Nose Tackle

Wade Phillips has always had success with smaller nose tackle, especially Jay Ratliff in Dallas, but guys like Shaun Cody and Earl Mitchell, barely 300 pounds, are small even for Phillips’ scheme. Neither of them are particularly talented either. Phillips could be looking for his Jay Ratliff this offseason.

Wide Receiver

Andre Johnson is a great wide receiver, but he turns 31 this offseason and has had a history of injury problems. With him out of the lineup this year, their lack of depth was exposed as neither Kevin Walter nor Jacoby Jones are very good. They’ll look for a receiver to start opposite Johnson and eventually take over as his long term replacement in 3-4+ years.

 

Safety

The Texans did an excellent job of fixing their defense this offseason, but they could still upgrade Glover Quin at safety. He wasn’t awful this season, but the former cornerback struggled against the run.

Guard

The Texans have a great offensive line, but Wade Smith is the weak point at left guard. Meanwhile, right guard Mike Brisiel is a free agent.

Center

Center Chris Myers is also a free agent. If he’s resigned, he could move to guard depending on what happens with Wade Smith and Mike Brisiel.

 

 

This is a low risk signing for the Colts as it’s only worth 1.2 million over 1 year. Harris is a former Pro-Bowl caliber player and has experience in a similar system to the Colts’ in Chicago. He’s had injury problems in recent years, but he’s only 28 so he’s far from washed up and if he can get healthy, he can be an impact player at a position of need for the Colts, defensive tackle.

Grade: A

 

 

Spotlight #1: USC DE Nick Perry

Spotlight #2: USC RB Marc Tyler 

1^st quarter

10:01: Josh Kaddu with a tackle for a loss on a pass in the flat.

9:04: Tyler catches a screen for 7. It’s worth noting he wasn’t on the field until this point. Curtis McNeal got the start for the 2^nd week in a row and it looks like he’ll be the lead back from here on out. That does hurt Tyler’s draft stock as he tries to get drafted.

7:18: Perry blows past his man, slaps the ball out of the quarterback’s hands, recovered by Oregon for a loss. This is as good as a sack, but won’t count as a sack, which would have given him 8.5 on the year.

6:37: Matt Barkley makes a definite NFL caliber throw deep to hit Marquis Lee basically on the fly for a 59 yard touchdown. The throw had to be at least 50+ yards on the fly, tight spiral, accurate, highlight reel throw.

1:56: Tyler with his first carry of the night, right up the middle to convert for a 1^st down on short.

1:10: Barkley with another one of those NFL caliber throws, a frozen rope to Robert Woods for 24. He put it in the perfect spot and threw it over a defender, hitting the receiver on the money.

2^nd quarter

13:04: Perry run at, not much happening, 2-3 yards.

8:56: Tyler with a run for a few through a hole.

6:55: Just a note, Oregon is running a lot of their plays away from Perry, especially on the ground. Also, the run/pass ratio right now is 17 runs to 7 passes. That’s why Perry isn’t having a huge impact.

6:34: Perry gets in on a tackle in space after a run up the middle, but not before Oregon converts 3^rd and 2.

4:37: Tyler gets a 3^rd down conversion on 3^rd and 3, right up the middle against a stacked box for 5 or 6 yards.

3:01: Tyler on 2^nd and goal, multiple guys get penetration into the backfield and bring him down for a loss.

1:42: Perry breaks through a double team, gets pressure.

1:18: Perry in on a tackle for a short gain. After two guys immobilize the ball carrier, Perry finishes him off.

0:23: LaMichael James looks to have reinjured his elbow. An injury red flag is the last thing his draft stock needs.

 

3^rd quarter

14:26: Perry in on a tackle for loss.

12:56: Barkley fumbles the snap, recovers it, but then makes a really ill-advised throw that almost got picked in the red zone. This was his first mistake of the night however. He’s at 15 of 20 for 181 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no picks tonight as USC leads #4 Oregon 21-7 and is threatening for more.

9:55: Barkley with another amazing throw, hitting Marqise Lee, who is having an awesome day, for 41 yards on the fly against double coverage. Lee has 4 catches for 146 yards on the night as a true freshman.

9:27: Marc Tyler on the goal line for a 3 yard touchdown run. He’s been impressive at getting tough yards, but he’s still only being used sparingly, with 5 carries for 13 yards and that touchdown. He’s also caught a 7 yard pass.

6:41: Tyler with a nice run for a few on 1^st down, 6 yards.

5:26: Tyler showing great explosion through the hole, good pad level, good power, and good explosion for 9 yards in between the tackles on 1^st down.

4:16: McNeal looks like he’s hurt. This could be Tyler’s shot.

1:50: Tyler between the tackles again for 7. McNeal is back in the game though.

0:28: Tyler converts 3^rd and 1 with a gain of 3 or 4 in between the tackles, but has it called back by an irrelevant illegal shift penalty on the outside.

4^th quarter

14:28: Perry can’t change directions quickly to keep up with the speedy back.

11:44: Tyler converts 2^nd and 1 with a few yards.

8:32: Barkley throws one high, receiver can’t bring it in, off his hands and picked. The receiver could have caught it and there was defensive holding on the play, but it will go down as an interception.

7:11: David Paulson with an awesome catch against double coverage, almost a touchdown.

3:36: Tyler with a nice run to convert 3^rd and 4 through the middle between the tackles, looks like 6-7 yards.

2:31: Tyler with a key fumble in the red zone in a 38-35 USC game. Tyler didn’t take the handoff properly and the handoff is fumbled. Oregon ball. Bad mistake.

1:50: Perry has been quiet for a bit, but not anymore. A huge, clutch sack for his 2^nd of the night.

1:28: Perry gets pressure, but the quarterback gets it out in time for a good gain on a screen.

0:00: Nick Perry was a rising prospect coming into this game and he showed way. Perry had 4 tackles, a sack, 2 tackles for loss, and a forced fumble that was essentially a 2^nd sack. Even more impressive, he was doing this against Oregon, who had only allowed 7 sacks to Darron Thomas coming in. They don’t have a particularly talented offensive line, but they move so quickly and get rid of the ball so quickly that pass rushers have had a tough time of getting to the quarterback.

Perry was winning his matchup consistently, matched up for almost the entirety of the game against Oregon’s left tackle. That type of thing won’t show up on the stat sheet because Oregon releases the ball so quickly, but it’s worth noting he was consistently winning his matchup with a quick first step, though Oregon doesn’t necessarily have the most talented offensive line. It’s also worth noting that Perry saw his fair share of double times

Oregon also ran a lot, running 47 times to 35 pass and they were consistently running plays away from Perry, though I’m not sure if that was intentional or not. Thomas also rolled out away from Perry quite a bit. Oregon did well on the ground, rushing for 209 total yards on 47 carries. Perry didn’t have a very big impact against the run. He wasn’t necessarily being blown off the line, but he had trouble with Oregon’s speed and explosiveness. This limited his tackle total and his overall impact against the run.

Perry now has 51 tackles, 13 tackles for loss, 8.5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, and 2 pass deflections in 11 games for USC. After a disappointing sophomore year, following a freshman year in which he had 9 sacks, Perry has picked things up as a junior and has become one of college football’s best pass rushers. At 6-3 250, he might be solely a 3-4 outside linebacker at the next level, but he has 4.5/4.6 speed, a great first speed, and he has become very productive this season. He also did a great job against Stanford’s Jonathan Martin, a projected top 15 pick at left tackle. Should he declare this year, he could go in the late 1^st round or maybe the early 2^nd round. If he comes back for his senior season and has a good senior year, he could go top 15.

As I said earlier, Oregon ran for 209 yards on 47 carries. Surprisingly, LaMichael James was not the biggest part of that. James didn’t have a bad day, but 78 yards on 20 carries is not a typical performance from him, especially since his longest carry of the night for 9 yards. He really just didn’t get going as USC played with great discipline. James has struggled against disciplined defenses before and if he can’t get space, he typically doesn’t have a very good game at all.

Also hurting James’ stock is that Kenjon Barner had 123 yards on 15 carries tonight. Barner, a 5-11 180 pound junior has had 766 yards and 10 touchdowns on 112 carries this season, which might cause some to wonder if LaMichael James is just the product of Oregon’s system. For me, there are too many concerns about how he will transition to the NFL (size, inability to stay healthy, inability to have good games against disciplined defenses, the product of a weird offense that wouldn’t work in the NFL) for me to have him above the 3^rd/4^th round. He could be a nice change of pace guy, but nothing more.

James’ counterpart at running back was Marc Tyler. Well, I don’t know if he was necessarily James’ counterpart. He didn’t start for the 2^nd straight game. After missing two games with injury, Tyler appears to have lost his starting job to Curtis McNeal, a speedier, smaller back at 5-7 180. After 7 carries last week, Tyler got 12 this week, as opposed to 19 for McNeal.

Tyler still ran well. 11 of his 12 carries were for positive yardage and his one tackle for loss was not really his fault. Oregon just got great penetration with multiple defenders on that play. He ran between the tackles very well, picking up gains of 3, 4, 5, 6, etc yards and converting 3^rd downs as well. He also got a touchdown on a goal line carry. He runs with great explosiveness and power and seems to be able to be productive without getting a bunch of consecutive carries. He doesn’t go in and out of rhythms, which is key since he’s not going to be a lead back at the next level. LaMichael James, on the other hand, is much more inconsistent.He’s got good size (5-11 230) and he doesn’t seem that slow either.

The injury concerns are there with Tyler, but he’s been productive in the past. Last year, he rushed for 913 yards and 9 touchdowns on 171 carries and this year he has 116 carries for 537 yards and 4 touchdowns. He also has 28 catches in the last 2 seasons. His stock is going to be hurt by his injury concerns and his loss of starting job and he could easily go undrafted, but I think he can be one of those backs that goes undrafted and then has an impact as an undrafted free agent. He looks like a capable short yardage back at the next level at least. I’d say he’s worth about a 5^th round pick.

Matt Barkley had a very impressive football game. He was 26 of 34 for 323 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 1 pick. It’s worth noting that that one pick went off his receiver’s hands and it should have been called pass interference on the defense. Barkley made at least a handful of jaw dropping deep throws and threw the ball well consistently overall. He’s really taken off in these last few guys and is putting some distance between himself as guys like Robert Griffin and Landry Jones as the #2 quarterback in this draft class.

He’s a 3 year starter in a pro style system and he’s gotten better every year. He’s completing 67.6% of his passes for an average of 7.7 per attempt and 31 touchdowns to 7 interceptions. He’s been consistent as well. In 11 starts, he has 8 multi touchdown games, 10 games with 0 or 1 interceptions, 9 games of 200+ yards, and 10 games of 60%+ completion percentage.

Now he has a good game in an upset win against Oregon to add to his resume, the same Oregon team that gave Andrew Luck some trouble last week. He doesn’t quite have Luck’s intangibles, pocket presence, speed, athleticism, and he has better weapons to work with an Luck, but if this were a normal year, Barkley would be the #1 pick. He goes #1 8-9 times out of 10, just not this year. 

 

Last week overall: 10-3

Last week ATS: 6-6-1 (+590/+16%)

Overall picks: 83-47 (.638)

ATS Picks: 66-59-5 (+$1270)

Lock picks: 6-3

Upset picks: 13-16

Sports Betting FAQ 

Atlanta Falcons 31 Baltimore Ravens 20

Spread: -1 Atlanta

Pick against spread: Atlanta 4 units

I love the Falcons in this spot, to win at home against an even spread. Not only has Matt Ryan only lost one regular season home game in his career, this game is a Thursday Night home game. He’ll not only feed off the energy of the home crowd, but off the energy of a national televised game. The Ravens, meanwhile, have to travel on a short week. I did some research and home teams are 23-10 on Thursday Night Football since 2006. Even more impressive, only two of those losses were by teams with winning records at the time, the 2007 Lions and the 2006 Seahawks. The 2007 Lions were in the midst of a 3 game losing streak at the time. I love Matt Ryan and the Falcons to win at home as a team with a winning record on Thursday Night Football.

New England Patriots 26 Pittsburgh Steelers 19 Upset Pick

Spread: -4.5 Pittsburgh

Pick against spread: New England 5 units

Tom Brady getting points is good. Tom Brady getting 4.5 points is better. Tom Brady getting 4.5 points coming off of a loss is amazing. Brady has lost back-to-back regular season games once since 2003. Tom Brady in his career off of a loss is 21-11 ATS and 14-7 ATS as an underdog. The Pats are 12-1 straight up of off a 10 point loss in the Brady/Belicheck era with that one loss by 1 point. I would pick the Pats to win outright here. However, the 4.5 points are even better. The Steelers have a history of letting teams come back in the 4^th quarter in recent games so I think the Patriots, at worst, could get a back door cover, but I have them winning. The Steelers are banged up right now and the Pats are pissed off.

Detroit Lions 31 Buffalo Bills 21 Upset Pick

Spread: -2.5 Buffalo

Pick against spread: Detroit 4 units

This is an interesting game. The Bills are 0-8, but favored by 3 because it appears Lions 3^rd string quarterback Drew Stanton will start with Matt Stafford out with another shoulder injury and Shaun Hill doubtful again with a broken arm. Drew Stanton is a terrible quarterback. Stanton is 55 for 104 for 611 yards, 2 scores, and 7 picks in his career. However, he was 19 for 34 for 222 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 pick against the Giants in relief of Hill week 6 and the Giants have a great defense. That’s obviously some sort of hope. The Lions have a great offensive supporting cast. Shaun Hill is by no means a good starting quarterback, but this team averaged 26.4 points per game in 5 starts by Hill. I think they can put up some points here and win against the 0-8 Bills and even if they don’t, I have 3 points breathing room. I just wouldn’t feel comfortable laying points with a winless team against a team with a positive point differential.

Update: Shaun Hill will start instead of Drew Stanton, yet the line remains at Bills -2.5. As I mentioned before, the Lions averaged 26.4 points per with Hill in the lineup and the Bills are terribly defensively so he should exceed that in a fairly high scoring affair all around.

Minnesota Vikings 26 Chicago Bears 16

Spread: -1 Minnesota

Pick against spread: Minnesota 3 units

This is one of many even spreads this week so I essentially just have to pick a winner. I’m going with the Vikings here. Jared Allen and Ray Edwards finally came to life last week against Arizona and I think they can continue that against Chicago and their terrible pass protection this week. Jay Cutler simply can’t win when he’s heavily pressured. He’s not the type of quarterback who can succeed in this type of offense and I wouldn’t be surprised if he were traded back to Mike Shanahan this offseason to become Donovan McNabb’s successor in Washington. Brett Favre has quietly been playing very well recently. I’m not surprised. He’s at his best in the face of adversity and he’s had more adversity in recent weeks than at any point in his career, in my opinion. In his past 4, he’s 88 for 127 for 1055 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 6 picks. Obviously the picks are a problem, but that’s to be expected with Favre. I think he can lead successful drives even against Chicago’s #1 ranked pass defense this week and beat a Chicago offense that isn’t going to be scoring a lot of points this week.

New York Jets 23 Cleveland Browns 17

Spread: -3 Jets

Pick against spread: Jets 1 unit

In the past 4 weeks, the Jets have needed a PI call to beat Denver, had a bye, got shut out at home by the Packers, and needed a missed extra point and overtime to beat the Lions. They may be 6-2, but they’re certainly not playing like 6-2. In the Browns last 3 weeks, they beat New England and New Orleans. They’ve only played one game against a sub .500 team this season and they won it. They hung within a touchdown of Tampa Bay, Kansas City, and Baltimore. They may be 3-5, but they’re certainly not playing like 3-5. The problem, Vegas notices this and they made the spread a mere 3 points. I still think the Jets are the more talented team and I don’t like picking Colt McCoy to beat a great Jets defense, but I’m not all that confident in Mark Sanchez and the Jets either.

 

Indianapolis Colts 31 Cincinnati Bengals 17

Spread: -7 Indianapolis

Pick against spread: Indianapolis 2 units

The Bengals were essentially eliminated last week, falling 4 games out of the division in devastating fashion, on a failed 4^th down conversion on a dropped pass by Jordan Shipley. The Colts, meanwhile, are looking to prove themselves after losing to the Eagles. I think they’ll bounce back big this week against the Bengals. They have injuries all around, most recently and possibly most devastatingly on defense. Peyton Manning can mask their offensive issues, but not their defensive issues. However, Carson Palmer isn’t very good, so I don’t think he can take advantage of that. I have the Colts winning big, but I only have it as a 2 unit pick because the Bengals are the kings of backdoor covers. They only have 2 losses by more than 7 points this season. If you can get this spread at 6.5 however, feel free to put 3-4 units on it.

Tennessee Titans 27 Miami Dolphins 19

Spread: -1 Tennessee

Pick against spread: Tennessee 3 units

Yet another game where I just have to pick a straight up winner. The Dolphins haven’t won at home this season, but that’s excusable because the 3 teams they’ve played at home have a combined 18-6 record. They also lost to the Ravens on the road, who are also 6-2. The Titans however, might be just as good. They are 5-3 on the season, but they just added Randy Moss to open up their offense. I say might because we don’t know. We don’t know the impact Moss will have on this team. I’m picking the Titans to win. The Dolphins looked bad last week. I originally wasn’t going to put more than 2 units on this game because we simply don’t know how good the Titans are with Moss, but I would have picked the Titans to win this game easily without Moss. I can’t see the Dolphins winning this game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 Carolina Panthers 21

Spread: -6.5 Tampa Bay

Pick against spread: Carolina 2 units

The Buccaneers are a good bad team. They can beat bad teams, but not good teams. The Panthers are a bad team, but that spread is pretty large. The Bucs have only beaten one team by more than 3 points this season. Of course that team was the Panthers (13), but that was before Tanard Jackson got suspended and their defense fell apart. They rank 19^th against the pass and 31^st against the run. The Panthers should be able to move the ball in this game with Jimmy Clausen. Clausen is a better quarterback than Matt Moore in my book. He just got screwed over with his schedule. He faced Chicago’s defense (#1 versus pass), Cincinnati’s defense (#12 versus pass), and New Orleans’ defense (#3 versus pass). I expect him to be able to move the ball and keep this one within a touchdown. John Fox is also 8-3 in his career in games against divisional rivals that have beaten them previously.

Houston Texans 35 Jacksonville Jaguars 31 Upset Pick

Spread: -1.5 Jacksonville

Pick against spread: Houston 2 units

The Texans should win this game. They have an amazing passing offense and the Jaguars can’t stop anyone through the air. However, Andre Johnson is obviously not 100% right now. The Texans are not playing well right now and the Jaguars always get up for divisional opponents. They beat the Texans twice last year and they couldn’t stop the pass then either. They beat the Colts earlier this season and they shouldn’t have been able to do that either. I’m picking the Texans based off of the matchups, but I’m certainly not too confident in that, especially since I’m 1-7 picking Jaguars games this season. They’re one of the most unpredictable teams in the NFL, at least in my eyes.

Denver Broncos 26 Kansas City Chiefs 16 Upset Pick

Spread: -1 Kansas City

Pick against spread: Denver 3 units

Yes, the Broncos losing by 20 to the Chiefs at home week 17 last year is still burned in everyone’s mind, but the Broncos dominated the Chiefs in Denver before that. Their last loss to the Chiefs in Denver was in 2000, by 1 point. The Broncos are coming off of a bye week to regroup and the Chiefs look like a mess right now. The Broncos defense might be struggling, but their quarterback is significantly better right now and I’ll take the significantly better quarterback in a straight up pick game.

New York Giants 34 Dallas Cowboys 17

Spread: -13.5 Giants

Pick against spread: Giants 1 unit

I normally don’t like picking against a team that is getting 2 touchdowns or more, but I’m doing it this week. The Cowboys have been outscored 114-39 since Tony Romo went down, 34-15 of which was against these same Giants in Dallas. This team simply threw in the towel under Wade Phillips. Wade is gone, but I don’t it’ll make much of a difference. In season coaching changes never do. Teams are 2-11 ATS the week after firing their coach midseason (excluding teams with byes) since the early 90s. In season coaching changes are normally promotions of someone in house, so it makes sense that they don’t help. If they weren’t responding to the first guy, why would they respond to someone else who’s been around awhile? Teams normally need new faces when they make a coaching change and this team didn’t get one. I don’t like picking the favorite in a spread of this many points, especially when the underdog is as talented as the Cowboys are supposed to be, but I’m doing it anyway.

Arizona Cardinals 21 Seattle Seahawks 16

Spread: -3 Arizona

Pick against spread: Arizona 1 unit

The Seahawks are coming off of back to back games of losing against the spread by 25 or more points, but they get both Matt Hasselbeck and Russell Okung back which means we won’t have to see Charlie Whitehurst like we did last week or Hasselbeck take 8 sacks like he did 2 weeks ago against Oakland. When Russell Okung is in the lineup, their offense just works so much better. However, I’m going with Arizona. Hasselbeck always looks a little gun shy after getting hurt and taking a lot of sacks. Also, the Cardinals are just a better team at home. The Seahawks are too, but they’re on the road here, where they’re terrible. The Cardinals are 2-1 at home with a differential of +8. The Seahawks on the road are 1-3 with a differential of -61. I’m only putting one unit on it though because the Cardinals are a bad team favored by a field goal.

Update: Okung is out so I like my pick more, but I’m not changing the units or anything. I don’t like laying multiple units on a bad team favored and it’s not like the Cards have the pass rush to capitalize on Okung’s absence. 

San Francisco 49ers 24 St. Louis Rams 16

Spread: -6 San Francisco

Pick against spread: San Francisco 1 unit

I had this one circled as an upset and a big play before this week, but apparently Vegas had the same idea making the 49ers favorites by a whopping 6 points. I’m still taking the 49ers, but only one unit. The 49ers are a different team at home in San Francisco. They beat Oakland at home and hung within a field goal of Philly and New Orleans at home. The 49ers are also coming off their best quarterbacking performance this season. The Rams, on the other hand, have not won on the road. They’re a young team so that’s expected. Candlestick is a tough place to play for a rookie quarterback, especially in his first time in the stadium. There’s always swirling wind and the crowd noise is very underrated. It’s a former baseball stadium so the field looks bigger than it is, and thus the end zone appears farther away. There’s a reason they went 6-2 here last year.

Philadelphia Eagles 34 Washington Redskins 24

Spread: -3 Philadelphia

Pick against spread: Philadelphia 3 units

The Redskins beat the Eagles earlier this season, but they hardly looked good in doing so and the Eagles didn’t have Michael Vick for most of that game. The Redskins are also in massive chaos right now even coming out of their bye. The Eagles will be more motivated to win this game more than the Redskins. The Redskins have already won this rivalry. McNabb got his revenge on the Eagles. The Eagles will be hungry for revenge on McNabb now.

 

 

12/3/11 4 PM ET

Georgia at LSU

C Ben Jones (Georgia) #60

One of the better center prospects in the country, the physical 6-3 315 pound Ben Jones is a great interior blocker and has great chemistry with quarterback Aaron Murray. He’s a big part of the reason why Georgia is on the roll they are on now.

DT DeAngelo Tyson (Georgia) #94

A big run stuffer in Georgia’s 3-4 defense, Tyson lines up at both nose tackle and end and could play either 3-4 end or 4-3 nose tackle at the next level at 6-2 305. Tyson looks like a late rounder and a rotation player. On the season, he has 20 tackles, 3.5 for loss, and 1.5 sacks on the season.

 

12/3/11 8 PM ET

Oklahoma at Oklahoma State

OT Levy Adcock (Oklahoma State) #73

Came into the season with high expectations, but the big, physical Adcock has struggled with speed rushers on the season and doesn’t look athletic enough to stay at left tackle at the next level. The 6-6 325 pounder should be a solid right tackle or guard at the next level and looks like a day 2 pick, probably in round 3. He’ll be matched up with the speedy Frank Alexander, a fringe first rounder, in this one.

OT Donald Stephenson (Oklahoma) #59

An underrated player, the 6-6 305 pound Stephenson isn’t the most athletic, but he’s done a good job keeping Landry Jones protected this season and is worth a look as a day 3 pick and a swing tackle at the next level. 

 

Week 4 Injury Report 

Week 4 Pickups

 

RB LeGarrette Blount- Tampa Bay

Percent owned (ESPN): 1.0%

This week, Kareem Huggins went down for the season and coach Raheem Morris finally stopped using the incompetent Cadillac Williams on anything other than passing downs and Blount led the team in carries and rushing yards in a win over St. Louis. He rushed 11 times for 72 yards and should be the lead back for the rest of the season.

WR Steve Johnson- Buffalo

Percent owned (ESPN): 14.1%

Johnson has become the #1 receiver in Buffalo and with a decent QB in yan Fitzpatrick at the helm, he has fantasy potential. He caught 8 passes for 158 yards and a score last week and has 5 scores in his last 4 games. He’s caught 25 passes for 372 yards and 5 scores this season.

 

WR Davone Bess- Miami

Percent owned (ESPN): 19.1%

I mention him a lot but he needs to be owned in more leagues, especially PPR where he should be owned almost universally. He has 32 catches on the year in 6 games and has only once gone under 5 catches in a game. He has 4 games of 6 or more catches and has 348 yards on the season. He also has a score in his last 3 games.

TE Tony Moeaki- Kansas City

Percent owned (ESPN): 28.6%

Not the most amazing tight end, but with 21 catches for 236 yards and 2 scores in 6 games he’s decent and he’s consistent, with only one game under 3 catches. He’s worth a pickup in most deep leagues and should only get better as the season goes on as a rookie receiver learning the nuances of the game. 

 

 

Quarterback

Arizona

6-5 243

Draft board overall prospect rank: #181

Draft board overall quarterback rank: #7

Overall rating: 56 (5^th round)

40 time: 5.13

Games watched: Stanford/Arizona, UCLA/Arizona

Positives

·         Great arm strength

·         Prototypical size (6-5 243)

·         Strong, breaks tackles

·         3 year starter

·         Productive player in a major conference (2009: 63.6%, 6.1 YPA, 19/9 TD/INT, 2010: 67.1%, 7.5 YPA, 20/10 TD/INT, 2011: 69.1%, 7.7 YPA, 28/14 TD/INT)

·         Highly recruited

·         All the tools

·         Played with very little supporting cast, particularly offensive line and defense

·         Played through injury

·         Tough, durable

·         Good short to intermediate accuracy

·         Gotten off to hot starts in each of last 2 seasons

·         Flashes on tape

·         Pro style experience

Negatives

·         Footwork is a mess

·         Poor decision making

·         Gun shy – takes too long to make decisions, opts to check down way too often

·         Not a winner (4-13 in last 17 games)

·         Leadership? Intangibles?

·         Poor pocket presence

·         Takes too many sacks

·         Dinks and dunks too much, rather than trying to lead scoring drives

·         Doesn’t trust his arm

·         Poor deep accuracy

·         Bailed out often by Juron Criner

·         Awful Pro Day – scouts said he couldn’t even throw a spiral

·         Statue in the pocket (5.13 40)

·         Struggles late in the season

NFL Comparison: Jevan Snead

As a prospect, Foles reminds me of Jevan Snead, who came out in 2010. Snead was at one point a potential first round prospect because he had all the tools and even was considered a possible 3^rd round pick after his final season ended. However, he had a poor draft pre-season and did not even get drafted, much to the surprise of many. He had all the tools, but no one wanted to bother with a draft pick on him because his game was too much of a mess. Tampa Bay signed him as an undrafted free agent and he has yet to take a snap in the NFL.

Foles might not go undrafted. Someone might take a chance on him, but it’s important to note that it is a pretty big chance. He also could go undrafted like Snead somewhat surprisingly did in 2010. Like Snead, Foles has poor footwork, questionable decision making, and poor deep accuracy. Snead threw 20 interceptions in his last season at Mississippi. Foles threw 14, but could have thrown more. He was often bailed out by receiver Juron Criner, especially in the red zone.

I watched Nick Foles go toe-to-toe with Andrew Luck and Stanford earlier this season. Their stats were very, very similar, in fact, you could argue Foles had the better stats. Luck went 20 of 31 for 325 yards and 2 touchdowns. Foles went 24 of 33 for 249 yards and a touchdown. Foles, in fact, completed his first 16 passes. However, Stanford won 37-10.

The difference was evident. Luck showed tremendous pocket presence, leadership, and made all the clutch throws. He led touchdown drives. Foles seemed more content dinking and dunking his way to nice stats, but there was no substance. He’d throw short of the sticks on 3^rd down and stall around the 40 and takes untimely sacks because he had the ball too long. He’s got a great arm, he just doesn’t seem to trust it. He also seems to lack the intangibles. He doesn’t have “it”. He’s not a winner.

On top of that, he starts seasons well, but doesn’t finish them well. This season, he started with 10-0 TD-INT, but finished 18-14 TD-INT in his last 8 games. On the season, he completed 69.1% of his passes, 7.7 YPA, and 28 touchdowns to 14 interceptions. Last season he had a very high completion percentage (mid 70s) to start the season, but finished at 67.1%. I thought that was related to a leg injury that he came back too quickly from, but it’s starting to look like a trend. 

He’s got the base arm strength to be a legitimate starting quarterback in the NFL, but so did Snead and he went undrafted. So did Kyle Boller and JaMarcus Russell and they were complete busts. As a 5^th or 6^th round pick, you can definitely work with him as a developmental 3^rd quarterback, so I think he’s worth a selection there. I just wouldn’t get my hopes up about him, like Trent Dilfer (called him a top-15 pick a couple months ago) or Todd McShay (has him ranked 4^th on his quarterback board).

Free Agency Priorities

Guard

Caleb Schlauderaff could easily become a future starter given their history of late round success and draft success in general, but I wouldn’t want to count on him next year. They almost never sign outside free agents, so they’ll probably resign Daryn Colledge instead of an outside free agent at guard.

Rush Linebacker

This has about a snow ball’s chance in hell of happening, but if they could sign an established outside free agent rush linebacker, that would be sick. Instead, they’ll hope they can find a consistent producer from Frank Zombo, Brad Jones, Erik Walden, and Ricky Elmore.

3-4 Defensive End

They seem ready to part with Cullen Jenkins as a free agent. They won’t sign anyone from the outside, but that might be a good idea. CJ Wilson, Mike Neal, and Lawrence Guy all have talent, but not a lot of experience.

 

Draft Needs 

Rush Linebacker

Clay Matthews is a beast. Even more impressive is that he’s doing all this without someone across from him to draw attention. They need someone like what LaMarr Woodley is to James Harrison in Pittsburgh.

Drafted Ricky Elmore (#197) 

Guard

Daryn Colledge is a free agent and he needed to be upgraded anyway. Danny Watkins is a 2^nd rounder who can come in and help right away.

Drafted Caleb Schlauderaff (#179) 

Offensive Tackle

After another season ending injury, Mark Tauscher is likely done. Chad Clifton had a Pro Bowl year, but turns 35 in June. He has 2 years left on his deal and I think he’ll call it quits afterwards. The plan likely is to move Bulaga to left tackle when that time comes. Bulaga was drafted with the 23^rd pick in 2010. That would leave them needing a new right tackle. I’m not sold on TJ Lang.

Drafted Derek Sherrod (#32) 

3-4 Defensive End

Cullen Jenkins is a free agent and Johnny Jolly is coming off a season long suspension that might not be lifted before 2011 starts.

Drafted Lawrence Guy (#233) 

Running Back

James Starks and Ryan Grant will likely split carries in 2011, assuming both are healthy, but Grant will be in a contract year in 2011 and he’s 29 in December coming off a season ending injury. He’s likely gone after 2011. They’ll need a compliment to James Starks for the future because Starks is injury prone and Brandon Jackson sucks. 

Drafted Alex Green (#96)