Outside Linebacker

Washington

6-1 245

Draft board overall prospect rank: #62

Draft board overall outside linebacker rank: #5

Overall rating: 76 (late 2^nd)

40 time: 4.70

4/23/11: All the hype at Washington has been surrounding their quarterback Jake Locker. However, even with their terrible record in recent years, they still have managed to have 2 day 2 prospects on their roster. Mason Foster is that other day 2 prospect. Like stats? How about these: 162 tackles, 106 unassisted, 14 tackles for loss, 6.5 sacks, 3 passed deflected. That’s one season for Mason Foster, his senior year.

He’s a three year starter, putting up 105 tackles in 2008 and 80 in 2009. He’s a leader on defense, a great motor, high character, vocal leader. He takes great routes to the ball and has very nice run instincts. He doesn’t have the best athleticism, but he gets by. He’s more of a run stuffer than a sideline to sideline guy and he doesn’t cover that well, but he can play both outside and inside in a 4-3 and inside in a 3-4. He’s consistent as well. His season low in tackles: 9.

I think he’ll be an above average starter at the next level, someone who racks up 100+ tackles every year, provides leadership, and does all the things he needs to for you to win the game. He’s a strong character guy who can play special teams if need be, but I think he’s good enough as a linebacker that it shouldn’t need be.

NFL Comparison: DeMeco Ryans 

 

 

I have broken my sleepers into 4 categories this year. Mid Round Upside Picks, Mid Round Value Picks, Late Round Upside Picks, Late Round Value Picks. A Mid Round Value Pick, as I will list here, is anyone available in the mid rounds (8^th-12^th) of a 12 team draft, that doesn’t have the upside of a high upside sleeper, but is just flat out being overlooked. They are a relatively safe pick that you can count on to be worth slightly more than the round you draft them in.

All average draft position (ADP) stats are as of 9/1/10 and were found at ESPN.com. ADP stats serve to provide you an estimate of when you should take these players and when you can expect them to be off of the board and thus ADP stats are crucial when dealing with upside and value picks.

TE Zach Miller- OAK

ADP: 117^th

Jason Campbell loves to throw to his tight ends. In his first 2 years with Jason Campbell at quarterback, Chris Cooley had yards totals of 786 and 849, both of which were career highs at the time. He only managed 1 touchdown in 2008, but with 8 the year before it’s safe to say 2008 was a fluke in terms of touchdowns. In 2009, despite leaving midway through his 7^th game with an injury and going down for the season, Cooley still had 29 catches for 332 yards and 2 scores. In 2009, despite not playing extensively until Cooley got hurt midway through his 7^thgame, Fred Davis had 48 catches for 509 yards and 6 scores. Combine those stats with Cooley’s and Washington tight ends had 77 catches for 841 yards and 8 scores last year. Not bad. With Jason Campbell now in Oakland, Zach Miller figures to have a great year. Miller is as talented, if not more talented than Davis and Cooley. In his last 2 years, despite playing with an ugly mix of JaMarcus Russell, Charlie Frye, and Bruce Gradkowski at quarterback, Zach Miller has averaged 61 catches and 792 yards per season. With Jason Campbell at quarterback now, he has a chance to approach 900 yards. Zach Miller has never been much of a touchdown threat, but that’s not really his fault. He may only have 4 touchdowns over the last 2 years, but that’s because the Raiders have only had 23 receiving touchdowns over the last 2 years. In fact, Miller was actually 2^nd on the team in touchdowns last year with 3. Now that they have a quarterback who can actually lead and complete drives to the end zone, Miller should be more in that 5-7 range. At 6-5, you’d figure he’d be their best goal line threat.

TE Greg Olsen- CHI

ADP: 135th

I had Greg Olsen as a potential top 5 tight end last year. That didn’t happen, he was 10^th, but I’m not giving up on him this year. Jay Cutler loves to throw to his tight ends. In Cutler’s last two years in Denver, tight end Tony Scheffler had a total of 89 catches for 1194 yards and 8 scores. For comparison’s sake, he had 31 catches for 416 and 2 scores last year with Kyle Orton. Cutler is now in his 2^nd year in Chicago, with Chicago’s receivers, and that can only help Olsen this year. Also, Mike Martz is now Chicago’s offensive coordinator, so Chicago should be throwing a bit more this year, also a good thing for Olsen. Olsen is the type of vertical threat tight end that is built to succeed in Martz’ scheme. He’s also only 25 so the former 1^st rounder probably hasn’t reached his full potential yet. Expect him to increase the 60 catches for 612 yards and 8 scores he has last year.

 

WR Mohamed Massaquoi- CLE

ADP: 148th

8/31/10: Delhomme has actually looked decent this preseason and while I don’t recommend drafting Delhomme, it definitely a good sign for Massaquoi, Delhomme’s #1 receiver.

Someone has to lead the Browns in receiving yards…right? Massaquoi was that guy last year and with a full season as their #1 receiver, he should increase his stats. He wasn’t their number one until week 4 last year. Take his stats from the last 13 games and extrapolate them across 16 games and you get 39 catches for 735 yards and 4 scores. I think that’s his floor. He, essentially, had those stats as a rookie with crap at quarterback. This year, he’s not a rookie and there’s a slight chance the Browns won’t have crap at quarterback this year. I mean you never know. Maybe Jake Delhomme will find his old form. It’s highly unlikely, but Massaquoi looks like a guy with a floor of about 700 yards, 4-6 scores, and a ceiling that’s higher than that. That makes him a WR4 with upside and a guy who can be plugged into your lineup on occasion. He’s not being drafted as that.

WR Lee Evans- BUF

ADP: 108th

Lee Evans was awful last year with a career low 44 catches for a career low 612 yards. However, that’s because he was the #2 receiver to Terrell Owens on an awful offense. TO is now gone and Evans is the main man again. I know getting Buffalo’s “main man” shouldn’t should too exciting because, yes, Buffalo is going to suck this year. However, they’ve sucked all of Lee Evans career, particularly at the quarterback position. That didn’t stop him from getting 1292 yards in 2007, 849 yards in 2008, and 1017 yards in 2009. He could pass that 1000 yard mark again.

RB Tim Hightower

ADP: 121st

8/31/10: For the 3^rd straight week, Hightower was the Cardinals’ starter at running back. Even if he isn’t the starter during the season, in favor of Chris Wells, he should get his fair share of carries because Coach Ken Whisenhunt loves his pass catching and pass blocking skills. Love him as a high upside RB4. 

8/24/10: Hightower got the start again but only managed 3 yards on 5 carries. Still, the start is more important for fantasy purposes. 

8/15/10: For his value, Hightower is a solid pickup as he’s going in the 110s on average. I wouldn’t mind having this guy as my RB4 in the 9^th or 10^th round. Wells is injury prone which means Hightower could get a start or two this season and the Cardinals made it clear in their first preseason game that they plan on using Hightower in some significant form this year. He’s a great pass catcher and Matt Leinart loves to checkdown. 

WR Jabar Gaffney

ADP: 139th

8/24/10: Gaffney has been used in the #1 receiver role in Denver this preseason and had 6 catches for 98 yards on 7 targets in his 2^nd preseason game. It appears it will be him, not Demaryius Thomas or Eddie Royal who is the impact receiver in Denver this year. Gaffney had 21 catches for 282 yards and 2 score in his final 2 regular season games last year.

 

WR Derrick Mason

ADP: 118th 

8/24/10: Despite all the new weapons the Ravens gave Joe Flacco this offseason, he’s still doing what he knows how to do best in the preseason, throwing it to Derrick Mason. Mason only has one season of 1000 yards or less in the past 10 years and could challenge for another 1000 yard season this year, even with all these new weapons around him. Even if he doesn’t get 1000 yards, he’ll be close and he’s extremely undervalued this year.

RB Leon Washington

ADP: 143rd

9/3/10: Washington has been Seattle’s best runner this preseason and sat for rest purposes in the Seahawks 4^th preseason game. They have big plans for him and I expect him to be their lead back, though they will use 3 different backs frequently this year. He’s also a great pass catcher.

 

 

 

Safety 

Florida State

6-2 215

40 time: 4.68

Draft board overall prospect rank: #91

Draft board safety rank: #10

Overall rating: 75*

3/2/10: He had two questions around him coming into this draft preseason: is he committed to the sport and how would he fare after a year away from the game? He answered the first questions alright and, from his interviews, appeared committed, but a 4.68 40 at 6-2 215 shows he may not be quite in football shape yet.  

1/30/10: He didn’t play a ton or have any signature moments, but he really did show that he is still in great shape on the plays when he did play and in his interview he really seemed committed to the sport. Both of these are good things for him. There was never an issue about his ability to play the game, just about how he would bounce back physically after a year off, and about his commitment.

1/26/10: Good to see he stayed in shape in his year away from football. 

1/23/10: A big question mark after taking a year off of football to study at Oxford. He has top 15 pick talent, but taking a year off of football, isn’t unclear how he’ll respond. We’ll get a chance to see him at the Senior Bowl next week and his stock could end up anywhere from a 2^nd to 5^th round prospect based off of the results of his Senior Bowl week, his combine, and his workouts. There’s also a possibility that he’s not fully committed to football as he has aspirations of being a neurosurgeon (not that there’s anything wrong with that) and that’s a red flag to NFL scouts, but just showing up to the Senior Bowl could cool that red flag a bit.

            7/23/09: Myron Rolle is a complicated prospect. On paper he should be a first round lock. He’s big, 6-2 218, fast, mid 4.4s 40, smart and a great leader on the field from the safety position. There are no holes in his game. However, I don’t think he is going to go in the first round. Rolle skipped his senior season of college, though he had already graduated, and his last season of NCAA eligibility, to go attend Oxford, after winning the Rhodes Scholarship, in hopes of being a neurosurgeon. Not that this is a bad thing at all, but he has shown on several occasions that academics means more to him than playing football. While the average person would say that he is a good kid with his priorities in order, NFL scouts see that as a red flag. Does he really want to play in the NFL? Is he committed to the game? On one occasion, he skipped a game to interview for the Rhodes Scholarship. Who’s to say that he won’t retire after 2-3 years in the league to become a neurosurgeon? If you use a first round pick on him, that could happen and you’d essentially be out a pick. Also, if he actually does declare for the NFL draft, as that is not a given at this point for him, he will have been out of football for a year, and who knows what that could do to him. I am giving him a 2^nd round grade for now, as I see him as a game changer who could be a real steal in the 2^nd round, but the risk is definitely still there. He has top 10 pick talent, the question is, is he committed to using it on the football field? 

NFL Comparison: Brian Dawkins (if Rolle commits to football, this is the type of special player he could be)

*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here

 

Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 Round 6 Round 7

Should Mock Fans Only Mock

This is not a mock draft update. This is an alternate mock draft. My other mock draft is what I believe will happen. This is what I believe should happen. This will not be as frequently updated because I don’t change my opinion on what should happen as much as I change what I believe will happen, but you can expect updates on this after the combine, once right after the bulk of free agency is done, maybe once or twice through pro days and than once right before the draft. My other mock which I will call the “will” mock, will continue to be updated weekly. This mock will be called the “should” mock. 

This is based off of my 2010 NFL Draft Big Board, Off-Season Needs, and my NFL Draft Strategy

See more mocks at the NFL Mock Draft Database

Be sure I check out The Football Fan Spot this Thursday during the draft for our official NFL Live Draft Blog

Updated 4/19/10 

 

St. Louis Rams- QB Jimmy Clausen (Notre Dame)

Detroit Lions- OT Russell Okung (Oklahoma State)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers- DT Ndamukong Suh (Nebraska)

Washington Redskins- OT Charles Brown (USC)

Kansas City Chiefs- S Eric Berry (Tennessee)

Seattle Seahawks- QB Sam Bradford (Oklahoma)

Cleveland Browns- 3-4 DE Gerald McCoy (Oklahoma)

Oakland Raiders- DE Derrick Morgan (Georgia Tech)

Buffalo Bills- QB Tim Tebow (Florida)

Jacksonville Jaguars- CB Joe Haden (Florida)

Denver Broncos- WR Damian Williams (USC)

Miami Dolphins- RLB Brandon Graham (Michigan)

San Francisco 49ers- MLB Rolando McClain (Alabama)

Seattle Seahawks- OT Bruce Campbell (Maryland)

New York Giants- MLB Sean Weatherspoon (Missouri)

Tennessee Titans- DT Dan Williams (Tennessee)

 

San Francisco 49ers- OT Bryan Bulaga (Iowa)

Pittsburgh Steelers- S Earl Thomas (Texas)

Atlanta Falcons- DE Everson Griffen (USC)

Houston Texans- RB Jahvid Best (California)

Cincinnati Bengals- TE Jermaine Gresham (Oklahoma)

New England Patriots- WR Dez Bryant (Oklahoma State)

Green Bay Packers- RB CJ Spiller (Clemson)

Philadelphia Eagles- CB Kyle Wilson (Boise State)

Baltimore Ravens- 3-4 DE Jared Odrick (Penn State)

Arizona Cardinals- NT Terrence Cody (Alabama)

Dallas Cowboys- G Mike Iupati (Idaho)

San Diego Chargers- 3-4 DE Brian Price (UCLA)

New York Jets- RLB Jerry Hughes (TCU)

Minnesota Vikings- CB Brandon Ghee (Wake Forest)

Indianapolis Colts-OT Trent Williams (Oklahoma)

New Orleans Saints- OLB Eric Norwood (Penn State)

 

Go on to Round 2

Or go back to the “Will” Mock Draft

Or check out other mock drafts

Or make your own

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When: January 23rd-29th

Where: Mobile, Alabama

What: A sort of combination of an All-Star game and a mini combine that scouts use to grade senior draft prospects. 

Who: (List not finalized and will be updated as more prospects accept)   

QB Andy Dalton- TCU

Posted a 34-3 record with TCU over the last 3 years, including a 13-0 record this year. He’s a four year starter. He lacks the elite arm strength and comes out of a system that inflates stats, but his 61:19 TD:INT ratio over the last 3 years is very impressive. He’s also got solid mobility and solid size at 6-3 220, but looks like a mid round prospect at best.

QB Colin Kaepernick- Nevada

Nicknamed Cam Newton of the West joining Newton and Tim Tebow as the only QBs in the 20-20 club (20 passing TDs, 20 rushing TDs). He’s a four year starter with 142 total touchdowns (82 passing, 59 rushing, 1 receiving) in his career. He lacks the mechanics and the accuracy and doesn’t have Newton’s build, weighing in at about 220 at 6-6. He’s got solid arm strength and upside, but he is a system quarterback.

QB Jake Locker- Washington

Could have gone as high as #8 to Oakland last year, Locker decided to return to a team with a terrible supporting cast in 2010. His decision to return drew some questions about his commitment and competitiveness, not willing to challenge himself at the next level. His stats this year also hurt his stock as well. 4-20 for 71 yards against Nebraska, 7-14 for 64 yards against Stanford, 10-21 for 68 yards against UCLA, and 5-16 for 56 in a rematch with Nebraska stand out in a season where he overall completed 55% of his passes for 6.8 YPA, with 17 touchdowns and 9 picks. However, he is one of the few quarterbacks in this class to operate a true West Coast offense and his teammates deserve a lot of the blame. He’s a project, but he has upside and should still go in the first round. A strong performance against the best of the best this in the Senior Bowl will go a long way in assuring Locker goes in the first. He could go as high as #7 to San Francisco or #10 to Washington.

QB Greg McElroy- Alabama

Quarterbacked a very successful run first offense with Alabama for the last two years, including a national championship in 2009. He did exactly what you want out of a quarterback supported by that kind of defense and running game, not make mistakes, with only 9 picks in 2 years. He’s got a decent arm and solid mechanics out of a Pro Style offense, but looks to be a mid round backup type prospect at the moment.

QB Christian Ponder- Florida State

A 3 year starter with solid short accuracy, but not a strong arm. He’s got good mobility, but not breakway speed and won’t be able to switch positions. He doesn’t appear to have a good enough arm to be a starter in the NFL, but he’s a strong leader and can be a solid backup, at best a Ryan Fitzpatrick type starter. I expect him to go 4^th round or later.

QB Ricky Stanzi- Iowa

An interesting sleeper, supported by a great supporting cast which did mask some of his flaws, but he’s got an NFL arm and experienced in a Pro Bowl offense. Only threw 6 picks all last year, 4 in his last 5 games, and, in my opinion, outplayed potential first round pick Blaine Gabbert in the Insight Bowl. This game could be the opportunity he needs to show himself as a potential day 2 prospect.

RB Anthony Allen- Georgia Tech

Played the fullback role in Georgia Tech’s run heavy offense, leading the way with 1316 yards on 240 carries and 7 scores. He also averaged 9.7 YPC in 2009 alongside Jonathan Dwyer. As with Dwyer last year, there are some concerns about the weird style offense Allen played in and how he will convert to the NFL. There are also some issues about his speed and 40 time. He’s not a true bruiser at 6-0 229, though he does have good size. He’ll need to run at least a low 4.6 to be considered as a day 2 prospect.

RB Charles Clay- Tulsa

Essentially plays the fullback role in Tulsa’s explosive offense, Clay is a great pass catcher with 189 catches for 2044 yards and 28 touchdowns in 4 years, he can also pick up the extra yard at 6-3 235. He has a role in the NFL and it may be as an H-Back.

RB Noel Devine- West Virginia

Much hyped out of high school, Devine rushed for  4317 yards and 29 touchdowns in 4 years at West Virginia, backing up Steve Slaton for a year before having two monster 1200+ yard years in 2008 and 2009 before struggling this year, a trend on this offense. He could run in the 4.3s and he has good hands, but at 170-175 pounds, he’d be one of the smallest guys in the league he might fall into day 3 as purely a gimmicky weapon type player and kick returner.

RB Roy Helu Jr.- Nebraska

He’ll need to post a good 40 time at 6-0 220 to be considered before the 5^th round. He has decent size, but is projected to run in the 4.6s or even 4.7s. Rushed for 1000+ yards in back to back years, though he was very inconsistent this year. 307 of his 1245 yards came in one game, a very impressive performance against Missouri, but the clunker type performances are heard to ignore. He rushed for less than 60 yards in 6 of his 13 performances and only broke 100 4 times.

RB Kendall Hunter- Oklahoma State

One of the nation’s leading rushers with 1548 yards and 16 touchdowns, his weigh in could decide whether or not he is a day 2 prospect. He’s listed at 197, but could be anywhere from 188-202. There are very few lead backs (even Chris Johnson) who weigh less than 200 pounds. He doesn’t break a lot of tackles and doesn’t have elite breakaway speed or a good 40 time. He also had a 1500+ yard season in 2008 before getting benched in 2009.

RB Derrick Locke- Kentucky

Though undersized, Locke has good speed and explosion and burst at 5-9 190. He doesn’t have the size to be a lead back, but with 1793 rushing yards and 16 rushing touchdowns on 361 carries in the last 2 seasons combined, he runs well and he also is a good pass catcher. He should be drafted late as a complimentary back.

RB DeMarco Murray- Oklahoma

Murray split carries with Chris Brown in 2008 on the Oklahoma team that made the National Championship game, rushing for 1002 yards and 14 scores on 179 carries, but struggled mightily as the lead back in 2009 averaging 4.1 YPC over 171 carries. He got bigger and healthier this offseason and broke the 1000+ yard mark once again, rushing for 1214 yards on 181 carries and 15 touchdowns. He might not be the best in between the tackle runner, but with 143 catches in the last 3 years, he’s a solid 3^rd down back at the very least. He’s got good size at 6-1 210 as well and could sneak into day 2.

RB Bilal Powell- Louisville

Doesn’t do any one thing amazingly, doesn’t have great speed at 6-1 215 or break a lot of tackles and runs sort of upright. However, he rushed for 1405 yards this year at more than 6 yards per. He’s a one year wonder statistically, but he could still be drafted late day 2 or early day 3. He catches passes efairly well with 30 in his last 2 years. 

RB Da’Rel Scott- Maryland

Had his best year as a sophmore in 2008 with 1133 yards and 8 scores on 209 carries, but hasn’t been nearly that good since. If he wants to get drafted, he’ll have to prove he’s just as good now as he was then. 

RB Daniel Thomas- Kansas State

If Thomas can run a good 40, he could be the 3^rd back off the board, somewhere in the late 2^nd round. He’s got good size at 6-2 228, but not good enough to still be a high draft pick with a mid 4.6 or late 4.6 40. Thomas bruised through smaller defenders for 2850 yards and 30 touchdowns in the last 2 years and also caught 52 balls. He should be a lead back at the next level.

FB Owen Marecic- Stanford

Known as the guy who once scored an offense touchdown and a defensive touchdown within 13 seconds of each other. Marecic played both fullback and linebacker in college and is listed as a fullback for this game. He is, at the very least, a great versatility character guy and special teamer and should be a mid day 3 pick. He has scored 12 offensive touchdowns in the last 2 years and also caught 17 balls in 2 years showing good hands at 6-1 244. He also had two picks as a middle linebacker this year.

WR Vincent Brown- San Diego State

A big time producer and tough to bring down in the open field, the small school Brown caught 69 passes for 1352 yards and 10 touchdowns. He’s got good size at 6-1 195 and should run a solid 40, but needs to play well in this game to prove he can compete with the big boys. 

WR Edmund Gates- Abilene Christian

A small school prospect looking to establish himself with the big boys, Gates stands at 6-1 200.

WR Leonard Hankerson- Miami

The athletic Hankerson broke out this year as a senior for Miami with 72 catches for 1156 yards and 13 touchdowns. He’s got solid athleticism and reliable hands and should be a solid #2 type receiver in the league. He could sneak into the 2^nd round, but it’s probably a 3^rd or even 4^th round prospect.

WR Dwayne Harris- East Carolina

He caught 101 passes for 1123 yards and 10 touchdowns and also gained 104 yards on 16 carries. He also is a talented kick returner and he’s bigger than your average all purpose player at 6-0 205. He could be a legitimate day 2 pick out of East Carolina.

WR Jerrel Jernigan- Troy

Someone I’m looking forward to watching, Jernigan should be a solid slot receiver at the next level. He’s got solid route running ability and great athleticism. In the last 3 years, he’s caught 232 balls for 2741 yards and 15 touchdowns and also rushed for 852 yards and 5 touchdowns on 118 carries. He also returned a kick return and a punt return for touchdown last year. Size is his only issue at 5-9 190.

WR Ronald Johnson- USC

A much hyped prospect coming out of high school and into USC, he’s got great natural athleticism and should run a low 4.4 or high 4.3 40 at 6-1 185, but, even in his best season this year, he failed to establish himself as an elite receiver. He caught 64 balls for 692 yards and 8 touchdowns. His athleticism and return ability should make him an early day 3 prospect.

WR Jeremy Kerley- TCU

Andy Dalton’s favorite target this year for undefeated TCU, Kerley caught 56 balls and 10 touchdowns, but only managed 575 yards. He’s not a great route runner nor an explosive deep threat so at 5-10 182, he could go undrafted. This is his chance to prove people wrong.

WR Paul Niles- Nebraska

Plagued by foot injuries and unable to build upon 40 catches for 798 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2009. He’s a physical 6-1 220 receiver and a good kick returner, but health will be key for him. He’ll have to show he’s healthy this week if he wants to get drafted before day 3.

WR Austin Pettis- Boise State

The more athletic of the two Boise receivers we will see this week, the 6-3 210 Pettis has caught 134 balls for 1806 yards and 24 touchdowns in the last 2 seasons, but was consistently outperformed by counterpart Titus Young.

WR Greg Salas- Hawaii

The numbers are eye-popping, with 225 catches for 3379 yards and 22 touchdowns in the last two seasons, but he’s the product of a system and a weak schedule. Hawaii throws more than anyone else in the country. He’s barely his team’s leading receiver. A mid 4.6 40 at 6-2 215 isn’t going to cut it either. He could go undrafted.

WR Matt Szczur- Villanova

A jack of all trades, can play running back, wide receiver, punt returner and kick returner, and even center field. He’s signed a 1.5 million dollar contract to play for the Chicago Cubs that any team who drafts him needs to be aware of. He’s an exciting player, but his commitment to football is going to be questioned. Still, I’m looking forward to seeing what he can do against tougher competition. If he’s drafted high enough, it might be enough for him to pick football, but the risk is definitely there. He’s probably a day 3 guy.

WR Courtney Smith- South Alabama

A physically imposing 6-5 230 receiver who dominated the division II level and had a strong 105 yard 2 touchdown game against Division I UC Davis earlier this year. He should be interesting to watch. His size alone could get him drafted. 

WR Titus Young- Boise State

Boise’s “other” receiver, Young doesn’t have Pettis’ size, but at 5-11 170 with a low 4.4 40, he’s a scrappy player and an excellent route runner. Reminds me a lot of Deion Branch, another smaller guy with great hands, a great workout, great quickness in space, and great route running ability. He has 150 catches for 2256 yards and 19 touchdowns in the last two years and could take advantage of a bunch of receiver underclassmen returning to school (Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd, DeVier Posey, Ryan Broyles) to sneak into the 2^nd round.

TE Preston Dial- Alabama

A better blocker than his size would indicate, at 6-3 240, but he’s probably nothing more than an h-back at the next level. He doesn’t have great speed either and his stats weren’t particularly jaw dropping with 25 catches for 264 yards and 3 touchdowns in really his only productive offense year this year. He’s got his work cut out for him and could really benefit from showing he can play special teams.

TE Lance Kendricks- Wisconsin

Next in line of Wisconsin’s factory of undersized tight ends, the 6-4 240 Kendricks should be drafted somewhere around where Travis Beckum and Garrett Graham were drafted, 3^rd-4^th round. Kendricks caught 43 balls for 663 yards and 5 scores this year, but isn’t much of a blocker. If he makes it into the 3^rd round, it’s because of this weak tight end class.

TE Mike McNeill- Nebraska

Another undersized tight end who might have some trouble getting drafted, McNeill caught 81 balls for 1047 yards and 11 touchdowns as a 3 year starter for Nebraska, but his stats dropped off each year, a bad sign.

TE Lee Smith- Marshall

He has the size to be an NFL tight end for sure at 6-6 265, but with only 61 catches for 693 yards and 3 touchdowns in 2 years against weak competition, he hasn’t played up to the potential. Occasionally brilliant though, he should get drafted late on upside. 

TE Luke Stocker- Tennessee

Has the physical tools at 6-6 250 to be a great tight end, but didn’t put it all together in college. He’s caught 68 balls for 806 yards and 7 touchdowns in his last 2 years, and isn’t as good of a blocker as his size should suggest. He’ll probably be a day 3 prospect on upside.

TE DJ Williams- Arkansas

Should be the 2^nd tight end off the board in this week tight end class, after underclassman Kyle Rudolph. Williams lacks elite height at 6-2, but he’s got good size at 6-2 250 and is an underrated blocker. He caught 144 balls for 1737 yards and 10 touchdowns in three years as a starter. He’s probably a day 2 prospect. 

OT Gabe Carimi- Wisconsin

The best pure right tackle prospect in a while. He doesn’t have the athleticism or footwork to play left tackle in the NFL, but still could be drafted in the first round as a right tackle or even a guard because he is a monstrous run blocker. He anchored a Wisconsin line that was one of if not the best in college football and got better as the year went on. He is 6-7 330 and uses it well in run blocking and he’s not completely lost in pass protection.

OT Anthony Costanzo- Boston College

My top offensive tackle prospect, with the ability to line up at left tackle or right tackle. He moves his feet well and his extremely athletic and polished. If he measures in at 300+ pounds, he should come off the board somewhere between 15-40.

OT Brandon Fusco- Slippery Rock

Slippery Rock? What the hell? Who would name a college Slippery Rock (no offense to any potential readers from Slippery Rock university, though I doubt there are that many). I’ll admit I had never heard of this kid until I saw his name on the roster. ESPN lists him at 6-4 299, which is a bit undersized, but I’m looking forward to seeing what he can do with the big boys.

OT Marcus Gilbert- Florida

Strictly a right tackle at the next level, but he’s a solid mauling run blocker who should be a day 2 pick.

OT Kevin Kowalski- Toledo

A small school prospect with a smaller frame at 6-4 295, he probably won’t be drafted, but he could prove me wrong. 

OT DeMarcus Love- Arkansas

A raw swing tackle with the ability to play left tackle in addition to right. His athleticism at 6-5 315 is very impressive, but he needs to be more fundamentally sound and consistent. He should be a day 2 prospect.

OT Jason Pinkston- Pittsburgh

A fairly standard day 3 right tackle, with lacking athleticism and inconsistent technique. He’s an accomplished starter on Pittsburgh’s line. 

OT Derek Sherrod- Mississippi State

Should be one of the first tackles off the board in this weak tackle class. Naturally a left tackle, but can play right. Very fundamentally sound and good size at 6-6 310.

OT Nate Solder- Colorado

He could be a combine wonder. A former blocking tight end who has put on 30-35 pounds in the past 2-3 years to become a 6-9 315 offensive tackle, yet can still run in the 4.8s or 4.9s. He is still raw and his balance is a bit off, but he’s an accomplished college tackle and could go in the first round.

OT Danny Watkins- Baylor

Lacks natural athleticism, but is a solid run blocking tackle at 6-4 315. He could be a late day 2 pick, but should be a day 3 pick.

OT Lee Ziemba- Auburn

Lacks elite strength, but has good mobility and should come off the board in early day 3. Should be a right tackle at the next level, but has the athleticism to become a left tackle. He can also play guard. A very accomplished college player.

G Clint Boling- Georgia

Played both tackle positions as well as right guard for Georgia, making 49 career starts and 38 in a row. A smart offensive lineman that can play anywhere, but is probably a guard in the NFL because he lacks strong footwork and mobility. Likely a late day 2 earlier 3 pick.

G James Brewer- Indiana

A massive run blocking offensive lineman with huge upside at 6-8 335 and the ability to play both guard positions and right tackle. He isn’t a very mobile guy and he’s very raw, but he can be coached up and could sneak into day 2.

G James Carpenter- Alabama

Played both guard and right tackle for Alabama and was a bruising offensive lineman, but he lacks elite athleticism and isn’t particularly big at 6-5 300. He’ll probably be a day 3 pick as a guard.

G Rodney Hudson- Florida State

Can’t play all schemes because of his size at 6-2 282 and if he were to bulk up, he could mess up his game, but he has been Florida State’s best offensive lineman since his freshman year. He’s smart, can play some center, and has great footwork. He should be a day 2 prospect. His weigh in will be key.

G Benjamin Ilajana- Villanova

A small school prospect with the potential to make a big impression at the Senior Bowl, he can play guard or tackle and is likely a 2^nd round pick with the ability to sneak into the first. He showed up big time in the FCS playoffs for Villanova and anchored a line that was regarded as one of the best in the FCS.

G John Moffitt- Wisconsin

The other major pro prospect on Wisconsin’s strong run blocking offensive line, Moffitt looks like a day 2 prospect and should be one of the first guards off the board. He’s 6-5 323 with solid mobility and amazing strength.

G Mike Pouncey- Florida

The consensus top interior line prospect, Pouncey’s twin brother Maurkice went 18^th overall last year and made the Pro Bowl as a rookie center. Pouncey could have a similar future. He can play guard, center and some right tackle, but is primarily a guard. He’s a massive run blocker who I think can be better than his brother.

G Steve Schilling- Michigan

A fairly standard guard prospect who should come off the board in mid to late round 3 as a depth guard.

C Kristofer O’Dowd- USC

Should be one of the top center prospects off the board, O’Dowd has been a much hyped center prospect since he chose USC. He fits a zone blocking scheme well, but can play any. He’s undersized at 6-5 300, but can play some guard.

C Jake Kirkpatrick- TCU

One of the nations best centers for the last few years, Kirkpatrick should be an early day 3 pick and one of the first centers off the board. 

DE Allen Bailey- Miami

For the first 3 years he was at Miami, Bailey was the workout wonder who never lived up to it on the field. He was 6-4 275, capable of playing inside and out, and ran a mid 4.6 40 with great bench press numbers. Before his junior year, he put on about 10-15 pounds and started living up to his measurables. He had 7 sacks in 2009 playing mostly in the middle at tackle and 7 sacks in 2010 playing mostly end. Rumors say he can still ran in the 4.7s at 6-4 288. He has great versatility and would be best off as a 3-4 end. He should come off the board in the first round, but he could slide because of how deep this defensive line class is. Nonetheless, he’s a top 40 pick with a huge upside.

DE Adrian Clayborn- Iowa

Clayborn really should have come out last year, coming off a 11 sack year at 6-3 288, capable of playing 4-3 end, 4-3 tackle, and 3-4 end, he would have been a top 15 pick. Since then, he’s assaulted a cab driver and only managed 4.5 sacks this season, though still providing a solid force against the run. He’s still likely a first round pick, but this is a deep class and he could slide.

DE Ryan Kerrigan- Purdue

Essentially this year’s Brandon Graham, Kerrigan has 25.5 sacks in the last 2 seasons, but lack of elite athleticism and short arms will keep him from being a top 10 pick. If he has a strong Senior Bowl like Graham did last year, he could still go top 15 like Graham did (#13) as the 3^rd 4-3 end off the board, behind DaQuan Bowers and Robert Quinn. He’s a tenacious player who lives in the backfield. He can also play 3-4 rush linebacker.

DE Sam Acho- Texas

Acho looks like a day 2 pick. He has all the measurables, but has yet to put together a strong season and he’s very inconsistent on tape. He’s never had more than 8 sacks in a season and didn’t show up in some games. He doesn’t play the run well at all. He can also play 3-4 rush linebacker.

DE Pierre Allen- Nebraska

A decently athletic defensive lineman who has never had more than 5 sacks in a season. He could be drafted late, but probably won’t be.

DE Christian Ballard- Iowa

Has all the physical tools to be a 1^st round pick and plays like a 1^st rounder at times, but his inconsistency will drop him into day 2. At 6-5 297, he’s best off as a 3-4 end, but can play 4-3 tackle.

DE Jeremy Beal- Oklahoma

Has 27.5 sacks in his last 3 seasons, but lacks elite athleticism. At 6-3 267, he’s an ideal 4-3 end and could sneak into the end of the 1^st round thanks to this draft class’ lack of true 4-3 ends. At worst, he’s a 2^nd rounder. It remains to be seen whether he can play the 4-3 or not.

DE Cameron Jordan- California

A natural fit as a 3-4 end because of his size, 6-4 285, and because he played in one of college football’s lone 3-4 defenses. He has 12.5 sacks in the last 2 years and has good versatility but could fall to day 2 because of this class’ depth. If he can outperform guys like Bailey and Clayborn, he could become a first round or even a top 20 pick.

DE Parnell McPhee- Mississippi State

Put on about 15-20 pounds after his junior season and it didn’t pay off, cutting his sacks from 5.5 to 2. He’s still solid against the run and can play both a 3-4 and a 4-3, but he’s probably a day 3 pick.

DE Brooks Reed- Arizona

Reed has 17 sacks in his last 3 seasons and very good athleticism. He’s regarded as best fit in a 3-4 as a rush linebacker, but he’s got the size to play on the line in the NFL. His 40 time and other measurables should be solid.

DT Jarvis Jenkins- Clemson

Has all the physical tools to succeed in the league, but he can be streaky. A monster against the run at times, but not much of a pass rusher. He’s best off as a 4-3 tackle, but can play 3-4 end and if he were a little bigger, he’d be a perfect 3-4 nose tackle.

DT Drake Nevis- LSU

The 6-1 291 only fits the 4-3, but he provides a good inside pass rush with 7 sacks this season and isn’t a liability against the run. He reminds me of a less hyped version of Glenn Dorsey. He should go in the first round, but there are so few 4-3 teams that he could slip.

DT Phil Taylor- Baylor

This year’s Terrence Cody without the hype, a massive 6-4 355 pounder, he’ll have to keep his weight in check and stay in shape, but he can be a monster against the run and a day 2 pick in a weak nose tackle class.

DT Cedric Thornton- Central Arkansas

Another small school prospect, projects well as a 4-3 under tackle with his quickness, but lacks size at 6-3 290. Could also play a 3-4 as an end. 

DT Sione Fua- Stanford

A stud run stopper in the middle of Stanford’s defense with good size at 6-2 310. He doesn’t have prototypical nose tackle size, but he play the 3-4 nose tackle and the nose tackle in a 4-3 as well. He doesn’t offer much of a pass rush, but his physicality in a weak nose tackle class could make him a day 2 pick.

DT Chris Neild- West Virginia

Strictly a 4-3 tackle, the 6-2 300 Neild is solid at the point of attack and strong against the run. He doesn’t offer much of a pass rush, but could be drafted late day 3. 

DT Ian Williams- Notre Dame

At 6-2 308, he is a strong enough run stopper to play the nose in both the 4-3 and the 3-4, which will make his intriguing as a depth guy on day 3. A big thing for him, in addition to showing pass rushing moves, will be proving the health of his recently injured knee.

OLB Mason Foster- Washington

Should come off the board in the 2^nd round. Best off as a strong side linebacker at 6-2 240, Foster has 347 tackles, 6 forced fumbles, 10 sacks, and 4 picks in 3 years as a starter. A well regarded locker room guy and not a liability in coverage.

OLB Mark Herzlich- Boston College

The feel good story of the Senior Bowl, Herzlich was a 1^st round prospect heading into 2009 as a junior when he was diagnosed with a rare form of cancer in his leg. He is cancer free and played well in 2010, but not quite the same. If he can show he’s all the way back at the Senior Bowl, he could be a day 2 prospect. He had 110 tackles, 2 sacks, 6 picks, and 2 pick sixes in 2008 and 65 tackles and 4 picks in 2010. He has good size at 6-4 240 and would be best on the strong side of a 4-3 in the NFL. At worse, he’s a tremendous locker room guy.

OLB Ross Homan- Ohio State

Awful measurables with a 4.7 40 at 6-0 228, but he gets things done. He has 248 tackles, 4 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, and 6 picks in his last 3 years, but he’s also 24 in March as a 5^th year senior. He should come off the board early day 3.

OLB Greg Jones- Michigan State

He’s reportedly put on the 10 points he needed to and we’ll see at his weigh in. if he weighs in near 240, he could sneak into the first. He can play any linebacker position in a 4-3 and the middle in a 3-4. He has 385 tackles and 12 sacks in his last 3 years and he has great mobility and ball awareness. He reminds me of Jerod Mayo.

OLB Colin McCarthy- Miami

A prototypical 4-3 linebacker who had a great senior season with 120 tackles. He made great strides in coverage, a weakness of his after his junior year. He could be a day 2 pick because of his versatility.

OLB Von Miller- Texas A&M

May have had an even better season this year than in 2009 when he had 17 sacks. He developed more pass rushing moves, proved himself to be more than a 1 year wonder, played hard through injury early in the season, got healthy and had 9 sacks in his last 6 and 11 total, and he improved in coverage so the 6-3 240 linebacker can play the 4-3 as well as the 3-4. He’s best as a 3-4 rush linebacker and could be the first 3-4 rush linebacker off the board. He could go as high as #11 to Houston. How he fares in coverage as a linebacker full time in the Senior Bowl, after playing end all year, could determine his stock.

OLB Lawrence Wilson- Connecticut

A stat sheet filler all 4 years at UConn, Wilson had 438 career tackles, including 3 years of 100+, 9 sacks, 4 forced fumbled, 5 picks, and 3 pick sixes. He doesn’t have the speed to make up for his 6-1 228 frame, but he could be a day 2 pick as a weakside linebacker. He’s fairly solid in coverage. 

MLB Josh Bynes- Auburn

An underrated middle linebacker prospect that could slip all the way to day 3. He was the leader of Auburn’s defense and he’s excellent in coverage. He lacks size, but his mobility makes up for it and he’s a perfect fit for a cover 2. Not a great fit for a 3-4 at 6-2 233, but he’s a playmaker in the air and on the ground. Had a 100 tackle season in 2009 and has 7 picks in 3 years. He deflected 5 passes for National Champion Auburn this season.

MLB Nate Irving- NC State

Missed all of 2009 with injury, but bounced back with 89 tackles, 7 sacks, and 3 forced fumbles this year. The injury history is an issue, but he should be a late day 2 early day 3 pick in a week middle linebacker class.

MLB Kelvin Sheppard- LSU

Back to back 100+ tackle seasons for LSU with 4 sacks this year, but he doesn’t quite have the mobility to move outside. His 40 time won’t be great and he struggles in coverage. He also tends to be inconsistent. He could be a day 2 prospect, but might drop to day 3.

MLB Quan Sturdivant- North Carolina

Character issues hurt his stock. He’s been arrested for marijuana and was suspended 5 games this year for an NCAA violation. He hasn’t lived up to his hype or his strong sophmore year yet either. He could fall to day 3.

MLB Chris White- Mississippi State

Prototypical 3-4 middle linebacker size at 6-4 245, White, a late bloomer, had a fantasic senior season with 105 tackles and 6 sacks and with all the 3-4 teams needing depth, he could sneak into day 2.

MLB KJ Wright- Mississippi State

Bigger than White at 6-4 255, but also significantly slower and less productive. Might go undrafted even with the need for 3-4 linebackers.

MLB Casey Matthews- Oregon

Can’t go wrong with a Matthews. Matthews is brother to Clay Matthews III, a defensive player of the year candidate for the Green Bay Packers, son of Clay Matthews II and grandson over Clay Matthews Sr. both of whom are accomplished NFL players. His uncle Bruce Matthews is a hall of fame Center and his cousin Kevin also is in the NFL. This Matthews had 73 tackles, 3 picks, and 3 sacks this year and came up huge in a losing effort in the National Championship against Auburn. He should be a day 2 pick.

CB Curtis Brown- Texas

Didn’t live up to his measurables as a senior and actually played slightly worse than in his junior year, costing him a shot at the first round. He’s still a day 2 guy even in a deep cornerback class.

CB Jalil Brown- Colorado

At 6-1 210, he’s bigger than most corners, but he’s still athletic enough and plays bump and run well. He’s a day 2 pick.

CB Kendric Burney- North Carolina

Character issues and size issues, 5-9 185, could drop him into day 3 despite 11 picks and 3 pick sixes in his career. He actually matches up well man-to-man with smaller receivers, but can’t handle bigger ones.

CB Rashard Carmichael- Virginia Tech

Should be a solid depth corner in the NFL. With corners in heavy demand, he could sneak into day 2. He has 10 picks in the last 2 years.

CB Ras-I Dowling- Virginia

May have hurt himself by going back to school, once a consensus top 20 pick, Dowling could slip into the 2^nd round this year. He has good size and is solid in coverage and generally is better than former teammate Chris Cook who went in the 2^nd round last year, but he could be drafted later than him. His flaws in coverage were exposed this season.

CB Marcus Gilchrist- Clemson

Could get drafted as a depth corner, but I don’t expect much of him. Maybe he’ll prove me wrong this week.

CB Jaiquawn Jarrett- Temple

A small school cornerback with 9 picks in 4 years, he has a lot to prove this week. 

CB Joe Lefeged- Rutgers

A Thorpe award semifinalist, Lefeged was known was big hits as a cornerback at Rutgers. At 6-1 205 with lacking speed and issues in coverage, he’s a tweener and could have shown trouble being drafted before round 5. 

CB Chris Marsh- Utah State

An intriguing small school prospect who I am really looking forward to watching live. He projects as a day 3 prospect with upside. He has good size at 6-1 195 and dominating weaker competition.

CB Johnny Patrick- Louisville

Shot up into day 2 consideration with a strong senior year in which he picked off 5 passes and had one pick six. He’s got good measurables, athleticism, and technique and could go as early as the 2nd round. 

CB Chris Rucker- Michigan State

A talented corner/safety hybrid with a bad legal past who will have to start proving people wrong with his play on the field.

CB Shareece Wright- USC

He has a checkered academic past, but after finally getting on the field for a full season as starter this year, he really impressed. He could move up to day 2 range.

CB DeMarcus Van Dyke- Miami

Never really lived up to the hype, but could be a late round flier guy. He’s physically talented, but never put it all together for a consistent stretch of time.

S Ahmad Black- Florida

A playmaker with 13 picks in 3 years, but his size leaves him in a pickel. Very few 5-9 185 safeties make it in the NFL and he doesn’t have the speed or ability in coverage to play corner. He might just be a depth defensive back and could fall to late day 3.

S Quinton Carter- Oklahoma

Really come into his own as a safety in the last 2 years with 175 tackles and 8 picks in his last 2 years, but at 6-1 205 he’s a bit of a tweener. He’s not athletic enough to play free safety or big enough to play strong safety. Someone could take a chance on him day 2 though.

S Eric Hagg- Nebraska

Part of Nebraska’s amazing defense and secondary, Hagg is purely a safety at the next level. He can play free safety at 6-2 210 and is strong in coverage. He thing he could be an interesting day 3 sleeper. 

S Zac Etheridge- Auburn

Another feel good story, Etheridge could be drafted after once suffered a severe neck injury. He was able to play again and did a decent job playing centerfield for Auburn’s defense this year, picking 3 passes. He could be drafted day 3 as depth.

S DeAndre McDaniel- Clemson

Had an amazing 8 pick junior year in 2009, but decided to return. His flaws were really exposed this year as he really struggled in coverage. He should still be a day 2 pick on upside.

S Da’Norris Searcy- North Carolina

One of many Tarheels suspended for something stupid this past September, Searcy came back and showed some late round upside with 4 picks. He could get drafted.

LS Danny Aiken- Virginia

He’s a long snapper…I don’t know.

LS Christian Yount- UCLA

See above.

K Kai Forbath- UCLA

Nailed 72 of 83 for his first 3 years as UCLA’s kicker, but missed 5 of 18 this season. He should still be drafted.

K Josh Jasper- LSU

One of the best kickers in the country, Jasper nailed 28 of 34 with 2 of 3 from 50.

P Alex Henery- Nebraska

Averaged 43.2 per punt as a senior and also nailed 68 of 76 as a place kicker.

P Chas Henry- Florida

Averaged a nation leading 45.1 yards per punt as a senior and had an impressive 43.0 average for his career.

 

Spreads/Lines on betonline.com

Last week overall: 11-5

Last week ATS: 8-8 (+220/+4 units)

Overall picks: 42-22 (.656)

ATS Picks: 33-29-2 (+1300/+17 units)

Survivor picks: 4-0 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB)

Upset picks: 5-9 (-160)

I didn’t go +27 units for the week like week 3 or anything, but it was my 2^nd straight week making money and allowed me to add to my total. I went 2-1 with my 3 highest picks, including nailing my 5 unit pick. I split my 4 3 unit picks, so really that 5 unit pick (New England) was the difference. I didn’t particularly post a high record, 8-8, but I did enough to finish up 4 units for the week, on the strong of my 5 unit pick. I also finished 11-5 straight up for the week, bringing my winning percentage for the season to .656. I split a pair of small upset picks, as well, though I do have some bigger upset picks for this week.

Buffalo Bills 27 Philadelphia Eagles 24 Upset Pick (+120)

Pick against spread: Buffalo +3 (-125) 4 units (+400)

Buffalo can’t seem to get any respect from Vegas. Meanwhile, Philadelphia can’t seem to lose it. Well, maybe it’s not Vegas not giving them Bills respect or disrespecting the Eagles, but rather the public doing either of those things and Vegas capitalizing. The money is on Philadelphia this week, but it’s close.

Buffalo had some respect last week as road favorites in Cincinnati, but they were flat after beating the Patriots for the first time in 16 tries the week before as big home underdogs. Now they come back home and are underdogs to the 1-3 Eagles.

Meanwhile, the Eagles have been 9 point home favorites in each of the past two weeks, first to the Giants after an ugly win on Monday Night Football, then to the 49ers. They lost both of those games straight up and now they’re 3 point favorites in Buffalo. What that’s saying is that this line would be -9 in Philadelphia, basically saying Buffalo no better or even worse than San Francisco or the Giants (remember, they didn’t look good coming into that game). We’re getting tremendous line value here.

Besides, road favorites who lose straight up are 40-28 ATS as dogs the next week since 2002. They were good enough to be road favorites a week ago, so they’re obviously a good team, but Vegas still has them as underdogs. There’s value in betting on teams in this situation, especially when the opponent is coming off a loss as a home favorite (5-1 ATS).

Philadelphia, meanwhile, could be caught looking forward to Washington next week. Favorites are 43-67 ATS the week before being divisional dogs since 2008. Will Philadelphia be a dog in Washington next week? Maybe, especially if they lose here and head into 3-1 Washington at 1-4. Either way, you know that game against Washington is going to be huge for Philadelphia, so this game might not mean as much to them as it does to Buffalo, who has something to prove once more after losing to the lowly Bengals and returning home to be home dogs to a 1-3 “dream team.”

The reasons this isn’t a 5 unit pick are 2. One, this feels like a trap line. Sometimes when something seems too good to be true, it normally is. Philadelphia might feel they need this win to safe their season at 1-3 and Andy Reid is 14-9 ATS off a loss as a home favorite since he took over in 1999 (this trend failed last week). I still like Buffalo, but only for 4 units.

Two final notes: first, the Trent Cole and Jason Peters injuries are going to be huge. Neither are expected to play in this one. Both are huge parts of this team, but the line doesn’t seem to take that into account. Second, Philadelphia has the worst turnover ratio in the NFC, 2nd worst in the league (-6) behind Pittsburgh. Last week they played San Francisco, who is tied with Detroit for the best turnover ratio in the league (+8). This week they play Buffalo, who is first in the AFC, 2nd in the league with a -7 turnover ratio. Turnovers swing games and they aren’t as completely unpredictable as people would have you believe.

New Orleans Saints 34 Carolina Panthers 24

Pick against spread: New Orleans -6 (-115) 2 units (-230)

We should just start calling Cam Newton the king of backdoor covers. As Bill Simmons says, there’s no one he’d rather have at quarterback down two scores needing a “meaningless” score for a backdoor cover. Cammy Cam came through last week as 7 point underdogs in Chicago. Can he come through again here at home as 6 point home dogs against New Orleans? Maybe, but there are some trends working against him.

New Orleans is in their 2^nd straight road game. Teams in their 2^nd straight road game are 141-100 ATS since 2008, 35-19 ATS after covering in their first road game. Meanwhile, Carolina is home divisional dogs, a situation teams are actually just 50-62 ATS in since 2008. Breaking that down further, teams are 20-32 ATS as home divisional dogs the week before being road divisional dogs (Atlanta next week). They might be more focused on having to go to Atlanta than on the Saints, though I’m not 100% sure I agree that will be in play here.

I’m much more focused on the Saints being in their 2^nd straight road game after covering as favorites in their first. This is a good New Orleans team that can beat up on Carolina’s poor secondary. Newton will have some yardage time scores, but I still like New Orleans’ chances to cover here given that the spread isn’t 7+. You need to worry more about someone like Newton when the line is 7+.

Oakland Raiders 23 Houston Texans 20 Upset Pick (+200)

Pick against spread: Oakland +6 (-115) 3 units (+300)

Andre Johnson hasn’t been ruled out for this game, but he’s very unlikely to go. That’s huge, obviously. I don’t know that this line properly reflects that. Besides, Houston could be in a flat situation. They just beat Pittsburgh at home last week and head to Baltimore next week. In the Gary Kubiak era, the Texans are 12-19 ATS off of a win and, for whatever reason, teams are a mere 17-35 ATS off of a win against Pittsburgh since 2002. For the record, that’s the worst winning percentage after beating any team in that span.

As for that upcoming Baltimore game, favorites before a game in which they will be a dog of 3+ in are 106-150 ATS since 2008. The logic is simple. You have an opponent who is as good or better than you coming up. You won’t be as focused for an inferior opponent, especially one who is coming off of a loss (56-84 ATS). Houston heads to Baltimore next week. Vegas had Houston at -4 at home over Pittsburgh, which says they’re 1 point better than Pittsburgh. Since Baltimore beat Pittsburgh, Houston is likely going to be at least +3 at Baltimore next week.

Besides, Houston doesn’t seem to have stopped shooting themselves in the foot. They blew a lead against New Orleans week 3 and should have blown out Pittsburgh last week. They had 9 penalties, 8 in the first half, and dominated the first half time of possession battle 21-9. Pittsburgh didn’t even get the ball until 4 minutes left in the first because Houston ran a 115 yard drive (thanks to penalties) to score on the opening possession of the game. I don’t trust a team that constantly shoots themselves in the foot when the trends are all going against them, especially without their best player.

Update: I’m putting a unit on Oakland to pull off the upset +200, in the wake of Al Davis’ death. I think they have a huge game in the memory of their owner and that pushes a close game in their favor against a Houston team that struggles in close games historically. 

Indianapolis Colts 20 Kansas City Chiefs 13

Pick against spread: Indianapolis -1.5 (-120) 2 units (-240)

Can you win MVP if you don’t play a down? Peyton Manning has led the Colts to 10+ wins every year since 2002, and 12+ in every season since 2002 except last year. He gets hurt and now the Colts are 0-4. However, they have their best chance to win a game here against Kansas City. Kansas City is 1-3, with one home win against the 0-4 Vikings.

I think people are overreacting to the Colts. They’re not going to be a 1 or 2 win team like some are predicting. They have offensive playmakers and the best 4-3 bookend defensive ends in the league. They had a tough first 4 games with Houston (3-1), Cleveland (2-2), Pittsburgh (2-2), Tampa Bay (3-1). They hung within a touchdown of Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Tampa Bay and Curtis Painter looked decent against Tampa Bay despite making his first career start on the road on Monday Night. He’ll be even better with another week here at home against the lowly Chiefs.

This line says the Chiefs are 1.5 points better than the Colts. I disagree with this. Besides, 0-4 teams are 23-11 ATS since 2000. Teams who are 0-4 or worse are 10-5 ATS as favorites since 2002. The Colts are a veteran squad playing for pride here. They should be able to eke out a win here. Curtis Painter is getting better at quarterback and the Colts are devalued because of their record, despite a tough schedule.

Besides, the Chiefs aren’t a good road team. Winning at home is one thing, but I don’t think they can get a road win here. Including last week, this team is 8-2 straight up at home in the regular season, whereas they are 3-7 straight up on the home in the regular season. This line is small enough for something like that to matter.

 

Cincinnati Bengals 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 9 Upset Pick (+120) 5 units (+600)

Pick against spread: Cincinnati +1.5 (+100) 0 units

This is exactly the type of situation Jacksonville struggles in, especially lately. Since 2008, Jacksonville is 10-23 ATS against non-divisional opponents and 4-11 ATS as home favorites. They’re also 4-9 ATS as favorites before a game in which they will be underdogs in that same time span, since 2008. They head to Pittsburgh next week so they’ll be more focused on that than lowly Cincinnati.

Meanwhile, Cincinnati is 18-11 ATS as an underdog off a win since Marvin Lewis took over, including 9-2 in that situation in their last 11 instances (since 2008). As an underdog in general, Cincinnati is 20-13 ATS since 2008.

Besides, I don’t really agree with this line. This line says these two teams are essentially equal. I think Cincinnati is the better team right now and I’m very happy to bet against a terrible team like Jacksonville as favorites, regardless of how bad they’ve been in this situation since 2008. As long as Cincinnati is not flat off of that comeback win against Buffalo (road dogs coming off a 1-3 point home win as home dogs are 11-26 ATS since 2002), Cincinnati should be fine here.

I’m not ignoring that trend, but I think the other trends are more powerful and more specific. While the league as a whole struggles in a situation like this, there are many situations Cincinnati is in now that they specifically have done well in under Marvin Lewis, as well as many situations Jacksonville is in now that they typically struggle in. Besides, the Bengals did cover against in this exact situation in 2009 against Baltimore. And for the record, the Bengals are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 after a 3 point or fewer win.

I’m doing something different here this week. I like Cincinnati to win straight up so instead of putting 4 units on the spread line +1.5 (+100) and one straight up on the money line +120, I’m just going to put 5 on the money line. The only way this can backfire is if Jacksonville wins by 1, but that doesn’t happen very often. Roughly 4% of games are decided by 1 point, so sticking with straight probability, the odds that Jacksonville wins by 1 here are 2% (and 2% than Cincinnati does the same). I’m not paying the extra 20 dollars (per 100) for insurance against a something that happens about 1 time in 50. For the future, I will do this when betting the underdog on a line of 1.5 or less.

Arizona Cardinals 23 Minnesota Vikings 20 Upset Pick (+120) 2 units (-200)

Pick against spread: Arizona +1.5 (+105) 0 units

This was a tough one for me. On one hand, Minnesota is 0-4 and playing for pride. 0-4 teams are 23-11 ATS since 2000, even more surprisingly, they are 10-5 as favorites in that stretch. On the other hand, they could be looking forward to Chicago more than they are focused for this game. Favorites before a game in which they are going to be underdogs are 43-67 ATS since 2008. When they are going to be underdogs of 3+, they are 36-56 ATS and when they are going to be underdogs of 7+, they are 9-19 ATS. Minnesota goes to Chicago next week and will be at least +3, probably +7 in that game.

So what’s the tiebreaker here? The line. Is Arizona as bad as or almost as bad as Minnesota (-1.5 line with -125)? I don’t agree with that. Minnesota is 0-4 and has blown big leads in 3 of their first 4 games. The Cardinals are 1-3, but their 3 losses were in Seattle (tough place to play), on the East Coast at 1 PM ET at the now 3-1 Redskins, and a close loss to the now 3-1 Giants. Neither team is very good, but the Cardinals are better so I’m taking them. Like the Cincinnati/Jacksonville game, I’m putting two units on the money line instead of one on the money line +120 and one on the spread 1.5 +105. I don’t need protection from a 1 point Minnesota win (2% likelihood).

New York Giants 34 Seattle Seahawks 13 Survivor Pick (4-0, NE, PIT, BAL, GB)

Pick against spread: NY Giants -9.5 (-110) 4 units (-440)

I normally don’t like betting heavily on double digit favorites (9.5 is close), but there’s just too many trends to ignore this week. Seattle absolutely sucks on the road. They’re 13-32 ATS since 2006 on the road, 1-7 ATS as 10+ point underdogs (again 9.5 is close). They’ve lost all 8 of those games, by an average of 20.8 points per game. There’s no way I’m betting on Seattle on the road, especially on the East Coast at a 1 PM ET start.

Besides, I think we’re getting excellent line value here. Seattle was double touchdown underdogs in Pittsburgh week 2. Pittsburgh was coming off a 28 point loss against Baltimore. Are the Giants really 5 points worse than the Steelers were week 2? The Giants are 3-1 right now and are continuing their early season dominance. They’ve always played well in the first half of the season under Tom Coughlin. In fact, they’re 36-19 ATS in weeks 1-8 since Coughlin took over in 2004. I don’t think the Giants should have any problem beating the Seahawks by 10+. They’re also my survivor pick of the week (I’ve used New England at Miami, Pittsburgh vs. Seattle, Baltimore at St. Louis, and Green Bay vs. Denver already).

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Tennessee Titans 19

Pick against spread: Tennessee +4 (-110) 1 unit (-110)

This was the toughest one for me. The Steelers are playing bad football right now and I had them overrated coming into the season, but it seems like the oddsmakers are catching up. I was expecting them to be something like -7 here at home for Tennessee, but they are -4. I don’t think there’s any value with that anymore because I don’t know how good Tennessee is.

Tennessee is on a 3 game winning streak, but those 3 wins were a flat Baltimore off a win against Pittsburgh, Denver who could have beaten them had they kicked a chip field goal instead of gone for it on 4th and goal with the lead, and Cleveland. Chris Johnson is not running well and without Kenny Britt, Hasselbeck doesn’t have a lot to work with in the receiving corps. Their defense doesn’t generate a consistent pass rush either so Big Ben won’t be under fire quite as much this week.

I still want to take Tennessee, but only for a unit. There’s no value in this line and Pittsburgh has looked really good in their only home game, albeit against Seattle. I just don’t want to bet Pittsburgh as favorites of more than 3 against a team in Tennessee that might actually be pretty good. Two trends, home favorites coming off of a loss as road underdogs are 63-75 ATS since 2008. Pittsburgh is 1-3 ATS in this situation under Mike Tomlin.

Secondly, Tennessee is in their 2nd straight road game as dogs after covering in the first. Teams in this situation are 98-69 ATS since 2002. They’re also going in their bye week. Teams in general do better going into their bye week, but teams in their 2nd straight road game as dogs after covering in the first are 9-4 ATS heading into a bye.

Also, injuries could be a factor here. Big Ben will probably play banged up. James Harrison is out with a broken face. Rashard Mendenhall has a hamstring problem and will probably be a game time decision and he’d be limited if he could play. However, I worry about a proud, well coached veteran team in Pittsburgh in a game that they might see as must win.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 San Francisco 49ers 17 Upset Pick (+115) 2 units (-200)

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +1.5 (+100) 0 units

There are conflicting situations here. On one hand, Tampa Bay has New Orleans next week, while San Francisco is coming off of a close (1-3) road win as an underdog. Both situations are situations teams would be flat in as favorites, so before the line was released I just decided I was going to take the points. In this case, that’s Tampa Bay.

San Francisco won as 9 point underdogs on the road last week by 3 or fewer. That’s a tough spot returning home to be favorites. Teams are just 23-40 ATS in this situation since 2002, 21-33 ATS when they were dogs are 3+, and 4-9 ATS as dogs of 7+, which San Francisco was. This even applies when the team is favorites of less than 3. Teams in this situation are 5-8 ATS off of a close win as a road favorite. For that reason, I’m taking Tampa Bay.

I also like we’re getting points with Tampa Bay on the road. Tampa Bay was 6-2 on the road last year, as opposed to 4-4 at home, and they’re already 1-0 on the road this year (albeit in Minnesota). Besides, Tampa Bay is a team who beats up on bad teams. They only have 1 loss to a team with a .500 record or worse in the past 2 seasons. San Francisco is 3-1 now, but they could finish this season 8-8 or so, so this is sort of in play. On top of this, this line says these two are about equal, which I don’t agree with, and that’s not taking into account how good Tampa Bay is on the road.

The reason I’m not making a big play on Tampa Bay is because they play New Orleans next week. Favorites are 43-67 ATS since 2008 the week before they are divisional dogs. I know Tampa Bay is not favorites here, but that New Orleans game is going to be on their mind. Road dogs are 46-46 ATS since 2008 in that situation, which isn’t a trend, but road dogs of 3+ are 43-40 ATS in that situation, which means road dogs of less than 3 are 3-6 ATS before a game in which they are divisional dogs.

Trace this back to 2002, road dogs in general are 122-159 in this situation, but 112-139 when they’re dogs of 3+, which means road dogs of less than 3 are 10-20 ATS before a divisional games since 2002. This makes sense. Road dogs of less than 3 are considered the better team by Vegas. Tampa Bay probably sees San Francisco as an inferior opponent and won’t give 100% before New Orleans next week.

Also, assuming you can do math, you can probably see that betting against teams (favorites or dogs) before games in which they are going to be divisional dogs is pretty lucrative. Since 2008, teams are 123-151 ATS in this situation and 349-451 ATS since 2002. Basically, there’s a lot of conflicting stuff. Both teams could be down this week, but I’m going with Tampa Bay because they’re a good road team and I think the better team.

Like with Arizona/Minnesota and Jacksonville/Cincinnati, I’m betting two on the money line here instead of betting one on the money line and one on the spread. I’ve already explained my logic here. 

San Diego Chargers 27 Denver Broncos 20

Pick against spread: San Diego -4.5 (+100) 1 unit (+100)

This was a tough one. Both teams are heading into their byes and teams tend to do better when they’re heading into their bye. Favorites are 91-73 ATS going into their bye since 2002. Underdogs are 92-80 in that situation in that same time period. Teams tend to be more focused heading into their bye than most, but that nullifies here because both teams are heading into their bye.

I was honestly hoping San Diego would be favorites of 7+ this week. Favorites of 7+ are a whopping 41-15 ATS heading into a bye in the regular season. Good teams are focused heading into their bye and almost always cover. However, I guess Vegas didn’t agree that San Diego should have been 7 point favorites here and I can understand why. San Diego just isn’t that good early in the season.

I’m putting a small bet on San Diego for three reasons. One, favorites are slightly better than underdogs heading into byes. Two, divisional home dogs are 50-62 ATS since 2008. That’s not the strongest trend, but this isn’t a big bet either. Finally, Denver’s a mess right now. San Diego can definitely do something similar to what Green Bay did last week to Denver if they don’t shoot themselves in the foot. Even if they do, I can’t Denver keeping this within 4.

New England Patriots 34 New York Jets 17

Pick against spread: New England -9 (-110) 1 unit (+0)

Jets. Pats. Again. If history is any indication, the Patriots are going to win here. Since Rex Ryan took over the Jets in 2009, the Jets are 2-3 straight up against the Patriots, but neither team has won 2 in a row in that stretch. These two coaches are the best in the business in revenge type situations. Both coaches make excellent adjustments, learn from their mistakes well, and are especially great at motivating their teams in revenge games. New York won in the playoffs last year. Now it’s New England’s turn.

Besides, no one has beaten the Patriots at home in the regular season in over 3 years. I know the Jets did it in the playoffs last year, but this is the regular season now and I don’t think this is the same Jets team. The Patriots have scored 30+ in 12 straight regular season games. I don’t think the Jets can score that many to keep up with them, especially not with how their offense looked last week. The Jets did hold them to 21 in the playoffs last year, in a 28-21 win, but that was the combination of luck and the right personnel. That doesn’t happen very often.

Well the Jets get the same breaks they did against New England last year? Maybe, but the truth is, it’s not the same personnel. This Jets defense isn’t as good as it was last year. I don’t think they can hold New England under 30, especially since Belichick’s the one with the revenge factor here now.

The line here is 9. Can the Jets keep this a 31-24 or 34-27 game? I think they can. The Patriots defense isn’t great so Sanchez won’t be nearly as bad as he was last week, but do I really want to bet on that after what he did last week? Nick Mangold either won’t play or won’t be 100% here, which really hurts the Jets as they go up against Vince Wilfork.

Besides, in addition to neither team having ever won back-to-back in this series since Rex Ryan took over, neither team has covered back-to-back in this series since Rex Ryan took over. Lastly, the Patriots are still going to be motivated after that loss to Buffalo. Tom Brady doesn’t forget very easily. The smart money is on this being a blowout, but I’m only putting 1 unit on it.

Atlanta Falcons 31 Green Bay Packers 28 Upset Pick (+220)

Pick against spread: Atlanta +6 (-110) 4 units (-440)

I guess you could say this is the rubber match. After the Falcons won by a field goal over the Packers in Atlanta in the regular season last year, the Packers responded with a 48-21 upset win over the Falcons in Atlanta in the NFC Semis, en route to their Super Bowl win. The Falcons didn’t look great on the road in the past two weeks, losing in Tampa Bay and then barely winning by 2 over the lowly Seahawks last week. However, now they’re back home, where Matt Ryan is 17-8 ATS in his career (4-0 as a home dog).

I think Atlanta is being undervalued here. They haven’t looked good in their past 2, but they never look good on the road. They’re a mere 2-2 this season and barely beat Seattle, but they’ve only played one home game and they won it in a similar situation, home dogs against Eagles. As long as we’re getting more than a field goal with Atlanta, I’m taking it. Matt Ryan has covered in 4 of his last 5 instances as a dog. Besides, this line says Green Bay is 9 points better than Atlanta. I don’t agree with that, especially considering that Atlanta should get more than 3 points for playing in Atlanta.

Besides, since 2008, the Falcons are 17-8 ATS off of a road game, 9-2 ATS when they failed to cover. In general, they are 15-4 ATS off a game in which they didn’t cover. I was going to put 5 units on Atlanta here, until I thought twice and decided, maybe betting 5 units against Aaron Rodgers isn’t a good idea. 4 units it is. I really have a good feeling about Atlanta here. This is a big revenge game for them and this game means more to them than the Green Bay as the 2-2 Falcons are fighting for respect and potentially for their season.

Detroit Lions 31 Chicago Bears 17

Pick against spread: Detroit -6 (-105) 2 units

This is Detroit’s first Monday Night game in over a decade. This game is huge for the team. You know they circled this one on the schedule before the season. They’re going to be giving 110% to win here. There’s a small trend that goes along with this. Monday Night home favorites are 32-25 ATS since 2002 off of a win. That’s not a strong trend or anything, but common sense tells you that Detroit is going to be giving 110% this week.

Chicago should be too. Green Bay and Detroit are at 4-0. They’re at 2-2. If they lose here, they could be as many as 3 games back of 2 different teams. They’re season could be on the line here. However, I’m taking the favorites for a small bet. I really like Detroit to get to 5-0 and cover here on MNF. Besides, I love getting Detroit’s defensive line against Chicago’s miserable offensive line.

LV Hilton Super Contest Picks (for anyone playing): Atlanta +6, Cincinnati +2.5, Buffalo +2.5, NY Giants -9.5, Oakland +5.5 

 

 

Updated 4/7/12 

This is not a mock draft update. This is my “should” mock draft. This is what I feel each pick should be, based off of my Big Board, my views on team needs, and my general draft strategy. 

Note: This is one of my favorite things to do every year. Not just because I get to pretend to be the GM of all 32 teams based on all of the tape I watch, but because most commenters don’t understand what I’m doing and say things like “team A would never draft player B. ur stupid” or “player A at slot B?” or players A not in the top X, wut a retard.” This is not what I think will happen. This is what I would do. This link is what I think will happen.

 

1. Indianapolis Colts- QB Andrew Luck (Stanford)

This is pretty obvious. Their top quarterback right now is Drew Stanton and Andrew Luck is the only prospect I have given a perfect 100 score to in 5 years of scoring (previous high: Ndamukong Suh 99).

2. Washington Redskins- QB Robert Griffin (Baylor)

Andrew Luck might be a once in a decade prospect, but Griffin would be my top quarterback 9 years out of 10. Before Luck and Griffin, the highest grade I had ever given a quarterback was Matt Stafford: 97. The Redskins traded a lot for him, but there’s a very good chance it’ll pay off.

3. Minnesota Vikings- OT Matt Kalil (USC)

Some years Matt Kalil might even be the top prospect. He has a 97 grade which would have made him the 2^nd highest ranked prospect last year (Patrick Peterson: 98) and would have tied for the highest ranked prospect in 2009 (Matt Stafford: 97). He’s the 3^rd best offensive tackle I’ve graded (Russell Okung and Jake Long). He plays the 2^nd most position and the position of biggest need for the Vikings as they build around Christian Ponder. In this draft class, there’s a big drop off from the top 3 prospects to #4 on.

4. Cleveland Browns- RB Trent Richardson (Alabama)

Normally I do not suggest using a top 10 pick on a running back. In fact, since 2008 I have never given a running back a top 10 grade. However, Richardson is the best running back since Adrian Peterson and the Browns have a massive need at running back. He’s the 4^th best player in a class devoid of elite talent after the top 3 and since I’m not in love with any of the remaining quarterbacks, I’ll take Richardson here.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- CB Morris Claiborne (LSU)

This pick has to be defense. The Buccaneers’ defense was one of the worst of all time last season in terms of yards per play allowed and they spent most of their offseason resources on the offense, signing Vincent Jackson and Carl Nicks. With the exception of overpaying Eric Wright, they haven’t done anything for the defense. Whitney Mercilus grades out as my top defensive player, but he doesn’t fill a need after they used their first 2 picks on defensive ends last offseason. Morris Claiborne is the 2^nd ranked defensive player and fills a major need at cornerback.

6. St. Louis Rams- WR Justin Blackmon (Oklahoma State)

The Rams absolutely need to take Justin Blackmon in this spot. Luke Kuechly, Robert Quinn, and Whitney Mercilus all have higher grades, but they don’t really have major needs at any of those positions, especially not in comparison to wide receiver.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars- DE Whitney Mercilus (Illinois)

You won’t see Whitney Mercilus atop many defensive end boards, but he’s atop mine. He had an incredibly productive and consistent season last year as a junior. He only has one year of production, but he’s only been in the starting lineup for 1 year. If he had returned for his senior season and continued to produce, he probably would have been a top 3 prospect next season on my board. Instead, he’s a top 5 prospect in a year devoid of elite talent outside of the top 3.

He’s an excellent athlete and an elite pass rusher who had 22.5 tackles for loss and 16 sacks last season, along with 9 forced fumbles. He had a tackle for loss in every game except one and a sack in every game except two. He had a great game against Mike Adams of Ohio State and Ricky Wagner of Wisconsin, two potential future first round picks (Adams in 2012 and Wagner in 2013). He’s also solid against the run. He’s a great fit for the Jaguars, who have a huge need at defensive end.

8. Miami Dolphins- WR Michael Floyd (Notre Dame)

Michael Floyd is my top available prospect other than Quinton Coples and Luke Kuechly. Kuechly doesn’t fill a need for the Dolphins at linebacker and Coples wouldn’t be a good fit in their hybrid defense because he couldn’t play rush linebacker and because they don’t have a need at 3-4 defensive end. Brandon Marshall is gone and since I’m not in love with any of the available quarterbacks, I’ll take a wide receiver for whoever the quarterback of the future is.

I am Adam McFadden, owner of Da Bears and Bulls Blog, http://www.dabearsandbulls.com. I’ve been a huge Bears fan since birth. I’m a law student at the University of Illinois.

Email: dabearsandbulls@gmail.com

Twitter: @dabearsandbulls

 

Quarterback

Stanford

6-4 234

Draft board overall prospect rank: #1

Draft board overall quarterback rank: #1

Overall rating: 100 (once in a decade prospect)

40 time: 4.67

Games watched: Stanford/Arizona, USC/Stanford, Stanford/Washington, Stanford/Oregon,  California/Stanford

Positives

·         Football and non-football smart

·         Calls most of his team’s plays in the huddle

·         3.5 GPA at Stanford

·         Pro Style experience

·         High character

·         Natural leader – teammate’s follow and gravitate to him

·         Humble, likable, interviews well, has all the intangibles

·         Well coached

·         Can make every throw

·         Above average arm strength

·         Elite accuracy

·         3 year starter

·         2 time Heisman runner up

·         2 years of elite statistical production (70.7%/9.0 YPA/32:8, 71.3%/8.7 YPA/37:10)

·         Winner (23-3 record in last two seasons)

·         Won and succeeded with and without Jim Harbaugh- survived coaching change

·         Highly competitive, returned for his season senior to win a National title

·         Survived the microscope and scrutiny he was put under after returning to Stanford

·         Elite record and statistical production with little offensive supporting cast

·         Frequently had to throw to covered guys, able to throw guys open

·         Puts the ball in the perfect spot with excellent consistency

·         Great pocket presence

·         Mature footwork

·         Above average mobility and athleticism

·         Can throw on the run and under pressure

·         Smart decision maker

·         Good field vision, goes through his progressions

·         Not afraid to throw it away when nothing is open

·         NFL bloodlines

·         Typical NFL build (6-4 234)

·         Has all the tools

·         Consistent

·         Can handle adversity and win ugly (USC game)

Negatives

·         Supported by an excellent offensive line

·         Never took a lot of hits

·         Rarely under a lot of pressure

·         Occasionally flustered when progression is sped up

·         He’s got everything you want, but what happens when he gets punched in the mouth?

·         Not elite arm strength

·         Pac-12 competition was not elite

·         Led a conservative offense that ran the ball a lot, took some of the pressure off him

·         7 interceptions in his last 6 games, 9 in last 9

·         Intercepted short too often – sets up pick sixes

·         Leaves ball high sometimes

·         No defining game

·         No defining win

Comparison: More athletic Eli Manning

The Andrew Luck comparison was tough because there isn’t one quarterback in the NFL he is similar to. The Peyton Manning comparisons make some sense because of how cerebral he is and because he has unconventional charisma. Personality and intelligence wise, the Peyton Manning comparisons are good, but I think those are a bit lofty. He’s also much more athletic than Manning. Because of his athleticism, he’s often compared to another former Stanford quarterback, John Elway. However, I feel those too are lofty.

I picked Eli Manning because I think it’s a more down to earth comparison. In a lot of ways, Eli is very similar to Peyton Manning. Andrew Luck’s unconventional charisma and goofy “aw shucks” leadership style is very Eli Manning like, as is his competitiveness and ability to lead comebacks. Both Eli Manning and Andrew Luck come into the league with high expectations and comparisons to Peyton Manning. Both are #1 overall picks and I think both will fall short of the Peyton Manning comparisons. However, if Andrew Luck has 2 rings before he’s 30 like Eli Manning, I doubt he’ll care. I see Andrew Luck’s career taking a similar path to Eli’s. He’ll take a lot of scrutiny because of the hype, and fall short, but still have an excellent career.

He’s not perfect. No quarterback is. You can find something wrong with every quarterback prospect, even ones who go #1. Cam Newton last year was extremely raw. Sam Bradford was coming out of a system that bloats stats and coming off a separated shoulder. Matt Stafford needed to improve decision making. JaMarcus Russell had character issues. Alex Smith had a weak level of competition. Same with David Carr. Eli Manning was never a dominant college quarterback. The list goes on and on.

Luck is better than all of those quarterbacks. I think he’s got the cleanest scouting report of any quarterback since Peyton Manning. He can get a bit frazzled under pressure in the pocket and he has been spoiled by this offensive line. He leaves balls high sometimes. He’s also been spoiled by a good running game, though he’s proven, that can get it done even when the running game isn’t going. If his defense plays a better game, he wins this one even with all of his receivers making mistakes.

However, he’s one of the smartest college quarterbacks you’ll ever see. He makes all the adjustments at the line of scrimmage. He has decision making that quarterbacks his age just don’t have. He’s had a ton of success with crap at wide receiver. His pocket presence is also rare for his age. He can get frazzled, but he does know when to flee the pocket and he throws on the run extremely well. He’s also got all the intangibles. He’s a fierce competitor and a great leader.

He doesn’t have the strongest arm, but he can make all the throws and he’s extremely accurate. He handles adversity with amazing poise. He hasn’t had the strongest level of competition, but he’s played well against Oregon and USC. He’s not perfect, but as I said before, he has the cleanest scouting report of any quarterback since Peyton Manning.

  

 

 

WR Donald Driver UP

Driver was in the lineup and looked healthy in his first preseason game this season, after speculation that he could miss time in the regular season. He’s still a 35 year old coming off of knee surgery on both knees so he won’t be player, but I’d feel a lot more comfortable with him as my WR4 now than before.

WR James Jones DOWN

With Driver seemingly healthy, Jones’ chances of breaking into the Packers explosive starting lineup this season got a whole lot slimmer. He’s no longer a fantasy sleeper of mine unless Driver reinjures himself.

WR Terrell Owens UP

Owens has definitely appeared the Batman to Ocho’s Robin, with 10 targets for 6 catches and 41 yards, as opposed to Ocho’s 3 targets for one 4 yard reception. I’m calling Owens the #1 guy in Cincinnati this year, though he’ll have plenty of other receivers to compete with.

WR Chad Ochocinco DOWN

Ochocinco has looked downright horrible in the preseason so far, looking significantly older and slower than Owens. There’s no doubt that Owens is the better receiver, at least now. That may change in a few weeks.

 

WR Steve Smith UP

Any speculation that Smith and his broken arm would not be ready for the season or not in game shape for the season were destroyed when Smith was surprisingly activated from the PUP list a couple weeks before anyone expected him too. Smith was amazing in the 4 games that he and Matt Moore both started, with 398 yards and 3 scores, despite leaving midway through the 4^th game with his first broken arm of the last 9 months. Smith is surprisingly underrated this year.

QB Brett Favre UP

Favre is coming back so it’s safe to call him my 7^th ranked quarterback, which he would have been had there been no threat of retirement. I’m convinced Favre will play until someone doesn’t want him anymore, skipping training camp every time.

WR Percy Harvin DOWN

After passing out at training camp, it’s become painfully obvious that Harvin is nowhere near ready for live NFL action. He remains a major health risk for this season and I can think of plenty of better things to do with a mid round pick than use it on Harvin. It is sad though, because he’s got plenty of talent.