The fans want Tim Tebow. Tim Tebow might not be the best quarterback on their roster. He might be, but he might not be. However, we know what Kyle Orton is. Kyle Orton is boring. Kyle Orton can get you to the playoffs if you have a good supporting cast, but he won’t win any games and if he doesn’t have a good supporting cast, he’ll go 5-11. That is probably the case this year for the Broncos, who don’t have a great supporting cast at all.

Why not try Tebow? Worst case scenario, he sucks and you have to start over at quarterback. That’s not a huge deal. With the new rookie wage scale, getting a new quarterback through the draft won’t cost them that much and since Tebow was a late first rounder, he’s not getting paid a ton either. Besides, next year’s quarterback class could be the best since 2004, when Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger all went in the first 11 picks.

However, the Broncos are going to start Orton. He’ll be boring. He won’t get the fans excited. He won’t get them to the playoffs and they still won’t know what Tebow has unless they can make this his team and make him the starter from the get go. Brandon Lloyd is really happy that Orton is the starter. Lloyd, their surprise #1 receiver from a year ago, prefers pass catching from Orton over Tebow, but he might be the only one who is happy about this.

Lloyd is a talented receiver who went from 8 catches for 117 yards in 2009 to 77 catches for 1448 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2010, arguably the most inexplicable thing to happen in football in a long, long time, and that’s saying something. Opposite him, however, they lack a consistent #2. They traded Jabar Gaffney to Washington for basically nothing (Jeremy Jarmon?), a peculiar move considering he was their #2 receiver last season.

Eddie Royal is penciled in as the #2, but I really like 2^nd year player Eric Decker, a 3^rd round pick in 2010, while I feel Royal is best off in the slot. Meanwhile, Demaryius Thomas, their first round pick in 2010, was supposed to be their #2 receiver, but he can’t stay healthy. He’s out until at least November with an Achilles tear, an injury he suffered in March. It’s possible we don’t see him at all this year.

At tight end, things don’t look much better. Josh McDaniels thought tight ends were the devil’s work so he never utilized them in his time in Denver. He forced talented tight end Tony Scheffler out of town. New Head Coach John Fox, not exactly a fan of tight ends either, at least not pass catching tight ends, signed Daniel Fells in the offseason. Fells is a mediocre pass catcher who had a career high 41 catches in St. Louis with Sam Bradford last year. He is, however, a solid blocker.

On the offensive line, Ryan Clady is an above average left tackle, but that’s about where the good news stops. Zane Beadles and JD Walton, 2^nd and 3^rd round picks respectively in 2010, sucked as rookies, but figure to be better in their 2^nd season. They man the left guard and center spots respectively. Chris Kuper is a pretty marginal player at right guard and right tackle Orlando Franklin is a rookie 2^nd round pick who will be hurt by the lockout.

That offensive line is hardly the punishing run blocking offensive line John Fox is used to having. Then again, these running backs are hardly the running backs he’s used to having. He used a two back system in Carolina with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. He’ll try the same in Denver, although Knowshon Moreno and Willis McGahee aren’t quite the same.

Moreno has disappointed after being taken 12^th overall in 2009. He also has trouble staying healthy. John Fox tried to bring DeAngelo Williams from Carolina to make Moreno the 2^nd stringer, but he came up empty there. He instead signed Willis McGahee, who is 30 in October. He’s not exactly a great consolation prize to DeAngelo Williams and if Moreno gets hurt, or the 30 year old McGahee gets hurt, they’re screwed. 3^rd stringer Lance Ball was absolutely terrible last season and 4^th stringer LenDale White (LENDALE WHITE?!?!) probably weighs about 300 pounds by now.

Defensively, things don’t get a lot better. John Fox and John Elway seemed to forget that they had absolutely nothing at defensive tackle going into the draft. I can kind of understand passing on Marcell Dareus for Von Miller, but ignoring the position all together was just stupid. Instead, the Johns opted to settle for Ty Warren, through free agency, and Brodrick Bunkley, through a trade. Warren was let go by the Patriots because of medical concerns, while Bunkley was originally traded to Cleveland, but was sent back to Philadelphia, and eventually to Denver because Cleveland had medical concerns with him. Warren has already hurt his triceps and could be heading to IR. The mediocre Kevin Vickerson will take his place in the lineup and they have absolutely no talented depth at the position.

The Broncos move to a 4-3 after 2 years in a 3-4 and no one is happier about that than Robert Ayers. McDaniels drafted Ayers into a 3-4 scheme that he didn’t fit at all and, predictably, he struggled. He managed just 1.5 sacks in 2 seasons. He still has a chance to turn his career around now that they go to a 4-3 in his 3^rd season. He’ll be the left end. If he continues to struggle, the Broncos will probably try Derrick Harvey, a reclamation project who is even more of a long shot than Ayers. Harvey, the 8^th overall pick in 2008, has managed just 8 sacks in 3 seasons as a starter in Jacksonville before being benched midway through last year and then cut in the offseason.

Meanwhile, no one is sadder about a switch to a 4-3 than Elvis Dumervil. In 2009, Dumervil led the league in sacks with 17 in his first season in the 3-4. He missed all of last year with an injury and now the Broncos are back to a 4-3, which he doesn’t fit as well. In 3 seasons in the 4-3 in his career, he has 26 sacks. That’s not bad, but it’s not elite like he was in the 3-4. Combine that with the injury he’s coming off of and he’s all of a sudden a question mark when just 12 or so months ago, he was their best defensive player.

Speaking of not fitting a 4-3, Von Miller will start at strong side linebacker. Well, it’s not that he doesn’t fit a 4-3, but he isn’t as valuable in one. Miller is a beast and can be an above average strong side linebacker, even as a rookie, even after a lockout, but he’s most valuable rushing the passer and he can’t do that in a 4-3 unless it’s a 3^rd down or a 2^nd and long, which, considering they can’t stop the run, will happen about a combined 5 times this season for them.

On the weak side is DJ Williams. Williams is a stud in both a 3-4 and a 4-3 so I’m not too worried about him at all. The middle is more of a weakness. Joe Mays is an unproven player who has been underwhelming in his first 2 years in the league. This is his first year as a starter. Nate Irving was their 3^rd round pick this past April, but he’s currently 3^rd on the depth chart so his chances of moving up and winning the job at any point this season seem pretty slim, for whatever reason.

Their pass defense was one of the worst in the league last year. Only Jacksonville and Houston allowed more yards per attempt than Denver did last year. An improved pass rush will help. Elvis Dumervil is back and Robert Ayers is in an easier scheme and Von Miller is a stud when he gets a chance to rush the passer. However, some better talent in the secondary other than Champ Bailey would have been helpful.

Andre Goodman and Perrish Cox both struggled opposite Bailey last season, though Cox was a rookie so I guess he has an excuse. Rahim Moore will start at one safety spot, but he’s a rookie and rookie defensive backs tend to struggle. The 2^nd round pick will also be hurt by the lockout. At the other safety spot, Brian Dawkins is the starter. He’s a future Hall of Famer, but I’m pretty sure the man is like 85 years old at this point (I’m kidding, he’s only 38, but still). He was clearly done last season, but it doesn’t look like the Broncos have any choice at this point. Oh, and by the way, Bailey himself is 33 so he should be on the decline as well.

Making a prediction for the Broncos is simple. Kyle Orton can’t make the playoffs without a good supporting cast. That’s why he went 3-10 last year before being benched for Tebow, who, by the way, went 1-2 and kept them in all 3 games. There isn’t a lot of talent on this team so they won’t make the playoffs. They might as well give Tebow a shot, but they don’t see it that way. They see themselves as a legitimate playoff contender (you kind of can’t blame them, key word kind of) so they are going to roll with Orton, who they feel is the better quarterback. I feel they’re making a mistake, but we’ll see in time.

Quarterback: C+

Running backs: C

Receiving corps: C

Offensive line: C+

Run defense: F

Pass rush: C-

Pass coverage: C

Coaching: B-

Projection: 5-11 3^rd in AFC West

3-4 Defensive End/Defensive Tackle/Defensive End

Ohio State

6-5 295

Draft board overall prospect rank: #35

Draft board overall 3-4 defensive end rank: #5

Overall rating: 80 (early 2^nd)

40 time: 4.95

4/17/11: Heyward finally got a chance to work out after elbow surgery. He ran a 4.95 at 6-5 295 pounds, which was to be expected, but it’s definitely a plus that he is healthy and was cleared to do everything, including bench, though he opted against benching. The Chargers at 18 will consider him and he probably won’t drop into the 2^nd. 

3/29/11: Had Cameron Heyward declared in 2010 as a junior, he probably would have been a top 15 pick, with the potential to rise late like Tyson Jackson. However, he chose to return and a down year, combined with the fact that this is probably the strongest defensive line class in years, especially at his primary positions, 3-4 end and 4-3 defensive tackle, have made him a possible 2^nd round pick.

He probably would have been a lock to fall into the 2^nd round if it wasn’t for a strong game in his bowl game, but that’s just his problem, at least this year. He’s great sometimes, but he’s so inconsistent. He’ll also have to prove the health of his reconstructed elbow at his private Pro Day on March 30^th.

Word is, his elbow checks out just fine so his draft range could go as high as 18^th to San Diego. However, guys like JJ Watt, Cameron Jordan, Muhammed Wilkerson, Adrian Clayborn, Corey Liuget, and Stephen Paea could all go higher than him at his position, which could still drop him into the 2^nd round. With him, it’s all a case of do teams think they can coach him up. At his best, he’s pretty good. At his worst though, he’s almost invisible. He’s got the size, the strength, and the bloodlines, but not the necessary consistency and work ethic.

NFL Comparison: Tyson Jackson

By Eric Howard 

Seattle head coach Pete Carroll is used to being the one with the high powered offense and the ball hawking defense when he coached at USC.  Well, he is likely to get a taste of his own medicine when the Chargers head on the road on Sunday to face the Seahawks.

By Sunday evening, Carroll may wish he had stayed in the college game after he gets a front row look at what a high powered NFL offense looks like.  For all of the criticism Norv Turner gets, some justified, he has had much more professional success then the “genius” from Southern Cal.

San Diego looked very impressive on both offense and defense, manhandling Jacksonville last week, while the Seahawks looked pretty pathetic and were completely dismantled by Denver.

Chargers on offense

The Chargers will exploit the size advantage they have over the all under six-foot defensive backs of the Seahawks.  Malcom Floyd will have at least a six-inch height advantage over either of the starting Seattle cornerbacks.  We will surely see plenty of Philip Rivers to the 6 foot, 5 inch Floyd and to the 6 foot, 3 inch Legedu Naanee.

You just have to think there is no way tight end Antonio Gates will be left alone by the defense like he was last week.  Gates was open all over the field against the Jags.  If the Seahawks do not put two guys on Gates, especially on third down, it’s going to be a long day for Seattle fans.

Even if Ryan Mathews is not healthy enough to go on Sunday, the Chargers running duties seem to be pretty safe in the hands of Mike Tolbert.  The human bowling ball crashed through the Jacksonville defense last week for 82 yards and two touchdowns.

The running backs should be involved more in the passing game on Sunday.  Seattle has not shown the ability to stop backs from catching the ball and gaining big yards.  Darren Sproles could be big on Sunday.

Chargers on defense

San Diego got after David Garrard last week and made a pretty respectable quarterback look horrible.  Expect much of the same this week against the Seahawks.  Though they only had two sacks last week, they did put enough pressure on the quarterback to force him into bad decisions.

Cornerback Antoine Cason took advantage of Garrard’s errant throws and had a career day last Sunday, recording two interceptions and a forced fumble.  Cason and Quentin Jammer have another favorable match up this week.  None of the Seattle receivers are anything spectacular.

The Line backing group had a big day last week and will likely do the same this week to Seattle’s quarterback Matt Hasselbeck.  Brandon Siler, filling in for the injured Stephen Cooper, contributed with an interception as did Kevin Burnett.

Seattle’s offense is pretty comparable to Jacksonville’s maybe, maybe a little less effective then the Jags.  So, another huge day by the Chargers defense seems likely.

Seahawks on offense

There is just not a lot going on with the Seahawk offense.  They are not only lacking an identity on offense, they are lacking skill as well.

After a three interception game against the Broncos last week, there were rumblings in the Pacific Northwest about sitting starting quarterback Hasselbeck in favor of former Charger Charlie Whitehurst.  Hasselbeck will remain the starter for now, but as appears to be the trend in the NFL, coaches are not opposed to yanking unproductive quarterbacks in favor of their second stringer.

The biggest threat on offense is tight end John Carlson, who leads the team with eight receptions and 84 yards.  The rest of the receiving corps are just average, at best.  Golden Tate, a rookie wide receiver from Notre Dame, was spectacular in college and showed some flashes last week.  He caught a 52-yard touchdown pass and impressed on punt returns.  Tate will test the shaky Chargers special teams.

Seattle just hasn’t featured the running game yet this season.  Justin Forsett is averaging almost six yards per carry this season, but can’t get a fulltime load of work.  He has been sharing carries with Julius Jones and Leon Washington, neither of whom are lighting the world on fire, averaging just a little over fire yards per carry…COMBINED.

Seahawks on defense

Linebacker Lofa Tatupu is still one of the upper echelon defenders in the league and is the clear leader of a Seattle defense that has been very stingy against the run early this season.

After two games into the regular season, the Seahawks rank 5th in the NFL against the rush.  And it’s not like they have faced a couple of slouches.  They limited San Francisco’s Frank Gore to a measly 38 yards (2.2 yards per carry) in week one and Denver’s Knowshon Moreno to only 51 yards (2.1 YPC) in week two.

Concentrating on stop Moreno last week made them susceptible to the Broncos passing game last week.  Kyle Orton torched them for more than 300 yards last week.  

Rookie safety Earl Thomas leads the Seahawks in tackles.  In fact, four of the top five tacklers on the Seahawks are defensive backs.  Sure, the DB’s are helping with run stopping, but in last week’s game, they were making tackles several yards down the field.

Prediction

The San Diego air show will take over Seattle.  The Chargers have way too much on both sides of the ball for the Seahawks to handle.  Floyd and Naanee are just too big and too strong and the short passing game to the running backs will take the place of a traditional running game if the Seahawks try to stack the line of scrimmage.

Hasselbeck will be pressured from start to end and a Whitehurst sighting is not entirely out of the question.

This will be an easy winner for the Bolts.

Chargers-27

Seahawks-13

http://www.highboltage.com 

When the Buffalo Bills drafted CJ Spiller with the 9^th overall pick in the 2010 Draft, it was one of the most head scratching moves in the draft, aside from the Tyson Alualu selection one pick later. I don’t know why the Jags would take a guy who was widely regarded as a 2^nd round pick, and the very most a late first rounder, at 10. If they were going to make a reach, why not reach for Tim Tebow, who, by the way leads the NFL in jersey sales since he’s been drafted and definetely would have helped the financially scrapped Jaguars, regardless of whether or not Tebow actually became a great quarterback. He’s a Jacksonville native who had thousands of people lining up to buy his autograph for $160 a pop for charity just a few months before the draft.Tebow won’t even be playing for the Broncos that much when the Broncos come to Jacksonville week 1, but that game is almost already sold out. If the country made him the highest selling jersey, and the city of Jacksonville lined up all day to buy his autograph for at least 2 times what a ticket would cost, and the city of Jacksonville has already almost sold out the stadium to watch Tebow play backup quarterback for the road team , you don’t think he could have sold out most, if not all, home games for the Jaguars in 2010, even though the Jags only had one sellout all last year? But, I digress. I think a lot of people out there already understand that what the Jaguars did was a mistake, but I’m here to talk about what the Bills did with Spiller.

If you’re going to use a top ten pick on a running back, in 2010 when running backs are getting less and less important, you better make sure that he can carry the ball 300 times and that you need him to carry the ball 300 times. I have some doubts about Spiller’s ability to carry the ball 300 times, considering he’s 200 pounds and his career high in carries is 216, but my doubts sometimes don’t mean anything. I know the Bills don’t need Spiller to carry the ball 300 times. The Bills rushing offense ranked 9^th in the league in terms of YPC last year. Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch are talented backs. Don’t believe me? Ask the Buffalo Bills, who, according the John Clayton, are planning to give CJ Spiller 12 carries a game. Space that over 16 games, that’s 192 carries, nowhere close to 300. Based on that, I would strongly assume the Bills either don’t think Spiller can carry the load for a team or that they think he doesn’t need to carry the load for a team. Either way, that makes this pick a mistake. You simply don’t use the 9^th overall pick on a guy who won’t or can’t carry the load for you. Sure Spiller will help out in the receiving game and on special teams, but is that worth the 9^th overall pick is he’s not a feature back. I don’t think so.

Some people out there are probably thinking, but CJ Spiller is Chris Johnson. They’ll have to give him the ball more once they realize how good he is. Two things to say to that, one, normally you would hope a team would realize how good a player is before they draft him in the top 10. Two, CJ Spiller is not Chris Johnson. He is CJ Spiller. Saying he’s Chris Johnson is an insult to Chris Johnson. Why do you think I never compare, even the most highly rated players, to MVP caliber players. They have to earn that status. Spiller has to earn that status, and sure he could, but it’s way too premature to start calling him Chris Johnson.

Another thing about Chris Johnson, he averaged 5.6 YPC last year. You think CJ Spiller is going to be able to do that with a shaky quarterback and a below average offensive line. Johnson had a better quarterback and a drastically better offensive line than Spiller has. Trent Edwards behind this line is a tried and failed approach. In fact, Trent Edwards behind a more talented line with Derrick Dockery and Jason Peters on the blindside was a tried and failed approach, though to a lesser degree. I understand they may feel they have something with Brian Brohm. However, why would they not try to at least upgrade the offensive front. They didn’t draft an offensive lineman until the 5^th round, despite the fact that they ranked dead last in attempts per sacks, meaning the number of passing attempts, on average, before a sack, with 9.6. Brian Brohm is probably going to need a lot better protection is he’s going to become the type of quarterback they need. And Spiller is not going to be anywhere near worth the 9^th overall pick if he struggles to run against 8 man boxes, something he will face often unless something good happens at the quarterback position.

Finally, even if Spiller someone manages to become Chris Johnson and has a Chris Johnson type impact against 8 man boxes, despite the fact that he’s never had more than 216 carries in a year and he has to compete with two talented backs for carries and his own team doesn’t have enough faith in him to give him more than 12 carries a game and his offensive line isn’t a good as Chris Johnson’s, I still don’t know if that makes Buffalo a playoff team without something good happening at quarterback.

Chris Johnson didn’t make the playoffs last year and that’s with a more talented quarterback and line than Spiller will have. In fact, the two leading rushers last year, as well as 3 of the top 5, didn’t make the playoffs. Chris Johnson was first, but his team was just 8-8. Steven Jackson was 2^nd and his team was 1-15. Why? Bad quarterbacks behind a bad offensive line (25^th in the league in attempts per sack). Maurice Jones was 4^th but his team went 7-9. Why? Bad, or at average, quarterback play behind a bad offensive line (27^th in the league in attempts per sack).

3 of the top 5 teams in total rushing yards last year didn’t make the playoffs. Tennessee, who we’ve already explained, Carolina, who had many questions at quarterback last year (including is Jake Delhomme colorblind?) as well as a line that was 21^st in attempts per sack, and Miami who had a decent line (15^th) and decent quarterback play, but far from stellar. The only true run heavy team that made the playoffs was the Jets and even they didn’t start taking off as a team until rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez started playing more effciently. Hell, the Colts made the Super Bowl and they were dead last in rushing yards and 30^th in YPC. San Diego made the playoffs at 13-3 even though they were dead last in YPC and 31^st in total rushing yards. Running backs, even if they become feature backs, something both me and seemingly the Bills have doubts that Spiller will become, are not as important as they used to be without an above average quarterback behind an above average line. Running games are merely the compliment to a productive passing game. 

TE Orson Charles UP

Charles weighed in at 251 instead of the 241 he was listed as at Georgia. 6-2 hurts him, but if he can carry the weight well this week, it could be a sign that he’s added enough bulk to be better as a blocker. Charles is already a rising prospect who Mike Mayock has as his top tight end. He’s going to be one of the first 3 tight ends off the board with Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen (who also had good weigh ins) in the first 2 rounds or so.

TE Ladarius Green UP

After those top 3, Green is an interesting sleeper. Up to 238 from 230, Green might need to add a few pounds to be taken seriously as an “elite” tight end prospect, but this guy looks like a wide receiver out there and at 6-6, he’s also a hell of an end zone threat. He’s going to be a weapon in the seam for some team out there.

TE Nick Provo DOWN

There weren’t a lot of guys who weighed in much smaller than expected, but being 6-3 237 rather than 6-5 250 as he was listed at Syracuse hurts Provo. Provo is a great receiver, but that may be all he is.

OT Matt Kalil UP

Kalil is the consensus #1 offensive tackle prospect despite being listed at 295 at USC, however, that was the case with Tyron Smith last year. Smith was 280 at USC, but put on 30 pounds before draft day and went 9^th overall. The man that kept Smith at right tackle, Kalil, has a good chance to go even higher and is as close to a top 3 lock as you can get, especially after weighing in at 6-7 306.

OT Riley Reiff UP

Reiff is another top tier offensive tackle prospect who has added some bulk. Up from 300 at Iowa, Reiff is at 313 now. He should be the 2^nd offensive tackle off the board after Kalil and could go anywhere from 6 to 12 in April.