OT Mike Adams (Ohio State)

DT Armond Armstread (USC)

WR Justin Blackmon (Oklahoma State)

DT Michael Brockers (LSU)

CB Morris Claiborne (LSU)

QB Kirk Cousins (Michigan State)

OLB Lavonte David (Nebraska)

WR Michael Floyd (Notre Dame)

CB Stephon Gilmore (South Carolina)

G Cordy Glenn (Georgia)

TE Ladarius Green (LA-Lafayette)

CB Jayron Hosley (Virginia Tech)

OLB Bruce Irvin (West Virginia)

MLB James-Michael Johnson (Nevada)

DE Chandler Jones (Syracuse)

OLB Josh Kaddu (Oregon)

OT Matt Kalil (USC)

RB Doug Martin (Boise State)

OT Jonathan Martin (Stanford)

DE Whitney Mercilus (Illinois)

RB Isaiah Pead (Cincinnati)

DE Nick Perry (USC)

RB Trent Richardson (Alabama)

OT Mitchell Schwartz (California)

G Amini Silatolu (Midwestern State)

P Brian Stahovich (San Diego State)

OT Donald Stephenson (Oklahoma)

QB Ryan Tannehill (Texas A&M)

OLB Bobby Wagner (Utah State)

QB Brandon Weeden (Oklahoma State)

RB David Wilson (Virginia Tech)

WR Kendall Wright (Baylor)

 

 

Offensive Tackle

Levi Brown and Brandon Keith have been awful at offensive tackle for forever. This season, Levi Brown allowed 11 sacks and 40 pressure, while committing 6 penalties. At right tackle, Brandon Keith, combined with Jeremy Bridges, to allow 12 sacks, 40 pressures, and commit 5 penalties. I have no idea why they’ve never bothered to upgrade them. Maybe with a big money quarterback under center in Kevin Kolb (or maybe even Peyton Manning), they’ll see the need to upgrade this crucial position. Maybe Levi Brown, a first round pick in 2007, can have his career salvaged by a move to right tackle (if they can agree to a restructured contract), but either way they at least need a new left tackle. Jonathan Martin won’t fall past them at 13.

Middle Linebacker

They signed Stewart Bradley to a 5 year deal in the offseason, despite the fact that he was coming off a season ending injury, to be the long term solution inside next to Daryl Washington. However, Bradley really struggled and barely saw the field by mid October. Veteran stopgap Paris Lenon stepped in for him, but he’s a 34 year old career journeyman so they still need a long term solution inside next to Washington.

Cornerback

Patrick Peterson struggled in coverage as the 5^th overall pick in last April’s draft, but he was so good on special teams that it might not have even mattered. Besides, cornerbacks always take a year or so to develop. However, after him on the depth chart, Richard Marshall is a free agent and Al Jefferson struggled in coverage. They could use one more cornerback in the mix.

 

Wide Receiver

Larry Fitzgerald has said on multiple occasions that he misses having someone like Anquan Boldin opposite him drawing the coverage away from him (at one point he even offered to take a paycut for the Cardinals to resign him, but they still traded Boldin). Neither Andre Roberts nor Early Doucet have been able to fill Boldin’s void. The Cardinals listened to Fitzgerald’s desires when he said they should trade for Kevin Kolb and then they paid him 120 million over 8 years so why wouldn’t they bring in another receiver opposite him. This is a strong wide receiver class in free agency and receivers like Kendall Wright, Alshon Jeffery, and Michael Floyd will be in consideration at 13.

Guard

Offensive tackle isn’t the only position on the offensive line that can be upgraded. Right guard Rex Hadnot could be upgraded too. They could take a guard if the value makes sense, which it might with David DeCastro at 13.

Rush Linebacker

Clark Haggans and Joey Porter seem done. They have used 4^th round picks on rush linebackers in each of the last two drafts, O’Brien Schofield and Sam Acho. Both were solid last year, but they might want another player in the mix.

3-4 Defensive End

Calais Campbell is their best defensive player. Aside from Ray McDonald and Justin Smith in San Francisco, no team has a better 3-4 defensive end duo than the Cardinals with Campbell and Darnell Dockett. However, Campbell is a free agent. He’ll need to be resigned and the Cardinals have already said they’ll use their franchise tag on him so I don’t think he’s going anywhere. Depth might be nice though. Top reserve Nick Eason was awful last year.

Quarterback

I expect the Cardinals to sign Peyton Manning this offseason. It might seem stupid for the Cardinals to release Kolb just one year after trading Dominique Rodgers Cromartie and a 2^nd round pick for him, but it’s even stupider to overpay Kolb when you could have had Peyton Manning.

 

 

Charles Johnson had 11.5 sacks last year, but only 10 in his first 3 years and yet the Panthers give him Julius Peppers money. Peppers got 6 years 92 million with 42 million guaranteed. Johnson gets 6 years 72 million with 30 million guaranteed. Why didn’t they just resign Peppers (89 sacks in 9 years) last offseason? I guess I shouldn’t expect any better from the same franchise who gave Jake Delhomme 5 years 42.5 million 3 months after he turned the ball over 6 times in a playoff game.

Grade: F

 

 

 

Debate the Browns’ offseason possibilities in The Football Fan Forum

2010 Projection:  

The Browns figure to be one of the worst teams in the league this year once again. They appear to be heading in somewhat the right direction, drafting a new quarterback to try to fix this mess. However, as has been said, Colt McCoy isn’t going to see the field much this year, if at all, because Mike Holmgren doesn’t feel he’s ready. This is a very smart idea considering how much better quarterbacks have been in their career if they’ve had a rookie redshirt year. With mid round picks, sitting them a year seems to be the whole way they pan out, at least when you look at the last few years with guys like Drew Brees, Matt Schaub, Chad Henne, and Kevin Kolb. I wasn’t huge on Colt McCoy coming out of school, but I like him a lot more if they sit him this year and let him learn a pro style offense and develop.

However, that leaves this year and that leaves Jake Delhomme as their starting quarterback. This is the guy who threw 18 picks to 8 touchdowns last year with Carolina. He’s been alright in the past and some might be expecting a bounce back year for him, but I wouldn’t hold my breath. His receivers aren’t going to help him out much. At least in Carolina he had Steve Smith. Here, he has Mohammed Massaqoui, Brian Robiskie, and Benjamin Watson. Good luck.

Their running game could be solid, but as we’ve seen before, that doesn’t matter much if you’re team can’t create yards through the air. Look at Tennessee. Chris Johnson rushed for 2000+ yards, but they didn’t even make the playoffs. In order to make the playoffs, you need at least a top 15 quarterback and even with a top 15 quarterback, you’d probably need a top 10, top 12 defense, which brings me to the other side of the ball.

They made some solid additions on that side of the ball this offseason, but overall I think it’s just as mediocre of a group as it was last year. Sheldon Brown helps their secondary a bit, but I don’t think any of their draft picks will have an immediate impact. They drafted 3 defensive backs, 2 of which I really didn’t like, and defensive backs take a while to develop and see the field anyway. Joe Haden will probably be their nickel back this year, but he’s not going to help them out in any huge way this year.

Projection: 2-14 4^th in AFC North

Power Ranking: 32 

Last season: 5-11

Draft:

#7 CB Joe Haden (Florida)

The Browns were an awful team last year, as they were for pretty much the entire last decade. They really needed to go with someone who can help them right away and Haden, because of their depth at cornerback, will probably not start until year 3. They should have tried to trade down here (though I can’t say I know they didn’t try) and if they couldn’t, they needed to take a quarterback like Jimmy Clausen.

Grade: C+

#38 S TJ Ward (Oregon)

Huh? The Browns needed to take a quarterback here and could have taken Jimmy Clausen in the 2^nd round, but instead they decided to take a 5^th round prospect at safety. Yeah, safety was a need, but Ward is a huge reach by a count of 3 rounds, and doesn’t have a lot of positional value for a team that needs to get better in a hurry. By taking a cornerback who won’t start until year 3 and taking a safety that has no business ever starting in the NFL, the Browns have somehow managed to not make themselves any better at all with their first 2 picks, at least not immediately.

Grade: F

#59 RB Montario Hardesty (Tennessee)

I don’t love Colt McCoy, but the Browns need a quarterback so I don’t see why they didn’t take one here. I mean, they had to have traded up for a reason, but apparently that reason was to take a 2^nd string running back, which wasn’t a huge need at all. They would have been fine with Jerome Harrison and James Davis at running back next year. I don’t see how this pick makes them much better next year either.

Grade: C-

#85 QB Colt McCoy (Texas)

I have to hand it to Mike Holmgren. I guess Colt McCoy was his guy all along and he was able to have the guts to wait on him, knowing he’d probably fall. However, that could have ended up looking pretty stupid. Still, I don’t mind the pick. I don’t love McCoy and I had higher rated quarterbacks available, but at least it’s the right position.

Grade: A-

#92 G Shawn Lauvao (Arizona State)

The Browns reached for a 5^th round prospect in the 3^rd at a position of little value? Really? That doesn’t sound like them. I like Mike Holmgren just wanted to guy his quarterback out of this draft and let Eric Mangini do the rest of the drafting. So many of these picks look like classic Eric Mangini picks. Either that or Mike Holmgren is less smart than I give him credit for.

Grade: D

#160 S Larry Asante (Nebraska)

At least he fits the draft range, but the Browns have so many more important needs that they can’t really drafted another safety. Plus, I don’t like Asante. I don’t think he’s a starting caliber player in the NFL. What’s with all of these bad teams not paying attention to positional value. Who is going to catch Colt McCoy/Jake Delhomme’s passes, what about their defensive line, rush linebacker?

Grade: B-

#177 WR Carlton Mitchell (South Florida)

He fits the draft range, has great upside, and fills a need, so this is probably one of their best picks, but they did have better options, though I can’t bash this pick too much.

Grade: B+

#186 3-4 DE Clifton Geathers (South Carolina)

Finally, some good positional value. Geathers is a perfect fit with huge upside at the 3-4 end position for the Browns and can serve as their replacement for Corey Williams.

Grade: A

Overall:

The Browns could have done worse, but not much. I don’t think they made themselves any better for next year at all, and because of that, I think they actually made themselves worse for next year. However, even with all of their reaches and picks that lacked positional value, they did draft a cornerback in the first with really good upside and a potential franchise quarterback in the 3^rd, though I don’t like McCoy’s chances, even with a year on the bench, as Holmgren has said he will give him.

Grade: C

Key undrafted free agents:

RLB Auston English (Oklahoma)

Rush Linebacker:

The Browns actually managed 40 sacks as a team, but no one had more than 6.5 so they still have that need for an elite pass rusher. They could target Derrick Morgan at 7 if they feel he would fit their 3-4 scheme, which I feel he wouldn’t. Otherwise, they’ll have to wait until the 2^nd round or later to get an elite rush linebacker which would be smart because of the alarming rate at which rush linebackers have been busting in recent years.

Traded for Chris Gocong 

Wide Receiver:

The Browns drafted 2 wide receivers in the 2^nd round last year, but there’s a good chance that one doesn’t pan out and even if both do, I don’t see either as that elite deep threat of a wide receiver. Their first pick could very well be an elite #1 wide receiver to replace Braylon Edwards, preferably one who tries. They need to get Brady Quinn help ASAP.

Drafted Carlton Mitchell (#177) 

Middle Linebacker:

A real 3-4 middle linebacker upgrade next to D’Qwell Jackson is needed. David Veikune doesn’t fit the scheme at all and was a major reach in the 2^nd round last year.

Signed Scott Fujita 

Quarterback:

353 throws doesn’t make a career, but Brady Quinn’s career is on thin ice. They should give him one more year to prove himself, but if he struggles early, they will want someone in the bullpen warming up because for the sake of the public defense of Cleveland we don’t want Derek Anderson playing quarterback again. Unsuspecting innocent citizens will be belted will footballs while walking the streets on Sundays. Both Mike Holmgren and Eric Mangini will want a chance to bring in their own guy at quarterback so I would be very surprised if they didn’t take one before round 4.

Traded for Seneca Wallace, Signed Jake Delhomme, Drafted Colt McCoy (#85)

Cornerback:

They have very little depth at the position and Brandon McDonald is better as a nickelback anyway. They need a good corner opposite Eric Wright. If they use the best available strategy again this year, Joe Haden could very well be their pick at 7. If they don’t take Haden, expect them to look at a cornerback later for depth purposes only. They have other needs.

Drafted Joe Haden (#7), Traded for Sheldon Brown 

Offensive Tackle:

Joe Thomas is a stud left tackle, probably the best in the league, but John St. Clair was one of the worst starting right tackles in the league last year. Makes you wonder why they gave him a three year deal after how bad he was with the Bears. Right tackle doesn’t have a ton of positional value, which of course means Eric Mangini could spend an early pick on it, and this isn’t a huge need considering how well their line played as a whole thanks to Joe Thomas, but they could have one of the top 5 offensive lines in the league with an upgrade at right tackle.

Signed Tony Pashos 

Tight End:

The Browns started several different tight ends last year and it got so bad that they had to promote Evan Moore from the practice squad to start late in the season and he did a better job than anyone else. However, tight end doesn’t have a huge positional value so it can wait another season if he has to, but picking up a 1-2 year stopgap in free agency might be nice.

Signed Benjamin Watson, Signed Alex Smith

Free agents:

QB Derek Anderson- signed with Cardinals 2 years 7.5 million

QB Brett Ratliff (exclusive rights)

RB Jerome Harrison (restricted)- resigned 1 year 1.7 million

RB Jamal Lewis 

FB Lawrence Vickers (restricted)- resigned 1 year 1.7 million

WR Donte Stallworth- signed with Ravens 1 yr .9 mil 

WR Mike Furrey 

WR Sydndric “I could not make this name up if I tried” Steptoe (restricted)

OT Ryan Tucker

G Rex Hadnot- signed with Cardinals 3 years 9 million

C Hank Fraley- signed with Rams 

C Eric Ghiaciuc 

RLB Matt Roth (restricted)- resigned 1 year 1.8 million

RLB Arnold Harrison (restricted) 

MLB Jason Trusnik (restricted)- signed 1 year 1.6 million

MLB D’Qwell Jackson (restricted)- resigned 1 year 1.7 million

MLB Blake Costanzo (exclusive rights)- resigned 1 year

S Brodney Pool (restricted)- not tendered, signed with Jets 1 year 1.3 million

S Abram Elam (restricted)- tendered (2nd)- resigned 1 year 1.7 million

K Shaun Suisham 

Offseason moves:

Browns sign WR Bobby Engram

Browns cut K Shaun Suisham

Browns cut C Eric Ghiaciuc

Browns re-sign MLB D’Qwell Jackson 

Browns re-sign RB Jerome Harrison

Browns re-sign RLB Matt Roth

Browns re-sign S Abram Elam

Browns re-sign FB Lawrence Vickers

Browns sign K Shaun Suisham

Browns sign TE Alex Smith

Browns sign C Eric Ghiaciuc

Browns acquire CB Sheldon Brown, RLB Chris Gocong from Eagles for DE Alex Hall, 2010 4th, 5th rounders

Browns re-sign MLB Blake Costanzo

Browns trade QB Brady Quinn to Broncos for FB Peyton Hillis, 2011 6th-rounder and 2012 late-rounder

Browns trade DE Kamerion Wimbley to Raiders for 2010 3rd-rounder

Browns sign QB Jake Delhomme

Browns re-sign MLB Jason Trusnik

Browns cut TE Steve Heiden

Browns sign TE Ben Watson

Browns cut QB Derek Anderson

Browns acquire QB Seneca Wallace from Seahawks for conditional 2011 pick

Browns sign MLB Scott Fujita

Browns sign OT Tony Pashos

Browns announce retirement of OT Ryan Tucker

Browns trade DT Corey Williams and 2010 7th-rounder to Lions for 2010 5th-rounder

Browns tender MLB D’Qwell Jackson

Browns tender RB Jerome Harrison

Browns tender MLB Blake Costanzo

Browns tender MLB Jason Trusnik

Browns tender FB Lawrence Vickers

Browns tender S Abram Elam

Browns tender RLB Matt Roth

Browns cut C Hank Fraley

Browns cut RB Jamal Lewis

Browns cut WR Donte’ Stallworth 

 

 

Deal for Browns:

With 4 sacks last year at 320 pounds, Williams was actually one of the Browns best defensive players (not saying much). They could have gotten a lot more value for him than they did.

Grade: C

Deal for Lions:

Brilliant. Corey Williams only had 4.5 sacks over the last 2 years in Cleveland’s 3-4, but he had 7 sacks (at 320 pounds) in each of his last two years in a 4-3. He’s a perfect fit for Detroit’s scheme next to Sammie Lee Hill and he allows the Lions to trade down from the 2^nd pick because they no longer need Ndamukong Suh. They could get a lot more value out of that pick if they traded it and Suh is the type of player that teams will trade up into the top 3 to get. You know any team picking from 4-9 (with the exception of Kansas City because their loaded at the position and Oakland because their GM is “dead”) would love to move up into that 2^nd spot to get Suh and Detroit could get themselves at least a 2010 and a 2011 2^nd for moving down just a few spots.

Grade: A

 

 

 

Well it didn’t take them long to replace Reggie Bush, bringing in Darren Sproles on a 4 year, 14 million dollar deal, with 6 million in guarantees. Sproles is a nice 3^rd down back, but he’s 28 and speed is his only asset so signing him until he’s 32 doesn’t make a lot of sense. He also has never had more than 90 carries in a season and running back wasn’t a huge hole for the Saints with Mark Ingram, Chris Ivory, and Pierre Thomas, but I don’t hate this deal.

Grade: B

 

By Dean Holden 

The Detroit Lions lost to the New York Giants on Sunday by their second-largest margin of the season.

That margin was eight points.

Makes you think, doesn’t it?

The Lions are a 1-5 team, and it has been a frustrating 1-5. But for the same reason that they have been frustrating, they have also been a lot of fun to watch.

Four of their six games have been decided by a single possession, and another was a 44-6 blowout of the St. Louis Rams, whose win over the San Diego Chargers makes the Lions look better by comparison.

Not once in six games this season have Lions fans had to shut off their TV midway through the fourth quarter in frustration with yet another ugly Lions loss. Even the Minnesota game was a little closer than the 14-point differential implies.

If ever there was a time when the Lions should have lost by a wide margin, it was at New Meadowlands Stadium on Sunday.

The Giants were coming off a pair of demolishing victories over the Chicago Bears and Houston Texans and were riding high on their revitalized defense.

The Lions were also coming off a big victory, but they were also looking to avoid tying their own record for consecutive road losses. And then they played the second half with their third-string quarterback, Drew Stanton, a guy who was drafted three offensive coordinators ago.

In addition, the Lions were down about four or five linebackers—in case you hadn’t heard, Zack Follett is doing fine, has feeling and movement in all his extremities, and shows no evidence of spinal damage—and most of the starters who did play are dealing with some sort of lingering injury.

And still the Lions fought, making a game out of one that should have been a laugher. That may be cold comfort to fans that have had it up to here with moral victories, but for demonstrative purposes, let’s flip the situation.

Let’s say the Giants had lost Eli Manning for the entire Giants season except for one half, and they had to make do with Sage Rosenfels. And let’s say Rosenfels had played fairly well in his relief duty, but halfway through the Lions game, he breaks his arm, and the Giants have to play Rhett Bomar.

Do the Giants still win that game? Do they even keep it within eight points? And that’s with just one injury, not a handful to the defense as well.

I’m not trying to make the point that the Lions are a better, deeper football team than the Giants. It’s tough to make that charge with a 1-5 team.

I am, however, pointing out that the Giants, who were supposed to run away with this game, whose fans were talking about playing Dallas a week ago, escaped with a win at home.

The top-ranked New York Giants defense was 38 yards and a two-point conversion away from overtime with a 1-4 team playing a quarterback who, in his short career, has sat the bench behind the likes of Daunte Culpepper, Dan Orlovsky and J.T. O’Sullivan.

When Stanton came into the game, I was sure it was over. The announcers actually said it best when they mentioned Stanton’s lack of experience, poor decision making, errant accuracy and lack of agility in the pocket. Basically, Stanton’s only issues are all the essential elements of a quarterback.

And yet the Lions were step-for-step with the Giants for most of the game, and I enjoyed watching it. They were riddled with injuries, made stupid mistakes, took bad penalties and turned the ball over at the worst possible times, but they fought.

Perhaps the best example of this came in the third quarter, when the Giants needed seven offensive plays to earn a touchdown from the Detroit eight-yard line. The Lions fought hard with their backs against the wall, as has been their trademark. But then, it was only stupid mistakes and penalties that actually allowed the Giants to run seven plays inside the 10-yard line.

Here’s part of the drive summary from NFL.com (from the time the Giants entered the red zone).

1-10-DET 18 (9:46) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short left to 88-H.Nicks (27-A.Smith). PENALTY on DET-27-A.Smith, Defensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at DET 18 – No Play

1-8-DET 8 (9:39) 44-A.Bradshaw up the middle to DET 6 for 2 yards (58-A.Palmer, 39-C.Brown)

2-6-DET 6 (9:06) 44-A.Bradshaw left end to DET 3 for 3 yards (27-A.Smith, 58-A.Palmer).

3-3-DET 3 (8:22) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short left to 88-H.Nicks. PENALTY on DET-92-C.Avril, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 2 yards, enforced at DET 3.

1-1-DET 1 (8:13) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short middle to 89-K.Boss (58-A.Palmer). PENALTY on DET-58-A.Palmer, Defensive Holding, 0 yards, enforced at DET 1 – No Play.

1-1-DET 1 (8:08) 27-B.Jacobs left guard to DET 1 for no gain (91-Sa.Hill, 49-Z.Follett).

2-1-DET 1 (7:31) 27-B.Jacobs left guard to DET 1 for no gain (99-C.Williams, 49-Z.Follett).

3-1-DET 1 (6:50) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 47-T.Beckum for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

Now, if you take away the dumb penalties, the Lions made two consecutive goal-line stands. This drive is indicative of what teams do when they have enough talent and lots of heart, but very little experience with winning football games.

Much of the game was like this. Against all odds, the Lions made great plays, then subsequently erased or offset them with penalties and turnovers. That’s half of what they need to do, and a lot more than they did last season or certainly the season before.

Previously, this was the team that would make one great play, then erase it with a penalty or turnover, allow it to snowball, make six or seven more mistakes, turn a three-point lead into an 18-point deficit, then appear to quit, just dying on the field.

In games like this, you can still see how this Lions team evolved from that one. They share a lot of the same traits: the losses, the untimely mistakes, the injuries. But it is not the same team.

No longer is this the team that gets down by a touchdown and goes into depression. No longer is it the team that rolls over and assumes the position when an opponent starts to gain momentum.

This is a team that fights, even when they appear to have their back broken. This is the team that trails by 18 with five minutes to go, but only loses by three. This is a team whose starting quarterback put on his helmet and was ready to come into the game, even though his throwing shoulder isn’t yet fully healed.

And right now, I’m having fun watching.

For all their faults, I love this these Lions—and not just because I’m regionally conditioned to love them. I love them because they finally look like what a Detroit football team should look like.

They’re trying to pull themselves out of a historically bad stretch. They’re down in the dumps. They can’t seem to catch a break. They’re a national laughingstock, even though they’re not as bad as the jokes about them would indicate.

But they’re a tough, blue-collar group, they work hard, and they never, ever, ever, stop clawing themselves forward. They’re not that good now, but if you’re looking honestly, you can see the improvement. You can see everyone banding together towards a common goal, and you know that it won’t be like this for much longer.

Because the Detroit Lions are the team that often loses, but never dies.

This is a 1-5 team that has a lot of talent, a lot to learn, and most importantly, a whole lot of heart, every single week.

And strange as it may sound, right now, I wouldn’t trade this 1-5 team for any other in the National Football League.

http://bleacherreport.com/users/64307-dean-holden

Go back to Lions Fan Spot 

 

When predicting a draft, its important to know what certain drafters and organizations tend to draft

San Diego Chargers- Known for being a bit unpredictable when drafting, but seem to enjoy taller players, building from the outside in, and proven college guys.

Denver Broncos- Not much is known about John Elway’s drafting tendencies, but John Fox likes high character players and hates pass catching tight ends.

Oakland Raiders- Put an extra emphasis on speed and size, actually scratch that, only puts an emphasis on speed and size, Darrius Heyward Bey is the greatest player of all time

Kansas City Chiefs- Come from the New England school of drafting only they aren’t quite as good, enjoy building in the trenches, especially defensive line, known to go with positional value over need

Indianapolis Colts- Strong believers in the best available player theory, much more likely to draft offensive early rather than defensive

Jacksonville Jaguars- Badly need to sell tickets so big name guys are going to be high on their radar, otherwise they are big fans of the best available player theory and also enjoy drafting a player at a position they just drafted

Houston Texans- 3 of their last 4 first round picks were used an offensive or defensive lineman, so there is a strong tendency to build from the inside out

Tennessee Titans- Put extra value on building in the trenches and adding to their defense, though their last two first round picks were used on offensive players

Cincinnati Bengals- Enjoy drafting players with a criminal record, no character, no problem, all they care about is football talent and potential

Pittsburgh Steelers- Tend to go with best available player and also enjoy watching Big Ben get hit many times and not doing anything about the offensive line, enjoy bigger offensive lineman rather than smaller

Baltimore Ravens- Often ignore positional needs for the best available player

Cleveland Browns- Enjoy drafting low on the positional value chart and are known for getting ripped off in draft day trades, last year traded the rights to a franchise quarterback for the rights to a center, as well as a free safety, a 3-4 defensive end, and a few later picks

New England Patriots- Hate to draft in their assigned spot and will make about 35 draft day trades in an effort to someday have every pick in the entire 2^nd round, prefer to draft in the trenches, and do not fall in love with prospects and will never trade up to get a guy, a bit afraid to draft rush linebackers, known for making smart draft moves

New York Jets- Presumably like to draft defense based on Rex Ryan’s history as a defensive coordinator, but there isn’t much evidence either way. Drafted a quarterback in the first round last year because it was a huge need and were not afraid to move up 12 spots to get their guy, also later traded many picks for the rights to Shonn Greene so a history of falling in love with players is there

Miami Dolphins- Speed over size, fundamentals over athleticism, build in trenches, its been the Parcells way for years

Buffalo Bills- New regime, no idea about drafting tendency, though securing a franchise quarterback would likely be high on their list

Arizona Cardinals- Offense over defense, value over need

San Francisco 49ers- “I want winners!” -Mike Singletary

Seattle Seahawks- New regime so it can be tough to tell, especially since no GM is currently in place, but Pete Carroll, like college coaches before him, will likely put a greater emphasis on guys who were good college players, and also put added value on guys they worked with at the college level

St. Louis Rams- Big fans of positional value upstairs and their coach puts an extra emphasis on defense and a good pass rush as shown by his years as a pass rush minded coordinator with the Giants

New Orleans Saints- Big fans of best available, known to stock pile wide receivers

Atlanta Falcons- Draft for need rather than positional value, known to reach a bit, and also known to draft up for a guy they like

Carolina Panthers- Known to trade away their first round pick, and build in the trenches, offensive line over defensive line

Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Committed to building around their young quarterback, but their head coach is also a defensive minded guy who lacks a good defense right now, so defense could be high on his list as well

Minnesota Vikings- Don’t put a huge stock on guys with character issues, big lineman over faster more athletic lineman, known to take risks

Green Bay Packers- Straight off of the draft board, best available always, regardless of needs

Chicago Bears- Defensive over offensive, haven’t had a ton of early picks in a while

Detroit Lions- Value over need every time, might be committed to building around Matt Stafford, but I’m not sure

Dallas Cowboys- The bigger the name the better, also enjoy ignoring needs and drafting many guys at the same positional, would rather eat bugs than draft defensive backs, especially early, big offensive lineman over smaller lineman

Philadelphia Eagles- Build from the inside out, enjoy large offensive lineman, hate to draft running backs

New York Giants- Big fans of drafting best available, also enjoy building their defensive line

Washington Redskins- Owner like the big name, head coach will be looking for his own quarterback, like to pick some random running back late and run him 300 times the next season then repeat process, athletic lineman over bigger lineman 

 

Rush Linebacker/outside linebacker 

South Carolina

6-1 245

40 time: 4.67

Draft board overall prospect rank: #34

Draft board rush linebacker rank: #4

Overall rating: 82*

1/21/10: He has experience playing standing up at South Carolina, despite being a defensive end, and he has looked dropping back into coverage on occasion as well so those are major pluses for rush linebacker prospects that can be so unpredictable. He also has 30 sacks in his 4 year career at South Carolina and had 7.5 this year, so he’s a good pass rusher as well, though not a great one. He’s versatile and can play 4-3 strong outside linebacker and maybe even some 3-4 middle linebacker. His 40 time for his weight could keep him out of the first round.

Update (11/2/09): I may have been wrong on this guy, or at least made a decision too soon. He hasn’t been playing well lately.

            10/8/09: On paper, Eric Norwood is one ugly linebacker prospect. He is only about 6 feet and change and barely 250 pounds. That would be ok, if he had any good timed speed. But his 40 time is expected to be in the mid 4.7s. However, Norwood is one of the few 2010 NFL Draft prospect I have seen that simply does nothing wrong. For the position he plays and the position he projects to play at the next level, rush linebacker, he does it all. He has good hands and can drop back in coverage which is something you rarely see out of a young rush linebacker prospect, but none the less its something very important. He is an amazing pass rusher. He is simply relentless in rushing the passer and breaking up the play in the backfield. He’s a real playmaker. He doesn’t have the natural athleticism you’d expect out of an elite pass rusher, but he has an amazing motor and always gets the job done. He proves that natural athleticism, while nice, is not all what its about and there certainly have been players that have survived in the NFL with this than stellar athleticism and a few that have not just survived, but strived. James Harrison, the 2009 NFL defensive player of the year, is a great example. Harrison is a 240 pound rush linebacker with mid 4.8 speed. Norwood’s complete game and motor are comparable to Harrison’s. Norwood isn’t going to be able to play on a defensive line in the NFL because of his lack of size, so if he were to be drafted by a 4-3 team, he would have to move to outside linebacker where he would lose a lot of value. He has a ton of value as a rush linebacker though and could be the first rush linebacker off of the board in a weak rush linebacker class.

NFL Comparison: Mike Vrabel

*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here

 

QB RB WR TE DEF Top 100

1. Calvin Johnson (Detroit)

Discounting 2009 when he battled some injuries, Calvin Johnson has a combined 155 catches for 2451 yards and 24 touchdowns in 31 games from 2008-2010. In that span, his quarterbacks have been Dan Orlovsky, Daunte Culpepper, Jon Kitna, Shaun Hill, Drew Stanton, and a combined 3 games (1 complete game) of Matt Stafford.

Stafford has by far the best arm of the bunch and the best arm to utilize Calvin Johnson’s talents as a freakishly athletic deep threat. I mean if you’re creating a receiver on Madden and you max out his height and weight and set everything to 99, you’ve pretty much just created Calvin Johnson. If Stafford stays healthy, I think this is the year he takes his rightful place atop the fantasy wide receiver totem pole.

Projection: 88 catches, 1350 receiving yards, 14 touchdowns (219 pts, 307 PPR)

2. Andre Johnson (Houston)

If you take his stats from 13 games last year and stretch them across 16 games, you get 106 catches for 1497 yards and 10 touchdowns. Those stats are right in line with what he did in 2008 and 2009. In 2008, he had 115 catches for 1575 yards and 8 touchdowns and in 2009 he had 101 yards for 1569 yards and 9 touchdowns. He could see a slight dip in those numbers this year because the Texans actually have a defense and a running game so they don’t need to air it out as much. However, he’s still the clear #2 wide receiver this year and the top receiver in PPR.

Projection: 103 catches, 1470 receiving yards, 9 touchdowns (201 pts, 304 PPR)

3. Mike Wallace (Pittsburgh)

In 12 games with Ben Roethlisberger in 2010, he had 51 catches for 1046 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns. Across 16 games, that’s 68 catches for 1395 yards and 11 touchdowns. In his final 8 games, as Hines Ward started to decline, he had 38 catches for 750 yards and 5 touchdowns. Across 16 games, that’s 76 catches for 1500 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. Of course, Ben Roethlisberger has only played 16 games once in his career, so I think it’ll be close to that first set of number than the 2^nd, but a YPC of 20 is not unrealistic for someone with his type of speed. He’s also in his 3^rd year, a big year for receivers.

Projection: 70 catches, 1400 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns (200 pts, 270 PPR)

4. Hakeem Nicks (NY Giants)

8/17/11: Steve Smith and Kevin Boss are gone. That means more targets will go to Manningham and Nicks. 

In his 2^nd season in the league, Nicks had 79 catches for 1052 yards and 11 touchdowns. He’s now going into his magical 3^rd season, that 3^rd season where young receivers always seem to break out. Steve Smith is hurt so Nicks will get more targets. He has a great rapport with Eli Manning, who never gets hurt. He’s a pretty safe WR1.

Projection: 88 catches, 1200 receiving yards, 13 touchdowns (198 pts, 286 PPR)

5. Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona)

In 3 years with Kurt Warner, Fitzgerald had 100, 96, and 97 catches. His total yards were a little lower in his final year with Warner, 2009, with 1092 yards, but he had 1409 yards in 2007 and 1431 yards in 2008. He also combined for 35 touchdowns in 3 years with Warner. Kevin Kolb is not Kurt Warner, but two things, Fitz has been working out with Kolb all offseason so they have good chemistry. Fitz also no longer has to contend with Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston for yards and receptions like he did when Warner was in town. Besides, Fitz somehow managed 90 catches for 1137 yards and 6 touchdowns last year with a pile of steaming crap at quarterback.

Projection: 94 catches, 1300 receiving yards, 11 touchdowns (196 pts, 290 PPR)

6. Greg Jennings (Green Bay)

Greg Jennings had 76 catches for 1265 yards and 12 touchdowns last year. That’s pretty aligned with what he had been doing in previous years. I see no reason why he can’t put up similar if not better stats this year. Aaron Rodgers is still throwing to him and Donald Driver is fading opposite him. Jennings was much better in the 2^nd half last year than he was in the first.

Projection: 80 catches, 1300 receiving yards, 11 touchdowns (196 pts, 276 PPR)

7. Miles Austin (Dallas)

9/3/11: Austin has been dealing with a hamstring problem all preseason. These types of things tend to linger so I’d knocking his production down just a little, even though I don’t think he’ll miss any games.  

In his last 17 games with Tony Romo, Austin has 109 catches for 1725 yards and 12 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 103 catches for 1624 yards and 11 touchdowns. Romo is back and should be able to play a full 16 game set this year. He’s always been healthy except that one freak hit last year.

Now, obviously, I’m not going to predict those stats for Austin for several reasons. One, it’s just unrealistic. No one does that. Two, in those 17 games, he either didn’t have Dez Bryant opposite him or the Dez Bryant he had opposite him was still learning the playbook. Three, Jason Garrett is now the head coach and he seems to like Dez Bryant a lot.

Still, I think there’s room for both Austin and Bryant to have great fantasy seasons, with Austin having the greater season. I loved him last year in fantasy leagues and he was having a great season (33 catches for 486 yards and 2 touchdowns in 5 games) until Romo got hurt. Now, I think he’s very undervalued.

 

Projection: 83 catches, 1330 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns (181 pts, 264 PPR)

 

 

8. Brandon Lloyd (Denver)

Brandon Lloyd burst onto the scene with 77 catches for 1448 yards and 11 yards last year. A lot of people credit that to Josh McDaniels and think Lloyd will bust now that McDaniels is gone. However, in 4 games without McDaniels last year he had 17 catches for 295 yards and 2 touchdowns, good for 68 catches for 1180 yards and 8 touchdowns over 16 games. And that was with Tim Tebow throwing him the ball and he said it himself that prefers Kyle Orton throwing to him.

He’ll have Orton this year, at least to start. I know John Fox is a more conservative head coach than anyone they had last year, but Steve Smith never had a problem putting up big fantasy numbers (when healthy) with Fox in Carolina.

Projection: 70 catches, 1200 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns (180 pts, 250 PPR)

9. Roddy White (Atlanta)

Roddy White has been the picture of consistency for the past 4 seasons catching at least 80 passes for at least 1150 yards and at least 6 touchdowns, with double digit touchdowns in each of the past 2 seasons. Last year was his best year as he caught 115 passes for 1389 yards and 10 touchdowns. However, with the addition of Julio Jones this offseason, we should see that production drop, especially in terms of touchdowns, this season.

Projection: 105 catches, 1280 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns (176 pts, 281 PPR)

10. Mario Manningham (NY Giants)

Mario Manningham had his best season of his career last year with 60 catches for 944 yards and 9 touchdowns (and what do you know, it was his 3^rd season). I think that’s the floor for this year for him as Steve Smith will likely start the season on the bench with an injury, allowing Manningham to take Smith’s spot in the lineup. He should be able to surpass the 1000 yard mark alongside Hakeem Nicks, with the never injured Eli Manning throwing to them.

Projection: 72 catches, 1120 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns (172 pts, 244 PPR)

11. Steve Johnson (Buffalo)

In 13 games with Ryan “I’m 100 times better than Trent Edwards, but I’m still not very good” Fitzpatrick, Steve Johnson had 71 catches for 930 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 87 catches for 1140 yards and 12 touchdowns. Fitz really likes throwing to him and they didn’t add anyone else opposite him this offseason

I think he could reproduce or exceed those stats in 2011, especially given that the Bills are one of the few teams that return the same starting quarterback, head coach, and coordinators as 2010. That will be a big advantage, especially for a team that frequently has changes at all 4 of those positions. The only statistic that will be lower in 2011 will be his touchdowns. The Bills had a weird 24 passing touchdowns to 6 rushing touchdowns in 2010. That won’t be the case in 2011. Those numbers should look more normal this year.

Projection: 89 catches, 1170 receiving yards, 9 touchdowns (171 pts, 260 PPR)

12. Kenny Britt (Tennessee)

9/3/11: Like Austin, Britt is dealing with a bit of a hammy problem, something that cost him 4 games last season. I don’t think it’ll cost him any games this season, but it could hurt his production a little. 

8/28/11: Kenny Britt will not be suspended, meaning, barring injury, he’ll play 16 games this season. He had 42 catches for 775 yards and 9 touchdowns last season in 12 games. Over 16 games, that’s 56 catches for 1033 yards and 12 touchdowns. That’s good for 175 fantasy points, which would have made him the 7^th ranked fantasy receiver last season. Now keep in mind, he has a better quarterback situation this season with Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Locker rather than Kerry Collins and Vince Young and he’s in his 3^rd season, a breakout year for young wide receivers. We have a legitimate top 10 wide receiver with Britt this season.

Britt had 42 catches for 775 yards and 9 touchdowns in 12 games last year, but before you extrapolate that over 16 games, realize he’ll probably only play 12 this year anyway as it’s widely assumed that some sort of suspension is coming for him after he got arrested seemingly weekly this offseason. That suspension could be as long as 4 games. He’s also got some hamstring problems still. He’s in his 3rd year and he’s got a better quarterback in Matt Hasselbeck now, but he’s definitely a risky WR2. I’d feel safer with him as a WR3 or a flex.

 

 

Projection: 56 catches, 1020 receiving yards, 11 touchdowns (168 pts, 224 PPR)

 

13. Vincent Jackson (San Diego)

2010 was basically a lost year for Vincent Jackson as a suspension, a holdout, injuries, and “injuries” limited his time on the field. After being franchised tagged this past offseason, Jackson now seems committed to reproving himself and getting a big deal in free agency this offseason. Look for him to find his 2009 form (68 catches for 1167 yards and 9 touchdowns) once more.

Projection: 62 catches, 1130 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns (161 pts, 223 PPR)

14. Santonio Holmes (NY Jets)

In 11 games last season with Mark Sanchez, Holmes had 51 catches for 729 yards and 5 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 74 catches for 1060 yards and 7 touchdowns. Those numbers should only get higher this year with Braylon Edwards gone (replaced by the inferior Plaxico Burress) and in his 2^nd season with a new team. Besides, there’s precedent for Holmes having a huge season before. In his last year in Pittsburgh, he caught 79 passes for 1248 yards and 6 touchdowns.

Projection: 78 catches, 1120 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns (160 pts, 238 PPR)

15. Percy Harvin (Minnesota)

With Sidney Rice either out of the lineup or hampered by injury for most of the season, Percy Harvin had 71 catches for 868 yards and 5 touchdowns last year. Rice is in Seattle now and Michael Jenkins will lineup across from him instead. He’s hardly a threat. Harvin is the guy in Minnesota and he has an upgrade at quarterback with Donovan McNabb and/or Christian Ponder. He also is a relatively lock to give you another 100 yards and maybe even a score on the ground. On top of that, if you needed any more reason to love him as a WR2, he’s in his 3^rd year in the league.

Projection: 76 catches, 980 receiving yards, 110 rushing yards, 8 total touchdowns (157 pts, 233 PPR)

16. Austin Collie (Indianapolis)

8/25/11: If Peyton Manning misses a game and struggles (by his standards) for 7 games, that’s obviously bad news for Austin Collie’s fantasy value. 

8/20/11: Any stock down for Manning is a stock down for his receivers. 

Austin Collie suffered several nasty concussions last year. I’m surprised his head is still attached. However, when he was in the lineup last year, he played very well and the concussions didn’t scare him away from playing 100%. He still caught 8 passes for 87 yards and 2 touchdowns against Jacksonville. In fact, in 8 full games last year, he had 57 catches for 650 yards and 8 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 114 catches for 1300 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns.

Obviously those numbers are a little bit crazy, but not too crazy. Peyton Manning is his quarterback and he always makes receivers look good. He posted the best catch rate in the league last year, catching 82.9% of his targets. Pierre Garcon was clearly a less targeted receiver when both Garcon and Collie were available and Wayne turns 33 this season and could be heading for a decline. That leaves Collie in perfect position to step up and break out (don’t forget he’s in his magical 3^rd year as well).

Projection: 90 catches, 1000 receiving yards, 9 touchdowns (154 pts, 244 PPR)

17. Chad Ochocinco (New England)

9/3/11: Reports about Ochocinco haven’t sounded good. He hasn’t been there very long so it’s possible he’s just taking a while to pick up the offense. I like his fantasy value a lot more in the 2nd half of the season than the first because I feel he could struggle a little to start the season. 

8/20/11: Brady targeted Ochocinco 5 times in 19 throws in his 2^nd preseason game, his first start. Ochocinco only caught 2, though he did score. However, it’s very nice to see that the Patriots see Ochocinco as a big part of their offense. They could have the best offense in the league again which means a lot of yards and touchdowns for Ochocinco. 

I honestly don’t know what to expect from Ochocinco in New England this year. He could go Randy Moss on us (single season record for touchdown). He could go Torry Holt on us (cut in training camp). My best guess is that he at least improves on the 67 catches for 831 yards and 4 touchdowns he had last year in Cincinnati with Carson Palmer. We’ll see how he’s used in the preseason.

 

Projection: 66 catches, 970 receiving yards, 9 touchdowns (151 pts, 217 PPR)

 

18. DeSean Jackson (Philadelphia)

8/26/11: The Eagles offense looks out of sync right now. I don’t know if it’s Maclin being out or defensive coordinators having a whole offseason to figure out how to stop Vick, but this is not good for Jackson’s fantasy value. Maclin should be back week 1, but he won’t be 100%. 

8/17/11: Jackson also would benefit from Maclin being out of the lineup. He still wouldn’t be a goal line threat or anything, but Cooper opposite him is significantly inferior so Vick would be looking his way much more often. 

I’m not too worried about his holdout. The new CBA has made holdouts completely impractical because they moved the date in which you no longer accrue a year towards free agency up a lot. However, I am worried about the fact that he only caught 47 balls last year. Jeremy Maclin is going to have a good year opposite him and I think it’s unreasonable to expect even him to average 22.5 yards per catch again so if he wants to get 1000+ yards again, he’ll need to catch 62 balls like he did in 2009.

With Maclin presumably improving even more in his 3^rd year, that may be very tough for him. He’s also not a big touchdown guy. The extra 100 or so yards he adds on the ground is always a welcome addition, however.

Projection: 50 catches, 980 receiving yards, 100 rushing yards, 7 touchdowns (150 pts, 200 PPR)

19. Mike Williams (Tampa Bay)

Mike Williams burst onto the scene with 65 catches for 964 yards and 10 touchdowns last year. Many think he will take the next step forward in 2011. I am not one of those people. Tampa Bay’s schedule is much harder this year and receivers don’t traditionally take big leaps forward until their 3^rd year (unless they had particularly bad rookie years). Statistically, I’m projecting a step back for Mike Tampa this year.

Projection: 61 catches, 890 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns (149 pts, 210 PPR)

20. Marques Colston (New Orleans)

8/17/11: Colston’s surgically repaired knee is not 100%. It’s still not a huge concern, but it’s a little bit more concerning that it was a couple weeks ago.

Colston has had 70 catches for 1000 yards and 7 touchdowns in every season in which he’s been healthy. I don’t see why anything should change, though he did have yet another knee procedure done this offseason. He hasn’t missed any major time since 2008 with injury, but there’s always a worry with him. However, if you draft smart, you should find a sleeper that becomes a WR2 to replace Colston in your lineup should anything happen to him so I’d still feel fine taking him in the 5^th round. He’s a mid to low end WR2.

Projection: 70 catches, 1000 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns (148 pts, 218 PPR)

21. Reggie Wayne (Indianapolis)

8/25/11: If Peyton Manning misses a game and struggles (by his standards) for 7 games, that’s obviously bad news for Reggie Wayne’s fantasy value. 

8/20/11: Any stock down for Manning is a stock down for his receivers. 

Wayne has been the picture of consistency for a long time, putting up 80+ catches in every year since 2005 and 1000+ yards in every year since 2004. However, he turns 33 this season so a decline could be coming. With Austin Collie looking set to breakout and Pierre Garcon still in the mix, I find it very hard to believe that Wayne matches last year’s stats (111 catches for 1355 yards and 6 touchdowns). He might match the touchdown total (remember he did have 10 in 2009) because Indy’s offense is so explosive and he’ll still be a great fantasy receiver, but it’s time to move him down from WR1 status.

Projection: 80 catches, 1000 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns (142 pts, 222 PPR)

22. Dez Bryant (Dallas)

9/3/11: Miles Austin’s loss is Dez Bryant’s gain. The 2nd year receiver has looked very good in the preseason without Miles Austin. He’s a low end WR2 or high end WR3 with upside.

In 5 games with Tony Romo last year, Bryant had just 18 catches for 211 yards and a touchdown, good for 58 catches for 675 yards and 3 touchdowns over a 16 game season. However, some things work in his favor. He’s in his 2^nd year, definitely a plus, as rookie receivers tend to struggle. Also, head coach new Jason Garrett really seems to like him and Roy Williams is gone. I think he’s still the clear #2 in Dallas’ explosive offense, but he’s definitely a WR3 with major, major upside.

 

Projection: 75 catches, 930 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns (141 pts, 216 PPR)

 

23. Jeremy Maclin (Philadelphia)

8/17/11: Maclin should be getting back to practice soon and he’s not dying, which is obviously a good thing. However, he could still miss the first week of the season. He’s been really sick this offseason and predictably is not in great shape. It could take him a few weeks to be his old self. 

Yes, Jeremy Maclin over DeSean Jackson. I like Maclin more because he catches more balls, which means he’s less reliant on big plays to put up fantasy points, which means he’s more consistent. He’s also a better scoring threat with 10 touchdowns to Jackson’s 6 in 2010. He’s also in his 3^rd year and not a malcontent contract wise. Maclin has 70 catches for 962 yards and 10 touchdowns last year. Look for those to improve in 2011.

Projection: 64 catches, 890 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns (137 pts, 201 PPR)

24. Mike Sims Walker (St. Louis)

Mike Sims Walker had 43 catches for 562 yards and 7 touchdowns last year, but 63 catches for 869 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2009. He moves from Jacksonville to St. Louis, a more pass heavy team with a better quarterback. We saw what Josh McDaniels did with Brandon Lloyd in Denver with an inferior quarterback in Kyle Orton. I’m not saying MSW quite has that upside, but he could certainly go over a thousand yards and I don’t think his downside is all that low. I mean if Josh McDaniels can get 65 catches for 875 yards out of Kyle Orton to Jabar Gaffney last year, unless MSW gets hurt, he still has fantasy value as the #2 receiver in St. Louis’ offense.

Projection: 65 catches, 920 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns (134 pts, 199 PPR)

25. Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City)

I’m going to be upfront with it. I hate Dwayne Bowe in fantasy this year. He’s got so much working against him. The Chiefs schedule is much harder. They played 4 games against teams with better than .500 records last year (including the playoffs). Bowe had 4 catches for 49 yards and no touchdowns in those 4 games. This year they play 8 such teams.

Bowe had 15 touchdowns last year. He had 16 in his first 3 years. Can you say outlier? Also, he now has to contend with Jonathan Baldwin and Steve Breaston for targets. Last year, Kansas City had no other wide receivers. At all. Chris Chambers was their 2^nd best wideout and he’s terrible. I think this projection might even be a bit high for him.

Projection: 59 catches, 900 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns (132 pts, 191 PPR)

26. Santana Moss (Washington)

Poor Santana Moss. He’s literally had nothing but crap at quarterback in his career and now he has John Beck after a year of at least mediocre from Donovan McNabb. He caught 93 passes for 1115 yards and 6 touchdowns last year and even produced with Rex Grossman at quarterback with 22 catches for 231 yards and 2 touchdowns in two Grossman starts. His history with bad quarterbacks is bad news for him, but good news for fantasy football players. If he’s produced before with bad quarterbacks, he can presumably do it again, though his age, 32, is a bit of a red flag.

Prediction: 75 catches, 1000 receiving yards, 5 touchdowns (130 pts, 205 PPR)

27. Lance Moore (New Orleans)

8/17/11: All 3 of New Orleans’ top receivers have injury problems. Colston’s knee is still not 100%. Robert Meachem battled leg injuries all last season and recently hurt his back in a preseason game. Moore missed most of 2009 with injuries, but is as close to 100% as you can be right now. In 2008, when healthy, he caught 79 passes for 928 yards and 10 touchdowns. In 2010, when he also was healthy, he caught 66 passes for 763 yards and 8 touchdowns. Expect production similar to those numbers this year, especially with injury questions surrounding Colston and Meachem.

Projection: 70 catches, 800 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns (128 pts, 198 PPR) 

28. Wes Welker (New England)

Wes Welker had 86 catches for 848 yards and 7 touchdowns last year despite the fact that on week 1 he was just 8 months removed from tearing two knee ligaments. What torn ligaments? Many expect him to bounce back to 2007 form (112 catches for 1175 yards and 8 touchdowns) or 2008 form (111 catches for 1165 yards and 4 touchdowns with Matt Cassel) or even 2009 form (123 catches for 1348 yards and 4 touchdowns in just 13 games). I don’t expect him to go that far back. He didn’t have to contend with Danny Woodhead or Rob Gronkowski or Aaron Hernandez in any of those 3 seasons. Now he does.

Projection: 95 catches, 970 receiving yards, 5 touchdowns (127 pts, 222 PPR)

29. Nate Burleson (Detroit)

8/28/11: Matt Stafford is going to be going deep a lot more than Shaun Hill and Drew Stanton did last season. Burleson caught 12 catches for 179 yards and 1 touchdown in 3 games with Stafford last season, good for 64 catches for 955 yards and 5 touchdowns. Burleson has looked good this preseason with and without Johnson in the lineup. With the way Stafford is playing, there’s fantasy value with both Burleson and Johnson.

Projection: 65 catches, 850 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns (127 pts, 192 PPR)

30. Braylon Edwards (San Francisco)

The 49ers signing of Braylon Edwards was genius. Edwards will be as motivated as ever because the deal has financial incentives of 2.5 million dollars for making the Pro-Bowl, because it’s a one year deal which means he’s still in a contract year, and because he didn’t get the deal he wanted, which motivates him to prove doubters wrong. The upside with him is what he did in 2007, 80 catches for 1289 yards and 6 touchdowns plus turning Derek Anderson into a Pro-Bowler (which, for the record, I believe deserves at least 50, if not 100 fantasy points).

He’s the #1 guy in San Francisco. Michael Crabtree is missing his 3rd straight preseason with an injury and didn’t work out with the team during the offseason. However, I don’t know Edwards does what he did in 2007. He hasn’t shown anything like that since so I think the most we can expect from him in fantasy are WR3 numbers much like last year (53 catches for 904 yards and 7 touchdowns) with a lot of upside that he probably won’t reach.

Projection: 60 catches, 900 receiving yards, 6 touchdowns (126 pts, 186 PPR)