By Trey Huguley 

On Thursday the Houston Texans administration made a new rule regarding tailgating on the grounds of Reliant Stadium on Gamedays. Beginning week 5 against the New York Giants, to be allowed onto Reliant grounds tailgaters will be required to either A) have a ticket to the game or B) have one of 2000 tailgating passess that will be issued/sold by the team. The team enacted this rule for a number of reasons, but two that stand out high above the others that are geared toward improving the experience for people who actually spend money to go to the game. One – it should alleviate some of the traffic around the Reliant area and Two – it will open up parking options that would normally have been taken by squaters who weren’t even attending the game. 

This move has created quite a bit of outrage from Texans fans who spend every home game hanging out in the parking lot, eating barbecue, drinking way too much and starting fights; the whole time wishing the whole time they were actually in the stadium. To these fans, I say, “Tough! Deal with it. Why don’t you spend time watching the game from the comfort of your own couch with your family, with friends at a Bar or have a game watching BBQ.”

Why in the world they want to deal with the masses of people to tailgate in front of a stadium for a game that starts at noon will always baffle me. 

Sure, I enjoy going to one or two games a year when I have a chance. And sure, when I do, I certainly wander around the parking lot in search of beer and barbecue, but come game time – I’m in my seat, ready to yell. Then for the other 6 home games a year, I couldn’t be happier with a beer on my couch or out at the local sports bar enjoying the game way more than I would at a tailgate for a game that I didn’t even have tickets.

Personally I see this new rule as a great thing for the Houston Texans organization, their fans and the city of Houston. Not only will this keep out the riff-raff and free up some of the parking for actual patrons, but it will also do quite a few other positive things. For one – it will help the economy of Houston. Sports bars and restaurants all over the city will see much busier Sunday afternoons when the 20,000 plus displaced fans decide they want to go “somewhere” to watch the game. If these establishment run specials and market the heck out of them, they could make Sunday one of their biggest revenue days of the week.

The rule will also keep actual transients as well as transient away fans out of the stadium grounds. In the past, there has been a bit of a problem with fans of other teams showing up just to start trouble.  Gangs, thugs and bums have also found their way out on Sunday’s to beg for food, rob people and start fights. While this wasn’t a common occurance, the new passing will keep these unwanted guests from crashing the party.

Texans fans have been notorious for not being in their seats come kick off time and spending half the game outside tailgating with their buddies that didn’t have tickets rather than cheering on the team. As we saw in the opening day against the Colts, the power of a loud stadium can be the determining factor in the game. Less people around who don’t have tickets means more people will be in their seats for the game. This will obviously result in more wins.

All in all, I applaud the Texans for making this move to expunge the non-true Texans fans who just like to be passive in their fannism treating it as a social event rather than a game. Go watch the game else where or buy a ticket, hippies.

http://www.houstonsportblog.com/ 

 

 

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1. Adrian Peterson

2. Chris Johnson

3. Ray Rice

4. Maurice Jones Drew 

5. Andre Johnson 

6. Frank Gore

7. Aaron Rodgers

8. Michael Turner

9. Rashard Mendenhall

10. Steven Jackson

11. Miles Austin

12. Shonn Greene

13. Drew Brees

14. Ryan Grant

15. Jamaal Charles 

16. Cedric Benson

17. Randy Moss  

18. Jonathan Stewart

19. DeAngelo Williams

20. Peyton Manning

21. Calvin Johnson

22. Tony Romo 

23. Tom Brady

24. Ryan Mathews

25. Matt Schaub

26. DeSean Jackson

27. Roddy White

28. Brandon Marshall

29. Greg Jennings

30. Steve Smith (CAR) 

31. Knowshon Moreno 

32. Reggie Wayne

33. Pierre Thomas 

34. Larry Fitzgerald 

35. LeSean McCoy

36. Jahvid Best

37. Joseph Addai

38. Marion Barber

39. Marques Colston

40. Steve Smith (NYG) 

41. Malcom Floyd 

42. Wes Welker

43. Antonio Gates 

44. Dallas Clark

45. Arian Foster 

46. Jerome Harrison 

47. Ahmad Bradshaw

48. Ronnie Brown 

49. Mike Sims Walker 

50. Anquan Boldin 

  

51. Vernon Davis

52. Pierre Garcon 

53. Michael Crabtree

54. Philip Rivers 

55. Dwayne Bowe

56. Hakeem Nicks 

57. Terrell Owens 

58. Chad Ochocinco 

59. Hines Ward  

60. Derrick Mason 

61. Brent Celek

62. Mike Wallace

63. Robert Meachem

64. Jason Witten

65. Tony Gonzalez

66. Santana Moss 

67. Michael Bush 

68. Jeremy Maclin 

69. Zach Miller

70. Jermichael Finley

71. Brandon Jacobs 

72. Brett Favre 

73. Percy Harvin 

74. Matt Forte 

75. Jay Cutler

76. Ricky Williams 

77. Mohamed Massaquoi

78. Kellen Winslow

79. Tim Hightower 

80. CJ Spiller 

81. Chris Wells 

82. Visanthe Shiancoe 

83. Thomas Jones 

84. Mike Williams 

85. Dez Bryant 

86. Jabar Gaffney 

87. Bernard Berrian 

88. Donald Driver 

89. Johnny Knox 

90. Greg Olsen

91. Reggie Bush

92. Joe Flacco

93. Lee Evans

94. Donovan McNabb 

95. Cadillac Williams

96. Leon Washington 

97. Clinton Portis

98. Louis Murphy 

99. Owen Daniels

100. Carson Palmer 

 

 

Running Back

Mississippi State

5-10 219

Draft board overall prospect rank: #109

Draft board overall running back rank: #8

Overall rating: 65 (3rd/4th round)

40 time: 4.63

Games watched: LSU/Mississippi State, Mississippi State/Wake Forest

Positives

·         Powerful runner

·         Good size (5-10 219)

·         Great north/south runner

·         Runs well between the tackles

·         Explosive to the hole

·         Powerful lower body

·         Tough to tackle

·         Good pad level

·         2 year starter

·         Productive in tough conference (2010: 186 carries for 968 yards and 19 touchdowns, 2011: 193 carries for 1189 yards and 10 touchdowns)

·         Succeeded with little supporting cast

·         Improved pass catcher (20 catches as a senior)

·         Great work ethic (not highly recruited, went to JuCo, turned into Mississippi State’s leading rusher)

·         Good pass protector

Negatives

·         Poor 40 time (4.63)

·         Not a good outside runner

·         Doesn’t have breakaway speed

·         Not quick

·         Doesn’t break a lot of tackles in space

·         Never carried a big load

·         Not a good natural athlete

·         Pass catching still could improve (wouldn’t trust on 3^rd down right away)

·         Durability?

·         Ball security?

·         Struggled against Alabama and LSU (who didn’t?)

NFL Comparison: Daniel Thomas

Vick Ballard reminds me of Daniel Thomas. Thomas was a 2^nd round pick last year after 2 years as a starter at Kansas State. Like Ballard, he’s a former JuCo player. Both are powerful backs without a ton of speed or mobility. Thomas ran a 4.60 at 6-1 228. Ballard ran a 4.63 at 5-11 218. Both are also solid pass catchers with some fumble problems. They have very similar running styles.

I thought Thomas was a bit overdrafted in the 2^nd round last year. Ballard will probably be a 5^th round pick or so and I think he’ll be a little underdrafted. He can be a solid tandem back at the next level, which is what Thomas became as a rookie in Miami with Reggie Bush. That appears to be his best role going forward, rather than a 3 down back, which is what you’re typically looking for in the 2^nd round. I have a borderline 3^rd/4^th grade on him and I think he’ll make some team very happy in the mid to late rounds. He’s an underrated back who put up good numbers on a poor team against tough competition in the SEC.

 

 

11/3/11 8 PM ET

Florida State at Boston College

OLB Nigel Bradham (Florida State) #13

Out of the speedy linebacker factory that is Florida State, the 6-1 240 pound Nigel Bradham has 45 tackles, 4.5 for loss, 2 sacks, 2 pass deflections, and a pick in 8 games this season. He’s a 3 year starter and a very fundamental sound player who looks like a mid rounder.

CB Donnie Fletcher (Boston College) #4

Fletcher’s stock is slipping this season as he hasn’t played well as a senior. However, he was a potential day 2 prospect coming into the season and if he starts playing better, he could be an interesting mid rounder.

10/29/11 12 PM ET (ESPN 3 Replay)

Michigan State at Nebraska

CB Alfonzo Dennard (Nebraska) #15

Dennard came into the year as a first round pick at cornerback, but injuries have hurt him and he’s been exposed without Prince Amukamara opposite him. He’s slipping right now and could end up in the 2nd round or later unless he can have a good game against a pair of potential day 2 picks, wide receiver BJ Cunningham and Quarterback Kirk Cousins throwing to him.

S Trenton Robinson (Michigan State) #39

Robinson had 76 tackles and 4 picks in 2010 and now has 31 tackles, 2 picks, a tackle for loss, a sack and a pass deflection in 7 games this season. In a weak safety class, he could end up in day 2.

 

11/5/11 12 PM ET

Michigan at Iowa

WR Marvin McNutt (Iowa) #7

No Ricky Stanzi, no problem. The 6-4 215 pound McNutt is putting it all together in his senior season with 48 catches for 878 yards and 9 touchdowns in just 8 games. He looks like a day 2 prospect at the moment, but if he keeps this up, he could go higher.

CB Shaun Prater (Iowa) #28

One of two potential day 2 prospects at cornerback for Iowa, Prater has a pick six this season and has done a good job in coverage overall. He had 4 picks with a pick six last season.

10/29/11 3:30 PM ET (ESPN 3 Replay)

West Virginia at Rutgers

WR Mohamed Sanu (Rutgers) #6

The 6-3 215 pound Sanu took over where Kenny Britt left off after Britt went in the first round to the Titans in 2009. Sanu caught 51 passes for 639 yards and 3 touchdowns in 2009 as a freshman. Poor quarterback play in 2010 limited him to 44 catches for 418 yards and 2 scores, but he’s taken his game to a whole different level this year with 65 catches for 683 yards and 6 touchdowns in just 7 games even though his quarterback play still hasn’t been good. He could end up a first round pick like Britt before him. He’ll be matched up with Keith Tandy, a potential mid round pick, in this one.

DE Manny Abreu (Rutgers) #51

Abreu plays end and outside linebacker for Rutgers and at 6-3 260, he looks like a prototypical 4-3 defensive end or 3-4 outside linebacker. In 7 games this season, he has 17 tackles, 4.5 for loss, and 2.5 sacks.

10/29/11 8 PM ET (ESPN 3 Replay)

Wisconsin at Ohio State

WR Nick Toon (Wisconsin) #1

Nick Toon (yes, that’s his real name) caught 54 passes for 805 yards and 4 touchdowns as a sophomore in 2009, but struggled last year with just 36 catches for 459 yards and 3 touchdowns. Now healthy again, Toon has become Russell Wilson’s favorite target this year with 27 catches for 505 yards and 6 touchdowns in 6 games. The son of former Jet Al Toon, Toon has impressed me this season on tape and I’m looking forward to spotlighting him. Before tweaking his foot and not playing against Indiana and then struggling against Michigan State, Toon’s stock had moved all the way into the 2^nd or 3^rd round range. If he can turn things back around, he’ll stay in that range.

RB Dan Herron (Ohio State) #1

After an awesome season in 2010 where the 5-10 205 pound Herron rushed for 1155 yards and 16 touchdowns on 216 carries, Herron was suspended for 6 games to start this season. He played well in his season debut against Illinois, rushing for 114 yards and a score on 23 carries.

11/5/11 8 PM ET

LSU at Alabama

OLB Courtney Upshaw (Alabama) #41

A jack of all traits for Alabama, the 6-2 260 pound Upshaw plays inside and outside at linebacker in Alabama’s 3-4 and could theoretically play both 4-3 linebacker and defensive end (a la Von Miller) at the next level. His best fit is as a 3-4 outside linebacker, where he’ll have an advantage coming from a 3-4 scheme. In 8 games, he has 27 tackles, 11.5 for loss, 4.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, and a pick.

C William Vlachos (Alabama) #73

After Ohio State’s Michael Brewster and Wisconsin’s Peter Konz, this is the top center in this class. As the class’ #3 center, he’s probably a late day 2 pick. He’s not the most athletic player, but he’s fundamentally sound and an excellent run blocker, especially in the 2^nd level.

ESPN3 Replays

11/5/11 7 PM ET

Notre Dame at Wake Forest

WR Michael Floyd (Notre Dame) #3

He’ll have to answer for some off the field stuff, but there’s no denying his on the field abilities. In 8 games, he’s caught 63 passes for 788 yards and 5 touchdowns. Last year, he had 79 catches for 1028 yards and 12 touchdowns despite an inconsistent situation at quarterback. Someone is going to take a chance on this athletic 6-3 receiver in the first round.

S Harrison Smith (Notre Dame) #22

A big thumping strong safety, the 6-2 220 Smith has 58 tackles in 8 games this year after 91 tackles last year. He also picked off 7 passes last year, though he has yet to pick one off this year, and broke up 8 passes last year. In a weak safety class, Smith could be one of the first off the board. Mel Kiper loves him.

11/5/11 7:15 PM ET

South Carolina at Arkansas

DE Melvin Ingram (South Carolina) #6

He’s cooled off a bit after a hot start to the season that had many considering him a potential first rounder, but he still has 32 tackles, 9 for a loss, and 5.5 sacks in 8 games this season. He’s also scored 3 times, in weird ways, for what that’s worth. He had 9 sacks last year and he has an awesome motor and should still be a 2^nd or 3^rd rounder. His best position is left end at 6-2 278, but hypothetically he could play 3-4 end depending on his weigh ins pre-draft.

MLB Jerry Franklin (Arkansas) #34

A high character kid and a 4 year starter, Franklin has 337 tackles in his career. This year, he has 68 tackles, 9.5 for a loss, 3 pass deflections, and 0.5 sacks. He had 6.5 sacks last year and plays both inside and outside for Arkansas. He’s best as a middle linebacker at the next level in either a 3-4 or a 4-3 at 6-1 250.

 

 

WR Doug Baldwin- Seattle

Percent owned (ESPN): 19.9%

Sidney Rice is done for the since so you would figure Doug Baldwin, who already leads the team with 45 catches for 718 yards and 3 touchdowns, would get even more of the targets. You would be right as Baldwin once again led the way for the Seahawks on MNF with 7 catches for 93 yards and a touchdown.

WR Demaryius Thomas- Denver

Percent owned (ESPN): 9.6%

He might not have the best hands, but Denver’s wide receivers are very thin, so he’s actually Denver’s best and most targeted receiver. In the last 2 weeks, he’s caught 11 passes for 222 yards and 3 scores. Look for that to continue.

QB TJ Yates- Houston

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.9%

This TJ Yates kid isn’t too bad. He threw for 300 yards and 2 picks against one interception against Cincinnati this week. He’s got plenty of weapons to work with and a good offensive line and defense supporting him. There’s some upside with him as a QB2. If you need a quarterback, you can do a lot worse than picking up Yates.

WR Kevin Walter- Houston

Percent owned (ESPN): 12.6%

Walter was Matt Schaub’s favorite weapon the last time Andre Johnson was out. Johnson is out again and even with TJ Yates at quarterback, Walter still has some value. Yates isn’t too bad and he seemed to like throwing to Walter against Cincinnati, when he caught 6 passes for 76 yards and a score.

 

WR Donald Driver- Green Bay

Percent owned (ESPN): 18.0%

Greg Jennings is done for at least 2-3 weeks with an MCL tear so it’s next man up in Green Bay’s explosive offense. The man to benefit most figures to be long time Packer Donald Driver, who caught 4 passes for 74 yards last week in the game in which Jennings got hurt.

RB Chris Ivory- New Orleans

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.5%

Mark Ingram isn’t healthy and Ivory was the lead back in his absence this week with 15 carries for 67 yards. This could be more than a one week thing given Ingram’s injury (turf toe).

WR Damian Williams- Tennessee

Percent owned (ESPN): 12.1%

Matt Hasselbeck got hurt and Jake Locker came in. Locker’s favorite target was Damian Williams, who saw 10 targets for 4 catches and 62 yards. The Titans haven’t had a legitimate #1 receiver since Kenny Britt went down and Williams has the most upside of any of their receivers. Locker could be the starter for the rest of the season, which would be a good thing for Williams’ fantasy value.

RB Keiland Williams- Detroit

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.5%

With Kevin Smith out, Keiland Williams got the bulk of the carries over Maurice Morris, rushing for 43 yards on 12 carries. There could be some upside going forward here.

 

Last week overall: 8-8

Last week ATS: 7-9 (-320/-7%)

Overall picks: 28-20

ATS Picks: 21-24-3 (-930/-7%)

Lock picks: 2-1

Upset picks: 3-2

Sports Betting FAQ 

San Francisco 20 Atlanta Falcons 23

Spread: -7 Falcons

Pick against spread: 49ers 2 units (+200)

The Falcons just won an emotional contest, against their rival Saints, in emotional fashion. They got so geared up for that game and had to go all out to win, that I doubt they’ll be 100% in it to play the 0-3 49ers this week. The 49ers, meanwhile, are desperate they need a win. All that being said, Atlanta is simply the superior team. Matt Ryan should pick apart this 49ers’ secondary, the way Matt Hasselbeck, Drew Brees, and Matt Cassel, yes even Matt Cassel, did before him. It’ll be closer than the public expects, but I’ve got the Falcons winning in a close one, but failing to cover.

New York Jets 24 Buffalo Bills 12

Spread: -6 Jets

Pick against spread: Jets 3 units (+300)

The Bills scored 30 points last week, 11 more than they did in the previous 2 weeks combined. However, they were playing the Patriots. Now they get the Jets. Good luck with that. The Bills aren’t going to score very much in this one. I’d say no more than 17 points. Mark Sanchez has led this offense to 59 points in the last two weeks combined against the Patriots and Dolphins. He should be able to lead his team to enough points to win this one and win it by more than that 6 point spread.

Cincinnati Bengals 19 Cleveland Browns 12 2 units

Spread: -3 Bengals

Pick against spread: Bengals 2 units (-220)

Carson Palmer isn’t a very good quarterback. He doesn’t have the arm strength to scare defenses and open up running lanes for Cedric Benson. That being said, he does have an amazing defense behind him. You saw what they did to Jimmy Clausen and Joe Flacco. Imagine what they’ll do to Seneca Wallace. It’s not going to take a lot of points for the Bengals to win this one, especially against an average at best Cleveland stop unit. I think Palmer will get it done and cover that mysterious tiny spread.

Detroit Lions 19 Green Bay Packers 31 1 unit

Spread: -14 ½ Packers

Pick against spread: Lions 1 unit (+100)

Taking a team against a spread of more than 2 touchdowns when it just lost last week and is coming off a shortened week thanks to a Monday Night game is really risky. The Packers lost the game for themselves last week, but are still a great offensive unit. However, Ndamukong Suh could possibly cause the same sort of trouble for Green Bay’s offensive line that Julius Peppers and the Bears did on Monday Night. This Detroit defensive line is great and completely revamped. That’ll take some of the pressure off of their miserable secondary as they try to stop the aerial attack of Aaron Rodgers and company. They’re not going to win this, but I’ll take the Lions given 14.5 points.

Denver Broncos 16 Tennessee Titans 30

Spread: -7 Titans

Pick against spread: Titans 3 units (-330)

The Broncos stink against the run. Now they have to stop Chris Johnson. Good luck with that. I think there’s a very reasonable chance CJ2K goes over 200 yards in this one and that’ll be huge for the Titans. This is clearly a run based offense. Vince Young struggles when relied on to create points in the absence of a strong running game. You saw what happened when Pittsburgh held Chris Johnson to 38 yards. They lost. With the exception of that loss, the Titans have two double digit wins so I think they’re still better than given credit for. I’ll take them to beat the overrated Broncos easily.

Seattle Seahawks 13 St. Louis 19 Upset pick

Spread: -1 ½ Seahawks

Pick against spread: Rams 3 units (+300)

The Seahawks are like Jekyll and Hyde home and away. This team is 3-14 since 2008 on the road. They won last week at home on the strength of their home crowd. And also on the strength of two kick return touchdowns. That won’t happen again. Those things are very inconsistent. The Rams won last week and looked good in the process. I expect them to protect their home turf and win in an upset fashion over the Seahawks.

 

Carolina Panthers 16 New Orleans 34

Spread: -14 Saints

Pick against spread: Saints 1 unit (-110)

I know I said it’s almost never a good idea to take a team coming off of a loss against a 2 touchdown spread, but I’m doing it here. This is not an even matchup at all. Drew Brees should finally break the 30 point mark this week against a weak Carolina defense. The only reason he didn’t weeks 2 and 3 is because the other team was able to win the time of possession battle. That won’t happen this week. John Fox no longer knows how to write a game plan and Jimmy Clausen isn’t capable of moving the chains consistently against a defense as complex as the Saints. Last year rookie quarterbacks, Freeman, Sanchez, and Stafford, all played New Orleans’ defense and all 3 stunk. With the Saints winning the time of possession battle, they’ll break 30 and Jimmy Clausen is going to have a hard time staying with 2 touchdowns of that, with that crappy supporting cast, against that defense.

Baltimore Ravens 12 Pittsburgh Steelers 17 2 units

Spread: -2 Steelers

Pick against spread: Steelers 2 units (-220)

The Steelers’ first 3 opponents’ quarterbacks are a combined 92 for 147 for 1085 yards 12 touchdowns and 1 pick in games not played against the Steelers and a combined 54 for 85 for 504 yards no touchdowns and 4 picks. Those three quarterbacks, young quarterbacks, Vince Young, Matt Ryan, and Josh Freeman. Joe Flacco is a young quarterback. Why won’t he struggle? He did it against the Bengals and I expect him to throw interceptions here. Forget having Ray Rice to help him. Even if Rice does play, the Steelers held Michael Turner and Chris Johnson under 50 yards this year. Rice isn’t doing anything this week even if he does play. That’ll make things so much easier for the Pittsburgh offense who will win this close one in a hard fought trench battle.

Houston Texans 28 Oakland Raiders 17

Spread: -3 ½ Texans

Pick against spread: Texans 3 units (+300)

The Texans shouldn’t have any problem running the football against the Raiders. Arian Foster is a great running back and the Raiders can’t stop the run. However, the passing game should be a concern. Andre Johnson either won’t play or will be limited and have Nnamdi Asomugha on him. That means Schaub will have to look to other options. Schaub is a good quarterback, but can he be Peyton Manning and have a strong game in spite of his receivers. Last time the Texans played the Raiders, the Raiders shut down Johnson and won. However, I think this is a more balanced Texans team and a more mature Matt Schaub so I’ll take them to easily outscore the lowly Raiders by more than 4.

Indianapolis Colts 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 20

Spread: -8 Colts

Pick against spread: Colts 2 units (-220)

The Jaguars always play the Colts tough. The Jaguars match up well with the Colts. The Jaguars have lost to the Colts by more than 8 twice in their last 16 meetings. That said, I’m taking the Colts to beat the Jaguars more than 8. The reason the Jaguars have had decent success in the past against the Colts is their running game. The Colts have never been able to stop the run. However, MJD is playing hurt right now. He’s not right. They’re running game shouldn’t strike fear in anyone’s hearts. They’ll run decent, but David Garrard is going to have to make some things happen himself. Peyton Manning might have a perfect passer rating in this game. The Jaguars defense hasn’t stopped anyone through the air since like 2007 (I wish I were exaggerating). Peyton Manning should have a field day and Garrard won’t be able to keep up.

Washington Redskins 24 Philadelphia Eagles 19 Upset Pick

Spread: -6 Eagles

Pick against spread: Redskins 4 units (+400)

The Eagles are vastly overrated right now. Michael Vick played two good quarterbacks in garbage time against a Packer team that wasn’t expecting him and then destroys two crappy defenses like Detroit and Jacksonville and all of a sudden he’s their savior, better than McNabb was, and a top 5 quarterback? I’m not buying it. McNabb is still the much better quarterback here and he has the better supporting cast. The Eagles defense isn’t very good. They never replaced Sheldon Brown opposite Asante Samuel. Even Shaun Hill led his team to 32 points against them. Plus McNabb knows them. He’s practiced against this defense and this scheme was 10 years and when that type of familiarity is there, it normally is in favor of the quarterback, especially if it’s a smart quarterback. Also, McNabb is hungry. He’s secretly pissed at the Eagles and their fans and everyone who has Vick is better than him. Expect him to have a monster game, with the Redskins actually decent defense limiting Vick’s effectiveness through the air, and the Redskins to win. That -6 spread for the Eagles is ridiculous. This should be easy money this week.

Arizona Cardinals 12 San Diego Chargers 31 Lock Pick

Spread: -9 Chargers

Pick against spread: Chargers 2 units (+200)

The Chargers seem to have a home/away Jekyll/Hyde type thing going on as well. They played great at home week 2 against Jacksonville, but lost in Kansas City and Seattle in pathetic fashion. However, they are still a good team. The Cardinals aren’t going to return 2 kickoffs for touchdowns like the Seahawks did. They don’t have anyone like Leon Washington on the roster. This game is in San Diego. They’ll have a more prepared Marcus McNeill this week, after he ended his holdout mid last week. I expect this one to be similar to the Jacksonville game. The Cardinals and Jaguars are similar in that they both suck. I am hesitant to make the Chargers my lock pick this early in the season, but I will anyway. I’m just not putting more than 2 units on this one. The Chargers have burned me before.

Chicago Bears 23 New York Giants 20 Upset pick

Spread: -3 ½ Giants

Pick against spread: Bears 2 units (-220)

I don’t really know what to make of this game, but the Bears have played better than the Giants this season so I see no reason why the Giants should be favored by 3 and a half points. For that reason, it’ll put a small amount on the Bears against the spread, but I think this should be a close one. I don’t have a solid read on the Giants at all. They’re really talented, but playing like crap. The Bears are getting really lucky every week, have a strong run defense and a strong passing game, the team of team the Giants struggle against, so I’ll take them to win.

New England Patriots 34 Miami Dolphins 26

Spread: – 1 ½ Patriots 

Pick against spread: Patriots 2 units (+200)

The Dolphins defense looked horrible last week allowing 31 to the Jets. Without Joey Porter and Jason Taylor, they are unable to mask their secondaries flaws and teams can rip right through them unless the other team doesn’t have a good quarterback or the Dolphins can win the time of possession battle. The Patriots offense is too good for either of those two things to happen. Chad Henne is still not someone I trust to when a game where he has to out throw the opposing team. They Dolphins best shot is if they can grind it out and take the time of possession battle that way. The Patriots aren’t good against the run and the Dolphins can definitely run, but I’ll go with Brady over Henne here.

 

 

10/15/11 12 PM ET (ESPN3 Replay)

Louisville at Cincinnati

RB Isaiah Pead (Cincinnati) #23

The senior running back rushed for 1029 yards and 6 touchdowns on 157 carries in 2010 and currently projects as a mid round pick in 2012. He’s a decent pass catcher with 26 catches in 2010, but he plays out of a weird scheme and doesn’t have great size at 5-10 200. He doesn’t have the breakaway speed to make up for it so he seems destined for day 3, but he is moving up with 473 yards and 7 scores on 72 carries, with 8 catches for 54 yards and another score.

DT Derek Wolfe (Cincinnati) #95

Wolfe started the season as a borderline day 2/day 3 prospect with 8 sacks and 14.5 tackles for loss in the past 2 years. He is moving up boards right now with 4 sacks and 7 tackles for loss already this season through 5 games. The 6-5 295 defensive tackle would fit best as a 3-4 defensive end, but he could also stay in a 4-3 as an under tackle at the next level.

10/15/11 10 PM ET (ESPN3 Replay)

Utah State at Fresno State

OLB Bobby Wagner (Utah State) #9

The 2011 preseason WAC defensive player of the year, Wagner had 246 tackles from 2009-2010. He’s a bit undersized at 6-1 230, but projects as a nice depth linebacker and special teamer at the next level. He’ll have a chance to prove he can be more than that. He started the season well with 10 tackles and a sack against Auburn. Through 5 games, he has 61 tackles, 2.5 for loss, a sack and a pick. He’s moving up draft boards a bit, but still projects as a day 3 guy.

DT Logan Harrell (Fresno State) #77

Harrell is one of the leaders in tackles for loss in Division 1 with 10 this season, coming off of a strong game against Boise State, one of his few chances to prove himself against an elite team. He has 41 tackles and 3.5 sacks on the season, but at 6-2 275 he won’t be able to play defensive tackle at the next level. It’s unclear if he projects well to 3-4 defensive end or 4-3 defensive end at that size either and he doesn’t possess a great 40 time. Combine that with his level of competition and he will probably get buried in day 3.

 

10/8/11 7 PM ET (ESPN3 replay)

Vanderbilt at Alabama

CB Casey Hayward (Vanderbilt) #19

When last I saw Casey Hayward, he was doing an admirable job on Alshon Jeffery against South Carolina. He limited Jeffery, a potential top 10 pick, to 2 catches, though poor quarterback play by South Carolina’s Stephen Garcia had a lot to do with that as well. He also had 2 picks in that game, though again, that has a lot to do with Garcia. Alabama’s passing attack is a little better so this should be a better test for Hayward, who has 12 career interceptions and is gaining some buzz as a potential late first round pick.

MLB Dont’a Hightower (Alabama) #30

Hightower is finally healthy and putting it all together. The big 6-4 260 pound linebacker has 29 tackles through 5 games in the middle of Alabama’s 3-4 defense and could end up a first round pick if he keeps this up and continues to prove his health. He was a popular name as a potential first rounder before his injuries, taking over for Rolando McClain inside for Alabama and now that he’s healthy again, he’s starting to get mocked in that range again.

ESPN3 Replays

9/24/11 3:30 PM ET

Clemson at Florida State

DE Brandon Jenkins (Florida State) #49

Jenkins burst onto the scene with 13.5 sacks and 21.5 tackles for loss last season and has bulked up to 6-3 265 for the 2011 season, in an effort to remain a 4-3 player as he heads to the NFL after this season. Jenkins will need to pick up it if he wants to remain a first rounder. He hds just 1 sack and 3 tackles for loss in his first 3 this year heading into this game

OT Andrew Datko (Florida State) #67

After Matt Kalil, Jonathan Martin, and Riley Reiff, this is a very thin offensive tackle class. For this reason, the athletic 320 pound Datko has a good chance to move into the mid-to-late first round range and go to a tackle needy team. He plays on Florida State’s left side and is a question mark for the rest of the season after shoulder surgery so I’m watching him in this replay.

10/22 7:15 PM ET

Alabama at Tennessee

DT Josh Chapman (Alabama) #99

Josh Chapman doesn’t make a huge impact on the stat sheet with 11 tackles and 1.5 tackles for a loss on the season, but the 6-1 310 nose tackle is great at tying up blockers and making things happen for the linebacker behind him in Alabama’s 3-4 defense. He’s gaining some steam as a potential 2^nd or even late 1^st rounder.

WR Marquis Maze (Alabama) #4

Alabama’s #2 receiver last year after Julio Jones, Maze caught 38 passes for 557 yards and 3 touchdowns in 2010. As the #1 guy now as a senior, he has 34 catches for 376 yards and a score in 7 games. He’s also got value as a punt returner, averaging 10 yards per return this year. He’s also scored on special teams. The 5-10 180 receiver looks like a late rounder overall.

10/22 8 PM ET

Wisconsin at Michigan State

RB Montee Ball (Wisconsin) #28

Montee Ball has 18 touchdowns on the year, 16 rushing, 1 receiving, and 1 passing on a trick player. He’s also rushed for 653 yards on 107 carries, after rushing for 996 yards and 18 scores on 163 carries last year. He also has caught 7 passes for 166 yards and a score after 16 catches for 128 yards last year. After John Clay went down with an injury last year, Ball rushed for 777 yards and 16 scores on 114 carries in 5 games. He’s 5-11 215 and runs more powerful than his size and he’s got decent speed to boot. I’m really looking forward to him going against Michigan State’s awesome defensive line, which features the top defensive tackle prospect in this draft class, Jerel Worthy.

WR BJ Cunningham (Michigan State) #3

The senior receiver for Michigan State is having a huge year with 42 catches for 621 yards and 2 scores in 6 games, after being fairly non-productive in 2010 with 50 catches for 611 yards and 9 touchdowns. The 6-2 215 pound receiver is moving up boards fast and could end up in day 2 if he keeps this up.

10/22 3:30 PM ET

Texas A&M at Iowa State

OT Kelechi Osemele (Iowa State) #72

Moving from guard to left tackle, Osemele has played well, but probably belongs at right tackle or guard at the next level. The big 6-5 345 offensive lineman obviously is better against the run than the past and belongs in a power blocking scheme, but he has held his own as a left tackle against the opponent’s best pass rusher this season in the Big 12. He’ll be tested this week by Texas A&M’s Sean Porter, a speedy rusher with 7.5 sacks on the season, leading the nation.

RB Cyrus Gray (Texas A&M) #32

Cyrus Gray was the 2^nd string running back to Christine Michael in 2009, rushing for 757 yards and 5 scores on 159 carries, with 28 catches for 221 yards and 2 scores. However, when Michael got hurt in 2010, Gray took over as the lead back and rushed for 1133 yards and 12 touchdowns on 200 carries with 34 catches for 251 yards and 1 touchdown. However, Michael is back this year and running better than him so the senior Gray has not seen the field as much, rushing for 521 yards and 7 touchdowns on 113 carries with 13 catches for 112 yards and a score. Obviously, he’s slipping from the potential day 2 prospect he was going into this season.

10/22 12 PM ET

North Carolina at Clemson

DT Brandon Thompson (Clemson) #98

Not a big stat guy, but a stud against the run at 6-2 310 and frequently takes on multiple blockers, playing a 2 gap 4-3 nose tackle type position, freeing things up for Clemson’s Andre Branch, an elite pass rusher. He did the same thing for Da’Quan Bowers last year. This year, Thompson has 27 tackles, 3.5 for loss, and .5 sacks.

TE Dwayne Allen (Clemson) #83

Allen could be the first tight end off the board in this weak tight end class. He has 27 catches for 381 yards and 4 touchdowns in 6 games this season and has been on fire in his past 5, with 29 catches for 312 yards and 3 scores in his past 4, all against tough competition, Auburn, Florida State, Virginia Tech, and Boston College. His suspect blocking could hurt his stock, but the 6-4 255 tight end has the size to become a better blocker. He’s also got great speed and great hands and is 2^nd on the team behind stud freshman wide receiver Sammy Watkins in receiving yards. 

 

 

Running Back 

West Virginia

5-7 179

Draft board overall prospect rank: #128

Draft board running back rank: #13

Overall rating: 62 (mid 4th) 

40 time: 4.26

4/16/11: So much for his bullshit weight gain from 160 at The Senior Bowl to 179 at The Combine, where he didn’t work out. Devine ran a 4.26 at his Pro Day. That’s pretty fucking fast. He’s back into day 2 consideration, even with his lack of size. Dexter McCluster went in the 2^nd round last year despite his small size.  

2/27/11: Put on 19 pounds mysteriously in one month and then didn’t run. Interesting. I’m calling bullshit on this extra weight.

2/25/11: Devine is up 19 pounds from the 160 he was listed at when he weighed in at The Senior Bowl about a month ago. He needed bulk, but how did he gain 19 pounds in a month? That’s a lot of cheetos. We’ll see how he runs in a few days. For now, I’m raising his stock.

2/19/11: We all knew Noel Devine was small, but before he weighed in at The Senior Bowl, we didn’t know how small. He weighed in at 160, 15 pounds lighter than the already minuscule 175 he was listed at. Very rarely does a running back succeed in the NFL under 200 pounds. Chris Johnson is the notable exception, as is Jamaal Charles, but both of them have their weights in the 190s, so it’s not that big of a stretch. 160 is.

Watching Devine run around at The Senior Bowl, I was reminded of when someone puts a jersey that’s two sizes too big on a little kid and has him run around the yard in pads. He looked that small. He didn’t break any tackles. He was blazing fast untouched and tough to catch, and he should run one of the faster 40 times this year, but he’s just straight line fast. He’s not shifty. He doesn’t change direction well and he can’t absorb any hits.

Devine was a highly touted prospect going into West Virginia, most notable being a candidate for ESPN’s NEXT some years back. He rushed for 4317 yards and 29 touchdowns on 729 carries in 4 years, three as a starter after Steve Slaton graduated and was drafted in the 3rd round by Houston. He also caught 91 passes in his last 3 years, so he can do that, but I don’t think he’s anything more than a really fast kick returner and a maybe 3rd down back at the next level.

NFL Comparison: Brandon Banks

By Packrphan 

Pain and misery fill the air

Penalty flags flying everywhere.

At Soldier Field on Monday night

It was better to be a Bear.

Pardon my little poetic intro, Packer fans, but what can you say after a game like last night in ChiTown? Well, lots. And it does help to vent.

For purposes of clarity, we can borrow a lyric from the Red Hot Chili Peppers to describe and summarize the game: “Give it away, give it away, give it away, now.”

With a franchise record 18 (at last count) penalties, the Packers did to themselves what Da Bearz on their own couldn’t do: make them lose the game.

I was in the stands at Soldier Field last night and the game was fugly, as the expression goes. I’m sure it was just as ugly watching on TV. Except the advantage of the latter is you are not surrounded by Bearz fans. Although I must say it was an interesting experience. Other than my two Bearz’ fan companions (who generously provided me with the ticket…you know who you are…and thank you again!), the range of conversation by those around us generally focused throughout the game on how lousy a QB Jay Cutler is, how Da Bearz have no offensive line or running game, how the secondary was letting Aaron Rodgers slice and dice them down the field, how much they hate head coach Lovie Smith, and…when the final seconds ticked off the clock, oh, but what a great team Da Bearz are. Yeah, right.

There was one of those in-stadium text polls during the game asking Bearz’ fans to vote for which player was the team’s best offensive weapon: QB Jay Cutler, WR Johnny Knox and two others I don’t recall. Toward the end of the game, the results were posted. Knox got about 43 percent of the vote. Cutler? He got 5 percent. Five percent! Where’s the love for your QB, Bearz fans? A bit of an insight there into Bearz fans…yes, I know, it’s a scary thing to contemplate. But believe me, it’s even scarier to see in person. Yikes!

Anyway…on this night, yes, Da Bearz got a “W” courtesy of great special teams’ performance — where I had given Da Bearz the edge in my preview — and Packers’ penalties. The best offense Da Bearz had going for them was the Packers’ penalties. Missed opportunities abounded. A touchdown pass was taken off the scoreboard because of a penalty. At least two interceptions were overturned because of penalties. A blocked field goal, and two big punt returns — including the one for a TD — were unexcusible breakdowns.

The old saying about shooting oneself in the foot applies very well to this game. But the Packers didn’t rely on just one six-shooter to do themselves in. They had three of ’em to do the job: 18 penalties. Mind blowing. Game losing.

“Give it away, give it away, give it away, now.”

I had predicted a close game with a final score of 24-20 Packers. For the third straight week I got the score of the winning team correct. Unfortunately, last night it was Da Bearz 20-17 over the Pack. If James Jones had protected the ball on the sideline and not fumbled it’s quite possible the Pack could have driven down and gotten that 24-20 victory I predicted. Even Bearz fans around me were bemoaning the fact that Da Bearz’ defense couldn’t stop the Packers. The only thing that could stop the Pack last night was themselves. And they did. Over and over and over.

“Give it away, give it away, give it away, now.”

In my preseason preview I indicated that the Pack would lose a game they should have won within the first six games. This was that one.

Da Bearz sit atop not only the NFC North but the NFC as a whole. For the moment. They are not, at this point, a good team despite the record. But on this night, they did what they needed to do to come out with a win. The Packers just couldn’t get out of their own way.

“Give it away, give it away, give it away, now.”

The good news is that the Detroit Lions visit Lambeau Field on Sunday. Just what the doctor ordered for the Packers to help put this miserable showing behind them.

http://PackerFansUnited.com 

 

 

2010 Record: 2-14

Draft Position: 1

2010 Season Recap: Click Here

Offseason Needs: Click Here

Free Agents/Team Transactions: Click Here

Draft Grades: Click Here

Key Offseason Moves: None