Wide Receiver

Kansas

6-3 210

40 time: 4.61

Draft board overall prospect rank: #61

Draft board wide receiver rank: #6

Overall rating: 76*

2/28/10: He’s a talented physical receiver, but receivers who run 4.61 40s normally have a lot of trouble gaining separation in the NFL. I was afraid his time would be bad, but I didn’t expect this bad.

1/17/10: A handful to take down in the open field and a great red zone presence, but he doesn’t run routes well, his 40 time and straight line speed are very poor, and his strong stats came in a weird offense that inflates stats. Still, he can be coached into being a good route runner and if he is, he’ll be a very dangerous wide receiver because he moves and breaks tackles like a running back in the open field. He may be a late bloomer as a wide receiver, but he has good upside and could contribute right away in a big way in a spread style offense.

            11/27/09: Dezmon Briscoe has good production, but two things working against him, a poor 40 time, and no experience in a pro style offense. His route running needs improvement and yes, his timed speed isn’t good, but the both could have been said about Michael Crabtree last year, plus some character issues regarding how much he felt he should have been paid. Briscoe has Crabtree esque skills. He has very good hands and amazing athleticism. He breaks tackles in the open field like a running back and catches the ball at its highest point. He establishes himself in the end zone well and provides a matchup problem for cornerbacks because of his size. He has two years of good production, albeit in a spread style offense, but he does have production and he has production in one of the tougher conferences in college football. He run blocks well for someone in college and can get a lot better because of his elite size. His route running and fundamentals need work, but there’s no denying that he could be an excellent wide receiver in the NFL if he works on things, but he could take some time in the NFL. He has first round potential and deserves to be one of the first wide receivers off the board, but he’ll probably go in the second round because he won’t amaze at the combine and he doesn’t play in a conventional style offense.

NFL Comparison: Justin Gage

 

 

Before reading this, it would be a good idea to brief yourself on my Fantasy Quarterbacks article

Drafting a backup quarterback is an often overlooked, but it can actually have a huge impact on your fantasy team. With any luck, you’ll only have to use your backup quarterback once throughout the season (your QB1’s bye week). How can you make sure that your team doesn’t miss a beat with your QB2 in the lineup? Make sure he has an easy matchup during the bye week of your start. For the sake of this article, we’ll call an easy matchup, Detroit, St. Louis, Kansas City, Miami, Cleveland, Seattle, Oakland, and Jacksonville. All of those 8 teams should be among the worst at stopping the pass this year and with maybe 1 or 2 exceptions, they were all the worst against the pass last year as well. In order to be listed on this list, a player must not be a part of my top 15 quarterbacks. We’re talking about players who are most likely going to be available when it comes time to take your backup QB (11^th-13^th round).

Week 4

QB1s on bye: Tony Romo, Brett Favre

Vs. Seattle: Sam Bradford/AJ Feeley

If you have Romo or Favre, you may be out of luck in terms of using this technique to find a backup. I wouldn’t feel safe with either of these quarterbacks as my backup. Bradford hasn’t won the job, hasn’t played since last October, hasn’t run a pro style offense before, and has a poor supporting cast. Feeley has done decently in the past, but with significantly better supporting casts. As with Bradford, you also don’t know if Feeley will win the job. Stick to drafting a QB2 by traditional means if you have Romo or Favre, and by traditional means, I mean BPA.

Week 5

QB1s on bye: Tom Brady

Vs. Jacksonville: Trent Edwards/Brian Brohm/Ryan Fiztpatrick

Vs. Buffalo: David Garrard

Vs. Cleveland: Matt Ryan

Vs. St. Louis: Matt Stafford

Vs. Detroit: Sam Bradford/AJ Feeley

If you have Brady as your QB1, you’re in luck. This strategy will work perfectly. I would suggest staying away from the mess in Buffalo, as well as Bradford/Feeley and Ryan might not be available as a QB2 in most leagues, but Stafford vs. the Rams looks very promising, and for a safer, more proven choice, try Garrard vs. Buffalo.

Week 6

QB1s on bye: Carson Palmer

Vs. Cleveland: Byron Leftwich/Dennis Dixon

Vs. Oakland: Alex Smith

Vs. Jacksonville: Vince Young

I expect Leftwich to win the job in Pittsburgh for the first 6 weeks (while Big Ben is suspended), but he could be risky. Dixon could beat him out or steal the job by then, and there’s a slim chance Big Ben gets his suspension shortened, in which case Leftwich would be on the bench. If everything goes well, Leftwich should have a decent week against the Browns. Smith vs. Oakland and Vince Young vs. Jacksonville are safer bets though.

Week 7

QB1s on bye: Peyton Manning, Matt Schaub

Vs. Jacksonville: Matt Cassel

Vs. Miami: Byron Leftwich/Dennis Dixon

Vs. St. Louis: Josh Freeman

Vs. Seattle: Matt Leinart/Derek Anderson

Vs. Oakland: Kyle Orton/Brady Quinn/Tim Tebow

I would stay away from the Denver mess, with all of the other options. Orton should be the starter week 7, but there’s no shortage of guys who could steal the job by then, and he doesn’t have a lot to work with in the receiving corps. Leinart and Anderson are risky too, and not just because both aren’t very good. We still don’t know who is the starter there. As I said with Leftwich under the week 6 write up, there’s a lot of variables that would go into him being the starter week 7, and I wouldn’t take the chance this week with two other good options. Cassel’s best game in 2009 was against the Jaguars and I think he should have another solid week against their miserable secondary this year. Freeman vs. St. Louis is still my favorite of the group, but it’s close.

Week 8

QB1s with byes: Jay Cutler, Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, Kevin Kolb

Vs. Kansas City: Trent Edwards/Ryan Fitzpatrick/Brian Brohm

Vs. St. Louis: Jimmy Clausen/Matt Moore

Stay away from the Buffalo mess, but I do expect Moore to still be the starter week 8 against St. Louis and that figures to be promising. John Fox always gives vets the first shot at jobs so unless Moore struggles out of the gate, he’ll still be the guy week 8.

Week 9

QB1s with byes: Donovan McNabb

Vs. Detroit: Mark Sanchez

Vs. Oakland: Matt Cassel

Oakland doesn’t have the best pass defense, but Cassel was 43 for 73 for 457 yards, 1 touchdown and 3 picks against the Raiders last year in two starts. Doesn’t give me a lot of confidence. I’d go with Sanchez if I was a McNabb owner.

Week 10

QB1s with byes: Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers, Jason Campbell

Vs. Detroit: Trent Edwards/Ryan Fitzpatrick/Brian Brohm

Vs. Cleveland: Mark Sanchez

Vs. Miami: Vince Young

Vs. Kansas City: Kyle Orton/Brady Quinn/Tim Tebow

Vs. Seattle: Matt Leinart/Derek Anderson

Vs. St. Louis: Alex Smith

With so many choices, I would rather go with the ones I was pretty sure would have a job on week 10. Sanchez, Young, and Smith all make great choices for owners of Rodgers, Brees, Rivers, and Campbell.

Now, this isn’t the only QB2 strategy. With QB1s you aren’t too sure about (meaning low end QB1s) it is often best to pair them with a high upside QB2, in case your low end QB1 starts playing like a QB2. Chances are, between your low end QB1 and your high upside QB2, you’ll have one functional starter without having to draft a quarterback too early. For the sake of this, I’ll call Carson Palmer, Jason Campbell, Eli Manning, and Kevin Kolb (QBs 12-15) my low end QB1s.

Matt Stafford

Mark Sanchez

Josh Freeman

I am putting these three together. All 3 are 2009 1^st round picks who struggled mightly as rookies. However, that doesn’t mean they’ll be bad this year. We’ve seen plenty of quarterbacks struggle as rookies (see Peyton Manning) and bounce back and have good career. It’s anyone’s guess which of these three will break out this year, but that’s the fun. All 3 of these guys have the upside to have QB1 type seasons. Some notes, Freeman has reportedly put the most work in this offseason, Sanchez has the best supporting cast, and in my opinion Stafford has the best arm. Freeman is also going significantly later than Stafford and Sanchez in fantasy drafts, so he could be a better value.

Alex Smith

Vince Young

I’m grouping this pair together because both are former top 3 draft picks that took over midseason last year and did decently. If either one can start all 16 games and improve their play a bit over last year, he’d be a QB1 type fantasy player. Spread the stats from Young’s 10 starts over 16 games and you get 3006 yards, 16 touchdowns and 10 picks. Spread the stats from Smith’s 10 starts over 16 games and you get 3430 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 18 picks.

Chad Henne

Henne had 274 completions in 451 attempts for 2878 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 14 picks last year, in 13 and a half games. Do some crazy math and you get 331 for 535 for 3411 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 17 picks. How much better could Chad Henne be this year than last year? Take a look at Kyle Orton. Going from Chicago to Denver, Orton went from a mediocre receiving corps, to a mediocre receiving corps plus Brandon Marshall. Orton threw for 830 more yards, 3 more scores, without having any more picks. There are plenty more reasons why Henne should improve with Marshall than was the case with Orton. Henne has a stronger arm to hit Marshall downfield. Henne isn’t learning a new scheme. Henne is going into only his 2^nd year as a starter, 3^rd year in the league, and figures to get better simply from experience. Now, some of you may say, yeah, but Orton threw 76 more times between 2008 and 2009. This is true, but this is also a result of playing with Marshall. When you have a true deep threat, teams tend to pass more. Miami will pass more this year, which means more attempts for Henne. More attempts, more experience, better effectiveness, Henne should definitely be on your high upside list. I don’t have him listed as a top 15 quarterback, but he could end up there and if you have a low end QB1 (McNabb, Eli Manning, Cutler), Henne would make a nice backup.

Matt Moore

Is he unproven? Sure. But against fairly talented competition, Moore had 990 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 1 pick in 5 starts last year. Spread that out 16 games and you get 3169 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 3 picks. I’ll assume the picks will be higher, but still. If he can hold off Clausen for the starting job all year and avoid falling into the same trap Delhomme fell into (chuck the ball deep to Smith every play), he could be a solid fantasy option. And if he loses his job, just drop him and pick up Clausen. Clausen is a very NFL ready player, taking over a good supporting cast. Think Matt Ryan 2008. 

 

 

 

Trade for Lions: Interesting deal. I like Tony Scheffler as a player. However, the Lions just spent the 20^th overall pick on Brandon Pettigrew last year (over a potential franchise left tackle guy like Michael Oher nonetheless). Yes, Pettigrew is a great blocker and Scheffler is a great pass catcher and you can use them in that way, but do you really want to make the 20^th pick in the 2009 draft a run blocking primarily. Plus, they lose Ernie Sims, one of their best defensive players, in the process. Sims probably would have left as a free agent next offseason, but still. It’s not like they’re not losing a talented player. Overall, I don’t like the idea of moving your 2009 1^st round pick tight end to the role of a primary run blocking tight end and losing one of your best defensive players in exchange for an upgrade at the pass catching tight end position and a 7^th rounder.

Grade: C

Deal for Broncos: What is Josh McDaniels doing? He has gotten rid of pretty much every talented player the Broncos had when he came in! Tony Scheffler is no Antonio Gates or Tony Gonzalez, but he had 89 catches for 1194 yards and 8 touchdowns in the two years prior to last year, before his stats dipped (as did everyone’s) in Josh McDaniels’ brilliant offensive scheme. What do the Broncos really accomplish by moving up from the 7^th to the 5^th round (other than once again making me change my mock draft)? Who is Kyle Orton going to throw to next year. Brandon Marshall is gone. Tony Scheffler is gone. This whole offensive unit is going to struggle next year and their defensive unit isn’t too great either. They good be really bad next year.

Grade: D

Deal for Eagles: In the words of Dick Vitale, I absolutely love it! (randomly flails hands in air) I love the idea of getting a starting caliber player for a 5^th round pick. What were they going to do with that 5^th rounder anyway? Ernie Sims is not a star player, but he plays a position that doesn’t require stars for your team to be a good team. Teams can have good defenses with average caliber linebackers and Sims is a huge upgrade at weakside linebacker over anyone on the roster or anyone they could have gotten in the 5^th round of the draft. At the end of the day, this is all about value and adding starting caliber players for cheap, both of which are things I love.

Grade: A

 

Spotlight #1: Vanderbilt MLB Chris Marve

Spotlight #2: Vanderbilt TE Brandon Barden 

1^st quarter

13:34: Marve gets off a block in the middle, good speed to get a tackle on the sideline after a sizeable gain.

12:50: Marve in on a tackle after the outside linebacker blows his gap.

12:12: Marve doesn’t change directions quickly.

11:11: Marve bites on a play fake.

0:11: Barden with a nice pass block.

0:01: Barden with a nice run block.

2^nd quarter

14:39: Marve gives up a completion for a first down. Barely gets the tackle.

14:00: Marve gives up another completion for a first, tackle after the catch.

6:01: Marve blocked off the ball on a good run.

3:41: Barden misses a downfield block.

2:44: Barden catches a 9 yard pass underneath.

0:26: Sean Richardson, Vanderbilt’s strong safety, with already his 9^th tackle of the night. He also has a sack.

3^rd quarter

13:55: Jaye Howard with a sack. The 6-3 310 pound defensive tackle has disappointed thus far this season at nose tackle in Florida’s 3-4 defense. He has really struggled at the point of attack, but he was better as a 4-3 nose last year. In 2010, he had 2.5 sacks and 10 tackles for loss. He looks like a late rounder.

11:56: Marve bites on play fake, allows a big gain of 20 yards near the zone he was supposed to be in.

8:57: Barden catches one in stride, good speed after for 16 yards.

6:44: Barden starts off as a blocker, disengages, gets open short and catches one nicely with a solid run after. He’s got good hands. I don’t know why he doesn’t have more catches on the season.

3:52: Marve has trouble getting off a downfield block.

 

4^th quarter

14:55: Barden with his 4^th catch of the game, open over the middle for 14 yards.

10:45: Barden with a good block to seal a hole on a touchdown run by the quarterback.

10:25: Marve whiffs on a tackle.

9:41: Marve almost allows another completion, but Jordan Reed, the Florida tight end who Marve has struggled with all game, drops the ball.

7:31: Barden with another fantastic block, this time on a pass block.

6:08: Nothing to do with anything, but the refs miss an obvious PI here. The Vanderbilt receiver was blatantly shoved from behind by the defender on a catchable ball, but no call.

5:05: Marve in on a tackle for no gain.

4:34: Marve with a nice stuff for a little gain, 3^rd down stop.

3:55: Marve with a nice spin to shed a block.

3:01: Marve in on a short tackle.

2:13: Jeff Demps hasn’t had a big run yet to this point in this game, but still has 100 yards on 21 carries. Here he gets his big one, 57 yards, touchdown.

0:00: Marve had a very good game against Alabama, leading the charge as a 6-0 240 pound middle linebacker as Vanderbilt held Trent Richardson to one of his worst games of the season, 107 yards on 19 carrries (3^rd lowest rushing total of the year). Vanderbilt has one of the best and most underrated defenses in the country and Marve is a big part of the reason why. However, Marve was not nearly as good in this one. He had just 4 tackles and several poor plays against the run as Vanderbilt allowed 197 yards rushing.

Marve also struggled in coverage. He let Florida receiver Jordan Reed catch 3 passes for 29 yards and allowed another big gain when he vacated his zone on a play action fake. On the season, Marve has 65 tackles, 6 for loss, 1 sack, 1 pick, and 2 pass deflections. He looks like an early day 3 prospect in the 4^th round range unless he can bounce back with a strong finish to his senior season.

Speaking of Florida having a huge game on the ground, Jeff Demps led the way with Chris Rainey out with injury. Demps rushed for 158 yards and 2 scores on 23 carries, including a 57 yard touchdown run late. Demps is small at 5-7 191, but he’s one of the fastest people in the world. A former track star, Demps runs a 10.1 100 meter and can reportedly run a 40 as fast as 4.18.

He’s a bit undersized at 5-7 191, but he did a much better job of running in between the tackles and getting short chunks of yardage in this one. That 57 yarder was his only big gain and take that away, he still had 22 carries for 101 yards and a score against a good Vanderbilt defense. He’s short and tough to find behind the line, but he needs to run with better pad level. He’s not skinny and 191 pounds at 5-7 allows him to be like a Darren Sproles type, short, but stocky and powerful. However, he’s been too boom or bust this season. He wasn’t in this one, but 2 for 10, 3 for 4, 2 for 0, and 8 for 12 yard performances are going to limit this speedster to the late rounds.

Marve isn’t the only draftable prospect on Vanderbilt’s defense. Defensive end Tim Fugger, safety Sean Richardson, and cornerback Casey Hayward are all likely to get drafted at different points in the 2012 NFL Draft. Hayward is the highest rated and could go in the first round. A complete player, Hayward has 36 tackles, 6.5 for loss, 5 interceptions, and 9 pass breakups. Hayward was matched up with Florida’s Andre DuBose at several points in this one. DuBose has beat higher rated cornerbacks like Dre Kirkpatrick and Morris Claiborne for long touchdowns this year, but Hayward didn’t have much trouble with the speedy DuBose. DuBose caught 2 passes for 29 yards and didn’t score. Hayward also had 3 tackles for loss in this one. He’s a first rounder in my book.

The defensive end Tim Fugger is filling up the stat sheet as well, but he’s not the best athlete or the biggest player so he looks like a late rounder. Fugger has 5 sacks and 11 tackles for loss on the season, as well as 3 pass breakups. He got consistent pressure tonight against Florida’s Xavier Nixon, a talented player. He also got a pass deflection. The 6-4 250 pounder looks to be moving up boards and could go in the middle of day 3 as a 3-4 outside linebacker.

Sean Richardson is the final of the 4 good defensive players on Vanderbilt’s underrated squad. The big 6-2 220 pound safety had 10 tackles, 9 in the first half. He has 44 tackles, 5.5 for loss, 2 sacks, and a pass breakup on the season. He’s not great in coverage, but he’s a good run stopper and looks like a mid to late rounder as a strong safety.

On to the offensive side of the ball, I was very impressed by Brandon Barden. Barden had just 6 catches on the season coming into this game, but it’s tough to tell why from this tape. In this one, he had 4 catches for 51 yards. He showed everything you like out of a tight end. He showed smooth hands, good speed, good route running ability and instincts, and the ability to catch the ball in stride and make use of space after the catch. He also is a very good run and pass blocker, even at 6-5 245. He looked like the real deal in this one, lining up at both tight end and fullback.

Barden did have 34 catches for 425 yards and 3 touchdowns last season and he has been dealing with a few injuries, as well as inconsistencies at the quarterback position, so those could be to blame for his low catch total. However, he has everything the scouts like out of a tight end and with some track record of success, he could see his stock go up significantly once teams get him in individual drills as we get closer to draft day. The 6-5 245 pound tight end looks like a mid rounder in my book, probably around round 4, maybe 5.