11/25/11 2:30 PM ET

Arkansas at LSU

WR Jarius Wright (Arkansas) #4

Arkansas’ all time leading receiver, the senior Wright has 3 years of strong production with Ryan Mallett and Tyler Wilson at quarterback, Wright has really stepped up in place of Greg Childs’ injury and is having a career year as a senior. In 11 games, he has 61 catches for 1002 yards and 10 touchdowns. Last season, he caught 42 passes for 788 yards and 5 touchdowns and in 2009 he had 41 catches for 681 yards and 5 touchdowns. The 5-10 180 pound receiver isn’t the most athletic, but he’s a great pass catcher and should make a nice slot receiver at the next level. He looks like a day 2 pick.

WR Rueben Randle (LSU) #2

A big, physical receiver, the 6-4 210 pound receiver is having a strong junior season and could be a day 2 pick if he declares early. He’s a great run blocker and has caught 39 passes for 755 yards and 8 touchdowns on a conservative offensive with inconsistent quarterback play. LSU has completed 139 passes for 1844 yards and 19 touchdown of Randle is a large portion of their offense. He has all the tools to be an elite receiver at the next level, but he might be best served to return for his senior season and put up another year of strong production. He looks like an early day 3, late day 2 prospect at this point. After struggling against Alabama and Dre Kirkpatrick, he needs a good game here.

11/25/11 7 PM ET

Pittsburgh at West Virginia

CB Keith Tandy (Pittsburgh) #8

A mid round pick and a 3 year starter, Tandy has 49 tackles, 9 deflections, 3 picks, and 2 tackles for loss on the season. In 2010, he had 57 tackles, 11 deflections, 6 picks, and 3 tackles for loss. In 2009, he had 61 tackles, 4 deflections, 3 picks, and 4 tackles for loss. He’s a bit undersized at 5-10 195, but he did a decent job on Rutgers’ Mohamed Sanu a few weeks ago.

OT Don Barclay (West Virginia) #64

Not the most athletic guy at 6-4 310, but West Virginia’s left tackle looks like a draftable prospect. He’ll probably have to move to right tackle or guard at the next level. He’ll be matched up with Brandon Lindsey in this game. Lindsey is a fringe day 2 prospect, but needs to pick up his production. After 10 sacks last year, he has 5.5 this year and needs a good job him to help his stock.

11/25/11 10:15 PM ET

California at Arizona State

MLB Vontaze Burflict (Arizona State) #7

He gets a bad rep for being a dirty player, and while he will draw more flags than most players, it’s really just because his motor is non-stop. Plenty of people close to him will vouch that this is not a bad kid, but in fact a high character kid who loves football. Burflict could be the first linebacker off the board this year and is prematurely drawing comparisons to guys like Ray Lewis, Bart Scott, and Rolando McClain. It might not show so much on the stat sheet, but this kid has all the abilities and a world of upside. He has 63 tackles, 7 for loss, 5 sacks, 3 pass breakups, and a pick on the year in 11 games. He’s a powerful hitter who also can do all of the finesse things as well.

MLB Mychal Kendricks (California) #30

A 6-0 240 pound 3-4 middle linebacker in Cal’s 3-4 defense, Kendricks has 3 years of starting experience and has played both inside and outside at rush linebacker. This year he has 87 tackles, 10.5 for loss, 1.5 sacks, 2 deflections and 2 picks inside and last year he had 65 tackles, 14.5 for loss, 7 sacks, and a pick on the outside. He’s best fit as a 3-4 middle linebacker, but can also play in a 4-3. He’d be a good blitzing linebacker at the next level as well. He looks like a mid round pick at the next level.

 

11/26/11 12 PM ET

Iowa State at Oklahoma

CB Jamell Fleming (Oklahoma) #32

A day 3 pick, the 5-11 190 pound Fleming has 6 pass deflections and an interception on the season. He’s a 2 year starter and is looking to get drafted late.

CB Leonard Johnson (Iowa State) #23

A rising prospect and a potential day 2 pick, though likely an early day 3 pick, Johnson has 57 tackles, 2 for loss, 6 deflections, and a pick. He had a good game against Oklahoma State’s awesome passing attack and is now rising and if he plays well against Oklahoma, he could end up in the 2^nd day of the draft.

11/26/11 3:30 PM ET

Alabama at Auburn

DT Josh Chapman (Alabama) #99

Josh Chapman doesn’t make a huge impact on the stat sheet with 20 tackles, 3.5 tackles for a loss, and a sack on the season, but the 6-1 310 nose tackle is great at tying up blockers and making things happen for the linebacker behind him in Alabama’s 3-4 defense. He’s gaining some steam as a potential 2nd or even late 1st rounder.

OT Barrett Jones (Alabama) #75

A left tackle at Alabama, Jones, a much better run blocker than a pass protector, projects as a guard at the next level. He’s got great technique, but he’s not very athletic and he doesn’t have the size (6-5 305) to make up for it. However, in Alabama’s run heavy offense, he’s a beast and part of the reason why Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson have had so much success in recent years.

11/26/11 8 PM ET

Notre Dame at Stanford

OLB Darius Fleming (Notre Dame) #45

A hybrid linebacker in Notre Dame’s 3-4/4-3 defense, the 6-2 255 pound Fleming has 49 tackles, 6 for loss, 3.5 sacks, and 3 pass deflections on the season. He looks like a late round pick.

S Delano Howell (Stanford) #26

A 3 year starter at strong safety for Stanford, the 5-11 200 pound Howell has been battling injury problems all year and has just 27 tackles in 8 games. Last year, he had 60 tackles, 1.5 for loss, 1 sack, 5 picks, and 5 deflections. He didn’t have a good game against Oregon, missing several tackles and struggling with Oregon’s speed. The undersized safety is probably a late round pick

 

Week 3 Injury Report 

Week 3 Pickups 

 

Are the Redskins trying to sign every washed up running back in the league? Clinton Portis will turn 29 next season. He’s the incumbent starter, but he had some nasty issues last year with a concussion, as well as leg injuries, and only managed 494 yards and a score on 124 carries. He’s the young one of the group. Parker turns 30 in November and is coming off of two injury riddled years. He only managed 389 yards and no scores on 98 carries last year. Larry Johnson turns 31 in November. He leads the group in carries (178) and yards (581) from last year, but he still didn’t score a touchdown all year and managed a pathetic 3.3 YPC. All 3 of those guys will be 29 or older next year, which is like being 39 in normal years. I really don’t see a starting running back anywhere in this group and adding all of these washed up veterans is hurting them for the future. First of all, they might not have another roster spot for another running back, though I know Mike Shanahan would love to take a guy in the 5^th round. Second of all, the only way they can get that young, talented running back, any experience at all, would be to piss off a bunch of old established veterans who think they are still 25, 26, still get paid like feature backs, but are not.

Grade: C-

 

 

This mock is what I think will happen. To see what I think should happen, check out my alternate “Should” Mock Draft. 

Be sure to check out The Football Fan Spot Thursday, Friday, and possibly Saturday during the draft for our official NFL Draft Live Blog

2nd 

St. Louis Rams- DE Everson Griffen (USC)

Minnesota Vikings- QB Jimmy Clausen (Notre Dame)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers- WR Arrelious Benn (Illinois)

Kansas City Chiefs- NT Terrence Cody (Alabama)

Philadelphia Eagles- S Taylor Mays (USC)

Cleveland Browns- QB Colt McCoy (Texas)

Oakland Raiders- OT Bruce Campbell (Maryland)

Miami Dolphins- RLB Sergio Kindle (Texas)

Buffalo Bills- OT Charles Brown (USC)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers- S Nate Allen (South Florida)

Baltimore Ravens- DE Carlos Dunlap (Florida)

New England Patriots- 3-4 DE Alex Carrington (Arkansas State)

Denver Broncos- NT Linval Joseph (East Carolina)

New York Giants- DT Brian Price (UCLA)

New England Patriots- WR Golden Tate (Notre Dame)

Carolina Panthers- WR Damian Williams (USC)

San Francisco 49ers- CB Brandon Ghee (Wake Forest)

Kansas City Chiefs- TE Aaron Hernandez  (Florida)

Houston Texans- DT LaMarr Houston (Texas)

Pittsburgh Steelers- WR Brandon LaFell (LSU)

New England Patriots- RLB Jason Worilds (Virginia Tech)

Cincinnati Bengals- S Morgan Burnett (Georgia Tech)

Philadelphia Eagles- CB Chris Cook (Virginia)

Green Bay Packers- RB Dexter McCluster (Mississippi)

Baltimore Ravens- TE Rob Gronkowski (Arizona)

Arizona Cardinals- OT Roger Saffold (Indiana)

Dallas Cowboys- OT Jason Veldheer (Hillsdale)

Seattle Seahawks- RB Joe McKnight (USC)

New York Jets- 3-4 DE Corey Wootton (Northwestern)

Minnesota Vikings- DT Geno Atkins (Georgia)

Indianapolis Colts- OLB Daryl Washington (TCU)

New Orleans Saints- OLB Navarro Bowman (Penn State)

 

3rd  

St. Louis Rams- WR Marshawn Gilyard (Cincinnati)

Detroit Lions- CB Amari Spievey (Iowa)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers- DE Jermaine Gresham (Florida)

Kansas City Chiefs- OT Jason Fox (Miami)

Oakland Raiders- DT Jeff Owens (Georgia)

Baltimore Ravens- CB Perrish Cox (Oklahoma State)

Cleveland Browns- S Chad Jones (LSU)

Buffalo Bills- QB John Skelton (Fordham)

Miami Dolphins- NT Cam Thomas (North Carolina)

Jacksonville Jaguars- CB Domonique Franks (Oklahoma)

Chicago Bears- CB Myron Lewis (Vanderbilt)

New York Giants- RB Montario Hardesty (Tennessee)

Tennessee Titans- CB Akwasi Owusu-Ansah (IUPUI)

Carolina Panthers- DT Mike Neal (Purdue)

San Francisco 49ers- MLB Brandon Spikes (Florida)

Denver Broncos- RB Jonathan Dwyer (Georgia Tech)

Houston Texans- S Major Wright (Florida)

Pittsburgh Steelers- 3 -4 DE Arthur Jones (Syracuse)

Atlanta Falcons- WR Andre Roberts (Citadel)

Cincinnati Bengals- CB Javier Arenas (Alabama)

Cleveland Browns-  G Vlad Ducasse (Massachusetts)

Green Bay Packers- RLB Ricky Sapp (Clemson)

Denver Broncos- MLB Pat Angerer (Iowa)

Arizona Cardinals- TE Jimmy Graham (Miami)

Arizona Cardinals- MLB Jamar Chaney (Mississippi State)

New England Patriots- RB Toby Gerhart (Stanford)

San Diego Chargers- NT Torrell Troup (Central Florida)

Cleveland Browns- WR Eric Decker (Minnesota)

Minnesota Vikings- G John Jerry (Mississippi)

Indianapolis Colts- OT Tony Washington (TCU)

New Orleans Saints- RB Ben Tate (Auburn)

Cincinnati Bengals- WR Jacoby Ford (Clemson)

Tennessee Titans- OLB AJ Edds (Iowa)

Atlanta Falcons- DE CJ Wilson (East Carolina)

 

 

 

 

So let me see if I got this straight. The Bears offered Kreutz 4 million. He refused, demanding 500K more. The Bears didn’t give him that. Their players, Kreutz’ former teammates, were not happy about this and it looked like it upset the team’s all important chemistry. The Bears then went out and signed Chris Spencer for 2 years 6 million. Today, with options running out, Kreutz accepts a deal for the Saints for 2 million dollars with incentives that max out at 4 million, what the Bears offered him. Sounds like a lose/lose, except for the Saints who are getting a solid veteran center at a cheap rate. He’ll give them an upgrade over projected starter Matt Tennant, an inexperienced 2^nd year player.

The Saints are quietly having a nice offseason, shoring up their defensive line (drafting Cameron Jordan and signing Aubrayo Franklin), shoring up their offensive line (resigning Jermon Bushrod and signing Olin Kreutz), fixing their running game (drafting Mark Ingram, resigning Pierre Thomas, signing Darren Sproles), getting rid of Reggie Bush’s contract, and all without breaking the bank.

Grade: A

 

By Packrphan 

The Green Bay Packers go into Sunday’s game with the Washington Redskins as a wounded team. A rash of injuries has led any number of pundits who were onboard the Packers Super Bowl train to now say…well, maybe not. Two starters, RB Ryan Grant and S Morgan Burnett, are done for the year. LB Nick Barnett is out for Sunday’s game and may be done for the season pending the decision on wrist surgery. Barnett Tweeted Saturday afternoon that, “Just finished another scan.. We are getting very close to putting together a plan… Meet with dr.. So.. Things are getting closer”. Hmm… 

Other injured starters and key backups on both sides of the ball mean the eight-cylinder engine is now firing on six (not exactly a football metaphor, but you get the point). LB Brandon Chillar, FB Quinn Johnson, CB Sam Shields are all listed as out for tomorrow, as well. T Mark Tauscher is listed as doubtful, but most reports are projecting rookie Bryan Bulaga will get the start. To fill the other spots, such players as Desmond Bishop, Charlie Peprah and others who usually get their playing time on special teams will be called upon to fill mighty big shoes. It’s their chance to show what they can do. And it will likely be that way for a while. 

As the Pack goes into a stretch of games starting with an improved Washington team, followed by Miami and Minnesota at Lambeau, then at the Jets, and finally back home to face the Cowboys before heading into their bye week, this game shapes up as a rather pivotal game. If the Packers can play even a semblance of a complete game on offense, they should win this game against the ‘skins. Because it’s likely going to take lots of points to do so given the state of the defense. 

With a depleted secondary and linebacking corps, the Packers are exposed against Washington’s underneath passing game using their tight ends, as well as the downfield passing game when QB Donovan McNabb wants to take his shots with their limited wide receiver corps. And, let’s not forget the problem that the Packers have trying to corral scrambling quarterbacks. McNabb has generally played well against the Packers in the past and there is no reason to suspect he won’t play well Sunday. The question is whether he’ll have an emotional letdown after the ‘skins big victory in Philly last weekend. 

Washington comes in much healthier than do the Packers. The only starter out for the ‘skins is RB Clinton Portis. DT Albert Haynesworth will also reportedly miss the game; his younger brother, Lance, was killed in a motorcycle accident late this last week. (Our sincere condolences to the Haynesworth family.) 

The current line on the game has the Packers favored by 2-1/2 points. This is a difficult game to predict given the Packers’ narrow victory at home over the Lions last weekend. Yes, the Lions are an improved team. But the Pack played very poorly in almost every phase of the game. Fortunately, the Packers were finally able to get a grind-it-out running game going to eat up the clock at the end to preserve the victory. According to all reports and comments from coaches and players alike, the feeling in the locker room afterward was one where they had to be reminded that they won the game. Perhaps that will be the motivation they need to start playing the type of football they are capable of playing, and which we have yet to see this season. Even with the injuries, players need to step up. Coaches have made it clear they are not going to change schemes because of who is and who isn’t available. Do we really buy that? 

The Pack will have to make to do. Whether that will be good enough to get them a win in Washington or not…? 

The complete Packers “Dope Sheet” on the match up can be found here: http://bit.ly/dAnW42

http://PackerFansUnited.com 

 

At this time last year, some were talking about the Patriots as a potential 9-7 or 8-8 team that would miss the playoffs. The Jets were the talk of the division and some were even speculating the Dolphins were better than the Patriots. Their defense was inexperienced and their key offensive players were on the wrong side of 30 (Tom Brady, Wes Welker, Randy Moss).

The Patriots did what they did whenever anyone doubts them; they dominated. After starting the season sluggish, losing to the Jets in 28-14 week 2, the Patriots traded Randy Moss after week 4 and only lost one more regular season game the rest of the way (to the Browns), dominating the Jets 45-3 in the process. Unfortunately, their season came to a crashing halt with a 28-21 home loss to the Jets in the first round of the playoffs.

Now, some are once again suggesting the Jets are the better team in the division, which should be more fuel for the Patriots heading into the season. Yes, the Jets have reached back to back AFC Championship games, but the Patriots went 14-2 last year, 3 games better than the Jets. That can’t be discounted. What also can’t be discounted is that their defense will be better this year.

Young players like Jermaine Cunningham, Brandon Spikes, Jerod Mayo, and Devin McCourty have more experience under their belt and all of those guys got better as the season went on, particularly McCourty who made the Pro Bowl as a rookie. The Patriots have also added veterans like Shaun Ellis, Albert Haynesworth, and Andre Carter to their defensive line, allowing them more defensive flexibility.

It appears that the always adapting Patriots will be moving either partially or completely to a 4-3 defense from a 3-4 this year. Andre Carter dominated in his last season in a 4-3, with 11 sacks as recently as 2009. Haynesworth, meanwhile, had 4 sacks as a defensive tackle in 2009 in a 4-3. Haynesworth didn’t even have the motivation in 2009 that he has now. Haynesworth will be motivated to prove Mike Shanahan wrong for letting him go. He also doesn’t have any guaranteed money on his contract. I’m not saying Haynesworth will have 8.5 sacks like he did in 2008 before he got his big deal or Carter will put up 11 sacks again, but both will be talented contributors for them when they go into a 4-3.

Rounding out their 4-3 defensive line are Vince Wilfork, one of the few mainstays on this defense and a perennial Pro Bowler, and Jermaine Cunningham, a 2010 2^nd round pick who showed some promise as a rookie last year. Shaun Ellis will also be in the mix as an end and could slide inside to tackle on passing downs. When (if?) they go to a 3-4, Wilfork will play the nose. Wilfork has experience in both a 3-4 and a 4-3 in his career so he’ll be a key to their team, whichever scheme they play. In a 3-4, their ends will be Shaun Ellis and Gerard Warren. Albert Haynesworth will also be in the mix.

No matter which defensive scheme they play, Jerod Mayo figures to be very big playmaker for them. Mayo, only 25, led the league in tackles last year. He dominated in college at Tennessee in a 4-3, so he’ll fit whatever scheme they play. Brandon Spikes and Gary Guyton are their other talented young linebackers. Spikes, a 2^nd year player, ran a 5.0+ 40 at The Combine in 2010 so I have some worries about how he fits a 4-3.

In a 3-4, Spikes and Mayo team up in the middle to wreak havoc. Jermaine Cunningham would play one rush linebacker spot, while Mark Anderson, Rob Ninkovich, and Andre Carter would see some time at the other rush linebacker spot. Basically, they have a lot of talented role players, which allows them to have a lot of versatility in the front 7, just what Belichick likes.

In the secondary, they should be better than they were last year. Devin McCourty, as you already know, was a Pro Bowler. However, they had nothing opposite him as both Darius Butler and Kyle Arrington were mediocre at best. Leigh Bodden is back from injury and 2^nd round pick Ras-I Dowling will also be in the mix. At safety, Brandon Meriweather, James Sanders, and Patrick Chung will also be significant playmakers.

 

Offensively, it’ll be the same story. They’re going to be very, very good as long as Tom Brady is under center. The Patriots return 4 of 5 starters from an offensive line that was one of the best in the league last year and they will get a full season of Logan Mankins, an extremely talented guard who stepped in midseason after a holdout made a huge difference. He’ll be even better this season with no holdout distracting him. They also have 17^th overall pick Nate Solder waiting in the wings.

The only non-starter from last year on the line is Dan Connolly, though Connolly did see significant time when Mankins was holding out and he played alright. At the tackles, Matt Light has resigned to be their starting left tackle. He was a very talented player for the Patriots in his prime, but he’s declining and could even be moved to right tackle this season. That wouldn’t be a problem for the Patriots because right tackle Sebastian Vollmer is an extremely talented player who allowed just one sack all last season and deserves a shot on the left side in his 3^rd year in the league. Center Dan Koppen is also a declining player, but still above average.

At receiver, the Patriots will mix things up a lot. They will go to a lot of three wide receiver sets with Deion Branch, Chad Ochocinco, and Wes Welker. Ocho gives them the legitimate deep threat they lacked last year, a huge part of the reason why they lost against the Jets. Wes Welker will be better this year than last year as he’s another year removed from major knee surgery. Remember, this guy led the league in catches in 2009 despite missing 3 games with injury. Branch, meanwhile, had a career rebirth after being traded back to the Patriots from Seattle. They also can go to a two-tight end set with two talented 2^nd year tight ends in Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.

In the backfield, it’s anyone’s guess. BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead did a capable job with the running game last year, with BJGE as the bruising back and Woodhead as the shifty speed back and pass catcher. They were rewarded by the Patriots drafting Shane Vereen (a shifty speed back and pass catcher) and Stevan Ridley (a bruising back).

All in all, I don’t think the Patriots will be worse on the ground than last year and the running game is hardly the reason this offense goes. This offense will certainly go and the defense, though it lacks stars, is heavy on quality role players and I trust Belichick to design a scheme that suits everyone’s strengths. I’m not sure they’ll go 14-2 again, but they’ll once again be among the league’s best teams, at least in the regular season. However, none of that will matter to them if they can’t get it done in the playoffs once again.

Quarterback: A

Running backs: C+

Receiving corps: B

Offensive line: A-

Run defense: B-

Pass rush: B

Pass coverage: B+

Coaching: A

Projection: 14-2 1^st in the AFC East

 

 

 

Unless noted, all odds as of August 19th 

5 unit bets 

San Francisco to miss playoffs -190 (August 29th)

How the hell does this team make the playoffs? They’re probably the worst team in the league. Easy money. 

4 unit bets 

San Francisco under 7 ½ wins -105

San Francisco might have the worst stop unit in the league after losing 4 starters who they didn’t replace. On offense, things aren’t much better as Alex Smith is the quarterback behind what looks like a miserable line in the preseason. There’s no way in hell this team gets 8 wins.

Arizona to win NFC West +210

St. Louis to win NFC West +200

I’m pairing these two together. I can’t see anyway San Francisco or Seattle wins this division. It’s going to be one of these two. If it’s Arizona, I win 210 and lose 100 (from St. Louis). If it’s St. Louis, I win 200 and lose 100. Basically, this is an Arizona/St. Louis will win NFC West +105 bet. I’d take that.

Tony Romo over 4000 yards -135 (9/2)

In 6 and a 1/2 games with Jason Garrett, Jon Kitna threw for the equivalent of 4650 passing yards in 16 games. In the first 5 games of last season, Tony Romo threw the equivalent of 5011 yards in 16 games. Romo threw for 4211 yards in 2007 and 4483 yards in 2009. Barring injury, he gets 4000+ this season.

Kenny Britt over 5 touchdowns -115 (9/2)

Kenny Britt caught 9 touchdowns in 12 games last year with Vince Young, Rusty Smith, and Kerry Collins at quarterback. He’s now in his 3^rd year and has Matt Hasselbeck or Jake Locker throwing to him. He should breeze past 5 touchdowns.

3 unit bets

Miami under 7 ½ wins -140

Miami only won 7 games last year despite a minus 60 differential. That suggests that they had good luck. They finished the season 3-6 and 1-4 and Chad Henne looks absolutely terrible in the preseason. Matt Moore wouldn’t be much better. There’s no way in hell this team gets 8 wins.

Kansas City under 7 ½ wins -105

Including playoffs, the Chiefs were 2-5 in games against .500 or better teams last year, with those 2 wins coming against the early season Chargers in a game in which Matt Cassel threw 68 yards, and the Jaguars and their 3rd string quarterback. They play 10 such games this year. They won 10 games last year. I’d very surprised if they won 8 or more this season.

New Orleans over 10 wins -130

They won 11 games last year in a down year. They’re healthier this season, especially Drew Brees who played all last season with a bad knee. They fixed their defensive line in the offseason, as well as their running game. I project a bounce back year for them and 11 wins to be their floor.

Chris Long over 7 ½ sacks -115 (9/2)

Long had 8.5 sacks last year, but easily could have had more as he had 13 quarterback hits and 57 quarterback pressures. He should easily have 7.5 sacks this season as the former #2 overall pick enters his 4^th year.

Tim Hightower over 700 yards -115 (9/2)

Hightower will be the lead back in Washington. Mike Shanahan has ridden countless random running backs to over 700 yards in his career as a head coach. Hightower looks next in line.

 

2 unit bets

Houston over 8 ½ wins -130

Houston is the offseason most improved team. They get Connor Barwin and DeMeco Ryans back from injury, JJ Watt, Brooks Reed, and Brandon Harris through the draft, and Johnathan Joseph and Danieal Manning through free agency. Kareem Jackson will also be better in his 2nd year and they added a good defensive coordinator in Wade Phillips, who will implement a 3-4 defense that is Peyton Manning’s weakness. They finally have at least a passable defense to go with a very strong and balanced offense. I have them at 12 wins and I would be very, very surprised if they had 8 or fewer again.

Green Bay over 11 ½ wins +115

Barring injury, I can’t see any way this team wins 11 or fewer games. They are one of the two most complete teams in the league. I like getting the +115 as well.

New England over 11 ½ wins -115

Barring injury, I can’t see any way this team wins 11 or fewer games. Along with Green Bay, this is one of the two most complete teams in the league.

Tony Romo over 25 ½ touchdowns -120 (9/2)

Since 2007, Romo has thrown for 26+ touchdowns in every season except last year when he got hurt early. He was on pace for 31 touchdowns when he went down and in Kitna’s last 6 and a half games with Jason Garrett, he was on pace for 30 touchdowns.

Marcedes Lewis under 7 touchdowns -115 (9/2)

1, 2, 2, 2, 10. Those are Marcedes Lewis’ career touchdown numbers. See an outlier? Lewis got paid this offseason and could easily revert to his pre-contract year self. Plus, Jacksonville’s offense figures to suck so 7 touchdowns looks out of reach.

Matt Cassel under 22 touchdowns -115 (9/2)

With a much tougher schedule this season, I doubt Cassel throws of more than 22 touchdowns. In 7 games against teams with 8 or more wins last year, Cassel threw 5 touchdowns. He plays 10 such games this season and threw for 16 touchdowns in 2009, the last time they had a reasonably hard schedule.

Dwayne Bowe under 1050 yards -115 (9/2)

In 5 games against teams with 9 or more wins in 2010, Bowe caught 4 passes for 49 yards. They play 8 teams like that this year and the Chiefs added Steve Breaston and Jonathan Baldwin to steal targets from him this season.

Jimmy Graham over 600 yards -120 (9/2)

In the 2^nd half of last season, Graham had 304 receiving yards, on pace for 608 over 16 games. Now he’s the starter and Drew Brees has looked his way plenty of times this preseason.

Mike Sims-Walker over 650 yards -115 (9/2)

MSW had 562 yards on a bad Jacksonville offense as the #2 last year. He’ll be the #1 in St. Louis, a much better offense. Barring injury, he should surpass 650 yards.

1 unit bets

Dallas over 9 wins even

Dallas finished the season 5-3 last year and that was with their backup quarterback. They play a last place schedule this season and don’t have to face the Giants in the first half of the season, which seems to be the only time they’re a dangerous team. I like them to win 10 or 11 games and because this is an even line, this bet essentially says you’re bet that they don’t win less than 9 games. If they win exactly 9, the bet is an even push. I think that’s worst case scenario for this team this year.

New England to win AFC +300

They’re my clear pick in the AFC. San Diego can’t win in the playoffs. The Jets are weaker. The Colts are older. The Ravens are 2nd tier. The Steelers should expect a letdown season. The Texans aren’t there yet. The Patriots are probably the most complete team in the league. I take 3-1 odds that they win the conference.

New England to win Super Bowl +650

Every year it’s pretty much mandatory for me to bet on the Super Bowl before the season. I have New England winning the whole thing at 13-2 odds as I look to make it two in a row after picking Green Bay +1200 last season.

Detroit over 7.5 wins -180 (August 29th) 

They had the point differential of an 8-8 team last season. They get Matt Stafford, who looks like a franchise QB, back and they add Nick Fairley, Stephen Tulloch, Eric Wright, and Justin Durant to their defense. This would be a 2 unit, but that -180 is ugly. 

Cincinnati under 5 ½ wins -125

Defensively, they won’t be able to create a consistent pass rush opposite Carlos Dunlap and they’ll miss Johnathan Joseph. On offense, they have a rookie 2nd round quarterback, a new offensive coordinator, and little to no experience in the receiving corps. They also don’t run well. I’d be surprised if they won more than 5 games.

Houston to win AFC South +180

I outlined why I liked Houston earlier and I like getting +180 for them to win the division, but I’m not confident enough to put more than a unit on it.

Steve Johnson over 900 yards -115 (9/2)

Steve Johnson had 1075 yards last season even though Ryan Fitzpatrick missed 3 games and even though Johnson didn’t really break out until a few weeks into the season.

Ndamukong Suh to be fined -150 (9/2)

The man is a human wrecking ball. He’ll be fined once this season.

Mario Manningham over 900 yards -115 (9/2)

Manningham had 944 yards last season. Kevin Boss and Steve Smith are gone.

Santonio Holmes over 925 yards -115 (9/2)

In 11 games, Holmes had 729 yards, good for 1060 yards over 16 games. Braylon Edwards and Jerricho Cotchery are gone and replaced with inferior talent so Holmes will be targeted often.

Austin Collie over 775 yards -115 (9/2)

In 8 full games last year, Collie had 650 yards. Unless he misses as much time as he did last year, he should surpass 775 yards.

 Nate Burleson over 650 yards -120 (9/2)

Burleson had 625 yards last year in 13 games. Matt Stafford is back and has locked his way often.

Sam Bradford over 3800 yards -115 (9/2)

Kyle Orton threw for 3653 yards in 13 games under Josh McDaniels in 2010. In 16 games under McDaniels in 2009, he had 3803 yards. Josh McDaniels is now Sam Bradford’s offensive coordinator and Bradford is way more talented than Orton is. Before McDaniels, Orton threw for 2972 yards in 15 games. Bradford had 3512 yards last season with terrible talent at receiver.

1/2 unit bets

Atlanta over 10 ½ wins +135

They have a tough schedule, but they’re probably an 11+ win team. I like their team a lot and I like getting +135 here.

Carolina under 4 ½ wins +105

Carolina was 2-14 last season and now has the toughest schedule in the league. I know they got better in the offseason, but they have a brutal schedule. I say 4 wins is probably their ceiling.

Oakland under 6 ½ wins +110

Nnamdi Asomugha is gone. Zach Miller is gone. Robert Gallery is gone. Michael Huff, Stanford Routt, Kamerion Wimbley, and Richard Seymour could all regress after getting giant offseason deals. They also have a new head coach. I say it’s back to the days of 11+ losses for them.

Pittsburgh under 10 ½ wins even

I have them disappointing this season and winning 9 games, ala 2009 for them. However, I’m not confident enough in that to bet big against them. They’re probably going under 10 ½ wins here.

Pittsburgh to miss playoffs +175 (August 29th)

I have a feeling Pittsburgh struggles this year. That’s why this is only a small bet.

Detroit to make playoffs +230 (August 29th)

After Detroit’s 3rd playoff win, I’m putting them in the playoffs. The NFC is crowded so I’m not putting big money on this or anything. 

St. Louis over 7 ½ wins even

They won 7 games last season. They’re a year more mature now. They’re healthier in the receiving corps. They added three players in Harvey Dahl, Robert Quinn, and Justin Bannan who should be key contributors for them. I say 8 wins, but their schedule is very tough, so I’m not that confident in that.

Atlanta to win NFC +750

The NFC is not as clear to me as the AFC, but I have Atlanta coming out of it. I like 15-2 odds.

Tony Romo to lead NFL in passing yards +1000 (August 29th)

I have Romo leading the NFL in passing yards and though I’m not 100% sure on that, I like getting 10-1 odds. 

Joey Porter under 6.5 sacks -130 (9/2)

Porter had 5 sacks last season. He’s 34 and could be benched for O’Brien Schofield or Sam Acho this season.

Ray Rice over 1200 yards -115 (9/2)

In 2 years as a starter, Rice has never had fewer than 1200 yards. Willis McGahee is gone and Rice figures to get a ton of carries. They’ve added Vonta Leach and improved the offensive line run blocking wise.

Percy Harvin over 825 yards -115 (9/2)

With Brett Favre, Tarvaris Jackson, and Joe Webb last season, Harvin had 868 yards. McNabb is an upgrade at quarterback. Harvin’s in his 3^rd year and Sidney Rice is gone.

Anquan Boldin under 900 yards -115 (9/2)

Boldin had 353 yards in his last 10 games last year and Joe Flacco already looks more comfortable throwing to Lee Evans than to him.