2nd round 3rd round 

33. St. Louis Rams- WR Stephen Hill (Georgia Tech)

Stephen Hill’s upside is off the charts, but no one wanted to take the risk in the 1^st round. He won’t last long in the 2^nd round. The Rams are building for the future with 2 first round picks in 2013 and 2014. They desperately need wide receiver help for Sam Bradford and they can afford to wait on Hill. If the Rams don’t take Hill here, I think someone will. The Rams have reportedly gotten several offers for the pick from teams interested in Hill (including Cleveland) so the Rams could trade down again.

34. Indianapolis Colts- TE Coby Fleener (Stanford)

This pick makes too much sense. Andrew Luck will be thrilled if they give him his former college teammate to throw to. Brody Eldridge is tops on their tight end depth chart. He has 26 catches in college and the NFL combined. Besides, of the last 19 teams to take a quarterback in the first round, 15 of them took an offensive player with their next pick.

35. Baltimore Ravens- G Cordy Glenn (Georgia)

A lot of people mocked Peter Konz to the Ravens at 29, but Peter King doesn’t see him as a fit. Maybe they don’t see him as a good fit at guard. Cordy Glenn is a more natural fit.

36. Denver Broncos- DT Jerel Worthy (Michigan State)

I had Jerel Worthy to the Broncos in the first round in my final mock so I’ll keep him to them here now that they’ve traded down twice.

37. Cleveland Browns- OT Jonathan Martin (Stanford)

I mentioned Jonathan Martin as an option at 22 in the first to the Browns. They’ll certainly consider him here at 37. They’ve brought him in for a personal workout and they need a new right tackle after cutting Tony Pashos this offseason. Besides, of the last 19 teams to take a quarterback in the first round, 15 of them took an offensive player with their next pick.

38. Jacksonville Jaguars- DE Courtney Upshaw (Alabama)

A lot of people had Melvin Ingram mocked to the Jaguars in the first round and, if they had stayed at 7, he might have been the pick. Courtney Upshaw is a similar player, albeit generally viewed as an inferior prospect.

39. St. Louis Rams- RB Lamar Miller (Miami)

The Rams had interest in Trent Richardson early and still could move Steven Jackson this weekend. The soon to be 29 year old is on his last legs and wants a new contract. Building for the future, they can’t afford to give that to him. Miller is much younger and cheaper and someone they brought in for a private workout.

40. Carolina Panthers- WR Rueben Randle (LSU)

Steve Smith may have just gotten a new deal, but he’s not getting any younger at 33 years of his age this offseason. They don’t have a lot of depth at the position behind him and could bring in Randle to develop as a starter long term.

41. Buffalo Bills- OT Mike Adams (Ohio State)

The Bills passed on a first round tackle because they didn’t see any tackle other than Matt Kalil worth the 10^th overall pick. The rest of the league agreed as only 2 tackles went in the first round. That means the Bills should be able to get one of the other 3 highly rated tackles they’ve worked out, Jonathan Martin, Cordy Glenn, and Mike Adams, in the 2^nd round. Adams is the only one left.

42. Miami Dolphins- OT Bobby Massie (Mississippi)

As I keep repeating, of the last 19 teams to take a quarterback in the first round, 15 of them took an offensive player with their next pick. Bobby Massie would certainly count for the Dolphins. Right tackle Marc Colombo has retired after a season in which he allowed 9 sacks. Massie has worked out privately with the Dolphins.

43. Seattle Seahawks- MLB Zach Brown (North Carolina)

I have no idea. After the Seahawks picked Bruce Irvin in the 1^st round, I tweeted “First James Carpenter, now Bruce Irvin. note to self: when mocking players to the Seahawks, draw names out of a hat.” Brown isn’t quite that, but they need a middle linebacker and Pete Carroll seems to enjoy coaching up players. Brown has 1^st round talent, but 7^th round attitude.

44. Kansas City Chiefs- C Peter Konz (Wisconsin)

I had David DeCastro at 11 for the Chiefs. They didn’t take him, but I think they still want to fix the interior of their offensive line. Konz is too good to pass on here. They drafted Rodney Hudson in the 2^nd round last year to play center, but either Hudson or Konz could play guard.

45. St. Louis Rams- G Amini Silatolu (Midwestern State)

The Rams seem to be satisfied with Rodger Saffold and Jason Smith at tackle. Both played really badly last season, but they’re young and they both played through injury. Silatolu fills a huge need at guard, however, as Jacob Bell is gone as a free agent after a horrible year last season.

46. Philadelphia Eagles- CB Janoris Jenkins (North Alabama)

Jenkins would be a 3^rd cornerback to replace Asante Samuel. He’d be a better fit on the slot than Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and, if he pans out, he could form a formidable cornerback duo with Nnamdi Asomugha on the outside if they decide to let Rodgers-Cromartie walk in a contract year next season.

47. New York Jets- WR Alshon Jeffery (South Carolina)

The Jets needed wide receiver help before they lost Plaxico Burress this offseason. Alshon Jeffery can be a younger version of Burress for them as a possession receiver compliment to Santonio Holmes. They worked him out privately.

48. New England Patriots- DT Kendall Reyes (Connecticut)

The Patriots probably won’t stay put with both of their 2 2^nd round picks as they have no picks after the 2^nd round and only 5 picks next year. If they stay here, they’d be thrilled if Kendall Reyes fell to them. They need defensive tackle help and some mocked him to them in the first round.

49. San Diego Chargers- G Kelechi Osemele (Iowa State)

The Chargers seem satisfied with their starting 5 on the offensive line, but that unit is not without questions. Jared Gaither can’t stay healthy and Jerome Clary and Tyronne Green really struggled last season. Osemele is a versatile 6^th offensive lineman for them who will probably have to step into the starting lineup at some point next season.

50. Chicago Bears- OLB Lavonte David (Nebraska)

The Bears continue to add youth to their front 7. They have all kinds of injuries and age in their linebacking corps. David is an ideal fit for their cover 2 scheme.

51. Philadelphia Eagles- QB Kirk Cousins (Michigan State)

The Eagles are looking at a bunch of young quarterbacks. They don’t have a good backup for Michael Vick, who always gets hurt at least once per year. Vick is also 32 this offseason and might not age well considering his history of injuries and reliance on his legs, normally the first thing to go on an athlete. Cousins can be a young backup and maybe eventual replacement.

52. Tennessee Titans- DT Devon Still (Penn State)

Of the 32 players they’ve worked out privately, they’re almost all wide receivers, cornerbacks, defensive ends, defensive tackles, and linebackers and almost all highly rated players. They’ve only worked out 2 offensive linemen. It’s possible Mike Munchak, a former offensive lineman and offensive line coach, will think he can coach up mid to late rounders at the positions. Devon Still is someone they’ve worked out and he’d definitely count as best available here.

53. Cincinnati Bengals- S Trumaine Johnson (Montana)

After taking a cornerback and a guard in the first round, safety is now the Bengals’ biggest need. Unfortunately, this is a very thin safety class. They will have to address the position very soon, probably in the 2^nd round, and they may have to do it by converting a big cornerback like Trumaine Johnson.

54. Atlanta Falcons- DE Andre Branch (Clemson)

John Abraham is 34 in May and he had 9.5 of their 33 sacks. Ray Edwards didn’t do anything in the first year of his deal. Defensive end is a still a big need of theirs and Andre Branch is someone they’ve brought in for a workout. He’s also a good value at this point.

55. Detroit Lions- DE Vinny Curry (Marshall)

Defensive end might not be their biggest need, but defensive tackle wasn’t their biggest need in 2011 when they took Nick Fairley. Same thing with running back and wide receiver in the 2^nd round in 2011 when they took Mikel Leshoure and Titus Young. They draft for best available and Curry definitely counts. Besides, this could become a need if they cut Kyle Vanden Bosch, who turns 34 in November, or if they can’t come to a long term deal with Cliff Avril. At the very least, Curry can be a successor for Vanden Bosch.

56. Pittsburgh Steelers- MLB Mychal Kendricks (California)

The Steelers didn’t take Dont’a Hightower in the first round because David DeCastro was an unbelievable value. However, there’s a reason he was so frequently mocked there. After cutting James Farrior, they have a real need at middle linebacker. Kendricks won’t have to play right away behind Larry Foote, but Foote will be a 33 year old free agent next offseason.

57. Denver Broncos- CB Josh Robinson (UCF)

The Broncos have a need at cornerback both in the short term and long term. They need another cornerback to go with Champ Bailey and Tracy Porter next year, after cutting Andre Goodman this offseason. Long term, Porter is only on a one year deal and Bailey will be 35 next offseason.

58. Houston Texans- WR Brian Quick (Appalachian State)

The Texans didn’t take a wide receiver in the first round even though they were commonly expected to. They’ll likely address the position on day 2 as Andre Johnson is getting up there in age and Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones just aren’t that good.

59. Green Bay Packers- 3-4 DE Derek Wolfe (Cincinnati)

Even after adding one pass rusher in the first round, the Packers still could use another pass rusher. Jarius Wynn and Ryan Pickett are pretty mediocre players and Ryan Pickett and Mike Neal can’t stay healthy. Neal was also suspended 4 games and could be cut. There’s a reason they only had 29 sacks last year. They’ll love Derek Wolfe’s motor.

60. Baltimore Ravens- MLB Bobby Wagner (Utah State)

Ray Lewis turns 37 in May. He’ll be back next season and even if his play never actually declines, someday he’ll decide the next stop for him is Canton. Bobby Wagner is someone they’ve brought in for a personal visit.

61. San Francisco 49ers- G Brandon Brooks (Miami-OH)

Many expected the 49ers to take a guard in the first round, but that didn’t happen. They’ll likely be targeting guards in the 2^nd round.

62. New England Patriots- CB Brandon Boykin (Georgia)

Again, they’ll try to trade down at least once in the 2^nd round as they don’t have any picks after this. However, I’m not mocking trades and I doubt the Patriots will come away from this draft without taking some kind of defensive back at some point.

63. New York Giants- TE Dwayne Allen (Clemson)

The Giants passed on Coby Fleener in the 1^st round because they like tight ends who are good blockers. Dwayne Allen is a better blocker, which explains why they’ve met privately with him. He wasn’t asked to block a lot at Clemson, but when he did, he showed the ability to do so. He’s got the frame and strength to develop into a better blocker. Of the top tight ends, Allen is the best blocker so he makes a lot of sense for them.

Go on to 3rd round 

I absolutely love this move. 4 years, 26 million dollars, for a guy who has 37 sacks in his last 3 seasons in a 4-3, which the Jaguars run. Forget his 3.5 sacks last year. Those were in a 3-4 which is a completely different scheme. Forget his ACL tear because he is reportedly ready to go for camp in July. Kampman is a cheap addition to a miserable pass rush. Julius Peppers cost 65 million dollars more over just 2 more years and Peppers is not that much better than Kampman when Kampman is right. A very smart, financially cautious move for a financially cautious franchise:

Grade: A

Alex Smith gets the same deal essentially as Matt Flynn (3 years 26 million with 10 million guaranteed for Flynn and 3 years 24 million with 10 million guaranteed for Smith). Flynn has made 2 career starts. Alex Smith was 2 special teams gaffes away from the Super Bowl. When you look at some of the deals that quarterbacks have gotten in recent years (Kevin Kolb: 6 years 65 million with 12 million guaranteed, Ryan Fitzpatrick: 7 years 62 million with 24 million guaranteed, Matt Cassel: 6 years 63 million with 28 million guaranteed), Smith was an absolute bargain.

Smith’s haters may say that he didn’t have a lot to do with where his team ended up last season, but given where they are, they couldn’t go forward without Smith in 2012. Smith threw 5 interceptions last season. He might not have necessarily made them go, but he didn’t hold them back either. He also showed the ability to take over the game at times, the New Orleans game comes to mind. I’m very excited to see what he can do with new receivers and a full offseason with Jim Harbaugh. There are no guarantees that Colin Kaepernick or Josh Johnson would have been anywhere near as efficient as Smith was last season.

In San Francisco’s system, Smith is a legitimate top 15 quarterback that you can win a Super Bowl with as long as everything is right around him (and in San Francisco it almost is). The 49ers are so close. Sometime in the 3 years of this contract, they could win a Super Bowl. 24 million will seem like an absolute bargain in that case and even if they don’t quite get it, it still will. If he struggles, they don’t owe him a lot of guaranteed money and they have Colin Kaepernick waiting in the wings. Remember, Kaepernick was not drafted in the 1^st round. He wasn’t drafted to be the starter. He was drafted as an insurance policy for Smith and they haven’t needed him yet. One last note: Smith made 5 million season when he was a former bust stopgap. This offseason he’s only getting 3 million more after a borderline Pro Bowl season. Bargain.

Update: This deal is bigger than originally reported, 3 years 33 million with 16.5 million guaranteed, though it’s worth noting that a good amount of that 33 million is incentive based (8 million per year base salary). I’m still giving this an A. They did overpay a little in terms of guaranteed money, but 8 million per year isn’t unreasonable for a top 15 quarterback like Smith. As well as the 49ers did last season, they had to keep their quarterback, even if it meant overpaying him. There’s no guarantee Kaepernick or Johnson could do what Smith did.

Update II: Turns out it was only 9 million guaranteed. Even better. If he regresses, they can cut him loose after a season.  Deal still worth a max of 33 million with a 24 million base.

Grade: A

Debate the Atlanta Falcons offseason possibilities in The Football Fan Forum

2010 Preview:

In many ways, the Falcons and Panthers are similar teams. I touched on some of the ways in the Panthers’ write up, but both have good young quarterbacks, good running games, good offensive lines, one very talented receiver and decent depth behind him, solid defenses that lack elite pass rushes. I have the Panthers ranked higher though because their running game is that much more potent with two talented running backs, instead of one, to keep each other fresh. The Panthers’ line is also a bit better, as is their secondary.

The Falcons do have the edge in pass rush, especially if John Abraham bounces back this year, and they have Tony Gonzalez at tight end, as well as more experience at quarterback, but overall I think the Panthers are a better team, only slightly. They also have an easier schedule. So overall, I’ll say similar makeups between the two teams, but the Panthers are more talented and have an easier schedule, and I’ll give them the edge, barely.

Projection: 9-7 3rd in NFC South

Power Ranking: 13

Last season: 9-7

Draft:

#19 OLB Sean Weatherspoon (Missouri)

With the top 3 defensive ends off the board, it makes a ton of sense for the Falcons to take Weatherspoon. He fills a need and is one of, if not the best available. He’ll make this defense better and be a fan favorite from day 1.

Grade: A

#83 DT Corey Peters (Kentucky)

Peters fits the scheme, but doesn’t really fill much of a need. He’ll probably be their #4 defensive tackle next year and, unless something happens to one of the guys ahead of him on the depth chart, he’ll stay that way for a long time. Peters also didn’t play in a 4-3 in college and is probably being drafted 2 rounds too early here. How are the Falcons going to get to the quarterback? Passing on Everson Griffen for Sean Weatherspoon is one thing, but passing on Griffen again for Peters doesn’t make any sense.

Grade: D

#98 G Mike Johnson (Alabama)

He does fill a need, but passing on Everson Griffen again is stupid. I understand Mike Smith doesn’t like guys who don’t have grade A attitudes, but there’s a point where you almost have to take a guy who has first round talent at a position of huge need and value. This point is that point. Actually, 83 was that point. Still, Johnson is probably a future starter in this scheme.

Grade: B-

#117 C Joe Hawley (UNLV)

A bit of a need, but I had never heard of Hawley before draft day and I had looked at profiles of at least 400 draft NFL prospects and could tell you off the top of my head what I thought of each one of them. He’s a big reach here over Matt Tennant and Eric Olsen and even if he wasn’t, though center is a need, how many interior linemen (either offensive or defensive) do the Falcons plan to draft before they take an end? Greg Hardy? Austin Lane? CJ Wilson? Anybody?

Grade: D

#135 CB Domonique Franks (Oklahoma)

They needed a defensive end, but Franks is a 3^rd round prospect in the 5^th round. He is very raw and the Falcons have some decent #2 and #3 corners, but Franks has more upside than any other corner on this roster aside from Dunta Robinson and there’s nothing wrong with going BPA even when you need a defensive end if the BPA should have been drafted 2 rounds ago.

Grade: A

#165 WR Kerry Meier (Kansas)

Meier is a former quarterback at wide receiver who really lacks breakaway speed or experience in a Pro Style offense, so I’m not too optimistic about his upside, but it is the 6^th round and they do need wide receivers.

Grade: C+

#171 S Shann Schillinger (Montana)

Schillinger was not on my radar to get drafted and the Falcons didn’t really need a safety, but he can push William Moore and play some special teams. But still, as they need a defensive end, I can’t love the positional value.

Grade: D

Overall:

Falcons fans can’t be happy with this draft because it means that the Falcons believe enough in Jamaal Anderson’s ability to stop being a bust or Lawrence Sidbury’s ability to pan out as something more than a nickel rusher to address the defensive end position. Going against Drew Brees and Jimmy Clausen a total of 4 times next year and for presumably the next 5 years, it’s not good if you can’t get to the quarterback. The Falcons had 7 picks and only got two guys that in my mind will be future starters and they were an outside linebacker and a guard. They started out strong, but made a bunch of weird picks and didn’t address their #1 need, a defensive end.

Grade: C-

Key undrafted free agents

K Garrett Lindholm (Tarleton State)

TE Colin Peek (Alabama)

WR Ryan Wolfe (UNLV)

Positions of need:

Cornerback:

The Falcons have a ton of #2 and #3 cornerbacks, but no true shutdown cornerback. They were using Brian Williams for a while, but he got hurt and let’s just say they didn’t miss him. They’ll be targeting a cornerback early this year, some are even saying that the Falcons taking a cornerback in the first is one of the most likely things in the first round. They reportedly like Kyle Wilson a lot and he should be their when they pick at 19, so barring any changes in their opinion of him between now and April, or barring a top defensive end falling to 19, Wilson looks like a likely pick there.

Signed Dunta Robinson, Drafted Domonique Franks (#135) 

Defensive End:

It’s safe to say, after 3 years and 2.5 sacks, than Jamaal Anderson, the former 8^th overall pick, is a bust. They need to move on at the left end positions. The Falcons only had 28 sacks last year, with their team leader with 6, Jonathan Babineaux, being a defensive tackle. John Abraham had a great year in 2008, but only had 5.5 last season and is also on the wrong side of 30. Lawrence Sidbury has promise as a 2009 mid round selection, but he’s not much other than a nickel rusher. However, unless they fall in love with a defensive end’s upside at 19, they will wait until the 3^rd to address this need. After Derrick Morgan, all of the elite defensive ends this year are nothing but upside and Morgan won’t be there at 19. Brandon Graham could be the pick if they view him as a fit for a 4-3 which is uncertain, but most likely I think they go cornerback in the first, and then take a guy like Austin Lane or Brandon Lang in the 3^rd. CJ Wilson and Alex Carrington would also be possibilities if they are looking for someone stronger against the run.Ho

Outside Linebacker:

A return to Mike Smith’s system did not revive Mike Peterson’s career like was expected so they need an upgrade at the position. They may consider Sean Weatherspoon at 19, but Mike Smith is a positional value guy so I don’t think that’s very likely. More likely, they’ll take advantage of the depth of this outside linebacker class and draft a weak side linebacker like Rennie Curran or Dekoda Watson in the 4^th, or a strong side guy like Perry Riley or AJ Edds, and move Stephen Nicholas to the weak side where I think he fits better.

Drafted Sean Weatherspoon (#19) 

Wide Receiver:

Michael Jenkins is a decent run blocker, but a below average wide receiver. If a receiver falls to them that they like, they could pull the trigger. That makes Dez Bryant a possibility at 19.

Drafted Kerry Meier (#165) 

Tight End:

Tony Gonzalez was a nice addition last offseason, but he only has one year left on his deal and, though I expect him to return, he’s also in the twilight of his career and could be getting ready to hang them up and wait for the Hall of Fame call. This isn’t a pressing need this offseason, but if a tight end they like falls to them, they could pull the trigger. They make also want to add a better run blocking tight end.

Defensive Tackle:

Both Babineaux and Peria Jerry are under tackles that weigh less than 300 pounds. They may want to add some meat into the defensive tackle rotation in the late rounds.

Drafted Corey Peters (#83) 

Free agents:

QB DJ Shockley 

QB Chris Redman- resigned 2 years 5 million

RB Jerious Norwood (restricted)- resigned 1 year 1.7 million

RB Jason Snelling (restricted)- resigned 1 year 1.6 million

WR Brian Finneran- resigned 

OT Tyson Clabo (restricted)- resigned 1 year 2.5 million

G Harvey Dahl (restricted)- resigned 1 year 2.5 million

G Quinn Ojinnaka (restricted)- resigned 1 year 1.1 million

CB Brent Grimes (restricted)- resigned

CB Brian Williams- resigned 1 year 

CB Tye Hill- signed with Titans one year

S Jamaal Fudge (restricted)

S Antoine Harris (restricted)

S Charlie Peprah (restricted)- not tendered, signed with Packers

P Michael Koenen (restricted)- resigned 1 year 2.7 million

Offseason moves:

Falcons waive QB D.J. Shockley 

Falcons re-sign RB Jerious Norwood

Falcons re-sign P Michael Koenen

Falcons re-sign RB Jason Snelling

Falcons re-sign G Harvey Dahl

Falcons re-sign OT Tyson Clabo

Falcons re-sign G Quinn Ojinnaka

Falcons cut CB Tye Hill

Falcons re-sign CB Brent Grimes

Falcons trade CB Chris Houston to Lions for 2010 6th-rounder and exchange of 2010 5th-rounders

Falcons sign CB Dunta Robinson

Falcons re-sign QB Chris Redman

Falcons re-sign CB Brian Williams

Falcons tender RB Jason Snelling

Falcons tender P Michael Koenen

Falcons tender G Harvey Dahl

Falcons tender RB Jerious Norwood

Falcons tender OT Tyson Clabo

Falcons tender G Quinn Ojinnaka

Falcons re-sign WR Brian Finneran 

By Ryan Glab 

Bears offense vs. Eagles defense

Since the bye week, the Bears have called 108 run plays out of 204 plays from scrimmage. That’s a 52-48 run-to-pass ratio. The offense can’t get much more balanced than that and major credit needs to go to Lovie Smith and Mike Martz for organizing such a successful game plan in the Bears’ last three victories. The players are not without their due, either. It’s one thing to call a smart play but it’s another to be able to execute it. The truth is that the offensive line, while far from great, has been playing much better the past three weeks. While the duo of Matt Forte and Chester Taylor is averaging an anemic 2.9 yards per carry, the more important statistic is that the line has allowed just six sacks in those three games, which is three less than they allowed in the first half of the Giants game alone. If the Bears are going to make a playoff push, they need Jay Cutler to be healthy and Martz and the offensive line are doing a good job of that since the bye week. This week the Bears will face an Eagles team that is ninth in the league with 26 sacks, so protection is vital. The Eagles also lead the league with 19 interceptions, four more than the Bears’ opportunistic defense has recorded. They’ve forced eight fumbles and have recovered seven of them. The Eagles defense has also scored two touchdowns off turnovers. One of the things Philadelphia does not do well is keep opponents off the scoreboard. They are ranked 19th with 22.6 points per game allowed, which is one of the reasons why their offense needs to put up so many points. The Bears offense, however, does not score many points as they rank 25th with just 19.1 points per game scored. The biggest challenge the Bears face is protecting Cutler against Trent Cole, the Eagles defensive end who leads the team with seven sacks. They’ve got a talented linebacking corps in middle linebacker Stewart Bradley, and outside linebackers Ernie Sims and Moise Fokou. I’m probably most impressed with their safeties, though. Strong safety Quintin Mikell leads the team with 57 tackles and has a sack, a forced fumble, and an interception. Rookie free safety Nate Allen — whom I wanted the Bears to trade up to get in this year’s draft — is fourth on the team in tackles and has a sack and three interceptions. The Bears got a big break — they’ve been getting a lot of those this year — when it was reported that Eagles cornerback Asante Samuel, who is a ballhawk with seven interceptions on the year and 42 throughout his eight-year career, will not play because of a knee injury.

Advantage: Eagles

Bears defense vs. Eagles offense

It doesn’t matter who has been on the field opposite the Bears, the defense has locked down opponents this year. The Bears have the No. 3 defense in the league and the No. 1 scoring defense. Would you like to see more sacks? Absolutely. The Bears are only 23rd in that department with just 19 on the season — less than two per game on average. But you can’t argue with success. You can try, but it would be a futile fight. With an offense that doesn’t score much and a quarterback that still has turnover issues, the defense is the main cog responsible for the 7-3 record up to this point. The defense leads the league with an astounding six touchdown passes allowed. The pass defense is ranked 13th in the league, which is impressive for a Lovie Smith defense which is known for allowing lots of yards but few points. The run defense is second in the league and is allowing just 3.5 yards per carry, third-best in the league. The Cover 2 defense is frustrating to watch, absolutely. It’s discouraging to watch opponents methodically move down the field with small chunks of yards. But it’s also working now that Smith has the horses he needs in place. They have a pass rush that is getting to the quarterback, even if it’s not causing high sack totals. They have a trio of linebackers among the best in the business, perhaps the best of any 4-3 defense in the league. Charles Tillman gives up passing plays here and there but is still the most valuable turnover maker in the league — from a forced fumble perspective; not so much from interceptions. And most impressive of all is the play of the safeties. It was a big concern heading into the season but Danieal Manning appears to have finally found a home at strong safety and is playing really well. Chris Harris makes his fair share of mistakes but is a force as a blitzer and is strong in run support. It’s a good thing the defense is working as it should because the Bears will need it to do just that this week against Michael Vick and the explosive Eagles offense. The Eagles have the second-highest scoring offense in the league and it’ll be interesting to see what they can do against the Bears’ league-best scoring defense. Once upon a time before he went to prison, Vick was an average passer who could do damage with his legs. Now he seems to have improved his accuracy and has once again become one of the most dangerous players in the league. It’ll be incumbent on the defense to keep him contained in the pocket. Once he leaves the pocket, he can make plays while on the move, either throwing downfield to his speedy receivers, DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, or tucking away the ball and picking up yards with his legs. If Vick does leave the pocket, it’s important that he is funneled to his right. Being a left-handed quarterback, it’s more difficult for him to throw when he’s moving to his right and he more often than not will not throw it. The key to the defensive effort will be to avoid mental mistakes and the secondary needs to wait until Vick crosses the line of scrimmage before breaking coverage, otherwise they could get beat deep. Because the Bears have such great speed at linebacker, and an athletic freak in Julius Peppers who can keep containment and not let Vick get outside of him, they have the edge in this matchup.

Advantage: Bears

Special Teams

This game figures to be a close battle and in tight games there is perhaps no more important phase than the special teams. Field position will be a critical component to the outcome of the game and the Bears are well equipped to win this battle. Devin Hester did not get an opportunity to return a kickoff last week because Miami was held scoreless. Their one kickoff attempt last week — to open the second half — was kicked away from Hester and fielded by Rashied Davis, who took it out to the 30-yard-line. If the Eagles want to kick away from Hester — which they’ll probably do with a smart coach like Andy Reid — that’s fine, because the Bears will end up with good field position. If they do make the mistake of kicking to Hester, on either kickoffs or punts, they’re in for a world of hurt. The Eagles have not had great success returning kicks this year. Their top kick returner, Ellis Hobbs, is out for the season with a neck injury, but he only averaged 21.6 yards per return, which is near the bottom of the league. His replacement, Jorrick Calvin, averages slightly better at 22.1 yards per return. Calvin and the speedy Jackson have split punt return duties this year but neither one has made a huge impact. Calvin averages 10.5 yards per return and Jackson just 7.9. Jackson is a home run threat, though, and needs to be taken seriously. After a small slump in which he missed three field goals in a row, Robbie Gould appears to be working out of it after making all three kicks last week against Miami. The Bears are going to need his reliability this week if the game is a close one. Long-time veteran David Akers is a solid pro for the Eagles and he’s converted on 20 of 25 field goals this year. He’s definitely lost some distance over the years. Eagles punter Sav Rocca is eighth in the league with a 45.4 yards per punt average. Brad Maynard is way at the bottom of the list with a 39.0 average. The Bears will need his directional punting to help pin the Eagles offense deep in its own territory.

Advantage: Bears

Intangibles

And so this is the test that so many skeptical Bears fans have been waiting to see for 10 weeks. Even when the Bears beat the Packers, arguably the best team in the conference, in Week 3 at Soldier Field, there were doubters because of how many penalties the Packers racked up. The Bears will now face a legitimate offense that averages 28.4 points per game, second-most in the league. They now face an offense ranked eighth with 248.6 yards per game. And they now face an offense with the highest-rated quarterback in the NFL in Michael Vick (108.7). If the Bears get the job done, I don’t want to hear any more excuses. If they contain that explosive offense and are able to put up more points than Philadelphia’s high octane unit, then they’ll be considered one of, if not the best team in the NFC. All of that is easier said than done, though. The Bears don’t have to be great to win this game; they just have to be mistake-free, or at least make fewer mistakes than the Eagles do. The Bears have the team speed to match up with the Eagles. Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs, and Pisa Tinoisamoa — who had full participation in practice Thursday and is expected to start — can play sideline to sideline and contain Vick. Peppers can chase Vick faster than any defensive end has this season. So the real test is whether the Bears’ secondary can play disciplined football and not give up the big play. Vick has not thrown an interception this season in 191 pass attempts, which explains why his quarterback rating is so high. Something tells me that’s going to change this week, or he at least might fumble the ball. The Bears coaching staff, while not perfect, has been the best one under the Lovie Smith watch and is ready for a game like this. The playing surface at Soldier Field is bad, and that usually affects the road team more than the home team because the Bears are more used to playing on it. That may just slow down the Eagles offense enough for the Bears to take advantage. Are the Bears better than the Eagles? We don’t know for sure, but these are the types of big games that Lovie’s gang usually wins.

Advantage: Bears

Final Score: Chicago 24, Philadelphia 21

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100 Once in a decade prospect 
95-99 Elite talent 
90-95 Solid top 10 pick 
85-90 Solid first round pick 
80-85 Late 1st-early 2nd 
75-80 Solid 2nd round pick 
70-75 Solid 3rd round pick 
65-70 3rd-4th round pick 
60-65 4th-5th round pick 
55-60 5th round pick 
50-55 6th round pick 
45-50 7th round pick 
40-45 Undrafted, invite to training camp 
30-40 Career practice squader 
20-30 No NFL future 
0-20 No football future 

Defensive End/Rush Linebacker 

Michigan

6-1 268

40 time: 4.69

Draft board overall prospect rank: #14

Draft board defensive end rank: #2

Overall rating: 87*

1/30/10: Graham had a huge Senior Bowl week. It started out bad when he measured up at just over 6 feet and with the shortest arms of any defensive lineman, but he really impressed in practice and even more so in the game. He won Senior Bowl MVP with 2 sacks, 1 forced fumble, a tackle for a loss, and 5 tackles. He was disruptive on almost every play and had more signature plays than any other player. He really hustled and earned a lot of praise from the commentators. He chased down Jarrett Brown, the fastest quarterback on either roster, from behind, something that will only show up on the stat sheet as a tackle. He’s a former linebacker, with an excellent motor and an excellent pass rushing repertoire, but he’s also extremely stout and disruptive against the run. He can play both 4-3 left end and 4-3 right end, in addition to rush linebacker. The commentators compared him to LaMarr Woodley of the Pittsburgh Steelers and I think that comparison is dead on. I think he cemented himself as a 1st round pick.  

1/27/10: Measuring in at just over 6 feet at his weigh in isn’t good, but he’s making scouts forget about his lack of height, with his play at practice this week. He has a very solid base and looks like a legitimate defensive line player in the NFL. His form against the run needs to be improved, but he has shown great speed rushing moves in addition to being one of the best young bull rushers at the Senior Bowl. If he can impress in coverage, he could be a 1^st round pick as either a defensive end or rush linebacker. 

1/21/10: With 29 sacks in the last 3 years against Big 10 competition, Graham is a pass rushing machine, but despite his size, he isn’t great against the run. He’s best fit as a rush linebacker at the next level and I can’t see him fitting all schemes. His 40 time isn’t great either so he’ll be viewed as a bit of a tweener by the scouts and that could drop him down in the 3^rd round. He has first round upside as a rush linebacker though despite his lack of height and timed speed, assuming he can transition to a new position well and hold up in pass coverage.

            9/7/09: Brandon Graham is that rare type of complete every down left end. He has strength, an excellent pass rushing repertoire, and good speed for his size. He had 20 tackles for losses last season to go with 10 sacks, a bright spot in a down year for Michigan football. His lack of ideal height will hurt his draft stock more than it will hurt his ability to get to the quarterback. He is very strong. 270 pounds may not seems like much but at 6-2 that’s the equivalent of about 280 pounds from someone who is 6-4 or 6-5. The fact that he could run a 40 in the 4.6s, to go with that kind of strength, is amazing, especially when you consider his track record as a pass rusher. He has 18.5 sacks in his last 2 seasons despite not starting the whole season in 2008. His strength has not really translated to success at stopping the run just yet, but he has size, quickness, and long arms so he’s a decent run stopper with the ability to get better with practice. I’m not sure he can make the transition to 3-4 rush linebacker because of his size, but I don’t think he’s big enough or a good enough fit to play 3-4 defensive end so he should be limited by the number of teams that can draft him. However, Robert Ayers had the same problem last year and was drafted 18^thoverall by the Broncos, who are hoping to make the switch to the 3-4 this season. As a pass rusher, he is too quick and too fast for most right tackles and too strong for most left tackles so he creates matchup problems wherever you line him up, though he is likely to line up at left end because of his size. His height can be a bit of a disadvantage because bigger tackles can make it so he can’t see the quarterback, making it harder for Graham to sack him, especially if he is a more mobile quarterback that moves a lot. He has long arms though to push off of bigger tackles to relocate the quarterback and he has great closing speed to compliment his size and agility. With another big season, he’ll be a first round lock and I project big things out of him in the future.

NFL Comparison: LaMarr Woodley

*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here

9/3/11: Another quarterback who has looked very, very good this preseason is Colt McCoy. McCoy gets a new offensive coordinator and head coach in Pat Shurmur who will put in a west coast offense scheme that figures to suit McCoy’s strengths and Greg Little is proving himself to be a very talented young receiver. They have a lot of holes, but with a weaker schedule, they could easily be this season’s Tampa Bay, a young team that beats who they’re supposed to and gets better as the season goes on. 

3^rd round pick Colt McCoy took over week 6 as the starter, as a rookie, after 5 weeks of Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace. He lost by a lot in his debut against the Steelers, but after that, he had 4 straight strong performances. The Browns beat the Saints and the Patriots in consecutive games, and then came within 2 minutes of an overtime tie with the Jets, and then hung within 4 points of a Jaguars team that was in first place in their division at the time. McCoy was being called a right handed Steve Young.

However, McCoy got hurt and didn’t return until week 15. He wasn’t the same. The Browns lost in his first game back to the lowly Bengals and then McCoy threw a combined 6 interceptions in back-to-back losses to the Ravens and the Steelers. The Browns finished 5-11. Whether McCoy hit a rookie wall or he never recovered from that ankle injury, something was different with him after he returned.

Luckily for Browns fans, McCoy is no longer a rookie and his ankle is most likely 100% right now. He’s the undisputed starter for a franchise that almost yearly has quarterback battles in camp. He should have a very solid year as the starter. He played put in a lot of work in the offseason and is a natural fit for new Head Coach Pat Shurmur’s West Coast Offense. He played very well in his first preseason game. He has a chance to be this season’s Josh Freeman.

Speaking of someone who wore down late, Peyton Hillis averaged a mere 3.9 yards per carry in the 2^nd half, another possible reason why McCoy wasn’t the same when he came back. It’s a lot harder to play quarterback if the defense doesn’t fear your running game. Hillis is expected to be given less of a load this season with 2010 2^nd round pick Montario Hardesty and free agent acquisition Brandon Jackson shouldering some of the load.

Up front, former first round picks at left tackle and center respectively, Joe Thomas and Alex Mack are among the best in the league at their position. However, the other 3 offensive line slots are a little bit more of a question. Eric Steinbach and Tony Pashos remain starters at left guard and right tackle respectively. Steinbach, once one of the best in the league at his position, had a very poor year last year. Pashos, meanwhile, is often injured and fairly mediocre when healthy.

At right guard, 2010 3^rd round pick Shawn Lauvao takes over for free agent departure Pork Chop Womack. Lauvao, a surprise 3^rd rounder, struggled as a rookie last year. The Browns do have two players in John Greco and Jason Pinkston who could be interesting for them up front. Team president Mike Holmgren specifically traded for Greco from St. Louis and given his track record, that means Greco could end up being a diamond in the rough for them at guard. Pinkston, meanwhile, is a 5^th round pick rookie who could play guard or tackle for them. Still, this offensive line could be a lot better.

The Browns traded down from the 6^th slot in the draft to get 5 picks, 2 of which were in the first 2 rounds this year, with one being a 2012 1^st rounder. The Browns were not a piece away from a title or anything, so it was a smart move to get 2 early picks this year and an early pick next year. However, doing so cost them a chance to get Alabama’s Julio Jones, who could have been the solution to their wide receiver problems. The Browns will hope Greg Little, who was drafted with the 2^nd round pick from Atlanta, acquired in the deal that sent Jones to Atlanta, can be what Jones could have been for them, a #1 receiver.

Little certainly has a lot stacked against him. He was suspended for the entirety of the 2010 season, a season that was supposed to be a breakout season for the physical freak from North Carolina. Combine that with the lockout and he went close to 2 years between organized team activities. He has plenty of talent, and experience with the West Coast offense in college, and I really would have liked his chances as their #1 receiver had we not had a lockout, but he does have a lot stacked against him as a rookie.

The Browns better hope Little can overcome the odds, because, other than him, McCoy’s options are pretty limited. Brian Robiskie and Mohamed Massaquoi are former 2^nd round picks going into their 3^rd year, that magical year when all young receivers seem to break out, but neither of them have done anything in their first 2 years in the league to suggest much upside is even there, especially Robiskie.

McCoy’s most reliable target is probably Ben Watson. The former bust in New England finally came into his own last year after signing a 3 year deal with the Browns, catching more balls, 68, than he had in his previous two seasons combined, 51. He and McCoy had great chemistry in the few games McCoy played last year, but he’s still just a tight end and you need talent at wide receiver to win in this league.

I had the Browns as a potential sleeper team right around the time the lockout ended. I liked Colt McCoy at quarterback and I thought they could have been this year’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with an easy schedule. They had a lot of money to work with in free agency as well. However, they did next to nothing in free agency and they still don’t have the front 7 to be a competitive team in this league.

On their defensive line, the Browns have two of their early draft picks. Phil Taylor was drafted with their first round pick from Atlanta (after they moved up a few spots to get him). He will start at defensive tackle for them. 2^nd round pick Jabaal Sheard, meanwhile, is penciled in at defensive end as a starter. Both are talented players, but, as with most rookies, they’ll be hurt by the lockout.

Next to Taylor inside is Ahtyba Rubin, a talented run stuffer. However, while both Taylor and Rubin are stout against the run, neither offers much of an interior pass rush. I would have preferred to see the Browns draft a more traditional pass rushing under tackle in place of Taylor. A more traditional pass rushing under tackle would have complimented Rubin better. They don’t even have a talented 3^rd down pass rusher in reserve.

The situation is even worse at defensive end. The Browns are transitioning to a full time 4-3 this year. However, their rush linebackers from last year can’t play defensive end for them. Matt Roth left as a free agent and Marcus Bernard, the team’s leading pass rusher with 7.5 sacks, is too small to be an every down end in this league. He fits better as a nickel rusher in a 4-3. Their pass rush was already bad last year, with a mere 29 sacks. Other than Benard, no one had more than 3.5 sacks last year for them. Changing schemes, especially with a shortened offseason, isn’t helping.

Jabaal Sheard will start at one defensive end spot, not necessarily because he’s ready to do so, but out of necessity. On the other side, they may force Marcus Bernard to start, though he’d be better as a pure nickel rusher. If not Bernard, then it will be Jayme Mitchell, a former reserve end of the Minnesota Vikings. Like John Greco, Mike Holmgren specifically traded for Mitchell. Holmgren has found diamonds in the rough before, but I have my doubts with Mitchell.

At linebacker, things don’t get much better. D’Qwell Jackson is the only above average linebacker they have and he’s missed 26 games in the past 2 years since leading the league in tackles in 2008. He’ll start in the middle, but is no guarantee. Chris Gocong and Scott Fujita will start around Jackson. Both are marginal players. If Jackson gets hurt, the Browns will have to hope 2009 4^th round pick Kaluka Maiava can step up in his 3^rd season as they cut veterans David Bowens and Eric Barton in the offseason. To this point in his career, Maiava has not shown much for Browns fans to be excited about.

The secondary is really the strength of the defense. Joe Haden wasn’t even a starter for this team’s week 1 last year, but, by the end of it, he proved himself to be one of the best young cornerbacks in the game. The 7^th overall pick in 2010 could give Devin McCourty a run for his money as the best cornerback in the 2010 draft class this season. Haden allowed just 2 touchdowns to 6 interceptions and allowed a completion percentage of 53.2%. The only qualified cornerbacks that allowed a lower quarterback rating against last year were Asante Samuel and Tramon Williams.

Unfortunately for the Browns, Haden isn’t nearly as valuable to them as he could be because opposing quarterbacks can just throw away from him. Veteran Sheldon Brown will start opposite him. In stark contrast to Haden, Brown had the 3^rd highest quarterback rating against. Only Mike Jenkins and Eric Wright were worse. Brown surrendered 7 touchdowns to 2 interceptions and allowed a completion percentage of 63.9%. He’s 32 years old so he’s not going to get much better.

Unfortunately, the Browns don’t have much to push Brown and he’s really only starting by default. 5^th round pick Buster Skrine is expected to be the nickel back for them though he could get beaten out in camp by free agent acquisition Dmitri Patterson. That’s how thin their cornerback depth is. Patterson was terrible for the Eagles as a starter after Ellis Hobbs went down. He was exiled from Philadelphia after they traded for Dominique Rodgers Cromartie and signed Nnamdi Asomugha.

At safety, TJ Ward was a huge surprise as a rookie last year. Though widely considered a 4^th or 5^th round prospect, Mike Holmgren took him in the 2^nd and Ward lived up to it. He’s not great in pass coverage, but he’s a very good run stuffer as a strong safety. Free safety is the bigger issue. Two mediocre players, Usama Young and Mike Adams will battle it out.

Given that, it wouldn’t surprise me if rookie 7^th round pick Eric Hagg ended up in the starting lineup before season’s end. I thought Hagg was a nice pick when they got him, but obviously if he ends up in the starting lineup this year, you know something went wrong. He wasn’t regarded much higher than a 5^th round pick anywhere and guys like that don’t start as rookies unless they really surprise or a situation gets really desperate at a position.

Overall, I think this team is a year away. They have a better situation at quarterback than they’ve had in many years and Mike Holmgren has this team in the right direction. I trust his leadership. However, the talent simply isn’t there in the receiving corps and the front 7. They also have holes in the secondary and on the offensive line. They won’t be awful, but I think they’re going to endure another losing season in Cleveland.

Quarterback: B-

Running backs: B+

Offensive line: C

Receiving corps: C-

Run defense: C+

Pass rush: D

Pass coverage: C+

Coaching: C+

Projection: 11-5 2nd in AFC North

When the Buccaneers cut Jeff Faine and moved the recently resigned Jeremy Zuttah to center, it opened up a hole at left guard for them and with so much cap space, they became an obvious destination for Carl Nicks, the top free agent guard and arguably the top guard in the league. Nicks got 5 years, 47.5 million with 31 million guaranteed.

If you compare that to other megadeals that guards have gotten, Logan Mankins, 6 years, 51 million, with 30 million guaranteed, Jahri Evans, 7 years, 56.7 million, and Tampa Bay’s Davin Joseph, 7 years, 53 million, with 19 million guaranteed, Nicks didn’t get as long of deals as them, but he has the highest per season salary and biggest amount of guaranteed money.

However, Nicks deserves to be the league’s highest paid guard. He’s the only guard who has ranked in the top 4 among guards by ProFootballFocus in each of the last 3 seasons, including 1^st and 2^nd in the last 2 seasons. Did they overpay a little, maybe, after all, he is just a guard, but at the same time, it doesn’t seem like Evans was going to Tampa Bay just to chase the money. I don’t even think New Orleans made him an offer, which is why he didn’t resign in New Orleans. New Orleans’ cap situation is such that they couldn’t have given Nicks a reasonable offer without extending Drew Brees and removing the franchise tag from him. Those negotiations aren’t close so Nicks was free to sign anywhere. He didn’t leave New Orleans just for money.

Grade: A

29. OT Gabe Carimi A

Seattle passing on Derek Sherrod, Ben Ijalana and Gabe Carimi for James Carpenter allowed the Bears to get their choice between those 3. Given their struggles upfront, I don’t think they could have gone wrong with this pick so long as they took one of those three. I had Carimi rated highest, but Ijalana and Sherrod have more upside.

53. DT Stephen Paea A

Paea was being mentioned as an option at 29 should all of the first round tackles be off the board, so getting him at 53 is a very smart move for this borderline first round prospect. They moved up for him, but doing so was smart as it was probably necessary to get their guy.

93. S Chris Conte D

I didn’t have safety high on their needs list. I also didn’t have close to a 3^rd round grade on Conte. The only reason this isn’t an F is because they’ll need depth at safety should Danieal Manning leave as a free agent.

160. QB Nathan Enderle B

Quarterback shouldn’t be higher on their needs list than another running back to replace Chester Taylor and his 2.4 YPC average or even another offensive lineman. However, they may look to move Caleb Hanie through a trade, once that’s allowed. Some desperate team might overpay for him based off of his performance in the NFC Championship game. If they did that, they’d have nothing at quarterback should Jay Cutler get “hurt” again. Enderle fits the range.

195. OLB JT Thomas B

Unfortunately, Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher won’t be able to play forever. While their linebackers are a strength now, they have a lot of age there. Thomas brings youth, can play special teams, and fits the range. A running back, offensive lineman, and a wide receiver would have been higher on my needs list, however.

Overall:

I really liked what they did with their first two picks. Obviously it would have been tough for them to mess up at 29 given the options available, but I’m still giving credit where credit is due. Moving up for Paea in the 2^nd was smart. The Chris Conte pick didn’t make much sense and that’s the reason this isn’t an A grade, but they did end decently. I would have liked to have seen them take another offensive lineman, a wide receiver, and a running back over a safety, a quarterback, and an outside linebacker, but the last two weren’t terrible ideas.

Grade: B+