Vikings

Minnesota Vikings: 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#29)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Uncategorized, Vikings

Last week: 29 (+0)

Record: 1-5

Some are calling Josh Freeman’s game against the Giants the worst quarterbacking performance in NFL history. I don’t know if I’d go that far or if I have the historical context to determine that, but it was pretty bad. He threw 33 incompletions (only 3 of which were drops) on 20 of 53 passing for 190 yards and an interception against a team that was previously one of the worst in the NFL defensively. ProFootballFocus said his performance graded out as the worst they’ve graded since they started in 2008 and it pretty much broke their grading system. It wasn’t totally his fault though. He definitely deserves a lot of the blame because his mechanics and accuracy looked awful, but he wasn’t put in a situation to succeed by the coaching staff. He had been with the team just 14 days and clearly didn’t know the playbook and understandably so. He deserves a few more starts because he has more upside than Christian Ponder or Matt Cassel, but he’s clearly regressed as a passer since this time last year so I think it’s more likely than not that the Vikings are looking for a new quarterback this off-season.

Week 7 Studs

LE Everson Griffen

DT Kevin Williams

SS Jamarca Sanford

Week 7 Duds

QB Josh Freeman

RT Phil Loadholt

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 7 NFL Picks, Giants, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (1-4) at New York Giants (0-6)

The Giants have yet to win a game this season, but they played their best game of the season last week in Chicago. They moved the ball easily against, admittedly, a Chicago defense that is a shell of its former self thanks to injuries, age, and departed coaches. They still lost the turnover battle by 3, including a pick six that turned out to be the decisive play on the final score. However, turnovers shouldn’t be as big of a problem going forward.

The Giants are a league worst -16 in turnovers, an average of -2.7 per game. That has them on a pace of -43 on the season, which would shatter the modern day record of -30. Even if they are all-time bad (which I don’t think they will be), they could still see their turnover margin cut in half going forward. This type of thing is inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, as teams who have a margin of -4 in a given game average a margin of +0.0 the following game. The same is true for teams who have a margin of +4 in a previous game.

Their poor turnover margin is the result of two things, an unsustainably low fumble recovery percentage and an uncharacteristically high interception rate from Eli Manning. They are recovering just 26.7% of fumbles on the season. That won’t continue going forward. Eli, meanwhile, is throwing a pick on 6.5% of his attempts, a stark contrast from his career rate of 3.4%. I don’t expect that to continue. They are also -30 in points off of returns, thanks to two punt return touchdowns allowed and 3 defensive touchdowns allowed. That probably won’t be an issue going forward.

The Giants still aren’t moving the ball great on the season (66%), while their opponents are moving it at an 80% rate. However, they get by far their easiest opponent of the season this week in the Vikings and they get them off of 11 days rest, after playing the Bears on Thursday Night the previous week. The Vikings are 1-4 on the season and they’ve been every bit that bad.

They have benched both Christian Ponder and Matt Cassel for Josh Freeman, who will make his debut for the team this week, roughly 2 weeks after being signed. That’s not a good sign, especially considering he was completing less than 50% of his passes in Tampa Bay before being cut. The Vikings are also going to be without Harrison Smith in this game, which won’t help matters at all defensively, where they are already allowing opponents to move the chains on a 79% rate.

Of course, the line does suggest that the Giants will get their first win, as they are favorites of 3.5 points, but I think they have a very good chance of covering the spread as well. The Vikings are in a tough spot as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home underdogs, facing the Packers next week. Teams are 49-74 ATS in that spot since 2002. I wish this line was -2.5 or -3, but I still like the Giants to win by about a touchdown.

New York Giants 27 Minnesota Vikings 20

Pick against spread: NY Giants -3.5

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Minnesota Vikings: 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#29)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Uncategorized, Vikings

Last week: 29 (+0)

Record: 1-4

The people who said that Adrian Peterson should not have been playing this week are the worst kind of people. I preemptively tweeted this after Peterson’s 2-year-old was tragically murdered by some psychopath, “If Adrian Peterson plays this weekend, everyone should be fine with that. It’s his son. Not yours.” I hadn’t actually seen anyone of note have a problem with him potentially playing at that point, but I remember what some members of the media had said about the Chiefs’ decision to play after the Jovan Belcher and knew some people would have a problem with Adrian Peterson choosing his method of grieving. And sure enough, Phil Mushnuck of the New York Post had a problem with it, saying, among other things  “it’s sickening the NFL’s latest MVP, hours after his son died — allegedly murdered — declared he was “ready to roll,” ready to play football.” He also inappropriately mentioned Peterson’s “arrest” last summer. I’m not going to give him the page rank boost by linking to him, but Google it and read it if you’re in the mood to be pissed off.

Week 6 Studs

RT Phil Loadholt

C John Sullivan

Week 6 Duds

RE Jared Allen

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Minnesota Vikings extend DE Brian Robison

stevenlourie Uncategorized, Vikings

It’s very interesting that the Vikings chose to lock up Brian Robison, but not Jared Allen, with the bookend defensive ends both set to hit free agency this off-season (along with talented #3 end Everson Griffen and starting defensive tackles Kevin Williams and Fred Evans). However, Robison has actually outplayed Allen since the start of the 2012 season, after Allen’s set the world on fire with a near record breaking season in 2011.

In 2012, Robison graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 14th ranked 4-3 defensive end and Allen ranked 25th. Both were essentially equally good as pass rushers, but Allen was only average against the run and led the position with 9 penalties committed. In 2013, Robison is 13th, while Allen is 21st. Allen actually has the higher pass rush grade, but his struggles against the run are hurting his grade. Allen is an all-time great, but since week 1 of the 2012 season, Robison might have been the better player and he was above average in 2011 as well, his first full season as a starter.

The Vikings are definitely taking a risk that Robison could continue playing well without Allen opposite him, but ProFootballFocus does a good job of taking what kind of blocking you’re facing into account. There’s also no guarantee they lose Allen by signing Robison now, but the chances that they let him hit the open market this off-season do increase with this move.

There’s also no guarantee that Robison continues to produce going forward as he heads into his age 31 season in 2014 and 28 million over 4 years with about 12 million of that guaranteed is a big chunk of change, especially for an under the radar player like Robison. However, Allen is actually a year older and would probably command a much bigger contract. Between the two, Robison is probably the better value. I don’t love the move, but I don’t hate it either and it’s certainly an interesting move.

Grade: B

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 6 NFL Picks, Panthers, Uncategorized, Vikings

Carolina Panthers (1-3) at Minnesota Vikings (1-3)

I can’t quit the Panthers. They’re clearly not going 12-4 like I thought they would at the start of the season. I can admit that because it’s clearly wrong and because I was right about pretty much everything else. But they’re not as bad as they’ve looked. They could easily be 3-1 right now. They are outscoring opponents on the season. They are moving the chains 76% of the time offensively and allowing opponents to do so 72% of the time defensively, the 7th best differential in the NFL. They are DVOA’s #10 ranked team, which is right around where they finished last season. The defensive front 7 has been every bit as good as I thought it would be, though their lack of offensive supporting cast around Cam Newton has been very noticeable and their coaching staff is a lame duck. As bad as they’ve looked, they are not equal to the Vikings, which is what this 2.5 line suggests.

The Vikings are one of the things I’ve definitely been right about. I had them winning 5 games at the start of the season (one team goes from in the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer every season) and they’ve started the season 1-3. Last year’s 10-6 record was largely the product of a non-human season from Adrian Peterson, a strong record in close games (5-0), and some of the best injury luck in the NFL. Now they are 0-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, Adrian Peterson is on pace for about 400 yards less than he rushed for last season, and they’ve had injuries to guys like Kevin Williams, Chris Cook, and Christian Ponder (though the latter hasn’t really hurt). They are moving the chains 71% of the time offensively and allowing opponents to do so 78% of the time, the 4th worst differential in the NFL.

All of the trends favor the Panthers as well. The Panthers struggled on the road last week in Arizona, but they should be more comfortable in their 2nd straight road game. Teams tend to cover in their 2nd straight road game and teams have gone 93-55 ATS as road dogs off of a road loss since 2008, a trend that covers about 65% of the time historically, no matter what year you use to cut off the sample size. Also, underdogs are 57-26 ATS off a loss as favorites before being favorites. The Panthers host the Rams next week and lost as favorites in Arizona last week. Finally, dogs are 76-45 ATS since 2008 before being favorites when their opponent will next be dogs. The Vikings go to the Giants next week. This would be my Pick of the Week this week if I hadn’t already lost twice with the Panthers as Pick of the Week, but I can’t help but love this play.

Carolina Panthers 20 Minnesota Vikings 13 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: Carolina +2.5

Confidence: High

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Minnesota Vikings: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#29)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Uncategorized, Vikings

Last week: 30 (+1)

Record: 1-3

I don’t really have anything interesting to say this week about the Vikings, who went to the land of the redcoats this week for a game of 0-3 teams between them and the Steelers. Instead I’ll talk about how stupid expansion to London would be. The NFL is so much less foreign than leagues like the NBA, the MLB, or the NHL and yet none of those leagues have tried teams abroad (unless, you count Canada). There’s a reason for that. The grueling schedule of the NFL doesn’t help matters.

Week 4 Studs

RG Brandon Fusco

DT Fred Davis

Week 4 Duds

QB Matt Cassel

FB Jerome Felton

LE Brian Robison

MLB Erin Henderson

CB Josh Robinson

FS Harrison Smith

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Minnesota Vikings at London: 2013 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 4 NFL Picks, Steelers, Uncategorized, Vikings

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-3) vs. Minnesota Vikings (0-3) at London

Both of these teams are 0-3 and both of them deserve to be 0-3 the way they’ve played thus far, but I think one team has a better chance of turning it around going forward. Minnesota I predicted before the season started would go 5-11 and right now even that seems optimistic. Last year’s 10-6 record was largely the product of a non-human season from Adrian Peterson, a strong record in close games (5-0), and some of the best injury luck in the NFL.

Now they are 0-3. Adrian Peterson came into this week 5th in rushing with 281 yards on 69 carries, not bad at all, but not what he was doing last season. The 1499 rushing yards he’s on pace for would be the 3rd best total of his 7 year NFL career, but a good 600 yards less than he rushed for last season. 2 of their losses have come by a touchdown or less, after they went 5-0 in such games last season.

Injuries, meanwhile, have been more of a problem. Kevin Williams missed the first game of the season, while top cornerback Chris Cook is expected to miss this game. The absence of Antoine Winfield, one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL last season, has also been felt as their secondary has been a major weakness. They had trouble with Brian Hoyer last week and now without Cook, they could be in a lot of trouble against Ben Roethlisberger, who threw for over 400 yards last week against a much tougher Chicago secondary in a losing effort. And, of course, Christian Ponder is out for this game with a rib problem, leaving Matt Cassel to start. He’s not a noticeable downgrade talent wise, but he has less familiarity with his teammates and the team could just mail it in at 0-3 without their starting quarterback.

The Steelers, meanwhile, I predicted to go 10-6 and make the playoffs this season. That’s one of the few things I’ve been really wrong about this season, but they won’t be this bad all season. While the Vikings seem bound for a top-5 pick, the Steelers could work their way back up closer to .500 before the season is over. They return Le’Veon Bell and Heath Miller this week (Miller played last week, but in limited fashion). They will help shore up their biggest needs on a horrific offense, namely the need for a talented running back and a safety value receiver that Roethlisberger is comfortable throwing to.

The Steelers offense already looked better last week. The Steelers had 21 first downs, 2 punts, and 459 total yards to 15, 6, and 258 for the Bears, but lost by 17 because they committed 5 turnovers, 2 which went for touchdowns, without forcing a single turnover. They are now -9 in turnovers on the season, tied with the also 0-3 Giants for worst in the NFL. Fortunately, that kind of thing tends to be inconsistent in the long run. They won’t recover just 22.2% of fumbles all season. They also can still play defense and it’s only a matter of time before they start forcing takeaways (0 on the season). I also like the veteran Steelers team in London more than the younger Vikings. I expect them to avoid an 0-4 start here and start resembling the Steelers a little bit more.

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Minnesota Vikings 10

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -3

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Minnesota Vikings: 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#30)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Uncategorized, Vikings

Last week: 28 (-2)

The Jaguars might have “won” the Teddy Bridgewater bowl when they lost to the Raiders week 2, but the Vikings might have “won” the Tajh Boyd bowl by losing to the Browns last week. It’ll be interesting to see if they actually pull the trigger on a quarterback early in 2014. Head Coaches are usually very stubborn when it comes it giving up on quarterbacks they drafted in the first round (see Ryan, Rex) and it’s very doubtful that Leslie Frazier gets fired, no matter how badly the Vikings do this season. At the same time, reports have said that the Vikings are closer to benching Ponder than anyone knows. We’ll see what they do.

Week 3 Studs

RG Brandon Fusco

CB Marcus Sherels

ROLB Desmond Bishop

Week 3 Duds

TE Kyle Rudolph

LG Charlie Johnson

RE Jared Allen

CB Josh Robinson

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Minnesota Vikings: 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#28)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Uncategorized, Vikings

Last week: 25

On paper, almost beating the Bears is Chicago looks impressive, but consider that the Vikings lost despite winning the turnover battle, which only happens about 21% of the time. Christian Ponder didn’t have a bad game, completing 16 of 30 for 227 yards, a touchdown, and an interception and he probably kept Matt Cassel at bay for another week, after it was reported before the game that the Vikings were closer to benching him than you’d think. However, he still needed 123 yards on the ground and two return touchdowns to even keep this one close. My guess is he doesn’t finish the season as the starter if the Vikings are already considering Cassel. It’ll be interesting to see if they go quarterback early in the first round. Johnny Manziel might want to consider getting to know the frat party scene in Minneapolis.

Week 2 Studs

WR Greg Jennings

RT Phil Loadholt

RG Brandon Fusco

C John Sullivan

TE Kyle Rudolph

RE Jared Allen

LE Brian Robison

Week 2 Duds

SS Jamarca Sanford

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]