Atlanta Falcons 2015 NFL Season Preview

July 26, 2015 stevenlourie 2015 NFL Season Previews, Falcons, Uncategorized

Quarterback

Matt Ryan, the 3^rd overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft, started his career 56-22 in his first 5 seasons in the league, but lost his first 3 playoff games. He seemed to be past that in 2012, when he beat the Seattle in the divisional round, even though they came up short in the NFC Championship against San Francisco, dropping Ryan’s post-season record to 1-4. Everything has been all downhill since then, as Ryan has gone 10-22 over the past 2 seasons. Once the guy who couldn’t win in the playoffs is now seen as a guy who can’t win at all. However, both of those assessments put too much stock in quarterback wins as an individual stat. Ryan really hasn’t had a lot of help over the past two seasons.

Ryan himself isn’t playing that badly, grading out 5^th among quarterbacks in 2014, completing 66.1% of his passes for an average of 7.47 YPA, 28 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. In 6 seasons in the league, he’s graded out above average in all 6 seasons, including 2^nd in 2010, 4^th in 2011, 5^th in 2012, 14^th in 2013, and then 5^th last season. He’s completed 64.0% of his passes for an average of 7.19 YPA, 181 touchdowns, and 91 interceptions, while going 66-44 overall, still pretty good, despite recent team struggles.

The offense hasn’t been the problem in Atlanta over the past two seasons, despite problems on the offensive line, in the receiving corps, and at running back, as they’ve moved the chains at the 11^th best rate in the NFL in both 2013 and 2014, thanks largely to Ryan. The problem has been the defense, as they finished 27^th and 31^st in 2013 and 2014 respectively in opponents’ rate of moving the chains. As a result, they’ve finished 20^th and 23^rd respectively in rate of moving the chains differential in 2013 and 2014, and they’ve won 4 and 6 games in those 2 seasons respectively as a result. Ryan is definitely a strong quarterback, but he can’t do it alone.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The biggest problem on offense over the past 2 seasons for the Falcons has been the offensive line, as they ranked 30^th in team pass blocking grade in 2013 and then 15^th in 2014, along with 23^rd in team run blocking grade in 2013 and 28^th in 2014. The Falcons tried to fix the problem last off-season with a couple of additions. The biggest one was left tackle Jake Matthews, the 6^th overall pick in the draft. However, he was a massive disappointment as a rookie, grading out dead last among 84 eligible offensive tackles. On top of that, he went down week 17 with a Lisfranc injury, which caused him to miss some valuable practice this off-season. He’s back and healthy now and he still has upside, going into his age 23 season with a lot of natural talent, but his career has started off about as bad as it possibly could have.

One addition that did work out was the free agent acquisition of right guard Jon Asamoah on a 5-year, 22.5 million dollar deal, coming over from Kansas City. He started 15 games and graded out 24^th among guards, the 5^th straight season he’s graded out above average to start his career. The 2010 3^rd round pick has started 56 games in 5 seasons in the league and his best season came in 2012, when he graded out 10^th among guards. Only going into his age 27 season, he should continue above average play this season.

Justin Blalock, the other starting guard, also graded out above average, 26^th at his position. However, he was released this off-season, ahead of a non-guaranteed 5.35 million dollar salary that he was owed in his age 32 season in 2015. He eventually retired, after 8 years in the NFL, all in Atlanta. The Falcons brought in Chris Chester on a 1-year, 2.8 million dollar deal to replace him this off-season. Chester is going to be a better fit for new offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan’s zone blocking scheme, but he’s not as good of a player.

Chester has experience in zone blocking schemes, as he played in Washington from 2011-2013 when Kyle Shanahan was the offensive coordinator and Kyle’s father Mike Shanahan was the head coach. Chester made 48 starts in those 3 seasons and, though he only graded out above average once in three seasons, he graded out 15th in 2012. Even last year, in Jay Gruden’s new power blocking scheme, Chester graded out above average. The issue is that he’s going into his age 32 season, which is part of why the Redskins cut him, saving 4 million on the cap and in cash in the process. However, he’s still a stopgap starting caliber player.

Another reason why the Falcons offensive line was slightly better in 2014 than 2013, other than the addition of Asamoah, was the emergence of right tackle Ryan Schraeder. Schraeder never played more than 15 snaps in a game until week 8 of last season, but was able to take advantage of injuries and struggles at offensive tackle from guys like Sam Baker, Gabe Carimi, and Lamar Holmes. He finished the season as Pro Football Focus’ 22^nd ranked offensive tackle on 655 snaps. He’s only a one-year wonder as the 2013 undrafted free agent struggled on 315 snaps as a rookie, but he could easily be a solid starter over the whole season in 2015.

The Falcons also had serious problems at center last season as reserve James Stone took over for an injured Joe Hawley after week 4, grading out 34^th among 41 eligible centers on 681 snaps. Hawley isn’t a great player, but he should be an upgrade on Stone as he returns from injury. The Falcons kept him at a non-guaranteed 3 million dollar salary, coming off of a torn ACL, for lack of a better option. The 2010 4^th round pick has graded out below average in 3 of 5 seasons in the NFL, averaged 344 snaps per season, and started a total of 23 games, 9 at right guard and 14 at center. He’s a mediocre interior linemen, especially coming off of a serious injury, but, like I said, he should be an upgrade over Stone by default. Hawley was part of an offense that had the 3^rd most adjusted games lost to injury last season. As a result of likely fewer injuries, among other things, the Falcons should have a better offensive line this season, though they still have some issues.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

Despite a strong passing game that took a lot of pressure off the running game (632 pass attempts to 372 carries), the Falcons finished just 21^st in yards per carry last season at 4.02. Part of the problem was the offensive line, but the running back talent itself wasn’t very good either. The Falcons have changed things up as a result. Steven Jackson and Jacquizz Rodgers, who lead the team with 429 and 360 snaps played at running back respectively last season, are not back, after averaging 3.72 yards per carry and 3.74 yards per carry respectively.

Devonta Freeman, who graded out below average as a runner on 65 carries last season as a 4^th round rookie, is expected to get a much bigger role. He’s a good pass catcher who graded out above average in that aspect and above average overall on 237 snaps as a result, catching 30 passes for 225 yards and a touchdown, but he’ll need to improve on his 3.82 YPC average in his 2^nd year in the league in 2015. He’ll be paired with Tevin Coleman, who went in the 3^rd round in this past draft. They’re a pair of very unproven running backs so the Falcons don’t figure to run the ball well again this season either, even if the offensive line will be better.

Coleman was brought in this off-season because they only had one other running back on the roster, besides Freeman, who had at least 1 career carry, journeyman backup Antone Smith. With Coleman being a rookie, that will remain the case, but Smith should still be a clear 3^rd running back. Smith flashed last season, rushing for 144 yards and 2 touchdowns on 23 carries (6.26 YPC), while adding 13 catches for 222 yards and another 3 scores, and grading out above average on Pro Football Focus on 96 snaps. However, the 2009 undrafted free agent has just 44 touches and 148 snaps played in 6 seasons in the league, is going into his age 30 season, and is undersized at just 5-9 190. He’s not a real threat for a significant role, even in an inexperienced backfield.

Grade: C

Receiving Corps

Easily the most helpful offensive player for Matt Ryan over the past few seasons has been wide receiver Julio Jones, who is arguably their best player. Jones only played in 5 games with injury in 2013, but caught 41 of 57 targets (71.9%) for 580 yards and 2 touchdowns on 212 routes run, an average of 2.74 yards per route run, best in the NFL. Through the first 5 weeks of the season, before going down with a season ending foot injury, he was Pro Football Focus’ 4^th ranked wide receiver.

Jones picked up right where he left off in 2014, grading out 6^th among wide receivers and catching 104 passes on 156 attempts (66.7%) for 1593 yards and 6 touchdowns on 585 routes run, an average of 2.72 yards per route run, 5^th in the NFL. Jones enters the contract year of his rookie deal, his age 26 season, with 278 catches for 4330 yards and 26 touchdowns in 49 career games, coming off of 3 straight strong seasons (15^th among wide receivers in 2012 as well). The only issue with him is injuries, as he’s missed 15 games with injury in 4 seasons and has issues with his foot dating back to his collegiate days at the University of Alabama. He should eventually get a long-term deal similar to the 5-year, 70 million dollar deals that Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas got this off-season, most likely from Atlanta. If they can’t agree to a long-term deal with him this off-season, ahead of his contract year, he’ll almost definitely be franchise tagged next off-season.

The rest of the receiving corps is a mess though. Roddy White, at one point, had 6 straight seasons of 1000+ receiving yards, 2007-2012, but he’s been really inefficient over the past 2 seasons. His total numbers haven’t been bad, as he’s caught 143 passes for 1632 yards and 10 touchdowns over the past 2 seasons combined, but it’s been on 1117 routes run, an average of 1.46 yards per route run, mediocre for a #2 receiver in a good passing offense. He’s also graded out 97^th among 111 eligible wide receivers (2013) and 107^th among 110 eligible wide receivers (2014). Things won’t get better, as he heads into his age 34 season in 2015.

White has had a great career since going in the 1st round in 2005 and is currently 38th all-time in receiving yards with 10,357, but even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. White is a noticeably declining player who is at the tail end of his career. Owed a non-guaranteed 4.25 million in his age 35 season in 2016, White is likely in his final season with the Falcons.

The problem is the Falcons don’t have another option behind White. Leonard Hankerson, signing as a free agent on 1-year, 1 million dollar deal, coming over from Washington, is currently expected to be the #3 receiver. He’s impressed the coaching staff and played with new Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan from 2011-2013 with the Redskins, but he hasn’t played since week 11 of the 2013 season thanks to a nasty knee injury, which included a torn ACL. He’ll be 22 months removed from the injury week 1 and, as I mentioned, the off-season reports have been good, but we’ll see what happens in game action. Hankerson is coming off a brutal injury, has missed 33 games with injury in 4 seasons in the NFL, since going in the 3^rd round in 2011, and has never graded out much above average. Even only going into his age 26 season, I don’t see a ton of upside with him.

Hankerson would replace Harry Douglas as the #3 receiver, after he was cut this off-season, going into his age 30 season, coming off a bad year, and owed a non-guaranteed 3.5 million dollar salary. He will have to hold off Devin Hester, who was the 4^th receiver last year, but played a decent amount of snaps, at 396. However, Hester has never graded out above average as a receiver is his career and that won’t change as he heads into his age 32 season. They’d be better off going with the youngster because he’s at has some upside and it sounds like that’s what they’re going to do. 4^th round rookie Justin Hardy could also be in the mix, but he was more drafted for 2016 and beyond. I expect him to be the 5^th receiver as a rookie.

One thing I expect the Falcons to do is run fewer 3-wide receiver sets and run more 2-tight end sets this season. New offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan is a big fan of 2-tight end sets and tight ends in general and the Falcons barely ran them at all last season. #2 tight end Bear Pascoe played just 148 snaps last season, which is how #4 wide receiver Devin Hester was able to play 396, almost three times more. Even #5 receiver Eric Weems had more snaps (202) than Pascoe. They didn’t add a lot of talent at the position this off-season, but they at least added experience and gave themselves more depth and talent than they had last season.

Jacob Tamme is expected to be the starter this season, after signing a 2-year, 3.2 million dollar contract this off-season. He’s not great, but he’ll be better than Levine Toilolo, who was Pro Football Focus’ 64^th ranked tight end out of 67 eligible last season. Tamme has graded out above average 4 times in 7 seasons, including last season, but he’s going into his age 30 season and has never been a consistent starter in his career, averaging 308 snaps per season and only making 23 starts in 7 seasons in the league. The 6-4 232 is a decent pass catcher, but not a capable #1 tight end.

Tony Moeaki also enters the fold as a free agent. Moeaki has missed 44 games with injury in 5 seasons in the league, including all of 2011 and 2013. He graded out 5^th among tight ends in 2010 and 43^rd in 2012, but didn’t appear to be the same player, as a result of all of the injuries, grading out below average on 196 snaps in 6 games. Toilolo will now be the 3^rd tight end, which is the good news, but the bad news is neither of the two tight ends they brought in this off-season are that great and one of them will probably get hurt, forcing Toilolo back into meaningful action. They should be better equipped to deal with weak wide receiver depth this season than last season, but still not that well equipped.

Grade: C+

Defensive Line

The defense is the side of the ball that has the most room for improvement this season, after ranking 27^th in rate of moving the chains allowed in 2013 and 31^st last season. In order to improve the unit, they fired head coach Mike Smith, who comes from a defensive background, and replaced him with Dan Quinn, who has been the defensive coordinator for the Seattle Seahawks over the past 2 seasons. They made the Super Bowl in both of those seasons. Of course, the Seahawks had a solid defense before he became defensive coordinator, but he took them to a next level in place of former Seahawks defensive coordinator Gus Bradley, who was hired by the Jaguars as head coach.

He’ll be implementing a Seattle style 4-3 defense, much like Bradley also runs in Jacksonville. Tyson Jackson will play the Red Bryant spot as a big base run stopping 4-3 defensive end. He fits the bill at 6-4 296 and is a much better run stopper than pass rusher. The 2009 3^rd overall pick was signed to a 5-year, 25 million dollar contract last off-season, after grading out 14^th among 3-4 defensive ends in 2013, including 8^th against the run. However, that contract was a mistake as Jackson graded out below average last season and remains a one-year wonder. He’s graded out below average in 5 of 6 seasons in the league and, aside from 2013, has generally been a bust in his career. He can be a solid two-down 4-3 defensive end, but that’s not that hard to find. He might not return at a 4.75 million dollar non-guaranteed salary in 2016.

The Falcons biggest need going into the draft was to find someone to play the other defensive end spot, like Cliff Avril does in Seattle and Chris Clemons does in Jacksonville. They found exactly that guy with the 6^th overall pick, taking Vic Beasley out of Clemson. Beasley is undersized at 6-3 246, but these types of defenses have usually had undersized defensive ends on one side. Beasley won’t play the run well, but he’s a very explosive pass rusher. He probably won’t come close to his potential until his 2^nd or 3^rd season in the league, but he should provide a much needed edge rusher to a team that’s really needed one over the past two seasons, since losing John Abraham.

Brooks Reed will be the other edge rusher in sub packages, when Jackson comes off the field. He’ll play the Bruce Irvin role, playing outside linebacker in base packages and rushing the passer off the edge in sub packages. That’s not his strength. Reed will boost the Falcons’ run defense, but he’s not the edge rusher they’re paying him like, at him 22.5 million over 5 years with 9 million guaranteed. Reed, a 2011 2nd round pick, has graded out above average in 3 of the 4 seasons he’s been in the league, making 54 starts in the process. The only exception was 2013, when he graded out 41st out of 42 eligible players. However, Reed has graded out negatively as a pass rusher in all 4 seasons, doing his best work against the run and, to a lesser extent, in coverage.

The Falcons also have Adrian Clayborn as pass rush depth. Clayborn was a first round pick of the Buccaneers in 2011 and he had a decent rookie year, struggling mightily against the run, but getting good pass rush and overall grading out slightly below average on Pro Football Focus. The story of his career from there was injuries though, as he’s played just 20 games over the past 3 seasons. He missed all but 3 games in 2012 with a torn ACL, struggled mightily in his first year back in 2013, grading out 47th out of 52 eligible 4-3 defensive ends, and, just when there was optimism for his future again in 2014, he tore his biceps and missed all but 1 game. There’s still upside here and he’s a decent flier, but he’s nothing more than a depth player.

Kroy Biermann is another player in the mix and he actually led the Falcons’ defensive line with 867 snaps last season, but struggled and was part of the reason why they had a poor pass rush. Biermann, a 2008 5th round pick, started his career well, grading out above average in each of his first 3 seasons in the league, including Pro Football Focus’ 9^th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2009 and their 19^th ranked in 2010. However, he graded out 57^th out of 67 eligible in 2011, below average again in 2012, was limited to 2 games by a torn Achilles in 2013, and then graded out below average again in 2014. Now Biermann heads into his age 30 season. He’s still capable of a significant role, but he’s an unspectacular player and fits much better as a 3^rd or 4^th defensive end.

At defensive tackle, Ra’shede Hageman and Paul Soliai should be the starters, but neither one of them will play a lot of snaps. Hageman is inexperienced, grading out below average on 227 snaps as a 2^nd round rookie last season, while Soliai is just a two down player. Soliai has graded out below average in 6 of 8 seasons in the NFL, since going in the 4^th round in 2007, including 3 of the last 4 seasons. He’s averaged just 531 snaps per season over the past 4 seasons and won’t be getting any better going into his age 32 season in 2015. Like Jackson, he was a mistake on a 5-year, 32 million dollar deal last off-season. He will somewhere play around the 519 snaps he played last season, but Hageman won’t play near the 708 snaps that Jonathan Babineaux played as the starter last season.

Babineaux played pretty well last season, grading out above average, something he’s done in 7 of 8 seasons in Pro Football Focus’ history. However, going into his age 34 season, the Falcons are slowly phasing him out of the defense. He’ll play much fewer snaps this season, rotating heavily with Hageman. A much better pass rusher than run stopper, Babineaux should play primarily in sub packages this season. Grady Jarrett, a 5^th round rookie, should also be in the mix for the snaps. Even though he was drafted so late, he could still be a good contributor as a rookie because he was an absolute steal in the 5^th round. Like Geno Atkins and Mike Daniels before him, he was under-drafted based on his height and has a good chance to prove a lot of people wrong like they did. It’s still a below average defensive line, but they’re getting better, especially if some rookies can step up.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

I already mentioned Brooks Reed will be the third outside linebacker, playing primarily in base packages and rushing the passer off the edge in sub packages. Paul Worrilow and Joplu Bartu will probably lead the position in snaps played. They’re a pair of 2013 undrafted free agents who have played a significant amount of action over the first two seasons of their careers. Worrilow has really struggled in two seasons in the league, grading out 45^th among 55 middle linebackers in 2013 and 59^th among 60 middle linebackers in 2014. The league let him go undrafted just two years ago and he hasn’t done anything to suggest he’s a starter long-term.

Bartu has been a little better, but he’s still graded out below average in both seasons, including 33^rd out of 40^th eligible 4-3 outside linebackers on 496 snaps last season. He played the run well as a rookie, grading out 6^th among 4-3 outside linebackers against the run in 2013, but was so bad in coverage that he still graded out below average overall. He’s a solid two-down run stopper at best. He shouldn’t be an every down player. He could be pushed for snaps by Justin Durant, but Durant is a similar player. He was drafted in the 2nd round in 2007 and has quietly had a very solid career, grading out above average in 7 of the 8 seasons he’s been in the NFL. However, he’s averaged just 585 snaps per season, often playing as purely a two-down run stopper, a role he excels in. Over the past 2 seasons, he’s played just a combined 538 snaps and he’s going into his age 30 season, coming off a torn biceps injury. It’s not a strong group of linebackers.

Grade: C-

Secondary

The secondary was the best part of the Falcons’ horrible defense and should remain that this season, even if they get a little bit better in the front 7. Veterans Robert McClain and Josh Wilson are gone, but they struggled last season on 642 and 458 snaps respectively in 2014 anyway. Now they’re very young in their top-3 at cornerback. Desmond Trufant, a 2013 1^st round pick, is one of the most underrated cornerbacks in the NFL. Trufant has graded out 7^th and 6^th among cornerbacks in 2013 and 2014 respectively to start his career and should continue being dominant, going into his age 24 season in 2015. He’s one of the best cornerbacks in the whole league.

Robert Alford, a 2^nd round pick in 2013 in the same draft as Trufant, will be the other starter. He hasn’t been nearly as good in two seasons in the league, grading out 87^th among 110 eligible cornerbacks in 2013 on 585 snaps and 81^st among 108 eligible cornerbacks in 2014 on 630 snaps. He might not be ready to be a starter, if he ever will be. The Falcons used a 2^nd round pick on Jalen Collins in this past draft and, while he’ll start the season as the 3^rd cornerback, he could move into the starting lineup if Alford continues to struggle. He’s no guarantee to be an upgrade though.

Dwight Lowery was their best safety last season, making 16 starts and grading out 43^rd among eligible safeties last season (above average), but he’s gone as a free agent to Indianapolis this off-season. That might not matter because William Moore will be returning from injury, after being limited to 327 snaps in 7 games last season. He’s graded out below average in each of the last 2 seasons and missed 33 games with injury in 6 seasons in the league and is unlikely to get better or more durable going into his age 30 season. However, he does have some bounce back potential, after grading out 11^th among safeties in 2011 and 15^th among safeties in 2012. He’s unlikely to be a serious downgrade on Lowery, but he won’t be as good.

Kemal Ishmael, who stepped into serious action last season because of Moore’s injuries, will remain the starter in 2015, this time opposite William Moore. Ishmael graded out below average last season, but he wasn’t awful. The 2013 7^th round pick played just 3 snaps as a rookie and doesn’t seem to have too bright of a future, but he’s not a horrible starter. It’s not a great secondary, but it’s easily their best defensive unit. Trufant is one of the few bright spots on a team that’s become quickly devoid of talent.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

It’s crazy how quickly this team has fallen to the bottom of the NFL, but, if you look at their roster, they once again appear to have one of the worst rosters in the NFL. Outside of Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Desmond Trufant, they really don’t have much other than problems throughout this roster. Having the quarterback position stabilized is very valuable and Ryan will help them win some games that they otherwise shouldn’t have, but I see this team once again in the cellar of the NFL, after winning a combined 10 games over the past 2 seasons. As with all teams, I’ll have official win/loss records for the Falcons after I’ve done all teams’ previews.

Final Update (9/9/15): The Falcons are the only team in the NFC South that didn’t have a rough August and they actually got better by adding Andy Levitre at left guard in a trade with the Titans. Levitre struggled last year, but was one of the better guards in the league before that and is a good fit for the Falcons’ zone blocking scheme. However, this is still one of the least talented teams in the NFL. Their quarterback play and their weak schedule will win them some games, but I still have them in last.

Prediction: 5-11 4th in NFC South

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Carolina Panthers 2015 NFL Season Preview

July 24, 2015 stevenlourie 2015 NFL Season Previews, Panthers, Uncategorized

Quarterback

The Panthers were one of the best teams in the whole NFL in 2013, winning 12 games and the NFC South and finishing the season 4^th in rate of moving the chains differential. They were dominant on both sides of the ball, ranking 6^th in rate of moving the chains and 5^th in rate of moving the chains allowed. In 2014, the Panthers repeated as NFC South champions, the first time there had been a repeat winner in division history. However, they weren’t nearly as good as they finished at 7-8-1, one of just two teams to ever make the playoffs with a losing record. They were a little bit better than their record in rate of moving the chains, ranking 14^th in rate of moving the chains differential, but they still weren’t great. They finished 12^th in rate of moving the chains and 18^th in rate of moving the chains allowed, both steep drop offs from 2013.

The reason for that is the Panthers lost a lot in free agency last off-season. Cam Newton had the worst quarterback rating of his career at 82.1, completing 58.5% of his passes for an average of 6.98 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. However, a lot of that was the fault of his weak receiving corps and offensive line. Newton still graded out 8^th among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus, making it 4 straight seasons where he’s graded out above average to start his career. He graded out 14^th in 2011, 11^th in 2012, and 15^th in 2013.

Even though he was only average as a passer, he remained arguably the best running quarterback in the NFL, rushing for 539 yards and 5 touchdowns on 103 attempts. In his career, he’s rushed for 2571 yards and 33 touchdowns on 467 attempts in just 4 seasons. On top of that, he’s completed 59.5% of his passes for an average of 7.50 YPA, 82 touchdowns, and 54 interceptions, despite generally having weak supporting casts. This off-season he signed a 5-year, 103.8 million dollar extension that locks him in as their franchise quarterback into the future.

Newton’s only issue last season was injuries, but he didn’t let it affect his play much. He only missed 2 games with injury (one of which was actually the result of a car accident), but he dealt with back, ankle, rib, and foot problems throughout the season. However, those were the first 2 games he’s missed with injury in his career. He takes a lot of hits from pass rushers as a result of a weak offensive line, but he generally is able to tough it out through them thanks to his 6-5 244 frame, much like Ben Roethlisberger early in his career, so I wouldn’t call him injury prone at all.

Newton was especially good in his final 4 games after the Panthers’ week 12 bye, as he was able to rest his whole body. He completed 58.3% of his passes for an average of 6.39 yards per attempt, 6 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions over that tiny period, while rushing for 246 yards and 3 touchdowns on 39 attempts. He continued with that in the playoffs, completing 60.3% of his passes for an average of 6.53 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, while rushing for 72 yards on 18 attempts. If the Panthers are able to protect Newton better and his supporting cast is able to be more helpful in 2015, the Panthers should be a much improved offense. Newton is one of their few offensive building blocks.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

Of course, it wasn’t just Newton getting healthier that led to the Panthers’ improved offense after the bye. The Panthers moved the chains at a 77.38% rate in their final 5 games, allowing them to steal the division. That includes a game that Newton missed with injury, as backup Derek Anderson led them to move the chains at a 76.32% rate week 15, albiet against the hapless Buccaneers. One of the big improvements after the bye was a season ending injury to Nate Chandler, who graded out 68^th among 84 eligible offensive tackles in 11 games at right tackle. He was put on IR during the bye.

It was addition by subtraction and allowed undrafted rookie Mike Remmers to step into the starting lineup. He impressed, grading out above average on 367 snaps in 5 starts. He enters the season as the favorite at right tackle, but he’s hard to trust. No one drafted him last off-season, which is still relevant because he’s still inexperienced. He also struggled mightily in the playoffs. He’s still far from being an established starter, but the Panthers don’t have another option and he has at least some upside.

The biggest issue on the offensive line last season was left tackle, as Byron Bell graded out 83^rd among 84 eligible offensive tackles in 15 starts. The Panthers didn’t really do much to fix that position this off-season, replacing one of the worst tackles in the NFL over the past few seasons with another one of the worst tackles in the NFL over the past few seasons, Michael Oher. Oher was cut by the Titans this off-season 1 year into a 4-year, 20 million dollar deal, despite the fact that they paid him 9 million guaranteed for one season. The Panthers inexplicably signed him to a 2-year, 7 million dollar deal this off-season, didn’t add any competition for him at left tackle through the tackle, and have spent the off-season talking him up. He didn’t deserve anything more than the veteran’s minimum this off-season.

The big contract the Titans gave Oher last off-season seemed doomed from the start. He was coming off of an awful season to end a generally disappointing 5-year tenure in Baltimore, after going in the first round in 2009. In 2013, his final year in Baltimore, he was Pro Football Focus 68th ranked offensive tackle out of 76 eligible. In 2014, his first year in Tennessee, Oher predictably struggled once again, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 75th ranked offensive tackle out of 84 eligible in 11 games, before going down for the season with an injury. He hasn’t graded out above average since his rookie year in 2009.

Between his struggles and Remmers’ inexperience, the Panthers don’t have a strong group of tackles. The Panthers used a 4^th round pick on offensive tackle Daryl Williams, but he doesn’t figure to be much of a help as a rookie. Poor tackle play was a big reason why the Panthers’ offensive line was so bad last season, as they ranked 30^th on Pro Football Focus in team pass blocking grade and 22^nd in run blocking grade. They really missed Jordan Gross and Travelle Wharton, key players upfront on the 2013 team who retired last off-season. That’s a big part of why Newton sustained so many injuries. A poor offensive line is definitely not part of the recipe for keeping your highly paid franchise quarterback on the field for 16 games, even as big as Newton is.

Things are better on the interior. Amini Silatolu, a 2012 2^nd round pick, played just 1 game after week 6 last season thanks to injury and, like Chandler, he was drastically outplayed by a rookie and seems to have lost his starting job permanently. Andrew Norwell, like Mike Remmers, was an undrafted rookie, but he graded out 15^th among guards on 696 snaps in 10 starts so he’s a little bit more experienced than Norwell. Silatolu remains in the mix for the starting job, but is seen as a large underdog. After struggling as a starter as a rookie, Silatolu has been limited to 10 games in the past 2 seasons combined thanks to injury. Norwell is not a proven starter yet, but he’s the better option.

Another rookie played well at right guard too, this time one that was actually drafted. Trai Turner, a 3^rd rounder out of LSU, graded out 23^rd among guards despite playing just 673 snaps (9 starts in 13 games). He was significantly better than his eventual backup Fernando Velasco, who graded out below average on 407 snaps, so having Turner healthy and starting for the whole season should be a boost, but he’s also unproven. A lot is dependent on unproven young players (who generally weren’t drafted high) upfront for Carolina, which is concerning, but the Panthers played their best offensive football last season down the stretch, thanks largely to these rookies.

Ryan Kalil is the only proven veteran upfront for the Panthers, as the center is going into his 9^th year in the league, after getting drafted in the 2^nd round in the 2007 NFL Draft. He’s made 100 starts in 8 seasons in the league and has graded out above average in 5 of the last 6 seasons (with the exception being an injury shortened 2012 season), including 11^th last season. Still only going into his age 30 season, he’s one of the better centers in the NFL and definitely the Panthers’ best offensive lineman. It should be an improved offensive line this season, but that wouldn’t be saying much and they’re still very dependent on unproven young players.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

Cam Newton and the offensive line weren’t the only ones that played better after the bye last season for the Panthers. Running back Jonathan Stewart rushed for 486 yards and a touchdown on 91 attempts in those 5 games (5.34 yards per carry). He was helped by Newton’s strong play and the offensive line’s strong play, but I think he was the single biggest reason why, after the bye, the 2014 Panthers resembled the 2013 Panthers in terms of their ability to move the chains consistently. The difference is Stewart was finally healthy, after missing 3 games with injury and being limited to 84 carries in 8 games before the bye because of injury.

Injuries have been a huge problem with him over the past 3 seasons. Not only did he miss those 3 games, but he also missed 17 games with injury in 2012 and 2013 respectively, making it 20 missed games in 3 seasons. He’s also never had more than 221 carries in a season. He’s a great running back when on the field though, with a 4.63 YPC average and 30 career rushing touchdowns on 1041 attempts, grading out above average in 5 of 7 seasons in the NFL since being drafted in the 1^st round in 2008. He’s also only going into his age 28 season and coming off of a season where he averaged 4.62 yards per carry and graded out 7^th at his position on Pro Football Focus. If he can stay healthy, he could have a strong year and go over 1000+ yards for only the 2^nd time in his career, but that’s a big if.

The Panthers better hope he can stay healthy because their depth is suspect, after the release of DeAngelo Williams (1167 carries over the past 7 seasons) this off-season. Williams averaged just 3.53 yards per carry last season, so he won’t really be missed, but they don’t have a good alternative #2 back. 5^th round rookie Cameron Artis-Payne could easily win the #2 job. His only veteran competition is Jordan Todman, who has rushed for just 450 yards and 3 touchdowns on 111 attempts (4.05 YPC) in 4 years in the league, since going in the 6^th round in 2011. It’s not a good backup running back situation, especially for a team who is going to be counting on an injury prone back to have 250+ carries, which would be a career high.

Mike Tolbert is an experienced back who is decently well paid, set to make 2.45 million in the final year of a 4-year, 10 million dollar deal. The 5-9 243 pound fullback type only averages 3.81 yards per carry in his career and averaged just 2.11 yards per carry last season. Once a solid fullback (2^nd in 2012 and 3^rd in 2013), Tolbert was all the way down at 22^nd out of 23 eligible fullbacks last season and looks like a declining player going into his age 30 season. He’s not a real candidate for serious carries. Cam Newton has a very good chance to finish in the top-2 among Panthers in rushing yards for the 4^th straight season in 2015.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

In addition to the offensive line, another place the Panthers had serious losses last season was in the receiving corps. Both starting receivers from 2013, Steve Smith and Brandon LaFell, left last off-season. Neither one of them was great in 2013, but both had better seasons elsewhere in 2014 and the Panthers didn’t do a great job of replacing them, leading to a poor receiving corps. A combination of a receiving corps that couldn’t consistently get open and an offensive line that couldn’t consistently protect long enough made life very tough Cam Newton in 2014.

It might sound weird to stay that Newton had a weak receiving corps because the Panthers were one of five teams with two 1000+ yard receivers (Calvin Johnson/Golden Tate, Vincent Jackson/Mike Evans, Randall Cobb/Jordy Nelson, Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders). However, that was largely because they didn’t have any receiving options after wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin and tight end Greg Olsen. Those two received 49.25% of the Panthers targets, the highest percentage by any two teammates.

Benjamin had a big statistical year as a rookie, as the 6-5 240 pound first round pick caught 73 passes for 1008 yards and 9 touchdowns. Even in the golden era of passing offenses in the past 10 years, the average first round rookie wideout has averaged just 48 catches for 703 yards and 4 touchdowns. However, Benjamin didn’t actually play that well. That might sound weird, but any time you finish 20th among wide receivers in receiving yards and 5th among wide receivers in targets, you weren’t very efficient. He graded out 85^th among 110 eligible wide receivers as a result. The good news is that Benjamin still has a bright future, only going into his age 24 season, and could definitely be improved in 2015. As I mentioned earlier, it’s tough for even the most talented of rookie receivers to transition to the NFL.

Benjamin was definitely the best of the Panthers’ wide receivers last season though, hence why he got so many targets. The Panthers’ next three wide receivers (Jerricho Cotchery, Jason Avant, and Corey Brown) combined for just 4 more targets than Benjamin last season. Benjamin deserves credit for dealing with weekly double teams as a rookie. The Panthers added Devin Funchess in the 2^nd round of the draft and he’s expected to start opposite Benjamin, moving the veteran Cotchery into more of a reserve role. He should have a lot of the same issues adjusting to the NFL quickly as Benjamin did and, talent wise, the 6-4 232 pound collegiate wide receiver/tight end is, at best, a poor man’s Benjamin, so he should have serious efficiency problems. Rated as a major reach by College Football Focus, Funchess is unlikely to be an asset as a rookie and maybe not ever.

Cotchery, meanwhile, will compete with Corey Brown for the #3 receiver job this off-season. Cotchery is the veteran of the bunch, while Brown is yet another undrafted free agent from the 2014 class, but the youngster would seem to have the advantage. He flashed last season, grading out slightly above average on 314 snaps as a rookie, catching 21 passes for 292 yards and 2 touchdowns and adding 8 carries for 93 yards on the year, taking over the #3 receiver job following the release of veteran Jason Avant.

The 5-11 180 pounder has obvious physical limitations and there’s a reason why no one drafted him, but he’s a nice niche player as a slot receiver/gadget player out of the backfield. Cotchery, meanwhile, was overstretched as a starting receiver last year, playing 803 snaps and grading out below average. He’s graded out below average in 3 of the last 5 seasons (averaging 545 snaps per season over that time period) and now heads into his age 33 season. He’s a depth receiver at best at this stage of his career.

The Panthers don’t just have depth problems at wide receiver; they do at tight end as well. The Panthers also really missed blocking tight end Ben Hartsock last season, after he retired as well (like Gross and Wharton). Ed Dickson was the #2 tight end in 2014 and really sucked. That’s no surprise, considering he has graded out below average in 4 of 5 seasons in the NFL (4 with the Ravens and the last one with the Panthers), since the Ravens drafted him in the 3rd round in 2010, including each of the last 3 seasons. He’s been especially bad in each of the past 2 seasons, grading out 63rd out of 64 eligible tight ends in 2013 and 60th out of 67 eligible last season. Why the Panthers re-signed him to a 3-year, 6.8 million dollar deal this off-season to play the same role again is beyond me.

Greg Olsen is the saving grace of this receiving corps and their best offensive weapon. Like Benjamin, he had a 1000+ yard season, but, unlike Benjamin, he didn’t need a ton of targets to do it. He finished 2^nd among tight ends in receiving yards, only behind Rob Gronkowski, and 3^rd in targets. A strong blocker and all-around tight end as well, Olsen was Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked tight end last season. This is nothing too new for him (although that was a career best), as he’s graded out above average in 7 of 8 seasons he’s been in the league since being drafted in the 1st round in 2007, including above average as a pass catcher in all 8 seasons.

He’s not flashy, but he’s productive (3 straight seasons of 800+ receiving yards), he doesn’t have a weakness, and he’s a huge part of Carolina’s offense. He also hasn’t missed a game since his rookie year in 2007. He’s going into his age 30 season, but, coming off the best season of his career, he’s showing no signs of declining any time soon. The Panthers clearly trust him long-term, giving him a 3-year, 22.5 million dollar extension this off-season, ahead of a contract year where he was set to make just 5.5 million. He’s scheduled to make 28 million dollars total over the next 4 seasons. Other than him, the Panthers’ receivers are not a strong group at all though, which makes him all the more important.

Grade: C+

Defensive Line

Not unlike the offense, the defense also declined significantly from 2013 to 2014, and for the same reason, as the Panthers suffered a bunch of losses on defense. The losses were most numerous in the secondary and I’ll get to those, but the biggest loss was the loss of defensive end Greg Hardy. Hardy was one of the best defensive players in the game in 2012 and 2013, leading to the Panthers giving him an 11.3 million dollar franchise tag to keep him away from free agency last off-season. However, Hardy ended up playing just 1 game, missing the final 15 with a team issued suspension, facing public pressure to keep Hardy off-the-field while he was being tried for domestic abuse. Hardy was not brought back this off-season, even though a jury threw out a judge’s conviction on a technicality.

In his absence, they didn’t fare well at his old defensive end spot, as Wes Horton, Mario Addison, and Kony Ealy graded out 49th, 39th, and 56th respectively out of 59 eligible 4-3 defensive ends. Ealy was the worst of the bunch, despite playing just 368 snaps. No 4-3 defensive end played fewer snaps and graded out worse at the position. However, he’s the favorite for the starting job in 2015, thanks to his status as a 2014 2^nd round pick. He still has upside, but his career is off to a bad start.

Charles Johnson is locked into the other starting spot once again. The 2007 3^rd round pick has made 81 starts in 109 games in 8 years in the league and has graded out above average in the last 7, including 11^th last season. He was re-signed to a monster 6-year, 76 million dollar deal 4 off-seasons ago and, while he hasn’t lived up to his outstanding 2011 season, when he graded out #3 among 4-3 defensive ends, he’s still been a huge asset for them. Only going into his age 29 season, I expect that to continue, but he’ll need to be a little bit more than just an asset to justify a 11 million dollar non-guaranteed salary for 2016, his age 30 season. This could be his 9^th and final season in Carolina.

Wes Horton and Mario Addison return and will compete for the #3 defensive end job, which will rotate heavily with Kony. Horton, a 2013 undrafted free agent, has struggled mightily in his first 2 seasons in the league, grading out well below average on 174 snaps in 2013 and 475 snaps in 2014. He’s a long shot for the #3 job. The real battle will be between Addison and Frank Alexander, who is back on good terms with the team after missing 14 games with suspension last season, as a result of multiple failed drug tests.

Addison, a 2011 undrafted free agent, graded out above average in both 2012 and 2013, but wasn’t very good in 2014 and has averaged just 240 snaps per season in his 4-year career. Alexander, meanwhile, played just 24 snaps last season, as a result of the aforementioned suspensions, and graded out below average both as a 4^th round rookie in 2012 on 568 snaps and again 2013 on 239 snaps. Outside of Johnson, defensive end is a weak position for the Panthers.

Things are much better at defensive though, where Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short will both start for the 3^rd straight season, after the Panthers drafted them in the 1^st and 2^nd rounds respectively in the 2013 NFL Draft. Lotulelei has graded out 17^th and 24^th among defensive tackles in the last 2 seasons respectively, while Short has graded out 13^th and 9^th among defensive tackles over those 2 seasons. Short is the better of the two and one of the better defensive tackles in the NFL, but Lotulelei is solid as well. They are a real strength on this team and they should continue to play well, as both are only going into their age 26 seasons.

Dwan Edwards remains as a veteran backup and will once again be the 3rd defensive tackle. Edwards has graded out below average in each of the last 5 seasons, averaging 595 snaps per season over that time period. In 2014, he graded out 63rd out of 81 eligible defensive tackles on 591 snaps. Going into his age 34 season, things aren’t going to get better. The Panthers overpaid him on a 2-year, 4 million dollar deal this off-season. The depth isn’t ideal, but it’s a strong defensive line thanks to the presence of Short, Lotulelei, and Johnson.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Panthers shockingly drafted linebacker Shaq Thompson 25^th overall. He wasn’t on a lot of people’s first round radar and he was rated as one of the worst picks of the first round by College Football Focus, who didn’t feel he was anything special as a prospect. The fact that it was seen as a surprise wasn’t just because it was such a reach, but because Thompson’s best attribute is his coverage ability at 6-0 228 an the Panthers already have two outstanding coverage linebackers in Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis. They don’t need a 3^rd linebacker in sub packages.

Thompson is a raw athlete who can play both linebacker and safety and who also dabbled at running back in college, but he can’t play safety in sub packages. He could play there in base packages, but hasn’t seen much, if any action there this off-season, which suggests he’ll spend his rookie year as the 3^rd linebacker, playing just in base packages as a run stopping specialist. Considering stopping the run is the undersized linebacker’s weakness, that’s not a good fit for his skill set and he might not even grade out above average in limited action like AJ Klein did in that role last season.

Klein, as the 3^rd linebacker, played just 289 snaps last season because they frequently went to 3-cornerback sets last season, not trusting their secondary to be able to cover with 4 and trusting their linebackers to stop the run with 2. Thompson should play more than that this season, but I don’t see him playing much more than 500 snaps as a rookie. He just doesn’t fill a pressing need and simply adds to a strength. Long-term, his best case scenario is a poor man’s version of Thomas Davis, another undersized outside linebacker at 6-1 231, but in the short-term, I don’t see him being an asset.

Fortunately for the Panthers, Kuechly and Davis are so good. Kuechly, the 9^th overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, has graded out 7^th, 8^th, and 1^st among middle linebackers in 2012, 2013, and 2014 respectively and is among the best in the game at his position. Only going into his age 24 season, Kuechly might just be entering his prime. He’s owed just 13.2 million over the next 2 seasons, but the Panthers have plenty of incentive to get a long-term extension done with him over the next calendar year ahead of a 2016 contract year, so that deal could happen at some point soon. He’s expected to be the highest paid middle linebacker in NFL history.

Davis is older, already going into his age 32 season, but he’s been almost as good over the past 2 seasons, grading out 4^th among 4-3 outside linebackers in 2013 and 5^th in 2014. Davis has somewhat miraculously played in 46 of 48 games over the past 3 seasons combined, after being limited to 9 games total from 2009-2011 by 3 separate ACL tears. Davis has graded out above average in each of the last 3 seasons, especially dominating over the past 2. You do worry about him going into his age 32 season with that kind of injury history, but he’s shown no signs of decline yet. The Kuechly/Davis duo is the best part of the Panthers and one of the best linebacker duos in the NFL.

Grade: A

Secondary

As I mentioned, the part of the defense that had the most numerous losses from 2013 to 2014 was the secondary. The Panthers lost 4 of their top-5 defensive backs, a combined 3200 snaps walking out the door with Captain Munnerlyn, Drayton Florence, Quentin Mikell, and Michael Mitchell. Munnerleyn and Florence were Pro Football Focus’ 10th and 19th ranked cornerbacks in 2013, while Mikell and Mitchell were Pro Football Focus’ 31st and 33rd ranked safeties. All 4 of those players were signed for close to the veteran’s minimum in 2013 though, as the Panthers did a fantastic job finding cheap values. They attempted to do the same again last off-season, but that proved to be easier said than done. Their secondary was definitely worse in 2014 than 2013 and their whole defense was worse, in part, because of that.

They should have more continuity this season, as they only lost cornerback Antoine Cason and safety Thomas DeCoud this off-season. They both sucked last season anyway, grading out 97th out of 108 eligible cornerbacks and 74th out of 87 eligible safeties respectively on Pro Football Focus. In addition to the improved continuity, the Panthers should be better in the secondary this season because those two are gone, addition by subtraction. There’s a reason why both players remain unsigned as of this writing, as free agents.

Bene Benwikere was probably the Panthers’ best defensive back last season, a pleasant surprise on 459 snaps as a 5th round rookie. After grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 18^th ranked cornerback last season, despite the limited playing time, he is expected to get a chance as an every down starting cornerback in 2015. Like guys like Remmers and Norwell on offense, the fact that he fell to the 5th round of the draft isn’t irrelevant for him yet, because he’s so inexperienced, but he has solid upside and could be a solid starter in 2015.

Josh Norman will probably be the other starter, after grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 27^th ranked cornerback on 647 snaps last season. However, the 2012 5th round pick enters his contract year as a one-year wonder, after grading out 96^th among 113 eligible cornerbacks on 788 snaps as a rookie and grading out below average on 103 snaps in an injury shortened 2013 season. He could be a solid starter again in 2015, but he’s really hard to trust because of his history.

Charles Tillman and Melvin White will compete for the #3 job this off-season, moving Benwikere to the slot in sub packages. Tillman was Pro Football Focus’ 3^rd ranked cornerback as recently as 2012, but was limited to 10 games in 2013 and 2014 respectively by two separate triceps tears. Heading into his age 34 season, Tillman’s best days are definitely behind him and he reportedly considered retirement this off-season, before the Panthers gave him a chance on a 1-year, 1.75 million dollar deal. They were likely the only team to offer him more than the minimum. Even if he’s healthy, he could lose out to Melvin White for the #3 job. White is a 2013 undrafted free agent has graded out below average on 697 snaps in 2013 and 522 snaps in 2014. Last season he was especially bad, grading out 94^th among 108 eligible cornerbacks.

Meanwhile at safety, Tre Boston, another rookie who graded in limited action last season, will be taking over for DeCoud. He flashed on 369 snaps, grading out above average and 21^st among safeties, with no one playing fewer snaps and grading out better at the position. The 2014 4^th round pick is in the same boat as Benwikere. He’s flashed in limited action, but it’s hard to trust him in a starting role because of his inexperience and his draft status. However, like Benwikere should be an upgrade over Cason, I do expect Boston to be an upgrade over DeCoud.

Roman Harper is locked into the other starting job again. While the concern with Boston is that he’s too young and inexperienced, the concern with Harper is that he’s going into his age 33 season. While he graded out slightly below average last season, that might not be the case in 2015, especially since Harper really struggled in the seasons prior to arriving in Carolina. He graded out below average in 2011, 2012, and 2013, including 86^th among 88 eligible in 2012, which led to a significantly reduced role in 2013 (374 snaps) prior to his release from New Orleans. He’s really hard to trust. It’s once again a patchwork secondary, but they’ve done a solid job patching it together and they’re not quite going to be terrible as a unit.

Grade: C

Conclusion

The Panthers had arguably the strongest rookie class in the NFL last season. It’s not even just 1^st round pick Kelvin Benjamin, and 2^nd round pick Kony Ealy actually really struggled as a rookie. However, 5 players drafted in the 3^rd round or later (or not drafted at all) figure to start for them this season and all 5 graded out above average last season, 3^rd round guard Trai Turner, 4^th round safety Tre Boston, 5^th round cornerback Bene Benwikere, undrafted guard Andrew Norwell, and undrafted offensive tackle Mike Remmers.

That makes them a young team, relying on a lot of unproven players who weren’t regarded highly coming out of college, but those 5 will just need to complement their better players as, by my count, they have at least 7 of the top-200 players in the NFL, quarterback Cam Newton, tight end Greg Olsen, center Ryan Kalil, defensive end Charles Johnson, defensive tackle Kawaan Short, outside linebacker Thomas Davis, and middle linebacker Luke Kuechly. They should be better in 2015 than they were in 2014, especially given the way they closed out last season once all of their young talent started clicking.

That being said, they still have major holes at certain spots and I really don’t like what they did this off-season. They overpaid for washed up veterans like Michael Oher, Dwan Edwards, Ed Dickson, and Charles Tillman, all of whom weren’t worth more than minimum deals. I think they also reached majorly with their first 2 draft picks, Shaq Thompson and Devin Funchess, and they only had 5 draft picks overall. That being said, GM Dave Gettleman did a great job of finding values in the draft and in free agency in his first 2 seasons on the job, taking over a team that was in a lot of trouble cap-wise after the end of the Marty Hurney era. Perhaps he’ll surprise again. If he does, the Panthers should win the NFC South for the 3rd straight year, but I have them right on the borderline with the Saints. The Saints have the better quarterback, but the Panthers have the better team, so it’s tough. As with all teams, I’ll have official win/loss records for the Panthers after I’ve done all teams’ previews.

Final Update (9/9/15): The Saints had a bunch of losses defensively over the past month, but the Panthers are in a position to take advantage. Kelvin Benjamin is out for the year and rookie Devin Funchess unsurprisingly still couldn’t nail down a starting job, meaning he, Corey Brown, Jerricho Cotchery, and Ted Ginn will all action at wide receiver. Greg Olsen is Cam Newton’s only reliable pass catcher. On top of that, defensive tackle Star Lotulelei will miss time with a foot problem.

Prediction: 8-8 2nd in NFC South

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New Orleans Saints 2015 NFL Season Preview

July 23, 2015 stevenlourie 2015 NFL Season Previews, Saints, Uncategorized

Quarterback

Many see Drew Brees as a declining quarterback, following a 2014 season in which the Saints, with high expectations coming into the season, finished 7-9 and out of the playoffs. However, that’s putting too much value in team wins as an individual quarterback statistic. It’s still a team game and the Saints had the worst defense in the NFL last season, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76.68% rate. The Saints were also better their record, finishing 11^th in rate of moving the chains differential, as their offense finished 2^nd in the NFL in rate of moving the chains (only behind Green Bay), moving them at a 79.14% rate. The Saints were just kept down by the usual fluky things that common fans put too much stock into that tend to be very inconsistent on a year-to-year or week-to-week basis, turnover margin (-13), return touchdown margin (-4), fumble recovery rate (37.84%), and record in games decided by a touchdown or less (3-5).

In reality, Brees was the Saints’ best player last season and the biggest reason they had any sort of success, leading a dominant offense. Brees completed 69.2% of his passes for an average of 7.51 YPA, 33 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions and ranked 2^nd among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus, only behind MVP Aaron Rodgers. That’s very much in line with what we’ve come to expect from Brees and doesn’t suggest any sort of decline has happened yet. He’s graded out 3^rd, 7^th, 3^rd, 4^th, 1^st, 4^th, 2^nd, and 2^nd respectively from 2007-2014 in the 8 years of Pro Football Focus’ history and has completed 67.8% of his passes for an average of 7.71 YPA, 290 touchdowns, and 130 interceptions over that time period.

He’s the only quarterback in the NFL to grade out in the top-4 in each of the last 6 seasons and the top-7 in each of the last 8 seasons. There’s an argument to be made that he’s still the 2^nd best quarterback in the NFL. All this isn’t to say that there isn’t some concern Brees that will decline in the future, as he enters his age 36 season, but the common narrative that this decline has already started isn’t based in any sort of fact and we’ve seen plenty of top level quarterbacks still have success into their mid-30s in recent years (Brett Favre, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, etc.). I’m still very high on Brees. Garrett Grayson, drafted in the 3^rd round in this past draft, was drafted much more to be a backup than a long-term successor and certainly isn’t someone who is close to putting any sort of pressure on Brees in 2015. Brees hasn’t missed a game with injury since 2004, so Grayson probably won’t see any sort of real action this season.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

Brees may see a decrease in production this season, but the reason won’t necessarily be age. The Saints went all in on last season, a plan that backfired big time for a variety of reasons, and ended up in salary cap hell this off-season, which forced them to completely reinvent their roster. They’re likely going to be better in some ways this season, but there’s no denying that their roster is worse overall, so they’re not a lock to make it back into the playoffs this season, even though they play in a terrible division and were a lot better than their record last season.

The Saints got rid of two of Brees’ favorite targets this off-season, Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills, and didn’t replace either of them, which will undoubtedly hurt his ability to consistently string together long drives like he did last season. They also figure to pass the ball a lot less often this season, as a result of those moves, after averaging 661 pass attempts per season over the past 5 seasons, most in the NFL during that time period. That will require them to be better defensively and running the ball, but I think they should be.

Brees’ favorite receiver this season could be Brandin Cooks, their 2014 1^st round pick. Cooks kind of got lost in last year’s outstanding rookie receiver class because he wasn’t as good as guys like Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, Sammy Watkins, and Kelvin Benjamin and because he missed the final 6 games of the season with a broken wrist, but he was playing pretty well before going down. He finished the season with 53 catches on 65 attempts (81.5%) for 550 yards and 3 touchdowns on 353 routes run, an average of 1.56 yards per route run, while grading out only slightly below average.

Rookie receivers aren’t supposed to produce big numbers, even first round picks. Even in the golden era of passing offenses in the past 10 years, the average first round rookie wideout has averaged just 48 catches for 703 yards and 4 touchdowns. By those standards, Cooks had a pretty productive 10 games in his rookie season, especially since he was a young rookie who didn’t turn 21 until last September. Now healthy, Cooks has no one preventing him from being an every down starting receiver and figures to benefit greatly from the 201 vacated targets left behind by Graham and Stills, and, of course, he figures to benefit greatly from having Brees under center. Even if the Saints are more in the 550-600 range in pass attempts this season, Cooks could still push for 90-100 catches. He’ll be a better receiver in fantasy football (currently going in the 4^th round on average) than in real life probably, but he could be good in real life too.

A lot of people expected Marques Colston to be cut this off-season, ahead of a scheduled non-guaranteed 7 million dollar salary, but instead it was Stills and Graham going and Colston staying, after he agreed to a restructured contract. He’ll make just 3.8 million this season and another 3.2 million in 2016, if he’s still on the roster then. This season, he’ll start opposite Cooks, though largely for lack of a better option. Colston has been with the Saints since 2006 and has been such a big part of their offensive success over the years, but he’s aging (going into his age 32 season) and coming off arguably the worst season of his career.

He caught 59 passes for 902 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2014, the first season of his career in which he played more than 11 games and caught fewer than 60 passes and the first season of his career in which he played all 16 games and had fewer than 1000 yards. He was Pro Football Focus’ 100th ranked wide receiver out of 110 eligible last season, grading out below average for the first time in Pro Football Focus’ 8-year history, as Brees made him look a lot better than he was. He’s not completely over the hill yet and there’s definitely some bounce back potential with him, as he was Pro Football Focus’ 13^th ranked wide receiver as recently as 2013, but I don’t have high expectations for him and his best days are definitely behind him.

As I mentioned, the Saints don’t really have another starting option other than Colston. Their depth behind Cooks and Colston is really suspect. Nick Toon, Josh Morgan, Seantavius Jones, Brandon Coleman will all compete for the 3rd receiver job, pushing either Colston or Cooks to the slot in 3-wide sets, where both have experience. Toon is a 2012 4th round pick who missed his whole rookie season with injury and then graded out below average on 205 snaps in 2013 and 241 snaps in 2014. Seantavius Jones and Brandon Coleman are 2014 undrafted free agents who have never played a snap in their career.

Josh Morgan is the only experienced veteran of the bunch, going into his age 30 season and his 8^th year in the league, since getting drafted in the 6^th round in 2008. The career journeyman is already on his 4^th team and has only graded out above average once in his career. Last season, he graded out 84^th among 110 eligible wide receivers on 436 snaps with the Bears, including 106^th in pure pass catching grade, and he won’t get better as he goes into his 30s. The Saints would be better off going with a younger option who is less of a proven failure and who still has some upside. The Saints options for their 3^rd receiver are really poor. The move to send Kenny Stills, Pro Football Focus’ 23^rd ranked wide receiver in 2014, to the Dolphins for a 3^rd round pick (which they used on cornerback PJ Williams) and mediocre linebacker Dannell Ellerbe didn’t make any sense, especially since Stills was only going into his age 23 season and was signed very inexpensively for 2 more years on his rookie contract.

The Graham trade made a lot more sense. As good as Graham was last season (Pro Football Focus’ 11^th ranked tight end), the Saints gained valuable long-term financial flexibility by swapping the remainder of his contract (27 million over 3 years)to Seattle for the remainder of center Max Unger’s contract (9 million over 2 years). Unger isn’t as good as Graham, but he’s a very solid player in his own right and a much better value. On top of that, the Saints got Seattle’s first round pick (which eventually became linebacker Stephone Anthony) in exchange for their 4^th round pick, which is obviously good.

That’s not to say that the Saints won’t really miss Graham and they didn’t really do anything to replace him this off-season. The Saints are expected to give both Ben Watson and Josh Hill significant action at tight end this season and also have an outstanding contract offer to former Bengals tight end Jermaine Gresham, who has graded out below average in each of the last 3 seasons, including 61^st out of 62 eligible in 2012 and 64^th out of 64 eligible in 2013. He’s still available late into July because of his recent struggles and because he had off-season back surgery. He’d be a very underwhelming addition, even for a tight end needy team.

Watson is the veteran of the Watson/Hill duo. The 2004 1^st round pick has had a solid and underrated 11-year career, first with the Patriots, then the Browns, and now the Saints. Both a solid blocker and pass catcher, Watson has graded out above average 6 times in Pro Football Focus’ 8-year history, but graded out 48^th among 67 eligible tight ends last season and is now going into his age 35 season. Despite that, Watson is expected to play more than the 578 snaps he played last season, something he simply might not be able to handle at his advanced age anymore.

On the flip side, Hill is very unproven, going undrafted in 2013 and grading out slightly below average on 179 and 293 snaps in 2013 and 2014 respectively. For what it’s worth, the Saints really seem to like him, but it’s going to take a lot more than being liked by the organization for him to even come close to replacing Graham’s production. If given enough playing time, he could put up decent numbers simply because of who’s throwing the ball to him, but he’s unlikely to do much to help Brees, much like this receiving corps in generally. The Saints did absolutely nothing to replace Stills and Graham this off-season and have one of the worst receiving corps in the NFL as a result.

Grade: C-

Offensive Line

As I mentioned, Max Unger is a great player in his own right. He’ll be a huge upgrade at center for a team that wants to run the ball more often this season. Jonathan Goodwin was their starting center last season, but he graded out 27^th out of 41 eligible and was not brought back as a free agent ahead of his age 37 season. He hasn’t officially retired, but that will probably be what he ends up doing, as he’s drawn no free agent interest at his advanced age.

Unger, meanwhile, was Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked center last season, despite playing just 385 snaps. No one played fewer snaps and graded out better at the position. He missed 10 games with injury last season and the Seahawks desperately missed him when he was out of the lineup, moving the chains at a 6.38% better rate in games he started. That can’t all be credited to him and that’s over just one season’s sample size, but it’s worth noting because Unger was fantastic on the field last season.

Injuries have been an issue for him in the past as he’s missed 29 games in 6 seasons in the league with injury. Inconsistency is also a problem as, while he was dominant on the field last season and while he was Pro Football Focus’ 2nd ranked center in 2012 too, those are the only two seasons he’s been in the top-10 among centers on Pro Football Focus. Still, he’s graded out above average in 5 of 6 seasons in the NFL and getting him at 9 million over 2 years is a better value than Graham at 27 million over 3, which is very important for the Saints. Add in the swap of picks and I think the Saints made a smart move.

Tim Lelito was going to be their starting center in place of Goodwin before they acquired Unger, after making 2 starts in place of an injured Goodwin last season. Now he slides over to left guard, where he’ll replace Ben Grubbs. Grubbs was a top-16 guard on Pro Football Focus for 5 straight seasons from 2009-2013, but graded out slightly below average last season and was sent to Kansas City for a 5^th round pick, ahead of his age 31 season, a move that saved the Saints 6.6 million in cash, 3.6 million of which came off of their cap immediately. Lelito is a downgrade though, as the 2013 undrafted free agent has graded out below average on 162 and 294 snaps in 2013 and 2014 respectively, struggling at both guard and center. He showed some improvement from 2013 to 2014, but that could have just been because he was playing center instead of guard. I don’t have a lot of faith in him as the starting left guard and he should be a sharp downgrade from Grubbs.

The Saints did use one of their 1^st round picks on an offensive lineman, taking Andrus Peat out of Stanford with the 13^th overall pick. Either he or right tackle Zach Strief could play left guard this season, but the Saints haven’t really given either of them much if any action at guard this off-season. They seem to prefer starting Lelito at left guard and letting Peat and the veteran compete at right tackle. Strief is getting up there in age, going into his age 32 season, but, if it’s a fair battle, he should be able to keep job over the rookie pretty easily.

A late bloomer who didn’t become a full-time starter since 2011, Strief, a 2006 7^th round pick, has made 54 starts over the past 4 seasons and graded out above average in 3 of those 4 seasons, excluding an injury plagued 2012 season. He hasn’t just graded out above average; he’s excelled, grading out 12^th among offensive tackles in 2011, 9^th in 2013, and 17^th last season. His age is starting to become a concern, but he’s much more the solution than the problem upfront for the Saints and one of the best right tackles in the game.

I’d keep Strief at right tackle, move the rookie inside to left guard to start his career, and move Lelito to the bench. Even moving Strief inside and starting Peat at right tackle would make more sense than starting Lelito, even though Strief doesn’t have any experience inside and even though he’s been great outside. The Saints have shown no indication that they’re planning on doing that, but there’s still time for them to change their mind. Whatever they do, Strief needs to start because he’s been one of the best right tackles in the game over the past couple of years.

However, they should also avoid letting the 13^th overall pick ride the pine as a rookie because he’s good enough to help somewhere immediately and can’t start at his collegiate position of left tackle. That’s because the Saints have Terron Armstead there and the 2013 3^rd round pick had a breakout year in his 2^nd year in the league in 2014, finishing 27^th among offensive tackles, after playing 141 nondescript snaps as a rookie. He’s still a one year wonder, but he has the looks of a long-term starter and still has upside going forward, going into his age 24 season in 2015.

Rounding out the offensive line, Jahri Evans will once again start at right guard. Like ex-linemate Ben Grubbs, Jahri Evans has had a strong career, but was coming off of a down year, getting up there in age, and finding it hard to justify his big non-guaranteed salary for 2015 to the cap strapped Saints. From 2007-2013, he graded out in the top-30 among guards on Pro Football Focus in 7 straight years and the top-9 in 5 of those 7 years, maxing out at #1 overall in 2009. However, Evans slipped all the way to 46th out of 78 eligible in 2014 and is now going into his age 32 season.

Unlike Grubbs, the Saints kept him. He won’t make the 7.5 million he was originally scheduled to make, but he gets 9.5 million guaranteed on a 3-year, 18 million dollar deal, which gives him long-term security and essentially secures him 12 million over the 2 seasons. It’s a risky move and the Saints will definitely be hoping he can bounce back at least somewhat. His best days are behind him, but he could be a solid starter this season on a line that’s strong other than left guard Tim Lelito, who will hopefully be benched before the season starts.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

For a team with a lot of cap problems and a lack of long-term financial flexibility, the Saints weirdly spent a lot of money on running backs this off-season, signing CJ Spiller to a 4-year, 16 million dollar deal away from the Bills and re-signing Mark Ingram, also for 16 million over 4 years. Neither one of those deals were bad values, but I didn’t think the Saints needed both of them. I think the Ingram deal is the worse of the two.

Ingram rushed for 964 yards and 9 touchdowns on 226 carries (4.27 YPC) in 2014, but he’s a one year wonder who rushed for 1462 yards and 11 touchdowns on 356 carries (4.11 YPC) in his first 3 seasons combined, after the Saints drafted him in the 1st round in 2011. On top of that, his injury history is concern, with 14 games missed in 4 seasons, and he doesn’t contribute as a pass catcher, as he’s caught just 53 passes in 4 seasons. He’s a naturally talented running back who could continue being a solid early down back, but that’s not hard to find in today’s NFL.

The Saints could have replaced him cheaply internally with Khiry Robinson, a 2013 undrafted free agent who has flashed in 2 seasons in the league, rushing for 586 yards and 4 touchdowns on 130 carries, an average of 4.51 yards per carry. He graded out slightly below average on 76 snaps as a rookie, but then above average on 158 snaps in 2014. He’s unproven, doesn’t add anything as a pass catcher (8 career catches for 63 yards), and I don’t think he’s as talented as Ingram, but, at the very least, he’s a poor man’s version of Ingram at a much cheaper price. He would been a good fit as a complementary #2 back to Spiller, but now he’s a clear 3^rd running back instead and will have to wait for an injury for playing time. I think it’s a waste of his talent on a cap strapped team.

Unlike Ingram, the Saints didn’t have anyone like the speedy Spiller on their roster and I think he’s a good fit for their offense. Spiller, a 2010 1st round pick, had a fantastic 2012 campaign, rushing for 1244 yards and 6 touchdowns on 207 carries (6.01 YPC), adding 43 catches for 459 yards and 3 touchdowns through the air, and grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd ranked running back. He looked poised for a breakout year in 2013 as a 300+ touch back, but he struggled with injuries over the last 2 seasons (missing 8 games combined and being limited in several others) and he was never a great fit for Doug Marrone and Nathaniel Hackett’s offense.

Over the past 2 seasons, he’s rushed for 1233 yards and 2 touchdowns on 280 carries (4.40 YPC), with 52 catches for 310 yards and a touchdown, combined numbers that many people thought he’d be able to surpass in 2013 alone. He’s never surpassed 207 carries in a season, has annual issues in pass protection (grading out below average in 4 of 5 seasons), and is coming off the worst season of his career, 300 yards on 78 carries (3.85 YPC) in 9 games.

He’s a nice buy low candidate though, as he has a 4.97 YPC average and shows clear first round talent at times. He’s also a good pass catcher out of the backfield, grading out above average 4 times in 5 seasons in that aspect, and, if healthy, has the potential to put up at least Darren Sproles type receiving numbers (an average of 63 catches per season from 2011-2013) on a team that had a league leading 133 targets to running backs last season and now is very short on talented pass catchers for Brees. He’ll complement Ingram well, with Ingram specializing in power running between the tackles, but he would have complemented Robinson well too and Robinson would have come a lot cheaper. It’s a talented stable of backs, but one that could have done without giving Ingram 4 million annually.

Grade: B+

Defensive Line

As I mentioned, the Saints had a horrible defense last season, ranking 32^nd in rate of moving the chains allowed, after ranking 10^th the year before, during a 12-4 season. What happened? Well the player whose play declined the most was Cameron Jordan, who was Pro Football Focus’ 4^th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2013. With defensive coordinator Rob Ryan using far more 4-3 fronts than 3-4 fronts in base packages in 2014 in his hybrid defense, Jordan played 4-3 defensive end in base packages and 4-3 defensive tackle in sub packages and graded out below average.

Jordan, a 2011 1^st round pick, also graded out below average in 2011 and 2012 when he played that role. I don’t think you can blame the scheme changes entirely though as Jordan was still rushing the passer from the interior in both schemes. I think he’s just an inconsistent player and one that the Saints probably overpaid on a 5-year, 55 million dollar extension this off-season. He has bounce back potential in 2015, only going into his age 26 season, but he’s definitely hard to rely on.

One player who didn’t really mind the scheme change was Junior Galette, the other starting defensive end. Galette was Pro Football Focus’ 12^th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2013 and graded out 4^th among 4-3 defensive ends in 2014, showing himself to be easily the Saints’ best defensive player. The undersized 6-2 258 pounder graded out below average as a run stopper, but excelled as a pass rusher, grading out 2^nd at his position in that aspect. The 2010 undrafted free agent graded out below average in his first 2 seasons in the league on just 25 and 372 snaps respectively, but has put that far behind him over the past 3 seasons, grading out 16^th among 4-3 defensive ends in 2012 on 301 snaps as a reserve, with no one playing fewer snaps and grading out better at the position that season, and then dominating as a starter in each of the past 2 seasons.

The problem with Galette is twofold. The first problem is he suffered a partially torn pectoral earlier this off-season. He won’t need surgery though and is expected to be healthy by the start of the season. The bigger problem is the off-the-field stuff. Galette was accused of domestic violence at the start of the off-season and, while the charges were dropped, video surfaced later this off-season of someone who is allegedly him publicly striking a woman in a brawl at a beach back in 2013. The Saints are reportedly interested in cutting him, but that’s simply not feasible. Not only is he too talented to just outright release, doing so would cost the Saints 12 million on the 2015 cap (which they don’t have) because of the way his contract is structured.

Galette signed a 4-year, 41.5 million dollar extension last year and has yet to play a snap on that extension. Cutting him would essentially mean they are giving him 16 million dollars for free (a 3.5 million dollar signing bonus paid last off-season and a 12.5 million dollar roster bonus paid earlier this off-season) and they’d have no chance of getting any of that back without a legal conviction. Galette will remain a Saint in 2015, though he could be facing suspension from the league if they feel there’s enough evidence that a suspension is warranted, though nothing is reportedly imminent from the league. At this point, the Saints need to just hope that Galette can continue dominant play on-the-field and avoid any further trouble off-the-field. The likelihood of the former is strong. The likelihood of the latter is unclear.

The Saints edge rusher depth behind Galette is suspect as well, as 2^nd round rookie Hau‘oli Kikaha and Anthony Spencer (in either order) are their next best edge rushers. When Jordan moves inside in sub packages, one of those two players figures to play as the other edge rusher. My guess is the veteran Spencer wins that battle in Training Camp and the rookie is eased into the league as a rotational player. Of course, Spencer has missed 20 games with injuries over the past 3 seasons combined with injury so Kikaha could end up seeing significant action for that reason.

If healthy, Spencer could be a solid player. Spencer, at one point, was given the franchise tag in back to back seasons and was one of the best 3-4 outside linebackers in the game. From 2007-2012, Anthony Spencer, a first round pick in 2007, was a top-11 3-4 outside linebacker on Pro Football Focus in all 6 seasons, including 4 as an every down starter and maxing out at #1 overall in 2012. After playing so well on the franchise tag the first time in 2012, he was tagged again in 2013, but it didn’t go so well the 2^nd time around, as he played just 1 game the season thanks to a serious knee injury that required microfracture surgery.

Spencer was back for 13 games in 2014, but he played just 384 snaps, though he did grade out slightly above average. Going into his age 31 season, it’s very possible he’ll never be the same player again, but he’s be another year removed from the injury and could be decent in a situational role. He has experience in both a 3-4 (from 2007-2012 with the Cowboys) and a 4-3 (from 2013-2014 with the Cowboys and in his collegiate days at Purdue) and he’s familiar with Rob Ryan from Ryan’s days as the Dallas defensive coordinator from 2011-2012. He had the best year of his career in 2012 under Ryan.

Akiem Hicks led Saint defensive tackles in snaps played last season (with 734 snaps) and should do so again in 2015, after grading out above average, among 29^th defensive tackles, as an every down player in 2014. The 2012 3^rd round pick graded out above average on 383 snaps at 4-3 defensive tackle as a rookie in 2012 and then above average again on 653 snaps at 3-4 defensive end in 2013 too, so he’s not a one-year wonder either. He’s not a spectacular player, but he’s an above average starter who is only going into his age 26 season. He’ll be a free agent next off-season and should get a fair amount of money from someone, though likely not New Orleans with the cap situation they’re in. Even assuming a 150 million dollar cap for 2016, the Saints are already 7 million dollars over the 2016 cap.

It’s unclear who will start next to Akiem Hicks in base packages. John Jenkins is an option and certainly fits the mold of a two-down run stopper at 6-3 359, but the 2013 3^rd round pick has graded out below average on 436 and 398 snaps in 2013 and 2014 respectively. Brodrick Bunkley returns, after agreeing to slash his salary from 4.5 million to 1.65 million this off-season, but he’s not very good either. There’s a reason why he had to take a pay cut.

Bunkley has been a free agent bust since signing a 5-year, 25 million dollar deal three off-seasons ago, after grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked defensive tackle in 2011, including 1st against the run. Bunkley hasn’t been horrible when on the field in New Orleans, but he’s struggled to find a role in either the Saints’ 3-4 or the Saints’ 4-3 since arriving in town and he’s played just 899 snaps in 3 seasons as a result. He’s also graded out below average in 2 of the 3 seasons (each of the last 2 seasons) and missed 10 games over that time period. Even when he had his strong 2011 season, he only played 485 snaps and, even at his best, he’s a two-down player because of his inability to get to the quarterback. That’s all the Saints will need him to be this season, but his best days are far behind him, as he goes into his age 32 season.

Kevin Williams will also be in the mix for snaps after being signed to 1-year, 1.5 million dollar deal this off-season, but his best years are also far behind him, far, far behind him. He graded out above average in 7 straight seasons on Pro Football Focus, including in the top-9 from 2007-2012 and 27th in 2013, but graded out below average for the first time in his career last season on 445 snaps with the Seahawks and now heads into his age 35 season as a rotational player at best. The other defensive tackle spot is a weakness, but with every down players like Jordan, Galette, and Hicks, it’s really not a bad defensive line. The defensive line wasn’t the problem last season and things will be much better if Jordan bounces back. They’re depth is also much better as their worst defensive linemen last season were Brandon Deaderick and Kasim Edebali, who struggled mightily on 306 and 181 snaps respectively in 2014. They’ve been upgraded.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

The linebacking corps was a big part of the problem last season. Curtis Lofton was the worst offender as he made 16 starts at middle linebacker, but graded out 57^th among 60 eligible middle linebackers, leading to his release the off-season, ahead of a non-guaranteed 8.25 million dollar salary for 2015. Ramon Huber was also really bad as the reserve outside linebacker graded out as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked 4-3 outside linebacker on just 449 snaps. The Saints added talent this off-season and have a deeper linebacking corps as a result.

Stephone Anthony, the 31^st overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft (the Jimmy Graham trade pick), will start immediately at middle linebacker, in place of Lofton, and should be an every down player from the word go. Dannell Ellerbe came over in the trade from Miami for Stills and will play the two-down outside linebacker role in base packages, though he could be a liability more than anything. Ellerbe signed a 5-year, 34.25 million dollar deal with the Dolphins two off-seasons ago and proceeded to grade out as Pro Football Focus’ 50^th ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible in 2013. He moved to outside linebacker for 2014, but ended up missing all but 18 snaps with a hip injury, which probably actually helped the Dolphins.

That deal didn’t make any sense for the start. Ellerbe, a 2009 undrafted free agent, maxed out at 456 snaps in a season from 2009-2011, but he had a solid 2012 season, grading out 14th among middle linebackers on Pro Football Focus on 667 regular season snaps and then followed that up with a strong post-season, en route to a Super Bowl victory by the Ravens. That’s what got him paid, but he was a one year wonder that wasn’t worth his contract even at his best. He’s only graded out above average once in 6 seasons in the league and is now going into his age 30 season and coming off of a serious injury.

Ellerbe will only make 4.8 million this season, rather than his originally scheduled 8.45 million dollar salary, but he’s still overpaid. He’d probably be best as a reserve linebacker with Parys Haralson remaining as the two-down outside linebacker. Haralson struggled mightily on passing downs last season, but graded out 5^th among 4-3 outside linebackers against the run and graded out above average overall as a result. That’s nothing new for him, as he’s graded out above average overall and against the run in each of the last 3 seasons. Even going into his age 31 season, he’d be a better two-down starter than Ellerbe, but Ellerbe’s salary makes it highly unlikely that he’ll just be a backup.

Outside linebacker David Hawthorne is another player who took a pay cut to stay on the roster, agreeing to a 1.25 million dollar pay cut from 4.5 million to 3.25 million. Like the other players that had to take a pay cut to stay on the roster, there’s a reason he had to do so, as, like many other recent free agent signings by the Saints, he didn’t pan out for the Saints. The Saints gave him a 5-year, 19 million dollar deal 3 off-seasons ago, after he graded out above average in 2009, 2010, and 2011 with Seattle (including 11^th among middle linebackers in 2009 and 2^nd among outside linebackers in 2010), but he’s graded out below average in each of the last 3 seasons, leading to the pay cut.

Hawthorne wasn’t the biggest problem in the linebacking corps last season, but he graded out 28^th out of 40 eligible 4-3 outside linebacker and he’s unlikely to be any better going into his age 30 season this season. The Saints’ linebacking corps is better and deeper than it was last season and guys like Curtis Lofton and Ramon Hurber who were such a big part of the problem last season aren’t going to be playing serious roles again this season, but it’s still not a strong group.

Grade: C

Secondary

The secondary was also a big part of the problem last season, thanks, in large part, to serious down seasons from Kenny Vaccaro and Keenan Lewis. Vaccaro, a 2013 1^st round pick, had a great rookie year, finishing as Pro Football Focus’ 23^rd ranked safety, but struggled mightily in his 2^nd season in the league, grading out 85^th out of 87 eligible safeties. That greatly dampens future expectations for him, but he’s still young (only going into his age 24 season) and is definitely a bounce back candidate.

Keenan Lewis is also a bounce back candidate, after grading out 98^th among 108 eligible cornerbacks in 2014. The 2009 3^rd round pick graded out below average in each of his first 3 seasons in the league, but he never played more than 393 snaps in any of those seasons and then broke out as a starter in 2012 and 2013, grading out 38^th and 27^th among cornerbacks in those 2 seasons respectively. Still only going into his age 29 season, I think it’s much more likely that he’ll be better in 2015 than worse.

In addition to likely bounce back years from Lewis and Vaccaro (at least somewhat), the Saints’ secondary should be better because Jairus Byrd will return after being limited to 272 snaps in 4 games by a torn meniscus last season. Even when healthy, he struggled last season thanks to a lingering back problem, following off-season back surgery. Prior to last season, he was arguably the best safety in the NFL, which is why the Saints signed him to a 6-year, 54 million dollar deal last off-season.

The 2009 2^nd round pick graded out above average in each of his first 5 seasons in the league up until free agency last off-season, grading out 41^st, 22^nd, 3^rd, 2^nd, and 8^th in 2009-2013 respectively. No other safety graded out in the top-8 in all three seasons from 2011-2013. Injuries are beginning to become a concern, going into his age 29 season, as he missed 5 games with a foot problem in 2013 before last year’s back problems and knee problems, but, assuming he’s healthy, his re-addition should be a big boost to this team.

Rafael Bush, who was decent in Byrd’s absence last season on 479 snaps before suffering a season ending injury of his own week 11, will go back to being the 3^rd safety this season. The 2010 undrafted free agent has graded out above average as a reserve in each of the last 3 seasons, maxing out at 520 snaps, and could find his way back into the starting lineup if Vaccaro continues to struggle or Byrd gets hurt again. They’d prefer him as a 3^rd safety though.

The Saints do still have a serious weakness at cornerback behind Lewis. Corey White, who graded out 106^th among 108 eligible cornerbacks as the #2 starter last season, is gone, but free agent acquisition Brandon Browner isn’t very good either. Browner graded out above average in each of his first 3 seasons in the NFL from 2011-2013, after starting his career in the CFL, but I think his best days are behind him, going into his age 31 season. The Patriots won the Super Bowl in spite of him last season as he graded out below average, 79^th out of 108 eligible cornerbacks.

That’s largely thanks to the 15 penalties he committed in 9 games, 19 penalties in 12 games if you include the playoffs, after he missed the start of the season with a suspension leftover from the 2013 season, when he didn’t play past week 10. The only thing Browner seems to like more than getting in trouble with the league for performance enhancing drugs is getting in trouble with the refs for various holding and pass interference calls that extend opponent’s drives. His penalty problem isn’t a new thing either as he’s committed 48 penalties in 50 career games, including playoffs, a problem that won’t get better as he goes into his 30s, in a league that is getting increasingly tough on coverage penalties. He was overpaid on a 3-year, 15 million dollar deal this off-season.

Not only is Corey White, who was terrible last season, gone, but Patrick Robinson, who was their best cornerback last season, is also gone, after actually grading out slightly above average in 2014. It’s unclear who is going to replace him as the 3^rd cornerback. 3^rd round rookie PJ Williams is in the mix, as is 2014 2^nd round pick Stanley Jean-Baptiste, who played just 8 snaps as a rookie. Delvin Breaux is another inexperienced player, who has spent the last 3 seasons in the Arena League and Canada. He was a premium signing out of the CFL this off-season, getting a 150K guarantee, but he’ll be hard to trust as the 3^rd cornerback, as is also the case with Williams and Jean-Baptiste. Breaux has never played a snap in the NFL.

The only veteran in the mix is Kyle Wilson. Wilson was a bust as a 2010 1st round pick. He’s graded out below average in each of the last 4 seasons and made just 27 starts in 5 years with the Jets, including just 1 over the last 2 seasons combined as he could barely get on the field, despite massive issues at the cornerback position for the Jets. 2012 was his only season as a starter, as he played 966 snaps and made 15 starts, and he graded out just 72nd out of 115 eligible that season. He’s not very good. It’s still a weak secondary, but, like the linebacking corps, they should be better this season.

Grade: C

Conclusion

As I said earlier, the Saints were good enough to make the playoffs last season, but won’t necessarily make them this season, as their roster doesn’t seem to be as good. Their defense should be better thanks to additions in free agency and the draft, key players returning from injury, and bounce back years likely from other key players. They should be somewhere between the 10th best defense they were in 2013 and the worst defense they were in 2014, but they still could be closer to 2014. On offense, they have an aging quarterback with a worse supporting cast. If they make the playoffs next season, it’ll be because of their terrible division. As with all teams, I’ll have official win/loss records for the Saints after I’ve done all team’s previews.

Final Update (9/9/15): So much for being better defensively. Junior Galette ended up getting cut and Anthony Spencer, who they were counting on to replace him, is out for the season with an injury. On top of that, Keenan Lewis and Jairus Byrd, who they were counting on to bounce back in the secondary, will miss games to start the season with injury. Fortunately, they still play in an awful division and I think they’ll win it, but they aren’t going to consistently play like the team they could have been last season.

Prediction: 9-7 1st in NFC South

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Jacksonville Jaguars 2015 NFL Season Preview

July 19, 2015 stevenlourie 2015 NFL Season Previews, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Quarterback

In the 2011 NFL Draft, the Jaguars made a franchise defining mistake. In a draft that saw JJ Watt, Robert Quinn, Ryan Kerrigan, Randall Cobb, DeMarco Murray, Justin Houston, Richard Sherman, Jason Kelce, Chris Harris, among countless other talented players go outside of the top-10, the Jaguars traded their 1^st and 2^nd round pick to the Redskins (which became Kerrigan and Jarvis Jenkins) to move up to take quarterback Blaine Gabbert with the 10^th overall pick. Gabbert lasted 3 seasons in Jacksonville, winning just 5 of 27 starts, completing 53.3% of his passes for an average of 5.61 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 24 interceptions, before getting shipped to the 49ers for a 6^th round pick last off-season. Considering what they gave up for him and who else was in that draft class, Gabbert has to go down as one of the biggest draft busts of the 21^st century.

The Jaguars started over at the quarterback position in the 2014 NFL Draft, taking Blake Bortles 3^rd overall, but, after one year in the league, it looks like the Jaguars might have drafted Blaine Gabbert all over again. Bortles was a disaster as a rookie, completing 58.9% of his passes for an average of 6.12 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions, while grading out as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked quarterback out of 39 eligible. The one positive is he rushed for 419 yards on 56 carries. The Jaguars went just 3-11 in the 14 games he played and the Jaguars moved the chains at a mere 65.84% rate in those 14 games, as opposed to 64.55% on the season, 31^st in the NFL.

Bortles’ poor rookie season isn’t necessarily a death sentence for his career, as there are plenty of players at all positions who have found adjusting to the NFL tough, before figuring it out. Bortles admitted after the season that he was out of shape as a rookie and suffered from dead arm as a result. He’s reportedly worked on his conditioning a lot this off-season, dropping from 250 to 238, which is around his combine weight (232). The Jaguars essentially admitted before the season started that they felt Bortles needed a redshirt rookie year, before he was forced into action by Chad Henne’s completely ineffective play in the first 2 and a half games of the season.

Bortles has worked with QB guru Tom House this off-season and the Jaguars upgraded the offensive coordinator position this off-season, firing the ineffective Jedd Fisch, now the University of Michigan’s quarterbacks coach, and replacing him with Greg Olsen, who has more of a track record of success. Bortles is only going into his age 23 season, but until I see it from him on the field, I’m going to be very skeptical of his long-term potential. If Bortles continues to struggle, this offense doesn’t have much of a chance of being effective.

Grade: C-

Offensive Line

Of course, Bortles didn’t have a lot of help on offense. A lot of people point to the league leading 54 sacks Bortles took (in just 13 ½ games) as an excuse for his poor rookie year. That has some truth behind that, but a lot of those sacks were Bortles’ fault. The Jaguars finished 17^th in team pass blocking grade on Pro Football Focus, not good, but certainly not horrible. Bortles was pressured on just 34.0% of dropbacks, 21^st among 39 eligible quarterbacks. However, he also took a sack on 28.9% of pressured dropbacks, the highest rate in the NFL among eligible quarterbacks. He also completed just 36.4% of passes while pressured, also worst among eligible quarterbacks. His pocket presence was an issue coming out of the University of Central Florida and something that needs to drastically improve in his 2^nd year in the league if he’s going to put up even decent numbers in 2015.

Of course, that doesn’t mean that the Jaguars didn’t need to find upgrades upfront this off-season and they found a couple, devoting part of their large amount of cap space to the offensive line. The Jaguars took an interesting approach in free agency for the most part. They knew they’d have to overpay people to join their terrible team, but a lot of the players they decided to overpay were players who have been in the league a while, who had flashed in limited action, but never got a chance to be a starters. The Jaguars think they’re finding diamonds in the rough, but the league generally is smart enough to not let guys slip through the cracks that many times.

On the offensive line, that “diamond in the rough” is Jermey Parnell, who they signed to a 5-year, 32 million dollar deal. That’s way too much money to commit to a player like Parnell who has made 7 starts in 6 years in the league since going undrafted in 2009. Five of those starts came in 2014 and he was Pro Football Focus’ 20th ranked offensive tackle despite playing just 388 snaps last year, with no one grading out better than him on fewer snaps. However, prior to 2014, Pernell had only played 294 snaps in his career combined and had never graded out above average. He should be an upgrade over the trio of Austin Pasztor, Sam Young, and Cameron Bradfield, who all struggled mightily at right tackle last season, but it’s really hard to trust him, given that he’s a one-year wonder in terms of even flashing and given that he’s going into his first season as a starter in his age 29 season.

The Jaguars’ other free agent acquisition on the offensive line came a lot cheaper, as they signed Stefen Wisniewski to a 1-year, 2.5 million dollar deal. He’ll start at center this season. Stefen Wisniewski, a 2011 2nd round pick, has made 61 starts over the past 4 years for the Raiders. After struggling out of position at guard as a rookie, Wisniewski graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 17th, 11th, and 22nd ranked center in 2012, 2013, and 2014 respectively, which means that he’s been an average starter. Only going into his age 26 season, the only reason Wisniewski was still available after the draft and available for so cheap was because he had off-season shoulder surgery. Expected to be healthy for Training Camp, 6 months after surgery, he should continue being an average starter and at a cheap price. He’s an upgrade over Luke Bowanko, who graded out 29^th among 41 eligible centers last season.

The Jaguars gave a big contract to a free agent offensive lineman last off-season as well, signing Zane Beadles to a 5-year, 30 million dollar deal, away from the Broncos. Beadles made all 16 starts in his first season in Jacksonville and graded out slightly above average. That was only the 2^nd time in his 5 year career (77 starts) that he graded out above average and, overall, I think he’s overpaid. However, the Jaguars aren’t exactly strapped for cash and he’s more the solution than the problem in Jacksonville, so I think any recent talk of the Jaguars cutting or trading him to start 3^rd round rookie AJ Cann is unwarranted.

Cann was originally drafted to start at center, but when the Jaguars were able to bring in Wisniewski, he got sent to the bench. The versatile interior lineman will probably have to wait until 2016 at the earliest to get a chance to start, barring injuries. Cann can’t start at right guard because 2014 3^rd round pick Brandon Linder proved to be a steal during a very strong rookie season, grading out 10^th among guards. He’s still a one-year wonder, but he’s one of the few young building blocks the Jaguars have on either side of the ball.

Rounding out of the offensive line is another recent draft pick, 2013 2^nd overall pick Luke Joeckel. Joeckel has largely been a bust thus far in his career. After grading out well below average on 277 snaps in an injury shortened rookie season in 2013, Joeckel made all 16 starts on the blindside in 2014, but struggled mightily, grading out 67^th among 84 eligible offensive tackles. He’ll start on the blindside again this season and, while it’s probably too early to write him off as a bust, he’s definitely entering a make or break 3^rd season in the league and, right now, break seems more likely. With the Jaguars upgrading the center and right tackle spots this off-season and adding a versatile reserve in Cann this off-season, the left tackle spot is now the biggest weakness on an offensive line that’s a lot better than a lot of people think. Bortles could easily make them look a lot worse than they are again this season though.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

Cann wasn’t the only high pick the Jaguars used on offense, as they used a 2nd round pick on running back TJ Yeldon. The Jaguars gave Toby Gerhart a 3-year 10.5 million dollar deal last off-season, coming over from Minnesota, hoping that the 2010 2^nd round pick could emerge as a starter, out of Adrian Peterson’s shadow. Instead, he flopped, rushing for 326 yards and 2 touchdowns on 101 carries (3.23 YPC). Part of that had to do with the offensive line’s ineffectiveness (24th in team run blocking grade), as well a variety of nagging injuries that he dealt with, but he was surpassed on the depth chart by the smaller Denard Robinson by mid-season and Robinson drastically outperformed him.

Robinson flashed in his first season of significant action, making 9 starts and rushing for 582 yards and 4 touchdowns on 135 carries (4.31 YPC), adding 23 catches for 124 yards through the air. However, he’s still unproven, with just 155 career carries, and the collegiate quarterback is undersized at 6-0 197 and doesn’t appear to be built to handle a starting running back’s workload in the NFL. He also proved to be pretty useless as both a receiver and a blocker on passing downs. There’s a reason he fell to the 5th round in 2013 and he didn’t do anything to quell durability concerns by ending the season on injured reserve with a significant foot injury. The 6-1 226 pound Yeldon will take over lead back duties from Robinson, leaving Robinson to be a change of pace back. The Jaguars have talked up Yeldon’s upside and see him as a feature back long-term, but they’ll probably ease him in as a rookie, which means Robinson will still get at least 5-7 touches per game.

Gerhart was kept at a non-guaranteed 3 million dollar salary for 2015, but if the Jaguars were even remotely strapped for cap space, they would have let him go easily. Instead, he remains as a clear 3^rd running back and occasional fullback at 6-0 231. Gerhart’s career numbers don’t look bad, as he’s rushed for 1631 yards and 7 touchdowns on 377 attempts, an average of 4.33 yards per carry, but that’s largely because he mostly was running in obvious passing situations in Minnesota as a 3^rd down back and because he was running behind a strong offensive line. Going into his age 28 season with a career high of 109 carries in a season (2011), Gerhart simply isn’t cut out to be a lead back. The backfield is improved simply because he won’t have a significant role.

Grade: C+

Receiving Corps

The Jaguars were not good in the receiving corps either last season. Not only did no one catch more than 53 passes (Cecil Shorts, who is gone), total more than 677 yards (Allen Hurns), or total more than 6 touchdowns (Hurns again), but they didn’t have a single wide receiver or tight end play a snap and grade out above average. In fact, just two players on the Jaguars whole offense played more than 250 snaps and graded out above average, their two guards Zane Beadles and Brandon Linder.

The biggest thing they did to fix this was to sign Julius Thomas away from Denver on a 5-year, 46 million dollar contract. Unlike a lot of the free agents that they gave a lot of money to this off-season, Julius Thomas at least has some starting experience, but that doesn’t mean he wasn’t overpaid. Thomas played 50 snaps in his first 2 seasons in the league, catching 1 pass, after the incredibly athletic former basketball player was drafted in the 4th round in 2011. He broke out in 2013, catching 65 passes for 788 yards and 12 touchdowns, but he was limited by injuries in 2014, catching 43 passes for 489 yards and 12 touchdowns in 13 games. Thomas is a poor run blocker, has never played all 16 games in a season, has never graded out higher than 13^th among tight ends, and a lot of his passing game production was the result of getting to play with Peyton Manning.

Thomas won’t be nearly as productive or efficient with Blake Bortles as he was with Peyton Manning, but he could easily still lead this team in catches, receptions, and touchdowns, even if only by default. He’s definitely better than any tight end they had last season and should be their best offensive weapon in 2015 in his first season in Jacksonville. Clay Harbor and Marcedes Lewis led the team in snaps played among tight ends last season with 489 snaps and 443 snaps respectively, grading out 39^th and 48^th among 67 eligible tight ends respectively.

Lewis returns this season as the #2 tight end behind Thomas, after agreeing to slash his salary from 6.8 million to 2.65 million. Lewis, a 2006 1st round pick, has been one of the most underrated and underappreciated players of the last decade or so. Lewis hasn’t put up big numbers in the passing game, catching 315 passes for 3789 yards and 27 touchdowns in 128 career games, maxing out with a 58/700/10 line in 2010. However, that’s largely because he’s been stuck with terrible quarterbacks and has been asked to stay in to pass protect more than any tight end in the league over that time period, something he excels at. He doesn’t excel as a pass catcher, but he’s been decent and he’s been a dominant blocker both in the run game and the pass game.

However, he’s now coming off of the worst season of his career, grading out below average for the first time since 2008 and missing 8 games with injury. He’s missed a combined 13 games over the past 2 seasons and hasn’t been the same player on the field. He’s going into his age 31 season so his best days (like in 2012 when he graded out 5^th among tight ends, or in 2011 when he graded out 10^th among tight ends) are behind him, but if he can stay healthy, he could be a solid #2 tight end and inline blocking complement for Thomas, who is much more of a pass catching tight end who can be moved around the formation and even split out wide.

Along with the addition of Julius Thomas through free agency, the Jaguars are hoping that a trio of 2^nd year wide receivers can take a leap forward in 2015. Aside from Cecil Shorts, who signed in Houston this off-season, the Jaguars’ top wide receivers last season were all rookies. Allen Robinson and Marqise Lee were a pair of 2^nd round rookies who played 524 and 501 snaps respectively in 2014, while undrafted rookie Allen Hurns actually led Jaguar wide receivers in snaps played with 805 last season. The Jaguars tried to find a veteran wide receiver this off-season to add to the mix, falling short on Randall Cobb before he opted to stay in Green Bay, and poking around cheaper veteran Greg Jennings before he ultimately signed in Miami. The Jaguars didn’t end up adding a veteran receiver, opting instead to just use a 5^th round pick on Rashad Greene so Hurns, Robinson, and Lee (in some order), will be their top-3 wide receivers this season.

Robinson is the one that the organization seems the most excited about. My guess is he leads all Jaguar wide receivers in snaps played, catches, and yards in 2015. He graded out the best of the trio as a rookie, only grading out slightly below average, catching 48 passes on 76 targets (63.2%) for 548 yards and 2 touchdowns on 334 routes run, an average of 1.64 yards per route run. The only problem is he missed 6 games with injury, but he’s now healthy and only going into his age 22 season in his 2^nd year in the league in 2015 and could be solid for them as their #1 wide receiver.

Lee and Hurns will compete for the #2 and #3 receiver roles, with Greene working as the 4^th receiver at best as a rookie. Lee caught 37 passes on 61 attempts (60.7%) for 422 yards and 1 touchdown on 330 routes run, an average of 1.28 yards per route run, in 13 games. Hurns, meanwhile, caught 51 passes on 91 attempts (56.0%) for 677 yards and 6 touchdowns on 515 routes run, an average of 1.31 yards per route run, in 16 games. Lee has the greater upside because he was drafted in the 2^nd round, while Hurns didn’t get drafted at all. He also played a little bit better last season, grading out 94^th among 110 eligible wide receivers, as opposed to 104^th for Hurns. Neither one of them projects to be very good in 2015, but Lee should be the other starter, even though Hurns played more snaps last season.

The complete wild card in the receiving corps is Justin Blackmon, who remains suspended indefinitely. It’s easy to forget that he is even on the roster as he hasn’t been on the field since week 8 of 2013. Blackmon has missed 28 games combined over the past 2 seasons with drug abuse related suspensions. The 5th overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, Blackmon had a solid rookie season, catching 64 passes for 865 yards and 5 touchdowns and then excelled in 4 games as a sophomore in 2013 before getting suspended. His 2.58 yards per route run was 4th best in the NFL among eligible receivers in 2013 as he caught 29 passes for 415 yards and 1 touchdown on 161 routes run in those 4 games. However, the Jaguars are operating as if he won’t be able to play in 2015. He’s rumored to have failed another drug test. He’d upgrade the receiving corps if available, but, until that happens, it’s still a below average group.

Grade: C

Defensive Line

The Jaguars’ biggest need going into the draft was at defensive end, as the Jaguars needed an upgrade on Chris Clemons, who was Pro Football Focus’ 58^th ranked 4-3 defensive end out of 59 eligible last season and who is going into his age 34 season this season. His struggles last season were a big part of the reason why the Jaguars ranked 22^nd in rate of moving the chains allowed. The Jaguars filled that need with the 3^rd overall pick, drafting Dante Fowler out of Florida, but then disaster struck, as Fowler tore his ACL in one of his first NFL practices and will miss the entirety of the 2015 season.

That leaves Clemons to start once again, instead of likely being cut to save 4.5 million, all of which would have come off the cap immediately. Chris Clemons had a strong stretch in Seattle from 2010-2012, grading out as a top-12 4-3 defensive end in all 3 seasons on Pro Football Focus, excelling at getting to the quarterback. However, he tore his ACL in the post-season in 2012 and hasn’t been the same since. He was Pro Football Focus’ 43rd ranked 4-3 defensive end out of 52 eligible in 2013 and he was even worse in 2014. Things won’t be better as he enters his age 34 season.

Free agent acquisition Jared Odrick will be the other starter, after being signed from Miami on a 5-year, 42.5 million dollar deal. It’s an overpay, but, unlike several of their other free agent acquisitions, he is proven as a starter, grading out 16^th and 19^th among defensive tackles in 2013 and 2014. In Jacksonville, he’ll replace Red Bryant at defensive end in base packages. Bryant, a 6-5 328 pound run stopping specialist, graded out 3^rd among 4-3 defensive ends against the run last season, but 57^th out of 59 eligible 4-3 defensive ends as a pass rusher, leading to his release ahead of a non-guaranteed 4.25 million dollar salary this off-season.

Odrick is a much more complete player and will play inside in sub packages at his natural position of defensive tackle, so he’ll play more in the Michael Bennett role than the Red Bryant role if we’re comparing this defensive front to the defensive front in Seattle, where Jacksonville head coach Gus Bradley used to be the defensive coordinator. My one concern is Odrick struggled mightily early in his career as both a 3-4 and a 4-3 defensive end, including 59th out of 62 eligible 4-3 defensive ends in 2012. It’s possible those days are past him, but I like him more as a pure interior player.

Sticking with the Seattle parallel, free agent acquisition Dan Skuta will play the Bruce Irvin role, playing outside linebacker in base packages and rushing the passer off the edge in at least some sub packages. Skuta was one of the free agents that Jacksonville signed that barely has any starting experience and the 5-year, 20.5 million dollar deal the Jaguars gave him came as a shock to pretty much everyone. I like Skuta as a player. The amount of different positions Skuta has played in the NFL is incredible. He’s played 4-3 defensive end, fullback, 4-3 outside linebacker, 4-3 middle linebacker, 3-4 outside linebacker, and 3-4 middle linebacker, while excelling on special teams. However, I never expected he’d get this kind of deal.

Skuta has graded out above average in 3 of the last 4 seasons, including 2 straight and a 2013 season in which he was Pro Football Focus’ 16th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker on just 304 snaps in San Francisco, with no one playing fewer snaps and grading out better at the position. However, he’s never played more than 398 snaps in a season (setting that career high in 2014) and he’s already going into his age 29 season. He’s a projection to an every-down role. He’s not that young. And the list of guys who break out as starters for the first time in their 7th season in the league isn’t very long. As I said, the league is generally smart enough for guys not to fall through the cracks that many times. It’s a deal that has a lot of possible downside and very little possible upside, as I don’t really see him exceeding his salary.

Along with Odrick, Ryan Davis figures to see a bunch of snaps inside in sub packages. The 2012 undrafted free agent had a shocking breakout year last year, excelling as a tweener defensive end/defensive tackle at 6-2 261. He should see more than the 310 snaps he had last season because he’s arguably one of their best defensive players. He can play both defensive end and defensive tackle, but he did his best work at defensive tackle last season, grading out 11^th among defensive tackles on just 212 snaps last season, with no one playing fewer snaps and grading out better at the position. He’ll be most valuable to the Jaguars as an interior pass rusher in sub packages this season, but isn’t bad against the run either and will also likely see some snaps outside at defensive end with Fowler hurt. The only concerns with him are that he’s unproven as a 500+ snap player and that he’s a one-year wonder, only playing 126 snaps in 2012 and 2013 combined to start his career.

Sen’Derrick Marks led Jaguar defensive tackles in snaps played last season with 739, but figures to play significantly fewer this season. That’s not just because of the addition of Odrick or Davis’ emergence, but also because Marks tore his ACL week 16 of last season and will be in a race to play week 1. Even if he does and plays all 16 games this season, he could easily not be as good as he was last season, when he graded out 16^th among defensive tackles. That’s not just because of the torn ACL, but last season was also the first time in his 6 year career that he graded out above average. His history prior to 2014 is not great, including a 2010 season when he graded out 64^th out of 76 eligible, a 2011 season when he graded out 78^th out of 88 eligible, and a 2012 season when he graded out 75^th out of 85 eligible.

Roy Miller and Ziggy Hood return to play situational roles against the run once again, after playing 492 and 422 snaps respectively in 2014. Neither one is very good and neither one has ever graded out above average in their career, dating back to when both came into the league in 2009, in the 3^rd and 1^st round respectively. Neither was awful last season, but both have been much worse in the past. Miller graded out 64^th among 69 eligible defensive tackles in 2013 and 82^nd out of 88 eligible in 2011, while Hood graded out 43^rd among 45 eligible 3-4 defensive ends in 2013 and 33^rd among 34 eligible in 2012. Still, it’s a solid defensive line and probably the best unit on this team.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

I already mentioned Skuta will be playing outside linebacker in base packages, replacing Geno Hayes, who actually graded out 12^th among 4-3 outside linebackers on 587 snaps last season as a run stopping specialist. Telvin Smith and Paul Posluszny will be the every down linebackers, outside and inside respectively. Smith was a steal as a 5^th round pick in 2014, making 10 starts in 16 games, playing 723 snaps and grading out slightly above average as a rookie, despite the lack of size (6-3 218) that dropped him in the draft in the first place. He’s still a one-year wonder and I don’t think he’s at the point where the fact that the whole league let him drop to the 5th round is irrelevant, but he could still be a long-term starter.

Posluszny, meanwhile, signed a 6-year, 45 million dollar deal five off-seasons ago and he had a good start to his tenure in Jacksonvillle, grading out above average in both 2010 and 2011, including 7th in 2011. However, he’s graded out below average in each of the last 3 seasons. Now he’s going into his age 31 season and he missed 9 games with a torn pectoral last season, so his best years are behind him. Originally owed a non-guaranteed 7.5 million dollars this season, Posluszny restructured his deal this off-season and will now make just 5.5 million this season, followed by 4.5 million in 2016 and 5 million in 2017, if he’s still on the roster. He should be an upgrade over JT Thomas, who was Pro Football Focus’ 55^th ranked middle linebacker out of 60 eligible last season, but that’s not saying much and he’s at the point in his career where the most valuable thing he offers to a team is leadership. It’s an overall below average linebacking corps, outside of maybe Skuta, who is only a part-time linebacker.

Grade: C+

Secondary

Along with Parnell and Skuta, the Jaguars also gave a 4-year, 24.5 million dollar deal Davon House, who has been in the league for 4 years and has maxed out at 472 snaps. That deal is the best of the trio I think. Not only is House younger (only going into his age 26 season), but he’s only been on one team in his career, so it’s not like he’s bounced around the league unable to find starting work like the other 2 players. House, a 2011 4th round pick, just happens to have gotten stuck on a Green Bay team with solid cornerback depth to start his career. House has always graded out around average in his career and could definitely break out as a solid starter in Jacksonville in 2015 and beyond. It was an overpay, but it wasn’t egregious.

House will essentially replace Alan Ball, a starting cornerback who played 508 snaps in 7 games last season before going down for the season with an injury. He signed in Chicago this off-season. Dwayne Gratz (871 snaps) and Demetrius McCray (834 snaps) remain and will compete for the #2 and #3 cornerback jobs. Aaron Colvin will be in the mix for snaps as well. The 2014 4^th round pick played just 281 snaps as a rookie, but that was because he didn’t play until week 12, while he was recovering from a torn ACL that dropped him in the draft in the first place. Colvin was seen as a 2^nd round or even a 1^st round pick before suffering the injury pre-draft and he showed that talent as a rookie, grading out slightly above average. Now healthy, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Colvin broke out as a solid contributor in 2015, but he’s still unproven.

The Jaguars would definitely like Colvin to grab a role and play well because both Gratz and McCray struggled last season, especially Gratz, who graded out 83^rd among 108 eligible cornerbacks, including 100^th in pure coverage grade. Gratz, a 2013 3^rd round pick, played better as a rookie, grading out above average on 494 snaps as a rookie, but McCray didn’t. The 2013 7^th round pick graded out below average on 93 snaps as a rookie. Neither one figures to be very good this season, so the Jaguars will be relying on breakout years from House and Colvin, both of whom are still unproven.

At safety, 2013 2^nd round pick John Cyprien is locked in as a starter for the 3^rd straight season, after making 30 of 32 possible starts in his first 2 years in the league. After struggling mightily as a rookie, grading out 84^th out of 86 eligible safeties, Cyprien was significantly better in his 2^nd season in the league in 2014, but still graded out below average. Only going into his age 25 season, he still has upside, but my guess is he’s an average starter at best in 2015.

At the other safety spot, the Jaguars brought in veteran Sergio Brown and 4^th round rookie James Sample to compete for the starting job, after Josh Evans graded out 84^th among 87 eligible safeties as in 2014. Brown seems to have won that competition by default, as Sample broke his arm in early June. Sample is expected back for week 1, but he’ll simply have missed too much valuable off-season practice as a rookie to unseat the veteran. Brown was likely the favorite even prior to the injury.

Brown was an undrafted free agent out of Notre Dame in 2010 and flashed on 94 snaps as a rookie with the Patriots. As a result, he was given a starting job in 2011, but quickly lost it for poor performance and went on to play just 61 snaps over the next 2 seasons, both with Indianapolis. However, Brown got another chance at a starting job in 2014 and made the most of it, making 8 starts and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 24th ranked safety. He could be a solid starter again in 2015, but Jaguars fans need to remember his history prior to 2014 isn’t great. It’s a mediocre secondary that will be banking on a career journeyman continuing strong play and a pair of unproven youngsters breaking out.

Grade: C

Conclusion

The Jaguars were one of the worst teams in the NFL last season, finishing 29th in rate of moving the chains differential at -8.37%, thanks to a mediocre defense and a horrible offense. They were a long ways away from the 28th place team, the Jets, who finished at -4.43%. They were squarely in a bottom tier with Oakland, Tennessee, and Tampa Bay. Tennessee and Tampa Bay both added significant quarterback upgrades this off-season, among other upgrades, and, while Jacksonville spent a lot of money this off-season, they overpaid a lot of guys and still don’t have a lot of talent. They’re arguably the least talented team in the NFL when you look at everyone’s roster and should be one of the worst teams in the NFL again with Oakland. They’ll need significantly improved play from 2nd year quarterback Blake Bortles and breakout years from several other unproven players to even be respectable this season. As with all teams, I’ll have official win/loss records for the Jaguars after I’ve done all teams’ previews.

Prediction: 3-13 4th in AFC South

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Houston Texans 2015 NFL Season Preview

July 18, 2015 stevenlourie 2015 NFL Season Previews, Texans, Uncategorized

Quarterback

The Texans were an average team in 2014, rebounding from a 2013 season that saw them go 2-14, largely because of a 2-9 record in games decided by a touchdown or less, a -20 turnover margin, a -6 return touchdown margin, and a 44.44% rate of recovering fumbles. Those types of things tend to be very inconsistent from year to year and the Texans flipped those in 2014, going 2-4 in games decided by a touchdown or less, having a +12 turnover margin, having a +3 return touchdown margin, and recovering 55.81% of fumbles. As a result, they went 9-7, one game out of the post-season, and finished 19^th in rate of moving the chains differential at -0.66%.

Their average performance in 2014 was the result of an above average defense that ranked 10^th in rate of moving the chains allowed at 70.62% and a below average offense that ranked 22^nd in rate of moving the chains at 69.96%. The Texans played 4 different quarterbacks in 2014. Ryan Fitzpatrick started the first 9 games of the season before getting benched for backup Ryan Mallett, who started the next 2 games, but then went down for the season with a torn pectoral. Fitzpatrick started the 3 games after that, but went down for the season early in that 3^rd start with a broken leg, forcing 4^th round rookie Tom Savage into action. By the end of the game, Savage had sustained a knee injury that caused him to miss the final 2 games of the season. That forced them to sign ex-Texan quarterback Case Keenum off of St. Louis’ practice squad to start the final 2 weeks of the season.

Fitzpatrick was easily the best of the bunch, even though he was the only one of the four to actually ever get benched. In games started and finished by Fitzpatrick, the Texans moved the chains at a 71.90% rate, as opposed to 66.06% in their other 5 games. If he had started all 16 games, there’s a good chance this team would have made the playoffs. In arguably the best season of his career, Fitzpatrick was Pro Football Focus’ 12^th ranked quarterback and completed 63.1% of his passes for an average of 7.96 YPA, 17 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, showing himself to be a great fit for first year head coach Bill O’Brien’s system. The rest of the team combined to complete 56.6% of their passes for an average of 5.65 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions and all 3 other quarterbacks graded out below average. Fitzpatrick’s initial benching for the unproven Mallett in the middle of a playoff race was inexplicable and his season ending injury ultimately sealed their fate.

Continuing to show their best quarterback no respect, the Texans flipped Fitzpatrick to the Jets for a 7^th round pick this off-season, even though he was only owed a very reasonable 3.25 million dollar salary in 2015. The Texans re-signed Ryan Mallett to a 2-year, 7 million dollar deal this off-season and brought in Brian Hoyer from Cleveland on a 2-year, 10.5 million dollar deal, both of whom are worse than Fitzpatrick. He may be a career journeyman, but he’s had the best two seasons of his career in 2013 and 2014. He graded out below average in every season from 2008-2012, with Buffalo and Cincinnati, but he’s graded out above average in each of the last 2 seasons, for the first two times he’s done that in his career. He may not be nearly as good in 2015 as he was in 2014 because he’s now going into his age 33 season coming off of a broken leg, but he was definitely worth bringing back. The Texans downgraded the quarterback position this off-season, which is never a good idea.

Hoyer and Mallett will compete for the starting job, with Tom Savage, who struggled mightily in limited action as a rookie, completing 10 of 19 for 127 yards and an interception, as the 3rd quarterback, assuming they decide to keep three. Hoyer is the most experienced of the two and the highest paid of the two, so he figures to be the week 1 starter, a hypothesis Texan beat writers have backed up. Hoyer had his moments in the first extended starting experience of his career in 2014, but ultimately proved to not be anything more than a solid backup caliber quarterback. He completed 55.3% of his passes for 7.59 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, while grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 35th ranked quarterback out of 39 eligible. The former undrafted free agent’s career numbers aren’t much different, as he’s completed 56.5% of his passes for an average of 7.23 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions on 630 career attempts.

Mallett is less experienced, but I’d start him just because he’s younger (going into his age 27 season, as opposed to age 30 for Hoyer) and not as much of a proven failure as Hoyer. Mallett had 4 career pass attempts in 3 seasons as a 2011 3rd round pick before coming to Houston and lasted just 2 games in 2014 before going down for the season with a torn pectoral. He actually played one of his starts with that torn pectoral and, as you can imagine, it was a trainwreck, as he completed 21 of 45 for 189 yards and an interception. He was better in his other start, completing 20 of 30 for 211 yards, 2 touchdowns, and an interception, but he’s still completely unproven. Both figure to see starts this season and the quarterback position figures to be a position of major weakness as a result.

Grade: C-

Running Backs

If Ryan Fitzpatrick played well in the 11 games he started and finished, why didn’t the Texans have anything more than an average offense in those 11 games? Well, weirdly enough, the Texans actually didn’t run the ball that well last season. Arian Foster ran the ball well, rushing for 1246 yards and 8 touchdowns on 260 carries, an average of 4.79 yards per carry. However, because he missed 3 games with injury and because the Texans ran the ball with such regularity due to lack of trust in the passing game, backup Alfred Blue got 169 carries and turned them into just 528 yards and 2 touchdowns, an average of 3.12 yards per carry. As a result, the Texans ranked 23^rd in the NFL, rushing for 3.92 yards per carry. Despite that, the Texans ran the ball 551 times, most in the NFL (26 more than 2^nd place Seattle), which hurt their offense.

Because they’re probably going to have worse quarterback play this season, they’ll have to be run heavy again, so they’ll have to hope that Arian Foster can stay healthy and handle 300-350 carries. Blue proved himself to be completely incompetent as a backup handling any sort of workload last season, grading out 43^rd among 57 eligible running backs last season, despite seeing just 341 snaps. I don’t expect much better from him this season, considering he fell all the way to the 6^th round in the 2014 NFL Draft, and the Texans didn’t do much to upgrade the backup running back position this off-season. The Texans should want him more in the 70-80 carry range. His only real competition for the backup job is Chris Polk, who was signed by the Texans after the Eagles let him go this off-season. The 2012 undrafted free agent has rushed for 270 yards and 7 touchdowns on 57 carries in his career. He might be better, but he’s, at the very least, unproven.

Keeping Foster healthy is going to be easier said than done, especially if he’s seeing 20 carries and 23 touches per game again, which is what he saw last season. The 2009 undrafted free agent has had an impressive career, rushing for 6309 yards and 53 touchdowns on 1391 carries (4.54 YPC), while adding another 2041 yards and 12 touchdowns on 227 catches through the air, but he’s only twice played more than 13 games and he’s missed 11 games with injuries over the past 2 seasons. He’s consistently good, grading out above average in 5 of 6 seasons (including 12^th in 2014), but he’s going into his age 29 season so he could decline a little bit this season in terms of effectiveness and he’s not going to become less injury prone as he becomes older. The Texans are going to have to rely on their running game to move the chains this season, but I don’t think they’re strong or deep enough at the running back position to effectively execute that kind of offense with regularity.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

Even though the Texans did have to cycle through 4 different quarterbacks because of injury and even though Foster missed time as well, the Texans actually had just the 6^th fewest offensive adjusted games lost last season. Part of that is because Fitzpatrick and Foster combined to actually only miss 7 games, but part of that is because they didn’t really have very many injuries anywhere else on the field on offense. On the offensive line, their 5 starters missed a combined 1 game (Brandon Brooks week 6) out of 80 possible. They probably won’t have as good of injury luck upfront this season.

The Texans return 4 of 5 starters and have a replacement who was drafted with this situation in mind waiting in the wings. Chris Myers, who was Pro Football Focus’ 16^th ranked center last season, was released this off-season, owed a non-guaranteed 6 million dollar salary, ahead of his age 34 season. He’ll be missed, but the Texans do have a solid replacement plan. To replace him, the Texans will be moving left guard Ben Jones inside to center and starting 2014 2^nd round pick Xavier Su’a-Filo at left guard. Su’a-Filo struggled mightily on 130 snaps as a rookie, but he still could be a long-term starter. He’s just unproven.

Jones, meanwhile, was probably their worst starter last season, though he wasn’t bad at all, grading out only slightly below average. The Texans ranked 6^th in team run blocking grade and 11^th in team pass blocking grade upfront last season, something they’ll have trouble repeating in 2015 thanks to the loss of Myers and the fact that they’ll probably have more injuries upfront. Jones hasn’t played center in the NFL, but he did in college and the 2012 4^th round pick is experienced, making 27 starts in 3 seasons in the league and grading out only slightly below average in all 3 seasons. Like Su’a-Filo, he projects as a decent starter in 2015.

Another way the Texans’ offensive line could be worse this season, in addition to the loss of Chris Myers and more injuries, is right tackle Derek Newton could regress, after being re-signed to a 5-year, 26.5 million dollar deal this off-season. Newton graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 19th ranked offensive tackle, grading out below average in pass protection, but excelling in the run game, grading out 4th in that aspect in 2015. The issue, in addition to his struggles in pass protection, is the 2011 7th round pick is a one-year wonder. Newton has started 46 games over the past 3 seasons, but he was horrible in both 2012 and 2013, grading out as Pro Football Focus 64th ranked offensive tackle out of 80 eligible in 2012 and 72nd out of 76 eligible in 2013. He’s very hard to trust and that was a very risky deal.

The two other spots on the offensive line, left tackle and right guard, are very strong though, barring serious injury. Right guard Brandon Brooks has quickly developed into one of the better guards in the NFL and he’s only going into his age 26 season. The 2012 3^rd round pick flashed on 111 snaps as a rookie, took over the starting job the following off-season and hasn’t looked back, making 31 of 32 starts over the past 2 seasons and grading out 10^th and 8^th in 2013 and 2013 respectively. Heading into his contract year, he figures to be paid very well at some point. The Texans will probably try to lock him up ahead of free agency next March.

At left tackle, Duane Brown is older (going into his age 30 season), but more proven, with 7 years in the league since being drafted in the 1^st round in 2008. He struggled to start his career, grading out below average in each of his first 2 seasons in the league, but he’s graded out above average in the last 5, ranking 21^st, 3^rd, 2^nd, 24^th, and 10^th respectively among offensive tackles in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014 respectively. Even though he’s a little older now and not as good as he was in his prime in 2011 and 2012, he’s still one of the better offensive tackles in the league and should have another strong season in 2015. It’s still a strong offensive line, but one that lost a solid starter from last season, but one should have more injuries this season, and one whose right tackle could easily regress in 2015.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

Whoever starts under center for the Texans will have a very talented wideout to throw to, 2013 1^st round pick DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins broke out in his 2^nd year in the league in 2014, catching 76 passes on 120 attempts (63.3%) for 1210 yards and 6 touchdowns on 534 routes run, an average of 2.27 yards per route run, while grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 12^th ranked wide receiver. Hopkins did grade out below average as a rookie and is technically a one-year wonder, but plenty of good receivers struggle as rookies and that doesn’t mean he can’t repeat what he did in 2014 or even continue to get better.

Hopkins will only be in his age 23 season in 2015 and receivers often have a 3^rd year breakout year. It’s possible that Hopkins is only scratching the surface on his 1^st round talent and will be one of the best few wide receivers in the game in 2-3 years, but even if he just does what he did last year again, he’ll be a huge asset to this team. One concern is he had just 21 catches for 239 yards and no touchdowns in the 5 games that Fitzpatrick didn’t start and finish last season and he could have his numbers kept down by poor quarterback play this season, but that won’t be his fault. He could also see more targets this season with Andre Johnson (141 targets) gone, though he’ll also probably see more double teams as a result. Either way, he’s a very talented young receiver who might just need some help to produce big numbers.

Hopkins’ emergence is a big part of the reason why the Texans felt comfortable letting Andre Johnson go, after 12 years with the team, since they drafted him 3rd overall in 2003. Johnson is going into his age 34 season coming off the worst statistical season of his career in terms of yards per game since his rookie year. He caught 85 passes for 936 yards and 3 touchdowns on 141 targets (60.3%) and 487 routes run (1.92 yards per route run) and only graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 40^th ranked wide receiver. His overall numbers weren’t bad, but if you rank 27^th among wide receivers in yards and 6^th in targets, it’s a problem. Cutting him not only saved them 8.5 million, but it also freed up more targets for a budding young receiver. It’s tough, but Johnson is on the way down and Hopkins is on the way up, and that’s the way the NFL goes.

To replace Johnson, the Texans signed Cecil Shorts from Jacksonville. Shorts, a 2011 4th round pick, once looked like a very promising young receiver. After a rookie year where he didn’t see the field much (179 total snaps and 2 catches), Shorts caught 55 passes for 979 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2012. He was even better than those numbers suggested, as he did that despite missing 2 games with injuries and not playing more than 50% of his team’s snaps until the team’s 6th game of the season. He ran 423 routes on the season, giving him 2.31 yards per route run, 8th in the NFL, and he did that despite playing with the likes of Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne at quarterback.

However, injuries prevented him from taking that next step. He missed 6 games with injury in 2013 and 2014 combined and averaged 60 catches for 667 yards and 2 touchdowns per season. He’s never played a 16 game season in his career, playing 50 out of a possible 64 games in his career and being limited in many others, and he’s only graded out above average once in 4 seasons in the league, with his worst season coming in 2014, when he graded out 98^th out of 110 eligible wide receiver. He’s a marginal starting wide receiver at best, but he’s a decent value on a 2-year, 6 million deal. As weird as this sounds, from a financial standpoint, Shorts might be better for the Texans than Johnson would have been in 2015.

The Texans also have better depth at wide receiver than they did last season, as their 3rd receiver last year was Damaris Johnson, who graded out 107th out of 110 eligible wide receivers on 586 snaps. Nate Washington, signed to a 1-year, 1 million dollar deal, coming over from Tennessee, will probably be their 3rd receiver this year. Nate Washington has been around for a while, playing in every game in each of the last 9 seasons, catching 411 passes for an average of 6296 yards and 40 touchdowns with the Steelers and Titans. He’s never been great, with only one season of 1000+ yards, but he’s always been decent and dependable.

However, now he’s going into his age 32 season and coming off of an underwhelming season in which he caught 40 passes for 647 yards and 2 touchdowns and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 96th ranked wide receiver out of 110 eligible in pass catching grade. He’s not very good at this stage of his career, but he should be better than Johnson was last season. The Texans also used a 3^rd round pick on Jaelen Strong, further adding to their wide receiver depth. The team likes him, but he’ll probably be the 4^th receiver at best as a rookie and push for more playing time in 2016 and beyond.

Things aren’t good at tight end either. Garrett Graham, a 2010 4^th round pick, was re-signed to a 3-year, 11.25 million dollar deal last off-season, but he’s graded out below average in each of the last 2 seasons, after grading out above average in the first 3 seasons of his career. He graded out 57^th out of 64 eligible tight ends in 2013 and 55^th out of 67 eligible in 2014. A poor blocker at 6-3 243, Graham has never had more than 49 catches in a season and has just 96 catches in his career. He’s a solid #2 tight end, but he’s not a starting caliber player.

The Texans drafted CJ Fiedorowicz in the 3^rd round in the 2014 draft to potentially be a starter long-term, but he was awful as a rookie, grading out 63^rd among 67 eligible tight ends on 485 snaps, with no one playing fewer snaps and grading out worse. He could be better in his 2^nd year in the league, but I wouldn’t bet on him ever becoming a starting caliber player. Most 3^rd round picks don’t. There’s a reason they fall to the 3^rd round. Ryan Griffin is also in the mix for snaps, after grading out below average on 339 snaps last season. The 2013 6^th round pick also graded out below average on 368 snaps as a rookie and doesn’t appear to be a starting caliber player long-term.

The Texans best tight end is arguably defensive end JJ Watt, who flashed on 9 snaps last season, catching 3 passes for 4 yards and 2 touchdowns. At one point a collegiate tight end, Watt could probably be a starting tight end in the NFL, but he’s far more valuable on defense and the Texans would risk tiring him out by having him play a significant amount of snaps at tight end. He might be able to handle it, but it’s not worth the risk, considering how good he is on defense. He’ll remain a gadget, goal line tight end, if anything. The Texans will struggle to find a consistent target after DeAndre Hopkins and struggle to move the ball through the air.

Grade: C+

Defensive Line

Speaking of JJ Watt, he won the Defensive Player of the Year award last season for the 2nd time in 3 years and probably should have won it in all 3 seasons. He’s graded out as Pro Football Focus’ top rated player in each of the last 3 seasons. Those ratings aren’t necessarily meant to be compared across positions, but Watt has been so much better than everyone else that it’s a fairly safe assessment to make. With Watt over the past 3 seasons, we’ve witnessed a stretch of dominance by a player that hasn’t been seen since Reggie White’s prime at the most recent. The only season in his career when he didn’t grade out #1 at his position was his rookie year in 2011, when the 11^th overall pick “only” graded out 5^th among 3-4 defensive ends. Last season was arguably the best season of Watt’s career and his rating on Pro Football Focus reflected that, though the ratings are not meant to be compared across seasons either, which is why I said arguably.

Justin Houston did have more sacks than Watt last season, 23 as compared to 21, but Watt plays a position where it’s tougher to get to the quarterback. Also, while Houston had just 8 quarterback hits, Watt had 44. No one else had more than 21 in the NFL at any position. Watt added 54 quarterback hurries, which is actually less than Houston’s 56, and in terms of overall pass rush productivity (sacks + .75 hits + .75 hurries divided by pass rush snaps), Houston was actually the better of the two at 15.7 as compared to 15.0, but, again, Watt plays a much tougher position from which to get to the quarterback. No 3-4 defensive end other than Watt was better than 9.7 in pass rush productivity. Watt’s position is also more important to run defense than Houston.

Watt wasn’t nearly as good at his position against the run as he was as a pass rusher, but he still ranked 4th in that aspect this season. He’ll never be as valuable as a top quarterback and he probably won’t even make the playoffs again until his team figures out the quarterback situation, but he’s definitely the most valuable non-quarterback in the NFL. He’s easily the biggest reason why the Texans ranked 10th in opponent’s rate of moving the chains last season, as the Texans didn’t have a single player other than Watt finish in the top-10 at their position. Extended for 100 million over 6 years last off-season, Watt is locked up through his age 32 season in 2021 and at a very reasonable price, considering Justin Houston and Ndamukong Suh got 101 and 114 million respectively over 6 years.

Watt should actually have some help on the defensive line this season, as the Texans signed Vince Wilfork to a 2-year, 9 million dollar deal. Cut by the Patriots to save 8.5 million, Wilfork isn’t the player he once was, going into his age 34 season, coming off of a torn Achilles in 2013, and he’ll only play a two-down base package role as a nose tackle this season, but he should still be useful to the Texans. At the very least, he should be an upgrade over Ryan Pickett and Jerrell Powe, who played 290 and 277 snaps respectively at nose tackle last season. Both were disastrous, especially Powe, as no one played fewer snaps than Powe at the defensive tackle position and graded out worse.

Wilfork, meanwhile, has graded out above average in 6 of 8 seasons in Pro Football Focus’ history. One of the seasons he didn’t was his injury shortened 2013 season and he bounced back in his first season back in 2014, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 13th ranked 3-4 defensive end, including 6th against the run, which is his specialty. He’ll move back to his natural position of nose tackle in Houston in 2015, where his run stopping abilities can be best utilized (though he can still play 3-4 defensive end in a pinch), and he should have at least one more season of above average run play left in the tank. He was a risky signing because of his age, but he should work out.

Jared Crick will be the other starting defensive end, opposite Watt and next to Wilfork. The 2012 4^th round pick has never graded out above average in his career, grading out below average on 220 and 277 snaps in 2012 and 2013 respectively as a reserve and then last season on 726 snaps as a starter. However, he was only slightly below average last season, so he’s not a horrible starter. The bigger problem is the Texans’ lack of depth behind him. Watt never needs to come off the field, so that’s not a concern, but Tim Jamison was their top reserve last season and he graded out 44^th among 47 eligible 3-4 defensive ends on 420 snaps. He’s gone now, but Jeoffrey Pagan, a 2014 6^th round pick who struggled mightily on 191 snaps as a rookie, is their top reserve now, which isn’t a better situation. Still, it’s a strong defensive line, almost entirely because of Watt.

Grade: A

Linebackers

While the Texans didn’t have a lot of injuries on offense, they did have more than an average amount of adjusted games lost on defense (20^th fewest). That alone doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll be a better defense this season, but they do have pair of talented linebackers who had serious injury problems last season that the Texans are hoping can bounce back. The first is middle linebacker Brian Cushing. Cushing, a 2009 1^st round pick, has had some fantastic seasons in his career, grading out 2^nd among 4-3 outside linebackers as a rookie in 2009, winning Defensive Rookie of the Year, and 3^rd among middle linebackers in 2011. He graded out above average in each of the first 5 seasons of his career from 2009-2013, but he missed 20 games with injury in 2012 and 2013 combined, suffering a torn ACL and a broken leg, and it appears those injuries have taken a serious toll on him.

Even though he played in 14 games in 2014, he was nowhere near his old self, grading out below average for the first time in his career, 38^th among 60 eligible middle linebackers. Cushing dealt with ankle, wrist, and knee problems for most of the season and had surgery on all 3 of those body parts this off-season. The reviews of him this off-season have been good, so there’s some hope for a bounce back year, only going into his age 28 season in 2015, but it’s very hard to trust him to stay 100%. His last healthy season was way back in 2011. At the very least, I think the Cushing of 2009 and 2011 is gone.

The Texans added Benadrick McKinney in the 2^nd round of the draft to start next to Cushing, so if Cushing gets hurt again, Mike Mohamed, who graded out above average on 524 snaps last season, would replace him. Mohamed is a 2011 6^th round pick who had played 13 career defensive snaps prior to last season, so he’s hard to trust, but he’s more than adequate as a 3^rd middle linebacker. The addition of McKinney makes them much deeper at the position and much better equipped to handle another Cushing injury.

The other linebacker with a serious injury concern is Jadeveon Clowney, the #1 overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft. The Texans improved by 7 games in the win total last season in spite of him, not as a result of him, as he had about as of a disappointing rookie year as he could have had. Not only did he grade out below average, but he was limited to 146 snaps in 4 games by knee problems and had to have off-season microfracture surgery, which puts him in a race to play week 1. Even if he does play all or most of this season, microfracture surgery is a very tough surgery to recover from and he probably won’t come close to fulfilling his huge upside until 2016 at the earliest. It’ll be hard for the Texans to count on either Cushing or Clowney being significantly more valuable than they were last season or either one of them contributing to any sort of defensive improvement.

Unlike middle linebacker, the Texans don’t have good depth at outside linebacker behind Clowney. Brooks Reed, who graded out above average on 799 snaps last season, signed in Atlanta this off-season, leaving John Simon as the 3^rd outside linebacker. Simon, a 2013 4^th round pick, flashed on 239 snaps last season, after playing just 3 as a rookie, but is a long way away from convincing me that he can be a competent every down outside linebacker if the Texans need him to be. They’ll have to hope that Clowney can stay healthy, allowing Simon to work as a rotational player behind Clowney and Whitney Mercilus.

Mercilus is locked in as an every down player at the other outside linebacker spot in Houston’s 3-4, after getting a 4-year, 26 million dollar extension this off-season. That deal was a classic case of a team overpaying for a marginal talent. Mercilus has largely been disappointing since the Texans drafted him 26^th overall in 2012. Mercilus has graded out below average in all 3 seasons he’s been in the NFL, including 28th out of 34 eligible in 2012 and 42nd out of 42 eligible in 2013. He’s coming off of the best season of his career in 2014, but he still only graded out 35th out of 46 eligible, particularly struggling as a pass rusher. It’s a very underwhelming linebacking corps overall behind a strong defensive line.

Grade: C+

Secondary

Kareem Jackson and Johnathan Joseph have been a solid duo of starting cornerbacks for the Texans since they brought Joseph in as a free agent four off-seasons ago, but there was at least some potential that one or both of them would not be back in 2015. Jackson was a free agent, as his 5-year rookie deal had expired. The 2010 1^st round pick has had an up and down career, grading out 11^th among cornerbacks in 2014 and 12^th among cornerbacks in 2012, but below average in the other 3 seasons. There are two ways to look at this. One is to see him as an inconsistent player. The other is to see him as someone who got off to a slow start in his career, but has generally been good since then.

Joseph, meanwhile, could have been cut this off-season, ahead of an age 31 contract year, in which he was owed a non-guaranteed 8.5 million dollars. The Texans signed Johnathan Joseph to a 5-year, 48.75 million dollar deal four off-seasons ago and it’s largely been a good deal for them as Joseph has missed just 4 games in 4 seasons and graded out above average in all 4 years. Joseph’s best season came in the first season of his deal in 2011, when he graded out 11th at his position, but he’s played at only about a level lower in the other 3 seasons, grading out 44th, 25th, and 23^rd in 2012, 2013, and 2014 respectively.

The Texans ended up keeping both of them, cutting salary at other spots, namely center (Chris Myers) and wide receiver (Andre Johnson). Joseph will return after signing an extension this off-season. He won’t make 8.5 million this season, but the Texans gave him 11.5 million guaranteed on a 3-year, 22 million dollar deal, which gives him some long-term security, in exchange for giving the Texans some additional financial flexibility. Even though he’s on the wrong side of 30, he should grade out above average for the 8^th straight season. Meanwhile, Jackson was re-signed to a 4-year, 34 million dollar deal which is risky, but pretty appropriate. Both should be above average starters again this season.

Despite that, the Texans used their 1^st round pick (16^th overall) on Kevin Johnson out of Wake Forest. Johnson doesn’t fill an immediate pressing need, but he should be an upgrade on AJ Bouye, who graded out 71^st among 110 eligible cornerbacks on 644 snaps as the 3^rd cornerback last season, and he should be a long-term replacement for Joseph, whenever the Texans decide to part ways with him. Johnson could take a little bit to get used to the NFL, but it’s a talented trio of cornerbacks.

While things are largely the same at cornerback this season, the Texans underwent a complete overhaul at safety this off-season. Kendrick Lewis (1097 snaps), DJ Swearinger (1037 snaps), and Danieal Manning (591 snaps) were their top-3 safeties last season in terms of snaps played and all 3 are gone. Lewis signed with Baltimore as a free agent and Manning retired ahead of his age 33 season. Both of those two players graded out above average last season and will be missed. Swearinger, however, graded out 78^th among 87 eligible safeties last season and got cut with two very affordable years left on his rookie deal because of disciplinary problems, eventually latching on in Tampa Bay. Swearinger played around the line of scrimmage in place of a 2^nd linebacker in sub packages last season, with Manning coming in for him in the secondary, but, with the addition of McKinney through the draft, the Texans no longer needed him to do that.

Stevie Brown and Rahim Moore were brought in as free agents this off-season on a 1-year, 825K dollar deal and a 3-year, 12 million dollar respectively and both will play every down as traditional safeties. They’re going to be a solid duo. Stevie Brown, a 2010 7th round pick, played just 151 snaps combined in 2010 and 2011, but had a breakout year in 2012, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 27th ranked safety. Unfortunately for him, he tore his ACL and missed his entire contract year in 2013 and was forced to settle for a one year deal back with the Giants to rehab his value. His 2014 season was a mixed bag. He graded out about average and played all 16 games, but he made just 8 starts and played just 559 snaps, as he was benched for a stretch in the middle of the season. As a result, he was forced to settle for a near minimum deal this off-season and he should be a strong value for the Texans.

Moore should also be a strong value. Given that it was a weak safety market, especially after Devin McCourty re-signed with the Patriots, I thought Rahim Moore had a good chance to be overpaid. There was an argument to be made that he was the best safety that hit the open market this off-season. Moore was Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked safety in 2012 in his 2nd year in the league (only his age 22 season) and it looked like the 2012 2nd round pick had a very bright future. Moore hasn’t quite lived up to the upside he showed in 2012 over the past 2 seasons, and his career was briefly stalled by a frightening, rare leg injury that could have cost him his leg or his life. However, he’s still graded out around average in each of the last 2 seasons on Pro Football Focus and made all 16 starts in his return from injury this season. Besides, he’s only going into his age 25 season so his best football could definitely still be ahead of him. He and Brown are a solid duo in a solid secondary.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Texans were an average team that won 9 games last season. I have a hard time seeing them being better than that this season, considering they got rid of their best quarterback and considering that there isn’t really anywhere else on the field where they figure to be significantly better this season. With the Titans actually adding a legitimate franchise quarterback (or at least a potential legitimate franchise quarterback) and some nice parts on defense, the Texans could actually be leapfrogged in the division by the Titans. At the very least, they’re closer to the Titans and maybe even the hapless Jaguars than they are to catching the Colts. As with all teams, I’ll have official win/loss records for the Texans after I’ve done all team’s previews.

Prediction: 6-10 3rd in AFC South

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Tennessee Titans 2015 NFL Season Preview

July 16, 2015 stevenlourie 2015 NFL Season Previews, Titans, Uncategorized

Quarterback

The Titans were one of the worst teams in the NFL last season, finishing 2-14 and 31^st in rate of moving the chains differential. The problem wasn’t just on one side of the ball, as they ranked 30^th in rate of moving the chains and 28^th in rate of moving the chains allowed. The Titans made a fair amount of moves all over the field to try to fix that, but easily the most franchise defining one was the selection of quarterback Marcus Mariota 2^nd overall, turning down multiple trade offers to select the ex-Oregon quarterback and 2014 Heisman award winner.

Most teams that are picking as high as the Titans did in this past draft are doing so largely as a result of poor quarterback play and the Titans are no exception. Jake Locker, Charlie Whitehurst, and Zach Mettenberger all saw significant playing time under center for the Titans last season, as the Titans tried to find some sort of answer and they all struggled. Combined, they completed 58.3% of their passes for an average of 7.29 YPA, 20 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions, a huge part of the reason why the Titans moved the chains at a mere 65.44% rate. The Titans were fortunate enough to be picking high in a year where a legitimate franchise quarterback option was available to them and smart enough to pull the trigger.

It’s unclear how good Mariota can be as a rookie, but he’ll probably be an upgrade over the trio that played last season. That being said, he is pretty raw, only turning 22 this season, coming over from what was very much a college style offense at the University of Oregon and now having to adapt to a Ken Whisenhunt offense that has historically not been very friendly to young quarterbacks. For what it’s worth, Whisenhunt has said he will tailor his offense to fit Mariota’s skill set and incorporate some of what Mariota did well in college.

I think, long-term, Mariota will be better than Jameis Winston, who went #1 overall to Tampa Bay, because of his superior accuracy and athleticism, but he could struggle as a rookie. Over the past 10 years, quarterbacks drafted in the top-5 have completed just 57.7% of their passes for an average of 6.85 YPA, 148 touchdowns, and 140 interceptions, finding life in the NFL much harder than they expected it to be. With a weak supporting cast around him, the Titans fans shouldn’t expect too much more than that from their rookie signal caller. Those kinds of numbers wouldn’t be a death sentence, as that group includes the likes of Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, and Matt Stafford, but it’s definitely a reality. Developing a young quarterback is a marathon, not a sprint.

Grade: C+

Receiving Corps

The Titans’ weak offensive supporting cast around Mariota isn’t for lack of trying, as they spent both a 2^nd and a 3^rd round pick on the offense. This shouldn’t be a surprise, considering how often teams that select a quarterback in the first round use their subsequent pick on an offensive player to help that quarterback. Since 2005, 19 of 25 teams that have selected a quarterback in the first round have used their next pick on an offensive player, which I don’t think is a coincidence.

For the Titans, that next pick was 40^th overall in the 2^nd round (after a trade down) and they used it on former Missouri and Oklahoma wide receiver Dorial Green-Beckham. DGB has great talent, great upside, and off-the-charts athleticism (4.49 40 at 6-5 237), but was kicked off the Missouri football team for a variety of off-the-field issues and didn’t play at all last season, only practicing with the Oklahoma football team. If not for the off-the-field stuff, he would have been an easy top-10 pick, but between his unreliable character and the fact that he hasn’t played in a real game since 2013, he’s one of the riskiest picks in the draft. He’s the definition of a boom or bust draft pick. As a rookie, he’ll battle for playing time in an overall very unresolved receiving corps.

Nate Washington led the way with 782 snaps last season, grading out 80^th among 110 eligible wide receivers, including 96^th in pure pass catching grade. He signed as a free agent in Houston this off-season and, though he had some good years in Tennessee, he won’t really be missed, going into his age 32 season. Kendall Wright (678 snaps) and Justin Hunter (605 snaps) remain, but they also graded out below average. Wright wasn’t terrible, but Hunter graded out 89^th out of 110 eligible wide receivers. In addition to adding Green-Beckham, the Titans also signed veteran Harry Douglas, who was cut by the Atlanta Falcons.

Wright is the only one locked into a role and should lead Titan wide receivers in catches for the 4^th straight year. The 2012 1^st round pick graded out below average as a rookie, but seemed to have a breakout year in 2013. He caught 94 of 134 passes (70.1%) for 1079 yards and 2 touchdowns on 539 routes run, an average of 2.00 yards per route run, and graded out 18^th among wide receivers that season. However, he saw his slash line fall to 57/715/6 in 2014 and, while he wasn’t horrible, he still graded out below average.

In 3 seasons in the league, he’s caught 215 of 315 passes (68.3%) for 2420 yards and 12 touchdowns on 1407 routes run, an average of 1.72 yards per route run. Part of his inability to put up #1 receiver numbers has to do with poor quarterback play and he hasn’t been a bust or anything, but he hasn’t shown himself to be anything more than a complementary receiver and the Titans are asking him to be a coverage changing #1 guy. The Titans picked up his 7.32 million dollar option for 2016, but that’s guaranteed for injury only, so the fact that they did that doesn’t tell us a ton. They’ll be hoping he can have a bounce back year and provide a consistent target for their rookie quarterback.

The other three (Green-Beckham, Hunter, and Harry Douglas) will compete for the other starting job and playing time in 3-wide receiver sets. Hunter was predicted by many to have a breakout year last season and he certainly has the athleticism, as the 2013 2^nd round pick ran a 4.44 40 at 6-4 196, but instead he fell flat on his face. He also graded out below average on 340 snaps as a rookie and has overall been a disappointment thus far. The Titans are probably holding out hope that he can have a breakout year this year, but the selection of Green-Beckham suggests they’re not too confident. Hunter could wind up as far down the depth chart as 4^th.

Douglas, meanwhile, has never graded out above average in his career, since the Falcons took him in the 3^rd round in 2008, largely playing as a slot specialist. Even in 2013, when he caught 85 passes for 1068 yards and 2 touchdowns in place of an injured Julio Jones, he wasn’t very efficient, as he was targeted 126 times. Things won’t get better as he heads into his age 30 season in 2015. He was cut by the Falcons this off-season to save 3.5 million and the Titans signed him as veteran insurance, bringing him in on a 3-year, 11.25 million dollar deal that actually pays him more than 3.5 million annually. If he has to play a significant role this season, the Titans are in trouble in the receiving corps, but that could very well happen.

Tight end Delanie Walker actually led the Titans in catches and receiving yards last season, catching 63 passes on 100 attempts (63.0%) for 890 yards and 4 touchdowns on 503 routes run, an average of 1.77 yards per route run. Primarily a blocker throughout his career, since going in the 6^th round in 2006, the Titans signed him to a 4-year, 17.5 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago with the intention of turning him into an every down tight end who could contribute in the passing game. It was a weird move and it looked like it wouldn’t work out as Walker put up just a 60/571/6 slash line in his first season in Tennessee, grading out below average in pass catching grade once again.

However, Walker inexplicably broke out as a pass catcher in 2014, grading out above average in pass catching grade for the first time since 2008 (when he played just 143 snaps). Overall, he was Pro Football Focus’ 7^th ranked tight end. Now going into his age 31 season, I’m skeptical that he can replicate that strong season as a receiver, but he should once again be a strong blocker at the very least. He’s graded out above average as a run blocker in all 8 seasons in Pro Football Focus’ history. He’s not a bad player, but when he’s your best offensive playmaker, you’re in trouble.

Anthony Fasano, who the Titans signed to a 2-year, 5.25 million dollar deal this off-season, will probably be the #2 tight end, focusing primarily on blocking in two-tight end sets. Anthony Fasano played 678 snaps in 2014 for the Chiefs at tight end, but he struggled mightily, grading out 61st out of 67 eligible, and now he’s going into his age 31 season. The Chiefs cut him to save 3.1 million. Fasano graded out above average in every season from 2007-2012, including 6^th in 2011 and 18^th in 2012, but those days are likely long gone. He’s a decent #2 tight end at best. It’s not a good receiving corps that Mariota has to work with.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

Not only did the Titans use a 2^nd round pick on Dorial Green-Beckham after taking Marcus Mariota 2^nd overall, they also used their 3^rd round pick on an offensive player, taking offensive lineman Jeremiah Poutasi. He could start at right tackle as a rookie, following the release of Michael Oher, who graded out 75^th among 84 eligible offensive tackles last season in 11 starts, before going down for the season with injury. That would definitely be a problem, especially since many draft experts thought he’d need to move to guard in the NFL because of his lack of athleticism, but the Titans don’t have another option.

Poutasi will compete with veterans Byron Bell and Byron Stingily. Bell is experienced, with 56 starts in 4 seasons since the Panthers signed him as an undrafted free agent in 2011, but he’s not very good at all. He was horrible to start his career at right tackle, grading out 69th out of 76 eligible in 2011, 61st out of 80 eligible in 2012, and 53rd out of 76 eligible in 2013. Predictably, he wasn’t better in 2014 when forced to play the blindside, grading out 83rd out of 84 eligible. Stingily, meanwhile, was a 2011 6^th round pick. He’s graded out above average just once in 4 seasons in the NFL (2012) and has never played more than the 248 snaps he played last season. He played horribly in limited action last season. Even with Oher gone, right tackle remains a massive problem, to the point where the Titans’ best option might be to start a 3^rd round rookie.

Taylor Lewan will start on the other side. The 2014 1^st round pick was stuck behind veterans Michael Oher and Michael Roos when he was drafted, but made his first start week 6, after Roos went down for the season with injury. Lewan graded out above average on 359 snaps before going down for the season week 12 with an injury of his own. With Roos retiring ahead of his age 33 season this off-season, Lewan will go into his 2^nd season as the undisputed starter and, now healthy, he has the talent to have a breakout year on the blindside. That’s not necessarily going to happen and he’s still unproven, but he is one of the few bright spots on this offensive line and having him healthy and starting for a whole season will be a boost to this team.

With so many injuries and inconsistencies upfront, the Titans had 12 different offensive linemen play a snap last season. Only 3 of them graded out above average on Pro Football Focus, the retired Roos, Lewan, and right guard Chance Warmack. Warmack, the 10^th overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, hasn’t quite lived up to his potential, but he’s made 32 starts in 2 seasons in the league and played decently, grading out slightly below average as a rookie and slightly above average last season. That, by default, makes him one of the best players on the Titans’ offensive line, and, only going into his age 24 season, he still has a good chance to continue improving. During the final 7 weeks of last season, he was Pro Football Focus’ 4^th ranked guard, a small sample size, but a very good sign for 2015 and beyond.

At the other guard spot, Andy Levitre will start once again. The 2009 2^nd round pick has made all 96 starts in 6 seasons in the league, but graded out below average for the first time since his rookie year in 2014. The Titans, who signed him to a 6-year, 46.8 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago, kept him at a scheduled non-guaranteed 6.5 million dollar salary for 2015 because they have a bunch of cap space, no better alternative, and they believe he can bounce back. Levitre graded out 36^th, 5^th, 8^th, and 13^th in 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013 respectively and he is only going into his age 29 season, so there definitely is bounce back potential.

Outside of Lewan and Warmack and maybe Levitre, the rest of the offensive line is in trouble. I already mentioned their problems at right tackle; things at center aren’t any better. Brian Schwenke was the starter there last season, grading out 32^nd among 41 eligible centers before going down for the season week 12. He wasn’t any better as a 4^th round rookie in 2013, grading out 30^th among 35 eligible centers on 573 snaps, no surprise given where he was drafted. He doesn’t project as a starting caliber player long-term, but the Titans don’t have another option.

Chris Spencer took over for him after he went down for the season, but he was even worse and now is a free agent expected to retire ahead of his age 33 season, leaving the Titans with only 6^th round rookie Andy Gallik behind Schwenke. Gallik probably won’t be an upgrade, but he could see action as a rookie because it’s such a problem position. It’s not a good offensive line, but if Lewan can stay healthy, Levitre can bounce back, and Warmack can continue developing, they should be improved this season and help this offense move the chains more effectively.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

Another thing the Titans can do move the chains better in 2015 is to run the ball better, after they rushed for 4.06 yards per carry last season, 18^th in the NFL. Even worse, they picked up just 75 first downs on the ground, 25^th in the NFL, 19 of which came from quarterbacks and wide receivers. You can’t really blame the offensive line for that as, while they ranked 28^th in team pass blocking grade last season, they were middle of the pack (14^th) in run blocking. Bishop Sankey and Shonn Greene led the team in carries with 152 and 94 carries respectively and combined for just 44 rushing first downs on 246 carries. Sankey rushed for 569 yards and 2 touchdowns on 152 carries, an average of 3.74 YPC, while Greene rushed for 392 yards and 2 touchdowns on 94 carries, an average of 4.17 YPC.

Greene was let go this off-season, owed a non-guaranteed 3.35 million ahead of his age 30 season, but Sankey remains. The 2014 2^nd round pick was a bust as a rookie, not just struggling on the ground, but also struggling as a receiver, adding just 18 catches for 133 yards. He could be better in his 2^nd year in the league, but there are definitely no guarantees. More of a finesse runner at 5-10 209, Sankey could end up splitting carries in 2015 with 5^th round rookie David Cobb, who is more of a powerful runner at 5-11 229, but fell in the draft because of a severe lack of speed and agility. It’s an underwhelming young duo of running backs.

Dexter McCluster remains as gadget player and an obvious passing situation running back behind both of them. The running back/wide receiver hybrid rushed for just 131 yards on 40 carries last season and has a career average of just 4.13 yards per carry on 192 carries, but he did add 26 catches for 191 yards and a touchdown last season and graded out above average on 238 snaps as a result. He definitely wasn’t worth the 3-year, 9 million dollar deal the Titans gave him last off-season, as they really like overpaying for marginal offensive talent (Shonn Greene, Anthony Fasano, Harry Douglas, etc.), but he does a serve. With Leon Washington (22 catches for 159 yards and 2 touchdowns last season) gone and the coaching staff, for whatever reason, talking about getting McCluster more involved, he could have 30-40 catches this season. He won’t help the Titans on the ground though.

Grade: C+

Defensive Line

While the Titans didn’t take any meaningful steps to improve their offense in the short-term (aside from maybe the selection of Mariota), they did take steps on defense, adding cornerback Perrish Cox, outside linebacker Brian Orakpo, and safety Da’Norris Searcy, all of whom are above average starters, in order to fix what was one of the worst defenses in the NFL last season. They didn’t really do anything on the defensive line, but that might not be the end of the world, as their defensive line wasn’t a huge problem last season.

Jurrell Casey led the way with 931 snaps played, epitomizing an every down player. The 2011 3^rd round pick has developed into one of the best interior defensive linemen in the NFL and got a well-deserved 4-year, 36 million dollar extension last off-season. Casey spent the first 3 years of his career in a 4-3, grading out 16^th, 8^th, and 5^th among defensive tackles, and then showed his scheme versatility when the Titans switched to a 3-4 last off-season. He graded out 7^th among 3-4 defensive ends in 2014, as one of the Titans’ lone bright spots. Only going into his age 26 season, I expect more of the same from him this season, only with a better supporting cast.

The rest of the Titans’ 3-man defensive line is largely up for grabs, but there are some talented players in the mix. Sammie Lee Hill (597 snaps), Ropati Pitoitua (394 snaps), Mike Martin (357 snaps), Karl Klug (338 snaps), Al Woods (297 snaps), and DaQuan Jones (143 snaps) all played a decent amount last season and all 6 will return and play a decent amount of snaps again. Sammie Lee Hill was their starting nose tackle last season. The 2009 4^th round pick graded out above average in every season from 2010-2013, but never played more than 437 snaps in any of those seasons and graded out below average last season on a career high 597 snaps. He probably won’t play as many snaps again this season and he should be in the 300-500 snap range again. He’s a solid rotational player who has a good chance to bounce back in 2015. The 6-4 329 pounder can play both nose tackle and defensive end in a 3-4 defense.

Ropati Pitoitua played 12 games last season, starting 11 of them, and primarily playing in base packages. He graded out 9^th among 3-4 defensive ends in pure run stopping grade, but didn’t do much as a pass rusher. This is nothing new for him as he’s graded out above average as a run stopper in each of the last 2 seasons, but hasn’t graded out above average as a pass rusher since 2009, when he played just 48 snaps. The 2008 undrafted free agent is already going into his age 30 season and is only a base package player. Like Hill, Pitoitua will probably play fewer snaps per game this season because the Titans have mentioned they see 2014 4^th round pick DaQuan Jones as a starter this season and he should have a regular role, at least in base packages, after he played just 143 below average snaps as a rookie. The 6-4 323 pounder could see action at both nose tackle and defensive end. I don’t have a ton of faith in him, but he could surprise.

Mike Martin and Karl Klug fit in as sub package rushers. Both graded out above average as pass rushers last season. Martin, a 2012 3^rd round pick, has never played more than 435 snaps in a season and has only once graded out above average against the run, but he’s graded out above average as a pass rusher in all 3 seasons he’s been in the league, maxing out at 10^th among defensive tackles in 2013. He should have a similar season again this year on 300-400 or so snaps. Klug, meanwhile, is a similar, but probably slightly better player. The 2011 5^th round pick has graded out above average as a pass rusher in all 4 seasons he’s been in the league, maxing out at 10^th in 2013, but has never graded out above average as a pass rusher or played more than 520 snaps in a season.

Woods rounds out the group and is probably the worst of the bunch, grading out below average in all 5 seasons he’s been in the league since getting drafted in the 4^th round in 2010, never playing more than 297 snaps in a season. The 6-4 314 pounder was a backup nose tackle last season. He won’t have a very big role at all this season and will almost definitely play the fewest snaps of the bunch. Things won’t be too much different on the defensive line this season, but that’s not going to be a big issue because the defensive line wasn’t the problem last season.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The problem last season was the linebackers and the secondary and the Titans did a good job of adding talent there in free agency. Brian Orakpo comes over as a free agent from Washington on a 4-year, 31 million dollar deal, upgrading a position where Kamerion Wimbley, Shaun Phillips, and Quentin Groves were awful last season on 549, 362, and 249 snaps respectively. Wimbley and Phillips graded out 44^th and 43^rd respectively out of 46 eligible 3-4 outside linebackers, while Groves would have graded out 4^th worst at the position if he had been eligible, despite such limited playing time. No one played fewer snaps and graded out worse at the position than Groves.

Orakpo should be a substantial upgrade. Orakpo was Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2013 and was franchised tagged as a result. However, Orakpo ended up missing 9 games with a torn pectoral in 2014, the 3rd time in his career that he’s torn his pectoral. Now he hits free agency again having missed 24 of 48 games over the past 3 seasons with torn pectorals. He’s very talented when he’s on the field though. In addition to his strong 2013, the 2009 1st round pick also ranked 7th at his position in 2011. He’s an obvious injury risk, but he has a huge upside, still only going into his age 29 season.

He’ll play opposite Derrick Morgan, who was re-signed to a 4-year, 27 million dollar deal this off-season. A rare first round hit by the Titans, Derrick Morgan’s career got off to a slow start as he was limited to 112 snaps by a torn ACL as a rookie in 2010 and struggled in his return from that injury in 2011, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 64th ranked 4-3 defensive end out of 67 eligible. However, he’s graded out above average in each of the past three seasons, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2012, 11th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2013, and 8th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2014. Most importantly, he’s missed just 2 games over the past 4 seasons and doesn’t have any significant injuries on his record other than that torn ACL. His scheme versatility and his pass rush ability are very valuable and the Titans did well to lock up a talented young player. The only issue at outside linebacker is depth as 6^th round rookie Deiontrez Mount could be their 3^rd outside linebacker, which would become an issue if Orakpo were to get hurt again. However, Orakpo and Morgan are one of the best edge rusher duos in the NFL, as long as both are healthy.

Inside at middle linebacker, Avery Williamson was a steal as a 5^th round rookie last season, playing 834 snaps, making 12 starts, and grading out above average, 17^th among middle linebackers. He’s still a one-year wonder and I don’t think he’s at the point where the fact that the whole league let him drop to the 5th round is irrelevant, but he definitely looks like a steal and could easily be a long-term starter. He should remain a starter in 2015.

Zach Brown, who missed all but 4 snaps last season with a torn pectoral, opening the door for Williamson, will compete with fellow veteran Wesley Woodyard for the other starting middle linebacker job and appears to be the favorite right now. The 2012 2^nd round pick Brown graded out slightly above average as a rookie and slightly below average in 2013, making a combined 27 starts in those 2 seasons at outside linebacker in the Titans’ old 4-3 defense. Prior to last season, he had never missed a game with injury in his NFL career so I wouldn’t classify him as injury prone and he should be able to have a solid bounce back year.

Woodyard, meanwhile, signed a 4-year, 15.75 million dollar deal last off-season, coming over from Denver, but struggled in his first season in Tennessee, grading out 42^nd among 60 eligible middle linebackers. The 2008 undrafted free agent is experienced, with 48 starts over the past 4 seasons, but he’s graded out below average in 3 of those 4 seasons. With Brown and Williamson being better starting options, Woodyard could be just an expensive backup this season, making 2.75 million. He fits the Titans’ recent theme of overpaying for marginal veterans. With Brown healthy and Orakpo coming in, it’s a much improved linebacking corps.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The secondary was a problem last season as well for the Titans and one they tried to fix this off-season with the additions of cornerback Perrish Cox and safety Da’Norris Searcy on a 3-year, 15 million dollar deal and a 4-year, 23.75 million dollar deal respectively. Cox will start at cornerback, where Blidi Wreh-Wilson started last season and graded out 106^th among 110 eligible cornerbacks. Cox should be a significant upgrade, coming over from San Francisco. He was Pro Football Focus’ 35th ranked cornerback last season in a breakout year.

Cox’s career has had an interesting trajectory. He was a 5th round pick by the Broncos in 2010 and graded out above average on 787 snaps as a rookie, but was let go after one year after being arrested on multiple sexual assault charges. Cox was out of the league entirely in 2011 because of those charges, coupled with a history of off-the-field issues from his collegiate days at Oklahoma State, which dropped him in the draft in the first place. However, early in 2012, he was found not guilty and the 49ers gave him another chance. He didn’t play much in either 2012 or 2013, playing 168 snaps in 2012 and 81 snaps in 2013 (11 of which were actually with the Seahawks). However, injuries opened up a starting role for him back with the 49ers in 2014 and he didn’t look back, playing 965 snaps, making 14 starts, and grading above average. He’s obviously a risky signing given his history, but he clearly has talent, showing it in both of his stints as a starter.

Cox will push Blidi Wreh-Wilson to 3^rd on the depth cornerback at best. The 2013 3^rd round pick flashed on 93 snaps as a rookie in 2013, but proved incompetent in his first season as a starter in 2014, leading to the addition of Cox. There’s still time for him to turn it around and I like him better as a 3^rd cornerback, but I don’t have a ton of hope for his future. He’ll have to hold off Coty Sensabaugh for the #3 job. Sensabaugh, a 2012 4^th round pick, has been the #3 cornerback for the past 2 seasons, after struggling on 319 snaps as a rookie. He graded out above average on 509 snaps in 2013, but graded out 96^th among 108 eligible cornerbacks on 737 snaps in 2014. Whoever wins this battle, I expect them to struggle.

Searcy, meanwhile, will take over a starting spot at safety where the Titans had struggles last season. Bernard Pollard played decently through 5 games and 351 snaps there last season for the Titans, but then went down for the season, leaving George Wilson to start and he graded out 82^nd among 87 eligible safeties. Going into his age 34 season, Wilson remains unsigned as of this writing and will likely have to retire. Searcy, a 2011 4^th round pick, should be an upgrade.

Searcy played just 511 snaps in his first 2 seasons in 2011 and 2012, but he made 20 starts over the past 2 seasons as a hybrid safety/linebacker at 5-11 223. He’s never played more than 753 snaps in a season, but he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 18th ranked safety in 2014 (on 666 snaps) and only slightly below average in 2013, so I expected someone would give him starter’s money to be a traditional, every down starting safety for them. It’s a risky move for the Titans, but, like the Cox deal, I think it’s a solid value and, like the Cox deal, I think it will really help this secondary.

At the other two starting spots in the secondary, the Titans will be counting on bounce back years from cornerback Jason McCourty and safety Michael Griffin. McCourty graded out below average last season for the first time since he was a 6^th round rookie in 2009. He’s made 63 of 64 starts since 2011 and graded out 20^th, 8^th, 6^th, and 11^th respectively from 2010-2013. A lot of that has to do with his strong play against the run, but he still graded out 15^th, 32^nd, 23^rd, and 17^th respectively in those 4 seasons in coverage grade (all above average) and the fact that he was arguably the best cornerback in the NFL against the run in those 4 seasons is just a cherry on top. Only going into his age 28 season, I like his bounce back potential, which would really help this secondary.

Griffin’s bounce back potential is a little bit more questionable. The 2007 1^st round pick has had some great seasons, but he’s also been incredibly inconsistent throughout his career. Griffin has graded out 37^th, 9^th, 41^st, 10^th, and 14^th among safeties in 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2013 respectively, but also 87^th out of 88 eligible in 2009, 87^th out of 88 eligible in 2012, and 83^rd out of 87 eligible in 2014. It’s really tough to know what to expect from him next season, especially as he goes into his age 30 season. The Titans kept him on board at a 6.3 million dollar non-guaranteed salary in hopes that he’d bounce back, but that was mostly because they had so much cap space that they could afford to. If I had to guess, I’d say it’s more likely that he’s better this season than worse. He still might not be good, but he’s part of a secondary that should be much improved from last season on a defense that should be much improved from last season.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

I think the Titans had a pretty good off-season. They added a quarterback who I think will be the best quarterback in this draft class and a franchise quarterback long-term. He might not be great right away in the short-term, but he should be an upgrade over what they had last season and the Titans added talent to their defense to help in the short-term. I don’t see this team sneaking into the playoffs or anything, unless Mariota goes crazy as a rookie and elevates a poor offensive supporting cast that is only relying on bounce back years to improve, but they have a pretty easy schedule and should win a decent amount of games. They should also be healthier after having the 11^th most injuries in the NFL last season, in terms of adjusted games lost, including some to some of their better players (Zach Brown and Taylor Lewan come to mind).

The Titans over/under right now is 5.5 wins. Teams that have an over/under of 6 or fewer usually go over more often than not. This year, Tennessee is joined by Oakland, Jacksonville, and Tampa Bay in that group and I definitely think Tennessee has a better chance to go over than both Oakland and Jacksonville and maybe even Tampa Bay, who also adds a rookie quarterback. There’s money to be made here. At the very least, the Titans won’t be the pushover they were last season when they lost 10 games by more than a touchdown and will be much tougher for teams to beat. As with all teams, I’ll have official win/loss records for the Titans after I’ve done all team’s previews.

Prediction: 7-9 2nd in AFC South

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Indianapolis Colts 2015 NFL Season Preview

July 15, 2015 stevenlourie 2015 NFL Season Previews, Colts, Uncategorized

Quarterback

It might not show it in the win/loss column, as the Colts have gone 11-5 in each of Andrew Luck’s first three seasons in the NFL, but the Colts have gotten significantly better in each of Luck’s first three seasons in the NFL. In Luck’s rookie year, they went 9-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less and, while they’ve done well in close games in every season, they’ve gotten progressively less reliant on eeking out close victories in each season, going 5-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less in 2013 and 4-2 in 2014. This has been noticeable in the playoffs, as the Colts have gone from losing in the wild card round, to losing in the divisional round, to losing in the AFC Championship game, one win away from the Super Bowl, over the course of those 3 seasons, though there are other ways to tell that they’re improving as a team.

In 2014, much more so than the other two seasons, the Colts were an 11-5 team that deserved to be an 11-5 team. Far fewer of their victories were close games that could have gone either way. They finished the 2014 season 5^th in rate of moving the chains differential, as the offense ranked 10^th in rate of moving the chains, and their defense actually ranked 6^th in rate of moving the chains allowed. It’s important to remember that the Colts play in a terrible division that has allowed them to go 12-0 in divisional games (as opposed to 10-10 in non-divisional games) over the past 2 seasons. The division should be better this season, but not to the point where the Colts will be an underdog in any divisional game, either home or away, this season. The Colts should also be better too, after having the 3^rd most adjusted games lost to injury last season. Even though they’ve been somewhat propped up by a bad division, this still looks like one of the most talented teams in the AFC.

So how have the Colts improved over the years? Well, they’ve spent a lot of money in free agency in recent off-seasons, with this off-season being no exception. They haven’t always spent that money wisely, but sometimes they have and they’ve had a lot of money to play with because many of their good players are under rookie contracts. That’s going to change rapidly over the next two off-seasons and it’s going to be impossible to keep everyone, so the Colts are largely in win now mode this season, but they have at least a decent chance to do exactly that.

And, of course, the biggest reason the Colts have improved is Andrew Luck. He might not be as “magical” in close games as he was when he was a rookie, but it’s much more important to be good in the NFL and Luck certainly has gotten better every season, grading out 16^th among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus in 2012, 12^th in 2013, and 9^th in 2014, completing 61.7% of his passes for an average of 7.73 YPA, 40 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions last season. He set career highs in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and touchdowns with those numbers.

He’s not quite a top level elite quarterback, but he’s very close and, only going into his age 26 season, he could certainly keep getting better. He’s signed for about 19.5 million total over the next 2 seasons, but he’s expected to get a long-term extension sometime in the next 12 months or so, ahead of his 2016 contract year, and will probably set an NFL record for average salary. Right now, Aaron Rodgers’ 22 million dollar annual salary is the record and Luck reportedly could get 25 million. That’s going to make it hard for the Colts to keep talent around Luck, even with a rapidly increasing salary cap, but they won’t have much of a choice but to keep a guy who could be the best quarterback in the NFL in 2 or 3 years.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

One of the players the Colts brought in through free agency this off-season is former 49er running back Frank Gore, who was signed to a 3-year, 12 million dollar deal. He was brought in to fix a running game that averaged just 3.88 yards per carry last season, 25^th in the NFL. Their top-3 running backs last season in terms of carries were mega-bust Trent Richardson, veteran Ahmad Bradshaw, who broke his leg week 11 and missed the rest of the season, and the unproven Boom Herron. That being said, the Colts will probably live to regret giving Frank Gore a 3-year, 12 million dollar deal and guaranteeing him 6.5 million of the 7.5 million he’s scheduled to make over the next 2 seasons.

Gore’s rushing yards rank 20th all-time and he could be bound for Canton. However, he’s also going into his age 32 season with 2442 carries. Of the top-25 all-time leading rushers who have played in the last decade and a half, the average one has his last 1000 yard season in his age 30 season at 2602 career carries. He might not have looked it last year, when he rushed for 1106 yards and 4 touchdowns on 255 attempts (4.34 YPC), caught 11 passes for 111 yards and a touchdown, and graded only slightly below average, but he’s close to the end. This deal reminds me of when the Falcons signed an aging Steven Jackson two off-seasons ago, expecting him to be the missing piece to a Super Bowl team.

If Gore has a rapid decline or suffers an injury and another running back needs to step into a bigger role, the Colts don’t really have a good option. Ahmad Bradshaw wasn’t re-signed this off-season, going into his age 29 season, following an off-season marijuana arrest that got him suspended for the first week of the 2015 season, and the Colts next 4 running backs on the depth chart behind Gore right now are Herron, Vick Ballard, Zurlon Tipton, and Josh Robinson.

Herron is almost definitely the favorite for the #2 job right now. Even though he was a 2012 6^th round pick with 9 career carries going into last season, Herron ended up being the lead back for the Colts down the stretch and into the playoffs. He wasn’t terrible, but he graded out below average in the regular season and was horrible in the post-season. Between the regular season and the playoffs, he rushed for 521 yards and 3 touchdowns on 123 carries (4.24 YPC) and showed himself to be pretty good as a receiver, catching 41 passes for 301 yards. Those numbers aren’t bad, but they weren’t great either and he also fumbled 4 times, a really high rate for the number of carries he had and a serious problem. He’s a decent backup, but little else.

The rest of the bunch is even more uninspiring. Vick Ballard hasn’t played since week 1 of the 2013 season, thanks to a torn ACL that ended his 2013 season and a torn Achilles that ended his 2014 season before it even started. He’s reportedly a candidate to start this season on the physically unable to perform list and miss at least the first 6 games, if he can even make the roster. He hasn’t proven himself to be a very good runner even when healthy, rushing for 877 yards and 2 touchdowns on 224 carries, an average of 3.92 YPC, in his career, while adding just 18 catches for 147 yards and another touchdown through the air. The 2012 5^th round pick’s career is still very much in jeopardy, almost a whole year after the Achilles tear.

Tipton, meanwhile, was a 2014 undrafted free agent who rushed for 86 yards and 1 touchdown on 28 carries, an average of 3.07 yards per carry, with 9 catches for 90 yards and another touchdown through the air, between the regular season and post-season as a rookie. Josh Robinson, a 6^th round rookie, rounds out an uninspiring group of backup running backs behind a starting running back who is at the end of his line. The Colts could be better on the ground than they were last season, but they might not be and I don’t expect them to get their money’s worth out of free agent acquisition Frank Gore.

Grade: C+

Receiving Corps

Sticking with the theme of overpaying over 30 veterans, the Colts signed Andre Johnson to a 3-year, 21 million dollar deal as a free agent this off-season, after the Texans released him to save 8.5 million dollars. He’ll probably help the Colts more than Gore, but I thought he’d get something closer to what Anquan Boldin got from the 49ers last off-season, a 2-year, 12 million dollar deal with 6 million guaranteed.

Johnson is going into his age 34 season coming off the worst statistical season of his career, in terms of yards per game, since his rookie year. He caught 85 passes for 936 yards and 3 touchdowns on 141 targets (60.3%) and 487 routes run (1.92 yards per route run) and only graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 40^th ranked wide receiver. That’s not bad, but it’s worse than what we’ve come to expect from him. He’s currently #12 on the NFL’s all-time receiving yardage list and likely Hall-of-Fame bound someday, but even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. Johnson is a declining player who could soon become a rapidly declining player.

He could still be an asset to this team though, simply by being an upgrade over Reggie Wayne and Hakeem Nicks, who played 881 and 602 snaps respectively last season and graded out 106^th and 105^th respectively out of 110 eligible wide receivers. Neither was brought back as a free agent and the former remains unsigned and will likely retire at some point, ahead of his age 37 season. The Colts have already ruled out bringing him back. His last 1000 yard season was in 2012 in his age 34 season, just another reminder of how quickly a wide receiver can lose it.

The Colts also have a pair of young wide receivers, 2014 3^rd round pick Donte Moncrief and rookie 1^st rounder Phillip Dorsett. Moncrief flashed on 421 snaps as a rookie, stealing snaps from Wayne and Nicks down the stretch. He was seen as a breakout candidate prior to the addition of Johnson in free agency and Dorsett through the draft, but now will only play a situational role this season at most, at least to start the season. Dorsett will also only play a situational role at most and was likely drafted with the future in mind. Dorsett is 5-10 185, ran a 4.33 at the combine, and has a skill set similar to TY Hilton did when the Colts drafted him in the 3^rd round in 2012. Hilton is going into his contract year and is reportedly far apart with the Colts on a long-term deal. With a lot of talent and expensive players to keep under the cap long-term, the Colts likely see Hilton as expendable and Dorsett as his long-term replacement.

As for 2015, Hilton is locked in as the #1 receiver. Like his fellow draft classmate Andrew Luck, Hilton has improved in all 3 seasons he’s been in the league, leading to a 2014 season in which he caught 82 passes on 123 attempts (66.7%) for 1346 yards and 7 touchdowns on 572 routes run, an average of 2.35 yards per route run. He’s graded out 86^th, 34^th, and 10^th in 2012, 2013, and 2014 respectively and should have another strong season this year, only his age 26 season. It’s definitely helped him to have played with Andrew Luck, but he’s a great receiver in his own right and someone who will make a lot of money on his next deal. That deal just might not come from the Colts.

With so much wide receiver depth, the Colts will probably use a bunch of 3-wide receiver sets this season, at the expense of two-tight end sets, which they ran a lot of last season, with Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener. Allen’s the better of the two and has the better all-around game, which should earn him more playing time than Fleener. The 2012 3^rd round pick has graded out above average in all 3 seasons he’s been in the league, including 2^nd among tight ends as a rookie, thanks to great all-around play. Allen missed all but 1 game and 30 snaps with injury in 2013 and wasn’t as good in 2014 as he was as a rookie, but he still graded out 9^th among tight ends on 633 snaps in 13 games. He’s never had more than 45 catches in a season, but he’s still a solid tight end with decent hands and great blocking abilities at 6-3 255.

Fleener, meanwhile, has 103 catches over the past 2 seasons, grading out above average as a pass catcher in both seasons, but grading out below average as a run blocker in both seasons at 6-6 247. He’ll still have a role this season, but he won’t play the 812 snaps he did last season most likely, barring another injury to Allen. He’ll primarily play as a #2 tight end, coming in for the #3 receiver in two-tight end sets, helping the Colts effectively pass out of two-tight end sets. With their wide receivers going 4 deep, their tight ends going 2 deep, Andrew Luck under center, and limited talent at running back, expect the Colts to pass a ton this season, even when they have a lead, and probably even more than last season, when they had 661 pass attempts (1^st in the NFL) to 415 rushes (17^th in the NFL). Their passing game is simply, by far, their most effective way of moving the football.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

As I mentioned, the Colts had a lot of injuries last season, 3^rd most in the NFL in terms of adjusted games lost. That was the case in 2013 as well and arguably their most injury prone player (other than Vick Ballard) over that time period has been Donald Thomas. The Colts signed Thomas to a 4-year, 14 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago, which looked like a good idea at the time as Thomas graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 21st ranked guard in 2012 in 7 starts with the Patriots and looked like a budding starter.

However, Thomas has played just 72 snaps in 2 seasons with the Colts, missing 30 games with injury, including all of last season. He’s already going into his age 30 season and who knows what kind of playing shape he will be in after two separate thigh tears, but he’s graded out above average in every season he’s played a snap since being drafted in the 6^th round in 2008. He’s only made 21 starts in his career though and he’s not expected to be back until training camp at the earliest and, if he can’t nail down a starting job, the Colts could cut him to save 3.5 million in cash, 3.25 million of which will come off their cap immediately.

Thomas will be competing with Jack Mewhort and Joe Reitz for the starting job. The former is a 2014 2^nd round pick who graded out slightly above average as a rookie, making 13 starts at left guard and 2 starts at right tackle, where he spent the majority of his time in college at Ohio State. Reitz, meanwhile, is a veteran journeyman who went undrafted in 2008 and who is going into his age 30 season. He didn’t play an offensive snap until the 2011 season and he graded out below average in both 2011 and 2012 on 544 and 479 snaps, but he graded out above average in both 2013 and 2014 on 149 and 277 snaps respectively. The Colts gave him a 3-year, 8 million dollar deal this off-season so they clearly value him and his ability to play both guard and tackle.

One of Mewhort or Reitz could start the season at right tackle in 2015 if oft injured right tackle Gosder Cherilus can’t get healthy in time for the start of the season, after off-season knee surgery. Cherilus has had some good seasons since being drafted in the 1^st round in 2008 by the Lions, grading out above average in 2009, 2010, 2012, and 2013, including 12^th in 2012 and 26^th in 2013. There’s a reason the Colts gave him a 5-year, 35 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago.

However, he’s had major issues with his knees throughout his career, including microfracture surgery, and his recovery from this latest knee problem is taking a while. He’s also going into his age 31 season and coming off of a season in which he graded out 70^th among 84 eligible offensive tackles. The Colts couldn’t cut him this off-season as it would have cost them 1.8 million on the cap, but he’ll need a very good season to justify a 7 million dollar non-guaranteed salary for 2016, 4.1 million of which the Colts would save on the cap immediately.

At center, mediocre linemen Khaled Holmes and Jonotthan Holmes will battle it out for the starting job. AQ Shipley actually started last season at center for the Colts, making the first 4 starts of the season and grading out 3^rd among centers over that time period before being inexplicably benched for the rookie undrafted free agent Harrison, who made 10 starts and graded out 35^th among 41 eligible centers. Holmes finished out the season there, making the final 2 starts, and is reportedly seen as the favorite to start there this season. However, the 2013 4^th round pick has played just 193 snaps in 2 seasons in the league and likely wouldn’t be an upgrade. He struggled in those 2 starts last season. Shipley, their only competent center last year, was let go and could start in Arizona this season.

The other two spots, right guard and left tackle, seem pretty settled. At right guard, Todd Herremans should start, after signing a 1-year, 3.5 million dollar deal this off-season, coming over from Philadelphia. Herremans is an accomplished veteran who has made 124 starts for the Eagles over the past 10 years since they drafted him in the 4th round in 2005, but he missed 8 games with injury in 2014 (making it 16 games missed over the last 3 seasons) and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 57th ranked guard out of 78 eligible.

Herremans was Pro Football Focus’ 23rd ranked guard in 2013, so he could bounce back in 2015, but he’s also going into his age 33 season. Also, the only reason Herremans graded out so high overall in 2013 was because he was Pro Football Focus’ 2nd ranked guard in run blocking. He struggled mightily in pass protection, grading out 79th out of 81 eligible in that aspect. In fact, Herremans hasn’t graded out above average in pass protection since 2009. He’s still a capable run blocker, but pass protection is more important in today’s NFL and it’s an area that Herremans has major issues in, especially at this stage of his career. The Colts are hoping he can at least be an upgrade over Hugh Thornton and Lance Louis, who played 584 and 543 snaps respectively and graded out 48^th and 62^nd among 78 eligible guards respectively.

Meanwhile at left tackle, Anthony Costanzo is locked into the spot where he’s been since the Colts drafted him in the 1^st round in 2011, making 60 of 64 starts in 4 seasons in the league and grading out above average in each of the last 3 seasons. In 2012, 2013, and 2014 respectively, he ranked 36^th, 27^th, and 12^th among offensive tackles and should have a similar season in 2015. Assuming Cherilus misses some time with injury, I expect their offensive line to be (from left to right) Castonzo, Mewhort/Reitz, Holmes/Harrison, Herremans, and Reitz/Mewhort to start the season, with Reitz moving into a super-sub 6^th offensive lineman role when Cherilus returns. Reitz could still see significant action at either right tackle or right guard if Herremans or Cherilus get hurt again or struggle more. It’s a below average offensive line overall I think.

Grade: C+

Defensive Line

On the defensive line in the Colts 3-4 defense, Cory Redding and Ricky Jean-Francois led the way in snaps played with 757 and 647 respectively last season. Both graded out above average, even if only slightly, but both are gone, the former signing in Arizona as a free agent and the latter getting cut ahead of a 5.5 million dollar non-guaranteed salary and signing in Washington. The Colts brought Kendall Langford in as a free agent on a 4-year, 17.2 million dollar deal, coming over from St. Louis, to replace Redding.

Langford was cut by the Rams this off-season, but it wasn’t because he played badly last season. They cut him because his 6 million dollar salary was too much to pay for a 3rd defensive tackle. Langford graded out about average last season, but only saw 494 snaps as he was stuck behind recent 1st round picks Aaron Donald and Michael Brockers. The Colts get him at less than 6 million annually and he’s still a starting caliber player, only going into his age 29 season. I like Langford in a 3-4 more than a 4-3 anyway. He had some success in St. Louis’ 4-3, but graded out below average twice in three seasons. In a 3-4 to start his career in Miami, he graded out above average in 2 of 4 seasons, including 7th at his position in 2009 and then 7th again in 2010. He might not be an upgrade over what Redding was last season, but he’s a lot younger than Redding so he’s better long-term.

Opposite Langford, the Colts are hoping to get more out of Arthur Jones, who they signed to a 5-year, 33 million dollar deal last off-season. Jones was limited to 371 snaps in 9 games by an ankle injury last season and really struggled when on the field, grading out 40^th among 47 eligible 3-4 defensive ends, despite the limited playing time. Now healthy, he has some bounce back potential, but he’s also a one-year wonder. The 2010 5^th round pick has graded out above average just once in his career, the contract year of his rookie deal in 2013, which is why the Colts gave him such a large contract. He graded out 12^th among 3-4 defensive ends that season, but it’s very possible the Colts made a big financial mistake giving that much money to a one-year wonder. We’ll see if he can come close to replicating that season in 2015. He’ll start opposite Langford, with 3^rd round rookie Henry Anderson seeing a decent amount of action as a reserve.

Starting between them at nose tackle will be the 6-1 316 pound Josh Chapman, purely a two-down player. The 2012 5^th round pick didn’t play a snap as a rookie, but played 243 in 2013 and 385 in 2014. He graded out above average against the run in each of those 2 seasons, but below average overall because of his complete incompetence as a pass rusher. He’s good in his current role, but is a limited player. The Colts also have a pair of big defensive linemen, Montori Hughes and Zach Kerr, who will see limited action across the defensive line in base packages. Hughes, 6-4 335, has seen 272 nondescript snaps in 2 seasons in the league since going in the 5^th round in 2013, while Kerr, 6-2 335, graded out below average on 289 snaps as an undrafted rookie in 2014. Like on offense, they’re mediocre in the trenches defensively.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

Sticking with their theme of adding 30+ veterans, the Colts signed Trent Cole to a 2-year, 14 million dollar deal this off-season, after the Eagles cut him to avoid paying him a non-guaranteed 10.025 million dollar salary for 2015. However, unlike Johnson and Gore, Cole was still playing at a high level last season and has a good chance to continue at least solid play this season. Cole has still graded out above average in every season of Pro Football Focus’ 8-year existence, including 7th among 3-4 outside linebackers in 2013 and 19th in 2014. He’s going into his age 33 season, but he could still be the best edge rusher on a team that really needed help there.

Bjoern Werner (762 snaps) and Erik Walden (669 snaps) led the team in snaps at the 3-4 outside linebacker position last season and both struggled. Werner was a 1^st round pick by the Colts in 2013, but has largely been a bust thus far, grading out below average in each of his first 2 seasons in the NFL, culminating in him being a healthy scratch in the AFC Championship game last season. There’s still time for him to turn it around and he’s probably the favorite to start opposite Cole, but he’s unclear if he can do that. A better run stopper than pass rusher, he’s someone who could benefit from seeing only base package snaps, something the Colts have the outside linebacker depth to do.

Walden, meanwhile, is a 2008 6^th round pick who hasn’t graded out above average once in 7 seasons in the league. He hasn’t been as bad in Indianapolis as he was in his final 2 seasons in Green Bay in 2011 and 2012, when he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in both seasons, but he hasn’t been worth the undeserved 4-year, 16 million dollar deal the Colts gave him two off-seasons ago. Going into his age 30 season, he’s not going to get better going forward.

Like Werner, Walden also probably won’t have to play as many snaps this season as he did last season and could be purely a rotational reserve. There are three reasons for that and the first and most obvious one is the arrival of Cole. The second reason is that Jonathan Newsome, a 2014 5^th round pick, flashed on 397 snaps as a rookie and deserves a bigger role, especially on passing downs. He should siphon off a fair amount of pass rush snaps that previously went to Walden and Werner.

The third reason is that the Colts expect to get more out of Robert Mathis this season than they did last season. Of course, that’s not going to be hard, considering Mathis missed all of last season with a torn Achilles. What’s still unclear is how much they’re going to get out of him and how good he’s going to be. Mathis was Pro Football Focus’ 2^nd ranked 3-4 outside linebacker the last time he played in 2013 and he graded out above average in 6 of 7 seasons from 2007-2013, but he’s now going into his age 34 season, coming off of a serious injury and, as good as he was in 2013, he did grade out below average in 2012, so he had shown some signs of aging even prior to the injury.

His recovery from the injury reportedly hasn’t been going great, not a surprise considering his age, and he’s unlikely to be ready for training camp, which would put him in a race to play week 1 and make him a candidate to start the season on the physically unable to perform list and miss the first 6 games of the season. The addition of Cole suggests that they aren’t too confident in him. Even before the injury, he was never a very good player against the run, grading out below average against the run in 4 of 7 seasons from 2007-2013, so, when he returns, he should be limited to pass rush snaps in sub packages. If the Colts can get 10 games of above average pass rush from him in a situational role, they should consider that a win.

The Colts struggled at middle linebacker last season, as Jerrell Freeman and D’Qwell Jackson graded out 39^th and 46^th respectively among 60 eligible middle linebackers. The Colts signed Nate Irving to a 3-year, 7.25 million dollar deal this off-season and he should play at least a situational role at middle linebacker this season. A 2011 3^rd round pick of the Broncos, Irving never played more than 353 snaps in a season in Denver, but graded out above average overall in each of the last 2 seasons and above average against the run in each of the last 3 seasons.

In 2014, he graded out 22^nd among middle linebackers, including 12^th against the run, on 353 snaps, before going down for the season with a torn ACL after week 9. Through 9 weeks, he ranked 4^th against the run. His recovery is going well and he should be ready for week 1, 10 months removed from the injury. He should play at least a situational base package role against the run and, unless he struggles in his first year back from the torn ACL, he should be an asset for them in that role.

Irving’s snaps in base packages should come at the expense of Freeman, an undersized middle linebacker at 6-0 220 who graded out 2^nd among middle linebackers in coverage last season, but 59^th out of 60 eligible against the run. This isn’t anything new. In 3 seasons in the league since coming over from the CFL, he’s graded out above average in coverage twice, but he’s never graded out above average against the run. Going into his age 29 season, I expect more of the same from him this season, though in a role that better suits his skill set.

Jackson will remain an every down player, which could definitely be a problem again. Jackson was a solid player when he was younger, but he’s graded out below average in each of the last 3 seasons, including 35^th out of 55 eligible middle linebackers in his final season in Cleveland in 2013 and then 46^th out of 60 eligible middle linebackers in his first season in Indianapolis in 2014. Things probably won’t get better as he enters his age 32 season in 2015 and he’ll need a strong season to justify a 5.5 million dollar non-guaranteed salary for 2016. There’s depth in this linebacking corps and guys who can play roles, but they’re only an average linebacking unit at best.

Grade: B-

Secondary

While the front 7 struggled last season, the Colts still performed well overall defensively because of great play from their secondary (poor competition also helped). Cornerback Vontae Davis was their 2^nd most important player last season, behind Andrew Luck and ahead of TY Hilton. Davis was drafted in the first round by the Dolphins in 2009, but, when Joe Philbin’s coaching staff came in before the 2012 season, they felt he was out of shape, benched him, and put him on the trade block. Even though Davis had graded out above average in each of his first 3 seasons in the league (29^th, 13^th, and 39^th) and even though he was still very young (only going into his age 24 season in 2012), they shipped him to the Colts for a 2^nd and a 6^th round pick before the 2012 season.

It looked like the Dolphins had won the trade at first, as Davis graded out below average in his first season in Indianapolis and missed 6 games with injury, which seemed to give some truth to the accusations that he was out of shape. However, Davis has developed into one of the top few cornerbacks in the NFL over the past 2 seasons, grading out 4^th among cornerbacks in 2013 and 2^nd among cornerbacks in 2014. He joins Darrelle Revis as one of two cornerbacks to grade out in the top-4 in each of those 2 seasons.

The Colts signed him to a 4-year, 36 million dollar deal last off-season, risky considering his history of injuries (10 games missed from 2011-2012) and inconsistency, but now that deal looks like a steal after he backed up an incredible 2013 season by doing it again in 2014. He heads into his age 27 season having graded out above average in 5 of 6 seasons in the league and as one of the best defensive players in the game, living up to his first round talent and then some. Still in the prime of his career, I expect nothing less than another dominant season from him again in 2015.

Mike Adams also had a dominant season in for the Colts in the secondary last season, but his was much more surprising. Adams graded out 7^th among safeties in 2014 and made his first Pro Bowl, even though it looked like his career was over until the Colts signed him in June of last year. He wasn’t left unsigned because he played badly prior to last season, as he was a solid starter in 2011, 2012, and 2013, grading out above average in 2011 and 2012 and only slightly below average in 2013. He was left unsigned because of age, as he was going into his age 33 season. He was able to dominate in spite of that last season, but I think it’s highly unlikely that he’ll be able to repeat the best season of his career in his age 34 season in 2015. Still, there’s a good chance that he is an above average starter again and once again proves to be a good value. The Colts re-signed him to a very reasonable 2-year, 4.25 million dollar deal this off-season.

The Colts have another good value at the other safety spot, as they signed Dwight Lowery to a veteran’s minimum contract this off-season. Lowery has always been a solid starting safety when healthy. The Falcons signed Lowery cheap last off-season, but there was a reason he was available so cheap, even though he graded out above average in every season from 2008-2012, including 18th among safeties in 2012. Lowery missed 20 games in 2012-2013 combined and he hadn’t played all 16 games since his rookie year in 2008.

Lowery proved to be a smart signing by the Falcons, as he graded out above average again and, more importantly, made all 16 starts. His health is still a concern long-term, but, if healthy, he should once again prove to be a smart signing, this time by the Colts. I expected him to draw more interest in the open market after he managed to stay healthy last season, but that didn’t turn out to be the case. The Colts will be the beneficiary of that. The Colts also used a 4^th round pick on Clayton Geathers, who would see action at safety if Lowery gets hurt or Adams seriously declines. He’s also seen action in sub packages at middle linebacker this off-season and could see some action there this season in place of D’Qwell Jackson, who didn’t play well in coverage last season. The 6-2 218 pound Geathers has the size to play around the line of scrimmage in the right situation and could see a decent amount of action as a rookie (300-500 snaps) if everything goes right for him.

The rest of the secondary is a little bit more suspect as the Colts don’t have great cornerback depth behind Davis. Greg Toler figures to be their other starting cornerback again this season, but he graded out 99^th among 108 eligible cornerbacks last season. The 2009 4^th round pick has never played all 16 games in a season, has missed 34 games with injury in 6 seasons in the league, and has graded out below average in each of the last 2 seasons, with his worst season coming last season. I don’t think he’ll get better, going into his age 30 season in 2015.

Darius Butler, meanwhile, will be the 3rd cornerback again. Butler was a 2nd round bust of the Patriots in 2009 and bounced around from the Patriots to the Panthers to the Colts by 2012. Butler graded out below average in 2 of his first 3 seasons in the league, but had the best season of his career in 2012 with the Colts, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 31st ranked cornerback on 380 snaps, earning a 2-year deal worth 4 million that off-season. Butler remained inconsistent though, grading out below average in each of the last 2 seasons. Butler has never played more than 704 snaps in a season, has averaged 501 snaps a season, and has graded out below average in 4 of 6 seasons in the NFL. The Colts re-signed him to a 2-year, 5 million dollar deal this off-season, but he’s little more than a depth cornerback.

They also brought in D’Joun Smith in the 3^rd round of the draft. He could push either Toler or Butler for playing time, but probably won’t see a significant role until 2016. As a rookie, I expect him to be the 4^th cornerback. The Colts’ secondary is definitely the best part of this defense once again. It’s hard to figure out how the Colts’ defense had a strong performance overall last season from looking at the talent, except for they played such a bad schedule, and their defense doesn’t seem to be too much more talented this season. Their competition should be somewhat stronger this season, which will hurt them, and their defense should be closer to the middle of the pack this season.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

It might not seem like it, but the Colts are in win now mode. With Luck’s impending record extension, impending free agency for guys like TY Hilton, Coby Fleener, Dwayne Allen, Anthony Castonzo, among others, 32 million in cap space for 2016 currently (at a projected cap of 150 million), and 10 key players going into their age 30+ season (Frank Gore, Andre Johnson, Todd Herremans, Gosder Cherilus, Joe Reitz, Trent Cole, Robert Mathis, D’Qwell Jackson, Mike Adams, Greg Toler), this season is probably going to be the best chance the Colts have at a Super Bowl victory for a few seasons.

They’re going to be very good in certain areas. They have a great quarterback and a talented receiving corps and secondary. Trent Cole is better than any pass rusher they had last season and they should have better health than they had last season. As a result, they should be good at moving the chains through the air and stopping the pass. However, they still will have major issues running the ball, blocking on the offensive line, and stopping the run.

They made it to the AFC Championship game last year, but that was because they lucked out and caught the Broncos at the right time, before getting crushed in the AFC Championship 45-7 in New England. New England, Baltimore, and Denver were all better than they were last season in terms of rate of moving the chains differential and I think that should continue this season, especially with the Colts’ division gaining on them at least somewhat. They’re on my Super Bowl short list, but I think they ultimately come up short. As with all teams, I’ll have official win/loss records for the Colts after I’ve done all team’s previews.

Final Update (9/9/15): I have the Colts getting the AFC’s #1 seed, but I actually think they’re like the 4th or 5th best team in the AFC (behind the likes of Baltimore, Miami, Denver, and maybe New England). They just have such an easy schedule. They could definitely be exposed in the playoffs again though, especially with Arthur Jones out for the season. They were counting on him to shore up this front 7 and this run defense.

Prediction: 12-4 1st in AFC South

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Detroit Lions 2015 NFL Season Preview

July 13, 2015 stevenlourie 2015 NFL Season Previews, Lions, Uncategorized

Quarterback

The Lions underachieved in terms of wins and losses in both 2012 and 2013, going 11-21. However, that was largely as a result of a 6-14 record in games decided by a touchdown or less, a -25 turnover margin, and a -10 return touchdown margin. Those things tend to be inconsistent from year-to-year and, in 2014, everything swung the other way with the Lions. They went 6-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less, had a +7 turnover margin, and had a +1 return touchdown margin. As a result, they went 11-5, but ranked 15^th in rate of moving the chains differential, after going 7-9 and ranking 6^th in rate of moving the chains differential in 2013. As weird as this sounds, the Lions were worse in 2014 than 2013, despite their record. There’s a reason why their over/under win total is only 8.5 at sports betting site sportsbook.ag. Many think they’re due for a regression.

One of the big reasons why they weren’t as good in 2014 as they were in 2013 was quarterback Matt Stafford. Stafford, who graded out 7^th in 2011, 13^th in 2012, and 7^th in 2013, graded out below average in 2014, coming in 22^nd out of 39 eligible, all rankings from Pro Football Focus. The 1^st overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft has shaken off early career injury issues and made all 64 starts over the past 4 seasons and has generally played pretty well, so there’s bounce back potential here. That would go a long way in fixing an offense that was way more the problem than the solution in 2015, finishing 19^th in rate of moving the chains. In 2013, they were 10^th, which I think is a reasonable goal for this season.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

An offensive line that struggled in 2014, after playing great in 2013, was also part of the problem. In 2013, they ranked 6^th in team pass blocking grade and 16^th in team run blocking grade on Pro Football Focus. In 2014, those rankings fell to 16^th and 18^th respectively. The Lions underwent some changes upfront on the offensive line this off-season, letting left guard Rob Sims and center Dominic Raiola go, going into their age 32 and age 37 seasons respectively. Both graded out below average last season, Sims grading out slightly below average and Raiola grading out 37^th among 41 eligible centers.

Sims will be replaced by first round rookie Laken Tomlinson, who could be a steal of the first round, after dominating at Duke with, largely with a combination of intelligence and technique. Meanwhile, Travis Swanson will take over for Raiola. He struggled at guard as a 3^rd round rookie in 2014 on 277 snaps, with no one playing fewer snaps and grading out worse at the position, but he could be better back at his natural position of center. He played decently there in a week 17 start, in place of a suspended Raiola, but he’s obviously hard to trust.

The Lions did not let right tackle LaAdrian Waddle go this off-season or anything, but his status is still in doubt for the start of the season, as he recovers from a week 15 ACL tear. Waddle played well as an undrafted rookie in 2013, making 8 starts down the stretch and grading out 30^th among offensive tackles on 553 snaps, but had a little bit of a sophomore slump. Waddle went into the season as the starter this time, but missed 6 games with injuries, including, eventually, that torn ACL. He still graded out above average on 561 snaps, but wasn’t as good as he was in 2013. The Lions are hoping he can be back for week 1, just 9 months after the injury, and that he can play all 16 games and play well, but that might not happen. Cornelius Lucas would be his replacement if needed, but he struggled on 455 snaps in Waddle’s absence last season as an undrafted rookie.

Another player who had a relative sophomore slump was 2013 3^rd round pick Larry Warford. Warford had a fantastic rookie year in 2013, grading out 4^th among guards and not missing a single snap. However, in 2014, Warford missed 3 games with injury and “only” graded out 16^th among guards. That certainly wasn’t bad, but the Lions will be hoping for a bounce back year from a player who is a young building block. He’s much more likely to bounce back than Waddle, simply because he’s not recovering from a torn ACL.

On this young offensive line, Riley Reiff is actually the most experienced one and he’s only going into his 4^th season in the league. The 2012 1^st round pick flashed on 336 snaps as a backup during his rookie season, but has made 31 out 32 starts over the past 2 seasons. He graded out slightly below average in 2013, but ranked 23^rd among offensive tackles in 2014. He’s an ascending player on a young offensive line that has a lot of upside, but that probably won’t reach it for at least a year or two. They’ll probably be better upfront than they were last season though.

Grade: B

Running Backs

The Lions also struggled to run the ball in 2014, averaging 3.59 yards per carry as a team, 29^th in the NFL. They weren’t a great running team in 2013, when they averaged 4.03 yards per carry, but they were noticeably worse in 2014. You can’t really blame the offensive line here, as they weren’t horrible at run blocking last season, nor were they great at run blocking in 2013. In 2013, Reggie Bush was the lead back, rushing for 1006 yards and 4 touchdowns on 223 carries, an average of 4.51 YPC, while backup Joique Bell rushed for 650 yards and 8 touchdowns on 166 carries, an average of 3.92 YPC.

With Bush aging, the Lions made Bell the starter in 2014. His YPC didn’t look good in 2013, but he graded out 10^th among running backs because of his passing down abilities and he also picked up 43 first downs on those 166 carries, a good ratio. 2014 was a different story for him. He rushed for 860 yards and 7 touchdowns on 223 carries, an average of 3.85 YPC, similar to 2013, but he only picked up 43 first downs on 223 carries. He graded out above average as a pass catcher, but ended up grading out below average overall because he didn’t run well. Though he only missed 1 game with injury, a variety of nagging injuries were blamed as the culprit. Bush, meanwhile, was limited to 11 games by injury and rushed for 297 yards and 2 touchdowns on 76 carries, an average of 3.91 YPC, though he did add 40 catches, 3^rd on the team.

Bush signed in San Francisco this off-season, while Bell heads into his age 29 season with a career 4.08 YPC average. He’s been a better runner than that suggests for the most part and he does add value on passing downs, but he’ll have to compete with 2^nd round rookie Ameer Abdullah to keep his job. Abdullah has drawn comparisons to Reggie Bush for his speed and pass catching abilities. He should start the season as a complement to Bell, working in rotation, and, like in 2013 when Bush and Bell caught a combined 107 passes, there should be plenty of opportunity for both to get involved in the passing game. Abdullah will eventually overtake Bell as the starter though. It’s just a question of if he’ll do that before this season starts, during the season, or in 2016 and beyond. They’re hoping that the combination of Bell and Abdullah will get them out of the cellar in YPC, where they were last season.

Grade: C+

Receiving Corps

The Lions didn’t have a significant amount of injuries on either side of the ball last season, finishing in the middle of the pack in adjusted games lost, both offensively and defensively. However, they did have some significant injuries to very important players and that definitely had a noticeable effect on this team. Wide receiver Calvin Johnson missed 3 games and was a decoy in another 2 (catching just 3 passes for 19 yards) because of a severely sprained ankle. In the 11 games he played healthy, the Lions moved the chains at a 72.59% rate, as opposed to 68.92% in the other 5 games.

I think we can attribute most of that to Megatron. When healthy, he still put up great numbers, catching 68 passes for 1056 yards and 8 touchdowns in 11 games, which extrapolates to 99 catches for 1536 yards and 12 touchdowns over 16 games. Those are absurd numbers, but Johnson averaged 95 catches for 1564 yards and 11 touchdowns per season from 2010-2013, so those numbers are just another day at the office for him. He “only” averaged 2.29 yards per route run in 2014, but, if you take out the 2 weeks he played hurt, that average becomes 2.46. From 2010-2013, he averaged 2.37 yards per route run, best in the NFL over that time period.

Despite playing two games at significantly less than 100% last season, Johnson still finished the season as Pro Football Focus’ 7^th ranked wide receiver on 705 snaps, with no one playing fewer snaps and grading out better at the position. If you throw out the weeks he was hurt, he graded out 3^rd among wide receivers. Johnson graded out in the top-5 among wide receivers in every season from 2010-2013, something no one else can say, and now he’s graded out in the top-7 in each of the last 5 seasons, again something no one else can say. There are some people who think that, with Johnson going into his age 30 season and coming off of an injury plagued season, that we’re starting to see the beginning of a decline with him. That may be true and guys like Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas, and even Dez Bryant may be better than him, but he’s still one of the best players in the NFL and having him healthy all season will be a big boost to this team.

The one thing that was better for the Lions offensively in 2014 was the addition of Golden Tate, who signed a 5-year, 31 million dollar deal last off-season that looks like an absolute bargain right now. Tate graded out 16^th among wide receivers in pass catching grade and caught 99 passes on 136 targets (72.8%) for 1331 yards and 4 touchdowns on 626 routes run, an average of 2.13 yards per route run. He was especially productive when Johnson was out, as Tate routinely beat double coverage to give Stafford at least one option to throw to with Megatron injured. He caught 39 passes for 599 yards and 3 touchdowns in those 5 games. He wasn’t bad in the other 11 games though, catching 60 passes for 732 yards and 1 touchdown, 87 catches for 1065 yards and 1 touchdown over 16 games.

That came as a surprise to a lot of people, as he never had even a 1000+ yard season in his career prior to 2014, but that was because his numbers were kept down by a run heavy offense in Seattle. He averaged 1.80 yards per route run in 2012 and 2.01 yards per route run in 2013, so his 2.13 yards per route run average in 2013 was barely a career high. He also graded out 16^th in pass catching grade on Pro Football Focus in 2012 and 16^th in 2013. He didn’t suddenly become better last season and he’s not a one-year wonder. He’s just finally in a good offense for him. His numbers could take a hit this season with Johnson healthy and stealing targets, but he still produced at a high level with Johnson out last season. He’ll see plenty of single coverage opposite Johnson and should finish in the 1000-1200 yard range. Johnson and Tate are arguably the best wide receiver duo in the NFL.

The problem is the Lions really didn’t have a good 3^rd option in the passing game last season, leaving them really top heavy and very vulnerable if an injury like Johnson’s hit. There’s a reason Bush was 3^rd on the team with 40 catches, despite only playing 11 games and despite being a backup running back. Jeremy Ross was their #3 wide receiver last season and actually played the 2^nd most snaps among Lion wide receivers last season, because of Johnson’s injury.

Ross graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 96^th ranked wide receiver out of 110 eligible on 723 snaps, 107^th in pure pass catching grade. The 2011 undrafted free agent played just 190 snaps in his career prior to last season and has never graded out above average. He probably won’t have to play as many snaps this season, as long as Tate and Johnson stay healthy, but he’s a bad insurance option. He’ll have to hold off Corey Fuller, a 2013 6^th round pick who graded out below average on 405 snaps last season in his first career action, and TJ Jones, a 2014 6^th round pick who didn’t play a snap as a rookie, for the job. The 3^rd receiver spot remains a serious weakness for the Lions.

By far the Lions’ best option to step up and be a reliable 3^rd option in the passing game for them (aside from running backs Bell and Abdullah) is tight end Eric Ebron. Ebron was the 10^th overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft, but struggled mightily as a rookie, catching just 25 passes for 248 yards and a touchdown and grading out 45^th out of 67 eligible tight ends on 452 snaps. However, the Lions knew he’d be raw when they drafted him and he still has great upside. A young rookie, Ebron is only going into his age 22 season and ran a 4.60 40 at 6-4 250 at the combine. He should take over the starting tight end job from incumbent veteran Brandon Pettigrew and play at least 600-700 snaps this season. The Lions will be happy with 50 catches from him in 2015.

Pettigrew, meanwhile, was horrible last season, in the first year of an ill-advised 4-year, 16 million dollar contract that the Lions re-signed him to last off-season. He graded out 57^th out of 67 eligible tight ends on 598 snaps last season and caught just 10 passes for 70 yards, giving him a position worst 0.34 yards per route run. He’s a solid blocker at 6-5 263, but didn’t even play that well in that aspect last season. The 2009 1^st round pick has been a bust through 6 seasons, grading out below average as a pass catcher in all 6 seasons and grading out below average overall in each of the last 4 seasons. Already going into his age 30 season, Pettigrew will play a complementary, situational role this season. The only reason he’s on the roster still is because his 2.8 million dollar salary is fully guaranteed. It’s a talented receiving corps, but still not a very deep one.

Grade: B+

Defensive Line

While the Lions’ offense should be better this season, their defense could be a lot worse, after finishing 9^th in rate of moving the chains allowed last season. That’s because they had a ton of losses on the defensive line. Ndamukong Suh, Nick Fairley, and CJ Mosley were their top-3 defensive tackles last season and all 3 of them left as a free agent. Also gone is defensive end George Johnson, who played 502 snaps in a situational role last season. They were unable to really do much to replace them.

Suh will be the biggest loss as he was Pro Football Focus 3^rd ranked defensive tackle last season and one of two defensive tackles (Gerald McCoy) to grade out in the top-4 among defensive tackles in each of the last 3 seasons. He signed a 6-year, 114 million dollar deal with the Dolphins, the richest contract ever given to a defensive player. The losses of Fairley, Mosley, and Johnson will hurt though too. Fairley and Mosley graded out 18^th and 26^th respectively among defensive tackles on 297 and 503 snaps respectively, while George Johnson graded 24^th among 4-3 defensive ends (including 15^th in pure pass rush grade) on 502 snaps.

The Lions brought in Haloti Ngata and Tyrunn Walker at defensive tackle. They’re not bad players, but they’re a clear downgrade. Ngata comes over in a trade from Baltimore for a 4th and 5th round pick and will make 8.5 million dollars in the final year of his contract in 2015. He’s going into his age 31 season, but he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2014 and he’s graded out as a top-18 player at his position in every season since Pro Football Focus’ inception in 2007. He’s played in both 3-man and 4-man fronts in his career and both stops the run and rushes the passer well, even at 6-4 340, so he’ll fit in well in Detroit. His age is a concern, as he goes into his age 31 season, but he should have another strong season.

Walker isn’t nearly as established as Ngata, getting non-tendered by the Saints this off-season as a restricted free agent, rather than being paid 1.54 million, but he’s flashed in limited action thus far in his career and could be a steal for the Lions on a 1-year, 1.75 million dollar deal. The 2012 undrafted free agent didn’t play a snap as a rookie, but graded out above average on 119 snaps in 2013 and then 308 snaps last year, grading out 21^st among defensive tackles last season, despite the limited action.

The 6-3 294 pounder played both defensive end and defensive tackle in New Orleans and will be a pure 3-technique defensive tackle in Detroit. It’s unfair to assume that he’ll definitely have a breakout season in his first season as a starter, because he’s so unproven, but he has potential and he could be a big time steal. The Saints could be kicking themselves for letting him go. Also in the mix for snaps at defensive tackle are 4^th round rookie Gabe Wright, 2014 5^th round pick Caraun Reid, who struggled on 112 snaps as a rookie last season, and starting defensive end Jason Jones, who has the size to play inside on passing downs.

Jones and fellow starting defensive end Ezekiel Ansah remain. Ansah was the 5^th overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft and has made 28 starts in 2 seasons in the league. He graded out slightly below average as a rookie, but broke out in his 2^nd season in the league in 2014, finishing 5^th among 4-3 defensive ends. The Lions are obviously hoping that he can, not only continue that strong play, but become even better in his 3^rd season in the league in 2015. With so many losses along the defensive line, he becomes even more important to this team.

Jones, however, is not nearly as good. He was signed to a 3-year, 9.5 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago by the Lions, but he was limited to 87 snaps in 2013 by a torn patellar tendon and then graded out 47th out of 59 eligible this season as a starter. He played the run pretty well, but didn’t offer anything as a pass rusher. The Lions could have cut him to save 3.15 million in cash and cap space this off-season, but opted to bring him back, largely because they couldn’t afford to lose more experience on the defensive line. He’s had more career success at defensive tackle than defensive end so the Lions could use him more inside more on passing downs this season, with an opportunity open. In his career as a defensive tackle, the 6-3 274 pounder has graded out above average on limited snaps inside in both 2009 and 2012 and also graded out 6th among defensive tackles on Pro Football Focus in his only season as a starter at defensive tackle in 2010.

As a defensive end, he hasn’t been nearly as good, including 2011 season in which he graded out 62^nd among 67 eligible and last year’s poor play. Regardless of whether or not he moves inside in sub packages, he won’t be seeing many sub packages, if any, at defensive end, so the Lions will need someone to step up into George Johnson’s old spot. The candidates aren’t great. They include Devin Taylor, a 2013 4^th round pick who has struggled on 535 snaps in 2 seasons in the league, and Larry Webster, a 2014 4^th round pick who didn’t play a single snap as a rookie.

Kyle Van Noy, a 2014 2^nd round pick, is also in the mix. The 6-3 252 pounder was supposed to be a starting outside linebacker/defensive end last season, playing the Von Miller role, outside linebacker in base packages and defensive end in sub packages. However, he was limited to 51 snaps in 8 games by injuries. Even when he was healthy, he didn’t play much because he hadn’t gotten the system down (thanks to a lot of missed practice time with injury) and there were other guys ahead of him for snaps that were playing well. This season, with guys gone, he could see snaps on passing downs at defensive end. It’s certainly not the same defensive line as it’s been in recent years, but there is still talent here, though the depth is weak.

Grade: B

Linebackers

On offense, the major injury was to Calvin Johnson. On defense, it was to talented middle linebacker Stephen Tulloch, who looked on his way to another strong season before tearing his ACL week 3, which ended his season after 130 snaps. Tulloch graded out 2^nd among middle linebackers in 2013, 6^th among middle linebackers in 2011, and has graded out above average in 7 of 8 seasons in Pro Football Focus’ history. He could bounce back, but he’s going into his age 30 season, coming off of a serious injury, and he’s had problems with his knee before (in 2012, the only season he graded out below average, it was because he played through a serious knee problem). Given that, him bouncing back is not such a sure thing, but it will be good to have him back.

Tahir Whitehead played middle linebacker in his absence and played pretty well, struggling in coverage, but doing a good enough job against the run to grade out above average overall. He was Pro Football Focus’ 13^th ranked middle linebacker against the run. With Tulloch gone, Whitehead will move to his natural position of outside linebacker and compete for the pure base package outside linebacker role with Van Noy, which better fits his skill set, as it’ll allow him to focus on the run and not have to drop in coverage as often. Even though he’s unproven, going undrafted in 2012 and never playing a single defensive snap before last season, he should be considered the heavy favorite for that role.

At the other outside linebacker spot, the every down spot, DeAndre Levy remains and might be the Lions’ best defensive player now, with Suh gone and Tulloch coming off of an injury. Levy has been a starter since the Lions drafted him in the 3^rd round in 2009, making 82 starts in 6 seasons in the league, but he graded out below average in each of his first 4 seasons. The Lions re-signed him two off-seasons ago anyway, bringing him back on a 3-year, 9.75 million dollar deal, and that’s been an absolute steal as Levy has broken to be a late bloomer.

He’s graded out 9^th and 3^rd among 4-3 outside linebackers in the last 2 seasons respectively and is one of the best in the game at his position. I don’t expect anything else from him in 2015, still only his age 28 season. Levy is going into his contract year and the Lions would obviously like to lock him up ahead of that. Whether he gets paid now or next off-season on the open market, you can bet someone will pay a lot more money for his services than the Lions did two off-seasons ago. He and Tulloch make a great pair of every down linebackers, while Whitehead fits well in the two down role, meaning this is one of the most complete set of 4-3 linebackers in the NFL.

Grade: A

Secondary

While all of the Lions’ losses on the defensive line will hurt them, the defensive line wasn’t the only area where the Lions had success defensively last season, as evidenced by their strong linebacking corps. They also had a strong secondary last season, as both starters at both cornerback and safety graded out above average. We’ll see if they can do that again this season as they have a pair of aging veterans in the secondary. Safety James Ihedigbo heads into his age 32 season, while cornerback Rashean Mathis heads into his age 35 season.

Mathis is in the more precarious position age wise. Rashean Mathis looked done 2 years ago, after the 2012 season, as he graded out below average in 2012, missed 11 games with injury in 2011 and 2012 combined, and was going into his age 33 season. He didn’t get signed until mid-August in 2013, but he’s turned back the clock in Detroit over the past 2 seasons, making 29 starts and grading out 26^th among cornerbacks in 2013 and 12th in 2014. We’ll see how long that lasts, but he’s a nice stopgap starter and is once again a bargain on a 2-year, 3.5 million dollar deal the Lions gave him this off-season.

The problem is the Lions don’t really have any good depth behind him. It’s unclear who the 3^rd cornerback will be, as youngsters Nevin Lawson and Alex Carter, along with journeymen veterans Josh Wilson and Chris Owens will compete for that job. Lawson is a 2014 4th round pick who struggled on 63 snaps as a rookie, before dislocating his ankle, while Carter is a 3rd round rookie. Owens was Pro Football Focus’ 87th ranked cornerback out of 108 eligible last season in Kansas City on 500 snaps, though he has been better in the past, grading out above average in both 2012 and 2013. He’s graded out above average in 3 of 6 seasons since he was drafted in the 3rd round in 2009 (2010 was the other season), though he’s maxed out at 545 snaps. He’s a decent depth cornerback at best.

Wilson, meanwhile, comes over from Atlanta. It’s hard to believe that Josh Wilson was Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked cornerback in 2010. Wilson has never done anything like that other than that season, but he did grade out above average in each of the first 6 seasons of his career, from 2007-2012. However, he’s graded out below average in each of the last 2 seasons and is arguably coming off of the worst season of his career in 2014, grading out 75th among 108 eligible cornerbacks on 458 snaps. That’s not a good trend, as he goes into his age 30 season. Like Owens, he’s a decent depth cornerback at best. It’s not a horrible quartet of cornerbacks, but there isn’t a clear good choice for the 3rd cornerback job (Nevin Lawson is reportedly the favorite) and some of these guys won’t even make the roster.

While Mathis is heading nearing the end of his career, fellow starting cornerback Darius Slay is just going into his prime and coming off of a strong season. The 2013 2^nd round pick really struggled on 353 snaps as a rookie, but had a breakout year in 2014, making all 16 starts and grading out 19^th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. Only going into his age 24 season, the Lions are hoping that Slay can continue his development, become a true #1 cornerback, and one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL. He certainly has the potential and, even if that doesn’t happen this season, he’s still the Lions’ best cornerback and a real asset to this team.

Ihedigbo is also locked into a starting job, despite his age. A late bloomer, Ihedigbo only graded out above average once from 2007-2012, after going undrafted in 2007, and never made more than 12 starts in a season during that time period. However, he’s made 29 of 32 starts over the past 2 seasons, grading out 15^th among safeties in 2013 in Baltimore and 14^th among safeties in 2014 in Detroit, who signed him to a 2-year, 3.15 million dollar deal last off-season. Unhappy with his contract (owed just 1.6 million in 2015), Ihedigbo skipped some voluntary workouts this off-season, sensing that, given his age, this was the best chance he was going to get to cash in. He came gave up on that pretty quickly though and will be on the field this season. If he can continue his strong play, he could get a decent amount of money on a short-term deal next off-season, but that’s not necessarily going to happen, given his history and his age.

At the other safety spot is Glover Quin, who is probably their best defensive back. Quin, a 2009 4^th round pick, has graded out above average in each of the last 5 seasons, 1 at cornerback (2010), and the last 4 at safety. He’s been especially good since signing a 5-year, 23.5 million dollar deal with the Lions two off-seasons ago, grading out 10^th and 3^rd respectively among safeties in those 2 seasons and making all 32 starts. He hasn’t missed a game since his rookie year. He’s a one year wonder in terms of being the type of dominant safety he was last season, but he’s still one of the best players on a defense that won’t be as good as it was last season thanks to off-season losses, but that will still be a solid unit.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

In 2012 and 2013, the Lions were significantly better than their record. In 2014, they were significantly worse than their record and worse than they were in 2013, when they won 4 fewer games. This season could be a case of the team playing better, but winning fewer games. The offense definitely has bounce back potential (thanks to Matt Stafford’s bounce back potential and a presumably healthy Calvin Johnson) and could be closer to the top-10 offense they were in 2013.

However, the defense sustained a lot of losses on the defensive line and probably won’t be as good as they were in 2014, when they ranked 9th in rate of moving the chains allowed. They’ll probably be better than 15th in rate of moving the chains differential, where they were last season, but that might not translate to another playoff appearance. They’re one of the teams that will be in the mix for a wild card spot, but they’re squarely behind Green Bay in the division. As with all teams, I’ll have official win/loss records for the Lions after I’ve done all team’s previews.

Prediction: 9-7 2nd in NFC North

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Minnesota Vikings 2015 NFL Season Preview

July 11, 2015 stevenlourie 2015 NFL Season Previews, Uncategorized, Vikings

Quarterback

The Vikings seem to have struck gold with the 32^nd overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft. After using the 9^th overall pick on Anthony Barr (also a good pickup), the Vikings looked like they would head into day 2 with only Christian Ponder and Matt Cassel at quarterback. Instead, they moved up from the 2^nd round to grab quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, who was sliding down the board, but likely wouldn’t have been available at the Vikings’ original 2^nd round pick. Bridgewater had a fantastic college career and a lot of great tape, but concerns about his size, deep accuracy, and his poor Pro Day knocked him down boards.

The Vikings’ gain is the rest of the league’s loss. The Jaguars picked Blake Bortles 3^rd overall over Bridgewater and the Browns picked Johnny Manziel 22^nd over Bridgewater, despite spending 100K on a study that told them that Bridgewater would be the best quarterback in the draft class (because Browns). Both of those quarterbacks struggled mightily as rookies and the latter’s career could be over before it starts if he doesn’t get his act together on and off the field. On top of that, there are several other teams that had a chance to draft Bridgewater in the first round (or trade back up into the first round) that probably would prefer Bridgewater to their current quarterback, including the likes of Cincinnati, Arizona, the Jets, Houston, Oakland, Buffalo, St. Louis, Philadelphia etc.

As a rookie, Bridgewater completed 64.4% of his passes for an average of 7.26 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions, rushed for 209 yards and a touchdown on 47 carries (4.45 YPC), graded out above average on Pro Football Focus, and ranked 15^th among eligible quarterbacks. It’s important not to get too ahead of ourselves with Bridgewater, as he has a long way to go to become a proven franchise quarterback, but the future looks bright for the quarterback who is only going into his age 23 season. He certainly seems to have the brightest future of any quarterback in last year’s draft class and he definitely was the best of any rookie quarterback in the NFL last season.

The Vikings only ranked 24^th in rate of moving the chains last season, but they were significantly better in the 12 games that Bridgewater started, moving the chains at a 70.52% rate, as opposed to 66.36% in their other 4 games. They were also significantly better in their final 6 games of the season, moving the chains at a 72.29% rate. Over those 6 games, Bridgewater completed 68.9% of his passes for an average of 8.14 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, while grading out 2^nd among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus over that time period. It really seemed like something clicked for the rookie. You can’t necessarily extrapolate those 6 games to a whole career or even to the 2015 season, but I think there’s a very good chance that Bridgewater is better in his 2^nd year in the league than he was in his first.

Grade: B

Running Backs

The one thing that Teddy Bridgewater will have this season that he didn’t last season is future Hall of Fame running back Adrian Peterson, who missed 15 games last season with team suspension, after getting arrested for child abuse after week 1. In his absence, Matt Asiata led the team in carries with 164, but only turned them into 570 yards (though 9 touchdowns), an average of 3.48 yards per carry. He graded out 56^th among 57 eligible running backs on Pro Football Focus as a result.

Jerick McKinnon, a 3^rd round rookie, was better, rushing for 538 yards on 113 carries, an average of 4.76 yards per carry. He graded out above average as a runner, but below average overall because of his struggles on passing downs. His struggles on passing downs caused him to drop to the 3^rd round in the first place, but he’s a good runner. His strong YPC average last season was part of the reason that the Vikings averaged 4.36 yards per carry on the season overall (11^th in the NFL), despite Asiata’s struggles. On top of that, they had some fluky long runs, as the likes of Cordarrelle Patterson, Jarius Wright, Andrew Sendejo, and Jerome Felton all had 20+ yard runs. That’s two wide receivers, a fullback, and a safety.

Peterson will be a big boost to this offense, but you shouldn’t expect him to be the same back who rushed for 2000+ yards in 2012. As good as he’s been throughout his 8-year career, he’s only rushed for 1400+ yards twice and never in back-to-back seasons. In 2013, following that 2000+ yard year, he rushed for 1266 yards and 10 touchdowns on 279 carries, an average of 4.54 yards per carry, good, but not incredible. He barely played last season, rushing for 75 yards on 21 carries, and now he’s going into his age 30 season with 2054 career carries. He ranks 28^th all-time in rushing yards with 10,190, but, of the top-25 all-time leading rushers who have played in the last decade and a half, the average one has his last 1000 yard season in his age 30 season at 2602 carrier carries. He could be fresh off of a season off, but he could just as easily be rusty.

He should still be a big asset for them, as he ranked in the top-11 among running backs on Pro Football Focus in every season from 2010-2013, the only running back in the NFL who can say that. The Vikings will probably still give him 300+ carries as long as he stays on the field, because Norv Turner has always preferred feature backs who frequently carry the ball 20 times per game, but there’s no guarantee that the Vikings will average more yards per carry than they did last season, when they averaged 4.36 yards per carry. They will probably be more consistent on the ground though and pick up more than 90 rushing first downs on the season. McKinnon will work as a strict backup and probably only on running downs because he doesn’t possess any passing down abilities, though Peterson isn’t that good on passing downs either (neither is Asiata for that matter).

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

The Vikings’ offensive line wasn’t nearly as good in 2014 as it was in 2013, even though they returned the same starting 5. They weren’t bad as run blockers, grading out 10^th in team run blocking grade, but they ranked 25^th in team pass blocking grade, after grading out 7^th in that aspect in 2013. The biggest culprit was injuries. After their starting 5 missed a combined 3 games with injury in 2013, they missed 20 games with injury upfront in 2014.

The biggest loss in terms of sheer games was right guard Brandon Fusco, who was limited to 176 snaps in 3 games by a torn pectoral. Fusco graded out 8^th among guards in 2013 when healthy, earning him a 5-year, 25 million dollar deal last off-season. He’s still a one year wonder, who graded out 73^rd among 81 eligible guards in 2012 in his first season as a starter, but having him back and healthy will be good for this team. Joe Berger was decent on 626 snaps last season, but Vladimir Ducasse struggled mightily on 417 snaps, grading out 61^st among 78 eligible guards.

Left guard Charlie Johnson also missed 2 games with injury so Joe Berger also played a little bit there last season. Johnson is gone, after grading out 56^th among 78 eligible guards last season, so Berger could start there this season. Berger has actually never graded out below average once in Pro Football Focus’ 8 year history, as a super-utility man, playing left guard, right guard, and center, but he’s also only made 38 starts over that time period. He’s also going into his age 33 season, though he could still be decent this season. Long-term, he’ll face competition from 2015 4^th round pick TJ Clemmings, who was seen as a 2^nd round pick before a pre-draft foot injury. Berger is the favorite in my mind, with 2014 5^th round pick David Yankey, who didn’t play a snap a rookie, also in the mix.

Right tackle Phil Loadholt missed 5 games with injury last season, which was a big loss, as backup Michael Harris struggled on 376 snaps in his absence. Loadholt graded out only slightly above average last season in 11 games, though he’s been better in the past. The 2009 2^nd round pick has graded out above average in 5 of 6 seasons in the NFL, including the last 4. In 2012 and 2013 respectively, he finished 21^st and 11^th among offensive tackles, proving himself as one of the best right tackles in the game. Only going into his age 29 season, he should bounce back to at least have a solid year in 2015.

On the other side of the offensive tackle, Matt Kalil made all 16 starts, but he was horrific. The 4th overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft had a great rookie year, grading out 21st at his position. He slipped to 51st in 2013, but a knee injury was blamed as the culprit. I don’t know what happened in 2014 though, as he graded out 81st out of 84 eligible, allowing 12 sacks and committing 12 penalties. He had more knee problems (though he’s never missed a game with injury), but it’s fair to wonder if he’ll ever bounce back. The Vikings picked up his 11.09 million dollar option for 2016, but that’s only guaranteed for injury, so his future with the Vikings is definitely not secure. They really need him to play well, but he’s highly unlikely to live up to such a large scheduled salary.

The only Viking offensive lineman who started all 16 games and played well was center John Sullivan, who graded out 12^th among centers in 2014. He’s been better in the past though and, only going into his age 30 season, I think he’s still one of the better centers in the NFL. The 2008 6^th round pick was a late bloomer, not really coming around until his 4^th season in the league in 2011, but he graded out 3^rd that year, 1^st in 2012, and 3^rd in 2013, meaning last season was actually a down season for him. He’s made 63 out of 64 starts over the past 4 seasons and should remain a valuable asset in the middle of their offensive line. They can’t count on being as healthy on the offensive line as they were in 2013, but they should be healthier than they were in 2014 and I think Joe Berger (assuming he wins the job) is probably an upgrade on Charlie Johnson, so things are looking up on the offensive line.

Grade: B+

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

The offensive line wasn’t the only place the Vikings had significant injuries on offense last season as they had the 10^th most adjusted games lost to injury on offense last season. Tight end Kyle Rudolph missed 7 games with sports hernia surgery, in the first year of a 5-year, 36.5 million dollar extension that the Vikings have him last off-season ahead of his contract year. They gave him that extension even though he missed 8 games with injury in 2013, because he was very solid in his first two years in the league in 2011 and 2012, grading out 12^th among tight ends in both seasons. That was largely because of his blocking abilities at 6-6 259, but he still showed decent pass catching ability with upside and the Vikings clearly wanted him to be a part of their future.

Now his future looks a little bleaker. Rudolph only missed 1 game with injury in the first 2 seasons of his career, after an injury riddled tenure at Notre Dame that caused him to fall out of the first round, but he’s missed 15 games over the past 2 seasons and hasn’t been the same player even when on the field. He’s going into his age 26 season so a bounce back year that gets his career back on track is still a possibility, but he’s hard to trust.

In his absence, Rhett Ellison and Chase Ford played 564 and 345 snaps respectively. Ellison is a fullback by trade (and a very good one) but moved to tight end out of desperation. He wasn’t bad, but he did struggle and ultimately proved he’s more valuable at fullback, where he graded out 4^th as a 4^th round rookie in 2012 and 8^th in 2013. With another talented fullback Jerome Felton gone, Ellison should move back to his old spot, where he could see a fair amount of action, even as a situational player. Ford, meanwhile, is a 2012 undrafted free agent who didn’t play a snap as a rookie, but graded out above average on 151 snaps in 2013 and then on 345 in 2014. He’ll compete with 5^th round rookie MyCole Pruitt for the #2 job and he should be the heavy favorite.

Greg Jennings has been the Vikings’ leading receiver in each of the past two seasons. However, he’s never put up very big numbers 68/804/4 in 2013 and 59/742/6 in 2014, which is disappointing, considering the Vikings brought him in to be a difference maker in the receiving corps, when they gave him a 5-year, 45 million dollar deal in free agency two off-seasons ago. Part of that was quarterback play and he didn’t grade out below average in either season, but the Vikings made the right move releasing him this off-season, ahead of his age 32 season in 2015. That move saved the Vikings 9 million in cash, 5 million of which immediately comes off their cap. The Vikings ended up paying him 18 million over 2 years.

The problem is the Vikings didn’t spend that 9 million in freed up money well, as they traded a late round pick to the Dolphins for Mike Wallace and his 9.9 million dollar salary for 2015. The Dolphins probably would have outright released him if the Vikings hadn’t traded for him, even though he still had 3 million in guaranteed money left on his deal that they would have had to pay either way. There’s a reason why the Dolphins were trying to get rid of Wallace so badly. Wallace is a solid receiver, but his last 1000+ yard year was in 2011, also the last season he graded out above average.

In his final year in Pittsburgh in 2012, he held out long into the off-season, which caused him to have a horrible season. His 64/836/8 slash line wasn’t terrible, but he caught just 55.2% of his targets and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 91st ranked wide receiver out of 105 eligible. That didn’t stop the Dolphins from giving Wallace a 5-year, 60 million dollar deal two off-season ago and he predictably didn’t live up to it, grading out below average in both seasons, putting up slash lines of 73/930/5 and 67/862/10, and reportedly quitting on his team on multiple occasions. He’s younger than Jennings and fits well into offensive coordinator Norv Turner’s offense, but I don’t think he’s necessarily an upgrade. He’s an average starting wide receiver and someone who should not be your #1 receiver, which he’ll be in Minnesota.

Opposite him, Cordarrelle Patterson and Charles Johnson will compete for the starting job. Patterson was brought in during the same off-season as Jennings and the Vikings expected them to turn around their receiving corps and play together long-term. That really didn’t work out, as Patterson looks like a bust through 2 years in the league and Jennings is gone. Patterson has provided some value, but not doing things that wide receivers are supposed to do. He’s averaged 29.4 yards per kickoff return on 77 kickoff returns, with 1 touchdown. He’s rushed for 275 yards and 4 touchdowns on 22 carries. However, he hasn’t graded out above average as a receiver in either season and has only caught 78 passes on 130 targets (60.0%) for 853 yards and 5 touchdowns on 656 routes run, an average of 1.30 yards per route run.

Patterson spent most of his rookie year behind journeyman Jerome Simpson, won the starting job late in the season, started 2014 as the starter, but struggled and lost his starting job to the unproven Charles Johnson. Now and he Johnson will compete for the starting job opposite Wallace and it’s very possible that Johnson, who is well liked by the coaching staff, wins that job. That would push Patterson into possibly the #4 wide receiver job, working in on offense as primarily a gadget player and specializing in returning kickoffs.

Johnson didn’t play a snap as a 7^th round rookie in Cleveland in 2013, but ended up starting the final 6 games of the 2014 season for the Vikings and playing 451 snaps. His numbers in those final 6 games are solid, as he caught 19 passes for 328 yards and 2 touchdowns, but that was largely to do with Teddy Bridgewater’s play over those 6 games, as Johnson still graded out below average on the season. Even over those final 6 games, Johnson only caught 19 of 36 passes (52.8%). As I mentioned, the coaching staff likes him and his size (6-2 215), but he’s not guaranteed to ever develop into a solid starter or anything beyond a situational deep threat.

Jairus Wright is probably locked into the slot job regardless. The 5-10 180 pounder couldn’t make a living outside, but does a decent job on the slot and should remain there. He’s not a spectacular player, only grading out above average once in 3 years in the league, since going in the 4^th round in 2012, but he’s caught 90 passes on 137 targets (65.7%) for 1332 yards and 7 touchdowns on 805 routes run, an average of 1.65 yards per route run. Expect more of the same from him this season. It’s a receiving corps with a lot of unresolved issues, holding back an otherwise strong offense.

Grade: C

Defensive Line

The Vikings’ defense wasn’t great in 2014, as they finished 23^rd in rate of moving the chains allowed, but they were noticeably better than 2015, when they finished 30^th in that aspect. This shouldn’t be a surprise considering Mike Zimmer’s history and background. Zimmer spent a whopping 14 years at the defensive coordinator level and did a great job across 3 stops, Dallas, Atlanta, and Cincinnati. When the Vikings hired him as their head coach last off-season, it was long overdue and the results were immediately noticeable, even if it didn’t get the team into the playoffs right away. The Vikings were helped by having the 3^rd fewest defensive adjusted games lost to injury last season, something they won’t be able to count on again, but they have a good enough mix of talent and coaching where they can overcome that. With Zimmer and Bridgewater in the fold, the Vikings seem to finally have quarterback/head coach stability that they can build around.

Like on offense, the Vikings benefitted significantly from a first round rookie on defense, as 9^th overall pick Anthony Barr contributed in a big way as a rookie, great to see from a guy regarded as really raw coming out of UCLA. He’s only going into his age 23 season and only his 4^th season on offense after spending the first 2 seasons of his collegiate career as a fullback. He wowed at the Combine running a 4.66 40 at 6-5 255, looking like a running back in a pass rusher’s body, and he has a great future after such a strong rookie year. He ranked 8^th among 4-3 outside linebackers as a rookie, largely playing as a traditional 4-3 outside linebacker, dropping into coverage on 340 of 455 pass play snaps. With minimal depth on the defensive line, Barr could play more of a hybrid role this season, rushing the passer off the edge in sub packages, while staying at 4-3 outside linebacker in sub packages. He was much more effective as a pass rusher than he was in coverage as a rookie, and predictably so.

The Vikings were also helped by a breakout year from 4-3 defensive end Everson Griffen. The Vikings gave Griffen a 5-year, 42.5 million dollar contract ahead of free agency last off-season, keeping their 2010 4^th round pick long-term. It was a risky move because Griffen was largely unproven, but he broke out in 2014 in his first season as an every down player, grading out 8^th among 4-3 defensive ends. It still was a weird move for three reasons.

One, it’s unclear who else would have paid him that much. Second, he never graded out better than 20^th among 4-3 defensive ends in the first 4 years of his career, from 2010-2013. Part of that had to do with lack of playing time, but he only graded out above average in 2 of those 4 seasons and, in that season he ranked 20^th, he actually played 717 snaps, so it wasn’t like he didn’t have any chances. And third, Griffen is still unlikely to exceed the value of that contract long-term, even if he does play well, so it’s a contract with much more downside than upside. All that being said, with full hindsight, the move does appear to have been the right one. Griffen has experience playing defensive tackle in sub packages and he has the size to do it effectively at 6-3 273 so he could do that more this season, with Barr rushing the passer off the edge in sub packages.

One of the weaknesses of the Vikings’ defense last season was the other starting defensive end, Brian Robison. Kept long-term instead of Jared Allen, the Vikings gave Robison a 4-year, 22.4 million dollar extension during the 2013 season, but he bombed in 2014, grading out 52^nd among 59 eligible 4-3 defensive ends. Going into his age 32 season, it’s very possible that his best days are behind him. He graded out above average in every season from 2008-2013, both as a starter and a backup, so there’s definitely bounce back potential here, but he can’t be allowed to play 932 snaps (5^th at the position) again in 2015.

The Vikings should give Barr more pass rush snaps and should use 2014 3^rd round pick Scott Crichton in a larger capacity, after he played just 16 nondescript snaps as a rookie. They also added Danielle Hunter in the 3^rd round of the draft this year. Robison will need a good year to stay on the roster at his scheduled 4.05 million dollar non-guaranteed salary for 2016. At the very least, the Vikings will have better depth at defensive end than last season, when Corey Wootton was their 3^rd defensive end. He played just 275 snaps, but still was Pro Football Focus’ 5^th worst ranked 4-3 defensive end, despite the limited playing time. No one graded out worse at the position on fewer snaps.

Along with Everson Griffen and the rookie Barr, defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd also had a breakout year in 2014, in his first year in Mike Zimmer’s system. The 2013 1^st round pick graded out below average on 472 snaps as a rookie, but he lived up to his billing and then some in 2014, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 5^th ranked defensive tackle. The 6-3 305 pounder seems to be Mike Zimmer’s new Geno Atkins. He’s still a one year wonder, but he has a ton of talent and is in a great system for his abilities. Only going into his age 24 season, he could even be better in his 3^rd year in the league in 2015. He should be more in the 700-800 snap range as an every down player.

Linval Joseph is the other starter. He signed a 5-year, 31.5 million dollar deal last off-season and played solid in his first season in Minnesota, grading out above average on 743 snaps. The 2010 2^nd round pick has graded out above average in each of the last 2 seasons, maxing out at 24^th among defensive tackles (2013), after grading out below average in each of the first 3 years in his career. He’s a solid, but unspectacular starter. The 6-4 328 pounder is primarily a run stopper, but he’s not useless on passing downs either. If Griffen plays inside on passing downs more this season, it would probably be at the expense of Joseph.

Tom Johnson was re-signed this off-season to a 3-year, 7 million dollar deal and will return as a talented reserve. Johnson graded out 23^rd among defensive tackles on just 444 snaps as a reserve in 2014, but he’s going into his age 31 season and has never graded out above average in his career prior to last season, dating back to when he went undrafted in 2006, so he’s unlikely to be as good again. Shamar Stephen, meanwhile, was the 4^th defensive tackle last season as a 7^th round rookie and he played like a 7^th round rookie, grading out 67^th among 81 defensive tackles on just 414 snaps played. With Griffen expected to line up inside more often this season and Floyd expected to play more snaps, Stephen should rightfully have his role reduced this season. It’s a strong defensive line, with the exception of the declining Robison. It’ll help to not have guys like Shamar and Wootton playing significant roles.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

One of the reasons the Vikings figure to be deeper on the defensive line this season, a big problem for them last season, is because Barr is expected to play more at defensive end. That’s only possible because they probably will have a middle linebacker capable of playing every down this season, freeing up Barr to play defensive end in sub packages. That middle linebacker is Eric Kendricks, a 2^nd round rookie. He might not be great as a rookie, but he’s not as limited of a player as Jasper Brinkley, their starting middle linebacker last season. Brinkley graded out above average among middle linebackers, including 8^th against the run, but really struggled in coverage and played just 471 snaps as a result. He’ll be missed against the run, but Kendricks is a much more versatile player with greater upside.

Chad Greenway has been an every down starting outside linebacker since the Vikings drafted him in the 1^st round in 2007, making 124 of 128 starts in 8 seasons in the league, missing the first 4 games of his career only last season. However, he could lose his starting job to youngster Gerald Hodges. Greenway almost got cut this off-season, owed a non-guaranteed 7.1 million in his contract year in 2015, and only was brought back when he agreed to a 3.1 million dollar pay cut. Greenway signed a 5-year, 40.6 million dollar deal after the 2010 season, but he hasn’t graded out above average since then. He’s been especially bad over the past 2 seasons, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst ranked 4-3 outside linebacker in 2013 and their 3rd worst ranked 4-3 outside linebacker in 2014.

Going into his age 32 season, it sounds like the Vikings are finally going to stop giving him too much credit for past performance and his starting job could be in jeopardy as a result. If it’s a fair competition battle, Hodges should be the starter, but that might not be the case. Hodges is unproven, but the 2013 4^th round pick played 495 snaps last season in the first significant action of his career. Most of those snaps came when Anthony Barr and Chad Greenway were hurt last season and played great, grading out 9^th among 4-3 outside linebackers. He’s better than Greenway, but the Vikings may continue giving the veteran the benefit of the doubt, to their own peril. With a rookie inside, Anthony Barr will be the only saving grace of this linebacking corps if Hodges doesn’t start and he’s only going to play there in base packages, with Kendricks, Greenway/Hodges playing every down.

Grade: C+

Secondary

The Vikings’ secondary was strong last season. Their top-5 defensive backs (3 cornerbacks and 2 safeties) all graded out above average and they missed a combined 1 game, as part of a defense that had great luck with injuries in 2014. Despite that, the Vikings still felt like they needed to upgrade the secondary, adding veteran Terence Newman and rookie first round pick Trae Waynes to the mix. The former is going into his age 37 season and coming off of a down season in which he graded out below average.

However, he’s been with Zimmer in both Dallas and Cincinnati and has always played better with Zimmer around. Newman had his career revived once before by Zimmer, grading out above average as recently as 2012 and 2013, despite ranking 96^th out of 109 eligible cornerbacks in 2011 in his final season in Dallas. It’s also possible that he’s just done as a quality player in the league at his age. He’s reportedly the favorite for the starting job right now over the rookie and he’ll make a decent amount of money this season (2.5 million), but Waynes should overtake him in the starting lineup sooner or later.

With Newman or Waynes occupying one starting spot, Captain Munnerlyn, who started all 16 games last season, will be pushed to the 3^rd cornerback job and will be purely a slot specialist in sub packages. The 2008 7^th round pick has played well in recent years, grading out above average in each of the last 3 seasons, and 4 of the last 5 seasons, maxing out at 10^th among cornerbacks in 2013. He’s also made all 32 starts over the past 2 seasons. However, the 5-8 186 pounder does have some issues with bigger wide receivers outside and does his best work on the slot as a result. Over the past 3 years, he’s allowed 1.39 yards per coverage snap outside and 1.08 yards per coverage snap on the slot. He should be a good slot cornerback, with the loser of the Newman/Waynes battle falling to 4^th on the depth chart.

Josh Robinson was the 3^rd cornerback last season, but, with Newman and Waynes coming in, he seems to have fallen out of favor with the coaching staff and will serve as nothing more than strong, experienced depth as the 5^th cornerback. Robinson played alright last season, grading out above average in his 3^rd year in the league, after going in the 3^rd round in 2012. However, maybe the Vikings are right for still not trusting him, after he graded out 109^th among 113 eligible cornerbacks in 2012 and 99^th among 110 eligible in 2013. On top of that, he tore his pectoral earlier this month and could miss a significant portion of the season as a result, but that won’t really matter because of all the talent the Vikings have in front of him on the depth chart.

The one thing that remains the same at cornerback is that Xavier Rhodes will once again be their #1 cornerback. A first round pick in 2013, Rhodes impressed on 686 snaps as a rookie and then was even better in his 2^nd year in the league in 2014. He struggled against the run and committed 12 penalties, but ranked 14^th among cornerbacks in pure coverage grade, allowing 53.0% completion, 6.34 YPA, and deflecting 15 passes (2^nd at the position). Rhodes could be even better in his 3^rd season in the league in 2015, only his age 25 season.

He’s one of 8 first round picks the Vikings have made over the past 4 seasons, thanks to a series of trades back up into the end of the first round, and the 1^st rounder they got from Seattle for Percy Harvin, which was a steal by the Vikings. Constantly trading back up into the first round was a risky strategy that could have really backfired if they missed on a bunch of those picks, but they have generally done well with these 8 first rounders (Matt Kalil, Harrison Smith, Xavier Rhodes, Sharrif Floyd, Cordarelle Patterson, Anthony Barr, Teddy Bridgewater, and Trae Waynes) and that’s a huge part of the reason why the team is on the up.

Harrison Smith might be the best of the bunch, which is saying something. The talented safety shook off a sophomore season in 2013 in which he graded out below average and missed 8 games with injury, by playing all 16 games and grading out 2^nd among safeties in 2014. He played at an All-Pro level and he’s not a one-year wonder either. His 2013 wasn’t great, but he played all 16 games and ranked 19^th at his position in 2012. The Vikings made the no brainer move to pick up his 5^th year rookie option this off-season (another benefit of moving up into the first round to grab him) and hope that he continues this kind of top level play into his age 26 season in 2015 and beyond. They’ll try to sign him to a long-term extension over the next calendar year and it could rival or even surpass deals given to Earl Thomas (4 years, 40 million), Devin McCourty (5 years, 48.5 million), and Jairus Byrd (6 years, 54 million). He’s one of the best safeties in the NFL.

At the other safety spot is another safety from the 2012 draft class, but a much more unheralded one. Robert Blanton was a 5^th round pick in 2012 and was actually a teammate of Smith’s at Notre Dame, where Blanton played cornerback. Blanton flashed on 59 snaps as a rookie and then 405 snaps in 2013 (grading out above average both times) before winning the starting safety job in 2014, making 15 starts and grading out 17^th among safeties on Pro Football Focus. He’s still a one-year wonder, but I see no reason he couldn’t continue being at least a solid starter, considering he’s always played well when given a chance. Another strong season would set him up for a significant payday in free agency next off-season, assuming the Vikings are unable to lock him up beforehand.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Vikings were fairly mediocre on both sides of the ball last season, en route to a 7-9 finish and a 27^th place finish in rate of moving the chains differential. However, they should be better on both sides of the ball this season. They’ll have Teddy Bridgewater under center for the full season this year and he could take another step forward in his 2^nd year in the league. On top of that, Adrian Peterson will be back and they should have fewer injuries on the offensive line.

On defense, they won’t be able to count on fewer injuries and will probably have more, but they have a lot of young talent and they should work in more fitting roles this season. Their defense was largely brought down by players like Brian Robison, Shamar Stephens, Corey Wootton, and Chad Greenway. The first 3 should definitely play smaller roles this season and Greenway could as well. This team still has weaknesses in the receiving corps and the linebacking corps, but they have enough talent to compete for a playoff spot in the NFC. Whether or not they make the playoffs and how far they go once they get there is largely going to be on Teddy Bridgewater, but things are looking up and the future looks bright. As with all teams, I’ll have official win/loss records for the Vikings after I’ve done all team’s previews.

Prediction: 9-7 3rd in NFC North

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Green Bay Packers 2015 NFL Season Preview

July 7, 2015 stevenlourie 2015 NFL Season Previews, Packers, Uncategorized

Quarterback

In case there was any doubt, Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in football, something he proved last season. With Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees aging and Andrew Luck not quite there yet, Rodgers could keep that title for a couple years, at least. In 2014, Rodgers completed 65.6% of his passes for an average of 8.43 YPA, 38 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, quarterbacked a team that moved the chains at a 79.38% rate, best in the NFL, graded out #1 among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus, won the NFL’s MVP, and came close to knocking off the Seahawks in Seattle in the NFC Championship game and going to the Super Bowl.

It was about as good of a return from injury as the Packers could have expected from Rodgers after he missed 7 games and most of an 8^th game with a broken collarbone in 2013. The Packers went 2-6 without Rodgers in 2013 and they are 18-6 with him over the past 2 seasons combined. Even in 2013, when injuries limited him to 592 snaps, he still graded out 8^th among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus, with no one playing fewer snaps and grading out better at the position. Since 2009, Rodgers has graded out 4^th, 5^th, 2^nd, 3^rd, 8^th, and 1^st respectively among quarterbacks, with his only season out of the top-5 coming in an injury shortened season.

Over that time period, Rodgers has only missed 9 games with injury, so he’s usually durable. He’s completed 66.3% of his passes, for an average of 8.41 YPA, 197 touchdowns, and 43 interceptions since 2009, winning 64 of 86 games (74.4%). He’s also added 1577 yards and 16 touchdowns on 309 carries on the ground (5.10 YPC), as he simply doesn’t have a weakness in his game. He’s going into his age 32 season in 2015, but that’s nothing for a top level quarterback. Plenty have had great success at that age and beyond. He could easily be the best quarterback in the NFL again, led the NFL’s top offense again, and pick up his 3^rd MVP. He’s one of the best players in the NFL regardless of position.

Grade: A

Running Backs

As well as Rodgers played last season, he only wasn’t the only reason for the Packers’ offensive success. The Packers have done a great job of surrounding Rodgers with good offensive talent. An offense that used to be so reliant on their quarterback and receivers has gotten significantly “tougher,” to use a cliché, over the past few seasons, meaning that now they have a strong running game and offensive line. The Packers return 11 of 11 starters from 2014 and look poised for strong offensive play once again. Their only real obstacle to being the #1 offense again is injuries, as the Packers really had none offensively last season, having the 3^rd fewest offensive adjusted games lost to injury. Of course, top offenses like Dallas (4^th), Denver (5^th), and Pittsburgh (3^rd) also had no offensive injuries last season, so the Packers aren’t alone. Ironically, only the Saints (2^nd) had a strong offensive performance despite some offensive injuries.

Eddie Lacy has proven to be a great complement for Aaron Rodgers in the backfield. In 2 years in the NFL since the Packers drafted him in the 2^nd round in 2013, Lacy has missed just 1 game with injury and rushed for 2317 yards and 20 touchdowns on 530 carries (4.37 YPC), while adding 77 catches for 684 yards and another 4 scores through the air. Certainly, Rodgers’ presence helps Lacy, but Lacy also helps Rodgers and is a fantastic running back in his own right. He graded out 5^th among running backs on Pro Football Focus as a rookie in 2013, winning Offensive Rookie of the Year, and then finished 3^rd in 2014. He joins Marshawn Lynch as the only running back in the NFL to grade out in the top-5 in each of the last 2 seasons. Only going into his age 25 season at a position where youth is such an asset, Lacy is one of the best running backs in the game.

James Starks will be his primary backup. A 2010 6^th round pick, Starks flashed some starting running back potential early in his career, but injuries eventually did him in, as he missed 26 games with injury in his first 3 years in the NFL from 2010-2012, which led to the Packers’ selection of Eddie Lacy in the 2013 NFL Draft. Starks has injury problems dating back to his collegiate days, which is why he fell to the 6^th round, but he’s played in 29 of 32 games over the past 2 seasons as Lacy’s backup, including all 16 for the first time in his career last season. His career numbers aren’t bad, as he’s rushed for 1760 yards and 7 touchdowns on 407 carries (4.32 YPC), while adding 63 catches for 491 yards and another score through the air. He’s graded out above average on Pro Football Focus in 3 of 5 seasons in the NFL and is a solid backup. Obviously, any injury to Lacy would be a huge loss for this team, but Starks isn’t a bad 2^nd option.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

As I mentioned, the Packers have a strong offensive line too. They ranked 1^st in team pass blocking grade on Pro Football Focus last season and 17^th in team run blocking grade. Their only real weakness is left tackle David Bakhtiari, who has made all 32 starts over the past 2 seasons since the Packers took him in the 4^th round in 2013, but has largely played like a 4^th round pick, grading out 62^nd among 76 eligible offensive tackles as a rookie and then 53^rd out of 84 eligible last season. He’ll start again in 2015, largely out of necessity, but the Packers are good enough across the rest of the line to make up for it.

They might have the best guard combination in the NFL in Josh Sitton and TJ Lang. Sitton is the better of the two and arguably one of the best guards in the NFL. The 2008 4^th round pick has made 94 of 96 starts since 2009 and graded out 8^th, 5^th, 2^nd, 6^th, 2^nd, and 4^th respectively in the 6 seasons since then. No other guard has graded out in the top-8 in each of the last 6 seasons, or even come close to that. He’s graded out above average in every season he’s been in the league and, only going into his age 29 with minimal injury history, he’s still in the prime of his career. He should be dominant again in 2015.

Lang isn’t quite as proven, but he’s had a very impressive career as well, and the 2009 4^th round pick is only going into his age 28 season, so he too is still in the prime of his career. He’s made 63 of 64 starts over the past 4 seasons, including 6 at right tackle. He’s struggled at right tackle, but he’s graded out above average at guard in all 4 seasons that he’s been the primary starter from 2011-2014, including 22^nd in 2011, 15^th in 2013, and 3^rd last season. He and Sitton are a great combination, and one that is incredibly durable.

The Packers got a great center to go in between Lang and Sitton last off-season, drafting Corey Linsley in the 2014 draft. You wouldn’t expect a 5^th rounder like Linsley to have the kind of rookie year that he did last year, but he exceeded all expectations, making 16 starts, grading out 5^th among centers, and having one of the year’s best rookie seasons by an offensive player, regardless of position. He’s still a one-year wonder and I don’t think he’s at the point where the fact that the whole league let him drop to the 5^th round is irrelevant, but he definitely looks like a steal and could easily be a long-term, above average starter.

Rounding out at the offensive line at right tackle is Bryan Bulaga, who the Packers re-signed to a 5-year, 33.75 million dollar deal ahead of free agency this off-season. Bulaga has been a starter for the Packers since they drafted him in the 1st round in 2010, making his debut as a starter in week 5 of 2010. However, despite that, he’s only made 48 starts in 5 seasons, as he’s missed 30 games with injuries over that time period, including all of 2013 with a torn ACL. When on the field, he’s been up and down. He struggled mightily as a rookie, grading out 71st out of 78 eligible in 2010, but he ranked 7th among offensive tackles on 12 starts in 2011. In 2012, he graded out below average in 9 starts before missing all of 2013, but he returned in 2014 to make 15 starts and grade out 16th among offensive tackles. He’s a risky player and the deal they gave him to stay was a risky deal as a result, but it’s good that the Packers kept him for continuity reasons, even if it’s very tough to count on him being as healthy or as good as he was last season. It’s an overall strong offensive line again though.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

Along with Bryan Bulaga, the Packers also re-signed Randall Cobb ahead of free agency this off-season, settling on a 4-year, 40 million dollar deal with the wide receiver, after a long negotiation period that seemed like it would end with Cobb taking more money elsewhere. The Packers upped their offer from 9 million annually to 10 million annually at the last second and Cobb took less money to stay in Green Bay, passing on a 5-year, 55 million dollar deal from the Oakland Raiders. It’s the kind of compromise where both sides win.

In Oakland, Cobb would have likely struggled to put up numbers on a losing team and could have easily been cut midway through his contract for not putting up numbers comparable to his large salary. In Green Bay, he’s much more likely to be kept for the duration of the contract and he’ll hit free agency again in 4 years going into his age 29 season with a chance at another big payday. Even though he took less money to return to Green Bay, this deal likely maximizes his career earnings potential. Because of that and the obvious increased chance of getting a ring in Green Bay, Cobb was the real winner, but the Packers have to be pretty happy with the deal too.

The Packers didn’t get Cobb quite as cheaply as they would have liked, but they still got a discount over what he would have gotten on the open market and a solid value. While it’s not hard to get good production out of receivers when you have Aaron Rodgers under center, Cobb is still a very valuable part of this offense. Cobb didn’t see a ton of playing time as a 2nd round rookie in 2011 and he missed 10 games with a broken leg in 2013. However, in his other two seasons, he put up 80/954/8 (in 2012) and then 91/1287/12 (in 2014). Cobb was Pro Football Focus’ 11^th ranked wide receiver in 2012 and then 9^th in 2014. Other than the leg injury, he doesn’t have much of an injury history and he’s only going into his age 25 season so he could keep getting better.

Cobb will once again be a starter at wide receiver opposite Jordy Nelson. Much like Sitton and Lang at guard, Nelson and Cobb are among the best wide receiver duos in the NFL. Obviously, having Rodgers under center is great for both of them, but in their own right they’re both great wide receivers and both a big part of the reason why this offense works so well. Nelson, a 2008 2^nd round pick, has graded out above average in 4 straight seasons, including 2^nd in 2013 and then 2^nd again in 2014, and is only going into his age 30 season in 2015.

Davante Adams worked as the 3^rd receiver in 2014 as a 2^nd round rookie. He was drafted with Cobb’s impending free agency in mind, but now gets stuck behind Cobb and Nelson indefinitely with Cobb returning long-term. It’s a tough situation for Adams, but it’s for the best for the Packers. Adams struggled as a rookie in 2014, grading out 99^th out of 110 eligible wide receivers. It’s not uncommon for a rookie wideout to struggle and that rough rookie year doesn’t doom his career, but he’s far from someone you can trust with a significant role. Bringing Cobb back was well worth it.

Adams will work solely in sub packages outside, moving Cobb to the slot in 3-wide sets. While he’ll be blocked for serious playing time barring injury, he still gets to catch passes for Aaron Rodgers with great help around him, so if he ever figures his game out, he can put up pretty decent numbers, like guys like James Jones did before him. This offense is a well-oiled machine in all facets and you can put up decent numbers even if you’re just along for the ride.

I mentioned earlier that 11 of 11 starters return for the Packers from their #1 offense in 2014. That might not end up being completely the case if they decide to cut tight end Andrew Quarless (11 starts in 2014), after he was arrested in an incident where he allegedly fired a firearm in public while involved in a fight. That happened just a few days ago so it’s unclear what the Packers response will be, but it could be to cut him, and, even if they don’t cut him, he could be suspended.

It wouldn’t be a huge loss. The 2010 5^th round pick has graded out just once in 5 seasons in the NFL and he only played 60.2% of the Packers’ offensive snaps last season, despite playing in all 16 games. The 323 receiving yards he had last season were a career high. It’s possible the Packers were planning on moving him into more of a situational role this year anyway, in favor of having 2014 3^rd round pick Richard Rodgers becoming the new starting tight end. He struggled mightily on 491 snaps as a rookie, but it could be worth seeing what he has, especially if Quarless’ off-the-field situation looks bad. Rodgers could be better in his 2^nd year in the league, but he has a long way to go if he’s going to turn the tight end position into a strength. 6^th round pick Kennard Backman could be the #2 tight end if Quarless gets cut. The Packers’ lack of a good tertiary receiving option/tight end is the only weakness on an offense that could once again be the best in the NFL, barring major injuries.

Grade: A-

Defensive Line

While things were great on offense for the Packers last season, that was not the case at all on defense, where they allowed opponents to move the chains at a 74.75% rate, 27^th in the NFL. That’s why they “only” finished in 6^th in rate of moving the chains differential despite an outstanding offense. Returning essentially the same offense for this season, the Packers could be the Super Bowl Champion in 2015 if their defense is better. That is going to be easier said than done though.

One of the things the Packers are banking on improving their defense is the return of BJ Raji from injury, after he missed all of last season with a torn biceps. However, Raji is overrated and not the nearly consistently dominant player people think he is. At best, he’s inconsistent. At worst, he’s a liability. He graded out 7^th among 3-4 defensive ends in 2012, but graded out dead last at his position in 2013 and then missed all of last season. The 2009 1^st round pick has graded out above average just once in 6 seasons in the NFL and his stock isn’t looking up, going into his age 29 season already and coming off of a significant injury. Besides, it’s not like the Packers had a ridiculous amount of defensive injuries last season or anything. They had more on defense than they had on offense, but they still had the 11^th fewest adjusted games lost on defense so they won’t be able to count on better health to make them a better defense.

Letroy Guion started in Raji’s absence last season and he was arguably better. That doesn’t mean he was good, but he was still probably better than Raji would have. Guion has graded out below average in 6 of 7 seasons in the league since he was drafted in the 5^th round in 2008, including 4 straight seasons, a 2012 season in which he ranked 85^th out of 85 eligible defensive tackles and a 2013 season in which he ranked 60^th out of 69 eligible. He wasn’t good last season and he could be even worse this season. With Raji likely taking back the nose tackle job from the undersized 6-4 303 Guion, I expect him to see the majority of his playing time as a rotational player at 3-4 defensive end. I don’t expect him to be an asset.

The Packers are hoping that 2013 1^st round pick Datone Jones can nail down one of the starting jobs at defensive end. His career hasn’t been off to a good start. Despite plenty of opportunity, he’s played just 586 snaps in the first 2 seasons of his career combined. He graded out below average in 2013 as a rookie, struggling mightily in limited action, and, while he graded out above average in 2014, he still struggled against the run. The 6-4 285 pounder is a solid situational pass rusher, but he might just not have the size to hold up every down on the defensive line in a 3-4. He’s also suspended for the first game of the season because of marijuana. Josh Boyd is also in the mix for rotational snaps on the defensive line. The 2013 5^th round pick has played just 495 snaps in the first 2 seasons of his career combined and hasn’t shown much potential, grading out below average in both seasons. The 6-3 310 pounder was used primarily in base packages against the run last season, but he isn’t very good against the run, or as a pass rusher for that matter.

The only redeeming part of this defensive line is Mike Daniels. Daniels was drafted in the 4^th round in 2012 and, after 231 underwhelming snaps as a rookie, Daniels has blossomed into a strong interior defensive lineman, with upside only going into his age 26 season. Daniels graded out 6^th among 3-4 defensive ends in 2013 and followed that up by grading out 8^th at the positon in 2014. The 6-0 294 pounder is a better pass rusher than run stopper, but is far from a liability in either area. Going into the final year of his rookie deal in 2015, Daniels would stand to make a lot of money next off-season if he can continue his strong play. He’s the only bright spot on a weak defensive line and one of the few bright spots on this weak defense.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

One of the other ways the Packers expect to be better this season is with better play at middle linebacker, a position that was a huge weakness for them last season. AJ Hawk, Sam Barrington, Jamari Lattimore, and Brad Jones all graded out below average last year and Hawk and Jones both graded out among the 10 worst middle linebackers on Pro Football Focus. That, combined with their horrible defensive line, was the source of their issues against the run and a big part of the reason why this defense was so bad last season.

Things got so bad last season that they had to move Clay Matthews inside to middle linebacker in base packages and it seems like they’re planning on doing that even more this season, in an effort to turn around their defense. Hawk, Jones, and Lattimore are gone, but Sam Barrington remains and the likes of Carl Bradford and Jake Ryan don’t exactly seem like starting caliber going into 2015. The former is a 2014 4^th round pick who didn’t play a snap as a rookie, while the latter was drafted in the 4^th round in this past draft. Barrington, meanwhile, has played 367 nondescript snaps in 2 seasons in the league since the Packers took him in the 7^th round in 2013. At least one of that trio, if not two, will have a significant role at middle linebacker for the Packers this season. That’s a problem.

Despite the Packers’ lack of talent at middle linebacker, I still don’t think moving Matthews inside to play regular snaps is the right move. Even though it’s only in base packages, it still reduces his chances at rushing the passer, which is really where he’s best. He’s solid in coverage, but he’s better moving forward than backward. He also struggled against the run last season, largely due to the significant amount of time he spent out of position. On top of that, Matthews himself reportedly doesn’t like playing middle linebacker because he has such great pass rush ability and sacks get contracts. This move doesn’t make sense all around.

Matthews graded out 18^th among 3-4 outside linebackers overall last season, doing his best work as a pass rusher, ranking 16^th at the position in that aspect. That’s pretty good, but he’s been much better in the past when he’s played a more traditional role. Prior to an injury plagued 2013 season, Matthews graded 6^th, 6^th, 5^th, and 1^st respectively among 3-4 outside linebackers from his rookie year in 2009 to 2012 and was one of the best defensive players in the game, primarily rushing the passer off the edge. The Packers shouldn’t mess with that.

One of the probable reasons why the Packers seem to want to experiment with Matthews inside is because they think their depth at outside linebacker is better than their depth at inside linebacker. That’s true, but it’s largely by default. Mike Neal was their 3^rd outside linebacker last season, seeing a lot of playing time with Matthews sometimes playing inside in base packages and Julius Peppers sometimes playing defensive tackle in sub packages. He was horrible though, grading out dead last among 3-4 outside linebackers in 2014, after grading out 40^th out of 42 eligible in 2013.

The 2010 2^nd round pick was better earlier in his career at 3-4 defensive end, but the Packers moved him to 3-4 outside linebacker two off-seasons ago and insist on keeping him there despite his struggles. The 6-3 294 pounder is not a natural fit for the position at all. He’s expectedly decent against the run, but doesn’t generate any pass rush. Maybe Nick Perry, their 2012 1^st round pick, can beat him out for the #3 job, but that would require him to stay healthy, as he’s missed 16 games in 3 seasons in the league. Even when on the field, he hasn’t been good. He has graded out below average in 2 of 3 seasons in the league, maxed out at 376 snaps in 2013, and averaged just 24.5 snaps played per game (32.9% of snaps) in 2014 as the clear 4^th outside linebacker. The Packers have essentially admitted he’s a bust by declining his 5^th year option for 2016, despite the fact that it’s guaranteed for injury only. Neither he nor Neal is good to have playing a regular role off the edge.

Julius Peppers is the other primary outside linebacker besides Matthews. Other than Matthews and Daniels, he’s one of just a few redeeming parts of this weak front 7. He primarily plays 3-4 outside linebacker and rushes the passer off the edge, but has the size at 6-5 283 to rush the passer from the interior in sub packages, which he did occasionally in 2014. Peppers’ career looked like it was coming to a close at this time last year, after he got cut by the Bears following a 2013 season in which he graded out 40^th out of 52 eligible among 4-3 defensive ends.

While Green Bay picked him up and gave him a good amount of money, his future still looked bleak going into his age 34 season. Peppers proved a lot of people wrong by grading out 7^th among 3-4 outside linebackers in his first year at the position in 2014, after spending the rest of his career at 4-3 defensive end. However, he’s unlikely to repeat that in his age 35 season in 2015 and could see his abilities fall off a cliff. Even though he’s only graded out below average once in Pro Football Focus’ 8 year history and even though he’s likely Hall of Fame bound with 125.5 career sacks (16^th most all-time), he’s hard to trust this season. Peppers and Matthews make a good 3-4 outside linebacker duo, but the former is getting pretty old and the latter is having his position fiddled with. They certainly aren’t enough alone to boost this mediocre linebacking corps or this mediocre front 7.

Grade: C

Secondary

Given how bad the Packers’ middle linebackers were last season, I actually had them taking middle linebackers with their first 2 picks in the draft in my final mock draft. Taking two guys at the same position with your first two picks in a draft is rare, but the Packers had a serious need there, few pressing needs elsewhere, and the value made sense both times. The Packers didn’t draft a middle linebacker with either of those two picks, but they did double up on a position, taking a pair of cornerbacks in Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins. As a result, they didn’t address the middle linebacker position until the 4^th round, as they added a return man/depth receiver in Ty Montgomery in the 3^rd round.

The secondary wasn’t nearly as big of a need as middle linebacker, but the two picks do make sense, after the Packers lost Tramon Williams (1032 snaps) and Davon House (411 snaps) to free agency. Williams was good, but aging, going into his age 32 season and House was unproven. However, those two losses did leave them thin at the position. Prior to the draft, Sam Shields, Casey Hayward, and Micah Hyde were their top-3 cornerbacks, which is fine, but not ideal and they had no proven depth whatsoever.

Even with the 2 rookies coming in, Sam Shields remains locked into one starting cornerback spot, overpaid on a 4-year, 39 million dollar deal the Packers gave him last off-season. He graded out below average in the first season of that deal and missed 2 games with injury. That shouldn’t be surprising though, as the 2010 undrafted free agent has never played a full 16 game season and has only once graded out higher than 30^th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus in his career. He’s certainly not a bad player and he’s a deserving starter, but he does get paid like something more than that.

Casey Hayward should be the starter opposite him. The 2012 2^nd round pick graded out 4^th among cornerbacks on 703 snaps as a rookie and some (including me) thought he should have been Defensive Rookie of the Year. However, he missed 13 games with injury in 2013 and fell down the depth chart, playing just 435 snaps in 2014, as the 4^th cornerback. He still graded out 9^th among cornerbacks on those 435 snaps though, making it 2 times in 3 years that no one has played fewer snaps and graded out better at the position than Heyward. Even in the season he largely missed with injury, he graded out above average. An every down starting job is long overdue and it looks like he’ll get his chance in 2015, which could lead to a big-time breakout year and an expensive contract next off-season.

Micah Hyde could be the 3^rd cornerback, but he’ll have to hold off the rookie Randall. Randall, their first round pick, played both slot cornerback and safety in college at the University of Arizona, but it looks like he will focus on the slot cornerback job in the NFL. The Packers also reportedly think he has outside cornerback abilities, at least long-term, but he’d probably need Heyward to leave as a free agent to free up that kind of role.

Hyde, meanwhile, did play 720 snaps as the 3^rd cornerback last season, but he graded out below average. He flashed on 428 snaps as a 5^th round rookie in 2013, but couldn’t translate that to more playing time. They didn’t need to upgrade him with Randall, but they probably did and Randall could take Hyde’s job away as soon as week 1. Rollins, on the other hand, will need to wait until someone like Heyward leaves as a free agent to get a significant role and won’t do much outside provide great depth as the 5^th cornerback as a rookie.

Randall is a collegiate safety and Rollins is a physical cornerback, one who plays bigger than his 5-11 195 frame, but neither of them will be able to find a path to regular playing time at the safety position anytime soon, as Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Morgan Burnett seem pretty entrenched there, entering their 2^nd season together. Clinton-Dix did grade out below average as a 1^st round rookie in 2014, but not by much and could easily be noticeably better in his 2^nd year in the league. He has good upside and doesn’t seem like he’s going anywhere soon.

Burnett, meanwhile, is not the best safety in the league by any stretch of the any imagination, but he’s made 60 of 64 starts over the past 4 seasons and graded out above average in 3 of those 4 seasons, including 16^th in 2014. Also important is the fact that Burnett is only going into his age 26 season and signed fairly cheaply long-term, owed just 13.25 million dollars over the next 3 seasons combined. He also isn’t going anywhere anytime quickly. They’re not the best safety duo in the league, but they’re a solid group that could be playing together for a while, at least in football years. It’s a solid and deep secondary, but not one that will be able to mask the flaws of the front 7 completely.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Packers had the best offense in the NFL last season and return all 11 starters on a unit that doesn’t have a single player over 30 besides the quarterback Aaron Rodgers (who will be 32 later this year). They’ll probably have more injuries on offense this season, but, barring anything catastrophic, they have so much talent that they could still overcome a normal amount of injuries and be the best offensive team in the NFL again in 2015. If they can even be average defensively, this is probably the favorite to win the Super Bowl.

However, things are not nearly as good on defense as they are on offense. They had one of the worst defenses in the NFL last season and didn’t do much to fix it this off-season, aside from adding 2 cornerbacks in the first 2 rounds of the draft, neither of whom fill a big need and the latter of whom probably won’t see much, if any, defensive action as a rookie. They still have major needs on the defensive line and at middle linebacker and figure to struggle mightily against the run again this season, allowing opponents to mount long scoring drives once again.

They could even be worse this season with Tramon Williams gone, Julius Peppers going into his age 35 season, and Clay Matthews getting unnecessarily moved all around the formation. This is still the favorite in the NFC North and on a short list of Super Bowl contenders, but they do have a major weakness, one that will likely do them in sooner or later. As with all teams, I’ll have official win/loss records for the Packers after I’ve done all team’s previews.

Prediction: 12-4 1st in NFC North

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