Vikings

Minnesota Vikings: Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#10)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Vikings

Last week: 11 (+1)

Record: 5-2

The Vikings’ game last week was pretty boring, but since they’re playing tomorrow night in this week’s Thursday Night game, I’d like to take this opportunity to rant about Thursday Night Football. I hate it. One, it screws up my whole schedule. I like football and writing about football because I can spend the whole week preparing for one day. This whole Thursday thing just screws with everything.

Two, it’s unsafe and Roger Goodell is a huge hypocrite. Players simply can’t be expected to play on 3 days rest like that. The players recently overwhelmingly voted against it and that reason probably had a lot to do with it, but Goodell is intent on squeezing every cent of out of players no matter the cost, whether it’s Thursday Night Football (which increases the NFL’s revenue by 1 billion yearly) or an 18 game schedule. That is unless, you know, they start suing him for concussions and then he has to start pretending he gives a damn. This is the problem with having someone who never played professional football running the show.

Three, it’s crappy football. This is for two reasons. One, on short weeks teams are totally unprepared. The under hits about 60% of the time on Thursday Nights and this year scoring is down 8 points per game on Thursday Nights. If it’s a good matchup, it cheats us out of the opportunity to watch them at 100%. If it’s a bad matchup, it’s even worse and no one wants to see that on National TV anyway. More often than not, it’s the latter because of the NFL’s new “everyone gets a national televised game” thing, which is also ridiculous. If you want a nationally televised game, don’t suck, and if you suck, chances are being on national television for everyone to laugh at is not what you want.

Studs

RB Adrian Peterson: Rushed for 153 yards (104 after contact) and a touchdown on 23 carries, 5 broken tackles, allowed 1 sack on 5 pass block snaps, 2 catches for 6 yards on 4 attempts, 1 drop, 1 interception when thrown to

LT Matt Kalil: Did not allow a pressure on 25 pass block snaps, run blocked for 40 yards on 6 attempts

CB Chris Cook: Allowed 2 catches for 20 yards on 3 attempts, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist

RE Jared Allen: 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 4 quarterback hurries on 39 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

LE Brian Robison: 3 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 6 quarterback hurries on 37 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 5 stops

CB Antoine Winfield: 1 sack on 1 blitz, 10 solo tackles, 7 stops, 1 missed tackle, allowed 9 catches for 90 yards on 11 attempts

Duds

QB Christian Ponder: 8 of 17 for 58 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions, 2 drops, 1 throw away, 45.8 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 10 of 21 drop backs (3 sacks, 1 scramble, 1 of 6, 1 throw away, 2 interceptions)

LOLB Chad Greenway: Allowed 7 catches for 92 yards on 7 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 3 stops, 3 missed tackles

MLB Jasper Brinkley: Allowed 3 catches for 19 yards on 3 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 2 assists, 4 stops, 5 missed tackles

ROLB Erin Henderson: 1 solo tackle, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle, allowed 2 catches for 29 yards on 4 attempts, 1 pass deflection

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings: Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 8 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Vikings

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-4) at Minnesota Vikings (5-2)

As I like to mention every week, the rule of thumb on Thursday Night is to take the home team. Home teams are 68-49 ATS in the history of Thursday Night football. It makes sense. On a short week, all the time to prepare, practice, and rest is incredibly valuable and when you have to travel on a short week, that takes away some of that time and puts you at an obvious disadvantage.

As I often point out, however, this effect is usually nullified when the road team is a favorite. Road favorites generally tend to be more veteran, experienced teams and more veteran, experienced teams also tend to have an advantage in preparation on a short week, for obvious reasons. This effect tends to nullify the effect of having to travel for road favorites. As a result, road favorites are 23-22 ATS in the history of Thursday Night Football. What this does do is give us an even stronger trend with home favorites. Home favorites are 45-26 ATS on Thursday Night.

The one exception to that tends to be divisional home favorites. This also makes some sense. Part of the reason why travelling on a short week hurts you is because it cuts into your time to prepare for the opposing team. Well, if the opposing team is a familiar division foe, this doesn’t have as much of an effect. Divisional home favorites are just 17-16 ATS on Thursdays and divisional road favorites are 8-10 ATS.

This week, we are getting a non-divisional home favorite on Thursday Night, which happens to be the strongest trend of all. You’re the better team. Your opponent has to travel. And your opponent is unfamiliar with you and doesn’t have as much time to prepare for you as you have to prepare for them. Teams in this spot are 28-10 ATS in the history of Thursday Night Football.

However, I’m not as excited to be able to use this trend as I thought it would be. The issue is that Minnesota, while they are home favorites, is also a young team. Both of these teams are young. Given that I believe the advantage favorites have on Thursday Nights stems from them being experienced and veteran and more prepared to deal with a short week, it hurts that Minnesota is a young team. We don’t really know how they’ll react to a short week, even against an equally young opponent.

Minnesota is, in fact, the better team here, so this line of -6.5 is reasonable. Actually, it’s kind of eerie how reasonable it is. I use two methods of determining line value. I use yards per play differential (yards per play minus yards per play allowed) and rate of sustaining drives differential (how often on any given set of downs you achieve a first down or a score minus how often you opponent does so).

I think these two work together well. Yards per play differential overvalues teams that get a lot of big plays, but can’t sustain drives and undervalues methodical offenses (and vice versa for the defense), while the rate of sustaining drives metric overvalues teams that are the exact opposite, methodical, but lack explosion.

Minnesota’s yards per play differential is 0.4, while Tampa Bay’s is -0.2. That translates to a “real” line of -7 (take the difference between the two differentials, divide by .15 and add 3 for homefield). Meanwhile, Minnesota’s rate of sustaining drives differential is 2.8%, while Tampa Bay’s is -2.0%. Take the difference, divide this time by 1.5, and add 3 for homefield, and you get a real line of -6. Average those two and you get -6.5, so there’s not really any line value either way. If there is one way, it’s towards Minnesota slightly, because Tampa Bay is missing arguably their top pass rusher Adrian Clayborn and their top cornerback Aqib Talib, while Minnesota isn’t missing anyone of note.

Two other things work against Tampa Bay. One is how close and down to the wire their game was last week. They didn’t go to overtime with the Saints, but they almost did. Teams are 3-14 ATS on Thursdays after an overtime game. Part of that is being exhausted from playing an extra period and then having to play again in 3 days, but some of that is the mental exhaustion of playing such a close game. The physical exhaustion won’t be as big of an issue this week because it didn’t actually go to overtime, but they could be in a bad spot mentally off such a close loss to a divisional opponent.

The other is just the rate of which underdogs have been covering this year. Dogs are 63-39 ATS on the season. You might think, that’s a reason to take the dog, but eventually that’s going to even out. Dating back over the last decade, dogs or favorites have not finished more than 10 games over .500 over the course of an entire year. It’s smart to ride the correction going forward and take more favorites than dogs, particularly favorites that are not publicly backed because those teams covering would have a double benefit for odds makers. It would allow the dogs/favorites disparity to even out and also they’d make money. In this one, there’s not a significant public lean either way and I think you’d have to be crazy this week to take a public dog (with one possible exception, which I’ll get into later this week).

I tried to pick as many favorites as I could last week. I just didn’t like a lot of them. This week, I do like a lot more, so I’ll pick more favorites this week, starting with this game, even if it isn’t a big play. Last week, favorites were 7-6 ATS, which looks like the start of a correction. It might not look like it totally, but remember, favorites were 12-1 SU. 5 of those covers were backdoor, including two ridiculous ones: Jim Harbaugh’s declining a safety on Thursday Night and the Lions driving for a backdoor cover with 30 seconds left on Monday Night against a 6.5 point spread when they hadn’t scored all night (both went against me on two instances I actually did pick favorites).

I’m afraid to put more than 2 units on Minnesota because they are young, but Minnesota should be the right side. I also, as always, like the under on Thursday Night. Unprepared teams, which teams who play on Thursday Night are, tend to see the negative effects more offensively than defensively. The under is 51-70 on Thursday Night all time. I especially like the under this week because both teams are young.

Public lean: Minnesota (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Tampa Bay covers)

Minnesota Vikings 23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

Pick against spread: Minnesota -6.5 (-110) 2 units

Total: Under 42.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings: Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 7 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Vikings

Arizona Cardinals (4-2) at Minnesota Vikings (4-2)

Wow. Who would have thought when these two teams met week 7, it would be a game of 4-2 teams with potential future playoff ramifications. In a year that has once again been full of surprises, these two are probably the league’s two most surprisingly good teams. However, as I’ve said all along, I believe one team is for real and one isn’t.

When Arizona started 4-0, I called them one of the worst 4-0 teams ever and mentioned that I did the same thing with the Broncos in 2009. The Broncos, much like the Cardinals this year, were one of my preseason picks to be among the worst in the league. After the Broncos started 2-0, 3-0, 4-0 etc, I started calling them the worst 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, etc team ever because of how they were winning. I got some negative comments and hate mail for that. The Broncos started 6-0 that year and ended the season 8-8. The Cardinals could see something similar happen.

So many things pointed to the Cardinals’ early start being a fluke. One, Larry Fitzgerald is their only good offensive player. If numbers are more your thing, this team ranked tied for 27th in the league in yards per play differential through 4 games (they are now 28th). They had won 3 games by 3 or fewer points, giving them only a +30 points differential. Contrary to popular belief, winning close games does even out over time.

This team was 10-1 in their last 11 games decided by a touchdown or fewer. Before that, they were 2-8 in their last 10, with essentially the same group of guys. Teams that win more than 67% of their close games win about 50% of those types of games the following season and the same is true midseason. Teams that win a game by 7 points or less are 586-541 (52.0%) since 1989 in their following game if that game is also decided by a touchdown or less. The only exception, historically, has proven to be an elite quarterback, but the Cardinals don’t have that. I’ve bet against them heavily in each of the last 3 weeks, dating back to a near loss at home to Miami and I’ve been right each time.

Minnesota, meanwhile, is for real. They are 8th in the league in yards per play differential and 7th in rate of sustaining drives differential. Last year, in the 9 games in which Ponder led the team in passing attempts, the team scored 22.9 points per game. Despite their 3-13 record, they had a Pythagorean Expectation of 6 wins, despite injuries to several key players.

Now Ponder is healthy and improved, behind a better offensive line. The coaching staff is finally using Percy Harvin properly and he’s emerged as one of the better receivers in the league. Meanwhile, their defense is much improved thanks to the return of Antoine Winfield and Chris Cook, as well as young players playing better. After ranking 20th in the league in yards per play allowed last year, their young defense has broken out and now ranks 3rd.

They had a setback last week in Washington, but I don’t think their season is doomed because of one bad game. Unlike the Cardinals, their important stats check out. Besides, the Redskins in Washington aren’t an easy opponent. They’ve been competitive in every game this year. The Vikings did manage still control the ball better, with 27 first downs to Washington’s 20. Washington actually punted 3 times to 2 for Minnesota. Washington won because they won the yards per play battle 6.6 to 5.3 and the turnover battle 3 to 1. The yards per play battle means something, but the turnover battle doesn’t much so much given the inconsistency of turnovers. They’re still the favorite to be this year’s team that goes from 5 or fewer wins to the playoffs, although Washington is creeping up on them fast.

The problem is that this line indicates that Arizona isn’t for real and Minnesota is because it’s at -7. If you take the difference between Minnesota’s yards per play differential and Arizona’s and divide by .15 and add 3 points to San Francisco’s side for home field advantage, you get a line of 9.5, which suggests 2.5 points of line value with the Vikings.

However, one issue I noticed with using solely this metric, which a lot of bettors do, is it puts too much value on teams that get a lot of big plays, but can’t sustain drives (or conversely, teams that don’t allow a lot of big plays, but can’t get off the field defensively). Think about it. You pass for 30 yards and then gain no yards on your next 3 plays and have to punt. That’s 7.5 yards per play, which is incredibly impressive, but you didn’t sustain a drive. So I’ve essentially created a new statistic called, rate of sustaining drives, not to replace the traditional metric, but to see if any teams are much better in one than the other.

Basically, how I created it is I took first downs and divided it by first downs + turnovers + punts + failed 4th downs. Basically, what it essentially measures is, on any given 1st and 10, how often does a team get another 1st down or sustain the drive. Turnovers (whether traditional or on downs) and punts are obviously failures to achieve 1st and 10. This measures first downs divided by chances at a first down (first downs + failures to achieve 1st and 10).

You can also do this for the defense, how often they can get the opposing team off the field on any given 1st and 10. The statistic is in the form of a percentage and you can subtract the offensive one from the defensive one to get the differential. For example, Minnesota is at +4.1%, while Seattle is at -0.8%. The difference between the percents is 4.9, divide by 1.5 this time (which conveniently works very well with the numbers) and add 3 points either way for home field and you get a line of Minnesota -5.5. I don’t think we really have line value either way.

It’s also worth noting this line has shifted 3 points since last week, which doesn’t make any sense since Minnesota lost. Arizona also lost and that was bad and they also lost Kevin Kolb, but I don’t think either of those things is worth a 3 point line value. Kolb was leading a miserable offense anyway. Arizona’s defense is still really good despite their recent struggles. Because of that, they should be able to keep this a close game and I like getting 7 with them. Dating back to last year, just 4 of their 10 losses have come by a touchdown or more. As long as we’re getting a touchdown with them, it’s a small play on the road team to cover, but fail to come up with a victory.

Public lean: Minnesota (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Arizona covers)

Sharps lean: ARI 18 MIN 4

Final update: Sharps really like Arizona. I’ll add a unit. Arizona should be able to keep this one close.

Minnesota Vikings 17 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against spread: Arizona +7 (-110) 2 units

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Minnesota Vikings: Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#11)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Vikings

Last week: 11 (+0)

Record: 4-2

Was their loss to the Redskins a bump in the road or a sign that they weren’t for real? I think it’s more the latter. The Redskins are an underrated squad who hasn’t lost to anyone by more than a touchdown. It’s not an easy place to go into and win. Minnesota still ranks 8th and 7th respectively in yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential and remains the favorite to be this year’s team that goes from 5 wins or fewer to the playoffs, though Washington, 16th and 14th respectively in those 2 important stats, is creeping up on them quickly.

Studs

RB Adrian Peterson: Rushed for 79 yards (56 after contact) on 17 carries, 4 broken tackles, caught 7 passes for 50 yards on 8 attempts

LT Matt Kalil: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 64 pass block snaps, run blocked for 1 yard on 1 attempt

C John Sullivan: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 64 pass block snaps, run blocked for 38 yards on 4 attempts, 1 penalty

RT Phil Loadholt: Allowed 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 64 pass block snaps, run blocked for 24 yards on 6 attempts

WR Percy Harvin: Caught 11 passes for 133 yards on 14 attempts on 52 pass snaps, 8.9 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to, rushed for 1 yard on 2 carries, 1 fumble, 3 kickoff returns for 100 yards

CB Antoine Winfield: Allowed 1 catch for 5 yards on 2 attempts, 1 interception, 8 solo tackles, 3 stops

DE Jared Allen: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 29 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 3 stops

K Blair Walsh: 7 kickoffs, 7 touchbacks, 74.0 yards per kickoff, 20.0 opponent’s average starting distance, 4/4 FG (20, 27, 27, 37)

Duds

WR Devin Aromashodu: Caught 1 pass for 13 yards on 2 attempts on 49 pass snaps, 4.0 YAC per catch

MLB Jasper Brinkley: Allowed 1 catch for 30 yards on 1 attempt, 1 penalty, 2 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

LE Brian Robison: 1 quarterback hurry on 27 pass rush snaps, no tackles

DT Kevin Williams: Did not record a pressure on 23 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 2 stops

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Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins: Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 6 NFL Picks, Commanders, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (4-1) at Washington Redskins (2-3)

There’s still no line posted for this for some reason, even though Robert Griffin is widely expected to play, but I’m going to do this write up anyway. Last week, the line was Washington -2 for this game, so I’d be surprised if we got anything lower than Washington -1 or PK. Given that Minnesota is probably going to be a dog in this one, I’m probably going to make a big play on Minnesota.

Washington, assuming they are favored here, are favorites after losing as dogs and before being dogs (they go to New York to play the Giants next week). Teams are 53-77 ATS in that spot since 2008. Minnesota, meanwhile, is dogs before being favorites (they host Arizona next week). Teams are 75-44 ATS in that spot since 2011.

We’re also getting line value with the Vikings. The difference between these two teams’ yards per play differentials is .9. If you divide that by .15, you get 6 and add 3 points for home field advantage, you get a “real” line of -3, meaning we’re getting at least 3 points of line value with the Vikings. In fact, I think the Vikings are still underrated.

Unlike surprise teams like St. Louis and Arizona, Minnesota is absolutely for real. They are 5th in the league in yards per play differential. Last year, in the 9 games in which Ponder led the team in passing attempts, the team scored 22.9 points per game. Despite their 3-13 record, they had a Pythagorean Expectation of 6 wins, despite injuries to several key players.

Now Ponder is healthy and improved, behind a better offensive line. The coaching staff is finally using Percy Harvin properly and he’s emerged as one of the better receivers in the league. Meanwhile, their defense is much improved thanks to the return of Antoine Winfield and Chris Cook, as well as young players playing better. After ranking 20th in the league in yards per play allowed last year, their young defense has broken out and now ranks 2nd. They’re for real and this might be one of the last chances we get to get them cheap and with line value.

As long as Washington is favored or this is a pick, this is going to be a significant play on Minnesota. If Minnesota is favored, it’ll be a smaller pick and maybe even a 1 unit pick. For some reason, this line is Minnesota -2.5 in Las Vegas Hilton, which is why the Sharps Lean 12 to 5 in favor of Minnesota, but that would be a 4.5 line movement from last week and I don’t see that happening, especially since Atlanta was just -3 last week. Stay tuned for a final pick. I hope we get an actual line soon.

Public lean: ?

Sharp lean: WAS 12 MIN 5

Final update: This line finally was posted late Saturday Night at even. Unfortunately, there’s no way of knowing the public lean on such short notice, so I can’t fade the public, but I still feel confident in Minnesota, even though it will be for only 2 units instead of 3 because we’ve lost line value. This spread moved 2 points from last week.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Washington Redskins 20

Pick against spread: Minnesota PK (-110) 2 units

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Minnesota Vikings: Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#11)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Vikings

Last week: 12 (+1)

Record: 4-1

Winning when no one expects you to win is one thing. Destroying a team you’re supposed to beat is another and the Vikings passed that test with flying colors last week, unlike the league’s other surprise team, the Cardinals, who failed that test in back to back weeks. The league’s 5th ranked team in yards per play differential, the Vikings are the overwhelming favorites to be this year’s team to goes from 5 wins or fewer to the playoffs, as no other candidate ranks above 22nd that category. At 4-1, they’ve already exceeded last year’s win total. In fact, the Colts, Rams, and Vikings, the three worst teams in the league last year, all have better records than the Packers, who led the league with 15 regular season wins.

Studs

C John Sullivan: Did not allow a pressure on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 89 yards and a touchdown on 11 attempts

WR Percy Harvin: Caught 8 passes for 108 yards and a touchdown on 10 attempts on 30 pass snaps, 10.8 YAC per catch, rushed for 8 yards and a touchdown on 2 carries

CB Antoine Winfield: Allowed 5 catches for 45 yards on 9 attempts, 1 interception, 6 solo tackles, 2 stops

LOLB Chad Greenway: Allowed 5 catches for 29 yards on 8 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 5 solo tackles, 1 assists, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

FS Jamarca Sanford: Allowed 1 catch for 4 yards on 2 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle

RE Jared Allen: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 45 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 1 assist, 1 stop

DT Kevin Williams: 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 32 pass rush snaps, 2 batted passes, 3 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

Duds

DT Letroy Guion: Did not record a pressure on 20 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackle, 1 assist, 2 stops

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Tennessee Titans (1-3) at Minnesota Vikings (3-1)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 5 NFL Picks, Titans, Vikings

Tennessee Titans (1-3) at Minnesota Vikings (3-1)

If it wasn’t for Arizona, Minnesota would be the surprise team of the year. In fact, I think they have a lot more staying power than the Cardinals. Despite Arizona’s record, they rank 27th in the league in yards per play differential, which I think is more indicative of their ability. Minnesota, meanwhile, ranks 9th in that category. One team every year goes from 5 win or fewer to a playoff spot. Minnesota is the only candidate who ranks as high as they do in yards per play differential. In fact, Cleveland is next closest in 23rd.

Christian Ponder seems to be the most improved 2nd year quarterback. Percy Harvin is now being used properly and has emerged as a legitimate #1 receiver. Kyle Rudolph has stepped up as a complimentary option and Jerome Simpson looked good as well in his first game back from suspension. The offensive line, anchored by 1st round pick Matt Kalil, has been much better and ranks 6th in the league in pass block efficiency.

Meanwhile, their defense is also much improved, thanks to the return for Antoine Winfield and Chris Cook at cornerback from injury and suspension respectively. Both were missed last season. Rookie safety Harrison Smith is playing great football and Brian Robison and Erin Henderson have stepped up big time. Henderson, who has missed the last 2 games with a concussion, is expected to play this week.

However, like Arizona last week, the Vikings could be due for a letdown thanks to a dynamic change. After back-to-back wins as a dog, the Vikings are now favorites. The Cardinals were coming off three straight upset wins, which is a stronger trend (7-13 ATS), but the Vikings are coming off two straight upset wins before being underdogs, which they should be in Washington next week. Teams in that situation tend to see the game in which they’re favored as a breather game. Teams in that situation are 17-32 ATS since 1989.

Speaking of those underdog Titans, they are without starting quarterback Jake Locker in this one. However, I don’t know if that’s necessarily a negative. It’s not a good thing long term, as this 1-3 team would probably rather get their young quarterback reps rather than potentially have a better chance to beat the Vikings this week, but Locker is inconsistent, as young quarterbacks are, while Hasselbeck led this team to a 9-7 record last year. He’s not great or anything, but he can game manage this team. Despite this, this line has still moved 1.5 points from -4.5 to -6 from last week to this week, with Locker going down, which doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. That might not sound like a big line movement, but only 3 games saw line movement greater than that this week, so it’s significant enough.

One difference from last year to this year for the Titans has been defensive play. An 8th ranked defense in 2011, they are currently allowing the most points in the league. It’s easy to point to the loss of Cortland Finnegan as the reason behind that, but there are several others. First, look at the teams they’ve played: New England, San Diego, Detroit, and Houston. That’s 3 top-5 offenses and one top-10 offense. In spite of that, they do rank 21st in yards per play allowed, so they haven’t been awful on a per play basis.

They’ve also been without 2nd year linebacker Colin McCarthy since early in the New England game. Not a lot of people know about him, but he’s a great young linebacker. He’s also a captain and the signal caller. Getting him back should definitely help this young defense (7 of 11 drafted since 2009). The Titans are also in a good spot as road dogs coming off a loss as road dogs. Teams are 59-38 ATS in that situation since 2008. The public, meanwhile, likes Minnesota and I love betting against the public.

It’s not a big play because I do like Minnesota and because I think they’re properly rated according to this line (for those who know the “real” line formula I always mention, the “real” line in this one is -6.5). However, I think Tennessee is the right side. I’m not going to pick them to win outright, but it’s a small play on them to keep this within 6.

Public lean: Minnesota (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Tennessee covers)

Sharps lean: TEN 30 MIN 9

Final update: That is NUTS. Out of 60 sharps, 30 picked Tennessee +6 as one of their top 5 plays of the week, as opposed to only 9 for Minnesota -6. I liked Tennessee before and I like them even more now. I’m adding a unit.

Minnesota Vikings 27 Tennessee Titans 24

Pick against spread: Tennessee +6 (-110) 3 units

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Minnesota Vikings: Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#12)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Vikings

Last week: 12 (+0)

Record: 3-1

The Vikings are still the favorite to be this year’s team that goes from 5 wins or fewer to the playoffs. They are the only candidate even in the top-22 in yards per play differential, ranking 9th. Their defense and offensive line are both much improved. Christian Ponder and Percy Harvin are both having breakout years and Adrian Peterson is making everyone who said the Vikings shouldn’t rush him back because they wouldn’t be could anyway look stupid (me). I guess you never know in the NFL, so you have to get it your all until you’re eliminated.

Studs

RB Adrian Peterson: Rushed for 102 yards (79 after contact) on 21 carries, 5 broken tackles, caught 4 passes for 20 yards on 4 attempts

LG Charlie Johnson: Did not allow a pressure on 31 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 17 yards on 2 attempts

C Brandon Fusco: Did not allow a pressure on 31 pass block snaps, run blocked for 36 yards on 8 attempts

CB Chris Cook: Allowed 2 catches for 22 yards on 4 attempts, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

SS Harrison Smith: Did not allow a catch on 1 attempt, 2 pass deflections, 3 solo tackles

RE Jared Allen: 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 3 quarterback hurries on 58 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops

DE Everson Griffen: 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 28 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 3 stops

DT Letroy Guion: 2 sacks and 1 quarterback hit on 20 pass rush snaps, 2 stops

WR Percy Harvin: Caught 3 passes for 22 yards on 4 attempts on 24 pass snaps, 5.0 YAC per catch, rushed for 12 yards on 3 carries, 1 kickoff return for 105 yards and a touchdown

CB Marcus Sherels: 1 punt return for 77 yards and a touchdown

Duds

TE Kyle Rudolph: Caught 2 passes for 8 yards on 4 attempts on 28 pass snaps, 5.0 YAC per catch

LOLB Chad Greenway: 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 penalty, 1 quarterback hurry on 2 blitzes, allowed 8 catches for 85 yards on 9 attempts

LE Brian Robison: 1 quarterback hurry on 57 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

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Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, Lions, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (2-1) at Detroit Lions (1-2)

I’ve been saying it all along that the Lions are overrated. It’s one of the preseason predictions that I’m proud of. They sit at 1-2, coming off a loss to the Titans with only a comeback win by 3 at home against the Rams. Last year, they went 10-6 despite the league’s 23rd ranked defense because their passing offense was so good. Matt Stafford threw for over 5000 yards and 41 touchdowns and led an NFL record 4 comebacks of 13 or more. They also didn’t finish well, going 5-7 in their last 12, including playoffs, after a 5-0 start

They didn’t fix their defensive problems and they simply couldn’t count on their offense to bail them out at a record rate anymore, especially since Matt Stafford was still a one year wonder coming in this year and one with a history of injures. They also didn’t have a reliable running game to lean on. Stafford hasn’t been bad, but he hasn’t been the quarterback he was last year. Dating back to last year, this team is 6-9 in their last 15. Now Stafford is hurt. He returned to practice today and will play, but an injury, even a hip injury, is hardly a good thing for someone having a little bit of a regression already, especially for a team so reliant on the passing attack.

Defensively, they’ve gotten healthier in the secondary over the last couple of weeks as they now have #1 cornerback Chris Houston back from injury. He played well last week, but the Lions surrendered 378 yards and 2 touchdowns to Jake Locker on a 9.0 YPA clip. They rank 24th in the league in opponent’s YPA. Remember, even though they are healthier now, they weren’t a very good pass defense to start with and they lost starting cornerback Eric Wright this offseason. Louis Delmas is also still hurt, leaving Houston as the only capable starter in a secondary with 3rd round rookie Dwight Bentley, Jacob Lacey, a failed starter in Indianapolis last year, and two veteran journeymen John Wendling and Erik Coleman.

There’s also the issue of their pass rush. They actually rank just 26th in the league in pass rush efficiency, down from 8th in 2011. That was really the only reason their defense was even mediocre last year. It’s unclear if this is something that will continue into the future or if it’s just a fluke, but it’s definitely concerning. Cliff Avril, possibly dealing with the effects of a holdout this offseason, has just 6 pressures, with one sack, on 77 pass rush snaps, while soon to be 34 year old Kyle Vanden Bosch has just 3 with 1 sack on 82 pass rush snaps. He’s looking pretty done. Given how bad their secondary is, they won’t have any chance of stopping anyone if they keep letting quarterbacks sit in the pocket like that. All 3 quarterbacks they’ve played have moved the ball with ease against them, and it’s not a Pro Bowl group of guys either. They’ve faced Sam Bradford, Alex Smith, and Jake Locker.

Christian Ponder should be able to move the ball on these guys with ease as well. The Vikings’ win over the 49ers was no fluke. They rank 8th in the league in yards per play differential and they have a winning record despite no advantage in turnovers +0. The Vikings went 3-13 last year, but had a Pythagorean Expectation of 6 wins and averaged 22.9 points per game, which would have been 16th in the league, in the 9 games Christian Ponder led the team in passing attempts. Ponder has taken a major step forward in his 2nd year in the league, completing 70.1% of his passes for an average of 7.4 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and no interceptions, including 21 of 35 for 198 yards and 2 scores against the 49ers, probably the league’s best defense.

Percy Harvin has emerged not just a legitimate #1 receiver, but one of the best receivers in the league, ranking 3rd in the league in yards from scrimmage by a receiver, now that the coaching staff is utilizing him properly. Kyle Rudolph has emerged as a secondary option. The offensive line ranks 6th in the league in pass block efficiency thanks to some offseason changes and the defense is better as well now that they’re healthier. Every year a team goes from 5 wins or fewer to the playoffs. The Vikings are the favorites right now and by a good margin after other candidates St. Louis, Washington, and Tampa Bay all lost last week. Of the 7 candidates, only Minnesota is even in the top-24 in yards per play differential.

Ponder will also be helped by Adrian Peterson, who has made a miraculously recovery. Detroit actually ranks 13th in the league against the run, but considering they’ve faced Chris Johnson and a probably washed up Steven Jackson in 2 of their 3 games, I think that’s a bit of a fluke. Last year they ranked 30th against the run. Peterson should be able to be a reliable compliment for Christian Ponder and this improved passing game, which should be able to tear up the Lions’ awful pass defense.

Minnesota’s defense is much improved this season, thanks to the emergence of guys like Erin Henderson, who will return from injury this week, and Brian Robison, as well as the return for Antoine Winfield for injury and other factors. Detroit is by far the best passing offense they’ve faced (Jacksonville, Indianapolis, San Francisco) and they will move the chains with some ease, so this will be a shoot out, but I like Minnesota this week.

One trend works in Minnesota’s favor. They’re dogs after winning as dogs before being favorites (home for Tennessee next week). Teams are 35-18 ATS in this situation since 2008. Teams tend to feel disrespected coming off big upset wins if they are still not favored and tend to cover so long as their next game isn’t a hard one that they could possibly be caught losing ahead to. Both Arizona and Seattle covered in this situation last week. Minnesota will be extra motivated to win a statement game here as well because it’s a divisional opponent.

On top of that, I just feel like we’re getting more than 3 points with the better team on the road. Minnesota’s yards per play differential is .5 yards better than Detroit’s and an old handicapping formula says to divide to that by .15 and add 3 either way for home field advantage to determine the “real line.” That suggests that Minnesota should actually be favored by half a point.

It’s more accurate to use that a few more weeks into the season, but it’s worth noting and formula aside, I do think Minnesota is the better team right now and in a better situation, as an underrated team playing to be taken seriously even after a big upset. I’m putting 3 units on this for now and I might add an extra one if I see that the public starts pounding Detroit because I love to fade the public. However, this line was just posted, so I don’t know which way the public is leaning yet. There may be an update to this.

Public lean: ?

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): MIN 9 DET 4

Minnesota Vikings 31 Detroit Lions 27 Upset Pick +185

Pick against spread: Minnesota +4.5 (-110) 3 units

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Minnesota Vikings: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#12)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Vikings

Last week: 26 (+14)

Record: 2-1

The Vikings’ win over the 49ers was no fluke. They rank 8th in the league in yards per play differential and they have a winning record despite no advantage in turnovers +0. The Vikings went 3-13 last year, but had a Pythagorean Expectation of 6 wins and averaged 22.9 points per game, which would have been 16th in the league, in the 9 games Christian Ponder led the team in passing attempts. Ponder has taken a major step forward in his 2nd year in the league, completing 70.1% of his passes for an average of 7.4 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and no interceptions, including 21 of 35 for 198 yards and 2 scores against the 49ers, probably the league’s best defense.

Percy Harvin has emerged not just a legitimate #1 receiver, but one of the best receivers in the league, ranking 3rd in the league in yards from scrimmage by a receiver, now that the coaching staff is utilizing him properly. Kyle Rudolph has emerged as a secondary option. Adrian Peterson has made a miraculously recovery. The offensive line ranks 6th in the league in pass block efficiency thanks to some offseason changes and the defense is better as well now that they’re healthier. Every year a team goes from 5 wins or fewer to the playoffs. The Vikings are the favorites right now and by a good margin after other candidates St. Louis, Washington, and Tampa Bay all lost last week. Of the 7 candidates, only Minnesota is even in the top-24 in yards per play differential.

Studs

C John Sullivan: Did not allow a pressure on 41 pass rush snaps, run blocked for 23 yards on 122 attempts

RT Phil Loadholt: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 41 pass rush snaps, run blocked for 36 yards on 6 attempts

ROLB Chad Greenway: Allowed 5 catches for 20 yards on 6 attempts, 9 solo tackles, 1 assist, 7 stops, 2 sacks and 1 quarterback hurry on 9 blitzes

CB Antoine Winfield: Allowed 3 catches for 28 yards on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 5 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 stop

Duds

RB Toby Gerhart: Rushed for 18 yards (9 after contact) on 8 carries, 3 fumbles, 2 catches for 20 yards on 3 attempts, 1 drop

RG Brandon Fusco: Allowed 4 quarterback hurries on 41 pass block snaps, run blocked for 9 yards on 2 attempts

WR Michael Jenkins: 1 catch for 8 yards on 5 attempts on 32 pass snaps, 3.0 YAC per catch

RE Everson Griffen: Did not record a pressure on 22 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles

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