Vikings

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: 2016 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 12 NFL Picks, Lions, NFL Picks, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (6-4) at Detroit Lions (6-4)

The Vikings lost at home to the Lions in upset fashion a few weeks ago, but the good news is comparable teams tend to split the season series, even if the road team pulls the upset in the first game. Divisional road underdogs are 60-33 ATS since 2002 in same season divisional revenge games against an opponent that previously beat them as home favorites and they also pull the upset and win straight up about half the time. These two teams are about as comparable as it gets, as they enter this game with identical records and one spot apart in first down rate differential.

Neither team is as good as their record, as the Vikings rank 22nd and the Lions rank 23rd in first down rate differential. The Vikings have relied on a +13 turnover margin and a +5 return touchdown margin to mask an offense that has been one of the least effective at moving the ball in the league this season, two things that tend to be very tough to rely on and very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. The Lions, meanwhile, have trailed in all 10 games in the 4th quarter and don’t have a single victory by more than a touchdown. Ordinarily, these are both teams I’d bet against, but I obviously can’t bet against both here.

The Vikings have a powerful trend on their side, but they’re also only 2.5 point underdogs, which suggests they’re a little bit better than the Lions. I disagree with that, especially with the Vikings likely being without top receiver Stefon Diggs with injury. It’s only a half point, but 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal so I wish we were getting the full field goal with Minnesota. At 2.5, I’m actually going to take the Lions and hope for a field goal game, but this is a no confidence pick to start the week either way.

Detroit Lions 20 Minnesota Vikings 17

Pick against the spread: Detroit -2.5

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings: 2016 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 11 NFL Picks, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Uncategorized, Vikings

Arizona Cardinals (4-4-1) at Minnesota Vikings (5-4)

When the Vikings were 5-0 on the strength of a +11 turnover margin and a +4 return touchdown margin, two things that tend to be unsustainable, I thought they were the most overrated team in the league. Since then, they’ve lost 4 straight games. Over those 4 games, they were +1 in turnover margin and -1 in return touchdown margin, which made a huge difference and exposed one of the most stagnant offenses in the league. Now at 5-4, they’re not really overrated anymore, but we’re still getting good value with the visiting Arizona Cardinals in this game because the Cardinals have been significantly better than their record this season.

Despite a 4-4-1 record, the Cardinals rank 5th in the NFL with a +42 point differential. They also rank 1st in first down rate differential, which they also led the league in last season when they went 13-3. This year, they could easily be 7-2 if not for special teams mistakes against New England, Seattle, and Los Angeles and they have won the first down rate battle in 8 of 9 games. Despite that, we’re still getting 2 points with them in Minnesota against the Vikings, who rank 19th in first down rate differential. The Vikings are also in a tough spot as they have to turn around and play on Thursday Night Football next week on Thanksgiving. Favorites are just 50-82 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football. The Cardinals are worth betting on this week, though I’d be more confident in them if I knew gametime decision Tyrann Mathieu was going to play, after missing last week with a shoulder injury.

Arizona Cardinals 20 Minnesota Vikings 16 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Arizona +2

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 10 NFL Picks, Commanders, NFL Picks, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (5-3) at Washington Redskins (4-3-1)

When the Vikings were 5-0 on the strength of a +11 turnover margin and a +4 return touchdown margin, two things that tend to be unsustainable, I thought they were the most overrated team in the league. Since then, they’ve lost all 3 games, all in upset fashion, against the Eagles, Bears, and Lions. Over those 3 games, they were +1 in turnover margin and -1 in return touchdown margin, which made a huge difference and exposed one of the most stagnant offenses in the league. They have a great defense, but they’ll never be anything more than an average team unless they can move the ball consistently. In their 3 losses, they scored just 36 points, which could be a sign of things to come.

However, now after those 3 losses, the Vikings aren’t really overrated anymore. In fact, the 4-3-1 Redskins are a little bit more overrated, as they enter this game 26th in first down rate differential, as opposed to 19th for the Vikings. That’s largely thanks to a defense that ranks 30th in first down rate allowed. Their offense ranks 6th in first down rate, but, overall, but they’ve been a mediocre team at best this season. Their only win by more than a touchdown came at home against the Browns, a game in which they didn’t even play that well, allowing 26 first downs. We’re not getting great line value or anything with the Vikings as mere 2.5 point road underdogs in Washington, but they’re the pick in pick ‘em pools.

Washington Redskins 20 Minnesota Vikings 19

Pick against the spread: Minnesota +2.5

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings: 2016 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 9 NFL Picks, Lions, NFL Picks, Uncategorized, Vikings

Detroit Lions (4-4) at Minnesota Vikings (5-2)

Even when the Vikings were 5-0, I thought they were overrated and an average team at best. Their defense is obviously incredible, but their offense was about as ineffective as their defense was effective through the first 5 games of the season. It was just masked by a +11 turnover margin and a +4 return touchdown margin, two things that tend to be very tough to rely on. Sure enough, the Vikings have been +0 in turnover margin and -1 in return touchdown margin over the past 2 games and have lost their first two games of the season. Their loss in Philadelphia was understandable because the Eagles are a solid team, but last week’s 20-10 loss against a supposedly inferior Bears team was embarrassing for the Vikings.

Now they return home and are 6.5 point home favorites over the Detroit Lions. Despite the back-to-back losses, the odds makers are still overrating them. Their offense has fallen to dead last in the NFL in first down percentage and, as good as their defense is (4th), they still rank just 22nd in first down percentage differential on the season. That’s actually one spot behind the Lions, who rank 21st. The Vikings have had a tougher schedule than the Lions, but this line is way too high at 6.5.

The Lions also enter this game in a better injury situation than they’ve had in awhile. Both cornerback Darius Slay and defensive tackle Haloti Ngata are expected to return from 1-game and 2-game absences respectively on defense this week. Before Ngata went down, defensive end Ezekiel Ansah missed 3 games in a row with injury. Linebacker DeAndre Levy remains out with injury, but Slay, Ngata, and Ansah are 3 of the 4 best defensive players on an overall weak defense and they’re playing in the same game for the first time since week 2 this week.

That should help a defense that ranks 28th in first down percentage allowed. Offensively, they have Theo Reddick and Eric Ebron back healthy and those are two of their top pass catchers. Those are just added weapons for an offense that ranks 4th in first down percentage. The Vikings, meanwhile, remain without running back Adrian Peterson, starting tackles Matt Kalil and Andre Smith, and stud defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd, who are out indefinitely. They’ll be joined this week by starting middle linebacker Eric Kendricks and starting left guard Alex Boone.

The Lions are also in a great spot here in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 133-102 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 105-70 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 226-241 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.85 points per game, as opposed to 323-453 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.03 points per game. The Vikings remain overrated, so I’ll bet against them once again.

Minnesota Vikings 20 Detroit Lions 17

Pick against the spread: Detroit +6.5

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: 2016 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 8 NFL Picks, Bears, NFL Picks, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (5-1) at Chicago Bears (1-6)

The Vikings started 5-0, but they were never as good as their record. Their defense has played incredible thus far this season, but their offense has been horrendous. For the first 5 games of the season, their offense’s inability to move the ball was masked by a +11 turnover margin and a +4 return touchdown margin. Both turnover margin and return touchdown margin tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, so this team couldn’t depend on those to mask their offensive flaws forever. Last week, they had a +0 turnover margin and a +1 return touchdown margin and subsequently suffered their first loss of the season, 21-10 to the Eagles in Philadelphia.

On the season, they rank just 18th in first down differential. Their defense has allowed the 5th lowest first down percentage in the season, but their offense ranks just 30th in first down percentage, largely as a result of their inability to run the ball. With starting running back Jerick McKinnon out this week with injury, that figures to continue this week. The Bears are not a great team, ranking 25th in first down percentage, but this line is too high at 5 in favor of the visiting Vikings, especially with the Bears getting healthier. Kyle Long will miss his first game of the season and starters like Eddie Goldman, Kyle Fuller, and Kevin White remain out, but starters like Jay Cutler, Pernell McPhee, Danny Trevathan, and Josh Sitton all have missed time this season and now are healthy and back in the lineup. With about 3 in 10 games decided by 4 or fewer points, I’m pretty confident in the Bears at 5.

Minnesota Vikings 17 Chicago Bears 16

Pick against the spread: Chicago +5

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles: 2016 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 7 NFL Picks, Eagles, NFL Picks, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (5-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-2)

The 5-0 Vikings are the NFL’s final remaining undefeated team. They’ve been impressive overall, but their offense actually has struggled to move the ball effectively for most of the season. On 310 offensive plays, they have just 87 first downs (fewest in the NFL) and 9 touchdowns (2nd fewest in the NFL), a 30.97% first down percentage, 31st in the NFL. As a result, they rank just 16th in first down percentage differential, despite an outstanding defense that allows the 4th lowest first down percentage.

They’re 5-0 largely because of a +11 turnover margin and a +4 return touchdown margin. That’s very impressive, but it’s also unsustainable. In fact, there’s almost no week-to-week correlation in turnover margins; teams that have strong turnover margins in one week are just as likely to have poor turnover margins the following week as any other team. If the Vikings are going to continue winning, they’re going to have to play better and won’t be able to rely on the turnover margin.

They have a tough test this week on the road in Philadelphia and have a good chance to lose their first game of the season. The Eagles were the best team in the league through the first 3 games of the season, defeating Cleveland, Chicago, and Pittsburgh all by double digits, the only team in the league to win each of their first 3 games by double digits. They’ve since lost 2 straight, but their loss in Detroit came by just one point and it’s very possible they got caught looking forward to this game in last week’s 7 point loss in Washington.

Overall on the season, they still rank 17th in first down percentage differential, just one spot behind the Vikings and they should be much more focused and this week. Last week’s loss in Washington moved this line from Philadelphia being favored by a point on the early line to Philadelphia now being 3 point home underdogs. About 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer, so getting a full field goal is more than it seems. Considering I have these teams about even and the Eagles should probably be favored by a full field goal at home, getting the full field goal with them is a great value.

I love to fade significant week-to-week line movements whenever it makes sense and it makes sense here. Also, despite the line movement, the public is still all over Minnesota and I also love fading the public whenever it makes sense as the public always loses money in the long run. The only reason Philadelphia isn’t my pick of the week is they have another tough game on deck against the Cowboys, while the Vikings have a very easy game in Chicago, meaning they have no real upcoming potential distractions, while the Eagles do. Teams are 81-57 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 4+ and the Vikings are 5.5 point favorites in Chicago on the early line. I still like the Eagles a lot at a field goal though, as a field goal is a good amount of protection at home against a team with an underwhelming offense.

Philadelphia Eagles 17 Minnesota Vikings 16 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +3

Confidence: High

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings: 2016 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 5 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Texans, Uncategorized, Vikings

Houston Texans (3-1) at Minnesota Vikings (4-0)

The Vikings are the NFC’s only 4-0 team (the Eagles are 3-0), on the strength of a +10 turnover margin and a +3 return touchdown margin. That’s very impressive, but it’s also unsustainable. In fact, there’s almost no week-to-week correlation in turnover margins; teams that have strong turnover margins in one week are just as likely to have poor turnover margins the following week as any other team. If the Vikings are going to continue winning, they’re going to have to play better and won’t be able to rely on the turnover margin.

The offense is the side of the ball with the most need for improvement, as they rank 30th in offensive first down percentage. Both with and without Adrian Peterson, they’ve struggled to run the ball, largely as a result of an offensive line that has been very shaky and is missing both week 1 starting offensive tackles with injury, Matt Kalil and Andre Smith. They’re not in a good spot to improve offensively this week, as Houston enters with the 2nd best defense in the league in terms of first down percentage allowed. The Texans haven’t faced a tough schedule so far and are not the same unit without JJ Watt, but the Vikings are expected to be without top wide receiver Stefon Diggs with injury. Without him, the Vikings are very weak at the wide receiver position. There’s just not a lot of talent around Sam Bradford on this offense right now.

The Texans, meanwhile, get left tackle Duane Brown back from injury after the talented blindside protector missed the first 4 games of the season with a quad injury. He’ll be a boost to an offense that has ranked 31st in offensive first down percentage thus far this season, though the Vikings’ defense is a very tough matchup. Even without defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd, who is injured, the Vikings rank 6th in first down percentage allowed, despite a pair of early games against the Packers and Panthers.

Both teams have weak offenses and strong defenses and they’re much more even than this line suggests. Especially in what figures to be a low scoring affair, getting 7 points is a dream. I wouldn’t put this line any higher than 4. The Texans are better than the Giants, against whom the Vikings were just 5 point favorites last week with a healthy Stefon DIggs. The one thing that prevents this from being my Pick of the Week is the fact that the Vikings are going into a bye. Big favorites tend to take care of business going into a bye, as home favorites of 6 or more are 61-22 ATS before a bye since 2002. However, usually big home favorites are significantly superior to their opponents, which is not the case in this game, as the Vikings do not deserve to be touchdown favorites. It’s a big play.

Minnesota Vikings 16 Houston Texans 13

Pick against the spread: Houston +7

Confidence: High

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings: 2016 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 4 NFL Picks, Giants, NFL Picks, Uncategorized, Vikings

New York Giants (2-1) at Minnesota Vikings (3-0)

The Vikings are the most overrated of the remaining undefeated teams. They’ve played a tough schedule, including wins over Green Bay and Carolina, but they haven’t won the rate of moving the chains battle in any of their three games. In fact, they enter this game 27th in rate of moving the chains differential. Their defense has played very well, but their 43 first downs are the fewest of any team in the league. They haven’t been able to run the ball all year and lack another receiving threat besides Stefon Diggs. They’ve been winning games thanks in large part to a +8 turnover margin and a +3 margin in return touchdowns. In fact, their offense has only scored 3 touchdowns all year. Half of their touchdowns have come on returns. That’s not sustainable. They have one of the best defenses in the league, but their offense could easily limit them all year.

For that reason, this line is way too high at 5.5. About 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer, so I’d put money on the underdog Giants as long as this line was 4.5 or higher. The Giants are banged up in the secondary, likely missing two of their top-4 cornerbacks, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Eli Apple, as well as starting safety Darian Thompson. However, they are a very deep team at cornerback and Thompson was struggling before getting hurt anyway, so he’s not a huge loss. On top of that, the Giants are a great road team, going 62-41 ATS on the road since 2004. They’re the right side here.

Minnesota Vikings 17 New York Giants 16

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +5.5

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers: 2016 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 3 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Panthers, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (2-0) at Carolina Panthers (1-1)

The Vikings are 2-0, but actually have allowed their opponents to move the chains at a higher rate than they have in both games. Their 2-0 record is largely the result of a +5 turnover margin and a +2 return touchdown margin, two things that tend to be very tough to rely on every week. They’re just 29th in rate of moving the chains differential, despite their record. Sam Bradford seems to have picked up the offense quickly, but he’s a limited passer, without much in the way of weapons aside from Stefon Diggs, and with a below average offensive line in front of him, especially with Matt Kalil going on injured reserve. Running back Adrian Peterson is also going on injured reserve and, even though he wasn’t running well and even though Jerick McKinnon is a very talented backup, Peterson obviously will be missed. On the defensive side of the ball, cornerback Xavier Rhodes is expected to return and make his season debut, but defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd remains out.

The Panthers, meanwhile, are still one of the best teams in the NFL and could easily be 2-0 if not for a Graham Gano missed field goal week 1 in Denver. They’re also in a much better spot, with an easy game on deck (Atlanta), while the Vikings are coming off of a huge home upset victory over the Packers. Teams are 81-58 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 4+ (which the Panthers likely will be next week), while teams are just 49-75 ATS off of a win as home underdogs since 2012. There’s not enough for me to take the Panthers with an sort of confidence this week though, as this line is all the way up to 7, after being at 5.5 last week on the early line, but they’re the pick in pick ‘em pools.

Carolina Panthers 24 Minnesota Vikings 16

Pick against the spread: Carolina -7

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: 2016 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 2 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Packers, Uncategorized, Vikings

Green Bay Packers (1-0) at Minnesota Vikings (1-0)

This is one of the tougher calls of the week for me. Minnesota is still a solid team despite losing Teddy Bridgewater, but they are also missing defensive starters Xavier Rhodes and Sharrif Floyd and quarterback Sam Bradford is going into his first start with the team, after being acquired just two weeks ago. If this line was a field goal, I’d take the Vikings just because 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, but this line is at 2.5 (2 in many places). The Packers are missing top cornerback Sam Shields with a concussion, but are still the significant better team, so I like their chances of winning by at least a field goal in Minnesota, but not enough to be at all confident in them.

Green Bay Packers 23 Minnesota Vikings 20

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -2.5

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]