I have broken my sleepers into 4 categories this year. Mid Round Upside Picks, Mid Round Value Picks, Late Round Upside Picks, Late Round Value Picks. A Mid Round Upside Pick, as I will list here, is anyone available in the late rounds (13^th-15^th) of a 12 team draft, that has the potential to be a lot more productive than where they are getting drafted. They aren’t guaranteed to be great players, but they have the potential to be worth a lot more than where they are drafted.

All average draft position (ADP) stats are as of 9/1/10 and were found at ESPN.com. ADP stats serve to provide you an estimate of when you should take these players and when you can expect them to be off of the board and thus ADP stats are crucial when dealing with upside and value picks.

WR Brandon LaFell CAR 

ADP: 170th 

8/10/10: As I suspected he could, Brandon LaFell is shining in Steve Smith’s absence and is likely to beat out the terrible Dwayne Jarrett for the #2 receiving job. John Fox doesn’t normally start rookies, but that just goes to show you how talented a 3^rd rounder this kid is and how horrible a receiver Dwayne Jarrett is. Smith is extremely injury prone so LaFell would have major value in his absense and Smith is also 5-9 so the 6-2 LaFell is probably going to be Matt Moore’s favorite goal line wide out. He is some, but not huge fantasy upside this year and is worth a late round pick in some leagues.

6/29/10: If anyone is going to benefit from Smith’s injury, it’s LaFell. LaFell hasn’t been seeing a lot of time with the first time in practice, but that’s because Carolina coach John Fox always gives veterans the first shot at winning a starting job and LaFell is a 3^rd round pick rookie. 4^th year receiver Dwayne Jarrett has been getting all the first team reps in camp opposite Smith, but with Smith out, Fox really has no choice but to give LaFell more work. If he impresses with the first team, he could take the job from Jarrett. There’s no question in my mind that LaFell is more talented than Jarrett, even as a rookie. Jarrett has been horrible in his first 3 years since being drafted in the 2^nd out of USC. He has, on many occasions, looked completely lost on the football field. If LaFell takes the starting job from him, he could have some fantasy value, especially if Smith doesn’t come back 100% opposite him. I’m not ready to make him a sleeper yet, but keep your eye on him. 

WR Mike Thomas- JAC

ADP: 170th

I loved Thomas coming out of school and he will be the #2 receiver for the Jaguars this year. He should be able to get close to Torry Holt’s yards from 2009, 772 yards. He’s not an endzone threat, but he could end up leading the team in receiving yards if Mike Sims Walker stays inconsistent next year.

TE Jermaine Gresham- CIN

ADP: 140th

I have no idea how Gresham will be used this year. The Bengals have never had a pass catching tight end of his caliber in the Carson Palmer era. I don’t know how his knee will be after the surgery he had last year and I don’t know how he’ll respond to his first competitive football since 2008 (thanks to knee surgery). I do know that, if used right and healthy and 100%, he has the talent to be a fantasy starter caliber tight end this year, even as a rookie. There’s risk here, but if you’re looking for a high upside tight end to pair with a more reliable guy like Heath Miller, Gresham’s a solid option. 

RB Bernard Scott- CIN

ADP: 148th

6/29/10: If Benson gets suspended, Scott looks like the go to back. He’s very talented and can put up numbers for you. Scott was already a fantasy sleeper of mine because of Benson’s history of injuries and arrestes, but now he becomes even more of a fantasy sleeper as Benson’s history rears its head again.

Cedric Benson is not the most durable guy in NFL history and he had a ton of carries last year, 301. If Benson gets hurt this year, Scott will benefit and be a solid RB2 for a few weeks. Benson’s 2009 may have also been a fluke.

 

QB Josh Freeman- TB

ADP: 170th

Freeman put in a ton of work in the off season and he has former 1^st round pick talent. He had a horrible and horribly inconsistent rookie year last year, but he has upside of this year because of his work ethic and his natural physical abilities and talent. His supporting cast won’t help him out as much as Sanchez’ or Stafford’s will, but he still is a high upside QB2. 

WR Mike Williams- TB

ADP: 136th

8/31/10: Williams has looked amazing this preseason and is the clear #1 wide receiver for the Bucs.

QB Matt Moore- CAR

ADP: 170th

Moore wasn’t much better than Clausen in their 2^nd preseason game as, even without Darrelle Revis, the Jets secondary completely shut down the Panthers aerial attack. However, Clausen’s performance was so bad he all but eliminated himself from the starting job competition. Moore looks like the guy and therefore an interesting late round sleeper. Despite his 2^nd week performance, Moore is still a talented and underrated quarterback who put up solid numbers to end the last year. He is the reason why I believe the Panthers will win many games against spread. This is a very underrated bunch.

WR Legedu Naanee- SD 

ADP: 170th 

9/3/10: The Chargers have traded for Patrick Crayton who will likely cut into Naanee’s targets. 

9/2/10: With Jackson out, Naanee would become a starter in the Chargers offense. He has looked decent in the preseason and has some late round upside. 

7/24/10: If Jackson holds out, Naanee will be their starter for 6 weeks, instead of 3. He’ll probably go to the bench when Jackson shows up, but they might be so mad at him they don’t even hurt him. Naanee is a shot at a very good and surprising fantasy season.

WR Louis Murphy- OAK

ADP: 145th

8/24/10: With Schilens out, the 2^nd year Murphy shined. Murphy was their best receiver when he played last year, with Darrius Heyward Bey struggling and Schilens not 100% after his foot injury, and if Schilens is less than 100% again or misses anytime, Murphy could be a solid WR3 for a few weeks. He’s worth a look late in your fantasy draft. He’d be a huge fantasy player if Schilens missed any time with a foot injury or knee surgery.

WR Brandon Gibson- STL

ADP: 170th

8/31/10: Someone has to lead the Rams in receiving with Avery down…right? With Avery down and Laurent Robinson unable to catch a single ball, on 4 targets, in his absense, Gibson, who showed flashes of good things to come last year as a rookie, could end up as the top receiver in St. Louis. 

TE Rob Gronkowski- NE

ADP: 170th

8/31/10: Gronkowski definitely doesn’t look like a rookie this preseason. He’s a big physical tight end and he should be the starter in New England’s explosive offense. He’s not going to be a top 15 tight end of mine, but he’s certainly someone to keep your eye on. He looks like a true end zone weapon. 

WR Brian Hartline- MIA 

ADP: 170th

8/31/10: Hartline has looked good in the preseason so far and with Greg Camarillo gone, there are fewer talented receivers to steal receptions from him. He’s someone to keep your eye on as Miami’s #2 receiver. 

WR Mike Williams- SEA

ADP: 170th

9/3/10: Housh is out. Deion Branch is injury prone. That leaves Mike Williams and Deon Butler as the only two potentially fantasy worthy receiver on the team. Williams is more athletic than the 2nd year Butler, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Butler ended up the team leader in receiving yards. 

 

 

Middle Linebacker

Boston College

6-3 242

Draft board overall prospect rank: #7

Draft board middle linebacker rank: #1

Overall rating: 91 (Top 10 pick)

40 time: 4.50

Games watched: Clemson/Boston College, Boston College/Maryland

Positives

·         Incredibly productive (534 tackles, 35.5 for loss, 2.5 sacks, 10 pass deflections, 7 interceptions, 2 forced fumbles in just 3 years)

·         3 year starter

·         Incredibly consistent (double digit tackles in every game but 4, 9+ tackles in every game but 2, both of which were the first 2 games of his collegiate career)

·         Leader on and off the field

·         Excellent motor

·         Excellent work ethic

·         Intelligence

·         Passion

·         All the intangibles

·         Takes excellent routes to the ball

·         Excellent tackle technique

·         Rarely misses a tackle

·         A nose for the football

·         Very good in coverage – particularly in zone

·         Makes plays on the ball in the air

·         Reads the quarterbacks’ eyes

·         Instinctive

·         Excellent, fluid hips

·         Gets deep in his drops in coverage

·         A willing and capable special teamer

·         Literally did everything for Boston College (4 down linebacker, who played every type of special teams imaginable)

·         Great athleticism (4.50 40, 38 inch vertical, 10-2 broad jump)

·         Good bench press numbers (27 reps of 225)

Negatives

·         Not as good at shedding blocks as you’d expect

·         Not a pass rusher

·         Not a big hitter (only 2 forced fumbles)

·         Only average on field strength

·         Plays a position of low value

·         Might be too small for some 3-4 defenses

NFL Comparison: Jerod Mayo

Luke Kuechly might be the cleanest player in this draft class. He has everything you love in a linebacker. He’s a phenomenal tackler who has 534 tackles in just 3 years, with 10+ tackles in 34 of 38 games and 9+ tackles in each of his last 9. He’s got all the intangibles. He never comes off the field. He has a great motor, great intelligent, great leadership, great work ethic, great passion and love of the game, and he’s squeaky clean off the field. He’s a phenomenal athlete with 4.5 speed and above average leaping ability, as well as above average bench press strength. He’s also excellent in coverage so he can play all 3 downs (4 if you count special teams).

His weaknesses are minor. He’s a tad bit undersized for some 3-4 defenses and he’s not great at shedding blockers, though in today’s NFL neither of those things are big deals. He isn’t a big hitter, with only 2 forced fumbles, but he more than makes up for that with all of his other production. He’s not a pass rusher, but he covers so well that it doesn’t matter. He’s the first non-rush linebacker I’ve ever given a top 10 grade and I think he has a solid chance to go there on draft day.

He’ll probably come off the board sometime between 9 and 12 as Carolina at 9, Buffalo at 10, Kansas City at 11, and Seattle at 12 will all have interest. I have him to Seattle, but I acknowledge that all of the other 3 are options. He reminds me a lot of another linebacker who went very high in the draft, Jerod Mayo, who the Patriots surprisingly took 10^th overall in 2008.

Mayo has more than lived up to that draft pick with 501 tackles in 4 years (59 career games). He’s also been very good in coverage and when he’s rarely missed a game, his absence is noticeable. He’d played in both a 3-4 and a 4-3 for New England. Kuechly is best fit in a 4-3, but can play in some 3-4s, which is why Kansas City (a 3-4 team run by Scott Pioli, who was on New England’s staff when they took Mayo) is a frequently mocked destination for him.

Kuechly is one of 6 elite talents in this draft class in my eyes (Luck, Griffin, Kalil, Richardson, DeCastro, and Kuechly), but will be devalued because of his position. Position aside, he’s the 5^th best player in this draft class. Position factored in, I have him 7^th in that 2^nd tier with guys like Richardson (also hurt by his position) Coples, Mercilus, Claiborne, Floyd, and Blackmon, all 2^nd tier talents.

 

 

Look, I don’t have anything against Matt Moore. He can be a solid backup and that’s what this deal pays him like, 5 million over 2 years. The reason they get an F is because after resigning Moore, they announced they would not be going after Kyle Orton. I don’t understand this at all. This team was 30^th in the league in scoring offense last year and 14^th in the league in scoring defense. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out why this team went 7-9 last year. They’ve done a great job of fixing the running game and the offensive line this offseason.

They just needed to fix their quarterback situation. Kyle Orton, by no means, is a franchise quarterback. However, he’s not going to kill you with turnovers like Chad Henne, he has had a ton of success with Brandon Marshall in the past, and with a good supporting cast like the Dolphins have, he can get you 9-10 wins next season. You’re not going to win a Super Bowl with him, but he’s well worth the 3^rd rounder they refused to give up for him.

Grade: F

 

 

3-4 Defensive End/Defensive Tackle

Purdue

6-3 294

40 time: 4.86

Draft board overall prospect rank: #42

Draft board 3-4 defensive end rank: #6

Overall rating: 79* 

            3/28/10: Mike Neal is a very impressive defensive lineman prospect from the Purdue Boilermakers. He’s had 10 sacks in the last 2 years against a higher level of competition than he is given credit for (Big 10). He has amazing quickness and a very good set of pass rushing moves. His straight line speed is athleticism are very good for his size. He is a bit undersized, but he’d be a perfect fit as a 3-4 defensive end because of his pass rushing moves and his agility and athleticism. He gets into the backfield with great ease and gets his way around bigger offensive linemen with sneaky quickness. He is a very smart pass rusher and has good size against the run, though he can be run at a bit. He’s very fundamentally sound and hits hard with good wrap up and doesn’t often miss. He was again impressive in the Senior Bowl, but the necessary hype around him is not there yet, likely because of the lack of national attention Purdue gets, despite being a part of the Big 10. He probably will go in the 3^rd round, but some smart GM may take him in the 2^nd as a 3-4 guy. He deserves to be a 2^nd round prospect, that 3^rd tier interior rusher after Suh/McCoy and Odrick/Price.

NFL Comparison: Darnell Dockett

*For a breakdown of what this means, click here

 

Offensive Tackle

Colorado

6-8 307

Draft board overall prospect rank: #43

Draft board overall offensive tackle rank: #7

Overall rating: 79 (Early 2nd)

40 time: 4.97

3/11/11: Solder lost 12 pounds off his already skinny frame in 2 weeks, a very bad sign. He’s at 6-8 307 now and may have maxed his frame after putting on 25-30 pounds in the last 3 years to convert from tight end to left tackle.

2/15/11: Nate Solder is a very interesting prospect. He is a former blocking tight end who put on about 30-35 pounds over 3 years to become Colorado’s starting left tackle. He was the only underclassman on the Big 12 first team’s offensive line in 2009 and he was a consensus All-American in 2010, despite being so new at the position. He still maintains a lot of his athleticism from his tight end days and should run a 40 in the 4.8-4.9 range.

He has long arms, which suggests he still has room to put more weight on his frame, which could be necessary. 315 pounds is still fairly skinny for 6-8 1/2. He was compared to Tony Boselli several times during the Senior Bowl and is the consensus top tackle right now. He’s my #2 tackle. I think Anthony Costanzo is more polished, but he’s definitely got the bigger upside.

He was very inconsistent at The Combine, looking extremely athletic and overpowering at times during practice, but struggling his technique against more polished defensive linemen in the game. He gets too high and doesn’t bend his knees naturally, but he just needs some coaching. In my opinion, he’s best starting off as a right tackle, where he won’t have to deal with such polished pass rushers. He definitely has left tackle upside and the potential to be one of the best at the position someday. 

NFL Comparison: Robert Gallery 

 

1-16 17-32 2nd Round 3rd Round 4th Round 5th Round 6th Round 7th Round

 

132. Carolina Panthers- Austin Pettis (Boise State)

Steve Smith wants out. David Gettis and Brandon LaFell both flashed as rookies, but they were also very inconsistent. They’ll need to add another receiver into the mix.

133. Buffalo Bills- OT DeMarcus Love (Arkansas)

Continuing to build around Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Bills add a talented development prospect at tackle. They haven’t drafted a tackle early in years and it shows. Hopefully for them, Love pans out, unlike most of their late round tackles.

134. Cincinnati Bengals- S Jeron Johnson (Boise State)

Safety depth is needed and Jeron Johnson fits their scheme like a glove.

135. Kansas City Chiefs- NT Ian Williams (Notre Dame)

In 2 years since they switched to the 3-4, they haven’t really had a true 3-4 nose tackle like Ian Williams

136. Arizona Cardinals- FB Owen Marecic (Stanford)

The Cardinals need an upgrade at fullback to help out their running game and Marecic is the best this class has to offer. He’s a terrific special teamer as well.

137. Cleveland Browns- CB Jalil Brown (Colorado)

If they don’t take Patrick Peterson in the first, they’ll have to address the cornerback position at some point. They need something for the future opposite Joe Haden.

138. Houston Texans- S Joe Lefeged (Rutgers)

Bernard Pollard really struggled in coverage last year and when you’re 31^st against the pass and have to face Peyton Manning twice a year, adding two safeties in the draft isn’t a bad idea.

139. Minnesota Vikings- TE Rob Housler (Florida Atlantic)

The Vikings are known to be looking for tight ends for their 2 tight end set in 2011.

135. Kansas City Chiefs- C Tim Barnes (Missouri)

Casey Wiegmann is one of the league’s older players, turning 38 in July. They need a center of the future.

141. San Francisco 49ers- WR Greg Salas (Hawaii)

Salas would be an upgrade in the slot over Ted Ginn, who shouldn’t do anything other than special teams.

142. Tennessee Titans- DE Greg Romeus (Pittsbugh)

The Titans go for the homerun here at defensive end and they really don’t have any other choice at this point. Romeus is a first round talent if he’s healthy. He’s worth the risk in the 5^th. Jason Babin probably won’t be back so they need another end opposite Derrick Morgan.

143. Dallas Cowboys- 3-4 DE Brandon Bair (Oregon)

Marcus Spears never panned out at 3-4 defensive end. He’s likely gone as a free agent. Bair can be his replacement.

144. Washington Redskins- OT Derek Newton (Arkansas State)

Mike Shanahan loves building his offensive line and Newton is an excellent fit for his zone blocking scheme. Right tackle Jammal Brown is a free agent.

145. Dallas Cowboys- WR Stephen Burton (West Texas A&M)

The Cowboys aren’t going to want to pay Roy Williams to be their 3^rd receiver. The high upside Stephen Burton can be that guy and his upside is going to intrigue Jerry Jones.

146. Miami Dolphins- CB Chimdi Chewka (Ohio State)

They need depth at the cornerback position. If Chewka pans out, they could move Sean Smith to free safety, another need position.

147. Jacksonville Jaguars- WR Niles Paul (Nebraska)

They have nothing after Mike Thomas at wide receiver with Mike Sims Walker all but gone as a free agent.

148. Oakland Raiders- TE Virgil Green (Nevada)

The Raiders want to run more two tight end sets and Zach Miller is a free agent. Virgil Green has the athleticism and measurables that Al Davis likes.

 

149. Philadelphia Eagles- G Lee Ziemba (Auburn)

More help for the right side of their offensive line. If Pinkston plays inside, Ziemba can move outside to right tackle.

150. Minnesota Vikings- WR Dwayne Harris (East Carolina)

Sidney Rice could be a free agent depending on the new CBA rules and given that the Vikings don’t have a quarterback, you couldn’t blame him for skipping town. Add wide receiver to that long list of needs. That at least need depth behind Percy Harvin and Bernard Berrian should Rice leave.

151. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- RB Noel Devine (West Virginia)

Cadillac Williams is probably gone as a free agent so they’ll need a new 3^rd down back. Noel Devine will give them a speedster compliment to the bruising LeGarrette Blount.

152. Indianapolis Colts- DT Martin Parker (Richmond)

The Colts never draft defensive tackles early, even though they’ve needed help at the position for years. Bill Polian simply doesn’t value the position that much. However, they will look for defensive tackles in the late rounds and Parker is a great fit for their scheme.

153. Philadelphia Eagles- DT Cedric Thornton (Southern Arkansas)

The Eagles need depth at defensive tackle and with an abundance of late round picks, they can afford to take Thornton here, where he is one of the best available.

154. Detroit Lions- RB Stevan Ridley (LSU)

They’ve used Maurice Morris extensively down the stretch in each of the past two years. That can’t happen again. They need more depth at the running back position.

155. Washington Redskins- RB Delone Carter (Syracuse)

Mike Shanahan loves grabbing running backs in the late rounds. Carter is the best running back available and could be a good fit for their scheme.

156. Seattle Seahawks- S Shiloh Keo (Idaho)

Somewhere Lawyer Milloy is still getting burned by Greg Olsen. The 37 year old is done.

157. Seattle Seahawks- CB Shareece Wright (USC)

Kelly Jennings has struggled in the past few years and now is a free agent. Pete Carroll grabs one of his old USC guys.

158. Atlanta Falcons- WR Jeremy Kerley (TCU)

Another wide receiver upgrade for the Falcons. Kerley looks like a natural slot guy and can help on special teams as well.

159. New England Patriots- FB Charles Clay (Tulsa)

If any team can find a way to utilize this enigmatic prospect, it’s the Patriots.

160. Chicago Bears- WR Terrance Toliver (LSU)

Lovie Smith has expressed interest in adding a big wide receiver to compliment their smaller receivers, guys like Johnny Knox and Devin Hester. The 6-4 Toliver fits the bill.

161. New York Jets- S Chris Conte (California)

Brodney Pool is a free agent and safety depth is needed regardless.

162. Pittsburgh Steelers- CB Curtis Marsh (Utah State)

They’re going to need to add more than one cornerback through the draft if they’re going to avoid getting destroyed by teams that can spread.

163. Green Bay Packers- WR Cecil Shorts (Mount Union)

I know what you’re thinking, didn’t the Packers just win a Super Bowl because of their strength at wide receiver? Yes, and that is exactly why they must keep it a strength. Donald Driver has hinted at retiring this offseason and he’s 36 and on his last legs anyway. Meanwhile, James Jones could be a free agent, depending on the new CBA rules.

164. Baltimore Ravens- RLB Bruce Miller (UCF)

Another potential pass rusher for them. Sergio Kindle suffered an accident after they drafted him in the 2^nd round last year and his career is in serious doubt. Miller can be a do-over.

165. Baltimore Ravens- CB Buster Skrine (UT-Chattanooga)

They only have two cornerbacks under contract for next year. They’ll either sign Nnamdi Asomugha or resign Chris Carr, but the high upside Skrine can be the 4^th corner.

 

Go on to 6th Round

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