QB Robert Griffin UP

There was some speculation that Griffin would measure in at close to 6, which would be a red flag. However, he measured in at 6-2 3/8, smaller, but he has pretty much the same build Aaron Rodgers does. Griffin’s abilities remind me of Rodgers’ coming out of Cal (not saying he’ll be as good as Rodgers) and I think he has that kind of upside. One thing he’ll need to learn to do, which Rodgers learned to do, is slide in the open field to avoid injuries. Griffin is a smart kid though so I’m not too worried about him having to learn to do that.

QB Ryan Tannehill DOWN

Not a major red flag, but Tannehill had the smallest hands of any quarterback at the combine with 9 inches. This could be a sign that he’ll be a fumble prone quarterback, but it’s hardly damning.

RB Edwin Baker DOWN

Still trying to figure out why this kid declared after a disappointing senior season in which he averaged 3.9 yards per carry on 170 carries and scored just 5 times. Baker also caught just 5 balls last season and small hands might be part of the problem. Baker had 8 1/8 inch hands, which will hurt him as a pass catcher and pass blocker, as well as with fumbles. The 5-8 204 is in danger of going undrafted.

RB Ronnie Hillman UP

Hillman bulked up from 5-9 195 to 200 pounds. 200 pounds seems to be the threshold for running backs in the NFL. I’m not saying this makes him an every down back or anything, but it’ll make him more attractive to NFL teams. Hillman is the same size Ray Rice was coming out of Rutgers, but the problem, for me, is that I don’t think he’s as talented as Rice. He’ll be a nice scat back at the next level, but nothing more.

RB LaMichael James UP

James also bulked up, from 185 to 194. He’s not at 200 pounds, but 5-8 194 looks better than 5-9 185. I still think he’s a 3^rd down back at the next level.

 

WR BJ Cunningham DOWN

Cunningham has solid size at 6-1 211, so his hands don’t make a ton of sense. 8 1/8 inch hands don’t help him much.

WR Alshon Jeffery UP

Jeffery might have had the best day of any prospect. Rumored to be in the 240s or 250s, Jeffery weighed in at 216 pounds. The 6-3 receiver also had 10 ¼ inch hands. It wouldn’t surprise me if he ran a solid 40 time later this week, which would really help his slipping stock.

WR Dwight Jones DOWN

Jones weighed in at 230 pounds at 6-3. There are rumors that he has poor work ethic and is out of shape. He didn’t look to be in the best shape and his stock could take a real hit if he runs a poor 40 time later this week.

WR Derek Moye DOWN

Moye is 6-4 209 so 8 ¼ inch hands don’t make any sense. Those won’t help him at the next level.

WR Tommy Streeter UP

A lot of times, really tall receivers will measure in shorter than they are listed. That wasn’t the case for Streeter, who still measured in at 6-5, the tallest receiver in Indianapolis.

TE Dwayne Allen UP

Allen wasn’t asked to do a ton of blocking at Clemson, but he’s showing he has the strength to do so at the next level. The 6-3 255 pound Allen benched 27 reps of 225. A potential 3 down tight end, Allen could go easily go in the first round.

TE Orson Charles UP

Charles weighed in 10 pounds heavier than the 241 he was listed as at Georgia and then proved it was all muscle, benching 35 reps of 225. The 6-2 251 pounder is also proving he has upside as a blocker at the next level and looks like he’ll go in the 2^nd round.

TE Coby Fleener UP

Fleener is another tight end having a good week so far. He benched 27 reps of 225 at 6-6 247. Like Allen and Charles, he should go in the first 2 rounds.

TE Cory Harkey DOWN

Harkey is a great blocker who only caught 28 passes in his career  at UCLA, so it doesn’t make a ton of sense that the 6-4 260 pounder put up just 13 reps of 225.

OT Mike Adams DOWN

Adams is known as a powerful run blocker, but 19 reps of 225 at 6-7 323 doesn’t look good.

G Cordy Glenn UP

Cordy Glenn is freakishly strong. The 6-5 345 pounder put up 31 reps despite 35 ¾ inch arms.

C Peter Konz DOWN

Konz is a powerful run blocker, but 18 reps doesn’t help. He’s still likely a first rounder.

C David Molk UP

Molk put up the highest total with 41 reps of 225. He’s not the biggest or the most athletic center, but he’s a smart, tough run blocker and has great functional strength.

G Kelechi Osemele UP

Osemele is another freakishly strong one. The 6-6 333 pounder put up 32 reps with 35 7/8 inch arms. 

 

 

Connor didn’t have a sure starting job in Carolina, but not for lack of talent. He’s been very good for them with all of the injuries they’ve had at linebackers over the past few years. He’s deserving of a starting job someone. The Cowboys already have 2011 2^nd round pick Bruce Carter to go with Sean Lee, but they don’t have a lot of depth at the position and Connor is a more proven player than Carter, who will likely stay in his reserve/special teams role. It wasn’t their biggest need, but for 6.5 million over 2 years, it almost had to be done.

Grade: A

 

 

I don’t know how much this deal is for, but if the Panthers plan to start him week 1 like John Clayton suggested they could, they’re just stupid. I understand letting Newton sit behind a veteran presence is a good idea, but what the hell is Newton going to learn from Anderson. How to overthrow everyone? How to blow up in a post game press conference? How to take this shit seriously? How to win a game despite completing 2 passes?

If the Panthers were smart, they’d let Jimmy Clausen start a few more games in hopes of potentially boosting his trade value. Newton doesn’t necessarily need to sit behind an accomplished veteran (if you can even call Anderson that). He just needs to sit for a little bit, get a complete grasp of the offense, especially after a lockout shortened offseason, so he doesn’t go out there and start building bad habits.

Grade: F 

 

Trade for Washington: The Redskins botched this whole McNabb situation. They got him for a 2^nd and a 4^th last year, started him with moderate success for a few weeks, benched him randomly for Rex Grossman, gave him a ridiculous contract extension, then benched him again for Rex Grossman, this time permanently, angering him to the point where they had to trade him or release him. Credit them for getting something for him, rather than having to outright release him, but blame them for botching this whole situation. McNabb isn’t great, but he’s better than anyone else they had at quarterback. I’m going to average those two things out and give them a C.

Grade: C

Trade for Minnesota: Washington messing up the McNabb situation gave Minnesota a legitimate stopgap starting quarterback for at least a year. Andy Reid made McNabb look better than he was in Philadelphia, but I think he can still be a competent starter in the NFL. The Vikings have loads of other problems so I think they’re still the worst team in their division (behind Green Bay, Chicago, and Detroit), but Christian Ponder is going to benefit from a year on the bench behind a veteran. Rookie quarterbacks normally do. McNabb is coming cheap for them, costing them up to 2 late round picks, and probably about 6 million over a year after his restructured contract (no official word on what he’ll be paid next year, but the Vikings said they weren’t going to accept this unless he took 6 million or less for next year).

Grade: A

 

 

Middle Linebacker

Andy Reid has never put great value in the linebacker position and it showed last season. Their linebacker play was awful. If Andy Reid is smart, he’ll draft a good linebacker like Luke Kuechly at 15. His job is on the line.

Outside Linebacker

One upgrade at linebacker is not enough, only Brian Rolle was even average for them at linebacker last year and they tried so many different options. With 3 picks in the first 2 rounds, it wouldn’t surprise me to see 2 of them used on linebackers, even though that not how Andy Reid does things.

Cornerback

Asante Samuel won’t be back next season. It’s just a question of what they could get for him in a trade. There was serious interest from the Lions for him, but they refused to include their first round pick. He’ll be moved. However, that leaves them with just Dominique Rodgers Cromartie after Nnamdi Asomugha. DRC had a disappointing year last year and that was in the slot. The former first round pick has only had one good season as a pro so they shouldn’t feel safe with him as their #2 cornerback next year.

 

Wide Receiver

DeSean Jackson is expected to be franchise tagged, but only because the Eagles don’t want to let him go for nothing. They’ll see what they can get for him in a trade and I still don’t expect him to be back with the team. Unless they think Riley Cooper is a capable starter, they’ll try to find one through the draft, maybe with the pick they get in return for Jackson.

Safety

The trio of Nate Allen, Jaiquawn Jarrett, and Kurt Coleman at safety wasn’t that great last season. All 3 are young so they could all improve next season, but they may want to add a veteran in the mix just in case.

Defensive Tackle

Their linebacker play wasn’t the only reason behind their struggles against the run last year. Their defensive tackle play wasn’t great either. They love rotation at the position and have several free agents there this offseason, while Mike Patterson, unfortunately, will probably need brain surgery this offseason so he’s a question mark coming off a surprisingly fantastic 2011 season.

Guard

Evan Mathis was one of the best guards in the league last year, but he’s a free agent. He’ll obviously need to be resigned, but they’ll want to be wary about committing too much to him because he has a questionable injury past. Even if he is resigned, some depth behind him should be had just in case. I could see them adding a veteran swing guard behind Mathis, one who could also take over at right guard if 2011 1^st round pick Danny Watkins continues to struggle.

Offensive Tackle

Todd Herremans did a great job at right tackle though but, for reasons I listed above, he could end up back at guard long term. Backup Winston Justice was awful in 2010 at right tackle so they should find a new backup right tackle.

Quarterback

Vince Young is not expected back as Michael Vick’s backup so they’ll need a new one unless they think Mike Kafka is capable of that role. The backup quarterback in Philadelphia is always a more important role than for other teams because Michael Vick can never make it through 16 games healthy. I could see them taking a new backup quarterback through the draft and trying to develop him as Vick’s future replacement. Vick turns 32 this offseason and probably won’t have the longevity of a typical quarterback because of his style of play and small frame.

Running Back

LeSean McCoy is easily one of the top 5 running backs in the league. However, what if he gets hurt? They signed Ronnie Brown for that reason last offseason, but they forgot he was awful. Brown is probably done in the NFL so they need a new backup for McCoy, someone who can spell him for a few carries per game and take over in case anything were to happen to McCoy. Preferably, they need a short yardage power compliment, which is what Brown was supposed to be.

 

 

QB RB WR TE DEF Top 100

Why do I only rank the top 15? I do this because no one really plays in leagues of more than 14 or so players so these are the only players you should be considering as QB1s. As for QB2s, that’s another whole article. More on that later.

1. Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay)

In 14 and a half games last year, Aaron Rodgers threw for 3922 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Spread that out over 16 games, and you get 4328 yards, 31 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions, which might even be an underestimate based off of how well this guy played down the stretch and into the playoffs last year.

In the 2^nd half (6.5 games) and the playoffs (4 games), he threw for 3005 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 4 picks. Spread that over 16 games and you get 4579 yards, 38 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. If he plays 16 games, I think he gets somewhere in between 4328-4579 yards, 31-38 touchdowns, and 6-12 interceptions.

On top of this, he is mobile with rushing totals of 207 yards, 316 yards, and 356 yards in his first 3 years in the league, as well as 4, 5, and 4 rushing touchdowns. The issue is health. He plays a style of football that leads to a lot of injuries and though he’s tough and can play well injured, there are certainly no guarantees he plays 16 games.

Projection: 4400 passing yards, 33 passing touchdowns, 9 interceptions, 350 rushing yards, 4 rushing touchdowns, 2 fumbles (345 pts standard, 411 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

2. Michael Vick (Philadelphia)

8/26/11: The Eagles offense looks out of sync right now. I don’t know if it’s Maclin being out or defensive coordinators having a whole offseason to figure out how to stop Vick, but this is not good for Vick’s fantasy value. Maclin should be back week 1, but he won’t be 100%. Normally I don’t like to overreact to the preseason, but Vick is being drafted as high as the top 5 as a quarterback. This has to be worrisome. 

Michael Vick was the leading fantasy scorer at quarterback last year despite missing 4 and a half games with injury. He’ll surely be the top fantasy scorer at quarterback this year, right? Not so fast. Vick really slowed down late last year. Teams were finally figuring out how to slow him down.

In his last 7 games, including the playoffs, he had 1960 passing yards, 11 passing touchdowns, 7 interceptions, 367 rushing yards, and 6 rushing touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 4480 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 839 rushing yards, 14 rushing touchdowns. However, keep in mind, he’s only played 16 games once in his career. He’s a smaller quarterback who takes a lot of hits. He won’t be healthy for 16 games. I’d say 14 games is a reasonable estimate for him.

Projection: 3700 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 700 rushing yards, 9 rushing touchdowns, 5 fumbles (322 pts standard, 366 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

3. Tom Brady (New England)

Tom Brady played some of the best and most efficient football ever seen down the stretch last year, becoming the league’s first unanimous MVP, before it all came to a crashing halt against the Jets. In his final 7 games, he threw for 1875 yards, 20 touchdowns, and no interceptions. Spread out of 16 games, that’s 4286 yards, 46 touchdowns, and no interceptions. He’ll throw some picks next year, but with his two rookie tight ends now in their 2^nd season, one could expect those numbers to even increase.

There are a few issues. One, the Jets wrote the book on how to stop this Patriots offense in their playoff win. It’s unclear whether they were simply the first team to have the personnel to play in a way that can stop the Patriots or whether they were the first team to figure out if you clog the middle and leave their outside receivers one on one with your cornerbacks, it disrupts what they try to do.

I think it was a little bit of both. Not every team is going to have Cromartie and Revis on the outside to stick one on one on the Patriots’ outside receivers, but teams will try to do what the Jets did last year against the Patriots. This is a copycat league. Fortunately for Brady, Belichick is great at making offensive adjustments. Unfortunately for Brady, they won’t have a full offseason, thanks to the lockout, to make those adjustments.

Projection: 4200 passing yards, 38 passing touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 30 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown, 1 fumble (311 pts standard, 387 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

4. Tony Romo (Dallas)

There are several reasons to like Romo this year. One, he’s healthy. Before last year’s injury, he had played all 16 games in 3 of his past 4 seasons. Two, he was playing great fantasy wise in his first 5 games last year before getting hurt, throwing for 1566 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 7 picks. Stretched across 16 games, that’s 5011 yards, 32 touchdowns, and 22 interceptions.

Third, his coach is now Jason Garrett. Garrett was able to turn Jon Kitna into a passable fantasy option late last year. In 6 and a half games last year under Garrett, Kitna threw for 1616 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. Across 16 games, that’s 4650 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. I think that might be Romo’s floor if he stays healthy this year.

Fourth, their offensive line is much improved with Tyron Smith at right tackle. Fifth, their defense and running game are still a mess so he’ll throw a lot. Their defense actually got worse once Wade Phillips was fired and Garrett took over. Plus, it’s not like Romo is a stranger to throwing 4000+ yards, throwing 4211 in 2007 and 4483 in 2009. The only issue with him is his tendency to struggle around fantasy playoff time.

Projection: 4650 yards, 31 passing touchdowns, 18 interceptions, 100 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown, 5 fumbles (280 pts standard, 342 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

5. Josh Freeman (Tampa Bay)

In his 2^nd year, Freeman threw for 3451 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, making him the 7^th rated quarterback in fantasy. Even more impressive was that he got better as the year went on. In the 11 games where LeGarrette Blount got 10+ carries (week 7 on), Freeman threw for 2408 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 3 picks. Over 16 games, that’s 3503 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. He also threw for at least 237 yards in each of his final 4 games. The only issue is he’ll have a stronger schedule this year and handle high expectations for the first time in his career.

Projection: 3600 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 350 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns, 6 fumbles (267 pts standard, 321 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

6. Drew Brees (New Orleans)

Like Manning, Brees had a down year in 2010 with 4620 passing yards, 33 touchdowns, and 22 interceptions. However, if you ignore those 22 interceptions, that’s a very good year. If he can get that interception total down into the mid teens, he could definitely be a top 5 fantasy quarterback again. That interception total was his career high by 4.

Between a Super Bowl hangover, a lack of a running game, and a bad knee, his down year was definitely explainable. He won’t have any of those 3 things this year, though a stronger running game with Mark Ingram could cut his attempts from 658, which he had in 2010, a career high. Expect his attempts to be closer to the 514 he had in 2009 with a better running game, but also his YPA to be closer to the 8.5 he had in 2009 than the 7.0 he had in 2010.

Projection: 4550 passing yards, 31 passing touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 10 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns, 7 fumbles (263 pts standard, 325 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

7. Philip Rivers (San Diego)

Rivers threw a career high 541 times last year after totals of 460, 460, 478, and 486 in his first 4 years as a starter and became a top 5 fantasy quarterback because of this. A lot of this had to do with an unreliable running game and a team that struggled to stay around .500.

With a healthy Ryan Mathews, they should run better this year and they can’t possible have worse special teams play this year than they had last year so that number should drop down to around 500. However, his YPA totals from his past 3 years are 8.4, 8.8, and 8.7 so he’ll make the most of his 500 or so attempts, all while limiting his interceptions. His 13 interceptions last year were a 3 year high.

Projection: 4300 passing yards, 29 passing touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 60 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns, 4 fumbles (262 pts standard, 230 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

 

8. Matt Ryan (Atlanta)

Matt Ryan has improved as a fantasy quarterback every season in his 3 year career, ranking 8^th last year. I expect him to continue to improve in his 4^th year as he finally has someone other than Roddy White to throw to. Whether or not you agree with their decision to move up 21 spots to take Julio Jones 6^th, there’s no denying the impact that Julio Jones has on their offense will be a positive one.

Projection: 3800 passing yards, 30 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 110 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns, 3 fumbles (257 pts standard, 317 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

9. Sam Bradford (St. Louis)

Bradford had a great rookie year, but wasn’t a great fantasy player. However, there are three reasons why the latter will change this year. One, he’s no longer a rookie. Rookie quarterbacks always struggle, but Bradford didn’t. Two, his receiving corps will be better after they spent 2^nd-4^th round picks on receivers.

Three, he has a new offensive coordinator, Josh McDaniels. McDaniels turned Matt Cassel and Kyle Orton into 3600+ yard and 21+ touchdown passers. Bradford could easily throw for 4000 yards in this scheme.

Projection: 4050 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 50 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown, 5 fumbles (241 pts standard, 291 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

10. Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh)

In 12 games last year, Roethlisberger threw for 3200 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 5 picks. If you spread that over 16 games, that’s very impressive, but he’s only once played a full 16 game season in his career. Still, spread that over 15 games and you get 4000 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. You take that out of a QB1. The only potential downside is that the 2 worst seasons of his career came the year after making the Super Bowl, though we have yet to see how he responds after losing the Super Bowl.

Projection: 3950 passing yards, 20 passing touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 150 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns, 4 fumbles (241 pts standard, 281 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

11. Matt Schaub (Houston)

Matt Schaub threw 583 times in 2009 and 574 times in 2010. I expect that number to be lower this season. Not only does Houston finally have a good running game with Arian Foster and 2010 2^nd round pick Ben Tate healthy to fall back on, Houston’s defense will be better this year with Kareem Jackson in his 2^nd year, the additions of JJ Watt, Brooks Reed, Brandon Harris, Johnathan Joseph, and Danieal Manning, as well as a healthy DeMeco Ryans and Wade Phillips as defensive coordinator. I expect Schaub to throw around 550 times this year instead so his yards will decrease.

Projection: 4250 passing yards, 23 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 30 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns, 5 fumbles (231 pts standard, 277 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

12. Peyton Manning (Indianapolis)

8/25/11: Peyton Manning is not expected to be ready for week 1 according to higher ups in the Indianapolis organization. The Colts have signed Kerry Collins as insurance. The last time Peyton Manning missed the preseason was 2008. It took him 7 games to get right. In those 7 games, the Colts went 3-4 and Peyton Manning was 162-265 (61.1%) for 1754 yards (6.6 YPA) 10 touchdowns and 9 interceptions.

Let’s say Manning misses one game, and then in his next 7 has numbers similar or slightly worse than what he had in 7 games in 2008 (remember, this is a more serious injury and he’s 3 years old) and then in the 2^nd half he has vintage Peyton Manning numbers only cut in half (180-270 for 2100 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions), that gives him this fantasy line for the season: 3854 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, 16 interceptions.

That gives him 226 fantasy points. That puts him right around what Eli Manning had in 2010 (221). Eli Manning finished 10^th in quarterback fantasy points. I don’t think that’s a completely unreasonable projection for Peyton this season. I really don’t. He has a great supporting cast on offense so I’m projecting him slightly higher than that, but not much. Stay away from this guy. He’s going to get over drafted in your league. 

8/20/11: Colts Owner Jim Irsay says that the team is preparing for the possibility that Manning misses week 1. My money’s still on him starting, but this hurts his fantasy stock. He could have a slow start to his season. 

Peyton Manning was absolutely terrible in 2010, throwing for 4700 yards, 33 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions. Hopefully my sarcasm translates through the internet. Point is, last year’s down year for Manning was not even bad. He still finished 4^th in fantasy points among quarterbacks. There’s a lot of reason to believe he’ll be better this year.

The Colts added offensive linemen with their first two picks and they didn’t do a ton to fix their running game which means he could have to throw the ball a league high 679 times again. His receiving corps, by default, should be healthier this year as well. His YPA will be closer to the 7.9 he had in 2009 than the 6.9 he had in 2010 and his attempts will be closer to the 679 he had in 2010 than the 571 he had in 2009. Am I crazy for thinking he could pass for 5000 yards?

Projection: Projection: 3900 passing yards, 27 passing touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 20 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns, 3 fumbles (228 pts standard, 282 pts 6 pt TD leagues)

13. Matt Stafford (Detroit)

8/28/11: Wow. I had questions with Stafford going into this season because he has never proved himself on the field at the NFL level. However, he’s looked amazing this season, especially in the Lions’ 3^rd preseason game. He went 12 for 14 with 2 touchdowns and 200 passing yards, good for a perfect passer rating. Detroit’s quarterbacks had 4001 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 16 picks last season even though Stafford only played 3 games.

Now add in the fact that Titus Young is replacing Bryant Johnson, one of the worst receivers in the league last season, in the slot, and that Stafford is much more talented than Hill and Stanton and Stafford could have 4200 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions if he plays 16 games. However, we have to take injuries into account so my projected stats for him are over 14 games. Still, he’s a nice low end QB1 with top 7-8 fantasy QB upside. 

8/17/11: I didn’t have Stafford ranked in my top 15 because there are questions about his healthy and there are still questions about his ability. He’s still never proven himself in the NFL. He could be very good, but there was a point when we though David Carr, and Alex Smith, and JaMarcus Russell could have been very good. However, Stafford did look very good in his first preseason game, for what it’s worth.

Projection: 3650 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 50 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown, 5 fumbles (223 pts standard, 273 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

14. Eli Manning (NY Giants)

8/21/11: Eli Manning will feel the loss of Steve Smith and Kevin Boss this season. 

With 4002 passing yards and 31 touchdowns, Eli Manning should have had a strong fantasy season. He didn’t and you can blame 25 interceptions for that. I think that number drops back down into a more typical 17-19 for him. He had never had more than 20 picks before last year and a lot of those interceptions could be blamed on their receivers. I think he has better luck this year.

Projection: 3700 passing yards, 27 passing touchdowns, 18 interceptions, 60 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns, 6 fumbles (214 pts standard, 268 pts in 6 pt TD leagues) 

15. Joe Flacco (Baltimore)

8/21/11: I should have done this update a while ago, but Flacco has lost two reliable targets in Derrick Mason and Todd Heap. Anquan Boldin is on the decline (30 catches for 353 yards and 3 touchdowns in his last 10 games last season, including playoffs) and Flacco never has looked comfortable throwing to Boldin. Mason was always the one he was comfortable throwing to and he’s gone. Lee Evans is in, but he won’t have a lot of time to learn the offense and both of his tight ends are inexperienced. He also has two rookie receivers hurt by the lockout. This will hurt his stats a bit.  

Like Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco has improved in every season of his 3 year career. Will he continue to improve in his 4^th year? Maybe, but it’s not as certain as it is with Matt Ryan, who now gets to play with Julio Jones. Joe Flacco gets two rookie receivers, Torrey Smith and Tandon Doss, but it remains to be seen what they can give as rookies. My money is on him having a very similar 2011 season to the season he had in 2010.

Projection: 3450 passing yards, 23 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 60 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown, 7 fumbles (204 pts standard, 250 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

 

 

Rush Linebacker/defensive end 

South Florida

6-3 252

40 time: 4.89

Draft board overall prospect rank: #215

Draft board rush linebacker rank: #19

Overall rating: 52* 

3/1/10:  I didn’t think his stock could drop anymore. After an amazing 14.5 sacks in 2007 as a sophomore, he has had only 9 in the two years past.  He looked awful all year and in the Senior Bowl, not giving any effort, and sucking against the run. Now, he has run an awful 40 time with a 4.89. He sucks against the run, doesn’t give any effort on the field, hasn’t had a good year in a long time, and now his future as a pass rush specialist looks in doubt after an awful 40 time.

1/30/10: He got destroyed by big blockers on run plays and made an ugly bite on a misdirection which went for a big gain. He also failed to make a fairly routine tackle. He’s not big enough to play in the trenches in the NFL and he didn’t show that he has the hustle or skills to be an elite pass rusher either. 

            10/2/09: George Selvie is in danger of being written off as a one year wonder. He was amazing with 14.5 sacks in a BCS conference in 2007. However, teams made adjustments to him and he has 7.5 sacks in the 1 plus years since. He only has 2 this year and he’s on pace to be as bad as he was last year when he had 5.5 sacks. He needs to get to the quarterback more because, he doesn’t do much else well. He’s too small to be an every down defense end. He’s fast and quick and athletic, but at 250 pounds, he’ll get destroyed on in the trenches. He projects as a rush linebacker or a nickel end and those players specialize in getting to the quarterback, so if he is struggling with double teams to get to the quarterback, his stock is going to fall. He has high upside, but his 40 time is not actually that good for his size. A mid 4.6 at 250 pounds is not jumping off the charts. His one trick in pass rushing in lining up outside and accelerating and using his quickness to get to the quarterback. He does draw double teams and that makes things easier for his teammates. He has a good motor, but he’s getting a reputation as an underachiever. He possesses an amazing initial burst and good closing speed. He has long arms and stronger than you would think. He has a good push off of blockers with his long arms, but he’ll still get knocked down far too often in the NFL trenches. He gets knocked off the line on clear running plays where he has to lineup inside in college so I expect the same thing will happen in the NFL. He needs to get his act together soon because he still has 1^st round potential, but he could very well fall into the 2^nd or 3^rd round if he doesn’t.

NFL Comparison: Jarvis Moss

*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here

By Kevin Harrison

It was right there almost a year ago.  It was the same stadium.  It was in the same month.  It was against the same team.  It was against the future Hall of Fame quarterback. And, now, after another regular season ended, the Jets were back to face the Colts.  

That eleven point lead in the first half still haunts me like does the ten point lead we had in 1998 against the Broncos in the AFC Championship Game.  This may not be the Championship Game but it is still Mr. Manning standing in the way of the Jets mission of winning the Super Bowl. 

Rex Ryan has been telling us since he was hired that we are going to win the Super Bowl.  We fell 32 minutes short last year but are back in the hunt again and he still believes we are going to win the Super Bowl.  But, first we must seek revenge on that same team that ended the dream last year.

It’s been a crazy season so far.  Twelve of the Jets 16 games have come down to the last five minutes with the Jets winning many of them including some comebacks that us Jets fans will remember forever.  And, after this first round match-up to start the postseason, another miracle comeback gets added to the Sanchize resume.

Yes, Mark Sanchez is starting to become the next generations’ Mr. Comeback with his 53 second drive, on the road, to beat the Colts by a point after things were looking bleak.

Let me back up a little bit.  The Jets had the ball and a two point lead and basically needed two first downs to end the game.  It was third and 5 and we had been driving the ball nicely with a combination of short passes and some ground and pound running.  You would think that Schottenheimer would call a short pass for a sure first down.  Instead, Sanchez overthrows the ball deep for an incompletion.  Thus, the clock stops and we have to put the ball back to the Colts.  At the time, this was an utter disaster getting the ball back in Manning’s hands.

And, in true Peyton Manning form, he drove the Colts down to field goal position with the Jets finally stopping them on 3^rd down.  However, Mr. Clutch, Adam V, was coming into the game as confident as ever to boot a 50 yard field goal to give the Colts a one point edge.

Could Mark Sanchez, the 2^nd year wonder, lead the Jets down the field with two time outs, on the road, again as he’s done so many times this year?   The Colts kick off the ball with 53 seconds left and we have Cromartie doing the returns with Brad Smith slightly injured and this was a great move to put Cromartie in as he showed a nice burst of speed on his prior return.  And, Antoino took the kick about 40 yards to put the Jets in great field goal position.

The Jets ran a few plays and a call came in that Sanchez and Braylon Edwards waved off.  Braylon said he could get open and Sanchez voiced that to Schottenheimer who then basically said, “Go for it” and Sanchez hit him.  YES.  The Jets were in field goal position.

Now, kicking game winning field goals makes me extremely ill.  We all remember the Doug Brien game, whom I still do NOT blame as no one would ever make that kick in Pittsburgh, but the kicker still always gets blamed.

And here was Nick Folk who had had a decent year replacing Jay Feely after a rough few game patch a few weeks ago.  He confidently enters the field with three seconds left and boots a 32 yard field goal to win the game.  The Jets Win.  The Jets Win.  The Jets Win.

Rex Ryan had beaten a Peyton Manning team.  The Jets win ANOTHER road playoff game.  We came back.  We beat a good team.  The Super Bowl chances are still alive.

There were a few things that I loved.  We returned to our roots with the running game.  LT and Shonn Green were looking great and you could tell that last week’s rest paid off as they both had their legs. 

I loved the play of Darrelle Revis.  Hell, he just gave up one yard to one of the BEST receivers in the game and basically made him non-existent.  I guess it sucks to get banished to Revis Island.

The Defense was amazing in general.  The Colts could barely generate a running game and Peyton didn’t have a ton of open players for his throwing game.  You can’t complain holding a Peyton Manning team to just 16 points.

Sanchez was a bit rusty in the first half throwing high many of his targets and killed us with his interception in the end zone in the end part of the second quarter.  I know he was trying to do too much but we can’t afford those kinds of mistakes as the interception negated a field goal attempt.

Cromartie getting burned on a long touchdown was one of the low points of the game and he heard it from Rex Ryan.  He looked much better after that.

And the game almost changed on the first punt with Santiono Holmes letting a ball go through his legs that almost grazed him which would have been a fumble and that could have destroyed the entire game.  Luckily, the Colts reviewed and it never grazed him but Santonio…stay the F**K away from the ball next time!

So, it’s back to New England where the Jets suffered one of the worst loses in team history.  Can we stop Tom Brady?  Can we out coach Bill Belicheck?  I know Rex Ryan doesn’t want to kiss another of his rings so let’s hope we can figure out the Patriots mystique by next Sunday.  For now, I’m gonna enjoy this game for a few more days before I start getting nervous all over again for this next huge hurdle.

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With all the injuries the Panthers had at linebacker last year, Anderson was forced into a larger role. He responded with 130 tackles, 101 of which were solo tackles. And yet the Panthers were able to resign him for 7 million over 5 years less than the 29 million over 5 the Buccaneers gave Quincy Black. This is a great, cost effective move for the Carolina Panthers.

Grade: A

 

 

Jermon Bushrod is not an elite left tackle or anything, but he’s solid at his position and guys like that don’t grow on trees. I have no idea how the Saints were able to resign this guy for 9.8 million over 2 years.

Grade: A