Last week overall: 12-2
Last week ATS: 5-7-2 (-305/-1 units)
Overall picks: 101-59 (.631)
Upset Picks: 3-1 (-60/-1 units)
ATS Picks: 65-88-7 (-8970/-69 units)
Survivor picks: 9-2 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI, NO, SF, DAL, SD, ATL)
Upset picks: 17-20 (+1690/-1 units)
Detroit Lions 34 Green Bay Packers 31 Upset Pick (+230)
Pick against spread: Detroit +6 (-110) 4 units (-440)
The Packers come into this Thanksgiving game at 10-0. The Lions come in 1-8 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2002, but they haven’t been as good as they are now since 2002. The Lions come in at 7-3, fresh off a demolition of the Panthers 49-35. They come in scoring 30.1 points per game, 3rd in the league, making them one of three teams (Green Bay, New Orleans) to score over 30 points a game.
There are several reasons why the Packers could have trouble with the Lions this Thanksgiving and for that reason I think the stars are aligned for a loss for the Packers. First of all, the Packers are on the road. They’ve been significantly worse on than road than at home. Carolina, Minnesota, and San Diego all hung within a touchdown or less of the Packers on the road and even wins against the Bears and Falcons weren’t blow out. The Bears lost by 10 and it should have been 3, but a late punt return was called back on the biggest phantom penalty of all time. They trailed 14-0 in Atlanta before Atlanta stopped being able to move the football.
Secondly, the Lions have an explosive offense, as I mentioned earlier, over 30 points per game. The Packers have only played two legitimately explosive offenses, the Chargers and the Saints. They scored 35 and 34 points respectively against them. Their pass defense is their Achilles heel. I think very good passing offenses can score with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers enough to keep it close.
Thirdly, the Packers have to travel on a short week. Home teams are 9-3 ATS on Thursday Night Football since 2010 and that includes the Lions loses on Thursday Night Football to the Patriots last year, when, as I mentioned, they were not nearly as good of a team.
Finally, this is essentially the Lions Super Bowl. They’ve had this game circled for weeks, if not the entire season. The Packers are undefeated Super Bowl champions, division rivals, and the Lions have frequently disappointed on Thanksgiving. Finally with a solid team, I think they really want to take advantage and get what would be a huge win here. For the Packers, they also want a win, obviously, but not as badly. In fact, after seeing what happened to the Patriots in 2007, some might even not want to get regular season perfection.
Even if the Lions don’t win, as I think they can, I think they have a really good chance of covering. As I said earlier, the Panthers, Vikings, and Chargers all hung within 7 points of this team on the road, why can’t the significantly better Lions? Also, as I mentioned earlier, they are the Thursday home team and the win would mean more for them. On top of that, I think Vegas is underrating them. The Packers were -14 for Tampa Bay at home. This line suggests Detroit would be -12 at Green Bay. I disagree. This is a very good football team, especially with Kevin Smith having stepped up to give them a legitimate threat on the ground.
Dallas Cowboys 24 Miami Dolphins 13
Pick against spread: Dallas -7 (-105) 3 units (-315)
The Dolphins are on fire right now. After starting the season 0-7 and looking destined for Andrew Luck and the #1 pick, the Dolphins have won 3 in a row by a combined score of 86-20. Matt Moore has made Dolphin fans forget about Andrew Luck by going 51 of 72 (70.8%) for 613 yards (8.5 YPA) and 6 touchdowns to one interception and the defense has held all 3 opponents to single figures.
So what happened? How did the 0-7 Dolphins turn into the ‘72 Dolphins? Well they have been playing better, I’ll give them that, but also look at their schedule. They’ve played Kansas City, Washington, and Buffalo, 3 teams playing horrible football at the moment. The Dallas Cowboys are a completely different monster. It’s one thing to hold Matt Cassel, Rex Grossman, and Ryan Fitzpatrick to single digits. It’s another to hold Tony Romo to single digits, especially considering Romo’s 18-2 November record.
The Cowboys didn’t look so great against the Redskins last week, but they still came away with a win to improve to 6-4 and it’s very possible they just overlooked the lowly Redskins. They won’t overlook a team hot on a 3 game winning streak. Besides, this is their annual Thanksgiving game. They always get up for this game. I guess you could say they’re the anti-Lions. Since 2001, the Cowboys are 9-2 ATS on Thanksgiving and Tony Romo is 5-0 all time on Thanksgiving, winning by an average of 22 points. The Cowboys have also covered in their last 6 Thanksgiving games, including their lone loss on Thanksgiving since 2006, last year to the Saints when Tony Romo was hurt. One more fun trend in Dallas’ favor, teams that allow 21+ points and still win the week before are 141-98 ATS since 2008.
Besides, I think Miami’s winning streak has skewed this line a little too much. 3 weeks ago, the Dolphins probably would have been +13 or so here. St. Louis was +13 in Dallas and Washington was +7.5 at home, so essentially +13.5 had that game been in Dallas. The Dolphins have been playing better of late, but considering their schedule, I don’t think they’ve played well enough to get bumped up 6 whole points by Vegas.
The final reason why this game is going to be especially tough for the Dolphins is because they’ll be traveling on a short week. Thursday road teams are 3-9 ATS since 2010. They’re at a huge disadvantage for this reason. I don’t think they have enough to overcome all that’s stacked against them this week, even though they have looked good against terrible competition in the past 3 weeks.
Baltimore Ravens 17 San Francisco 49ers 10
Pick against spread: Baltimore -3 (-120) 2 units (+200)
Harbaugh. Harbaugh. This is a matchup of Jim Harbaugh’s 49ers and John Harbaugh’s Ravens in what could be one of the best games of the year considering these two teams combined 16-4 record. This is also a matchup of two of the best run defenses in the league, in fact, the two best in my opinion. The 49ers led the league in fewest yards allowed with 739, while the Ravens rank 5th with 932. However, the Ravens rank first in YPC with 3.3, whereas the 49ers rank 4th with 3.6.
Considering that, I think the winner of this game is going to go to whichever quarterback plays better. Joe Flacco hasn’t had the best season and he’s been very inconsistent. However, he always seems to plays his best against good competition, as do the Ravens as a whole. Despite loses to Seattle, Jacksonville, and Tennessee and almost Arizona, the Ravens have two wins over the Steelers, a win over the Jets, a win over the Texans, and a win over the Bengals.
The 49ers meanwhile, have some nice wins, but let’s take a closer look at their signature wins. They beat Cincinnati 13-8 week 3. Cincinnati is a quality opponent, but I don’t think the Bengals were quite as good as they are now (the Ravens beat them last week) back in week 3. Andy Dalton and company have gotten better as the season has gone on. They beat Tampa Bay and Detroit, but both of those teams are young teams and were coming off Monday Night wins. They beat the Giants which is impressive, but the Ravens are a better team than the Giants. They also beat Philadelphia, but they suck. The Giants are the only good, veteran team they’ve beaten. The Ravens are going to be their biggest team of the season, whereas the Ravens have beaten teams like the Steelers who are at least on the same tier as the 49ers.
The 49ers also haven’t played a good team with a good run defense yet, unless you count the week 3 Bengals (3rd) but I don’t because they lost to Kyle Orton and the Broncos the week before. Tampa Bay ranks 25th, Detroit ranks 30th, and the Giants rank 23rd. Baltimore can take away Frank Gore and make Alex Smith beat them. I don’t think he can do that. The 49ers will definitely take away Ray Rice as well, but I trust Flacco more than I trust Alex Smith. He’s at his best against his best competition and I think he leads them to victory in an ugly low scoring game here.
On top of all this, the 49ers do have to travel across the country for a Thursday Night Game, which is going to be rough. As I’ve said twice, road teams are 3-9 ATS on Thursday since 2010. On top of that, they have to travel 3 time zones across the country. They’ve done that 4 times this season and won all 4 of those, but they haven’t had to do it on short rest before. I think this game will push their East Coast record to 4-1. This line is still just a field goal so given that I can take the home team ATS with some confidence. One more fun trend in Baltimore’s favor, teams that allow 21+ points and still win the week before are 141-98 ATS since 2008.
Atlanta Falcons 24 Minnesota Vikings 17
Pick against spread: Minnesota +9.5 (-115) 1 unit (-115)
Bad news for the Vikings. Adrian Peterson is out. Toby Gerhart will get the start and he does have some talent (it seems like everyone forgot he was the Heisman runner up in 2009), but I don’t know how good of a game he’ll have Atlanta has one of the league best run defenses, surrendering 3.6 YPC. The burden of the offense will fall completely on Christian Ponder for the first time in his career. Considering he’s completing 52% of his passes and has more interceptions than touchdowns, I don’t give the Vikings much of a chance in this one.
Well I guess this won’t be the first time Ponder has had to shoulder the load. He had to do so against the Raiders last week after Peterson went down. The Vikings led 7-0 with possession when Peterson went down and didn’t score again until garbage time. At the end of the 3rd quarter, they were down 27-7 and this was against the Raiders. The Falcons are a different animal entirely.
One thing to focus on is that Ponder did led the Vikings to two garbage time 4th quarter scores to pull to game to 27-21. The Falcons are only 2-3 ATS as 9+ point favorites in the Mike Smith era so there’s some cause for concern there. Also, as good as the Falcons are at home in the Mike Smith era, they’re only 4-4 ATS as 7 point favorites. On top of that, the Vikings have only lost by more than a touchdown twice this season and one of those instances was against the Packers so that hardly counts. The Packers are awesome.
On the other hand, the Falcons are amazing in the Mike Smith era after not covering, going 16-5 ATS, though only 2-2 ATS this season. After not covering in a game in which they won, however, they are just 3-3 ATS, which is the case this week. Overall, I don’t have a good feel for this game. The Vikings could easily get blown out without Peterson, but the Vikings could also be down 14 late and get a bullshit backdoor cover to pull within 7. I’m taking the points, but I’m not that confident in it.
Cincinnati Bengals 17 Cleveland Browns 13
Pick against spread: Cleveland +7.5 (-120) 3 units (+300)
The Cleveland Browns are 4-6…4-6? How is this possible? Well, wins over Indianapolis, Seattle, Jacksonville, and Miami (the Chad Henne version) will do it. Even less impressive, all 4 of those wins were by 8 or fewer, 3 of them (excluding Indianapolis) were by 4 or less. The Bengals will be much tougher for them and they’ve already lost to them once this season, and that game was in Cleveland.
However, I do like the Browns chances to cover here for several reasons. I mentioned they lost to the Bengals earlier this season. They were actually favorites in that game. Dogs trying to avenge a divisional loss as favorites are 73-51 ATS since 2002, and a whopping 20-2 ATS after a loss of 13or less. The Bengals don’t fare too well as favorites anyway. In the Marvin Lewis era, the Bengals are 4-11 ATS as favorites of 7+. They’re also a mere 6-13 ATS as favorites in general since 2009.
On top of that, this is a classic sandwich game. The Bengals are favorites before and after being underdogs. Favorites after losing as a dog and before being dogs are 45-68 ATS since 2008. The Browns lost to the Ravens last week and have to go to Pittsburgh next week so they might see this game as a breather.
You might be thinking, the Browns are a divisional opponent, surely they’re try their hardest. However, teams struggle ATS even in an all divisional sandwich, divisional favorites after losing as divisional dogs and before being divisional dogs. There isn’t a lot of data on this, but teams in this situation are 2-5 ATS since 2002 and 13-21 ATS since 1989.
On top of that, the Bengals aren’t the same team without Leon Hall. Hall is done for the season. Besides, the Bengals aren’t built to blow teams out anyway so I really like the Browns changes to keep this within a touchdown. I’m not picking the Browns to win because they aren’t very good, but this line is more than a touchdown so I have some confidence betting on the Browns ATS given the situations in their favor. This is a revenge game for the Browns and a possible breather game for the Bengals, who aren’t very good as favorites, particularly big favorites, anyway.
Carolina Panthers 27 Indianapolis Colts 13
Pick against spread: Carolina -3 (-125) 3 units (+300)
The Colts have to win one of these weeks right? No. No they don’t. They’re awful. They’re also coming off a bye, which ordinarily might help, but with these stupid bye rules, bad teams are worse coming out of their bye. Teams ranked 17-32 in my power rankings are 3-11-1 ATS off of a bye this season, as opposed to 10-3 ATS for the teams ranked 1-16. The Colts are the worst team in the league so I really can’t see the bye helping them at all.
The Panthers have an explosive offense led by Cam Newton, but they have a terrible defense. They gave up 49 points to the Lions last week and blew a huge early lead, 24-7. However, they should be in the clear this week. The Colts are too inept to take advantage of their defense. This is going to be a blowout. The Panthers have an explosive offense. Teams that score 35 points or more and still lose are 9-3 ATS since 2008, 21-12 ATS since 2002.
The only type of team that the Colts can beat is a conservative grind it out team that will keep the game close and let the Colts use their awesome pass rushers. The Panthers are not that team and a team just like that, the Jaguars, beat them 17-3 at home. They had so many chances to win that game, but they couldn’t. That’s how bad they are. This one’s not going to be very close. If you can get this game at -3, even with extra juice, put 3 on it. Anything higher than 3, put two on it.
Houston Texans 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 10
Pick against spread: Houston -3.5 (-110) 2 units (+200)
This was a tough one. Matt Schaub is out. Obviously that hurts them. However, the Jaguars pushed as 10 point underdogs in Houston a few weeks ago with Schaub playing. 10 point underdogs on the road is equal to being 4 point underdogs at home, so Vegas is saying that losing Matt Schaub only makes the Texans a half point worse. That makes no sense. On top of that, the public is pounding Houston this week. More than 90% of the action is on the road dog missing its starting quarterback.
However, at the same time, Schaub isn’t the only injury affecting this game. The Jaguars are missing Rashean Mathis, as well as defensive tackle Terrance Knighton and the Texans are getting Andre Johnson back from injury. The Jaguars injuries on defense might be too much for them considering that’s the only reason they’re not awful this season. Blaine Gabbert has made 8 starts and completed more than 50% of his passes 4 times and thrown for over 120 yards 4 times. He hasn’t even looked good against Indianapolis or Cleveland and the Jaguars have scored more than 14 points twice all year
Besides, how bad are the Texans without Matt Schaub? Matt Leinart isn’t very good at all, but the Texans have the league’s #2 scoring defense and the league’s #2 rushing offense, as well as receiving options in Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels. All Matt Leinart has to do is not screw everything up and given the Texans’ greatness on defense (remember how bad they used to be) and the Jaguars awfulness on offense, the Texans should be able to cover this line with 17 or 20 points. Matt Leinart can do that right?
The Jaguars are awesome in divisional revenge games, going 14-5 ATS in this situation under Jack Del Rio. Better remember the Texans are in a good situation as well, coming off a bye. Teams in the top half of my Power Rankings are 10-3 ATS off a bye this season. In general, road favorites off a bye are a whopping 40-13 ATS since 2002. Even this season with weird bye rules, they’re 5-1 ATS. It makes sense, good teams are road favorites and good teams are focused off a bye.
Finally, the Texans are in their first game missing their starting quarterback. Teams tend to cover in this situation because Vegas and their opponent are underestimating them. This team is clearly more than their quarterback. Matt Schaub wasn’t even having that good of a season before he got hurt. Their passing offense is ranked 15th in the league. Some of that might have had to do with Andre Johnson’s absence, but he’s back.
Even better, the Texans are missing their starting quarterback after a bye. They’ve heard for two weeks how they’re done without Schaub. They’re still a talented team with cohesion coming out of a bye, 2 weeks for Leinart to get work with the starting unit, and they’ll be very motivated to prove their doubters wrong. There are contrasting situations and angles here, but I think the Texans do have the edge because of the Jaguars’ poor offense, road favorites’ amazing ATS record after a bye, and their general level of motivation to prove they’re not done without Schaub.
New York Jets 27 Buffalo Bills 9 Survivor pick (NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI, NO, SF, DAL, SD, ATL, NYJ)
Pick against spread: NY Jets -9 (-105) 2 units (-210)
The Bills may have started the season 3-0, 4-1, and 5-2, but in their last 3, they’ve lost 106-26, starting with a 27-11 home loss to the Jets. They have numerous injuries on both sides of the ball, stud center Eric Wood, stud nose tackle Kyle Williams, Shawne Merriman, and now Fred Jackson, an early MVP candidate, looks like he’ll be out for this game. Given that, I don’t think the Bills have much of a chance in this one.
I really don’t think this line has taken into account how awful the Bills have been in recent weeks, against teams that are both good and teams that are bad (Miami). 3 weeks ago, the Bills were -1.5 at home, the equivalent of +4.5 on the road. Now they’re +9 on the road, a swing of 4.5 points, which I don’t think is enough.
On top of that, the Jets are going to be really motivated here after losing two in a row. At 5-5, they need a win to stay in the playoff hunt. They’re also rested off a Thursday Night game. They’ve had 10 days to prepare for the lowly Bills, which just doesn’t seem fair. Teams after a Thursday Night Game are 36-26 ATS since 2008. Finally, the Bills are in their 3rd straight road game as an underdog, a situation teams are 11-24 ATS in.
St. Louis Rams 23 Arizona Cardinals 13
Pick against spread: St. Louis -3 (+110) 3 units (-300)
Oh boy! Another NFC West matchup! This one happens to be a rematch of a game from a few weeks ago. The Rams dominated that game for the most part, out-gaining them 383-262, but they lost in overtime 19-13 on a punt return touchdown. They also had a field goal blocked in regulation. That game was in Arizona, so it’s safe to say that the Rams are the better team on a neutral field, barring any bizarre special teams happenings.
This game isn’t on a neutral field, as the rematch will take place in St. Louis. This gives St. Louis an advantages. Excluding the 2011 49ers, NFC West teams are just 18-31 ATS on the road in the last 2 years, 10-19 ATS on the road within the division since 2009. The Rams had both of those trends against them when they lost in Arizona. Now they have them working for them.
On top of that, the Rams will want to get revenge for that bizarre loss. Teams trying to avenge an overtime divisional loss are 12-4 ATS since 2008. That makes sense as that overtime loss will give them extra motivational to get revenge against a hated divisional foe. Given that they’re at home and the better team and looking for major revenge, I feel confident putting a few on the Rams here.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26 Tennessee Titans 17 Upset Pick (+165)
Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +3.5 (-120) 4 units (-480)
This is do or die time for the Buccaneers. At 4-6, the playoffs are not impossible, but very unlikely. If they lose this week, their season is over. I think they know that and will play like that. On top of that, they’re in their 2nd straight road game, a situation teams are 153-119 ATS in since 2008, 76-57 ATS in their 2nd straight as dogs. Road dogs after a road loss are 160-109 ATS since 2002, 59-38 ATS since 2008. If you like very specific trends, teams that cover, but don’t win as road dogs of 10+ are 16-4 ATS the next week as road dogs of 3+.
As for Tennessee, I’ve said they’re overrated all season. They’re not as good as their 5-5 record suggests. Their 5 wins are against Baltimore, which means nothing because Seattle and Jacksonville beat them too, Denver, Cleveland, Indianapolis, and Carolina. Tampa Bay has been very inconsistent all season, but they seem to be better on the road, 14-5 ATS on the road under Raheem Morris, as opposed to 6-16 ATS at home. They got better as last season went on and they could easily do the same thing this year. They looked better last week against Green Bay.
Chicago Bears 23 Oakland Raiders 20 Upset Pick (+200)
Pick against spread: Chicago +4.5 (-105) 3 units (-315)
Jay Cutler is done for the season so the Bears are obviously done right? Not necessarily. Caleb Hanie proved in the NFC Championship game last year that he can play. Mike Martz has had success with random, overlooked quarterbacks before, finding Kurt Warner in a grocery store and then finding Marc Bulger in the 6th round of the draft. Hanie is a good fit for Martz’ system and I think he can have some success with him.
On top of that, the Bears still have Matt Forte, who might be the most involved running back in the NFL. His 1391 total yards rank tops in the league this season and he’s an excellent blocker on top of that. He gives them a chance to stay competitive offensively, especially with an underrated signal caller in Caleb Hanie. The Raiders can’t stop the run very well. Their 5.2 YPC allowed is tied for worst in the league with New Orleans so I think the Bears can run the ball very effectively and take the pressure off of Hanie. And of course the Bears have an awesome defense. They weren’t 7-3 and on a 5 game winning streak just because of Cutler.
Cutler’s injury could easily cause the Raiders to overlook them this week. Meanwhile, the Bears supporting cast will play at 110% to make up for the loss of Cutler. They’ve been hearing all week how they’re finished without Cutler, yet they have one of the best running backs in the league, one of the best defenses in the league, a 7-3 record, a 5 game winning streak, a quarterback who almost led a comeback in the NFC Championship game last year, and an offensive coordinator who has won with overlooked quarterback before. Finally, Vegas has them underrated here as 4.5 dogs in Oakland. I feel pretty good about betting on the Bears this week.
Seattle Seahawks 23 Washington Redskins 10
Pick against spread: Seattle -3.5 (-105) 3 units (-315)
The Redskins almost won last week. They took the Cowboys to overtime and missed a makeable field goal for the win, losing 27-24. Rex Grossman actually played well, completing 25 of 38 for 289 yards, 2 touchdowns, and a pick. However, now the Redskins have to pick up the pieces and travel all the way to the Pacific Northwest. I think they could be really flat off of that loss and given that Grossman played well last week, I honestly think that makes it more likely he’ll suck this week. He can’t have two good performances in a row.
Besides, it’s not like the Redskins are traveling just anywhere. They have to play at Qwest Field. As opposed to 13-26 ATS on the road, the Seahawks at 25-13 ATS at home since 2007, 13-5 ATS as home favorites, and they haven’t even been very good since 2007. The Seahawks have a clear home field advantage in this one.
Speaking of home field advantage, normal home field advantage adds 3 points to the line so this line is basically saying that the Seahawks are .5 points better than the Redskins and we’re getting smaller juice. I completely disagree with that. The Seahawks have 4 wins and the Redskins have 3 and haven’t won since week 4. And that doesn’t even take into account that the Seahawks’ opponent should probably be given 4 points at Qwest, considering how good they are at home, and it doesn’t take into account that Washington could be very flat this week.
New England Patriots 31 Philadelphia Eagles 21
Pick against spread: New England -3.5 (-110) 2 units (+200)
The Eagles have saved their season. This isn’t to say they’re going to make the playoffs now, but if they had lost to the Giants in New York, they’d fall 4 back, without the tiebreaker, with 6 to go, so essentially 5 back with 6 to go. Now they sit just 2 back of New York with 6 to go. Not a great position to be in, but not impossible. The Eagles played very well against the Giants in their first game with Vince Young, but I’m not necessarily sure that will happen again.
I do happen to think that Vince Young is a very underrated quarterback. Without him, the Titans were under .500 during his time in Tennessee and with him their record was about .650. Now he’s 1-0 with a team that was 3-6 without him. That has to mean something. However, his supporting cast probably won’t play with the same intensity as they did last week against the Giants. They just won a must win game against a divisional rival with a backup quarterback. It’s going to be very tough for them to maintain that level of intensity for two weeks in a row. I wouldn’t be surprised if they were flat this week.
At the same time, what if those Eagles are here to stay? Andy Reid teams do always get better as the season goes on. From week 11 on, they are 50-33 ATS in the Andy Reid era, as opposed to just 61-56 ATS before then. Their winning percentages are significantly different as well. They are 66-52 before week 11 and 55-27 after. On top of this, Andy Reid’s teams are always better as underdogs. They’re best when they’re being overlooked, going 44-28 ATS as underdogs, 24-13 ATS as underdogs off a win.
However, I really think the Patriots are on a roll now. Their loss to the Giants reminded me a lot of their loss in Cleveland last year. They came out with the same sort of intensity against New York that they came out with against Pittsburgh last year after the Cleveland loss and they didn’t loss the rest of the way. The Patriots blew the Chiefs out 34-3 last week, on MNF no less, which of course means that they fit the roll of a team coming off a win of 21+ on MNF, a situation teams are 23-11 ATS in since 2002. Tom Brady, meanwhile, is 10-5 ATS after MNF, 8-3 ATS after a MNF win.
The Patriots are playing really good football right now. Surprisingly, since the Buffalo loss, the Patriots are surrendering 17.7 points per game and they’re not beating up on the little sisters of the poor. They’ve played teams like Dallas, Oakland, the Jets (twice), the Giants and the Steelers. As long as the offense plays well, the Patriots should cover this spread.
I really like their chance to do so. DRC is out and Nnamdi Asomugha is probably out for the Eagles, which means they essentially will have the same secondary this week that they had last year when they were one of the worst pass defenses in the league. On top of that, they still can’t stop the run and there’s no way in hell their weak linebackers will be able to slow down Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. I’m not terribly confident in this because there are a lot of conflicting trends and I wish this line was -3 and not -3.5 (if you can get -3, put 3 on it), but I’m putting 2 units on this.
Denver Broncos 20 San Diego Chargers 17 Upset Pick (+220)
Pick against spread: Denver +6 (-110) 5 units (+500)
This line makes absolutely no sense. The Chargers are 3 points better than the Broncos? What?! The Chargers have 4 wins and are on a 5 game losing streak, while the Broncos have 5 wins and are 4-1 in their last 5. Tim Tebow almost led the Broncos to a 16 point comeback after being put in mid game against the Chargers earlier this season so he’s obviously able to score points on them.
Besides, Tim Tebow just wins games. Philip Rivers just loses them. It’s really that simple. They’re polar opposites. Tebow motivates his teammates, gets better in the clutch, can pick up big chunks of yardage on the ground, opens things up for the running game and can make the occasional clutch throw. Philip Rivers just does stupid stuff and turnovers the ball over constantly. Oh and his coach is a moron.
Denver also has the better defense, as strange as that may sound. They rank 23rd in rush defense, perfect for the run heavy Broncos offense to gash them. The Broncos rank 15th. The Broncos are also allowing fewer points and have more sacks, with is also important because the Chargers have a banged up offensive line. Von Miller is a beast. He and the rest of this defense should allow the Broncos to control the clock, especially since Philip Rivers is going to have a few turnovers this week again, and keep it close and conservative and win a close one.
I’m predicting a close game with Tebow leading a late comeback, probably off a Philip Rivers red zone turnover with the lead. That just seems like how this game is going to go right? Even if it doesn’t, we have 6 points of wiggle room to work with because of this ridiculous line. The Broncos are going to be able to control the clock with their run game so it’ll be close either way. Finally, this is the Broncos biggest game of the season. If they win this one, they’d have wins against all 3 of their division rivals since Tebow took over. They’ve also been preparing longer. They haven’t played since Thursday. Teams are 36-26 ATS the week after a Thursday game since 2008. Tebow and company are my pick of the week again.
Pittsburgh Steelers 31 Kansas City Chiefs 9
Pick against spread: Pittsburgh Steelers -10.5 (-110) 3 units (-330)
The Steelers haven’t been very good under Mike Tomlin as big road favorites. They’re 4-9 ATS as road favorites of 5+ and 2-6 ATS as road favorites of 7+. However, the Steelers are coming off a bye here. They’ll be extra focused. Road favorites after a bye are a whopping 40-13 ATS since 2002, 9-4 ATS as road favorites of 7+. Besides, good teams (teams ranked in the top 16 of my power rankings) are 10-3 ATS after a bye this year.
I really can’t see this one being close. The Chiefs have gotten blown out by every good team they’ve played over the last 2 seasons. That’s not an exaggeration. They’ve played 12 .500+ teams since 2010. Of those 12 games, they’ve won 3 (week 1 Chargers last year, Jaguars with their 3rd string quarterback last year, Raiders in Carson Palmer’s first start this year). That means they’ve lost 9. Of those 9 losses, 7 of them were by double figures, 6 of them were by 20 or more, and 4 of them were by 30 or more, including 3 this season. And with the exception of last week’s loss at New England, all of those games were with Matt Cassel at quarterback.
Tyler Palko is terrible. If he can only score 3 points against the Patriots, I don’t see any way that he gets out of double figures this week unless he gets a long touchdown run from one of his running backs, but Jamaal Charles is out, so that’s unlikely. A special teams score is probably his best shot to get into double figures, but the Steelers can score too.
On top of all this, teams, teams coming off a loss of 14+ on MNF are 26-46 ATS since 2002, 2-10 ATS after a loss of 28+. I think we’re looking at another Chiefs blow out, so even though the Steelers do struggle as road favorites, I feel comfortable betting on them, especially given how good road favorites are after a bye and how good the good teams in the league have been off a bye this season.
New Orleans Saints 34 New York Giants 20
Pick against spread: New Orleans -7 (-105) 2 units
Remember when the Giants were 6-2 and coming off a win against the Patriots, with a 2 game lead on the division? Well now they’re 6-4, tied with the Cowboys for first in the division, and only two games up on the Eagles and now facing another tough game in New Orleans. The Giants are very good at blowing divisional leads down the stretch and they seem to be up to more of their old tricks. Under Tom Coughlin, they’re 47-17 straight up in the first half of the season and 24-34 straight up in the second half of the season. Weeks 9-12 are typically their worst stretch, as they’re 10-19 ATS under Tom Coughlin in that stretch.
Meanwhile, the Saints are another good team off a bye. As I’ve mentioned before, good teams off a bye are 10-3 ATS this year. The Saints may not be road favorites, but non-divisional home favorites are 42-24 ATS after a bye since 2002, so that is similar. Here at home in the Superdome, I expect them to get a big home win here over the suddenly reeling Giants.
LV Hilton Super Contest: Denver +6, Detroit +6.5, Tampa Bay +3, Chicago +5, Pittsburgh -10.5 (24-31)
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