This is a fun idea I saw in other places on the internet, a dream draft. The point is, to give myself the 17^th pick (right in the middle of the round) in every round, and take the best available player on my board, not paying any attention to team need, and knowing who would be available in the next round. Let’s see some results.

1^st round- QB Jimmy Clausen

Perfect. Clausen was a franchise quarterback in my mind and my team of no one needs a quarterback. Quarterback is the most important position on the field. A good quarterback can mask other needs. A good quarterbacks opens up lanes for running backs, makes receivers look good, can make the offensive line look good, and put up points to take leads and allows your defense to blitz, create pressure, and force turnovers. Unfortunately, Clausen did not last to the 17^th pick in the 2^nd round. He went with the 16^th pick in the 2^nd to Carolina. However, I’m still more than happy to have him in the first.

2^nd round- OT Charles Brown

Brown slipped out of the first round due to a couple of minor injury concerns and questions about lack of size. However, Brown a talented tackle who fits a zone blocking scheme perfectly. He should be a 10 year starter in the NFL at left tackle with good smart footwork and solid lateral agility. Getting a blindside protector for my quarterback is very helpful and it just so happens I can get a solid one here.

3^rd round- OT Bruce Campbell

I swear I’m not going crazy over positional value. Campbell is my BPA at this point and happens to play a high positional value position so that’s even better. Campbell could be a left tackle in this league, but he’ll be a solid right tackle as well.

4^th round- OLB/DE Eric Norwood

Norwood could serve the Brian Orakpo role on my team and I love what the ‘Skins did with Orakpo last year and hope that other defensive coordinators do similar things with similar players in the future. There were concerns about Orakpo’s ability to cover as a linebacker and to stop the run as an end so the Redskins stuck him at end on passing downs and at linebacker on running downs. Norwood is a similar player, albeit not quite as talented, but he can serve a similar role and be a starter on my team and create a strong pass rush. He’s also my best available out of any player left that wouldn’t be available in the 5^th.

5^th round- RB Jonathan Dwyer

I thought I was lower on Dwyer than most and when he fell all the way to the 6^th, I was shocked. I guess NFL scouts were even more afraid of his option spread background and work ethic concerns than I was. However, he was very productive last year and he’s only 20 years old so I’ll give the kid a shot in the 5^th.

6^th round- WR Dezmon Briscoe

Like Danario Alexander (before the news of his nasty knee injury surfaced), I felt Dezmon Briscoe was productive enough last year to merit a shot in the mid rounds, despite concerns about his speed and the scheme he played in. Briscoe fell to the late 6^th, but I’ll take him here. What he lacks in speed, he makes up for in strength as he looked like a running back in the open field last year. He had good hands on the outside last year too, though he struggled to make catches going over the middle at times.

7^th round- CB/S Donovan Warren

I had a borderline first round grade on Warren so when he fell out of the draft completely because of concerns about his speed, people started to doubt me. However, the Jets snatched him as soon as the draft was over and now reports say that Warren may not only be competing for a starting job at free safety this offseason, but he may be the favorite to be their week 1 starter at free safety. Still doubt me?

The Atlanta Falcons had an excellent regular season. They won 13 games, winning the division over the defending Super Bowl Champion Saints, who happen to be their closest rival. They also beat the Saints once in New Orleans. Matt Ryan took the from good quarterback to great quarterback in the eyes on many, leading the 13-3 Falcons with a 62.5% completion percentage, 6.5 YPA, and 28 touchdowns to 9 picks. However, they still didn’t win a playoff game and they didn’t just fall short in the first round. They got their asses handed to them 48-21 at home against the Packers.

Before I break down that game, let’s go to week 16. The Falcons sit at 12-2, tied with the Patriots for best record in the league, ready to face the New Orleans Saints. A win would give them a sweep over their talented division rivals and clinch them the division. It would also improve Matt Ryan’s home record to 20-1 in his career, an amazing feat.

However, they lost. That revealed two things. One, you could beat the Falcons in Atlanta. It was possible. Two, this team is conservative to a fault. Down 3 with less than 3 minutes to go, the Falcons decided to punt to the Saints, hoping their defense would get them the ball back for a shot to win it. Drew Brees had other ideas. Of course he did. He’s Drew Brees. You have to fight fire with fire. The Falcons didn’t do that. They lost.

The Falcons mantra for winning games. Run the ball (497 attempts, 5^th in the league), convert 3^rd downs (46.7% 3^rd in the league), control the ball (1074 plays run, tops in the league), play good defense (18 points per game allowed, 5^th in the league), don’t turn the ball over (17 turnovers, 3^rd in the league), only attempt makeable 4^th downs (73.3% 4^th down percentage, tops in league), move the chains (353 first downs, 4^th in league). It works great when you’re ahead. Not so well when you’re behind. It leads to a lot of 7 point or fewer wins, (7 of their 13), but also a few double digit loss (Philadelphia 31-17).

That Philadelphia game actually foreshadowed their loss to Green Bay. Philadelphia, like Green Bay, is a down the field, vertical offense that can make you play from behind. Green Bay did that and won 48-21. The Falcons didn’t have an answer down multiple score. They hadn’t completed a pass of longer than 46 yards all year. They didn’t have a deep threat. Matt Ryan didn’t have the cannon arm that Aaron Rodgers had. They didn’t even seem to have the plays in the playbook to get big yards. They lost.

By Ryan Glab 

A look at four keys for the Bears to beat this week’s opponent.

1. Contain Adrian Peterson

At a quick glance, it seems as though Adrian Peterson has owned the Bears defense since entering the league in 2007. But after examining the statistics even further, the Bears have done a good job of containing Peterson for the majority of the games and instead have allowed him to break off a few big runs that have skewed the statistics. That’s basically how Peterson runs the football, though. Much like Barry Sanders did, Peterson picks up a lot of yards through a few carries. It’s important to stay disciplined when facing him because the Bears can take him out of the game by limiting him to short gains. Peterson has not yet fumbled this season — something he has done far more than any other running back the past few years — which could pave the way for the turnover-happy Bears to pry one away from him. It takes a special effort to stop a special player and that’s exactly what the Bears’ No. 3 run defense will need to do Sunday.

2. Rough up Brett Favre

The New Orleans Saints laid the foundation and the blueprint for how to defeat Brett Favre in last year’s NFC Championship game. That plan is to sack him as much as possible and if the sacks aren’t coming, at least rough him up simultaneously after the throw so that his tired, old body feels the effects later in the game. Defenses may not be able to knock the resilient 41-year-old out of games, but Favre is fighting a losing battle against Father Time. Sure, he still may be able to sling the football around, but his mobility has declined by the year and his consistency is becoming more erratic. If the Bears can register a few knockdowns early in the game, it could and should take its toll on Favre in crunch time — if their is a crunch time in this game.

3. Commit to the run game

The Bears had the winning formula against the Bills: commit to the run on offense, play stout defense, and play good special teams. Although the Bears couldn’t rack up huge gains on the ground, the fact that they stayed committed to the run game enabled them to run playaction effectively and kept the defense honest. It’s one thing for Mike Martz to alter his game plan for one week against the worst run defense in the league. It’ll be another thing if he does it in back-to-back weeks. If the Bears fail to make headway in the run game against Minnesota, will he fall back to a pass-first mentality? Or has Lovie Smith gotten into his head and emphasized the importance of sticking to the run?

4. Focus on protecting field position

Eliminating turnovers on their own end of the field, preventing long drives from the Vikings offense, and creating good special teams returns will help the Bears maintain field position. Against a team that possesses dangerous weapons on offense, the last thing the Bears can afford to do is give them a short field with which to work. With how much the Bears have struggled offensively to move the football, they can’t afford to be pinned deep in their own territory, either.

http://www.bearsbeat.com/

Go back to Bears Fan Spot 

By Matthew Frank

The NY Giants take on the Carolina Panthers this week in the first regular season NFL game at the new stadium.  The Giants hope to avenge last years humiliating loss in the last ever game in Giants Stadium.  For those of you that forgot, the Panthers ran all over the Giants in that game amassing a ton of yardage and holding on to the ball for large portions of the game.

The Giants game plan this week has to be to stop the run at all costs.  Matt Moore is now the signal caller for the Panthers, and there is no reason to be afraid of him at all.  Except for Steve Smith, the Carolina passing game is not to be feared at all.  The Panthers are going to run, and run often, and it is up to the Giants to muscle up and stop them.  This should probably give the Giants revamped secondary a chance for a breather now and then, but it is time to see if the defense line can show its old form again.

As for the offense, the Panthers are a long way away from being the dominant unit they are known for.  Except the typical Giants game plan, run heavy but not afraid to go to the pass, from the start.  Manning will probably not be hesitant to throw the ball up and hopefully we can see the running game get going again.  It will also be interesting to see how the new stadium plays with regards to wind and rain.

http://www.bigbluefootballreview.com/

10. QB Blaine Gabbert C

David Garrard turned 33 this offseason and he’s always just been a marginal player so there is a need for a franchise quarterback in town. I just don’t think, in this weak quarterback class, this was the year to do it. They would have been much better off not trading up, taking Kerrigan at 16 to fix their pass rush, keeping their 2^nd round pick, and trying to get a successor for Garrard next year. Gabbert had a 2^nd round grade in my book so this is a reach. However, I do like that Gabbert has a chance to sit behind Garrard, which will help his development long term, but at the same time, this is a veteran team that needs to be building for now and this is just giving mixed signals. I have mixed feelings on this one.

76. G Will Rackley C-

I never bought into the Rackley hype, so while some will see this as a steal in the 3^rd, I see it as a reach and Rackley doesn’t fill a major need either.

114. WR Cecil Shorts B-

Shorts fills a need at wide receiver as they have nothing behind Mike Thomas, but I think Shorts was a minor reach in the 4^th as I had a 5^th or 6^th round grade on him.

121. S Chris Prosinski C

I understand why they drafted Prosinski. Gene Smith likes strong motor, small school kids and he does fill a need giving them safety depth and special teams play, but they really needed to get a starter at safety through the draft and there were much better safeties available.

147. CB Rod Isaac D

Who? I was familiar with about 450 draft prospects to build my top 300, but I’ve never heard of this guy. He may turn out to be good and make me look stupid, but that’s a risk I’m willing to take. The only reason this doesn’t get an F is because it fills their biggest need, cornerback.

Overall:

The Jaguars main need coming into the draft should have been to fix their pass defense. They ranked 32^nd against the pass last year. They needed defensive end help, cornerback help, and safety help. They didn’t draft a single defensive end and in the secondary, they waited until late to reach for players to fill needs there. They also only had 5 picks because they traded up to get Blaine Gabbert. Quarterback wasn’t a huge need for them and this is a terrible quarterback class so it would have been best for them to wait until next year to get their guy. The only reason this isn’t a D or an F is because I could see Gabbert becoming a franchise guy 2 years down the road after sitting and maturing behind Garrard.

Grade: C-

Cornerback/wide receiver 

Alabama

5-9 197

40 time: 4.52

Draft board overall prospect rank: #48

Draft board cornerback rank: #5

Overall rating: 78*

1/23/10: He could be a decent nickelback and showed good abilities at the cornerback position this year in his 2^nd full season at the position, with 70 tackles, 5 sacks, and 5 picks, but his value is as a kick returner. He is one of, if not the best kick returners in the nation so in addition to being a solid nickel corner at the next level, he’ll be a great kick returner as well. He may also pull a Devin Hester and switch over to wide receiver as he’s shown good hands and abilities in the open field.

            9/12/09: Javier Arenas is probably the most gifted punt and kick returner in college football since Devin Hester. He has 6 special teams touchdowns, all on punt returns, in his career, and has averaged an amazing 25 yards per return on kick returns over the past 2 years for Alabama. He did not miss a beat last season on returns, despite playing more at cornerback for the first time in his career. In 2007, he had 27 returns for 657 yards on kickoffs and 25 returns for 323 yards and a touchdown and last year he had 26 returns for 610 yards and 55 punt returns for 650 yards and 3 touchdowns. He has shown that he can play all 3 positions without missing a beat. However, NFL scouts have some reservations about his ability to play cornerback in the NFL. He has struggled some in both man and zone coverage at cornerback and has really only spent 1 full year at the position. He has room to improve with experience, and he’ll have to do that this year if he wants to go in the first round, but if it weren’t for his return abilities, he’d probably be a late round prospect at best. When he gets the ball in his hands, he’s deadly, but he hasn’t shown the best hands, with only 1 interception in his career, though he did return that for a pick-six. Whether his low interception total is a result of bad hands or average skills in man coverage is a bit of a mystery at this point. He did only have 7 pass breakups last season so it may be more of the latter. If he can show he can make catches, he could move to the offensive side of the ball and play wide receiver, which would greatly help him longterm. The more positions he can possibly play, the better his draft stock is, for obvious reason. He’s not small. At 5-9 he weighs 195 pounds which is a pretty big frame for someone of that height so there are no size concerns, with the exception of height. He wraps up really nicely and is a strong helper against the run, part of the reason why Alabama’s run defense was so good on the whole last season. He breaks through the jam at the line of scrimmage well. He had 3.5 tackles for losses and 2 sacks last season. His straight line speed is very average. Its his quickness and agility that makes him so deadly with the ball in his hands. He should run a 40 in the 4.41-4.45 range. His lack of straight line speed hurts him in pass coverage some because he doesn’t have elite recovery speed when caught out of position. He should be a 2^nd round pick because of his ability to change the game on special teams, added with his potential at cornerback, or possibly at wide receiver, but I don’t think he’ll ever be anything other than an amazing special teamer who provides nice depth at either wide receiver or cornerback.

NFL Comparison: Ellis Hobbs

*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here

Wide Receiver

Santonio Holmes is expected back in 2012 (the Jets already paid a 7.5 million dollar roster bonus) even though he and Mark Sanchez have a strained, at best, relationship. However, it is Plaxico Burress who is not expected back next season. They really need a new receiver opposite Holmes and perhaps another one for depth purposes, depending on what they think of Jeremy Kerley, their 5^th rounder last year who was solid, at times, in the slot as a rookie.

Offensive Tackle

Wayne Hunter was one of the worst starting offensive linemen in the league. He surrendered 11 sacks and 32 pressures last year, while committing 11 penalties and this was on the right side, not even against the opponent best pass rusher on a weekly basis. They’ll need to address this position through the draft.

Rush Linebacker

It’s a bad thing when a former first round pick bust leads your team in sacks despite being listed at 228 pounds and only recording 11 total tackles on the season, but that’s exactly what happened with the Jets when Aaron Maybin led the way with 6. Maybin seems to have found a nice role as a situational rusher, but they need help at the starting rush linebacker spots. Calvin Pace is a 31 year old declining player who managed just 4.5 sacks last year. Bryan Thomas will be 33 and coming off a major injury, while Thomas’ replacement, Jamaal Westerman, hardly dropped any jaws in Thomas’ absence, totaling 3.5 sacks. The Jets, as a team, managed just 35 sacks last season, despite blitzing so much. They need to get better at rushing the passer without blitzing. I can’t see Courtney Upshaw falling past them at 16.

Safety

Jim Leonhard is a solid player, but he can’t stay healthy. In his absence, Eric Smith is perennially awful. As a Patriots fan, I love watching him try to cover Rob Gronkowski twice per year. Meanwhile, at the other safety spot, Brodney Pool is decent, but not great. They need another safety in the mix. 

3-4 Defensive End

They addressed this position in the first round last year with Muhammad Wilkerson, but they still need help there. Wilkerson had a good rookie year, but they need a pass rushing compliment for Mike DeVito opposite him. DeVito is great against the run, but offers absolutely no pass rush. His passing rushing compliment, Marcus Thomas, did not do well in that role last year.

Quarterback

Depending on who you ask, Mark Sanchez is either the worst quarterback in the league or definitely the week 1 starter. I think it’s more towards the later, although I could definitely see them bringing in a quarterback to push him as his backup. At the very least, this quarterback can be a better backup than the ancient Mark Brunell.

Nose Tackle

Sione Pouha had another great season, but he is a 33 year old free agent. They drafted Kenrick Ellis in the 3^rd round last year just in case, but there’s a chance that he gets deported this offseason. They could bring in another nose tackle.

Cornerback

Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie are more than fine as the starters, but 2010 1^st round pick Kyle Wilson continues to struggle as the nickelback. Some competition to push him in his 3^rd season wouldn’t hurt.

Center

Their offense was a mess when Nick Mangold was out this season. Obviously, it’s always going to hurt to lose a player of Mangold’s caliber to injury, but if they had a better backup, they could avoid complete catastrophe in case of any future Mangold injuries.

Goodwin used to be a good center, but he’s 33 in December and his best days are behind him. This deal is a 3 year deal that takes him until he’s 35. Given how the market has deflated on free agents in recent days, Goodwin getting 3 years 10.9 million with 4 million dollars guaranteed looks pretty outrageous.

Grade: D 

Deal for Seattle: Back in 2008, I mocked Balmer to the Seahawks with the 25^th pick, as did several others. Balmer eventually slipped to 29^th where the Niners drafted him. However, the Balmer era in San Fran was a colossal failure. With a mere 19 tackles in two years and 0 sacks, Balmer could never consistently break into the rotation at defensive end for the Niners, so the Seahawks are hoping a return to the 4-3 and his natural position of defensive tackle will bring his former first round talent out of him. For a mere 6^th round pick, I’d say that’s a risk worth taking.

Grade: A

Deal for San Francisco: The Niners had absolutely no need for him. He wasn’t going to play significantly on their 3 man line this year at all and really never fit their 3-4 scheme well at all. Getting a 6^th rounder for him is pretty solid considering we’ve seen starting cornerbacks like Chris Houston go for 6^th rounders and star receivers with legal trouble go for a 5^th rounder. The Balmer reclamation project is less likely to work than a possible Adam Carriker bounce back year in Washington, yet the Rams got significantly less for their former 1^st round pick bust.

Grade: A

I have broken my sleepers into 4 categories this year. Mid Round Upside Picks, Mid Round Value Picks, Late Round Upside Picks, Late Round Value Picks. A Late Round Value Pick, as I will list here, is anyone available in the late rounds (13^th-15^th) of a 12 team draft, that doesn’t have the upside of a high upside sleeper, but is just flat out being overlooked. They are a relatively safe pick that you can count on to be worth slightly more than the round you draft them in.

All average draft position (ADP) stats are as of 9/1/10 and were found at ESPN.com