Vikings

Minnesota Vikings: Week 14 NFL Power Rankings (#20)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 14 NFL Power Rankings, Vikings

Last week: 15 (-5)

Record: 6-6

Net points per drive: -0.18 (21st)

DVOA: -4.0% (19th)

Weighted DVOA: -7.6% (23rd)

Studs

RB Adrian Peterson: Rushed for 210 yards (186 after contact) and a touchdown on 21 attempts, 4 broken tackles, caught 1 pass for 10 yards on 2 attempts

LT Matt Kalil: Did not allow a pressure on 31 pass block snaps

RT Phil Loadholt: Did not allow a pressure on 31 pass block snaps

LG Charlie Johnson: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 31 pass block snaps, run blocked for 49 yards on 2 attempts

FS Harrison Smith: 8 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle, allowed 1 catch for 7 yards on 2 attempts, 1 interception

RE Jared Allen: 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 6 quarterback hurries on 47 pass rush snaps, 2 penalties, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 5 stops, 1 missed tackle

Duds

QB Christian Ponder: 12 of 25 for 119 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions, 1 thrown away, 1 hit as thrown, 44.1 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 8 of 30 drop backs (1 scramble, 3 of 7, 1 throw away, 1 hit as thrown)

WR Michael Jenkins: Did not catch a pass on 3 attempts on 27 pass snaps, 1 interception when thrown to

LOLB Erin Henderson: 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 quarterback hurry on 3 blitzes, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist

DT LeTroy Guion: Did not record a pressure on 14 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, no tackles

DT Kevin Williams: 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 33 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle

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Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers: Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 13 NFL Picks, Packers, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (6-5) at Green Bay Packers (7-4)

Aaron Rodgers is normally deadly off a loss, going 14-9 ATS in that situation in his career, including 10-4 ATS since 2009, which excludes 2008, his first year as a starter. However, as favorites of a touchdown or more, he’s just 4-3 ATS in that situation in his career. Besides, I still think the Packers are an overrated bunch. They’re not the same team as they were last year. The best they can hope to be is a team like in 2010, when they got hot at the right time, but they’re not the dominant regular season team they were last year, which is kind of what this spread suggests.

The biggest reason why is injuries. Already missing stud middle linebacker Desmond Bishop and replacement DJ Smith for the season, the Packers have also put starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga and starting rush linebacker Nick Perry on injured reserve recently. Greg Jennings returns for this one, but in limited fashion and he won’t fix their biggest flaws, which are the defense, offensive line, and running game. Defensively, key players Charles Woodson and Clay Matthews have already been ruled out for this one.

In a way, this injury situation is worse than it was in 2010. In 2010, the sheer volume of injuries they had was ridiculous, but they were able to keep key players like Jennings, Matthews, and Woodson healthy all year. They never lost a player as talented and important as anyone in that trio. Matthews’ injury has been the key one since that’s the most recent one. Without him and Perry, they’re getting no pressure on the quarterback and that should continue this week. Those are their starting rush linebackers and their defensive line is once again getting minimal pressure on the quarterback. They rank 29th in the league in pass rush efficiency (sacks + .75(hits) + .75(hurries)/pass rush snaps) and that includes games that Matthews and Perry played.

They were able to rank 2nd in opponent’s scoring in 2010 despite injuries because Matthews, Woodson, and Bishop stayed healthy and because BJ Raji, Cullen Jenkins, Nick Collins, and Tramon Williams all played at a Pro-Bowl level. Jenkins left as a free agent and wasn’t really replaced. Collins had to retire because of injuries. Raji is having a 2nd straight down year. Only Williams is playing close to the level he was playing at in 2010. They’ve added a couple nice young players to the mix like Casey Hayward, but this is nowhere near the defense it was in 2010 so the situations aren’t comparable. They’re not as good as they were in 2010 and they’re certainly not as good as they were last year in the regular season.

Last year, they didn’t exactly play great defense either, but they were able to make up for it with a combination of an incredible turnover differential and one of the best offensive outputs of all time. After going +24 in turnovers last year and forcing 38 takeaways, this year they are just +5 with 16 takeaways through 11 games. Aaron Rodgers, maybe not so unsurprisingly, has been unable to match his record levels of production from a year ago, thanks to injuries on offense and no running game.

After scoring 35.0 points per game last year, they are at just 24.8 per game this year, thanks to injuries to receivers, most notably Jennings, as well as struggles on the ground and on the offensive line, which have only gotten worse with Bulaga out. That might still seem like a lot of points, and it is, 13th in the NFL, but compared to last year and with the team still having issues defensively, it’s enough to knock them out of the ranks as an elite team. They’re not bad at all. I just think they’re overrated.

The numbers back me up. This team is just 15th in net points per drive, though they are 6th in DVOA and weighted DVOA and none of those numbers take into account that their injury situation has gotten worse. Minnesota, meanwhile, is 19th in net points per drive, 17th in DVOA and 18th in weighted DVOA. Using net points per drive to compute real line, this line should be Green Bay -5.5, instead of -7.5, which is a huge deal because -6 and -7 are both key numbers. The fact that Green Bay is better in DVOA than net points per drive nullifies some of that because DVOA is net points per drive based, but takes into account other things like strength of schedule, but it doesn’t take into account current injury situations, so I think we’re still getting line value with the Vikings.

Minnesota is missing Percy Harvin for this one, but Christian Ponder did have a good game against Detroit without him, before face planting against Chicago. He’s an inconsistent rookie quarterback who was heavily reliant on Harvin before he got hurt, so that makes sense, but Green Bay’s pass defense is closer to Detroit’s than Chicago’s, so Ponder might be able to have a bounce back game. The Vikings are also in a good spot as road dogs off a road loss. Since 2008, teams are 83-47 ATS in that spot. Meanwhile, divisional favorites of a more than a touchdown are 2-8 ATS this season. It’s not a huge play on the Vikings, but they should be able to keep this one within a touchdown.

Public lean: Green Bay (50% range)

Sharps lean: MIN 15 GB 3

Final update: That’s a pretty strong sharps lean on Minnesota. This was one of the games I was torn on going to 3 units on. I think I’ll up it to 3.

Green Bay Packers 27 Minnesota Vikings 23

Pick against spread: Minnesota +7.5 (-110) 3 units

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Minnesota Vikings: Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#15)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Vikings

Last week: 16 (+1)

Record: 6-5

Net points per drive: -0.12 (19th)

DVOA: -0.8% (17th)

Weighted DVOA: -3.2% (18th)

Tier 4: Young teams that could make the playoffs, but won’t do much once they get there

Studs

MLB Jasper Brinkley: 8 solo tackles, 5 stops, allowed 2 catches for 11 yards on 3 attempts

RE Jared Allen: 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 33 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 1 penalty, 6 solo tackles, 5 stops, 1 missed tackle

LE Brian Robison: 1 quarterback hit and 4 quarterback hurries on 29 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 stop

Duds

QB Christian Ponder: 22 of 43 for 159 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception, 2 batted passes, 5 drops, 1 throw away, 68.8 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 21 of 46 drop backs (2 sacks, 6 of 19, 1 interception, 1 throw away, 1 drop)

LT Matt Kalil: Allowed 6 quarterback hurries on 47 pass block snaps, run blocked for 22 yards on 3 attempts

RT Phil Loadholt: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 4 quarterback hurries on 47 pass block snaps, run blocked for 22 yards on 3 attempts

RG Brandon Fusco: Allowed 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 1 quarterback hurry on 20 pass block snaps, run blocked for 23 yards on 1 attempt

RG Geoff Schwartz: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 27 pass block snaps, run blocked for 9 yards on 3 attempts

WR Jerome Simpson: Caught 1 pass for 1 yard on 4 attempts on 22 pass snaps, 1.0 YAC per catch, 2 drops

WR Michael Jenkins: Caught 2 passes for 17 yards on 4 attempts on 33 pass snaps, 3.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

CB AJ Jefferson: Allowed 3 catches for 38 yards on 3 attempts, 1 penalty, 3 solo tackles, 2 missed tackles

ROLB Chad Greenway: 7 solo tackles, 4 stops, 2 missed tackles, allowed 2 catches for 17 yards on 4 attempts

K Blair Walsh: 3 kickoffs, 0 touchbacks, 64.0 yards per kickoff, 23.3 opponent’s average starting distance, 1/2 FG (40, missed 30)

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Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Bears, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (6-4) at Chicago Bears (7-3)

Jay Cutler might be the most undervalued player in the NFL. In the last 2 seasons, when he starts, the Bears are 14-5 and score 26.8 points per game. When he doesn’t, they are 1-6 and average just 13.1 points per game. That isn’t all him. For instance, Matt Forte missed a few of those games as well and Caleb Hanie, who started 5 of those games in his absence, is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL.

Still, it shows he has a huge value to this team. He doesn’t put up flashy stats and his body language can be off putting, but the numbers don’t lie. They don’t have a ton of offensive talent. Brandon Marshall is great, but they don’t have another receiver and their offensive line is atrocious. Cutler has done a great job of leading drives in spite of this and he is actually very tough to sack.

I thought they’d survive without him against the 49ers because Jason Campbell is much better than Hanie and because Forte was healthy and because they added Brandon Marshall and because it was a one game absence rather than a morale crushing season ending injury and because the defense was allowing a touchdown fewer per game than last season, but I was totally wrong. Jason Campbell, believe it or not, is actually an experienced backup with some success in the NFL and he looked as bad as Hanie did last year on this offense.

Excluding the Houston game in which he got hurt before halftime, Cutler is now 12-1 in his last 13 starts, with the one loss coming on short rest on the road in Green Bay way back in week 2, which is very excusable. Before Cutler got hurt, this team led the NFL in points differential. One team every year goes from out of the playoffs to a first round bye and the Bears are by far the most likely team to do so. They’ll have to win out, but with Cutler healthy, I don’t doubt that’s possible. Their biggest test the rest of the way is home for Green Bay, in a huge revenge game that could be the difference between them being the 2nd seed and the 5th seed in the NFC.

Given how good they were before Cutler got hurt, I find it kind of strange that people are doubting them. I don’t think you can really hold their last 2 games against them too much. It’s a shame because Houston and San Francisco would have provided huge benchmark games for them if he was healthy, but now I don’t think we learned a ton about them in the past 2 weeks.

However, people seem to think we have. This line was Chicago -6.5 a week ago and now it’s expected to open at -4.5, according the LV Hilton line. Using the rate of sustaining drives differential method, this line should be Chicago -7 and using the yards per play differential method, this line should be Chicago -1.5, which averages out right around -4.5, but those numbers also take into account 1 ½ games that the Bears played without Cutler and a fluky loss in Green Bay. We’re getting line value with them. I think the Bears are an underrated bunch right now.

Those lines also fail to take into account that Percy Harvin will be out for the Vikings. Harvin missed their game against Detroit before the bye and they were still able to win and put up yards through the air and points, but that was against Detroit’s crappy secondary. Christian Ponder is still a young and inconsistent quarterback who could really, really struggle against the Bears’ elite secondary missing really his only weapon in the passing game. This line should really be around the -6.5 it was at last week.

Normally teams struggle after a Monday Night blowout loss. Teams are 12-22 ATS since 2002 off a MNF loss of 21 or more, excluding teams coming off a bye. However, the Bears’ blowout loss was a little fluky because they were missing such a big part of their team and now I think they’re actually underrated because of how poorly they’ve played in the past 2 weeks.

With Cutler back, I like them to get a statement win against the Harvin-less Vikings and win by double digits for the league leading 6th time this season (Houston, New England, and Denver all entered this week at 5, New England went up to 6 and Denver has yet to play). Fun fact: Since 1989, 16 teams have started 7-1 or better and then lost 2 straight, including now these Bears. Excluding meaningless week 17 games, teams are 10-2 ATS after losing 2 straight, including 9-1 ATS as favorites. It’s a small play on the Bears. If the line opens as 4 or less (unlikely) it’s 3 units, anything from 4 to 5.5 is 2, and anything from 6 up is one unit.

Public lean: ?

Sharps lean: MIN 5 CHI 1

Final update: This is unsurprisingly tied for the least picked game of the week on LV Hilton. Why would anyone want to make a pick on this game without knowing if Cutler would start (LV Hilton picks are due Saturday Morning)?

Final update part 2: This line opened at -6 Sunday Morning so there’s pretty much been no line movement or overreaction from last week, which costs us all line value. I still think the Bears bounce back in a big way, but it’s 1 unit.

Chicago Bears 27 Minnesota Vikings 13

Pick against spread: Chicago -6 (-110) 1 unit

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Minnesota Vikings: Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#15)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Vikings

Last week: 19 (+4)

Record: 5-4

Their schedule is still brutal from this point out (as is the case with pretty much the whole NFC North) as they head to Chicago, Green Bay, St. Louis, and Houston, while hosting Chicago and Green Bay. How would you like to play Chicago, Green Bay, and Houston in 5 of 6 weeks? However, it’s good they were able to get back in the win column and break Christian Ponder out of his funk. Percy Harvin is due back after the break and they still have the talent to compete if Ponder can continue to play well.

Studs

RB Adrian Peterson: Rushed for 171 yards (62 after contact) and a touchdown on 27 attempts, 4 broken tackles, caught 3 passes for 5 yards on 4 attempts, 1 drop

LT Matt Kalil: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 36 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 3 attempts

RT Phil Loadholt: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 36 pass block snaps, run blocked for 15 yards on 1 attempt

ROLB Chad Greenway: 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle, allowed 5 catches for 37 yards on 7 attempts, 1 interception

K Blair Walsh: 8 kickoffs, 6 touchbacks, 70.3 yards per punt, 19.1 opponents average starting distance, 4/4 FG (23, 23, 33, 48)

Duds

LG Charlie Johnson: Allowed 5 quarterback hurries on 36 pass block snaps, run blocked for 19 yards on 4 attempts

RE Jared Allen: 1 quarterback hurry on 41 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

SS Harrison Smith: Allowed 3 catches for 58 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

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Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings: Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks, Lions, Vikings

Detroit Lions (4-4) at Minnesota Vikings (5-4)

Like Indianapolis +1 at Jacksonville, this game is one I really wished I would have made a play on last week. Like Jacksonville, Minnesota was a favorite last week in the early line for this game, -2.5, but now they are +2.5 here at home, a massive line movement. If they had been favorites here, we would have had three powerful trends working against Minnesota. For one, they would be divisional home favorites before being divisional road dogs as they head to Chicago in their next game. Teams are 14-47 ATS in this spot since 2002.

Two, the Vikings would have been favorites off a loss as dogs before being dogs. This is the classic sandwich game situation, coming off a loss to Seattle and going into Chicago in their next game. Teams are 57-82 ATS in this spot since 2002. Three, the Lions would have been road dogs trying to avenge a same season home upset loss. Teams are 50-25 ATS since 2002.

The Lions are still in a few good spots, this week, though not as good as if the Vikings would have been favored. Home dogs are 53-71 ATS before a bye since 2002, which is a situation the Vikings are in, including 10-19 ATS if they’re going to be touchdown dogs after the bye. Meanwhile, teams that have yet to have their bye are 4-13 ATS since 1989 as home dogs. That doesn’t happen often, but it makes sense. Teams are exhausted from playing 9 games in 9 weeks and teams that are home dogs tend to be inferior teams. Being exhausted and inferior is a bad combination. Finally, road favorites are 48-29 ATS off a win as road favorites. The Lions won in Jacksonville last week. It’s not as strong, but the trends are with Detroit.

Furthermore, unlike in the Jacksonville/Indianapolis game, this line movement is legitimate, or at least more legitimate, not one where I would be really scared to still take the Lions despite all the action being on them and despite the huge line movement and despite the odds makers getting slaughtered last week (2-12) and needing a bounce back week. That’s why I didn’t make a play on Indianapolis last night. I seemed like a set up.

The reason this line movement is more legitimate is that it’s injury related. Percy Harvin is out for the Vikings and, aside from Adrian Peterson, he’s their only offensive weapon. He’s also an asset on special teams and scored on a return against the Lions in the Vikings’ win over them early this year. Without Harvin, life just gets harder for Christian Ponder and it’s pretty hard for him to begin with.

In his last 4 games, Christian Ponder completed 73 of 126 (57.9%) for 724 yards (5.7 YPA), 4 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, all less than stellar team performances (0-3-1 ATS, 1-3 SU). Unsurprisingly, he had his worst game last week, going 11 of 22 for 63 yards and a pick, when Harvin didn’t play the whole game and was playing hurt. The only reason it was even close against Seattle was because Adrian Peterson went nuts, but as talented as he is, he can’t do it by himself.

That promising start 4-1 with wins over San Francisco and Detroit seems like a thing of the past. That’s another reason why this line movement is legitimate, that and the fact that Detroit is suddenly soaring. Ever since their bye,  they are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS and have been playing especially well since Nate Burleson got hurt, allowing young receivers Titus Young and Ryan Broyles to get more playing time.

We are getting some line value with the Vikings. The rate of sustaining drives differential method says this line should be Minnesota -1, while the yards per play differential method says this line should be Minnesota -2.5. However, that doesn’t take into account Ponder’s struggles, Harvin’s absence, and the Lions’ rejuvenance since the bye. I think this line of Detroit -2.5 is perfectly reasonable and the trends are with Detroit as well. Detroit +2.5 would have been a significant bet, so as long as this line is -3 or smaller, I’m taking the Lions. That’s being said, it’s a small play because this seems like a very bad week to bet on a huge public lean given that the odds makers got killed last week.

Public lean: Detroit (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Minnesota covers)

Sharps lean: DET 22 MIN 3

Final update: Sharps love Detroit more than anyone this week. The Vikings are reeling ans losing Harvin is really like losing a quarterback to most teams. I’ll add a unit.

Detroit Lions 24 Minnesota Vikings 17

Pick against spread: Detroit -2.5 (-110) 2 units

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Minnesota Vikings: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#19)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Vikings

Last week: 12 (-7)

Record: 5-4

In his last 4 games, Christian Ponder completed 73 of 126 (57.9%) for 724 yards (5.7 YPA), 4 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, all less than stellar team performances (0-3-1 ATS, 1-3 SU). The only reason it was even close against Seattle was because Adrian Peterson went nuts, but as talented as he is, he can’t do it by himself. Even worse, their only other offensive playmaker Percy Harvin is likely to miss at least one game with an injury, if not more. They sit at 5-4 still, but they have a brutal schedule the rest of the way, including 5 divisional games against Green Bay, Detroit, and Chicago. Their other two games are in St. Louis and in Houston. That promising start 4-1 with wins over San Francisco and Detroit seems like a thing of the past.

Minnesota Vikings

Studs

RB Adrian Peterson: Rushed for 182 yards (126 after contact) and 2 touchdowns on 17 attempts, 8 broken tackles, allowed 1 sack on 6 pass block snaps, caught 3 passes for 11 yards on 3 attempts

LT Matt Kalil: Didn’t allow a pressure on 32 pass block snaps, run blocked for 43 yards on 2 attempts

K Blair Walsh: 5 punts, 4 kickoffs, 71.8 yards per kickoff, 19.0 opponent’s average starting distance, 2/2 FG (36, 55)

Duds

QB Christian Ponder: 11 of 22 for 63 yards and an interception, 1 throw away, 1 hit as thrown, 1 drop, 51.8 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 8 of 31 drop backs (2 scrambles, 4 sacks, 1 of 2, 1 hit as thrown), rushed for 23 yards on 5 attempts

WR Percy Harvin: Caught 2 passes for 10 yards on 6 attempts on 20 pass snaps, 6.5 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to, rushed for 24 yards on 4 attempts, 1 fumble, 1 kickoff return for 39 yards

TE Kyle Rudolph: Didn’t catch a pass on 1 attempt on 26 pass snaps, 1 drop

MLB Jasper Brinkley: Allowed 6 catches for 55 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts, 9 solo tackles, 3 assists, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

DT Letroy Guion: 1 quarterback hurry on 17 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 1 solo tackles, 2 assists

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Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks: Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 9 NFL Picks, Seahawks, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (5-3) at Seattle Seahawks (4-4)

I think I preface every single one of my picks on Seattle’s game by saying I love picking their games because of their huge home/road disparity. Dating back to 2007, they are 30-14 ATS at home and 16-30 ATS on the road. They’ve lost their last two after an impressive 4-2 start, including wins over Green Bay, Dallas, and New England at home, and now everyone thinks the sky is falling for this team. The sky isn’t falling. They just went on the road.

We’re not getting any line movement away from Seattle from last week to this week, however, because everyone thinks the sky is falling for Minnesota as well. In fact, this line has actually shifted from -3 and -4. However, they may be right when they say the sky is falling for Minnesota. It’s tough to knock a team, especially such a young team, for a bad game on a short week, but, Christian Ponder will need to step it up. In his last 3 games, he’s completed 62 of 104 for 661 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, all less than stellar team performances (0-2-1 ATS).

In spite of that and Seattle’s home prowess, I don’t love Seattle or anything this week because Minnesota has some things in their favor. First, they’re rested. Teams are 114-93 ATS on Sunday after Thursday Night. Second, dogs are 86-49 ATS before being favorites since 2011, including 16-3 ATS off a loss as favorites. Going back to 2008 for a bigger sample size, that trend is 50-21 ATS. They host the Lions next week.

We’re also getting line value with the road team. Minnesota actually ranks better in both yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential than Seattle, ranking 6th and 15th respectively, while Seattle ranks 10th and 20th respectively. Those statistics give us “real” lines of Seattle -1.5 in each instance, though it’s definitely worth noting that the momentum is not on Minnesota’s side. I’m still taking the home team, but it’s a small play.

Public lean: Seattle (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Minnesota covers)

Sharps lean: SEA 7 MIN 7

Final update: No change.

Seattle Seahawks 17 Minnesota Vikings 10

Pick against spread: Seattle -4 (-110) 1 unit

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Minnesota Vikings: Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#12)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Vikings

Last week: 10 (-2)

Record: 5-3

A bad game or the beginning of the end for this young impressive team? I’m going to go with the former because it was on Thursday Night and it’s tough to knock a team, especially such a young team, for a bad game on a short week. However, Christian Ponder will need to step it up. In his last 3 games, he’s completed 62 of 104 for 661 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, all less than stellar team performances. The Vikings to Seattle this week, an awfully tough place to play. They’re still in the playoffs in my mind and one of several candidates to be this year’s team that goes from 5 wins or less to the playoffs, along with Indianapolis and Tampa Bay. We might have multiple such teams this year.

Studs

LG Charlie Johnson: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 43 pass block snaps, run blocked for 11 yards on 2 attempts

C John Sullivan: Didn’t allow a pressures on 43 pass block snaps, run blocked for 29 yards on 5 attempts

WR Percy Harvin: Caught 7 passes for 90 yards and a touchdown on 10 attempts on 36 pass snaps, 13.0 YAC per catch

FS Harrison Smith: 9 solo tackles, 1 assist, 5 stops, 1 missed tackle, allowed 1 catch for 1 yard and a touchdown on 3 attempts

LE Brian Robison: 1 quarterback hurry on 36 pass rush snaps, 3 batted passes, 1 solo tackles, 3 assists, 1 stop

Duds

RG Brandon Fusco: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 32 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards and a touchdown on 2 attempts

WR Jerome Simpson: Caught 2 passes for 37 yards on 7 attempts on 34 pass snaps, 1.5 YAC per catch, 1 drop

ROLB Chad Greenway: Allowed 6 catches for 133 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts, 9 solo tackles, 3 assists, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle

DT Kevin Williams: 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 32 pass rush snaps, 1 missed tackle

LOLB Erin Henderson: 2 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops, allowed 1 catch for 2 yards on 1 attempt

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