Quarterback
Fordham
6-5 241
40 time: 4.85
Draft board overall prospect rank: #131
Draft board overall quarterback rank: #9
Overall rating: 63*
4/3/10: John Skelton is shooting up draft boards after his Combine and Pro Day as he finally got a chance to show the world, coming out of tiny program Fordham, that he can throw the ball like an NFL quarterback. He’s got a massive cannon for an arm and a huge frame to 6-5 241 that draws him comparisons to Ben Roethlisberger and Joe Flacco. He isn’t as athletic as Big Ben or as mature of a leader as Flacco, but the arm strength is definitely there. His production at Fordham was pretty good, but he played mostly out of the shotgun and he didn’t face a tough level of competition. He doesn’t have good pocket mobility or read blitzes very well, but I like how set his feet are when he throws. He has great deep ball accuracy, but need to improve his short and mid accuracy as he does tend to overthrow guys. His reads and his leadership maturity need to improve as well. Despite being the best quarterback, by far, in his league, he didn’t win a lot being a fairly .500 winner in his career. The fact that he didn’t dominate despite his obvious physical gifts is a bit concerning. He looked amazing throwing at his Pro Day and he has shown many flashes of brilliance at Fordham in his career, but he hasn’t put it all together yet. Teams are reportedly giving him a 3rd or 4th round grade based on his upside alone and I will do something similar because I can see him being a starting quarterback in the NFL someday.
NFL Comparison: Kerry Collins
*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here
Kelly Gregg Chiefs
I was really surprised when the Ravens cut Gregg, who was only owed 3.5 million next year and can still be a competent nose tackle in this league. He’s 35 this season so it’s important this was only a one year deal, but they got him very cheap and he can be a competent one or two year stopgap to rookie Jerrell Powe.
Grade: A
Larry Asante Scout
Safety
Nebraska
6-0 212
40 time: 4.63
Draft board overall prospect rank: NR
Draft board offensive tackle rank: NR
Overall rating: 55*
3/29/10: I am not a huge fan of Taylor Mays, but I think hands down Larry Asante is the most overrated safety in this draft class, as hard as it is for a safety to be overrated. He’s a strong hitter, but he doesn’t have amazing size. He really struggles in coverage. His backpedal and instincts are very poor and he lacks good speed, both in backpedal and in recovery. His hands aren’t great and he doesn’t play the ball in the air very often. Unless Taylor Mays, and prospects in the past like Roy Williams, he doesn’t have the natural speed or athleticism to be able to improve in coverage. His upside is not very high. I am not saying his slow just because of his 40 time, but he looked slow on the field last year all the time. I’ll admit, he’s plus against the run and was very plus against the run last year, but because of his size, I am not sure he will be the same in the NFL against bigger ball carriers, ball carriers bigger than him and he’s not an amazing tackler, so that could be an issue as well. At the very best, I think this is a guy who should be drafted as a depth strong safety and a special teamer, but he’ll probably be drafted in the 3rd or 4th round, rather than the 5th where he belongs. I think he’ll probably be a waste of a draft pick for someone.
NFL Comparison: Dawan Landry
*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here
LSU/Florida
Spotlight #1: LSU CB Morris Claiborne
Spotlight #2: Florida DT Jaye Howard
1st quarter
7:10: Jaye Howard is able to get into the backfield on the goal line, but he’s not able to bring down the ball carrier on his first effort. On his second effort, he gets a combined tackle with another defender.
4:37: Claiborne explosive on a combined tackle for loss. He hasn’t been thrown on today yet.
3:51: Claiborne has a run go to his side, and he’s pushed out of the way for a big gain by the speedy Chris Rainey.
2:15: Claiborne is finally thrown on, quarterback goes deep against him and its way overthrown. Claiborne had good position on the receiver anyway. Nice job.
1:08: Howard gets completely outmuscled. He’s supposed to be the nose tackle for Florida, but he’s having major trouble tonight with LSU’s physical offensive line.
2nd quarter
10:45: Howard outmuscled again. He’s occasionally getting double teamed, but he’s been getting dominated all night.
0:00: Claiborne has only been targeted once this half and it was an overthrow and a good coverage. Maybe they’ll throw on him more in the 2nd half.
3rd quarter
9:55: Claiborne thrown on, leaves a guy wide open, but the throw is bad.
6:04: Howard with an off sides penalty. He’s been pulled from the game for the time being. He’s having an awful game.
0:40: Claiborne shoves a guy out of bounds while running a route, Claiborne stumbles doing so and the receiver, Andre DuBose, runs straight downfield for a touchdown, no penalty on DuBose because he was forced out. This is just a stupid play by Claiborne.
0:36: Claiborne with a mere 14 yard return on the kickoff.
0:31: Howard is back in.
4th quarter
12:23: Morris Claiborne could be the first cornerback off the board in the 2012 NFL Draft, but I’m not sure if he’s even the best cornerback on LSU’s defense. True sophomore Tyrann Mathieu with yet another impressive play, this time a pick. He’s undersized, 5-9 175, but there’s no question he’s one of the best defensive backs in the nation at the age of 19.
9:00: Another talented LSU defensive back, Brandon Taylor has a pass deflection here. He also has a pick and a few nice run plays. He’ll be spotlighted at a later date.
2:06: I haven’t said a lot about Jaye Howard because he’s sucked and gotten benched for a bit. However, Howard is in on a tackle here.
0:00: Jaye Howard is the nose tackle in Florida’s 3-4, but he just got completely overpowered by LSU’s physical offensive line. He sucked tonight and was even benched after a penalty for a few series. He made very few plays tonight and didn’t take on multiple blockers well like he was supposed to. His stock has to be falling after this game and as a guy who was already a day 3 prospect, he could fall into the 6th or 7th round or later if he keeps this up.
As for Morris Claiborne, he made one stupid play that allowed a touchdown, but he played well regardless. However, Florida has so many struggles at quarterback that I don’t know if this was a fair test for Claiborne. The top 3 cornerbacks in this class as Stephon Gilmore, Claiborne, and Dre Kirkpatrick, in no particular order and I’ve spotlighted all 3 but against weak tests. I’m going to make an effort to watch all 3 again, though not spotlighting them, against teams with good quarterbacks. LSU plays Tennessee next week and Tennessee’s quarterback Jim Bray is great. That will be a better test.
Matt Flynn Seahawks
Is Matt Flynn good? I don’t know. He could be Kevin Kolb. He could be Matt Schaub. Flynn has looked excellent in 2 career starts with the Packers, but that was with Green Bay’s weapons around him, not to mention against not so tough defenses in New England and Detroit. It was also 2 starts and Flynn was thought so little of that he went all the way in the 7th round in 2008. Yes, he led LSU to a National Championship, but Jordan Jefferson was a game away from doing the same.
However, is Matt Flynn better than Tarvaris Jackson? Probably. The Seahawks were not in a position to grab a quarterback in the first round of the draft unless they traded up to grab Ryan Tannehill, who isn’t a whole lot less of a crapshoot than Flynn. They probably would have had to settle for Kirk Cousins, best case scenario, in the 2nd round. They didn’t risk a ton of money (10 million guaranteed, 26 million max over 3 years) and this was a risk they almost had to take given the state of their franchise.
Grade: B
Mike Iupati Scout
Guard
Idaho
6-5 331
40 time: 5.26
Draft board overall prospect rank: #30
Draft board guard rank: #1
Overall rating: 83*
4/6/10: Mike Iupati is one of the most talked about guard prospects in a long time, drawing premature comparisons to Larry Allen, who is by far the best guard to play the game of football in the last 20 years. He is as much of a first round lock as any guard can be and I’ve seen him mocked as high as #13 to the Niners. I think the hype around him is overly ridiculous. He’s a very high upside raw prospect, but this not a high ready to contribute from week 1 like most think. He is a mauling blocker and uses his weight extremely well and he moves his feet amazingly for his size, but his technique is very raw and he was very inconsistent against less than stellar competition. He struggled in pass protection against the extremely quick Geno Atkins in the Senior Bowl. However, he has had moments of sheer dominance, entire quarters where he has just taken guys out of the game completely. He locks onto a guy and he’s just completely dominant. He can take on nose tackles and still shut them down one on one. He finishes his blocks well and seals off well. However, he is still raw and needs to work on consistency. His motor runs hot and cold. He lacks elite footwork and handwork. He is still a borderline first round prospect and a first round lock, with his elite athleticism, his ability to shut a defensive lineman down one on one and also to move in space well and play a zone scheme even at his size, but he needs to work on consistency. Teams like the Niners, the Steelers at 18, the Texans at 20, the Patriots at 22, the Packers at 23, the Eagles at 24, the Cowboys at 27, and the Vikings at 30 will all have strong interest in him in the bottom half of the 1st and I would be very surprised if he slipped out.
NFL Comparison: Davin Joseph
*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here
Nate Clements Bengals
The Bengals needed another cornerback with #2 cornerback Johnathan Joseph going to Houston. Clements was being paid like a #1 cornerback in San Francisco, so naturally he underachieved and was cut. However, in Cincinnati, he’ll be paid like a #2 cornerback and he’ll have Leon Hall opposite him, so he’ll probably play better. He’s older, but this is only a 2 year deal, worth 10.5 million with 6 million in guarantees, which sounds about right.
Grade: A
2011 Should Mock
Updated 4/21/11
This is not a mock draft update. This is my “should” mock draft. This is what I feel each pick should be, based off of my Big Board, my views on team needs, and my general draft strategy.
1. Carolina Panthers- WR AJ Green (Georgia)
Green is my #2 ranked prospect, but I put him here over Patrick Peterson because he fills a bigger need. Their offense scored 4.6 points per game fewer than any other team in the league. I’m not ready to give up on Jimmy Clausen. Plenty of players have struggled in their rookie year and rebounded, especially ones who had poor supporting casts like Clausen did as rookies. I liked Clausen out of college and I give him a true #1 receiver here who can help him out right away.
2. Denver Broncos- CB Patrick Peterson (LSU)
Peterson is my #1 overall prospect and fills a need for the Broncos here. Champ Bailey turns 33 this offseason, while Perrish Cox is facing rape charges. Besides, they ranked 30th against the pass last year.
3. Buffalo Bills- 3-4 DE Marcell Dareus (Alabama)
Nick Fairley, Julio Jones, and Robert Quinn are all ranked higher on my board than Dareus, but I like Dareus in a 3-4 more than Fairley, Jones doesn’t fill a bit need, and I worry about drafting Quinn with the 3rd pick as an end and converting him into a linebacker. That’s a risky proposition. Dareus will help their 32nd ranked run defense and add to a pass rush that managed a mere 27 sacks last year.
4. Cincinnati Bengals- DE Robert Quinn (North Carolina)
Fairley is ranked higher, but doesn’t fill a need. Quinn does as they can’t count on Antawn Odom, coming off of 2 straight season ending injuries, to stay healthy opposite Carlos Dunlap. Quinn goes before Julio Jones because of his higher positional value.
5. Arizona Cardinals- RLB Von Miller (Texas A&M)
Amukamara fills a need, but Miller has more positional value for a team that desperately needs pass rushers. Both Joey Porter and Clark Haggans are over 34 and there isn’t much behind either of them.
6. Cleveland Browns- DT Nick Fairley (Auburn)
Fairley gets off the board here and helps the Browns move to a 4 man line in the 4-3, one which they majorly lack personnel for.
7. San Francisco 49ers- CB Prince Amukamara (Nebraska)
Julio Jones is ranked higher, but Prince Amukamara fills a bigger need for the 49ers, who desperately need to cut the old, overpaid, and injury prone Nate Clements or work out a deal where he comes back at a reduced rate to play free safety.
8. Tennessee Titans- WR Julio Jones (Alabama)
Kenny Britt has character problems. Nate Washington is better in the slot. Randy Moss is done. Damian Williams is still developing. Julio Jones is easily best available at this slot.
9. Dallas Cowboys- 3-4 DE Cameron Jordan (California)
Jordan is best 9th ranked prospect and best available for the Cowboys, who pick 9th. Jordan fills a need as they need another 5 technique on their 3-4 defensive line.
10. Washington Redskins- RLB Justin Houston (Georgia)
Justin Houston is a 3 spot reach on my board, but he fits a 3-4 better than Ryan Kerrigan, as he played in a 3-4 in college. He fills a bigger need than Tyron Smith and he has more positional value than Brandon Harris.
11. Houston Texans- CB Brandon Harris (Miami)
Ryan Kerrigan is ranked higher and fills a need, but again, I worry about him in the 3-4 and using the 11th pick on a guy and trying to switch his position. I reach for my 13th ranked prospect Harris, over Tyron Smith who doesn’t fill a need. Harris will allow them to move Glover Quin to nickelback or free safety and help a secondary that ranked 31st against the pass last year.
12. Minnesota Vikings- OT Tyron Smith (USC)
Smith gets off the board here. He’ll be ready to start at left tackle for the Vikings right around the time that Bryant McKinnie will have to move to right tackle because of age. In the short term, he can move Phil Loadholt to right guard where he belongs.
13. Detroit Lions- OT Anthony Castonzo (Boston College)
Passing on Kerrigan again because of how important protecting Matt Stafford should be to this team. If you have a franchise quarterback, but he can’t stay healthy, you might as well not have a franchise quarterback. Castonzo is an upgrade over Jeff Backus who can move to either right tackle or guard.
14. St. Louis Rams- DE Ryan Kerrigan (Purdue)
Kerrigan gets off the board here and becomes James Hall’s future replacement. Hall had a good year last year, but he turns 34 this offseason so I doubt know how many more of those he has.
15. Miami Dolphins- QB Cam Newton (Auburn)
I have a late first round grade on Newton so I wouldn’t take him much before this, but quarterbacks are worth the reach even when it’s 10 or so spots down your board. I’ve seen enough of Chad Henne. He’s good enough for them to get by until Newton’s ready without getting laughed at, but he’s not a franchise quarterback.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars- DE Aldon Smith (Missouri)
Smith is a 2 spot reach over Akeem Ayers and JJ Watt, but he fills more of a need for this Jaguars team that only managed 26 sacks last year and can’t count on Aaron Kampman’s health in the future.
17. New England Patriots- 3-4 DE JJ Watt (Wisconsin)
In real life, the Patriots wouldn’t take Watt because they refuse to deal with his agent Tom Condon. However, this isn’t real life. Watt is my best available and can be their future at defensive end opposite Ty Warren. Marcus Stroud and Gerard Warren are nothing more than stopgaps.
18. San Diego Chargers- RLB Akeem Ayers (UCLA)
Bowers doesn’t fit this scheme either. Ayers is 2nd best on my board and fills a need at rush linebacker where Larry English has clearly busted. The Chargers, in reality, won’t take a rush linebacker in the first and admit their mistake with English just yet, but again, this is not reality.
19. New York Giants- CB Jimmy Smith (Colorado)
Bowers doesn’t fill a need here and neither do Aldon Smith nor Jonathan Baldwin so I reach a bit and take Jimmy Smith, talented cornerback with character issues who can help shore up a Giants secondary that got absolutely torched by the Packers this year. If they want to make it back to the Super Bowl, they’re going to have to fix their secondary. They can’t count on Aaron Ross anymore.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- CB Ras-I Dowling (Virginia)
End would be the pick if there one even close to being worth this spot, given its high positional value and how big of a need it fills for the Buccaneers, who are averaging 27 sacks a season over the last 2 years. Instead they take Dowling. Aqib Talib is in serious trouble. Ronde Barber only has about a year left. Elbert Mack belongs at nickel. Myron Lewis is still developing and can also play safety.
21. Kansas City Chiefs- WR Jonathan Baldwin (Pittsburgh)
Baldwin is my 18th ranked prospect and a good value at this point. He fills a huge need for a team that had absolutely nothing outside of Dwayne Bowe at receiver last year.
22. Indianapolis Colts- OT Gabe Carimi (Wisconsin)
Offensive tackle is a huge need for them as their poor play was a huge part of the reason why Peyton Manning had his worst season in years last year. Carimi is a natural right tackle, but can play left in a pinch and they really need both positions.
23. Philadelphia Eagles- OLB Greg Jones (Michigan State)
Ernie Sims is a free agent. Stewart Bradley can’t stay healthy. Jamar Chaney is still developing. Moise Fokuo just sucks. They need some new life at linebacker and Jones is a very versatile player.
24. New Orleans Saints- RB Mark Ingram (Alabama)
They can’t count on their current group of running backs to stay healthy and Ingram is a very good value at this point.
25. Seattle Seahawks- RB Mikel Leshoure (Illinois)
Aside from the Marshawn Lynch run against New Orleans, they didn’t do much right on the ground last year. A true 3 down back like Leshoure would change that.
26. Baltimore Ravens- MLB Martez Wilson (Illinois)
Other than an unnecessary running back to Mikel Leshoure, the top two prospect available are linebacker. Greg Jones is the higher ranked player, but Martez Wilson is the better fit for the 3-4.
27. Atlanta Falcons- WR Leonard Hankerson (Miami)
They need a receiver opposite Roddy White, especially one who can stretch the field like Hankerson can. Their longest completion last year was 46 yards. Hankerson is BPA ignoring Leshoure and Greg Jones who don’t fill needs and Adrian Clayborn, who fills a positional need, but doesn’t quite make sense here. Clayborn is not a great pass rusher, which is what they really need to pair with Kroy Biermann.
28. New England Patriots- OT Benjamin Ijalana (Villanova)
Matt Light is a free agent and at 33 in June his best days are behind him. Ijalana gives them a new bookend with Sebastian Vollmer for the future.
29. Chicago Bears- DT Stephen Paea (Oregon State)
Clayborn and Jones don’t make sense positionally, but Paea, my 31st ranked prospect, does. He can be a replacement for Tommie Harris, who struggled last year and was consequently cut.
30. New York Jets- 3-4 DE Cameron Heyward (Ohio State)
Brooks Reed was an option here, but defensive line is a bigger need for them and Heyward is still a solid value at this point.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers- G Marcus Cannon (TCU)
A mild reach for a huge need, Cannon can play inside or outside for this team next year, which is important because they have a lot of free agents up front. Brooks Reed, Ryan Williams, and Titus Young all are higher ranked on my board, but don’t fill needs.
32. Green Bay Packers- RLB Brooks Reed (Arizona)
A mild reach, but Titus Young, and Ryan Williams didn’t fill as big of needs as Brooks Reed, who hopefully could turn out to be what LaMarr Woodley is to James Harrison in Pittsburgh, as Clay Matthews’ pass rushing sidekick, who looks just like him.
2011 Week 7 Picks
Spreads/Lines on betonline.com
Last week overall: 9-4
Last week ATS: 3-9-1 (-2210/-20 units)
Overall picks: 59-31 (.656)
Upset Picks: 1-3 (-115/-2 units)
ATS Picks: 41-45-4 (-1370/-6 units)
Survivor picks: 5-1 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI)
Upset picks: 9-15 (+145/-3 unit)
Recap: I sucked last week. This is a weird year. Experts who are normally making money are losing money this year. I think it’s lockout related, along with the NFL’s bullshit rule changes (kickoff rule, 4 days no practice after a bye week). I’m not really sure what to do about it except hope it turns around for me. I’ve had some good weeks this year, including my best week ever week 3 when made about $2000. Unfortunately, I lost all of that last week. One change I have made is I’m using trends dating back to 2008 instead of 2002 when there’s enough data, so we’ll see if that works.
Also, I lost both of my 5 unit picks after being perfect in that department all season. The Colts were one of my 5 unit picks and they were trailing by 3 with the ball with about 2 minutes left as 7 point underdogs when Pierre Garcon stupidly decided to lateral the ball, which was recovered by Carlos Dunlap for the cover clinching score. That’s a $1050 swing there.
Miami was my other 5 unit pick as 7 point underdogs in New York. Darrelle Revis had a pick six in the red zone on what should have been pass interference. That’s a 10 point swing right there at least. Later, Brandon Marshall randomly fell out of bounds with an easy touchdown in front of him and then dropped another touchdown in the end zone as Miami had to settle for 3. That’s 14 points right there that the Dolphins should have had. They lost 24-6. They should have lost 24-20 and covered. That was an $1100 swing there for me. I would have had $2150 more if stupid shit didn’t happen. Sometimes I hate football.
Plus, it’s not like I got the games completely wrong. I was 9-4 straight up after all. Let’s try to earn that money back. Here we go.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26 Chicago Bears 23
Pick against spread: Tampa Bay -1 (-110) 1 unit (-110)
This is the NFL’s annual stupid London game where they force two teams to fly to another country where they don’t even like football to play in some shitty stadium. This is technically a home game for Tampa Bay, but they’re obviously not at home, which makes it even more stupid. Tampa Bay essentially will be playing 7 home games and 9 road games this year, which, I guess since no one ever goes to Buccaneers’ home games, shouldn’t affect them that much.
I feel like Tampa Bay is the right side here. Aside from that fluke loss in San Francisco, this has been a good team for the past roughly year, since a 38-13 loss to New Orleans week 6 of 2010. They’re 11-6 in that stretch and have only lost by more than a touchdown once (San Francisco). More importantly, they know how to finish games. I like betting against Jay Cutler, who has a fairly poor career ATS record (27-47 ATS), and I like betting against him against a team that knows how to finish games, especially when it’s a pretty even line. Also, Tampa Bay has played in England before for what that’s worth. There are no trends to back me up here and I think this could be a close game, so this is only a 1 unit pick.
Carolina Panthers 23 Washington Redskins 20
Pick against spread: Carolina -2.5 (-110) 1 unit (+100)
Cam Newton is 4-1-1 ATS on the season and thus his career, but this is only his 2nd game as a favorite. He won his first game as a favorite over Jacksonville, bucking Carolina’s 18-28 ATS record since 2002 as a home favorite of 3+. Can he do it again here? Well, he’s got some trends to work against. Since 2010, teams in the 1st of 2 home games are 46-64 ATS. Teams in the 1st of 2 home games as favorites are 19-35 ATS. Carolina has the lowly Vikings coming to town next week, where they will almost definitely be favorites.
Also, both of these teams are coming off of divisional losses as dogs. Since 2008, there have been 18 matchups of 2 teams both coming off a loss divisional loss as dogs. The underdog has covered in 11 of those 18, 9 of 14 since 2009. However, Washington looked terrible last week. Rex Grossman, who had gotten worse in every game to that point, threw 4 picks and was rightfully benched for John Beck. I’m not sure how much of an upgrade John Beck will actually be. This line isn’t higher than 3 so we still have protection against Carolina winning by a field goal. I’m taking the favorite for 1 unit.
Cleveland Browns 20 Seattle Seahawks 16
Pick against spread: Cleveland -3 (+100) 1 unit (+0)
The trends go in Seattle’s favor. Cleveland is a favorite coming off of a loss as an underdog before being an underdog (they go to San Francisco next week). Teams in that situation are 42-66 ATS since 2008. It’s called a sandwich game. Teams are also 7-14 ATS when all 3 of the games in the sandwich are non-divisional. The Browns are also a mere 3-7 ATS as favorite since 2008. Meanwhile, the Seahawks rode a win as double digit underdogs against New York into a bye. Since 1989, only 6 teams have won as dogs of 10+ before a bye (6-40 straight up). Of those 6 teams, 5 covered after the bye.
However, I’m not ready to bet Seattle on the road yet. They looked good there in New York before the bye, but they’re a pitiful 8-20 ATS on the road since 2008. We still get field goal protection with Cleveland, meaning if Seattle can keep this within a field goal, I don’t lose. Given that, I’m taking the favorite for 1 unit.
Detroit Lions 27 Atlanta Falcons 20
Pick against spread: Detroit -3.5 (-110) 2 units (-220)
Detroit is perfect no longer after San Francisco came into Detroit and beat them. Detroit lost last week as favorites and some coaches are really good after losing as a favorite. Jim Schwartz? Well, we’ll call it inconclusive. He’s 0-1 ATS after a loss as a favorite. The Lions don’t have a lot of experience losing as favorites in recent years.
However, I still like Detroit to bounce back here. Atlanta is 1-2 on the road this year, with that one win coming by 2 in Seattle. They also haven’t won back to back games all year. I also think this line is wrong. Detroit is only .5 points better than Atlanta? Huh? Detroit may have lost last week, but they’re still 5-1. Meanwhile, before the Falcons blew out the lowly Panthers, could have easily been 1-4 with that one win coming by 2 over Seattle had Michael Vick not gotten hurt when Philly came to Atlanta. There’s no huge trends here, but I think Detroit is the right side for 2 units.
Denver Broncos 23 Miami Dolphins 12 Upset Pick (+115)
Pick against spread: Denver +1 (-105) 5 units (+500)
The Dolphins absolutely suck. All the angles said the Jets would come out flat last week and they did. The Dolphins still lost by 18. Their defense can’t get any pressure, their defensive backs can’t cover, and their receivers can’t catch anything, assuming quarterback Matt Moore even throws the ball accurately. But other than that, they’re pretty good.
Obviously, I love the idea of getting them as favorites. This line suggests that Denver is only 2 points better than Miami. I find that ridiculous, especially with how much better Denver looked against San Diego after they put in Tim Tebow. Tebow will start here.
The Broncos are also coming off a bye which should help them. Teams coming off of a bye last week were 1-5 straight up, but that’s a little misleading. All 5 of the teams that lost were underdogs, while the one win (Baltimore over Houston), was as a favorite. The five losses were Dallas at New England, Washington at Philadelphia, Miami at New York, Cleveland at Oakland, and St. Louis at Green Bay. Seems like in all 5 of those cases, the better team won. I think Denver is the better team here.
Meanwhile, I expect the Dolphins to be flat this week. Teams are 26-44 ATS since 2002 after a MNF loss of 14+, 8-24 ATS as favorites the next week. The Dolphins are also in a sandwich game situation. They’re favorites here before being dogs (@ NY Giants next week) and after losing as dogs. Teams are 42-66 ATS in this situation since 2008, 16-26 ATS after a divisional loss. Here’s an interesting trend. Since 2002, teams are 2-10 ATS as favorites after losing straight up by 14+ on MNF as dogs, before being dogs the next week.
Finally, I love betting against the Dolphins at home. They’re 1-9 straight up in their last 10 home games and 7-20 ATS at home since Tony Sparano took over in 2008, 1-11 ATS as home favorites. They’re actually a whopping 3-13 ATS as favorites in general in the Tony Sparano era. Besides, this team has quit. I love being able to bet against them as favorites. Give me 5 units on Tebow and company.
San Diego Chargers 23 New York Jets 20
Pick against spread: San Diego -1 (-120) 1 unit (-120)
This was a tough one. The Jets should be riding an emotional high after last week. Teams that a win a divisional MNF game by 14+ are 22-10 ATS in the next week since 2002, but it’s hard to say they looked good on Monday Night. The Dolphins just looked terrible and the Jets didn’t even surpass 300 yards of offense after failing to do the same the week before against New England’s miserable defense. It took them until their 5th drive to even get a first down.
Meanwhile, Philip Rivers is 11-6 ATS in his career as an underdog, but 10-4 ATS as an underdog against anyone other than Tom Brady. He’s not an underdog here, but he’s close to being one as mere 1 point favorites. For the record, Rivers is 2-1 ATS in his career as favorites of 3 or less. However, the Chargers could still be in early season form. They’ve had trouble with Kansas City, Minnesota, Denver, hell even Miami. Taking the early season Chargers as favorites traveling 3 time zones (even though this isn’t a 1 PM start) against a Jets team that could be on an emotional high is scary, but I feel like San Diego is the right side. I’m taking them, but only for 1 unit.
Houston Texans 27 Tennessee Titans 20 Upset Pick (+160)
Pick against spread: Houston +3 (+100) 3 units (+300)
Houston hasn’t looked great in the past 2 weeks, losing to Oakland and Baltimore without Andre Johnson. They’ve also lost Mario Williams on defense for the season, so they’re hardly at 100%. Andre Johnson is not expected back for this game. However, I still like Houston here. I think Tennessee is incredibly overrated. They beat Baltimore week 2 when Baltimore was flat off a huge win against Pittsburgh. Then they beat the lowly Broncos and the lowly Browns and the Steelers put them in their place week 5, destroying them 38-17. This line suggests that Houston and Tennessee are equal. That’s wrong.
On top of that, the Texans are 31-16 ATS all-time after two straight losses. Also, Tennessee is in their first 2 of home games, a situation teams are 46-64 ATS in since 2010. They’re also likely in their first of two home games as favorites, with Indy coming to town next week. Teams in that situation are 19-35 ATS since 2010.
Meanwhile, the Texans are in their 2nd straight road game, a situation teams are 142-104 ATS in since 2008. Teams are 69-42 ATS in their 2nd straight road game as a dog, 46-27 ATS in their 2nd straight road game as a dog after losing as a dog in the first. Gary Kubiak is 6-2 ATS in his straight road game as a dog after a loss. In general, since Kubiak took over in 2006, the Texans are 10-4 ATS in their 2nd straight road game. I’m worried about betting on a banged up team which is why this is not a 4 or 5 unit bet, but I do really like Houston in this situation.
Arizona Cardinals 24 Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Upset Pick (+160)
Pick against spread: Arizona +3.5 (-115) 4 units (-460)
All the Steelers have to do is win by 4? Easy money! Right? Not so fast. Remember, the Cardinals have several former Pittsburgh assistants on their staff. Head coach Ken Whisenhunt is a former Steelers offensive coordinator. Russ Grimm, the Cardinals’ offensive line coach, held the same position with the Steelers. Also, Cardinals defensive coordinator Ray Horton is a former Steelers’ defensive backs coach. They’ll definitely have the inside track as far as preparation goes here.
On top of that, they’ll be more focused than the Steelers. The Cardinals are coming out of a bye, looking to end a long losing streak, a situation teams do well in. Meanwhile, the Steelers play the Patriots next week, looking for big revenge. Favorites before being dogs are 59-73 ATS in 2010, but a mere 10-20 ATS as road favorites, and 6-10 ATS as road favorites after being favorites the week before. Besides, the Steelers have shown struggles against weaker opponents this year. They barely beat Indianapolis and then they took their foot off the gas against Jacksonville last week after getting a big lead early, hanging on to win 17-13.
On top of this, the Steelers struggle on the road as favorites in the Mike Tomlin era. As favorites of 3+ on the road, they’re 7-13 ATS since Tomlin took over in 2007. Conversely, the Cardinals play well as home dogs in the Ken Whisenhunt era, 10-4 ATS in this situation. Finally, I like the line movement here. The line opened at -4, then went to -3.5, then went to -3.5 with extra juice and this is in spite of the fact that the public is betting the Steelers. Vegas wants people to bet on the Steelers.
Oakland Raiders 20 Kansas City Chiefs 14
Pick against spread: Oakland -3.5 (-115) 1 unit (-115)
Jason Campbell is done for the season, but the Raiders have acquired Carson Palmer, who is at least no worse than Campbell. However, there’s a lot of conflicting angles in this game. The Chiefs are in their 2nd straight road game, a situation that normally is lucrative to bet on. However, they’ve had a bye in between. This isn’t a problem as teams in their 2nd straight road game with a bye in between are 7-3 ATS since 2008. The Chiefs are also 22-15 ATS as road dogs since 2006, the same stretch of time in which the Raiders are 2-10 ATS as favorites. Finally, the Raiders are a mere 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games against Kansas City.
However, a weird and specific trend, teams in the 2nd or 3 road games with a bye week in between the 2nd and 3rd are 15-6 ATS since 2002. Oakland is in this situation. Plus, Oakland is on 7 game divisional winning streak. Finally, this line hasn’t moved from -3.5 since Palmer has been acquired so we’re getting excellent line value. I’m making this a one unit pick in favor of the Raiders because I don’t want to bet heavily on a team who just woke their starting quarterback up from retirement, especially since Palmer won’t have even been with the organization for a week. Also, Kansas City does have trends in their favor. I just like the line value is too good to pass on.
Dallas Cowboys 24 St. Louis Rams 23
Pick against spread: St. Louis +13 (-105) 6 units (-630)
Good news and bad news for the Rams here. The good news is they traded for Brandon Lloyd. Lloyd was the league’s leading receiver in 2010 under Head Coach Josh McDaniels, who happens to be the offensive coordinator in St. Louis now. The bad news is that the guy who was supposed to throw Lloyd the ball, Sam Bradford, is expected out with a high ankle sprain. It’s not confirmed that Bradford will be out, but it seems very unlikely he’ll play. Vegas hasn’t even bothered taking this line down, instead letting it jump from 10 to 13 to make up for Bradford’s absence.
I loved this St. Louis +10 before the Bradford injury. Dallas is going to be in a flat spot. This is a sandwich game. They played New England last week and then travel to Philadelphia next week. They’re going to have a very hard time getting up for the lowly 0-5 Rams. Favorites coming off of a loss as underdogs, before being underdogs are 42-66 ATS since 2008, 14-26 ATS before being divisional underdogs. Also, since 2002, favorites of 10+ are just 11-19 before being divisional underdogs. Dallas will be an underdog in Philadelphia next week.
Speaking of the 0-5 Rams, teams that are 0-5 or worse are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 instances as double digit underdogs. They’re also in their 2nd straight road game. Teams in their 2nd straight road game are 142-104 ATS since 2008, 75-54 ATS after a loss, 69-42 ATS in their 2nd straight road game as a dog, 46-27 ATS after losing in the first game as a dog, and a whopping 15-5 ATS in their 2nd straight game as road dogs.
Meanwhile, on Dallas’ side, Tony Romo is just 5-9 ATS in his career as double digit favorites. Also, and I find this remarkable, the Cowboys last 11 games have been decided by 4 points or less. Look it up if you don’t believe me. I purposely ignored this last week against New England because New England was a 7+ point favorites and 7+ point favorites are very, very good before a bye. Dallas covered anyway as New England won by just 4. Given that, expecting Dallas to cover a double digit line is ridiculous.
Now, of course, Sam Bradford is out. This might surprise you, but that doesn’t change my pick. All of those powerful trends I mentioned above are still in play and the line has shifted 3 points to compensate for Bradford’s loss. If anything, St. Louis will be even more motivated to win here, to rally around their backup quarterback and try to win their first game, while Dallas will overlook the lowly Rams even more in this sandwich game situation.
Besides, AJ Feeley, the Rams backup quarterback, is one of the better backups in the league in my opinion. Also remember, he’ll have Brandon Lloyd to work with and I think this helps their team tremendously. They had absolutely nothing at receiver before trading for him and now they get a receiver who lead the league in receiving the last time he was in Josh McDaniels’ system. Oh, and on top of this, there’s always a chance Bradford plays. Even if he doesn’t, St. Louis is my pick of the week this week.
Update: Sam Bradford is going to play this week, per Adam Schefter. This line is still at +13 (-105) for St. Louis. It won’t stay this way for long, but anyone who read what I wrote above will understand why I’m bumping this up to a 6 unit pick. I love St. Louis (+13) with Bradford starting. They won’t be miserable offensively anymore with the addition of Brandon Lloyd and they’ll be extra motivated to win this week against a Dallas team that is in a sandwich game situation and hasn’t played a game decided by more than 4 in 11 games. 6 units picks are rarities for me. I made 3 next year and I hit all of them. I’m so confident I can make this 4 for 4 that I’m putting 6 here. If the line drops back to +10-+11, 5 units is the right amount, but as long as you can get this +13, do it and do it big.
Green Bay Packers 38 Minnesota Vikings 14
Pick against spread: Green Bay -9 (+105) 3 units (-300)
I’m betting Aaron Rodgers here and not thinking twice about it. He’s too good. The Packers are 29-14 ATS since 2009, including 5-1 ATS this year. They’ve covered in back-to-back weeks when the trends were heavily against them and this week the trends favor them. They’re favorites of 7+ heading into a bye. Teams in this situation are 42-16 ATS since 2002, albeit only 8-6 ATS on the road like the Packers are, but 4-0 ATS on the road in a divisional game.
Besides, the Packers are awesome on the road ever since Mike McCarthy took over in 2006. Since then, they’re a whopping 31-16 ATS on the road. Plus, the Packers are just too good. The Vikings looked absolutely terrible last week against a Bears team that should have been flat in a sandwich game. The Packers should have no trouble winning here by multiple scores.
New Orleans Saints 30 Indianapolis Colts 21 Survivor Pick (5-1 NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI)
Pick against spread: Indianapolis +14 (-110) 4 units (-440)
The Colts were my pick of the week last week. They were 7 point underdogs and trailed by only 3 with the ball late. However, Pierre Garcon decided stupidly to lateral the ball unnecessarily with 2 minutes left and Carlos Dunlap returned the ball for a cover winning touchdown. Sometimes I hate football. However, discounting last week’s bullshit 10 point loss, this team hasn’t lost by more than 7 since week 1, hanging with the likes of Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh in that stretch. However, Vegas still has them 14 point dogs here against New Orleans.
On top of this, the Saints don’t play well as big favorites. Since Sean Payton took over in 2006, they’re a mere 3-9 ATS when favored by more than 10. Going to league wide, favorites of 10+ are 21-33 ATS since 2010 after a loss as a favorite (8-14 ATS when that loss was a divisional loss). The Saints don’t rebound particularly well after losing as a favorite. They’re only 8-8 ATS in the Sean Payton era after a loss as a favorite, 2-4 ATS after a loss as a divisional favorite. I think they’re going to have a hard time getting up for the lowly Colts this week, especially since Head Coach Sean Payton is injured and needs surgery, which will obviously cut into his time to game plan for the lowly Colts.
Meanwhile, the Colts are desperate for a win. They’re 0-6 right now and I don’t buy any of this “Suck for Luck” stuff. The ownership and general manager might be secretly hoping they lose so they can get Andrew Luck, but the players have their own futures to worry about, as well as their own dignity. This is a proud veteran team that hasn’t lost more than 6 games in a season since 2002 and now they have 6 losses in 6 games. They’re going to give their all. Teams that are 0-5 or worse are 9-1 ATS as double digit road dogs in the last 10 instances. Teams in that situation are undervalued by Vegas, overlooked by the opponent, and especially hungry to win. Finally, Curtis Painter is getting better every week for the Colts. I think he’s good enough this week to keep it within 2 scores.
Baltimore Ravens 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 12
Pick against spread: Baltimore -7.5 (-110) 3 units
Fun fact, the Jacksonville Jaguars are the worst team ATS since 2008. They’re 19-34 ATS in that stretch. I bet you wouldn’t guess, but Baltimore is the 2nd best ATS team in that stretch behind the Packers. They’re 36-24 ATS since 2008, since John Harbaugh took over and Joe Flacco was made their starting quarterback. There aren’t any huge situation trends in play here, so that’ll have to do.
Besides, common sense says Jacksonville just sucks. They have the 2nd worst scoring offense in the league behind St. Louis, who has played 1 fewer game than they have. They have scored 20 or fewer in their last 8 games and they are 1-8 in their last 9 games dating back to last season, when they were somehow 8-5 and leading the division.
Quarterback Blaine Gabbert is clearly not ready to be on the field. He’s completed just 48.8% of his passes for an average of 5.8 yards per attempt. They’re going to have a very hard time scoring more than 14 here as they’ve only done that once this year and they haven’t quite faced a defense like Baltimore’s. Baltimore can cover this spread with 21 points. I don’t think they have any problem doing that.
Teaser: Baltimore -1.5, Green Bay -3 3 units
How does this not hit?
Hedge: Jacksonville +450 (1 unit)
One half of the teaser has hit. I thought about leaving it be, but I’ve been screwed over so much I want to definitely make some money. If Baltimore wins by 2 or more, I win $300 and lose $100, so $200. If Jacksonville wins, I win $450 and lose $300 so I win $150. If Baltimore wins by 1 or ties, I lose $400 and throw my computer out the window.
LV Hilton Super Contest Picks (for anyone playing): St. Louis +12, Denver +1.5, Indianapolis +14, Arizona +3.5, Packers -9 (15-15 on the season).
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