Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons 2016 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Falcons, Uncategorized

Quarterback

It may be hard to believe, but Matt Ryan, once one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL, is already going into his age 31 season and his 9th year in the league. The 2008 3rd overall pick has made 126 out of 128 possible starts in those 8 seasons in the league and has completed 64.3% of his passes for an average of 7.23 YPA, 202 touchdowns, and 107 interceptions in his career. His numbers weren’t bad in 2015 either, as he completed 66.3% of his passes for an average of 7.42 YPA, 21 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions, but he had his worst QB rating since his 2nd year in the league in 2009 and finished just 20th in the NFL in QB rating.

Many people blame his disappointing numbers on a bad marriage between him and offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, who took over as offensive coordinator last off-season, after Dirk Koetter spent 3 years in the role. However, I think the bigger reason he had a down year statistically was a weak receiving corps. Ryan actually finished the season as Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked quarterback, the 5th time in 8 years in the league in which he’s finished in the top-10 quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus. He’s also graded out above average in all 8 seasons. He should play well again in 2015, but needs more help from his receivers.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

It might sound weird to say the Falcons had issues in the receiving corps last season, given that Julio Jones caught 136 passes for 1871 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2015, finishing 1st in the NFL receiving yards and 2nd overall among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus. However, they really lacked depth behind him. Jones was targeted on 204 of 621 pass attempts, about 32.9% (highest in the NFL by a single player), while running back Devonta Freeman was 2nd on the team with 73 catches on 97 targets. Among wide receivers, Roddy White and Leonard Hankerson were 2nd and 3rd on the team with 43 and 26 catches respectively. The Falcons let both of them go and signed ex-Bengal wide receiver Mohamed Sanu to a 5-year, 32.5 million dollar deal this off-season, in order to improve their receiving corps. He’ll be the starter opposite Jones immediately.

That will probably all prove to be wasted money though, as Sanu was arguably the worst free signing of the off-season. Sanu has played all 48 games in the past 3 seasons, but has graded out well below average on Pro Football Focus in all 3 seasons and has just 136 catches over that time period, including just 33 as the Bengals’ #3 wide receiver in 2015. In 2014, the one season in which he saw significant action, he still only caught 56 passes and had a league worst 14 drops to go with that, giving him the worst drop rate in the NFL that season. He’s a #3 receiver at best and isn’t even really an upgrade as a starter opposite Jones, as bad as White and Hankerson were in 2015.

Sanu could still finish 2nd on the team in catches, especially if he commands a lot of targets, but that’ll largely be by default; they don’t have any other reliable pass catchers on the team. Justin Hardy is expected to be the #3 receiver, despite struggling on 340 snaps as a 4th round rookie in 2015. His only competition is career special teamers Devin Hester and Eric Weems and 7th round rookie Devin Fuller. Hardy should win the job, but is unlikely to take a big step forward in his 2nd year in the league in 2016.

Tight ends Jacob Tamme and Levine Toilolo remain. Tamme finished 3rd on the team in catches behind Jones and Freeman with 59, turning them into 657 yards and a touchdown, and could have decent numbers again in 2016. Tamme has actually graded out above average in 4 of 8 seasons in the league, but has averaged just 366 snaps per season in his career because of his inability to run block. Tamme played 772 snaps in 2015, but was horrible as a run blocker, causing him to grade out below average overall. Going into his age 31 season, he’s not getting any better. He’s a capable set of hands, but not much else.

Toilolo, by contrast, is more of a blocker at 6-8 265, with just 49 career catches for 337 yards and 4 touchdowns since being drafted in the 4th round in 2013. He’s not a good blocker either though, grading out below average as a run blocker in all 3 seasons he’s been in the league. Toilolo made 16 starts in 2014, but only out of desperation, as he finished 64th out of 67 eligible tight ends on Pro Football Focus and caught just 31 passes for 238 yards and 2 touchdowns. He’s probably under-qualified for even the #2 tight end job and should be pushed for snaps by 3rd round rookie Austin Hooper.

As a result of the Falcons’ inability to upgrade the receiving corps this off-season, Julio Jones will have to do all of the work himself again. Jones is one of the top few wide receivers in the entire league, averaging 7.8 catches for 112.3 yards and 0.44 touchdowns per game over the past 3 seasons. Jones was 2nd among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus in 2015, 6th among wide receivers in 2014, and was 4th among wide receivers in 2013, prior to missing the final 11 games of the season with a broken foot. He’ll remain a huge asset for the Falcons, still only going into his age 27 season, but he’s just one guy.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

Even with less than stellar numbers in the passing game, the Falcons still finished 7th in rate of moving the chains differential. Their running game, led by lead back Devonta Freeman, was a big part of that. Freeman rushed for 1061 yards on 264 carries, an unimpressive 4.02 YPC average, but he also led the league in rushing touchdowns with 11 and came in 2nd behind Adrian Peterson in rushing first downs with 67. Peterson had just 4 more first downs despite 63 more carries.

When you add in receiving stats, Freeman actually led the all running backs with 88 total first downs by a running back, as he caught 73 passes for 578 yards, another 3 touchdowns, and another 21 first downs. The Falcons probably want someone other than Freeman to finish 2nd on the team in catches in 2016, but they didn’t add any significant upgrades in the receiving corps and Freeman has great hands, so he should still have a big role in the passing game. Overall, he was Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked running back in his 2nd year in the league 2015, after struggling on 65 snaps as a rookie, and could easily have another strong year in 2016.

Freeman likely benefitted from the arrival of Kyle Shanahan as offensive coordinator, as both Kyle and his father Mike have always done a great job getting good production out of their running game, with their zone blocking scheme. The Shanahans have also always been pretty reliant on one running back, rather than mixing in two or three. It’s hard to take Freeman off the field anyway, but he should definitely continue dominating the snaps as long as he is healthy. Backup running back Tevin Coleman averaged 4.51 yards per carry on 87 carries in 12 games as a 3rd round rookie in 2015, but probably needs an injury to Freeman to see any sort of significant action. It’s a good running back duo though.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

Another staple of Shanahan coached offenses is improved offensive line play, which, in turn, helps the running game. The Falcons definitely got that in Shanahan’s first season in Atlanta. The biggest beneficiary was left tackle Jake Matthews, which was huge for the Falcons. Not only does Matthews play the most important position upfront, but he was also the 6th overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft and played concerningly poor as a rookie, finishing dead last out of 84 eligible offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus. In 2015, he leaped all the way up to 19th. Immensely talented and still only going into his age 24 season, Matthews’ best football could still be ahead of him and he could have another strong season in 2016.

Matthews might not even be their best offensive tackle though, as right tackle Ryan Schraeder also was much improved in 2015, finishing 5th among offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus, including 1st among right tackles. Schraeder was not a high pick like Matthews at all, going undrafted in 2013, but has outplayed him in each of the past 2 seasons, grading out 22nd among offensive tackles on 655 snaps in 2014, taking over as the starter mid-season. The one concern with him is he was an old rookie (part of why he went undrafted out of Valdosta State) and is already going into his age 28 season. It’s not really an issue for this season, as he should have another strong year, but that’ll be a factor in determining what kind of long-term deal they try to reach with him. He’ll be a free agent next off-season and is due for a big pay increase.

At guard, the Falcons have another pair of inexpensive starters coming off of strong seasons, but instead of young players on rookie deals, it’s veterans on cheap, short-term deals. Both left guard Andy Levitre and right guard Chris Chester are great values. Levitre has made all 112 starts in 7 years in the league, since going in the 2nd round in 2009, and graded out above average in all 4 seasons from 2010-2013, including 3 straight seasons in the top-13 among guards from 2011-2013. However, he graded out below average in 2014 and was sent to the Falcons for a couple of late round picks. That allowed the Falcons to get him on a renegotiated 4-year, 23.25 million dollar deal. Levitre subsequently had a bounce back year with the Falcons in 2015, grading out 22nd among guards, making it 5 times in 7 years that he’s graded out above average. Still only going into his age 30 season, he has a good chance to do so again in 2016.

Chester, meanwhile, was Pro Football Focus’ 24th ranked guard, though he’s a little bit less of a sure thing to repeat, going into his age 33 season. He also easily could have another solid year. He’s made 127 starts in 153 career games in 10 years in the league and has graded out above average in 3 of the past 5 seasons. The Falcons brought him back on a 1-year, 2.35 million dollar deal this off-season, so they obviously think he has one more season left as a starter, at least. It’s no guarantee, but he could continue to be a serviceable stopgap starter at the position. Both he and Levitre excel as run blockers.

The only hole on the Falcons’ offensive line last season was center and the Falcons addressed that in a big way this off-season, by signing top free agent center Alex Mack to a 5-year, 45 million dollar deal, making him the highest paid center in the NFL. Two years ago, Mack would have definitely been worth it, as Mack was a top-11 center in each of the first 5 seasons of his career from 2009-2013, after going in the first round in 2009. However, Mack was limited to 5 games by a broken leg in 2014 and then finished just 13th among centers on Pro Football Focus.

Mack did great a big contract two years ago, as the Browns re-signed him to a 5-year, 42 million dollar deal, but he was able to opt out after 2 years and 18 million and still get another big contract. Going into his age 31 season, coming off of a serious injury and a down year, his 2nd big deal makes a lot less sense than his first one. However, even if he’s overpaid, he’s an obvious asset for a team that needed a center badly this off-season. With his addition, this is now one of the best offensive lines in football.

Grade: A

Defensive Line

While the Falcons’ offense was great in 2015 and has strong potential again for 2016, their defense was what kept them out of the playoffs last year, as they finished 15th in rate of moving the chains differential. They’ll need to be better in 2016. They have a crowded front 7, with a lot of capable players, but they don’t have anyone who dominates on every snap. The closest thing they might have to that is free agent acquisition Derrick Shelby, who finished 23rd among edge defenders on Pro Football Focus on 836 snaps with the Dolphins in 2015, earning him a 4-year, 18 million dollar deal from the Falcons. He’s a one-year wonder, maxing out at 446 snaps prior to 2015 and graded out slightly below average in both 2013 and 2014, but he could have another solid year.

Adrian Clayborn remains as the other starter. He’s also coming off of a pretty solid year, grading out just above average. He too is a bit of a one-year wonder, but for different reasons. A 1st round pick by the Buccaneers in 2010, Clayborn had a solid rookie year, grading out just slightly below average and excelling as a pass rusher, but missed 28 games with injury from 2011-2013 and struggled mightily when on the field in 2012. He played in all 16 games in 2015 though and showed he’s still a solid player when healthy. If he can stay healthy again, he should be a capable starter again, at the very least.

With Shelby coming in, 2015 8th overall pick Vic Beasley will be moving from defensive end in outside linebacker in base packages, playing the Bruce Irvin role in head coach Dan Quinn’s Seattle style defense (Quinn was Seattle’s defensive coordinator in 2013 and 2014). As an every down defensive end, Beasley graded out about average as a rookie, rushing the passer well, but struggling against the run. That was basically the book on him coming out of Clemson, highly athletic at 6-3 246, great pass rush upside, but doesn’t hold up against the run.

The Falcons are hoping that by transitioning Beasley to more of a hybrid outside linebacker/defensive end role, they can minimize situations where he’s playing on the defensive line on run plays. He’ll play 4-3 outside linebacker in base packages and 4-3 defensive end in sub packages, rushing the passer off the edge. Both starting defensive ends Adrian Clayborn and Derrick Shelby are bigger defensive ends at 6-3 280 and 6-2 280 respectively, so both could see snaps rushing the passer from the interior, with Beasley moving down to defensive end in sub packages.

The Falcons also have veterans Brooks Reed, Courtney Upshaw, and Dwight Freeney in the mix for snaps. Reed and Upshaw are both traditionally 3-4 outside linebackers and are pretty similar players. Reed spent the first 4 years of his career as a 3-4 outside linebacker in Houston, after getting drafted in the 2nd round in 2011, grading out above average in 3 of 4 seasons, but struggled to find a position in Atlanta’s 4-3 in his first season in Atlanta in 2015, playing just 351 total snaps and seeing time at both outside linebacker and inside linebacker. He didn’t play badly in limited action, but it appears they’ll try him at defensive end in 2016, even though he’s undersized at 6-3 254 and has graded out below average as a pass rusher in all 5 seasons of his career. He’s not a lock for playing time.

Like Reed, Upshaw spent the first 4 seasons of his career as a 3-4 outside linebacker, after getting drafted by the Ravens in the 2nd round in 2012. Like Reed, he’s not much of a pass rusher, grading out below average in that aspect in all 4 seasons in Baltimore, but he graded out above average against the run in 3 of the 4 seasons. Like Reed, he has an uncertain role this season, with Beasley playing outside linebacker and Clayborn and Shelby starting at defensive end. He’s bigger than Reed at 6-2 272, so he fits as a 4-3 defensive end a little bit better than Reed does, but has been a 3-4 outside linebacker dating back to his collegiate days at the University of Alabama.

Freeney, meanwhile, was signed late in the off-season (early August) and is going into his age 36 season, but he might have a better chance at carving out a sub package role in this defense. He still graded out above average last season on 593 snaps (between the regular season and post-season), excelling as a pass rusher, as he always has. A likely future Hall-of-Famer, Freeney has 119.5 career sacks (3rd among active players) and has finished above average in all 9 seasons of Pro Football Focus’ history, but he’s not the same player he once was and it’s hard to trust him at his age. He could prove to be a nice, inexpensive signing for a team that needed pass rush depth, but that’s far from a sure thing.

At defensive tackle, 4 players are competing for snaps, and, as mentioned, both Clayborn and Shelby could see time in sub packages. None of the four figure to see significant action. Tyson Jackson and Jonathan Babineaux are the veterans, going into their age 30 and 35 seasons respectively. Babineaux actually led the position in snaps played with 557 in 2015 and graded out above average, despite his age. He’s graded out above average in 8 of the 9 seasons in Pro Football Focus’ history, but, at his age, he’s really hard to trust. He’ll play primarily as a sub package interior pass rusher again.

Jackson, meanwhile, is only a base package player at this point in his career. He only played 462 snaps last season and could easily play fewer in 2016. A bust as the 3rd overall pick in 2009, Jackson has graded out below average overall in 6 of 7 seasons in the league and below average as a pass rusher in all 7 seasons. Now going into his 30s, he won’t be getting better any time soon. Both he and Babineaux could cede snaps to 2nd year player Grady Jarrett, a steal of a 5th round pick in 2015, who flashed on 268 snaps as a rookie. A breakout year is a real possibility for him.

The fourth defensive tackle in the mix is Ra’Shede Hageman, another young player, a 2014 2nd round pick. The first two seasons of Hageman’s career have been disappointing, as he’s been limited to 651 snaps combined and has graded out below average in both seasons. The Falcons will be hoping that he can have a breakout year in his 3rd year in the league in 2016, but Jarrett has a better chance. It’s an underwhelming group of defensive tackles in general on an overall underwhelming defensive line, but the addition of Shelby will help.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

As already mentioned, Vic Beasley will play as the 3rd linebacker in base packages, moving to the defensive line in sub packages when a 5th defensive back enters. The other two linebacker spots are up for grabs though. Veterans Paul Worrilow, Philip Wheeler, and Sean Weatherspoon are in the mix, but all 3 struggled in 2015. Worrilow has made 42 starts in 47 games in 3 seasons in the league, since going undrafted in 2013, but has been one of the league’s worst linebackers over that stretch, showing why he went undrafted. He’s been a bottom-10 middle linebacker on Pro Football Focus in each of the past 3 seasons and a bottom-5 middle linebacker on Pro Football Focus in each of the past 2 seasons.

Wheeler and Weatherspoon have had good seasons, but it’s been a while and now they are going into their age 32 season and age 29 season respectively. Wheeler was Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker in 2012, but has graded out below average in 5 of 8 seasons in the league, has only twice played more than 550 snaps, and is coming off of a 2015 season in which he played just 146 snaps. Add in his age and he’s nothing more than a desperation starter at best.

Weatherspoon is still relatively young, but his issue has been injuries, as the 2010 1st round pick has missed 35 games with injury in 6 seasons in the league. He missed all of 2014 with a torn achilles and played pretty badly on 159 snaps in 13 games last season. He claims to be healthy now and he was Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker in 2011, but that’s the only season in his career in which he’s graded out above average and his injury history makes it hard to trust he’ll be healthy.

With obvious issues at the position, the Falcons used a 2nd and a 4th round pick on linebackers in the 2016 NFL Draft, taking LSU’s Deion Jones in the 2nd and Minnesota’s De’Vondre Campbell in the 4th. Jones is expected to beat out the incumbent Worrilow for the starting middle linebacker job, while Campbell will compete with Weatherspoon and, to a lesser extent, Wheeler for the outside job. No matter how it shakes out, both are positions of weakness. Jones was a reach in the 2nd round, earning a 7th round grade from Pro Football Focus, while Campbell was not a high pick and can’t be trusted as a rookie. The fact that both could start this season just shows you how bad the Falcons’ linebackers are, other than part-time linebacker Vic Beasley..

Grade: D

Secondary

The saving grace of this defense is a young secondary led by cornerback Desmond Trufant, a 2013 1st round pick who has quietly been one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL since he entered the league. He’s made 48 of a possible 48 starts in 3 career seasons and has graded out 7th, 6th, and 13th among cornerbacks on Pro Foootball Focus in 2013, 2014, and 2015 respectively. The Falcons made the no-brainer move to pick up his 5th year option for 2017 and will likely to try sign him to a long-term extension sometime in the next 12 months. One of the Falcons’ true top-level talents, the Falcons will need to pay him like a top-5 cornerback at the very least to keep him. Only going into his age 26 season, he has a bright future, in addition to a bright present.

Another 4th year player starts opposite him, as Robert Alford has made 29 starts in 3 seasons in the league, since getting drafted in the 2nd round in that same 2013 draft, including 25 starts over the past 2 seasons and 15 last season. Alford struggled in his first 2 seasons in the league, but graded out above average for the first time in his career in 2015. He’s another extension candidate, though they may be wary of overpaying for a one-year wonder. The Falcons drafted Jalen Collins in the 2nd round in last year’s draft as a potential future starter. Alford should be able to hold him off for now, coming off of a strong season, but they may view Collins as the internal replacement to Alford.

Another reason why Alford should be able to hold off Collins pretty easily, if there even is any competition both the two, is that Collins failed a drug test for performance enhancing drugs this off-season and will miss the first 4 games of the season. That puts a damper on his long-term development a little bit, as does the fact that he struggled mightily on 306 snaps as a rookie. In his absence, the Falcons will have to turn to Akeem King, a 2015 7th round pick who played just 16 defensive snaps as a rookie. Depth is a serious problem behind starting solid duo at cornerback.

Adding to the youth in the secondary, the Falcons drafted Florida safety Keanu Neal in the 1st round 17th overall in this year’s draft, to replace departed veteran William Moore. He will be an immediate starter, but was a reach in the middle of the first and could struggle as a rookie. He was given a 6th round grade and considered one of the draft’s biggest busts by Pro Football Focus. Even if that’s over-exaggerating it, Neal is much better moving forward then backwards at 6-0 211 and is a major liability in coverage. The Falcons see Kam Chancellor, who head coach Dan Quinn had in Seattle, but it might not work out that way.

With Neal often playing up closer to the line of scrimmage frequently, the other safety spot will be playing a deep center field, a la Earl Thomas if we’re continuing the Seattle comparison. The problem is the Falcons don’t have anything resembling Thomas on the roster. Ricardo Allen, a 2014 5th round pick, is the incumbent, making 14 starts in his first season of significant action in 2015, but Kemal Ishmael is also in the mix and outplayed Allen on limited snaps in 2015, grading out above average, while Allen came in slightly below.

Ishmael has some experience, making 10 starts in 2014, but has only once graded out above average in 3 seasons in the league since going in the 7th round in 2013. Neither are bad options, but neither are particularly good ones either. Neal injured his knee this pre-season, putting his status in question for the start of the season, so both Allen and Ishmael could see playing time together early in the year. Continuing the Seattle comparison even further, Trufant as the Richard Sherman isn’t too far off, but the safeties are miles away from Quinn’s old Legion of Boom safeties. The secondary is still their best defensive unit, but that’s not saying much on this defense.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Falcons have talent on offense, but figure to have a lot of trouble stopping anyone on defense. That was basically the case last season, but they benefitted from the 2nd easiest schedule in the NFL and the 2nd fewest adjusted games lost to injury, two things they likely won’t have again in 2016. They made a number of questionable decisions this off-season, including signing Mohamed Sanu and drafting Keanu Neal and Deion Jones in the first two rounds, and, aside from one-year wonder Derrick Shelby, didn’t really add much this off-season. It’s going to be tough for this team to make the playoffs.

Prediction: 6-10 4th in NFC South

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Carolina Panthers 2016 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Panthers, Uncategorized

Quarterback

The Panthers finished the 2014 season at 7-8-1, winning the division and making the playoffs purely because of how bad the rest of the division was. Last pre-season, the Panthers lost #1 wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin for the season with a torn ACL. Their outlook wasn’t looking great ahead into 2015. Instead, they won the first 14 games of the season and finished 15-1, the best record in the NFL. The Panthers did not win the Super Bowl, losing in the big game to the Denver Broncos, but they finished the regular season 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential and there’s no arguing that they were one of the top-2 or 3 teams in the league all season, a huge accomplishment for a team with such low expectations.

The Panthers were improved on both sides of the ball from 2014 to 2015, but probably the biggest reason for their breakout year in 2015 was the breakout year they got from franchise quarterback Cam Newton. The #1 overall pick in 2011, Newton had graded out above average in each of the first 4 seasons of his career from 2011 to 2014, but finished a career best 2nd among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus in 2015. Despite obvious issues in the receiving corps, Newton completed 59.8% of his passes for an average of 7.75 YPA, 35 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. He also was once again arguably the best running quarterback in the NFL, rushing for 636 yards and another 10 touchdowns on 132 carries (4.81 YPC). Largely as a result of Newton’s improved play, the Panthers went from 12th to 4th in rate of moving the chains from 2014 to 2015.

Even more exciting for Panthers fans is that he was significantly better throwing the ball in the 2nd half of the season than he was in the 1st half of the season. In the first 8 games of the season, he completed just 53.7% of his passes for an average of 7.40 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. The Panthers were winning, but were relying heavily on their defense and just 2 of their first 8 wins came by more than 8 points. They moved the chains at a rate of 70.79% in those 8 games, solid, but unspectacular.

Over the final 8 games of the season, that rate jumped to 79.29%, as Cam Newton completed 65.9% of his passes for an average of 8.10 YPA, 21 touchdowns, and 1 interception, clinching an improbable MVP season in his 5th year in the league. The Panthers did lose a game down the stretch, but, even though they “only” went 7-1 in those final 8 games, they had 5 wins by more than 8 points and were not as reliant on their defense, which did slip up a little down the stretch. Newton struggled in the Super Bowl loss to Denver, but overall played well in the playoffs considering he was going against Seattle, Arizona, and Denver, three of the best defenses in the NFL. He completed 58.2% of his passes for an average of 8.36 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions in the playoffs, while adding 95 yards and another 2 scores on the ground on 27 carries.

With Kelvin Benjamin returning, it’s very possible that Newton continues his strong play from down the stretch and has an even better season in 2016. Immensely talented since the day he stepped into the league, Newton seems to have finally put it all together and turned into the top-5 quarterback that many saw as his upside coming out of Auburn 5 years ago. At the same time, it was worth remembering that he is a one-year wonder in terms of being a top level quarterback, so it’s also possible he slips up and “regresses to the mean” a little bit. Either way, the Panthers’ offense is in good hands.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

As I mentioned, the injury to Benjamin was a big hit to a receiving corps that was not very deep to begin with; Benjamin and tight end Greg Olsen combined for 49.25% of the Panthers’ targets in 2014, most in the league by any two teammates, with both receivers topping 1000 yards in the process. Benjamin himself was targeted 146 times, 5th in the league, so it was a big role to fill in the offense. In Benjamin’s absence, Greg Olsen led the team in receiving yards, topping 1000 yards for the 2nd straight season, catching 77 passes for a career high 1104 yards and 7 touchdowns.

Olsen, a 2007 1st round pick, has graded out above average as a pass catcher in all 9 seasons he’s been in the league and above average overall in 8 of those 9 seasons. He’s really come into his own over the past few seasons though, topping 800 yards in 4 straight seasons and 1000 yards in 2 straight seasons, while grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked tight end in 2015 and their 6th ranked tight end in 2014. Olsen is going into his age 31 season, but hasn’t missed a game since his rookie year and has shown no signs of slowing down. Cam Newton loves throwing to him and balls should keep coming his way, even with Benjamin returning.

Veteran Ted Ginn was the de facto #1 receiver last year, catching 44 passes for 739 yards and 10 touchdowns. The fact that it was Ginn in that role shows just how thin the Panthers were at wide receiver. Ginn played just 151 offensive snaps as the Cardinals’ #5 receiver in 2014 (the same Cardinals that the Panthers clobbered in the NFC Championship game in 2015) and signed with the Panthers on a cheap 2-year, 4.2 million dollar deal last off-season. Ginn graded out above average in 2013 for the Panthers, but that was the only above average season in his career. Primarily signed for his special teams ability, Ginn ended up playing 670 snaps and grading out above average again.

Ginn clearly has great chemistry with Cam Newton, as he’s a one-dimensional deep route runner and Newton consistently throws catchable deep balls, but it’s hard to trust that he’ll play well again in 2016, as he’s still graded out below average in 7 of 9 seasons in the league. Going into his age 31 season in 2016, the Panthers probably want Ginn to play much more of a complementary role; he still only caught 45.8% of his targets last season. WIth Benjamin returning, Ginn will compete with 2nd year player Devin Funchess. The 2015 2nd round pick flashed on 493 snaps as a rookie and is likely the favorite for the #2 job in 2016, pushing Ginn inside to the slot. Corey Brown, who actually led the Panther wide receivers in snaps played last season with 753, slides into the #4 role, where he’s a much better fit.

With Benjamin returning and Funchess possibly going into a breakout year, this is suddenly a much better group of wide receivers, even if Ginn disappoints. Benjamin wasn’t great as a rookie, grading out below average despite having 1000+ yards, as he finished 20th in receiving yards despite getting the 5th most targets. He’s also coming off of a serious knee injury. However, he’s a former 1st round pick who is only going into his age 25 season and his 3rd year in the league. He’s young enough to bounce back from the injury fairly easily and could have a breakout year in his 3rd year in the league.

Even if he doesn’t, it’ll be good to have him back, though don’t expect him to get the 5th most targets in the league again, as he did in 2014. The Panthers are a run heavy team with a dual threat quarterback and a great defense and have to get Greg Olsen a lot of targets. Plus guys that Benjamin didn’t have to compete with in 2014 like Ted Ginn and Devin Funchess will command targets. Fewer targets could lead to disappointing numbers overall from a fantasy football perspective, even if Benjamin actually plays better than he did as a rookie. He’s a massive reach in the 3rd round of drafts, where his ADP currently stands.

The only weakness in this receiving corps is the tight end depth, as veteran Ed Dickson returns as the #2 tight end. Olsen never gets hurt, but Dickson still played 598 snaps last season, primarily in two-tight end sets, and struggled mightily, finishing 58th out of 67 eligible tight ends on Pro Football Focus, especially struggling as a run blocker. That’s par for the course from him, as the veteran has graded out below average in 5 of 6 seasons in the league, including 3 straight seasons in which he’s been in the bottom-10 among tight ends. He could be pushed for snaps by 7th round rookie Beau Sandland, but he probably wouldn’t be much of an improvement. It’s an improved receiving corps overall though.

Grade: B

Running Backs

As mentioned, this is a run heavy offense, thanks to dual threat quarterback Cam Newton and a great defense supporting them. They joined the Vikings, Seahawks, and Bills as the only teams in the league to run more often than they passed in 2015 and led the league with 526 carries. Newton had 132 carries, right around his career average of 119.8 carries per season, but it wasn’t just Newton as running back Jonathan Stewart averaged 18.6 carries per game, 3rd most in the NFL behind Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson and Pittsburgh’s Le’Veon Bell. Fullback Mike Tolbert also had 63 carries for 256 yards and a touchdown, though he’s a declining player, going into his age 31 season. He’s graded out below average on Pro Football Focus in back-to-back seasons.

Stewart got a big workload when he was on the field, but unfortunately he didn’t last the whole season, missing the final 3 games of the regular season with a foot injury, before returning for the playoffs. A 2008 1st round pick, injuries and durability issues have been the story of Stewart’s career. The 243 carries he had last season were a career high and he’s missed 25 games with injury in 8 seasons in the league, including 23 in the last 4 seasons. When healthy though, he’s a good player, grading out above average in 6 of 8 seasons in the league, including last season.

Stewart’s career numbers are good, as he’s rushed for 5814 yards and 36 touchdowns on 1283 carries (4.53 YPC). However, he was limited to just 4.09 yards per carry last season, falling just short of what could have been his 2nd 1000-yard rushing year. He also only caught 16 passes for 99 yards, right in line with his underwhelming career pass catching numbers: 146 catches for 1183 yards and 6 touchdowns in 103 games. Owed a non-guaranteed 6.25 million in his age 30 in 2017, it’s possible this is Stewart’s final season in Carolina.

The Panthers needed to find a long-term replacement and a short-term complement for Stewart this off-season, but, outside of two undrafted free agents, didn’t add a running back this off-season. That suggests they’re confident in 2015 5th round pick Cameron Artis-Payne’s long-term potential. Artis-Payne split snaps with veteran Fozzy Whitaker and fullback Mike Tolbert when Stewart missed the final 3 games of the season. Both Whitaker and Artis-Payne were underwhelming though, grading out below average and averaging 4.32 and 4.07 YPC on 25 and 45 carries respectively. Whitaker is a 2012 undrafted free agent with 123 career touches, while Artis-Payne is an underwhelming talent who is unlikely to make a 2nd year leap. The Panthers have a serious depth problem at running back.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

The offensive line is the unit that’s had the biggest and quickest turnaround over the past couple of seasons for the Panthers and was a huge part of their success last season. The Panthers have a pair of 3rd year starters from the 2014 draft class upfront and both have been big parts of this turnaround, even though neither was a high pick. 2014 3rd round pick Trai Turner and 2014 undrafted free agent Andrew Norwell were Pro Football Focus’ 7th and 8th ranked guards respectively in 2015. Neither of them are one-year wonders either. They ranked 23rd and 15th on 673 snaps and 696 snaps respectively as rookies in 2014. They could be the best guard duo in the NFL in 2016.

Right tackle Mike Remmers, a 2012 undrafted free agent, is also going into his 3rd season as a starter. He isn’t quite as good, but he’s graded out above average in each of the last 2 seasons, the only seasons in his career in which he’s seen any sort of significant action. He flashed on 367 snaps in 5 starts down the stretch in his 3rd year in the league in 2014, coinciding with the Panthers’ miraculous run to the playoffs that season, and then graded out just above average in 16 starts in 2015.

Remmers will remain the starter on the right side in his 3rd year in the league, with veteran Michael Oher opposite him on the left side. Like Remmers, Oher graded out above average in 2015 and, like Remmers, he was a great value, coming in on a 2-year, 7 million dollar deal last off-season. Oher is not nearly as great of a value anymore, since the Panthers signed him to a 3-year, 21.6 million dollar extension this off-season with 9.5 million guaranteed. That could prove to be a mistake, as there was a reason he was available so inexpensively last off-season.

Oher had a strong rookie year, but graded out below average in every season from 2010-2014, including 68th out of 76 eligible offensive tackles in 2013 and 75th out of 84 eligible offensive tackles in 2014. The Titans inexplicably signed him to a 4-year, 20 million extension after his terrible 2013 season and then cut him after one-year and 9 million after he struggled again in 2014. Highly inconsistent at best, the Panthers might end up regretting giving him this extension as much as Tennessee regretted giving him that “4-year” deal.

Center Ryan Kalil is the constant that has been with this team through good times and bad. Kalil has started 115 games in 9 years with the Panthers, since they drafted him in the 1st round in 2007. Kalil has graded out above average in 6 of the last 7 seasons, with the only exception coming in an injury plagued 2012 season. Going into his age 31 season, ihe’snot quite the same player he used to be, when he was one of the top few centers in the NFL, but he still graded out 11th among centers in 2014 and 12th among centers in 2015. He should grade out above average at the very least again in 2016 on an overall strong offensive line.

Grade: A

Defensive Line

As I mentioned, the defense was also much improved from 2014 to 2015, jumping from 18th in 2014 to 4th in 2015. Players like cornerback Josh Norman, middle linebacker Luke Kuechly, outside linebacker Thomas Davis get more attention, but defensive tackle Kawann Short is as important to this defense as any of them. The Panthers used their first and second round picks on defensive tackles in 2013, taking Star Lotulelei in the first round and Kawann Short in the second round, but Short has definitely been the better player. Short has played in all 48 games over the past 3 seasons and has finished 13th, 9th, and 6th among defensive tackles on Pro Football Focus in 2013, 2014, and 2015 respectively.

Lotulelei hasn’t been bad either, though he’s coming off of a down year, grading out below average for the first time in his career, especially struggling as a pass rusher. Lotulelei has bounce back potential, given that he ranked 17th among defensive tackles in 2013 and 24th in 2014, but he’s only once graded out above average as a pass rusher. The big 6-2 320 pounder is a great run stuffer at his best and even graded out above average on run snaps in last year’s down year, but might be best as a two-down player going forward.

Given that, it’s strange that the Panthers used a first round pick on a defensive tackle in Vernon Butler that is very similar to Lotulelei in skill set and frame at 6-4 323. The 5th year option on Lotulelei’s rookie contract was picked up by the Panthers this off-season, so Lotulelei is under team control fairly inexpensively for two seasons. Short is going into the final year of his contract, but the Panthers would use the franchise tag on him before letting him hit the open market, so neither figures to be going anywhere for a couple years, and Butler profiles as more of a replacement for Lotulelei than Short anyway.

The Panthers also signed veteran defensive tackle Paul Soliai, who is more of an early down run stuffer as well, at 6-4 344. Soliai is experienced, with 86 starts in 128 career games in 9 seasons in the league, but has graded out below average in 6 of 9 seasons in the league. He graded out slightly above average on 357 snaps last season, but, going into his age 33 season, Soliai won’t have a big role in a crowded group of defensive tackles. It’s a deep group of defensive tackles, but the pieces don’t seem to fit well together.

As surprising as it was that the Panthers took a defensive tackle in the 1st round, it was equally surprising that they didn’t take a defensive end at all, given that defensive end was a much bigger position of need, following the retirement of Jared Allen. The Panthers will go into 2016 with the trio of Kony Ealy, Charles Johnson, and Mario Addison working in rotation at the two defensive end spots. Ealy led the position in snaps played with 648 last year and should be the starter on one side this year. Ealy, a 2014 2nd round pick, has graded out below average in each of his first 2 seasons in the league, but improved significantly from 2014 to 2015. In 2014, he finished 56th out of 59 eligible 4-3 defensive ends, but in 2015, he almost graded out above average. It’s not a guarantee, but he could easily have the best season of his career in 2016. He seems like a capable starter at the least.

The Panthers are hoping that Charles Johnson can be the starter on the other side. The 2007 3rd round pick has made 90 starts in 118 games in 9 seasons in the league, but was limited to 388 snaps in 9 games by injury last season. Going into his age 30 season, Johnson was let go this off-season, ahead of a non-guaranteed 11 million dollar salary, but was brought back on a much cheaper 1-year, 3 million dollar deal. Given that he’s graded out above average in each of the last 8 seasons, including last year’s injury plagued season, it’s a great value. Gone are the days of him grading out #3 overall, like he did in 2011, but he’s still a capable starter at the very least as long as he can stay healthy; he missed just 6 games with injury in the 7 years prior to last season. Where he ends up beyond 2016 is unknown, but he should be an asset for the Panthers this year.

If he can’t stay healthy, Mario Addison would likely become the starter and will see snaps as the 3rd defensive end at the very least. Going into his 6th year in the league and already his age 29 season, Addison has averaged just 338 snaps per season over the first 5 seasons of his career. He’s also graded out below average in 3 of those 5 seasons, including last season. I thought the Panthers would bring in a young defensive end to compete with Addison for the #3 job and to potential be a long-term starter opposite Ealy, with Johnson’s status’ unclear long-term, but they did not. Still, it’s a strong defensive line.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Panthers’ linebacking corps if their best unit, led by Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis, arguably the best 4-3 linebacker duo in the NFL. Kuechly won Defensive Player of the Year in 2013, the only time someone other than JJ Watt has won that award in the past 4 seasons, but Kuechly’s best seasons have arguably been the last two, the two after his Defensive Player of the Year season. Kuechly has graded out as Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked middle linebacker in each of the past 2 seasons and, though he missed 3 games with injury in 2015, he was Pro Football Focus’ highest ranked defensive player at any position, even after ahead of Watt.

A top-8 middle linebacker in each of the first 4 seasons of his career, Kuechly’s career is on a Patrick Willis/Ray Lewis type trajectory and it would not surprise me at all if he won another Defensive Player of the Year award or two before it’s all said and done and ended up in the Hall of Fame. Still only going into his age 25 season, the former 9th overall pick is one of the top few players in the NFL regardless of position. He’s also a bargain, signed for just 64.105 million over the next 6 seasons.

Thomas Davis obviously isn’t as good, but he’s still very valuable to this defense. The fact that Davis is still playing at a high level is borderline miraculous, considering he was limited to 9 games from 2009-2011 with 3 separate torn ACLs. Davis has missed just 2 games in the past 4 seasons and has graded out in the top-10 among 4-3 outside linebackers on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 3 seasons. Davis is going into his age 33 season and did show some signs of declining in 2015, falling from 4th among 4-3 outside linebackers in 2013 and 5th in 2014 to 10th last season, but he should have another couple strong seasons left in the tank.

It’s not even just Kuechly and Davis, as the Panthers also have 2015 1st round pick Shaq Thompson, opposite Davis at the other outside linebacker spot. Thompson played just 365 snaps as a rookie, but played really well in limited action and should have a larger role in his 2nd year in the league in 2016. Any role he has will be limited by the fact that Kuechly and Davis never come off the field and teams use sub packages with only two linebackers the majority of the time now, but the Panthers can find creative ways to keep all 3 linebackers on the field in sub packages. Thompson is an incredible athlete at 6-0 230 and could see some time at safety in certain situations. It’s probably the strongest 4-3 linebacking corps in the NFL.

Grade: A

Secondary

One reason Thompson seeing some time at safety makes some sense is because the Panthers lost veteran starting safety Roman Harper this off-season. However, 3rd year player Tre Boston is expected to take Harper’s starting job and has a chance to have a breakout year. Boston has graded out above average in each of his first two seasons in the league, on 369 and 222 snaps respectively, including a 2014 rookie season in which he finished 21st among safeties on Pro Football Focus, despite the limited playing time. He was just a 4th round pick in 2014 and he’s still unproven in a larger role, but he could easily be another mid-round steal by Panthers GM Dave Gettleman, who has really turned this team around.

The Panthers are also hoping that cornerback Bene Benwikere, a 5th round pick in 2014, can be one of those mid-round steals. Benwikere looked like a future star as a rookie, finishing 18th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus, despite playing only 459 snaps. However, he couldn’t continue that in a larger role in 2015, grading out below average on 788 snaps. Now going into his 3rd year in the league, Benwikere is the Panthers’ de facto #1 cornerback, after losing Josh Norman (16 starts) and Charles Tillman (12 starts) this off-season.

Benwikere hasn’t played badly overall in his career and it’s possible he takes a leap forward in his 3rd year in the league, but I wouldn’t bet on it. The Panthers are hoping he can be their next Josh Norman (a 2012 5th round pick who broke out in his 3rd year in the league), but, as of right now, he looks like a massive downgrade from the departed Norman, who was Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked cornerback in 2015. Benwikere’s also currently still working back from a broken leg that ended his 2015 season early and has missed 9 games in 2 seasons in the league.

With Norman and Tillman gone, a trio of rookies and veteran Robert McClain will compete for playing time after Benwikere on the depth chart. The Panthers used a 2nd round pick on Samford’s James Bradberry, a 3rd round pick on West Virginia’s Daryl Worley, and a 5th round pick on Oklahoma’s Zack Sanchez. They’ll be hoping one or more of those players can have a strong rookie season, but it’s very hard to count on rookies, especially ones that weren’t high draft picks. Bradberry was a reach in the 2nd round, while Worley might end up at safety long-term. Sanchez is undersized and not yet NFL ready.

McClain might not be a better option though. A 6-year veteran, McClain was Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked cornerback in 2012, but finished below average in the other 5 seasons. He’s bounced around from Carolina to Jacksonville to Atlanta to New England back to Carolina. Fifteen of his 17 career starts were in his 3 seasons in Atlanta, but he didn’t even last until final cuts in New England, before ending up back in Carolina, where he struggled mightily on 225 snaps between the regular season and post-season.

McClain doesn’t bring anything more than experience, but that could be enough for him to carve out a significant role among a group of cornerbacks that really lacks experience. It wouldn’t surprise me if they brought back Charles Tillman, as he wasn’t bad last season and is still available as a free agent, but it’s unclear what he has left in the tank, going into his age 35 season, coming off of a January torn ACL, and having missed 26 of 48 possible games in the past 3 seasons combined. He’s likely done.

Rounding out the secondary is the lone veteran starter, safety Kurt Coleman. Coleman had a major breakout year in his 6th year in the league in 2015, grading out 14th among safeties on Pro Football Focus. Coleman, a 7th round pick in 2010, was a starter early in his career, but was clearly not ready for a starting role, grading out well below average in both 2011 and 2012, before moving back to a reserve role in 2013 and 2014. Coleman flashed on 396 snaps in 2014, but, besides 2015, that’s the only other season of his career in which he’s graded out above average.

He could have another strong season and prove to be a late bloomer, but he could also prove to be a one-year wonder. The Panthers will obviously be hoping it’s the former, as, with Norman gone, Coleman is now their best defensive back. He’s surrounded by inexperience and, though there is a lot of promise in this secondary, they’ll probably need the front 7 to mask their flaws as much as possible in 2016. Panther secondaries have annually exceeded expectations in recent years, thanks to a great defensive coaching staff led by defensive coordinator Sean McDermott, but the loss of Norman could prove to be too big.

Grade: C

Conclusion

The Panthers’ defense probably won’t be as good again in 2015, as the loss of Josh Norman should prove to be huge and leaves the secondary very thin. However, they have arguably the most talented offense in the league. They finished last season on fire and are much improved at wide receiver this season, after that position was their only real weakness on offense in 2015. Kelvin Benjamin returns, while 2nd year player Devin Funchess could have a breakout year in his first year as a starter. 2015 may prove to be the best year of Cam Newton’s career, but he’s still one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and has the most talented supporting cast of his career, especially if Jonathan Stewart can stay healthy. They should be able to move up and down the field easily, which will keep them among the top teams in the league. 15 wins is obviously unlikely again and they might not even win 12, especially against a tougher schedule, but they’re on the Super Bowl short list for sure.

Prediction: 12-4 1st in NFC South

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Los Angeles Rams 2016 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Rams, Uncategorized

Quarterback

The Rams’ offense finished the 2015 season dead last in rate of moving the chains and by a pretty significant margin. They finished at 62.47%, while the 49ers, who finished 2nd worst, finished at 64.40%. The running game wasn’t really the problem, as their 4.56 yards per carry average was 6th in the NFL (more on that in a bit), so the obvious culprit is the passing game. In fact, between two different starting quarterbacks (Nick Foles and Case Keenum) the Rams completed just 57.7% of their passes for an average of 6.20 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, a QB rating of 74.1 that was worst in the NFL.

Despite giving Case Keenum a 1st round tender worth 3.635 million dollars as a restricted free agent and talking him up as a starter early this off-season, the Rams knew all off-season they needed to upgrade the quarterback position. Foles was arguably the worst quarterback in the league last year and has since been released, while Keenum is an undersized former undrafted free agent with a 79.8 career QB rating on 455 career pass attempts who isn’t anything more than a backup going into his 5th year in the league. It’s very possible that the Rams were smoke screening all along by talking up Keenum, in order to not seem as desperate in negotiations to move up from 15 to draft a quarterback.

The Rams still paid a fortune to move all the way up to #1 though. In essentially a reverse RG3 trade, the Rams sent the Titans both of their 2nd round picks, their 3rd round pick, and a 1st and 3rd round pick next year to move up from 15 to 1 to select California quarterback Jared Goff (the Rams also received a 4th and 6th from the Titans). It’s obvious why they made the move, given their weakness at the quarterback position and the importance of that position in today’s NFL, but I was not a fan of the move. Goff was not a can’t miss prospect like even RG3 was and the Rams’ offensive struggles go far deeper than the quarterback position. He may not even begin the season as the starter, if the Rams decide to go with the veteran Keenum to start the year. Goff has looked really bad this pre-season.

Given how bad their offense was last season, it’s tough to say they were just a quarterback away from being a good offense and the trade made it so the Rams didn’t pick again until the 4th round. They didn’t make any major additions on offense outside of Goff all off-season, so he walks into a nearly impossible situation for a young quarterback. Goff is now the face of the franchise for a team with the 4th longest active playoff drought in the NFL (11 years), in their first season back in Los Angeles, and has arguably the worst offensive supporting cast of any quarterback in the league. They would have been better off signing a veteran stopgap like Ryan Fitzpatrick or Robert Griffin this off-season and building around the quarterback through the draft, rather than going all in on Goff. Goff will improve this offense, but they’re a long way away from being even passable on offense.

Grade: C-

Running Backs

The one bright spot on this offense, as I mentioned, was the running game, led by standout running back Todd Gurley, last year’s Offensive Rookie of the Year. A rare running back talent, Todd Gurley tore his ACL midway through his junior year at the University of Georgia in 2014, but the Rams still took a chance on him with the 10th overall pick, despite running back not being an obvious need. Gurley was limited to 13 games by injury as a rookie, sitting out the first two games of the season rehabbing from the ACL injury, but rushed for 1106 yards and 10 touchdowns on 229 carries (4.83 YPC) and finished the season 15th among running backs on Pro Football Focus.

Another year removed from the injury, Gurley could be even better in his 2nd year in the league in 2016, still only his age 22 season. He’s likely to play more games and see more carries than he did as a rookie. In fact, he’s one of the few true feature backs in the NFL and should be considered one of the early favorites to lead the NFL in rushing, even on a bad offense, as there isn’t another serious threat for carries on this roster. He finished 3rd in rushing last season, as the league had just seven 1000-yard rushers in 2015. The Rams had good running back depth when they drafted Gurley, but they’ve since traded Zac Stacy, while 2014 3rd round pick Tre Mason, who led the team in carries as a rookie in 2014, is no longer with the team after several off-season arrests and mental health concerns. He’s not expected to play this season.

Benny Cunningham returns as the passing down back, after leading the team in passing down snaps by a running back in 2015, but he had just 37 carries despite Gurley missing 3 games with injury. The 2013 undrafted free agent has averaged just 4.31 yards per carry on 150 career carries, despite largely running in situations where the defense is expecting the pass. Todd Gurley will have to carry this running back group and this offense as a whole. He finished just 11th in rushing first downs, despite having the 3rd most rushing yards, and didn’t produce much in the passing game (21 catches for 188 yards), but still obviously has a bright future and is by far their best offensive player.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

Gurley can’t do it by himself though and, even with Goff coming in, the Rams have an alarming lack of talent on this offense. The receiving corps is probably their worst unit, as Kenny Britt led the way with 681 receiving yards last season. In fact, no Ram receiver has gone over 800 yards since the 2007 season. A lot of that has been because of consistently poor quarterback play, especially last season, but the wide receivers deserve a lot of blame as well, as they’ve really lacked in that department since Torry Holt was in his prime.

Even with a better quarterback coming in, it’s unlikely any Ram receiver passes that 800-yard threshold in 2016. Kenny Britt is likely to lead the team in receiving yards again and he’s not great. A former 1st round pick, Britt’s career was off to a solid start in 2009 and 2010, but he was limited to 73 catches in 29 games from 2011-2013 by injuries. He’s bounced back over the past 2 seasons with the Rams, grading out above average in both 2014 and 2015, but he’s not the player it looked like he would be early in his career, just barely grading out above average in both seasons.

Tavon Austin returns as the starter opposite him. Also a former 1st round pick (2013), Austin hasn’t been much more than a gadget player in his career, grading out significantly below average as a pass catcher on Pro Football Focus in all 3 seasons in the league. Last season was the best of his career in terms of receiving numbers, but he still caught just 52 passes for 473 yards and 4 touchdowns and ran a very limited route tree, with his average catch coming 2.63 yards from the line of scrimmage.

He has blazing speed, but is a limited player at 5-9 174 whose biggest contributions have come as a runner and a return man. He’s rushed for 809 yards and 3 touchdowns on 97 carries (8.34 YPC) in his career, while grading out above average as a runner in all 3 seasons in the league, and has added 3 touchdowns as a punt returner, but, as a wide receiver, he’s best off as a #3 receiver. He’s a nice player to have, but the Rams massively overpaid him on a 4-year, 42 million dollar extension this off-season, with still 2 years left on his rookie deal.

Even after trading away all of those draft picks, the Rams still drafted two wide receivers and for obvious reasons. Neither of them are likely to be good as a rookie though, as South Carolina’s Pharoh Cooper was a 4th round pick and Southern Missisippi’s Mike Thomas was a 6th round pick. Both could compete for playing time in arguably the league’s thinnest receiving corps though. After Britt and Austin, the next 3 wide receivers on the team in catches last season were Wes Welker (13), Stedman Bailey (12), and Brian Quick (10) and the team inexplicably didn’t add any help in free agency.

Welker is expected to retire ahead of his age 35 season and remains unsigned as of this writing, while Stedman Bailey’s NFL career is at least on hold after suffering a gunshot wound late last season. Quick, meanwhile, will compete with Pharoh Cooper and a host of other inexperienced players for the #3 wide receiver job. Being the only other wide receiver on the team with an NFL catch, he seems like the early favorite, after being re-signed for 1.75 million over 1 year this off-season.

A 2nd round pick in 2012, Quick came into the league with a lot of upside and was on a 64/973/8 pace through 6 games in his 3rd year in the league in 2014, but suffered a season ending shoulder injury. Still not fully healthy, Quick was limited to 10 catches in 13 games in 2015. He’s still never topped 25 catches in a season and has only once graded out above average, but there’s still there’s a little bit of upside here and he’s the best option they have if he can stay healthy. Wide receiver is a major position of weakness overall though.

Things aren’t any better at tight end though. Jared Cook, who made 12 starts in 16 games last season, was cut this off-season. He didn’t have a good year, but the Rams didn’t replace him, leaving the mediocre Lance Kendricks as the starter. He’s plenty experienced with 63 starts in 5 seasons in the league and was a big part of their offense as the #2 tight end in recent years, but he’s only once graded out above average. He could be pushed for snaps by 4th round rookie Tyler Higbee, but Higbee is highly unlikely to be good as a rookie. The receiving corps are a serious problem for the Rams and rookie quarterback Jared Goff.

Grade: D

Offensive Line

The Rams’ offensive line was just as bad, if not worse, than their receiving corps was last season and, like the receiving corps, they aren’t getting any reinforcements through free agency or the draft. The one thing the offensive line does have going for it is that it’s young and could be improved in 2016 as they become more experienced. Left tackle Greg Robinson was the 2nd overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft and has made 28 starts in 2 seasons in the league, but has been horrendous in both seasons, finishing 83rd out of 84 eligible offensive tackles as a rookie and 73rd out of 77 eligible offensive tackles in 2015. Robinson was regarded as raw coming out of Auburn University, but you obviously want more from your #2 overall pick than what he’s given them so far. He still has upside going into just his age 24 season, but he’s entering a make or break 3rd year in the league any way you look at it. The Rams will have to make a decision on a very expensive 5th year option next off-season.

Left guard Rodger Saffold spent the early part of his career at left tackle, but was moved inside when the Rams drafted Robinson. Even if Robinson continues to struggle, Saffold is unlikely to move back to left tackle unless an injury occurs. Saffold is no lock to stay healthy himself, missing 28 games with injury in 6 years in the league, including 11 games last season. Saffold is only going into his age 28 season so he has some bounce back potential, but he’s graded out below average in 4 of 6 seasons in the league and was horrible on 234 snaps in 2015. He may even be a downgrade from Garrett Reynolds, who was solid in Saffold’s absence last year, grading out above average. Reynolds is no guarantee to play well if Saffold gets hurt again though, as he’s graded out above average just twice in 7 years in the league and has largely been a backup throughout his career, making just 37 career starts.

Reynolds could also push to start at right guard, but incumbent 2nd year player Jamon Brown is expected to get the first shot at the starting job. He struggled mightily as a rookie, finishing 70th out of 81 eligible guards on Pro Football Focus in 9 starts before going down for the season with a broken leg. He could also face competition from Cody Wichmann, a 2015 6th round pick who actually outplayed Brown by a little bit as a rookie. He’s not a good option either though, grading out below average on 424 snaps. He’ll likely open the season as the primary backup, but could end up making starts at some point if Brown continues to struggle. It’s a position of weakness.

Center also figures to be a position of weakness, after Tim Barnes finished 29th out of 39 eligible centers in 16 starts in 2015, in the first significant action of his career. The 2011 undrafted free agent played just 282 career snaps prior to last season and is a backup caliber player, but the Rams don’t have another option, so he’ll get another chance in 2016, after being re-signed for 4.6 million over 2 years this off-season. His primary backup is 2014 7th round pick Demetrius Rhaney, an inexperienced player who struggled on 125 snaps in 2015. Rhaney could see playing time down the stretch if Barnes continues to struggle, but would likely not be an improvement.

The one bright spot on this offensive line is right tackle Rob Havenstein. Not only did the Rams get a great player in the 1st round of the 2015 NFL Draft with Gurley, they also got Havenstein in the 2nd round and he played well as a rookie, finishing 26th among offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus in 13 starts. The big 6-7 332 pounder is not really a candidate to move to the blindside because he’s not a great athlete, but he looks like he could be a solid starter on the right side for many years to come. He’s one of the very few capable players on this offense.

Grade: D

Defensive Line

With the offense struggling mightily, the Rams’ defense was the only reason they won any games, finishing 8th in rate of moving the chains allowed. Even still, they finished 30th in rate of moving the chains differential, suggesting they weren’t even as good as their 7-9 record. In fact, 5 of their 7 wins came by 8 points or fewer, while just 3 of those losses did. Their only wins by more than 8 points came at home against the Browns and 49ers, arguably the two least talented teams in the league last season. Their offense should be better with Goff coming in, but the Rams lost a lot of talent on defense this off-season, especially in the secondary, and didn’t do much to replace the departed players.

Fortunately, things are still good on the defensive line, led by 2014 1st round pick Aaron Donald, who has quickly broken out as one of the top defensive players in the NFL. He was Pro Football Focus’ #1 overall ranked interior defender in 2015, ahead of Defensive Player of the Year JJ Watt, and is on the short list of early candidates for that award going into 2016. He’s no one-year wonder either, finishing 1st among defensive tackles on Pro Football Focus as a rookie, winning the NFL’s Defensive Rookie of the Year award.

When defensive end Robert Quinn is healthy, he and Donald make a dangerous combination for opposing offenses. The 2011 1st round pick missed 8 games with injury in 2015, but had missed just 1 game in 4 seasons in the league prior to 2015 and will be a very valuable re-addition in 2016 now that he’s healthy again. After struggling in his first 2 years in the league, Quinn has been a top-11 4-3 defensive end in each of the last 3 seasons, with his best year coming in 2013, when he finished #1 at the position. He’s still in the prime of his career, only going into his age 26 season.

Chris Long was the other starting defensive end for years, but his 8-year tenure with the Rams ended this off-season, as the Rams made him a cap casualty ahead of his age 31 season. It might be addition by subtraction though, as Long was a declining, aging player who graded out well below average on 491 snaps in 2015. His replacement, William Hayes, is no spring chicken either, also going into his age 31 season, but he finally gets his first shot at a regular starting job. He’s made just 32 career starts in 8 seasons in the league, but has proven he deserves more playing time.

Hayes started a career high 11 games because of Long’s injury in 2015 and finished 13th among edge defenders on Pro Football Focus, even higher than Quinn. Despite largely being a backup through his career, Hayes has graded out above average in 6 of 8 seasons in the league and has finished in the top-14 among 4-3 defensive ends in 4 straight seasons in limited action. He was a wise re-signing on a 3-year, 21 million dollar deal this off-season and could have a breakout year in his first season as a starter in 2016, though his age is a bit of a concern.

Michael Brockers rounds out the base unit as the other starting defensive tackle inside next to Donald. Also a former 1st round pick (2012), Brockers is coming off of the best season of his career in 2015, finishing 29th among interior defenders. The 6-6 322 pounder is a great run defender and has graded out above average as a run stopper in 3 of 4 seasons in the league, but has never once graded out above average as a pass rusher. He’ll essentially platoon with free agent acquisition Dominique Easley, who will enter as an interior rusher in sub packages, directly replacing free agent departee Nick Fairley.

Easley actually comes from the same first round as Donald, but has not nearly had the same career and was surprisingly cut after just 2 seasons by the New England Patriots this off-season. He showed his first round potential last season, grading out above average, but on just 275 snaps in 11 games, after being limited to 270 snaps in 11 games as a rookie and tearing his ACL twice in college. Arguably a top-5 talent, Easley fell to the late 1st round because of his injury history and leg injuries appear to be threatening his career early. It was reportedly more than just injuries that led to Easley’s release by the Patriots and we’ll probably never get the whole story, but injuries are a definite concern long-term. If he can stay healthy, he could be a nice addition, but that’s a big if and the Rams have a depth problem at defensive tackle if he doesn’t.

The Rams also have a bit of a depth problem at defensive end with Long gone, as Eugene Sims is the 3rd defensive end and he’s struggled whenever he’s been counted on to play in recent years. The 2010 6th round pick has graded out well below average in all 6 seasons he’s been in the league and finished last season 107th out of 110 eligible edge defenders on 582 snaps. Even with a lack of good depth, it’s still one of the better defensive lines in the league.

Grade: A

Linebackers

Long isn’t the only long-time veteran the Rams parted ways with this off-season, cutting declining middle linebacker James Laurinaitis. He’ll be missed as a veteran presence on what’s now the league’s youngest roster, but the Rams won’t miss his play as it had really fallen off in recent years. He’ll be replaced inside by 2013 1st round pick Alec Ogletree, who has spent the first 3 seasons of his career at outside linebacker. Ogletree’s play outside has been shaky though, as he’s graded out below average in 3 straight seasons, and he’s coming off of a broken leg that ended his 2015 season after 4 games. He’s a great athlete, but it’s unclear if moving to middle linebacker will help him reach his potential.

Mark Barron will be the other every down linebacker for the Rams, playing every down outside, a role he took over from Ogletree full-time when he got hurt. A former safety who was a bust as a first round pick of the Buccaneers, Barron was acquired for next to nothing by the Rams during the 2014 season and moved to outside linebacker, despite being very undersized for the position at 6-2 213. The position switch worked out brilliantly though, as he finished the season 20th among linebackers on Pro Football Focus, despite his size. With Ogletree moving inside permanently, Barron is locked in outside and received a 5-year, 45 million contract as a free agent this off-season. He’s a one-year wonder who was probably overpaid, but he appears to have turned his career around and credit the Rams for figuring out how to use him.

The Rams need Ogletree to stay healthy and play well because they have basically no depth at the position. In fact, after making projected starting outside linebacker Akeem Ayers a final cut, the Rams are left with a pair of rookie undrafted free agents (Cory Littleton and Nic Grigsby) and 2015 7th round pick Bryce Hager, who only played special teams as a rookie, as their other remaining linebackers. One of those 3 players will have to start in Ayers’ old spot on the outside opposite Barron. It’s only a base package position, but it’s a major concern. Maybe they’ll bring in a veteran early this season, or at least someone who has ever played a defensive snap in the NFL. It’s an overall weak linebacking corps.

Grade: C

Secondary

As I mentioned, the Rams’ secondary suffered significant losses this off-season, losing a pair of key starters, including cornerback Janoris Jenkins, Pro Football Focus’ 26th ranked cornerback in 2015. He was overpaid on a 5-year, 62.5 million dollar deal by the Giants, but he’ll still be a big loss. Fortunately, the Rams did keep fellow starting cornerback Trumaine Johnson on the franchise tag, deciding to tag Johnson over Jenkins at the last minute. Johnson did outplay Jenkins slightly in 2015, finishing 19th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus, but he’s basically a one-year wonder. He has just 33 career starts in 4 years in the league since being drafted in the 3rd round in 2012 and last season was the first season he graded out above average since his rookie year, when he played just 366 snaps. Johnson will make 13.925 million in 2016 on the franchise tag, but did not get a long-term deal this off-season, so he’ll have to play well again to get a big contract.

Also good news for the Rams is the fact that EJ Gaines returns from a broken foot that cost him his entire 2015 season. Gaines had a breakout rookie year in 2014, finishing 29th among cornerbacks in 15 starts despite being a 6th round rookie. He’s still a one-year wonder who was not drafted high, so that rookie year could prove to be a fluke, and he’s coming off of a serious injury, but he’ll be a nice re-addition for a team that needs help at the position following the loss of Jenkins. He’s the early favorite for the starting job opposite Johnson.

Coty Sensabaugh was signed to a 3-year. 14 million dollar deal this off-season by the Rams, so he has at least a shot at the starting job, but he was most likely just signed to be insurance behind Gaines and to be the 3rd cornerback. Despite a significant salary, he’s not a very good player. He’s played at least 500 snaps in each of the last 3 seasons and has 27 career starts, but has graded out below average in 3 of 4 seasons, including a 2015 season in which he finished 89th among 111 eligible cornerbacks in 15 starts for the Titans.

LaMarcus Joyner was previously the 3rd cornerback and could still some see playing time, but the addition of Sensabaugh hurts him the most. Joyner barely played as a 2nd round rookie in 2014 and graded out below average on 730 snaps last season. He could move back to his collegiate position of safety because the Rams have a major hole there following the loss of Rodney McLeod in free agency. McLeod was Pro Football Focus’ 10th ranked safety in 2015 and the Rams did nothing to replace him. With limited draft picks, they didn’t even add a developmental prospect through the draft at the position.

Instead, Cody Davis, Christian Bryant, and Maurice Alexander will compete for McLeod’s old job and Joyner could easily end up in the mix as well. Bryant is a 2014 7th round pick who has never played a defensive snap in his career. Davis is a 2013 7th round pick who has never started in his career and who played just 14 nondescript snaps last season. Alexander is the only one who saw any significant action last season, making 5 starts and playing 419 snaps, but the 2014 4th round pick was Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst ranked safety in the first significant action of his career. He’s probably the favorite, but he’s not a good option. The Rams don’t really have a good option at the position though.

TJ McDonald is locked in as the other starter, as he has been since the first week of his rookie year. The 2013 3rd round pick has had an up and down career thus far, grading out below average both 2013 and 2015 and missing 11 games with injury in 3 years in the league. Still only going into his age 25 season, his best football may be yet to come, but he’s an inconsistent player at the very least. He’ll need a big year this year, going into the final year of his rookie contract, for a team that lost a lot of talent in the secondary this off-season.

Grade: C

Conclusion

The Rams won 7 games last season, but they were lucky to win even that many, given that many of their wins were close and many of their losses were not. They addressed their biggest need by adding a quarterback #1 overall in the draft, but had to trade away their entire draft to do so, leaving them unable to fill other holes. Besides, Goff was not a surefire top pick and could struggle as a rookie, especially with minimal talent around. They also lost several key players in free agency, including Janoris Jenkins and Rodney McLeod, and did nothing significant to replace them or add talent elsewhere. From top to bottom, it’s one of the worst rosters in the league and I don’t expect them to win very many games.

Prediction: 4-12 4th in NFC West

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San Francisco 49ers 2016 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, 49ers, Uncategorized

Quarterback

Colin Kaepernick’s career got off to a good start. The 2011 2nd round pick didn’t play much as a rookie, but took over as the starter midway through the 2012 season when Alex Smith got hurt and led a very talented 49ers team to the Super Bowl, finishing 15th among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus. In 2013, he finished 18th on a team that just came up short in the NFC Championship against the Seahawks and was given a 6-year, 114 million dollar extension ahead of the final year of his rookie contract the following off-season.

However, things got bad in a hurry for Kaepernick and the 49ers. He fell to 28th among quarterbacks in 2014 on an injury plagued team that finished 8-8 and out of the playoffs and then, after a mass exodus of talent around him in the off-season, Kaepernick finished 37th among 38 eligible quarterbacks in 2015. He completed just 59.0% of his passes for an average of 6.62 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions in 8 starts before getting benched for backup Blaine Gabbert and then being shut down for the season with injuries. Kaepernick’s deteriorating play is not the only reason why the 49ers have so quickly fallen from glory and they don’t have a ton of talent around him, but it’s a very problematic situation.

Just one year and 25 million dollars into that extension, the 49ers desperately tried to trade Kaepernick this off-season, but could not find a taker for his 11.9 million dollar salary for 2016, so he’ll return to the 49ers for another year with his 3rd head coach in as many seasons coming in, ex-Philadelphia head coach Chip Kelly. Gabbert actually outplayed Kaepernick in 2015, finishing 27th among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus, and seems to be the favorite of the new coaching staff, so he’ll begin the season as the starter. He completed 63.1% of his passes for an average of 7.20 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions in 2015.

As mediocre as Gabbert was last season, that was still easily the best season of his career. A massive bust as the 10th overall pick by the Jaguars in 2011, Gabbert lasted 3 seasons in Jacksonville, winning just 5 of 27 starts and completing 53.3% of his passes for an average of 5.61 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 24 interceptions, before getting shipped to the 49ers for a 6th round pick last 2 off-seasons ago. He didn’t see action as Kaepernick’s backup in 2014, before showing signs of life down the stretch last season.

He’s still unlikely to ever be a capable starting quarterback, but the 49ers don’t have a better option. They were widely expected to use an early pick on a quarterback in the draft, but, after Los Angeles and Philadelphia moved up for the #1 and #2 quarterbacks in the draft class, the 49ers settled for 6th round pick Jeff Driskel. Despite being a late round pick and not even making the final roster, Driskel might be more likely than Kaepernick to see starts for this team this season, assuming the 49ers can stash him on the practice squad. Kaepernick’s 14.5 million dollar 2017 salary is guaranteed for injury only and the 49ers don’t want to risk him getting injured and getting that money. They also owe him a prorated portion of 2 million dollars every game he’s on the active roster this season. The 49ers also could just cut him and hope someone else signs him because he has offset language in his contract, meaning the 49ers wouldn’t have to pay his full salary if he signed elsewhere. It’s the worst quarterback situation in the league.

Their offense finished 31st in rate of moving the chains last season and the team as a whole finished dead last in rate of moving the chains differential. Making matters worse, the 49ers didn’t really add much in free agency and enter the 2016 season with close to 47 million in available cap space remaining. Their roster looks like it needs another 45-50 million dollars worth of talent on it, as it’s one of the weakest in the NFL, but they had a very hard time getting anyone to want to sign with them this off-season. The 49ers figure to be in a position to take a quarterback early in the 2017 NFL Draft.

Grade: F

Offensive Line

Many thought that the 49ers, armed with a ton of draft picks, would move up back into the end of the first round to take this draft’s 3rd quarterback, Paxton Lynch. Instead, it was Denver (originally a possible trade destination for Kaepernick) moving up to grab Lynch, leaving the 49ers with the quarterback situation they have now. However, the 49ers did still use their arsenal of picks to move back up into the end of the first round, taking Stanford right guard Joshua Garnett, a surprise pick at 28 overall. He was expected to be a 2nd round pick and was probably a reach in the end of the first. As of this writing, he’s still working with the second team at left guard and right guard, so he may have to wait into the season to get a starting job.

Veteran Zane Beadles is currently penciled in as the starter at left guard, after being signed to 3-year, 11.75 million dollar deal in free agency, while Andrew Tiller is penciled in on the right side. Tiller, a 2012 6th round pick, flashed in the first significant action of his career last season, finishing 18th among eligible guards on Pro Football Focus on 615 snaps (7 starts). Beadles has made 94 of 96 starts in 6 seasons in the league, but has graded out below average in 4 of 6 seasons, including a 2015 season in which he finished 64th among eligible guards in 81 starts with the Jaguars, leading to his release. Garnett should take one of their jobs sooner rather than later. Beadles is likely the most vulnerable.

Marcus Martin also can play guard, but his best chance at playing time is still at center, where he’s spent most of the first 2 seasons of his career. The 2014 3rd round pick has been horrible thus far in his career though, finishing 36th out of 41 eligible centers as a rookie and 36th out of 40 eligible centers in 2015. He’ll face competition from Daniel Kilgore, who struggled on 268 snaps last season. Kilgore actually graded out above average in each of his first 4 seasons in the league from 2011-2014, but has just 10 career starts in 5 years in the league, so he’s far from proven. He may be a better option than Martin, but only by default.

At right tackle, Anthony Davis returns from his one year “retirement,” but is still listed with the 2nd team behind first team starter Trent Brown, who flashed on 187 snaps as a 7th round rookie in 2015. Given that Davis didn’t play at all last season and didn’t report until the end of July, that could remain the case into the season, giving the 2nd year player the opportunity to take the job and run with it. Davis has more upside than anyone on this offensive line. He’s only going into his age 27 season still and finished 9th among offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus in 2012 and 29th among offensive tackles in 2013, before a disappointing 2014 season and a 2015 season spent out of the league. Owed 3.625 million in 2016 on an overall weak offensive line, you have to figure he’ll get in the starting lineup at some point. He’s reportedly volunteered to play guard if it increases his chances of getting on the field and has begun taking reps there in practice.

The saving grace of this offensive line is left tackle Joe Staley, who has been with the team since they drafted him in the first round in 2007. Staley has been with the team through a lot, struggles early in his career, 3 straight NFC Championship game appearances, followed by struggles again, but has always been a great player for them. He’s the only offensive tackle in the league to finish in the top-6 among offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 4 seasons and one of 3 starters from the 49ers’ 2011 team that still remains (linebackers NaVorro Bowman and Ahmad Brooks are the other two). He single handedly boosts an offensive line that has a lot of problems around of him.

Grade: C+

Receiving Corps

Ex-Raven Torrey Smith was the 49ers’ big signing of last off-season, coming over on a 5-year, 40 million dollar deal, but he hasn’t panned out yet, grading out below average in his first year in San Francisco in 2015. He’s unlikely to ever be worth his contract, as he’s never finished higher than 37th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus in 5 years in the league. He’s a nice complementary deep threat and a capable #2 receiver, but the 49ers need him to be the #1 guy in the passing game and that’s just not the type of player he is.

With veteran Anquan Boldin, last year’s leading receiver with a 69/789/4 slash line, still unsigned as a free agent ahead of his age 36 season, snaps are very much up for grabs behind Smith. Like at quarterback, the 49ers surprisingly did not draft anyone at the wide receiver position before the 6th round, making last year’s 3rd receiver Quinton Patton the favorite to start opposite Smith. A 2013 4th round pick, Patton was underwhelming on 151 career snaps prior to last season and finished just below average on 424 snaps in 2015. Unless he has a breakout year in his 4th year in the league, he’s nothing more than a capable 3rd receiver and a weak starting option.

Veteran Jeremy Kerley is expected to be the 3rd receiver, but he just came over via trade from the Detroit Lions in late August, after 3rd year slot receiver Bruce Ellington went down for the season with injury. Kerley isn’t terrible, but has graded out below average in 3 of 5 seasons in the league and was limited to mediocre 223 snaps in 2015. Also just coming over via trade is Rod Streater, previously of the Chiefs, who is also in the mix for snaps. Streater, a 2012 undrafted free agent, was a league average receiver for the first 2 years of his career, catching 99 passes for 1472 yards and 7 touchdowns in 32 games with the Raiders. However, he’s been limited to just 10 catches in 4 games over the past 2 seasons by a combination of injury and poor performance. There’s some bounce back potential here, but they can’t rely on him.

The tight ends are not much better. Garrett Celek, Vance McDonald, and Blake Bell all saw playing time there last season and figure to split time again in 2016. Celek was the best of the bunch last season, grading out above average on 399 snaps, and figures to get the first shot to start in 2016 after getting a 4-year, 14 million dollar extension this off-season. However, last year was the first significant action of his career since going undrafted in 2012, so he’s probably not a great starting option.

McDonald actually led the position in snaps played last season with 473, but he graded out below average. McDonald has never graded out above average in 3 years in the league as a pass catcher, but has graded out above average as a run blocker in 2 of 3 seasons, since going in the 2nd round in 2013. Bell, meanwhile, was the worst of the bunch last season, finishing 65th out of 67 eligible tight ends on 353 snaps as a 4th round rookie. He could be better in his 2nd year in the league though, especially since the converted quarterback is still just going into his 3rd year as a tight end. He has good upside, but may never reach it. It’s a very weak receiving corps.

Grade: D

Running Backs

Carlos Hyde missed 9 games with injury, but still led the 49ers in carries with 115. He was playing well prior to going down, rushing for 470 yards and 3 touchdowns on those carries, a solid 4.09 YPC average despite a weak offense around him, and finishing 19th among running backs on Pro Football Focus. The 2014 2nd round pick is unproven with just 198 career carries, but his 4.06 career YPC average is solid all things considered and he has a chance to have a breakout year on an otherwise poor offense in 2016 if he can stay healthy. He’ll be a welcome re-addition.

Hyde’s return is especially important because 49er running backs other than Hyde rushed for just 621 yards on 196 carries last season (3.14 YPC). Shaun Draughn was the starter down the stretch with Hyde out and finished 2nd on the team in carries with 76, but turned them into just 263 yards (3.46 YPC) and 1 touchdown and finished well below average as a runner on Pro Football Focus. He did flash as a pass catcher, catching 25 passes for 175 yards and finishing 17th among running backs on Pro Football Focus in pass catching grade, so he figures to see passing down snaps in 2016, as Hyde has just 23 career catches. However, Draughn has had just 202 touches in 5 years in the league, so he’s not a reliable option.

Despite the 49ers’ issues at running back without Hyde, they still finished with a respectable 3.96 yards per carry average as a team, but that was mostly because quarterbacks Colin Kaepernick and Blaine Gabbert both did a good job on the ground. Kaepernick rushed for 256 yards and 1 touchdown on 45 carries (5.69 YPC), while Gabbert rushed for 185 yards and 1 touchdown on 32 carries (5.78 YPC). Quarterback runs have always been a part of Chip Kelly’s offense as long as he has a mobile quarterback. Everyone knows about Kaepernick’s abilities as a runner, but Gabbert has underrated athleticism as well, so whoever wins the starting quarterback job should have plenty of opportunity to take off and run, especially on a team with few other ways to move the ball.

Grade: B-

Defensive Line

The 49ers were obvious losers when Los Angeles and Philadelphia moved up to take quarterbacks, but they still got a great player 7th overall, taking Oregon defensive end DeForest Buckner, who seemed like a likely top-3 pick before the trades. Pro Football Focus’ 2nd ranked overall prospect in the 2016 NFL draft class, Buckner figures to be an every down starter from the word go. At 6-7 291 pounds, he’s a perfect fit for the 49ers’ 3-4 defense and compares favorably to Calais Campbell long-term. He might not be great right away as a rookie, but he should certainly be a contender for Defensive Rookie of the Year.

He’ll start opposite last year’s 1st round pick, another ex-Oregon defensive end, Arik Armstead. The 17th overall pick in 2015, Armstead was not as good of a prospect as Buckner, but he flashed on 384 snaps as a rookie, finishing 28th among interior defenders on Pro Football Focus, and has proven himself worthy of a larger role. He has breakout potential in his 2nd year in the league and he and Buckner have the potential to form a formidable duo for years to come. There may be growing pains in 2016 though.

Nose tackle Ian Williams was their best defensive lineman in 2015, finishing 18th among interior defenders on Pro Football Focus on 659 snaps, excelling as a run stopper, finishing 11th at his position in pure run grade. The 49ers were set to re-sign him to a 5-year, 30 million dollar deal this off-season, but he ended up failing his physical and needing off-season ankle surgery. He was still kept on a 1-year, 3 million dollar deal with incentives worth up to 6 million, but ultimately ended up being put on injured reserve, ending his season before it started.

Fortunately, the 49ers do have decent depth on the defensive line. Glenn Dorsey returns from injury, after missing 22 games over the past 2 seasons combined, and he can play both nose tackle and defensive end in base packages on this 3-man defensive line. However, he’s going into his age 31 season and has graded out above average just twice in 7 seasons in the league. On top of that, he’s missed a total of 34 games with injury over the past 4 seasons, so he’s no lock to be healthy either. If he is, he’s better off as a versatile starter than a starter.

Quinton Dial is another player who can play either inside or outside in base packages who figures to see at least a rotational role. Dial graded out above average in 6 starts in 2014, the first significant action of his career, then led the 49ers’ defensive line with 662 snaps played last season, finishing just below average in the process. He won’t see nearly that many snaps in 2016 with Buckner coming in, but he’s still a valuable reserve who figures to have a role. This is the 49ers’ strongest unit, even though it has problems inside and inexperience outside.

Grade: B

Linebackers

As I mentioned, linebackers NaVorro Bowman and Ahmad Brooks are the only other starters remaining from the 49ers’ breakout 2011 team. A 48-game starter from 2011-2013, Bowman finished in the top-6 among middle linebackers in all 3 seasons, but suffered a devastating knee injury in the 49ers’ loss to the Seahawks to the NFC Championship, which cost him his entire 2014 season. Bowman returned to start all 16 games in 2015, but was not the same, finishing below average. He posted impressive tackle stats and did well against the run, but was not nearly the coverage athlete he used to be. Another year removed from the injury, still only going into his age 28 season, there’s bounce back potential for Bowman in 2016, but it’s also possible he’s never the same after the injury.

Brooks, meanwhile, has also declined, though age is the biggest factor with him, as he heads into his age 32 season. Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2012, Brooks has finished below average in 3 straight seasons, including 88th out of 110 eligible edge defenders in 2015. He’s still penciled into a starter role, but he’ll face competition from 2nd year player Eli Harold and converted defensive end Tank Carradine. Harold flashed against the run on 344 total snaps as a 3rd round rookie in 2015, but didn’t show much pass rush. He’s likely in for a bigger role in 2016 regardless of whether or not he wins a starting job.

Carradine, meanwhile, was a 2013 2nd round pick, but has been limited to 367 snaps in 3 seasons in the league. That’s partially because of injury, but largely because the coaching staff didn’t trust him enough to play him much. He’s always flashed as a pass rusher, but didn’t have the strength to hold up against the run as a defensive lineman in a 3-man front. He’s slimmed down to around 6-4 265, closer to his collegiate weight, to play outside linebacker for a make or break 4th year in the league, the final year of his rookie contract.

Both Carradine and Harold could see significant snaps early in the season as Aaron Lynch, the other starting outside linebacker, was suspended for the first 4 games of the season for failing a test for performance enhancing drugs. Lynch will be a big loss for the 49ers early in the year, as he was one of their best defensive players last season. He finished 29th among edge defenders on Pro Football Focus and was easily the 49ers’ best pass rusher. A 2014 5th round pick, Lynch has graded out above average in each of his first 2 seasons in the league and could have a big year in his 3rd year in the league, only his age 23 season, but he’ll have to wait for week 5 for his season to start.

At the other middle linebacker spot next to Bowman, Gerald Hodges and Michael Wilhoite will compete for the starting job. Wilhoite has made 28 starts over the past 2 seasons, but has graded out below average in both seasons, including dead last out of 97 eligible linebackers in 12 starts in 2015. Hodges, acquired from Minnesota mid-season via trade, made 4 starts in Wilhoite’s absence and was better, but only by default, finishing 75th at the position on the season. Still, while Wilhoite has never graded out above average in his 5 year career, since going undrafted in 2011, Hodges flashed on 495 snaps in 2014, finishing 9th among 4-3 outside linebackers with the Vikings that season, so he at least has upside. Hodges seems like the obvious choice, but it’s reportedly a tight battle, so it’s unclear what direction they’ll go in. There’s some talent in this linebacking corps, but not a ton.

Grade: C+

Secondary

Cornerback Tramaine Brock was another one of the few bright spots on this San Francisco defense last season, making a team high 15 starts and finishing 36th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. He was even better in 2013, when he finished 14th at his position on 678 snaps in 16 games (7 starts), with an injury plagued 2014 season (3 games) in between. The 2010 undrafted free agent only has 24 career starts in 6 years in the league, but he’s still only going into his age 28 season and, as long as he’s healthy, he should be locked into one of the starting cornerback jobs in 2016.

The other cornerback jobs are up for grabs, but Jimmie Ward is the favorite to start opposite Brock. Ward was actually the 49ers’ highest ranked cornerback last season, finishing just one spot above Brock in 35th, though he made just 8 starts in 16 games. A 2014 1st round pick, Ward struggled mightily on 270 snaps in 8 games in an injury plagued rookie season in 2014, but had a bit of a breakout year in 2015 and could take another step forward in 2015. A converted safety, Ward is now a full-time cornerback and likely the 49ers’ #2 cornerback in his 3rd year in the league in 2016.

That would leave Dontae Johnson and a pair of rookies competing for the 3rd cornerback job. Johnson didn’t see much action in 2015 as the 4th cornerback for most of the season, but graded out above average on 367 snaps. He also played 512 snaps as a 4th round rookie in 2014, grading out right around average in both seasons. He’s likely the favorite for the job and would play outside opposite Brock in sub packages, with Ward inside to cover the slot, where he’s at his best.

As mentioned, the 49ers also drafted a pair of cornerbacks, taking Mississippi State’s Will Redmond in the 3rd and LSU’s Rashard Robinson in the 4th. Neither Redmond nor Robinson figure to be much of a factor as rookies though. Redmond is coming off of an October torn ACL and might have essentially a medical redshirt rookie year, while Robinson didn’t play football at all last year after being kicked off of the team at LSU for a violation of team rules and had just 8 collegiate starts. Both are much more long-term picks than anything.

Along with Brock and Ward, the 49ers have another solid starter in this secondary in 4th year safety Eric Reid. A 2013 1st round pick, Reid hasn’t become a star or anything yet, but has made 47 starts in 3 seasons in the league and has graded out above average in 2 of those 3 seasons, including a 36th place finish in 2015. The 49ers made the obvious decision to pick up his 5th year option for 2017 and will work to try to re-sign him over the next calendar year. He’s someone they couldn’t afford to lose, as he’s one of their best defensive players and could have a breakout year in his 4th year in the league in 2016.

Antoine Bethea returns to start opposite Reid, after missing 9 games with injury in 2015. Bethea played poorly on 443 snaps, but was actually a little bit better than backup Jaquiski Tartt, who finished 80th out of 89 eligible safeties on Pro Football Focus on 721 snaps. Bethea was a solid player in his prime, but is going into his age 32 season and has graded out below average in 3 of the last 4 seasons. Owed a non-guaranteed 5.75 million in his age 33 season in 2017, this could easily be his final year in San Francisco. Tartt, as poorly as he played last season, is still the future starter at the position, after being drafted in the 2nd round in 2015. It’s a secondary with some young talent, but still noticeable flaws.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

This is once again one of the least talented teams in the league. They finished dead last in rate of moving the chains differential in 2015 and, in a league with few truly bad teams, are the favorite to finish dead last in that metric again in 2016. They managed to win 5 wins in 2015, but might not be so lucky in 2016. Just 1 of their 5 wins came by more than 6 points, with 2 coming in overtime, while just 2 of their 11 losses came by 6 points or fewer and their average margin of defeat was 16.45 points per game. With 46 million in used cap space and no real impact additions this off-season, 2-4 wins and high draft pick seems like the most likely outcome of this season. 

Prediction: 4-12 3rd in NFC West

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Seattle Seahawks 2016 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Quarterback

In the past 4 seasons, the Seahawks have gone 26-6 in the final 8 games of the regular season, as opposed to 20-12 in the first 8 games. It makes sense that an organization that is as well run from top to bottom as the Seahawks’ organization is would be able to adapt on the fly better than most teams and figure out how to play at a high level by mid-season. Last year, it was the offense that carried them down the stretch, as they won 6 of their final 8 games to make the playoffs as a wild card, following a 4-4 start. They moved the chains at a 68.24% rate in their first 8 games, but that jumped to 81.18% over the next 8 games and they finished 3rd in rate of moving the chains on the season. Despite “only” being a 10-6 wild card, the Seahawks entered the playoffs 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential and looked like a real contender once again despite the rocky start, but fell a touchdown short in their divisional round playoff loss in Carolina.

As you can probably imagine, a lot of their strong play down the stretch was the result of Russell Wilson, who finished as a top-6 quarterback on Pro Football Focus for the 3rd time in 4 years in the league in 2015. Wilson completed 68.1% of his passes for an average of 8.33 YPA, 34 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions on the season and was an MVP candidate, but he was especially good in those final 8 games, completing 67.5% of his passes for an average of 8.62 YPA, 25 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. The dual threat quarterback also added 553 yards and another 1 touchdown on 103 carries (5.37 YPC) on the season.

As crazy as those numbers might seem, those are pretty par for the course for him. In 4 years in the league, Wilson has completed 64.7% of his passes for an average of 8.05 YPA, 106 touchdowns, and 34 interceptions, while adding 2430 yards and 12 touchdowns on 411 carries (5.91 YPC) on the ground. He’s had a good defense and running game supporting him, but he’s managed to put up those numbers despite inconsistent play from both his receivers and his offensive line throughout his career. A mere 3rd round pick in 2012, Wilson is one of the biggest draft steals of all-time and was kept on a 4-year, 87.6 million dollar extension last off-season ahead of his contract year. He’s one of the top few quarterbacks in the entire NFL.

The one concern is the backup quarterback spot. Wilson hasn’t missed a start in 4 years in the league, but the Seahawks only have undrafted free agent Trevone Boykin behind Wilson right now. Boykin was a talented enough prospect to get drafted and only fell because of off-the-field reasons, but the dropoff from Wilson to Boykin is probably the biggest starter to backup dropoff at quarterback in the NFL. The Seahawks were probably considering bringing back veteran backup Tarvaris Jackson this off-season if Boykin struggled in the off-season program, but that’s no longer an option after Jackson’s recent domestic violence arrest. They may look to add another veteran backup quarterback, but the market is pretty dried up at this point. They’ll obviously be hoping Wilson can stay healthy once again.

Grade: A

Running Backs

Of course, it wasn’t just Russell Wilson who played at a high level down the stretch. Running back Marshawn Lynch uncharacteristically struggled last season, rushing for 417 yards and 3 touchdowns on 111 carries (3.76 YPC), while missing 9 games with injury, including each of the Seahawks’ final 7 games. His injury was actually a bit of a blessing in disguise, as it allowed rookie backup Thomas Rawls to take over as the starting running back mid-season and he rushed for 830 yards and 4 touchdowns on 147 carries, a league leading 5.65 yards per carry average among eligible running backs. Rawls finished the season 12th among running backs on Pro Football Focus, including 4th in pure rushing grade. When he broke his leg week 14 and missed the rest of the season, it was a huge blow to this team’s chances in the playoffs.

Lynch retired ahead of his age 30 season this off-season, so this is Thomas Rawls’ job now. Unfortunately, he missed much of the off-season program rehabbing from that broken leg. He’s fully expected to play week 1, but the long rehab is a concern for a player who is trying to repeat the improbable year he had as an undrafted rookie in 2015 and do it over a 16 game season. He’s certainly a promising young running back who could put up big numbers in a big role, but he’s still not a reliable bet.

When Rawls went down last season, Christine Michael took over as the starting running back. He wasn’t as good as Rawls, which hurt them in the playoffs, but he rushed for 182 rushing yards on 39 carries in those final 3 regular season games (4.67 YPC), after coming over mid-season from the Cowboys. He was originally drafted by the Seahawks in the 2nd round in 2013, but work ethic issues limited him to 52 carries in 2 years in Seattle and ended up getting him sent to Dallas for a late round pick last off-season. In Dallas, he barely played before ending up back in Seattle via waivers and impressing down the stretch. He’ll be Rawls’ primary backup this season. He’s unproven with just 106 career carries, but has a ton of talent and has averaged 4.69 yards per carry in the regular season in his career.

The Seahawks also used a 3rd round pick on Notre Dame running back CJ Prosise, but he’ll work primarily as a passing down back as a rookie. Neither Rawls nor Michaels is a good pass catcher (9 and 4 career catches respectively), while Prosise is an ex-wide receiver who converted full-time to running back just last season. Prosise could catch 40 balls, but would need both Rawls and Michael to get injured to see significant carries as a rookie. Russell Wilson is also usually good for about 100 carries and 600 yards on the ground as well, so this is definitely still a run heavy team. Their running backs are unproven, but promising.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

Along with Wilson and Rawls, wide receiver Doug Baldwin played at a very high level down the stretch, catching 47 passes for 724 yards and 12 touchdowns in the Seahawks’ final 8 games, to finish the season with 78 catches for 1069 yards and 14 touchdowns. It’s his first career 1000 yard season, but, while it was the best season of his career, he’s not really a one-year wonder. In 4 seasons prior to 2015, he had caught 196 passes for 2757 yards and 15 touchdowns, maxing out at 825 yards in 2014. Those numbers are unimpressive, but were kept down by this run heavy offense. Baldwin actually averaged an impressive 1.84 yards per route run over that time period and finished in the top-27 among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus in all 4 seasons.

His big numbers in 2015 are even more impressive when you take into account that they were still a run heavy team last season, attempting just 489 passes. Baldwin caught 75% of his 104 targets and averaged 10.28 yards per target, making Wilson to Baldwin one of the most effective quarterback/wide receiver duos in the NFL. Despite “only” finishing 21st in the NFL in receiving yards, Baldwin finished the year 7th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus. He might not be quite as good again in 2016, but the former undrafted free agent is a legitimate #1 receiver.

As I mentioned, Wilson has dealt with inconsistencies in his receiving corps throughout his career. In fact, Baldwin was the first Seahawks receiver to top 900 yards in a season since 2009. However, right now he has a solid group, probably the best of his career. It’s not just Doug Baldwin, as Jermaine Kearse and Tyler Lockett are solid complementary wide receivers. Kearse made 16 starts last season and was re-signed on a 3-year, 13.5 million dollar deal as a free agent this off-season, but Lockett is reportedly the favorite for the #2 job opposite Baldwin in 2016.

That makes sense. Lockett was the better of the two in 2015, grading out 32nd among wide receivers on 664 snaps as a 3rd round rookie, and has proven he deserves more playing time. Kearse is not a bad player though, with 36 starts in 4 seasons in the league since being drafted in the 7th round in the 2012 NFL Draft and 2 seasons in which he’s graded out above average, including 2015. He’s a solid #3 receiver and the contract the Seahawks signed him to this off-season was not a bad deal. It’s a nice trio of wide receivers.

The way the Seahawks played down the stretch is even more impressive when you take into account that they lost tight end Jimmy Graham for the season a torn patellar tendon week 12, after trading starting center Max Unger and a first round pick to New Orleans for him last off-season. Graham was a weird fit in Seattle because he’s not much of a run blocker and this is a run heavy team, but he still caught 48 passes for 605 yards and 2 touchdowns on 368 pass snaps in 11 games and finished 7th among tight ends in pass catching grade (11th overall).

His injury is still a major concern though, as the list of players who have torn their patellar tendon and returned as good as they were before is basically non-existent. Giants wide receiver Victor Cruz still hasn’t played since tearing his in the middle of the 2014 season. He looked like he’d be ready for the 2015 season, but ended up missing the year with a variety of leg injuries. It would be a shame if the injury ruined his career, because he’s been a top-15 tight end in each of the last 5 seasons, but he’s far from a guarantee to bounce back, already going into his age 30 season. The Seahawks will certainly be hoping he can make close to a full recovery.

In his absence, Luke Willson was the starter, starting 7 games on the season overall. He’s not nearly the pass catcher that Graham is, but he is a solid all-around player who graded out above average on 451 snaps in 2015, after grading out around average in the first 2 years of his career in 2013 and 2014. The 6-5 252 pounder is the Seahawks’ best run blocking tight end, so he should have a role as the #2 tight end even if Graham is healthy. The Seahawks also drafted Ohio State tight end Nick Vannett in the 3rd round in April as insurance. He could see significant rookie year snaps if Graham can’t play. If Graham can play and plays well, this is one of the best receiving corps in the NFL, but it’s a solid group regardless.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

While the Seahawks’ receiving corps is the best it’s ever been in the Russell Wilson era, the Seahawks’ offensive line is the worst it’s ever been in the Russell Wilson era, and it isn’t usually that good. They lost right tackle Breno Giacomini two off-seasons ago, left guard James Carpenter and center Max Unger last off-season, and then left tackle Russell Okung and right guard JR Sweezy this off-season. None of those players were great, but they didn’t really do anything to replace them and have arguably the worst offensive line in football as a result. They’ve always preferred to focus on other parts of the roster and mask their offensive line’s flaws with their system, Russell Wilson’s mobility, and legendary offensive line coach Tom Cable’s coaching, but they might have gone too far this time.

They don’t have a single offensive lineman who is making more than 3 million dollars this season and that’s going to be noticeable on the field. They used a first round pick on an offensive lineman, taking Texas A&M’s Germain Ifedi, but he could struggle as a rookie and was probably overdrafted. Pro Football Focus had a 6th round grade on him going into the draft. That may be an exaggeration, but most expected him to be a 2nd or 3rd round pick and he’s very raw in pass protection. He’s also moving positions, as he’ll play right guard, after spending last season at left tackle at Texas A&M. At left guard, fellow rookie Rees Odhiambo will compete with last year’s 4th round pick, Mark Glowinski, for the starting job. Glowinski played just 73 snaps as a rookie.

Ex-right tackle Garry Gilliam will move over to the left side with Okung gone, after struggling mightily as a 16-game starter at right tackle in 2015. The 2014 undrafted free agent was Pro Football Focus’ 63rd ranked offensive tackle out of 77 eligible in the first significant action in his career and is probably the worst starting left tackle in football. The Seahawks like his upside, but I’m skeptical. Justin Britt is the other 16-game starter who returns for the Seahawks, going into his 3rd year in the league with 32 starts already under his belt.

However, he too struggled mightily in 2015, finishing 75th among 81 eligible guards on Pro Football Focus. He was even worse last season than he was as a 2nd round rookie in 2014, when he finished 74th out of 84 eligible offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus as a 16-game starter at right tackle. He’s on his 3rd position in as many years in the league, as he’ll start at center this season. He’s no guarantee to be any better there, especially considering he didn’t even play the position at the collegiate level. Moving him inside seems like a desperation move.

Free agent acquisition J’Marcus Webb figures to start at right tackle, coming over from Oakland on a 2-year, 5.75 million dollar deal. He’s made 71 starts in 6 seasons in the league, including all 16 last season, but he has never once graded out above average. He wasn’t awful last season, playing both right tackle and right guard, but he’s a mediocre starter at best. Fellow free agent acquisition Bradley Sowell is reportedly also in the mix for a starting job, but that’s really reaching deep. Sowell hasn’t made a start since 2013, when he made 12 starts and was Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked offensive tackle. It’s also possible 2015 4th round pick Terry Poole sees snaps in his 2nd year in the league in 2016, after spending his entire rookie year on the bench. It’s a weak offensive line that figures to make life difficult for the rest of this offense.

Grade: F

Defensive Line

Of course, the defense was also great yet again in 2015, finishing 6th in rate of moving the chains allowed. They were led by the usual suspects, including defensive end Michael Bennett, who has become one of the best in the league at his position. He’s been a top-7 4-3 defensive end on Pro Football Focus in each of the past 5 seasons and finished last season 3rd at the position. He’s going into his age 31 season, so his age is starting to become a concern, but he should have another couple strong seasons left in the tank at least. The big 6-4 274 pounder can line up anywhere on the defensive line and often rushes the passer from the interior in sub packages.

Because of that, there are still plenty of snaps for Cliff Avril and Frank Clark to both rush the passer off the edge in sub packages. Clark flashed on 364 snaps as a 2nd round rookie in 2015, grading out above average, but Avril is expected to keep the starting job, after finishing last season 7th among 4-3 defensive ends as a 16-game starter. An 8-year NFL veteran, Avril has finished in the top-13 among 4-3 defensive ends in 3 straight seasons and has graded out above average as a pass rusher in 7 of 8 seasons in the league, but last season was the first year the undersized 6-3 252 pounder graded out above average against the run as well. His age is also becoming a concern, as he goes into his age 30 season, but he should be effective rushing the passer off the edge again in 2016, at the very least.

Clark, meanwhile, will play a significant role as the 3rd defensive end, with Bennett often moving inside. Clark essentially takes over for the departed Bruce Irvin as the nickel rusher. Clark also could replace Irvin at outside linebacker in base packages. Irvin played well in a hybrid outside linebacker/defensive end role last season and Clark, after reportedly losing 17 pounds and slimming down to 6-3 260 this off-season, could play outside linebacker in base packages as well. He’d move to defensive end in sub packages when a 5th defensive back comes in and move Bennett inside. Clark figures to have a significant role in his 2nd year in the league regardless and looked up to the task as a rookie.

In base packages, the Seahawks will start veteran Ahtyba Rubin and rookie Jarran Reed inside at defensive tackle. Rubin was re-signed on a 3-year, 12 million dollar deal this off-season, while Reed will replaced departed veteran free agent Brandon Mebane, who signed with the Chargers this off-season. He’s only a two-down player at this point, but he was arguably the best run stopper in the draft and was Pro Football Focus’ 20th ranked prospect, so he was a good value in the middle of the 2nd.

Rubin, meanwhile, is not a terrible player, but has graded out below average in every season since 2009 and there’s no reason to expect that to change in his age 30 season in 2016. Tony McDaniel is also in the mix for snaps, but the 10-year NFL veteran has only twice finished above average on Pro Football Focus. He finished 101st out of 123 eligible interior defensive linemen last season with the Buccaneers and is unlikely to get better, going into his age 31 season in 2016. Despite depth problems at defensive tackle, it’s a deep, talented defensive line once again.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

As mentioned, defensive end Frank Clark is a candidate for the two-down linebacker job, replacing Bruce Irvin completely. The Seahawks other option is starting Michael Morgan and keeping Clark 100% at defensive end as a sub package edge rusher, which they certainly could do. Morgan is a career special teamer with just 3 starts in 5 seasons in the league though, since going undrafted in 2011. Fortunately, it’s just a two down position, so the winner of that battle won’t have too tough of a job.

KJ Wright and Bobby Wagner remain as the every down linebackers, at outside linebacker and inside linebacker respectively. They’re as good as any duo in the NFL. Wright has started 72 of 76 games in 5 seasons in the league, despite falling to the 4th round in 2011, and has been a top-17 4-3 outside linebacker in each of his first 5 seasons in the league, with his best seasons coming in 2014 (6th) and 2015 (4th). Another strong season seems likely for him, only going into his age 27 season.

Wagner, meanwhile, is actually coming off of a down year, finishing “just” 18th among middle linebackers, but he was a top-12 middle linebacker in each of his first 3 seasons in the league from 2012-2014 and was 5th as recently as 2014. He’s an obvious bounce back candidate, going into his age 26 season and his 5th year in the league. Since the Seahawks drafted him in the 2nd round in 2012, he’s started 55 of 64 games over those 4 seasons. He and Wright are a great pair.

Grade: A-

Secondary

The Seahawks have an incredible secondary as well, led by cornerback Richard Sherman, who is probably the best cornerback in the NFL. He “only” finished 3rd among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus in 2015, but is the only cornerback in the NFL to finish in the top-5 at the position in 4 straight seasons. He’s also made all 64 starts over those 4 seasons and has never missed a game in 5 seasons in the league, since the Seahawks stole him in the 5th round of the 2011 NFL Draft.

There are some that would argue that safety Earl Thomas is more important to this defense. I wouldn’t make that argument, but he’s certainly one of the best safeties in the NFL. He’s made all 96 starts in 6 years in the league since the Seahawks drafted him in the first round in 2010, and he’s played well all along. He has graded out above average in all 6 seasons in the league and has finished in the top-10 in 4 of 6 seasons, including a career best 3rd in 2015. He and Sherman are both young, going into their age 27 and 28 season respectively, both signed through 2018, and should be a dominant duo for the foreseeable future.

On the other hand, Kam Chancellor, the other starting safety, is coming off of a down year. He didn’t play horribly, but he finished 22nd among safeties, his lowest rank in 5 seasons as a starter. It’s a bit of a self-inflicted wound, as Chancellor foolishly tried to hold out for an extension with 3 years remaining on his current contract. Chancellor missed the entire off-season program and the first 2 games of the season, both close losses for the Seahawks, losing two game checks in the process. When he finally gave it up, it took him a little bit to get back into the flow of things and he dealt with injury issues down the stretch that limited him to a career low 11 games. He’s been present this off-season and, now healthy, is an obvious bounce back candidate. He was a top-20 safety in every season from 2011-2014, maxing out at 5th in 2012.

The Seahawks really lack cornerback depth behind Sherman though and don’t have a good option to start across from him. Cary Williams began the season as the starter opposite Sherman, but got cut by mid-season, leaving 2012 undrafted free agent DeShawn Shead to start down the stretch and into the playoffs. Shead struggled though, finishing 93rd out of 111 eligible cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus on 616 snaps in the first significant action of his career. He still figures to open the season as the starter, despite his 2015 struggles.

Nickel cornerback Jeremy Lane is the unknown of the group. He’s certainly better than both Shead and Browner when he’s healthy, but has been limited to just 13 games over the past 2 seasons due to injury and has played in just 41 of a possible 64 games in his career. He’s also only played 830 regular season snaps in his career, since being drafted in the 6th round in 2012, and has just 6 starts over that time period. He’s graded out above average in all 4 seasons he’s been in the league, but injuries and inexperience are major concerns for him.

The Seahawks don’t seem to share those concerns, giving him a 4-year, 23 million dollar deal to keep him off the open market this off-season, a very risky deal that could pay off if he stays healthy and continues to play at a high level over a larger number of snaps. Those are both far from guarantees though. He’ll begin the season as the slot cornerback, but it wouldn’t be a shock if they gave him a shot as a starter if Shead continues to struggle, considering they essentially paid starter’s money to keep him. The Legion of Boom is not without flaws, but is still one of the best secondaries in the NFL.

Grade: A

Conclusion

The Seahawks have noticeable problems on the offensive line, but have the most skill position talent around Russell Wilson that they’ve ever had, with Thomas Rawls, Doug Baldwin, Tyler Lockett, Jermaine Kearse, and possible Jimmy Graham. Wilson is one of the best quarterbacks in the league and played probably the best football of his young career down the stretch last season. The offensive line keep them from their potential, but they have a great defense as well and once again have one of the most talented rosters in the league. In a top heavy NFC, they’re one of the top few teams and should have no problem making the playoffs for the 5th straight season.

Prediction: 11-5 2nd in NFC West

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Arizona Cardinals 2016 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Cardinals, Uncategorized

Quarterback

Many thought Cardinals’ quarterback Carson Palmer was done at this point last year. He had graded out above average in each of the last 6 seasons, but was coming off of the 2nd torn ACL of his career and going into his age 36 season, so the odds were against him. Instead, he had arguably the best season of his career, completing 63.7% of his passes for an average of 8.70 YPA, 35 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, a career high 104.6 QB rating for the 13-year veteran. His 4th place finish among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus was also a career best. He did play well in 6 games in 2014 before the injury, completing 62.9% of his passes for an average of 7.26 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, leading the Cardinals to a 73.58% rate of moving the chains in the process, but that jumped to a league best 77.23% in 2015.

It’s hard to see him repeating the best season of his career in his age 37 season, but quarterbacks like Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Brett Favre, and Peyton Manning have proven in recent years that you can play quarterback in today’s NFL effectively into your late 30s. You’re definitely a riskier bet in your late 30s, but Palmer still has great talent around him and is a perfect fit for Arizona’s offense, which is led by head coach and quarterback guru Bruce Arians, who has really revitalized the veteran Palmer’s career in 3 seasons together in Arizona. This is a talented team from top to bottom that has the ability to compete for a Super Bowl again in 2016, after a 13-3 season in 2015, but the bedrock of their recent turnaround has been Palmer and Arians.

Unfortunately, Palmer completely melted down in the NFC Championship game last year, completing just 23 of 40 for 235 yards, 1 touchdown, and 4 interceptions in a 49-15 loss in Carolina. It was easily the worst game of his season at the worst time, but one game does not define a whole season. The Cardinals finished last season 1st in rate of moving the chains differential in 2015 and enter 2016 with a similarly strong roster that has the potential to do what last year’s team couldn’t. Much depends on Palmer fighting off Father Time for one more year.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

The offensive unit that’s seen the biggest improvement in recent years is the offensive line, which used to be a huge problem for many years in Arizona. The offensive line gets even better this season with the addition of veteran guard Evan Mathis. Like Palmer, Mathis’ age is becoming a concern, but he’s quietly been one of the best guards in the league over the past few seasons. Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked guard in 2015, Mathis has been a top-3 guard on in each of the past 5 seasons, the only player in the league who can say that. He should have another strong year or two left in him, but that’s obviously not a guarantee at his age. A long-time left guard, Mathis will play right guard in Arizona, a huge problem position last season.

Right tackle was a bit of a problem position in 2015 as well. The Cardinals drafted Florida offensive tackle DJ Humphries in the first round of the 2015 NFL Draft, but he was a healthy scratch in all 16 games, including the 4 games in which starter Bobby Massie was suspended. Massie is gone as a free agent this off-season, so Humphries only has to beat out Earl Watford, who started in Massie’s absence last season. The 2013 4th round pick did well as a run blocker, but struggled in pass protection and shouldn’t be hard for Humphries to beat out in his 2nd year in the league; Watford has just 2 career starts and projects as a career backup. Humphries may struggle with growing pains in his first year as a starter in 2016, but he’s still only going into his age 23 season and he has tremendous upside. Massie graded out below average last season, so it wouldn’t be hard for Humphries to be an improvement.

Center was a problem position in 2015 as well and remains their only real problem position. Veteran center Lyle Sendlein has started 124 games at center in the last 9 seasons, including 15 last season, but he was not brought back ahead of his age 32 season this off-season. A solid player in his prime, Sendlein’s effectiveness has declined steadily with age and he finished last season 27th out of 39 eligible centers on Pro Football Focus. He’ll be replaced by either veteran journeyman AQ Shipley or 4th round rookie Evan Brohm.

Brohm figures to struggle if he has to play, but Shipley has flashed in limited action in his career. His longest extended stretch of playing time came in 2013 at left guard, where he struggled mightily, finishing 66th among 81 eligible guards on Pro Football Focus in 9 starts. However, he’s made 13 starts at center in 2012, 2014, and 2015 combined and graded out above average in all 3 of those seasons. It remains to be seen if he can translate that to a full season as a starting center and he becomes a full-time starter for the first time in his career in his age 30 season, but he’ll get the first shot at it. It won’t be hard for him to be better Sendlein.

The left side is where this offensive line’s biggest strength is, as recent free agent acquisitions Jared Veldheer and Mike Iupati are coming off of strong seasons at left tackle and left guard respectively. Iupati signed on a 5-year, 40 million dollar deal last off-season, coming over from divisional rival San Francisco, where he spent the first 5 seasons of his career after they drafted him in the 1st round in 2010. Iupati was Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked guard in 2015 and has finished in the top-14 among guards in 5 of 6 seasons in the NFL. He was a nice addition at a reasonable rate.

Veldheer is someone they bought low on, signing him to a 5-year, 35 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago, following a 2013 season in which he was limited to 5 mediocre starts by a torn biceps. That contract looks like an obvious steal now though. Aside from 2013, Veldheer hasn’t missed a game in his 6-year career and has been a top-17 offensive tackle in 2011, 2012, 2014, and 2015. He and Iupati are both going into their 7th year in the league and their age 29 season and both should have strong years again in 2016. It’s a strong and improved offensive line.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

As good as the offensive line is, the real strength of Palmer’s supporting cast is the receiving corps, as wide receivers Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and John Brown all finished in the top-27 among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus. Floyd made 6 starts, but Fitzgerald and Brown were essentially the starters last season, making 16 and 11 starts respectively and leading the position in snaps. Fitzgerald and Brown put up slash lines of 109/1205/9 and 65/1003/7 respectively and were one of 4 receiving duos to both top 1000 yards in 2015 (the others were Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, and Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns).

Fitzgerald’s a future Hall-of-Famer who averaged 94 catches for 1309 yards and 10 touchdowns per 16 games in the first 8 seasons of his career from 2004-2011. However, he looked on the decline heading into 2015, failing to top 1000 yards in 3 straight seasons from 2012-2014. Part of that was quarterback related, but he certainly was not the same player he used to be. He turned it around in 2015 though, finishing 8th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus and finishing 9th in the league in receiving yards as Carson Palmer’s #1 option. Even though he was below 1000 yards in 2014, he was on pace for 85 catches for 1288 yards and 5 touchdowns over 16 games in the 6 games in which Palmer played, so he and Palmer seem to make a great combination.

The only concern with Fitzgerald is his age, which is a bit of a theme on this Arizona offense. Fitzgerald is going into his age 33 season and ranks 15th all-time with 13,366 career receiving yards. However, even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. The end is closer that it seems for him, but he should have another couple strong seasons under his belt. He has hinted that he may want to retire at the same time as Carson Palmer, which is worth keeping in mind.

Brown is likely the future #1 receiver, as last year’s 1000 yard performance came in just his 2nd year in the league. The 2014 3rd round pick graded out slightly below average as a rookie, catching 48 passes for 696 yards and 5 touchdowns as the 3rd receiver, but finished 27th in 2015 and could take another step forward in his 3rd year in the league in 2016. Floyd, meanwhile, could start on pretty much any other team in the league and may be starting on another team in the league in a year, as he heads into the final year of his contract.

Floyd is probably the best #3 receiver in the league, catching 52 passes for 849 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2015 despite not playing every down, and grading out above average in each of the first 4 seasons of his career, since the Cardinals drafted him in the 1st round in 2012. He maxed out at 22nd in 2013 and finished last season ranked higher than Brown, finishing 24th. This is definitely the top trio of wide receivers in the league. If any of them get hurt, JJ Nelson would step in and he’s got upside as the 4th receiver. He flashed on 148 snaps as a 5th round rookie in 2015 and could have a significant role as soon as 2017 with Floyd heading into free agency.

The Cardinals regularly play 3 and 4 wide receivers so it’s not a huge issue, but tight end is a position of weakness. Running back David Johnson finished 4th on the team in receiving with 36 catches for 457 yards and 4 touchdowns and their top receiving tight end was Darren Fells, who finished 5th on the team with 21 catches for 311 yards and 3 touchdowns. Fells and veteran Jermaine Gresham both return and should split snaps at the position again, after both graded out below average last season.

Fells is the better pass catcher of the two, even at 6-7 281 pounds, but has just 28 catches in 2 seasons in the league. A collegiate basketball player, Fells flashed in his first career action in 2014 on 229 snaps, but fell below average in a larger role on 672 snaps in 2015. He’d be a below average starter. Jermaine Gresham is a better blocker, but he’s not good either. The veteran has 79 career starts, but has graded out below average in 4 straight seasons. It’s a position of weakness, but the fact that they have the best wide receivers in football makes up for it in a big way.

Grade: A

Running Backs

The Cardinals had to go through 3 different starting running backs in 2015, after Chris Johnson and then Andre Ellington got hurt, but the 3rd time was the charm as the Cardinals appear to have discovered a future feature back in 2015 3rd round pick David Johnson. Johnson finished the season with 581 yards and 8 touchdowns on 125 carries (4.65 YPC) on the ground, along with 36 catches for 457 yards and another 4 touchdowns through the air. He made 5 starts in 16 games and finished the season as Pro Football Focus’ 25th ranked running back.

He’ll enter 2015 as the lead back, but both Chris Johnson and Ellington return healthy, so it’s unclear how much of a load he’ll carry. Johnson has 630 carries over the past 3 seasons, but has averaged just 4.05 yards per carry over that time period and is going into his age 31 season and coming off of a broken leg. Ellington, meanwhile, has a career 4.40 YPC average and 100 career catches in 3 seasons in the league, but he’s only had 364 career carries and is undersized and injury prone at 5-9 199. He’s missed 11 of 48 career games with injury and his injury issues date back to his collegiate days at Clemson University and were part of why he dropped to the 6th round in 2013. He’s nothing more than a change of pace back. David Johnson is better than both, but he’s probably not going to get 300 touches or be a true feature back just yet. He’ll still be a big part of their offense though.

Grade: B+

Defensive Line

As good as the Cardinals’ offense was last season, they couldn’t have been as successful as they were as a team without a good defense and they finished 5th in rate of moving the chains allowed. They were led by a number of star caliber players, including defensive end Calais Campbell. Campbell was Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2015, which was actually the worst season he’s had in the past 5 seasons, which just shows you how good he’s been in recent years. Still going only into his age 30 season, he should have another strong season in 2016 and he’s an obvious off-season extension candidate ahead of the final year of his contract.

The Cardinals used a first round pick to draft Mississippi defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche and he has a good shot to be the week 1 starter opposite Campbell at defensive end in this 3-4 defense. Nkemdiche spent his collegiate career inside in a 4-3, but projects as a great fit as a 5-technique defensive end in Arizona’s 3-4 at 6-3 294 pounds. Arguably a top-10 talent, character concerns and off-the-field issues dropped him to the end of the first round, but he could end up being a steal.

His only competition for the job is incumbent Frostee Rucker, who is coming off of a below average season and going into his age 33 season. He’s managed to stay in the league for 10 seasons at this point, but he’s graded out above average just twice in Pro Football Focus’ 9-year history. Nkemdiche has a shot at an every down role as a rookie, pushing Rucker into purely a reserve role behind Nkemdiche and Campbell. He’s a bit of a boom or bust prospect, but Nkemdiche figures to be an upgrade as a rookie at the very least.

Inside at nose tackle, the Cardinals are getting Corey Peters back from a torn achilles that cost him his entire 2015 season. He’s no guarantee to get the starting job back, as replacement Rodney Gunter finished just about average on 414 snaps as a 4th round rookie in 2015, while Peters isn’t exactly a great player. The 2010 3rd round pick has graded out above average just once in 6 seasons in the league, has missed 25 games with injury over that time period, and has torn his achilles twice in the past 30 months. Peters should get the first crack at the job, but Gunter looks like the future at the position. It’s a position of weakness on an overall strong defensive line.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

The Cardinals’ big off-season acquisition was New England edge player Chandler Jones, who they acquired for a 2nd round pick and fringe starting right guard Jonathan Cooper. At first glance, the move makes a lot of sense. Despite a strong season overall as a team, the Cardinals didn’t have a returning outside linebacker with more than 4 sacks last season, while Chandler Jones finished 5th in the NFL in sacks with 12.5 and has experience both at 4-3 defensive end and 3-4 outside linebacker, which he’ll play in Arizona.

However, Jones was not quite as good as his raw sack totals suggest, finishing 35th among edge defenders. He’s finished above average in 3 of 4 seasons in the league and does fill a major need for the Cardinals, but the Cardinals paid a steep price, especially considering he may end up being a one-year rental. The Patriots were so willing to trade him because he’s entering the final year of his rookie deal and they weren’t willing to pay him what it might cost to keep him. A deal similar to Olivier Vernon’s 5-year, 85 million dollar deal might be needed and that’s not quite worth it. A massive contract and a 2nd round pick is a lot to acquire Jones, who isn’t a top level player. With an aging core, the Cardinals seem to be going all in on the 2016 season.

Markus Golden and Alex Okafor led the position in snaps played last season and both figure to see significant roles again in 2016, even with Jones coming in. Golden figures to get the first chance to start, going into his 2nd year in the league, after grading out above average on 518 snaps as a rookie. Okafor, meanwhile, graded out below average on 613 snaps in 2015. The 2013 4th round pick has made 25 starts in 3 years in the league, but has never graded out above average, so he’s probably better off in a reserve role.

Inside, the Cardinals return both starting linebackers Deone Bucannon and Kevin Minter, who both made all 16 starts. They had opposite seasons though, as Bucannon finished 23rd among linebackers, while Minter was all the way down in 78th out of 97 eligible. A first round pick in 2014, Deone Bucannon played both linebacker and safety as a rookie, but struggled at safety and got moved full-time to middle linebacker in his 2nd year in the league in 2015, despite only being 6-1 216. In today’s NFL, you can play linebacker well at that size if you’re good enough in coverage, which Bucannon is. He could take another step forward in his 3rd year in the league and his 2nd year full-time at linebacker in 2016.

The other middle linebacker spot is probably the biggest weakness remaining on this talented defense. Minter, a 2nd round pick in 2013, graded out above average in 2014, but had never been anything more than a two-down run stopping middle linebacker who played less than half the snaps before last season and seemed overwhelmed in an every down role, particularly in coverage. Going into the final year of his rookie deal, Minter could be replaced next off-season, but they don’t have an obvious alternative on the roster. It’s a solid unit overall regardless.

Grade: B

Secondary

Along with Calais Campbell, defensive backs Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu carried this defense in 2015, particularly the latter. Mathieu was Pro Football Focus’ #2 ranked defensive back in 2015, playing both safety and slot cornerback, but tore his ACL week 15 and missed the rest of the season. Carson Palmer and the rest of the offense melting down made it basically impossible for the Cardinals to win the NFC Championship, but the Cardinals clearly missed Mathieu down the stretch and his absence definitely contributed to the Cardinals falling short, despite such a strong regular season. The Cardinals have a lot of valuable players, but he was their most valuable on defense.

This injury is especially concerning because it’s the 2nd time he’s torn it in his NFL career and he’s only going into his 4th year in the league. Mathieu was Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked cornerback as a 3rd round rookie in 2013 and was a legitimate Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate, but tore his ACL late in the season and was limited to 438 nondescript snaps in 2014. He appeared to put the injury behind him in a dominant 2015 season, but now is dealing with another long recovery and more uncertainty.

Mathieu has vowed to only return when he’s 100% and not rush it like the last time around, but he’s still a candidate to play week 1. His recovery is obviously worth monitoring and there are no guarantees he’s the same player right away when he does return. The good news for Mathieu is he’s still only going into his age 24 season so he should recover quicker and, if he can put the injuries behind him, he can still have a very good, long career. The Cardinals don’t seem too concerned about his health long-term, giving him a 5-year, 62.5 million dollar deal ahead of what would have been the final year of his rookie deal in 2016. He’s now the 7th highest paid defensive back in the NFL in terms of average annual salary. He’s well worth it if he can stay healthy.

Peterson is also locked up long-term, signing a 5-year, 70 million dollar extension two off-season ago, after the 2011 5th overall pick had been in the league for just 3 seasons and had 2 more years left on his rookie deal. The extension is actually just starting now. Peterson finished 16th among cornerbacks in 2012 and 14th in 2013, but graded out below average in 2014 after signing the extension. However, that was only because he dealt with complications from undiagnosed diabetes all season and he bounced back in a big way with his diabetes under control in 2015, finishing a career best 5th. Still only going into his age 26 season, Peterson has made all 80 starts in 5 seasons in the league, despite his health issues, and, with his health under control, is one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL.

Peterson will shadow opponent’s #1 receivers, while Mathieu will play safety in base packages and cover the slot in sub packages, where he excels. If Mathieu misses the start of the season, Tony Jefferson and Tyvon Branch will be the starters at safety. Jefferson has started 17 games in 3 seasons in the league since going undrafted in 2013 and has generally played well overall, grading out above average in 2 of 3 seasons in the league, including 18th in 2015. He’s never been an every down starter for a full season like he’s expected to be in 2016, with veteran free agent Rashad Johnson signing with the Titans, but he could have a breakout year and command a significant contract as a free agent next off-season. He’s a capable starter at the very least.

Branch, meanwhile, comes over from Kansas City on a 2-year, 10 million dollar deal. Branch was limited to 4 games by injury from 2013-2014, but bounced back in a part-time role with the Chiefs last season, grading out above average on 428 snaps between the regular season and post-season. When Mathieu returns, Branch figures to only play about half the snaps in Arizona as well, coming in as a 3rd safety in sub packages when Mathieu moves to cornerback. His injury history is a concern, but he’s still only going into his age 30 season after all that and has graded out above average in each of his last 3 healthy seasons and could easily be solid in a situational role again in 2016.

Cornerback, on the other hand, becomes a very thin position if Mathieu isn’t on the field, covering the slot. Justin Bethel appears to be locked in as the starter opposite Peterson regardless, despite grading just slightly below average on 443 snaps in the first significant action of his career in 2015, after spending the first 3 seasons of his career from 2012-2014 as solely a special teamer. He’s a 3-time Pro Bowl special teamer in 4 years in the league since the Cardinals drafted him in the 6th round in 2012 and the Cardinals clearly believe in him as a defensive player as well, keeping him long-term with a 3-year, 15 million dollar extension last off-season, but he’s a complete projection to a starting cornerback role with just 4 career starts. He’ll be picked on a lot with Peterson locking down one side of the field well and could easily struggle in that role. Meanwhile, 3rd round rookie Brandon Williams would likely see action on the slot if Mathieu isn’t ready for the start of the season and could step into the starting lineup by season’s end if Bethel struggles. It’s a strong secondary, but so much is reliant on Mathieu’s health.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Cardinals were one of the best teams in the league last season and figure to be one of the best in the league once again in 2016. They had no major losses this off-season and added short-term starters at positions of need in Evan Mathis (right guard) and Chandler Jones (edge defender), giving them one of the best lineups in the NFL. Whether or not they win the Super Bowl is going to depend largely on an aging core continue to play at a high level and the return of potential Defensive Player of the Year Tyrann Mathieu from his 2nd torn ACL in 3 seasons.

Prediction: 12-4 1st in NFC West

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Minnesota Vikings 2016 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Uncategorized, Vikings

Quarterback

The Minnesota Vikings finished the 2013 season 5-10-1 and among the worst teams in the NFL. However, it’s been a steady climb for them over the past 2 seasons, culminating with a 2015 NFC North title, on the strength of an 11-5 record.  Easily the two biggest reasons for the Vikings’ improvement in recent years were added the off-season after that 5-win 2013 season, quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and head coach Mike Zimmer. I’ll get into more about Zimmer in the defensive section, because the long-time NFL defensive coordinator has made his biggest impact on that side of the ball, but Zimmer was a very savvy hire, as he’s respected around the league and had been successful as a defensive coordinator in 14 seasons with 3 teams prior to becoming the head man in Minnesota. How it took him this long to get a look as a head coach is beyond me and the rest of the league’s loss has been Minnesota’s gain.

The same is true of Bridgewater in a sense. He fell in the draft because of concerns about his arm strength, but the Vikings traded back up into the first round and grabbed Bridgewater at #32 overall, after the likes of Blake Bortles and Johnny Manziel (lol). Through 2 seasons, Bridgewater was certainly rewarding them, as he made 28 starts in the last 2 seasons, including all 16 last season. His raw numbers don’t jump out, as he’s completed 64.9% of his passes for an average of 7.24 YPA, 28 touchdowns, and 21 interceptions in 2 seasons in the league, but he played better than his numbers. His production was largely kept down by a weak receiving corps.

Going into 2016, the Vikings had the look of a team on the cusp of being great, with one of the NFL’s most talented rosters. However, they were dealt a significant blow this August when Bridgewater suffered a brutal knee injury, tearing his ACL, dislocating his kneecap, and getting knocked out for the season with less than 2 weeks before the start of the season. Bridgewater is reportedly not only out for 2016, but there are real concerns about his ability to be healthy for 2017 as well. Given that, it’s no surprise they made a desperation move on the season’s eve, trading a 2017 1st round pick and a conditional 2018 pick to the Eagles for starting quarterback Sam Bradford, 8 days before their week 1 game.

Bradford was expendable in Philadelphia because they already had veteran quarterback Chase Daniel and rookie #2 overall pick Carson Wentz, but he’s an obvious upgrade in Minnesota over backup Shaun Hill.  Going into his age 36 season, Hill has played well enough in his career to still be around at this point, but his numbers weren’t great in his last significant action in 2014 (63.3% completion, 7.24 YPA, 8 touchdowns, 7 interceptions) and now he’s two years older. Hill may still start the first couple weeks of the season as Bradford learns the playbook, but they paid a lot to get Bradford so he’ll be on the field sooner rather than later.

How he’ll fare in Minnesota after spending the whole off-season in Philadelphia is a legitimate concern, but, on paper, Bradford appears to be a capable replacement for Bridgewater. Neither quarterback has a great arm, but Bradford actually finished one spot higher than Bridgewater last season on Pro Football Focus (12th vs. 13th) and his numbers were comparable as well, as he completed 65.0% of his passes for an average of 7.00 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. They paid a lot for him, but this is a talented team that can win now and the Vikings didn’t want to pass on an opportunity to get a quarterback who can win a Super Bowl with enough supporting talent. That’s simply not what Hill was.

The good news is this is not a team built around the pass. They passed just 454 times last season. For comparison sake, the Saints completed more passes than the Vikings attempted last season. They joined the Seahawks, Panthers, and Bills as the only teams in the league who ran more often than they passed. Even though Bradford isn’t quite nearly as mobile as Bridgewater (who took off 44 times last season), that should continue in 2016. They have a strong defense supporting them and one of the best running backs in the NFL in Adrian Peterson.

Grade: C+

Receiving Corps

With a strong overall roster, wide receiver was easily the Vikings’ biggest need going into the off-season and they predictably addressed it in the first round by taking Mississippi wide receiver LaQuon Treadwell 23rd overall. Treadwell might not enter the season as the starter, as he’ll face competition from veterans Charles Johnson and Adam Thielman, but will likely have a significant role by the middle of the season. Johnson and Thielman have just 40 and 20 career catches respectively in 3 seasons in the league. Johnson went in the 7th round in 2013 and Thielman went undrafted, so it’s not like either was a hot commodity coming out of school. Treadwell has much higher upside than both.

Johnson is reportedly the favorite to open the season as the starter though, unsurprising considering rookie receivers sometimes take a little bit to adjust to the speed of the NFL. Johnson would start opposite 2nd year receiver Stefon Diggs. Diggs isn’t a true #1 receiver, but he was a steal in the 5th round last year. Despite only playing 13 games and starting just 9 of them, Diggs led the team in receiving with 52 catches for 720 yards and 4 touchdowns on 371 routes run and finished 25th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus, higher than fellow rookie Amari Cooper, who had better numbers, but saw many more targets and ran many more routes. He and Treadwell are still unproven and inexperienced, but make a nice, young duo with good upside.

Tight end Kyle Rudolph is also a factor in the passing game, but injuries remain a concern for him. He played all 16 games last season, but missed 15 games with injury in 2013 and 2014. Rudolph finished 13th among tight ends in each of the first 2 years in his career, especially excelling as a run blocker, but wasn’t the same even when he was on the field in 2013 and 2014 and fell to 23rd among tight ends (out of 67 eligible) in 2015. That’s not terrible and he’s still only going into his age 27 season, but the Vikings probably expected more when they gave him a 5-year, 36.5 million dollar extension two off-seasons ago.

Rhett Ellison has been the #2 tight end for the past couple seasons, but he tore his patellar tendon in January. That’s as serious as a knee injury can be. In fact, no one has come back the same from the injury in recent memory and it has ended several careers. He’s highly unlikely to be ready for week 1, just 8 months after the injury, and could easily miss the entire season. That leaves 2015 5th round pick Mycole Pruitt (who played 242 nondescript snaps as a rookie) to compete for 6th round rookie David Morgan for the #2 job. It’s an improved receiving corps.

Grade: B

Running Backs

As mentioned, the Vikings will rely heavily on Adrian Peterson and this running game in Bridgewater’s absence. Peterson ranked just 27th among running backs on Pro Football Focus last season, but that’s largely because of his deficiencies on passing downs. He ranked 8th at the position in pure run grade, rushing for 1485 yards and 11 touchdowns on 327 carries, an average of 4.54 YPC. In a league where 300+ carry running backs are almost a thing of the past, Peterson led the league and had 39 more carries than anyone else. With offensive coordinator Norv Turner being a very traditional guy and Peterson being who he is, I don’t expect his usage to change much.

The one concern is age for Peterson, as he goes into his age 31 season with 2381 career carries. He ranks 17th all-time in rushing yards with 11,675, but, of the top-25 all-time leading rushers who have played in the last decade and a half, the average one has his last 1000 yard season in his age 30 season at 2602 carrier carries. Peterson is no ordinary running back, but neither is the average Hall-of-Famer, so most likely Peterson is entering the final 2-3 good seasons of his career, even if he doesn’t look like it. I’d be surprised if his abilities fell off a cliff this season though.

Peterson has always struggled on passing downs and taking him off the field in more passing situations could be a good way to keep Peterson fresher. That would give more playing time to backup Jerrick McKinnon. McKinnon has just 165 carries in 2 seasons in the league, since going in the 3rd round in 2014, but he’s rushed for 809 yards on those carries, an average of 4.93 YPC, and has been solid in the passing game as well, adding 48 catches for another 308 yards. He’ll remain the primary backup to Peterson and could see an increase in snaps, especially in obvious passing situations. Peterson and McKinnon are a strong duo on what should remain a run heavy team.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

Another reason why this should remain a run heavy team is the fact that the offensive line is much better at run blocking than they are in pass protection. Despite only 454 pass attempts, the Vikings allowed 45 sacks, but part of that was Bridgewater holding onto the ball too long and the offensive line also frequently opened holes for the running game. Their best offensive lineman last season was center Joe Berger, who finished 2nd among centers on Pro Football Focus. That’s surprising considering he had made 38 starts in just 10 seasons in the league prior to last season. However, he’s always played well whenever he’s had a chance, grading out above average in every season in which he’s played since Pro Football Focus’ origin in 2007. Even going into his age 34 season, he has a chance to be a good player again in 2016.

Berger wasn’t even supposed to be in the starting lineup last season and only took over when long-time center John Sullivan injured his back before the season and ended up missing the whole year. Sullivan was with the Vikings for most of this off-season, but ultimately got cut, owed 5.5 million non-guaranteed in his age 31 season in 2016. Berger is a pretty center right now than Sullivan, but they may regret cutting Sullivan. They could have easily kept Sullivan and moved Berger to guard, where he’s actually spent most of his career.

Sullivan is a great player when healthy and doesn’t have an injury history, making 63 starts from 2011-2014 and grading out in the top-12 among centers in all 4 seasons and in the top-3 in 3 of those 4 seasons. Even going into his age 31 season, coming off of a major injury, he’ll be missed. Instead of keeping Sullivan and moving Berger to left guard or starting incumbent left guard Mike Harris (Pro Football Focus’ 23rd ranked guard in 2015), who they re-signed for 2 million over 1 year this off-season, the Vikings brought in free agent right guard Alex Boone and will move incumbent right guard Brandon Fusco to left guard.

Fusco and Boone are not bad guards, but they’re not great either. Fusco was Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked guard in 2013, but has proven to be a one-year wonder, grading out below average in 3 of the last 4 seasons, making 59 starts over that period of time. He’s a solid starter, but an unspectacular player. The same is true of Boone, who was Pro Football Focus 3rd ranked guard in 2012, but has finished 39th, 18th, and 38th in 2013, 2014, and 2015 respectively. He was overpaid on a 4-year, 26.8 million dollar deal by a team that didn’t seem to need him.

The Vikings’ starting offensive tackles are equally uninspiring. Ex-Bengal Andre Smith was brought in to be the starter on the right side, signing for 3.5 million over 1 year as a free agent this off-season. Smith was a 45-game starter for the Bengals at right tackle from 2011-2013, finishing in the top-28 among offensive tackles in all 3 seasons, but has been limited to 22 games by injury over the past 2 seasons and has graded out below average in both seasons, including 56th out of 77 eligible in 2015. Going into his age 29 season, his best days are likely behind him and he’s reportedly not having a good off-season.

As a result, TJ Clemmings, who is technically the incumbent after making 16 starts as a 5th round rookie in 2015, could beat out Smith, the heavy favorite when he signed. Clemmings predictably struggled as a rookie, finishing 62nd out of 77 eligible offensive tackles and was only in the starting lineup because the now retired Phil Loadholt got injured. Smith ought to be able to beat him out and if he can’t, it’s likely a bad sign for Smith’s career, rather than a good sign for Clemmings’ career.

With neither Clemmings or Smith capable of playing the left side effectively either, Matt Kalil is locked in at the position where he’s made all 64 starts over the past 4 seasons, since going 4th overall in the 2012 NFL Draft. Kalil looked worth the pick as a rookie, finishing 21st among offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus, but he’s declined significantly since then, grading out below average in each of the past 3 seasons, including 46th in 2015. He’ll have another shot to turn it around in 2016, but I don’t have high expectations for him. It’s an overall underwhelming offensive line outside of center.

Grade: C+

Defensive Line

As I mentioned earlier, long-time defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer has had a profound impact on the Vikings’ defense since he took over as head coach prior to the 2014 season. He inherited a defense that finished 30th in rate of moving the chains allowed in 2013 and has led them to finish 23rd in 2014 and 13th last season. Obviously, that’s not all Zimmer, but a young defense has come of age under his leadership. One player who is not young is 9-year veteran defensive end Brian Robison, who is going into his age 33 season. Despite that, he’s still coming off of a solid year, finishing slightly above average on Pro Football Focus, the 7th time he’s done that in 8 seasons in the league. However, his age is concerning and his rough 2014 season, when he was Pro Football Focus’ 8th worst 4-3 defensive end, could be a preview of things to come. At the same time, I would not be surprised if he had another solid year left in the tank.

Either way, Robison should see fewer snaps this season, as 2015 3rd round pick Danielle Hunter showed a lot of promise as a rookie, finishing 42nd among edge defenders on 426 snaps. He has the look of a future starter and should work in close to even rotation with Robison, which could help the veteran as he ages. Hunter’s emergence probably means that this is Robison’s final year in Minnesota. He’d be owed 5.6 million between salary and bonuses in 2016 under the current terms of his contract, likely too much for him at that stage in his career.

Everson Griffen remains as an every down starter on the opposite side and has made 31 of 32 starts over the past 2 seasons. He’s the perfect example of a player who has coming into his own under Zimmer. A 2010 4th round pick, Griffin started just 1 game in the first 4 seasons of his career from 2010-2013 and, while he had flashed in limited action as a rotational reserve at both defensive end and defensive tackle, he never finished higher than 20th among 4-3 defensive ends on Pro Football Focus. That jumped to 8th in 2014 and then he finished 20th among edge defenders on Pro Football Focus in 2015. The Vikings may not have had to pay him 42.5 million over 5 years to keep him as a free agent two off-seasons ago, but he’s certainly been worth it over the past 2 years of the deal.

Griffen still rushes the passer from the interior from time to time, which opens up more pass rush snaps for guys like Hunter and outside linebacker Anthony Barr (more on him later). However, the Vikings have a pretty good situation at defensive tackle, where Linval Joseph and Sharrif Floyd return as starters. Joseph had an outstanding year in 2015, finishing 3rd among defensive tackles on Pro Football Focus. However, that’s pretty out of character for him, as he had never finished higher than 24th in 5 seasons in the league. He’ll likely never have a season as good as he did last season again, but he’s an obvious asset upfront for the Vikings.

Floyd on the other hand, had a great 2014 season, but was much more middle of the pack in 2015. Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked defensive tackle in 2014, Floyd finished 50th out of 123 eligible interior defenders on Pro Football Focus in 2015. Only going into his age 25 season, the 2013 1st round pick has a higher upside than Joseph, but both are more than solid starters at the position. The issue is depth, as Tom Johnson, a declining player going into his age 32 season, is their only real depth at the position.

Johnson was Pro Football Focus’ 23rd ranked defensive tackle on 444 snaps in 2014, but that’s the only season in his career in which he’s graded out above average. He finished 81st out of 123 eligible defensive tackles in 2015. With few needs, I was surprised the Vikings didn’t add a young defensive tackle in the draft. They have 2014 7th round pick Shamar Stephen, but he struggled mightily on 414 snaps as a rookie in 2014. Still, it’s obviously a deep defensive line across the board.

Grade: A

Linebackers

As I mentioned, outside linebacker Anthony Barr occasionally rushes the passer as a defensive end in sub packages, especially in dime packages when the Vikings only use 1 linebacker. He’s primarily a coverage linebacker in pass situations, but excels in all 3 phases of the game, rushing the passer, dropping into coverage, and stopping the run. He finished 8th among 4-3 outside linebackers in 2014 and then 2nd among all linebackers (behind Carolina’s Luke Kuechly) in 2015.

A rare athlete at 6-5 255, Barr has only been playing defense for 5 seasons (spending his first 2 seasons at UCLA as a fullback/running back). Only going into his age 24 season, the sky’s the limit for the 2014 9th overall pick. As valuable as the addition of Bridgewater at 32 was to their offense, the addition of Barr at 9 in that same draft has been equally valuable to this defense. By adding Barr, Bridgewater, and Zimmer, the foundation for last year’s playoff run was established 2 off-seasons ago.

The rest of the linebacking corps is not as good. Second year player Eric Kendricks starts every down in the middle again. He struggled as a rookie, finishing 56th out of 97 eligible linebackers on Pro Football Focus, but the Vikings are obviously giving him another shot and hoping the 2nd round pick can take a step forward in his 2nd year in the league. On the other side, Chad Greenway has made 135 starts in 9 seasons in the league, but is a shell of himself going into his age 33 season and looks at about the end of the road. He’s graded out below average in 5 straight seasons, including 61th out of 97 eligible linebackers last season.

He’ll face competition from free agent acquisition Emmanuel Lamur, but he’s not really any better; there’s a reason the Vikings were able to get him for only 5.5 million over 2 years. He’s made 15 starts over the past 2 seasons, but finished 39th out of 40 eligible 4-3 outside linebackers in 2014 and 82nd out of 97 eligible linebackers last season, even worse than Greenway. He’s best off as a reserve, but he could be pressed into a starting role. Fortunately, it’s a purely base package role, so whoever wins the job won’t play more than half the snaps and will come off the field for a 5th defensive line in sub packages. Barr elevates the group a lot by himself, but the unit has problems.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The Vikings may be overall a young defense and have 5 players on defense drafted in the 1st round since 2012 (Anthony Barr, Sharrif Floyd, and 3 defensive backs, who I’ll get into in a minute), but they also have the 2nd oldest defensive player in the league (behind Pittsburgh’s James Harrison) in Terence Newman, who is heading into his age 38 season. Newman still played well last season, making 16 starts and grading out above average for the 3rd time in the last 4 seasons, but it’s hard to rely on someone his age. Given that the Vikings used their 1st round pick on Trae Waynes in 2015 and their 2nd round pick on Mackensie Alexander in 2016, Newman will have plenty of competition for his job and probably won’t play as many snaps as he did in 2015.

Waynes and Alexander might not have big roles though. Waynes barely played as a rookie, playing pretty well on 215 snaps, and the Vikings didn’t lose any cornerbacks this off-season. In fact, they gained one with the addition of Alexander. Alexander was a great value in the late 2nd round, as most expected him to be a top-40 pick. A more natural slot cornerback than Waynes, Alexander will likely compete with incumbent slot cornerback Captain Munnerlyn for the slot cornerback job, while Waynes competes for snaps outside with Newman.

Don’t expect Alexander to win that battle though, as Munnerlyn was arguably the Vikings’ top cornerback last season, finishing 18th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus, primarily playing on the slot, where he excels. He’s given up less than 1.1 yards per route run on the slot over the past 3 seasons. Though he’s undersized at 5-9 195, he can also play outside if needed and has graded out above average in 4 straight seasons, maxing out at 10th overall in 2013 with the Panthers. Alexander will likely have to wait until next season to see much playing time. Munnerlyn is a free agent at the end of the season.

The only cornerback locked into his current role is Xavier Rhodes, a 2013 1st round pick who has started 32 games over the past 2 seasons. He’s graded out above average in 3 seasons in the league, but has never finished higher than 21st among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus and fell to 58th in a down year in 2015. His biggest issue has always been penalties, as he’s committed 22 in the last 2 seasons combined. Going into his 4th year in the league and his age 26 season, the Vikings are hoping he can cut down on the penalties and put it all together. The Vikings may not have a true #1 cornerback, but they have ridiculous depth at the cornerback position.

Along with Anthony Barr, Sharrif Floyd, Xavier Rhodes, and Trae Waynes, the 5th defensive player the Vikings have drafted in the first round since 2012 is Harrison Smith, who might be the best of the bunch. It’s close between Anthony Barr and Harrison Smith for the Vikings’ most valuable defensive player, but both are All-Pro caliber players who are among the best in the league at their respective positions. Smith was Pro Football Focus #2 ranked safety in 2014 and them moved up to #1 in 2015. The Vikings gave him a well-deserved 5-year, 51.25 million dollar extension this off-season, ahead of his contract year, making him the 3rd highest paid safety in the NFL in terms of average annual salary.

Things are not as good at the other safety position. The Vikings mentioned several times publicly this off-season that they wanted to add a big-time safety this off-season, which made sense, given that incumbent Andrew Sendejo struggled mightily last season (finishing 85th out of 89 eligible safeties) and given that they had few other needs and adequate cap space with which to work. Instead, before free agency even started, they ended up re-signing Sendejo to a 4-year, 16 million dollar deal. The Vikings did add Michael Griffin on a 1-year, 3 million dollar deal, but the veteran didn’t even make the final roster, despite a $750,000 signing bonus. It’s a position of weakness in an overall strong secondary.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

I’ve had to change Minnesota’s season preview twice this week, first for the injury to Bridgewater then for the trade for Bradford. On paper, Bradford and Bridgewater are incredibly similar players, so the Vikings have a good chance to make the playoffs again, but it’s tough to know how Bradford will fare, being brought in with just 8 days to go until the start of the season. This is a talented team that’s built around their running game and defense, which makes life easier for Bradford, but they’re not a lock to return to the post-season.

Prediction: 8-8 3rd in NFC North

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Detroit Lions 2016 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Lions, Uncategorized

Quarterback

It was a tale of two seasons for the Lions in 2015. Following a 1-7 start and a 45-10 loss to the Chiefs in London week 8, the Lions won 6 of their final 8 games after the bye. It was too late for them to make the playoffs obviously, as they finished just 7-9, but there is a lot to build on following last season’s strong finish, as they try to make the playoffs for the 3rd time in 6 seasons in 2016. The Lions were especially strong on offense over the final 8 games of the season, moving the chains at a 76.14% rate over that stretch, as opposed to 69.02% over the first 8 games of the season.

The one big change the Lions made was firing offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi and replacing him with ex-quarterbacks coach Jim Bob Cooter. The Lions struggled in Cooter’s first game as offensive coordinator, that big loss in London, but that was a borderline impossible situation for Cooter, taking over the job the same week the Lions had to travel all the way to London. After the bye the following week, the Lions’ offense was significantly better and Cooter deserves a lot of credit for the turnaround.

Matt Stafford’s numbers were drastically better over the final 8 games of the season. Obviously Stafford deserves a lot of the credit, but so does Cooter. Over the first 8 games of the season, Stafford completed 64.5% of his passes for an average of 6.97 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, as opposed to 70.0% completion, 7.44 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions over the final 8 games of the season. The Lions’ schedule was noticeably easier down the stretch, but that’s still an impressive turnaround. Overall on the season, Stafford finished 21st among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus, slightly below average for the 2nd straight season, after finishing in the top-13 in each of his first 3 seasons as a starter from 2011-2013. He isn’t more than a solid starter, but he’s certainly not a bad option either and it’s clear he has an offensive coordinator who is a good fit for him right now.

Grade: B

Wide Receivers

One thing that really threatens to derail the offensive progress the Lions made down the stretch last season is the sudden retirement of Calvin Johnson, ahead of his age 31 season. Johnson was aging, declining, and hampered with injuries, but Megatron at 80-90% was still Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked wide receiver, actually the lowest the still-likely-future-Hall-of-Famer had finished since 2009. It’s tough to replace a guy like that, but the Lions did not waste any time finding a replacement, signing Marvin Jones, arguably the top available free agent wide receiver this off-season, to a 5-year, 40 million dollar deal.

Jones is obviously not nearly as good as Johnson, but he’s been an impressive wide receiver over the past 3 seasons as long as he’s been healthy. He finished 2013 as Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked wide receiver and last season as their 38th ranked wide receiver, with a 2014 season lost to injury in between. Aside from the injury that cost him all of 2014, Jones hasn’t missed a game since his rookie year, so injuries aren’t a long-term concern for him. Still only going into his age 26 season, it’s possible the best football of his career is yet to come. He’s not quite a true #1 wide receiver, but he’s at least a 1B caliber player.

Fortunately, Golden Tate can be 1A for Detroit, as he returns on the other side. Tate finished last season 27th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus, slightly better than Jones. That’s actually Tate’s lowest rated season since 2012, as he averaged more than 2 yards per route run in both 2013 and 2014. Even with the Seahawks he was very productive on a per route basis; the Seahawks just did not pass often. In a much pass happier Detroit offense, Tate caught 99 passes for 1331 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2014, before falling to a 90/813/6 in 2015. He has a very good chance to bounce back this season though. He caught 39 passes for 599 yards and 3 touchdowns in 5 games where Johnson was injured in 2014, proving he can be a #1 receiver. Jones will get plenty of targets, especially around the red zone, but Tate should lead this team in receptions and receiving yards in 2016.

Theo Riddick was 3rd on the team with 80 catches for 697 yards and 3 touchdowns last year. He’s a nice option to have, but the Lions probably don’t want to be as reliant on him next season as they were last season, which means they need tight end Eric Ebron to step up. The 10th overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft, Ebron has graded out below average in his first 2 seasons in the NFL. However, he was a lot better from 2014 to 2015, especially as a pass catcher, after a drop-filled rookie year. He still has a lot of room for improvement as a run blocker, but he could take another leap forward in his 3rd year in the league in 2016. The Lions knew he was raw when they drafted him and he’s still only going into his age 23 season. He’s a question mark overall, but there’s plenty of upside here.

Brandon Pettigrew remains as the #2 tight end. A bust as a 1st round pick by the Lions in 2008, Pettigrew is a solid blocker, but little else, catching just 17 passes over the past 2 seasons. Making matters worse, he’s going into his age 31 season and coming off of a torn ACL. He likely would have been released this off-season, if not for the fact that his December injury guaranteed his 2016 salary, per the terms of his contract. Owed a non-guaranteed 3.65 million in 2017, this is likely his final year in Detroit. He could even be pushed for snaps by undrafted free agent tight end Cole Wick and is not a lock to be healthy enough to play by week 1.

Anquan Boldin is another option in the passing game along with Jones, Tate, Ebron, and Riddick, signing a 1-year, 2.75 million dollar deal with the Lions as a free agent this off-season, ahead of his age 36 season. Even though he’s the 2nd oldest wide receiver in the league after Steve Smith, he still finished last season 33rd among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus in 2015 and could still have another solid season left in the tank as a slot specialist and 3rd wide receiver behind Jones and Tate. It’s definitely not a bad receiving corps, but Johnson will definitely be missed.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

One area the Lions really need to improve is on the ground, as that’s been a weakness for two seasons and remained one even after the offense improved in the 2nd half of last season. Stafford can’t maintain those absurd numbers he put up in the final 8 games of the season, especially without Johnson and against a harder schedule, so they’ll need to run the football better, after averaging 3.59 yards per carry in 2014 (29th in the NFL) and 3.77 yards per carry in 2015 (26th in the NFL).

The Lions drafted Ameer Abdullah in the 2nd round in 2015 to try to improve the running game. However, he did not have a good rookie year, grading out 53rd among 69 eligible running backs on Pro Football Focus. His overall numbers were not bad, as he rushed for 597 yards and 2 touchdowns on 143 carries (4.17 YPC), but he fumbled 4 times, struggled in pass protection (limiting him to 355 total snaps), and managed just 27 first downs on those 143 carries. The Lions expect more from him this season and he is definitely the favorite to lead the team in carries, but it’s far from a guarantee that he performs well.

His biggest competition for carries is Zach Zenner, a 5-11 222 pounder who will serve as the #2 “big back” behind the 5-9 203 pound Abdullah. Joique Bell served in that role last season, rushing for 311 yards and 4 touchdowns on 90 carries, a very weak 3.46 YPC that got him cut ahead of his age 30 season in 2016; he remains unsigned as of this writing. Zenner didn’t perform well in limited action last season either, rushing for 60 yards on 17 carries (3.53 YPC), but the Lions still like the 2015 undrafted free agent’s upside, after a strong pre-season last year. That’s not enough for me to be confident in him though.

As I mentioned, Theo Riddick returns as the passing down back, after breaking out in that role in 2015. A collegiate running back and wide receiver at the University of Notre Dame, Riddick is useless as a rusher, with just 209 yards and 1 touchdown on 72 carries in 3 years in the league (a 2.90 career YPC), but flashed with 34 catches in limited action in 2014 and then caught 80 passes last season (tied for first in the NFL among running backs). He finished the season #1 among running backs on Pro Football Focus in pure pass catching grade. Another 60-70 catches isn’t out of the question for Riddick. Zenner taking short yardage work and Riddick playing passing downs limits Abdullah’s upside on a team that doesn’t run the ball much anyway. It’s an underwhelming trio overall, particularly on the ground.

Grade: C

Offensive Line

The Lions’ running backs aren’t really any better than they were last year, but they could be better on the ground anyway if their offensive line plays better than it did last season. In 2013, the Lions averaged 4.03 yards per carry despite Joique Bell and a declining Reggie Bush splitting carries, in large part because of a dominant offensive line. The offensive line has been anything but dominant since and only two starters from that 2013 offensive line remain right now. The Lions have spent their last two first round picks trying to remedy the problem.

Laken Tomlinson was their first round pick in 2015. A collegiate left tackle at Duke, Tomlinson struggled at left guard last season, finishing 53rd out of 81 eligible guards on Pro Football Focus, but still has a lot of talent and could be a lot better in his 2nd year in the league. The Lions then used the 16th overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft to take Taylor Decker out of Ohio State. Though many feel he’s a better fit at right tackle in the NFL, the Lions plan on keeping Decker at his collegiate position of left tackle for now and moving incumbent left tackle Riley Reiff to right tackle. That could certainly change, but that’s the way it looks right now.

Reiff wasn’t bad at left tackle, making 47 starts there from 2013-2015 and grading out around average or above in all 3 seasons, but the Lions feel more comfortable with him at right tackle, as he’s a much better run blocker than pass protector. Reiff is one of those two holdovers from the Lions’ 2013 offensive line; the other is right guard Larry Warford. A 3rd round rookie in 2013, Warford looked like a future All-Pro and was actually my pick for Offensive Rookie of the Year (over Eddie Lacy and Keenan Allen), finishing as Pro Football Focus’ #4 ranked guard and not missing a snap all season. Injuries have really slowed him down over the past 2 seasons though, as he’s missed 6 games with injury, and his ranking has fallen to 16th in 2014 and 37th in 2015. If he can stay healthy and bounce back this season, that would be huge for this team, and huge for him as well, as he heads into his contract year.

Center is the Lions’ biggest weakness, as incumbent center Travis Swanson struggled mightily in his first year as a starter in 2015, finishing 33rd out of 39 eligible centers on Pro Football Focus. The 2014 3rd round pick struggled mightily in limited action as a rookie too. He’ll be pushed for his starting job by 3rd round rookie Graham Glasgow and will be on a very short leash even if he does keep his starting job to begin the season. It’s an overall improved offensive line, but it’s still one with a lot of problems.

Grade: C+

Defensive Line

Last off-season, the Lions lost defensive tackles Ndamukong Suh, Nick Fairley, and CJ Mosley in free agency and had to completely retool the defensive tackle position. The biggest move they made towards that goal was trading for ex-Baltimore defensive tackle Haloti Ngata. Ngata graded out as a top-18 player at his position in every season from 2007-2014 with the Ravens (playing 3-4 defensive end, 3-4 nose tackle, and 4-3 defensive tackle), but Ngata was aging and the Ravens had cap issues and were willing to part with him and his non-guaranteed 8.5 million dollar salary.

Ngata wasn’t quite the same player last season as he was in Baltimore, finishing 39th out of interior defenders on Pro Football Focus, but he was still an above average starter and an asset for the Lions. They re-signed him as a free agent this off-season, giving him 12 million over 2 years. Going into his age 32 season, his best days are probably behind him, but he should still have at least a couple more good seasons left in him. He led Lion defensive tackles in snaps played last season with 599 and could easily do so again this season.

Tyrunn Walker was the Lions’ other addition at defensive tackle last off-season. He was obviously a much smaller addition than Ngata and he didn’t pan out for the Lions because he missed the final 12 games of the season with a broken ankle. The Lions decided to bring him back this off-season though, keeping him on a cheap 1-year, 1.6 million dollar deal. Only going into his age 26 season, if he can stay healthy, there’s still breakout potential here.

The 2012 undrafted free agent flashed in 2013 and 2014, grading about above average on 119 and 308 snaps respectively, including 21st among defensive tackles in 2014. He’ll compete for a starting job and, at the very least, will have a significant rotational role. The Lions also added A’Shawn Robinson in the 2nd round of the draft. He’s not much of a pass rusher yet, but the 6-4 307 pounder is probably the favorite for early down snaps next to Ngata, with Walker working in as a sub package pass rusher.

With Suh gone, Ezekiel Ansah has taken over as the Lions’ most dominant defensive lineman. Ansah isn’t as good as Suh, but he’s close. Ansah, the #5 overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, is also 2 years younger than Suh. He’s made 44 starts in 3 years in the league and has graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked 4-3 defensive end and their 27th ranked edge defender in 2014 and 2015 respectively. With two years left on his rookie deal, Ansah could come close to Ndamukong Suh money (114 million over 6 years) on his next contract. The Lions will likely try to extend him either this off-season or next.

At the other defensive end spot, Jason Jones left as a free agent, after making 15 starts last season, but the Lions have an obvious internal replacement in Devin Taylor. Taylor, a 2013 4th round pick, struggled on a combined 535 snaps in his first 2 years in the league, 2013 and 2014, but had a mini-breakout year last year, grading out just above average on 551 snaps as the #3 defensive end. Going into his first year as a starter, he could take another leap forward, which could net him a big payday as a free agent next off-season. At the very least, he’s an adequate replacement for Jones.

The Lions also signed veteran Wallace Gilberry as a free agent. He’ll serve as the #3 defensive end, though he’s an underwhelming player at this stage of his career. Going into his age 32 season, Gilberry has graded out below average in 6 of 8 seasons in the league and may be nearing the end. 6th round rookie Anthony Gettel could push him for snaps by the end of the season. Still, it’s an overall solid defensive line led by Ezekiel Ansah and Haloti Ngata, with capable starters like Tyrunn Walker and Devin Taylor also in the mix.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

As big as the Ndamukong Suh loss was for the Lions, the loss of outside linebacker DeAndre Levy for most of the season with a hip injury (he played just 17 total snaps) was arguably just as big. Levy finished 9th among 4-3 outside linebackers in 2013 and 3rd at the position in 2014. Still, even without him, the Lions’ linebackers played well last season, as Josh Bynes and Tahir Whitehead graded out 13th and 14th respectively among linebackers on Pro Football Focus, on 818 and 588 snaps respectively, though middle linebacker Stephen Tulloch struggled, grading out below average in his first season back from a torn ACL.

Whitehead was re-signed for 8 million over 2 years this off-season as a free agent, a great deal considering how well he’s played over the past 2 seasons. The 2012 5th round pick has played 722 and 588 snaps over the past two seasons respectively, thanks to injuries to Stephen Tulloch in 2014 and DeAndre Levy in 2015. He’s graded out 13th among middle linebackers and 16th among linebackers respectively in those 2 seasons in run stopping grade on Pro Football Focus and he was noticeably better in coverage between 2014 and 2015, leading to that #14 overall finish among linebackers.

Bynes is a little bit less proven, as he had just 9 starts in 4 years in the league prior to 2015, when he started 11 games. Even with Levy coming back, there will still be a role for Bynes in the Lions’ linebacking corps in 2016, as the Lions let veteran middle linebacker Stephen Tulloch go this off-season, owed 5.5 million non-guaranteed in his age 31 season in 2016. Bynes will play primarily as a base package run stuffer outside, coming off the field in sub packages for a 5th defensive back. Levy and Whitehead, meanwhile, will start at outside linebacker and middle linebacker respectively and play essentially every down. With Levy returning, it’s a strong group.

Grade: A-

Secondary

The Lions really struck gold in the first 2 rounds of the 2013 NFL Draft. I already mentioned Ansah, the 5th overall pick that year, but cornerback Darius Slay, their 2nd rounder that year, is arguably just as valuable to this defense. There’s a reason the Lions just locked him up long-term for 50.2 million over 4 years, ahead of what would have been the final year of his rookie deal in 2016. That’s very reasonable considering Slay finished last season 2nd in the NFL among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. He’s a one-year wonder in terms of being that kind of a high level player, but he’s made all 32 starts over the past 2 seasons and also finished 19th among cornerbacks in 2014. Still only going into his age 25 season, Slay has a very bright future and present.

Along with Slay, safety Glover Quin is a very valuable asset in the defensive backfield for the Lions. Quin was a steal on a 5-year, 23.5 million dollar contract three off-seasons ago, coming over from Houston. Quin has graded out above average on Pro Football Focus in 6 straight seasons, dating back to 2010, and has finished 10th, 3rd, and 38th among safeties in 3 seasons in Detroit. He also hasn’t missed a game with injury in 6 seasons. Going into his age 30 season, coming off of a bit of a down year, it’s possible his best days are behind him, but he remains an obvious asset in the Lions’ secondary.

The other two starting spots in the secondary are much shakier though. Veteran starter Rashean Mathis retired this off-season. Even though he was going into his age 36 season and missed 9 games with injury last season, he’ll still be missed, as 2014 4th round Nevin Lawson struggled mightily in his absence last season, finishing 101st out of 111 eligible cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus, in the first significant action of his career. Lawson is penciled into the starting job to begin the season, largely for lack of a better option.

Meanwhile, at the other safety spot, the Lions lost James Ihedigbo and Isa Abdul-Quddas to free agency this off-season, so it’ll be a three way competition between free agent acquisitions Rafael Bush and Tavon Wilson, as well as 4th round rookie Miles Killebrew. None are good options. Killebrew is probably not ready to start in the NFL. Wilson was a 2nd round pick by the Patriots in 2012, but made just 4 starts in 4 years in New England and played just 83 snaps last season. He’s best off as a reserve. Bush has the most starting experience with 16 starts. The 2010 undrafted free agent has never played more than 520 snaps in a season though and missed all but 21 snaps last season with injury. That being said, he’s flashed in limited action and is probably the favorite here. Bush and Lawson would both be weaknesses in this secondary.

There is one more positive for the Lions in the secondary though, as 2015 6th round pick Quandre Diggs broke out as a solid slot cornerback as a rookie, finishing 33th among cornerbacks on 484 snaps. At 5-9 193, Diggs is a slot cornerback only and isn’t a serious candidate for the starting job outside opposite Slay, but he’s very valuable to them covering slot receivers in obvious passing situations; 333 of his 484 snaps played last season came on pass snaps. Like most of the team, there’s some talent here, but also noticeable issues.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Lions finished last year on a run offensively. Losing Calvin Johnson hurts and it’s unclear if they could keep that kind of play up over a 16 game season anyway, especially since their schedule wasn’t too hard down the stretch last season, but this team still has solid talent on both sides of the ball. They still have issues at running back and on the offensive line, which will make their offense one-dimensional again, but, even without Johnson, quarterback Matt Stafford has plenty of options to throw to, with Marvin Jones and Anquan Boldin coming in and Eric Ebron possibly poised for a breakout year. This team should be in the playoff mix in the NFC.

Prediction: 9-7 2nd in NFC North

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Green Bay Packers 2016 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Packers, Uncategorized

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers was on top of the quarterback world following the 2014 season, as Rodgers completed 65.6% of his passes for an average of 8.43 YPA, 38 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, en route to his 2nd career MVP award. Rodgers finished the season #1 among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus and the Packers boasted the league’s best offense, finishing #1 in rate of moving the chains. 2015 was a different story, however. Rodgers completed just 60.7% of his passes for an average of 6.68 YPA (both career lows), 31 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions and the Packers finished just 16th in rate of moving the chains.

What happened? Well, part of that is Rodgers himself, as he fell from #1 to #12 among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus, the lowest he’s been since 2008. Part of it was his supporting cast, which was close to perfect in 2014. The Packers didn’t have any big off-season losses on offense between 2014 and 2015, but they had the 3rd fewest offensive adjusted games lost to injury in 2014, which did not continue in 2015, as they finished 15th. Rodgers didn’t miss a game, but there were rumors that he was playing hurt, which would seem to be substantiated by the fact that Rodgers had knee surgery in January after the season ended. He’s going into his age 33 season, but he’s a good bet to bounce back and a be a top-5 quarterback again in 2015.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

Easily the Packers’ biggest offensive injury last season happened before the season even began, when #1 wide receiver Jordy Nelson tore his ACL in the pre-season and missed the entire season. Nelson combined for 183 catches for 2833 yards and 21 touchdowns between 2013 and 2014, finishing #2 among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus in both seasons. He was missed immensely and his return is the equivalent of signing a high level free agent. He may have lost a step, going into his age 31 season and coming off of a serious injury, but 90% of Jordy Nelson is still a top-10 wide receiver in the NFL.

In Nelson’s absence, 2014 2nd round pick Davante Adams was horrible, forcing the Packers to start veteran James Jones for most of the season; Jones is an ex-Packer who was brought in after being a final cut of the Giants. He didn’t have a bad year, but his best ability at this point in his career is his chemistry with Aaron Rodgers. The Packers decided against bringing him back as a free agent, ahead of his age 32 season in 2016, and he was eventually signed by the Chargers, where he is no lock to make the final roster.

Randall Cobb led Packer receivers in snaps played last season, but he too had a down year in 2015, grading out just about average. He’s been better in the past, finishing 11th among wide receivers in 2012 and 9th in 2014 (with a season lost to a broken leg in between) and a shoulder injury is likely to blame for his relative struggles in 2015. Like Rodgers, he has a good chance to have a bounce back year this year. His star isn’t shining quite as bright now as it was last off-season, when he signed a 4-year, 40 million dollar deal, but he’s still one of the best #2 receivers in the league and forms a fearsome duo with Jordy Nelson when both are healthy.

The #3 receiver role is still up for grabs. The Packers were expecting Davante Adams to be that guy by now, but he’s been so bad through 2 years in the league that he might not even make the final roster. He finished the 2014 season 99th among 110 eligible wide receivers on 738 snaps and then ended last year 109th out of 121 eligible on 763 snaps. The Packers used a 5th round pick on Trevor Davis out of the University of California and still have last year’s 3rd round pick Ty Montgomery (a running back/wide receiver/returner combo) and they could definitely keep Adams off the final roster, but neither are real candidates for the #3 job; Davis is too raw and Montgomery is not a traditional wide receiver.

Instead, it’ll be between Jared Abbrederis and Jeff Janis competing with Adams for the #3 receiver job. Janis was a 7th rounder in 2014 and flashed on 176 snaps last season, including a 7/145/2 performance on 35 pass snaps in their playoff loss to the Cardinals. Abbrederis was a 5th round pick in 2014, but Janis is probably the favorite, as both are inexperienced and Janis has outplayed Abbrederis is limited action through 2 years. Adams, the highest drafted receiver from that Packers’ 2014 draft, is probably the worst of the three players right now, but he still has a chance to turn that around.

One thing the Packers have never really had in the Aaron Rodgers era is a good pass catching tight end. They still don’t have one, but they do have a pair of solid pass catchers, after signing Jared Cook as a free agent. Cook is coming off the worst year of his career, leading to his release by the Rams, but was a solid tight end in the first 6 seasons of his career, prior to 2015, including a 2014 season in which he was Pro Football Focus 16th ranked tight end. Still only going into his age 29 season, he was a solid buy low signing on a 1-year deal by the Packers this off-season.

Cook will compete with incumbent starter Richard Rodgers for playing time, though it’s possible both see a similar amount of snaps. Rodgers was the better of the two players last season, finishing 17th among tight ends on Pro Football Focus, after struggling mightily on 491 snaps as a 3rd round rookie in 2014. The one issue with Cook and Rodgers is they are similar players and neither one of them is much of a run blocker. With Cook coming in, Nelson coming back, and Cobb likely bouncing back, it’s an improved receiving corps overall on a passing offense that should be improved overall.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

Along with Aaron Rodgers and Randall Cobb, another player who had a disappointing season in 2015 is running back Eddie Lacy. After finishing in the top-5 among running backs on Pro Football Focus in the first two years of his career in 2013 and 2014, totalling 2317 yards and 20 touchdowns on 530 carries (4.37 YPC), while adding 77 catches for 684 yards and another 4 scores through the air, Lacy rushed for just 758 yards and 3 touchdowns on 187 carries (4.05 YPC), added just 20 catches for 188 yards and another 2 touchdowns through the air, and fell to 20th among running backs on Pro Football Focus in 2015.

That’s not horrible and the fact that that’s considered a down year for him is just a reminder of how good he is when he’s right, but he was very frustrating for the Packers coaching staff because he had really good games (4 games averaging 5.0+ yards per carry) and really bad games (7 games averaging 3.0 or fewer yards per carry). With Lacy struggling, backup James Starks had almost as many touches as Lacy, but wasn’t any more effective, rushing for 601 yards and 2 touchdowns on 148 carries (4.06 YPC) and adding 43 catches for 392 yards and 3 touchdowns through the air. Starks is one of the league’s better backup running backs, but the Packers obviously would prefer Eddie Lacy return to form. He dealt with a combination of weight and injury issues (likely related) in 2015, but is reportedly in much better shape, after spending all off-season working out. If the Packers can be closer to 2014 than 2015 on offense, that should add a couple wins to this team’s total and put them right at the top among the league’s best teams.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

While the Packers’ offense should be better with Rodgers, Lacy, Nelson, and Cobb all returning close to 2014 form, the Packers suffered a significant loss this off-season when they shockingly made starting left guard Josh Sitton a final cut. Sitton was going into his age 30 season, but was a top-8 guard on Pro Football Focus in 7 straight seasons, only missed 2 games with injury over that time period, and was owed just 6.85 million in 2016. It’s a huge loss for this team and a move I simply don’t understand.

The Packers used a second round pick on Indiana offensive tackle Jason Spriggs and could start him at right tackle as a rookie, moving projected starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga inside to left guard, even though he’s never played there in the NFL. Bulaga has also always had injury issues, missing 32 games with injury in 6 years in the league (including 4 last season) and not playing in all 16 games since his rookie year. He’s a solid right tackle when healthy though, grading out above average in 3 of his last 4 seasons (excluding a 2013 season where he didn’t play a snap because of a torn ACL). He maxed out as Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked offensive tackle in 2011 and finished 34th among offensive tackles last season. It’s almost a guarantee he’ll miss a couple games with injury again though and it remains to be seen how he plays at guard.

In addition to losing Sitton, the Packers will also be without center Corey Linsley for the first 6 games of the season at least, thanks to a hamstring injury. Linsley is a great player when healthy, making 29 starts at center in 2 years in the league and finishing 5th and 10th at the position in 2014 and 2015 respectively, greatly exceeding his draft slot in the 5th round. He’ll be missed, but the Packers have enough talent returning at least close to form around him to make up for it, even without Sitton. He should also be back at some point this season and the Packers have a solid replacement in JC Tretter, a 2013 4th round pick who flashed on 373 snaps in his first career action at center. The collegiate offensive tackle is still unproven, but should be an adequate replacement to start the season.

Left tackle David Bakhtiari and right tackle round out this offensive line. A 4th rounder in 2013, Bakhtiari struggled in the first 2 seasons of his career, grading out 62nd among 76 eligible offensive tackles in 2013 and then 53rd out of 84 eligible in 2014, but leaped all the way to 26th in a breakout 3rd year in the league in 2015. He should be a solid left tackle for the Packers again this season, though it’s worth noting he’s a one-year wonder. Lang, meanwhile, has graded out above average in all 5 of those seasons, including 15th, 3rd, and 5th place finishes among guards on Pro Football Focus in the past 3 seasons respectively. It’s still a strong offensive line, but losing Sitton hurts, as does Linsley’s injury.

Grade: B+

Defensive Line

While essentially everyone returns on offense, the Packers did have a few losses on defense this off-season, including defensive lineman BJ Raji. Raji, a 2009 1st round pick, looked like a promising young defensive end following the 2012 season, in which he finished 7th among 3-4 defensive ends on Pro Football Focus. In fact, the Packers offered him a 5-year, 40 million dollar extension that he turned down ahead of the final year of his rookie deal. That would prove to be a mistake though.

Raji’s play severely declined in 2013, as he finished dead last among defensive tackles, which forced him to take a cheap one-year deal back in Green Bay. Raji then missed the entire 2014 season with a torn biceps, forcing him to take another 1-year deal with the Packers. Raji seemed healthy in 2015, playing in 15 games and, though he graded out below average, he wasn’t horrible either. He played 444 snaps in the regular season, 2nd most on the Packers’ defensive line, playing both nose tackle and defensive end. However, Raji decided to retire this off-season, ahead of his age 30 season.

The Packers replaced him with another 1st round defensive lineman, taking Kenny Clark out of UCLA. The 6-3 314 pound Clark isn’t as big as Raji, but he too can play both defensive end and nose tackle. The same is true of veteran Letroy Guion, who played alright on 330 snaps last season. Guion has plenty of starting experience (51 starts in 8 seasons in the NFL), but is better suited for a solely rotational role, as he has graded out below average in 6 of those 8 NFL seasons.

Mike Daniels is easily the Packers’ best defensive lineman, as he’s one of the best defensive linemen in the entire NFL. A 2012 4th round pick, Daniels emerged as a starter in 2013 and has finished 6th, 8th, and 3rd among 3-4 defensive ends on Pro Football Focus in the past 3 seasons respectively. The Packers re-signed him for 42 million over 4 years in December. Considering Fletcher Cox, a comparable player, just got 103 million over 6 years from the Eagles, while Malik Jackson, another comparable player, got 90 million over 6 years from the Jaguars, it’s clear the Packers got good value when they re-signed Daniels.

Datone Jones was 3rd on the defensive line in snaps played last season with 364, but he’s expected to move from defensive end to outside linebacker this season. The Packers brought in another defensive lineman through the draft, taking Dean Lowry, a defensive end out of Northwestern, in the 4th round. Lowry could see immediate action in a rotational role, while 3rd year player Mike Pennel should see an increased role this season. Pennel, a 2014 undrafted free agent, flashed on 287 snaps last season, though he will miss the first 4 games of the season after failing a drug test, a big blow to the Packers defensive line depth. There are some promising young players on this defensive line, including 1st round pick Kenny Clark, but it’s an uninspiring group outside of Daniels.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

As I mentioned, Datone Jones will be moving to outside linebacker this season. A 2013 1st round pick, Jones was undersized as a 3-4 defensive end at 6-4 285 and was never able to carve out more than a sub package role at the position. The 364 snaps he played last season were a career high and about 75% of them came against pass plays. He’s graded out above average in the last 2 seasons on limited snaps though, flashing as a pass rusher, so he could be a good fit as a 3-4 outside linebacker in base packages, if he can get his weight down into the 270-275 pound range.

Also moving to outside linebacker this season is Clay Matthews, who spent most of last season at middle linebacker. It’s far from an unfamiliar position for Matthews though, as the 2009 1st round pick spent the first 6 seasons of his career at outside linebacker prior to last season and was once one of the league’s best at the position. He played middle linebacker largely out of desperation last season and is expected to play only outside linebacker this season. It’s a wise move, as Matthews struggled out of position last season, particularly against the run.

He’s far more valuable to the Packers as an outside linebacker. Matthews was a top-6 3-4 outside linebacker in each of the first four seasons of his career, from 2009-2012. He’s going into his age 30 season and probably isn’t quite the same player anymore, after an injury plagued 2013 season, a 2014 season in which he fell to 18th among 3-4 outside linebackers, and a 2015 season where he finished 40th among 97 eligible linebackers at middle linebacker. Still, a return to his natural position should be good for him and the whole Packers’ defense.

Matthews will start opposite Julius Peppers. Peppers is the active all-time leader in sacks with 136 (9th all-time) and a likely future Hall-of-Famer, but he’s going into his age 36 season, making him one of the league’s oldest defensive players. That’s somewhat concerning. Peppers looked done following a 2013 season in which he finished 40th among 52 eligible 4-3 defensive ends and subsequently got cut by the Bears. Peppers bounced back in his first year in Green Bay, finishing 7th among 3-4 outside linebackers, but he fell much closer to the middle of the pack in 2015. His ability to play at a high level going forward is in doubt at this point.

Fortunately, the Packers have great overall depth at the position. I already mentioned Datone Jones, but Kyler Fackrell and Nick Perry will also be in the mix for snaps. Fackrell was a 3rd round pick by the Packers in the 2016 NFL draft, while Perry is a former 1st round pick (2012), who was brought back on a one-year deal this off-season. Perry has been a bust through 4 years in the league, as evidenced by the fact that the Packers declined his 5th year option. Instead, they brought him back for his 5th season for substantially less, 5 million. Injuries have always been an issue for him, as he’s missed 18 games in 4 seasons in the league.

Perry played just 351 snaps last season and has never played more than 374 snaps in a season. He hasn’t been a bad player, grading out above average in 2 of 4 seasons, including last season (he finished tied with Peppers as Pro Football Focus 58th ranked edge defender). If he can stay healthy, he should be able to push for 500 snaps this season, but that’s a big if. With so much depth at outside linebacker, expect guys like Julius Peppers and Datone Jones who can rush the passer from the interior in sub packages to do so with some regularity, which would allow the Packers to essentially get 3 or 4 of their base package outside linebackers on the field at the same time in sub packages.

The reason Matthews can move back to outside linebacker this season is because the Packers middle linebacker depth is a little better this season. It’s still a problem position, but there isn’t the need to play Matthews out of position there anymore. The Packers used a 4th round pick on Stanford linebacker Blake Martinez and have 2015’s 4th round pick Jake Ryan possibly ready for a bigger role. The Packers also use a lot of dime packages and frequently play a 3rd safety down closer to the line of scrimmage instead of a 2nd middle linebacker in sub packages.

That being said, neither Blake Martinez nor Jake Ryan is a good option. Rookies, particularly ones drafted in the 4th round, are tough to rely on, as good as Martinez has reportedly looked in practice. Ryan, meanwhile, was just a 4th rounder last year and struggled on 260 snaps as a rookie. It’s a deeper and improved group of middle linebackers this season, but still not a great group. The Packers’ outside linebackers are easily the strength of the Packers’ linebacking corps.

Grade: C+

Secondary

As I mentioned, the Packers frequently use 3 safeties in sub packages, rather than 2 middle linebackers. Those three safeties last season were Morgan Burnett, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, and Micah Hyde and all 3 return for 2016. Burnett and Clinton-DIx start at the position, with Hyde serving in a situational role. Burnett and Clinton-Dix were arguably the best safety duo in the NFL last season, finishing 4th and 8th respectively among safeties on Pro Football Focus.

It was easily the best season of either of their careers, but neither of them were bad players prior. Clinton-Dix was a 1st round pick in 2014 and played alright as a rookie. Now he looks like one of the best young safeties in the NFL. Burnett is more experienced, making 71 starts over the past 5 seasons. Though he had never finished higher than 16th among safeties prior to last season, he still has graded out above average in 4 of those 5 seasons and could easily have another strong year in 2016. I wouldn’t be surprised if Clinton-Dix and Burnett both finished as top-10 safeties again this year. Hyde, meanwhile, is not nearly as good, but has played 1800 snaps (22 starts) in 3 seasons in the league (since being drafted in the 5th round in 2013) and has been an overall decent player. He’s especially good in coverage, where the Packers need him most.

Though the Packers love using 6 defensive backs in sub packages, it does hurt the Packers’ depth immensely that they lost cornerback Casey Hayward to the Chargers in free agency. Hayward made 11 starts last season and finished 16th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. With Hayward out of the mix, Quinten Rollins and Damarious Randall, their 1st and 2nd round picks respectively in the 2015 NFL draft, will have to take on larger roles; those will be 2 of their top-3 cornerbacks along with veteran Sam Shields.

Fortunately, both looked good as rookies, particularly Rollins, who finished as Pro Football Focus’ 20th ranked cornerback on 323 snaps. Randall graded out slightly below average, but could be better in his 2nd year in the league. He’s expected to start opposite Shields with Rollins as the slot cornerback, but that could change this off-season. Shields is also a solid cornerback, finishing last season 25th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. He’s missed 17 games with injury in 6 years in the league and has never played all 16 games in a season, but has finished in the top-30 among cornerbacks 3 times in those 6 seasons.

The Packers also like 3rd year player Demetri Goodson, a 6th round pick in 2014. He’s expected to be their 4th cornerback and is probably part of the reason why they were comfortable letting Hayward walk. Goodson has barely played in 2 seasons in the league though, so he’s a huge projection to any sort of larger role. That being said, he’s probably not bad depth. The biggest concern is that he, like defensive lineman Mike Pennell, is suspended for the first 4 weeks of the season, after violating the league’s PED policy. Even without Hayward, it’s still a strong secondary.

Grade: A-

Conclusion

Despite the bizarre decision to move on from long-time starting guard Josh Sitton this off-season, the Packers return 8 of 11 starters (9 when Linsley gets healthy) from a 2014 offense that was the best in the league and could easily have a bounce back year and be one of the best offenses in the league again, led by perennial MVP candidate Aaron Rodgers. The defense isn’t nearly as good as the offense, but they have plenty of talent on that side of the ball as well, making this one of the league’s more talented teams. The Packers surprisingly lost the division to the Minnesota Vikings last season, but, with Teddy Bridgewater out for the season, the Packers have a great chance to reclaim the division crown in 2016.

Prediction: 11-5 1st in NFC North

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Chicago Bears 2016 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Bears, Uncategorized

Quarterback

Jay Cutler takes a lot of criticism, but he’s actually graded out above average in 5 of the last 6 seasons. He got a massive 7-year, 126.7 million dollar extension two off-seasons ago and promptly had the worst season of his career in 2014, finishing 32nd among 39 eligible quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus, which obviously got him a lot of criticism. However, Cutler quietly bounced back in 2015, completing 64.4% of his passes for an average of 7.58 YPA, 21 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions and finishing 14th among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus. His bounce back season helped get offensive coordinator Adam Gase the head coaching job in Miami. The Bears’ offense will miss Gase, plus Cutler is going into his age 33 season, so he could be getting close to the end, but you can still do a lot worse than Jay Cutler at quarterback.

Surprisingly, the Bears did not draft a quarterback in this draft. Considering Cutler’s age and the fact that he’s owed 15 million non-guaranteed in 2017, this could be Cutler’s final year in Chicago, but the Bears don’t have an obvious replacement for him. Instead, the Bears brought in veteran Brian Hoyer to be Cutler’s backup. Hoyer is not a bad addition, even though he’s going into his age 31 season. He struggled across 22 starts over the past 2 seasons, finishing 35th (out of 39 eligible) and 31st (out of 38 eligible) respectively among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus over the past 2 seasons, but he’s a solid veteran backup, something the Bears really needed last year.

In two games where Jay Cutler was injured last season, the Bears moved the chains at a pathetic 56.25% rate, as opposed to 72.17% in their other 14 games. Hoyer should be able to ensure that this offense can still be somewhat capable if Cutler gets hurt again. Unfortunately, if history is any indicator, Cutler is likely to get hurt again. He hasn’t suffered a lot of major injuries, but he hasn’t played all 16 games in a season since 2009. Hoyer should see some playing time this season. He’s just not the long-term starting option they need.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

While losing Gase could hurt Cutler in 2016, he should be helped by having significantly better health in the receiving corps. The Bears had the most adjusted games lost by wide receivers in the NFL (and the 5th most adjusted games lost overall). Alshon Jeffery, Kevin White, Eddie Royal, and Marquess Wilson were the Bears top-4 wide receivers going into last season, but they were limited to 9, 0, 9, and 11 games respectively injuries. In addition to that, tight end Martellus Bennett missed 5 games with injury. Bennett was traded to New England, but the other 4 remain and should be healthier this season.

Jeffery was fantastic when he was on the field last season, catching 54 passes for 807 yards and 4 touchdowns in 9 games, a 96/1435/7 slash line over 16 games. He also finished the season 3rd among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus. That’s in line with how he played in 2013 and 2014, when he finished 9th and 28th among wide receivers respectively and caught 174 passes for 2554 yards and 17 touchdowns in 32 games. He couldn’t shake lower body injuries last season, but has otherwise been healthy in his career. Even coming off an injury plagued season, the Bears couldn’t let him go this off-season, giving him the franchise tag. He didn’t get an extension this off-season, but, if he can stay healthy and play like he can in 2016, he’s going to get a monster deal from someone next off-season.

Even missing 7 games, Jeffery still led the team in receiving yards by a wide margin, as no one else had more than 464 yards. Wilson, who finished with 28 catches for 464 yards and a touchdown, actually led the team in snaps played by a wide receiver, despite missing 5 games with injury himself. He didn’t play well though, grading out below average and averaging just 42.2 yards per game. He’ll be no better than the #4 receiver this year with Jeffery, White, and Royal coming back healthy. White could be a huge addition, as the 2015 7th overall pick missed his entire rookie year with a broken leg. He’s obviously still unproven and inexperienced, but there is plenty of upside with him.

Eddie Royal will be the 3rd receiver and slot specialist. There’s plenty of bounce back potential here, after injuries limited him to 37 catches for 238 yards and a touchdown in 9 games last season. In his previous two seasons, Royal caught a combined 109 passes for 1409 yards and 15 touchdowns in 31 games, grading out above average in both seasons. Going into his age 30 season, it’s possible his best days are behind him, but, if he can stay healthy, he should be an asset to this team on the slot.

With so many receivers dealing with injury, it was tight end Zach Miller surprisingly leading this receiving corps down the stretch last season. Miller shockingly finished as Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked tight end on 579 snaps and caught 34 passes for 439 yards and 5 touchdowns, including a 29/381/4 slash line in the Bears’ final 8 games (58/762/8 over 16 games) That’s shocking, as Miller had been essentially out of the league for years, sitting out all of 2012-2014 thanks to injuries and ineffectiveness and playing 5 total games since 2011.

He was so good that the Bears re-signed him to a 2-year, 5.5 million dollar deal and traded incumbent starting tight end Martellus Bennett to New England this off-season. It’s a lot of faith to have in a player who is already going into his age 32 season and who has this extensive of an injury history. The Bears did not even bring in another tight end this off-season, leaving 2015 undrafted free agent Khari Lee to likely be the #2 tight end. He played just 130 nondescript snaps as a rookie. It’s obviously an overall very improved receiving corps though.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The Bears entered the off-season with among the most cap space in the NFL, but also with a bunch of different needs, including two new offensive tackles. Left tackle Charles Leno was horrible last season, finishing 55th out of 77 eligible offensive tackles. Riight tackle Kyle Long was better, finishing 37th, but that was a steep drop off from his 2014 season at right guard, when he finished 12th at the position. The Bears only ended up getting one though, signing Bobby Massie to a 3-year, 18 million dollar deal. Making matters worse, they overpaid for him. Massie has made 46 starts in 4 seasons in the league, but he’s only a right tackle and has graded out below average in all 4 seasons he’s been in the NFL. He’ll allow Long to move back to his more natural position at right guard, but he’ll be a liability at right tackle.

Leno, meanwhile, remains a liability at left tackle. The Bears like him and think he can take a step forward this season, but so far I haven’t seen any evidence that he can. He fell to the 7th round in 2014, struggled in limited action as a rookie, and then struggled mightily as a starter last year. The Bears used a 2nd round pick on Kansas State left tackle Cody Whitehair, but ended up moving him inside to left guard and cutting incumbent starter Matt Slauson after the draft. Whitehair was a great value in the middle of the 2nd and is probably a better fit at left guard than left tackle in the NFL, but Slauson played very well last season (finishing 8th among guards on Pro Football Focus) and the position wasn’t a need. Cutting Slauson, only owed 3 million in his age 30 season in 2016, didn’t make any sense.

At the very least, they could have slid Slauson inside to center. San Diego, who snatched up Slauson quickly and cheaply, moved Slauson inside to center. Meanwhile in Chicago, 2015 3rd round pick Hronnis Grasu was supposed to be the starting center in his 2nd year in the league in 2016, but tore his ACL, leaving the job to veteran Ted Larsen. Larsen is plenty experienced, with 57 career starts in 6 years in the NFL at left guard, right guard, and center, but has graded out below average in all 6 seasons, including 72nd out of 81 eligible guards in 2015. Along with left tackle and right tackle, center is a position of weakness for the Bears upfront.

The only reliable starter the Bears have upfront is 2012 1st round pick Kyle Long. Long wasn’t horrible at right tackle last season, but it’s obvious he’s more comfortable and more value at right guard, where he finished 43rd and 12th respectively among guards in the first 2 seasons of his career in 2013 and 2014. Still only going into his age 28 season, Long has made 47 of 48 starts in 3 seasons in the league and could easily have a big year back at his natural position. The Bears seem confident in him long-term, giving him a 4-year, 40 million dollar extension this off-season, with 2 years left on his rookie deal. Overall though, it’s an offensive line that figures to be a liability for the Bears this season.

Grade: C-

Running Backs

Along with Slauson, the Bears also lost running back Matt Forte this off-season, a big loss. Not only did he have a strong 8-year tenure in Chicago, rushing for 8602 yards and 45 touchdowns on 2035 carries in 120 games, while adding 487 catches for 4116 yards and another 19 touchdowns, but he also was very good for the Bears last year. He finished 10th among running backs on Pro Football Focus, caught 44 passes, 3rd most on the team, and averaged 4.12 yards per carry on 218 carries. The rest of the team rushed for 3.80 yards per carry on 251 carries.

With Forte gone, the Bears will use three different running backs. Jeremy Langford, who took on a larger role down the stretch as a 4th round rookie in 2015, will likely be the lead back. Langford caught 22 passes for 279 yards and a touchdown, but struggled on the ground, rushing for just 537 yards and 6 touchdowns on 148 carries, an average of 3.63 yards per carry. He finished 46th out of 69 eligible running backs on Pro Football Focus. Ka’Deem Carey and Jordan Howard will also be in the mix. The former is a 2014 4th round pick who has rushed for 317 yards and 2 touchdowns on 79 carries (4.01 YPC) in 2 years in the league, while the latter is a 5th round rookie. It’s an underwhelming group and, with a weak offensive line as well, the Bears should struggle to run the ball this season.

Grade: C-

Defensive Line

As I mentioned, the Bears had among the most cap space in the NFL coming into the off-season. In addition to spending that cap space franchise tagging Alshon Jeffery, bringing in Bobby Massie, and re-signing Zach Miller, the Bears also added 3 new starters on defense and re-signed cornerback Tracy Porter. One of those new defensive starters is defensive end Akiem Hicks, who comes over from New England on a 2-year, 10 million dollar deal. He’ll likely start at defensive end on the Bears’ 3-man defensive line.

Hicks replaces Jarvis Jenkins, who led this defensive line in snaps played with 636 in 2015, and has a very good chance to lead the defensive line in snaps himself in 2016. Hicks is plenty experienced, with 33 career starts in 61 games in 4 years since getting drafted in the 3rd round in 2012 by the Saints. While he’s not a spectacular player, he has graded out slightly above average in all 4 seasons he’s been in the league. He was a smart, inexpensive signing and will be an upgrade over the departed Jenkins.

The Bears are hoping Ego Ferguson can start at the other defensive end spot. Ferguson’s status is very much in doubt though, as he tore his patellar tendon in October. That type of injury is nearly impossible to come back from, especially in less than 11 months, so my guess is he will not be available for week 1. The 2014 2nd round pick also had yet to show much before the injury, playing 318 nondescript snaps as a rookie and then missing all but 4 games with injury last season. Instead, it could be 3rd round rookie Jonathan Bullard starting opposite Hicks. A borderline first round talent, Bullard was a steal in the middle of the 3rd and could have an immediate impact.

Also in the mix for snaps are Will Sutton and Mitch Unrein. Sutton has 12 starts in 2 years in the league, since going in the 3rd round in 2014, and took over as the starter down the stretch last season after Ferguson and departed veteran Jay Ratliff got hurt, but he’s struggled mightily in both seasons he’s been in the NFL. He graded out 70th among 81 eligible defensive tackles on 465 snaps in 2014 and then 114th out of 123 eligible interior defenders on 419 snaps in 2015. Unrein, meanwhile, is a veteran journeyman with just 7 starts in 70 career games. He was underwhelming on 388 snaps in 2015 in his first year in Chicago. Neither is a particularly good option.

Nose tackle Eddie Goldman might be their best defensive lineman, though he only plays about half the snaps (515 in 2015) as a pure base package run stuffer. The 2015 2nd round pick finished 36th among interior defenders as a rookie and could be even better in his 2nd year in the league. He actually wasn’t bad as a pass rusher as a rookie either and could see more playing time in sub packages in 2016 as a result. He and Hicks are both solid players, but it’s an overall underwhelming defensive line. Ferguson is dealing with a major injury, Bullard is just a rookie, and none of their other depth options are reliable.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Bears used their first round pick on Georgia outside linebacker Leonard Floyd, moving up from 11 to 9 to grab him ahead of the Giants, who had the 10th pick and were known to be interested. Floyd played in a 3-4 at the University of Georgia and will play the same position on the edge in Chicago’s defense. It was a bit of surprising pick and didn’t make a lot of sense to me. Not only was Floyd somewhat of a reach that high (he’s still undersized at 6-6 244), but he doesn’t fill an obvious need for the Bears, as Pernell McPhee, Willie Young, LaMarr Houston, and Sam Acho, their top-4 outside linebackers last season, all return. The Bears could have addressed much bigger needs at that pick. Cornerback Eli Apple, cornerback Vernon Hargreaves, defensive end Sheldon Rankins, and offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil went 10-13 respectively and all four would have filled bigger needs for the Bears.

Acho is on a one-year deal, while Houston could be a cap casualty next off-season, owed 6 million non-guaranteed in his age 30 season in 2017, so Floyd could get a bigger role in 2017, but there isn’t an obvious path to playing time for the 9th overall pick as a rookie. McPhee and Young finished #1 and #2 in snaps played among Chicago outside linebackers with 594 and 524 respectively and both played at a high level, grading out 3rd and 13th respectively among 3-4 outside linebackers.

McPhee was a great signing on a 5-year, 38.75 million dollar deal last off-season. As good as he was last season, he played through a bad knee. He only missed 2 games, but was limited in many others. In 2014, when he was healthy, he also finished 3rd among 3-4 outside linebackers. The 2011 5th round pick and graded out above average in all 5 seasons in the NFL, including three seasons in which he’s finished in the top-3 at his position (he was #3 among defensive tackles in 2011 too). Versatile enough to play anywhere from outside linebacker to defensive end to defensive tackle, the 6-3 275 pounder is Chicago’s defensive MVP. However, it seems like he’s still not past his knee issues and could miss time to begin the season, which would obviously a huge loss for this defense. That would open up some playing time early in the year for Floyd.

Young is not as high profile of a player, but he’s quietly an above average starter who has now proven himself in both a 4-3 and a 3-4 defense. Young has graded out above average in 4 of 6 seasons in the league between Chicago and Detroit. He was also 13th among 4-3 defensive ends in 2013. He was briefly benched and actually at one point a healthy scratch early in the season, as he struggled to learn the new system, but he figured it out by season’s end for sure. He requested a trade mid-season last year, but signed a 2-year, 11.05 million dollar extension this off-season, ahead of what would have been a contract year in 2016. Even in his age 31 season, Young should have a solid year or better in 2016. It’s not clear how Floyd fits in long-term behind both McPhee and Young.

Like McPhee, LaMarr Houston is also a versatile player capable of playing anywhere from outside linebacker to defensive tackle at 6-3 270. Houston, a 2010 2nd round pick, graded out in the top-20 among 4-3 defensive ends in every season from 2011 to 2013, earning him a 5-year, 35 million dollar deal from the Bears two off-seasons ago. However, he tore his ACL early in 2014 and wasn’t the same player in a new position in 2015, finishing slightly below average. With Floyd coming in, Houston could see even fewer snaps than the 417 he saw last season and is likely going to be a cap casualty next off-season, owed 6 million non-guaranteed in his age 30 season in 2017.

Acho, meanwhile, will likely be the 5th outside linebacker, if he even makes the team. He was the only one of the bunch who struggled last season, finishing 83rd out of 110 eligible edge defenders. Acho has plenty of experience, with 39 career starts in 5 seasons in the league, but has graded out below average in 4 of 5 seasons in the league. It’s overall a ton of depth at the outside linebacker position, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but they have big holes at other positions. Both McPhee and Houston can rush the passer from the interior in sub packages, and they likely will pretty often, given the Bears’ lack of defensive line depth, but it’s still hard to see everyone being able to play as much as they should.

Middle linebacker is the position where the Bears improved the most this off-season, as the other two starters they added in free agency were middle linebackers Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman. Trevathan signed a 4-year, 24.5 million dollar deal, coming over Denver, where he used to play for head coach John Fox, who is now the head coach in Chicago, while Freeman signed for 12 million over 3 years, coming from the Colts. Trevathan finished 11th among 4-3 outside linebackers in 2013 and 10th among linebackers in 2015 (with a season lost to injury in between). Injuries have otherwise never been a concern, as he’s missed just one other game due to injury in his career. He was a steal for 24.5 million over 4 years.

Freeman was actually better than Trevathan last year, finishing 4th among linebackers. He’s never been anywhere near that good in any of his other seasons, even finishing 39th out of 60 eligible middle linebackers in 2014, and he’s highly unlikely to match the best season of his career in his age 30 season in 2016, but he was also a steal on that 3-year, 12 million dollar deal. Christian Jones, who led all Bear linebackers with 745 snaps played in 2015, returns as a backup to both Freeman and Trevathan and actually wasn’t terrible last season, finishing 38th out of 97 eligible linebackers in the first significant action of his career, since going undrafted in 2014. It’s a deep and talented linebacking corps across the board.

Grade: A

Secondary

The Bears used their first round in 2014 on Kyle Fuller, a cornerback out of Virginia Tech. Fuller played all 16 games as a rookie (making 14 starts), but was hobbled by an ankle injury for most of the year and finished 107th out of 108 eligible cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus as a result. He was a lot better in his 2nd year in the league though, finishing 37th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. A talented, high-upside player who is only going into his age 24 season, his future is bright and he could easily take another step forward in his 3rd year in the league in 2016. The one concern here is he had off-season knee surgery which puts his status for week 1 into question.

The Bears desperately need Fuller to stay healthy, given their lack of cornerback talent after him on the depth chart. I mentioned earlier the Bears re-signed cornerback Tracy Porter, but they overpaid him on a 3-year, 12 million dollar deal. Porter has plenty of experience with 73 career starts, but has graded out below average in 6 straight seasons, including 78th out of 111 eligible in 2015. Going into his age 30 season, he’s unlikely to be better going forward. He’s also missed 46 games with injury in 8 years in the NFL. Making matters even worse, the Bears have no depth at the position or better starting options.

That’s the reason Vernon Hargreaves or Eli Apple would have made a lot of sense in the first round instead of Leonard Floyd. Instead, the Bears did not take a cornerback until the 4th round, when they grabbed Deiondre Hall. He’s probably not ready for action as a rookie, but he may have to be at some point this season. For now, 2015 undrafted free agent Bryce Callahan is the favorite for the #3 cornerback job, covering the slot in sub packages. Callahan was okay on 329 snaps as a rookie, finishing 60th out of 111 eligible cornerbacks. Undersized at 5-9 187, playing on the slot masks a lot of his flaws, but he’s still tough to rely on it that role and also isn’t a serious candidate to start outside.

At safety, the Bears struck gold in the 5th round last year with Penn State’s Adrian Amos. Amos made 16 starts as a rookie and finished as Pro Football Focus’ 29th ranked safety. He’s an obvious starter in 2016 and a nice young building block for this team. The Bears will have to hope they struck gold again in the mid rounds, as Deon Bush, a 4th round safety out of Miami, is in the mix to start at the other safety spot, following the release of the declining Antrel Rolle, ahead of his age 34 season.

Bush’s primary competition will be Chris Prosinski, a 2011 4th round pick who has never been much more other than a special teamer and reserve in his career. He struggled on 342 snaps last season. 6th round rookie DeAndre Houston-Carson could be the mix and there are some that feel Deiondre Hall, given his size at 6-2 199, is going to end up at safety long-term. The fact that so many mid-round rookies are in the mix for that starting job should tell you all you need to know. They’re unlikely to strike gold again, as they did with Amos last season. It’s a secondary with a lot of problems.

Grade: C

Conclusion

Jay Cutler gets a lot of weapons in the passing game back healthy, including #1 wide receiver Alshon Jeffery, but he loses offensive coordinator Adam Gase and doesn’t figure to get much help from his offensive line or his running game. The Bears failed to upgrade the offensive line position this off-season and also let talented left guard Matt Slauson go, rather than moving him inside to center where they needed him. Along with Slauson, Matt Forte is gone and leaves behind a weak backfield. Both of those players were aging veterans, but the Bears still don’t have the talent to replace them. Outside of Jeffery and Kyle Long, it’s not a talented offense. Defensively, their front 7 is much improved and could mask a lot of the secondary’s problems, but this roster doesn’t seem talented enough to make the playoffs.

Prediction: 6-10 4th in NFC North

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