Uncategorized

LSU/Western Kentucky

stevenlourie Uncategorized

 

Spotlight #1: Western Kentucky RB Bobby Rainey

Spotlight #2: LSU G Will Blackwell

1st quarter

13:11: Blackwell with a pancake block to help seal a big hole for the back.

12:30: Blackwell powers a guy forward to open up some space on 2nd and 32.

11:09: Rainey doesn’t have a lot of space, powers forward for 4.

8:01: Rainey helps chip block.

7:18: Rainey on a pitch to the outside, not a lot of room, good open field tackle by Mathieu. 3 yards.

6:18: Jordan Jefferson hits Reuben Randle with a bullet in stride, 53 yard touchdown, Jefferson threw the ball accurately at least 50 yards, good play by Randle as well.

6:07: Rainey up the middle, one cut, not much happening, 3 yards.

4:17: Rainey split out wide, matched up with Morris Claiborne, runs a good curl route, Claiborne slips, easy pitch and catch for the first. Claiborne seems to slip a lot.

3:38: Rainey bounces to the outside, good vision, good run, 6 yards.

2:36: Rainey sees space to the outside, tries to bounce out, but a good play by the defensive tackle to stop him for a gain of a couple yards.

1:11: Rainey with another helpful chip, also on the play, Claiborne almost has a pick off a teammate’s deflection.

1:06: Rainey bounces for a few.

2nd quarter

13:43: Jefferson with another pretty deep ball, this one just dropped by the receiver, tough catch, but needed to be made. Nice throw by Jefferson.

13:27: Rainey with some room up the middle, lacks good explosion here, 3 yards. Little fight.

12:48: Rainey with 3 again, makes one guy miss, runs into a pile.

9:57: Rainey split out wide again, catches it short of the sticks with a man draped on him, stretches out for the 1st, just short, good effort. Might have been a bad spot too.

9:02: Rainey with a good block before going into his route.

8:03: Rainey with a good shove to throw the pass rusher off his trajectory and give his quarterback some more time.

5:13: Jefferson with back to back pretty deep throws. Right on the money. He’s throwing well tonight.

3:22: Rainey not a lot of space, does the best he can, 4 yards.

2:37: Rainey up the middle into traffic, 1 yard.

1:18: Rainey with a cut block. Brandon Taylor also with a pick on the play, wiped out by off sides.

1:01: Rainey struggles with blitz pickup this time, quarterback hit as he throws.

0:56: Rainey powers up the middle on a draw to convert 3rd and 5. Good last effort.

0:43: Western Kentucky quarterback sacked on the same blitz play. Rainey still struggling with blitz pickup.

0:40: Rainey tackled for a loss as soon as he gets the handoff. Nothing he could have done there. Same cornerback blitz again. No one picking that guy up.

0:32: Rainey takes a pitch for a short gain, almost fumbled, LSU recovers, overturned on an official challenge, but Rainey still needs to be more careful.

 

3rd quarter

14:56: Rainey gets the carry, bounce once, nothing happening, 1 yard.

13:10: Claiborne thrown on, incomplete.

13:06: Rainey up the middle for 3.

11:02: Jefferson deep to Randle again, just deflected at the last second, another nice ball by Jefferson, but a better play by the defensive back. Would like to see Randle get just a little bit more separation from a small school cornerback too.

10:58: Blackwell seals a hole for the back.

9:11: Randle just short of a touchdown. Extends, but just short.

8:47: Claiborne with a touchdown saving tackle on the kick return.

8:18: Rainey with his best run of the night. 1st and goal on the 9, cuts to the outside, powerful 7 yard run, almost scores.

6:53: Rainey taken out in the goal line package again.

5:22: Jordan Jefferson takes a safety, first brain fart of the game.

5:11: Rainey up the middle for 4. They just haven’t been able to get him in any space.

4:31: Rainey for another 2. Same story.

3:42: Rainey targeted under pressure, double covered, deflected and picked. Not Rainey’s fault.

2:42: Rainey finally finds space, good vision and cut to run for 14 yards.

2:13: Rainey with poor vision this time to not bounce outside and run into a wall for little to no gain.

1:28: Rainey good in space for solid gain, could have been more than the 7 he picked up, but a great play by LSU to bring him down from behind. Still above average speed.

0:00: Jefferson does a great job of scrambling, extending the play, hitting receiver on the mark for a big gain on the run.

4th quarter

14:59: Randle targeted in the end zone again, another good play by the defensive back to deflect it. Derrius Brooks is doing a solid job on him.

13:52: Blackwell on a good 2nd level block on a rushing touchdown.

13:43: Rainey falls forward for a gain of 1 or so.

13:01: Rainey to the outside in little space for 2 yards.

11:48: Blackwell opens a big hole for the back.

10:16: Blackwell with a good cut block.

5:28: Rainey dances up the middle for a few.

4:50: Rainey finds a small hole, dives forward, almost converts 2nd and 6. Just short.

4:12: Not a big hole for Rainey at all, finds enough room to dive forward for the 1st on 3rd and 1 up the middle.

3:37: Rainey good explosion on the outside for a gain of 7 or so, wiped out by an illegal motion penalty.

3:02: Rainey up the middle, one cut, finds a seam, good run, gets extra yards with a stiff arm for 12 or so on 1st and 15. 15 extra yards on a late hit out of bounds.

1:55: Rainey tackled for a loss of 17 on a designed running back pass, still good effort breaking several tackles to try to extend the play before taking the “sack.”

0:00: Bobby Rainey is one of college football’s leading rushers with 1695 yards and 13 touchdowns on 369 carries in 2011 and 1649 yards and 15 touchdowns on 340 carries in 2010. In this one, he was facing one of the toughest run defenses in the league, LSU. Rainey’s final total was 85 yards on 28 carries, but he had one 7 yard carry brought back by penalty and lost another 17 yards on a play that was really a sack as it was a designed pass. Take those into account and he rushed for 109 yards on 28 carries (3.89 YPA).

Compare that to some of the totals of some of the other NFL prospects at future NFL prospects at running back that LSU has faced and Rainey stacks up pretty well. LaMichael James had 54 yards and a score on 18 carries (3.00 YPA). Vick Ballard had 38 yards on 10 carries (3.80 YPA). Tauren Poole had 70 yards and a score on 19 carries (3.68 YPA). Michael Dyer had 60 yards on 12 carries (5.00 YPA). Trent Richardson had 89 yards on 23 carries (3.87 YPA). Compare to their season total, 2.61 YPA (3rd in Division 1) and 85.46 yards total (3rd in division 1) and Rainey had a good game that will weaken the “he never played anyone” criticism that will be surrounding him come draft season.

Rainey did a good job of getting positive yardage on almost every carry. He did have two carries for more than a loss of a yard or so, but on one he was had by an unpicked up blitz as soon as he got the ball and on the other he actually broke several tackles trying to extend the play on a halfback pass. However, he lacked big play ability in this one and he rarely went over 5 yards or so. Some of this had to do with LSU’s stingy run defense. On several occasions, it looked as if he would break loose, but great individual efforts by LSU’s defensive players prevented that. However, he seemed to lack explosiveness and he didn’t show a ton of fight. He’s got good vision, but he goes down on first contact too much for my taste, at least in this game. He was also taken out on the goal line on several occasions.

Rainey also struggled with blitz pickup. He showed himself to be a willing and a capable blocker, but on blitzes, he really had trouble reading where the pressure was coming from and picking it up, leading to a sack and a quarterback hit, though not entirely his fault. Rainey comes from the Sun Belt where he doesn’t see a lot of exotic defensive schemes and plays so it makes sense he’d be inexperienced in blitz pickup. Nonetheless, it’s something he’ll need to work on.

Western Kentucky’s offense was run heavy throughout the game. That’s their style of play. They run the same run heavy West Coast offense that Stanford and the San Francisco 49ers run, but without the luxury of having someone like Andrew Luck, so obviously they run a lot. Their best offensive player also happens to be their back. They didn’t pass much in this game, even when they were down big. Their quarterback went 11 of 24 for 97 yards and a pick. He had another pick by Brandon Taylor wiped out by penalty. The pick that counted was on a forced ball to Rainey.

Morris Claiborne had yet another near flawless game in coverage. He was thrown away from all game and only allowed 1 completion when he slipped on a curl route covering Rainey split out wide. Slipping seems to be a trend for Claiborne, but other than that, he remains a near perfect cornerback prospect and should be a top 10 pick in April.

Rainey was Western Kentucky’s 2nd leading receiver with 2 catches for 15 yards. He had the aforementioned play against Claiborne where he ran a very nice curl route and got a reception against one of the best cornerbacks in the league. He was frequently lined up split out wide or in the slot, where he had his 2nd catch. His team has a lot of confidence in him as a pass catcher and a route runner doing that and he proved that to me in this one. On the season, Rainey is actually his team’s 2nd leading receiver with 36 catches for 361 yards and 4 scores.

Overall, Rainey had a good game, but he’s far from a perfect prospect. Lack of tough competition does still hurt him coming out of the Sun Belt, even with a good game here. There will also be questions about why he couldn’t get a scholarship at a major college program coming out of high school. Also, his lack of experience against exotic defenses and blitzes will hurt him at the next level. He’s a good in between the tackles runner and has solid speed, but lacks initial explosiveness and needs to show more fight. He’s a great receiver and a willing blocker and extremely proven against lesser competition, but one does have to wonder how he’ll respond in the NFL after 709 carries in the last 2 seasons. He’s also 24, which hurts him some. He looks like a late rounder at the moment.

Offensively for LSU, it was a run heavy attack once again, especially with a big lead for most of the game. They rushed for 294 yards and 4 scores on the ground on 40 carries, with 4 different players getting 5 or more carries, including quarterback Jordan Jefferson. The offensive line played well, including left guard Will Blackwell.

Blackwell was named an AP All-American 2nd teamer, but is not projected much higher than the mid to late rounds because of his lack of size at 6-4 290 and his lack of athleticism to make up for it, but he showed himself to be a good run blocker in this one. He’s got great technique and is a proven college football player and had a great game here, albeit against weak competition. However, he’s been opening up holes for this team all year, even against Alabama and could be a mid to late round steal for a zone blocking team that doesn’t mind smaller offensive linemen. Run blocking is his forte, while pass protection was actually a bit of a mixed back for LSU who didn’t pass much in this game. He also did not look that athletic.

LSU’s passing game was effective as well, just not used all that much out of lack of necessity. Jordan Jefferson had a great game going 8 of 14 for 169 yards and a score and that doesn’t tell the whole story. He had one deep ball dropped and another deflected by a great play by the defensive back. In general, LSU receivers dropped about 2 or 3 or so of his 6 incompletions. He had at least a handful of impressive NFL caliber throws and showed a strong arm with great accuracy on the deep ball, including one where he looked like Big Ben, extending the play and throwing accurately deep on the run. I know it wasn’t the toughest of defenses and Western Kentucky had to sell out on the run, but those throws looked like they would have been big completions against any defense. He threw very well.

Consistency is the problem for him. He looked absolutely awful when I spotlighted him against Georgia, going 5 of 13 for 30 yards and looking very confused by Georgia’s talented 3-4 defense. He doesn’t have the best grasp of the mental parts and the technique parts of the game and accuracy generally is a problem for him. In this game, he had one brain fart moment when he took a safety, but generally he has like 2 or 3 at least. He’s also got the off the field stuff after being arrested to start the season. He’s a winner, but he’s got a great supporting cast.

His numbers in 3 years are decent, but not great. In 2009, he completed 61.5% of his passes for an average of 7.3 YPA with 17 touchdowns to 7 picks. In 2010, he regressed completing just 56.5% for 6.8 YPA and 7 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. This year, he is competing 60.2% of for an average of 8.2 YPA and 6 touchdowns to 1 pick for undefeated LSU. There’s definitely upside here. He’s got an NFL frame and an NFL arm and definitely flashes on tape, but he’s nothing more than a late round developmental prospect.

Jefferson’s favorite target was Reuben Randle. He had 3 catches for 76 yards and a touchdown and was a frequent red zone target of Jefferson. He had 2 touchdowns deflected and almost scored on another play that he was just short of the goal line on. Conceivably, he could have had 4 touchdowns in this game. On the season, the 6-4 junior has 50 catches for 904 yards and 8 touchdowns on a conservative offense and definitely flashes on top, but I still contend he would be best off returning to school for his senior year. Consistency is a problem for him and he’s far from a finished product.

 

Matt Light Patriots

stevenlourie Uncategorized

 

The Patriots didn’t want to have rookie Nate Solder protecting Tom Brady’s blindside this year, after a lockout shortened offseason, as they chase another Super Bowl, and with Matt Light interested in returning they didn’t have to. However, this is a two year deal worth 7 million in guarantees, up to 12 million total. Considering they probably only plan to use him for one more year, they really overpaid.

Grade: C

 

Mikel Leshoure Scout

stevenlourie Uncategorized

 

Running Back

Illinois

6-0 232

Draft board overall prospect rank: #23

Draft board overall running back rank: #2

Overall rating: 84 (late 1st)

40 time: 4.56

4/23/11: Mark Ingram is the best running back in this class. I think that’s the general consensus. However, Mikel Leshoure is the reason he could slip in the first round. A lot of people think that you can get better value with Leshoure in the 2nd round than you can with Ingram in the first, especially in the wake of the concerns over Ingram’s here. I would have to agree with that and given the devaluation of the running back position in recent years, that could hurt Ingram’s stock.

But enough about Ingram, let’s move onto Leshoure and what makes him a dynamic running back. He burst onto the scene this year with 281 carries for 1697 yards and 17 touchdowns. Now, burst onto the scene should give you some pause. He’s basically a one yard wonder. He rushed for just 734 yards on just 108 carries in 2009.

However, one year wonders at running backs are less of a concern that one year wonders at other positions because of how short a running back’s shelf life is. Running backs seem to have a total amount of career carries where they just hit the wall and fall off the face of the Earth and carries in college factor into that. Look at Kevin Smith. He was a great college back, but he was overworked and now he can’t stay healthy in the NFL. So, while his lack of experience is a bad thing, it’s also a bit of a good thing. He only has 424 career college carries on his tires. That’s not a lot.

Plus, given that he rushed for an average of 6.8 yards per carry in 2009, I think it’s safe to say that he didn’t lack talent. He just needed an opportunity. Look at a guy like former Illinois running back Rashard Mendenhall. He was a bit of a one year wonder in college, but he was so impressive in that one year that he went in the first and now he’s one of the ten best running backs in the league. Leshoure is similar to Mendenhall in that way.

Leshoure is a big, explosive running back who runs with great pad level and doesn’t go down easily. He’s tough and well rounded and could be a feature back at the next level. He wasn’t a huge part of the passing attack at Illinois, but he’s shown good hands in drills so he can be a factor on 3rd down in the NFL. He also hasn’t fumbled once in his college career on 424 carries. That’s pretty impressive.

He has great vision and he’s elusive, but he isn’t overly fast. He’s not an outside the tackles runner. He’s a north/south runner that’s going to fit best in a cold weather city, much like where he played his college ball. Character concerns are minor with him, but present. He got into a fight with a teammate in 2008 and in 2009 he was suspended for violating a team rule. There have also been some concerns that he’s got attitude problems and he’s not a great locker room guy. It is worth noting that he has been praised for getting his act together before this season, improving his attitude and his work ethic, and that’s shown on the field this year.

NFL Comparison: Larry Johnson

 

 

Nate Ness

stevenlourie Uncategorized

 

By Paul Smythe 

One thing the Miami Dolphins don’t have a shortage of is young, talented CBs.

The most recent to emerge is Nate Ness, who had a very good outing during the Dolphins preseason game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Saturday.

He made a bunch of great plays, including a stop on 4th and goal late in the game. And, while the preseason doesn’t matter that much, the Dolphins would have probably lost if Ness hadn’t made the play.

Along with that play he also forced two fumbles and had multiple tackles and broken up passes. Ness showed he is a very good player with a lot of potential. My hope is that he stays with the team, and hopefully works his way up.

Miami already has 4 very good cornerbacks, so there is a possibility that Ness doesn’t even make the team. But, I think it is only a very slight possibility. In all likelihood Ness continues to do well and makes the cut. 5 cornerbacks may seem like a lot to some people, but it is necessary because injury problems can really drain a team.

Dolphins fans don’t have to be really concerned when one of our starting CBs goes down now, because we will have others to take their place and do just as well.

Anyways, Ness looks really good, and you should definitely watch out for him. He has already improved a lot from playing on the practice squad last year. He can (and will) only get better from here.

http://www.dolphinshout.com

2011 4th Round

stevenlourie Uncategorized

 

1-16 17-32 2nd Round 3rd Round 4th Round 5th Round 6th Round 7th Round

 

98. Carolina Panthers- TE Jordan Cameron (USC)

Jeremy Shockey is not the long term answer at tight end for them. I’m not even sure he’s the short term answer. Jordan Cameron’s stock is on the rise and he could go in the 3rd round like Jimmy Graham, another former basketball player turned tight end, did last year. Graham went to New Orleans and backed up Jeremy Shockey for a year. Cameron could do the same this year.

99. Seattle Seahawks- OT Jah Reid (UCF)

More offensive line help for the Seahawks. Russell Okung is a stud young left tackle, but they need something opposite him. They were lost in pass protection when he was hurt last year.

100. Buffalo Bills- WR Tandon Doss (Indiana)

More help for Ryan Fitzpatrick. Lee Evans is at the point where his salary exceeds his production value so he could be cut. Steve Johnson is a solid #1 receiver, but they need something opposite him. James Hardy never panned out as a 2009 2nd round pick.

101. Cincinnati Bengals- RB DeMarco Murray (Oklahoma)

Cedric Benson is a free agent and after averaging 3.5 YPC and getting arrested in his contract year, he could easily not be brought back. Besides, Benson turns 29 mid season and is coming off of back to back 300+ carry seasons. Another back in the mix wouldn’t hurt even if they did bring him back, especially one with amazing pass catching ability like DeMarco Murray.

102. Cleveland Browns- OLB Quan Sturdivant (North Carolina)

There isn’t really anyone who stands out amongst Cleveland’s group of linebackers other than D’Qwell Jackson, who is a talented player, but injury prone. Sturdivant can play all 3 linebacker positions in Cleveland’s new 4-3 and he’s a good value at this point.

103. Arizona Cardinals- G John Moffitt (Wisconsin)

More offensive line help for a Cardinals offensive line that allowed 50 sacks last year.

104. Philadelphia Eagles- S Jaiquawn Jarrett (Temple)

Quintin Mikell is a free agent and it doesn’t look like he’ll be back. The Eagles have shown a lot of interest in Jarrett, a local kid and a rising prospect.

105. Houston Texans- S Deunta Williams (North Carolina)

The Texans are likely moving Glover Quin to free safety. In case that doesn’t work out, they add Williams here. Williams is a good prospect and would have been a 2nd round pick if it weren’t for some injury concerns. The Texans will take the risk here in the 4th, where he’s well worth it.

106. Minnesota Vikings- CB Kendric Burney (North Carolina)

Antoine Winfield is 34 this offseason. Cedric Griffin can’t stay healthy. Chris Cook disappointed as a rookie. They could definitely add another cornerback into the mix.

107. Detroit Lions- S DeAndre McDaniel (Clemson)

CC Brown started several games for them at safety. Yes, that CC Brown.

108. San Francisco 49ers- CB Richard Sherman (Stanford)

Nate Clements is overpaid, old, and injury prone. He will either be cut or take a pay cut and move to safety. Either way, they’ll need a new corner opposite Shawntae Spencer. Jim Harbaugh reaches right into San Francisco’s backyard and takes Sherman, who he coached at Stanford.

109. Tennessee Titans- WR Denarius Moore (Tennessee)

Teams that spend first rounders on quarterbacks often use their next pick on help for him. Moore gives them that. Kenny Britt has character problems. Nate Washington is best off in the slot, where he thrived in Pittsburgh. 2010 3rd round pick Damian Williams is still developing. Moore has the upside to become a starter for this team. He’s a risk, but the Titans like taking risks and Moore, who has amazing athleticism and dominated down the stretch last year for Tennessee, could be worth the risk.

110. Dallas Cowboys- RB Jordan Todman (Connecticut)

They have more pressing needs, but Marion Barber probably isn’t going to be back next year and Todman is way too good to pass on here. He could end up being the lead back that Felix Jones is having trouble becoming.

111. New England Patriots- RLB Ricky Elmore (Arizona)

This pick completes the trade where Miami moved up in the 2nd to take Colin Kaepernick. Elmore’s not the most athletic kid, but he’s productive, with 21 sacks in the last 2 years and he’s got a great motor. Elmore says it’s his life dream to play for the Patriots and that he worships Tedy Bruschi. The Patriots will love a player like him, needing help at rush linebacker where Tully Banta Cain led the way with a mere 5 sacks last year.

112. St. Louis Rams- TE DJ Williams (Arkansas)

The Rams need to bring in a true pass catching tight end for Sam Bradford. No, Michael Hoomanawanui doesn’t count, no matter how cool his last name is.

113. Oakland Raiders- C Kristofer O’Dowd (USC)

More help on the interior line for Raiders. They really need a new center.

114. Jacksonville Jaguars- OLB Ross Homan (Ohio State)

2 of their 3 starting linebackers from 2010 are free agents and even if both are resigned, Homan is a nice depth player with good versatility and a high motor kid who would thrive on special teams. He fits what the Jaguars look for in a player, strong motor, blue collar, productive in college.

 

115. San Francisco 49ers- NT Sione Fua (Stanford)

Jim Harbaugh grabs another Stanford kid. The 49ers might not be willing to give Aubrayo Franklin the contract he wants, so Fua is a backup plan and provides good depth at all 3 positions on their 3-4 line even if they do resign Franklin.

116. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- OLB Lawrence Wilson (Connecticut)

They’ll look for either one or two outside linebacker upgrades this offseason depending on how they feel about Dekoda Watson, a talented 7th round rookie who fits their scheme like a glove.

117. New York Giants- OLB KJ Wright (Mississippi State)

They went inside linebacker in the first and now they go outside linebacker. Wright can hopefully become the player they thought Clint Sintim would be when they drafted him in the 2nd round in 2009.

118. Kansas City Chiefs- S Tyler Sash (Iowa)

Eric Berry will be a starter at safety for a longtime, but they need a safety opposite him. Sash is a very good value at this point.

119. Indianapolis Colts- WR Vincent Brown (San Diego State)

The Colts normally only carry 5 wide receivers and they have 5 under contract for 2011, but Austin Collie and/or Anthony Gonzalez could be cut in Training Camp for health reasons. Besides, it might be in their best interest to carry a 6th receiver next year in case one or both of them get hurt again. Plus, Reggie Wayne is a free agent in 2012 and the two sides are far apart on any sort of long term deal for the soon to be 32 year old.

120. Philadelphia Eagles- OT Jason Pinkston (Pittsburgh)

How do you allow 50 sacks when Michael Vick is your quarterback? Pinkston can play right tackle or right guard for them, both of which are need positions.

121. Jacksonville Jaguars- S Ahmad Black (Florida)

More secondary help for the Jaguars. They need two new safeties this offseason and Gene Smith will like Black’s hustle and character.

122. Buffalo Bills- MLB Kelvin Sheppard (LSU)

They’re thin at the 3-4 middle linebacker spot and Sheppard provides good depth and a good value at this point.

123. Baltimore Ravens- MLB Nate Irving (NC State)

Ray Lewis will start to decline eventually…right…right…right. Besides, it’s not like they have had a consistent contributor next to him since Bart Scott followed Rex Ryan to New York.

124. Atlanta Falcons- RB Jacquizz Rodgers (Oregon State)

Michael Turner is getting up there in age so Rodgers helps take some of the load off of him. They have Jason Snelling as a backup, but he’s too similar to Turner to be a true compliment. Rodgers’s speed compliments Turner and Snelling well and gives them a big playmaker that their offense desperately needs. He also is a better pass catcher and a 3rd down back.

125. New England Patriots- G Justin Boren (Ohio State)

They have to draft a guard at some point. Logan Mankins isn’t resigned long term and Stephen Neal has retired. I don’t know if they can count on Dan Connolly for too long and Boren has the potential to become a future starter at guard out of the mid rounds, not an uncommon thing.

126. New York Jets- RLB Ugo Chinasa (Oklahoma State)

The Jets take their replacement for Jason Taylor here, in the form of the extremely athletic Ugo Chinasa. Rex Ryan might think he can coach the best out of Chinasa.

127. Chicago Bears- RB Kendall Hunter (Oklahoma State)

The Bears were at their best last year when they were a run heavy team. Having a backup that can average more than 2.4 yards per carry (Chester Taylor) to team up with Matt Forte would make their running attack even more powerful.

128. Pittsburgh Steelers- MLB Colin McCarthy (Miami)

James Farrior just turned 36 so the forward thinking Steelers will be looking at potential replacements in the 2011 NFL Draft.

129. Green Bay Packers- 3-4 DE Lawrence Guy (Arizona State)

They need some depth at 3-4 end. Johnny Jolly recently got arrested while he was already suspended indefinitely. Cullen Jenkins is likely gone as a free agent.

130. Tennessee Titans- C Jake Kirkpatrick (TCU)

The reason Chris Johnson “struggled” last year, by his standards, was not so much that he was tired from his 2000 yard season in 2009, but rather their poor interior blocking. They’ll look at centers and guards in the mid rounds, where you often can might solid guard and centers.

131. Green Bay Packers- CB DeMarcus Van Dyke (Miami)

Van Dyke doesn’t fill an obvious need for them, but they did start running out of cornerbacks against the Steelers and Charles Woodson won’t be around forever. Van Dyke represents best available for a team that loves best available.

 

Go on to 5th Round 

HTML Comment Box is loading comments…

 

 

2011 Week 10 Rankings

stevenlourie Uncategorized

 

32(32). Miami Dolphins 1-7

They’re still lower than the Colts because I think, at the end of the day, the Dolphins will have 1 win and the Colts will have two. Look at the rest of the Dolphins’ schedule. Their only realistic chance at another win is this week against Washington in Miami, but remember, the Dolphins are 1-10 at home in the last 2 years.

31(31). Indianapolis Colts 0-9

Meanwhile, the Colts have home games against Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Carolina left, as well as a trip to Jacksonville. They can find 2 wins in there. If they lose to Jacksonville this week, then we can talk about this team potential as a 1 or 0 win team, but I think they win this week. Blaine Gabbert might actually be worse than Curtis Painter and Indianapolis’ fierce pass rush will actually serve some purpose this week as the Jaguars don’t have the offense to pull away from them.

30(29). St. Louis Rams 1-7

Brandon Lloyd has brought their number of legitimate pass catchers up from 0 to 1, so hopefully they can keep him. I know they lost last week to Arizona, but that was more on their special teams. The Rams definitely look better in their past two games as they’ll only get better as Sam Bradford gets healthier and more in sync with Brandon Lloyd. Remember, they have games against Arizona, Seattle (2), and Cleveland left, plus a week 17 home game against San Francisco, who could be resting its starters. They could still get 3-4 wins.

29(26). Arizona Cardinals 2-6

The Cardinals are now 1-0 with John Skelton and 1-6 with Kevin Kolb. Quarterback controversy? Probably not since John Skelton didn’t even play well in a special teams led win against the lowly Rams, which featured John Skelton taking TWO safeties. Something tells me they won’t have the same kind of luck this week against a probably pissed off Philadelphia team.

28(28). Washington Redskins 3-5

I like their chances this week in Miami because Miami sucks at home and sucks in general, but will they get another win after that? Maybe one divisional one, maybe one random one, maybe, but this team still looks like a 5 win team that would be right in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes if they didn’t randomly get out to a hot start.

27(24). Seattle Seahawks 2-6

I literally stared at my computer screen for 10 minutes to come up with something interesting to say about the Seahawks. I can’t. They’re boring and they suck.

26(30). Jacksonville Jaguars 2-6

On bye last week.

25(27). Carolina Panthers 2-6

On bye last week.

24(22). Cleveland Browns 3-5

I would rant about how much the Browns suck, but this guy does a better job of it. They may have 3 wins, but they were against the Dolphins, the Colts, and the Seahawks. They’re averaging 5.7 yards per pass and 3.1 yards per carry and that’s not including the 20 sacks that Colt McCoy has taken. Their defense is only slightly better by default, but considering they couldn’t tackle at all last week, that’s more of a knock on their putrid offense than anything.

23(21). Kansas City Chiefs 4-4

The Chiefs were exposed last week as overrated frauds by losing by 28 at home to Miami. They’ve won 4 games against the 2-6 Vikings, the 0-9 Colts, the Jason Campbell-less Raiders, and the choking Chargers by a combined 101-61, but lost to the Bills, Lions, Chargers, and Dolphins by a combined 140-30. Ouch!

22(23). Minnesota Vikings 2-6

On bye last week.

21(19). Tennessee Titans 4-4

4 games ago, the Titans looked like they could win the division. Now, after blowout losses to Houston and Pittsburgh, as well as a win over the lowly Colts, and a home loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, the Titans are at 4-4 and look like one of the worst 4-4 teams in the league. Their 4 wins are against Indianapolis, Baltimore, Cleveland, and Denver. Baltimore is the only good team in the bunch and they also lost to Jacksonville, who, by the way, beat Tennessee. It’s now looking like the Titans might not even win against Carolina next week.

20(20). Oakland Raiders 5-4

The Raiders’ win over the Chargers is not as impressive as it seems. The Chargers just aren’t good anymore. Too many things wrong at once. The Chargers remind me if the 2010 Cowboys, finally bottoming out after years of underachieving under an awful head coach. But the Raiders are still in first place in this crappy division so there’s that. I just don’t trust Carson Palmer. One good game against an overrated Chargers division doesn’t change that.

19(10). San Diego Chargers 4-5

I have a feeling the Chargers just aren’t going to hit midseason form. Philip Rivers has never struggled like this before. I think we’re past wondering if he’s injured or not. We should be wondering if he died and was replaced with a look alike. I’m serious. He does know he doesn’t have to force it into double coverage on every throw right? Their 4 wins, Miami (1-7), Denver (pre-Tebow), Kansas City (an overrated 4-4), Minnesota (pre-Ponder).

18(25). Denver Broncos 3-5

Where are all the Tebow haters now? A young quarterback can’t have one bad game. His stats aren’t pretty, but he can pick up chunks of yardage on the ground, make clutch throws, open things up for his running game, and most importantly, motivate his teammates. He’s not the best passer and he’s not going to put up amazing passing stats, but he’ll win you games. The Broncos’ division sucks. I have them winning the division. Calling it now.

17(16). Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-4

2 games ago they sat atop the division, at 4-2, holding the tiebreaker over New Orleans and Atlanta. Now they’re 4-4 and New Orleans has evened the score and jumped out to a game and a half lead. I don’t think they’ll catch them for the division and even worse, the Buccaneers dropped one to the Bears, which gives the Bears the tiebreaker in the very possible situation that these two teams finish tied for the 6th and final playoff spot in the NFC. Needless to say, their game this week against Houston is huge.

 

16(17). Dallas Cowboys 4-4

The division still isn’t out of reach for them. The Giants may have a 2 game lead, but the Cowboys do play them twice before the season is over and the Giants, who normally struggle in the 2nd half of the season, have a brutal 2nd half schedule this year. However, they need to get their act together. One week they get destroyed by the Eagles, who were proven to be frauds the very next week by Chicago, and then they don’t look very good in beating the Seahawks. The Seahawks are a terrible road team that deserved to lose by more than 10 points given how many more yards the Cowboys had, but the Cowboys shot themselves in the foot countless times and let them hang around. Now Miles Austin is out with an injury.

15(9). Philadelphia Eagles 3-5

The Eagles get better as the season goes on and the Giants have a brutal 2nd half schedule and tend to struggle in the 2nd half anyway, but a 3 game lead is a lot to make up. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Eagles still won this division, but they have to count on the Giants getting at least 9 wins which means the Eagles will have to go 6-2 from here on out. They have the talent and Andy Reid coached teams do get better as the season goes on, but I’m putting New York slightly ahead of them for now. Needless to say, their matchup in a few weeks against the Giants, who beat them earlier, is going to be huge. If they lose that one, I think their season is over.

14(18). New York Giants 6-2

Since Tom Coughlin took over in 2004, the Giants are 47-17 (.734) in the first half of the season and 24-32 (.429) in the 2nd half of the season. They started 6-2 last year and missed the playoffs at 10-6. Now they have a brutal 2nd half schedule, @ San Francisco, vs. Philadelphia, @ New Orleans, vs. Green Bay, @ Dallas, vs. Washington, @ NY Jets, vs. Dallas. I wouldn’t give them the division yet because I could definitely see them finishing 9-7, but with the Eagles losing last week and the Cowboys struggling to find consistency, the Giants have to be the favorites at this point. Even 9 wins could win this division.

13(13). Cincinnati Bengals 6-2

I’m conservatively ranking the Bengals here. In 2 weeks, they could be a lot lower or a lot, lot higher with Pittsburgh and Baltimore next on their schedule. The Bengals have yet to beat a proven veteran team, but that doesn’t mean they can’t. It wouldn’t surprise me to see them beat either Pittsburgh and/or Baltimore, but for now, I’m ranking those two veteran squads above the Bengals in the division and making the Bengals prove themselves.

12(6). Buffalo Bills 5-3

Losing at home to the Jets obviously was a big hit to their division title and even playoff hopes. The Patriots and the Jets are both more veteran than them and the Jets flat out destroyed them last week. Is there room for 3 AFC East teams in the playoffs? Maybe, but the Bills will have to play better than they did last week to deserve one.

11(15). Chicago Bears 5-3

The Bears have come a long way since losing to the Lions in Detroit 3 games ago. Since then, they’ve won 3 straight beating two legitimate teams, Tampa Bay and Philadelphia, in the process. Their other win was a 29 point win over a Minnesota team that hasn’t lost by more than 7 all season, with the exception of that game. Their offensive line has been fixed and Earl Bennett is healthy and looks like a legitimate consistent target for Jay Cutler. We’ve seen this from them before and they’ve come back to prove their believers wrong, but right now I trust them more than I trusted them last year. I expect them to enact their revenge on the Lions this week in Chicago.

10(12). New York Jets 5-3

Like the Bears, the Jets are another team that a lot of people wrote off at 2-3, but with wins over the Dolphins, Chargers, and Bills, the Jets are looking better. The reason they’re higher than the Bears is because their early seasons struggles could be tied to injuries, particularly to center Nick Mangold so unless he gets hurt again, I don’t think there are any chances of them relapsing, whereas Chicago doesn’t have me so convinced. Like the Bears, the Jets have a chance for a revenge game this week against New England, but Brady and company haven’t lost 3 straight since 2002 so forgive me if I don’t like their chances. However, if they win that one, they’re in the driver’s seat in the division.

9(14). Atlanta Falcons 5-3

Atlanta was on bye again last week as they played the Colts, so there’s nothing to talk about here. Obviously, their game with the Saints this week is huge. They’ve already lost to the Buccaneers so if they lose to the Saints, they’re 0-2 against legitimate playoff contenders in their division. This game is especially important because it’s at home. If they lose this one, I really don’t like their chances to settle the score in New Orleans later this season, even though they won their last year.

8(8). Detroit Lions 6-2

On bye last week.

7(7). Houston Texans 6-3

The Texans have won 3 in a row for just the 4th time in Matt Schaub’s career, but who did they beat? The Titans, the Browns, and the Jaguars. Not exactly the most talented group of teams. Still, they’re in the drivers’ seat in the awful AFC South and should be able to sleep walk to the division title. Honestly, if they don’t win another game, there’s still a 50/50 shot they win this division. Who else wins more than 6 games? Tennessee? Maybe? I’m interested to see how they response to that this week in Tampa Bay. This could be a classic let down game for this team.

6(3). Pittsburgh Steelers 6-3

I’m ranking Pittsburgh below Baltimore because they’ve lost twice to them. They played well enough to win against Baltimore last week, but they didn’t win because Joe Flacco was just a little bit better. This week they can take out their angry on the young Bengals, at least they better hope they can. The Bengals already have a better record than them somehow. They don’t want to lose head to head to them on top of that.

5(11). Baltimore Ravens 6-2

This looks like a classic, play to the level of the competition type team. They lose to Tennessee and Jacksonville and barely beat Arizona, but they’ve beaten Houston, Pittsburgh (twice), and the Jets. The good news for them is there are no bad teams in the playoffs, which looks like where they’re heading after securing the tiebreaker over the Steelers. The bad news is, we still have yet to see back to back good performances by Joe Flacco all season. Seriously, look up his stats. You don’t win a Super Bowl if you’re that inconsistent.

4(5). New Orleans Saints 6-3

The Saints didn’t prove a whole lot by beating Tampa Bay at home. This team still lost to St. Louis at St. Louis. They also lost to Tampa Bay in Tampa Bay and barely beat Carolina in Carolina. Last year, they lost road games to Seattle and Arizona and had trouble on the road against Cincinnati and San Francisco. This still isn’t a good road team and the road to the Super Bowl appears to go through Lambeau Field and possibly Candlestick Park in the NFC. The Saints have a chance to prove themselves on the road this week in Atlanta, where Matt Ryan has a career 22-4 record (2-1 against the Saints).

3(4). San Francisco 49ers 7-1

I wanted to put the 49ers 2nd, but there should be some sort of rule about putting an Alex Smith quarterbacked team 2nd. That just feels illegal. On top of that, the 49ers haven’t beat a good veteran team yet. Their 3 most impressive wins were against Detroit, Cincinnati, and Tampa Bay, 3 young teams. They have their first good, veteran test this week as the New York Giants come to town.

2(2). New England Patriots 5-3

Yes, they’re still here. To everyone who is writing them off, what happened last time you did that? Exactly. Look at their remaining schedule and tell me how they lose more than 1 more game. They have the Jets, the Chiefs, the Eagles, the Colts, Redskins, the Dolphins, the Broncos, and the Bills. I see 3 legitimate football teams on there, the Jets, Eagles, and Bills. However, losing to the Jets would mean losing 3 in a row, something they haven’t done since 2002, and losing to the Bills would mean going 0-2 against a divisional opponent, something they haven’t done since 2000, when Brady wasn’t even the quarterback. Besides, how good are the Eagles even?

Besides, after the Packers, there is no clear cut #2 team in the league this year. You can make arguments for a number of teams, but you can make counter arguments against all of them. The Ravens, their quarterback hasn’t had back to back good games all year and they’ve lost to Jacksonville and Tennessee. The Steelers, they lost to the Ravens, twice. The Patriots, they lost to the Steelers. The 49ers, they haven’t beaten a good veteran team. The Saints, they suck on the road. The Texans, do you really trust Matt Schaub? The Lions, they’re inexperienced and 1-2 in their last 3. I’m putting the Patriots at #2 because they have the most proven head coach/quarterback combo of the bunch. That’s the best tiebreaker I can come up with.

1(1). Green Bay Packers 8-0

Of course none of that really matters because the Packers are so much better than everyone. Yes, they have given up 69 points in their only two games against legitimate high powered offenses, but when you’re on pace to score the most points in a season (550) of any team other than the 2007 New England Patriots or the 1998 Minnesota Vikings, you don’t need to play a ton of defense. Aaron Rodgers is on pace to go 384-530 (72.5%) for 5238 yards (10.0 YPA), and 48 touchdowns to 6 picks. Quarterbacks aren’t supposed to do that. Besides, thanks to the lockout, there are fewer elite teams that any season in recent memory. You can make an argument the Packers are the only one. I listed the flaws with all of the teams under the Patriots’ write up. That’s not normal.

 

2011 Week 8 Picks

stevenlourie Uncategorized

 

Spreads/Lines on betonline.com

Last week overall: 6-7

Last week ATS: 3-9-1 (-2135/-19 units)

Overall picks: 65-38 (.631)

Upset Picks: 2-1 (+625/+2 units)

ATS Picks: 44-54-5 (-3505/-25 units)

Survivor picks: 6-1 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI)

Upset picks: 11-16 (+770/-1 unit) 

Recap: I sucked. Again. Trust me, I’m not enjoying this. So I did some research to try to figure out why I’m doing so badly this year. This is what I found. Excluding Carolina (an outlier at 5-2 ATS), 6 teams have .325 or worse winning percentages. These 6 teams are covering at a 25.6% rate. This might not surprise you. Those teams suck. However, last year, there were 6 teams with .325 or worse winning percentages. They covered at a 35.8% rate. This is a significant difference.

If we continue to look at teams with .375 winning percentages or worse, excluding Carolina, there are 9 teams with .375 winning percentages or worse. They are covering at a rate of 30.4%. Last year, there were 11 such teams, excluding Detroit (an outlier at 12-4 ATS). They covered at a rate of 39.8%. It seems like the lockout and/or the new rules cutting the amount of organized team activities have really hurt the bad teams and made them even worse.

This explains at lot as I found that I am betting on teams with a winning percentage of .325 or worse 53.9% of the time and teams with a winning percentage of .375 or worse 49.1% of the time. Seeing as these teams are covering at rates of 25.6% and 35.8% respectively, this totally explains why I’m losing so much money.

I really need to stop betting on teams like Indianapolis, St. Louis, Miami, Arizona, Minnesota, and Jacksonville (all worse than .325), unless I have a really good reason to. The same goes for teams like Philadelphia, Seattle, and Denver (all worse than .375), though to a lesser extent. I hope my commitment to changing that shows through in my picks this week and I hope even more than I make money this week. Let’s go.

Baltimore Ravens 31 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against spread: Baltimore Ravens -13 (-105) 3 units (-315)

Baltimore looked awful last week against Jacksonville, losing 12-7 and not managing to get a first down until the 3rd quarter. However, in spite of that, I was excited to bet on Baltimore this week. Last week was Baltimore’s 3rd stink bomb offensive performance of the year. Their offense sucked against Tennessee. Their offense sucked against the Jets, though the defense bailed them out. Their offense sucked against Jacksonville.

They haven’t had two good offensive performances in a row. But they haven’t had two bad ones either. Flacco has thrown for 300+ yards in the other 3 games. John Harbaugh is 5-1 ATS as a head coach after a loss as a favorite. He is very good at getting his team turned around. You could even see it after halftime. The team played much better after Harbaugh yelled at them in that locker room.

Baltimore has also played much better at home. They’re 3-0 at home and they’ve won by double digits in each of their 3 home games beating quality teams like the Jets, the Steelers, and the Texans. John Harbaugh is 7-3 ATS as double digit favorites in his career. I couldn’t see any reason why the Ravens wouldn’t be able to beat the lowly Cardinals by at least 10 in this one, especially given that the Cardinals are traveling 3 time zones to play a 1 PM ET start on the East Coast. Also, the Cardinals are 1-5 and fit the mold of a crappy team and crappy teams, with the exception of Carolina, only cover at about a 30% clip this season. Making Arizona even crappier, Chris Wells is expected to miss this game with injury.

However, this line makes no sense. Did the odds makers watch Monday’s game? I had this line projected at -13 before that game. I was expecting -10 after that game, but we still got -13. There’s no line value here at all. I was hoping to get Baltimore cheap at -10 and take them or 4 or 5 units. Instead, I’m putting 3 units on them at -13.

Carolina Panthers 31 Minnesota Vikings 24

Pick against spread: Carolina -3 (-120) 2 units (-240)

I knew Donovan McNabb was bad, but I didn’t think he was this bad. Ever since Christian Ponder has become the starter, this team has played so much better. Ponder hasn’t put up the flashy numbers, but he’s made smart decisions, moved the chains with his feet when necessary, and most importantly, energized his teammates, something McNabb was incapable of doing.

The Vikings covered last week against the Packers as big underdogs at home and now go on the road to Carolina. This line says these two teams are equal, but I don’t see it as so. I think Carolina is noticeably better and this line should have been -4.5 at least. Carolina has been underrated all season ATS, part of how Cam Newton has been able to go 5-1-1 ATS, just like Sam Bradford went 9-3 ATS in his first 12 last year as a rookie before Vegas caught up. Judging by this line, it doesn’t appear that Vegas has caught up.

Yes, what Minnesota did last week was impressive, hanging with Green Bay like that, but Carolina did the same thing this season. Carolina also has a better record and they’re in a nice spot, albeit a very specific one. Teams in their 2nd straight home game before a bye are 39-28 ATS since 2002. They’ll be focused here. I’m putting a small bet on Carolina.

Houston Texans 17 Jacksonville Jaguars 12

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +9.5 (-110) 3 units (-330)

Houston got a huge win last week, beating the Titans as underdogs by 34 points and taking control of the division lead in the process. However, as far as this week goes, the fact that they won last week might not be the good thing. Under Gary Kubiak, the Texans are 12-20 ATS after a win. In fact, in general, double digit favorites after a win as a divisional dog are 4-7 ATS since 2002, 17-23 ATS as 7+ favorites. 9.5 isn’t double digits, but it’s close enough.

Meanwhile, Jacksonville also got a win last week, but it was an ugly one beating Baltimore 12-7. The Jaguars have still only scored over 14 points just once this season, in a 30-20 loss to Cincinnati, but they have the type of defense that allows them to keep themselves in the game. They’re also very good in this situation. Under Jack Del Rio, the Jaguars are 6-2 ATS as divisional dogs of 7+. Jacksonville is also in a divisional revenge games here. Road teams trying to avenge a divisional loss of 14+ are 83-64 ATS since 2002

Teams in general fare well as double digit divisional dogs, going 9-4 ATS since 2010. Dogs of 7+ after winning as dogs of 7+ are 10-5 ATS since 2008. This makes sense. Teams that win as big underdogs deserve more respect, but if they’re dogs of 7+ again, they didn’t get it and they tend to cover. Road dogs of 7+ are also 24-15 ATS going into a bye since 2002. Meanwhile, Houston is in the first of two home games as favorites, a situation teams are 22-37 ATS in since 2010.

Jacksonville is 2-5 so they qualify as a bad team. However, the angles are all in their favor and they just won on Monday Night so I feel alright betting them. This isn’t going to be a huge bet or anything, but Jacksonville has the type of defense that can keep them in games, especially if Houston shoots themselves in the foot a lot, which they could easily do given that they’re coming off a huge win and now have a play a team that is seen as hugely inferior to them. Houston isn’t the most disciplined team under Kubiak.

New York Giants 27 Miami Dolphins 13

Pick against spread: NY Giants -10 (+100) 2 units (-200)

The Miami Dolphins are now at 0-6 after blowing a big early lead and losing to Tim Tebow and the Broncos in overtime. Now they go on the road, which should actually be a good thing for them. They’re 17-10 ATS on the road under Sparano as compared to 7-21 ATS at home. They’re also helped by the fact that the Giants could be flat this week. They have New England next week so it’s unlikely they’ll give 100% effort against the lowly Dolphins. Double digit favorites before being underdogs are just 17-26 ATS since 2008.

The Giants are, however, coming off of a bye, which should help them. Double digit favorites off of a bye are 7-3 ATS since 2008, 16-8 ATS since 2002. However, the NFL changed up their bye week rules this year and it seems to be hurting teams as teams off of a bye are just 4-7 ATS this season, though 2-1 ATS as favorites. Assuming good teams aren’t hurt by byes, non-divisional home favorites after a bye are 45-22 ATS since 2002 in the regular season.

This one was a tough one. Miami would seem to be the right side. They’re on the road, where they play well. They’re desperate for a win and the Giants are going to totally overlook them with the Patriots next on their schedule. However, I’m not betting on Miami. Betting on teams like Miami is why I’m in the red this season. Betting on Miami after my big long thing about not betting on terrible teams would just be stupid, especially since JP “Loss Man” Losman could get the start for Miami after being out of the league last week, with Matt Moore and Sage Rosenfels dealing with injuries. Finally, the Giants are 36-21 ATS in the first 8 weeks of the season since Tom Coughlin took over in 2004.

 

 

New Orleans Saints 38 St. Louis Rams 9

Pick against spread: New Orleans -13 (-105) 1 unit (-105)

Sam Bradford is not expected to play this week. As bad as the Rams were with him, they’re even worse without him. They looked absolutely awful against the Cowboys last week and now they get the Saints. The Rams have scored 56 points this season. The Saints scored 62 points last week. Obviously, Vegas took notice to this and made New Orleans 13 point favorites ON THE ROAD. This is the biggest a road favorite has been since Indianapolis was 14 point favorites in St. Louis week 9 of 2009 (Indianapolis covered 42-6).

The Saints have struggled on the road in the past two years. New Orleans is a mere 4-9 ATS on the road in the past 2 seasons. However, there’s no way I’m betting on St. Louis here. St. Louis is absolutely terrible. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if this game was a repeat of Indianapolis 42-6 win in St. Louis week 9 of 2009. I’m not putting a lot on New Orleans because the angles do go against them (poor road team, revenge game with Tampa Bay next week), but I’m putting 1 unit on them.

Tennessee Titans 23 Indianapolis Colts 13

Pick against spread: Tennessee -9 (+100) 1 unit (+100)

This was a tough one. Tennessee is home favorites before being home favorites (Cincinnati coming to town next week). Teams in that situation are 22-37 ATS since 2010. In fact, Tennessee lost in this situation last week. Teams in their 2nd of 3 games as home favorites are 5-13 ATS since 2010. Meanwhile, Indianapolis is in their 3rd straight road game. Teams in their 2nd or 3rd straight road game are 144-108 ATS since 2008, 19-12 ATS in their 2nd straight as road dogs of 7+.

However, Tennessee could be very motivated to win after getting embarrassed at home last week against Houston. Favorites after losing by 21+ as favorites are 19-12 ATS since 2002. Teams are 16-8 ATS after a loss of 21+ as a divisional favorite. Indianapolis has something to prove this week too after losing by 55 (55!) to New Orleans last week. They’re in 2nd straight game as 7+ point underdogs after losing by 21+, a situation teams are 22-14 ATS in since 2008.

They’re getting desperate for a win and should give 110% here in a divisional game after being embarrassed last week, but if Tennessee gives 110% here after being embarrassed last week, they should cover this line. Besides, Indianapolis is a crappy team and crappy teams are especially terrible this year.

Buffalo Bills 27 Washington Redskins 17

Pick against spread: Buffalo -6 (-110) 2 units (+200)

The trends say Washington is the right side. They’re in their 2nd straight road game, a situation teams are 144-108 ATS in since 2008, 54-36 ATS in their 2nd straight as dogs of 3+. Meanwhile, Buffalo is in their 1st of 2 home games, a situation teams are 49-66 ATS in since 2010, 22-37 ATS in their 1st of 2 as home favorites. Buffalo has the Jets coming to town next week. Will they be favorites? I really don’t know, but either way they’re in a bad situation this week. If they’re underdogs next week, this week they are favorites before being divisional underdogs, a situation teams are 46-67 ATS since 2008. Either way, they’re in a bad situation this week.

However, I’m going against all of that. I’m losing money this year. Going strictly on trends is not the best idea. Buffalo is only 2.5 points better than Washington? Huh? Washington sucks. I don’t think Vegas has caught up with that. They’ve fallen 15 slots in my Power Rankings in 2 weeks. They’re in free fall. They no longer have a solid starting quarterback because Rex Grossman imploded and John Beck is John Beck. They’re missing their best runner Tim Hightower and their best wide receiver Santana Moss with injuries.

Buffalo is a solid team that has been underrated by Vegas all year. +6.5 at Kansas City? +9 at home for New England? +3 at home for Philadelphia? They covered in all 3 of those situations and I made a lot of money in those 3 games. I’m betting on them here because I feel they are once again being underrated against an overrated and imploding Washington team. Also, assuming good teams aren’t hurt by byes, non-divisional home favorites after a bye are 45-22 ATS since 2002 in the regular season.

Denver Broncos 23 Detroit Lions 20 Upset Pick (+145)

Pick against spread: Denver +3 (-105) 3 units (-315)

Road favorites before a bye are 14-7 ATS since 2008, but I don’t think Detroit deserves to be road favorites here. They’ve lost back to back games at home and haven’t played a solid 4 quarter game since week 2. They needed big comebacks to beat Minnesota and Dallas week 3 and week 4 and they didn’t impress me that much week 5 against Chicago before losing week 6 to San Francisco and week 7 to Atlanta. They’re also likely missing Jahvid Best in this game again. They’ve become so one dimensional this season as they can’t run or stop the run. Young and one dimensional teams just feel like bad bets on the road, especially when they’re on a losing streak.

Denver hasn’t had a huge home field advantage in recent years because they’ve been terrible, but I really think they’re a lot better with Tebow under center and Denver was once what Qwest Field is today, a very tough place to play because of the environment it’s in. Qwest has a crazy crowd and terrible weather. The Broncos have the mile high altitude advantage, which especially hurts Detroit as they’re so young. A lot of their players haven’t ever played in Denver. The last time the Lions were in Denver was 2003.

Finally, there’s Tim Tebow. The reason I say the Broncos are better with him under center is because of the 5 games he’s played extensively, he’s kept it close in 4, including a game against San Diego that he came into down 16. The one he didn’t keep it close in was against Oakland in his first career start when he was only allowed to throw the ball 16 times even though his starting running back Lance Ball was averaging less than a yard and a half per carry. That game still would have been close if Denver’s defense didn’t give up 39 points.

I don’t have any of trends to support this, but I like Denver to pull the upset. Tebow is a winner and at home and the Lions are reeling, one dimensional, young, and on the road. That’s a very bad spot for them to be in and I like the Broncos chances to make it 3 straight losses for the Lions heading into a much needed bye next week.

New England Patriots 34 Pittsburgh Steelers 24

Pick against spread: New England -2.5 (-125) 4 units (-500)

Ben Roethlisberger is 14-9 ATS in his career as an underdog, but he’s lost in both situations where he was an underdog this year (Baltimore, Houston) and the odds are against him preventing it from being 3 straight losses as an underdog. Nobody is better than Bill Belichick with 2+ weeks to prepare. The last time the Patriots lost a regular season game straight up after a bye or week 1 was week 1 of 2003, 16 straight. The reason this is important is because this line is very small. Helping the Patriots even more, since 2002, regular season road favorites after a bye are a whopping 35-10 ATS.

The Steelers are also in the first of 2 home games, a situation last are 49-66 ATS in since 2010. Finally, the Steelers play the Ravens next week, a big divisional revenge game. They might actually be a little bit more focused on that game than this one because it’s divisional and because it’s a huge revenge game. The Steelers defense isn’t as good as it’s been in previous years. I don’t think the Patriots have any problems here against a defense they torched last year. The Steelers defense doesn’t match up well with the Patriots’ offense.

San Francisco 49ers 27 Cleveland Browns 13 Survivor Pick (6-1 NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI, NO)

Pick against spread: San Francisco -9.5 (+105) 3 units (+315)

This was a tough one because there weren’t a lot of situational angles. San Francisco is coming off of a bye and 7+ point favorites are 16-9 ATS since 2008, but the bye week rules have changed and teams are struggling off of a bye, albeit they are 2-1 ATS as favorites. Assuming good teams aren’t hurt by byes, non-divisional home favorites after a bye are 45-22 ATS since 2002 in the regular season.

I love the type of football the 49ers play. They’re well coached and disciplined and are able to mask their lack of elite talent. If any team is going to come out better after a bye, it’s this one (and the Patriots). They’ve improved every week and Harbaugh is an awesome coach. Also, while Cleveland isn’t 2-4 or worse, they are 3-3 with no quality wins (Indianapolis, Seattle on the road, Miami). They fit the mold of a crappy team somewhat so I’m not going to bet on them.

Seattle Seahawks 26 Cincinnati Bengals 17 Upset Pick (+130)

Pick against spread: Seattle +3 (-120) 5 units

The 12th man in Seattle is notorious. The Seahawks are awesome at home. They’re 24-12 ATS at home since 2007. In that same time period, the Bengals are a mere 8-18 ATS as favorites, 3-7 ATS on the road as favorites. Speaking of the Bengals being favorites…the Bengals are favorites here? Really?

I was expecting this to be around -3 in favor of Seattle. I’d say these teams are fairly equal, plus Seattle has a huge home field advantage. Instead we’re getting Seattle +3. Cincinnati is 6 points better than Seattle? Really? I don’t think so. They haven’t beaten anyone good yet, with the exception of the Bills flat off of a huge win against New England. The Colts were only -7 in Cincinnati and they almost covered. This line is saying that Seattle is 2 points worse than Indianapolis. Seattle won in New York and hung with Atlanta at home. They’re an underrated bunch.

I’m happy to take Seattle at home against a Cincinnati team that struggles as road favorites and doesn’t deserve to be road favorites. Besides, Cincinnati might not get up for “lowly” Seattle as they head to Tennessee next week. Favorites before being underdogs are 60-73 ATS since 2010. I considered maybe this was a trap line, but a large majority of the money right now is on Cincinnati and Vegas hasn’t shifted its line to try to get more people to bet on Seattle, which they would if this was a true trap line.

This is my pick of the week. I know Seattle fits the mold of a crappy team, but I think they’re a little better than their record and Cincinnati is a little worse. I’d say these teams are equal. One thing that might scare people off here is that road favorites in the regular season after a bye are 35-10 ATS since 2002. However, the Bengals didn’t deserve to be road favorites in the first place. Besides, of those 10 losses, two of them were by Marvin Lewis and the Bengals, as opposed to 0 wins.

Philadelphia Eagles 34 Dallas Cowboys 20

Pick against spread: Philadelphia -3.5 (+100) 3 units

Earlier I mentioned that the two coaches I trusted after a bye even with the weird new rules were Bill Belichick and Jim Harbaugh (since the 49ers have gotten better each week). I lied. I trust Andy Reid too. Andy Reid is 13-4 ATS after a bye since taking over in 1999, 10-3 ATS in the regular season. He’s lost one career game after a bye and that was their Super Bowl in 2005 against New England.

Philadelphia was a mess coming out of Buffalo at 1-4, but they beat then division leading Washington before the bye and looked to have fixed a lot of their problems in a must win game. Now, coming out of a bye against a division rival, I expect them to be extra focused in another game that could be considered must win.

Finally, I feel we’re getting line value with Philadelphia. They were so overrated before their win against Washington, but now I feel Vegas is underrated them a bit, or maybe they’re overrating Dallas. Philadelphia and Dallas are not equal at this point. I feel Philadelphia is the better team and they have home field and Andy Reid’s awesome post-bye record on their side. I feel comfortable taking the favorite here.

Philadelphia may technically be a 2-4 or worse team (worse than .375), but like Seattle and probably Denver assuming on the line, I’m betting them here. Philadelphia is better than their 2-4 record would suggest, as is Denver with Tim Tebow, and as is Seattle with a road win over the Giants and a close home loss to Atlanta. Of the 6 teams with records worse than 2-4, excluding Carolina who is an outlier, I bet on 1 of them (Jacksonville), so I definitely did a better job of not betting on crappy teams and I’m betting on Philadelphia, Seattle, and Denver for good reasons.

San Diego Chargers 24 Kansas City Chiefs 12

Pick against spread: San Diego Chargers -3.5 (-105) 2 units

Last week was typical early season San Diego. They blew a big lead and lost a game that they should have won against the inferior Jets. Now they head to Kansas City in a sandwich game situation. They were underdogs last week and lost and next week they play Green Bay, arguably the best team in the league. Teams in that situation are 42-66 ATS since 2008. So why am I picking San Diego?

For one thing, I feel like Kansas City is overrated. They haven’t beaten anyone and I’m not just talking this year, I mean in the past two years. They won 2 games against teams with .500 or better records last year, in 7 tries. Those two wins were the early season Chargers, who later flattened them and got revenge, and the Jaguars with their 3rd string quarterback. Cassel threw for 68 yards in their week 1 fluke win over San Diego last year. This year, they have 3 wins, Minnesota (1-6), Indianapolis (0-7), and the shit show that was the week 7 Oakland Raiders.

People think, the Chiefs have won 3 straight and they won the division last year. They can beat San Diego, which is what this line reflects, but the truth is, they never deserved to win this division last year. They had a cakewalk schedule and sucked against good teams and they still haven’t beaten anyone of note this season.

Also, San Diego is in their 2nd of two road games. Teams in this situation are 144-108 ATS since 2008. Finally, I think last week was the wakeup call loss for San Diego. It’s always tough to predict when this team will make the switch from underachievers to awesome, but it happens every season and I think it’s going to happen this week. I like San Diego here, especially since Kansas City can be considered a crappy team at 3-3 with no quality wins.

LV Hilton Super Contest Picks (16-19 on the season): Seattle +2.5, New England -3, Jacksonville +9.5, San Francisco -8.5, Baltimore -12.5

 

49ers

stevenlourie Uncategorized

AFC South 2011

stevenlourie Uncategorized

Houston Texans 

The Houston Texans have never made the playoffs. They have been trendy sleeper picks for the past few years and have never come through. Some people have sworn off of making them sleepers. I am not one of those people. In fact, this is the first year I can really call Houston one of my sleepers. Peyton Manning… (read more)

Prediction: 12-5 1st in AFC South, lose in AFC Semis

Tennessee Titans

The Titans are cleaning house. Former Head Coach Jeff Fisher is gone after 17 seasons, replaced with Mike Munchak. Vince Young is gone, as is Kerry Collins, who retired. They drafted Jake Locker with the 8th overall pick and signed Matt Hasselbeck to be a stopgap for them until Locker is ready to… (read more)

Prediction: 5-11 3rd in AFC South 

Indianapolis Colts

Peyton Manning had a down season by his standards. He posted his lowest quarterback rating since 2002 (91.9), had his lowest YPA since his rookie season and threw more picks than any season since 2002. However, that doesn’t mean that at age 35, Peyton Manning is a declining player. A lot of his… (read more)

Prediction: 6-10 3rd in AFC South

Jacksonville Jaguars

All the Jaguars had to do was beat the Colts week 15 and they had the division and the playoffs wrapped up with 2 weeks to spare. However, they didn’t beat the Colts week 15. Then they lost week 16. Then they lost week 17. They ended up missing the postseason entirely, finishing 8-8 as the Colts once again… (read more)

Prediction: 2-14 4th in AFC South

 

Anthony Davis

stevenlourie Uncategorized

 

Offensive Tackle

Rutgers

6-5 323

40 time: 5.35

Draft board overall prospect rank: #44

Draft board offensive tackle rank: #6

Overall rating: 79* 

3/15/10: How can I lower his stock if he didn’t do anything? Well simply that, he did nothing. He didn’t show up to his Pro Day, canceling at the last minute (Andre Smith anyone?). He needed to be in shape for his Pro Day after showing up out of shape to The Combine, but he didn’t even show up to the Pro Day, probably because he was even more out of shape. This show he lacks commitment (bailing at the last minute) and work ethic (being out of shape). Neither of those things are good for an offensive lineman. This guy might as well have BUST stamped across his forehead.

2/25/10: How does a 323 pound tackle bench 225 pounds a mere 21 times. There were already questions about his work ethic coming into this week and now the Andre Smith comparisons seem to be becoming more and more accurate. The upside is there, but is anything else?

1/19/10: He’s that Jason Peters type left tackle, overrated against the pass, but a huge mauler against the run. He’s only 20 years old and is still inexperienced at the left tackle position and has huge upside as a pass blocker, but right now the 330 pound tackle’s best attribute is his mauling run blocking and ability to use his large frame to his advantage. 

            6/29/09: Anthony Davis is a massive offensive lineman with huge potential. He’s a natural guard and an excellent run blocker, but Rutgers moved him over to offensive tackle because of his large size. He flawlessly made the transition to offensive tackle, using his long arms and strong upper body to protect Mike Teel, who led one of the Big East’s most electrifying offenses last season. He’s still very raw and struggles with the fundamentals at left tackle, but he’s the type of guy that coaches and GMs will take a chance on at the next level, with his high potential, and also knowing that he can play guard and probably right tackle if he doesn’t pan out at left. He’s a bit slow on his feet, which is expected because of his size. However, speed rushers can still blow past him. He doesn’t always play up to his size and he doesn’t always quite know how to use his size to his advantage. Still, the upside is there and with the way teams have been reaching for left tackles, Davis has a very good shot of going in the first round, assuming he continues to grow and learn the fundamentals of his new position as expected.

NFL Comparison: Andre Smith

*For a breakdown of what this means, click here