Updated 4/4/12

QB RB FB WR TE OT G C DE RLB DT NT 3-4 DE OLB MLB CB S K P

Scoring System

100 Once in a decade prospect 
95-99 Elite talent 
90-95 Solid top 10 pick 
85-90 Solid first round pick 
80-85 Late 1st-early 2nd 
75-80 Solid 2nd round pick 
70-75 Solid 3rd round pick 
65-70 3rd-4th round pick 
60-65 4th-5th round pick 
55-60 5th round pick 
50-55 6th round pick 
45-50 7th round pick 
40-45 Undrafted, invite to training camp 
<40 No NFL Future

 

1. Coby Fleener (Stanford) 81

 

2. Dwayne Allen (Clemson) 76

3. Orson Charles (Georgia) 73

4. Ladarius Green (Louisiana-Lafayette) 70

5. Evan Rodriguez (Temple) 63

6. George Bryan (NC State) 58

7. Michael Egnew (Missouri) 57

8. Brandon Barden (Vanderbilt) 56

9. Taylor Thompson (SMU) 55

10. David Paulson (Oregon) 54

11. Kevin Koger (Michigan) 53

12. James Hanna (Oklahoma) 48

 

 

 

Wide Receiver

Maryland

6-1 204

Draft board overall prospect rank: #90

Draft board overall wide receiver rank: #6

Overall rating: 69 (late 3rd)

40 time: 4.37

3/29/11: Torrey Smith could legitimately go in the first round. He’s got great speed and is a dynamic return man and teams are always looking for the next DeSean Jackson or Mike Wallace, or even the next Jacoby Ford or Emmanuel Sanders, young speedsters who shined in their rookie years in 2010. Torrey Smith should not be lumped in with that group. I think he’s one of the more overrated players in this draft class.

People like to cite his strong production, but let’s take a closer look. He caught 67 passes for 1055 yards and 12 touchdowns this year, but only had 4 games of 70+ yards. 2 of those games were against joke opponents, Florida International, and NC State. The other two were against Virginia and West Virginia, but remember he only caught 3 balls against West Virginia. He had 149 yards, but he’s really boom or bust in terms of production.

2 catches for 10 yards against East Carolina in the bowl game, 1 catch for 6 yards against Navy, 3 catches for 41 yards against Morgan State, 2 catches for 50 yards against Duke, these are bad performances against bad teams. First rounders don’t do that. In 2009, he surpassed 70 yards 5 times, James Madison, Middle Tennessee, Rutgers, and Florida State (71 yards). 1 catch for 28 yards against Carolina, 2 catches for 13 yards against Duke. First rounders don’t do that.

He catches with his body and, no surprise, he has tiny hands. Doesn’t matter how fast downfield you run if you can’t catch the ball. Just ask another former Maryland Terrapin, Darrius Heyward Bey. A lot of people will say, well he was drafted by the Raiders, of course he was going to bust. Yes, the Raiders reached for him at 7, but if they didn’t, he could have easily gone in the bottom of the 1^st round, just like Smith is being projected.

Smith is a similar prospect, a bigger receiver, fast, but inconsistent production, lack of dominance against bad teams, and bad, and in Smith’s case small, hands are huge drawbacks. Smith is a better kick return and a better runner out of the backfield, but I would be very surprised if he became anything at receiver. He’s not a great route runner. He’s skinny and doesn’t run block or go over the middle well.

NFL Comparison: Troy Williamson

 

 

 

12. QB Christian Ponder D

I’m not going to give this one an F because they’re at least trying to add a quarterback. But come on, Christian Ponder #12? Really? Ponder has major trouble with anything more than 15 yards downfield and he doesn’t have the upside of a Jake Locker or a Blaine Gabbert so this one is a borderline failure.

43. TE Kyle Rudolph B+

I’m not going to argue that tight end was their biggest non-quarterback need, but Visanthe Shiancoe is a marginal player and going into a contract year. Plus, the Vikings want to run more two tight end sets. Rudolph was also one of the best available.

106. DT Christian Ballard A

Ballard slips because of his positive drug test, but he’s a great value at this point in the 4^th round. I’m not making a huge deal about his positive drug test because he is a non-quarterback and it was just weed. Ballard is a great value and fills a huge hole.

139. CB Brandon Burton A

Another great value getting Burton, a borderline 2^nd rounder in my book, in the 5^th. He also filled a need. Chris Cook struggled as a rookie. Antoine Winfield will be 34 this offseason. Cedric Griffin can’t stay healthy. Burton could wind up a starter for this team in time.

168. OT DeMarcus Love A

I love Love’s upside here in the 6^th round. He’s raw, but he has left tackle upside and as a 6^th rounder, that’s a great value, especially for a team that needs it. I don’t know how much longer Bryant McKinnie can stay on the left side and on the right side, where Bryant McKinnie could later play, Phil Loadholt is liability and should be moved inside to guard where there’s a giant hole right now. If Love pans out, they can upgrade 3 offensive line spots at once and just ask Brett Favre how badly this line needs to be upgraded. Excellent pick.

170. S Mistral Raymond C+

There were better safeties available as I had Raymond just outside my top 300, but there’s no denying that incumbent starter Madieu Williams is terrible in coverage and needs to be replaced ASAP.

172. C Brandon Fusco A

Another offensive line upgrade. Fusco is a very good value here in the 6^th round and can take over for center John Sullivan sometime during year 1. I always say you can find good guard and center prospects in the mid rounds. Fusco is one of them. He can also play both guard spots if that’s where they decide his future is.

200. OLB Ross Homan A

Ben Leber is marginal and a free agent. Homan is a 4^th or 5^th round value and could end up being a starter for this team long term. Another excellent value.

215. DE D’Aundre Reed C+

Defensive end was a need with Ray Edwards having one foot out the door and Everson Griffen busy getting arrested, but I think there were better ones available. I didn’t have Reed, a rotational end at Arizona behind Brooks Reed and Ricky Elmore, in my top 300.

236. WR Stephen Burton A

Sidney Rice could be a free agent depending on the new CBA rules and given Minnesota’s problems at quarterback, no one would blame him for leaving. Burton helps give them depth behind Percy Harvin and Bernard Berrian and is a great value in the 7^th round.

Overall:

I think taking Christian Ponder at 12 might have been the biggest reach of the whole first round (along with James Carpenter at 25), but unlike Seattle, at least they reached for a quarterback and I loved almost every other pick they made. In Kyle Rudolph, they’re getting a future starter at tight end. In Ballard and Burton I think they’re getting future key depth players, if not starters at defensive tackle and cornerback. In DeMarcus Love, they’re getting a guy with the upside to be their franchise left tackle. In Brandon Fusco, I think they’re getting a future starter at center. In Stephen Burton, I think they’re getting a needed depth receiver with the upside to be a starter. That’s not a bad haul at all. They didn’t fill all of their needs, but this team has so many that doing so would have been impossible. They did fill a need with every single selection and they had very few picks that were reaches by my board. They also had a few that were flat out steals. That first round pick sours this draft for me, but I’m still giving it a very high grade and who knows, if Ponder pans out, we could look back at Minnesota as the big winners of the 2011 NFL Draft in a few years.

Grade: B+

 

 

11/5/11 12:21 PM ET (ESPN 3 Replay)

Vanderbilt at Florida

MLB Chris Marve (Vanderbilt) #13

A mid rounder at linebacker, the 6-0 240 Marve has 61 tackles, 6.5 for loss, 1 sack, 1 pick, and 2 pass deflections as the leader for an underrated Vandy defense. He’s probably a day 2 pick and might have been one had he declared last year, when a lot of people thought he would.

TE Brandon Barden (Vanderbilt) #6

He’s not having the best senior season with 6 catches for 78 yards, but Vanderbilt’s quarterback play hasn’t been good and he did have 34 catches for 425 yards and 3 scores last year. He’s been a contributor in the passing game since his freshman year and he’s an underrated blocker at 6-5 245.

11/5/11 12:30 PM ET

North Carolina at NC State (ESPN 3 Replay)

OLB Zach Brown (North Carolina) #47

Maybe the best linebacker in the country, Brown has at least 2 or 3 plays every game that make you say WOW. I’ve watched 2 of his games and even though I haven’t spotlighted him in either, I’ve definitely taken notice of the amount of impact plays he makes. On the season he has 62 tackles, 9.5 for a loss, 5.5 sacks, 2 picks, and 4 pass deflections. He’s a little small at 6-2 230, but he makes up for that with legit 4.4 speed, excellent coverage abilities, and he plays bigger than his size. Against Clemson, he did a good job covering Dwayne Allen, arguably the top tight end prospect in the country.

DT JR Sweezy (NC State) #52

A bit undersized at 6-5 290, but Sweezy would be a good fit as a 3-4 defensive end. Last season, he had 50 tackles, 11.5 for loss, and 5.5 sacks. He missed a good chunk of time with injury this season, but he’s working his way back into the mid rounds with 8 tackles, 2 for loss, and 2 sacks and 4 games this season.

11/12/11 12 PM ET

Nebraska at Penn State

DT Devon Still (Penn State) #71

Quickly rising up in this weak defensive tackle class, Still has 15.5 tackles for loss and 4 sacks and while holding up well against the run at 6-5 310. He fits as a 4-3 defensive tackle and a 3-4 defensive end and could end up going in the top 15 or top 20 when all is said and done in this weak defensive tackle class. He could be the first defensive tackle class off the board over the likes over Jerel Worthy and Brandon Thompson.

OLB Lavonte David (Nebraska) #4

Undersized at 6-1 225, but one of the fastest linebackers in college football, David has 88 tackles, 6.5 for loss, 2 sacks, and 2 picks on the season. He projects as a 4-3 outside linebacker in a cover 2 scheme and could potentially move to safety because of his size and ability in coverage. He projects as a late day 2 prospect. He’s a 2 year starter who had 153 tackles and 6 sacks last year.

11/12/11 3:30 PM ET

Miami at Florida State

OLB Nigel Bradham (Florida State) #13

Out of the speedy linebacker factory that is Florida State, the 6-1 240 pound Nigel Bradham has 52 tackles, 7 for loss, 2 sacks, 2 pass deflections, and a pick in 9 games this season. He’s a 3 year starter and a very fundamental sound player who looks like a mid rounder.

OT Zebrie Saunders (Florida State) #77

Saunders, a mid round prospect at right tackle coming into the season, is seeing his stock soar of late. When potential first round pick Andrew Datko went down for the season, Saunders moved over to left tackle and has caught the eye of professional scouts. He could end up going as early as round 2 when all is said and done because of the value and rarity of good left tackles.

 

11/12/11 7:30 PM ET

Maryland at Notre Dame

WR Michael Floyd (Notre Dame) #3

He’ll have to answer for some off the field stuff, but there’s no denying his on the field abilities. In 8 games, he’s caught 63 passes for 788 yards and 5 touchdowns. Last year, he had 79 catches for 1028 yards and 12 touchdowns despite an inconsistent situation at quarterback. Someone is going to take a chance on this athletic 6-3 receiver in the first round.

S Harrison Smith (Notre Dame) #22

A big thumping strong safety, the 6-2 220 Smith has 69 tackles in 9 games this year after 91 tackles last year. He also picked off 7 passes last year, though he has yet to pick one off this year, and broke up 7 passes last year. He has 8 passes broken up this year. In a weak safety class, Smith could be one of the first off the board. Mel Kiper loves him.

11/12/11 10:30 PM ET

Arizona State at Washington State

MLB Vontaze Burflct (Arizona State) #7

He gets a bad rep for being a dirty player, and while he will draw more flags than most players, it’s really just because his motor is non-stop. Plenty of people close to him will vouch that this is not a bad kid, but in fact a high character kid who loves football. Burflict could be the first linebacker off the board this year and is prematurely drawing comparisons to guys like Ray Lewis, Bart Scott, and Rolando McClain. It might not show so much on the stat sheet, but this kid has all the abilities and a world of upside. He has 51 tackles, 7 for loss, 5 sacks, 3 pass breakups, and a pick on the year. He’s a powerful hitter who also can do all of the finesse things as well.

C Garth Gerhart (Arizona State) #52

Brother of former Heisman finalist and current Minnesota Viking, Garth Gerhart could be a mid round pick as a center. He’s one of the more underrated players in the Pac 12 and while he might not be the most athletic player, he’s a fierce, fundamentally sound center at 6-0 300 pounds.

ESPN 3 Replays 

11/12/11 12:00 PM ET

Michigan State at Iowa

OT Riley Reiff (Iowa) #77

The consensus #3 offensive tackle in this class, Reiff has excellent athleticism at 6-6 300 with a 40 time in the 4.8s or 4.9s. He needs to get bigger, but that will come with age. He’s having a fantastic season and looks like a top 15 pick, though Michigan State’s fierce defensive line represents one of the toughest test’s of his career.

G Joel Foreman (Michigan State) #67

He’s played both guard positions and center, Foreman is the veteran experienced one of Michigan State’s line. He’s a borderline draftable prospect.

11/12/11 6 PM ET

Tennessee at Arkansas

DE Malik Jackson (Tennessee) #97

A transfer from USC, Jackson has all the athleticism in the world at 6-5 270 with great speed and burst and very long arms. He’s playing out of position at defensive tackle at Tennessee, but he projects as a mid round pick as a defensive end. He’s really catching on midway through the season and his stock is rising as he is contributing both against the run and as a pass rusher. He has 42 tackles, 6.5 for loss, and 2 sacks on the season.

MLB Jerry Franklin (Arkansas) #34

A high character kid and a 4 year starter, Franklin has 337 tackles in his career. This year, he has 73 tackles, 9.5 for a loss, 3 pass deflections, and 0.5 sacks. He had 6.5 sacks last year and plays both inside and outside for Arkansas. He’s best as a middle linebacker at the next level in either a 3-4 or a 4-3 at 6-1 250.

 

 

RB Tashard Choice- Dallas

Percent owned (ESPN): 17.8%

In the 3 games since Marion Barber went down, Choice rushed for 100 yards and a score on 19 carries against Indianapolis, 16 yards on 7 carries against Philadelphia, and 53 yards and a score on 15 carries against Washington. He can be a fantasy factor against bad defenses, but not against good ones. Luckily he faces Arizona’s terrible run defense next week in what should be the fantasy championship for most.

WR Davone Bess- Miami

Percent owned (ESPN): 25.0%

Bess continues to be a PPR beast with 71 catches for 751 yards and 3 scores on the season. He gets Detroit next week. In Chad Henne’s 13 starts, Bess has averaged 5.4 catches and 57.1 yards per game. That’s roughly 11.1 fantasy points in PPR, not too bad, especially if he were to score. Bess is also at least a depth receiver in normal leagues.

WR Danny Amendola- St. Louis

Percent owned (ESPN): 25.6%

Amendola is another underrated PPR beast with 75 catches for 627 yards and 3 scores on the season. Like Bess, he’s at least a depth receiver in normal leagues. He faces San Francisco next week.

WR Mike Thomas- Jacksonville

Percent owned (ESPN): 21.2%

Thomas has caught 59 balls for 712 yards and 3 scores this year making him at worst a depth receiver. He faces Washington next week.

WR Anthony Armstrong- Washington

Percent owned (ESPN): 3.2%

Armstrong has 36 catches for 668 yards and 2 scores in 11 starts this season and had good chemistry with Rex Grossman catching 5 balls for a career high 100 yards last week. He faces Jacksonville’s terrible secondary this week.

QB Rex Grossman- Washington

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.4%

I’m not ready to crown him the next John Elway or even the next Jake Plummer, though the former 1^st round pick bust did look like it in his first start against the Cowboys’ terrible secondary. Luckily, he gets another easy test this week against Jacksonville who has the league’s worst pass defense in terms of YPA allowed.

 

QB Tim Tebow- Denver

Percent owned (ESPN): 4.0%

Tebow must have been a very good boy this year because for Christmas he gets to face the Texans’ horrible defense. Tebow is a dual threat and the Texans can’t stop either of those threats and could have a good game passing in addition to running if the Broncos remember to call passing plays this week.

RB Toby Gerhart- Minnesota

Percent owned (ESPN): 8.6%

Gerhart would be the feature back this week again if Adrian Peterson were to miss and with the Vikings out of it there’s no need for the Vikings to rush AP back. If AP were to return, it would be in a limited capacity meaning Gerhart would likely get double digit carries, though obviously he has more value if he starts.

RB Lance Ball- Denver

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.1%

If Knowshon Moreno were unable to go this week, Ball would get the start again with a few carries vultured occasionally by Correll Buckhalter. Hall only rushed for 20 yards on 15 carries last week, but gets an easier matchup this week against the Texans and any feature back is worth owned. Moreno’s status is, at best, very questionable for this week’s game against the Texans.

 

Last week overall: 9-5

Last week ATS: 8-6 (+$680/+19%)

Overall picks: 37-25 (.597)

ATS Picks: 29-30-3 (-$250/-1%)

Lock picks: 3-1

Upset picks: 5-3

Sports Betting FAQ 

Jacksonville Jaguars 28 Buffalo Bills 31 Upset Pick

Spread: -1 1/2 Jacksonville

Pick against spread: Buffalo (2 units) -220

The Jacksonville Jaguars just played their hearts out to win a miracle game against their hated rival Colts. However, the Jaguars don’t always play to their potential. In fact, more often than not, they don’t. I doubt they will this team, after doing so last week, especially against an 0-4 Buffalo team. Ryan Fitzpatrick has proven can he move the ball on bad defenses and the jaguars defense may be even worse than the Patriots. They can score a lot of points in this game. I just doubt the Jaguars, despite having MJD to destroy the Bills weak front 7, will play well enough to match the Bills’ offensive output this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 Cincinnati Bengals 17 Upset Pick

Spread: -7 Cincinnati

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay (3 units) +300

Cincinnati is very overrated still. They just lost to the Bills, sit at 2-2, and are 7 point favorites against a 2-1 team coming off its bye. Don’t pay attention to how much Josh Freeman and this offense struggled against the Steelers. Matt Ryan did the same week 1 and he’s 3-0 since. Josh Freeman is still a very competent quarterback, better than the overrated Carson Palmer. Palmer can have a decent game against the Buccaneers weak defense, but if they couldn’t score big amounts of points against the Browns, they won’t be able to against the Buccaneers this week either. This simply is not a team that can score a lot of points. They didn’t last year, for the most part, and they haven’t this year at all. I expect Josh Freeman to lead a last second drive over the Bengals defense to win this hard fought matchup.

Atlanta Falcons 31 Cleveland Browns 16 lock pick

Spread: -3 Atlanta

Pick against the spread: Atlanta (4 units) +400

The Browns are coming off a win and get their starting quarterback back from injury, but I don’t see why they are only given 3 points in this one, especially considering that win was in close fashion against the lowly Bengals and that starting quarterback, Jake Delhomme, should cause more harm than good to this team. Say what you want about Seneca Wallace. He didn’t lose them any games. Delhomme loses games all the time. The Falcons lead the league in interceptions in 8. Delhomme should throw at least 2, probably 3 picks this week, setting up good field position for the Falcons offense against the Browns mediocre defenses all day.

St. Louis Rams 23 Detroit Lions 13 Upset Pick

Spread: -3 Detroit

Pick against spread: St. Louis (3 units) -330

This is probably the only time you’ll see a division leading team be given 3 points against a winless team. The Lions certainly aren’t playing bad, especially for a team that’s missing it’s starting quarterback, they’re just losing, and in close fashion. I expect them to do the same this week, losing in a way that’s a lot closer than the score suggests. However, the Rams are the better team. They have the better quarterback, the better offensive line, the better running game, and the better defense. The Rams defense has been beating up on bad offenses with bad offensive lines all year. The Lions, with Shaun Hill, are certainly not a good offensive team and that line is miserable. The Lions should be able to create pressure on Sam Bradford, something he’s never faced before in the NFL, which is why I think this one will be close, but I like the Rams to win this one because they are overall a more talented team.

Kansas City Chiefs 17 Indianapolis Colts 31

Spread: -7 1/2 Kansas City

Pick against spread: Indianapolis (2 units) +200

It is weird seeing the Colts 2-2 facing the 3-0 Chiefs. That just doesn’t seem right. However, the Chiefs are not coming out of this one undefeated. The Chiefs have yet to face a quarterback like Peyton Manning, or anyone even close. They faced Philip Rivers week 1, and only won because they got a long run, an interception, and a punt return touchdown. Cassel actually only passed for 68 yards that game so it’s not like he really matched Philip Rivers, who played decently in early season form. Peyton Manning is a completely different animal. There’s no way that Matt Cassel can match what he will do. It’ll take a true miracle (something along the lines what the Patriots special teams did against the Dolphins week 4) for the Chiefs to score enough points to match the Colts. They do have a strong running game, which helps against a weak Indianapolis run defense, but I don’t think they’ll even be using their best runner, Jamaal Charles, as much as necessary.

Green Bay Packers 28 Washington Redskins 17

Spread: -3 Green Bay

Pick against spread: Green Bay (3 units) -330

The Packers are a sloppy 3-1, barely beating Philly and Detroit, and losing, on the strength of 18 penalties, to the Bears on Monday Night Football. However, they still have an explosive passing game. Their running game is bad, but this is not a running league anymore and the Redskins pass defense is one of the worst in the league. Aaron Rodgers should have a huge game. Considering how good the Packers ground defense is, they’ll force Donovan McNabb to play catch up and match, pretty much by himself and based off of his 8-19 last week, I don’t think that’s something he can do for this team.

Chicago Bears 19 Carolina Panthers 13

Spread: -3 Chicago

Pick against spread: Chicago (2 units) +200

The Bears will miss Jay Cutler this week, with a concussion, and Todd Collins will make his first start since 2007, when he led the Redskins on an unbelievable playoff run in memory of Sean Taylor’s passing. Even without Cutler, this team can still score points this week. The Panthers don’t have anything that resembles a pass rush. They have 4 sacks all year, 2 by their defensive line. Teams with defensive lines that can create pressure give Mike Martz led offenses a hard time. However, teams that blitz give Jay Cutler a hard time. Todd Collins is not Jay Cutler. He doesn’t have Cutler’s down field ability, but he is a veteran and should be able to get the ball out to the open man against a blitz. If the Panthers don’t blitz, well Collins should have plenty on time in the pocket and time in the pocket is what makes this offense go. We all saw what Cutler did with time against the Cowboys. Collins, again, doesn’t have Cutler’s arm, but he can still make some things happen downfield if given time. The Bears are also going to be playing harder this week. The Bears lost their quarterback and teams that lose their quarterback often play 110% in the first game without him. The Panthers are 0-4, coming off a demoralizing loss, and now face a Bears team that was destroyed on Sunday Night Football and is missing their quarterback. The Panthers aren’t going to be able to match what an inspired Bears offensive unit can do against a weak defensive line. Jimmy Clausen is talented, but with Steve Smith down, he has absolutely no receivers to rely on. The Bears defensive line should be able to shut down the Panthers ground attack and force the pressure onto Clausen and his receivers. He won’t be able to match.

 

Denver Broncos 13 Baltimore Ravens 27

Spread: -7 Baltimore

Pick against spread: Baltimore (3 units) +300

Kyle Orton is what makes this Denver team go. However, the Ravens have the best pass defense in the league and have yet to give up more than 167 yards in a game. The Broncos offense is extremely one dimensional. One dimensional offenses, especially finesse type teams like the Broncos, don’t do well against the Ravens. It’s the exact same reason I picked the Broncos to lose to the Ravens when they were 6-0 last year. The logic remains the same. It helped me once, so I’m sticking with it. 

New York Giants 24 Houston Texans 28

Spread: -3 Texans

Pick against spread: Houston (1 unit) -110

I’m not sure I believe in this Giants team. Their offense could only put up 17 points last week, despite the fact that their defense got 10 sacks. The defense isn’t going to get 10 sacks this week. The Texans are capable of protecting their quarterback. The Texans pass defense is not that great, so it will be up to Eli Manning to put points up on the board and finally have a strong game, but I’m not betting on him to, especially with Brian Cushing coming back to the Texans. I expect the Texans strong offense to score enough on the Giants defense to outscore the Giants discombobulated offensive bunch.

New Orleans Saints 24 Arizona Cardinals 21

Spread: -7 New Orleans

Pick against spread: Arizona (2 units) +200

The Cardinals are a completely different team at home than on the road. At home they are 2-0 (+5) and on the road they’re 0-2 (-65). I’m not going to pick them to go 3-0 at home and beat the Saints, but I’m not taking the Saints to cover. The Saints have been favored in each of their games this year and have yet to cover. There is a definite Super Bowl hangover with this team. They could exploide for 30+ and cover any given week, but they have yet to do that. Max Hall, the new quarterback for the Cardinals, can keep teams in games. He’s not Derek Anderson. I expect Hall to keep this one close and Brees to lead a late drive to win it, but to fail to cover once again.

Tennessee Titans 17 Dallas Cowboys 23

Spread: -7 Dallas

Pick against spread: Tennessee (1 unit) +100

This is a tough one. The Titans seem to be alternating, win, loss, win, loss, this year. However, the Cowboys are coming off a bye, which they could have used to regroup, and also an impressive victory on the road against the Texans. The outcome of this game is going to depend a lot on Chris Johnson. When he rushes for more than 100 yards, they win, 2-0. The Cowboys have a fairly capable ground defense and if they can shut him down the way the Steelers and Broncos did, they’re going to win this game. There’s no question about it. Vince Young would have to outthrow Tony Romo to win that game and that’s not something he can do. I like the Cowboys to win, but not to cover. That 7 point spread is a lot for a team that’s 1-2 against a team that has played some really good football at times this year.

San Diego Chargers 20 Oakland Raiders 24 Upset Pick

Spread: -6 1/2 Chargers

Pick against spread: Oakland (3 units) +300

The Raiders haven’t beaten the Chargers in their last 13 matchups. This is the week I think that changes. The Chargers are a completely different team on the road than at home, going 0-2 on the road against the Chiefs and Seahawks. If they can lose to lose two teams on the road, they can lose to the Raiders. The Chargers are in early season form still and we saw them almost lose to the Raiders last year when they were in early season form. LT has always destroyed the Raiders and that’s why they’ve been so dominant. LT isn’t in San Diego anymore. The Raiders are going to be playing their hearts out to beat a tough divisional rival that they haven’t had a lot of success against, the way the Texans and Jaguars did against the Colts and the way the Bills did against the Patriots, though the Bills did end up falling. The Raiders also have their best quarterback since that 13 game streak started. All things are lining up for the Raiders to shock the world and pull off the upset.

Philadelphia Eagles 21 San Francisco 49ers 28

Spread: -3 1/2 San Francisco

Pick against spread: San Francisco (2 units) -220

This is the 49ers last stand. Very few teams make the playoffs after starting 0-5, even in a division as bad as the NFC West. They are going to be playing their hearts out this week. They’re at home, a place they’ve only been once this year. In that game, they played their best overall football and almost beat the Saints. The Eagles have to travel across 3 time zones, something that teams have trouble doing in the NFL. The 49ers are also playing at home, on Sunday Night Football. Teams this year are 7-2 against the spread at home on either Monday Night or Sunday Night Football. Those two losses were both the Dolphins. I’ve got the 49ers winning, playing 110% at home in their last stand under the Sunday Night Football lights, against a team that’s traveling 3 time zones. However, I’m only putting 2 units, instead of 3. The spread is 3.5 and I could definitely see the 49ers winning by a field goal late.

Minnesota Vikings 17 New York Jets 20

Spread: -4 New York Jets

Pick against spread: Minnesota (1 unit)

This was the toughest pick for me. The Vikings are coming off a bye and just added Randy Moss to their team. Moss won’t do much against Darrelle Revis likely, but he will keep Revis off of Percy Harvin. Harvin, rested off of a bye, should have a big game this week. However, the Jets are playing really well right now beating all 3 AFC East opponents in consectutive weeks. Nothing impressive really about blowing out the Bills, but beating the Dolphins and Patriots are both impressive feats. The Jets are also finally at full strength. Darrelle Revis and Calvin Pace should both be back from injury this week and Santonio Holmes is back from his 4 game suspension. At the end of the day, I decided the Jets defense would be too much for Brett Favre on the road. Favre will probably be sacked and picked off quite a bit this week and that’ll lead to good field position for the Jets. However, I’m taking the Vikings against the spread. Never pick a favorite of more than 3 points in a game between teams you see as evenly matched, because there’s a good chance that game is going to be won by a field goal.

 

Power Rankings will be more detailed next week

The teams that are terrible 

32. Buffalo Bills 0-7

31. Carolina Panthers 1-6

30. Cleveland Browns 2-5

29. Dallas Cowboys 1-6

The teams that are not quite as terrible, but still pretty terrible 

28. San Francisco 49ers 2-6

27. Denver Broncos 2-6

26. Arizona Cardinals 3-4

25. Cincinnati Bengals 2-5

The team that should be a sleeper in 2011, but everyone will have them as their sleeper so much that they’ll actually become overrated

24. Detroit Lions 2-5

The teams that are in worse shape than their record would appear 

23. Jacksonville Jaguars 4-4

22. Chicago Bears 4-3

The teams that have surprised

21. Oakland Raiders 4-4

20. St. Louis Rams 4-4

The team that’s best in the NFC West, but only by default

19. Seattle Seahawks 4-3

The teams in massive chaos that could still make the playoffs because the NFC sucks 

18. Minnesota Vikings 2-5

17. Washington Redskins 4-4

 

The teams that are in the middle of the pack 

16. Miami Dolphins 4-3

15. Houston Texans 4-3

The teams that haven’t beaten anyone, but have amazing records 

14. Kansas City Chiefs 5-2

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-2

The team poised for a 2nd half run 

12. San Diego Chargers 3-5

The team that’s overrated, but will still make the playoffs because the NFC sucks 

11. Philadelphia Eagles 4-3

The team that just signed Randy Moss 

10. Tennessee Titans 5-3

The teams that can beat anyone on any given Sunday, but often don’t 

9. New York Giants 5-2

8. Baltimore Ravens 5-2

7. New Orleans Saints 5-3

6. Green Bay Packers 4-3

The teams that are great, but not elite 

5. New York Jets 5-2

4. Atlanta Falcons 5-2

The elite runner ups 

3. Indianapolis Colts 5-2

2. Pittsburgh Steelers 5-2

The favorite 

1. New England Patriots 6-1

 

 

48. G Stefen Wisniewski A

Wisniewski fits the range like a glove and fills a need for them at either guard or center, depending on what they decide to do with him. Nice pick.

81. CB DeMarcus Van Dyke A-

DeMarcus Van Dyke runs a 4.28 at 6-1 176. That makes him the 2^nd greatest cornerback of all time, 2^nd to Stanford Routt, at least in Al Davis’ mind.

No surprise Al Davis took a tall and fast cornerback. Surprisingly, I liked the pick. I thought Van Dyke was very underrated and with Nnamdi Asomugha gone, cornerbacks were definitely needed. It’s only a minor reach.

92. OT Joseph Barksdale A

Barksdale fills another hole for them on their offensive line and fits the draft range. Between Barksdale, Wisniewski, Bruce Campbell, and Jared Veldheer, they have 4 talented young offensive lineman who can play multiple positions. That will go a long way towards fixing this once miserable line.

113. CB Chimdi Chekwa A-

Chimdi Chekwa runs a 4.33 at 6-0 191. That makes him the 3^rd greatest cornerback of all time, 3^rd to Stanford Routt and DeMarcus Van Dyke.

Again, I’m not surprised the Raiders drafted a tall and fast cornerback, but again, I like the pick. They really needed depth at the position and this is only a minor reach by my board.

125. RB Taiwan Jones B-

Taiwan Jones runs a 4.29 at 6-0 194. That makes him the 2^nd greatest running back of all time, 2^nd to Darren McFadden.

The Raiders do need a backup for Darren McFadden with Michael Bush likely gone in pursuit of a starting job somewhere. However, I would have preferred a more complimentary power back, like Bush was. Jones and McFadden are too similar. Jones does fit the range, however.

148. WR Denarius Moore B

Denarius Moore runs a 4.37 at 6-0 194. That makes him the 2^nd greatest wide receiver of all time, 2^nd to Darrius Heyward Bey.

Moore was a bit of a reach, but he fills a need for them at receiver as they really lack dependable options there.

181. TE Richard Gordon C

Richard Gordon runs a 4.66 at 6-4 266. That makes him the greatest tight end of all time.

Gordon fills a need as a blocking tight end to compliment Zach Miller, but he wasn’t in my top 300 so this is a bit of a reach and I would have preferred to see them take a blocking tight end who can also catch. If Zach Miller signs elsewhere, they’re pretty screwed.

241. TE David Ausberry D

David Ausberry runs a 4.52 at 6-4 243. That makes him the 2^nd greatest tight end of all time, behind Richard Gordon.

Two tight ends weren’t needed and Ausberry, again, wasn’t in my top 300. I’m not even sure he’s a tight end. Some are saying fullback (not a need) or wide receiver (I doubt it). He’s probably just a special teamer if he can even make the roster.

Overall:

Anyone who says Al Davis doesn’t always draft fast players is just wrong. Discounting the two offensive lineman, every single player he drafted this year was fast. However, he didn’t draft badly. He filled needs on the offensive line and took two cornerbacks that were greatly needed and decently fit the range they were drafted in. Up until the final pick, they drafted for need with every pick and up until the final 2 picks, every pick they made fit the draft range decently. I wouldn’t say this is a flat A draft, especially since they gave up a future 2^nd rounder to New England, but this was a very good draft.

Grade: A-

 

By Packrphan 

Happy Dirty Birds Day to you, Packer fans! No, I’m not referring to the recent day on which you dropped turkey on the kitchen floor after carving, tossed it back on the plate, and then served it to your relatives. I’m talking about today’s game in Atlanta between our Green Bay Packers and the Falcons. 

The Falcons are coming into the game with a NFC-leading 8-2 record, with the Pack at 7-3. Atlanta is favored by 2 points.

The Birds fly high in their dome. They are 18-3 at home over the last three seasons. This team is not like the last two teams the Pack has faced. They are good and they won’t quit on their coach the way those teams did. Statistically (you can look elsewhere today for that info if you are a stat geek), the Packers and Falcons are fairly close in many areas. However, the Packers have an overall better defense, particularly in the secondary. That is an area that will need to execute well today, as they have been doing, for the Packers to come out on top. WR Roddy White leads the league in receptions, if memory serves, and is up there in reception yards as well, not surprisingly. Expect the Packers to likely have CB Tramon Williams on White most of the time, although they may shift Williams and Charles Woodson around as needed so that rookie safety Sam Shields isn’t stuck on an island against White.

The Falcons also have veteran TE Tony Gonzalez as a receiving threat and RB Michael Turner as the featured rusher. Gonzalez is still dangerous, despite perhaps losing a step, and Turner is quick and powerful and can move the chains and eat clock. The Packers’ defensive line has handled running backs all season long and I expect them to bottle up Turner today as well; he may get some yards, but as long as they don’t allow him to break long runs or get 5+ yards per carry, it will be OK. QB Matt Ryan is similar to the Packers’ own Aaron Rodgers: cerebral, strong arm, and generally won’t make mistakes.

So, if the Packers’ defense can continue to do what they have been doing, and special teams holds its own, it comes down to the offense executing its game plan. The Packers have more weapons in the receiving game and they are going against a 24th-ranked passing defense. So if the offensive line gives Rodgers time and he’s on his game, the Pack have the advantage. But expect a closer game than we’ve seen recently.

This is a game which will tell us a great deal about how good the Packers really are. As fans, we are all beginning to think they are very good. A win in Atlanta today will reinforce that perception. More importantly, though, it will also go a long way to helping determine homefield advantage in the playoffs. If the Pack plucks this one away from the Falcons, things are looking rosy.

I’m calling this one 27-24 Packers.

http://PackerFansUnited.com

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By Sean Geddes 

Tonight the Steelers take on the Carolina Panthers in the final preseason test for the Black and Gold this year. This is a make or break game for a lot of players on the roster bubble, and for more than a few fighting for a better spot on the depth chart. Let’s take a look at the most important things to watch as Tomlin and Company prepare to start the season that is now just over a week away.

Who To Keep A Closer Eye On:

Flozell Adams

Carolina may have lost their premier pass rusher this offseason in Julius Peppers, but they’ve still assembled a solid stable of young pass rushers that will put the newest Steeler to the test this week. Guys like Greg Hardy, Everette Brown, and Charles Johnson will test The Hotel’s ability to protect against the speed pass rush. If Adams is going to be the starter at right tackle, and by all accounts he will be, I would like to see better play out of the big man.

What Is The Key To Victory:

The Quarterback Depth

And this will be the key to victory weeks on through four as well. We need someone to show they want this job and are willing to play consistent ball. Leftwich has looked shaky but has made good decisions (he’s the only QB without an interception this preseason). Dixon has shown potential for success, but he hasn’t shown it against starters yet this year. Even Charlie Batch has made good throws in his brief time on the field. But someone has got to take this by the reigns; so far no one has been able to distinguish themselves from the group.

Where The Best Battles Are:

The Offensive Line

From the Department of Redundancy Department, I go right back to where I started. Flozell has already been mentioned, and Maurkice Pouncey will once again get the nod with the first team, his play has been something to get excited about so far, there is even more to watch from this group.

Tony Hills has shown more this preseason than perhaps all his time already spent in Pittsburgh combined. If he can prove to be an adequate back up with some potential for the future, he will prove to be worth the wait, and worth the fourth round pick we spent n him a few seasons ago.

Justin Hartwig may have lost his job as the starting center, but there is one more position that is up in the air on the line, right guard. Trai Essex has been serviceable, and Ramon Foster has shown promise, but to remain in the starting lineup (and maybe even remain on the team) Hartwig should be eyeing the spot up right next to his old one.

When We Need To Be More Successful:

When We Get Close

The redzone has been an area we have struggled for some time. Part of the blame can be put on the play calling of Bruce Arians, who has no fullback in his offense. Perhaps a few more runs in a heavy formation would help. Perhaps it’s just a matter right place right time right decision, but the bottom line is we need someone to take the ball and cross the plane with it. More touchdowns and less field goals in the redzone could be a key to more wins for a team that lost five games by four or fewer points following a year in which they won five games by the exact same margin (hint hint, look at our final records those years).

Why We Will Win:

Run Defense

Carolina’s offense features two stellar running backs in DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, which is well known. They also feature a fullback in their offense on a higher percentage of downs than any other team in football, and I think they’ve got a good one on the rise in Tony Fiametta. Behind those three there is also a talented back up in Mike Goodson who will try and gash our defense when in. When you combine that with a crew of young quarterbacks still learning the game at this level… if you can stop the run, you can beat the Panthers.

This Saturday, September 4^th is the day rosters go from 75 to 53 players. This is it, almost 33% of the players playing now will be off the team, looking for work, in a just a few days. This will be their last shot to prove to the coaches they deserve to be on the 53. I expect to see some hungry football from the Steelers tonight.

http://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/