Vikings

Vikings to be without Erin Henderson this week

stevenlourie News, Vikings

When the Vikings face the 49ers this week, they will be without one of their best defensive players. Linebacker Erin Henderson, my pick for the Vikings’ breakout player of the year before the season, has been every bit as good as I expected he would now that he’s an every down linebacker. ProFootballFocus’ 7th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker, Henderson has 19 solo tackles, 3 assists, 14 stops and has only missed two. In coverage, he’s allowed 9 catches for 103 yards and a touchdown on 15 attempts, and he’s impressed as a blitzer too, with 2 sacks and a quarterback hit on 12 blitzes. He’s also been penalized once. However, after sustaining a concussion the Vikings have ruled him out for this week.

This puts the Vikings at even more of a disadvantage on paper, but they should still be able to give the 49ers a good game. Christian Ponder seems to be the only 2nd year quarterback who is actually improved over his rookie year, completing 47 of 62 for 515 yards and 2 touchdowns through 2 games, including 12 of 20 on throws that go longer than 10 yards through the air, which was an issue for him as a rookie (44 of 108). The coaching staff is using Percy Harvin properly this year and he’s become a legitimate #1 receiver and his offensive line is much improved over last year. Remember, last year, in the 9 games in which he led the team in passing attempts, the team scored 22.9 points per game, which would have been 16th in the league.

The 49ers, meanwhile, could be in a breather game situation, coming off two huge wins and having finally been anointed the best team in the league, with another tough test in New York against the Jets next week. The Vikings have the talent to take advantage of that. In terms of points per play differential, which is my favorite stat and one that I think best predicts future success, the Vikings rank 5th through 2 games, while the 49ers stand at 8th. Obviously, schedule has a lot to do with that as the 49ers have faced two playoff teams from 2011 and the Vikings have faced the Jaguars and Colts, but the Vikings are still better than they’re being given credit for. As 7.5 point underdogs, expect them to be able to cover at home.

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San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, 49ers, Vikings

San Francisco 49ers (2-0) at Minnesota Vikings (1-1)

The 49ers have been the best team in the league over the first two games. As a result, they’ve been atop almost every Power Ranking I’ve seen. It’s a very interesting dynamic. This is the prototypical “nobody believes in us” team. Before last year, they were seen as an also ran. The hadn’t had a winning season in almost a decade, Alex Smith was still their quarterback, and as promising as Jim Harbaugh seemed, he had just 7 weeks with the team because of the lockout. Even as they started to get some early season wins, everyone just assumed they’d eventually go away, but they didn’t. It wasn’t until November that they were really seen as a legitimate contender and even then, no one gave them much of a chance to win the Super Bowl because Alex Smith was still their quarterback. They didn’t, falling flat offensively in a loss to the Giants in the NFC Championship game.

Heading into 2012, they were once again being doubted as many people, including yours truly, felt they couldn’t keep it up. So what did they do? They won their first 2 games, both against 2011 playoff teams, including an upset victory in Lambeau Field, and they did it by holding two of the most prolific offenses in the league last year to a combined 41 points. Finally, everyone believes in them. How will they respond?

Not only that, how will they respond now that they’re facing the “lowly” Vikings? Every team has an off week and is flat at some point. Jim Harbaugh is an amazing Head Coach, but so is Bill Belichick. Belichick has been doing what Harbaugh’s done for the past year or so for about 10 and last week his Patriots lost at home to the Cardinals. It makes sense that the 49ers would be flat here, coming off two huge wins and having been finally anointed the best team in the league (before actually winning much substantial), against a team perceived as terrible. Their schedule doesn’t get any easier as they head to New York to play the Jets on the East Coast at a 1 o’clock start next week. This isn’t a true breather game (favorites before and after being dogs), but along those same lines, they could be flat here.

Meanwhile, the Vikings aren’t as bad as people think. In terms of points per play differential, which is my favorite stat and one that I think best predicts future success, the Vikings rank 5th through 2 games, while the 49ers stand at 8th. Obviously, schedule has a lot to do with that as the 49ers have faced two playoff teams from 2011 and the Vikings have faced the Jaguars and Colts, but the Vikings are still better than they’re being given credit for.

Christian Ponder seems to be the only 2nd year quarterback who is actually improved over his rookie year, completing 47 of 62 for 515 yards and 2 touchdowns through 2 games, including 12 of 20 on throws that go longer than 10 yards through the air, which was an issue for him as a rookie (44 of 108). The coaching staff is using Percy Harvin properly this year and he’s become a legitimate #1 receiver and his offensive line is much improved over last year. Remember, last year, in the 9 games in which he led the team in passing attempts, the team scored 22.9 points per game, which would have been 16th in the league. The 49ers probably have the league’s top defense, but if they’re flat, the Vikings can move the ball on them some.

I’m not going to pick the Vikings to win or anything, but they should be able to cover the 7.5 points here at home. The 49ers offense isn’t built to blow people out (one of the reason why I didn’t bet heavily on them as 7 point home favorites against Detroit last week, even though I thought they had the clear match up advantage) and the Vikings have played well in the 4th quarter of each of their first 2 games, scoring 23 points in that quarter, 6th in the league. Even if the Vikings don’t play the 49ers close in Minnesota, there’s a good chance they could mount a backdoor cover.

Road favorites of more than a touchdown in general don’t cover at a high rate, going 78-98 ATS since 2002. There have been two such instances this season, Philadelphia at Cleveland and Houston at Jacksonville (the former didn’t cover on the road, the latter did). I’ve bet on the road team in both instances because I really didn’t like the match up for the home team, but I made sure to keep both bets small.

This week, I do like the match up for the home team. They’re better than you think and this is a huge statement game for them, while the 49ers could be flat in a breather game, and there’s also a strong possibility of a backdoor cover given how the 49ers aren’t built to blow teams out and how the Vikings have done a lot of scoring in the 4th quarter this season. On top of this, the public is betting heavily on San Francisco and I like to go against the public every chance I get (the public is 13-19 this year and getting killed in games like this where a ton of the action is on one side).

Public lean: San Francisco (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Minnesota covers)

San Francisco 49ers 20 Minnesota Vikings 16

Pick against spread: Minnesota -7.5 (+120) 3 units

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Minnesota Vikings: Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#26)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Vikings

Yards per play differential is my favorite measure of how a team’s played and the Vikings actually rank 5th in that statistic through 2 games, despite sitting at 1-1. Level of competition is obviously a factor, playing Jacksonville and Indianapolis, but Christian Ponder seems to be the only 2nd year quarterback who is actually improved over his rookie year, completing 47 of 62 for 515 yards and 2 touchdowns through 2 games, including 12 of 20 on throws that go longer than 10 yards through the air, which was an issue for him as a rookie (44 of 108). The coaching staff is using Percy Harvin properly this year and he’s become a legitimate #1 receiver and his offensive line is much improved over last year. Again level of competition is a factor there, but the Vikings get a real benchmark game this week against the San Francisco 49ers in Minnesota. Even if they don’t win, if they keep it close and stay competitive, people will start having to take them more seriously.

Studs

LT Matt Kalil: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 46 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 6 yards on 1 attempt

C John Sullivan: Did not allow a pressure on 46 pass block snaps, run blocked for 26 yards on 9 attempts

WR Percy Harvin: Caught 12 passes for 104 yards on 13 attempts on 39 pass plays, 5.9 YAC per catch, 2 carries for 13 yards

LOLB Erin Henderson: Allowed 3 catches for 42 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 9 solo tackles, 1 assist, 7 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 sack on 5 blitzes

SS Harrison Smith: Allowed 2 catches for 16 yards on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops

ROLB Chad Greenway: Didn’t allow a catch on 2 attempts, 6 solo tackles, 2 assists, 4 stops, 1 quartberack hurry on 7 blitzes

K Blair Walsh: 5 kickoffs, 4 touchbacks, 73.4 yards per kickoff, 19.2 opponent average starting distance, 2/2 FG (29, 51)

Duds

RT Phil Loadholt: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 4 quarterback hurries on 46 pass block snaps, 2 penalties

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Minnesota Vikings at Indianapolis Colts: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Colts, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (1-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1)

Before the season started, I identified 5 teams I thought were overrated and 5 I thought were underrated. The idea was to bet these teams (or against these teams) until I was proven wrong or until the odds makers caught up. It served me well last week. Of the 7 games involving these 10 teams, I nailed 5, including my pick of the week. I unfortunately went 3-6 on my other 9 to finish at .500 for the week ATS, but it’s good to see that my overrated/underrated choices seem to have been pretty accurate. I’ll try to use those this week, unless I feel the odds makers caught up, with two exceptions (San Francisco and Buffalo, two I got wrong last week).

Here, I don’t really feel the odds makers caught up and there’s a good reason for that. Cincinnati got blown out last week, as I predicted they would, but they did it against Chicago. Chicago is also one of my underrated teams. In fact, I think they might be the best team in football. In 2010, they went 11-5 and made it to the NFC Championship game. In 2011, they started out 7-3 before injuries struck to Jay Cutler and Matt Forte. Cutler and Forte are back. Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery are in and both had great debuts. And their offensive line doesn’t look as overmatched as they did under Mike Martz, allowing Cutler to be pressured on just 11 of 37 drop backs. And then, of course, they still have one of the league’s better defenses.

There’s no shame in losing to the Bears in Chicago, even in blowout fashion. That doesn’t mean the Colts are going to have a terrible season. They’ll probably still get at least the 6 wins the Panthers got last year. Andrew Luck is the real deal; he just had a very tough test to start his career. They won’t make the playoffs or anything and Dwight Freeney is expected out for this contest, but, at the very least they’re not worse than the Vikings, who needed a late comeback to even beat the Jaguars in Minnesota. In Indianapolis, this line should be about -3 or -4 (3 points for home field advantage. Instead it’s +1.5. Ordinarily, I would think this could be a trap line, but the action is pretty equal on both sides. There’s just considerable line value with the Colts.

The Vikings don’t really deserve to be road dogs over anyone. I’ve mentioned before that teams that finished with 6 or fewer wins cover at about a 30% rate as favorites of 6 or more. Well, the Vikings aren’t favorites of 6 or more, but they’re road favorites of 1.5, which would translate to -7.5 in Minnesota. The trend isn’t as strong in this situation, but the logic is the same; they’re just not good enough to be favored on the road over anyone.

On top of that, this could be a seen as a breather contest for the Vikings, seeing as they have to go home and play the 49ers next week. The trend isn’t as strong as it is for sandwich games (favorites before AND after being dogs), but favorites before being dogs are 90-109 ATS since 2010 and 173-223 ATS since 2008. This makes sense. Teams can’t bring the same level of intensity every week in the NFL. It just doesn’t happen; that’s why upsets happen. Teams are typically flatter in easier games before tougher games.

This is one of my favorite plays of the week. I’m pretty confident that Luck will get his first NFL win here at home against a Minnesota defense that just made Blaine Gabbert look like a functional NFL quarterback. Instead of putting 4 units on the spread +1.5 (-110) and one on the money line at +110, I’m putting all 5 on the money line. 1 point games account for about 2% of games in the NFL, so it’s just not worth the extra +20 to protection against a 1 point Minnesota win.

Public lean: Minnesota (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Indianapolis covers)

Indianapolis Colts 27 Minnesota Vikings 20 Upset Pick +110 5 units

Pick against spread: Indianapolis +1.5 (-110) 0 units

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Minnesota Vikings: Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#26)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Vikings

Last week: 26 (+0)

Record: 1-0

How about that? The Vikings had the league’s worst record in games decided by a touchdown or less last season, going 2-9, and in their opener, they lead a comeback drive and win by 3 in overtime. That type of thing is unpredictable on a yearly basis, so that fact only should boost this team up a few wins from the 3 wins they had last season. They also have some nice young talent, but they play in way too tough of a division to compete in this season. Besides, a comeback home victory in overtime over Jacksonville is hardly impressive.

Studs

LG Charlie Johnson: Allowed 0 sacks, quarterback hits, or quarterback pressures on 31 pass block snaps, run blocked for 23 yards on 3 attempts

C John Sullivan: Allowed 0 sacks, quarterback hits, or quarterback pressures on 31 pass block snaps, run blocked for 55 yards and a touchdown on 8 attempts

RG Brandon Fusco: Allowed 0 sacks, quarterback hits, or quarterback pressures on 31 pass block snaps, run blocked for 24 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts

WR Percy Harvin: 6 catches for 84 yards on 8 targets, 12.8 YAC per catch on 25 pass plays

LE Brian Robison: 3 quarterback hits and 6 quarterback pressures on 44 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop on 30 run snaps

CB Antoine Winfield: 2 completions for 11 yards on 3 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops on 34 run snaps, 1 quarterback pressure on 1 blitz

K Blair Walsh: 4/4 on field goals (20, 38, 42, 55), including one to send it to overtime, and one to go ahead in overtime

Duds

TE Kyle Rudolph: 1 quarterback pressure on 5 pass block snaps, run blocked for 12 yards on 6 attempts, 5 catches for 67 yards on 7 attempts, 1 drop, 7.2 YAC per catch

RE Jared Allen: 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback pressure on 41 pass rush plays, 1 solo tackle and 1 stop on 32 run snaps, 1 penalty

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Vikings expect Adrian Peterson to play, but will limit his carries

stevenlourie News, Vikings

The Vikings and the Jaguars have two of the best running backs in the NFL, Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew. However, when those two teams meet in Minnesota this week, neither of those two aforementioned backs figure to have much of an impact. Maurice Jones-Drew will be limited to 3rd down work about a week after returning from his 38 day holdout, while Adrian Peterson is about 9 months removed from a torn ACL. The Vikings expect him to play, but he’ll be limited to a backup role behind capable back Toby Gerhart until he gets his legs back under him.

Adrian Peterson’s speedy recovery from such a severe injury is impressive, but maybe not even surprising from someone like Peterson and it’s not unprecedented either. Wes Welker returned for week 1 from a similar injury for the 2010 season after just 8 months. However, it’s worth noting that Welker was not his normal self that year. He caught just 86 passes for 848 yards, both his lowest totals in his 5 year career with the New England Patriots. It’s unrealistic to expect Peterson to be his normal self until at least the 2nd half of the season (Welker’s 2nd half stats were much better as he caught 42 passes for 493 yards), if at all this season.

For that reason and others, it’s a bit head scratching why the Vikings are bringing him back so soon. Toby Gerhart is a capable runner who should be able to carry the load until Peterson is fully healthy and truly ready to play and the Vikings probably aren’t going to be competitive this year either way. This is a team built for the future and Peterson, still only 27, is expected to be a big part of it. They can’t afford to risk him reinjuring himself. Besides, he still has about 28 million guaranteed on his contract after the season as his massive extension just kicked in. They want to make sure they get the most out of that money.

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Minnesota Vikings Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Vikings

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0) at Minnesota Vikings (0-0)

Buy tickets for this game

I didn’t have the Vikings listed as one of my underrated teams in the league, but maybe I should have. They had incredibly bad luck during their 3-13 season last year, going 2-9 in games decided by a touchdown or less and had the point differential of a team that should have won 5 or 6 games. A full season of Christian Ponder (who didn’t take over until a few weeks into the season and then got hurt) will also help. In the 9 games in which he led the team in passing attempts, the team scored 22.9 points per game, which would have been 16th in the league last season. He should be improved in his 2nd year in the league and also gets a new left tackle, Matt Kalil, which will really help him.

The Jaguars also have a 2nd year quarterback in Blaine Gabbert, but he looked like much more of a lost cause last year. He might have looked alright during stretches in the preseason, but that’s the preseason so it doesn’t mean a whole lot. If I had to pick one of these two 2nd year quarterbacks to improve this season, it’d be Ponder. Justin Blackmon and Laurent Robinson won’t help Gabbert as much as people seem to think. Blackmon is a mere rookie and rookie receivers tend to struggle, even 1st rounders.

Discounting Jones and Green, since the 2005 NFL Draft, 22 receivers have gone in the 1st round of the NFL Draft. In their rookie years, they have averaged 37 catches for 524 yards and 3 touchdowns. And this is not a group of busts. This group includes, among others, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Michael Crabtree, Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, Jeremy Maclin, Kenny Britt, Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, Robert Meachem, Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards, and Roddy White. The leader in rookie production among those 22, strangely Dwayne Bowe, who caught 70 passes for 995 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2007.

That just proves how special Julio Jones’ and AJ Green’s rookie years were, but I don’t see that happening for Blackmon. It’s too improbable. Jones and Green also had the luxury of facing SEC defenses in college, the closest thing you’ll get to NFL caliber defenses in college, while Blackmon shredded the Big 12, which isn’t nearly as close. Robinson meanwhile, really struggled this offseason and preseason, which makes sense since at this time last year he was a final cut of the Chargers. He was the prototypical one year wonder signing and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he didn’t do anything of note this year.

Any improvement Gabbert and the passing game makes will be nullified by a decline in their running game. Maurice Jones-Drew accounted for 47.7% of the team’s yards from scrimmage last season, the most since OJ Simpson was not only a free man, but still playing football. Simpson set the record in 1974. However, the combination of his holdout and his high level of usage over the past 3 years suggests, at least, a slightly down year from MJD this year and he could definitely do his best 2011 Chris Johnson impression. Even if he doesn’t, he’ll barely play in this one as he works his way back. Rashad Jennings is a nice back, but he won’t be able to replace everything MJD did for them last year in this game.

The Vikings are also missing a stud running back as Adrian Peterson looks like he’ll be a game time decision roughly 9 months roughly from a torn ACL. Even if he does play, it’ll be as a backup to Toby Gerhart. Gerhart, like Jennings, is a nice back, but he’s not Adrian Peterson. The positive thing for the Vikings is that AP isn’t as much of their offense as MJD was for the Jaguars last year. The Vikings figure to be an improved team this year, while the Jaguars could be even worse.

In the last 6 seasons (2006-2011), only one team, Derek Anderson, Brady Quinn and the 2009 Cleveland Browns, had fewer yards than the Jaguars did last year (2076). Even the Jimmy Clausen led Panthers in 2010 had more yards. Gabbert was that bad. In a passing league, that is not a recipe for winning games. Since 2006, 21 teams have averaged 6.0 YPA or worse. Of those 21 teams, 19 won 5 or fewer games, none won more than 7 and as a group they averaged 3.9 wins per season and 14.8 points per game. In order for the Jaguars to have averaged 6.1 YPA last year, on 469 attempts, they would have had to throw for 2861 yards, 682 more than they actually did. They may improve this year, but I don’t think they’ll improve that much.

And yet, this line essentially says these two are even (3 points is standard for home field advantage), which I don’t think is true. I also don’t like this matchup for the Jaguars. The Vikings’ back 7 is pretty bad in coverage, which is why they ranked 30th against the pass, allowing 8.1 YPA last year, despite 50 sacks. However, Blaine Gabbert really struggles with pressure in his face and the Vikings can pressure the quarterback as well as any team in the league.

Gabbert ranked 2nd worst in the NFL with a 52.9% accuracy percentage under pressure (discounts drops, throw aways, spikes, batted passes, and hit as throwns) and worst in the NFL taking a sack on 26.1% of his pressured drop backs. Unless he is a dramatically different quarterback in the face of pressure from last year to this year, he doesn’t figure to be able to take advantage of Minnesota’s poor back 7 in coverage. The Vikings 6th ranked run defense from 2011 should be able to stop Jennings and the Jaguars will have trouble moving the football. Ponder, meanwhile, won’t against a Jacksonville defense missing top cornerback Derek Cox and top linebacker Daryl Smith with injury.

Minnesota Vikings 23 Jacksonville Jaguars 10

Pick against spread: Minnesota -4 (-105) 2 units

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Vikings’ Adrian Peterson on pace to play week 1

stevenlourie News, Vikings

Adrian Peterson will not see any preseason action this year. However, he still remains on pace to play week 1, less than 9 months after he tore his ACL last December. Peterson, obviously one of the league’s fastest healers, has been activated off the PUP and practicing for over a week now, after months of looking impressing doing side work, and has had no swelling in the surgical repaired knee. He’s expected to be cleared for contact next week.

There is precedent for this type of recovery from injury as Wes Welker recovered from a torn ACL in roughly 8 months for the 2010 season. However, Welker was pretty bad in 2010, especially by his standards, catching 86 passes for 848 yards and 7 touchdowns. Aside from that year, his worst season in a Patriots uniform was 2008, when Matt Cassel was the quarterback and Welker caught 111 passes for 1165 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Peterson also won’t see nearly as many carries as he normally does, even if he does play week 1. Peterson has carried the ball 19.3 times per game in his career, 308 times per 16 games. However, the Vikings will want to be cautious with him, especially early in the season. They aren’t legitimate contenders this season so the emphasis will obviously be more on getting the old Peterson back for 2013, rather than getting all they can get out of him in 2012. Backup Toby Gerhart will see a good amount of carries behind him for the first 4-8 games of the season and may even begin the season as the starter. At his current ADP of 13th overall, Peterson is really being overdrafted in fantasy leagues.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Minnesota Vikings Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Erin Henderson

stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, Vikings

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is the part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Minnesota Vikings, that player is outside linebacker Erin Henderson.

Erin Henderson was only a two down run stuffing linebacker last year and came off the field in sub packages when they used only two linebackers, meaning he was not asked to cover much. Henderson, however, did an amazing job against the run. Despite limited playing time, he ranked 4th at his position with a 21.8 rating on ProFootballFocus, including 3rd against the run.

Playing only 590 snaps last season, he ranked 15th at his position with 58 solo tackles and 13th with 38 stops (solo tackles that constitute an offensive failure) and he only missed 5 tackles. Playing 267 run snaps, he led his position with a run stop rate of 11.6% (31 stops on 267 run snaps, his other 7 stops were on coverage snaps) and he ranked 4th at his position in tackling efficiency (missed tackles per attempted tackle) with 5 missed tackles on 74 attempted tackles (58 solo, 11 assists, 5 missed).

He’ll be counted on in more of a 3 down role this year with his brother EJ Henderson gone. His EJ played 895 total snaps last year, 369 of which were run defense snaps and 464 of which were coverage snaps. If Erin does that this season, and maintains his 2011 rate, he’d have 59 solo tackles, 43 stops, 12 assists, and 4 missed tackles on run snaps and 24 solo tackles, 11 stops, and 3 assists and 3 missed tackles on coverage snaps, giving him 83 solo tackles, 54 stops, 15 assists, and 7 missed tackles overall. If he had done that last year, he would have ranked 8th, tied for 4th, and tied for 8th solo tackles, stops, and assists respectively at his position.

Coverage is the one question for him though. He wasn’t bad in coverage last year, grading out at above average in coverage last season; he just doesn’t have a lot of experience in it, as he spent his only year as a starter as just a two-down run stuffer. However, for what experience he did have in coverage last year, he actually graded out 5th at his position on ProFootballFocus in coverage. He allowed 22 completions on 29 attempts (75.9%), but only for 167 yards (5.8 YPA) and he ranked 6th allowing just 0.71 yards per coverage snap. If he can adjust to playing an every down workload, he should be one of the best all around linebackers in the game in 2012 and, if recognized, he should push for the Pro-Bowl.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

Kyle Rudolph shining for Vikings in John Carlson’s absence

stevenlourie News, Vikings

Kyle Rudolph was a 2nd round pick in the 2011 NFL Draft and he is reportedly having a very strong Training Camp. Meanwhile, #2 tight end John Carlson could miss a large portion of the preseason. If Rudolph had even the 70 targets that Visanthe Shiancoe, the incumbent starter who is gone, had last season, he would have had 47 catches for 450 yards and 5 touchdowns. Heading into his 2nd season in the league, with possibly improved quarterback play, he could exceed those numbers and end up being the 2nd leading receiver on a weak receiving corps.

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