I have broken my sleepers into 4 categories this year. Mid Round Upside Picks, Mid Round Value Picks, Late Round Upside Picks, Late Round Value Picks. A Mid Round Upside Pick, as I will list here, is anyone available in the late rounds (13^th-15^th) of a 12 team draft, that has the potential to be a lot more productive than where they are getting drafted. They aren’t guaranteed to be great players, but they have the potential to be worth a lot more than where they are drafted.

All average draft position (ADP) stats are as of 9/1/10 and were found at ESPN.com. ADP stats serve to provide you an estimate of when you should take these players and when you can expect them to be off of the board and thus ADP stats are crucial when dealing with upside and value picks.

WR Brandon LaFell CAR 

ADP: 170th 

8/10/10: As I suspected he could, Brandon LaFell is shining in Steve Smith’s absence and is likely to beat out the terrible Dwayne Jarrett for the #2 receiving job. John Fox doesn’t normally start rookies, but that just goes to show you how talented a 3^rd rounder this kid is and how horrible a receiver Dwayne Jarrett is. Smith is extremely injury prone so LaFell would have major value in his absense and Smith is also 5-9 so the 6-2 LaFell is probably going to be Matt Moore’s favorite goal line wide out. He is some, but not huge fantasy upside this year and is worth a late round pick in some leagues.

6/29/10: If anyone is going to benefit from Smith’s injury, it’s LaFell. LaFell hasn’t been seeing a lot of time with the first time in practice, but that’s because Carolina coach John Fox always gives veterans the first shot at winning a starting job and LaFell is a 3^rd round pick rookie. 4^th year receiver Dwayne Jarrett has been getting all the first team reps in camp opposite Smith, but with Smith out, Fox really has no choice but to give LaFell more work. If he impresses with the first team, he could take the job from Jarrett. There’s no question in my mind that LaFell is more talented than Jarrett, even as a rookie. Jarrett has been horrible in his first 3 years since being drafted in the 2^nd out of USC. He has, on many occasions, looked completely lost on the football field. If LaFell takes the starting job from him, he could have some fantasy value, especially if Smith doesn’t come back 100% opposite him. I’m not ready to make him a sleeper yet, but keep your eye on him. 

WR Mike Thomas- JAC

ADP: 170th

I loved Thomas coming out of school and he will be the #2 receiver for the Jaguars this year. He should be able to get close to Torry Holt’s yards from 2009, 772 yards. He’s not an endzone threat, but he could end up leading the team in receiving yards if Mike Sims Walker stays inconsistent next year.

TE Jermaine Gresham- CIN

ADP: 140th

I have no idea how Gresham will be used this year. The Bengals have never had a pass catching tight end of his caliber in the Carson Palmer era. I don’t know how his knee will be after the surgery he had last year and I don’t know how he’ll respond to his first competitive football since 2008 (thanks to knee surgery). I do know that, if used right and healthy and 100%, he has the talent to be a fantasy starter caliber tight end this year, even as a rookie. There’s risk here, but if you’re looking for a high upside tight end to pair with a more reliable guy like Heath Miller, Gresham’s a solid option. 

RB Bernard Scott- CIN

ADP: 148th

6/29/10: If Benson gets suspended, Scott looks like the go to back. He’s very talented and can put up numbers for you. Scott was already a fantasy sleeper of mine because of Benson’s history of injuries and arrestes, but now he becomes even more of a fantasy sleeper as Benson’s history rears its head again.

Cedric Benson is not the most durable guy in NFL history and he had a ton of carries last year, 301. If Benson gets hurt this year, Scott will benefit and be a solid RB2 for a few weeks. Benson’s 2009 may have also been a fluke.

 

QB Josh Freeman- TB

ADP: 170th

Freeman put in a ton of work in the off season and he has former 1^st round pick talent. He had a horrible and horribly inconsistent rookie year last year, but he has upside of this year because of his work ethic and his natural physical abilities and talent. His supporting cast won’t help him out as much as Sanchez’ or Stafford’s will, but he still is a high upside QB2. 

WR Mike Williams- TB

ADP: 136th

8/31/10: Williams has looked amazing this preseason and is the clear #1 wide receiver for the Bucs.

QB Matt Moore- CAR

ADP: 170th

Moore wasn’t much better than Clausen in their 2^nd preseason game as, even without Darrelle Revis, the Jets secondary completely shut down the Panthers aerial attack. However, Clausen’s performance was so bad he all but eliminated himself from the starting job competition. Moore looks like the guy and therefore an interesting late round sleeper. Despite his 2^nd week performance, Moore is still a talented and underrated quarterback who put up solid numbers to end the last year. He is the reason why I believe the Panthers will win many games against spread. This is a very underrated bunch.

WR Legedu Naanee- SD 

ADP: 170th 

9/3/10: The Chargers have traded for Patrick Crayton who will likely cut into Naanee’s targets. 

9/2/10: With Jackson out, Naanee would become a starter in the Chargers offense. He has looked decent in the preseason and has some late round upside. 

7/24/10: If Jackson holds out, Naanee will be their starter for 6 weeks, instead of 3. He’ll probably go to the bench when Jackson shows up, but they might be so mad at him they don’t even hurt him. Naanee is a shot at a very good and surprising fantasy season.

WR Louis Murphy- OAK

ADP: 145th

8/24/10: With Schilens out, the 2^nd year Murphy shined. Murphy was their best receiver when he played last year, with Darrius Heyward Bey struggling and Schilens not 100% after his foot injury, and if Schilens is less than 100% again or misses anytime, Murphy could be a solid WR3 for a few weeks. He’s worth a look late in your fantasy draft. He’d be a huge fantasy player if Schilens missed any time with a foot injury or knee surgery.

WR Brandon Gibson- STL

ADP: 170th

8/31/10: Someone has to lead the Rams in receiving with Avery down…right? With Avery down and Laurent Robinson unable to catch a single ball, on 4 targets, in his absense, Gibson, who showed flashes of good things to come last year as a rookie, could end up as the top receiver in St. Louis. 

TE Rob Gronkowski- NE

ADP: 170th

8/31/10: Gronkowski definitely doesn’t look like a rookie this preseason. He’s a big physical tight end and he should be the starter in New England’s explosive offense. He’s not going to be a top 15 tight end of mine, but he’s certainly someone to keep your eye on. He looks like a true end zone weapon. 

WR Brian Hartline- MIA 

ADP: 170th

8/31/10: Hartline has looked good in the preseason so far and with Greg Camarillo gone, there are fewer talented receivers to steal receptions from him. He’s someone to keep your eye on as Miami’s #2 receiver. 

WR Mike Williams- SEA

ADP: 170th

9/3/10: Housh is out. Deion Branch is injury prone. That leaves Mike Williams and Deon Butler as the only two potentially fantasy worthy receiver on the team. Williams is more athletic than the 2nd year Butler, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Butler ended up the team leader in receiving yards. 

 

 

Middle Linebacker

Boston College

6-3 242

Draft board overall prospect rank: #7

Draft board middle linebacker rank: #1

Overall rating: 91 (Top 10 pick)

40 time: 4.50

Games watched: Clemson/Boston College, Boston College/Maryland

Positives

·         Incredibly productive (534 tackles, 35.5 for loss, 2.5 sacks, 10 pass deflections, 7 interceptions, 2 forced fumbles in just 3 years)

·         3 year starter

·         Incredibly consistent (double digit tackles in every game but 4, 9+ tackles in every game but 2, both of which were the first 2 games of his collegiate career)

·         Leader on and off the field

·         Excellent motor

·         Excellent work ethic

·         Intelligence

·         Passion

·         All the intangibles

·         Takes excellent routes to the ball

·         Excellent tackle technique

·         Rarely misses a tackle

·         A nose for the football

·         Very good in coverage – particularly in zone

·         Makes plays on the ball in the air

·         Reads the quarterbacks’ eyes

·         Instinctive

·         Excellent, fluid hips

·         Gets deep in his drops in coverage

·         A willing and capable special teamer

·         Literally did everything for Boston College (4 down linebacker, who played every type of special teams imaginable)

·         Great athleticism (4.50 40, 38 inch vertical, 10-2 broad jump)

·         Good bench press numbers (27 reps of 225)

Negatives

·         Not as good at shedding blocks as you’d expect

·         Not a pass rusher

·         Not a big hitter (only 2 forced fumbles)

·         Only average on field strength

·         Plays a position of low value

·         Might be too small for some 3-4 defenses

NFL Comparison: Jerod Mayo

Luke Kuechly might be the cleanest player in this draft class. He has everything you love in a linebacker. He’s a phenomenal tackler who has 534 tackles in just 3 years, with 10+ tackles in 34 of 38 games and 9+ tackles in each of his last 9. He’s got all the intangibles. He never comes off the field. He has a great motor, great intelligent, great leadership, great work ethic, great passion and love of the game, and he’s squeaky clean off the field. He’s a phenomenal athlete with 4.5 speed and above average leaping ability, as well as above average bench press strength. He’s also excellent in coverage so he can play all 3 downs (4 if you count special teams).

His weaknesses are minor. He’s a tad bit undersized for some 3-4 defenses and he’s not great at shedding blockers, though in today’s NFL neither of those things are big deals. He isn’t a big hitter, with only 2 forced fumbles, but he more than makes up for that with all of his other production. He’s not a pass rusher, but he covers so well that it doesn’t matter. He’s the first non-rush linebacker I’ve ever given a top 10 grade and I think he has a solid chance to go there on draft day.

He’ll probably come off the board sometime between 9 and 12 as Carolina at 9, Buffalo at 10, Kansas City at 11, and Seattle at 12 will all have interest. I have him to Seattle, but I acknowledge that all of the other 3 are options. He reminds me a lot of another linebacker who went very high in the draft, Jerod Mayo, who the Patriots surprisingly took 10^th overall in 2008.

Mayo has more than lived up to that draft pick with 501 tackles in 4 years (59 career games). He’s also been very good in coverage and when he’s rarely missed a game, his absence is noticeable. He’d played in both a 3-4 and a 4-3 for New England. Kuechly is best fit in a 4-3, but can play in some 3-4s, which is why Kansas City (a 3-4 team run by Scott Pioli, who was on New England’s staff when they took Mayo) is a frequently mocked destination for him.

Kuechly is one of 6 elite talents in this draft class in my eyes (Luck, Griffin, Kalil, Richardson, DeCastro, and Kuechly), but will be devalued because of his position. Position aside, he’s the 5^th best player in this draft class. Position factored in, I have him 7^th in that 2^nd tier with guys like Richardson (also hurt by his position) Coples, Mercilus, Claiborne, Floyd, and Blackmon, all 2^nd tier talents.

 

 

Look, I don’t have anything against Matt Moore. He can be a solid backup and that’s what this deal pays him like, 5 million over 2 years. The reason they get an F is because after resigning Moore, they announced they would not be going after Kyle Orton. I don’t understand this at all. This team was 30^th in the league in scoring offense last year and 14^th in the league in scoring defense. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out why this team went 7-9 last year. They’ve done a great job of fixing the running game and the offensive line this offseason.

They just needed to fix their quarterback situation. Kyle Orton, by no means, is a franchise quarterback. However, he’s not going to kill you with turnovers like Chad Henne, he has had a ton of success with Brandon Marshall in the past, and with a good supporting cast like the Dolphins have, he can get you 9-10 wins next season. You’re not going to win a Super Bowl with him, but he’s well worth the 3^rd rounder they refused to give up for him.

Grade: F

 

 

3-4 Defensive End/Defensive Tackle

Purdue

6-3 294

40 time: 4.86

Draft board overall prospect rank: #42

Draft board 3-4 defensive end rank: #6

Overall rating: 79* 

            3/28/10: Mike Neal is a very impressive defensive lineman prospect from the Purdue Boilermakers. He’s had 10 sacks in the last 2 years against a higher level of competition than he is given credit for (Big 10). He has amazing quickness and a very good set of pass rushing moves. His straight line speed is athleticism are very good for his size. He is a bit undersized, but he’d be a perfect fit as a 3-4 defensive end because of his pass rushing moves and his agility and athleticism. He gets into the backfield with great ease and gets his way around bigger offensive linemen with sneaky quickness. He is a very smart pass rusher and has good size against the run, though he can be run at a bit. He’s very fundamentally sound and hits hard with good wrap up and doesn’t often miss. He was again impressive in the Senior Bowl, but the necessary hype around him is not there yet, likely because of the lack of national attention Purdue gets, despite being a part of the Big 10. He probably will go in the 3^rd round, but some smart GM may take him in the 2^nd as a 3-4 guy. He deserves to be a 2^nd round prospect, that 3^rd tier interior rusher after Suh/McCoy and Odrick/Price.

NFL Comparison: Darnell Dockett

*For a breakdown of what this means, click here

 

Offensive Tackle

Colorado

6-8 307

Draft board overall prospect rank: #43

Draft board overall offensive tackle rank: #7

Overall rating: 79 (Early 2nd)

40 time: 4.97

3/11/11: Solder lost 12 pounds off his already skinny frame in 2 weeks, a very bad sign. He’s at 6-8 307 now and may have maxed his frame after putting on 25-30 pounds in the last 3 years to convert from tight end to left tackle.

2/15/11: Nate Solder is a very interesting prospect. He is a former blocking tight end who put on about 30-35 pounds over 3 years to become Colorado’s starting left tackle. He was the only underclassman on the Big 12 first team’s offensive line in 2009 and he was a consensus All-American in 2010, despite being so new at the position. He still maintains a lot of his athleticism from his tight end days and should run a 40 in the 4.8-4.9 range.

He has long arms, which suggests he still has room to put more weight on his frame, which could be necessary. 315 pounds is still fairly skinny for 6-8 1/2. He was compared to Tony Boselli several times during the Senior Bowl and is the consensus top tackle right now. He’s my #2 tackle. I think Anthony Costanzo is more polished, but he’s definitely got the bigger upside.

He was very inconsistent at The Combine, looking extremely athletic and overpowering at times during practice, but struggling his technique against more polished defensive linemen in the game. He gets too high and doesn’t bend his knees naturally, but he just needs some coaching. In my opinion, he’s best starting off as a right tackle, where he won’t have to deal with such polished pass rushers. He definitely has left tackle upside and the potential to be one of the best at the position someday. 

NFL Comparison: Robert Gallery 

Day 1 Stock Report 

Day 2 Stock Report 

Day 3 Stock Report

Day 4 Stock Report 

Day 5 Stock Report 

Day 6 Stock Report 

That’s it from the Combine in Indy. All of my Scouting Reports, Positional Rankings, as well as my “should” mock draft, and my Big Board, will be updated by the end of the weekend. My positional rankings will expand to top 15 by positions (for all positions except nose tackle, center, and maybe guard) and my Big Board will go to top 150. 

 

 

()=Previous ranking (post-draft) 

32(30). Cincinnati Bengals

After winning the division in 2009, hopes were high in Cincinnati, especially with Terrell Owens coming in during the offseason. Unfortunately, Carson Palmer’s struggles, the ego of the T-Ocho show (it’s no coincidence Palmer had his best games when both were hurt), and injuries on defense left them at 4-12… (read more)

31(32). Washington Redskins

Rex Grossman predicts the Redskins will win the NFC East. Rex Grossman is wrong. Don’t get me wrong, I love that he made that prediction. I love unfounded confidence in sports. I love when a team down 3-0 in a series predicts a series win. I love when a team currently out of the playoff race predicts they will win… (read more)

30(29). Carolina Panthers

The Carolina Panthers had the worst record in the league last year and they were rewarded with the league’s toughest schedule. That’s what you get for being in the same division as Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and New Orleans. They play 6 games against those 3 teams and could easily lose all 6. They also play Green… (read more)

29(31). Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks went into week 17 in an interesting situation last year. They were 6-9 and missing their starting quarterback. If they lost by 15+, they’d set a record for most losses in a single season by 15+ with 10. For those of you who can’t do math, that would have meant that they lost all 10 of their games by 15+. However… (read more)

28(19). San Francisco 49ers

In the prime of the Mike Singletary era (by prime, I mean when people actually thought this team had a shot at making the playoffs), this team was known for its defense. However, the offense has somehow become the team’s best unit and no, it’s not because the offense got that much better. Alex Smith is still their… (read more)

27(22). Oakland Raiders

After losing the Super Bowl in 2003, the Raider endured 7 straight seasons of 11 losses or more. Last year, they rose to 8-8. This year, I’m projecting a regression for several reasons. First, they lost a significant part of their team in free agency. Nnamdi Asomugha was their best player, hands down. He’s gone. Zach… (read more)

26(21). Denver Broncos

The fans want Tim Tebow. Tim Tebow might not be the best quarterback on their roster. He might be, but he might not be. However, we know what Kyle Orton is. Kyle Orton is boring. Kyle Orton can get you to the playoffs if you have a good supporting cast, but he won’t win any games and if he doesn’t have a good… (read more)

25(18). Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins had an opportunity to contend for a playoff spot. All they had to do was send a 3rdrounder to Denver for Kyle Orton. Orton isn’t a great quarterback or anything, but this team has a good defense and they fixed the running game and offensive line in the offseason so all he’d have to do is not turn the ball over… (read more)

24(23). Tennessee Titans

The Titans are cleaning house. Former Head Coach Jeff Fisher is gone after 17 seasons, replaced with Mike Munchak. Vince Young is gone, as is Kerry Collins, who retired. They drafted Jake Locker with the 8th overall pick and signed Matt Hasselbeck to be a stopgap for them until Locker is ready to… (read more)

23(27). Jacksonville Jaguars

All the Jaguars had to do was beat the Colts week 15 and they had the division and the playoffs wrapped up with 2 weeks to spare. However, they didn’t beat the Colts week 15. Then they lost week 16. Then they lost week 17. They ended up missing the postseason entirely, finishing 8-8 as the Colts once again… (read more)

22(25). Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs improved from 4-12 in 2009 to 10-6 in 2010. But did they actually get any better? That can be tough to tell because of how easy Kansas City’s schedule was last season. In 2010, Kansas City played 4 games against teams with better than a .500 record (including playoffs). They went 1-3 in those games… (read more)

21(24). Buffalo Bills

The last time the Buffalo Bills made the playoffs, Bill Clinton was still president (1999). The main reason for that is inconsistent (or consistently bad) quarterback play. Is Ryan Fitzpatrick that quarterback to get them back to the playoffs? I doubt it. Chan Gailey’s offense has always inflated quarterbacks’ stats… (read more)

20(28). Minnesota Vikings

Brett Favre was amazing in 2009 and this team almost went to the Super Bowl. Brett Favre was terrible in 2010, getting benched for Joe Webb, who also sucked. Now, former Eagles’ and Redskins’ quarterback Donovan McNabb is the starting quarterback and many Vikings fans feel he can get them back into the… (read more)

19(16). Chicago Bears

The Bears went 11-5 and made the NFC Championship game last year, but I never bet big money on them to win ever. I didn’t trust them. Jay Cutler is an interception prone quarterback and offensive coordinator Mike Martz is a coordinator whose system leads to a lot of turnovers (a lot of yards and touchdowns too… (read more)

18(20). Cleveland Browns

3rd round pick Colt McCoy took over week 6 as the starter, as a rookie, after 5 weeks of Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace. He lost by a lot in his debut against the Steelers, but after that, he had 4 straight strong performances. The Browns beat the Saints and the Patriots in consecutive games, and then came… (read more)

17(17). Detroit Lions

In 2008, the Lions won no games. If they had forfeited every game, their record would have been the same. However, that seems like a long way away now. Bottoming out was what this team needed after a long stretch of terrible play. Bottoming out allowed them to start fresh with new personnel in the front office… (read more)

 

16(13). New York Giants

In 2004, the Giants started 4-1 before finishing 6-10. In 2006, they started 6-2 before finishing 8-8. They still made the playoffs and lost to the Eagles in the first. In 2007, they started 6-2 before finishing 10-6. They eventually got their act together and won the Super Bowl, but their 2nd half struggles were still… (read more)

15(12). St. Louis Rams

In 2009, the Rams won 1 game. Rookie quarterback Sam Bradford instantly made this a better team as the Rams won 7 games and almost made the playoffs. Bradford was 354 for 590 (60.0%) for 3512 yards (6.0 YPA), 18 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. That might not sound great, but consider that he lost Mark… (read more)

14(11). Pittsburgh Steelers

Of the last 10 Super Bowl runner ups, only 3 have made the playoffs the next season, combining to win 1 playoff game. The last time a team won the Super Bowl after losing it the year before was the early 70s. The Steelers have made the Super Bowl three times in the Big Ben era. The last two times they made the Super Bowl… (read more)

Prediction: 9-7 2nd in AFC North

13(15). Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers went 10-6 in 2010 and almost made the playoffs. However, after LeGarrette Blount took over as the starting running back week 7, and added a new dimension to their offense, rushing for 5 yards per carry out of the backfield, they didn’t lose by more than a touchdown for the rest of the season, hanging… (read more)

12(26). Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals obviously felt they were a quarterback away from being a legitimate Super Bowl contender because they spent a 2nd round pick and a starting cornerback to get Kevin Kolb. However, Kevin Kolb is not Kurt Warner and their supporting cast is not the supporting cast it was in 2009 when they won… (read more)

11(8). Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys bottomed out last season. Once a popular pick to become the first team to play in a Super Bowl the same season that they hosted the Super Bowl, the Cowboys started the season 1-7 and finished 6-10. However, it wasn’t all bad. Wade Phillips is finally gone. The Cowboys were never going to win a… (read more)

10(7). Baltimore Ravens

Joe Flacco has more wins in his first 3 seasons than any quarterback not named Dan Marino, but there is one thing he’s yet to do and that’s beat Ben Roethlisberger. Flacco has beaten the Steelers twice in those 3 years, but that was when Ben was out of the lineup. Roethlisberger has gotten the best of Flacco… (read more)

9(14). New York Jets

This offseason could have gone in two completely different directions for the Jets. It could have gone very badly. David Harris, Shaun Ellis, Brodney Pool, Antonio Cromartie, Braylon Edwards, Brad Smith, and Santonio Holmes were all free agents heading into this offseason. That’s 4 defensive starters and their… (read more)

8(5). Indianapolis Colts

Peyton Manning had a down season by his standards. He posted his lowest quarterback rating since 2002 (91.9), had his lowest YPA since his rookie season and threw more picks than any season since 2002. However, that doesn’t mean that at age 35, Peyton Manning is a declining player. A lot of his… (read more)

7(9). San Diego Chargers

The Chargers struggled in the start of the 2010 season, nothing new to them. They started 2-5, but like they had in recent years, everyone expected them to be able to bounce back. They looked well on their way, winning 4 in a row, before losing to the Raiders and falling to 6-6. They won their next two games, but a loss to the… (read more)

 6(2). Houston Texans

The Houston Texans have never made the playoffs. They have been trendy sleeper picks for the past few years and have never come through. Some people have sworn off of making them sleepers. I am not one of those people. In fact, this is the first year I can really call Houston one of my sleepers. Peyton Manning… (read more)

5(10). Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles stole the offseason. They might not be the best team (though they might be), but there’s no question this is the most hyped team. The added a key addition at almost every position, Dominique Rodgers Cromartie and Nnamdi Asomugha at cornerback, Jason Babin at defensive end, Cullen Jenkins at… (read more)

4(6). New Orleans Saints

In February of 2010, the Saints were on top of the world as Super Bowl Champions. However, like every reigning Super Bowl Champion before them since the 2003 New England Patriots, the Saints failed to win a playoff game, losing in embarrassing fashion to the Seattle Seahawks, a team that somehow qualified… (read more)

3(4). Green Bay Packers

The Green Bay Packers won the Super Bowl, as I predicted last August (just saying), last year despite having many players on IR, including several key players. Among those were Ryan Grant, their lead back, Jermichael Finley, their stud tight end, Morgan Burnett, a talented rookie starter at strong safety, Nick Barnett, a… (read more)

 2(1). Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons finished 13-3 last season and got the NFC #1 seed, but they were exposed late. New Orleans came into town week 16 and won and all of a sudden the mystique behind the Georgia Dome, where Matt Ryan had only lost once in his 3 year career, was gone. 3 weeks later, the Packers came in and… (read more)

1(3). New England Patriots

At this time last year, some were talking about the Patriots as a potential 9-7 or 8-8 team that would miss the playoffs. The Jets were the talk of the division and some were even speculating the Dolphins were better than the Patriots. Their defense was inexperienced and their key offensive players were… (read more)

 

All spreads on Bodog. All money lines on 5dimes.

Last week overall: 12-4

Last week ATS: 6-9-1 (-670/-5 units)

Overall picks: 20-12 (.625)

ATS Picks: 12-18-2 (-1590/-12 units)

Lock picks: 2-0

Upset picks: 3-6 (-130)

2 down weeks in a row. It looks bad to start a season, but it can happen at any time. Gambling is just that. A gamble. If Buffalo -3.5 covers last week, I win $170 instead of lose $670. Buffalo won by 3. It happens. Unlike week 1, I don’t think I completely misread the games. I was 12-4 straight up. Here’s hoping for some better luck week 3.

Cincinnati Bengals 20 San Francisco 10

Pick against spread: Cincinnati -3 (+105) 3 units (-300)

It’s fun fact time. Since 2008, 7 quarterbacks have started week 1, a complete contrast to what was happening before then, when starting rookie quarterbacks week 1 was completely taboo. Those 7 quarterbacks, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton, and Andy Dalton. Ryan, Flacco, Stafford, Sanchez, and Bradford ALL won and covered week 3. Newton and Dalton have a chance to do the same this. It’s not a huge trend, but it makes sense. Rookie starters are settled in by week 3 so it makes sense they’d have their best game then.

Can Cam Newton and Andy Dalton keep this up? I’ll have my answer on Cam Newton later, but as for Andy Dalton, I think he definitely can. San Francisco would have only beaten the lowly Seahawks in San Francisco by 2 week 2 if Ted Ginn didn’t go insane and score 2 special teams touchdowns in just over a minute. Last week, they were outplayed by Dallas (in terms of total yards), but still led 24-14 going into the 4^th quarter. They blew that lead and lost at home 27-24 to the Cowboys as Tony Romo (TONY ROMO?!) led a miraculous fourth quarter drive to tie and overtime drive to win despite playing with a punctured lung he suffered in the 3^rd quarter.

San Francisco is going to be extremely flat off of that loss and now they have to travel 3 time zones and play Cincinnati at a 1 o’clock start, a situation West Coast teams are 24-42 ATS in after a home game. I also think Cincinnati is the better team and right now the line is at -3, which suggests that Cincinnati and San Francisco are equal.

New England Patriots 35 Buffalo Bills 31

Pick against spread: Buffalo +9 (-115) 4 units (+400)

The Buffalo Bills are 2-0 and yet they are 9 point home dogs to the New England Patriots. They have to be feeling disrespected right now. I tried to find a trend to see how 2-0 teams do as 7+ point home dogs. There wasn’t one. The reason why, the Bills are the ONLY 2-0 7+ point home dog as far back as I have data for (2000). Given that they haven’t beaten the Patriots since 2003 and that they’re going to feel disrespected, you have to figure that they’ll be playing their hearts out this week. This is their Super Bowl.

In their next 11 games after their last win against New England, Buffalo was 2-9 ATS. In their last 4, they’re 2-1-1 ATS. They’re getting better and they have delivered a scare to New England in their first matchup of the year in the last 2 years, covering as underdogs both times.

Speaking of the fact that Buffalo is the biggest 2-0 home dog I could find, that makes this a definite trap line. Here’s what I mean by trap line. Last year Seattle was 10 point home dogs in the playoffs to New Orleans. That was only the 2^nd time that season a team was 10+ point home dogs. The other time was Baltimore in Carolina when Carolina was starting Brian St. Pierre, a career backup they had just signed out of retirement. The Seahawks didn’t deserve to be 10 point home dogs. They’re great at home and New Orleans struggles in the elements. However, everyone still bet on the Saints because everyone thought, the Seahawks don’t deserve to be here, the Saints will destroy them. The Seahawks covered and also won and Vegas won a lot of money (as did I because I put 5 units on the Seahawks).

Remember Super Bowl 42. The general perception was that New England couldn’t be beaten and New York didn’t deserve to be there and New York was the largest Super Bowl underdogs in NFL history (12 points on a neutral field). Everyone still bet New England. Vegas won a lot of money when New York covered and won. How does that relate to this game? Well, the general perception going into this game is that New England is awesome and can’t be beaten, while Buffalo is only a fluke 2-0 because of who they’ve played (Kansas City, Oakland). The majority of the money right now is on New England. I’m going with the underdog in this trap line.

I did find a few trends that related to this game. Buffalo is a home dog of 7+ after a straight up home win. Since 2002, teams are 12-4 ATS in that situation. That makes sense. They’re comfortable in their 2^nd straight home game. They’re coming off a win, yet they’re still disrespected by the oddsmakers, who make them 7+ point home dogs. Buffalo is also a divisional home dog of 7+ in their 2^nd straight game at home. They’re comfortable at home and still big home dogs. Plus, divisional games tend to be closer than most since these teams are so familiar with each other. Teams in these situations are 11-6 ATS since 2002 and 2-1 ATS off of a win.

The Patriots have the type of pass defense that allows opponents to keep the game close. They have allowed the 2^nd most passing yards in the league with 762. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a decent quarterback who is a perfect fit for the Chan Gailey offense. He can move the ball on New England enough to keep this one within 9. The only reason I’m not picking Buffalo for 5 is because I bet against New England last week and then when I was watching the game I had a heart attack every time Tom Brady dropped back to pass. However, there are too many situations to ignore in this one.

New Orleans Saints 27 Houston Texans 24

Pick against spread: Houston +4 (-110) 2 units (-220)

The Texans new look defense has lived up to its billing thus far this season. However, they’ve faced Kerry Collins and Chad Henne. I think Drew Brees presents a bit of a tougher challenge. They also have to go into the Superdome, a tough challenge, particularly for a quarterback in Matt Schaub was has never started there before. The noise in the Superdome is impossible to simulate and there’s nothing else quite like it in the league. We saw it last week with Jay Cutler. Quarterbacks struggle on their first visit to the Superdome, particularly quarterbacks like Cutler who are prone to mistakes.

However, there’s something different about this year’s Texans. I bet against them week 1 and week 2 because they were playing in situations they’d normally struggle in. Week 1 they were playing a team that had just lost their starting quarterback. There was no way they give 100% for that game after getting the sigh of relief that was the news of Manning’s injury, right? Well they did. How about last week. Typical trap game. They had games with the Saints and the Steelers in their next 2 weeks. There’s no way they give 100% for the lowly Dolphins right? Wrong. I don’t think you can call this a mistake prone team anymore so I’m not afraid of betting them in New Orleans.

There are two situations that support my decision of Houston. Houston is 10-3 ATS in their 2^nd straight road game under Gary Kubiak. Meanwhile, in the Sean Peyton/Drew Brees era, the Saints are surprisingly a mere 3-8 in their 2^nd straight game as home favorites. I think the Saints still tough out a home win here and the line isn’t huge, but I’m putting a small play on Houston and hoping we get a field goal game here. I think that’s what happens.

Miami Dolphins 19 Cleveland Browns 17 (+120)

Pick against spread: Miami +3 (-130) 3 units (+300)

Miami lost their first 2 games to start 0-2 despite having both at home. They’re screwed now that they have to go to Cleveland right? Well, not necessarily. I don’t know what it is, but the Dolphins SUCK at home. They were 1-7 there last year as opposed to 6-2 on the road and now they’re 0-2 to start this season there. They’re a better road team and this isn’t anything new. In the Tony Sparano era, they’re 17-7 ATS on the road and 7-20 ATS at home.

This makes absolutely no sense and thus it’s perfect for bettors. Vegas adds 3 points to the line depending on where the game is. This line says that Miami and Cleveland are equal, but Cleveland is favored by 3 because they’re at home. However, history says that Miami is BETTER on the road than at home, so much better in fact that maybe they should be 3 point favorites in this situation. Either way, I like betting on Miami on the road and I’m going to be betting against them pretty heavily at home from now on.

I also like betting against Cleveland at a favorite. After their weird winning season in 2007, they’re 4-7 as favorites. Plus, Miami’s offensive coordinator is a former Cleveland assistant. Teams in that situation were 7-3 ATS last season. St. Louis lost in this situation last week, but I think there’s still value in it. It definitely helps in preparation. This line is currently at Miami +3 -130 on Bodog. It’s elsewhere at +1.5 -110. I like getting protection against a field goal win and I’ll pay the extra 20% juice to get that, but I’d bet 3 units on it in either situation.

Tennessee Titans 20 Denver Broncos 16

Pick against spread: Denver +7 (-115) 3 units (+300)

Tennessee was absolutely terrible week 1 losing to Jacksonville 5 days after they had just cut their starting quarterback. And it’s not like Jacksonville’s new signal caller was good or anything. He had a 1.8 QB rating last week against New York with 6 completions and 4 interceptions. However, Tennessee rebounded week 2 beating Baltimore, who had just demolished Pittsburgh by 28 the week before.

However, I’m still not sure Tennessee is very good. Baltimore was probably just really flat last week off of a huge emotional win over the Steelers. I don’t even know why I picked Baltimore (only for 1 unit). I knew Baltimore could be flat off of their win over Pittsburgh. I tweeted last year after the Jets beat the Patriots in the playoffs that teams who win “their Super Bowl” are almost always flat the next week. Hell, I even picked against Houston last week for the same reason I should have picked against Baltimore. Houston had just beaten the shit out of Indy.

All that being said, I don’t think Tennessee is very good at all. Denver sucks too, especially on the road, but I think Tennessee is a 6 win team at the end of the season. Teams who end up winning 6 games are 22-61 ATS since 2002 when favored by 6 or more. This is one of the most powerful trends, when used right. However, especially early in the season, it’s very tough to know which teams are going to go 6-10 or worse. However, these picks are predictions and I predict Tennessee is a 5 or 6 win team. I’m taking Denver for 3 units. This line seems ridiculously high to me anyway. Tennessee isn’t 4 points better than Denver.

Philadelphia Eagles 20 New York Giants 13

Pick against spread: NY Giants +9 (-120) 1 unit (+100)

New York hasn’t had a lot of success against Philadelphia in recent years, but I still think this line is much too high. I think the Eagles are still pretty overrated. Michael Vick is a turnover prone quarterback who struggles against the blitz and as banged up as the Giants are, they can still get after the quarterback. They have 6 sacks in 2 games and one of those games was without Justin Tuck. Osi Umenyiora is still out, but Jason Pierre Paul and Dave Tollefson have filled in nicely.

Besides, divisional underdogs on the road of 7+ are 125-94 ATS since 2002. That’s not a huge trend, but divisional matchups do tend to be closer than most. Besides, Tom Coughlin is 7-4 ATS as 7+ underdogs in his time in New York.

The Eagles have a great defense and their excellent cornerbacks should be able to easily stop the Giants’ passing attack given their lack of depth at receiver thanks to injuries. However, I don’t trust their offense against a New York team that can get pressure and creativity blitz. Also, the trends say New York is the right side. I expect this to be a low scoring game in which New York covers, but at the same time, New York is so banged up right now, I don’t feel comfortable putting more than a unit on this.

Detroit Lions 27 Minnesota Vikings 19

Pick against spread: Detroit -4 (-105) 2 units (-210)

Detroit is favored on the road by 3+, a situation they are a whopping 0-0 in since 1999. That’s right. This is the first time they’ve been favored by 3+ in almost 12 years (week 15 1999 was the last time). Times are changing in the NFL. Detroit is actually good. Like really, really good.

Discounting a garbage time touchdown against Tampa Bay, their defense has allowed 9 points (3 field goals) this year. They have so many offensive weapons (Jahvid Best, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew, Nate Burleson, Titus Young), and a great young signal caller in Matt Stafford. This team is the real deal. I have no problem betting them as road favorites against Minnesota, who has to be flat after blowing a big lead (17-0) against Tampa Bay last week.

Carolina Panthers 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Spread: Carolina -4 (-105) 2 units (+200)

I mentioned how good rookie quarterbacks have been week 3 in my Cincinnati/San Francisco pick. Do I think Cam Newton can make it a perfect 7 for 7 with rookie quarterbacks week 3 (provided they started week 1)? I do. Cam Newton is a very good quarterback for the stage in his development he’s in. Carolina hasn’t won yet, but they started the season on the road in Arizona and then faced the defending champs in Carolina last week. A home game against Jacksonville is completely different.

Jacksonville is a mess right now. They could be switching quarterbacks for the 2^nd time in 3 weeks. If they don’t switch quarterbacks, they’re starting a quarterback who is coming off of a game in which he had 6 completions and 4 interceptions. They’re extremely thin at wide receiver and could be thinner if Marcedes Lewis and Jason Hill can’t go again. Their 32^nd ranked secondary from a year ago has had trouble with the likes of Matt Hasselbeck and Mark Sanchez and could again be missing their top defensive back, Derek Cox. I don’t buy that Carolina is only 1 point better than Jacksonville, which is what this line is telling us.

However, there are some trends in play here, but they basically cancel each other out. In the Jack Del Rio era, Jacksonville is 6-2 as a road dog off of a road loss, but they’re also 10-21 against non-divisional opponents in the last 3 plus years. I’m sticking with Carolina for 2.

San Diego Chargers 27 Kansas City Chiefs 17

Pick against spread: Kansas City +15 (-110) 4 units (+400)

The Chiefs suck. They have been outscored 150-30 in their last 4 games that counted. In those 4 games, Matt Cassel is 57-109 for 437 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. They’ve already lost Eric Berry, Tony Moeaki, and Jamaal Charles to injury. However, I really like them this week for many reasons. For one, the Chargers always shoot themselves in the foot in the first half of the season. They almost lost to Minnesota in a game that Donovan McNabb threw for 37 yards and then they lost by 14 to the Patriots in a game that was pretty even yards wise. They might be 12 points better than Kansas City (add 3 for home field), but there’s a very slim chance they play like it.

Also, the Chiefs did make the playoffs last year. Since 2003, teams that have started 0-2 that made the playoffs the year before are 13-7 ATS. I know you’re thinking, yeah but the Chiefs suck. That may be true, but so did the Cowboys and Vikings last year in this same situation and they covered.

Besides, it may be good that they suck. They’re undervalued. For this reason, teams that lose straight up by 28+ are 55-30 ATS since 2002. They have something to prove here after playing terrible for 2 straight weeks. They’re playing to protect their dignity as a team that made the playoffs just last year. They’re also playing to avenge their 31 point loss to San Diego last year. Teams trying to avenge a 14+ point loss to a divisional opponent are 72-47 ATS since 2002.

Meanwhile, San Diego is coming off a crushing loss to the Patriots. There’s no way they play 100% against the lowly Chiefs this week, especially since San Diego typically struggles in the first few weeks of the season. I think we’re getting excellent value with Kansas City -15. I’d put 5 units if I wasn’t afraid the Chiefs come out and simply don’t have the talent to cover and San Diego wins 28-3 or something playing at 75-80% motivation. However, I’m pretty confident Kansas City is the right side here.

New York Jets 23 Oakland Raiders 20

Pick against spread: Oakland +3.5 (-115) 1 unit (+100)

This was the matchup I had the toughest time with. New York has an awesome defense. Luke McCown sucks, but you don’t hold a quarterback to a 1.8 QB rating if you don’t have an awesome defense. They also are a great run defense and should be able to contain Darren McFadden. This offense goes as McFadden goes as Jason Campbell isn’t much more than a game manager.

However, New York is going to be feeling really good about themselves coming into this game after how well they played last week. They also have the Ravens and the Patriots in consecutive weeks coming up. I doubt they give 100% for the lowly Raiders after traveling 3 time zones. The Raiders aren’t a completely terrible team and the Jets have had some disappointing games in the Rex Ryan era. Besides, New York plays a lot of field goal games. I’m going with Oakland for 1.

Seattle Seahawks 17 Arizona Cardinals 13 Upset Pick (+165)

Pick against spread: Seattle +3.5 (-115) 3 units (+300)

Seattle has looked dreadful in their first 2 games of the season, losing in San Francisco and then getting crushed in Pittsburgh in a game where they didn’t call their first play in Pittsburgh territory until midway in the 4^th quarter. However, they head home now. This team at home is completely different.

Qwest field is one of the biggest home field advantages in the league. They won a playoff game there last year they had no business winning. They won 5 games there last year despite being so bad on the road that they lost by multiple touchdowns 6 times on the road. Since 2007, they’re 22-12 ATS at home and 10-26 ATS on the road.

Besides, a trend I’ve already mentioned, Seattle is a playoff team from last year that started 0-2. Those teams are 13-7 ATS since 2003. They’re going to want to protect their dignity this week, especially at home. Besides, this is an NFC West matchup. The NFC West sucks. No NFC West team has any right to be road favorites. NFC West teams were 4-8 straight up last year in road divisional matchups, 4-9 if you include Seattle’s trip to San Francisco week 1 this year. If you include 2009, NFC West teams are 9-16 straight up in divisional matchups. The division was also a combined 6-26 straight up on the road last year and they’re already off to a 0-4 start this year on the road.

I don’t care how bad Seattle is. No NFC West team deserves to be favored on the road. Besides, are we even sure Arizona is that good. They almost lost week 1 to Carolina at home and then they lost to Washington last week. They’re not terrible, but I’m not so sure they’re good either. This line says they’re 6.5 points better than Seattle and that’s not including the extra 1-2 points Seattle should get for playing at home. Seattle sucks, but I’m not buying they’re 7 or 8 points worse than Arizona. I’m taking Seattle here and not just to cover, but to win outright. Seattle wins games they don’t deserve to win at home all the time. I think this is another one of those situations.

Baltimore Ravens 27 St. Louis Rams 13 Lock/Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Baltimore -4 (-110) 3 units (+300)

Jon Gruden made what I thought was an interesting point during the Monday Night Game. He said, I would not want to play a Tom Coughlin team after a bad loss. He said this as New York was up 12 after getting destroyed in Washington as road favorites the week before. This made sense, so I looked up if there were any trends related to it. Here’s what I found. Off of a loss as a favorite, the Giants are 11-9 straight up and 11-9 ATS in the Tom Coughlin era. Looks like Jon Gruden was wrong, at least with that.

He then said that St. Louis has to play Baltimore in their next game and he would not want to face a John Harbaugh team after a bad loss. Baltimore is coming off of a loss as a road favorite to Tennessee. Lo and behold, Gruden was right. In the John Harbaugh era, Baltimore is 4-1 SU and ATS off of a loss as favorites. They’re going to be a tough team this week. John Harbaugh is not going to be happy after the way they performed last week. They’re going to be 100% ready for St. Louis this week.

St. Louis, meanwhile, could be really flat. They’re coming off of a loss on Monday Night Football of 10+. Teams in this situation are 33-57 ATS since 2002. They’re playing terrible football right now, making mistakes left and right. They have tons of injuries and Sam Bradford is cracking under the pressure of having to do it all by himself in just his 2^nd year in the league. I like Baltimore to bounce back and win in their 2^nd straight game as road favorites.

 

Green Bay Packers 27 Chicago Bears 13

Pick against spread: Green Bay -4 (-105) 2 units (+200)

Remember when Chicago looked like the real deal week 1? Good times. The Bears got destroyed 30-13 in New Orleans last week despite jumping out to an early 7 point lead. It was 16-10 at the half and I stopped paying much attention to the game in the 2^nd half, but literally every time I looked up, Cutler was either on the ground or running for his life. He was sacked 6 times and pressured on almost every play and that was a New Orleans team that was playing without its top pass rusher Will Smith. He was seen on the sideline noticeably frustrated with his supporting cast. That can’t be good for team morale.

On top of that, rookie right tackle Gabe Carimi is going to miss at least a week with an injury. Once Carimi left last week, things went from bad to worse on that line. With Clay Matthews and company coming to Chicago this week, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if we saw a repeat of the Chicago/New York game last year where Cutler was sacked 10 times. Green Bay’s defense hasn’t looked great so far this season, but they played Drew Brees week 1 in a shootout and then Carolina last week in a game they weren’t that focused for. They’ll be focused for this divisional clash against the team that actually won the division last year.

I’m at the point again where I can’t bet heavily on Chicago anymore. The Packers are road favorites here which is something to worry about, but by all indications, they deserve to be. Aaron Rodgers has been on fire since midway through last season and doesn’t appear to be letting up. I can’t see this game even being close. The Packers outplayed the Bears in all three meetings last year, only losing in Chicago week 3 by 3 last year in a game they had 18 penalties. Unless that happens again, we should be fine betting on Green Bay.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 Atlanta Falcons 24

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay -1 (-105) 2 units (+200)

After looking terrible against Chicago in the opener, the Falcons rebounded against Philadelphia last week. However, I’m not so sure everything is okay for the Falcons again. It’s clear they aren’t the team they were a year ago. They needed a Vick injury to beat Philadelphia and they looked horrible against Chicago. Their offensive line isn’t as good with the loss of Harvey Dahl and left tackle Sam Baker seems to have gotten worse in the offseason. Trent Cole beat him on almost every play last week.

Besides, Atlanta is a bad team on the road. They’re a mere 13-13 straight up on the road in the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith era. This is as opposed to 21-5 at home in that same period, since 2008. I don’t know if they can go into Tampa Bay and win, which they’ll have to do to cover this week. They also could be flat after an emotional win last week. They really wanted to beat Philadelphia after all the “dream team” talk and after Philadelphia beat them last year. It’s going to be hard for them to maintain that intensity against Tampa Bay. That’s why I like Tampa Bay to win and thus cover against an even spread.

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Indianapolis Colts 17

Pick against spread: Indianapolis +11 (-115) 4 units (+400)

Is it possible to win MVP if you don’t even play a snap? If so, Peyton Manning deserves to win MVP. Don’t worry Colts fans. Your team is going to be this bad all season. They still have talent, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis, Gary Brackett, etc. Kerry Collins is playing terrible right now, but he’s historically a slow starter and he was retired about a month ago. He’s going to take a little bit to warm up. Once he does, the Colts should win 5 or 6 games. I don’t buy the notion that this team is in the Andrew Luck race. Actually, that might be bad news for Colts’ fans.

Pittsburgh, meanwhile, recovered last week from an embarrassing 35-7 loss in Baltimore to the rival Ravens week 1, taking out all their aggression against the lowly Seahawks, who didn’t call a play in Pittsburgh territory until midway through the 4^th quarter. However, now they go back on the road.

I’ve mentioned it twice before and I’ll mention it again. Teams that made the playoffs the year before are 13-7 ATS week 3 if they’ve started 0-2. Besides, Indianapolis is only the 4^th team in the last 2 seasons to be 10 point home dogs. Carolina was 12 point home dogs against Baltimore with Brian St. Pierre at quarterback. Seattle was 10 point home dogs against New Orleans in the playoffs. Carolina was 11 point home dogs against Green Bay last week.

The Seattle playoff game was a trap line. Carolina deserved to be 12 point home dogs with St. Pierre, but not 11 point home dogs with Newton last week. Do the Colts deserve to be 11 point home dogs here? I’m not so sure. I think this line is playing off of the public’s belief that the Colts are 2-14 or 3-13 bad. The public is falling into it as most of the money is on Pittsburgh so far.

More evidence it could be a trap line, Pittsburgh is not good as big road favorites, a mere 2-5 ATS in the Mike Tomlin era as 7+ point favorites. This makes sense. Pittsburgh has never had a high scoring offense or anything. They play and win a lot of close games. I think they’ll play and win a close game here, with Indianapolis playing for their pride at home on Sunday Night Football. Given that, I think Indianapolis covers this spread.

Washington Redskins 27 Dallas Cowboys 21 Upset Pick (+145)

Pick against spread: Washington +3.5 (-110) 2 units

Romo is expected to play here and the line is set at Dallas -3.5 at home. However, Romo won’t be 100%. He’s got bad ribs and if he takes a shot, it could knock him out and bring Jon Kitna in. On top of that, Romo will also be missing his trusty wide out Miles Austin and Dez Bryant and Felix Jones, though expected to play, won’t be 100% either with injuries. Their also have injuries in an already thin secondary.

They choked in New York week 1 and lost and needed to mount a huge comeback to win in San Francisco against the lowly Niners last week, despite dominating the yardage totals. This team doesn’t deserve to be more than 3 point favorites against a Washington team that is playing well right now.

Besides, home favorites after a 1-3 point road win are 48-71 ATS since 2002. Teams tend not to give as much effort the week after a close road win and tend not to cover as favorites. You might think it’d be different with a divisional opponent, but it’s not. Teams in this situation are 14-25 ATS, possibly because divisional opponents tend to be tougher than most. I like the Redskins here straight up and ATS.

This line opened at -4 earlier today. It’s moved to -3.5 (-110) and -3 (-125) now, which suggests that Vegas wants more people to bet on Dallas. I’m not falling for it. As long as I have protection from this being a field goal win by Dallas, I’m taking Washington so I think them -3.5 (-110). I’m also taking them to win straight up. 

LV Hilton Super Contest Picks (for anyone playing): Buffalo +8, Kansas City +14, Indianapolis +10.5, Seattle +3.5,  Cincinnati -2.5 (4-6 on the season)

 

 

 

Average total drafted in last 5 years: 17.8

1. Mark Barron (Alabama) Top 20

2. Harrison Smith (Notre Dame) 1-2

3. Brandon Taylor (LSU) 2-3

4. Antonio Allen (South Carolina) 3

5. George Iloka (Boise State) 3-4

6. Markelle Martin (Oklahoma State) 3-4

7. Christian Thompson (South Carolina State) 4-5

8. Trent Robinson (Michigan State) 5-6

9. Aaron Henry (Wisconsin) 5-6

10. Janzen Jackson (McNeese State) 5-6

11. Phillip Thomas (Syracuse) 5-6

12. Tavon Wilson (Illinois) 5-6

13. Brandon Hardin (Oregon State) 6-7

14. Kelcie McCray (Arkansas State) 6-7

15. Duke Ihenacho (San Jose State) 6-7

16. Eddie Pleasant (Oregon) 6-7

17. DJ Campbell (California) 7-U

18. Tramian Thomas (Arkansas) 7-U

19. Charles Mitchell (Mississippi State) 7-U

20. Sean Richardson (Vanderbilt) 7-U

21. Winston Guy (Kentucky) 7-U

22. Jordan Bernstine (Iowa) 7-U

 

 

Cornerback/Safety

Texas

6-0 204

Draft board overall prospect rank: #51

Draft board overall cornerback rank: #8

Overall rating: 77 (2^nd round)

40 time: 4.51

3/23/11: Scouts were very high on Aaron Williams going into the season, an athletic junior cornerback coming off of a strong sophomore season. I was higher on his teammate Curtis Brown and slotted Brown in the first round earlier this season. Unfortunately, it seems like we were both wrong. Brown and Williams are both likely 2^nd round picks after not living up to their potential last year.

I actually have Aaron Williams rated lower than Brown, though some disagree. Williams does have the ability to play safety in addition to cornerback, but I see Williams as a huge tweener. He’s have to bulk up about 10 pounds to play safety and he’s way too stiff to play cornerback effectively in the NFL right now. He’s very raw and needs a lot of work in mirroring and anticipating receivers’ routes. He’s slow in his backpedal and doesn’t change directions fluidly. He’s got good timed speed and good recovery speed, but he relies too much on his natural gifts to be an effective cornerback in the NFL right away.

He’s got good size and good leaps and plays the run well for a cornerback, but he doesn’t make enough plays on the ball. He’s probably best as a zone cornerback as he struggles in man to man. Teams will look at him as a safety. Several draftniks have slapped the Antrel Rolle comparison on him and I think that’s fair. As a much hyped cornerback out of Miami, Rolle was drafted 8^th overall by the Cardinals in 2005, but struggles at the position and 3 years later was moved to safety. He’s an above average safety now, but he was hardly worth the 8^th overall pick. Williams doesn’t have that same hype around him and will likely be taken in the 2^nd round, which is fitting for him, but his career could be very similar to Rolle’s.