Vikings

Minnesota Vikings 2014 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Season Previews, Uncategorized, Vikings

Quarterback

The Vikings went 10-6 in 2012 and made a surprise run to the playoffs, after going 3-13 the year before. A team going from 5 wins or fewer to the playoffs isn’t as uncommon as it sounds, as at least one team does so almost every season, but the same is true of the opposite and the Vikings seemed like the most likely team to do so going into 2013. They weren’t the only ones who did so (Houston, Atlanta, and Washington joined them in a bizarre season), but the Vikings did end up going 5-10-1.

There are a number of reasons why that regression should have been predictable. Teams that make big leaps in win totals tend to decline by an average of half the amount the following season. The Vikings also barely had any injuries in 2012 (2nd in adjusted games lost) and they went 5-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less. They also had significant personnel losses like Percy Harvin and Antoine Winfield last off-season. The biggest reason they declined last season though is because Adrian Peterson was, predictably, unable to repeat one of the greatest seasons by a running back in NFL history.

He dragged them into the playoffs in 2012, rushing for 2097 yards and 12 touchdowns on 348 carries (6.03 YPC). That allowed them to make the playoffs even though quarterback Christian Ponder completed 62.1% of his passes for an average of just 6.08 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. Since 2006, 22 teams have averaged 6 yards or fewer per attempt. Of those 21 teams, 20 won 5 or fewer games, none won more than 7 and as a group they averaged 4.0 wins per season and 14.8 points per game. The Vikings won 10 games and averaged 23.7 points per game. I know the Vikings technically averaged 6.08 YPA, but I don’t really think that extra 8/100 of a yard was what got them the extra 6 wins. It was Peterson.

In 2013, Peterson was “just” very good, missing 2 games with injury and rushing for 1266 yards and 10 touchdowns on 279 carries, an average of 4.54 YPC. Christian Ponder raised his YPA to 6.90 YPA, and completed 63.6% of his passes, but threw 9 interceptions to 7 touchdowns and got benched on several occasions, with Matt Cassel finishing the season as the starter. Ponder is now the 3rd string quarterback in Minnesota behind the veteran Cassel and promising 1st round rookie Teddy Bridgewater. Either Cassel or Bridgewater will be the starting quarterback this season (they could both see starts) and it’s unlikely that Ponder sees much meaningful action this year.

Fortunately, the Vikings offense wasn’t bad under Matt Cassel last season, as they moved the chains at a 70.97% rate, in the 7 games in which Cassel played the majority of the snaps, as opposed to 70.25% in their other 9 games. It’s not a huge difference, but it is a difference and it’s even more impressive when you consider that Peterson was either out or limited in each of the Vikings’ final 4 games (all of which Cassel started), combining to rush for 58 yards on 18 carries in those 4 games. Cassel, on the season, completed 60.2% of his passes for an average of 7.11 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. He was Pro Football Focus’ 28th ranked quarterback last season out of 42 eligible, while Ponder was 35th.

Cassel is obviously not a long-term solution, going into his age 32 season, but he’s a decent placeholder for promising rookie Teddy Bridgewater, who could easily end up just winning the starting job in training camp. Bridgewater fell to 32 because of concerns about his size and arm strength, but he was a dominant collegiate player in the intermediate part of the field and he’s NFL ready after running a fairly complex offense at the University of Louisville. Cassel’s numbers last season were better than his career averages, which is concerning (59.0%, 6.66 YPA, 93 touchdowns, and 66 interceptions), but part of that is also just that the Vikings have a surprisingly strong offensive supporting cast around the quarterback. Bridgewater, if he’s ready to start, will enjoy the benefits of that strong supporting cast as well.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

The obvious part of this strong supporting cast is the running back Adrian Peterson, but I’m going to start with something less obvious, which is that the Vikings have a strong offensive line. The best player on the offensive line is center John Sullivan, who might be the best center in the NFL. He had a rough start to his career as a starter, after getting drafted in the 6th round in 2008, but he’s been a top-3 center on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 3 seasons, the only center in the game who can say so. He’s developed into a fantastic interior offensive lineman and should continue to play very well this season.

Phil Loadholt is also a dominant offensive lineman. The 6-8 343 pounder is solely a right tackle, but he’s still a huge asset for them, dominating in run blocking and holding up well in pass protection. He’s been a 5-year starter for them since being drafted in the 2nd round in 2009, making 78 of 80 starts, and he’s graded out above average in 4 out of 5 seasons, including each of the last 3 seasons. He’s gotten better in each of the last 3 seasons, going from Pro Football Focus’ 26th ranked offensive tackle in 2011, to 21st in 2012, to 11th last season, the best season of his career. He should have another strong season in 2014.

Right guard Brandon Fusco also had a great season last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked guard. He doesn’t have a history of doing that kind of thing though, as the 2011 6th round pick played 26 snaps as a rookie and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 73rd ranked guard out of 81 eligible in 2012 in his first year as a starter. Fusco could easily have another strong season in his 4th year in the league in 2014, also his contract year, but he remains a one year wonder.

While Fusco broke out last year, left tackle Matt Kalil regressed, after the 2013 4th overall pick had a strong rookie season. He was Pro Football Focus’ 21st ranked offensive tackle in 2012, but he was their 51st ranked offensive tackle out of 76 eligible in 2013. He dealt with a knee injury throughout the season, which he blames for his struggles. He had off-season surgery on his right knee and is expected to be healthier for this season. A return to form for the talented young blindside protector would be a big boost to this already strong offensive line and would counteract any regression that Fusco might show.

The only issue the Vikings had on the offensive line last season was left guard, where Charlie Johnson was the starter. Johnson graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 52nd ranked guard out of 81 eligible, below average. This is nothing new for him as he’s graded out below average in each of the last 7 seasons, struggling at both left tackle and left guard. Now going into his age 30 season, things are unlikely to get any better. He’ll be pushed for his starting guard by Jeff Baca, a 2013 6th round pick who played 4 snaps as a rookie. Baca might not be an upgrade though. It’s a position of weakness on any otherwise very strong offensive line. They were Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked offensive line in terms of run blocking in 2013 and their 7th ranked offensive line in terms of pass blocking.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

Adrian Peterson is obviously a big part of their strong offensive supporting cast. He didn’t repeat the 2000 rushing yard season he had in 2012, but he still impressed, rushing for 1266 yards and 10 touchdowns on 279 carries, an average of 4.54 YPC. In his career, he’s rushed for 10,115 yards (already 27th all-time) and 86 touchdowns on 2033 carries, an average of 4.98 YPC. He wasn’t Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked running back in terms of run grade last season, like he was in 2012, but he still ranked 4th in that aspect. In the past 4 seasons, he’s ranked 2nd, 1st, 1st, and 4th respectively in that aspect.

However, his weakness is that he struggles both as a receiver and a pass protector, grading out below average in the first aspect in 6 of the 7 seasons he’s been in the league and in the second aspect in 5 of the 7 seasons he’s been in the league. He’s caught 206 passes for 1697 yards and 5 touchdowns in 103 career games. The Vikings lost backup Toby Gerhart this off-season to free agency so they used a 3rd round pick on Jerick McKinnon, who will play a significant passing down role as a rookie. McKinnon has reportedly been very impressive in off-season practices, even being called their best rookie by Adrian Peterson himself.

McKinnon will also help take some of the load off of Peterson over the next few seasons as he ages. Peterson is going into his age 29 season with 2033 career carries. He’s one of the all-time greats and will be enshrined in Canton someday, but the average top-20 all-time rusher (in terms of yards) has their last 1000 yard season at 30-31 on average, plays another 2 seasons after that on average, and averages 567 yards and 4 touchdowns on 151 carries (3.75 YPC). Peterson should have another couple of seasons as a dominant back left in him, but it’s something to begin taking notice of.

Grade: A

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

The Vikings had a thin receiving corps in 2012 and then they lost Percy Harvin, which made things even thinner, so they brought in veteran Greg Jennings through free agency and Cordarrelle Patterson as a 2013 1st round pick last off-season. Jennings was dominant in Green Bay from 2007-2011, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 31st, 24th, 17th, 16th, and 16th ranked wide receiver on Pro Football Focus in those 5 years respectively, while averaging 2.12 yards per route run over that stretch (5532 yards on 2604 routes).

However, he missed 3 games with injury in 2011 and then another 8 in 2012 and that seemed to sap his abilities. He averaged just 1.28 yards per route run in 2012 and, though he was healthier last year, he averaged just 1.62 yards per route run and was Pro Football Focus’ 44th ranked wide receiver. He caught 68 passes on 101 targets (67.3%) for 804 yards and 4 touchdowns last season. The drop off in quarterback play from Aaron Rodgers to Ponder/Cassel obviously had a lot to do with this, but he’s not the same player as he used to be. Now he’s going into his age 31 season so, while he could easily have a solid year again, he’s not the #1 receiver they expected him to be when they signed him to a 5-year, 45 million dollar deal with 17.8 million guaranteed after the 2012 season.

Cordarrelle Patterson, meanwhile, ended up grading out higher than Jennings, ranking as Pro Football Focus’ 32nd ranked wide receiver. However, much of that was because of what he did as a runner and he actually graded out below average in pass grade. The 29th pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, Patterson flashed his incredible athleticism, rushing for 158 yards and 3 touchdowns on 12 carries and returning 43 kickoffs for 1393 yards and 2 touchdowns. He was Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked wide receiver in terms of run grade and their #1 ranked kick returner.

He also averaged 6.4 yards per catch after the catch and broke 10 tackles on 45 catches, but he showed serious issues with route running, catching just 10 passes farther than 10 yards downfield and just 3 passes farther than 20 yards downfield. He was limited primarily to short routes and screens and also dropped 5 passes. He caught 45 passes on 72 targets (62.5%) for 469 yards on 292 routes run (1.61 yards per route run). He’s expected to have a bigger role in his 2nd year in the league and he has the natural ability to have a breakout year, but he’s only going into his age 23 season so there should be no surprises if he continues to be raw.

Jarius Wright, a 2012 4th round pick, could also have a bigger role this season. He’s played 636 snaps in 2 seasons in the league, including 443 routes run, and has averaged 1.68 yards per route run, catching 48 passes for 744 yards and 5 touchdowns. He could be the 3rd receiver this year. Gains in playing time by youngsters Patterson and Wright would come at the loss of veteran Jerome Simpson, who the Vikings brought back on a deal close to the veteran’s minimum this off-season. He’s had a variety of off-the-field issues and could be facing a suspension of up to 4 games to start the 2014 season after a recent DUI arrest.

He’s also a one dimensional deep threat who doesn’t catch a high percentage of his targets. Since being drafted in the 2nd round in 2008, Simpson has caught just 54.1% of his targets for an average of 1.52 yards per route run and only graded out positive once in terms of pass catching grade. His worst season was in 2011, when he was Pro Football Focus’ 110th ranked wide receiver out of 115 eligible, catching 52.1% of his targets for an average of 1.28 yards per route run in Cincinnati with Andy Dalton. The 6-2 190 pounder is a good blocker and can reel in some deep passes, but that’s about it and he can’t stay out of trouble off-the-field either.

Kyle Rudolph is the tight end and someone who could have a big breakout year. The 2011 2nd round pick was Pro Football Focus’ 12th ranked tight end in each of his first 2 seasons in the league in 2011 and 2012, but that was largely because of his blocking abilities, both as a run blocker and a pass protector. He averaged just 1.11 yards per route run and ran just 30.1% of his routes from off the line. In 2013, he looked on his way to a much better receiving year, as he averaged 1.34 yards per route run, running about 40.3% of his routes from off the line. Unfortunately, he went down for the season with a foot injury after 8 games.

However, now he returns for his contract year and tight end guru Norv Turner is coming in. Rudolph has slimmed down to 6-6 260 from 275 and will be used more as a pass catcher and line up all over the formation in passing situations, much like Turner did with Antonio Gates in San Diego and Jordan Cameron in Cleveland. It wouldn’t be ridiculous to expect him to average 1.50 yards per route run (especially with better quarterback play) and for him to be 2nd on the team in receiving, while providing strong blocking on running plays as well.

Rhett Ellison, meanwhile, will be the #2 blocking tight end. He’s lined up all over the formation over his first 2 years in the league since being drafted in the 4th round in 2012 and he’s continued to be the strong point of attack blocker he was in college at USC. He was Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked fullback in 2012 and 8th ranked in 2013. He’ll be more of a traditional tight end this season, as he was in college, and come in for two-tight end sets and help them in the running game. He’ll likely continue to not provide much in the passing game though, but that’s not his job. The rest of the receiving corps is sneaky solid. If the Vikings can get good quarterback play, they could be a strong offense.

Grade: B-

Defensive Line

The Vikings’ offense was actually pretty decent last season, especially with Cassel on the field, but their defense was horrible, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 75.91% rate, 30th in the NFL. The Vikings fired head coach Leslie Frazier, who has a background in defense, and replaced him with Mike Zimmer, one of the best defensive coordinators of the decade and a guy whose shot at a head coaching job was long overdue. There are plenty of great coordinators who don’t do well as head coach, but, at the very least, Zimmer should help this defense improve in his first season with the team.

The Vikings clearly wanted to add to their defensive line this off-season and get younger and more talented. Over 30 veterans like Jared Allen and Kevin Williams are gone and the Vikings added 4 players who could see snaps on the defensive line this season. Their biggest free agent acquisition, in terms of money, was defensive tackle Linval Joseph, who they gave a 5-year 31.5 million dollar deal to come over from the Giants. Linval Joseph, a 2010 2nd round pick, was a 3-year starter with the Giants from 2011-2013.

He didn’t have a great 3 years in New York and he was probably overpaid, but he got better every season, grading out 60th in 2011, 36th in 2012, and 24th in 2013. He’s still only going into his age 26 season so he could be even better this season. He could be an upgrade over Kevin Williams, who was Pro Football Focus’ 29th ranked defensive tackle last season. Joseph will start inside next to Sharrif Floyd. Floyd, the 23rd overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, struggled as a rookie on 472 snaps, but could be better in his 2nd year in the league.

The biggest contract the Vikings gave out this off-season was to Everson Griffen, who they re-signed to a 5-year, 42.5 million dollar deal this off-season. Griffen has potential and could blossom in a bigger role this season with the declining Jared Allen (who graded out below average last season) gone, but this was a very speculative deal because he’s still a projection to that role. I also don’t know who else would have paid him that kind of money.

Everson Griffen has one career start. It’s not quite as bad as that sounds because he’s been a talented reserve and he has upside. However, the Vikings really seem to be overestimating his upside. Sure, he has 14 sacks over the past 2 seasons despite being a reserve, but he’s actually played as much as some starters in terms of pass rush snaps with 423 pass rush snaps played in 2012 and 449 pass rush snaps played in 2013. When you consider that, he doesn’t seem as efficient as he once did.

He only ranked 29th out of 62 eligible in pass rush efficiency among 4-3 defensive ends in 2012 and only ranked 21st out of 52 eligible in pass rush efficiency among 4-3 defensive ends in 2013. He’s graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 30th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2012 and 20th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2013. He’ll have a much bigger role this season (probably 700-800 snaps) and the 6-3 273 pounder will play outside in base packages and move inside in sub packages.

Anthony Barr, meanwhile, will be the defensive end in sub packages when Griffen goes inside. Barr was the 9th pick overall in the 2014 NFL Draft and will play a significant role even as a rookie. The Vikings want him to play in the Von Miller role, playing outside linebacker in base packages and moving down to defensive end and rushing the passer from the edge in sub packages. The 6-5 255 pounder is incredibly athletic, but he was playing running back as recently as 2011 so he’s still really raw on defense. He compares to Aaron Maybin and Jerry Hughes and, while Hughes eventually put it together, neither of them did much as a rookie so Barr might not have much of an impact, despite his high draft status. The Vikings obviously really like him though, which is worth mentioning.

Along with Barr and Joseph, the Vikings also brought in Corey Wootton and Scott Crichton this off-season to play rotational roles on the defensive line. Wootton can play both inside and outside, much like Griffen, at 6-6 270. The 2010 4th round pick has graded out below average in all 4 seasons he’s been in the league though. Meanwhile, Crichton is a 3rd round rookie and might not be able to have much of an impact in his first season in the league.

Brian Robison remains as the other starter. A late bloomer, the 2007 4th round pick has graded out above average in each of the past 3 seasons as a starter, grading out 26th in 2011, 13th in 2012, and 18th in 2013. He’s also averaged 936 snaps a season over the past 3 seasons, not missing a single game, but he’ll probably have his snap count down to the 700-800 range this season because of the added depth the Vikings have on the defensive line. That could be good for him as he goes into his age 31 season in 2014. The Vikings overpaid Joseph and Griffen and Anthony Barr is still really raw, but this is a younger, deeper defensive line than last season. There’s talent here for the talented Mike Zimmer to play with and coach up.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

Things aren’t as good in the linebacking corps. I mentioned Anthony Barr and how he’ll play a base package outside linebacker role. Chad Greenway will be the every down outside linebacker opposite him. The issue is that Greenway is going into his age 31 season and really struggles in coverage. He was Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst ranked 4-3 outside linebacker last season and the worst at his position in coverage, allowing 829 receiving yards, easily the most at his position. He also missed a league leading 21 tackles. He used to be solid, but those days are behind him and probably not coming back as he goes into his 30s. The last season in which he graded out above average was 2010.

At middle linebacker, it’ll be a position battle between Jasper Brinkley and Audie Cole for the starting job to replace Erin Henderson, who was let go for off-the-field reasons. Henderson graded out above average last season, though he did struggle in coverage once again. Cole might be the favorite right now. The 2012 7th round pick has only played 333 career snaps, but he played 332 of them last season and he was pretty decent, grading out right about average. Obviously he’s a projection to an every down middle linebacker role, but he has potential.

Brinkley, meanwhile, was actually their starting middle linebacker in 2012, but that didn’t go well as he graded out 50th out of 53 eligible middle linebacker on Pro Football Focus, particularly struggling in coverage. He then went to Arizona and now is back in Minnesota. He was a 5th round pick in 2009 and has played just a combined 443 snaps in the other 4 seasons he’s been in the league, including 210 last season. He’s never really shown himself to be a starting caliber player, now going into his age 29 season, so they might as well try Audie Cole. Unless Cole has a breakout year, they’ll have serious issues at linebacker.

Grade: C

Secondary

The Vikings also made a big free agent acquisition in the secondary, signing Captain Munnerlyn to a 3-year, 11.25 million dollar deal at cornerback, coming over from Carolina. The undersized Captain Munnerlyn (5-8 186) has been a late bloomer in his career, after struggling mightily early in his career after getting drafted in the 7th round in 2009. He graded out below average in 2 of his first 3 seasons in the league, with his worst season coming in 2009, when he graded out 99th out of 107 eligible cornerbacks.

Very similar to the way the similarly sized Tim Jennings developed, Munnerlyn has emerged as an above average cornerback in the NFL. He had a solid 2012 year, grading out just about average, and the Panthers wisely brought him back on a cheap one year deal for 2013 after the market devalued him. Munnerlyn ended up being a big part of the reason why the Panthers had such a strong defense, doing his best Antoine Winfield impression (showing in coverage on the slot and the outside, as a run stopper, and as a blitzer) grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 10th ranked cornerback, though “only” their 22nd ranked cornerback in terms of pure coverage grade.

Munnerlyn is now with the Vikings, Antoine Winfield’s old team, a team that missed Winfield significantly last season. Munnerlyn does his best coverage work on the slot, but he can also play outside and he’s above average as a run stopper and blitzer for a cornerback. He’ll presumably start outside and move inside to the slot in sub packages in the role in which Adam Jones thrived under Zimmer in Cincinnati. He’ll be an asset for them as an addition to this once miserable secondary.

Xavier Rhodes will be the opposite starter. He was the 25th overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft and flashed as a rookie on 686 snaps, grading out slightly above average. Cornerbacks tend to take a year or two to get adjusted to the NFL so his rookie year was pretty impressive. He allowed 56.6% completion on the season and was especially good in his final 4 games before missing 3 games with injury, allowing 16 of 32 (50.0%) for 202 yards (6.31 YPA), 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. He could have a breakout year in his 2nd year in the NFL, especially with Mike Zimmer coming to town, but there are obviously no guarantees.

The issue is the 3rd cornerback. Josh Robinson is expected to serve in that role, playing outside in sub packages when Munnerlyn plays on the slot. He was Pro Football Focus’ 109th ranked cornerback out of 113 eligible as a 3rd round rookie in 2012, grading out 2nd worst among cornerbacks in pure coverage grade. He wasn’t much better in 2013, grading out 99th out of 110 eligible. In 2 seasons in the league, he’s allowed 77.9% completion for an average of 8.61 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. I don’t expect much more from him in his 3rd season in the league.

The Vikings should also be getting a boost from the return of Harrison Smith at safety 8 games with a turf toe injury last season. He struggled last season, only playing 5 games before the injury, not enough to establish himself and then being limited upon his return, grading out below average on 537 snaps. He could easily have a bounce back year this year if healthy, after playing well as a 1st round rookie in 2012. The 29th overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, Smith graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 19th ranked safety that season. He should be an upgrade over Andrew Sendejo, who graded out slightly below average as an injury replacement this season.

Sendejo will compete with Jamarca Sanford for the other starting safety job. Sanford was alright last season, grading out 35th among safeties on Pro Football Focus, slightly above average (Sendejo was 45th). Sanford was Pro Football Focus’ 24th ranked safety in 2012, though he graded out as the worst safety in the league in 2011, in his first year as a starter. Sendejo, meanwhile, played a combined 3 snaps from 2010-2012, after going undrafted in 2010. Sanford should win that starting job, while Sendejo settles in as a solid 3rd safety and depth player. The defense, overall, should be improved under Mike Zimmer, but they still have a lot of issues and places where they lack talent.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

As I mentioned in the opening, teams that have big win increases (like the Vikings did from 3 to 10 in 2012) tend to regress by about half the amount of wins they improved the previous season. The Vikings went from 10-6 to 5-10-1. However, the opposite is also true and the Vikings could easily be an improved team this season. Christian Ponder is no longer their starting quarterback and either Matt Cassel or Teddy Bridgewater should be an upgrade. They have a strong supporting cast on offense to help them out, which is good because one is a veteran stopgap and one is an inexperienced rookie.

Defensively, they probably won’t be very good, but they should be improved over last season. They’ve added some talent. They’re getting players back from injury. They have young players that could be improved this season. And, most importantly, they added defensive mastermind Mike Zimmer as their head coach. They still have a lot of issues on that side of the ball, because they have positions where they really lack talent and they don’t have any standout defensive stars, but they’ll be improved defensively and as a team as a whole. I think, at the very least, they’ll be a slightly improved team over last season and they have the potential to be a lot better if Teddy Bridgewater can have a strong rookie year. I’ll be conservative with their projection right now. I’ll have an official wins prediction for them after I finish every team’s preview.

Prediction: 6-10 4th in NFC North

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Minnesota Vikings sign DT Linval Joseph

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized, Vikings

Linval Joseph, a 2nd round pick, has been a 3-year starter with the Giants from 2011-2013, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 21st ranked defensive tackle in each of the last 2 seasons. Only 5 other players have graded out higher than him in both seasons (Gerald McCoy, Ndamukong Suh, Jurrell Casey, Geno Atkins, Marcell Dareus). Joseph is better against the run than he is rushing the passer, but he graded out above average in both facets of the game in each of the past two seasons. He’s also one of the youngest players hitting free agency this off-season, going into only his age 26 season.

This contract (5 years, 31.5 million) has an average annual salary of 6.3 million, which puts him 9th among defensive tackles in terms of annual salary. That seems a little rich, but it’s certainly better than the 5 year, 33 million dollar deal the Falcons gave Paul Soliai this off-season. Soliai is an inferior and significantly older player and his deal has more guaranteed money as well (14 million to 12.5 million). Joseph’s deal doesn’t have any guaranteed money after the 2nd season so it could just end up being a 2 year, 13 million dollar deal if he doesn’t work out. There’s also a chance he continues to improve as a player as he goes into his age 26 season. He’s not even really in his prime yet. For a Vikings team in need of defensive tackle help next to Sharrif Floyd, this was a decent move.

Grade: B

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Minnesota Vikings sign CB Captain Munnerlyn

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized, Vikings

The undersized Captain Munnerlyn (5-8 186) has been a late bloomer in his career, after struggling mightily early in his career after getting drafted in the 7th round in 2009. Very similar to the way the similarly sized Tim Jennings developed, Munnerlyn has emerged as an above average cornerback in the NFL. He had a solid 2012 year and the Panthers wisely brought him back on a cheap one year deal for 2013 after the market devalued him. Munnerlyn ended up being a big part of the reason why the Panthers had such a strong defense, doing his best Antoine Winfield impression (showing in coverage on the slot and the outside, as a run stopper, and as a blitzer) grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked cornerback, though “only” their 25th ranked cornerback in terms of pure coverage grade.

Now Munnerlyn goes to Antoine Winfield’s old team, the Vikings, who struggled mightily defensively last year in the first year of Winfield’s retirement. Munnerlyn does his best coverage work on the slot, but he can also play outside and he’s above average as a run stopper and blitzer for a cornerback. He’ll presumably start opposite Xavier Rhodes and move inside to the slot in sub packages in the role in which Adam Jones thrived in Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer’s system when Zimmer was the defensive coordinator in Cincinnati. I like the schematic fit and I like the price (11.25 million over 3 years with 4.45 million guaranteed) for the Vikings to fill this need. This was a smart move.

Grade: A

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Minnesota Vikings re-sign DE Everson Griffen

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized, Vikings

This move was made right before the start of free agency and it was a real head scratcher. However, I’ve held off on grading it until now because there was a chance that the increased salary cap meant we might see a lot of head scratching deals this off-season and I like to grade on a curve and grade moves against each other. That hasn’t been the case. When you compare this deal (42.5 million over 5 years) to the deals received by LaMarr Houston (35 million over 5 years), Michael Bennett (4 years, 28.5 million) and Michael Johnson (43.75 million over 5 years), it easily looks like one of the worst moves of the off-season.

Michael Johnson was Pro Football Focus’ 13th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2012 and 4th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2013. LaMarr Houston was Pro Football Focus’ 19th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2011, 9th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2012, and 11th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2013. Michael Bennett was Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2011, 7th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2012, and 5th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2013. Meanwhile, Everson Griffen has one career start. It’s not quite as bad as that sounds because he’s been a talented reserve and he has upside.

However, those supporting this deal seem to be overestimating his upside. Sure, he has 14 sacks over the past 2 seasons despite being a reserve, but he’s actually played as much as some starters in terms of pass rush snaps with 423 pass rush snaps played in 2012 and 449 pass rush snaps played in 2013. All of a sudden, he doesn’t seem as efficient as he once did. He only ranked 29th out of 62 eligible in pass rush efficiency among 4-3 defensive ends in 2012 and only ranked 21st out of 52 eligible in pass rush efficiency among 4-3 defensive ends in 2013.

He’s graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 36th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2012 and 19th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2013. With Jared Allen likely gone, I said in the Vikings’ off-season preview that I expected him to re-sign with the Vikings on a multi-year deal that paid him like a starting caliber player because I knew he had upside. I expected him to get something like 25 million over 5 years. That being said, the notion that he will suddenly become a dominant defensive lineman because he’s now a starter is absurd. And even if he somehow does, I don’t know who else would have paid him 42.5 million over 5 years with 20 million dollars guaranteed. They overpaid him by about 17.5 million dollars over 5 years.

Grade: F

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Minnesota Vikings 2014 Off-Season Report

stevenlourie 2014 Off-Season Reports, Uncategorized, Vikings

2013 Recap

In 2012, the Vikings rode a historic season from Adrian Peterson all the way to the post-season. In 2013, Peterson went back to being just very good and the Vikings ended up winning just 5 games. Peterson rushed for 831 fewer yards in 2013 than 2012. 1266 yards and 10 touchdowns on 279 carries is definitely not a bad season, especially considering Peterson missed 2 meaningless games with injury, but because he wasn’t averaging 6.0 yards per carry, it exposed their quarterbacks.

Christian Ponder was benched after 3 games for Matt Cassel and then returned to the starting job after mid-season pickup Josh Freeman bombed his only start of the season. Ponder then played until he got hurt and then Matt Cassel took over for the rest of the season. Cassel attempted 254 passes on that quarterback carousel. Christian Ponder attempted 239 and Josh Freeman attempted 53. All in all, Minnesota quarterbacks completed 59.5% of their passes for an average of 6.68 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions, a quarterback rating of 76.0 that ranked 9th worst in the NFL.

In spite of that, their offense wasn’t as much of the problem and the reason why they declined this season, as their defense was horrible. In terms of rate of moving the chains against, they ranked 30th, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 75.91% rate. Their offense wasn’t great, ranking 19th and moving the chains at 70.56% rate, but they weren’t the biggest problem. They’re a quarterback away from being a very solid offense, with a great offensive line and running game and a solid set of weapons in the receiving game. I expect them to target quarterbacks early in the draft, but they are picking 8th with a bunch of quarterback needy teams ahead of them so they might have to move up to get their guy.

So what happened to their defense? Well, they suffered more injuries than they did in 2012, when they barely suffered any injuries. The loss of secondary leader Harrison Smith was the most notable one. They also missed Antoine Winfield, who played great in 2012, but left as a cap casualty and eventually retired. Other 30+ veterans did not play up to their standards, including Kevin Williams, Jared Allen, Brian Robison, and Chad Greenway.

One year after he was being touted as a Coach of the Year candidate, the Vikings fired Leslie Frazier after the season, in part because of the struggles of the defense, which is his specialty. He was replaced with another defensive coach in Mike Zimmer and he should be an upgrade. Zimmer has been an above average defensive coordinator for 14 years in the NFL, with the Cowboys, Falcons, and Bengals, but didn’t get his first head coaching job until now, when he’s going into his age 58 season, a testament to the NFL’s obsession with offensive coaches. 2013 was perhaps Zimmer’s best season as his Bengals were one of the best defenses in the NFL, despite losing Geno Atkins and Leon Hall to injury.

Zimmer will get the most out of the Vikings’ defense, just like he did with the Bengals’ defense. They don’t have nearly as much talent, especially since they could be undergoing a veteran purge, but Zimmer will do the best he can. I’m very excited to see what he can do with 2013 first round picks Xavier Rhodes and Sharrif Floyd, who will have bigger roles in 2014, as well as Harrison Smith, who had a strong rookie year in 2012, but missed most of 2013 with injury. Teams that have a big regression in win total tend to improve about half the total the following season. Given that, we could see the Vikings back in contention next season, especially if they can get the quarterback position right.

Positional Needs

Quarterback

Christian Ponder was benched after 3 games for Matt Cassel and then returned to the starting job after mid-season pickup Josh Freeman bombed his only start of the season. Ponder then played until he got hurt and then Matt Cassel took over for the rest of the season. Cassel attempted 254 passes on that quarterback carousel. Christian Ponder attempted 239 and Josh Freeman attempted 53. All in all, Minnesota quarterbacks completed 59.5% of their passes for an average of 6.68 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions, a quarterback rating of 76.0 that ranked 9th worst in the NFL. I expect them to target quarterbacks early in the draft, but they are picking 8th with a bunch of quarterback needy teams ahead of them so they might have to move up to get their guy.

Cornerback

The Vikings took Xavier Rhodes in the first round in 2013, but they still need help at the position. Chris Cook and Marcus Sherels are both free agents and both struggled this season. Cook has had an inconsistent tenure in Minnesota, after being drafted in the 2nd round in 2010, which has included off the field problems. Sherels, meanwhile, is much more valuable as a return man than as a defensive back. Josh Robinson will still be under contract, but he’s been miserable in two seasons since being drafted in the 3rd round in 2012, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked cornerback in terms of coverage grade in 2012 and 12th worst in terms of coverage grade in 2013. He shouldn’t be considered an option to start on the outside opposite Rhodes, so that’s a big need of theirs.

Defensive Tackle

The Vikings also took Sharrif Floyd in the first round in 2013, but defensive tackle remains a position of need. Kevin Williams and Fred Evans are both free agents this off-season and both are over 30, going into their age 34 and age 31 seasons respectively in 2014. Letroy Guion, meanwhile, is a mediocre at best player who could easily be a cap casualty this off-season. Floyd can be a replacement for Kevin Williams long-term, but they still need a long-term replacement for Pat Williams, who they have yet to replace since he retired following the 2011 season. This is something they need to address.

Defensive End

The Vikings have a bunch of free agents this off-season and things are no different at defensive end. Brian Robison was locked up on an extension this season, as he goes into his age 31 season, but Jared Allen and Everson Griffen are both free agents. Allen is going into his age 32 season anyway. My guess is they’d prefer to lock up Griffen, who is much younger and has thrived as a rotational player over the past few seasons, but it’s unlikely they’re going to be able to bring both back. They need to add depth at the very least.

Outside Linebacker

Chad Greenway used to be a great player, but he hasn’t graded out above average on Pro Football Focus since 2010 and last season he was Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst ranked 4-3 outside linebacker, struggling in coverage and against the run and missing a league leading 21 tackles. He’ll make 6.5 million in 2014 and count for 8.4 million on the cap, in his age 31 season, so the Vikings could definitely cut him, which would free up 4.8 million in cap space. They may also keep him as a veteran presence if they don’t feel they need the cap space, but even if they don’t, he won’t be around much longer. They also may need to add someone opposite him as Marvin Mitchell is a free agent, though the two-down linebacker spot is much easier to fill.

Guard

The Vikings quietly have one of the best offensive lines in football. The only hole is left guard, where Charlie Johnson is a below average starter. Fortunately, he’s a free agent so the Vikings can use this opportunity to upgrade the position and improve even further on their dominant offensive line. After the quarterback position, this is their only real hole on offense.

Middle Linebacker

Erin Henderson is a decent starting linebacker, but he was arrested for DUI twice this season. He was benched following the first one and is now expected to be cut. The Vikings would save 2 million both in cash and on the cap by letting him go before his contract year next season. They’d need to replace him in that scenario, though Audie Cole, who flashed in limited action this season, could be a cheap internal option.

Punt Returner

I mentioned under the cornerback section that Marcus Sherels is a free agent. In spite of his issues in coverage, they need to bring him back because of his dominance as a punt returner. He was 2nd in the NFL in punt return average, returning 22 punts for 335 yards and 1 touchdown, an average of 15.2 yards per punt return. In his career, he averages 10.3 yards per punt return. If he isn’t brought back, they’ll need to replace him.

Key Free Agents

DE Jared Allen

Jared Allen is has declined in Pro Football Focus’ rankings in every season since 2011, when he was Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked 4-3 defensive end. That makes sense as he’s getting older and he has played a significant snap total in almost every season in the league. He’s going into his age 32 season in 2014 and the Vikings don’t seem like they’re going to bring him back. Given the cold market that met Dwight Freeney and John Abraham last off-season, similar pass rushers in similar stages of their careers, Allen will probably have to settle for a short-term deal, hopefully with a contender.

DE Everson Griffen

Everson Griffen has played a significant role as a rotational player in the last two seasons, playing 623 snaps in 2012 and 717 snaps in 2013 and grading out about average. He’s going into the prime of his career, going into his age 27 season in 2014, and the Vikings, in a re-build, are much more likely to bring him back than Jared Allen. That would lead to a large role for him and he could thrive in Mike Zimmer’s defense. Expect him to re-sign with the Vikings on a multi-year deal that pays him like a starting caliber player.

DT Kevin Williams

Kevin Williams has been with the Vikings for 11 seasons since they drafted him 9th overall in 2003, but it appears that his tenure with the team is up as he heads into his age 34 season. The Vikings have an in-house replacement for his 3-technique role in Sharrif Floyd, a 1st round pick in 2013. He could retire, but he’s still got something left in the tank, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 27th ranked defensive tackle last season. He’ll probably be looking at short-term deals this off-season.

RB Toby Gerhart

Toby Gerhart was a premium pick in the 2nd round in 2010, but has served purely as Adrian Peterson’s backup in 4 seasons. He’s been impressive when given a chance, rushing for 1305 yards and 5 touchdowns on 276 carries, 4.5 yards per carry, while adding 77 catches for 600 yards and 3 touchdowns through the air. He could draw some interest as a lead back going into his age 27 season on the open market this off-season.

CB Marcus Sherels

Marcus Sherels isn’t much of defensive player. He had played 384 snaps in 2 seasons from 2011-2012 and this season, when he saw significant action, playing 545 snaps, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 20th worst ranked cornerback in terms of coverage grade. That being said, they need to bring him back because of his dominance as a punt returner. He was 2nd in the NFL in punt return average, returning 22 punts for 335 yards and 1 touchdown, an average of 15.2 yards per punt return. In his career, he averages 10.3 yards per punt return.

CB Chris Cook

Chris Cook had a very disappointing 4 years in Minnesota after they drafted him in the 2nd round in 2010. He played just 34 of a possible 64 games, for a variety of reasons, including injuries and off the field issues. And while he flashed in coverage from time to time, he was terrible in 2013, his most significant season in terms of snap count. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 95th ranked cornerback out of 110 eligible, allowing 9 touchdowns to no interceptions and 71.2% completion. Only Justin Rogers allowed a higher QB rating. It’s easy to see why the Vikings drafted Cook so high. He has a rare combination of size and speed at 6-2 212 and at his best, he can be pretty damn good. My guess is his tenure in Minnesota is done and he’ll have to settle for one year prove it deals like Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Aqib Talib did last off-season.

G Charlie Johnson

A 6th round pick in 2006, Charlie Johnson has been a starter for quite a few years, playing both left guard and left tackle, dating back to his time in Indianapolis with the Colts. He’s never been particularly good though as he struggled to protect Peyton Manning’s blindside, arguably the easiest blindside to protect, and then in Minnesota he got replaced by 1st round pick Matt Kalil and moved back to left guard. He’s the weakness on an otherwise strong Minnesota offensive line and the Vikings should take this opportunity to upgrade the position as he goes into his age 30 season. As for Johnson, he’s probably looking at one year deals without guarantees of a starting job.

WR Jerome Simpson

Simpson had a career high 726 receiving yards on 48 catches this season, though he did score just once. Still, he needed to have that kind of season after his miserable 2012 season, in which he struggled through injuries and caught just 26 passes for 274 yards. That being said, anyone signing him should know that he caught fewer than 50% of his targets not just last season, but in 2011, his other big receiving year (50/725/4). He also has a history of off the field problems. He’ll be greeted with a stronger market this year than last year, but he might still be looking at one year deals. The Vikings might be wise to bring him back cheap as a depth receiver.

OLB Marvin Mitchell

Marvin Mitchell was the 3rd linebacker in Minnesota this season, but only played 310 snaps. He’s never played more than 361 snaps in a season since being drafted in the 7th round in 2007 and he’s already going into his age 30 season. He’s almost definitely looking at one year deals this off-season. He wasn’t bad in his role last season so it might make sense for the Vikings to bring him back cheap, but he’ll also be very easy to replace if they don’t. Finding a two-down outside linebacker isn’t hard.

QB Josh Freeman

I’m not entirely sure what happened to Josh Freeman, but in his last 8 starts, Josh Freeman has completed 47.8% of his passes for an average of 5.80 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. He was demoted to 3rd string in Tampa Bay and cut despite still being owed a guaranteed salary. He then picked up 3 million from Minnesota, but ended up making just one start, a national televised trainwreck against the Giants in which he completed 20 of 53 for 190 yards and an interception. Sure, he probably didn’t have the playbook down yet, but the fact that the Vikings never went back to him for the rest of the season says something. Many members of the media have suggested there’s something deeper to his struggles, though those in the know seem uncomfortable divulging this information. Whatever it is, NFL teams are likely aware of it as well and Freeman should consider himself lucky if he even gets a chance to compete for a starting job anywhere this off-season.

Cap Casualty Candidates

DT Letroy Guion

Letroy Guion has graded out well below average in a rotational role over the past 2 seasons, including ranking dead last among defensive tackles on Pro Football Focus in 2012 on just 509 snaps. In 2013, he played just 397 snaps behind Kevin Williams and Sharrif Floyd. The Vikings can save 4 million in cash and on the cap by cutting him this off-season so he’s probably as good as gone.

MLB Erin Henderson

Erin Henderson is a decent starting linebacker, but he was arrested for DUI twice this season. He was benched following the first one and is now expected to be cut. The Vikings would save 2 million both in cash and on the cap by letting him go before his contract year next season.

OLB Chad Greenway

Chad Greenway used to be a great player, but he hasn’t graded out above average on Pro Football Focus since 2010 and last season he was Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst ranked 4-3 outside linebacker, struggling in coverage and against the run and missing a league leading 21 tackles. He’ll make 6.5 million in 2014 and count for 8.4 million on the cap, in his age 31 season, so the Vikings could definitely cut him, which would free up 4.8 million in cap space. They may also keep him as a veteran presence if they don’t feel they need the cap space.

TE John Carlson

The 5 year, 25 million dollar deal the Vikings gave John Carlson last 2 years ago was absurd. He caught just 31 passes in 2010 and missed all of 2011 with injury and the Vikings already had Kyle Rudolph. Carlson caught just 8 passes in his first year with the team. This year, with Kyle Rudolph missing time with injury, Carlson had an opportunity to shine, but caught just 32 passes on the season. Carlson could easily be cut this off-season, which would free up 2 million in cap space. With Kyle Rudolph coming back, that’s definitely a possibility. He wouldn’t be worth his 4 million dollar salary as a backup.

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Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 17 NFL Picks, Lions, Uncategorized, Vikings

Detroit Lions (7-8) at Minnesota Vikings (4-10-1)

The Lions are such a frustrating team. They have the talent to be 11-4 right now, but they’re 7-8. The things that are plaguing them, close losses (3-5 record in games decided by a touchdown or less), turnovers (-14), and recovering fumbles (40.00%) are things that usually are inconsistent in the long run, but they seem to consistently plague this team. I make my picks with the assumption that those things tend to be inconsistent (which they do), but it’s not going to work perfectly every time for every team in every situation. I’m hitting about 60% of my picks against the spread on the season, which is almost impossible, but even then I’m wrong about 40% of the time. It’s the nature of against the spread picking.

Their problems might not be fixed until they fire Jim Schwartz and get a more disciplined head coach in this off-season. If they do that, they have the potential to be a very, very good football team in 2014 because, at their best, they’re as good as anyone in the NFL. They might be one of my sleepers as I think forward to 2014. Depending on what happens this off-season, I could see them doing something like what Carolina did this season. They are on the verge of going 12-4, winning the NFC South, and getting the 2nd seed, which is exactly what I had them doing at the beginning of the season. As for this week though, it could be tough to back the Lions again, but there are reasons why they could be a smart bet.

In terms of rate of moving the chains differential, which nullifies the effect of inconsistent things like close losses, fumble recovery, and turnovers, they do rank 5th. They move the chains at a 74.46% rate, as opposed to 68.24% for their opponents, a differential of 6.22%. They have 65 more first downs than their opponents (only New Orleans and Denver are better), 13 fewer punts than their opponents (again only New Orleans and Denver are better), and have scored 43 touchdowns to 22 field goal attempts, as opposed to 32 touchdowns and 40 field goal attempts for their opponents. They are +11 in touchdown margin, which is 6th in the NFL, and -18 in field goal attempt margin, which is best in the NFL. Turnovers are their only problem.

The Vikings, meanwhile, rank much lower, coming in at 30th in rate of moving the chains differential, which shouldn’t surprise anyone given their 4-10-1 record. They move the chains at a 70.45% rate, as opposed to 76.52% for their opponents, a differential of -6.07%. That suggests that this line, instead of being Minnesota -3, should be Detroit -9. That’s too much to ignore, no matter how bad the Lions have been failing to live up to expectations of late. I’m not incredibly confident or anything, but there’s no way these two teams are equal on a neutral field, which is what this line would suggest.

I’m making this is a medium confidence pick for now. Don’t put any money on Detroit +3 yet though as I’m waiting to see the status of both Calvin Johnson and Adrian Peterson before I actually place a bet. Both could be out this week, but both could also play. If Adrian Peterson plays and Calvin Johnson does not, I’ll probably lower this to a low confidence pick, depending on where this line will be. I could also chicken out and drop it to a low confidence pick if Johnson is ruled out, regardless of Peterson’s status, if I change my mind or I don’t like where the line is at that point, but for now I do like the Lions this week, as long as we’re getting a field goal and Johnson plays.

Update: Leaving it at medium confidence. Adrian Peterson is listed as doubtful and Toby Gerhart is out. Calvin Johnson, meanwhile, could play, despite not practicing all week, as he’s listed as questionable and will be a game time decision. Besides, doesn’t the Lions winning a meaningless game convincingly against a bad team after their season is over seems like a very Lions thing to do. They have a ton of talent and could live up to it now that the pressure is off.

Detroit Lions 24 Minnesota Vikings 17 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: Detroit +3

Confidence: Medium

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Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Bengals, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (4-9-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (9-5)

The Bengals lost last week pretty convincingly in Pittsburgh in a surprise loss that really shouldn’t have been much of a surprise to anyone. The Bengals just aren’t the same team on the road. They’ve already lost pretty convincingly on the road to Cleveland and Baltimore (the Bengals needed an improbable Hail Mary to even send it to overtime), but they blew out the Browns in Cincinnati, in addition to the Steelers.

On the road, they are 2-5-1 ATS on the season, 3-5 straight up, and have a -16 point differential. Compare that to at home, where they are 6-0 ATS and straight up and have a +96 point differential, good for an average margin of victory of 16.00 points per game. That includes wins over New England, Indianapolis, and the Aaron Rodgers led Packers. Only one of their home games was within a touchdown (Green Bay). The fact that we are getting Cincinnati as mere touchdown favorites over the mediocre Vikings is a gift and an overreaction to a predictable Cincinnati road loss and a Minnesota home win against the Eagles. This line was at 9.5 a week ago. That’s a huge line movement.

Minnesota’s win over the Eagles was legitimate. It wasn’t fluky or anything. However, this line movement is ridiculous. Teams tend to struggle as road underdogs off of a win as big home underdogs, going 39-55 ATS as road underdogs after a win as home underdogs of 6 or more. That was an emotional upset win for the Vikings and it created a huge overreaction line movement. On top of that, teams are 18-27 ATS off of a win as home underdogs when their opponent is coming off of a loss as road favorites. We’re getting a good amount of line value with the Bengals as a result of what happened last week.

Even if this line was at 9.5 still, we’d be getting line value with the Bengals, who are one of the game’s elite teams because of their defense. Their offense is nothing special, moving the chains at a slightly above average 72.81% rate, but their defense is one of the best in the NFL, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 67.15% rate. Even last week, the Steelers needed a fluky punt return touchdown to propel them to victory. That differential of 5.66% is the 6th best in the NFL and that doesn’t even take into account how much better the Bengals are here at home.

The Vikings, meanwhile, remain a mediocre team. Their offense is fine, moving the chains at a 71.40% rate, but their opponents move the chains at a 76.06% rate against their defense, which is one of the worst in the NFL. Their -4.67% differential is 27th in the NFL. Given that, this line should be somewhere around 13 or 13.5, before you even take into account that the Bengals win the average home game by 16 points per game. This line is way too low.

The Vikings are also in a couple of bad spots here as they have another big game against the Lions up next, which could keep them from being as focused as they need to be for this one. Teams are 53-79 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home underdogs. The Vikings will almost certainly be underdogs at home for the Lions next week. They were 6.5 point underdogs for the Eagles and the week before the odds makers agreed that the Lions and Eagles were basically even, making the Lions 2 point underdogs in Philadelphia. Things have changed since, but not enough to make the Vikings home favorites for the Lions. Also if the Vikings are going to be underdogs of 3 or more next week, which is very possible, they’re in even more trouble, as teams are 37-67 ATS before being home underdogs of 3 or more since 2012.

There’s one reason I didn’t make this my Pick of the Week. I considered it. I really liked the Bengals and the Patriots a lot this week and almost made this my Pick of the Week and the Patriots just a high confidence pick because of Baltimore’s home dominance, but I decided against it for one reason. Matt Cassel is playing very solid football this year, since taking over as the starter, completing 61.9% of his passes for an average of 7.75 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions.

As a result, the Vikings have won 2 of their last 3, with those wins coming against current division leaders Philadelphia and Chicago, with the loss coming by a field goal in Baltimore, a very tough place to win. However, I don’t think this is sustainable. He’ll have to come back down to Earth eventually and what better place to do so then on the road against a very tough Bengals defense in a very tough place to not only win, but even keep it close. It’s enough to keep this from being a Pick of the Week, but I still really like the Bengals this week.

Cincinnati Bengals 27 Minnesota Vikings 10

Pick against spread: Cincinnati -7

Confidence: High

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Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 15 NFL Picks, Eagles, Uncategorized, Vikings

Philadelphia Eagles (8-5) at Minnesota Vikings (3-9-1)

Earlier this season, a stat was floated around that the Eagles hadn’t won in 10 straight home games. They ended their home struggles over their recent three game home stand, by winning all 3, but what got lost in that was how good the Eagles were on the road. Since the start of last season, they are 8-6 ATS on the road. That doesn’t sound like much, but consider they are 2-13 ATS at home over that same time period. This year, now that they are actually good, they are 5-1 ATS on the road, with the one loss coming in Denver.

Nick Foles has been incredible on the road this season. He’s been incredible everywhere, but he’s been especially incredible on the road, completing 70.8% of his passes for an average of 11.09 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. As a result, the Eagles have won all 4 road games in which Nick Foles has led them in passing attempts by an average of 17.3 points per game. Overall, the Eagles are 7-1 on the season when Nick Foles leads them in passing attempts, as opposed to 1-4 in other games.

At first glance, it doesn’t look like we’re getting any line value with the Eagles as 5.5 point favorites here in Minnesota. The Eagles are moving the chains at a 73.56% rate, as opposed to 72.73% for their opponents, a differential of 0.84% that ranks 14th in the NFL. The Vikings, meanwhile, move the chains at a 69.98% rate, as opposed to 76.10% for their opponents, a differential of -6.12% that ranks 29th in the NFL. That suggests this line should be around 4.

However, that doesn’t take into account how good the Eagles have been since Foles took over, how much of a non-factor (at the very least) going on the road is for Foles and the Eagles, and the fact that the Vikings could be without Adrian Peterson in this one. I shouldn’t need to tell you how important he is to this team, but the Vikings are 1-4 ATS without him in his career, with the exclusion of his rookie season.

The Vikings are also in a bad spot because they have to go to Cincinnati next week and might not be focused enough to keep this one close and cover. Teams are 36-71 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2010 and the Vikings could definitely be double digit underdogs in Cincinnati next week, considering they were touchdown underdogs in Baltimore last week. This would be a bigger play if the public weren’t all over Philadelphia, but they should be the right side. I’m somewhat confident as long as this line stays below 6. Philadelphia is also my Survivor Pick this week.

Philadelphia Eagles 31 Minnesota Vikings 17 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Philadelphia -5.5

Confidence: Low

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Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Ravens, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (3-8-1) at Baltimore Ravens (6-6)

The Ravens won at home last week against the Steelers, but did not cover. However, you could definitely argue they deserved to cover. They scored 6 times (1 touchdown, 5 field goals), as opposed to 3 times for Pittsburgh (3 touchdowns) and still could have covered if they had scored a touchdown on a Jacoby Jones kickoff return that Mike Tomlin “accidentally” interfered with. They punted just one time all game.

Failing to cover against the Steelers is nothing new though as they seem to have had their number recently. Since the start of the Joe Flacco/John Harbaugh era in 2008, the Steelers have covered 5 times in Baltimore (as opposed to one Baltimore cover), including 3 times as favorites or underdogs of 7 or fewer. Ordinarily, the Ravens are dominant as home underdogs or home favorites of 7 or fewer in the Joe Flacco/John Harbaugh era.

With the exception of games against the Steelers, who seem to have their number, the Ravens are 18-5 ATS at home as long as they aren’t favored by more than a touchdown. That’s the case here as the Ravens are favored by a touchdown. That might seem like a lot of points, but you could easily argue this line is too low, even before you consider the Ravens’ home dominance and any other situational factors.

The Ravens are playing better football now than at the start of the season. Their defense is still dominant, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 69% rate, and their offense is coming around, moving the chains at a 71% rate. That differential is 11th in the NFL. They’ll be even better if they get Dennis Pitta back this week from injury, which would give them a much needed reliable 2nd weapon, something they haven’t had all season. He’s considered questionable at this point.

The Vikings, meanwhile, are one of the worst teams in the NFL, moving the chains at a 73% rate, as opposed to 79% for their opponents, a differential that is 29th in the NFL. That suggests this line should be around 8, instead of 7. Again, that’s before you even consider the Ravens’ home dominance and any other situational factors. What situational factors are at play here? Well, the Ravens will be significantly more rested than the Vikings. The Vikings are coming off of a 2nd straight overtime game, including a tie and a game that almost went to a tie. That’s essentially 10 quarters of football in a 2 week stretch. I don’t have any numbers that show that’s a huge negative thing because it happens so infrequently, but it can’t help.

The Ravens, meanwhile, are coming off of a Thursday night game, so they’ll have extra rest before this one. Teams generally cover more often than not off of a Thursday night game, going 75-58 ATS since 2008. That percentage is higher when the team has been at home the whole time, for obvious reasons. Teams are 26-16 ATS since 1989 at home off of a Thursday night home game. This is a very cushy spot for the Ravens here, while the Vikings could be running on fumes. Since 1989, teams are 15-7 ATS off of a Thursday night game when their opponent is coming off of an overtime game. The Ravens should blow the Vikings out easily here. They are also my survivor pick.

Baltimore Ravens 24 Minnesota Vikings 10 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Baltimore -7

Confidence: High

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Minnesota Vikings: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Uncategorized, Vikings

Last week: 31 (+0)

Record: 2-8-1

The Vikings blew their chance at a win last week as Green Bay came back to tie it, but it might have been more beneficial to lose that game at this point. Tying essentially locks them out of the #1 pick unless Houston, Jacksonville, and Atlanta can all win one more game. The Vikings probably don’t need to worry about winning any more games though as their final 5 opponents all have .500 or better records right now.

Week 12 Studs

FB Rhett Ellison

RT Phil Loadholt

RE Jared Allen

DT Kevin Williams

CB Xavier Rhodes

Week 12 Duds

LE Everson Griffen

LOLB Chad Greenway

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