovan McNabb to play catch up and match, pretty much by himself and based off of his 8-19 last week, I don’t think that’s something he can do for this team.

Chicago Bears 19 Carolina Panthers 13

Spread: -3 Chicago

Pick against spread: Chicago (2 units) +200

The Bears will miss Jay Cutler this week, with a concussion, and Todd Collins will make his first start since 2007, when he led the Redskins on an unbelievable playoff run in memory of Sean Taylor’s passing. Even without Cutler, this team can still score points this week. The Panthers don’t have anything that resembles a pass rush. They have 4 sacks all year, 2 by their defensive line. Teams with defensive lines that can create pressure give Mike Martz led offenses a hard time. However, teams that blitz give Jay Cutler a hard time. Todd Collins is not Jay Cutler. He doesn’t have Cutler’s down field ability, but he is a veteran and should be able to get the ball out to the open man against a blitz. If the Panthers don’t blitz, well Collins should have plenty on time in the pocket and time in the pocket is what makes this offense go. We all saw what Cutler did with time against the Cowboys. Collins, again, doesn’t have Cutler’s arm, but he can still make some things happen downfield if given time. The Bears are also going to be playing harder this week. The Bears lost their quarterback and teams that lose their quarterback often play 110% in the first game without him. The Panthers are 0-4, coming off a demoralizing loss, and now face a Bears team that was destroyed on Sunday Night Football and is missing their quarterback. The Panthers aren’t going to be able to match what an inspired Bears offensive unit can do against a weak defensive line. Jimmy Clausen is talented, but with Steve Smith down, he has absolutely no receivers to rely on. The Bears defensive line should be able to shut down the Panthers ground attack and force the pressure onto Clausen and his receivers. He won’t be able to match.

 

Denver Broncos 13 Baltimore Ravens 27

Spread: -7 Baltimore

Pick against spread: Baltimore (3 units) +300

Kyle Orton is what makes this Denver team go. However, the Ravens have the best pass defense in the league and have yet to give up more than 167 yards in a game. The Broncos offense is extremely one dimensional. One dimensional offenses, especially finesse type teams like the Broncos, don’t do well against the Ravens. It’s the exact same reason I picked the Broncos to lose to the Ravens when they were 6-0 last year. The logic remains the same. It helped me once, so I’m sticking with it. 

New York Giants 24 Houston Texans 28

Spread: -3 Texans

Pick against spread: Houston (1 unit) -110

I’m not sure I believe in this Giants team. Their offense could only put up 17 points last week, despite the fact that their defense got 10 sacks. The defense isn’t going to get 10 sacks this week. The Texans are capable of protecting their quarterback. The Texans pass defense is not that great, so it will be up to Eli Manning to put points up on the board and finally have a strong game, but I’m not betting on him to, especially with Brian Cushing coming back to the Texans. I expect the Texans strong offense to score enough on the Giants defense to outscore the Giants discombobulated offensive bunch.

New Orleans Saints 24 Arizona Cardinals 21

Spread: -7 New Orleans

Pick against spread: Arizona (2 units) +200

The Cardinals are a completely different team at home than on the road. At home they are 2-0 (+5) and on the road they’re 0-2 (-65). I’m not going to pick them to go 3-0 at home and beat the Saints, but I’m not taking the Saints to cover. The Saints have been favored in each of their games this year and have yet to cover. There is a definite Super Bowl hangover with this team. They could exploide for 30+ and cover any given week, but they have yet to do that. Max Hall, the new quarterback for the Cardinals, can keep teams in games. He’s not Derek Anderson. I expect Hall to keep this one close and Brees to lead a late drive to win it, but to fail to cover once again.

Tennessee Titans 17 Dallas Cowboys 23

Spread: -7 Dallas

Pick against spread: Tennessee (1 unit) +100

This is a tough one. The Titans seem to be alternating, win, loss, win, loss, this year. However, the Cowboys are coming off a bye, which they could have used to regroup, and also an impressive victory on the road against the Texans. The outcome of this game is going to depend a lot on Chris Johnson. When he rushes for more than 100 yards, they win, 2-0. The Cowboys have a fairly capable ground defense and if they can shut him down the way the Steelers and Broncos did, they’re going to win this game. There’s no question about it. Vince Young would have to outthrow Tony Romo to win that game and that’s not something he can do. I like the Cowboys to win, but not to cover. That 7 point spread is a lot for a team that’s 1-2 against a team that has played some really good football at times this year.

San Diego Chargers 20 Oakland Raiders 24 Upset Pick

Spread: -6 1/2 Chargers

Pick against spread: Oakland (3 units) +300

The Raiders haven’t beaten the Chargers in their last 13 matchups. This is the week I think that changes. The Chargers are a completely different team on the road than at home, going 0-2 on the road against the Chiefs and Seahawks. If they can lose to lose two teams on the road, they can lose to the Raiders. The Chargers are in early season form still and we saw them almost lose to the Raiders last year when they were in early season form. LT has always destroyed the Raiders and that’s why they’ve been so dominant. LT isn’t in San Diego anymore. The Raiders are going to be playing their hearts out to beat a tough divisional rival that they haven’t had a lot of success against, the way the Texans and Jaguars did against the Colts and the way the Bills did against the Patriots, though the Bills did end up falling. The Raiders also have their best quarterback since that 13 game streak started. All things are lining up for the Raiders to shock the world and pull off the upset.

Philadelphia Eagles 21 San Francisco 49ers 28

Spread: -3 1/2 San Francisco

Pick against spread: San Francisco (2 units) -220

This is the 49ers last stand. Very few teams make the playoffs after starting 0-5, even in a division as bad as the NFC West. They are going to be playing their hearts out this week. They’re at home, a place they’ve only been once this year. In that game, they played their best overall football and almost beat the Saints. The Eagles have to travel across 3 time zones, something that teams have trouble doing in the NFL. The 49ers are also playing at home, on Sunday Night Football. Teams this year are 7-2 against the spread at home on either Monday Night or Sunday Night Football. Those two losses were both the Dolphins. I’ve got the 49ers winning, playing 110% at home in their last stand under the Sunday Night Football lights, against a team that’s traveling 3 time zones. However, I’m only putting 2 units, instead of 3. The spread is 3.5 and I could definitely see the 49ers winning by a field goal late.

Minnesota Vikings 17 New York Jets 20

Spread: -4 New York Jets

Pick against spread: Minnesota (1 unit)

This was the toughest pick for me. The Vikings are coming off a bye and just added Randy Moss to their team. Moss won’t do much against Darrelle Revis likely, but he will keep Revis off of Percy Harvin. Harvin, rested off of a bye, should have a big game this week. However, the Jets are playing really well right now beating all 3 AFC East opponents in consectutive weeks. Nothing impressive really about blowing out the Bills, but beating the Dolphins and Patriots are both impressive feats. The Jets are also finally at full strength. Darrelle Revis and Calvin Pace should both be back from injury this week and Santonio Holmes is back from his 4 game suspension. At the end of the day, I decided the Jets defense would be too much for Brett Favre on the road. Favre will probably be sacked and picked off quite a bit this week and that’ll lead to good field position for the Jets. However, I’m taking the Vikings against the spread. Never pick a favorite of more than 3 points in a game between teams you see as evenly matched, because there’s a good chance that game is going to be won by a field goal.

 

Power Rankings will be more detailed next week

The teams that are terrible 

32. Buffalo Bills 0-7

31. Carolina Panthers 1-6

30. Cleveland Browns 2-5

29. Dallas Cowboys 1-6

The teams that are not quite as terrible, but still pretty terrible 

28. San Francisco 49ers 2-6

27. Denver Broncos 2-6

26. Arizona Cardinals 3-4

25. Cincinnati Bengals 2-5

The team that should be a sleeper in 2011, but everyone will have them as their sleeper so much that they’ll actually become overrated

24. Detroit Lions 2-5

The teams that are in worse shape than their record would appear 

23. Jacksonville Jaguars 4-4

22. Chicago Bears 4-3

The teams that have surprised

21. Oakland Raiders 4-4

20. St. Louis Rams 4-4

The team that’s best in the NFC West, but only by default

19. Seattle Seahawks 4-3

The teams in massive chaos that could still make the playoffs because the NFC sucks 

18. Minnesota Vikings 2-5

17. Washington Redskins 4-4

 

The teams that are in the middle of the pack 

16. Miami Dolphins 4-3

15. Houston Texans 4-3

The teams that haven’t beaten anyone, but have amazing records 

14. Kansas City Chiefs 5-2

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-2

The team poised for a 2nd half run 

12. San Diego Chargers 3-5

The team that’s overrated, but will still make the playoffs because the NFC sucks 

11. Philadelphia Eagles 4-3

The team that just signed Randy Moss 

10. Tennessee Titans 5-3

The teams that can beat anyone on any given Sunday, but often don’t 

9. New York Giants 5-2

8. Baltimore Ravens 5-2

7. New Orleans Saints 5-3

6. Green Bay Packers 4-3

The teams that are great, but not elite 

5. New York Jets 5-2

4. Atlanta Falcons 5-2

The elite runner ups 

3. Indianapolis Colts 5-2

2. Pittsburgh Steelers 5-2

The favorite 

1. New England Patriots 6-1

 

 

Defensive Tackle/3-4 Defensive End

Auburn

6-4 297

Draft Board Overall Prospect Rank: #3

Draft Board Overall Defensive Tackle Rank: #1

Rating: 96 (Elite)

40 time: 4.82

2/27/11: Fairley came in here trying to separate himself from all the other #1 pick candidates. Being 6-3 291 instead of 6-5 300 didn’t help. For comparison, Marcell Dareus was 6-3 318.

2/20/11: Nick Fairley’s 2010 season was the definition of a breakout season, as the little known defensive tackle from Auburn exploded for 12.5 sacks, .5 more than Ndamukong Suh had in 2009, despite missing one game. However, he widely regarded as a lesser prospect than Ndamukong Suh, for several reasons. One, and most important to me, he only did this one year. He had 1 sack in 2009 and didn’t play in 2008. That’s the definition of a one year wonder. Suh was a 3 year starter that had totaled a fairly impressive 7 sacks in 2008, before his 2009 season.

Suh was also much more well rounded. Suh could deflect passes at the line of scrimmage and chase running backs out of the backfield. In addition to 12 sacks, he also LED his team in tackles and was second in pass deflections. His 26 quarterback pressures were 5 more than Fairley’s 21. Suh also played with better leverage than Fairley

Finally, and the least important reason to me, is Fairley’s “dirty” label. People are calling him an immature personal foul machine that will be suspended several times in his career and commit one 15 yard personal foul penalty every game. While it is true, a lot of Fairley’s hits this year would have drawn penalties in the NFL, but they didn’t in college football. Isn’t it possible he could change his style of play to be less erratic in the NFL? It’s much easier for a coach to calm a player’s play down than to coach him up.

You can’t coach Fairley’s type of motor. He doesn’t take plays off. Just because he committed some dirty hits in college, doesn’t mean he’s going to become Albert Haynesworth, step on Andre Gurode’s face with cleats, only try in contact years, make 100 million dollars and then bitch about a 3-4 scheme he hasn’t even tried yet.

Fairley seems like a good kid. He doesn’t take plays off and while that could certainly change once he’s given a ton of money in the NFL, I’m not going to let that stop me from ranking him high. Any defensive linemen ever drafted high could bust when given a ton of money. Suh could have (he obviously didn’t, but he could have). Besides, Suh wasn’t the cleanest player in college or in the NFL. He was fined several times for hits on quarterbacks this year and had some dirty hits at Nebraska. Fairley’s personal fouls are not as big of a concern as his potential to be a one year wonder and his lack of a complete game like Suh.

However, Fairley could still be drafted higher than Suh. He seems like the consensus top pick right now, and while I still have AJ Green going #1 because I think it’s too soon to tell and Green makes more sense to me. This, however, doesn’t mean that he’s a consensus better prospect than Suh. This is just a weaker class. There’s no Sam Bradford in this class and if there wasn’t one last year, Suh would have been the #1 pick in a heartbeat. If Suh were in this class, Fairley would be the consensus #2 prospect and the Panthers probably would have already announced they were taking Suh. Suh’s just better.

Fairley probably is the only top 3 pick lock in this class right now. He has the ability to play inside in a 4-3 and outside in a 3-4 as a 3-4 defensive end. He won’t fall past the Bills at #3. I just can’t see it happening, barring some sort of freak incident between now and draft day. He’s the best overall defensive lineman in what could be the strongest defensive line class in NFL history.

I wouldn’t take Fairley #1 just because of his one year wonder potential, even if defensive tackle was my #1 need (which I don’t feel it is for Carolina). However, I still have him as my 3^rd overall prospect. He’s a very, very strong prospect. He was simply impossible to keep away from the quarterback this year. He was Suh-like in that regarded and while he isn’t the overall player Suh is, I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up as the Defensive Player of the Year in 2011 (assuming we have football) and approached Suh’s unbelievable 10 sacks. Fairley appears to be next in the line of 300 pound defensive tackles who pass rush like defensive ends, a fact that should have NFL quarterbacks shitting their pants in fear.

NFL Comparison: Darnell Dockett

 

 

 

2010 Record: 10-6

Draft Position: 32

2010 Season Recap: Click Here

Offseason Needs: Click Here

Free Agents/Team Transactions: Click Here

Draft Grades: Click Here

Key Offseason Moves: Resigned AJ Hawk

 

2010 Posts:  

Packers playoff win sees some “firsts”, Packers vs. Lions Preview, Packers down 49ers 34-16, Packers-49ers Preview, Packers Players News and Notes, Packers fall to Falcons 20-17, Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons Preview, Packers-Vikings post-mortem: nice!, Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings Preview, Packers/Cowboys Preview, Packers no-name defense gets it done vs. Jets, Packers vs. Jets Preview, Kudos to Capers, the Packers MacGyver, Packers vs. Vikings: Sunday eve Favremageddon, Vikings come to Lambeau Field, Packers vs. Dolphins Preview, Packers-Redskins Review, Packers vs. Redskins Prediction, Packers vs. Redskins Preview, Packers-Lions Recap, Packers/Bears Review, Packers vs. Bears: Monday Night Preview, Packers vs. Da Bears Pre-Preview: The Rivalry, Packers/Bills Recap, Packers/Bills Preview, The Packers’ Win From The Day After, Green Bay Packers 2010 Season Preview, Packers vs. Chiefs Preseason Game #4 Preview

 

By Packrphan 

Installment #3 of the duel between the Green Bay Packers and the Ol’ #4-led Minnesota ViQueens kicks off at 7:20 p.m. tonight at Lambeau Field. The Packers are favored by 3 points — the home field advantage. Temps will be in the mid-50s, great for late October. Showers are expected to taper off. If rain persists, it may turn the event into a running game…which would favor the ‘Queens and RB Adrian Peterson. Especially since the Packers’ running game has basically been put on the back burner of head coach Mike McCarthy’s play calling, despite his protestations to the contrary. One of the keys to this game, though, is really about keeping Peterson contained more so than getting the moribund (look it up!) running game of the Packers going. Keep Peterson in check, as the Pack did in their two games last season, make Ol’ #4 have to throw the ball, get pressure on him — as the Pack did not in their two games last season — and that will go a long way to determining the outcome of this game.

On the flip side, Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers has to play better than he did against his counterpart in the two meetings of last season. It would help, of course, if his offensive line also protected him better than it did then. ‘Queens DE Jared Allen isn’t the sack machine he was a year ago and tonight is no time for him to begin reprising that role. Chad Clifton and Bryan Bulaga — likely getting the start at tackle again for Mark Tauscher — will have to be on their game. Rodgers, for his part, needs to get rid of the ball more quickly than when these teams last met. Of late, he seems to have reverted a bit to this old habit which could come back to haunt him and the Pack. Let’s hope not. RB Brandon Jackson and whomever else coach McCarthy tosses in to run a few times need to do enough to keep the Minnesota defense honest and out of a constant blitz barrage. Rodgers and his receivers also need to do a much better job of converting third downs. To date, that has been a situation which has contributed directly to the Pack’s three losses. If it’s the same old tune tonight…well, that wouldn’t be good.

The Packers’ defense should get a boost from having linebackers Brandon Chillar and Clay Matthews back in the lineup, along with DE Ryan Pickett. All three are still listed as questionable on the Packers’ injury report, but expectations are that they will see action. Matthews is obviously critical to getting pressure on Favre. And Chillar’s ability to cover over the middle will also play a role in the defense’s success tonight. Pickett’s ability to anchor the end of the line will also be key to helping contain Peterson. The news on the return to practice of CB Al Harris and S Atari Bigby this week was a plus, but no moves were made to make them active as of yet. Newly-acquired S Anthony Smith should see some action today backing up Charlie Peprah.

Special teams? Well…containing Minnesota returner Percy Harvin will be a challenge. And if they don’t that could be the difference between winning and losing this game. Add in the need by punter Tim Masthay to do a much better job than he has done recently in helping the Packers manage the opponents’ starting field position and this is still a major area of concern.

What’s the bottom line? For a lot of reasons, the Packers need to win this game. The season is not done, however, if they don’t. But getting the ‘Queens at Lambeau, with a distracted (we hope) Brett Favre, and with a healthier (relatively speaking) defense, is a plus. If the Packers offense can just put 4 quarters of consistent effort across, the Pack should take this game. But it will be close. Very close, as most of the games between these two teams are.

I’m calling it 24-23 Packers.

Go back to Packers Fan Spot 

http://PackerFansUnited.com

 

Peyton Hillis had a huge 2010 season before a disappointing 2011 season. However, this is such a cheap signing, 3 million over 1 year, and the Chiefs have a need for a power back compliment to Jamaal Charles. I love it.

Grade: A

 

 

The Seahawks are in a rare position this season. They are likely going to get a top ten pick as they are now 5-9 and recent lost at home to the previously 1-12 Buccaneers, but they already have a good veteran quarterback. For this reason, I believe they should take one, which may seem counter intuitive, but makes a lot of sense when you think about it.

Quarterback is single most cerebral position in football. You have to learn the offense, the plays, all the receivers routes, and develop good chemistry with receivers on option routes. You have to be able to learn and read complex coverages and read complex blitzes. For the most part, college quarterbacks don’t have to do this as much. A college quarterback, no matter who they are, needs a redshirt year, a year where they are nothing but a backup in case of injury, a year, where they can learn the offense, the routes, the receivers, the coverages, the blitzes, all of those things, in order to fully be a good quarterback in this league. Some require two.

However, with so many quarterbacks, especially elite quarterback prospects, being drafted early out of “we need this guy now” instead of, “well, we’ll need him in a year or two when he’s ready because we already have a decent veteran,” they lose this ability to have this necessary redshirt year. The list of guys thrown out into action in a major way in their rookie year include Joey Harrington (14 games his rookie year), David Carr (16 games), Patrick Ramsey (9 games), Kyle Boller (11 games) Byron Leftwich (15 games), Alex Smith (9 games), Vince Young (15 games).

Speaking of Smith and Young, both are doing decent jobs this season, in fact, of the three guys who have established themselves as guys who look like longterm starters in this league, Smith and Young are two of them. You might think this disproves my argument, but it actually strengths. Vince Young and Alex Smith both sucked when they came out. In two years before being benched, Vince Young threw 21 touchdowns to 30 picks and in three years before being benched, Alex Smith threw 19 touchdowns to 31 picks. However, after finally getting benched and finally sitting for a year plus, both have come back with good seasons and are establishing themselves as starting quarterbacks in the NFL.

The other of the three quarterbacks who have established themselves as starting quarterbacks this year is Chad Henne of the Miami Dolphins. Chad Henne was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2008 NFL Draft and had the luxury of sitting behind veteran Chad Pennington for more than a year. When Pennington got hurt this year, Henne stepped in and has a decent quarterback rating of 73.9 and more importantly is 7-4 as a starter.

Need further proof? Let’s take a look at all of the quarterbacks who are established as starters in this leagues.

Chad Henne- See above.

Tom Brady- Brady sat his entire rookie season behind veteran Drew Bledsoe after being drafted in the 6th round of the 2000 draft with the exception of one game he played where he went 1 for 3 for 6 yards. He took over for Bledsoe after he got hurt in 2001 and has led the Pats to 3 Super Bowls wins since.

Mark Sanchez- Sanchez is a 2009 1st round pick who started his first game as a rookie this season. Its tough to make a decision on him yet, but he has 12 touchdowns to 20 picks this season so he has struggled.

Carson Palmer- A perfect example of the redshirt year working to someone’s advantage, Carson Palmer didn’t make a throw his rookie year behind Comeback Player of the Year Jon Kitna, but took over in his 2nd season and has a career 88.4 QB rating with 126 touchdowns to 78 picks.

Ben Roethlisberger- Made 15 starts his rookie season, so he’s a bit of an exception, but he’s unorthodox style of play makes him an exception to many things. Plus, it should be noted that he only threw 295 passes his rookie year so he was used conservatively.

Joe Flacco- Started all 16 games as a rookie making him a bit of an exception, but he’s still young and he has not extremely impressive so far. Plus, he plays in a conservative offense with a strong running game and a good defense to support him.

Peyton Manning- Started every game of his career making him an exception, but Manning is so good that he’s an exception to most things.

David Garrard- Played in 4 games as a rookie after being drafted in the 4th round of the 2002 draft, but only played in 17 games in his first 4 seasons, making 296 throws in that span of time so he definitely had plenty of sitting and watching time. He took over as the team’s starting quarterback midway through 2006 and hasn’t looked back, with a completion percentage of 60% or more in all 4 season since then and 56 touchdowns to 32 picks in that stretch of time.

Vince Young- See above

Matt Schaub- Spent 3 years on the bench behind Michael Vick throwing a limited 161 throws in those years, before being traded to the Texans in 2007 where he has been the starter ever since.

Phillip Rivers- Another perfect example, Rivers made 30 throws in his first two years as Drew Brees’ backup and then took over as the starter when Brees left to go to New Orleans and has started every game ever since and is one of the winningest starters in the NFL with a record of 44-18 as a starter.

Kyle Orton- Rushed into the starting lineup thanks to an injury to Rex Grossman during his rookie season and made 15 starts with a hideous 59.7 QB rating in those starts. Was not heard from until 2007 when he started 3 more games and then took over as the Bears’ starter in 2008 and then the Broncos starter in 2009 after being traded for Jay Cutler. His QB ratings for the last two years respectively are 79.6 and 89.2.

Matt Cassel- Didn’t make a start until week 2 of his 4th season after Tom Brady got hurt in 2008. He had a good 89.4 QB rating in 2008 and then was traded to Kansas City after Brady returned. He is currently the Chiefs starter and has a mediocre QB rating of 71.1, though he does have very little talent around him to help him out.

Tony Romo- Signed as an undrafted free agent in 2003 with the Cowboys but did not see any game action until 2006 when he took over for veteran Drew Bledsoe. Romo has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league since and is a two time Pro Bowler.

Donovan McNabb- Another exception, McNabb took over as starting quarterback midway through his rookie year and has had a successful career since, with the exception of a small history of injuries.

Eli Manning- Played sparingly in his rookie year, throwing 197 passes behind injury prone starter Kurt Warner and then took over in 2005 as the starter. He struggled early in his career, especially late in the season and at home in the Meadowlands, but worked through that and won the Super Bowl in 2008.

Jason Campbell- Took over as starter of the Redskins 9 games into his 2nd season and has been statistically alright with a career QB rating of 82.2. He is actually having a career season with a QB rating of 87.0 this season, but because his team is not winning and his 5 year rookie contract expires this offseason, he may have to look for another job this offseason, though he has proven he deserves one.

Brett Favre- Threw 4 passes in his rookie season in Atlanta, then was traded to Green Bay directly after his rookie season. And the rest is history.

Aaron Rodgers- While Brett Favre was making that history, Aaron Rodgers was sitting and watching for three years. When Favre retired and then signed with the Jets in 2008, Rodgers took over for Favre and has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league. He has certainly been a lot better than fellow 2005 1st round pick Alex Smith, who was drafted ahead of him and thrown into action during his rookie season.

Jay Cutler- Took over for Jake Plummer 11 games into his rookie season, and made 5 starts. However, with 43 picks over the last two seasons, even though he is an established starter, its safe to say that he’s not so good at learning the offense, the plays, all the receivers routes, and developing good chemistry with receivers on option routes, learning and reading complex coverages and reading complex blitzes. Just saying

Matt Stafford- Its too early to make a judgment on the 2009 1st round pick, who made his first start during week 1 of his rookie season, but throwing 20 picks to 13 touchdowns, despite throwing 5 touchdowns in one game against the lowly Browns, is not a good start.

Drew Brees- Played in one game in his rookie season with the Chargers and took over as the starting quarterback for Doug Flutie in 2002. Though he lost his starting job for a few weeks in 2003 and never established himself as a dominant starting quarterback in San Diego, after he left the Chargers for the Saints four years ago, Brees has been one of the best in the business.

Matt Ryan- Ryan started every game in his rookie season, but had a lot of help from a strong running game, a decent defense, and a weak schedule as he put up a 87.7 QB rating. This year, still the starter, he has struggled some, as their running game hasn’t been as strong nor has their defense, and their schedule is one of the toughest in the NFL. He has a quarterback rating of 79.1 this season and is averaging a lowly 6.4 YPA and I believe he is one of the most overrated quarterbacks in the NFL.

Josh Freeman- Hasn’t started every game as a rookie this season, but has started 7 games, and has 9 touchdowns to 14 picks, so, even though its still early, Freeman’s career has not gotten off to the best start.

Kurt Warner- Signed with the Rams as a 27 year old undrafted free agent in 1998, made 11 throws in his “rookie” year, and took over as their starter in 1999, leading the Rams to the Super Bowl. He has had his ups and downs since, but has made two more trips to the Super Bowl, and is a borderline Hall of Famer at this point with 207 touchdowns to 138 picks and a career 93.7 QB rating.

Matt Hasselbeck- Spent a year on the practice squad and 2 years backing up Brett Favre in Green Bay before being traded to the Seahawks, where he took over for started Trent Dilfer in 2002. He has made three Pro Bowls in his career as a starter, which could be ending soon and hopefully a good young quarterback is waiting on the bench for when he leaves Seattle or retires.

Alex Smith- See above

To make sense of all that I have broken it down into categories and categorized each player in one of those categories.

Started a majority of their rookie season, has had an average career as a starter: 2

Started a majority of their rookie season, has had an above average career as a starter: 3

Took over as starter in late 1st/early 2nd season, has had an average career as a starter: 1

Took over as starter in late 1st/early 2nd season, has had an above average career as a starter: 5       

Took over as starter in mid 2nd season or late, has had an average career as a starter: 4

Took over as starter in mid 2nd season or late, has had an above average career as a starter: 6

Still a rookie, too soon to tell: 3

Started a majority of their rookie season, sat for a period of more than a year after that, then regained a starter’s job: 3

Of the 24 non-rookie established starting quarterbacks profiled, 10 did not take over as starter until midway through their 2nd season or later, and another 6 did not start until late in their rookie season or early in their 2nd. 8 did start the majority of their rookie season, but of those 8, 2 are currently 2nd year players and 3 completely sucked and were later benched before regaining their job. The other three, Donovan McNabb, Ben Roethlisberger, and Peyton Manning, started a majority of their rookie season and hit very few speed bumps in their career and are now Pro Bowl caliber quarterbacks, but they are extremely rare (3 out of 24). All 3 rookie starters this season have more picks than touchdowns showing that this trend could be continuing.

With drafting quarterbacks, the right move is the counter-intuitive one. Draft them when you don’t need them, or before you need them. Seattle is likely going to have a top ten pick this year and with current starting quarterback Matt Hasselbeck being 34 years old, now is a perfect time for them to draft a big upside project quarterback, like Ryan Mallett, who I have said has Peyton Manning esque upside given the right amount of time and good coaching. Sam Bradford, who has the skills, but needs to learn a pro style offense, is also a good fit. 

 

 

By Vince Vitale

The Rams game on Sunday remains us of some nights out drinking. Early on its all good you start with a glass of wine at dinner and then maybe head over to the bar for a couple more drinks. Then things start to go well and everyone is having a good time. This is about the time when someone decides to buy a round of shots perhaps Patron. A few shots later you find yourself out in the parking lot wondering what happened. Well we have all been there before, and the Rams were there on Sunday. 

With 1:37 left in the first half of play the Rams Darian Stewart recovered a fumble by Courtney Roby on the Saints 21 yard line with the Rams trailing 14-6. After being outplayed for most of the first half the Rams had a chance to get right back into the game. After a 6 yard run by Steven Jackson Sam Bradford dropped back on 2nd and 4 and threw a ball down the left sideline to Laurent Robinson who appeared open. What Bradford did not see was Malcolm Jenkins coming over from the middle of the field to pick off his softly floating pass. 96 yards later Jenkins was in the house and the Saints were up 21-6 and for all intensive purposes this game was put on ice.

The final numbers do not tell the story since the Rams played with a lot of heart in the 4th quarter and continued to put up stats. Although losing by 18 points Sam Bradford threw for 231 yards, while Drew Brees threw for 221. St. Louis Rams also outrushed the Saints 136 to 132 yards. As I stated in my game preview this game would come down to mistakes and execution.

The Rams most likely would need to win the turnover battle and needed to be better on third down conversions to have a chance to beat the Saints. While the turnover battle was tied at three the Saints by far won the battle. The interception by Jenkins most likely cost the Rams at least 3 points and gave the Saints an instant 7 points. In the 4th quarter Bradford also threw another interception from the Saints 7 yard line. As costly as those mistakes were the Rams compounded that by allowing the Saints to start 10 of 12 on 3rd down conversions while the Rams started 0-of-7. This helped allow the Saints to jump out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter. For a team like the Rams that has a hard time scoring 20 points they can not afford to give up 14 points that quickly. The crushing blow was when Brees hit Colston on 3rd and 17 from the 17 when the Rams inexplicitly only rushed 3 and dropped 8 into coverage. The laser from Brees was just too hard for the Rams secondary to get there in time and the hole was dug.

After having a less than great game last week against the Arizona Cardinals Sam Bradford struggled again today with a QB rating of 56.3. With three games left to play Bradford is going to have to play much better to help the Rams win the NFC West. The Seattle Seahawks lost 40-21 to the San Francisco 49ers today so the Rams remain in first place, but don’t look now the 49ers are once again only one game out. The will host the 8-5 Kansas City next week in a huge game for both teams.

On a side note congratulations to Steven Jackson for going over 1000 yards rushing for the 6th straight year!

Go back to Rams Fan Spot 

http://www.stlouisramfan.com/

 

27. CB Jimmy Smith A-

The Ravens made this pick at 27 instead of 26 because a botched trade with Eugene Levy…er Jerry Angelo and the Bears forced them to go over their time on the clock. However, I’m not holding that against them because they still got their guy and it wasn’t even their fault. Smith fits the range well, but I had Brandon Harris rated higher as a cornerback. I also didn’t have cornerback rated that highly as a need. They may only have two under contract, but they’re either going to resign Chris Carr or sign Nnamdi Asomugha so they’d really only need a 4^th cornerback. Yes, you can never have enough corners and a trio of Lardarius Webb (assuming he’s healthy), Carr/Asomugha, and Smith is pretty nice, but I think their pass rush was the bigger problem with their pass defense. Outside of Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata, they managed just 11.5 sacks. That’s not very many. They desperately needed a 3^rd pass rusher.

58. WR Torrey Smith B

I think Smith was a reach by about a round here, though people obviously disagree with me. I don’t like his inconsistent production and small hands. However, there’s no denying he fills a need for them as a speedy receiver to stretch the field.

85. OT Jah Reid C-

Right tackle was definitely a need, as was right guard and Reid can play either of those positions. I just don’t get using a 3^rd rounder on him. I had a 5^th round grade on him. Also, I don’t like that they traded up for him.

123. WR Tandon Doss A-

Two receivers? Well I don’t hate it. Their receiving corps are pretty thin, but they had other needs. They need to get a 3^rd pass rusher. Doss is a good value at this point though.

164. CB Chykie Brown B-

More cornerback depth here. They had other needs, but given that they technically only have 2 cornerbacks signed for next year, adding 2 cornerbacks in one draft isn’t a terrible idea. Also, Brown fits the range.

165. 3-4 DE Pernell McPhee C+

Well this is a pass rusher and McPhee fits the range, I just don’t think he fits the 3-4 scheme at all.

180. QB Tyrod Taylor B-

A backup quarterback shouldn’t have been high on their list, but Marc Bulger is probably gone as a free agent so this makes some sense even though he’s a minor reach.

225. RB Anthony Allen A

Willis McGahee probably will be gone this offseason so they need another power back to spell Ray Rice.

Overall:

This was a pretty solid draft. Only the Jah Reid selection was a major reach and at least they filled a need with that one. I would have liked to have seen them grab a 3^rd pass rusher along with Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata rather than taking two cornerbacks, but Jimmy Smith in the first round was an above average pick. Torrey Smith was a reach in the 2^nd round, but he fits their needs like a glove. There was nothing amazing about this draft, but it wasn’t bad either.

Grade: B

 

 

Trade for New Orleans: They were likely just going to cut him for nothing so credit the Saints for getting a pick and a player in return. I don’t know much about Amaya, but if he can make the roster, he’ll be an added bonus in this deal.

Grade: A

Trade for Miami: All in all, the Dolphins are giving up 10 million over 2 years, a late rounder, and a reserve safety for Bush. I think they overpaid. Bush has never proven he can stay healthy and he’ll just be a backup running back to rookie Daniel Thomas. They gave up too much, particularly in terms of money, to get him.

Grade: C